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000
FXUS66 KLOX 300006 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPAGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0000Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AFFECT KSBP AND KSMX LATER
THIS EVENING THRU MID MORNING WED. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR KOXR AND KLAX. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KPMD
AND KWJF WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY MAINLY W WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS 14Z-18Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 300006 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPAGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0000Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AFFECT KSBP AND KSMX LATER
THIS EVENING THRU MID MORNING WED. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING FOR KOXR AND KLAX. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED. THERE IS
ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KPMD
AND KWJF WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY MAINLY W WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS 14Z-18Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 292330
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT DUE TO EXTRA
HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOMORROW
EVENING SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER LESS HUMID NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS
APPARENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING VALUES 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES
AROUND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH IS ABOUT 110 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY RESULT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A WARM HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES...SLIGHTLY COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...SOLID STRATUS FIELD JUST
OFFSHORE IS STARTING THE INITIAL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINS COMPRESSED AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT RELATIVELY MILD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE AROUND SF BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS TOMORROW MORNING COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT TERMINAL EARLY. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS TO RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 292330
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT DUE TO EXTRA
HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOMORROW
EVENING SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER LESS HUMID NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS
APPARENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING VALUES 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES
AROUND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH IS ABOUT 110 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY RESULT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A WARM HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES...SLIGHTLY COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...SOLID STRATUS FIELD JUST
OFFSHORE IS STARTING THE INITIAL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINS COMPRESSED AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT RELATIVELY MILD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
STRATUS PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE AROUND SF BAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY CIGS TOMORROW MORNING COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT TERMINAL EARLY. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS TO RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 292310
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
410 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







000
FXUS66 KHNX 292310
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
410 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 30 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 292226
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
326 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NIGHT BY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO NW CAL CAUSING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF TRINITY
COUNTY TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COAST REMAIN MODERATE.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING; MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BEING JOINED TODAY BY A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE, THE FIRST IS NOW NE OF
35N135W AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

THE SECOND OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CAL
AND INTO OREGON AT ABOUT THE TIME WHEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REACHES THE AREA...DURING
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TRINITY, NE MENDOCINO, AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE PLENTY TO BLAST THROUGH THIS CAP. MKN

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WEAKEST DAY FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, BUT FRIDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF NW CAL. I WILL SAY THE
06Z GFS IS TRYING TO POP CONVECTION AGAIN ON THU, BUT NOT HOPING
ON BOARD QUITE YET. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. BFG ON
THU AND FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEBULOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POORLY DEFINED AND HARD TO TIME
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS.
LAPSE RATE LOOK DECENT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER TO OVERCOME. WITHOUT THE MOISTURE AND EXTRA LIFT FROM
A SHORT-WAVE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT
INTO DEEP STORMS. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN.

.LONG-RANGE (SAT THROUGH TUE)...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN
THE MODEL DATA. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT AND SUN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. ON MON
AND TUE...THE GFS AND ECWMF TRY TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS TRANSITION. THE GFS DOES SHOW
INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY ON MON AND TUE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL.
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR STEEP SEAS
OF 7-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND WINDS OF 20-25 KT. NORTHERLIES MAY REACH
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW END GALES HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MWW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS HUGGING THE COAST AT 3PM WHILE TOWERING CU
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FORK RIDGE LINE AND FURTHER EAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND UP EEL RIVER VALLEY PUSHING PAST KFOT
AFTER 2200 PDT WITH WITH VSBYS ALSO BECOMING TO IFR. A SHORT WAVE OFF
THE COAST WILL BE GRAZING THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE ISOLD CBS AND TSTMS TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. DEAN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA







000
FXUS66 KEKA 292226
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
326 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NIGHT BY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO NW CAL CAUSING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER TO ALL AREAS TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF TRINITY
COUNTY TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COAST REMAIN MODERATE.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING; MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BEING JOINED TODAY BY A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE, THE FIRST IS NOW NE OF
35N135W AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

THE SECOND OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CAL
AND INTO OREGON AT ABOUT THE TIME WHEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REACHES THE AREA...DURING
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TRINITY, NE MENDOCINO, AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE PLENTY TO BLAST THROUGH THIS CAP. MKN

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WEAKEST DAY FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, BUT FRIDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF NW CAL. I WILL SAY THE
06Z GFS IS TRYING TO POP CONVECTION AGAIN ON THU, BUT NOT HOPING
ON BOARD QUITE YET. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. BFG ON
THU AND FRI...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEBULOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POORLY DEFINED AND HARD TO TIME
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING STORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS.
LAPSE RATE LOOK DECENT...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A MID LEVEL
STABLE LAYER TO OVERCOME. WITHOUT THE MOISTURE AND EXTRA LIFT FROM
A SHORT-WAVE...IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOPMENT
INTO DEEP STORMS. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN.

.LONG-RANGE (SAT THROUGH TUE)...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN
THE MODEL DATA. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT AND SUN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. ON MON
AND TUE...THE GFS AND ECWMF TRY TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER WITH THIS TRANSITION. THE GFS DOES SHOW
INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY ON MON AND TUE...SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS AS A SHORT PERIOD SWELL.
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR STEEP SEAS
OF 7-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS AND WINDS OF 20-25 KT. NORTHERLIES MAY REACH
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW END GALES HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MWW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS HUGGING THE COAST AT 3PM WHILE TOWERING CU
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FORK RIDGE LINE AND FURTHER EAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND UP EEL RIVER VALLEY PUSHING PAST KFOT
AFTER 2200 PDT WITH WITH VSBYS ALSO BECOMING TO IFR. A SHORT WAVE OFF
THE COAST WILL BE GRAZING THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE ISOLD CBS AND TSTMS TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY. DEAN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 292219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
319 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal through mid-week. Hot afternoon temperatures
this week with a delta breeze each day bringing decent cooling at
night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Northern California remains in southwesterly flow aloft between the
massive Four Corners ridge and an approaching Gulf of Alaska
trough. Some sprinkles fell early this morning when a weak vort
pulse combined with mid to upper level monsoonal moisture but no
further vorticity pulses are expected over the next 24-hours.
Monsoonal moisture continues to rotate clockwise over the Sierra
Nevada this afternoon. Orographic forcing over the Sierra will
result in another round of isolated thunderstorms over and east of
the crest. Most activity will remain east of the crest as a result
of upper level steering winds. Water vapor imagery shows a
secondary monsoonal surge over central/southern California this
afternoon. This moisture will rotate into northern California by
tomorrow afternoon and spawn additional isolated monsoonal
thunderstorms over and east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as the dominate Four Corners high pressure remains
quasistationary. Temperatures will remain hot throughout the
region with only slight differences day to day due to the strength
of onshore flow and the extent of cloud cover.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridging shifts eastward for the end of the week with
slight cooling. Monsoonal moisture will be decreasing with south
to southwest flow aloft keeping most of the thunderstorm and
shower activity along and mainly east of the crest through the
weekend. Weak wave moving through Saturday and Sunday still not
looking very impressive and weather should be mainly dry into
early next week with no significant changes. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds gusting up to 20 kt for the Valley
through 06z then becoming light. Delta breeze around 15-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kt until around 12z then decreasing. Isolated
thunderstorms developing along and east of the Sierra crest
through around 06z. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 292219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
319 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal through mid-week. Hot afternoon temperatures
this week with a delta breeze each day bringing decent cooling at
night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Northern California remains in southwesterly flow aloft between the
massive Four Corners ridge and an approaching Gulf of Alaska
trough. Some sprinkles fell early this morning when a weak vort
pulse combined with mid to upper level monsoonal moisture but no
further vorticity pulses are expected over the next 24-hours.
Monsoonal moisture continues to rotate clockwise over the Sierra
Nevada this afternoon. Orographic forcing over the Sierra will
result in another round of isolated thunderstorms over and east of
the crest. Most activity will remain east of the crest as a result
of upper level steering winds. Water vapor imagery shows a
secondary monsoonal surge over central/southern California this
afternoon. This moisture will rotate into northern California by
tomorrow afternoon and spawn additional isolated monsoonal
thunderstorms over and east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as the dominate Four Corners high pressure remains
quasistationary. Temperatures will remain hot throughout the
region with only slight differences day to day due to the strength
of onshore flow and the extent of cloud cover.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridging shifts eastward for the end of the week with
slight cooling. Monsoonal moisture will be decreasing with south
to southwest flow aloft keeping most of the thunderstorm and
shower activity along and mainly east of the crest through the
weekend. Weak wave moving through Saturday and Sunday still not
looking very impressive and weather should be mainly dry into
early next week with no significant changes. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds gusting up to 20 kt for the Valley
through 06z then becoming light. Delta breeze around 15-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kt until around 12z then decreasing. Isolated
thunderstorms developing along and east of the Sierra crest
through around 06z. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KHNX 292150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD






000
FXUS66 KHNX 292150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A PAIR OF FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS
THE SMOKE FROM THE EL PORTAL...DARK HOLE AND FRENCH WILDFIRES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY
MONDAY HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA. BEHIND THE LOW...AN
UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WAS OVER TUOLUMNE COUNTY. THIS VORTICITY IS
CAUSING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THIS FLOW IS CHANNELING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...CARRYING SMOKE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AND EXTENDED THE SMOKE AS FAR WEST AS HANFORD AS SMOKE
ALOFT CAN BE SEEN FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

THE SECOND PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A DEVELOPING
CELL OVER THE JUNCTION OF MADERA...MONO AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED JUST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...RAISING THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING SO FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK NORTHWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS FORECAST A STEADY GRADUAL WARMING OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
04Z WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 292126 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

WINDS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...HAVE TURNED A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST 10 TO 15 KTS BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN AFTER 00Z.
ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...WATERS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 292126 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

WINDS FOR KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...HAVE TURNED A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST 10 TO 15 KTS BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN AFTER 00Z.
ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...WATERS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS66 KMTR 292126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT DUE TO EXTRA
HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOMORROW
EVENING SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER LESS HUMID NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS
APPARENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING VALUES 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES
AROUND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH IS ABOUT 110 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY RESULT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A WARM HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES...SLIGHTLY COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT TUESDAY...

NOT A SOLID STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING. LITTLE ONSHORE PUSH FROM
PACIFIC STRATUS AND THEN SOME EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE BAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS. THIS FAVORS OAK FOR STRATUS AND LOW CIGS
IN THE EARLY MORNING MORE THAN SFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND VFR PREVAILS. WILL
FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND THE TERMINAL TONIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH NO CIGS GIVEN
THE OCCURRENCES OF LAST NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE APPROACH BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE HIT OR
MISS AND SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 292126
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT DUE TO EXTRA
HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY TOMORROW
EVENING SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER LESS HUMID NIGHTS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS
APPARENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING VALUES 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES
AROUND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH IS ABOUT 110 TO 120 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY RESULT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A WARM HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES...SLIGHTLY COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE LOOKS
LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT TUESDAY...

NOT A SOLID STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING. LITTLE ONSHORE PUSH FROM
PACIFIC STRATUS AND THEN SOME EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE BAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS. THIS FAVORS OAK FOR STRATUS AND LOW CIGS
IN THE EARLY MORNING MORE THAN SFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND VFR PREVAILS. WILL
FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND THE TERMINAL TONIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH NO CIGS GIVEN
THE OCCURRENCES OF LAST NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE APPROACH BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE HIT OR
MISS AND SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 292124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO
COUNTY NORTH AND EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES. FASTER STORM MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWED
HEATING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE TO THE EAST AND REDEVELOP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING CONVECTION THUS FAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE WILL SEE FEW...IF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE OVERALL FLOW...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS A REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOBE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AND
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MINERAL AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES SHOW PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERWHELMING...THE LACK OF STORM MOTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF MID LVL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO FALLON
TO NEAR WINNEMUCCA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONO...
MINERAL...SOUTHERN LYON AND THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER...
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...JUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
PROBABLE. AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS IN
ALPINE...DOUGLAS...STOREY AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING A
LITTLE FASTER OVERALL...BUT AGAIN THE SLOWEST MOTIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING FASTER WITH
DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYERS THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THIS TROUGH MAY DISSIPATE OR MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE
BASIN, WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NEVADA EAST OF
RENO AND CARSON CITY. ON TODAY`S GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THERE MAY BE OTHER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE THAT WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY KEEPING THE TROUGH
NEAR CALIFORNIA INTACT, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY BEING SHEARED OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY DECREASE. PREVIOUS DAYS OF GUIDANCE WERE FAVORING THIS
TROUGH HOLDING TOGETHER AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST, BRINGING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESTORING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN ALL AREAS, ALTHOUGH WE DID
PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER CA-NV. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ERODING THE GREAT BASIN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS FOR THE SIERRA
OR WESTERN NV. SINCE THERE IS NO DISTINCT MECHANISM CLEARING OUT
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
OUR REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ANY LOCATION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST ARE
LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NV THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS THRU 00Z AROUND
THE TAHOE BASIN, AND THRU 02Z FROM KRNO-KCXP TO KMMH. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY AFFECTING LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NV.

FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BTWN 19Z-04Z, WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNEMUCCA-FALLON-BRIDGEPORT
LINE. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 292124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO
COUNTY NORTH AND EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES. FASTER STORM MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWED
HEATING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE TO THE EAST AND REDEVELOP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING CONVECTION THUS FAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE WILL SEE FEW...IF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE OVERALL FLOW...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS A REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOBE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AND
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MINERAL AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES SHOW PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERWHELMING...THE LACK OF STORM MOTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF MID LVL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO FALLON
TO NEAR WINNEMUCCA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONO...
MINERAL...SOUTHERN LYON AND THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER...
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...JUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
PROBABLE. AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS IN
ALPINE...DOUGLAS...STOREY AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING A
LITTLE FASTER OVERALL...BUT AGAIN THE SLOWEST MOTIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING FASTER WITH
DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYERS THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THIS TROUGH MAY DISSIPATE OR MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE
BASIN, WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NEVADA EAST OF
RENO AND CARSON CITY. ON TODAY`S GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THERE MAY BE OTHER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE THAT WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY KEEPING THE TROUGH
NEAR CALIFORNIA INTACT, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY BEING SHEARED OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY DECREASE. PREVIOUS DAYS OF GUIDANCE WERE FAVORING THIS
TROUGH HOLDING TOGETHER AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST, BRINGING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESTORING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN ALL AREAS, ALTHOUGH WE DID
PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER CA-NV. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ERODING THE GREAT BASIN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS FOR THE SIERRA
OR WESTERN NV. SINCE THERE IS NO DISTINCT MECHANISM CLEARING OUT
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
OUR REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ANY LOCATION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST ARE
LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NV THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS THRU 00Z AROUND
THE TAHOE BASIN, AND THRU 02Z FROM KRNO-KCXP TO KMMH. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY AFFECTING LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NV.

FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BTWN 19Z-04Z, WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNEMUCCA-FALLON-BRIDGEPORT
LINE. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS66 KLOX 292106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 292106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/230 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 292055
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
153 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE
HEAT RANGING FROM 112 TO 115 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON
WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A CHANGE TO SOME OF THE FORECAST THINKING THIS HOUR AS IT
PERTAINS TO TEMPERATURES. IN SHORT...WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND SITTING ALMOST RIGHT UNDER A 594DM HIGH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH 106 DEGREES AT
PHOENIX AND 107 AT YUMA. AGGRAVATING THE WARMTH WAS THE VERY WARM
START TO THE MORNING/DAY...WITH 92 DEGREES OBSERVED AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR AIRPORT...WHICH WILL SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE DAY IF
TEMPS DONT COOL OFF BELOW THAT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES FOR WHAT IS SHOWN IN
THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE THE ECMWF...THE FORECAST DAYTIME
HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS
FOR PHOENIX AND YUMA AT 111 AND 113 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THIS SHIFT TO ALERT EVERYONE TO THIS HAZARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BACK INTO THE 107-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR OUR EASTERN
ZONES/LOWER AZ DESERTS... POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEPING BACK INTO THE STATE. TEMPS OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...RANGING 110-113 DEGREES MOST SITES. OTHER THAN THIS IMPORTANT
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION CONCERNING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL
APPLIES.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
THE DESERTS WILL STAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24...WELL EAST
AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 292031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
131 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW COOLING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE
ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRIER...MORE
STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX
OF 4.9. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO STABLE...AND SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE REASON FOR THE DRYING IS THE FLOW
TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE OR UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS STILL
HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SINCE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE FOR AT LEAST THE PAST TWO
RUNS...AND SINCE THE GEM IS SHOWING IT AS WELL...HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS
AND VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ALSO...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COOL DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500
MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
292015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z. VIS MAY
DROP TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE COASTAL
MESAS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 292031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
131 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW COOLING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE
ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRIER...MORE
STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX
OF 4.9. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO STABLE...AND SO THUNDERSTORMS WERE REMOVED
FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE REASON FOR THE DRYING IS THE FLOW
TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM
CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE OR UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS STILL
HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SINCE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE FOR AT LEAST THE PAST TWO
RUNS...AND SINCE THE GEM IS SHOWING IT AS WELL...HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS
AND VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ALSO...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COOL DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500
MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
292015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z. VIS MAY
DROP TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ON THE COASTAL
MESAS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 292021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MOISTURE FROM HERNAN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BUT HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT SO FAR. MOST MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA,
BUT GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 600 MB. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ALSO
INDICATE AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT
SEEING ANY REFLECTION OF THIS SHORT WAVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE BY WED
MORNING, SOME HAVE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SLO COUNTY AND OTHERS OVER
VENTURA COUNTY. HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED OR OTHERWISE, THOUGH MODELS
HISTORICALLY HAVE NOT HANDLED NORTHWARD PROPOGATING WAVES WELL,
PARTICULARLY THEIR MOISTURE AND STABILITY PARAMETERS. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EXISTENCE OF A SHORT WAVE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAX-SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND. IF IT STARTS TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ADDED.

SHOWER/CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE TRADITIONAL MTN/DESERT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH
MODELS ARE INDICATING THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PERMIT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY PROBABLY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER BUT COMPENSATED AT LEAST IN PART BY THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY.

A LITTLE LESS HUMIDITY THU/FRI AND NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BUT
WITH WARMER TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE.

INCREASED NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY THU EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY. ALSO QUITE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE HIGH
80S OR LOW 90S NEAR THE BEACHES IN SRN SBA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...LA COUNTY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. GFS KEEPS THIS PLUME EAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT ALONG
THE LA COUNTY BORDER. FOR NOW AM LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY BUT HAVE
ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND SILENT POPS
(<15). A TROF MOVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
A COOLING/DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGHS DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER,
ESPECIALLY FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291802
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS WITH THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MARINE LAYER LOCATION... DURATION... AND
INTENSITY.

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY 12Z-16Z.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 291752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON/SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SANTA CRUZ. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH ALTO
CUMULUS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE SAN MATEO AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
IS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY THE
MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 1200Z KOAK SOUNDING IS SHOWING THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SATURATED THAN IT WAS DURING THE 0000Z RAOB
WITH MOISTURE MAKING IT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
REACHING THE GROUND TODAY SEEMS PRETTY GOOD. THEREFORE THE
SLIGHTLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL NOT
BE INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL
REASONS FOR THIS. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200Z NAM12 IS INDICATING MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30(C) WHICH PUSHES NORTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIG FACTOR AGAINST ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
IS THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE SUCH A VORT MAX OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITHOUT A LIFTING MECHANISM IT IS DIFFICULT TO
RELEASE WHAT EVER ENERGY IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

BOTH THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE
THE MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT TUESDAY...

NOT A SOLID STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING. LITTLE ONSHORE PUSH FROM
PACIFIC STRATUS AND THEN SOME EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE BAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS. THIS FAVORS OAK FOR STRATUS AND LOW CIGS
IN THE EARLY MORNING MORE THAN SFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND VFR PREVAILS. WILL
FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND THE TERMINAL TONIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH NO CIGS GIVEN
THE OCCURRENCES OF LAST NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE APPROACH BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE HIT OR
MISS AND SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 291752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON/SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SANTA CRUZ. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH ALTO
CUMULUS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE SAN MATEO AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
IS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY THE
MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 1200Z KOAK SOUNDING IS SHOWING THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SATURATED THAN IT WAS DURING THE 0000Z RAOB
WITH MOISTURE MAKING IT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
REACHING THE GROUND TODAY SEEMS PRETTY GOOD. THEREFORE THE
SLIGHTLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL NOT
BE INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL
REASONS FOR THIS. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200Z NAM12 IS INDICATING MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30(C) WHICH PUSHES NORTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIG FACTOR AGAINST ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
IS THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE SUCH A VORT MAX OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITHOUT A LIFTING MECHANISM IT IS DIFFICULT TO
RELEASE WHAT EVER ENERGY IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

BOTH THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE
THE MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT TUESDAY...

NOT A SOLID STRATUS SHIELD THIS MORNING. LITTLE ONSHORE PUSH FROM
PACIFIC STRATUS AND THEN SOME EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE BAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS. THIS FAVORS OAK FOR STRATUS AND LOW CIGS
IN THE EARLY MORNING MORE THAN SFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND VFR PREVAILS. WILL
FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHT AND MODELS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND THE TERMINAL TONIGHT BUT WILL GO WITH NO CIGS GIVEN
THE OCCURRENCES OF LAST NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE APPROACH BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE HIT OR
MISS AND SO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:48 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291651
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR MONSOON WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
WILL KEEP THE DESERTS DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS --AT BEST--
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET
CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT
STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291651
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON
REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR MONSOON WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 700-300MB FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS IN THE
SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW REDUCTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING WITH TIME...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STORM TRIGGERS NOTED FROM ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR ENSEMBLES THROUGH THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ARE NIL.
WILL KEEP THE DESERTS DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS --AT BEST--
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL EAST AND NORTH OF PHOENIX.

THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THINGS GET
CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE DISTANT
STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevada. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevadas. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 291610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows the monsoonal moisture push that
brought some isolated sprinkles to valley early this morning is
in the process of rotating clockwise into Nevada. Additional
moisture will rotate in from the south over the next couple of
days but the moisture will struggle to find sufficient lift to
initiate convection outside of orographic lift generated from the
Sierra Nevadas. Steering flow aloft will guide convective cells
primarily east of the Sierra Nevada crest.

The overall pattern will remain fairly consistent through the end
of the week as high pressure remains over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will remain hot throughout the region with only
slight differences day to day due to the strength of onshore flow
and the extent of cloud cover.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isolated showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 291608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655 AS WELL... AND WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KMTR 291603
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON/SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SANTA CRUZ. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH
ALTO CUMULUS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE SAN MATEO
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDS IS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY
THE MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 1200Z KOAK SOUNDING IS SHOWING THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SATURATED THAN IT WAS DURING THE 0000Z RAOB
WITH MOISTURE MAKING IT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION REACHING
THE GROUND TODAY SEEMS PRETTY GOOD. THEREFORE THE SLIGHTLY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL NOT
BE INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL
REASONS FOR THIS. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200Z NAM12 IS INDICATING MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30(C) WHICH PUSHES NORTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIG FACTOR AGAINST ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
IS THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE SUCH A VORT MAX OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITHOUT A LIFTING MECHANISM IT IS DIFFICULT TO
RELEASE WHAT EVER ENERGY IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

BOTH THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE
THE MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME...HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE. SIMILAR SET
UP TO YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CIGS ACTUALLY BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE REGION. SODARS INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...FEELING A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIGS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS FOR
KSFO AND KOAK. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TERMINAL VFR THIS AM IS KSJC.
FORECASTING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A HOLE OVER KSFO AS FAR AS LOW CIGS ARE CONCERNED. CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCLUDED A 4 HR
TEMPO FOR CIGS AOB 1K FEET THIS MORNING. IF CIGS IMPACT KSFO
CLEARING SHOULD BE 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS MAY IMPACT
APPROACH BUT HARD TO TELL GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:13 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291603
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON/SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF SANTA CRUZ. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...CURRENTLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH
ALTO CUMULUS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE SAN MATEO
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
CLOUDS IS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH IS BEING ABSORBED BY
THE MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 1200Z KOAK SOUNDING IS SHOWING THAT
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE SATURATED THAN IT WAS DURING THE 0000Z RAOB
WITH MOISTURE MAKING IT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. WITH THIS IN MIND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION REACHING
THE GROUND TODAY SEEMS PRETTY GOOD. THEREFORE THE SLIGHTLY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL NOT
BE INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL
REASONS FOR THIS. THERE IS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE 1200Z NAM12 IS INDICATING MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30(C) WHICH PUSHES NORTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIG FACTOR AGAINST ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST
IS THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE SUCH A VORT MAX OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITHOUT A LIFTING MECHANISM IT IS DIFFICULT TO
RELEASE WHAT EVER ENERGY IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM.

BOTH THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO MOVE
THE MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME...HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE. SIMILAR SET
UP TO YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CIGS ACTUALLY BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE REGION. SODARS INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...FEELING A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIGS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS FOR
KSFO AND KOAK. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TERMINAL VFR THIS AM IS KSJC.
FORECASTING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A HOLE OVER KSFO AS FAR AS LOW CIGS ARE CONCERNED. CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCLUDED A 4 HR
TEMPO FOR CIGS AOB 1K FEET THIS MORNING. IF CIGS IMPACT KSFO
CLEARING SHOULD BE 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS MAY IMPACT
APPROACH BUT HARD TO TELL GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:13 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 291602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 291602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY. THIS EVENING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE NEAR SBA
AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS THERE. 12Z NAM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE FLOW THAN EARLIER RUNS AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME BRIEF GUSTS
FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE GAVIOTA AND SAN MARCOS PASS
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HOW THINGS ARE GOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW TO LEAN WITH THIS ONE.

HERNAN MOISTURE TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT AS A LITTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKED AT BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST COULD NOT FIND
ANYTHING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION, EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE
RATES WERE JUST NOT SUFFICIENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LAYERS WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS. STILL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE VORT MAX AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I`M
LEANING TOWARDS ADDING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED, AND
THEN LEAVING THE TSTORM CHANCES AS IS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATTER WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA COUNTY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.

THICKER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO THE HIGHS A BIT WEDNESDAY BUT
THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY CALL. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OFFSET THE COOLING MAKING IT FEEL SIMILAR OR EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KSGX 291600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW
WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS ABSENT FROM THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS A DRIER...MORE STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED
CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF 4.9. THIS IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND SO THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON THAT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD POP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE REASON FOR THE
DRYING IS THE FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNING. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A
POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SUNDAY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW. ALSO...LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 291600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
BEING SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRIER
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
BACK TO CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW
WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN. NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS AND FOG...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
SOMETIMES INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS ABSENT FROM THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HERNAN ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS A DRIER...MORE STABLE PROFILE THAN THAT OF 12Z YESTERDAY...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN TO 1.47 INCHES...WITH NO SURFACE BASED
CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF 4.9. THIS IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND SO THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON THAT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD POP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE REASON FOR THE
DRYING IS THE FLOW TURNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST YESTERDAY TO
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
BEING PATCHY AT BEST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
INTERFERENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM HERNAN. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS...THE MOST WE SHOULD GET FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA.

DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT WARMING
OCCURRING...RESULTING IN DAY-TIME HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED IN MORE OF A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNING. BY SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A
POTENTIALLY POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING
GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRYING AND SUPPRESSING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SUNDAY
FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW. ALSO...LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400
FT MSL. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH INLAND 5-10 SM AND COULD REACH
KSNA...KCRQ...AND KSAN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1500Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291433 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 291433 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
730 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO/KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS65 KPSR 291143 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291143 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WELL AWAY FROM PHOENIX AREA TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE EVEN LESS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR WESTERLY DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BETTER STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNAN WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1130Z

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ
VLY WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE...
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A.
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR
CONDS IN MOST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ON THE SBA S COAST AND PROBABLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST.


KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSTO 291123
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
423 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Little overall change to the large scale pattern expected through
the end of the week as strong high pressure remains over the
western US. Moisture will continue to work its way into NorCal
from the south over the next several days continuing a chance for
mainly late day showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Deeper moisture over the area this morning is resulting in some
isolated showers across the region.

Temperatures will remain hot through the week though at least a
light to moderate Delta Breeze is expected to continue providing
some relief to portions of the valley.

Models are hinting at some weakening of the ridge by the weekend
as a weak trough develops along the west coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isold showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 291123
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
423 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Hot afternoon
temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day bringing
decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Little overall change to the large scale pattern expected through
the end of the week as strong high pressure remains over the
western US. Moisture will continue to work its way into NorCal
from the south over the next several days continuing a chance for
mainly late day showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Deeper moisture over the area this morning is resulting in some
isolated showers across the region.

Temperatures will remain hot through the week though at least a
light to moderate Delta Breeze is expected to continue providing
some relief to portions of the valley.

Models are hinting at some weakening of the ridge by the weekend
as a weak trough develops along the west coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. 15-25 kts through delta. Isold showers
possible through 18Z, then afternoon TS over mountains today.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291121
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
421 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME...HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE. SIMILAR SET
UP TO YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CIGS ACTUALLY BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE REGION. SODARS INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...FEELING A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIGS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS FOR
KSFO AND KOAK. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TERMINAL VFR THIS AM IS KSJC.
FORECASTING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A HOLE OVER KSFO AS FAR AS LOW CIGS ARE CONCERNED. CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCLUDED A 4 HR
TEMPO FOR CIGS AOB 1K FEET THIS MORNING. IF CIGS IMPACT KSFO
CLEARING SHOULD BE 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS MAY IMPACT
APPROACH BUT HARD TO TELL GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:13 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 291121
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
421 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME...HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE. SIMILAR SET
UP TO YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CIGS ACTUALLY BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE REGION. SODARS INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...FEELING A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIGS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS FOR
KSFO AND KOAK. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TERMINAL VFR THIS AM IS KSJC.
FORECASTING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A HOLE OVER KSFO AS FAR AS LOW CIGS ARE CONCERNED. CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCLUDED A 4 HR
TEMPO FOR CIGS AOB 1K FEET THIS MORNING. IF CIGS IMPACT KSFO
CLEARING SHOULD BE 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS MAY IMPACT
APPROACH BUT HARD TO TELL GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:13 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KSGX 291113
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRYING OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS UNDERWAY...BUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT WITH SOME RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND
DRYING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRYING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THAT WERE EASTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS THAT WERE AROUND 2 INCHES LATE SUNDAY AND HAD FALLEN
TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY HAVE FALLEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR
THE RIDGE TOPS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN...GENERALLY TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING FROM THAT MOISTURE...BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...COASTAL STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE WORKSTATION WRF
ISN`T OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN...MAINLY BRINGING IT
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP OF
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER DESERTS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A DAY FASTER WITH DRYING AFTER SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER DRYING OF THE GFS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MINOR COOLING FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290945Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND COULD REACH KSAN AND KCRQ FOR A TIME BETWEEN 12-15Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 30/06Z AND
SPREADING 10-15 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS











000
FXUS66 KSGX 291113
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
415 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRYING OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS UNDERWAY...BUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK...BUT WITH SOME RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND
DRYING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN
OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRYING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THAT WERE EASTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING HAD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS THAT WERE AROUND 2 INCHES LATE SUNDAY AND HAD FALLEN
TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES LATE MONDAY HAVE FALLEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR
THE RIDGE TOPS ONTO THE DESERT SLOPES. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
HERNAN...GENERALLY TAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING FROM THAT MOISTURE...BUT
OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...COASTAL STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE WORKSTATION WRF
ISN`T OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN...MAINLY BRINGING IT
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP OF
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER DESERTS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS A DAY FASTER WITH DRYING AFTER SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER DRYING OF THE GFS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MINOR COOLING FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING AS THE MOISTURE
DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290945Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND COULD REACH KSAN AND KCRQ FOR A TIME BETWEEN 12-15Z.
OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 30/06Z AND
SPREADING 10-15 SM INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW-SCT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN A MOIST MONSOON FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
DAY THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
THE MARINE LAYER IS ABSENT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND HAS ONLY
MADE LIMITED INROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CLOUD
EQUATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING UP FROM
THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ENOUGH CLOUDS OR MARINE LAYER HOWEVER TO
REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER 90S IN THE VLYS AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE DESERTS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

A LITTLE EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE LA COUNTY COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISRUPT THE STRATUS
FORMATION BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DO THIS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE OF HERNON WAFTS
NORTHWARD. OPTIMISTS WILL CALL THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND
PESSIMISTS WILL SEE IT AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF DESERT OR MTN TSTMS...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS TO ALLOW FOR INITIATION SO FOR NOW WILL
ONLY GO FOR A SLIGHT CHC. THE CLOUDS WILL KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES
FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AZ.
CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER DRY SW FLOW AND THIS WILL END THE TSTMS
CHC. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND IN
FACT TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER HIGH SITS BETWEEN AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROF
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE EAST PAC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. SO LOOK FOR A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE
INLAND.

THE ONLY OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD
SUNDOWNER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WEAKER NORTH WINDS
THROUGH THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

29/300 AM PDT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KEKA 291042
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
342 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COASTAL REGIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO FOG AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN THE DAY
GENERALLY CLEAR...THEN CLOUD OVER AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
NW CALIFORNIA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER A BIT
ALLOWING FOR A LESS FOGGY DAY THAN MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO NW CAL CAUSING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES LATE
THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TODAY TO THOSE OF MONDAY. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE COAST REMAIN MODERATE.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING; MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
INTO CALIFORNIA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BEING JOINED TODAY BY A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS STOUT SHORTWAVES
MOVING FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE, CURRENTLY NEAR 35N135W.

THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CAL AND INTO OREGON AT
ABOUT THE TIME WHEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AND
DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS TRINITY, NE MENDOCINO, AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THE
BEST DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO BE OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND TO THE NE, BUT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND HORN
THIS AFTERNOON. TO BOIL DOWN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP AT OVER 7DEG C/KM WITH A WEAK STABLE LAYER AROUND
500MB, PWATS ARE AROUND 0.7IN OR BETTER, FREEZING LEVELS AROUND
14KFT, STRONGLY NEG LI`S, PLENTY OF CAPE, AND LIMITED CIN. THE
ONLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETER THAT IS NOT GREAT IS THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. SEEING AS A COUPLE STORMS DEVELOPED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CAP STRONGER THAT WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY, THERE IS NO REASON WHY
STORMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE BROADENED
THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD OF KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS. IF SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY, THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION,
EVEN WITH A STRONGER BUT THINNER CAP AROUND 650MB. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE PLENTY TO BLAST THROUGH THIS CAP. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE WEAKEST DAY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA, BUT FRIDAY
WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF NW CAL. I WILL SAY THE 06Z GFS IS TRYING TO POP CONVECTION
AGAIN ON THU, BUT NOT HOPING ON BOARD QUITE YET. WILL WAIT FOR MORE
MODEL CONSISTENCY. BFG

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
HIGH PWATS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE STABLE MID
LAYER...THOUGH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN THE
MODEL DATA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS STABLE MID LAYER WHICH MAY CAP THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY CHANGES WILL MOST LIKELY
RESULT FROM MORE CLOUD COVER AND/OR MARINE AIR FILTERING INLAND. THE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST HAS BEEN BASED LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT KCEC.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KCEC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE TO
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND KACV THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE INTERACTING
WITH THE PERSISTENT THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSEQUENTLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE THE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION.
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WARNING OR WATCH FOR ZONES 203,
204, OR 283 TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SCATTERED AERIAL COVERAGE IN
EACH ZONE AND NO EXPECTING THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE DRY. THE MAIN
FOCUS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND HORN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER
THE DEL NORTE SISKIYOUS. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR YOLLA BOLLS, WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY, OR FAR NE HUMBOLDT
COUNTY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE
FORECAST. IF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA, MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SHORT LEAD TIME FIRE
WEATHER WARNING. FOR NOW TRUSTING WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
BEST CHANCES. WEDNESDAY`S THREAT LOOKS TO BE FARTHER TO THE NE
THAN TODAY`S. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS66 KHNX 291029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS
IS CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SKIES HAVE
BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWFA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN PUSHING IN AND THE MONSOONAL SURGE THAT
IMPACTED OUR AREA ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT
OF THE CLEARING...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST MAY STREAM INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS
SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE SHOWN 850 MB DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
850-700 MB RH PROGS WITH READINGS THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE. TROPICAL STORM HERNAN IS PROGGED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COLDER OPEN WATERS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE NO IMPACT FOR OUR
AREA OTHER THAN PROVIDING US WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. RH PROGS INDICATING DRY
AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURGE OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPACTING SOUTHEASTERN CA
THIS WEEKEND. 850 MB PROGS AND MID LEVEL RH PROGS ARE INDICATING A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT JUST OT THE EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR CWFA AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS IN CASE
THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PUSHING THE MONSOONAL SURGE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA FROM 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975
KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895

KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
KBFL 07-31      110:1943     60:1916     79:1982     55:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD





000
FXUS65 KREV 291008
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
308 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH
VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY MAINLY TO SPREAD SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION (PWATS >0.75"). THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
FOR TODAY WILL BE INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY FORCING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
ROUGHLY OVER NORTHERN LYON COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER,
LOCATING THESE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PROVES DIFFICULT
WITH THE LARGE MASS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA SO CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM IN THE FORCING ASPECT. STORM LAYER WINDS ARE
LARGELY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE SO COULD SEE HYBRID TYPE STORMS THAT
PRODUCE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER DCAPES
AND HIGHER SUBCLOUD LAYER HUMIDITY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH PWATS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS MONO, MINERAL, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. STORM LAYER WINDS WILL AVERAGE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-20 KTS BUT
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH WHICH MAY FAVOR TRAINING ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG
VORTICITY MAX TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A MODEST CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE
COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER JET MAY FOCUS THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING PARTICULAR FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ALSO INSERT
MENTION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER PERSHING-CHURCHILL
COUNTIES WITH DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE.

BY THURSDAY, THE THREAT TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARDS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A SWATH OF DRIER AIR THAT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME DISAGREEMENT
EXISTS HOWEVER WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN WITH THE GFS
MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM STORM
THREATS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS.
FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE
SIERRA.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEVADA. BY SUNDAY, THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
STARTS TO TURN THE FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST AND TAHOE
BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING TO KICK OFF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND
0.60" UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUD BASES TO INCREASE
TO OVER 15K FEET MSL. MODEST STORM MOTIONS AROUND 15KTS WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND LESS RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1500 J/KG, DEMONSTRATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY POWERFUL OUTFLOW WINDS ON BOTH THOSE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST, PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 0.70-0.9", ALONG WITH FOR
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND HIGHER POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGH SIERRA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF KSVE AND NEAR
KMMH/KBAN WITH A 40% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY HITTING THE
TERMINAL. KRNO, KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL HAVE A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE AT AROUND 25%. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290957
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290957
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290957
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290957
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
257 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS66 KLOX 290534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM
NO SIG WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. S OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMDT COAST AT
AIRPORTS LIKE KLAX AND KLGB. FAST CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS BY MID
MORNING ON TUE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR
TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM
NO SIG WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KMTR 290533
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290533
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290533
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290533
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1033 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO REFORM
NEAR POINT PINOS AND WILL SPREAD INTO MRY AFTER 06Z AND SNS AFTER
08-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WHICH MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KSTO 290413
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
913 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. Very Warm to hot
afternoon temperatures this week with a delta breeze each day
bringing decent cooling at night for the valley.

&&

.Discussion...
Cloud cover during the day and the delta breeze tonight are
helping to trend temperatures cool this evening. Moisture moving
up from the south may bring a few sprinkles overnight but for the
most part the atmosphere is stabilizing this evening. We will
continue to see some cloud cover over the region the next couple
days but there may be a little less during the afternoons that
will likely lead to temperatures being a little bit warmer than
today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon this
week near the crest. No major changes in the weather pattern is
expected this week for the region.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. TS over mountains Tue afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSGX 290358
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
858 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM MID-SUMMER WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL STRIP NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT. THE
00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SHALLOW...WEAK INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAD DEVELOPED BELOW 5K FT...WHILE 5 KT
SE WINDS CONTINUED ABOVE TO AROUND 12K FT. SOME DRYING WAS INDICATED
AS WELL WITH THE PW COMING IN AT 1.48 INCH. MANY SFC STATIONS
REPORTED DRYING AS WELL...WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DROPS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES F TODAY. A THERMAL LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WAS MAINTAINING ONSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 6 MBS.

A DRIER...MORE STABLE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SOCAL WILL DECREASE CHANCES
FOR FURTHER CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FLOW IS
THE RESULT OF A SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK...OPENING THE
DOOR FOR MORE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH JUST
OFF THE COAST WILL COMPLICATE THE PICTURE THEN...AND MAY KEEP THE
BULK OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW JUST EAST OF THE CWA. THAT TROUGH SHOULD
ALSO HELP TO PROP UP THE MARINE LAYER A BIT MORE...ALONG WITH THE
NOCTURNAL CLOUDS/FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

CONVECTION...THE LATEST 00Z NAM RUN SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TOMORROW WITH WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10KT. THIS LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AFTER TUE...SOME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN GETS
PULLED NE TOWARD THE REGION BUT SHOULD BE HIGHER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE A BIT NEXT WEEK...BUT BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOCAL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE SEASONAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER...WITHOUT ANY
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 1100 FT MSL WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD A FEW
MILES INLAND. KSAN AND KCRQ COULD HAVE A CIG FOR A FEW
HOURS...THOUGH THIS IS UNLIKELY AT KSNA. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IS
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MESAS.
MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR 14-16Z. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT/ABOVE 15000 FT MSL WILL OCCUR.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...OCCASIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 12000 FT MSL
WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUE. ADDITIONAL CU/TCU WITH BASES 9000 FT MSL
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND LOCALLY OVER THE DESERTS TUE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS POSSIBLE
TO 35000 FT MSL. VISIBILITY WILL MOSTLY BE UNRESTRICTED THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
845 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL












000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ







000
FXUS66 KLOX 290254
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 290254
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...UPDATE
LOOKS LIKE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECASTER AREA...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS DECENT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY EARLIER
TODAY...TOO MUCH OF A CLOUD SHIELD PREVENTED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE...AND BEST STORM CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CONTINUED TO BE EAST OF LA COUNTY INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF LAX INDICATED A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 700 FT DEEP. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IF THERE WAS ANY SORT OF EDDY TO
HELP WITH LIFT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT SOUTHERN LA COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING WITH A QUICK BURNOFF IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AT ALL. PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT WITH MORE STABLE
SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS BUT A
FEW FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT FELL AS HUMID. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. BY TUESDAY EVENING...LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERNAN BRINGING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION CAPTURES THE DETAILS OF THIS WELL TUE NIGHT-THU.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KMTR 290140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SALINAS VALLEY NEAR GONZALES AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HOLLISTER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS
PULLS TO THE EAST AND BRINGS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA TO AN END. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
HOWEVER GIVEN SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DROPPED AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES TODAY AS A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS COOLED
BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 290139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
640 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0130Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX WAS AROUND
600 FT DEEP. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH LA COAST AFTER 10Z. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
MOIST MID LAYER. EXPECT IFR CIGS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS IF INVERSION RAISES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE ALONG
CENTRAL COAST IN RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8Z-12Z
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS AFTER 18Z TUE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...LESS CONFIDENCE
WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ONLY
SCATTERED STRATUS EARLY TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KSGX 290050 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
550 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000
FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT











000
FXUS66 KSGX 290050 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
550 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BY 6 PM PDT.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000
FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT










000
FXUS66 KMTR 290001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 29 2014...NONE.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KHNX 282300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 29 2014...NONE.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD











000
FXUS66 KEKA 282235
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
335 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NW CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR...WHILE THE COAST SITS
UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THRU THU) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND DRY AIR ALOFT HAVE RESTRICTED TOWERING CUMULUS GROWTH
TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE AREA AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND SLIDE NORTH IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN TO MENDOCINO COUNTY BUT AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. BY THE AFTERNOON THE INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AND THE BEST MOISTURE WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH OVER
TRINITY COUNTY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST IF THE NAM IS CORRECT. MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY ALLOW
ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND DRIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
TRINITY COUNTY AS WELL.

BY THE EVENING INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LEADING TO LESSER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION/CAP. AT THIS TIME THE CAP APPEARS TO NOW BE STRONGEST ON
THURSDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS ALL
TOGETHER FOR THAT AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG MARINE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED
STRATUS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE COAST WATERS. DISSIPATING
THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR
ALOFT. THUS THE COASTAL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRATUS MAY LIFT SOME
AND REDUCE THE THICKNESS OF THE FOG LATER THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. RPA

.LONG TERM...(FRI THROUGH MON) GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH
PWATS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHING THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE STABLE MID
LAYER...THOUGH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO COOLING ALOFT INDICATED IN
THE MODEL DATA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THIS STABLE MID LAYER WHICH MAY CAP THE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY CHANGES
WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT FROM MORE CLOUD COVER AND/OR MARINE AIR
FILTERING INLAND. THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST HAS BEEN BASED
LARGELY ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE.


&&

.AVIATION...FOG IS WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST WITH A VERY STRONG
MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS FOG WILL MOVE FARTHER ONSHORE THIS
EVENING ALLOWING LIFR CONDITIONS TO EXPAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A REPEAT OF TODAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH THE FOG PULLING BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED TURBULENCE.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE NORCAL INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES THROUGH
THIS WEEK. ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
STEEP SEAS OF 7-9 FT AT 8 SECONDS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AROUND MID
WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD COME UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL.

ONCE AGAIN SMALL SCALE EDDIES HAVE FORMED NEAR THE COAST
TODAY...BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THESE EDDIES HAVE
BEEN CREATING MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR SHORE. THE
MODELS...EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE NOT BEEN DOING
VERY WELL CAPTURING THESE SMALL SCALE VORTICES. I ADJUSTED THE WIND
FIELDS NEAR SHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 282129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California
in the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners ridge and a
Gulf of Alaska trough. Mid to high level monsoonal moisture has
advanced back into interior northern California today as the dry
slot retreats further to the north. Energy rotating clockwise
through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will cycle through the
region today and into midweek producing an increased likelihood of
isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily over the Northern
Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra Nevada crest.
Precipitation will most likely fall as virga over the valley, but
some isolated sprinkles could reach the valley floor. Mosaic radar
already shows moderate convective activity pushing northward from
central California this afternoon. Cells have managed to produce light
precipitation (a few hundreths of an inch) according to mesonet
stations in central California.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Isolated SH/TS over Sierra this
afternoon, with slight chance moving into foothills and southern
Sac/northern San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue. Weak convective
could continue tonight w/ TS over mountains Tue afternoon. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 282129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California
in the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners ridge and a
Gulf of Alaska trough. Mid to high level monsoonal moisture has
advanced back into interior northern California today as the dry
slot retreats further to the north. Energy rotating clockwise
through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will cycle through the
region today and into midweek producing an increased likelihood of
isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily over the Northern
Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra Nevada crest.
Precipitation will most likely fall as virga over the valley, but
some isolated sprinkles could reach the valley floor. Mosaic radar
already shows moderate convective activity pushing northward from
central California this afternoon. Cells have managed to produce light
precipitation (a few hundreths of an inch) according to mesonet
stations in central California.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Friday to
Monday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving toward the central CA coast Saturday/Sunday, and could add
some instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.   JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Isolated SH/TS over Sierra this
afternoon, with slight chance moving into foothills and southern
Sac/northern San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue. Weak convective
could continue tonight w/ TS over mountains Tue afternoon. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS66 KHNX 282122
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







000
FXUS66 KHNX 282122
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS65 KREV 282117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION
WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO...AFTERNOON
WINDS WERE RAISED TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SPEEDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT LARGELY AS INHERITED.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE NOON TODAY
AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND REDEVELOPING. DEW POINTS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT HAVE
CREPT INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DECREASE IN PWATS TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WOULD BE MUCH DEEPER...AND THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
HIGHER...IF THE HIGH CENTER WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. RIGHT NOW IT IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MORE
THAN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OFF SHORE
THAT IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A WAVE MOVING NORTH TODAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THE COVERAGE WOULD
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE
WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON KICKING OFF FASTER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAISES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ELEVATED FROM
ABOUT 0.75 TO AROUND 1 INCH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
STILL...WITH STORM SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH...DRY STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SUBTLE WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL DETERMINE IN LARGE PART WHERE THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. THE AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTROL THE COVERAGE. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS EXIST EARLY EACH DAY THEN COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OR VIRGA. 20/MB

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, BUT PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. MILD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE SIERRA.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE VERY
MUCH. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND
NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WEAK
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CA COAST. SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS
WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER BACK TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS.

BY MONDAY, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AND
DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHERN
SIERRA AGAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE SO WHILE
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF TAHOE AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA, THESE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER
INCLUDED.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE AND WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE NOT RESOLVED VERY WELL IN TIMING OR LOCATION ON MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ON DAYS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR UPPER DYNAMICS,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH. ON DAYS WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS INVOLVED, THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OR LOCAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE.

AT THIS TIME, SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE INDICATED IN
AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH THURSDAY, THEN SPREADING TO
MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF
RENO-CARSON CITY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE MAIN TERMINALS, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KMMH WHERE RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR TUESDAY, THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 282117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION
WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO...AFTERNOON
WINDS WERE RAISED TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SPEEDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT LARGELY AS INHERITED.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE NOON TODAY
AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND REDEVELOPING. DEW POINTS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT HAVE
CREPT INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DECREASE IN PWATS TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WOULD BE MUCH DEEPER...AND THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
HIGHER...IF THE HIGH CENTER WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. RIGHT NOW IT IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MORE
THAN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OFF SHORE
THAT IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A WAVE MOVING NORTH TODAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THE COVERAGE WOULD
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE
WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON KICKING OFF FASTER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAISES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ELEVATED FROM
ABOUT 0.75 TO AROUND 1 INCH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
STILL...WITH STORM SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH...DRY STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SUBTLE WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL DETERMINE IN LARGE PART WHERE THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. THE AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTROL THE COVERAGE. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS EXIST EARLY EACH DAY THEN COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OR VIRGA. 20/MB

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, BUT PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. MILD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE SIERRA.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE VERY
MUCH. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND
NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WEAK
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CA COAST. SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS
WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER BACK TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS.

BY MONDAY, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AND
DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHERN
SIERRA AGAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE SO WHILE
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF TAHOE AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA, THESE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER
INCLUDED.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE AND WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE NOT RESOLVED VERY WELL IN TIMING OR LOCATION ON MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ON DAYS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR UPPER DYNAMICS,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH. ON DAYS WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS INVOLVED, THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OR LOCAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE.

AT THIS TIME, SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE INDICATED IN
AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH THURSDAY, THEN SPREADING TO
MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF
RENO-CARSON CITY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE MAIN TERMINALS, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KMMH WHERE RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR TUESDAY, THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 282114
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 PM

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KSGX 282051
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICO/TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CA. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 29/0200Z WITH BASES
6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 282051
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
151 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICO/TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CA. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE TRAILING BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. 28/1200 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM MODEL RUNS HINT AT PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
AND DISAGREE ON TIMING...HAVE LEFT STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY...WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...A PATCHY LOW CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
NEAR 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1300 FT MSL SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE UP TO 5 SM INLAND BETWEEN 28
/0900Z-1300Z... AFFECTING KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN/OVC LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE. SKC
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 29/0200Z WITH BASES
6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKWYARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...STILL GETTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED IN SEVERAL HOURS BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR WITH THE CELLS WEST OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND. WILL LEAVE IN A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER STILL PRETTY HEAVY AND LIKELY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS
DIMINISHED STORMS HAVE STARTED FIRING OFF BUT NOTHING SO FAR IN OUR
CWA. WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE COULD STILL SEE A LATE START WITH BETTER
CLEARING. IN BETWEEN FOR MOST POPULATED AREAS OF OUR CWA JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO KICK OFF
STORMS OVERNIGHT SO DESPITE THERE STILL BEING SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE LYR EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY MOST AREAS TUESDAY WITH DECREASED
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TSTORM FREE FOR NOW.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED WE SHOULD START SEEING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM WHAT WAS BRIEFLY HURRICANE HERNAN REACHES US. MODELS
DON`T TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SITATIONS VERY WELL SO FOR NOW I`VE
JUST ADDED SOME CLOUDS AND SUB-10 POPS TO THE AREA. CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR KICKING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO PULL THE TRIGGER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HIGHS
THAT DAY BUT LIKELY COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
IN TERMS OF HOW IT FEELS OUT THERE.

AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
STILL PRETTY WARM THOUGH AS THE 4 CORNERS HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME BUT LOWER HUMIDITY.

INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOME MINI-SUNDOWNERS
FOR THE SBA AREA THIS WEEK. VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT
STRONGER WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL ALSO
BOOST TEMPS THERE AS WELL, POSSIBLY TO NEAR 90 FOR THE SRN SBA
COUNTY BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH OVER THE
4 CORNERS AS A TROF PUSHES INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECENT COOLING TREND FOR MOST AREAS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1225 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 281925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1225 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO START CLEARING IN MOST SECTIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS FOR SOME COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN ONLY SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281834
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1134 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:30 AM PDT MONDAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO ROLL BACK TO THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY LINE AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERNMOST SAN BENITO COUNTY. WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY GROUND
TRUTH YET WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY`RE NOT VERY CLOSE TO
ANY ONE OR MORE REMOTE RAIN GAUGES. SUSPECT AT MOST A FEW CONVECTIVE
RAIN DROPS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
THESE PATTERNS...THE REST IS PROBABLY EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO THESE SHOWERS
ARE VERY SLOW MOVING.

ADDITIONALLY THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY
WELL PER RECENT FORT ORD AND BODEGA BAY PROFILERS AND THE SAN CARLOS
SODAR. THE INVERSION LEVEL (AT APPROX 1600 FEET) IS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN DEPTH OVER THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ONSHORE BREEZES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIMILAR
STRATUS PATTERN INLAND EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF
FORECAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILARLY TO THE BAY AREA LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF STRATUS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS66 KHNX 281651
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
951 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED SYNOPSIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT FROM EARLIER DESERT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA APPROACHES THE MEXICAN BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD AND HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. MODEL PROG THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SCAL WITH
SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE
INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
YOSEMITE AREA THIS EVENING BUT LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THERE.

A WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE CABO COAST. THUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PROBABLE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
SIERRA. GFS PROGS A SSE FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER SCAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE START OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KHNX 281651
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
951 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED SYNOPSIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT FROM EARLIER DESERT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA APPROACHES THE MEXICAN BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD AND HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. MODEL PROG THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SCAL WITH
SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE
INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
YOSEMITE AREA THIS EVENING BUT LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THERE.

A WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE CABO COAST. THUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PROBABLE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
SIERRA. GFS PROGS A SSE FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER SCAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE START OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KSGX 281635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OVER SW CA. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING...AND ALSO
CALCULATED 1.65 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN
RESTRICTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE
TRAILING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY DUE TO THE VARIOUS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
281530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...VCSH OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
28/1800Z. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH
BASES AOA 10000 FT MSL. A FEW/SCT STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH BASES NEAR
1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400 FT MSL WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SIMILAR BASE AND TOPS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE 5-10 SM INLAND AFT
28/0900Z. THIS WOULD AFFECT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT TSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/1800Z
WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN
CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








000
FXUS66 KSGX 281635
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TODAY AS
SUFFICIENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A PATCHY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OVER SW CA. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTH OVER NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING...AND ALSO
CALCULATED 1.65 IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY BEEN
RESTRICTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD
STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM SUBSIDENCE
TRAILING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD
GENERATE HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO SW. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN. CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD WEST OVER SW CA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...REMOVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY DUE TO THE VARIOUS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
281530Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...VCSH OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
28/1800Z. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH
BASES AOA 10000 FT MSL. A FEW/SCT STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH BASES NEAR
1000 FT MSL AND TOPS 1400 FT MSL WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SIMILAR BASE AND TOPS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE 5-10 SM INLAND AFT
28/0900Z. THIS WOULD AFFECT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. CONFIDENCE OF A
BKN LAYER OCCURRING AT THESE AIRPORTS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN TSTORMS AND ISOLATED DESERT TSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 28/1800Z
WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN
CLOUD LAYERS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS LATE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:18 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNING-
OFF THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS...CONTINUE
TO SEE RETURNS ON THE KMUX RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO CONTINUES...YET NO REPORTS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DECENT LIFTING
MECHANISM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES AND SOME INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX
RADAR IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY
COUNTY. RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ
SO PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE
OVER SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE
STILL IN THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
BACK TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C
RANGE. LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and thunderstorms to
portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase in clouds
and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little cooler
temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot over northwestern California in
the southwesterly flow between the Four Corners monsoon ridge and
a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Visible satellite imagery shows
mid to high level clouds advancing back into interior northern
California this morning as this dry slot retreats to the north.
Expect an increase in cloudiness today through the mid to high
levels as monsoon moisture surges in from the south. Energy
rotating clockwise through the Four Corners monsoon ridge will
cycle through the region today and into midweek producing an
increased likelihood of isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily over the Northern Coastal range, Lassen Park, and the Sierra
Nevada crest. The moisture and instability associated with this
system is less impressive than the monsoonal surge we experienced
two weeks ago.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the Four
Corner monsoon ridge persists over the western US. There will be
minor day to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine
layer and strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main
theme will remain hot.

Smoke from the Sand Fire south of Placerville along highway 49
will remain concentrated in the Sierra Nevada Foothills again this
evening and into early morning Tuesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281247
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:46 AM PDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
AS SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAS FILLED IN PRETTY WELL. MARINE LAYER IS
NOW 1200-1500 FEET. CIGS LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE REGION. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WELL AS IT TURNS OUT...SF BAY FILLED IN AND
KSFO HAS A CIG. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR MODEL WITH A CLEARING
CLOSE TO 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...STILL PATCHY CIGS OVER THE APPROACH AND
WILL LINGER 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADVANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT MONDAY...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE MARINE LAYER RE-DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO 1200 FEET. IFR TO MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSFO AND KSJC. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONF IS MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY NO CIGS AT KSFO...BUT THEY`RE IN THE
WINGS. CONF IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THEY`LL EVENTUALLY FILL IN SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE A 4 HR TEMPO OF CIGS. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE CIGS AROUND THE APPROACH THAN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SMB IS
STILL REPORTING CLR. WILL FORECAST PATCHY CIGS THROUGH 16-17Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT MONDAY...MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RATHER SMALL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
335 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RATHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A DECENT VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS CAUSED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SLO AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS YET BEEN DETECTED IN THIS REGION.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DRIFT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
SECTIONS OF VTU COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. WILL JUST GO WITH AREAL
SHWR/TSTM WORDING FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING FOCUSED OVER L.A. AND ERN VTU COUNTIES.

AS THE VORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
WEAKEN...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OR END IN MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY NOON OR SO. THEN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. THE WRF SHOWS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE
AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED TO OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. A TSTM OR TWO COULD
DRIFT INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AND THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SERN SLO COUNTY
AS WELL. WITH GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE VERY TRICKY TODAY. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM...AND TEMPS WILL
RISE QUICKLY AS THEY DID LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

AN UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND INTO
THE REGION ON TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TUE AND WED. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UPWARD A BIT EACH
DAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

28/300 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Monsoonal surge of clouds will bring a few thunderstorms and
showers to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase
in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little
cooler temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning except for some high clouds along the eastern edge of the
forecast area. Temperatures are once again mild, mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the region early this morning.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture beginning to
move back toward NorCal after retreating somewhat late Sunday and
overnight. WV imagery shows a large well-defined wave over
northern Baja that is forecast to move up into the vicinity of
Lake Tahoe tonight. Thunderstorms are once again developing over
SoCal and offshore early this morning, and appears this feature
may provide enough lift to generate some showers and even a few
thunderstorms continuing overnight tonight as it approaches. By
later Tuesday, looks like convective activity will mainly return
to its normal diurnal cycle over the mountains.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the
strong ridge persists over the western US. There will be minor day
to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine layer and
strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main theme will
remain hot.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
Delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281046
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Monsoonal surge of clouds will bring a few thunderstorms and
showers to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The increase
in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a little
cooler temps for portions of the Central Valley today.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning except for some high clouds along the eastern edge of the
forecast area. Temperatures are once again mild, mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the region early this morning.

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper-level moisture beginning to
move back toward NorCal after retreating somewhat late Sunday and
overnight. WV imagery shows a large well-defined wave over
northern Baja that is forecast to move up into the vicinity of
Lake Tahoe tonight. Thunderstorms are once again developing over
SoCal and offshore early this morning, and appears this feature
may provide enough lift to generate some showers and even a few
thunderstorms continuing overnight tonight as it approaches. By
later Tuesday, looks like convective activity will mainly return
to its normal diurnal cycle over the mountains.

Temperatures will remain hot through the upcoming week as the
strong ridge persists over the western US. There will be minor day
to day fluctuations based on the depth of the marine layer and
strength of onshore flow and cloud cover, but the main theme will
remain hot.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Winds generally 10kts with local gusts
15-20 kts across valley, and sustained 15 to 25 kts poss through
Delta. Isolated showers/thunderstorms over Sierra this afternoon,
with slight chance moving into foothills and southern Sac/northern
San Joaquin valley after 00Z Tue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KHNX 281033
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
333 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEGINNING MONDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT FROM EARLIER DESERT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA APPROACHES THE MEXICAN BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD AND HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. MODEL PROG THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SCAL WITH
SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE
INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
YOSEMITE AREA THIS EVENING BUT LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THERE.

A WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE CABO COAST. THUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PROBABLE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
SIERRA. GFS PROGS A SSE FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER SCAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE START OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










000
FXUS66 KEKA 281030
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NW CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TO THE INTERIOR...WHILE THE COAST SITS UNDER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPS TO
THE NW CAL INTERIOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL START WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE HEATING AT THE SURFACE
TODAY, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK FOR MANY
AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH TO AROUND 105F OR SO. EARLY THIS
MORNING TEMPS AT THE 4000FT LEVEL ARE HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S,
INDICATING VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE TO LOW TEEN DIGITS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RECOVERIES WILL BE MODEST OVERNIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK ALONG THE RIDGES WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY UNDER
THIS STOUT RIDGE, SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSING FOG
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. THIS INVERSION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK
THIS MORNING, KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW, THEN
THE INVERSION WILL SET UP AGAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING BRINGING A
RETURN OF THE FOG.

AN ENTRENCHED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL SWING MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH NW CAL TUE THROUGH THU. THIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE FOG WED AND THU MORNING WHILE DEEPENING THE MARINE
LAYER ALLOWING FOR HIGHER OVERNIGHT RH VALUES INLAND. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING BETTER DYNAMICS DURING THE DAYTIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW CAL INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR TUE THROUGH THU IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK
HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED AND THU AFTERNOON OVER THE TRINITY AND DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS. BFG

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA MOST DAYS. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES OF ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK
HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA TO PORTRAY THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
100F WITH 60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT MOST NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STP/BFG


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT KCEC
AND KUKI. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE
TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DECREASE AT KCEC TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND
KACV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 281030
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NW CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TO THE INTERIOR...WHILE THE COAST SITS UNDER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPS TO
THE NW CAL INTERIOR THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL START WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE HEATING AT THE SURFACE
TODAY, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK FOR MANY
AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH TO AROUND 105F OR SO. EARLY THIS
MORNING TEMPS AT THE 4000FT LEVEL ARE HOVERING AROUND THE MID 70S,
INDICATING VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE TO LOW TEEN DIGITS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. RECOVERIES WILL BE MODEST OVERNIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK ALONG THE RIDGES WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY UNDER
THIS STOUT RIDGE, SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAUSING FOG
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. THIS INVERSION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK
THIS MORNING, KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW, THEN
THE INVERSION WILL SET UP AGAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING BRINGING A
RETURN OF THE FOG.

AN ENTRENCHED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL SWING MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH NW CAL TUE THROUGH THU. THIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE FOG WED AND THU MORNING WHILE DEEPENING THE MARINE
LAYER ALLOWING FOR HIGHER OVERNIGHT RH VALUES INLAND. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING BETTER DYNAMICS DURING THE DAYTIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NW CAL INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH, HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR TUE THROUGH THU IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK
HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED AND THU AFTERNOON OVER THE TRINITY AND DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS. BFG

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA MOST DAYS. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES OF ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK
HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA TO PORTRAY THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
100F WITH 60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT MOST NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STP/BFG


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT KCEC
AND KUKI. IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT KACV DUE
TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL DECREASE AT KCEC TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC AND
KACV DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...THE PERSISTENT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THEREFORE ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 281023
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER DESERTS PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
GENERALLY POOR FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON IDENTIFIABLE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARIZONA
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THAT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY MORNING INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
GENERATED A MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THAT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DESERTS YESTERDAY...HELPING THE GENERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD HAVE A LESSENING INFLUENCE ON FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA 24 HOURS AGO HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVERNIGHT SO FAR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER IT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ARE BLANKED ACROSS MUCH FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAKER MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THE NEW WRINKLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS THE POSSIBILTY FOR SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SLOW THE
EXPECTED DRYING TREND SOMEWHAT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM HERNAN...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE CONTINUING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RATHER PATCHY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORE RECENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT AS CLEAN WITH THE DRYING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
DRY...BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CB BASES 8-10 KFT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 25 KFT MSL. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL IMPACTING KCRQ AND KSAN AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. PATCHY
STRATUS REDEVELOPING AFTER 29/04Z WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WITH BASES 6000-8000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 35 KFT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 8000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
240 AM PDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KMTR 280958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...AT THIS HOUR KMUX RADAR
IS INDICATING ECHOS ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY COUNTY.
RADAR VALUES ARE VERY SMALL -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 DBZ SO
PROBABLY NO RAIN IS FALLING IN OUR CWA YET. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OVER
SLO COUNTY IS PICKING UP, SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

MORE INSTABILITY IS IN THE CARDS FOR LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS
AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
OVERALL THINKING IS STILL THE SAME THAT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
ADANCE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS ARE STILL IN
THE 29-31C RANGE (DOWN FROM 32-36C). MUCAPE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH PEAK VALUES JUST AROUND 100.

SHOWERS WILL END LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A MORE
STABLE SW FLOW RETURNS TO OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 23-26C RANGE.
LOOK FOR 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KPSR 280824
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
124 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS66 KLOX 280547 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN
VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...27/0545Z.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LVL MOISTURE HAS
DISRUPTED THE LOW CLOUD FIELD...BUT IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...AND EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MON EVENING.THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 280547 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
A GOOD SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TODAY...AS EVIDENT BY THE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING
VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO TRIGGER THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND CATALINA ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS CONVECTION TO OUR EAST. AS OF 745 PM...DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STORM ACTIVITY ALONG INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN
VICTORVILLE AND BARSTOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS KEYING IN ON TWO UPPER
LEVEL WAVES THAT COULD AID IN CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS A WAVE THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AND THE SECOND IS A WAVE THAT COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE VENTURA COAST AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AREAS INTO MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATED A PV CENTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN SUITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS DUE TO THE DRY AIR
MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER LITTLE FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INLAND AND AROUND NORMAL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.AVIATION...27/0545Z.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LVL MOISTURE HAS
DISRUPTED THE LOW CLOUD FIELD...BUT IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COAST N OF PT CONCEPTION...AND EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MON EVENING.THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

27/800 PM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY... WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280544
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1044 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR IS QUIET SO LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IS OVER FOR TONIGHT. STRATUS
CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST AND CAN BE SEEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
A FEW OF THE COASTAL GAPS. SO STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH LATER TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...STRATUS COVERS THE ENTIRE MRY BAY
AREA. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280501
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1001 PM PDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Moisture surge will bring a few sprinkles and isolated
thunderstorms to portions of interior NorCal into mid-week. The
increase in clouds and return of the Delta Breeze will result in a
little cooler temps for the Central Valley the next few days.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Mid-level monsoon moisture continues to increase this evening with
preciptable water values approaching 1.00 inches. Skies are partly
cloudy and can`t rule out an isolated sprinkle over southern areas
as debris cloudiness from southern Sierra thunderstorms moves
north after midnight. Weak delta breeze not offering much cooling
with temperatures similar to 24 hrs ago. Current forecast is on
track and no evening update will be needed.

.Discussion...
Band of clouds along the western edge of the monsoon surge of mid
and upper-level moisture continues to move up from the south
through the middle portion of the forecast area. Virga and a few
sprinkles have been occurring with some of the deeper convection,
but so far thunderstorm activity along the band has remained
along the coast or offshore to the south and southwest of the Bay
Area. A few storms have begun to develop over the northern Sierra
to the south of Lake Tahoe at mid-afternoon.

Clouds have held temperatures down through much of the day through
the Central Valley, but readings are rallying at mid-afternoon as
more sunshine has peeked through and are now mostly in the 90s.
Looks like we`ll still end up shy of the century mark today in
Sacramento, but it may be close.

Tricky forecast the next few days with plenty of mid and upper-
level moisture remaining over the area with elevated instability.
Looks like the entrance region of the upper jet arcing over the
western US ridge will remain overhead, and any weak perturbations
coming up from the south may be enough to kick off a few showers
and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery shows a few stronger waves
to our south - one originating from the large thunderstorm complex
over SW AZ last night and another moving up the west coast of Baja
- that bear watching over the day or so. Latest timing of these
would place them up around the Sacramento area Monday night and
early Tuesday.

Temperatures will also be tricky depending on cloud cover (and the
strength of the Delta Breeze for the Sac region), but will likely
remain rather hot through at least the early portion of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Models show the western CONUS ridge maintaining it`s position
over the Intermountain Rockies through the extended, Thursday to
Sunday, with fairly weak S to SSW flow aloft. The resultant flow
aloft will bring some monsoonal moisture northward into the
Sierra. Therefore, we have left a minimal thunderstorm threat over
the Sierra crest south of Highway 50 and around the periphery of
Shasta county. Temperatures remain around normal, with the mid to
upper 90s in the valley and 70s to 90s in the mountains/foothills.
Of course, temperatures will depend on the resultant cloud cover.

The ECMWF and GEM models show an embedded weak low feature aloft
moving northward into NV by Saturday/Sunday, and could add some
instability over northern CA. However, we didn`t bit on any
additional convective coverage this feature this far out as it is
very subtle at this point.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours, except areas of smoke near the Sand
Fire. Winds will remain below 10kt across Valley TAF sites. Near
Delta, SW winds 20 kt continue.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS66 KSGX 280404
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
NORMAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL
ALSO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...LIMITING AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TREK
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT FROM EAST TO WEST. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGH DESERT.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A VORTEX OF CLOUDS SWIRLING
NW THROUGH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE REMNANT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER AZ EARLIER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL HAD AN AREA OF DARKENING AND POSSIBLE
WEAK PVA MOVING NORTH THROUGH BAJA CA. THERE WAS NO WEATHER EVIDENT
WITH IT AT 0345Z. ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS AZ FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST CELLS WERE ALONG THE MEXICAN
BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. MOST OF SW AZ WAS CLEAR. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD 1.71 INCH OF PW AND MODEST CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG
ABOVE 11K FT.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST...REACHING ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. A WELL
DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BAJA CA OVERNIGHT...AND OVER SOCAL MON MORNING. AS THIS
WAVE PASSES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...ADVECTING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALLOW WIND TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...
OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MINOR PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SO WARM SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN THIS WEEK.
A SEASONAL THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS THE MARINE
LAYER EFFECTS BECOME MORE LIMITED.

CONVECTION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE DRIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA. BUT THERE HAS BEEN FEW CLOUDS AND
LITTLE TO NO ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AGAIN.
MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY...TURNING SW ON MON
MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS INCREASING ELEVATED
CAPE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE APPROACHING WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. FOR
TOMORROW...THE CHANCE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TOMORROW...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGH PW AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN 10000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NON-UNIFORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
1000-1500 AT KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFT 16Z. MONDAY
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 17Z MONDAY WITH
BASES 060-080...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE











000
FXUS66 KSGX 280404
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR
NORMAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL
ALSO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...LIMITING AREAS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TREK
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT FROM EAST TO WEST. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGH DESERT.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A VORTEX OF CLOUDS SWIRLING
NW THROUGH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE REMNANT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER AZ EARLIER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL HAD AN AREA OF DARKENING AND POSSIBLE
WEAK PVA MOVING NORTH THROUGH BAJA CA. THERE WAS NO WEATHER EVIDENT
WITH IT AT 0345Z. ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS AZ FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST CELLS WERE ALONG THE MEXICAN
BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. MOST OF SW AZ WAS CLEAR. THE 00Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD 1.71 INCH OF PW AND MODEST CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG
ABOVE 11K FT.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST...REACHING ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. A WELL
DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER BAJA CA OVERNIGHT...AND OVER SOCAL MON MORNING. AS THIS
WAVE PASSES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...ADVECTING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALLOW WIND TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY...
OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MINOR PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SO WARM SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN THIS WEEK.
A SEASONAL THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND CONTINUE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS THE MARINE
LAYER EFFECTS BECOME MORE LIMITED.

CONVECTION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE DRIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA. BUT THERE HAS BEEN FEW CLOUDS AND
LITTLE TO NO ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE
TO TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AGAIN.
MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY...TURNING SW ON MON
MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS INCREASING ELEVATED
CAPE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE APPROACHING WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. FOR
TOMORROW...THE CHANCE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TOMORROW...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGH PW AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN 10000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NON-UNIFORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS
1000-1500 AT KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFT 16Z. MONDAY
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 17Z MONDAY WITH
BASES 060-080...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE










000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280337
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
837 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:37 PM PDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY
LOCATIONS. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF
77 WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 72...SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REACHED
92 WITH A NORMAL TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES AND SALINAS AIRPORT
REACHED A HIGH OF 76 WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 71 DEGREES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
MONSOON/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ROUGHLY 72
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE OBSERVED OFFSHORE WITH 3 STRIKES OCCURRING
OVER LAND...1 NEAR HOLLISTER...1 NEAR GILROY AND 1 IN CARMEL
VALLEY.

THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
COMBINATION OF MONSOON AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND BOTH
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 1800Z
NAM12 SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 32 HOVERING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL LINK MOVES TO THE WEST AND THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SLIDES TO THE EAST LEAVING CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST OVER THE WATERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SPRINKLES AT SFO THROUGH 03Z. STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST BUT
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA UNTIL AFTER THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE STRATUS MAKES IT INTO THE SFO
BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK AND MARINE LAYER
IS SHALLOW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 04Z. STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER 10Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY STAY OUT ALL NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A PATCH OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND POINT PINOS IN THE PAST HOUR. IFR SPREADING INTO MRY AFTER
03Z AND SNS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY COAST. LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED AS RECENTLY AS 21Z BUT NONE
SINCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






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