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000
FXUS66 KLOX 281806
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1105 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

AT 1701Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE SOUTH COAST OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY WHERE PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES.

KLAX...ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CKLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 281806
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1105 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

AT 1701Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE SOUTH COAST OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY WHERE PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES.

KLAX...ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CKLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING THE AIRFIELD
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 281749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:34 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORNING TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS WELL
INTO THE VALLEYS. MARINE LAYER RUNNING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT SFO TO SAC NEARLY 2 MB
THIS MORNING AND WINDS AT SUU GUSTING OVER 20 MPH.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INLAND QUICKLY
TONIGHT...BUT DISSIPATE FASTER WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE COAST AND GOES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT 18C AND OFFSHORE WINDS
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO NOT EXPECTING RECORD WARMTH...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS NONETHELESS.

BIGGEST CONCERN FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT IS THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS OVER INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH RAINS
FROM LATE LAST WEEK SHOULD HELP MITIGATE IMPACT SOMEWHAT.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS TO MOSTLY 70S
FOR INLAND AREAS. IN SOME PLACES IT WILL BE A DROP OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS
THE OFFSHORE FLOW KICKS IN HELPING TO PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER
AIR. ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NAM
VALUES ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR VALUES. WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY
HILLS WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MODERATE A
BIT. HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COASTAL SPOTS
SHOULD SEE A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST WHILE A MODERATE ONSHORE
PUSH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITH 60S AT THE
COAST AND 70S INLAND.

LOOKING TO NEXT WORK WEEK..ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHILE THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK NORTHWESTERLY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
FOCUSED ON ALASKA AND BC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND THE BAYS...YET HAVE
SEEN CLEARING OVER THE INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS REGION WIDE...WHILE AREAS
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY MAY ONLY SEE BRIEF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY
TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. LINGERING FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EARLY
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z-20Z.BURN-
OFF EXPECTED INLAND WITH KMRY POTENTIALLY ONLY SEEING BRIEF BREAK
IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTER WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING. EARLY RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND
OFF OF THE BIG SUR COAST. BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:34 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORNING TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS WELL
INTO THE VALLEYS. MARINE LAYER RUNNING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT SFO TO SAC NEARLY 2 MB
THIS MORNING AND WINDS AT SUU GUSTING OVER 20 MPH.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INLAND QUICKLY
TONIGHT...BUT DISSIPATE FASTER WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BEGINS TO
PARALLEL THE COAST AND GOES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT 18C AND OFFSHORE WINDS
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO NOT EXPECTING RECORD WARMTH...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS NONETHELESS.

BIGGEST CONCERN FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT IS THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS OVER INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH RAINS
FROM LATE LAST WEEK SHOULD HELP MITIGATE IMPACT SOMEWHAT.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS TO MOSTLY 70S
FOR INLAND AREAS. IN SOME PLACES IT WILL BE A DROP OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS
THE OFFSHORE FLOW KICKS IN HELPING TO PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER
AIR. ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NAM
VALUES ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR VALUES. WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY
HILLS WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MODERATE A
BIT. HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COASTAL SPOTS
SHOULD SEE A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST WHILE A MODERATE ONSHORE
PUSH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITH 60S AT THE
COAST AND 70S INLAND.

LOOKING TO NEXT WORK WEEK..ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHILE THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK NORTHWESTERLY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
FOCUSED ON ALASKA AND BC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND THE BAYS...YET HAVE
SEEN CLEARING OVER THE INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS REGION WIDE...WHILE AREAS
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY MAY ONLY SEE BRIEF CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY
TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. LINGERING FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EARLY
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z-20Z.BURN-
OFF EXPECTED INLAND WITH KMRY POTENTIALLY ONLY SEEING BRIEF BREAK
IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTER WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING. EARLY RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND
OFF OF THE BIG SUR COAST. BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 281715
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1015 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND IS WEAKENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PUT
SPRINKLES IN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND
REMOVED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A
FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER TRINITY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITITION WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT WE WILL SEE FAIRLY RAPIDLY CLEARING AT THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. MKK

MARINE UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING AT 9 PM...WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT REGARDING THE TIMING OF GALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS QUITE YET...SO WILL LEAVE THE GALE WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW...WITH UPGRADES POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WILL ALSO
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES/HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE INNER WATERS AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

/BRC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 404 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 281715
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1015 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND IS WEAKENING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PUT
SPRINKLES IN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND
REMOVED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A
FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER TRINITY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITITION WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT WE WILL SEE FAIRLY RAPIDLY CLEARING AT THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. MKK

MARINE UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING
GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING AT 9 PM...WHICH WILL EXTEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS GREAT REGARDING THE TIMING OF GALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS QUITE YET...SO WILL LEAVE THE GALE WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW...WITH UPGRADES POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WILL ALSO
WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES/HAZARDOUS SEAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE INNER WATERS AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

/BRC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 404 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 281712
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
GLOBE...PRIMARILY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER PER WV SAT IMAGERY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW FIELD OF STRATO-CU
MOVING ALONG WITH IT AND A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THE WHITE MTNS.
THE 28.09Z SREF INDICATES SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN/EVE BUT NOT MUCH...LOW PROB OF ABOVE 250 J/KG. WHILE THE 28.12Z
FGZ SOUNDING HAD A SUBSTANTIAL STABLE/SUBSIDENCE LAYER...THE ABQ
SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES
WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE. SPC HRRR BROWSER DEPICTS THE PAST SIX RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THAT THUS I/VE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A
MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F
WARMER. WARMING SHOULD LEVEL OFF THOUGH YIELDING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-7F
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281712
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1012 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR SRN GILA COUNTY EAST OF
GLOBE...PRIMARILY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER PER WV SAT IMAGERY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW FIELD OF STRATO-CU
MOVING ALONG WITH IT AND A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THE WHITE MTNS.
THE 28.09Z SREF INDICATES SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN/EVE BUT NOT MUCH...LOW PROB OF ABOVE 250 J/KG. WHILE THE 28.12Z
FGZ SOUNDING HAD A SUBSTANTIAL STABLE/SUBSIDENCE LAYER...THE ABQ
SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES
WERE JUST A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF TYPICAL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE. SPC HRRR BROWSER DEPICTS THE PAST SIX RUNS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...REALLY SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THAT THUS I/VE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS ARE PROMOTING A
MUCH WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS 5-15F
WARMER. WARMING SHOULD LEVEL OFF THOUGH YIELDING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-7F
WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 281631
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. GRADUAL COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A WEAK
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MONTANA ALL
THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE FROM A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW REACHED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE PROJECTED
HIGH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 81. THE AVERAGE HIGH AT IS 68. THE RECORD
HIGH IS 88 SET IN 2008.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS WEAK SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN
ALL AREAS. COOLING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CLOUDS HAD REACHED SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AT 9 AM WHERE THEY REPORTED A CEILING OF 100 FEET AND A VISIBILITY
OF 1.5 MILES. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
KEEP MOST COASTAL AREAS FREE OF CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE MORE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLING WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND THEN
SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ON THE ONSHORE FLOW
GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENS. THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR COOLING ON FRIDAY. COOLING CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC JET
ENERGY STREAMING INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CAL NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BOTH
MODELS PRODUCING SMALL QPF OVER SOCAL. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR
CONTINUITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

281520Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORECAST IN COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...

825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

815 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A LARGE
FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF OVER 50 FEET.
WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22 SECOND
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL



000
FXUS66 KSGX 281631
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. GRADUAL COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A WEAK
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MONTANA ALL
THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE FROM A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW REACHED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE PROJECTED
HIGH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 81. THE AVERAGE HIGH AT IS 68. THE RECORD
HIGH IS 88 SET IN 2008.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS WEAK SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN
ALL AREAS. COOLING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CLOUDS HAD REACHED SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AT 9 AM WHERE THEY REPORTED A CEILING OF 100 FEET AND A VISIBILITY
OF 1.5 MILES. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
KEEP MOST COASTAL AREAS FREE OF CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE MORE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLING WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND THEN
SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ON THE ONSHORE FLOW
GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENS. THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR COOLING ON FRIDAY. COOLING CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC JET
ENERGY STREAMING INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CAL NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BOTH
MODELS PRODUCING SMALL QPF OVER SOCAL. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR
CONTINUITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

281520Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORECAST IN COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...

825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

815 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A LARGE
FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF OVER 50 FEET.
WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22 SECOND
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281631
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. GRADUAL COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A WEAK
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MONTANA ALL
THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE FROM A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW REACHED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE PROJECTED
HIGH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 81. THE AVERAGE HIGH AT IS 68. THE RECORD
HIGH IS 88 SET IN 2008.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS WEAK SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN
ALL AREAS. COOLING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CLOUDS HAD REACHED SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AT 9 AM WHERE THEY REPORTED A CEILING OF 100 FEET AND A VISIBILITY
OF 1.5 MILES. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
KEEP MOST COASTAL AREAS FREE OF CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE MORE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLING WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND THEN
SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ON THE ONSHORE FLOW
GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENS. THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR COOLING ON FRIDAY. COOLING CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC JET
ENERGY STREAMING INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CAL NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BOTH
MODELS PRODUCING SMALL QPF OVER SOCAL. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR
CONTINUITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

281520Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORECAST IN COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...

825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

815 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A LARGE
FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF OVER 50 FEET.
WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22 SECOND
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL



000
FXUS66 KSGX 281631
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. GRADUAL COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A WEAK
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MONTANA ALL
THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY
OFFSHORE FROM A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW REACHED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE PROJECTED
HIGH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 81. THE AVERAGE HIGH AT IS 68. THE RECORD
HIGH IS 88 SET IN 2008.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS WEAK SANTA ANA PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IN
ALL AREAS. COOLING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CLOUDS HAD REACHED SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AT 9 AM WHERE THEY REPORTED A CEILING OF 100 FEET AND A VISIBILITY
OF 1.5 MILES. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL
KEEP MOST COASTAL AREAS FREE OF CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE MORE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLING WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND THEN
SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ON THE ONSHORE FLOW
GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENS. THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ONLY MINOR COOLING ON FRIDAY. COOLING CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FORECASTING SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC JET
ENERGY STREAMING INTO NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CAL NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BOTH
MODELS PRODUCING SMALL QPF OVER SOCAL. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR
CONTINUITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

281520Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORECAST IN COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...

825 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

815 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A LARGE
FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF OVER 50 FEET.
WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22 SECOND
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ANOTHER WARM DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TODAY WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
AT SEA LEVEL, HOWEVER A SLIGHT ONSHORE PUSH HAS DEVELOPED AND WE
ACTUALLY GOT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. A FINGER OF THAT STRATUS HAS PUNCHED INTO THE SRN PART OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND IS ALSO ABOUT TO HIT THE BACK SIDE OF CATALINA.
SO WE`RE ON THE BRINK OF SOME COOLING AND SOME COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE THAT AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LA BASIN ARE RUNNING
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THE OFFSHORE INFLUENCE IS STILL DOMINANT
THERE, HOWEVER IN VENTURA/SB/SLO COUNTIES DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING
HIGHER, INDICATING THE MARINE PUSH IS STARTING THERE. SO WE`RE
LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY, WITH BEACHES
FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTH RUNNING COOLER (AND MUCH COOLER NORTH OF
PT CONCEPTION), BUT INLAND AREAS ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD REACH LA COUNTY COAST EITHER LATER TODAY OR
CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY SO COOLER TEMPS BY TOMORROW FOR BEACHES.
HOWEVER, 950 TEMPS ACTUALLY INCREASE WED BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO
INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO EITHER STAY THE SAME OR WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
DOWNTOWN LA SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO AIR MASSES SO A BIT
OF A TRICKY FORECAST THERE NEXT FEW DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...
No changes to forecast. Another very warm day today as a weak wave
approaches the area. This wave passes over the area tonight and
knocks down the ridge a bit but doesn`t look to bring any
precipitation. Rasch


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and
Sunday bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...
No changes to forecast. Another very warm day today as a weak wave
approaches the area. This wave passes over the area tonight and
knocks down the ridge a bit but doesn`t look to bring any
precipitation. Rasch


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and
Sunday bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...
No changes to forecast. Another very warm day today as a weak wave
approaches the area. This wave passes over the area tonight and
knocks down the ridge a bit but doesn`t look to bring any
precipitation. Rasch


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and
Sunday bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281618
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
918 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...
No changes to forecast. Another very warm day today as a weak wave
approaches the area. This wave passes over the area tonight and
knocks down the ridge a bit but doesn`t look to bring any
precipitation. Rasch


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and
Sunday bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:34 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORNING TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS WELL
INTO THE VALLEYS. MARINE LAYER RUNNING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT SFO TO SAC NEARLY 2 MB THIS
MORNING AND WINDS AT SUU GUSTING OVER 20 MPH.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING THEN CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INLAND QUICKLY TONIGHT...BUT
DISSIPATE FASTER WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE COAST
AND GOES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STILL ON TRACK FOR ABOUT A 10 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AS WINDS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT 18C AND OFFSHORE WINDS ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE...SO NOT EXPECTING RECORD WARMTH...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS NONETHELESS.

BIGGEST CONCERN FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT IS THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS OVER INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH RAINS FROM
LATE LAST WEEK SHOULD HELP MITIGATE IMPACT SOMEWHAT.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS TO MOSTLY 70S
FOR INLAND AREAS. IN SOME PLACES IT WILL BE A DROP OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW KICKS IN HELPING TO PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER AIR.
ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NAM VALUES ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR VALUES. WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS WHICH
WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MODERATE A BIT. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COASTAL SPOTS SHOULD SEE A SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST WHILE A MODERATE ONSHORE
PUSH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITH 60S AT THE
COAST AND 70S INLAND.

LOOKING TO NEXT WORK WEEK..ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHILE THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK NORTHWESTERLY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
FOCUSED ON ALASKA AND BC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY... LOW BASE STRATUS DECK
INTRUSION THIS MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
COASTAL VALLEYS. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS LAYER FROM 200FT THRU
1200FT THIS MORN. SEEMS TO VERIFY WITH OBS OF OVC002-OVC003 AT
VARIOUS SITES AS OF 430AM. LOOKING LIKE A SLOW BURN LATE THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST
TAF SITES. ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TODAY AND LEAD TO
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING AT KSFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR CIGS THRU 16Z. MVFR CIGS THRU 17-19Z.
LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AFTER 19Z. ONSHORE WINDS PICK UP LATE
MORNING AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER 30KT RANGE POSSIBLE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:33 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCAL AREAS ON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 281228
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
528 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281228
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
528 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SWITCH
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AT KIPL/KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281203
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z...

AT 1110Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED WITH A DEPTH OF
2000 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF TWENTY THREE DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  THROUGH 18Z
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST... AREAS OF VLIFR AND WIDERSPREAD AREAS OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL INCLUDE LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS IN LOS
ANGELES COUNTY.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. FOR 10Z-16Z THERE
IS A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281143
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING CERTAINLY GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF A TYPICAL JUNE
GLOOM MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BOTH AT THE COAST AND INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS. DID RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
IN THE AREA SO THOSE WERE BOTH ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. BIGGEST STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THE WARM READINGS ON MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS REALLY
TELL THE STORY WITH SFO-SAC NOW ONSHORE AROUND 3.5 MB WHICH IS
NEARLY 2 MB OVER YESTERDAY. EVEN THE N-S COMPONENT HAS CHANGED IN
FAVOR OF A WESTERLY FLOW BY DROPPING FROM 5.5 MB TO AROUND 2.5 MB.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST COASTAL
SPOTS TO MOSTLY 70S FOR INLAND AREAS. IN SOME PLACES IT WILL BE A
DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW KICKS IN HELPING TO PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER AIR.
ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NAM VALUES ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR VALUES. WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS WHICH
WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MODERATE A BIT. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COASTAL SPOTS SHOULD SEE A SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST WHILE A MODERATE ONSHORE
PUSH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITH 60S AT THE
COAST AND 70S INLAND.

LOOKING TO NEXT WORK WEEK..ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHILE THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK NORTHWESTERLY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
FOCUSED ON ALASKA AND BC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY... LOW BASE STRATUS DECK
INTRUSION THIS MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
COASTAL VALLEYS. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS LAYER FROM 200FT THRU
1200FT THIS MORN. SEEMS TO VERIFY WITH OBS OF OVC002-OVC003 AT
VARIOUS SITES AS OF 430AM. LOOKING LIKE A SLOW BURN LATE THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST
TAF SITES. ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TODAY AND LEAD TO
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING AT KSFO.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR CIGS THRU 16Z. MVFR CIGS THRU 17-19Z.
LINGERING FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AFTER 19Z. ONSHORE WINDS PICK UP LATE
MORNING AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER 30KT RANGE POSSIBLE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:33 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCAL AREAS ON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281104
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
404 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

GALE WATCH FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281104
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
404 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

GALE WATCH FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281104
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
404 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

GALE WATCH FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 281104
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
404 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO SHOWS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF SHOWERS REMAIN LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO WILL SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, SO POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. BUT IT`S TOO FAR
OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT AND IF ANYTHING THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HAVING THE LOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHICH WOULD
HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON US. OTHERWISE, THE CONSMODEL WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING
SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TODAY SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF PASSAGE, YIELDING MVFR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
PASSAGE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX OUT NICELY ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
LIFT AND BRINGING VFR. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DECOUPLE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND TRAP ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AT ACV. INTERIOR NW CAL
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR. BFG

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO FANFARE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WAVES. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER
WATERS, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SOME GALES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUIET THERE TO GO WARNING. WANT TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN SHAPES UP
FIRST. REGARDLESS, WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING STEEP NORTH WAVES BUILDING TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE INNER WATERS WILL HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS OFFSHORE,
BUT SHOULD COME DOWN IN HEIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO WINDS AND RESIDUAL SEAS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

GALE WATCH FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281037
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281037
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281037
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
GALE WARNING LEVELS.  THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND ZONE 676 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH WITH PERIODIC ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION.

THE INNER WATERS WILL BE GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW
FROM PASSES AND CANYONS WILL HAVE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 281020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WEST. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACH THE 90 DEG-F MARK THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS IS ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE WARMING AS WINDS ALOFT SHOW AN
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND AND EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE SLIGHT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF CLIPPING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE TROF BEING FORCED
TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...WILL NOT SEE STRONG WINDS
AS THE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
THEREFORE...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WILL NOT EXPECT A BIG COOL DOWN OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

MODELS DO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
PRECIP POTENTIAL...MODELS DO SIGNAL AN INCREASE POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOMENT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE STARTING ON FRIDAY WHEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS EACH BEGIN INDICATING MOUNTAIN PRECIP. MODELS
DO SHOW THE CUT-OFF PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...FOR THE START OF A COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970
KFAT 04-30      100:1981     52:1915     64:2013     37:1951

KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
KBFL 04-30      101:1981     55:1955     68:1981     38:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WEST. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACH THE 90 DEG-F MARK THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS IS ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE WARMING AS WINDS ALOFT SHOW AN
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND AND EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE SLIGHT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF CLIPPING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE TROF BEING FORCED
TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...WILL NOT SEE STRONG WINDS
AS THE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
THEREFORE...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WILL NOT EXPECT A BIG COOL DOWN OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

MODELS DO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
PRECIP POTENTIAL...MODELS DO SIGNAL AN INCREASE POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOMENT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE STARTING ON FRIDAY WHEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS EACH BEGIN INDICATING MOUNTAIN PRECIP. MODELS
DO SHOW THE CUT-OFF PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...FOR THE START OF A COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970
KFAT 04-30      100:1981     52:1915     64:2013     37:1951

KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
KBFL 04-30      101:1981     55:1955     68:1981     38:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WEST. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACH THE 90 DEG-F MARK THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS IS ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE WARMING AS WINDS ALOFT SHOW AN
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND AND EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE SLIGHT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF CLIPPING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE TROF BEING FORCED
TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...WILL NOT SEE STRONG WINDS
AS THE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
THEREFORE...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WILL NOT EXPECT A BIG COOL DOWN OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

MODELS DO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
PRECIP POTENTIAL...MODELS DO SIGNAL AN INCREASE POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOMENT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE STARTING ON FRIDAY WHEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS EACH BEGIN INDICATING MOUNTAIN PRECIP. MODELS
DO SHOW THE CUT-OFF PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...FOR THE START OF A COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970
KFAT 04-30      100:1981     52:1915     64:2013     37:1951

KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
KBFL 04-30      101:1981     55:1955     68:1981     38:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED MONDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE WEST. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACH THE 90 DEG-F MARK THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS IS ADDING SUPPORT FOR THE WARMING AS WINDS ALOFT SHOW AN
OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TREND AND EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE SLIGHT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROF CLIPPING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL STAY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE TROF BEING FORCED
TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISTRICT...WILL NOT SEE STRONG WINDS
AS THE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
THEREFORE...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WILL NOT EXPECT A BIG COOL DOWN OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

MODELS DO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
PRECIP POTENTIAL...MODELS DO SIGNAL AN INCREASE POSSIBILITY. FOR
THE MOMENT...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE STARTING ON FRIDAY WHEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS EACH BEGIN INDICATING MOUNTAIN PRECIP. MODELS
DO SHOW THE CUT-OFF PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...FOR THE START OF A COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970
KFAT 04-30      100:1981     52:1915     64:2013     37:1951

KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
KBFL 04-30      101:1981     55:1955     68:1981     38:1915
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PLUS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING CERTAINLY GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF A TYPICAL JUNE
GLOOM MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BOTH AT THE COAST AND INTO
ADJACENT VALLEYS. DID RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
IN THE AREA SO THOSE WERE BOTH ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. BIGGEST STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THE WARM READINGS ON MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS REALLY
TELL THE STORY WITH SFO-SAC NOW ONSHORE AROUND 3.5 MB WHICH IS
NEARLY 2 MB OVER YESTERDAY. EVEN THE N-S COMPONENT HAS CHANGED IN
FAVOR OF A WESTERLY FLOW BY DROPPING FROM 5.5 MB TO AROUND 2.5 MB.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST COASTAL
SPOTS TO MOSTLY 70S FOR INLAND AREAS. IN SOME PLACES IT WILL BE A
DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW KICKS IN HELPING TO PRODUCE WARMER AND DRIER AIR.
ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NAM VALUES ARE
TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR VALUES. WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
INLAND WITH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS WHICH
WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY MODERATE A BIT. HIGHS WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH COASTAL SPOTS SHOULD SEE A SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TO THE COAST WHILE A MODERATE ONSHORE
PUSH CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WITH 60S AT THE
COAST AND 70S INLAND.

LOOKING TO NEXT WORK WEEK..ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHILE THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES WEAK NORTHWESTERLY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
FOCUSED ON ALASKA AND BC.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE BODEGA BAY AND FORT
ORD PROFILERS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DEEPENED
TO APPROX 1200-1300 FEET. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE INTERIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. GUSTY W-NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG IN A LITTLE FARTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS ARE STILL CLEAR HOWEVER. ON TUESDAY THE
DIURNAL LAND-OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SET UP FOR A
WINDY DAY...PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING INLAND SURGE OF STRATUS AND FOG. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AS MENTIONED THE STRATUS SURGED IN A BIT FARTHER
THAN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS INDICATE BKN IFR CIG
OCCASIONALLY MIXING BACK TO SCATTERED. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THEN A RETURN OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM SQUARED SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCAL AREAS ON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 280950
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE WEEK.
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
THE VERY WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN ARIZONA WITH OCCASIONAL STRATO-
CU...WHILE THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SUFFICIENT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER YESTERDAY AS OUR WESTERN DESERTS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS PEAK NEAR 90 DEGREES.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND 21C ON
WEDNESDAY TO 24C ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUING WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE DESERTS. THESE READINGS STILL
FALL SHORT OF RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH COOLING WILL BE REALIZED INITIALLY AS HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. GFS AND EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLES MEANS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL DELAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY AROUND A DAY AND PUSH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN
BACK TO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW.
SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING MID CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
BASES AOA 10K FEET. A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ON THE DIURNAL SIDE...BUT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE GRADIENT THEY MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY FROM THE
EAST BY AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND STAY EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADIENTS WILL STAY ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND AT EITHER KBLH OR
KIPL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AT KBLH BUT MAY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE EAST BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KBLH OVER THE NEXT HOURS HOWEVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280923
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY MUCH OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP THE DAYS MORE MODERATE
ALONG THE COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUILDING THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL CLOUDS...FOG...AND COOLER DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A CLOUDLESS NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY. FOR
AREAS NEAR THE COAST IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE A TOUCH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING BUT
NO MORE STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE DRY EXCEPT AT
THE BEACHES AS WE SLOWLY TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL FLOW AND THEN WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. A BIG LOW CLOUD DECK HAS SMOTHERED THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IS TRYING TO TURN THE CORNER AT POINT CONCEPTION INTO THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS. THIS MIGHT OTHERWISE PORTEND A QUICK RETURN OF
COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT OUR BEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ONSHORE FLOW RATHER WEAK OR EVEN NEUTRAL OVER US
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR A DECENT MARINE
LAYER TO DEVELOP AND BRING BACK THE COASTAL CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW WE
EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR REAPPEARANCE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER UNDER A WEAK AMORPHOUS TROUGH THAT BEARS DOWN
OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANGES WILL
BE SUBTLE AND GRADUAL. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A
COOLING TREND AT THE COAST BEGINNING AND NOSING A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND EACH DAY. THAT WILL MEAN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL NOT START
COOLING UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT WEST IN THE
PACIFIC GETS PICKED UP BY THE WEAK WEST COAST TROUGH AND MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT INTO OUR REGION WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO REAL
CHANCE OF RAIN IS MANIFEST. THE MARINE LAYER GOES DEEP HOWEVER FOR A
MORE ACCELERATED CLOUDING AND COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 280900Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 205 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 215 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH A LARGE FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF
OVER 50 FEET. WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22
SECOND PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280923
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY MUCH OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP THE DAYS MORE MODERATE
ALONG THE COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUILDING THE
MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL CLOUDS...FOG...AND COOLER DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A CLOUDLESS NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY. FOR
AREAS NEAR THE COAST IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT US THE WARM
WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE A TOUCH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING BUT
NO MORE STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE DRY EXCEPT AT
THE BEACHES AS WE SLOWLY TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL FLOW AND THEN WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. A BIG LOW CLOUD DECK HAS SMOTHERED THE CENTRAL COAST
AND IS TRYING TO TURN THE CORNER AT POINT CONCEPTION INTO THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS. THIS MIGHT OTHERWISE PORTEND A QUICK RETURN OF
COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT OUR BEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ONSHORE FLOW RATHER WEAK OR EVEN NEUTRAL OVER US
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR A DECENT MARINE
LAYER TO DEVELOP AND BRING BACK THE COASTAL CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW WE
EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THEIR REAPPEARANCE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER UNDER A WEAK AMORPHOUS TROUGH THAT BEARS DOWN
OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANGES WILL
BE SUBTLE AND GRADUAL. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A
COOLING TREND AT THE COAST BEGINNING AND NOSING A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND EACH DAY. THAT WILL MEAN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL NOT START
COOLING UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT WEST IN THE
PACIFIC GETS PICKED UP BY THE WEAK WEST COAST TROUGH AND MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND MONDAY. THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT INTO OUR REGION WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO REAL
CHANCE OF RAIN IS MANIFEST. THE MARINE LAYER GOES DEEP HOWEVER FOR A
MORE ACCELERATED CLOUDING AND COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 280900Z...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 205 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 215 AM...A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH A LARGE FETCH OF 50 KT WINDS HAS GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF
OVER 50 FEET. WHILE MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICA...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS OF 4-5 FEET WITH A 20-22
SECOND PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AS THE SWELL PEAKS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS66 KSTO 280834
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
134 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...

A through is approaching the region today and the ridge axis will
move east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley will reverse
direction and flow through the delta should become stronger.
Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough will move
over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is moisture
deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high clouds
Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look to stay
between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normal`s during this time
period.

Northerly flow starts to develop on Wednesday and will become
breezy by Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the Great
Basin Wednesday night. Easterly winds will increase over the
mountains Wednesday night with the strongest wind gusts around
30 mph. Valley winds look to be in the 15 to 25 mph range on
Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
in the valley for most locations for Thursday and Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms look possible in the Sierra for both of those days.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and Sunday
bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 280834
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
134 AM PDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Friday)...

A through is approaching the region today and the ridge axis will
move east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley will reverse
direction and flow through the delta should become stronger.
Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough will move
over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is moisture
deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high clouds
Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look to stay
between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normal`s during this time
period.

Northerly flow starts to develop on Wednesday and will become
breezy by Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the Great
Basin Wednesday night. Easterly winds will increase over the
mountains Wednesday night with the strongest wind gusts around
30 mph. Valley winds look to be in the 15 to 25 mph range on
Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
in the valley for most locations for Thursday and Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms look possible in the Sierra for both of those days.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...

Weak disturbances will move through the region Saturday and Sunday
bringing some instability to the mountains. The best chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms is over the Sierra from around
Lake Tahoe southward on Saturday with chances also spreading to
the northern and coastal mountains for Sunday.

Weak disturbances on Monday and Tuesday will keep thunderstorm
chances on both days over the mountains. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Saturday but gradually cool each day through
the period to near seasonal normal`s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KLOX 280821
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280821
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT
TODAY THEN WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WED/THU AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A TYPICAL DIURNAL GRADIENT TREND IS EXPECTED WED/THU.

FORECAST-WISE...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE BATTLE OF MAN VERSUS MARINE LAYER
AS ONSHORE FLOW REESTABLISHES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS/FOG HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL
COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL COAST BEACHES
COULD REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLEAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. WITH
WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...WILL ONLY SOME
VERY LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES WILL
ANTICIPATE SOME COOLING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...AND SOME WARMING ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE MARINE LAYER
WITH STRATUS LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST...AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
COASTAL TEMPS WILL A FEW MORE DEGREES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND PERSISTENCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH ARE HANDLING
THE STRATUS PATTERN PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING...INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY STRATUS FOR THE AREA. SO...WILL GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST...WITH
A MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH AN UPTICK IN OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
NOTICEABLE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. NEAR
THE SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXCITEMENT LEVEL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD
MAKE AN NOTICEABLE TURN...PUSHING WELL INLAND SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE...TEMPS
WILL DROP NOTICEABLY WITH COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE BODEGA BAY AND FORT
ORD PROFILERS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DEEPENED
TO APPROX 1200-1300 FEET. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE INTERIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. GUSTY W-NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG IN A LITTLE FARTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS ARE STILL CLEAR HOWEVER. ON TUESDAY THE
DIURNAL LAND-OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SET UP FOR A
WINDY DAY...PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING INLAND SURGE OF STRATUS AND FOG. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AS MENTIONED THE STRATUS SURGED IN A BIT FARTHER
THAN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS INDICATE BKN IFR CIG
OCCASIONALLY MIXING BACK TO SCATTERED. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THEN A RETURN OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:11 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE BODEGA BAY AND FORT
ORD PROFILERS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DEEPENED
TO APPROX 1200-1300 FEET. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE INTERIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. GUSTY W-NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG IN A LITTLE FARTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS ARE STILL CLEAR HOWEVER. ON TUESDAY THE
DIURNAL LAND-OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SET UP FOR A
WINDY DAY...PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING INLAND SURGE OF STRATUS AND FOG. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AS MENTIONED THE STRATUS SURGED IN A BIT FARTHER
THAN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS INDICATE BKN IFR CIG
OCCASIONALLY MIXING BACK TO SCATTERED. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THEN A RETURN OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:11 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE BODEGA BAY AND FORT
ORD PROFILERS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DEEPENED
TO APPROX 1200-1300 FEET. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE INTERIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. GUSTY W-NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG IN A LITTLE FARTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS ARE STILL CLEAR HOWEVER. ON TUESDAY THE
DIURNAL LAND-OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SET UP FOR A
WINDY DAY...PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING INLAND SURGE OF STRATUS AND FOG. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AS MENTIONED THE STRATUS SURGED IN A BIT FARTHER
THAN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS INDICATE BKN IFR CIG
OCCASIONALLY MIXING BACK TO SCATTERED. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THEN A RETURN OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:11 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 PM PDT MONDAY...THE BODEGA BAY AND FORT
ORD PROFILERS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER THAT HAS DEEPENED
TO APPROX 1200-1300 FEET. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE INTERIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. GUSTY W-NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING AFTER
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG IN A LITTLE FARTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. INLAND AREAS ARE STILL CLEAR HOWEVER. ON TUESDAY THE
DIURNAL LAND-OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SET UP FOR A
WINDY DAY...PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING INLAND SURGE OF STRATUS AND FOG. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...AS MENTIONED THE STRATUS SURGED IN A BIT FARTHER
THAN EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING. RECENT OBS INDICATE BKN IFR CIG
OCCASIONALLY MIXING BACK TO SCATTERED. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THEN A RETURN OF STRONG AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS. EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY POISED TO MOVE BACK
IN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:11 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY WATERS. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0530Z...

AT 0450Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWS SHEET OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AT KSMX. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS MOVING INTO KSBP. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ALL OTHER SITES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KSGX 280406
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
906 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP THE DAYS MORE
MODERATE ALONG THE COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...
BUILDING THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS...FOG...AND COOLER
DAYS INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SAW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 10-15 DEGREES
F ABOVE VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. IT WAS MUCH DRIER AS WELL WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MANY AREAS. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAD WEAKENED BUT REMAINED OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND
WERE WEAKLY ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CA COAST WAS RIDGING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AT HIGHER LATITUDES
WILL GRADUALLY TOPPLE TO THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
EAST OFF THE PACIFIC AND INLAND OVER THE PACNW. BUT OVER SOCAL...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 580 DM...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DAYS
QUITE WARM...DESPITE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE RIDGE IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SOCAL COAST THIS WILL ALLOW
GENERAL COOLING AND A REBUILDING OF THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST SINCE
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS INLAND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP A
DEEP MARINE LAYER INTACT OVER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE... 8 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE PICKS UP ON TUE. LOW RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUE...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 15 MPH...BUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
WED/THU INLAND BEFORE TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSTO 280400
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
A through will approach the region on tomorrow and the ridge axis
will move east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley will
reverse direction and flow through the delta should become
stronger. Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough
will move over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is
moisture deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high
clouds Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look
to stay between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normal`s during
this time period.

Northerly flow starts to develop on Wednesday and will become
breezy by Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the Great
Basin Wednesday night. Easterly winds will increase over the
mountains Wednesday night with the strongest wind gusts around
30 mph. Valley winds look to be in the 15 to 25 mph range on
Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
in the valley for most locations for Thursday and Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms look possible in the Sierra for both of those days.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park Area and over
the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
over all the mountains of interior Northern California on Sunday
and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees
above normal) on Friday with North to Northeast winds in the
morning. The Delta breeze along with cooler airmass over the
weekend into Monday bringing cooler temperatures, especially
around the Delta and adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the
weekend and Monday will be near normal to several degrees above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 280400
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures to the area through the week. Isolated thunderstorms
possible near the crest of the Sierra Thursday and Friday south of
Lake Tahoe. Continued warm this weekend with thunderstorms possible
over all the mountains.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
A through will approach the region on tomorrow and the ridge axis
will move east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley will
reverse direction and flow through the delta should become
stronger. Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough
will move over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is
moisture deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high
clouds Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look
to stay between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normal`s during
this time period.

Northerly flow starts to develop on Wednesday and will become
breezy by Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the Great
Basin Wednesday night. Easterly winds will increase over the
mountains Wednesday night with the strongest wind gusts around
30 mph. Valley winds look to be in the 15 to 25 mph range on
Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
in the valley for most locations for Thursday and Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms look possible in the Sierra for both of those days.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park Area and over
the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
over all the mountains of interior Northern California on Sunday
and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees
above normal) on Friday with North to Northeast winds in the
morning. The Delta breeze along with cooler airmass over the
weekend into Monday bringing cooler temperatures, especially
around the Delta and adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the
weekend and Monday will be near normal to several degrees above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Delta Breeze will increase on Tue with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPSR 280356
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW...NOW CENTERED WAY OFF TO
THE EAST OF ARIZONA AND EAST OF NEW MEXICO...CONTINUED TO SLUGGISLY
PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUED WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA LEADING TO
AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WERE AT AND EAST OF GLOBE AND IT APPEARED VIA RADAR THAT
THERE WERE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS RESULTING FROM THE CLOUDINESS.
OVERALL A DRY AND SOMEWHAT SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND FOLLOWING SUNSET AND
LACK OF MIXING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAD DISSIPATED. IR IMAGERY
AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. H5 PLOTS SHOWED A
CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE WERE UP AROUND 60-70M. TEMPS
TODAY ALSO CLIMBED WITH PHOENIX REACHING TO 87 DEGREES TODAY...JUST
2 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WE CAN
EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MID CLOUDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AS WELL. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW.
SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING MID CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
BASES AOA 10K FEET. A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ON THE DIURNAL SIDE...BUT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE GRADIENT THEY MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY FROM THE
EAST BY AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND STAY EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADIENTS WILL STAY ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND AT EITHER KBLH OR
KIPL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AT KBLH BUT MAY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE EAST BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KBLH OVER THE NEXT HOURS HOWEVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY



000
FXUS66 KMTR 280355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:33 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 280355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY THAT
PRODUCED A RECORD HIGH AT OUR DOWNTOWN OAKLAND SITE OF 82 DEGREES
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THE MARINE LAYER STARTED TO ENVELOP THE COAST WELL AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED A HIGH OF 89 DEGREES
AND ITS CURRENTLY 55 DEGREES OR 34 DEGREES OF COOLING IN JUST A
FEW HOURS! EVEN THE CITY WARMED TO 76 DEGREES AND IS NOW DOWN TO A
BLUSTERY 51 DEGREES WITH 24 MPH WINDS AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND UP TO
30 MPH AT KSFO. ITS UNDER THESE SHALLOW MARINE LAYERS (CURRENTLY
AT ABOUT 1000 FEET BUT DEEPENING) AND DURING THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MARINE AIR THAT WE OFTEN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS SAN BRUNO. CANT HELP BUT NOTICE
WITH OUR SST TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THESE
MARINE PUSHES ARE BEHAVING A LITTLE MORE LIKE WE USED TO OBSERVE
AND HAVE SOME GUSTO AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE.

ANYWAY...THIS OBVIOUSLY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AS A POTENT BUT DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND RAMPS UP THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
OFF THE OCEAN FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER GETS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT AND MIXING IN
THE LOW-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY ALL DAY GRAY INSIDE THE BAY FOR TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL KEEP
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND INSIDE
THE BAYS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST
LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE HILLS. EXPECT A SHARP UPWARD
CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRYING
WINDS. THE ECMWF MOS IS PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHOWS A 90 FOR
SANTA ROSA ON THURSDAY AND 93 AT CONCORD. OFFSHORE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG.

AN UPPER TROUGH MAY TRY AND DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:33 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 280337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2345Z.

AT 2250Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THRU TUE. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT KSBP...KOXR AND KLGB WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 280337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GRADUAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THANKS TO GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS. THE HIGH OF 93 AT FILLMORE WAS THE WARMEST HIGH TEMP. THERE
WAS ALSO A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT TODAY...BUT WAS
WELL BELOW THE RECORD OF 98 SET IN 2008.

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THERE MAY BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE CENTRAL COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MILD IN THE
BREEZY AREAS...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR SOME FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO SRN CA LATER TONIGHT
AND TUE. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA ON WED...WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED FOR THU. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND INTERIOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TUE MORNING.
TEMPS TUE THRU THU WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS. FOR COASTAL AREAS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THU ALTHO THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN SOME AREAS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2345Z.

AT 2250Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THRU TUE. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT KSBP...KOXR AND KLGB WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS SAME AREA WED INTO WED EVENING.
MINIMAL SCA WINDS WILL AFFECT PZZ676 THRU LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LESS THAN SCA WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280040
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
540 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280040
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
540 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280040
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
540 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280040
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
540 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:17 PM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS
COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER TO 600-1000 FEET DEEP. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS CAN BE SEEN FROM EUREKA TO THE BIG SUR COAST AND THE STRATUS
HAS FILLED IN QUICKLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION IN THE LAST
1-2 HOURS. THINK THE KEY TO CIG/VSBY FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD
HINGE ON THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HOLDING IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MARINE LAYER MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE IN DEPTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO 1000 FEET.
THE 04/27 18Z NAM MODEL RUN INITIALIZED TOO LOW ON THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENTS...BUT DID WELL INITIALIZING THE SFO-SAC GRAD. MODELS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE W-NW GRADIENTS AND WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BAY AREA...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IT`S A HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING DUE TO THE SHALLOW MARINE CLOUD LAYER. DECENT LATE PM
OCEAN-LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES...LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TIL 04Z. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THE STRATUS
WILL REACH KSFO TUESDAY MORNING IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES STAY
COMPRESSED. THEREFORE DECIDED TO SCALE BACK THE DURATION OF
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS TO A TEMPO GROUP 13Z-17Z. OVERALL THE BIGGER
STORY IS LIKELY TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER NEXT
24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD. COORD AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CWSU OFFICE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR EXCEPT A FEW BRIEF PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECTING THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MOST LIKELY TO BE POISED TO MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 280015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
515 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS HAS STUCK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT
LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COASTS AND SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH TOWARD CEC
AND ACV THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
TO EXPECT TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL...SOME DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONSIDERING FOG IS EVIDENT ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. THE WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.

VFR WILL PRIMARILY PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET
AND 8 TO 10 SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA STATE WILL BE A BUILDING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND
MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
ALL ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 280015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
515 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS HAS STUCK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT
LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COASTS AND SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH TOWARD CEC
AND ACV THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
TO EXPECT TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL...SOME DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONSIDERING FOG IS EVIDENT ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. THE WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.

VFR WILL PRIMARILY PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET
AND 8 TO 10 SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA STATE WILL BE A BUILDING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND
MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
ALL ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 280015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
515 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS HAS STUCK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT
LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COASTS AND SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH TOWARD CEC
AND ACV THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
TO EXPECT TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL...SOME DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONSIDERING FOG IS EVIDENT ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. THE WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.

VFR WILL PRIMARILY PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET
AND 8 TO 10 SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA STATE WILL BE A BUILDING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND
MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
ALL ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 280015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
515 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS HAS STUCK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT
LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COASTS AND SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH TOWARD CEC
AND ACV THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
TO EXPECT TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL...SOME DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONSIDERING FOG IS EVIDENT ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. THE WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.

VFR WILL PRIMARILY PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET
AND 8 TO 10 SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA STATE WILL BE A BUILDING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND
MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
ALL ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272349 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2345Z.

AT 2250Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THRU TUE. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT KSBP...KOXR AND KLGB WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 272246 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR
MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOW 70S SIERRA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING THERE. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. WINDS ALOFT AND AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUE-WED, ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
30-35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAKE WIND HEADLINES WITH MOST GUSTS
25-30 MPH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY, AND WE
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE WEAK
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW CHANGES TODAY TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING MODERATE
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO ALPINE COUNTY.

BY THE WEEKEND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WILL THEIR COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
TAHOE. ON SUNDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEVADA HELPING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SIERRA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRK 10-14Z. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH GUST 15-20KTS. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 272246 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR
MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOW 70S SIERRA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING THERE. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. WINDS ALOFT AND AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUE-WED, ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
30-35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAKE WIND HEADLINES WITH MOST GUSTS
25-30 MPH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY, AND WE
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE WEAK
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW CHANGES TODAY TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING MODERATE
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO ALPINE COUNTY.

BY THE WEEKEND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WILL THEIR COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
TAHOE. ON SUNDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEVADA HELPING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SIERRA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRK 10-14Z. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH GUST 15-20KTS. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 272246 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR
MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOW 70S SIERRA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING THERE. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. WINDS ALOFT AND AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUE-WED, ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
30-35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAKE WIND HEADLINES WITH MOST GUSTS
25-30 MPH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY, AND WE
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE WEAK
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW CHANGES TODAY TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING MODERATE
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO ALPINE COUNTY.

BY THE WEEKEND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WILL THEIR COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
TAHOE. ON SUNDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEVADA HELPING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SIERRA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRK 10-14Z. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH GUST 15-20KTS. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
RAPIDLY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE LATER PARK OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA HAS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTED LOW. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (MIXING RATIOS 4-6 G/KG) FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS AIDING TO DEVELOP THE CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY STEADILY TODAY, BECOMING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, AND INCHING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MUCH MORE CALM ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND HAVE
STILL HELD ON TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING THE 582DM HEIGHT. WITH A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS AND A
NEARLY CALM WIND PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPROACHING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
(PHOENIX AVERAGE HIGH IS 89/90 DEGREES AND YUMA IS 90 DEGREES). AS
IT STANDS NOW, THE WARMEST FORECAST DAYS ARE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND 100
DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
DESERTS OF ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO
FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF
NOW, MODELS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT
MONDAY, SO WE MAY AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND HOLD ON TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AS FAR AS TIMING BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...AND WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CDEWEY
AVIATION....CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY




000
FXUS66 KEKA 272202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
302 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. EXPECT INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALMOST CLOUD FREE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WITH THE RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE FORECASTED TODAY AND A FEW 90S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE COAST CAN EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND 60S. THOUGH, THE IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST MAY STAY
UNDER STRATUS MOST OF TODAY DUE TO WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TONIGHT.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...AFTER A FOGGY MORNING ALONG THE COAST...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
ALONG LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.  AT THAT POINT...LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST...WITH IFR TO PERIODIOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS YET AGAIN. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT AND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY BREAK LATE IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
IMPACTS THE COAST.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AT UKI...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET AND 8 TO 10
SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE WATERS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20
KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRIEFLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.  THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD
SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA
STATE WILL BE A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL
FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.  THE END
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD
WAVES AND MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL.  BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED
WITH A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  AT THIS POINT CONDIFENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.  ALL ADVISORIES WILL
EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BRC


/BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 272150
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY ACROSS ALMOST ALL
OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. LOOK AT THE LATEST READINGS SHOW SAN
FRANCISCO AT 73...SAN RAFAEL 79...LIVERMORE 84...AND SAN JOSE PLUS
SALINAS AT 80. THE WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH HAD BEEN NEARLY
NEUTRAL HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO WEAK
WESTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS BEEN
CUT IN HALF. ALONG WITH THE INLAND HEATING...THOSE FACTORS HAVE
ALLOWED CLOUDS TO MOVE TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS ALONG SAN
MATEO...MARIN...AND SONOMA COUNTIES. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT THE FARALLONES DUE TO FOG.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST PLUS
ADJACENT VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY GET REPORTS OF FOG DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE PARTICULARLY ALONG HIGHWAY 1. AT THE SAME TIME AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/BC COAST BY TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH ALL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS LOCALLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY ZONAL WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE SAW
TODAY BY FRIDAY. STILL NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 272140
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
240 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
As expected with the upper level ridge moving overhead,
temperatures at 2 pm are roughly 6 to 12 deg F above 24 hrs ago.
The northern Sacramento Valley and some of the higher terrain
showing the greatest change, while the northern San Joaquin
Valley shows the smallest change. The pressure gradients from MFR
to RDD and RDD to SAC have really relaxed, resulting in weakened
winds. Winds will remain breezy in some spots within the northern
and western Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile the SAC to
RNO gradient across the Sierra has continued and will gradually
weaken overnight.

A weak trough will move over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with a secondary pulse on Wednesday into early Thursday.
Little moisture will be present and any precip should remain
removed to the north, mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible
effect of this trough will be a few more clouds and more of an
onshore flow, which should allow for a decent Delta Breeze to
develop. Temperatures may cool a few degrees, but will remain much
above normal for this time of year. However, more noticeable
cooling expected for areas directly impacted by Delta Breeze. The
trough moves east Thursday with a return to high temperatures near
90 in the valley and upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park
Area and over the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over all the mountains of interior Northern
California on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees above normal)
on Friday with north to northeast winds in the morning. The Delta
Breeze along with a cooler airmass will bring cooler temperatures
over the weekend into Monday, especially around the Delta and
adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the weekend and Monday
will be near normal to several degrees above normal for this time
of year.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Northerly gusts are rapidly weakening this afternoon in the
valley. Delta Breeze will begin this evening and increase into
Tue. Over the northern Sierra, local NE wind gusts 15-25 kts to
continue tonight. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 272140
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
240 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
As expected with the upper level ridge moving overhead,
temperatures at 2 pm are roughly 6 to 12 deg F above 24 hrs ago.
The northern Sacramento Valley and some of the higher terrain
showing the greatest change, while the northern San Joaquin
Valley shows the smallest change. The pressure gradients from MFR
to RDD and RDD to SAC have really relaxed, resulting in weakened
winds. Winds will remain breezy in some spots within the northern
and western Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile the SAC to
RNO gradient across the Sierra has continued and will gradually
weaken overnight.

A weak trough will move over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with a secondary pulse on Wednesday into early Thursday.
Little moisture will be present and any precip should remain
removed to the north, mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible
effect of this trough will be a few more clouds and more of an
onshore flow, which should allow for a decent Delta Breeze to
develop. Temperatures may cool a few degrees, but will remain much
above normal for this time of year. However, more noticeable
cooling expected for areas directly impacted by Delta Breeze. The
trough moves east Thursday with a return to high temperatures near
90 in the valley and upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park
Area and over the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over all the mountains of interior Northern
California on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees above normal)
on Friday with north to northeast winds in the morning. The Delta
Breeze along with a cooler airmass will bring cooler temperatures
over the weekend into Monday, especially around the Delta and
adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the weekend and Monday
will be near normal to several degrees above normal for this time
of year.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Northerly gusts are rapidly weakening this afternoon in the
valley. Delta Breeze will begin this evening and increase into
Tue. Over the northern Sierra, local NE wind gusts 15-25 kts to
continue tonight. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 272140
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
240 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
As expected with the upper level ridge moving overhead,
temperatures at 2 pm are roughly 6 to 12 deg F above 24 hrs ago.
The northern Sacramento Valley and some of the higher terrain
showing the greatest change, while the northern San Joaquin
Valley shows the smallest change. The pressure gradients from MFR
to RDD and RDD to SAC have really relaxed, resulting in weakened
winds. Winds will remain breezy in some spots within the northern
and western Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile the SAC to
RNO gradient across the Sierra has continued and will gradually
weaken overnight.

A weak trough will move over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with a secondary pulse on Wednesday into early Thursday.
Little moisture will be present and any precip should remain
removed to the north, mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible
effect of this trough will be a few more clouds and more of an
onshore flow, which should allow for a decent Delta Breeze to
develop. Temperatures may cool a few degrees, but will remain much
above normal for this time of year. However, more noticeable
cooling expected for areas directly impacted by Delta Breeze. The
trough moves east Thursday with a return to high temperatures near
90 in the valley and upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park
Area and over the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over all the mountains of interior Northern
California on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees above normal)
on Friday with north to northeast winds in the morning. The Delta
Breeze along with a cooler airmass will bring cooler temperatures
over the weekend into Monday, especially around the Delta and
adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the weekend and Monday
will be near normal to several degrees above normal for this time
of year.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Northerly gusts are rapidly weakening this afternoon in the
valley. Delta Breeze will begin this evening and increase into
Tue. Over the northern Sierra, local NE wind gusts 15-25 kts to
continue tonight. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 272140
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
240 PM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
As expected with the upper level ridge moving overhead,
temperatures at 2 pm are roughly 6 to 12 deg F above 24 hrs ago.
The northern Sacramento Valley and some of the higher terrain
showing the greatest change, while the northern San Joaquin
Valley shows the smallest change. The pressure gradients from MFR
to RDD and RDD to SAC have really relaxed, resulting in weakened
winds. Winds will remain breezy in some spots within the northern
and western Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile the SAC to
RNO gradient across the Sierra has continued and will gradually
weaken overnight.

A weak trough will move over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with a secondary pulse on Wednesday into early Thursday.
Little moisture will be present and any precip should remain
removed to the north, mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible
effect of this trough will be a few more clouds and more of an
onshore flow, which should allow for a decent Delta Breeze to
develop. Temperatures may cool a few degrees, but will remain much
above normal for this time of year. However, more noticeable
cooling expected for areas directly impacted by Delta Breeze. The
trough moves east Thursday with a return to high temperatures near
90 in the valley and upper 60s and 70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Weak trough over the area Friday into early next week will bring
some instability over the mountains as disturbances move through
Northern California. The best chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Friday is over the Sierra and around Lassen Park
Area and over the Sierra on Saturday. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over all the mountains of interior Northern
California on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be warm (about 10 to 20 degrees above normal)
on Friday with north to northeast winds in the morning. The Delta
Breeze along with a cooler airmass will bring cooler temperatures
over the weekend into Monday, especially around the Delta and
adjacent Valley areas. Temperatures over the weekend and Monday
will be near normal to several degrees above normal for this time
of year.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hrs.
Northerly gusts are rapidly weakening this afternoon in the
valley. Delta Breeze will begin this evening and increase into
Tue. Over the northern Sierra, local NE wind gusts 15-25 kts to
continue tonight. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 272133
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR
MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOW 70S SIERRA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING THERE. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. WINDS ALOFT AND AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUE-WED, ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
30-35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAKE WIND HEADLINES WITH MOST GUSTS
25-30 MPH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY, AND WE
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE WEAK
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW CHANGES TODAY TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING MODERATE
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO ALPINE COUNTY.

BY THE WEEKEND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WILL THEIR COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND COULD BEGIN TO MAKE THERE WAY
AS FAR NORTH AS TAHOE. BY SUNDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHOULD SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEVADA HELPING TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME WIDE SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SIERRA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRK 10-14Z. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH GUST 15-20KTS. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 272133
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR
MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOW 70S SIERRA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL PUSH
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING THERE. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. WINDS ALOFT AND AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TUE-WED, ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
30-35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAKE WIND HEADLINES WITH MOST GUSTS
25-30 MPH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY, AND WE
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE WEAK
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW CHANGES TODAY TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD UP ALONG THE SIERRA. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING MODERATE
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO ALPINE COUNTY.

BY THE WEEKEND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS WILL THEIR COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND COULD BEGIN TO MAKE THERE WAY
AS FAR NORTH AS TAHOE. BY SUNDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SHOULD SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEVADA HELPING TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME WIDE SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SIERRA SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRK 10-14Z. EAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH GUST 15-20KTS. TOLBY

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272110
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND AND
IS PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEG F ABOVE YDAY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS AND 8-16 DEG F ABOVE YDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. 12Z WRF
INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND AND STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING FOR
OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TOP SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WHILE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER NORCAL.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOCAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS PROGGED FOR OUR AREA...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE VALLEYS AS WELL. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY
AND SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...MAINLY THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PLEASANTS PEAK RECORDED THE HIGHEST GUST OF THE MORNING...WITH A 64
MPH GUST AT 9 AM...WHILE FREMONT CANYON REACHED 61 MPH AND ONTARIO
AIRPORT REACHED 44 MPH. CURRENTLY...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...NOW DOWN TO 6.0 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN OFF THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY
IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND
LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD
BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SOME COOLING FOR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
272015Z...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE TAPERING OFF...BUT IN ORANGE COUNTY AND
THE INLAND EMPIRE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF STRONG UP AND
DOWNDRAFTS. COASTAL AIRPORTS WITH A SEA-BREEZE THERE WILL BE SOME
MINOR...10 TO 15KTS OR SO WIND SHEAR 2000 FEET MSL AND ABOVE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING
AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE VALLEYS AS WELL. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY
AND SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...MAINLY THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
PLEASANTS PEAK RECORDED THE HIGHEST GUST OF THE MORNING...WITH A 64
MPH GUST AT 9 AM...WHILE FREMONT CANYON REACHED 61 MPH AND ONTARIO
AIRPORT REACHED 44 MPH. CURRENTLY...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE WEAKENING...NOW DOWN TO 6.0 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN OFF THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY
IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND
LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD
BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SOME COOLING FOR THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
272015Z...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE TAPERING OFF...BUT IN ORANGE COUNTY AND
THE INLAND EMPIRE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF STRONG UP AND
DOWNDRAFTS. COASTAL AIRPORTS WITH A SEA-BREEZE THERE WILL BE SOME
MINOR...10 TO 15KTS OR SO WIND SHEAR 2000 FEET MSL AND ABOVE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING
AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 272006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 272006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 271846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 271846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 271846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KSGX 271845
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM. W/W/A SECTION
UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 857 AM...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271845
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM. W/W/A SECTION
UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 857 AM...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271845
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM. W/W/A SECTION
UPDATED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 857 AM...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



000
FXUS66 KMTR 271751
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271751
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271751
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271751
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 05Z WITH POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS RETURN FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT. WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271636
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES IN
WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT
A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION ACROSS THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271636
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES IN
WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT
A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION ACROSS THE COAST AND
COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 271630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...DECENT SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IN PROGRESS
AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS
WILL BE A ONE OFF EVENT AS THERE ISN`T MUCH SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
JUST ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE AND NOT EXPECTING MANY CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271610
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: GASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271610
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT MONDAY...SUNNY START TO THE DAY
WITH MOST PLACES 4 TO 8 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY. KOAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AS MUCH AS 10C OF WARMING UP TO 900 MB SO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS SFO-SAC HAS
DROPPED TO AROUND NEUTRAL WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM COASTAL SPOTS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S DOWN TO THE OCEAN UP TO MID
70S TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER
THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT SUBSIDENCE
WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS DECREASE. ALL OF
THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR MORE...ABOVE
NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: GASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSGX 271557
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
857 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271557
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
857 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271557
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
857 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE VALLEYS AS WELL.
COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...AND UP INTO THE HIGH 50S IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN FACT...PLEASANTS PEAK IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS REACHED 61 MPH AT 630 AM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME 30-
35 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO PARTS OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 7.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. THE
DECENT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE FORM OF 40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS.
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP BRING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS. A RIDGE
INTRUDING INTO CALIFORNIA IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE RIDGE
AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THOSE AREAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 5-10...AND LOCALLY 15...DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. FLOW SHOULD BECOME PRE-DOMINANTLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
GRADUALLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...AND AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS THE ISSUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SEA-BREEZE AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL KICK IN AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AROUND 271800Z AT 8 TO 10 KTS...
THEN SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 280000Z. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS
AND LOCAL LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE WINDS...COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING HUMIDITIES...COULD BRING A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME.
POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUED DRY TOMORROW WITH MORE WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.

HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE WARM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 271541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME
DETERIORATING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EXITING LOW TO OUR EAST...CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS ARIZONA
WITH ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. PER 12Z
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS...TUCSON HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND AS SUCH THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
HIGHER ELEVATION CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A LARGE WARMING TREND OVER THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO EDITS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CA TODAY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING...ACQUIRING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 271541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME
DETERIORATING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EXITING LOW TO OUR EAST...CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS ARIZONA
WITH ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AND SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. PER 12Z
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS...TUCSON HAD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND AS SUCH THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
HIGHER ELEVATION CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A LARGE WARMING TREND OVER THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO EDITS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CA TODAY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING...ACQUIRING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271533
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
833 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Updated Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
North to northeast winds make a big different in temperature,
especially during the night and early morning hours. Even as of
7am, many areas were between 5 and 15 F warmer than 24 hrs ago.
Redding was 17 degrees warmer and Vacaville was a whooping 23
degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago. The ridge axis will shift east
across the state and into the Great Basin today into Tuesday. As
heights continue to increase, expect temperatures today to max out
about 7-10 degrees warmer than Sunday with some spots in the
valley likely reaching the 90 degree mark. Pressure gradient will
relax some, which should allow for lighter offshore flow than
yesterday. Although, wind will remain breezy in some spots along
the Sierra and western Central Valley.

Weak trough will approach the coast on Tuesday and across the
Wednesday into early Thursday. As previously advertised, moisture
will be starved and any precip should remain removed to the north,
mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible effect of this trough
will be a few more clouds and more of an onshore flow. This should
allow for decent delta breeze to develop. Temperatures may cool a
few degrees but will remain much above normal for this time of
year. More noticeable cooling for areas directly impacted by delta
breeze though. Trough moves east Thursday with a return to high
temperatures near 90 in the valley and 60s-70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
The general consensus in the extended period is for a weak upper
trough to remain over the region with a very weak closed low off
the coast of central California. If this solution pans out, warm
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The pattern
would favor a Delta Breeze, but would likely bring cooling only to
areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The pattern would also be
favorable for isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hours.
Northerly 10-20 kts with local gusts around 25 kts in the Central
Valley will be possible through about 00Z Tuesday. Over the
northern Sierra, local northeast wind gusts 25-35 kts possible
today, decreasing in the afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 271533
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
833 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Updated Discussion (Today through Thursday)...
North to northeast winds make a big different in temperature,
especially during the night and early morning hours. Even as of
7am, many areas were between 5 and 15 F warmer than 24 hrs ago.
Redding was 17 degrees warmer and Vacaville was a whooping 23
degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago. The ridge axis will shift east
across the state and into the Great Basin today into Tuesday. As
heights continue to increase, expect temperatures today to max out
about 7-10 degrees warmer than Sunday with some spots in the
valley likely reaching the 90 degree mark. Pressure gradient will
relax some, which should allow for lighter offshore flow than
yesterday. Although, wind will remain breezy in some spots along
the Sierra and western Central Valley.

Weak trough will approach the coast on Tuesday and across the
Wednesday into early Thursday. As previously advertised, moisture
will be starved and any precip should remain removed to the north,
mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible effect of this trough
will be a few more clouds and more of an onshore flow. This should
allow for decent delta breeze to develop. Temperatures may cool a
few degrees but will remain much above normal for this time of
year. More noticeable cooling for areas directly impacted by delta
breeze though. Trough moves east Thursday with a return to high
temperatures near 90 in the valley and 60s-70s in the mountains.
JClapp/CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
The general consensus in the extended period is for a weak upper
trough to remain over the region with a very weak closed low off
the coast of central California. If this solution pans out, warm
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The pattern
would favor a Delta Breeze, but would likely bring cooling only to
areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The pattern would also be
favorable for isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hours.
Northerly 10-20 kts with local gusts around 25 kts in the Central
Valley will be possible through about 00Z Tuesday. Over the
northern Sierra, local northeast wind gusts 25-35 kts possible
today, decreasing in the afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 271151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

AT 0840Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2700 FEET DEEP WITH THE TOP AT
3250 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF SEVENTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN EASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LGT LLWS/TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 271144
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
444 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CA TODAY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING...ACQUIRING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 271144
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
444 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...STRONGER THAN NORMAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
12Z TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SE CA TODAY WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING...ACQUIRING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271136
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST 5 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KT. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER 05Z THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KEKA 271128
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. EXPECT INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE
NEARLY OVERHEAD INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING
UPWARD TODAY, RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE FORECASTED
TODAY AND A FEW 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE COAST CAN
EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. THOUGH, THE
IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST MAY STAY UNDER STRATUS MOST OF TODAY DUE
TO WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
RETURN TONIGHT. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC. BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD,
THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEL NORTE COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT
NOT ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE
MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
BUT IT`S TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE,
THE CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING
BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER A MORNING OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST,
CIGS SHOULD LIFT ALLOWING FOR A VFR DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING OVER NW CAL TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NW CAL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SHOW AN ONSHORE PUSH
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER DUE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT, THERE COULD BE DEEPER PENETRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS UP THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY EVENING, BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE LEAVING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. IF THE FRONT COMES IN A BIT STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS, BUT MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT YIELDING MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NW SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, GENERATED FROM A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. LOOK FOR
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 TO 11 FT AT ABOUT 12 SECONDS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOMETIME TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THIS DEPENDS ON
HOW FAST THE WINDS INCREASE AND WHEN THE SWELL ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS, AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES IN BEHIND TUESDAYS WEAK FRONT
NORTHERLY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEED FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SEAS. AT
THIS POINT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WE WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS OVER THE COMING CYCLES, BUT WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE INNER WATERS WILL BE IN MORE OF A
DIURNAL TREND WITH HIGHER WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271128
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
428 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. EXPECT INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE
NEARLY OVERHEAD INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING
UPWARD TODAY, RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE FORECASTED
TODAY AND A FEW 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE COAST CAN
EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. THOUGH, THE
IMMEDIATE REDWOOD COAST MAY STAY UNDER STRATUS MOST OF TODAY DUE
TO WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
RETURN TONIGHT. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD
ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC. BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD,
THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEL NORTE COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT
NOT ZERO. ANY QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH MOVING OVER US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE
MODELS HINT AT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AS IT COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
BUT IT`S TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE,
THE CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AND IT HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING
BACK UP (ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER A MORNING OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST,
CIGS SHOULD LIFT ALLOWING FOR A VFR DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING OVER NW CAL TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NW CAL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SHOW AN ONSHORE PUSH
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER DUE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT, THERE COULD BE DEEPER PENETRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS UP THE RIVER VALLEYS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY EVENING, BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE LEAVING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. IF THE FRONT COMES IN A BIT STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS, BUT MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT YIELDING MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NW SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, GENERATED FROM A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. LOOK FOR
HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 TO 11 FT AT ABOUT 12 SECONDS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOMETIME TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THIS DEPENDS ON
HOW FAST THE WINDS INCREASE AND WHEN THE SWELL ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS, AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES IN BEHIND TUESDAYS WEAK FRONT
NORTHERLY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEED FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO SEAS. AT
THIS POINT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WE WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS OVER THE COMING CYCLES, BUT WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE INNER WATERS WILL BE IN MORE OF A
DIURNAL TREND WITH HIGHER WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271052
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271052
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271052
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 271052
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SUCH
THAT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.  STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND AT THAT POINT MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE
LEVELS... OR THEY MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS DURING THE WEEK OF WINDS DIMINISHING
TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT.

INNER WATERS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
THOUGH REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN THE
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 650 AND 655.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSES ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MARINERS ALONG THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTLINES WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS OTHER THAN NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM POINT MUGU TO MALIBU.  THERE IS A FORTY
PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORE STRONGLY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 655.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MODEST COOLING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT MONDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THAT
SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS WARMED THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BY AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES C OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST FROM ACV TO SFO HAVE BEEN
INCREASING WHILE GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS
DECREASE. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO A WARMER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES...OR
MORE...ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND MOST OF THE COLD AIR AS WELL...WILL LIFT WELL TO
OUR NORTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE CA COAST. THE TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MODEST
COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COOLING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
LITTLE...IF ANY...COOLING.

THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...AND THUS
FORECASTS WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...FORECASTS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM
TO HANG BACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW.
THUS...THE ECMWF HOLDS TEMPS NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN HAS ASPECTS OF BOTH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...BUT FAVORS THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
FORECAST MODEST WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.

NO BIG CHANGES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 271022
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SIMPLISTIC AND
PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CA AND BRING
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY TRENDING SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SIERRA. OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN
THERMOMETER READINGS WILL LIKELY TOP THE NINETY DEGREE MARK
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS. MAX TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DURING MIDWEEK...THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
PARK ITSELF OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY THUR NIGHT. AFTERWARD...
THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS DEVELOP THIS FEATURE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
ANCHOR IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED ON MOISTURE...A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SET OFF ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BEGINNING
FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE SPRINKLED IN ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST ACCORDINGLY IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 271022
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SIMPLISTIC AND
PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL CA AND BRING
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY TRENDING SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SIERRA. OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN
THERMOMETER READINGS WILL LIKELY TOP THE NINETY DEGREE MARK
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS. MAX TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DURING MIDWEEK...THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
SLIDE INTO NORTHERN CA. THE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
PARK ITSELF OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY THUR NIGHT. AFTERWARD...
THE GFS AND ECM SOLNS DEVELOP THIS FEATURE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
ANCHOR IT OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED ON MOISTURE...A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SET OFF ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST BEGINNING
FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE SPRINKLED IN ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST ACCORDINGLY IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PD. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-27       98:2004     56:1894     65:1926     36:1955
KFAT 04-28       98:2007     50:1906     65:1987     36:1970
KFAT 04-29       96:1981     60:1951     65:1992     35:1970

KBFL 04-27       98:2004     60:1932     67:1965     34:1984
KBFL 04-28       97:2007     54:1906     66:1965     38:1999
KBFL 04-29      100:1981     61:1967     64:2007     40:1984
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 3 AM...STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS HAD INCREASED TO NEARLY 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PAST SUNRISE...PEAK MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AROUND
NOON. WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65
MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...THEN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

270900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK AFTER SUNRISE.
THESE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES
COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 3 AM...STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS HAD INCREASED TO NEARLY 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PAST SUNRISE...PEAK MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AROUND
NOON. WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65
MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...THEN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

270900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK AFTER SUNRISE.
THESE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES
COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 3 AM...STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS HAD INCREASED TO NEARLY 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PAST SUNRISE...PEAK MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AROUND
NOON. WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65
MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...THEN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

270900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK AFTER SUNRISE.
THESE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES
COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BRINGING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THROUGH 3 AM...STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS HAD INCREASED TO NEARLY 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PAST SUNRISE...PEAK MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AROUND
NOON. WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 65
MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INLAND WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...THEN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

270900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK AFTER SUNRISE.
THESE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LOCAL LLWS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES
COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM



000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FORM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST WILL EXPIRE AT 300 AM AND THE THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START UP AT 600 AM. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET AS THE SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRONG 850
MB WINDS WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN AND AUGMENT THE SFC GRADS. THIS WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER OF A WIND EVENT AND IT WILL BE DONE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LA MTNS SHOULD SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE OTHER BIG NEWS FOR THE DAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS 580 DM HGTS FROM AN EAST PAC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES TO DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE CSTS AND VLYS.

MUCH LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH LESS OFFSHORE FLOW AND
LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT. STILL IT WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM. HGTS
WILL BE FEW DM HIGHER AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SRN
CA. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THERE MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEAR THE BEACHES AS
THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.

NO WINDS AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE MB OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE MORNING AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HGTS WILL FALL SOME
AS WELL AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE GOOD SEA
BREEZES ARRIVING WITH NO DELAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER DULL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EACH
MORNING THU AND FRI AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT LOW CLOUD FORMATION ON
THU MORNING AND LIMIT IT ON FRIDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE DOWNWARD AS HGTS FALL.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS
ALONG WITH THE GENERAL TROFING PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE COAST INTO MANY OF THE
VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE DIURNAL MAX DOES NOT SEEM TOO STRONG SO
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY. THE MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WILL ACCELERATE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
FIRE...G
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSTO 270956
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
256 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge axis will shift east across the state and into the Great
Basin today into Tuesday. As heights continue to increase, expect
temperatures today to max out about 7-10 degrees warmer than
Sunday with some spots in the valley likely reaching the 90 degree
mark. Pressure gradient will relax some which should allow for
lighter northerly flow than Sunday, although winds will remain breezy
in some spots along the Sierra and western central Valley.

Weak trough will approach the coast on Tuesday and across the
Wednesday into early Thursday. As previously advertised, moisture
will be starved and any precip should remain removed to the north,
mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible effect of this trough
will be a few more clouds and more of an onshore flow. This should
allow for decent delta breeze to develop. Temperatures may cool a few
degrees but will remain much above normal for this time of year.
More noticeable cooling for areas directly impacted by delta
breeze though. Trough moves east Thursday with a return to high
temperatures near 90 in the valley and 60s-70s in the mountains.

CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

The general consensus in the extended period is for a weak upper
trough to remain over the region with a very weak closed low off
the coast of central California. If this solution pans out, warm
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The pattern
would favor a Delta Breeze, but would likely bring cooling only
to areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The pattern would also
be favorable for isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hours.
Northerly 10-20 kts with local gusts around 25 kts in the Central
Valley will be possible through about 00Z Tuesday. Over the
northern Sierra, local northeast wind gusts 25-35 kts possible
today, decreasing in the afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 270956
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
256 AM PDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and above normal temperatures
to the area through the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge axis will shift east across the state and into the Great
Basin today into Tuesday. As heights continue to increase, expect
temperatures today to max out about 7-10 degrees warmer than
Sunday with some spots in the valley likely reaching the 90 degree
mark. Pressure gradient will relax some which should allow for
lighter northerly flow than Sunday, although winds will remain breezy
in some spots along the Sierra and western central Valley.

Weak trough will approach the coast on Tuesday and across the
Wednesday into early Thursday. As previously advertised, moisture
will be starved and any precip should remain removed to the north,
mainly across Washington & Oregon. Tangible effect of this trough
will be a few more clouds and more of an onshore flow. This should
allow for decent delta breeze to develop. Temperatures may cool a few
degrees but will remain much above normal for this time of year.
More noticeable cooling for areas directly impacted by delta
breeze though. Trough moves east Thursday with a return to high
temperatures near 90 in the valley and 60s-70s in the mountains.

CEO

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

The general consensus in the extended period is for a weak upper
trough to remain over the region with a very weak closed low off
the coast of central California. If this solution pans out, warm
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The pattern
would favor a Delta Breeze, but would likely bring cooling only
to areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The pattern would also
be favorable for isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected across interior NorCal the next 24 hours.
Northerly 10-20 kts with local gusts around 25 kts in the Central
Valley will be possible through about 00Z Tuesday. Over the
northern Sierra, local northeast wind gusts 25-35 kts possible
today, decreasing in the afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 270947
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BREAK 80
DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST TODAY AND STARTS A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIVES TOWARD THE COAST OF THE PAC NW.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD DROP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING CAUSED BY THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

ALONG WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
NORTH...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT LEAVING
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH OF GERLACH IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO A GREAT DEAL OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AT
LEAST IN THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS...SO LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20

.LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE CA COAST THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY, WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS LIKELY TO SHOW UP NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST STARTING THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY, FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE ON
FRIDAY, THEN SPREADING A BIT NORTH AND EAST (BUT STILL MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50) FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BRUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE A FEW
CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
AND BEST INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY SETS UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL EAST FLOW
ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AT KCXP-KMMH WITH SUSTAINED WIND
AROUND 10 KT. WITH UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING ACROSS PACIFIC NW ON
TUESDAY, SFC FLOW WILL BECOME WEST WITH AFTN-EVE GUSTS AROUND 20
KT AT MOST TERMINALS.

VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY WITH ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY LOCAL FOG AT KTRK EARLY TUES AM AS RIDGE LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270947
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BREAK 80
DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST TODAY AND STARTS A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIVES TOWARD THE COAST OF THE PAC NW.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD DROP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING CAUSED BY THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

ALONG WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
NORTH...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT LEAVING
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH OF GERLACH IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO A GREAT DEAL OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AT
LEAST IN THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS...SO LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20

.LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE CA COAST THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY, WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS LIKELY TO SHOW UP NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST STARTING THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY, FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE ON
FRIDAY, THEN SPREADING A BIT NORTH AND EAST (BUT STILL MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50) FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BRUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE A FEW
CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
AND BEST INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY SETS UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL EAST FLOW
ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AT KCXP-KMMH WITH SUSTAINED WIND
AROUND 10 KT. WITH UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING ACROSS PACIFIC NW ON
TUESDAY, SFC FLOW WILL BECOME WEST WITH AFTN-EVE GUSTS AROUND 20
KT AT MOST TERMINALS.

VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY WITH ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY LOCAL FOG AT KTRK EARLY TUES AM AS RIDGE LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270947
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BREAK 80
DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST TODAY AND STARTS A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIVES TOWARD THE COAST OF THE PAC NW.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD DROP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING CAUSED BY THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

ALONG WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
NORTH...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT LEAVING
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH OF GERLACH IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO A GREAT DEAL OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AT
LEAST IN THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS...SO LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20

.LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE CA COAST THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY, WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS LIKELY TO SHOW UP NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST STARTING THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY, FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE ON
FRIDAY, THEN SPREADING A BIT NORTH AND EAST (BUT STILL MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50) FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BRUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE A FEW
CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
AND BEST INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY SETS UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL EAST FLOW
ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AT KCXP-KMMH WITH SUSTAINED WIND
AROUND 10 KT. WITH UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING ACROSS PACIFIC NW ON
TUESDAY, SFC FLOW WILL BECOME WEST WITH AFTN-EVE GUSTS AROUND 20
KT AT MOST TERMINALS.

VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY WITH ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY LOCAL FOG AT KTRK EARLY TUES AM AS RIDGE LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270947
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BREAK 80
DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST TODAY AND STARTS A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS RIDGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIVES TOWARD THE COAST OF THE PAC NW.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD DROP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES THERE...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING CAUSED BY THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

ALONG WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE
NORTH...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT LEAVING
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH OF GERLACH IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO A GREAT DEAL OF COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AT
LEAST IN THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS...SO LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20

.LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEKEND AS FLAT RIDGE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE CA COAST THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY, WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS LIKELY TO SHOW UP NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST STARTING THURSDAY.

FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY, FURTHER INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE ON
FRIDAY, THEN SPREADING A BIT NORTH AND EAST (BUT STILL MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50) FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BRUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY GENERATE A FEW
CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW
AND BEST INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY SETS UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL EAST FLOW
ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AT KCXP-KMMH WITH SUSTAINED WIND
AROUND 10 KT. WITH UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING ACROSS PACIFIC NW ON
TUESDAY, SFC FLOW WILL BECOME WEST WITH AFTN-EVE GUSTS AROUND 20
KT AT MOST TERMINALS.

VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU TUESDAY WITH ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY LOCAL FOG AT KTRK EARLY TUES AM AS RIDGE LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KPSR 270933
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KPHX AND
KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS CLOUDS THIN
CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT DECKS. MAY SEE A
BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA
6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER
19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 270933
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL REMAINING SHOWERS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS
SHOW RATHER MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH AREA DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE
TODAY AS WE STILL SEE INFLUENCE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
INCLUDING FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH
500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 580DM. STILL COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN GILA COUNTY AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE EVEN LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVERHEAD.
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
DESERTS...BEFORE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS OF 578-580DM MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM
NEAR 20C ON WEDNESDAY TO 23-24C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIDDLE 90S
ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK A POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF NOW...MODELS TAKE
THEIR TIME MOVING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
COOLING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 90S. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEVELOP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT MONDAY...SO WE MAY
AGAIN SEE CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KPHX AND
KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS CLOUDS THIN
CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT DECKS. MAY SEE A
BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA
6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER
19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 270608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 270608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 270608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 270608 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z...

AT 0535Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS SURFACE BASED AND WAS 1000
FEET DEEP WITH A TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF EIGHTEEN DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AND IN THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. FOR KBUR
AND KVNY 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN
WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION... SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS
12Z-22Z DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR 08Z-22Z LGT TO MDT
LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN
MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN
MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN
MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS AROUND 12 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN
MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 270527 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 270527 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 270527 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 270527 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/1000 PM

OUTER WATERS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT AS WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN ZONE 670 INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FOR ZONES 670 AND 676 TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PROBABLY THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS
IN ZONE 676 WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION.

INNER WATERS...
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FROM RINCON POINT TO POINT
MUGU AND OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. AS WELL AS A FROM POINT MUGU TO
MALIBU. EXPECT WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SHARPLY ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KSTO 270458
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week.
Above normal temperatures will rule with warmest temperatures on
Monday and slight cooling trend through the end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Increasing subsidence Mon and Tue will result in unseasonably warm
max temps over interior Norcal next couple of days as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Max temps are forecast to be
about 7 to 17 degrees above normal in the Valley on Mon...and about
6 to 14 degrees above normal on Tue. These anomalously warm
temps are a few-several degrees below record maxes for the next
couple of days at the Valley sites. A few high clouds will spill
over the ridge...otherwise skies will remain mostly clear.

Surface high pressure will increase over the Great Basin tonight and
some local gusty winds over the western slopes will likely develop.

The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures
will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping
off around 90 degrees. A lighter northerly flow will continue.
Mountains will generally warming into the 60s and 70s.

A through will approach the region on Tuesday and the ridge axis
will be moved to the east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley
will reverse direction and flow through the delta should become
stronger. Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough
will move over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is
moisture deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high
clouds Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look to
stay between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals on Wed.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

The general consensus in the extended period is for a very weak
upper trough to remain over the region. If this solution pans out,
warm temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The
pattern would favor a Delta Breeze to occur, but would likely
bring cooling only to areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The
upper trough could also bring isolated mountain showers, but not
enough confidence in timing and location to include them in the
forecast just yet.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC or FEW-SCT250 conditions expected over interior NorCal
through Mon. Northerly winds 5-15 kts overnite except over the
mountains...with local-isolated NE wind gusts up to 35 kt possible.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 270458
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week.
Above normal temperatures will rule with warmest temperatures on
Monday and slight cooling trend through the end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Increasing subsidence Mon and Tue will result in unseasonably warm
max temps over interior Norcal next couple of days as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Max temps are forecast to be
about 7 to 17 degrees above normal in the Valley on Mon...and about
6 to 14 degrees above normal on Tue. These anomalously warm
temps are a few-several degrees below record maxes for the next
couple of days at the Valley sites. A few high clouds will spill
over the ridge...otherwise skies will remain mostly clear.

Surface high pressure will increase over the Great Basin tonight and
some local gusty winds over the western slopes will likely develop.

The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures
will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping
off around 90 degrees. A lighter northerly flow will continue.
Mountains will generally warming into the 60s and 70s.

A through will approach the region on Tuesday and the ridge axis
will be moved to the east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley
will reverse direction and flow through the delta should become
stronger. Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough
will move over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is
moisture deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high
clouds Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look to
stay between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals on Wed.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

The general consensus in the extended period is for a very weak
upper trough to remain over the region. If this solution pans out,
warm temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The
pattern would favor a Delta Breeze to occur, but would likely
bring cooling only to areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The
upper trough could also bring isolated mountain showers, but not
enough confidence in timing and location to include them in the
forecast just yet.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC or FEW-SCT250 conditions expected over interior NorCal
through Mon. Northerly winds 5-15 kts overnite except over the
mountains...with local-isolated NE wind gusts up to 35 kt possible.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 270458
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.Synopsis...
High pressure brings dry conditions through at least mid week.
Above normal temperatures will rule with warmest temperatures on
Monday and slight cooling trend through the end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Increasing subsidence Mon and Tue will result in unseasonably warm
max temps over interior Norcal next couple of days as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region. Max temps are forecast to be
about 7 to 17 degrees above normal in the Valley on Mon...and about
6 to 14 degrees above normal on Tue. These anomalously warm
temps are a few-several degrees below record maxes for the next
couple of days at the Valley sites. A few high clouds will spill
over the ridge...otherwise skies will remain mostly clear.

Surface high pressure will increase over the Great Basin tonight and
some local gusty winds over the western slopes will likely develop.

The ridge will peak over the region on Monday and temperatures
will warm well into the 80s with some of the warmer spots topping
off around 90 degrees. A lighter northerly flow will continue.
Mountains will generally warming into the 60s and 70s.

A through will approach the region on Tuesday and the ridge axis
will be moved to the east over Nevada. Wind flow within the valley
will reverse direction and flow through the delta should become
stronger. Temperatures should start a cooling trend. The trough
will move over the interior on Wednesday but at this time it is
moisture deprived so no showers are expected. We may see some high
clouds Tuesday and Wednesday from this trough. Temperatures look to
stay between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals on Wed.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

The general consensus in the extended period is for a very weak
upper trough to remain over the region. If this solution pans out,
warm temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend. The
pattern would favor a Delta Breeze to occur, but would likely
bring cooling only to areas immediately adjacent to the Delta. The
upper trough could also bring isolated mountain showers, but not
enough confidence in timing and location to include them in the
forecast just yet.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC or FEW-SCT250 conditions expected over interior NorCal
through Mon. Northerly winds 5-15 kts overnite except over the
mountains...with local-isolated NE wind gusts up to 35 kt possible.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSGX 270419
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
919 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES OF
NEVADA AND UTAH WILL BRING A DRYING NORTHEAST WIND AND A WARMING
TREND MONDAY...AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD RETURN...WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP WITH THE LOS ANGELES TO
TONOPAH GRADIENT -5.6 MB AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH
THE GRADIENTS ARE STILL NEARLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE.
FORECAST GRADIENTS PEAK MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15 MB FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO SAN DIEGO. THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TARGET WITH OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH IN THE FAVORABLE PASSES AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE RISE COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS AS MUCH AS 13 DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT FURTHER
SUSTAINED WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERTS
TUESDAY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS...AND POSSIBLY A TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WEST SHOULD PULL IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME ASSOCIATED...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. IN A NUTSHELL...COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

270330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY.

MTNS...COASTAL SLOPES LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS ABV 3000 FT THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
FOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING MDT TO
STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. KRAL AND KONT COULD
BE IMPACTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 270419
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
919 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES OF
NEVADA AND UTAH WILL BRING A DRYING NORTHEAST WIND AND A WARMING
TREND MONDAY...AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD RETURN...WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP WITH THE LOS ANGELES TO
TONOPAH GRADIENT -5.6 MB AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH
THE GRADIENTS ARE STILL NEARLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE.
FORECAST GRADIENTS PEAK MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15 MB FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO SAN DIEGO. THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TARGET WITH OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH IN THE FAVORABLE PASSES AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE RISE COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS AS MUCH AS 13 DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT FURTHER
SUSTAINED WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERTS
TUESDAY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS...AND POSSIBLY A TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WEST SHOULD PULL IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME ASSOCIATED...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. IN A NUTSHELL...COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

270330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY.

MTNS...COASTAL SLOPES LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS ABV 3000 FT THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
FOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING MDT TO
STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. KRAL AND KONT COULD
BE IMPACTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 270419
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
919 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES OF
NEVADA AND UTAH WILL BRING A DRYING NORTHEAST WIND AND A WARMING
TREND MONDAY...AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD RETURN...WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP WITH THE LOS ANGELES TO
TONOPAH GRADIENT -5.6 MB AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH
THE GRADIENTS ARE STILL NEARLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE.
FORECAST GRADIENTS PEAK MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15 MB FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO SAN DIEGO. THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TARGET WITH OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH IN THE FAVORABLE PASSES AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE RISE COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS AS MUCH AS 13 DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT FURTHER
SUSTAINED WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERTS
TUESDAY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS...AND POSSIBLY A TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WEST SHOULD PULL IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME ASSOCIATED...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. IN A NUTSHELL...COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

270330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY.

MTNS...COASTAL SLOPES LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS ABV 3000 FT THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
FOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING MDT TO
STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. KRAL AND KONT COULD
BE IMPACTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KSGX 270419
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
919 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES OF
NEVADA AND UTAH WILL BRING A DRYING NORTHEAST WIND AND A WARMING
TREND MONDAY...AND CONTINUED QUITE WARM THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK THE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD RETURN...WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP WITH THE LOS ANGELES TO
TONOPAH GRADIENT -5.6 MB AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH
THE GRADIENTS ARE STILL NEARLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE.
FORECAST GRADIENTS PEAK MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15 MB FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO SAN DIEGO. THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS ON TARGET WITH OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH IN THE FAVORABLE PASSES AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE RISE COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS AS MUCH AS 13 DEGREES WARMER. EXPECT FURTHER
SUSTAINED WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND HIGH DESERTS
TUESDAY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS...AND POSSIBLY A TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WEST SHOULD PULL IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME ASSOCIATED...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. IN A NUTSHELL...COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

270330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-4000 FT MSL
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MONDAY.

MTNS...COASTAL SLOPES LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS ABV 3000 FT THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
FOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING MDT TO
STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. KRAL AND KONT COULD
BE IMPACTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...PG




000
FXUS66 KMTR 270408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE WITH A
MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:02 PM PDT SUNDAY...IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET
EVENING WEATHER-WISE AFTER A DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. 8 PM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE BACK WITH READINGS
NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAREST THE BAY TO
THE 60S INLAND.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEVADA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAY-TIME WARMTH WILL
PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY W-NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
HELPING TO START A COOLING TREND THAT`LL LIKELY CARRY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF COOLING WILL BE FIRST LOCATED AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR THE BAY WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COOLING
WILL BE RELATIVE HOWEVER SINCE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAILY
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY. A WEAK OPEN WAVE 500 MB
HEIGHT TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER THE EPAC AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK. A SEPARATE COLDER TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER UPSTREAM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD BY THE JET
STREAM AND REACH THE PACIFIC NW AND NORCAL BY EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASN`T NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 270346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE RAPIDLY
THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION
POPULATION CENTERS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER
FAR SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUED TO
SLUGGISHLY MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...IN WAVES...ROTATED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX EASTWARD. RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS WAS
NOT EXCESSIVE HOWEVER AS MOST LOCATIONS PICKED UP LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DEBRIS TYPE CLOUD WAS
LEFT BEHIND FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.

GUSTY NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS THAT DEVELOPED FROM THE SHOWERS
HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS WELL AS OF 8 PM AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT. 00Z PLOTS INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES AROUND
70M ACROSS ARIZONA...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW TRANSLATING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MID CLOUD MAY STILL PERSIST. FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS...CIRCULATION CENTER...AND COLD CORE
ALOFT HAS TRANSLATED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED ELONGATED LOBE OF PV HAS BEEN FILLING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE...AND DELINEATING A SHARP MIDTROPOSPHERIC FRONT AND AREAS OF
ASCENT/DESCENT THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY WING
OF VORTICITY HAS ROTATED BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE COLD CORE ACTING
UPON LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND FORCING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITHIN THE COLD CORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REGION. WHILE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO)...AMPLE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY.

HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGING AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MORE INTENSE SPRING INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FALL UNDER STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE
TO 573-579DM YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

STRONG RIDGING WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM WILL FOLD OVER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME THIN
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FULL INSOLATION AND MIXING DEPTHS AOA 600MB. WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE +25C LEVEL...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH (OR
EXCEEDING) THE 100F THRESHOLD WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS IS WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS AND NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH THE AVERAGE FIRST 100F DAY IN PHOENIX OCCURRING ON MAY
2ND...AND IN YUMA APRIL 23RD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...HELPING EDGE THE CORE OF THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST HAD MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED BREEZY WEST WINDS NEVER
REALLY MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
KPHX AND KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS
CLOUDS THIN CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT
DECKS. MAY SEE A BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BASES MOSTLY AOA 6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 270346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE RAPIDLY
THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION
POPULATION CENTERS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER
FAR SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUED TO
SLUGGISHLY MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...IN WAVES...ROTATED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX EASTWARD. RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS WAS
NOT EXCESSIVE HOWEVER AS MOST LOCATIONS PICKED UP LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DEBRIS TYPE CLOUD WAS
LEFT BEHIND FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.

GUSTY NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS THAT DEVELOPED FROM THE SHOWERS
HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS WELL AS OF 8 PM AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT. 00Z PLOTS INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES AROUND
70M ACROSS ARIZONA...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW TRANSLATING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MID CLOUD MAY STILL PERSIST. FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS...CIRCULATION CENTER...AND COLD CORE
ALOFT HAS TRANSLATED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED ELONGATED LOBE OF PV HAS BEEN FILLING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE...AND DELINEATING A SHARP MIDTROPOSPHERIC FRONT AND AREAS OF
ASCENT/DESCENT THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY WING
OF VORTICITY HAS ROTATED BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE COLD CORE ACTING
UPON LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND FORCING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITHIN THE COLD CORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REGION. WHILE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO)...AMPLE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY.

HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGING AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MORE INTENSE SPRING INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FALL UNDER STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE
TO 573-579DM YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

STRONG RIDGING WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM WILL FOLD OVER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME THIN
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FULL INSOLATION AND MIXING DEPTHS AOA 600MB. WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE +25C LEVEL...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH (OR
EXCEEDING) THE 100F THRESHOLD WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS IS WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS AND NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH THE AVERAGE FIRST 100F DAY IN PHOENIX OCCURRING ON MAY
2ND...AND IN YUMA APRIL 23RD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...HELPING EDGE THE CORE OF THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST HAD MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED BREEZY WEST WINDS NEVER
REALLY MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
KPHX AND KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS
CLOUDS THIN CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT
DECKS. MAY SEE A BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BASES MOSTLY AOA 6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 270346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE RAPIDLY
THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION
POPULATION CENTERS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER
FAR SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUED TO
SLUGGISHLY MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...IN WAVES...ROTATED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX EASTWARD. RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS WAS
NOT EXCESSIVE HOWEVER AS MOST LOCATIONS PICKED UP LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DEBRIS TYPE CLOUD WAS
LEFT BEHIND FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.

GUSTY NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS THAT DEVELOPED FROM THE SHOWERS
HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS WELL AS OF 8 PM AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT. 00Z PLOTS INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES AROUND
70M ACROSS ARIZONA...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW TRANSLATING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MID CLOUD MAY STILL PERSIST. FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS...CIRCULATION CENTER...AND COLD CORE
ALOFT HAS TRANSLATED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED ELONGATED LOBE OF PV HAS BEEN FILLING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE...AND DELINEATING A SHARP MIDTROPOSPHERIC FRONT AND AREAS OF
ASCENT/DESCENT THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY WING
OF VORTICITY HAS ROTATED BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE COLD CORE ACTING
UPON LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND FORCING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITHIN THE COLD CORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REGION. WHILE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO)...AMPLE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY.

HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGING AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MORE INTENSE SPRING INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FALL UNDER STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE
TO 573-579DM YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

STRONG RIDGING WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM WILL FOLD OVER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME THIN
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FULL INSOLATION AND MIXING DEPTHS AOA 600MB. WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE +25C LEVEL...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH (OR
EXCEEDING) THE 100F THRESHOLD WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS IS WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS AND NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH THE AVERAGE FIRST 100F DAY IN PHOENIX OCCURRING ON MAY
2ND...AND IN YUMA APRIL 23RD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...HELPING EDGE THE CORE OF THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST HAD MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED BREEZY WEST WINDS NEVER
REALLY MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
KPHX AND KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS
CLOUDS THIN CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT
DECKS. MAY SEE A BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BASES MOSTLY AOA 6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 270346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE RAPIDLY
THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION
POPULATION CENTERS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER
FAR SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUED TO
SLUGGISHLY MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...IN WAVES...ROTATED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
DESERTS FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX EASTWARD. RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS WAS
NOT EXCESSIVE HOWEVER AS MOST LOCATIONS PICKED UP LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL DEBRIS TYPE CLOUD WAS
LEFT BEHIND FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.

GUSTY NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS THAT DEVELOPED FROM THE SHOWERS
HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS WELL AS OF 8 PM AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT. 00Z PLOTS INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES AROUND
70M ACROSS ARIZONA...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW TRANSLATING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WE
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MID CLOUD MAY STILL PERSIST. FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED TROUGH AXIS...CIRCULATION CENTER...AND COLD CORE
ALOFT HAS TRANSLATED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED ELONGATED LOBE OF PV HAS BEEN FILLING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE...AND DELINEATING A SHARP MIDTROPOSPHERIC FRONT AND AREAS OF
ASCENT/DESCENT THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY WING
OF VORTICITY HAS ROTATED BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE COLD CORE ACTING
UPON LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...AND FORCING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITHIN THE COLD CORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REGION. WHILE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT FURTHER CONVECTIVE GROWTH (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO)...AMPLE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY.

HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGING AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES COINCIDENT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MORE INTENSE SPRING INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT
MORE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
FALL UNDER STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE
TO 573-579DM YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN TODAY.

STRONG RIDGING WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM WILL FOLD OVER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE SOME THIN
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
FULL INSOLATION AND MIXING DEPTHS AOA 600MB. WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE +25C LEVEL...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH (OR
EXCEEDING) THE 100F THRESHOLD WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS IS WELL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS AND NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH THE AVERAGE FIRST 100F DAY IN PHOENIX OCCURRING ON MAY
2ND...AND IN YUMA APRIL 23RD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...HELPING EDGE THE CORE OF THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SWRN CONUS...AND ONLY A
SLIGHT COOLING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AT 8 PM RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST HAD MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED BREEZY WEST WINDS NEVER
REALLY MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AND THEIR ASSOCIATED NORTH TO EAST OUTFLOW WINDS. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT
KPHX AND KIWA...AND WILL STAY RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KSDL. AS
CLOUDS THIN CIGS IN THE 8-10K FEET RANGE WILL CHANGE TO FEW-SCT
DECKS. MAY SEE A BIT OF REPEAT CUMULUS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BASES MOSTLY AOA 6K FEET...BUT CIGS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCY ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT KIPL THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO
MONDAY...THEN RETURNING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH LESS THAN 15KT. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WE MAY SEE A LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY JET DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DOWN THE CO RIVER. AS
SUCH...ADDED A LLWS GROUP AT KBLH FROM 09Z THRU 14Z. OTHERWISE DO
NOT EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH WINDS
AOB 15KT. SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/NOLTE



000
FXUS66 KLOX 270307 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270307 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 270307 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 270307 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270306 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270306 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270306 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270306 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)EVENING UPDATE...

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...FROM COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN SOME
AREAS...TO BEAUTIFUL MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WERE UP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BURBANK AND VAN NUYS JUMPED UP TO 80
DEGREES FROM A 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY. TODAY WAS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF WHAT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS
AHEAD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
BROUGHT SOME SEVERE WX TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LVL 587 DM HIGH HAS SET UP ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES
WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY
TILTED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.(THE TYPICAL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THIS YEAR SO
FAR). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PAC BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NEVADA
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE GRADIENTS TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A
MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TO THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS EVENING ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN SCV.

LATEST 00Z NAM-/WRF CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS 850 MB WINDS SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF 50 KT WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS REACHING 60+ GUSTS...THIS WILL REMAIN A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY
FOR MOST AREAS AFFECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INLAND.
HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS UP
ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. WARMEST
COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MOST ALL LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. EXPECT SOME WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL
AS OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING
FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT GOES AWAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM INLAND...IN FACT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME
VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT THE COAST SHOULD SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BEFORE NOON ON TUESDAY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING INLAND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/DG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 262341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASNT NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 262341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK ONSHORE
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS A SUNNY AND PLEASANT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
6-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS BUILDING WITH 4.5 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND NOW 1 MB OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME COASTAL CLOUDS ALONG THE
SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY COASTLINE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NORTH WINDS IN THE HILLS...TURNING
OFFSHORE OR NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH THE WARMEST INLAND
SPOTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 70S AND LOWER 80S AROUND THE BAY WITH COMFORTABLE 60S
AT THE COAST.

AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NOTED COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN INLAND WITH
AN EARLY AND STRONG SEABREEZE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER
OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THAT FEATURE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND ZONAL WITH
PERHAPS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END
RESULT ON THE SURFACE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WERE GETTING DEEP INTO THE SHOULDER SEASONS NOW WHEN STORMS ARE
RARE BUT THE SUMMER MARINE LAYER HASNT NECESSARILY BECOME
ENTRENCHED.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE 240 HOUR ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE REGION WITH THE 10-16 DAY GFS RUNS KEEPING THE
PATTERN CYCLONIC WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NO BIG RIDGES OR
WARM SPELLS IN SIGHT...JUST SEASONABLE AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LOCALLY OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 22 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:32 PM PDT SUNDAY...AN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 5 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 262259 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW...ALL SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING..GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE WITH LGT
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA AS WELL AS LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE IN THE
VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KOXR AS WELL AS
KWJF/KPMD. FOR KBUR/KVNY...LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY
08Z-22Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LGT LLWS 12Z-22Z DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU
THE TAF PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY 08Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

IT IS LIKELY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST 0-10 NM SLO COUNTY AS WELL
AS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN TO SAN PEDRO BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. STEEP COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE BASINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM THE VICINITY OF SAN MIGUEL ISLAND TO PIEDRAS BLANCAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND WAS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SOUTH AMERICA AS THE
WIND FETCH AREA IS ORIENTED WEST-EAST BUT A SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...26/1015 AM
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR
THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SURGE OF WINDS IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 10 AM ON MONDAY...WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR. FOR THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER INTO THE TEENS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...WITH WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS
WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG WARNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...GOMBERG

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 262259 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AS A LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COMBINED WITH WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY IN WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS INCLUDE THE
SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND SBA SOUTH COAST...WITH MONTECITO HILLS
LIKELY HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS THEN DESCENDING INTO THE VALLEYS
AND COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PROJECTED
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -3.5 TO -4 MB BY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NOW PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
KNOTS ACROSS TYPICAL WIND CORRIDORS IN LA COUNTY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL
GENERALLY SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS.
WARMEST COASTAL/VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPPER LEVEL OFFSHORE WIND SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN
FACT...SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER ON TUESDAY AS
COMPARED TO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL DURING EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE. INITIALLY...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD
INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2300Z...

AT 2226Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 2300 FEET.