000
FXUS66 KLOX 230000 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE BENEATH THE HIGH WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A
COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. WINDS
AT KSDB AND SOME SITES THROUGH AND BELOW THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE ARE
INCREASING AT THIS HOUR. WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
EVENING AS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
SANTA MONICA RANGE TONIGHT. 18Z SOLUTIONS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED THE
WINDS OVER THESE AREAS.

NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...AND THE FLOW PATTERN
SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST AS COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE DESERT AND SLAMS
UP AGAINST THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT WILL SET UP DEVELOPING A SANTA ANA FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. KLAX-KDAG SURFACE GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FROM THE 18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM-
WRF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT PACKAGE
INDICATES CURRENTLY FOR MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
SANTA ANA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE.
WITH MONDAY HAVING A GOOD POSSIBLY FOR BETTER MIXING DUE TO
WINDS...BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WILL WORK OUT FINE THOUGH.

THE EVENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...WITH WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE EVENT
COULD BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY WEDNESDAY. NAM-WRF
AND GFS 850 MB THERMAL AND SURFACE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. 850MB WINDS
ALSO INCREASE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...TO 30 T0 35 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SITUATION HAS CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND CLOSE
MONITORING BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY-SUNDAY)...MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY...AND A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS VARY IN STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF
THE TROUGH FROM RUN-TO-RUN...ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OCCURRING NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT. SKY COVER
WAS INCREASED AND SOME MARINE LAYER WAS ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND
18Z MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT KSBA.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THERE
IS CHANCE THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEIER/HALL
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KMTR 222341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
248 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS
RESULTED IN ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE AT KSFO TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION AT KSTS. MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY WARM AROUND 9 DEGREES CELSIUS SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL INTO THE FROST FREEZE RANGE.

DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE LIMITING THE OCEANS
INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND
1800 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THEY HAVE ON PAST MODEL RUNS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
THE GFS SOLUTION IS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS COMING MORE IN-LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE
BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE MRY BAY AREA. ONLY LOW CEILINGS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. LOW CEILINGS ARE CLEARING IN THE SFO BAY AREA
WHILE SPREADING INTO THE MRY BAY AREA. EXPECT VFR CONSITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
CREATING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS JUST STARTING TO CLEAR OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN CREATING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CEILINGS MOVING INTO MRY AND SNS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CLEARING EXPECTED BY 06Z AS THE FRONT
PASSES AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
CREATING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...NONE



$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 222338
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
335 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY MAKING WAY FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE VALLEY AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

WARMING AND DRY TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP IN
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW DOWN FAVORED
SIERRA CANYONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH IMPACTING THE NRN CAL
ON THU AND INTO FRI.  BUT THE GFS...EC AND GEM ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON
THE TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE.  YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO STILL NOT QUITE SURE ON EXACT TIMING.
THE HPC SOLUTION USED A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT FAVORED MORE TOWARD
THE EC.  SO WENT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NRN THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE FORECAST MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE NRN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY.  THE SACRAMENTO AREA SHOULD STAY DRY WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS.  JMC

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TRANSITIONING N TO NWRLY FOR
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY
MORNING ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. MVFR
CONDS WITH LOCAL IFR COULD DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAC VALLEY INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AFFECTING THE KSMF-KSAC-KMHR-KSCK TAF SITES.
KRDD-KRBL VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO FOG DUE TO NEARBY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY.  JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KLOX 222311
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE BENEATH THE HIGH WILL BRING WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A
COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. WINDS
AT KSDB AND SOME SITES THROUGH AND BELOW THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE ARE
INCREASING AT THIS HOUR. WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS
EVENING AS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
SANTA MONICA RANGE TONIGHT. 18Z SOLUTIONS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED THE
WINDS OVER THESE AREAS.

NORTHERLY GRADIENTS WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...AND THE FLOW PATTERN
SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST AS COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE DESERT AND SLAMS
UP AGAINST THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT WILL SET UP DEVELOPING A SANTA ANA FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. KLAX-KDAG SURFACE GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FROM THE 18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM-
WRF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT PACKAGE
INDICATES CURRENTLY FOR MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
SANTA ANA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND THE THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE.
WITH MONDAY HAVING A GOOD POSSIBLY FOR BETTER MIXING DUE TO
WINDS...BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
WILL WORK OUT FINE THOUGH.

THE EVENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...WITH WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE EVENT
COULD BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY WEDNESDAY. NAM-WRF
AND GFS 850 MB THERMAL AND SURFACE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. 850MB WINDS
ALSO INCREASE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...TO 30 T0 35 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SITUATION HAS CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND CLOSE
MONITORING BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY-SUNDAY)...MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY...AND A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS VARY IN STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF
THE TROUGH FROM RUN-TO-RUN...ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OCCURRING NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT. SKY COVER
WAS INCREASED AND SOME MARINE LAYER WAS ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM AND
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
23/11Z. THERE IS A CHANCE 5SM HAZE WILL DEVELOP AFTER 11Z AND
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEIER/HALL
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KPSR 222301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
350 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WERE 1 OR 2 DEGREES LOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN
FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST
SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE NORTH TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED AT KBLH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ABOVE 6 KNOTS AT KPHX AND KIWA BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS66 KHNX 222249
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
249 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009



.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS...THE SIERRA NEVADA...AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
TEHACHAPIS...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE READINGS 24 HRS AGO. MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE AND SOUTH
END THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND WITH
VISIBILITIES MOSTLY ABOVE 1/4 MILE. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST
THE MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST EITHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY AM FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY
MIDWEEK. AFTER THANKSGIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK
DOWNWARD TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH.


&&



.AVIATION...
SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE SJV FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z
WITH LOCAL IFR FOR VIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KMTR 222249
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
248 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS
RESULTED IN ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE AT KSFO TO 0.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION AT KSTS. MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY WARM AROUND 9 DEGREES CELSIUS SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL INTO THE FROST FREEZE RANGE.

DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE LIMITING THE OCEANS
INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND
1800 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THEY HAVE ON PAST MODEL RUNS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
THE GFS SOLUTION IS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS COMING MORE IN-LINE
WITH THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE AMPLITUDE. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE
BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA RIGHT NOW WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AT
SFO. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 22Z...THEN
SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST. NORTH WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1800-2000 RANGE UNTIL
ABOUT 20Z...THEN RAISE ABOVE 2000 FEET...SCATTERING OUT BY 22Z.LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SWITCHING TO WEST LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. VICINITY
SHOWERS MANY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.



&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDA...NONE



$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KEKA 222209 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
208 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF AS NOTED BY OBSERVATIONS
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE PAST HOUR FROM VARIOUS RAWS STATIONS SUCH
AS BONANZA KING...FRIEND MOUNTAIN AND BIG HILL. EXPECT A DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE NIGHT
FAIRLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED
OVER INLAND VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS DUE TO WET GROUND
SURFACES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT ANY SORT OF MARINE FOG FORMATION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE E PAC
TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS
VANCOUVER ISLAND. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...BUT NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. THE E PAC RIDGE WILL REBUILD TUESDAY AND THEN PUSH
INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE E PAC. CMC
&&

.MARINE...LATEST ENP/WCWAVE10 SHOWING COMBINED SEAS HEIGHT MAX OF
AROUND 16 FT WITH 11 TO 12 SECOND PERIODS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONE WATERS. CURRENT AFTERNOON BUOY OBS SHOW HEIGHTS
THAT HIGH BUT LONGER PERIODS WITH 16 FT AT 14 TO 13 SECONDS REPORTED
AT BUOYS 27 AND 22 RESPECTIVELY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL
DIMINISHES. A LONGER PERIOD MODERATE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING TOMORROW PER LATEST HANSON PLOTS/SWAN DATA. HENRY

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...DRIER
AIRMASS...AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG/BR...INCLUDING AT THE KUKI TAF SITE.
HENRY

&&

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ455-475.


&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS65 KREV 222148
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
148 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LOW OVER ERN WASHING IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NW. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
AS WINDS DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE FLAT WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUES. TEMPS IN WRN NV VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW WITH LESS MIXING AND NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WHILE MTN
VALLEYS AND RIDGES RESPOND MORE TO WARMING ALOFT. PATTERN PERSISTS
THRU TUE NIGHT WITH COOL TO COLD NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS...BUT MOST
WARMING IN MTNS. COOLED WED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPS
NO LONGER WARM FOR MTNS AND LOWER VALLEYS WILL STILL BE UNDER
MODERATE TO STG INVERSION AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NA AND A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NA. THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
HOWEVER AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATE ON THANKSGIVING OR THAT NIGHT.

THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH TO THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SIERRA
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL INSIDE SLIDER
FEATURE IS FURTHER WEST...ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS BRINGS A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SIERRA THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDS
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN DISCREPANCIES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AND WHETHER WE SEE A SECONDARY SHOT BEHIND
IT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF
DUSTING OF SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO LASSEN COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH
ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EC TYPE SOLUTION WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. KEPT THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND DRY.

THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE VERY MILD AND BREEZY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT WELL IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH WARMING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE NEAR 60 DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST FOR RENO-CARSON WITH MID 50S IN
THE TAHOE BASIN AND AT MAMMOTH BUT COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG INVERSIONS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT UNDER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS
ALONG WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS RELATIVELY COOL.

JAH

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
LIKEWISE VALLEY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BECOMING
LIGHT ALL TAF SITES BY 02Z.

KLOL AND KRNO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY MONDAY UP TO 10KTS WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS TUESDAY.

KTVL AND KTRK...BKN CIGS 035-040 WITH PARTIAL MTN OBSCUREMENT
THROUGH 02Z...THEN LOWER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT KTRK TO GO DOWN TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG AFTER 09Z BECOMING VFR BY 18Z. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. JAH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 222132
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLEAR AND COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK
ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E AT ABOUT 2 MB SAN-IPL AND OFFSHORE FROM
THE N WITH ABOUT 1 MB SAN-TPH...TRENDING OFFSHORE.

FLAT OR WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLEAR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEAK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND THERMAL SUPPORT.
THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN
CANYONS AND PASSES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WHEN
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. MOST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH IN THE FAVORED AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS...BANNING PASS AND IN
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN CANYONS. A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY THEN MORE
WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AT NIGHT IN
AREAS PROTECTED FROM THE WINDS. THE WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND FROM THE COAST ABOUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A FEW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...OFFSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHICH COULD
AFFECT KSAN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW

000
FXUS66 KSGX 222129
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLEAR AND COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK
ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E AT ABOUT 2 MB SAN-IPL AND OFFSHORE FROM
THE N WITH ABOUT 1 MB SAN-TPH...TRENDING OFFSHORE.

FLAT OR WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLEAR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEAK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND THERMAL SUPPORT.
THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN
CANYONS AND PASSES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WHEN
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. MOST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH IN THE FAVORED AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS...BANNING PASS AND IN
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN CANYONS. A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY THEN MORE
WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AT NIGHT IN
AREAS PROTECTED FROM THE WINDS. THE WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND FROM THE COAST ABOUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A FEW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...OFFSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHICH COULD
AFFECT KSAN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW

000
FXUS66 KLOX 221830
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED THIS
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN LATER
TODAY. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CAPTURED THE DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS
WELL FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGREE WITH
THOUGHTS FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS. NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
INDICATE 850 MB AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFR DATA TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
FEET MSL BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT FOR KBUR...KVNY...AND KSBA.
DESPITE SOME MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN INITIALIZATION...GRADIENTS
STILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOW TO PERSIST...BUT ACCOUNT FOR
MORE LOCAL WINDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD DIMINISH A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME INDICATES. MODELS ARE TRENDING
WEAKER WITH THE EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMAL SUPPORT WEAKENS BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DECENT HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA
AND SETS UP NE FLOW THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AND WILL QUICKLY WARM TEMPS UP FROM TODAYS COOLER VALUES. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH VALUES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE A MUCH
BETTER JUMP UP IN TEMPS DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOE
THE NEXT SEVEN.

LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN THANKSGIVING. THE EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
BRINGS IN A FULL ON TROF TO SO CAL WHILE THE GFS MERELY FLATTENS
THE RIDGE OUT. WILL LET THE MDLS SLUG IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS
BEFORE ALTERING THE FORECAST TOWARDS EITHER SOLN. THE BIG THING IS
THAT THE TEMPS WILL COLLAPSE AND THIS IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM AND
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE IN
THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
23/11Z. THERE IS A CHANCE 5SM HAZE WILL DEVELOP AFTER 11Z AND
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEIER
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KEKA 221805 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1005 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
&&

.UPDATE...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED BY KBHX. NAM AND RUC13 INDICATE
DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND AFTER AROUND 15 UTC SO HAVE ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO INDICATE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. CMC

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW CA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUM SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TO MID 30S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILING OVER THE E PAC/W CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING OF MINOR SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL N OF CWA WITH LITTLE BUT INCREASED
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E BY THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE E PAC. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH
AND TIMING BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED MAINTAINING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE E PAC. BC
&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS
BRINGING THE TAF SITES A MIX OF WEATHER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SITES WILL GENERALLY BE
IFR/MVFR DUE TO THE RAIN THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO
THE EAST THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL
REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
STROZ
&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND EASING AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A NORTHWEST SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WIND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 10 FT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. STROZ &&

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SCA ALL WATERS.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KMTR 221753
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
952 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST SLIDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CURRENTLY ENERGY AND
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE
IS PASSING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
TO NAPA AMD SONOMA COUNTIES. SO FAR KSTS HAS REPORTED A LITTLE MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS ENERGY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE LIMITING THE OCEANS
INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND
1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THEY HAVE ON PAST MODEL RUNS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IT
LOOKS LIKE BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST.



&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA RIGHT NOW WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AT
SFO. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL 22Z...THEN
SCATTER OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES PAST. NORTH WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1800-2000 RANGE UNTIL
ABOUT 20Z...THEN RAISE ABOVE 2000 FEET...SCATTERING OUT BY 22Z.LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SWITCHING TO WEST LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. VICINITY
SHOWERS MANY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.



&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDA...NONE



$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KHNX 221736
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
936 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009



.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE YOSEMITE AREA
TODAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW
CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS...THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION IS SPREADING SOME CLOUDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA AND
THREATENING THE YOSEMITE VICINITY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SIDE
AND SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY...EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 4500 FEET AND
SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT PASSES AND CANYONS. JUST SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG WAS NOTED IN THE VALLEY THIS MORNING. CURRENT 24 HR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE MOSTLY RUNNING UP SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE STRATUS DECK WILL GET STIRRED UP A BIT BY THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY INTACT WHILE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INVADE INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF YESTERDAY READINGS. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE YOSEMITE AREA. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A GENERAL WARMING
TREND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO NEAR THE WEST COAST AROUND THANKSGIVING
DAY. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT
WILL GENERALLY BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&



.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY WITH LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE SJV FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z WITH LOCAL IFR FOR VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR UNTIL 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER LATE
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AND YUMA AREAS.

FORECAST LOOKS AS IF IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...NO UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
HAVE NO APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON SURFACE WINDS. THUS LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...EVEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING
ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING KBLH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MINOR AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...ELLIS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KSTO 221717
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
915 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST. AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED PRIMARILY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN END OF THE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY FORECAST UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MID-WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS THEY
ADVERTISE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DENTING THE RIDGE THANKSGIVING NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WK CDFNT AND UPR TROF WILL MOV ACRS INTR NORCAL TDA FLWD BY HI PRES
BLDG INLD TNGT INTO MON. FOR CNTRL VLY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDS MNLY N OF I-80 POSS THRU 00Z THEN MNLY VFR AFT EXC AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG POSS BTWN 12Z-17Z. FOR FTHLS/MTNS...WDSPRD IFR AND
LCL LIFR CONDS...MNLY N OF I-80...WITH CONDS GRDLY IMPVG AFT 03Z MON
EXC AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG/ST IN MTN VLYS BTWN 11Z-18Z. SN LVLS ARND
045 OVR NRN INTR MTNS...AND 050-060 OVR SIERNEV. LCL SW-NW SFC WND
GSTS TO 30 KTS OR GTR OMTNS TIL 04Z MON THEN LCL ELY SFC WND GSTS TO
30 KTS OR GTR OVR SIERNEV AFT 06Z MON TIL ARND 18Z MON.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KMTR 221707
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
907 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST SLIDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CURRENTLY ENERGY AND
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE
IS PASSING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
TO NAPA AMD SONOMA COUNTIES. SO FAR KSTS HAS REPORTED A LITTLE MORE
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS ENERGY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GENERALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE LIMITING THE OCEANS
INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND
1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THEY HAVE ON PAST MODEL RUNS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IT
LOOKS LIKE BOTH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST.



&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT PRECIP. 12Z TAF WILL KEEP
ANY CHC OF PRECIP CONFINED TO KSTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AT
KSFO OR KOAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL KEEP IT OUT.  LIGHT SE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE FROPA BECOMING W TO NW 18-21Z AROUND SF BAY. N
TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
FROPA WILL BE CLOSE TO 19Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR
LESS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS SWITCHING TO W TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH FROPA. VICINITY SHOWERS MANY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.



&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...NONE



$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 221700
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WERE PATCHES OF SHALLOW AND LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MTNS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. THE FOG IS BURNING OFF AND WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. THE MORNING NKX SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT
27OO FT WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS ABV. WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE
E WITH ABOUT 1 MB SAN-IPL AND OFFSHORE FROM THE N WITH ABOUT 3 MB
SAN-TPH...TRENDING OFFSHORE.

FLAT OR WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING FAIR AND A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER TODAY
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WEAK TO
BRIEFLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GRADIENT DRIVEN
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND THERMAL SUPPORT. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND
PASSES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. MOST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE
FAVORED AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS...BANNING PASS AND IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAIN CANYONS. A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY THEN MORE WARMING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AT NIGHT IN AREAS
PROTECTED FROM THE WINDS. THE WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND FROM THE COAST ABOUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A FEW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
221600Z...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT WITH LOCAL 3-5SM
IN HAZE THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST
WITH COULD AFFECT KSAN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW

000
FXUS65 KREV 221652
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
852 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP IN MANY
AREAS. STRONGEST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WITH TRAPPED LEE WAVES IN WAKE
OF MTNS WHICH SHOW UP WELL ON SAT IMAGERY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRONGER WINDS THAN ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN FOOTHILLS ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS LOOKS TO
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SO HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UPWARD A BIT TOO. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR LAKES
WHICH ARE ALREADY HANDLED.

PCPN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ONLY REALLY SEEING SOME UPSLOPE
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OS
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. CURRENT FCST HAS THESE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN
A COUPLE HRS AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. NO CHANGES OTHER THAN
WINDS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/REC SENT. UPDATED WAVE GRIDS FOR LAKES
OUT SHORTLY. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH 130+ JET CORE AT 300 MB HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAC NW STATES. A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NWRN CA IS EXPECTED TO REACH NERN CA AND NWRN NV
BY DAYBREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE AROUND THE SAME TIME. MOST OF THESE AREAS
WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF CEDARVILLE OR NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. THE
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 700 MB FLOW NEAR 50
KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU LATE MORNING THEN DROP OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME RIDGE GUST POTENTIAL OVER 80 MPH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING OF THESE WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL OR
GREATER WINDS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND BY THE
TIME MIXING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THE WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 40 KT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT NOT A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. LAKE WATERS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ENOUGH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE IMPROVED MIXING...AND IF CLOUD COVERAGE IS
THIN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON SOME VALLEYS IN WRN NV COULD EVEN MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE
CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. TEMPS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG IN THE TRUCKEE AREA INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS OF I-80 LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.

FOR MON-TUES...RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO
THE WRN US...WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NV
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE TAHOE BASIN BOTH
DAYS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 DEGREES. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA MID WEEK TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION.  AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST GENERALLY FAVORS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
ENERGY INTO THE WEST COAST.  POSSIBLE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
THE BIAS OF BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE TO QUICKLY IN THE BLOCKING TYPE
PATTERN.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS.  CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.  OVERALL THE PATTERN IN BOTH
MODELS FEATURES A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE BERING SEA...EJECTING ENERGY
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE WEST COAST.  KEY HERE IS THE
VERY DEEP LOW AND COLD AIR THAT BREAKS OFF WITH EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY.

ONE PIECE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY AND DRIER TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT DEPENDING ON
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW AND MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON A
COLD NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE BERING
SEA...FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE GREAT BASIN. THUS DID
LOWER HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND.  POTENTIAL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.  BRONG

AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OREGON WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.

WINDS INCREASING IN THE SIERRA WITH RIDGE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH
50-60 KTS FROM TAHOE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 30-40 KTS NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT CA-FALLON
NV. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221216 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DAY TO DAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA DURING MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
HAVE NO APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON SURFACE WINDS. THUS LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...EVEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING
ABOVE 10 KTS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MINOR AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KEKA 221151 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW CA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUM SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TO MID 30S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILING OVER THE E PAC/W CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING OF MINOR SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL N OF CWA WITH LITTLE BUT INCREASED
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E BY THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE E PAC. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH
AND TIMING BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED MAINTAINING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE E PAC. BC
&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS
BRINGING THE TAF SITES A MIX OF WEATHER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SITES WILL GENERALLY BE
IFR/MVFR DUE TO THE RAIN THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO
THE EAST THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL
REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
STROZ
&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND EASING AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A NORTHWEST SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WIND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 10 FT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. STROZ &&

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SCA ALL WATERS.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KEKA 221150
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM BRINGS A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW CA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUM SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TO MID 30S. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILING OVER THE E PAC/W CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING OF MINOR SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS WELL N OF CWA WITH LITTLE BUT INCREASED
CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E BY THU AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE E PAC. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH
AND TIMING BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED MAINTAINING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE E PAC. BC
&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS
BRINGING THE TAF SITES A MIX OF WEATHER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SITES WILL GENERALLY BE
IFR/MVFR DUE TO THE RAIN THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO
THE EAST THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, VCSH WILL
REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL AT LEAST NOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
STROZ
&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND EASING AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A NORTHWEST SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WIND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 10 FT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. STROZ
&&

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SCA ALL WATERS.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 221145
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
345 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO
FAR...RADAR HAS INDICATED MUCH OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA VICINITY OF
STRONGER UPPER JET ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY AS WEAK LIFT
DIMINISHES...THOUGH CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MID-WEEK PROVIDING DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS THEY
ADVERTISE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DENTING THE RIDGE THANKSGIVING NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WK CDFNT AND UPR TROF WILL MOV ACRS INTR NORCAL TDA FLWD BY HI PRES
BLDG INLD TNGT INTO MON. FOR CNTRL VLY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDS MNLY N OF I-80 POSS THRU 00Z THEN MNLY VFR AFT EXC AREAS
IFR/LIFR IN FOG POSS BTWN 12Z-17Z. FOR FTHLS/MTNS...WDSPRD IFR AND
LCL LIFR CONDS...MNLY N OF I-80...WITH CONDS GRDLY IMPVG AFT 03Z MON
EXC AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG/ST IN MTN VLYS BTWN 11Z-18Z. SN LVLS ARND
045 OVR NRN INTR MTNS...AND 050-060 OVR SIERNEV. LCL SW-NW SFC WND
GSTS TO 30 KTS OR GTR OMTNS TIL 04Z MON THEN LCL ELY SFC WND GSTS TO
30 KTS OR GTR OVR SIERNEV AFT 06Z MON TIL ARND 18Z MON.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KLOX 221136
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING...BRINGING THE AREA WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
SKIES ARE CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT ON THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE CUYAMA VLY
WHERE NORTH WINDS HAVE BANKED UP SOME LOW CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO MAY BE PRESENT IN THESE CLOUDS. WINDS THE BIG CONCERN TODAY
CURRENT WINDS ARE A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A SECOND SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE
ALL THAT`S NEEDED FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR
AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST/SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE WINDS OVER
THE VTA AND LA MTNS WILL TURN NE MONDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THIS DIRECTION SO THE ADVISORY
THERE GOES TO 1000 AM MONDAY WHILE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WIND ADVISORY
ENDS WITH THE DEMISE OF THE NORTH WINDS AROUND 300 AM MONDAY. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE COOL...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH ONLY
562 DM THKNS.

A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE A DECENT HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP NE FLOW
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WILL QUICKLY WARM
TEMPS UP FROM TODAYS COOLER VALUES. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
OFFSHORE FLOW EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES FLIRTING
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE A MUCH
BETTER JUMP UP IN TEMPS DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOE
THE NEXT SEVEN.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING. THE EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS IN A FULL ON
TROF TO SO CAL WHILE THE GFS MERELY FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT. WILL LET
THE MDLS SLUG IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE ALTERING THE
FORECAST TOWARDS EITHER SOLN. THE BIG THING IS THAT THE TEMPS WILL
COLLAPSE AND THIS IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

22/1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS CWA...EXCEPT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ERN
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SBA COUNTY AND THE NRN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY MTNS
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LA COAST THROUGH 17Z AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY CAUSING SOME LLWS NEAR KSBA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...EXCEPT BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS AS SOME CLOUD COVER GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

KLAX...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
17Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DMG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KMTR 221130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...SATL IMAGERY IS INDC A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. UKIAH IN MENDOCINO
COUNTY HAS HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR. TEMPS THIS
MORNING ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S FROM SAN JOSE NORTH WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...WITH 30S AND 40S FURTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH TODAY...FALLING APART AS IT MOVES SOUTH. MODELS BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN DOWN TO THE SF BAY AREA TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN JOSE.
AREA TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL QUESTIONS.
A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE FOG ADVECTING INTO THE
DISTRICT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS COULD AFFECT THE EAST BAY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY NEAR PACHECO PASS.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS THANKSGIVING DAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE DISTRICT
WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. LOOKING AT THE NCEP 500 MB
ENSEMBLE SPREAD THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH AS 125-150 DM
SPREAD BY NEXT SUNDAY. IT WOULDN`T BE A SURPRISE IF THE MODELS SHOW A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT PRECIP. 12Z TAF WILL KEEP
ANY CHC OF PRECIP CONFINED TO KSTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AT
KSFO OR KOAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL KEEP IT OUT.  LIGHT SE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE FROPA BECOMING W TO NW 18-21Z AROUND SF BAY. N
TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
FROPA WILL BE CLOSE TO 19Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR
LESS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS SWITCHING TO W TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH FROPA. VICINITY SHOWERS MANY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.



&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM TIL 9 AM
           SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM TIL 9 AM


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KREV 221124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...

COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH 130+ JET CORE AT 300 MB HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAC NW STATES. A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NWRN CA IS EXPECTED TO REACH NERN CA AND NWRN NV
BY DAYBREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE AROUND THE SAME TIME. MOST OF THESE AREAS
WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF CEDARVILLE OR NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. THE
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 700 MB FLOW NEAR 50
KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU LATE MORNING THEN DROP OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME RIDGE GUST POTENTIAL OVER 80 MPH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING OF THESE WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL OR
GREATER WINDS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND BY THE
TIME MIXING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THE WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 40 KT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT NOT A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. LAKE WATERS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ENOUGH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE IMPROVED MIXING...AND IF CLOUD COVERAGE IS
THIN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON SOME VALLEYS IN WRN NV COULD EVEN MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE
CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. TEMPS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG IN THE TRUCKEE AREA INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS OF I-80 LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.

FOR MON-TUES...RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO
THE WRN US...WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NV
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE TAHOE BASIN BOTH
DAYS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 DEGREES. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA MID WEEK TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION.  AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST GENERALLY FAVORS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
ENERGY INTO THE WEST COAST.  POSSIBLE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
THE BIAS OF BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE TO QUICKLY IN THE BLOCKING TYPE
PATTERN.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS.  CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.  OVERALL THE PATTERN IN BOTH
MODELS FEATURES A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE BERING SEA...EJECTING ENERGY
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE WEST COAST.  KEY HERE IS THE
VERY DEEP LOW AND COLD AIR THAT BREAKS OFF WITH EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY.

ONE PIECE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY AND DRIER TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT DEPENDING ON
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW AND MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON A
COLD NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE BERING
SEA...FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE GREAT BASIN. THUS DID
LOWER HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND.  POTENTIAL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.  BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OREGON WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.

WINDS INCREASING IN THE SIERRA WITH RIDGE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH
50-60 KTS FROM TAHOE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 30-40 KTS NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT CA-FALLON
NV. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ072.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 221034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALLY INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EARLY MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOWED NW
WINDS ALOFT. WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E AND OFFSHORE FROM THE N
WITH OFFSHORE TRENDS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN DISRUPTED THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE INLAND. FLAT OR WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING FAIR AND A LITTLE
WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. CLEAR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE W.
WEAK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH WEAK
UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. MOST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FAVORED AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN CANYONS. A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY THEN MORE WARMING
TUESDAY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AT NIGHT IN AREAS PROTECTED FROM
THE WINDS. THE WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER
HAZARD TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND FROM THE COAST ABOUT
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
221030Z...AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SW
SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE MIXING OUT. OTHERWISE...
AREAS OF RADIATION FOG/HAZE WILL LIMIT VIS TO 3SM OR LESS IN SOME
VALLEYS DO TO A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOCAL VLIFR VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z VICINITY KONT AND KRNM. BY 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...JAD

000
FXUS66 KHNX 221012
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
212 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE YOSEMITE AREA
TODAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW
CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KERN COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UPSLOPE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, FOOTHILLS AND
EVEN OVER THE TEMBLORS IN SOUTHWEST KERN COUNTY. WITH FORECAST
MODELS KEEPING THE NORTHWEST FLOW GOING TODAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR THE MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ITS
TRAJECTORY JUST MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE YOSEMITE
PARK AREA. I HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO YOSEMITE
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN QUICKLY EJECTING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN BUILDING IN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A REX BLOCK
PATTERN, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
NEAR OWYHEE, NEVADA AND A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE SALTON SEA. THE REX
BLOCK IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH TURKEY DAY AND THEN ON FRIDAY,
BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE BY SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND GENERATES A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH AND REX BLOCK
PATTERN AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD AFTER 17Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR UNTIL 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220839
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
135 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DAY TO DAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA DURING MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS66 KLOX 220616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...BRINGING THE AREA
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
LAST NIGHTS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
REMAIN MODERATELY OFFSHORE...WITH LAX-BAKERSFIELD CURRENTLY AT -4.8
MB AND SANTA BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD AT -5.2 MB. THESE
GRADIENTS...COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HAVE TRIGGERED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED THROGUGH THE PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL AND THERMAL
SUPPORT ACTUALLY INCREASED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS THERE COULD ALSO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A WARMING AIR MASS ON SUNDAY WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
WARMING AND DRYING ON MONDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON
MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A TAD ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN IF OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO REACH CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK SANTA ANA DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ON EITHER MODEL. A
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
RUN HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0530Z.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR HAZE POTENTIAL FOR KLGB AND KLAX. THE GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL BRING
LLWS CONCERNS FOR KSBA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
COULD AFFECT KLAX SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO A MORE TYPICAL SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VSBYS
GOING TO 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z. TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KSTO 220615
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1010 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONTAL/WAA CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES
WITH THE LEADING EDGE TO ABOUT THE I-80 CORRIDOR AT 930 PM PST. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG IN THE VLY. WARM
FRONTAL PCPN HAS SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE N COAST...AND IS NOW
NEARING OUR WRN SHASTA/TEHAMA COUNTY AREAS. BY 15Z SUN...THE 22/00Z
WRF MODEL SPREADS PCPN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE MTN ZONES...AND THEN ENDS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGE BY LATE AFTN AND THEN OVER THE W SLOPE
SIERNEV BY EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PCPN IS FORECAST
FOR THE INTERIOR VLY...AND LOOKING AT THE OMEGA/UVM PROGS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY PCPN IN THE NRN HALF OF THE SAC VLY MAY BE IN THE
MORNING...AS BY AFTN...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA.
THIS IS IN PART DUE TO WEAKENING WAA...BUT ALSO DUE TO UPPER JET
DYNAMICS AS THEY ARE STRONGER IN THE MORNING THAN IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ORE BORDER 06Z-18Z SUN...AND THEN INTO NV BY AND AFT 18Z.
THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UVM OVER NORCAL DURING THE AFTN.

WITH THE UPPER JET PASSING ALONG THE CA/ORE BORDER...THE DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL N OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS
WE EXPECT A HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF SYSTEM FOR INTERIOR NORCAL. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS QUICKLY TO THE E...AND THE FLOW WILL TURN NWLY.
DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER INTERIOR NORCAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.     JHM


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY WHICH
INTRIGUINGLY ENOUGH INITIALLY LIFTED THIS MORNINGS FOG TO A LOW
STRATUS CLOUD...THEN ADVECTED THE STRATUS CLOUD SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT
FINALLY DISSIPATED. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

THE REPRIEVE THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WILL BE BRIEF BECAUSE OF
THE ENCROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WAVE IS A FAIR BIT QUICKER THAN THE
LAST AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH TOWARDS OREGON.
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THAT LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A WARMING
AND DRY TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FAVORED SIERRA CANYONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGH THE VALLEY AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DANG

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RIDGE STILL DOMINATES WED.  OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WED MORN.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH IMPACTING THE NRN CAL ON THU AND INTO FRI...
BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON THE TIMING WITH EC BEING
MORE PROGRESSIVE.  THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER.
THE GFS ONLY DEVELOPS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC AND NRN CAL
WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH TROUGH SLIDING DOWN
FROM BC AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. THE HPC SOLUTION USED A BLEND
OF THE TWO...BUT FAVORED MORE TOWARD THE EC.  SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SHASTA AND PLUMAS CO MTNS SAT.  JMC

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT.
RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AFTER
06Z...SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SACRAMENTO BY AROUND 12Z. THIS
WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN.
BR BRINGING MVFR/LIFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNER OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING
LOCAL LIFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE EVENING AND
DROPPING TO 3000-4000 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KMTR 220614
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
905 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WAS A SUNNY BUT
COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...AND WERE ON AVERAGE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PAC NW
AND FAR NORTHERN CA AT THE PRESENT TIME. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT AND...ACCORDING TO BOTH THE
00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THESE TWO MODELS THEN SLIDE LIGHT PRECIP A BIT FATHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND MEASURABLE RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN
FRANCISCO BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO FATHER SOUTH. A
FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO ADJUST THE
POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT MODELS HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER CA THROUGH MIDWEEK...PRODUCING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH LATE ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTH BAY WITH
LIGHT PRECIP BY THAT EVENING. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN SLOWER
WITH THAT SYSTEM THAN THE EUROPEAN. THE UPSHOT IS THAT IF PRECIP DOES
OCCUR ON THANKSGIVING...IT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AND PROBABLY
ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE
SFO BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT. BASES COULD GET DOWN TO 2500-3000 FEET
AFTER 12Z. SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MRY BAY AREA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING SWITCHING TO WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CEILINGS AT 2500-3000 FEET COULD AFFECT THE
AIRPORT AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS SWITCHING TO W TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM
            SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 220538
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
IN SOME PLACES (BEAUMONT) IT WAS A FULL 10 DEGREES LOWER. THE
DOWNWARD SLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN THE SOME OF THE COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AREAS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS (BALDWIN LAKE).

CLOUD COVER FROM THE MARINE LAYER THIS EVENING IS SPOTTY. MOST OF
THE REGION WAS CLEAR AT 9 PM. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BRIEFLY
NEUTRALIZE THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE PATTERN. BUT IT TURNS AROUND
QUICKLY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW ARRIVES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER EACH
DAY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK TO MODERATE
SANTA ANA WINDS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

COOLING NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS REPLACED
BY A PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGING COOLER WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
230530Z...THE MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SEA BREEZE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SHORT TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NEXT CONCERN IS THE PROLONGED
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TO
BRIEFLY MODERATE EVENT...PEAKING ON TUESDAY. ADDED FORECAST WIND
GUSTS AND RH VALUES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF EACH FIRE WEATHER
ZONE FORECAST IN THIS AFTERNOONS. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...ASSUMING THE
MODELS ARE DEAD ON ACCURATE WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE...A MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS ADVERTISED TO FINISH
OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR

000
FXUS66 KMTR 220507
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
905 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PST SATURDAY...SATURDAY WAS A SUNNY BUT
COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...AND WERE ON AVERAGE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PAC NW
AND FAR NORTHERN CA AT THE PRESENT TIME. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT AND...ACCORDING TO BOTH THE
00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THESE TWO MODELS THEN SLIDE LIGHT PRECIP A BIT FATHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND MEASURABLE RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN
FRANCISCO BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY NO FATHER SOUTH. A
FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO ADJUST THE
POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE
THAT MODELS HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER CA THROUGH MIDWEEK...PRODUCING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH LATE ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTH BAY WITH
LIGHT PRECIP BY THAT EVENING. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN SLOWER
WITH THAT SYSTEM THAN THE EUROPEAN. THE UPSHOT IS THAT IF PRECIP DOES
OCCUR ON THANKSGIVING...IT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AND PROBABLY
ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE SFO BAY
AREA LATE TONIGHT WELL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
BASES OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2500-3000 FEET BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH HOUR. SOME CEILINGS AT 2500-3000 FEET WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM
            SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KHNX 220447
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
847 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009



.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEAR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KERN COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS NOT GOING AWAY...AND IF ANYTHING ACTUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS TULARE AND KERN COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST TONITE. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND PROBABLY FIRST HALF
OF SUN. MAY BE SOME PLACES IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THAT DONT SEE
MUCH SUNSHINE. HAVE UPDATE GRIDS THIS EVE FOR MORE CLOUDS INTO
SUNDAY AND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGS. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YOSEMITE AND ADDED A SMALL
POP THERE. DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER TONITE THAN PREV
FCST AS MID CLOUDS MOVE IN...AND NOT MUCH CHANCE OF FOG EITHER.


&&


.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009/
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO PAC NW TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON THE AREAS WEATHER. CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED BANKED ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS ALL DAY WITH
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
CLEARED OUT QUITE NICELY.

MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME THE FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG THE 198 CORRIDOR...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
CLEARS SKIES EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SJV.

CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG. LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD AFTER 17Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR UNTIL 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KLOX 220405
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...BRINGING THE AREA
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN MODERATELY
OFFSHORE...WITH LAX-BAKERSFIELD CURRENTLY AT -4.8 MB AND SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD AT -5.2 MB. THESE GRADIENTS...COMBINED WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE TRIGGERED WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED THROGUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS
WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO REINFORCE
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL AND THERMAL SUPPORT ACTUALLY INCREASED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS THERE COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A WARMING AIR MASS ON SUNDAY WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WARMING AND DRYING
ON MONDAY. ANY OFFSHORE WINDS THAT DEVELOP ON MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A TAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...IT IS STILL NOT
CERTAIN IF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO REACH
CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK SANTA ANA DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ON EITHER MODEL. A
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF
RUN HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0400Z.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR HAZE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA BASIN. THE
GUSTY WINDS IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WILL
BRING LLWS CONCERNS FOR KSBA.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
COULD AFFECT KLAX SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO A MORE TYPICAL SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A CHANCE OF VSBYS GOING TO 5SM HZ
AFTER 22/11Z. TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220257
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL
CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING WEATHER-WISE IN AZ FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...REPLETE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH.  CURRENT DRY FORECASTS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS A BIT OF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTH MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
THANKSGIVING DAY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL GO WITH
SCENARIO OF ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BY SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED WITH THANKSGIVING DAY
THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS66 KMTR 220050
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
224 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:24 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS WITHIN
2 TO 3 DEGREES OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER...IT ALSO IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A COLD FRONT RESULTING FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHBAY LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME ADDED CLOUD
COVER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROPPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE SFO BAY
AREA LATE TONIGHT WELL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
BASES OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2500-3000 FEET BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH HOUR. SOME CEILINGS AT 2500-3000 FEET WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM
            SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 212357
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY WHICH
INTRIGUINGLY ENOUGH INITIALLY LIFTED THIS MORNINGS FOG TO A LOW
STRATUS CLOUD...THEN ADVECTED THE STRATUS CLOUD SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT
FINALLY DISSIPATED. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A BAROCLINIC LEAF
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.

THE REPRIEVE THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WILL BE BRIEF BECAUSE OF
THE ENCROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WAVE IS A FAIR BIT QUICKER THAN THE
LAST AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH TOWARDS OREGON.
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THAT LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN A WARMING
AND DRY TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FAVORED SIERRA CANYONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGH THE VALLEY AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DANG

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RIDGE STILL DOMINATES WED.  OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG
EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WED MORN.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH IMPACTING THE NRN CAL ON THU AND INTO FRI...
BUT THE GFS AND EC ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON THE TIMING WITH EC BEING
MORE PROGRESSIVE.  THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER.
THE GFS ONLY DEVELOPS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC AND NRN CAL
WHILE THE EC HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH TROUGH SLIDING DOWN
FROM BC AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. THE HPC SOLUTION USED A BLEND
OF THE TWO...BUT FAVORED MORE TOWARD THE EC.  SO WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SHASTA AND PLUMAS CO MTNS SAT.  JMC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AFTER 06Z...SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SACRAMENTO BY AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH
LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN. BR BRINGING MVFR/LIFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNER
OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCAL LIFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPING TO
3000-4000 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KHNX 212304
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
304 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KERN COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO PAC NW TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON THE AREAS WEATHER. CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED BANKED ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS ALL DAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS CLEARED OUT QUITE NICELY.

MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME THE FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG THE 198 CORRIDOR...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
CLEARS SKIES EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SJV.

CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
IN THE FRESNO COUNTY PORTION AND FURTHER NORTH FOR THE SIERRA BUT
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE TULARE COUNTY PORTION. FURTHER SOUTH THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECREASING. WE RECEIVED A REPORT
OF A MOTORIST IN SEQUOIA NAT PARK WHO EXPERIENCED NEAR ZERO VSBY IN
FOG AT ABOUT 3KFT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT ERODE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. HAVE BROUGHT
LIFR CONDITIONS TO KVIS AND IFR CONDS FOR VSBY TO OTHER TERMINAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS65 KREV 212259
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN TONIGHT IS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH CLOUD
SHIELD ONTO NW CA. SYSTEM IS POTENT AND SMALL...BUT WILL DEAL JUST
A GLANCING BLOW TO THE AREA AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR/WA.
DECENT AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH AFTER
06Z SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50/60 PCT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND PCPN ALMOST ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. PROG SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW NEAR
ISOTHERMAL TEMP PROFILE THROUGH 15Z. COLD FRONT WITH SYSTEM JUST
GLANCES THE AREA SUN MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS FOR
ANOTHER 6 HRS THRU MID-MORNING. BY THEN...MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH SYSTEM WILL HAVE RACED EWD.

700 MB WINDS ALSO INCREASE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TO NEAR 60 KTS
BY 12Z. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MIXING THESE TO SFC OR FOR MTN WAVES. AS PROFILE IMPROVES BY
18Z...WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR 35-40 KTS ACROSS MANY AREAS NORTH OF
HWY 50. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY TOMORROW MOST AREAS WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 35-40 MPH...BUT NOTHING LIKE FRIDAY. HOISTED LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT CHOPPY WITH THE
WINDS AND WAVES AS HIGH AS 3 FEET.

BEHIND SYSTEM...RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MON/TUE. RIDGE IS FAIRLY FLAT
SO IT WILL BE DIRTY WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN VALLEYS
WITH GOOD MIXING TOMORRW BECOMING POOR BY MON WITH LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. MTNS WILL SEE BETTER MIXING AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIDGE INTACT FOR MIDWEEK IN QUITE AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.

FOR LATE IN THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A
STRONGER AND COLDER SHORTWAVE TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A SHALLOWER SHORTWAVE. THE EC WOULD POINT TO SHOWERS
FROM TAHOE AND I-80 NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER TYPE IMPULSE REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES JUST GENERATE A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS RUN ALSO INDICATED AN
INSIDE SLIDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MUCH LIKE THE LATEST EC...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS RUNS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FOR
THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT WILL LEAVE THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS...WHILE RIDGES WILL WARM MORE UNDER RIDGE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. JAH

&&

.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCUREMENT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-60KTS FROM
TAHOE NORTH. VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM RENO NORTH WILL SEE GUSTS TO
30KTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. JAH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KPSR 212244
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL
CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS A BIT OF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTH MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
THANKSGIVING DAY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL GO WITH
SCENARIO OF ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BY SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED WITH THANKSGIVING DAY
THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

SOME WIND FROM THE NORTH AT KBLH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
0100 GMT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
USUAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT KPHX AND KIWA. SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY BEFORE 0200 GMT
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BETWEEN 1200 AND 2000 GMT SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS66 KMTR 212224
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
224 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:24 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS WITHIN
2 TO 3 DEGREES OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER...IT ALSO IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A COLD FRONT RESULTING FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHBAY LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME ADDED CLOUD
COVER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROPPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. WEST WINDS AOB 10
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM
            SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KEKA 212203
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
203 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY EARLY TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. VISIBLE SAT IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD SHIELD MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST...CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER THE REDWOOD COAST. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITION RAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SNOW AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO BE NEAR 5000
FT...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR POCKETS IN THE TRINITY VALLEYS MAY ALLOW
A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX DOWN IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. THE LIKELY SPOTS ARE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN EASTERN HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES.
RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
AROUND 00Z...ACCOMPANIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. THE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THINGS WILL TAPER OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT PER GFS
FORECAST. THE FIVE WAVE PATTERN SHOWS A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME INCREASED
CLOUDINESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A COUPLE DAYS OF WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 580. ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...AND DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH
AS IT MAKES LANDFALL EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND INDICATED AN IMPROVING TREND FOR SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
APPEARS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000 FT...SO THAT
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. CMC

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
NORTHWESTERLY. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL...HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A
LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BY MID
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT NEXT WEEK.
HENRY
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NORTH COAST
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WET AS
THE LAST SYSTEM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY STARTING BTW 03 AND 06Z ALONG
THE COAST...AND 05 AND 08Z INLAND TOWARD KUKI. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
HENRY

&&

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KLOX 212151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
UPSLOPE MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND A FEW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
REPORTING GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S HIGHS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL REISSUE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR A SUNDOWNER IN THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND A
RESURGENCE OF NORTH WINDS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AS WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE
AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONGLY OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY MORNING...THUS THE REASONING TO
CONTINUE AN ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS
THERE COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. READINGS WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK SANTA ANA DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. OFFSHORE WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ON
EITHER MODEL. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF RUN HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MODERATE MID
LEVEL NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTER 22/03Z OVER AREA. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTER 22/06Z.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. IT IS LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 22/15Z AND PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

KBUR...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KSGX 212122
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE ONSHORE BUT ARE TRENDING WEAKER TO THE NORTH...WITH ABOUT 4
MB SAN-IPL AND 5 MB SAN-LAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY NW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
PASS TO THE NORTH. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME WEAKLY
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN ONSHORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT TO LOWER HUMIDITIES A LITTLE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
CLEAR AND A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY...THEN EVEN WARMER MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST
GUSTS LESS THAN 35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
212000Z...MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DROP TONIGHT TO ABOUT 1500 TO
2000 FT. FLOW GOING OFFSHORE AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL GO FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE VSBY 3-5SM AND ISOLATED LOWER TONIGHT.
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL IN THE NEAR COAST AREAS WITH
ISOLATED BRIEF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SHORT TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NEXT CONCERN IS STILL THE
PROLONGED OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE EVENT. ADDING FORECAST WIND GUSTS AND RH
VALUES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF EACH FIRE WEATHER ZONE FORECAST IN
THIS AFTERNOONS. NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN THE 900
AM ARE FORECAST DISCUSSION. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...ASSUMING THE
MODELS ARE DEAD ON ACCURATE WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE...A MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS ADVERTISED TO FINISH
OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR

000
FXUS66 KLOX 211831
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...WILL MAKE A FEW UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAN CURRENT FORECASTS.

A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH TOTALS MAINLY UNDER
0.10 INCH...BUT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OVER 0.20 INCH ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO STRONG...BUT
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SQUEAK INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 11AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24-HOURS AGO
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW TODAY BUT IT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY. MODEL DATA
SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES...CONTINUED DRY BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND TOMORROW AND THEN STRONGER WARMING BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR MIDWEEK. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN GAINING STRENGTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD
AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MODERATE MID
LEVEL NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTER 22/03Z OVER AREA. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTER 22/06Z.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. IT IS LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 22/15Z AND PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

KBUR...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211735
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA AND YUMA...1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
DESERT AREAS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
LATE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS
GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERT AREAS...AND NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA...AND IT LOOKS AS IF ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT
THIS WEEKEND...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS
TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO
FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST
MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF
MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN
SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KMTR 211730
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
930 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SATURDAY...THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DAY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER NIGHT LOWS WERE PRETTY CHILLY LAST NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE CHILLIEST AREA WAS OF COURSE
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SONOMA
COUNTY AIRPORT MADE IT TO 32 DEGREES AND WAS REPORTING FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE NAPA AIRPORT MADE IT DOWN TO 36 DEGREES
AND ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG.

TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO DRY OUT TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROOPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. WEST WINDS AOB 10
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDA...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
        ...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
        ...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KHNX 211728
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
928 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AS SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SIERRA CREST TODAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO KERN
COUNTY AND A EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WAS RATHER LIGHT. RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME NORTHWARD BOUND ECHOES FROM FRESNO
NORTH INTO YOSEMITE AND THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IN THE VERY FAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
FORECAST MODELS RACE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTH STATE
TONIGHT HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
HANFORD FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
SIERRA WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DECLINE BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, OVER
KERN COUNTY THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND GRAPEVINE AREA MOUNTAINS. BEGINNING LATER
SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED BY ALL MODELS TO
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL QUITE EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE
STORM TRACK WELL NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE HOWEVER ON THANKSGIVING, THE ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND DRIVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE. FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IT WILL BE DRY EITHER WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT I DON`T SEE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE BIG
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST IF AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MIGHT GET UNDER A RIDGE IN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VISB SAT
THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TEHACHAPIS. LOW CLOUDS
ALSO SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SIERRA. SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE SLOWEST IN THE
TEHACHAPIS. GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH
G20KTS OR SO LIKELY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH
LIFR PREDICTED AT ONLY KVIS FOR NOW AND IFR TO MVFR AT THE OTHER
SITES.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KLOX 211725
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...WILL MAKE A FEW UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAN CURRENT FORECASTS.

A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH TOTALS MAINLY UNDER
0.10 INCH...BUT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OVER 0.20 INCH ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO STRONG...BUT
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SQUEAK INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 11AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24-HOURS AGO
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW TODAY BUT IT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY. MODEL DATA
SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES...CONTINUED DRY BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND TOMORROW AND THEN STRONGER WARMING BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR MIDWEEK. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN GAINING STRENGTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD
AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1215Z.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BOUNCING ABOUT
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MANY TAF SITES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SCT V BKN CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE RHYME OR REASON. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM KPRB
WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CEILINGS.

KLAX AND KBUR...SCT V BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KSGX 211702
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. COOL TODAY
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER W OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE MORNING
NKX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2500 FT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE ONSHORE WITH ABOUT 4 MB
SAN-IPL AND 7 MB SAN-LAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG W OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY WINDY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. DRY NW FLOW WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. COOL TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
WEAKLY OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN ONSHORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT TO LOWER HUMIDITIES A LITTLE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
CLEAR AND WARMER MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST
GUSTS LESS THAN 35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
211600Z...MARINE LAYER ABOUT 3K TO 3.5K FT. AREAS OF BROKEN BASES
AROUND 2.5K TO 3K FT MSL. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR BY 18-20Z WITH A
FEW STRATOCU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY QUITE VARIABLE WITH
AREAS 3-5SM...LOCALLY 1-2SM AND ISOLATED BELOW 1SM. VSBY WILL
IMPROVE BY 16-17Z. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOCAL VSBY 3-5SM AND
ISOLATED BELOW 3SM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 1630Z SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SHORT TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NOW THAT MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED AND SPILLED INTO DESERTS ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE DRY ABOVE
7000 FEET. NEXT CONCERN IS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NE NEVADA AND SW CALIFORNIA COAST ARE
SIGNIFICANT...14-18 MB...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS QUITE
BROAD WITH AN AXIS TOO FAR INLAND TO INDICATE MORE THAN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. SO FEEL THAT THE LOCAL WIND PROGRAM OUTPUT FROM THE
21/00Z GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE AND ECMWF MAY ALSO BE...SHOWING MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WIND PRONE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME LEANING MORE TOWARDS SUSTAINED NE-E 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. MONDAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE COOL AND MOIST
ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITY AT MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY HAS 6 TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR INLAND VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS/MID SLOPES WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 1500 FT ELEVATION. ON WEDNESDAY LONGER
DURATIONS...8 TO 12 HOURS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AGAIN.
THURSDAY DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. FRIDAY THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN YIELDING COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR

000
FXUS66 KSTO 211659
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM. SNOW REPORTS FROM
YESTERDAY ARE STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM YESTERDAY...OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW FELL NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AS
LOW AS NEARLY 3000 FT ELEVATION.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS WIDESPREAD FOG. TWO
SWATHS OF FOG ARE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...ONE NARROW AREA
ALONG I-5 FROM REDDING TO AROUND CORNING. THE OTHER IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE RUNNING FROM WILLOWS THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO METRO AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF STOCKTON. THE FOG SHOULD DISPERSE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AS WE START TO SEE SOME MORE MIXING.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS NEXT WAVE IS A FAIR BIT QUICKER
THAN THE LAST AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH TOWARDS
OREGON. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DANG

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/ST TIL ARND 18Z IN SAC VALLEY AND EXTREME NRN
SJ VALLEY OTRW VFR CONDS THRU 06Z SUN. WARM FRONT AND ASSOCD UPPER
TROUGH MOV INTO NORCAL TONIGHT INTO SUN. FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AFT 06Z
SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS MAINLY N OF I-80 IN -RA/BR. FOR
FTHLS/MTNS AFT 06Z SUN...WDSPRD IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN
DVLPG FM N-S OVNGT SAT INTO SUN MORN.  SN LVLS GENLY 045-055 MSL.
AREAS WLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS OR GTR OVR HYR MTN TRRN AFT 06Z SUN.

TAF SITES: KSMF AND KSAC ARE BOTH IN CENTER OF SRN SAC VALLEY FOG
AREA. FOG HAS NOW ADVECTED SE OVER KMHR...KEEPING KSMF...KSAC AND
KMHR IN SIMILAR CONDS.  KRDD AND KRBL ARE WITHIN NARROWER BAND OF
FOG...SO IT MAY THIN OUT A BIT SOONER.    JMC

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KMTR 211645
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
845 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SATURDAY...THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DAY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER NIGHT LOWS WERE PRETTY CHILLY LAST NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE CHILLIEST AREA WAS OF COURSE
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SONOMA
COUNTY AIRPORT MADE IT TO 32 DEGREES AND WAS REPORTING FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE NAPA AIRPORT MADE IT DOWN TO 36 DEGREES
AND ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG.

TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO DRY OUT TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROOPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSED YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHY GROUND FOG VCNTY KSNS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
        ...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
        ...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211311 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
610 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURRING
OVER NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS
WERE SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES
BELOW 0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS66 KMTR 211301
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
500 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY
AND LAST NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOIST
GROUND...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
DISTRICT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE NORTH BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
EAST BAY...SANTA CLARA VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. AT TIMES VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER
MILE AT SPOTS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE NEAR 47/147
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY...BUOYED BY A 135 KT JET PER GOES HIGH DENSITY
WINDS...TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NW. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE DISTRICTS WEATHER WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPS. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSED YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHY GROUND FOG VCNTY KSNS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
        ...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
        ...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KMTR 211219
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
419 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY
AND LAST NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOIST
GROUND...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
DISTRICT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE NORTH BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
EAST BAY...SANTA CLARA VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. AT TIMES VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER
MILE AT SPOTS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE NEAR 47/147
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY...BUOYED BY A 135 KT JET PER GOES HIGH DENSITY
WINDS...TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NW. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE DISTRICTS WEATHER WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPS. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. NO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR MRY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND AREAS OF GROUND FOG
AROUND STS THROUGH 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND MRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE SCT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
        ...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
        ...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
        ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI/CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 211217
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
417 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR NEXT
WEEK...CREATING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF CANYONS AND PASSES FOR MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH AXIS
RESIDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXITING LOS ANGELES COUNTY. MAIN
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
AND THE CARRIZO PLAIN THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES...POSSIBLY
LINGERING A BIT MORE ON THE PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED CANYONS WINDS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. GRADIENTS
REMAIN MODERATELY OUT THE NORTH...BUT ARE APPROACHING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS THE LATEST NAM-WRF AND LOCAL
16-KM WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEFED UP THE 850 MB WINDS AND THERMAL
SUPPORT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
PUSH A WEAKER BOUNDARY SOUTH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. POPS WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH FRONT WEAKENING AT IT CROSSES OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA...BEST ESTIMATE IS NOT TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS
AND WEATHER JUST YET. THIS FRONT WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE WINDS
THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND OVER SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY OCCUR.
KSBA-KBFL AND KLAX-KBFL SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TO AROUND 6 MB
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH RESPECTIVELY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
KICK AROUND THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECLUDING A DEVELOPING SANTA ANA FLOW PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR
MIDWEEK. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN
GAINING STRENGTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE
PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON TUESDAY...AND
KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1215Z.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BOUNCING ABOUT
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MANY TAF SITES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SCT V BKN CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE RHYME OR REASON. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM KPRB
WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CEILINGS.

KLAX AND KBUR...SCT V BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC/SYNOPSIS...HALL
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KEKA 211203
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE LULL IN
PRECIP WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE PAC NW LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN BULK OF ENERGY REMAINING WELL
N OF CWA...BUT PRECIP MAY BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT AS A JET MAX TRACKS
OVER THE ORCA BORDER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF TOTALS OF
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WITH TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT THIS
MORNING WILL RISE TODAY AS WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO INCREASE TO 5500 TO 6000 FT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
PRECIP BEGINS TONIGHT. LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN E HUMBOLDT AND W
TRINITY COUNTIES WHERE IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO MIX IN WARM AIR.

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE SUNDAY STORM MOVING INLAND FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE E PAC
BY MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE BUT THE EFFECT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS WORK ON BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SLOWING
DOWN THE TIMING WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD. CMC/BC
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NRN
PORTIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF A POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA...BUT
WILL BE HIGH SCA. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN SCA LEVEL AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE. HOWEVER THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LARGER SWELL MAKING IT
INTO THE FAR NRN WATERS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE INCREASED WIND WAVES
COULD GENERATE A HAZ SEA CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL TAPER QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. SEAS WILL TAPER INTO SUN NGT. ALL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE
DONE BY SUN NGT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW SCA WINDS AND
BORDERLINE SCA FOR SEAS. THE NEXT SIG FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THANKSGIVING NIGHT OR INTO FRI. BFG
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL REGIONS
YIELDING IFR THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE DAY.
THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS. IFR WILL
GENERALLY RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A FEW HRS DURING MIDDAY THAT
MAY REACH MVFR. UKI IS IN THE FOG THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SUCH
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE IFR DOMINATE CURRENTLY...BY DAYBREAK
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO VFR. CLOUDS WILL INC AND LOWER TONIGHT
AS A WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN MENDOCINO COUNTY AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH EARLY SUN MORN CAUSING MVFR.
BFG
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FOR SUN FOR PZZ470
SCA FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 211202
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE VALLEY HAS CLEARED OUT
WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. MUCH OF THIS REMAINING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY SUNRISE AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE VALLEY...WET
GROUND AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHES OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
AND THESE WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOP.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ANY UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STAYING WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS EVIDENT CROSSING 150W AND
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT WAVE WILL BE
FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO OREGON AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPR TROF MOVS INTO GRT BASIN THIS MRNG AS WK HIGH BLDS INTO NORCAL
TDA. WRMFNT AND ASSOCD UPR TROF MOV INTO NORCAL TNGT INTO SUN. FOR
INTR NORCAL AREAS IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/ST TIL ARND 18Z OTRW VFR
CONDS THRU 06Z SUN. FOR CNTRL VLY AFT 06Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS MNLY N OF I-80 IN -RA/BR. FOR FTHLS/MTNS AFT 06Z SUN...WDSPRD
IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN DVLPG FM N-S OVNGT SAT INTO SUN
MRNG. SN LVLS GENLY 045-055 MSL. AREAS WLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS OR
GTR OVR HYR MTN TRRN AFT 06Z SUN.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KREV 211135
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...

KRGX RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF PROBABLE SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY OCCURRING IN FAR NWRN NV AND SURPRISE VALLEY. NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALTURAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WHILE MESOWEST DATA
FROM CEDARVILLE AND FT BIDWELL HAVE ACCUMULATED 0.01 TO 0.02 INCH
OF PRECIP PER HOUR SINCE LATE FRI EVENING. WEAK SECONDARY VORT
CENTER MOVING ACROSS NRN CA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS
TO BE THE FORCE BEHIND THIS LIGHT SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK SO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS THRU 15Z FOR A SMALL PART OF NWRN NV.

OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
40S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NWRN US TONIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY ISOLD
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NERN CA-NWRN NV
AND PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECT BEING INCREASED WINDS. 700 MB FLOW
BRIEFLY REACHES 50 KT BTWN 12Z-18Z SUNDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS. WHILE THE PEAK SPEEDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO COME CLOSE TO THE 100+ MPH VALUES THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 70-80 MPH GUSTS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. WITH SOME MIXING LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVY
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID UNLESS NEXT
RUN OF GUIDANCE BACKS OFF ON THE 700 MB FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THIS MIXING...WHICH WILL
PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR SUN NGT-MONDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CA-NV AND PRODUCE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NE SFC FLOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE
INVERSION CONDITIONS RESULTING IN LIMITED HEATING FOR VALLEYS BUT
PUSH TEMPS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SUNDAY.
MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC ENERGY TO ENTER THE WEST COAST...FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE SIERRA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT.  RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INVERSIONS IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO PREVENT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND.

ECMWF REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT AND AGGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY ENTERING
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.  THUS HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHANCE OR
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  GFS
AND IT ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ENERGY...WITH A WARMER
AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.  BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.

WINDS MAY INCREASE AFTER 08Z TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
OREGON.  GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS COULD REACH 30KTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERN SIERRA RIDGE WINDS NEAR 40-50 KTS. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KHNX 211057
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
257 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT DRY AND WARMING WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO KERN
COUNTY AND A EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WAS RATHER LIGHT. RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME NORTHWARD BOUND ECHOES FROM FRESNO
NORTH INTO YOSEMITE AND THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IN THE VERY FAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
FORECAST MODELS RACE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTH STATE
TONIGHT HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
HANFORD FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
SIERRA WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DECLINE BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, OVER
KERN COUNTY THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND GRAPEVINE AREA MOUNTAINS. BEGINNING LATER
SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED BY ALL MODELS TO
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL QUITE EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE
STORM TRACK WELL NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE HOWEVER ON THANKSGIVING, THE ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND DRIVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONG ANTICYLONE IN PLACE. FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IT WILL BE DRY EITHER WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT I DON`T SEE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE BIG
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST IF AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MIGHT GET UNDER A RIDGE IN LATE NOVEMBER. &&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT SOME IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE DUE TO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. ACROSS THE DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KSGX 211031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...THERE WERE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG W OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATED INCREASING
WLY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 4 MB SAN-IPL.

THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG W OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES TODAY. DRY NW FLOW WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOL TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR AND WARMER MONDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES INLAND FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST GUSTS LESS THAN
35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
211020Z...MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z SAT. SCT-BKN CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 1.5K TO 3.5K FT MSL OVERNIGHT...WITH TOPS RISING TO FL050 ON
SAT. CIG DETAIL AND TIMING UNCERTAIN AT VARIOUS TAF SITES. EXPECT
ANY AREAS OF BKN-OVC CIGS TO SCATTER NEAR THE COAST AFTER 17Z ON
SAT...BUT REMAIN BACKED UP AGAINST SOME COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY...LOCALLY OBSCURING THE TERRAIN ABOVE 3K FEET.
WIDESPREAD 1-3SM VIS IN FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TO 5SM OR MORE BY 17Z.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z ON SAT.
LOCAL 25-30 KT WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES THROUGH
18Z...RESULTING IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE DESERT SLOPES...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...JAD

000
FXUS65 KPSR 210927
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PROGESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURING OVER
NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS WERE
SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW
0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
SUN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

000
FXUS66 KMTR 210647
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
850 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY HAD NEARLY EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN THE NORTH
BAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END ELSEWHERE BY MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A WET GROUND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE EARLY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND TO ADD PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS WERE LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH FELL. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE NORTH BAY RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH
AS A HALF INCH FELL. MOST OF THE RAIN-SHELTERED VALLEYS FROM SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS
WELL AS AT A FEW OF THE WINDIER SPOTS NEAR SEA LEVEL.

FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE THE
LAST FOR A WHILE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DRY PATTERN RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND AND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THERE ARE...
HOWEVER...SOME EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z
ECWMF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT A FAST-MOVING
FRONT MAY CLIP THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT IN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. NO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR MRY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND AREAS OF GROUND FOG
AROUND STS THROUGH 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND MRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE SCT
CONDITINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
          ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 210558 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
958 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TAPERING OFF
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS SO FAR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN SBA COUNTY...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
FRONTAL BAND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MOST OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF SANTA
BARBARA AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT ANY AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 7000
FEET ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES...BUT COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500
FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AS SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLY ISSUED FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS. THE COOLING WILL BE A
RESULT OF CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP TO
NORMAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A CURIOUS BACK DOOR SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
ON WED BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT`S IMPACT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS TUE/WED BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL SO WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0558Z.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.  AT LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH AT 08Z TONIGHT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE FOR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT 09Z...THEN THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE TO
60 PERCENT BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP...MVFR
CATEGORY CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KEKA 210531 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS NEAR THE COAST...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AND LIGHTER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA PER HPC
FRONTAL ANALYSIS...WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONT. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA
INCLUDE 1.54 INCHES IN CRESCENT CITY AND 2.02 IN HONEYDEW...WITH
MOST AREAS IN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY REPORTING 0.70 TO 1.60 INCHES OF
PRECIP. IN MENDOCINO COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 1.00 INLAND. ONLY A FEW SNOW TOTALS
ARE AVAILABLE SO FAR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW FELL BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 FT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDOCINO. EXPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE FOR THE
FAR EASTERN HUMBOLDT MOUNTAINS SUCH AS SOUTH FORK PASS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS SNOW
FLURRIES MAY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FT OR BELOW. THAT SAID...THE
COASTAL HILLS MAY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRYING ON SATURDAY
AS TODAY`S STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE VIGOROUS...BUT THE MAIN BULK OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM...WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS AND QPF TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 INCHES WITH LESS OVER
MENDOCINO AND UP TO 0.75 OVER THE SMITH RIVER BASIN.

THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE SUNDAY STORM MOVING INLAND FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE E PAC
BY MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE BUT THE EFFECT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS WORK ON BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SLOWING
DOWN THE TIMING WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD. CMC

MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TO THE
WATERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHEN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. ENP/HANSON PLOTS SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD
SWELL TRAIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS BY MID WEEK. HENRY

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING  MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. HENRY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

000
FXUS65 KREV 210530 AAB
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
SYSTEM WINDING DOWN FOR OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SRN NV
AND ERN GREAT BASIN AND DYNAMICS SHIFT WELL OFF TO THE EAST. RDG
WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVRNGT. WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS CONT TO DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY AND
WARNING LVLS. WL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. WL ALSO CLEAN UP ZONE WORDING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST AND NR THE OR
BORDER. REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES OUT BY 10 PM.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/

UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.

WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.

EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.

AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.

AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE

AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.

FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK
CLEARS UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KSGX 210524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ROUNDING POINT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A BRIEFLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE LOSING THEIR PUNCH
AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS HAS
FORMED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING BUT IT IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WHILE WE EXPECT SOME CLOUD EXPANSION OVERNIGHT
UNDERNEATH A WEAK INVERSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A THICK SOLID
OVERCAST IS UNLIKELY. AND WITHOUT A SOLID OVERCAST...CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE ARE MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE DRIZZLE FROM
THE FORECAST AND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THEN ON SATURDAY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN THE
INVERSION AND ANY MORNING CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NO REAL SIGN OF ANY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ON THE HORIZON THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
210500Z...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WITH BASE 1000 FT MSL AND LOCAL VSBY 4-6SM AS A WEAK MARINE LAYER
FRONT EASES IN AND DISSIPATES. A WEAK TROF WILL CAUSE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRATUS WITH BASE AROUND 3000 FT MSL EARLY THROUGH MID SAT
AM. PARTLY CLOUDY W OF MTS REST OF DAY WITH SCT040 STRATOCU IN WAKE
OF TROF. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH BASE 1500 FT MSL EXPECTED MAINLY SAN
DIEGO CO CSTL ZONE LATE THIS EVENING WITH EARLY CLEARING SUN AM AS
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS.


.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...MACKECHNIE

000
FXUS66 KHNX 210520
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
920 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009



.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL CA AROUND MDNT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE PARK.
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS PRECIP NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR NW KERN CO. WHETHER
IT MAKES IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. LEFT SOME
SMALL CHANCE POPS OVERNITE AS FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE THRU THERE.

CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE VALLEY SAT. CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
FRI AS WELL.


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY AFFECTED THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE PASSES. TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FORECAST VALUES
AROUND BAKERSFIELD DUE WARMING DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
TEHACHAPIS. PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SE JUST
REACHING THE NORTH PORTIONS OF YOSEMITE AND MERCED COUNTY. RADAR
INDICATES THE RAIN BAND IS NARROW AND MAY ONLY PROVIDE LIGHT
AMOUNTS RAIN OVER THE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN SW-NE ALONG WITH A
95KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS PROG THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA AROUND 06Z OUTPACING THE FRONT
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER YOSEMITE
AND QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UP SLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG IN SJV WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PERHAPS BY TUESDAY.

&&


.AVIATION...
EXPECT SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING DUE
TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS IN ADDITION TO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BINGHAM/MV
AVN/FW...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

000
FXUS66 KSTO 210508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW E OF NORCAL...PCPN HAS
DECREASED OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPE PCPN
CONTINUING OVER THE W SLOPE SIERNEV. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS THIS
EVENING AND CANCEL THE WSW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS LESS THAN .10 INCH
OF ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROF AND NWLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
COASTAL MTNS HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY...STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM
OVERNITE. IF STRATUS/FOG DOES NOT FORM FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WE THINK THAT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VERTICAL
MIXING WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO FORM A STRATUS LAYER...AND THE VALLEY
WILL CLOUD-UP/CLOUD-OVER IN THE MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL THEN LIFT
INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK...BUT THEN SHOULD ERODE/BURN OFF DURING THE
DAY ON SAT. THE UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS IN THE SIERNEV
FOOTHILLS...WHERE SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNITE. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MTNS...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AS WELL.     JHM


.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WARNING AREA TODAY WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST THROUGH STOCKTON AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  SINCE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED AND THE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORIES...HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVED INTO INTERIOR NRN CAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE NRN
SAC VALLEY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.  EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID IN THE
PRECIP TOTAL.  PRECIP VALUES IN THE SIERRA RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 0.20
TO 0.95 INCHES TODAY SO FAR.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THUS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNRISE TO
JUST UNDER 2500 FT FROM THE NRN COASTALS TO THE SRN CASCADES AND
3000 TO 3500 FT OVER THE SIERRA WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEYS MAYBE A
BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED.  HOWEVER A WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND
COMPONENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT OF THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 PM OVER
THE NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY AND DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE BURNEY BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING.  THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE WINDS.  RIGHT NOW THE WINDS
MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO FORM.

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL ENSUE OVER THE NRN CAL SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SKIMS NRN CAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN PLACE.  JMC

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING MILD AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH VALLEY DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA COULD BRUSH NORCAL THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.   JBB

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY
ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS AROUND
3000-4000 FT FOR TONIGHT. THE FOOTHILLS MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG/STRATUS BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONG WSW
WIND GUSTS 40 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER RIDGETOPS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  EK

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS66 KMTR 210449
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
850 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY HAD NEARLY EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN THE NORTH
BAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END ELSEWHERE BY MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A WET GROUND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE EARLY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND TO ADD PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS WERE LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH FELL. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE NORTH BAY RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH
AS A HALF INCH FELL. MOST OF THE RAIN-SHELTERED VALLEYS FROM SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS
WELL AS AT A FEW OF THE WINDIER SPOTS NEAR SEA LEVEL.

FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE THE
LAST FOR A WHILE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DRY PATTERN RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND AND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THERE ARE...
HOWEVER...SOME EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z
ECWMF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT A FAST-MOVING
FRONT MAY CLIP THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT IN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE SF BAY AREA WITH WINDS NOW WESTERLY. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
TONIGHT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO LOW CEILINGS.
HOWEVER STS COULD GET SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
A POSSIBLE SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BACK EDGE OF FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AFTER 02Z WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING
OFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MRY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
          ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS


$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

000
FXUS66 KLOX 210441
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TAPERING OFF TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS SO FAR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN SBA COUNTY...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONTAL
BAND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF SANTA BARBARA AS THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 7000 FEET ACROSS SOUTH FACING
SLOPES...BUT COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLY ISSUED FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS. THE COOLING WILL BE A RESULT
OF CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE
WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A CURIOUS BACK DOOR SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
ON WED BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT`S IMPACT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS TUE/WED BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL SO WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0430Z.
CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...LOOK FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE ON
INCREASE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. ANY CEILINGS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2500
FOOT RANGE.

KLAX...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH CEILING LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CEILING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1500 TO 2500
FOOT RANGE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KLAX.

KBUR...FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A CEILING WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CEILING HEIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT RANGE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KBUR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS65 KPSR 210304
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK OK AS EXPLAINED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.  NO UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING EL CENTRO...
IMPERIAL AND YUMA SATURDAY...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
SUN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

000
FXUS65 KREV 210257 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.

WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.

EXPECT SNOW TO CONINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.

AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.

AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE

AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.

FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK CLEARS
UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS66 KSTO 210103 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
500 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WARNING AREA TODAY WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST THROUGH STOCKTON AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  SINCE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED AND THE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORIES...HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVED INTO INTERIOR NRN CAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE NRN
SAC VALLEY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET.  EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID IN THE
PRECIP TOTAL.  PRECIP VALUES IN THE SIERRA RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 0.20
TO 0.95 INCHES TODAY SO FAR.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THUS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNRISE TO
JUST UNDER 2500 FT FROM THE NRN COASTALS TO THE SRN CASCADES AND
3000 TO 3500 FT OVER THE SIERRA WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEYS MAYBE A
BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED.  HOWEVER A WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND
COMPONENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT OF THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 PM OVER
THE NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY AND DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE BURNEY BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING.  THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE WINDS.  RIGHT NOW THE WINDS
MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO FORM.

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL ENSUE OVER THE NRN CAL SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SKIMS NRN CAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN PLACE.  JMC

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING MILD AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH VALLEY DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA COULD BRUSH NORCAL THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.   JBB

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR KRDD-KRBL VCNTY HAD SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD BUT OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT THE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING
SACRAMENTO AREA TAF SITES. FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS BECOMING
3000-4000 FT FOR TONIGHT. STRONG S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING OVER RIDGETOPS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.  JBB/EK

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN /
EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN
PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA
/ NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$