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000
FXUS66 KSGX 191542
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
842 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.
THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY BRING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERCAST-TO-BROKEN CLOUDS DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS...AND
EVEN INTO THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO/BANNING PASS. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING
A RATHER THICK CLOUD LAYER RESULTING IN SOME DRIZZLE. IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...THE CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT THIN WITH SOME BREAKS IN
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
IS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
CLEARING TODAY DUE TO THE WEAK INVERSION AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A POSITION
JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEAKING OF WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 2.9
MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 4.8 MB AT THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
THUS...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 20S TO 30S...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH
FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS. HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY
FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING
SLIGHT WARMING THAT DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY
BE BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191513Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BTWN
1500 AND 3400 FT AND TOPS 3500-4000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BKN WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS AFT 17Z THROUGH 19Z. AREAS ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES MAY BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND
AGAIN AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT AND
TOPS AROUND 3000 FT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OBSCURED BELOW 4500 FT
THROUGH 20Z...THEN CIGS WILL BECOME SCT-LOCALLY BKN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOVE 4000 FT AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
FROM 235 AM DISCUSSION...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER TODAY. LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
BEACHES...SS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 191542
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
842 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.
THEN...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY BRING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERCAST-TO-BROKEN CLOUDS DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS...AND
EVEN INTO THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO/BANNING PASS. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING
A RATHER THICK CLOUD LAYER RESULTING IN SOME DRIZZLE. IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...THE CLOUD LAYER IS SOMEWHAT THIN WITH SOME BREAKS IN
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 3500 FEET...AND RECENT PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE REACHED 4000 FEET. THUS...THE MARINE LAYER
IS AROUND 4000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
CLEARING TODAY DUE TO THE WEAK INVERSION AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL...AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW WILL SPLIT OUT OF IT...AND ASSUME A POSITION
JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION LATE TONIGHT. WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY...THE STRATUS MAY COME IN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...BUT IT SHOULD FILL INTO THE FAR INLAND
VALLEYS AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPEAKING OF WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 2.9
MB...WHEREAS THEY WERE 4.8 MB AT THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO.
THUS...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH MAINLY GUSS IN THE 20S TO 30S...SO THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTH
FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY DRAW UP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS. HOWEVER...IT IS A PRETTY SLIM CHANCE...AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THE NAM12 IS PARTICULARLY DRY
FOR OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME SMALL RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BRING
SLIGHT WARMING THAT DAY...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL STILL MOSTLY
BE BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE VALLEYS.

A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AS WELL...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND MAYBE
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND...WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW. RIGHT NOW...MODELS DO NOT SHOW US GETTING
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
191513Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MARINE STRATUS WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BTWN
1500 AND 3400 FT AND TOPS 3500-4000 FT MSL WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BKN WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS AFT 17Z THROUGH 19Z. AREAS ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE COASTAL SLOPES MAY BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL REFORM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD RAPIDLY INLAND
AGAIN AFT 00Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT AND
TOPS AROUND 3000 FT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OBSCURED BELOW 4500 FT
THROUGH 20Z...THEN CIGS WILL BECOME SCT-LOCALLY BKN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ABOVE 4000 FT AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND VIS UNRESTRICTED THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
FROM 235 AM DISCUSSION...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER TODAY. LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES ALONG WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
BEACHES...SS





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 191541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S...AND EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE COAST TO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SIMILAR VALUES.
CLOUD COVER REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BASES 8-10K
FT AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z PSR SOUNDING...A VERY MOIST LAYER AND
COLUMN WITH OVER 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK WIND
PROFILE. NOTABLE BOUNDARY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FOUR-CORNERS AREA...WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND MOSTLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN AS DEPICTED IN LOCAL HIGH-RES MODEL FORECASTS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z
WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A
JETLET...AHEAD OF A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF
NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN
STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND
FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S...AND EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE COAST TO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SIMILAR VALUES.
CLOUD COVER REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BASES 8-10K
FT AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z PSR SOUNDING...A VERY MOIST LAYER AND
COLUMN WITH OVER 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK WIND
PROFILE. NOTABLE BOUNDARY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FOUR-CORNERS AREA...WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND MOSTLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN AS DEPICTED IN LOCAL HIGH-RES MODEL FORECASTS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z
WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A
JETLET...AHEAD OF A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF
NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN
STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND
FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 191206
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 AM PDT FRIDAY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS OTHER AREA TERMINALS. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-17Z
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A
MODERATE SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
16Z-17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BETWEEN 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191206
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 AM PDT FRIDAY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS OTHER AREA TERMINALS. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-17Z
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A
MODERATE SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
16Z-17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BETWEEN 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191206
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 AM PDT FRIDAY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS OTHER AREA TERMINALS. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-17Z
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A
MODERATE SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
16Z-17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BETWEEN 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191206
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
506 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 AM PDT FRIDAY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY WHILE IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS OTHER AREA TERMINALS. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 16Z-17Z
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A
MODERATE SEABREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BETWEEN
16Z-17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BETWEEN 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 191142 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...19/1145Z.
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH VERY WEAK INVERSION. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER. EXPECT
WDSPRD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS AGAIN TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...19/300 AM
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACRS
WRN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 191142 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...19/1145Z.
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH VERY WEAK INVERSION. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER. EXPECT
WDSPRD STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS AGAIN TONIGHT/SAT MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...19/300 AM
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACRS
WRN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 191134
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
434 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridging over the west coast will bring warmer temperatures through
the weekend with daytime highs near to several degrees above
normal. Today and Saturday will be the warmest days in the seven
day forecast as valley highs range upper 80s to upper
90s...mountain highs ranging in the 70s and 80s. A closed low will
linger to the south of our region bringing the possibility of
showers/thunderstorms over the Sierra today into Sunday. By
Monday, that closed low will exit eastward as a stronger offshore
low approaches the west coast. Dry weather with gradual cooling is
forecast for Monday and Tuesday as daytime highs are near to
slightly above normal.

Smoke from the King Fire will continue to impact the region today
and tomorrow over portions of the Sierra including the adjacent
foothills. Smoke could sink into the valley (mostly along the
extreme eastern edge of the Southern Sacramento and San Joaquin
valleys) after today when the winds shift.   JBB


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models in good agreement that a stronger trough will impact the
region in the extended forecast. Tuesday should remain dry but
temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as the trough
approaches. By Wednesday, temperatures will drop well below
normal, especially over higher terrain. In addition, the chance
for showers will start impacting the NorCal coastline by early
Wednesday. Showers should spread over the Coastal range into the
Sacramento valley late Wednesday morning. The chance of showers
will continue to spread eastward and southward encompassing the
majority of our CWA Thursday and Friday as cooler temperatures
persist.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. Isolated Sierra
crest thunderstorms south of Tahoe. Winds mainly north to east
generally below 15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 191134
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
434 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Synopsis...
Lingering Sierra showers/t-storms are possible through the
weekend, otherwise, dry & warmer temperatures into early next
week. Cooler and wetter weather arrives middle of next week into
next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridging over the west coast will bring warmer temperatures through
the weekend with daytime highs near to several degrees above
normal. Today and Saturday will be the warmest days in the seven
day forecast as valley highs range upper 80s to upper
90s...mountain highs ranging in the 70s and 80s. A closed low will
linger to the south of our region bringing the possibility of
showers/thunderstorms over the Sierra today into Sunday. By
Monday, that closed low will exit eastward as a stronger offshore
low approaches the west coast. Dry weather with gradual cooling is
forecast for Monday and Tuesday as daytime highs are near to
slightly above normal.

Smoke from the King Fire will continue to impact the region today
and tomorrow over portions of the Sierra including the adjacent
foothills. Smoke could sink into the valley (mostly along the
extreme eastern edge of the Southern Sacramento and San Joaquin
valleys) after today when the winds shift.   JBB


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models in good agreement that a stronger trough will impact the
region in the extended forecast. Tuesday should remain dry but
temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as the trough
approaches. By Wednesday, temperatures will drop well below
normal, especially over higher terrain. In addition, the chance
for showers will start impacting the NorCal coastline by early
Wednesday. Showers should spread over the Coastal range into the
Sacramento valley late Wednesday morning. The chance of showers
will continue to spread eastward and southward encompassing the
majority of our CWA Thursday and Friday as cooler temperatures
persist.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours all TAF sites. Isolated Sierra
crest thunderstorms south of Tahoe. Winds mainly north to east
generally below 15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191111
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DIDNT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z WHICH
HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A JETLET...AHEAD OF
A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN
MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF
BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE.
HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO
DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191111
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DIDNT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z WHICH
HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A JETLET...AHEAD OF
A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN
MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF
BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE.
HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO
DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 191102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY
CLOSED UPPER JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH
EJECTS EAST OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY THEN PARK OFFSHORE OF SOCAL. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COAST ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT TODAY OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA AS THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST MIDWEEK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIP TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.

A MODEST ONSHORE REMAINS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND WILL TREND LOWER LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES COOLED
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS
TODAY. A SLIGHT WARMUP IS IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISING
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 191102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY
CLOSED UPPER JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH
EJECTS EAST OVER THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY THEN PARK OFFSHORE OF SOCAL. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE COAST ON
SATURDAY THEN ACCELERATING OVER NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
BUT DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT TODAY OVER THE FRAZIER PARK AREA AS THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST MIDWEEK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIP TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.

A MODEST ONSHORE REMAINS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND WILL TREND LOWER LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES COOLED
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS YESTERDAY AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS
TODAY. A SLIGHT WARMUP IS IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RISING
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR IF NOT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978
KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968

KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 191052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTAL STRIP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FAIRLY DEEP PENETRATION OF THE MARINE LATER TOOK PLACE LATE
THURSDAY AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS DECKS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND INLAND EMPIRE. UNSEASONABLY
DEEP MARINE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE ATTM. AS THE GRADIENTS SLOWLY
LAX THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE LEVELS. ANOTHER EAST PAC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP MARINE
LATER INTRUSION AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
190930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1800-2300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 3000 FT WILL FILL IN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRATUS CLEARING 15-18Z...MOVING BACK INTO THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS 20/00-03Z AND SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR BASES/TOPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








000
FXUS66 KMTR 191041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY
HUMID THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER THEN MVFR IS FORECAST BEGINNING
08Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DECIDED TO FORECAST TEMPO IFR CIG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG (MIST) BRIEFLY FRI MORNING 10Z-14Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS REPORTED NOW TRANSITIONING
TO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 12Z-16Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BEGINNING 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY
HUMID THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER THEN MVFR IS FORECAST BEGINNING
08Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DECIDED TO FORECAST TEMPO IFR CIG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG (MIST) BRIEFLY FRI MORNING 10Z-14Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS REPORTED NOW TRANSITIONING
TO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 12Z-16Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BEGINNING 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY
HUMID THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER THEN MVFR IS FORECAST BEGINNING
08Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DECIDED TO FORECAST TEMPO IFR CIG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG (MIST) BRIEFLY FRI MORNING 10Z-14Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS REPORTED NOW TRANSITIONING
TO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 12Z-16Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BEGINNING 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 191041
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY
HAS NOW WEAKENED AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD OF OUR AREA. THE
RESIDUAL MILD AND AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER.
BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN BEGINNING AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE DISTRICT AND RENEW RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAIL DISTRICTWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER...AND THUS ALMOST HINTS OF A BIT
OF TROPICAL FEELING TO THE WEATHER. THIS REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF
THE STILL REMARKABLY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND THE RESIDUAL MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY/S PRECIPITATION IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION AND PROGRESSING
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN OVER THE
COAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THE NET RESULT WILL BE MILD TO WARM AND A BIT MUGGY
DAYS...AND MILD NIGHTS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
EXTENDING INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LOCAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
COASTAL DRIZZLE...HAVE NOTED THAT LATEST NAM MODEL OUTPUT DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ROTATING
THROUGH OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TIMES...AND ALSO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPING OVER OUR FAR INLAND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AND SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUSTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...BUT IN JUST NOW LOOKING AT THIS A
BIT MORE CLOSELY...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. AND ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER
TODAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOR NOW ONLY ADDED IN POPS OF 10 AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AREA...DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD BASIC AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL THEN BE
WEAKENING...AT PRESENTLY APPEARS IT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO RENEW RAIN CHANCES FOR US...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY
HUMID THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER THEN MVFR IS FORECAST BEGINNING
08Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DECIDED TO FORECAST TEMPO IFR CIG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG (MIST) BRIEFLY FRI MORNING 10Z-14Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS REPORTED NOW TRANSITIONING
TO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 12Z-16Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BEGINNING 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND
STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 191034
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
334 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS MOVES UP THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CUTTING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING.
SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN REPORTING FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM
12C THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 22C THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S IN INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12
INDICATES SOME EASTERLY RIDGETOP GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE WIND FORECAST
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREA RIDGES. RH RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
POORER OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME RAPIDLY DRYING FUELS. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CRITERIA...SO FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS WILL NOT BE ISSUED
FOR THIS POTENTIAL OFFSHORE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND EVENT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
TRINITY COUNTY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE
(15 PERCENT) WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES EAST. A RATHER STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 980 MB
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE OREGON COAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SLIDING A BAND OF
RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION. SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS STRONGLY FORCED FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY EVEN ALLOW A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUS
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WEATHER MODELS CAN HAVE
SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN THE TRANSITION SEASONS (SPRING AND FALL)...SO
TRENDS IN THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS HAS BEEN PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDS AT THE COASTAL AIR TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE LAYER QUITE SHALLOW EXPECT IT WILL BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE FINALLY WINS OUT.
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT NORTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD LIMIT
REDEVELOPMENT. WINDS STAY LIGHT AND SOME PATCHES MAY STILL FORM IF
THE EAST WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. FARTHER INLAND AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID
MORNING AS WELL. INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
UNDER A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ADVECT
STRATUS ONTO THE MENDO COAST BY MID MORNING SAT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PZZ470. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN ON SAT...BUT SEAS MAY STAY UP THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL GO SOUTHERLY ON SAT AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO
OREGON WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 191034
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
334 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS MOVES UP THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CUTTING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING.
SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN REPORTING FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT LEAVING SUNNY SKIES
FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM
12C THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 22C THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S IN INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12
INDICATES SOME EASTERLY RIDGETOP GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE WIND FORECAST
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREA RIDGES. RH RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
POORER OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME RAPIDLY DRYING FUELS. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO RED
FLAG CRITERIA...SO FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS WILL NOT BE ISSUED
FOR THIS POTENTIAL OFFSHORE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND EVENT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE EAST
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
TRINITY COUNTY. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE
(15 PERCENT) WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND MOVES EAST. A RATHER STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 980 MB
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE OREGON COAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SLIDING A BAND OF
RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION. SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS STRONGLY FORCED FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY EVEN ALLOW A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUS
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WEATHER MODELS CAN HAVE
SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN THE TRANSITION SEASONS (SPRING AND FALL)...SO
TRENDS IN THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS HAS BEEN PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDS AT THE COASTAL AIR TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE LAYER QUITE SHALLOW EXPECT IT WILL BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE FINALLY WINS OUT.
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT NORTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD LIMIT
REDEVELOPMENT. WINDS STAY LIGHT AND SOME PATCHES MAY STILL FORM IF
THE EAST WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. FARTHER INLAND AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID
MORNING AS WELL. INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
UNDER A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ADVECT
STRATUS ONTO THE MENDO COAST BY MID MORNING SAT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PZZ470. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN ON SAT...BUT SEAS MAY STAY UP THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL GO SOUTHERLY ON SAT AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO
OREGON WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 191031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...19/300 AM
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACRS
WRN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 191031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...19/300 AM
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS THRU LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACRS
WRN SECTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 191012
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS EAST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS BY
MIDWEEK, THEN A COOLING TREND AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV OVERNIGHT, WHILE BRIEF
SHOWERS ALSO POPPED UP IN THE TAHOE BASIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CA TO CENTRAL NV APPEARS TO BE KEEPING THIS
ACTIVITY GOING, BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PREVAILING EAST FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.
LEFTOVER SMOKE AND HAZE AROUND TRUCKEE AND IN SOME WESTERN NV
VALLEYS MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD SHOULD DISPERSE THIS
MORNING AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE. THE EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE
OUT OF THE REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE LATE IN THE DAY
MAINLY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
EAST OF THE CREST AGAIN DEPENDS ON HOW ACTIVE THE KING FIRE IS
BURNING ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMOKE EAST
OF THE SIERRA CREST ON SUNDAY. IF ANY SMOKE DOES MAKE IT OVER, IT
WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH LESS CONCENTRATED COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

OTHER THAN THE MORNING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY IS SLIM AS MAIN UPPER LOW SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CREST SOUTH OF TAHOE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE WEST OF THE CREST BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY DUSK.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO EJECT INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY, THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
SATURDAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN
SHIFTS TO WEST CENTRAL NV SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THIS RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL
PRELIMINARY, AS SOME GUIDANCE SPREADS QPF FARTHER WEST ACROSS
RENO-TAHOE AND EVEN NORTHEAST CA, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES
FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
90 DEGREE TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER 80S IN WESTERN NV AND 70S FOR
MOST SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN NOW, WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH.

FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY, LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW AND WEAK RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SW BREEZES WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THEN THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND WETTER, WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND SHOWS A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS TO BE WINDY WEDNESDAY
AS H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OR MORE WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT.
INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT
HERE. MOVING INTO THURSDAY, THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE BETWEEN THE MODELS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS AS OF THIS WRITING. STILL, MY GUT
IS TELLING ME THE EC WILL END UP BEING MORE CORRECT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE WITH THE SPLITTING SOLUTION.

CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SPREADING TO ALL AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THURSDAY. WARMED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A PORTOLA
TO GERLACH LINE WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONTINUED THE SHARP COOLDOWN FOR THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY END UP BEING
WARMER THAN WE HAVE ADVERTISED IF THE EC AND SPLITTING SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR HIGHWAY 95 THIS MORNING
NORTH OF YERINGTON, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY 16Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME
FOG AND HAZE NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z
WITH THE EAST WINDS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.

STILL EXPECT EAST WINDS SATURDAY TO KEEP KING FIRE SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO CREEP
NORTHWARD. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 191012
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS EAST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SIERRA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS BY
MIDWEEK, THEN A COOLING TREND AND POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV OVERNIGHT, WHILE BRIEF
SHOWERS ALSO POPPED UP IN THE TAHOE BASIN. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CA TO CENTRAL NV APPEARS TO BE KEEPING THIS
ACTIVITY GOING, BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PREVAILING EAST FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST.
LEFTOVER SMOKE AND HAZE AROUND TRUCKEE AND IN SOME WESTERN NV
VALLEYS MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD SHOULD DISPERSE THIS
MORNING AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE. THE EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE
OUT OF THE REGION AGAIN SATURDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE LATE IN THE DAY
MAINLY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE
EAST OF THE CREST AGAIN DEPENDS ON HOW ACTIVE THE KING FIRE IS
BURNING ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMOKE EAST
OF THE SIERRA CREST ON SUNDAY. IF ANY SMOKE DOES MAKE IT OVER, IT
WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH LESS CONCENTRATED COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

OTHER THAN THE MORNING CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY IS SLIM AS MAIN UPPER LOW SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CREST SOUTH OF TAHOE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE WEST OF THE CREST BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY DUSK.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO EJECT INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SATURDAY, THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
SATURDAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN
SHIFTS TO WEST CENTRAL NV SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THIS RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL
PRELIMINARY, AS SOME GUIDANCE SPREADS QPF FARTHER WEST ACROSS
RENO-TAHOE AND EVEN NORTHEAST CA, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES
FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU SATURDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
90 DEGREE TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY, THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER 80S IN WESTERN NV AND 70S FOR
MOST SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THEN THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN NOW, WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TROUGH.

FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY, LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW AND WEAK RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SW BREEZES WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THEN THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND WETTER, WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND SHOWS A BIT MORE OF A SPLIT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS TO BE WINDY WEDNESDAY
AS H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS OR MORE WITH A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT.
INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT
HERE. MOVING INTO THURSDAY, THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE BETWEEN THE MODELS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS AS OF THIS WRITING. STILL, MY GUT
IS TELLING ME THE EC WILL END UP BEING MORE CORRECT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE WITH THE SPLITTING SOLUTION.

CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA SPREADING TO ALL AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THURSDAY. WARMED TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF A PORTOLA
TO GERLACH LINE WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONTINUED THE SHARP COOLDOWN FOR THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY END UP BEING
WARMER THAN WE HAVE ADVERTISED IF THE EC AND SPLITTING SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR HIGHWAY 95 THIS MORNING
NORTH OF YERINGTON, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY 16Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME
FOG AND HAZE NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z
WITH THE EAST WINDS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.

STILL EXPECT EAST WINDS SATURDAY TO KEEP KING FIRE SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO CREEP
NORTHWARD. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS66 KLOX 191000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFT LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS GENERATED BY
NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM 295-310 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 190959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFT LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS GENERATED BY
NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM 295-310 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS WERE MORE RANDOM IN NATURE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS
COAST AND VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY DAWN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT TO CAUSE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING NEAR LAX SHOWED A VERY WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH MAKES SENSE WHY CLOUDS ARE NOT MORE UNIFORM
S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. WIND PATTERNS ARE INTERESTING
THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL AREAS INTO LA COUNTY THE FLOW IS
MOSTLY CYCLONIC NW BECOMING SW OVER LA COUNTY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS CAUSING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO PILE UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE
I-5 CORRIDOR.

SYNOPTICALLY...A CLOSED 578 DM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. RAP AND NAM-WRF MODELS
INDICATED THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER SBA/VENTURA
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY AND MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON
ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL LET LATER SHIFT LOOK CLOSER TO SEE IF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT IN THE LOCAL MTNS ONCE AGAIN.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL IN AND MOVE NE INTO NEVADA
ALLOWING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS TO RISE. THERE WILL BE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT A QUICKER BURNOFF AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S...AND MID
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STAY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN
UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL VALLEYS
THROUGH WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FOR WED AND THU...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SHARPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD MEAN
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THURSDAY...WHERE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
LESS PRONOUNCED. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FOR WED...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS GENERATED BY
NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM 295-310 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAINFALL
TO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN EARLY SEASON WEATHER
SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL TO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE NORTH
BAY WHERE AS MUCH AS TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FELL. BUT ISOLATED
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SAW AS
MUCH RAINFALL...OR EVEN A BIT MORE...AS THE NORTH BAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE THE COASTAL TERRAIN BY ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN
TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH AS
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL. UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACCUMULATED
IN THE HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE EAST BAY
HILLS PICKED UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ACCUMULATED ABOUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH REGION-WIDE
24 RAINFALL TOTALS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINFALL IS DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
LONG SINCE ENDED IN THE NORTH BAY...BUT A FEW RAIN GAGES IN THE
HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR INDICATE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN THERE. A RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED REMOVAL OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTH
BAY AND ADDING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN HILLS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIG TO OUR
SOUTH...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

ONE CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS EVENING...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...AND SO PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE RECENT FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED THE
ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SOME
SINCE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE 850-950MB LAYER.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S WARM
NIGHTTIME READINGS. HOWEVER...COASTAL WATER TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND SO WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN CONFINING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT HIGHER FOR INLAND
AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MAY COOL A BIT IN COASTAL AREAS AS A
MARINE INVERSION REDEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY
HUMID THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER THEN MVFR IS FORECAST BEGINNING
08Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DECIDED TO FORECAST TEMPO IFR CIG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG (MIST) BRIEFLY FRI MORNING 10Z-14Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS REPORTED NOW TRANSITIONING
TO IFR BEGINNING 12Z. INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 12Z-16Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BEGINNING 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT
NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 190517
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN ALTOCU WITH BASES NEAR 9K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...THEN THIN OUT AFTER 15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
FROM THIS DECK...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT KIPL AND KBLH. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
WILL BE AT KIPL WHERE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT THROUGH 09Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190517
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN ALTOCU WITH BASES NEAR 9K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...THEN THIN OUT AFTER 15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
FROM THIS DECK...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT KIPL AND KBLH. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
WILL BE AT KIPL WHERE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT THROUGH 09Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS66 KSTO 190425
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
925 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather through the weekend except a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Cooling next week
with some precipitation possible around midweek.


&&

.Discussion...
Clearing skies this evening as offshore closed upper low is drifting
southward and modeled to be off the SoCal coast by Friday afternoon.
Upstream ridging will build over the West Coast through the weekend
bringing warmer temperatures. Highs expected to range from near to
upwards of 10 degrees above normal with upper 80s to upper 90s in
the Central Valley. Relatively weak delta breeze, currently, is
expected to gradually trend upwards through the weekend. Models
showing some moisture and instability over the Sierra Nevada to
support a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Surface
high pressure builds through the PacNW into the Great Basin as
thermal troughing deepens along the coast. This will increase
offshore flow late Friday into Saturday and bring increased
potential for smoke from the King fire to spread westward into the
Central Valley.

PCH

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry weather continues Monday into Tuesday as high pressure remains
over the Western US. This will bring a few days of above normal
temperatures.

The pattern changes again during the middle of next week as
another upper trough approaches again. Current progs suggest that
next week`s system may be a bit deeper and could tap into a decent
moisture plume. Feeling confident about the pattern change, but
less so with possible showery coverage and precipitation amounts.
With this forecast package, we`ve bumped up precipitation wording,
keeping the best chances generally north of Interstate 80. At the
very least, this pattern change will bring about some considerable
cooling for the middle of next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...
Ofshr upr low movs off SoCal cst Fri as upr rdg blds ovr NorCal. VFR
conds nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR conds in FU vcnty of King fire.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 190425
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
925 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather through the weekend except a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Cooling next week
with some precipitation possible around midweek.


&&

.Discussion...
Clearing skies this evening as offshore closed upper low is drifting
southward and modeled to be off the SoCal coast by Friday afternoon.
Upstream ridging will build over the West Coast through the weekend
bringing warmer temperatures. Highs expected to range from near to
upwards of 10 degrees above normal with upper 80s to upper 90s in
the Central Valley. Relatively weak delta breeze, currently, is
expected to gradually trend upwards through the weekend. Models
showing some moisture and instability over the Sierra Nevada to
support a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Surface
high pressure builds through the PacNW into the Great Basin as
thermal troughing deepens along the coast. This will increase
offshore flow late Friday into Saturday and bring increased
potential for smoke from the King fire to spread westward into the
Central Valley.

PCH

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry weather continues Monday into Tuesday as high pressure remains
over the Western US. This will bring a few days of above normal
temperatures.

The pattern changes again during the middle of next week as
another upper trough approaches again. Current progs suggest that
next week`s system may be a bit deeper and could tap into a decent
moisture plume. Feeling confident about the pattern change, but
less so with possible showery coverage and precipitation amounts.
With this forecast package, we`ve bumped up precipitation wording,
keeping the best chances generally north of Interstate 80. At the
very least, this pattern change will bring about some considerable
cooling for the middle of next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...
Ofshr upr low movs off SoCal cst Fri as upr rdg blds ovr NorCal. VFR
conds nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR conds in FU vcnty of King fire.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KLOX 190416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LEFT BEHIND A MOIST AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS WITH
STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VTU COUNTY VLYS. THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND COVER THE COAST AND
VLYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SALINAS RIVER VLY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE TO AROUND POINT CONCEPTION ON SAT...THEN
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA INTO NEVADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE MAIN
AFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST...VLYS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ON FRI...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND 10
PERCENT OR SO. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS SQUEEZES INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS
GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LEFT BEHIND A MOIST AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS WITH
STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VTU COUNTY VLYS. THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND COVER THE COAST AND
VLYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SALINAS RIVER VLY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE TO AROUND POINT CONCEPTION ON SAT...THEN
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA INTO NEVADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE MAIN
AFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST...VLYS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ON FRI...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND 10
PERCENT OR SO. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS SQUEEZES INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS
GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LEFT BEHIND A MOIST AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS WITH
STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VTU COUNTY VLYS. THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND COVER THE COAST AND
VLYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SALINAS RIVER VLY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE TO AROUND POINT CONCEPTION ON SAT...THEN
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA INTO NEVADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE MAIN
AFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST...VLYS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ON FRI...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND 10
PERCENT OR SO. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS SQUEEZES INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS
GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LEFT BEHIND A MOIST AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS WITH
STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VTU COUNTY VLYS. THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND COVER THE COAST AND
VLYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SALINAS RIVER VLY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE ANTELOPE VLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE TO AROUND POINT CONCEPTION ON SAT...THEN
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA INTO NEVADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE MAIN
AFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST...VLYS AND COASTAL SLOPES LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN
SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS FRI AND SAT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ON FRI...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND 10
PERCENT OR SO. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
TEXAS SQUEEZES INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/800 PM
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND
SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER PZZ655 AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXIST ELSEWHERE. LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE.

SEAS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SWELLS
GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSGX 190403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...AND THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH ALSO LOWERED SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHERE THE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY.

THE PRODIGAL STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN ABSENT AT THE COAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS RETURNED. LOW CLOUDS SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITIONING INTO A
CLOSED LOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION. ON SATURDAY THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA. MODELS FCST A WEAK VORT MAX TO
DRIFT OVER SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR AND THERE WILL ONLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCES FOR EVEN THAT TO HAPPEN ARE QUITE LOW SINCE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. IF THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS IT WOULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER...GUSTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT WINDS AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WILL COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LOCALLY OBSCURED...BUT ELSEWHERE MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY 18Z FRI IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FRI
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND AGAIN EARLY THU EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL STILL OCCUR
FRIDAY ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 190403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...AND THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH ALSO LOWERED SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHERE THE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TONIGHT WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND THE SAN GORGONIO PASS UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY.

THE PRODIGAL STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN ABSENT AT THE COAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS RETURNED. LOW CLOUDS SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITIONING INTO A
CLOSED LOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION. ON SATURDAY THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA. MODELS FCST A WEAK VORT MAX TO
DRIFT OVER SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR AND THERE WILL ONLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCES FOR EVEN THAT TO HAPPEN ARE QUITE LOW SINCE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. IF THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS IT WOULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER...GUSTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT WINDS AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
190400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WILL COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 3000 FT
MSL. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LOCALLY OBSCURED...BUT ELSEWHERE MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY 18Z FRI IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL BKN CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FRI
AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND AGAIN EARLY THU EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS THROUGH 07Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL STILL OCCUR
FRIDAY ON SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190334
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
834 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAINFALL
TO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN EARLY SEASON WEATHER
SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL TO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE NORTH
BAY WHERE AS MUCH AS TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FELL. BUT ISOLATED
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SAW AS
MUCH RAINFALL...OR EVEN A BIT MORE...AS THE NORTH BAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE THE COASTAL TERRAIN BY ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN
TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH AS
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL. UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACCUMULATED
IN THE HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE EAST BAY
HILLS PICKED UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ACCUMULATED ABOUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH REGION-WIDE
24 RAINFALL TOTALS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINFALL IS DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
LONG SINCE ENDED IN THE NORTH BAY...BUT A FEW RAIN GAGES IN THE
HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR INDICATE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN THERE. A RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED REMOVAL OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTH
BAY AND ADDING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN HILLS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIG TO OUR
SOUTH...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

ONE CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS EVENING...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...AND SO PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE RECENT FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED THE
ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SOME
SINCE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE 850-950MB LAYER.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S WARM
NIGHTTIME READINGS. HOWEVER...COASTAL WATER TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND SO WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN CONFINING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT HIGHER FOR INLAND
AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MAY COOL A BIT IN COASTAL AREAS AS A
MARINE INVERSION REDEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT
JUST A LITTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
STILL FAIRLY ELEVATED AT THE GROUND LEVEL. SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT WE`LL GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT SOME
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE
WATERS AND LAND. PLUS...NIGHTS ARE JUST A LITTLE LONGER SUPPORTING
GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SATURATION. WE`VE ALREADY SEEN SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG A COUPLE TIMES A WEEK OR
TWO AGO...CAN`T RECALL THE EXACT DATES. FAIRLY DECENT MIXING
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN VFR
OR MVFR AT AREA TERMINALS. ANY IFR/LIFR TONIGHT SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY LATE... BEGINNING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR IS LIKELY
AT AREA TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH WEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. MVFR CIG FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF FORECAST QUITE YET.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BY 03Z ALTHOUGH KMRY
ALREADY REPORTING BKN012 CIG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
BUT SAME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR. SIMILAR TO
THE BAY AREA...BELIEVE ANY IFR/LIFR WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE
TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 190334
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
834 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END IN ALL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAINFALL
TO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN EARLY SEASON WEATHER
SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL TO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE NORTH
BAY WHERE AS MUCH AS TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FELL. BUT ISOLATED
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL HILLS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SAW AS
MUCH RAINFALL...OR EVEN A BIT MORE...AS THE NORTH BAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UP THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE THE COASTAL TERRAIN BY ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN
TOTALS WERE GREATEST IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH AS
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FELL. UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACCUMULATED
IN THE HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE EAST BAY
HILLS PICKED UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ACCUMULATED ABOUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH REGION-WIDE
24 RAINFALL TOTALS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAINFALL IS DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
LONG SINCE ENDED IN THE NORTH BAY...BUT A FEW RAIN GAGES IN THE
HILLS ABOVE BIG SUR INDICATE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN THERE. A RECENT
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED REMOVAL OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTH
BAY AND ADDING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN HILLS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIG TO OUR
SOUTH...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

ONE CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THIS EVENING...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...AND SO PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE RECENT FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED THE
ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SOME
SINCE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE 850-950MB LAYER.
THUS...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW LAST NIGHT`S WARM
NIGHTTIME READINGS. HOWEVER...COASTAL WATER TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND SO WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN CONFINING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT A BIT HIGHER FOR INLAND
AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MAY COOL A BIT IN COASTAL AREAS AS A
MARINE INVERSION REDEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EVENTUALLY BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION STARTING AROUND
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT
JUST A LITTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
STILL FAIRLY ELEVATED AT THE GROUND LEVEL. SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT WE`LL GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT SOME
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE
WATERS AND LAND. PLUS...NIGHTS ARE JUST A LITTLE LONGER SUPPORTING
GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SATURATION. WE`VE ALREADY SEEN SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG A COUPLE TIMES A WEEK OR
TWO AGO...CAN`T RECALL THE EXACT DATES. FAIRLY DECENT MIXING
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN VFR
OR MVFR AT AREA TERMINALS. ANY IFR/LIFR TONIGHT SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY LATE... BEGINNING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR IS LIKELY
AT AREA TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH WEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. MVFR CIG FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF FORECAST QUITE YET.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BY 03Z ALTHOUGH KMRY
ALREADY REPORTING BKN012 CIG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
BUT SAME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR. SIMILAR TO
THE BAY AREA...BELIEVE ANY IFR/LIFR WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE
TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS65 KREV 190311
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
811 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER WRN NV THIS EVENING
AND BEGINNING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW. DURING THE LAST HOUR
VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE RENO AREA BUT REMAINS
LOW IN SOME OTHER SPOTS. THE LESSENING OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
THIS PROCESS AS LESS SMOKE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT OVER WRN NV AND
CHANGES WERE MADE TO DROP THE CONVECTION FOR NE CA LATE THIS
EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MAY BE TRYING
TO CLOSE OFF A LITTLE FARTHER WSW THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP PCPN IN A DEFORMATION
BAND OVER WRN NV. THIS WAS MAINTAINED...BUT IF LOW CLOSES OFF
FARTHER WEST THEN WE MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH OF THIS PCPN.
AND...THIS COULD ALSO DELAY THE INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT WOULD HELP TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL BANK ON MOST OF THE SMOKE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 190311
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
811 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER WRN NV THIS EVENING
AND BEGINNING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW. DURING THE LAST HOUR
VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE RENO AREA BUT REMAINS
LOW IN SOME OTHER SPOTS. THE LESSENING OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
THIS PROCESS AS LESS SMOKE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT OVER WRN NV AND
CHANGES WERE MADE TO DROP THE CONVECTION FOR NE CA LATE THIS
EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MAY BE TRYING
TO CLOSE OFF A LITTLE FARTHER WSW THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP PCPN IN A DEFORMATION
BAND OVER WRN NV. THIS WAS MAINTAINED...BUT IF LOW CLOSES OFF
FARTHER WEST THEN WE MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH OF THIS PCPN.
AND...THIS COULD ALSO DELAY THE INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT WOULD HELP TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL BANK ON MOST OF THE SMOKE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 190311
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
811 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER WRN NV THIS EVENING
AND BEGINNING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW. DURING THE LAST HOUR
VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE RENO AREA BUT REMAINS
LOW IN SOME OTHER SPOTS. THE LESSENING OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
THIS PROCESS AS LESS SMOKE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT OVER WRN NV AND
CHANGES WERE MADE TO DROP THE CONVECTION FOR NE CA LATE THIS
EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MAY BE TRYING
TO CLOSE OFF A LITTLE FARTHER WSW THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP PCPN IN A DEFORMATION
BAND OVER WRN NV. THIS WAS MAINTAINED...BUT IF LOW CLOSES OFF
FARTHER WEST THEN WE MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH OF THIS PCPN.
AND...THIS COULD ALSO DELAY THE INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT WOULD HELP TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL BANK ON MOST OF THE SMOKE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 190311
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
811 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER WRN NV THIS EVENING
AND BEGINNING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW. DURING THE LAST HOUR
VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE RENO AREA BUT REMAINS
LOW IN SOME OTHER SPOTS. THE LESSENING OF THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
THIS PROCESS AS LESS SMOKE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT OVER WRN NV AND
CHANGES WERE MADE TO DROP THE CONVECTION FOR NE CA LATE THIS
EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MAY BE TRYING
TO CLOSE OFF A LITTLE FARTHER WSW THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP PCPN IN A DEFORMATION
BAND OVER WRN NV. THIS WAS MAINTAINED...BUT IF LOW CLOSES OFF
FARTHER WEST THEN WE MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO SEE MUCH OF THIS PCPN.
AND...THIS COULD ALSO DELAY THE INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL EASTERLY
FLOW THAT WOULD HELP TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WILL BANK ON MOST OF THE SMOKE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 190038
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
538 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT
JUST A LITTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
STILL FAIRLY ELEVATED AT THE GROUND LEVEL. SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NOT ENTIRELY SURE THAT WE`LL GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT SOME
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE
WATERS AND LAND. PLUS...NIGHTS ARE JUST A LITTLE LONGER SUPPORTING
GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SATURATION. WE`VE ALREADY SEEN SOME
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG A COUPLE TIMES A WEEK OR
TWO AGO...CAN`T RECALL THE EXACT DATES. FAIRLY DECENT MIXING
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN VFR
OR MVFR AT AREA TERMINALS. ANY IFR/LIFR TONIGHT SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY LATE... BEGINNING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR IS LIKELY
AT AREA TERMINALS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH WEST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. MVFR CIG FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 07Z. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF FORECAST QUITE YET.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BY 03Z ALTHOUGH KMRY
ALREADY REPORTING BKN012 CIG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
BUT SAME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR. SIMILAR TO
THE BAY AREA...BELIEVE ANY IFR/LIFR WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE
TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 190002 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190002 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190002 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 190002 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0000Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND FRI FOR ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KLAX TO 09Z
AT KSBA. ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS EXCEPT FOR KLAX. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY TO
THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE FRI MORNING OR FRI
AFTERNOON AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...KLGB...KBUR AND KVNY WHICH MAY BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR KSBA...KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB...THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU FRI AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE AIRFIELD AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME MAY BE
INTERMITTENT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE FRI AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI
EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND FRI. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z THEN LINGER THRU
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KHNX 182239
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOLER ACROSS THE DISTRICT. 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURES TRENDS RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH 24 HOUR
TRENDS 8-10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE SJV AND COOLER IN SOME FOOTHILLS
LOCALES. THE FEATURE FOR THE COOLING IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SATELLITE DERIVED
PW ALSO SHOW MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AREA. MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN SPREADING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS SOME VALLEY LIGHTING AND
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST
HAS INCREASED OVER 5KFT. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES ON WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND THE DESERT PASSES INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN. THE SIERRA WILL BE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO NV SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS
MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING
TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 182239
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
339 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOLER ACROSS THE DISTRICT. 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURES TRENDS RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH 24 HOUR
TRENDS 8-10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE SJV AND COOLER IN SOME FOOTHILLS
LOCALES. THE FEATURE FOR THE COOLING IS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS IN GOOD
CONSENSUS AND INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST LATE FRIDAY. THEN PUSHING NORTHEAST OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER SATELLITE DERIVED
PW ALSO SHOW MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AREA. MODELS DEVELOP INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN SPREADING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS SOME VALLEY LIGHTING AND
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST
HAS INCREASED OVER 5KFT. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES ON WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY AND THE DESERT PASSES INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN. THE SIERRA WILL BE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO NV SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN RISING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS
MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING
TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSTO 182231
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
331 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper trough will shift further onshore this afternoon and bring
light showers to portions of interior northern California. The
base of the 571mb upper trough is directly along the northern
coast of California extending from the North Bay to Eureka. The
upper low is forecast to dig southeast towards Southern California
and transition into a closed low before ejecting into the Great
Basin via the westerlies late in the weekend.

Overnight precipitation brought light accumulations to portions
of the coastal range, extreme northern Sierra, and Shasta county.
Minor additional accumulations occured earlier today over the
coastal range as showers pushed further inland. Latest composite
radar imagery continues to show light returns over the Coastal
range this afternoon, however the event appears to be winding
down. A report of a funnel cloud near Chico came in late this
morning when shear profiles supported such an event, so most
likely a valid sighting.

The King Fire experienced aggressive growth on the
northern perimeter yesterday and expanded by over 50000 acres due
to low humidities and moderate winds. Conditions today will be
slightly better with higher humidities and lower winds, however
only minimal amounts of precipitation, if any, are expected to
fall over the fire for the rest of the day. Smoke from this fire
will continue to impact nearby communities and could sink into the
valley (mostly along the extreme eastern edge of the Southern
Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys) after Friday when the winds
shift following the trough. Additional resources are in the
process of being added to fight the fire.

Temperatures rebound closer to normal values for tomorrow and into
the weekend after todays dip.

DRP


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry weather continues Monday into Tuesday as high pressure remains
over the Western US. This will bring a few days of above normal
temperatures.

The pattern changes again during the middle of next week as
another upper trough approaches again. Current progs suggest that
next week`s system may be a bit deeper and could tap into a decent
moisture plume. Feeling confident about the pattern change, but
less so with possible showery coverage and precipitation amounts.
With this forecast package, we`ve bumped up precipitation wording,
keeping the best chances generally north of Interstate 80. At the
very least, this pattern change will bring about some considerable
cooling for the middle of next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours with isolated SHRA along
the Coastal Ranges. These showers will be dissipating this
evening. South to southwest winds 10-15 kt across the Valley will
become light this evening, then become northerly late tonight into
Friday. Local SW wind gusts to 40 kts will continue over Sierra
ridges through this afternoon.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 182209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 182209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET OVER
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MEANDERS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WEST OF TAHOE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO
THE NORTH TAHOE AND RENO AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
IMPROVE THE SMOKEY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEVADA. AS FOR
LAKE TAHOE THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR EASTERLY
WINDS KEEPING SMOKE OUT OF THE BASIN, ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE MAY
BE SOME SMOKE CREEPING BACK INTO THE BASIN LATE IN THE DAY AS
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS COULD IMPACT WEEKEND EVENTS
AROUND LAKE TAHOE

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEVADA. DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO CREATE
SOME ADDED LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP TO GET SOME OF THE PARTICULATES OUT OF THE
AIR AS WELL. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THE NAM AND HRRR ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO
SHOW SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOW DROPS OFF THE CA COAST SLIGHTLY, BUT
HELPS TO BRING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY
AND CREEPING UP INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AND LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT LIFTS, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FORMS A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, ONLY THE EC WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION, AND
WHILE IT IS STILL THE MOST ROBUST, OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW
COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. THEREFORE, POPS WERE
INCREASED FOR THE PERIOD, THOUGH DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THEY WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED FURTHER. WHILE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP TROUGH. IF THE KING FIRE
IS STILL ACTIVELY BURNING, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER LARGE PUSH
OF SMOKE INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT TIME WILL TELL
HOW THE FIRE EVOLVES. THERE IS DECENT LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE FROM THE KING
FIRE WITH MOST DRASTIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF
TAHOE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREATER RENO AREA, PAST
PYRAMID LAKE AND INTO KWMC. BOTH KTRK AND KRNO ARE REPORTING 2SM
VISIBILITY AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SHIFT SMOKE INTO
KTVL AND KCXP AS WELL. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
WINDS LIGHTEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH, AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN SMOKE FREE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN NORTHEAST NEVADA. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD POP UP, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KEKA 182202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
302 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...2145Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, MOVING INLAND. 2145Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
REMNANT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW, SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EVENING
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND IS REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY A CUT
OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH, OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. NO RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS LOW AS THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST
AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FRONT AND RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUMPED UP POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC
AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME
AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
KUKI THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE FRIDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND
SEAS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 182202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
302 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...2145Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, MOVING INLAND. 2145Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
REMNANT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW, SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EVENING
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND IS REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY A CUT
OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH, OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. NO RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS LOW AS THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST
AND BEING ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FRONT AND RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUMPED UP POPS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC
AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME
AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
KUKI THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE FRIDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND
SEAS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 182135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED EVEN THOUGH STRONG HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ELEVATING MLCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO GO UP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ODILE IS LIKELY THE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS GILA COUNTY. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...FEELING IS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WON/T LAST VERY LONG INTO
THIS EVENING.

AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED EVEN THOUGH STRONG HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ELEVATING MLCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO GO UP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ODILE IS LIKELY THE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS GILA COUNTY. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...FEELING IS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WON/T LAST VERY LONG INTO
THIS EVENING.

AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED EVEN THOUGH STRONG HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ELEVATING MLCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO GO UP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ODILE IS LIKELY THE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS GILA COUNTY. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...FEELING IS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WON/T LAST VERY LONG INTO
THIS EVENING.

AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED EVEN THOUGH STRONG HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ELEVATING MLCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO GO UP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ODILE IS LIKELY THE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS GILA COUNTY. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...FEELING IS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WON/T LAST VERY LONG INTO
THIS EVENING.

AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
















000
FXUS66 KMTR 182129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
229 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE COAST AND IS MAINTAINING MID LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS OVER
THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE LOCAL DEW
POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 182129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
229 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE COAST AND IS MAINTAINING MID LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS OVER
THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE LOCAL DEW
POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 182129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
229 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE COAST AND IS MAINTAINING MID LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS OVER
THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE LOCAL DEW
POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 182129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
229 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE COAST AND IS MAINTAINING MID LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS OVER
THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE LOCAL DEW
POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 182106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER 19/00Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AFTER 19/22Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 3.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 1.5KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS BROKEN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WAS
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD WAS OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD TOPS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1KFT OVER THE BIGHT AND
THE FIELD WILL BECOME OVERCAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUD TOPS
AND FIELD WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED BELOW 3KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 19/05Z AND AFTER 19/18Z...OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 020-025 BETWEEN 19/07-19/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 012 AFTER 19/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 182106
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS PRODUCED A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO SBA COUNTY. THIS HAS PUSH
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE HEAT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE TURNING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TO MODERATELY
ONSHORE. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY OVER NEARLY EVERY COUNTY. CURIOUSLY ENOUGH THE
CENTRAL COAST IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE ONLY EXPLANATION
BEING THE WIPING OF THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT
LOOKS TO STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONE MORE WEAK SUNDOWNER LOOKS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CANYONS AND WELL
BELOW ADVISORY.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF INTO A WEAK LOW THAT WILL WOBBLE
AROUND CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND INTO FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW THE CLOUDS WILL
RESPOND. ALL COMPUTER PROJECTIONS ARE SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOIST LAYER FROM THE COAST PUSHING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE IT DID OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. ADDING TO
THAT...THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS TO BEGIN WITH OFF THE COAST
AND THE OCEAN WATERS ARE AS WARM AS THEY EVER GET. ALL OF THIS
LEAVES THIS FORECASTER STUMPED AS TO WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL LOOK LIKE
TOMORROW MORNING. MADE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS A RESULT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS PLENTY OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOTS OF RANDOM CLEAR GAPS AND
ANYTHING BUT SOLID. DRIZZLE IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PLENTY OF TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PLAY WITH.
THEN AGAIN...IT COULD END UP STAYING CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW WOBBLING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN IN THE MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUD
COVER WE SEE ON FRIDAY...SHOULD BE DECREASED ON SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE A LITTLE AS A RESULT. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO NEVADA AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS CALLED FOR THE WARMING TREND TO
COMMENCE...SO WHILE CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY...WENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE. IF COMPUTER MODELS KEEP
HINTING AT THIS...WE SHOULD SEE THAT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
MODELS STILL HOLDING COURSE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS...BUT NOT EVEN
HINTING AT THE SCORCHING HOT SOLUTIONS THAT PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING. THE EDGE OF A LARGE TROUGH LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...WHILE THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS SQUEEZES
INTO NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH...WE SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF...BACKED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A SECONDARY LOW DROPPING DOWN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TROUGH...BLOCKED BY A
HUGE RIDGE (THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST)
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...TO DIP INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A LOT COULD HAPPEN WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
START LOWERING TEMPERATURES SOME AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODELS SAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER 19/00Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AFTER 19/22Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 3.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 1.5KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS BROKEN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WAS
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD WAS OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD TOPS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1KFT OVER THE BIGHT AND
THE FIELD WILL BECOME OVERCAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUD TOPS
AND FIELD WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED BELOW 3KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 19/05Z AND AFTER 19/18Z...OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 020-025 BETWEEN 19/07-19/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 012 AFTER 19/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...18/200 PM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 182049
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
149 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF
ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.
THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH
WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
COAST PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING
THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300Z.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 182033
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE
INVERSION AT AROUND 1600 FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT AROUND 620 MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO
INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND 0.8 INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
STABILITY...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE
FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE DESERTS...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO.
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY...AS THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 7.8 MB
ONSHORE...WHEREAS IT WAS ONLY 1.8 MB ONSHORE 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS AT THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERTS. WHITEWATER RAWS
REPORTED A 53 MPH GUST AT 1150 AM. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG IN THE SAN DIEGO DESERTS.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
182030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC
LOW CLOUDS BASED 1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET
MSL...WILL MOVE INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIMES AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS
MODERATE FOR THIS EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
145 PM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
145 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS INTO THE
EVENING. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS ARE LIKELY ON
EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL





000
FXUS65 KPSR 182029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 182029
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
















000
FXUS66 KSTO 181844 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
938 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper trough will shift further onshore today and spread cooler
temperatures and light showers/thunderstorms throughout much of
interior northern California. The base of the 571dm upper trough
is directly along the northern coast of California extending from
the North Bay to Eureka. The upper low is forecast to dig southeast
towards Southern California and transition into a closed low before
ejecting into the Great Basin via the westerlies late in the
weekend.

Overnight precipitation brought light accumulations to portions
of the coastal range, extreme northern Sierra, and Shasta county.
Correlation coefficient radar imagery indicates light showers
moving in ahead of the base of the trough. Additional
accumulations are expected this afternoon as the showers push
further inland. Short-term model data suggests considerable
instability, shear, and lift for this time of the year, so
isolated thunderstorms throughout the area are possible beginning
mid-day and lasting into the late afternoon. The NAM is the most
aggressive, with widespread convective potential throughout the
region. The WRF is more conservative, and the more likely scenario,
indicating enhanced potential over the higher terrain of Shasta
county and the Sierra Nevada.

The King Fire experienced aggressive growth on the northern
perimeter yesterday and expanded by over 50000 acres due to low
humidities and moderate winds. Conditions today will be slightly
better with higher humidities and lower winds, however only
minimal amounts of precipitation, if any, are expected to fall
over the fire. The heat from the fire should cause lighter
precipitation to evaporate before it even reaches to ground, but
this process does increase the local relative humidity. The main
threat today is additional starts from any isolated lightning. Smoke
from this fire will continue to impact nearby communities and
could sink into the valley after Friday when the winds shift
following the trough. DRP

Previous Discussion... Upper level trough will be moving
inland today. Radar imagery overnight has shown shower activity in
Shasta County near I-5 and westward to the NorCal coastline. At 4
am, most of the showers were west and north of our CWA due to a
dry slot moving into our region. On water vapor imagery, moisture
offshore is digging slightly southward and should impact our
region later today. Once the trough moves inland, models are
indicating increased instability over NorCal which will result in
a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of our CWA. In the morning and early afternoon hours, instability
looks best over the Coastal and Sierra mountains north of I-80
including the adjacent foothills into the valley. The WRF model
echoes this by showing shower activity across Lake County
northward along the coastal range...across Tehama & Shasta
counties...and from Chico & Oroville eastward into the Sierra. By
late afternoon into early evening, instability continues along the
Sierra and spreads southward of I-80, however, the WRF shows
showers diminishing in areal coverage. So have stuck with the
forecast of having isolated showers/t-storms south of I-80 and
scattered showers/t-storms north of I-80 today with showers
limited to higher terrain for tonight.

Daytime highs today will be cooler than normal. Our CWA will
generally range 5 to 15 degrees below average. This will translate to
valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain
warming into the 60s and 70s. However, on Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will warm again to normal and above normal.

The King Fire is still likely to cause smoky conditions as it
doesn`t look like there is a high probability for heavy rain to
dampen this wildfire. With southwest to westerly winds this
morning, smoke will spread towards the Tahoe region again. On
Friday, winds should be northerly in the morning which will spread
smoke southward. (See Previous Discussion below)
&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

For Monday into Tuesday, weak ridging develops over our CWA which
will maintain dry weather with daytime highs near to above normal.
The extended models (ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) are in good agreement
that another trough will dig southward and swing into NorCal
Wednesday and Thursday. Have increased pops and lowered temperatures to
account for this cooler, wetter pattern.


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
Shasta County and Coastal Range and spreading SE over the
northern/Central Sac valley, northeast foothills, and Sierra by
this morning. Local SWerly sfc gusts up to 30 to 45 kts over
higher mountain peaks today, decreasing by this evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 181844 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
938 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper trough will shift further onshore today and spread cooler
temperatures and light showers/thunderstorms throughout much of
interior northern California. The base of the 571dm upper trough
is directly along the northern coast of California extending from
the North Bay to Eureka. The upper low is forecast to dig southeast
towards Southern California and transition into a closed low before
ejecting into the Great Basin via the westerlies late in the
weekend.

Overnight precipitation brought light accumulations to portions
of the coastal range, extreme northern Sierra, and Shasta county.
Correlation coefficient radar imagery indicates light showers
moving in ahead of the base of the trough. Additional
accumulations are expected this afternoon as the showers push
further inland. Short-term model data suggests considerable
instability, shear, and lift for this time of the year, so
isolated thunderstorms throughout the area are possible beginning
mid-day and lasting into the late afternoon. The NAM is the most
aggressive, with widespread convective potential throughout the
region. The WRF is more conservative, and the more likely scenario,
indicating enhanced potential over the higher terrain of Shasta
county and the Sierra Nevada.

The King Fire experienced aggressive growth on the northern
perimeter yesterday and expanded by over 50000 acres due to low
humidities and moderate winds. Conditions today will be slightly
better with higher humidities and lower winds, however only
minimal amounts of precipitation, if any, are expected to fall
over the fire. The heat from the fire should cause lighter
precipitation to evaporate before it even reaches to ground, but
this process does increase the local relative humidity. The main
threat today is additional starts from any isolated lightning. Smoke
from this fire will continue to impact nearby communities and
could sink into the valley after Friday when the winds shift
following the trough. DRP

Previous Discussion... Upper level trough will be moving
inland today. Radar imagery overnight has shown shower activity in
Shasta County near I-5 and westward to the NorCal coastline. At 4
am, most of the showers were west and north of our CWA due to a
dry slot moving into our region. On water vapor imagery, moisture
offshore is digging slightly southward and should impact our
region later today. Once the trough moves inland, models are
indicating increased instability over NorCal which will result in
a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of our CWA. In the morning and early afternoon hours, instability
looks best over the Coastal and Sierra mountains north of I-80
including the adjacent foothills into the valley. The WRF model
echoes this by showing shower activity across Lake County
northward along the coastal range...across Tehama & Shasta
counties...and from Chico & Oroville eastward into the Sierra. By
late afternoon into early evening, instability continues along the
Sierra and spreads southward of I-80, however, the WRF shows
showers diminishing in areal coverage. So have stuck with the
forecast of having isolated showers/t-storms south of I-80 and
scattered showers/t-storms north of I-80 today with showers
limited to higher terrain for tonight.

Daytime highs today will be cooler than normal. Our CWA will
generally range 5 to 15 degrees below average. This will translate to
valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain
warming into the 60s and 70s. However, on Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will warm again to normal and above normal.

The King Fire is still likely to cause smoky conditions as it
doesn`t look like there is a high probability for heavy rain to
dampen this wildfire. With southwest to westerly winds this
morning, smoke will spread towards the Tahoe region again. On
Friday, winds should be northerly in the morning which will spread
smoke southward. (See Previous Discussion below)
&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

For Monday into Tuesday, weak ridging develops over our CWA which
will maintain dry weather with daytime highs near to above normal.
The extended models (ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) are in good agreement
that another trough will dig southward and swing into NorCal
Wednesday and Thursday. Have increased pops and lowered temperatures to
account for this cooler, wetter pattern.


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
Shasta County and Coastal Range and spreading SE over the
northern/Central Sac valley, northeast foothills, and Sierra by
this morning. Local SWerly sfc gusts up to 30 to 45 kts over
higher mountain peaks today, decreasing by this evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
COAST PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING
THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300Z.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
COAST PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING
THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300Z.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
COAST PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING
THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300Z.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
COAST PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING
THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300Z.

CONFIDENCE MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT THURSDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 181748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1049 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER 19/00Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AFTER 19/22Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 3.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 1.5KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS BROKEN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WAS
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD WAS OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD TOPS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1KFT OVER THE BIGHT AND
THE FIELD WILL BECOME OVERCAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUD TOPS
AND FIELD WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED BELOW 3KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 19/05Z AND AFTER 19/18Z...OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXEPCTED.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 020-025 BETWEEN 19/07-19/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 012 AFTER 19/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...18/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 181748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1049 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER 19/00Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST
WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AFTER 19/22Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 3.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 1.5KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS BROKEN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WAS
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD WAS OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD TOPS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1KFT OVER THE BIGHT AND
THE FIELD WILL BECOME OVERCAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUD TOPS
AND FIELD WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED BELOW 3KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 19/05Z AND AFTER 19/18Z...OTHERWISE A MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXEPCTED.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 020-025 BETWEEN 19/07-19/20Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 012 AFTER 19/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...18/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS65 KPSR 181729
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST WILL
INCLUDE SHWRS IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY AND
VRBL SURFACE WINDS AND CIGS TO 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS













000
FXUS65 KPSR 181729
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST WILL
INCLUDE SHWRS IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY AND
VRBL SURFACE WINDS AND CIGS TO 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS













000
FXUS65 KPSR 181729
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST WILL
INCLUDE SHWRS IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY AND
VRBL SURFACE WINDS AND CIGS TO 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS













000
FXUS65 KPSR 181729
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST WILL
INCLUDE SHWRS IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY AND
VRBL SURFACE WINDS AND CIGS TO 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS













000
FXUS65 KPSR 181641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 181641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KSTO 181638
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
938 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper trough will shift further onshore today and spread cooler
temperatures and light showers/thunderstorms throughout much of
interior northern California. The base of the 571mb upper trough
is directly along the northern coast of California extending from
the North Bay to Eureka. The upper low is forecast to dig southeast
towards Southern California and transition into a closed low before
ejecting into the Great Basin via the westerlies late in the
weekend.

Overnight precipitation brought light accumulations to portions
of the coastal range, extreme northern Sierra, and Shasta county.
Correlation coefficient radar imagery indicates light showers
moving in ahead of the base of the trough. Additional
accumulations are expected this afternoon as the showers push
further inland. Short-term model data suggests considerable
instability, shear, and lift for this time of the year, so
isolated thunderstorms throughout the area are possible beginning
mid-day and lasting into the late afternoon. The NAM is the most
aggressive, with widespread convective potential throughout the
region. The WRF is more conservative, and the more likely scenario,
indicating enhanced potential over the higher terrain of Shasta
county and the Sierra Nevada.

The King Fire experienced aggressive growth on the northern
perimeter yesterday and expanded by over 50000 acres due to low
humidities and moderate winds. Conditions today will be slightly
better with higher humidities and lower winds, however only
minimal amounts of precipitation, if any, are expected to fall
over the fire. The heat from the fire should cause lighter
precipitation to evaporate before it even reaches to ground, but
this process does increase the local relative humidity. The main
threat today is additional starts from any isolated lightning. Smoke
from this fire will continue to impact nearby communities and
could sink into the valley after Friday when the winds shift
following the trough. DRP

Previous Discussion... Upper level trough will be moving
inland today. Radar imagery overnight has shown shower activity in
Shasta County near I-5 and westward to the NorCal coastline. At 4
am, most of the showers were west and north of our CWA due to a
dry slot moving into our region. On water vapor imagery, moisture
offshore is digging slightly southward and should impact our
region later today. Once the trough moves inland, models are
indicating increased instability over NorCal which will result in
a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of our CWA. In the morning and early afternoon hours, instability
looks best over the Coastal and Sierra mountains north of I-80
including the adjacent foothills into the valley. The WRF model
echoes this by showing shower activity across Lake County
northward along the coastal range...across Tehama & Shasta
counties...and from Chico & Oroville eastward into the Sierra. By
late afternoon into early evening, instability continues along the
Sierra and spreads southward of I-80, however, the WRF shows
showers diminishing in areal coverage. So have stuck with the
forecast of having isolated showers/t-storms south of I-80 and
scattered showers/t-storms north of I-80 today with showers
limited to higher terrain for tonight.

Daytime highs today will be cooler than normal. Our CWA will
generally range 5 to 15 degrees below average. This will translate to
valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain
warming into the 60s and 70s. However, on Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will warm again to normal and above normal.

The King Fire is still likely to cause smoky conditions as it
doesn`t look like there is a high probability for heavy rain to
dampen this wildfire. With southwest to westerly winds this
morning, smoke will spread towards the Tahoe region again. On
Friday, winds should be northerly in the morning which will spread
smoke southward. (See Previous Discussion below)
&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

For Monday into Tuesday, weak ridging develops over our CWA which
will maintain dry weather with daytime highs near to above normal.
The extended models (ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) are in good agreement
that another trough will dig southward and swing into NorCal
Wednesday and Thursday. Have increased pops and lowered temperatures to
account for this cooler, wetter pattern.


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
Shasta County and Coastal Range and spreading SE over the
northern/Central Sac valley, northeast foothills, and Sierra by
this morning. Local SWerly sfc gusts up to 30 to 45 kts over
higher mountain peaks today, decreasing by this evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 181638
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
938 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
An upper trough will shift further onshore today and spread cooler
temperatures and light showers/thunderstorms throughout much of
interior northern California. The base of the 571mb upper trough
is directly along the northern coast of California extending from
the North Bay to Eureka. The upper low is forecast to dig southeast
towards Southern California and transition into a closed low before
ejecting into the Great Basin via the westerlies late in the
weekend.

Overnight precipitation brought light accumulations to portions
of the coastal range, extreme northern Sierra, and Shasta county.
Correlation coefficient radar imagery indicates light showers
moving in ahead of the base of the trough. Additional
accumulations are expected this afternoon as the showers push
further inland. Short-term model data suggests considerable
instability, shear, and lift for this time of the year, so
isolated thunderstorms throughout the area are possible beginning
mid-day and lasting into the late afternoon. The NAM is the most
aggressive, with widespread convective potential throughout the
region. The WRF is more conservative, and the more likely scenario,
indicating enhanced potential over the higher terrain of Shasta
county and the Sierra Nevada.

The King Fire experienced aggressive growth on the northern
perimeter yesterday and expanded by over 50000 acres due to low
humidities and moderate winds. Conditions today will be slightly
better with higher humidities and lower winds, however only
minimal amounts of precipitation, if any, are expected to fall
over the fire. The heat from the fire should cause lighter
precipitation to evaporate before it even reaches to ground, but
this process does increase the local relative humidity. The main
threat today is additional starts from any isolated lightning. Smoke
from this fire will continue to impact nearby communities and
could sink into the valley after Friday when the winds shift
following the trough. DRP

Previous Discussion... Upper level trough will be moving
inland today. Radar imagery overnight has shown shower activity in
Shasta County near I-5 and westward to the NorCal coastline. At 4
am, most of the showers were west and north of our CWA due to a
dry slot moving into our region. On water vapor imagery, moisture
offshore is digging slightly southward and should impact our
region later today. Once the trough moves inland, models are
indicating increased instability over NorCal which will result in
a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of our CWA. In the morning and early afternoon hours, instability
looks best over the Coastal and Sierra mountains north of I-80
including the adjacent foothills into the valley. The WRF model
echoes this by showing shower activity across Lake County
northward along the coastal range...across Tehama & Shasta
counties...and from Chico & Oroville eastward into the Sierra. By
late afternoon into early evening, instability continues along the
Sierra and spreads southward of I-80, however, the WRF shows
showers diminishing in areal coverage. So have stuck with the
forecast of having isolated showers/t-storms south of I-80 and
scattered showers/t-storms north of I-80 today with showers
limited to higher terrain for tonight.

Daytime highs today will be cooler than normal. Our CWA will
generally range 5 to 15 degrees below average. This will translate to
valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain
warming into the 60s and 70s. However, on Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will warm again to normal and above normal.

The King Fire is still likely to cause smoky conditions as it
doesn`t look like there is a high probability for heavy rain to
dampen this wildfire. With southwest to westerly winds this
morning, smoke will spread towards the Tahoe region again. On
Friday, winds should be northerly in the morning which will spread
smoke southward. (See Previous Discussion below)
&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

For Monday into Tuesday, weak ridging develops over our CWA which
will maintain dry weather with daytime highs near to above normal.
The extended models (ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) are in good agreement
that another trough will dig southward and swing into NorCal
Wednesday and Thursday. Have increased pops and lowered temperatures to
account for this cooler, wetter pattern.


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
Shasta County and Coastal Range and spreading SE over the
northern/Central Sac valley, northeast foothills, and Sierra by
this morning. Local SWerly sfc gusts up to 30 to 45 kts over
higher mountain peaks today, decreasing by this evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181633
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181633
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/900 AM

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND
WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TO
SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. SEAS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF POINT
ARENA THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A 982MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FROM 295-310 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181606
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN UPON AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO SCATTERING POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
LOW CENTERED APPROX 435 NM DUE WEST OF POINT ARENA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181606
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN UPON AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO SCATTERING POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
LOW CENTERED APPROX 435 NM DUE WEST OF POINT ARENA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181606
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEARLY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE
ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS OUR LATEST ANALYSIS AND NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF THIS MORNING...THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.60" DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. NORTH BAY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.50" WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN UPON AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO SCATTERING POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
LOW CENTERED APPROX 435 NM DUE WEST OF POINT ARENA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RG/KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 181602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ650
AND 655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW WINDS
DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ650
AND 655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW WINDS
DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 181602
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
DRASTICALLY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH
BY MIDWEEK TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND START A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS COMPLETELY ERODED THE
MARINE INVERSION BUT STILL BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREDIBLE 15 DEGREES
C OF COOLING TO THE MORNING VANDENBERG SOUNDING BETWEEN 1K AND 3K
FEET...BUT SOME WARMING AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE LACK OF A MARINE
LAYER. SOUTHERN SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COUNTIES ARE ALSO SEEING
DRASTIC CHANGES WITH AMPLE COOLING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER IS INTACT OFF LA COUNTY
WITH SOME STRATUS VERY NEAR TO THE BEACHES. FORECAST IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 10 DEGREES OF COOLING EVERYWHERE FROM
YESTERDAY. MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRATUS FROM VENTURA COUNTY. A STRONG INCREASE TO ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM.
OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PZZ650
AND 655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW WINDS
DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 181601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS INTO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SECTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BRING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND AND SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY STRATUS WAS ABLE TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE MARINE INVERSION AT AROUND 1600
FEET...WITH LESS INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PROFILE...AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 620
MB. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NO INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...AND
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES OF ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THUS...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND INCREASING STABILITY...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR...AND ONSHORE FLOW...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.
DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING 5-15 DEGREES LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO...THE WEAK MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CLEARING TODAY. HOWEVER...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS
THAT THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE THICK ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALSO. THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOKS TO PEAK AT AROUND 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT...AND 6 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...DESERT SLOPES AND
ADJACENT DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND LOCALLY 50 MPH.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SPLITS OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSUMES A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THERES A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
COULD BRING UP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A
PRETTY SLIM CHANCE THOUGH...AS MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN
DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A WARMING TREND...WITH THE
MARINE LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS/FOG MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-SCT CLOUDS BASED 1500-2000 FEET
MSL...TOPS 2500 FEET MSL...WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 18Z. AFTER 01Z THIS AFTERNOON OVC LOW CLOUDS BASED
1800-2500 FEET MSL...TOPS APPROACHING 3000 FEET MSL...WILL MOVE
INLAND...REACHING KRNM/KONT AROUND 08Z TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY MORNING COMPARED TO TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRATUS ARRIVAL TIME AT THE COASTAL TAFS IS MODERATE FOR THIS
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
845 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
845 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181314
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN LOCAL DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER DEEP...AND CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS
OF SLO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...BUT LOW CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WERE ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
NEAR THE COAST N OF PT CONCEPTION. TODAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOCATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA TO REACH EVEN 90 DEGREES TODAY. GUSTY SW TO W WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY
TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ650-655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW
WINDS DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...18/400 AM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 181230
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY....THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN LOCAL DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER DEEP...AND CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS
OF SLO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...BUT LOW CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WERE ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. TODAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 10 TO
15 DEGREES FROM THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH EVEN 90 DEGREES TODAY. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS INTO THE
ANTELOPE VLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ650-655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW
WINDS DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...18/400 AM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181230
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY....THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN LOCAL DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER DEEP...AND CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS
OF SLO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...BUT LOW CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WERE ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. TODAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 10 TO
15 DEGREES FROM THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH EVEN 90 DEGREES TODAY. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS INTO THE
ANTELOPE VLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...18/1220Z...
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 19Z.
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CENTRAL COAST TAFS COULD PUSH INLAND BY 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE IF IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 06-10Z TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING THEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF IN RESPECT TO
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TO REACH THE COASTAL TAF SITE. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KLGB AND KLAX BETWEEN 14-15Z.
STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT ALL COASTAL SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY EVENING OR LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REACH VALLEY TAF
SITES BY 05-06Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF MVFR CIGS TO REACH THE
TERMINAL. 50 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 14-15Z AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR 12Z TAF. CIGS SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL BY 05Z THIS EVENING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HIGH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS COULD REACH KBUR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ650-655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW
WINDS DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...18/400 AM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181209
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
509 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN UPON AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO SCATTERING POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
LOW CENTERED APPROX 435 NM DUE WEST OF POINT ARENA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 181209
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
509 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A LEAST MIDDAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS FALLEN UPON AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO SCATTERING POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR TO VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:55 AM PDT THURSDAY...A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
LOW CENTERED APPROX 435 NM DUE WEST OF POINT ARENA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 181206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
506 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROLONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY AND TRAVEL NORTHWARD.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DIVING TROUGH.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE BROUGHT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF THE SEASON TO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES WHILE THE REDWOOD COAST AND INTERIOR RECEIVED UP TO
0.25-0.50 INCHES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS JUST UNDER 1 INCH ON
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ADDITIONAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA PROLONGING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
DOING A POOR JOB LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT AND STILL CONTAIN
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW BEFORE IT DIVES
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS IGNITE. ONE THING MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH IS
HIGHLIGHTING YOLLA BOLLY RANGE AS A REGION WHERE STORMS WILL IGNITE.
IN LATER RUNS MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE MENDOCINO COASTLINE HOWEVER THE BEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY
LOOK TO BE FARTHER EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDED TO MOST OF THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AND AS WELL AS THE MENDOCINO COASTLINE
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE. SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE
DIVING TROUGH. KML

LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A CUT OFF LOW THAT THEN DIVES
SOUTH...SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD. A SOUTHERLY
COASTAL STRATUS SURGE LOOKS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
A FLOW REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
GIVE COASTAL LOCATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS PROG ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. RMOP TOOL SHOWS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS STILL
AWAYS OUT AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL MONITOR
THE SITUATION. STP

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TONIGHT WINDS TURN OFFSHORE SO EXPECT THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY GOOD DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AROUND. MKK


&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. THESE WINDS AND THE WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE HAVE
CREATED A SOUTHERLY WAVE THAT HAS BUILT TO AROUND 6 TO 9 FT AT 8
SECONDS. THESE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. EXTENDED THE SCA IN 475 THROUGH 9AM AND ADDED
A SCA FOR SEAS IN ZONE 470 THROUGH 9AM AS WELL. TONIGHT THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO START MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE SEAS WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS
THERE AS WELL. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED OVER THE AREA BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW AND
DRIFT BACKS TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS BRINGS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE
AGAIN. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT AT THIS POINT.

THERE ARE TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT LONG PERIOD WAVES COMPLICATING THE
FORECAST. THE FIRST IS A SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 16 SECONDS AROUND 2
TO 3 FT. THIS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER WAVE
IS AROUND 3 FT AT 12 SECONDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE AROUND 7 FT AT 12
SECONDS. THIS DIMINISHES TO AROUND 4 FT AT 11 SECONDS BY MONDAY AND
THEN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MKK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROLONG THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. SEE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RIDGE TOPS MAY
OBSERVE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY FUELS INLAND COULD MAKE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
HELP STIFLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WERE
ISSUED SINCE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 181149
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
449 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal today with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&
.Discussion...
Upper level trough will be moving inland today. Radar imagery overnight
has shown shower activity in Shasta County near I-5 and westward
to the NorCal coastline. At 4 am, most of the showers were west and
north of our CWA due to a dry slot moving into our region. On
water vapor imagery, moisture offshore is digging slightly
southward and should impact our region later today. Once the
trough moves inland, models are indicating increased instability
over NorCal which will result in a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms across much of our CWA. In the morning
and early afternoon hours, instability looks best over the Coastal
and Sierra mountains north of I-80 including the adjacent
foothills into the valley. The WRF model echoes this by showing
shower activity across Lake County northward along the coastal
range...across Tehama & Shasta counties...and from Chico &
Oroville eastward into the Sierra. By late afternoon into early
evening, instability continues along the Sierra and spreads
southward of I-80, however, the WRF shows showers diminishing in
areal coverage. So have stuck with the forecast of having isolated
showers/t-storms south of I-80 and scattered showers/t-storms
north of I-80 today with showers limited to higher terrain for
tonight.

Daytime highs today will be cooler than normal. Our CWA will
generally range 5 to 15 degrees below average. This will translate to
valley highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with higher terrain
warming into the 60s and 70s. However, on Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will warm again to normal and above normal.

The King Fire is still likely to cause smoky conditions as it
doesn`t look like there is a high probability for heavy rain to
dampen this wildfire. With southwest to westerly winds this
morning, smoke will spread towards the Tahoe region again. On
Friday, winds should be northerly in the morning which will spread
smoke southward. (See Previous Discussion below)

Previous Discussion...The interesting thing for Thursday night and Friday
morning will be with the spread of the smoke from the King
Wildfire. Places in the southern motherlode that have had pretty
good air quality will have smoke spread over their area. The far
eastern sections of the Northern San Joaquin valley may also get
some smoke. The Sacramento region can also expect and increase in
smoke during that time period as well.

Saturday the low will shift over Southern California. Some
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms near the crest will
continue for areas south of Tahoe. The flow pattern will shift
again to onshore, upvalley and upslope. Temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

For Monday into Tuesday, weak ridging develops over our CWA which
will maintain dry weather with daytime highs near to above normal.
The extended models (ECMWF, GFS, and GEM) are in good agreement
that another trough will dig southward and swing into NorCal
Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs should dip below normal
starting on Wednesday. Have increased pops and lowered
temperatures to account for this cooler, wetter pattern.


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
Shasta County and Coastal Range and spreading SE over the
northern/Central Sac valley, northeast foothills, and Sierra by
this morning. Local SWerly sfc gusts up to 30 to 45 kts over
higher mountain peaks today, decreasing by this evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 181102
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY....THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN LOCAL DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER DEEP...AND CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS
OF SLO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...BUT LOW CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WERE ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. TODAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 10 TO
15 DEGREES FROM THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH EVEN 90 DEGREES TODAY. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS INTO THE
ANTELOPE VLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ650-655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW
WINDS DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...18/400 AM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 181102
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
329 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY....THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND EVEN LOCAL DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER IS RATHER DEEP...AND CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR VLYS
OF SLO COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SKIES WERE CLEAR...BUT LOW CLOUDS
OFF THE COAST WERE ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW
NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. TODAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS DOWN 10 TO
15 DEGREES FROM THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WED. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH EVEN 90 DEGREES TODAY. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS INTO THE
ANTELOPE VLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SRN END OF A
WEAKENING SFC FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY FRI MORNING.
EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN
ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
SLOPES. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS
S OF PT CONCEPTION...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN THE
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LINGER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION FRI. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD MAKE CLEARING
SLOW ON FRI. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A
FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...SO
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AGAIN ON SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA SUNDAY. THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT AS
IT MOVES OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE FASTER AND BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...SO EXPECT LESS INLAND EXTENT
OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STATUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON MON...BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WEAK
FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUE...SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME COOLING MAY TAKE
PLACE ON WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FORCED EWD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...18/400 AM

OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PZZ673-676
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PZZ650-655 TODAY. INITIALLY...PZZ650 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION AND INCREASED GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE PZZ655 WILL SEE W TO NW
WINDS DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT. 70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...18/400 AM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 181049
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 181049
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN
COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ESPECIALLY INLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROF OFF THE
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDE SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ONSHORE IN BOUNDARY LAYER SW FLOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC AREAS IN SW FLOW IN THE
NORTH BAY AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
UNDER A QUARTER INCH WITH RAIN SHADOWED AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL. LOOK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING WHILE MOST AREAS GET VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL.

BASED ON NAM PROJECTED SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH BREAK WELL
OFFSHORE AT TIME. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE...NORTH BAY COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPES
BARELY EXCEED 200J THIS AFTERNOON SO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SONOMA COUNTY.
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER LATE
THIS MORNING.

MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF DAMP OR WET ROADS FROM
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANY MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES COULD PRODUCE
SLICK CONDITIONS SINCE ITS BEEN SO LONG SINCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED.

THE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY...DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO RESPOND WITH THE CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW REFLECTION REMAINING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELIEVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEEKEND SO PRIMARY WARMING WILL BE INLAND AND ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTH BAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER SLOPING DEEPER TOWARD THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LOW GETS EJECTED INLAND LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE COAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE STATE TOWARD MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE COULD BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY...BUT TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KHNX 181042
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
342 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST. WV IMAGERY AND GOES
HIGH DENSITY WINDS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR 41N/127W WHICH IS TAKING AIM AT THE
NORCAL COAST. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A VERY NOTICABLE COOLING TREND TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OVER THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY OFF THE SOCAL COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWFA...BUT IF ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER LOW ON SATRUDAY
WHILE IT IS OFF THE SOCAL COAST...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY THEN RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
NOTICABLE RISES IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AS A DRY
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INLAND. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UPWARD TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND ARE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED BY THE ECWMF AND
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 181042
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
342 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER SIERRAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST. WV IMAGERY AND GOES
HIGH DENSITY WINDS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR 41N/127W WHICH IS TAKING AIM AT THE
NORCAL COAST. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A VERY NOTICABLE COOLING TREND TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE FOR CONVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE 00Z AND 06Z WRF RUNS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OVER THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN STATIONARY OFF THE SOCAL COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND CROSS OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWFA...BUT IF ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER LOW ON SATRUDAY
WHILE IT IS OFF THE SOCAL COAST...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY THEN RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
NOTICABLE RISES IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AS A DRY
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INLAND. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UPWARD TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH IT AND
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT A SHARP COOLING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND ARE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED BY THE ECWMF AND
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978
KFAT 09-20      104:1939     73:2007     73:1939     46:1978

KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
KBFL 09-20      104:1899     73:2007     70:1974     38:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 181035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AS
THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHWEST NV WITH DEPARTING JET
STREAK, UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE BETTER
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY START IN NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV,
THEN SHIFT TO JUST EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY AND INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL NV BASIN BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOCATION OF DEFORMATION ZONE COULD
AFFECT WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP, SO WE KEPT AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH THEN REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE INSTABILITY AND DEFORMATION ZONE SOUTH OF MONO
AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN VARIANCE IN THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, WE WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

AS THE LOW EJECTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME MOISTURE MAY BE
THROWN BACK INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NV. WHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50, SOME OF THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF FAVORED
WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE EVEN AS FAR WEST AS RENO BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

AS FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE, AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDED THE
THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN WHERE VISIBILITY HAS RANGED FROM 3-6
MILES. SMOKE HAD LARGELY DISPERSED AROUND RENO AND TRUCKEE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT JUST RETURNED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR FROM A
FLARE-UP WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MOST OF THIS SMOKE
AND HAZE SHOULD DISPERSE BY LATE MORNING AS IT DID YESTERDAY. A
SMALLER AREA OF SMOKE CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM THE KING FIRE SITE
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGES.

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SMOKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS BETTER WEST OF THE CREST AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP AS MUCH TODAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING, THEN
BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE
SURGE IN FIRE FIGHTING PERSONNEL AND RESOURCES WHICH HAVE ARRIVED
ON SITE. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SMOKE OR HAZE AFTER
18Z, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF A LARGE FLARE-UP OCCURS AGAIN
TODAY. OVERALL WE WOULD EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND CONCENTRATION OF
SMOKE OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE FROM IMPACTING
ANY AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S FOR WESTERN NV, AND BELOW 80 IN
NORTHEAST CA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THRU
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST POPS/WX GIVEN GENERAL CONTINUITY IN TRACK OF LOW
AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH AND EVEN HAS WRAP AROUND
BAND SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NV AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 SAT NIGHT-
SUN. THIS IS THE SECOND ECMWF RUN TO SHOW THIS AND IT IS WORTH
WATCHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE IF IT CONTINUES WITH ITS IDEA
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A TREND IN ITS FAVOR. FOR NOW, WE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 SUNDAY IN SYNC WITH THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE FCST
SAT-SAT NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN EAST OF
AREA TUESDAY FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE FALL AS WE HEAD INTO WED-THU AS MODELS
ARE LATCHING ON TO A COOLER TROUGH. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION, AS TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
TROUGH IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE ECMWF THIS MORNING IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS/GEM AND THUS SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF
IS ALSO WETTER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEREFORE WE HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AFTER A
WARM START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO 0 C.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST SO TEMPERATURES
WERE COOLED A BIT WEDNESDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY IN THE
PRELIMINARY DAY 8 GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE TROUGH
FOR TUES-WED. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH A GENERAL WEST
TO NORTHWEST SFC FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR ONE MORE DAY OF SMOKE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NV, PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, A LOT WILL DEPEND ON FIRE ACTIVITY AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY COULD HELP SOME. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MEDIUM ON THE SMOKE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AS WE WATCH FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION IS LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF SHORT DURATION IMPACT ON AREA TERMINALS.
A GENERAL EAST FLOW WILL CLEAR SMOKE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FOR FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 181035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AS
THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHWEST NV WITH DEPARTING JET
STREAK, UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE BETTER
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY START IN NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV,
THEN SHIFT TO JUST EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY AND INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL NV BASIN BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOCATION OF DEFORMATION ZONE COULD
AFFECT WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP, SO WE KEPT AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH THEN REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE INSTABILITY AND DEFORMATION ZONE SOUTH OF MONO
AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN VARIANCE IN THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, WE WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

AS THE LOW EJECTS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME MOISTURE MAY BE
THROWN BACK INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NV. WHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50, SOME OF THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF FAVORED
WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE EVEN AS FAR WEST AS RENO BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

AS FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE, AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDED THE
THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN WHERE VISIBILITY HAS RANGED FROM 3-6
MILES. SMOKE HAD LARGELY DISPERSED AROUND RENO AND TRUCKEE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT JUST RETURNED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR FROM A
FLARE-UP WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. MOST OF THIS SMOKE
AND HAZE SHOULD DISPERSE BY LATE MORNING AS IT DID YESTERDAY. A
SMALLER AREA OF SMOKE CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM THE KING FIRE SITE
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGES.

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SMOKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS BETTER WEST OF THE CREST AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP AS MUCH TODAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING, THEN
BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE
SURGE IN FIRE FIGHTING PERSONNEL AND RESOURCES WHICH HAVE ARRIVED
ON SITE. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SMOKE OR HAZE AFTER
18Z, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF A LARGE FLARE-UP OCCURS AGAIN
TODAY. OVERALL WE WOULD EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND CONCENTRATION OF
SMOKE OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE FROM IMPACTING
ANY AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S FOR WESTERN NV, AND BELOW 80 IN
NORTHEAST CA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED THRU
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH NO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST POPS/WX GIVEN GENERAL CONTINUITY IN TRACK OF LOW
AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH AND EVEN HAS WRAP AROUND
BAND SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NV AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 SAT NIGHT-
SUN. THIS IS THE SECOND ECMWF RUN TO SHOW THIS AND IT IS WORTH
WATCHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE IF IT CONTINUES WITH ITS IDEA
AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A TREND IN ITS FAVOR. FOR NOW, WE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 SUNDAY IN SYNC WITH THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE FCST
SAT-SAT NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN EAST OF
AREA TUESDAY FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE FALL AS WE HEAD INTO WED-THU AS MODELS
ARE LATCHING ON TO A COOLER TROUGH. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION, AS TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
TROUGH IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE ECMWF THIS MORNING IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS/GEM AND THUS SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF
IS ALSO WETTER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THEREFORE WE HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AFTER A
WARM START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS 700 MB TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO 0 C.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST SO TEMPERATURES
WERE COOLED A BIT WEDNESDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY IN THE
PRELIMINARY DAY 8 GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE TROUGH
FOR TUES-WED. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH A GENERAL WEST
TO NORTHWEST SFC FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT CONTINUING SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL FAVOR ONE MORE DAY OF SMOKE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NV, PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, A LOT WILL DEPEND ON FIRE ACTIVITY AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY COULD HELP SOME. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MEDIUM ON THE SMOKE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AS WE WATCH FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION IS LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF SHORT DURATION IMPACT ON AREA TERMINALS.
A GENERAL EAST FLOW WILL CLEAR SMOKE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FOR FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS66 KSGX 180946
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
245 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST WAS MAKING A SERIOUS PUSH INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AT THE COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT THE TREND IS
CLEAR AND UNAVOIDABLE. THE HEAT WAVE IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR WILL
FADE AS WE GET BACK TO NORMAL IN A HURRY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE AN EARLY RUN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME
DECENT WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. THE BIG CHANGE
COMES COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEARING DOWN THE WEST COAST.
ON FRIDAY THIS THING WILL CUT OFF AND CIRCULATE IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND BY EXTENDING
COASTAL CLOUDS INTO THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SURGE RELAXES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
STILL MAKE IT INTO SOME INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY AND ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW SURROUNDING THIS LOW COULD DRAW
A WISP OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS VERY SLIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOME WARMER
WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS PREVIOUSLY HAD A MONSTER RIDGE FORMING
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT RECENT RUNS ARE GAINING
CONSISTENCY IN A TROUGH SOLUTION AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THAT
WOULD MEAN COOLER WEATHER AND A STRONGER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500
FT MSL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO LOCALLY
BKN STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND BY 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
245 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 180946
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
245 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS OFF
THE COAST WAS MAKING A SERIOUS PUSH INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AT THE COAST BY SUNRISE...BUT THE TREND IS
CLEAR AND UNAVOIDABLE. THE HEAT WAVE IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR WILL
FADE AS WE GET BACK TO NORMAL IN A HURRY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE AN EARLY RUN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME
DECENT WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. THE BIG CHANGE
COMES COURTESY OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEARING DOWN THE WEST COAST.
ON FRIDAY THIS THING WILL CUT OFF AND CIRCULATE IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL RESPOND BY EXTENDING
COASTAL CLOUDS INTO THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SURGE RELAXES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
STILL MAKE IT INTO SOME INLAND VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY AND ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW SURROUNDING THIS LOW COULD DRAW
A WISP OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE IS VERY SLIGHT. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SOME WARMER
WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS PREVIOUSLY HAD A MONSTER RIDGE FORMING
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT RECENT RUNS ARE GAINING
CONSISTENCY IN A TROUGH SOLUTION AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THAT
WOULD MEAN COOLER WEATHER AND A STRONGER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1200-1500
FT MSL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO LOCALLY
BKN STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND BY 00Z...SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
BASES WILL BE AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2800 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...LOCAL WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
245 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TODAY.
SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS LIKELY ON EXPOSED
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. SWELL AND SURF WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 180920 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 180919
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 180919
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 180919
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 180919
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST THU SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IS
NOW SHIFTING WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOULD BE A PRETTY TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORMING MAINLY TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SCATTERED
-SHRA ACROSS THE METRO AND I WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH
APPROX 01Z IN ALL PHOENIX TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS66 KMTR 180508
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ALSO IN COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 130W THIS EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING....PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH
OF POINT ARENA AND EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EUREKA. THE
FRONT HAS SINCE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT...BUT LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS OCCIDENTAL AND SANTA ROSA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NAM OUTPUT IN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTO ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE NAM HAD INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOW NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH
THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY ABOUT 8 DEG C BY TOMORROW AND
SO WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FIRST SINKS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

DURING PAST FEW DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING
A RATHER ROBUST WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180508
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ALSO IN COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 130W THIS EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING....PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH
OF POINT ARENA AND EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EUREKA. THE
FRONT HAS SINCE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT...BUT LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS OCCIDENTAL AND SANTA ROSA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NAM OUTPUT IN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTO ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE NAM HAD INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOW NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH
THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY ABOUT 8 DEG C BY TOMORROW AND
SO WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FIRST SINKS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

DURING PAST FEW DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING
A RATHER ROBUST WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180508
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ALSO IN COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 130W THIS EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING....PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH
OF POINT ARENA AND EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EUREKA. THE
FRONT HAS SINCE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT...BUT LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS OCCIDENTAL AND SANTA ROSA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NAM OUTPUT IN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTO ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE NAM HAD INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOW NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH
THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY ABOUT 8 DEG C BY TOMORROW AND
SO WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FIRST SINKS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

DURING PAST FEW DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING
A RATHER ROBUST WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180508
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1008 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ALSO IN COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 130W THIS EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING....PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH
OF POINT ARENA AND EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EUREKA. THE
FRONT HAS SINCE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT...BUT LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS OCCIDENTAL AND SANTA ROSA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NAM OUTPUT IN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTO ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE NAM HAD INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOW NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH
THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY ABOUT 8 DEG C BY TOMORROW AND
SO WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FIRST SINKS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

DURING PAST FEW DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING
A RATHER ROBUST WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN...MOSTLY LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT DRIZZLE REPORTED AT KSFO NOW. THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
RAIN LATE TONIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 180442
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
942 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal Thursday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&
.Discussion...
The low has spread some light rain along the northern coastal
range this evening. As it transitions inland late tonight and early
morning the amount of chances of light showers will develop over
the remainder of the interior. Unfortunately the models are not
indicating any precipitation over the Kings wildfire area again
this evening but do show some light amounts of precipitation over
the far northern fires in California. Instability looks the greatest
Thursday afternoon over the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms
may be possible as the system moves through with scattered
light showers...mainly for the mountains but some local showers
and sprinkles will be possible for the valley. The best chance
within the valley will be late tonight and early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will be cooler. Instability over the valley does not
look to good with the evening model runs for producing
thunderstorms.

The center of the low will move along the central coast for
Friday. Instability looks greatest over the sierra Nevada
mountains at this time. This might bring a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms south of Tahoe for the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be shifting northerly and temperatures
in the valley will be rebounding closer to seasonal normals.

The interesting thing for Thursday night and Friday morning will
be with the spread of the smoke from the King Wildfire. Places in
the southern motherlode that have had pretty good air quality will
have smoke spread over their area. The far eastern sections of the
Northern San Joaquin valley may also get some smoke. The
Sacramento region can also expect and increase in smoke during
that time period as well.

Saturday the low will shift over Southern California. Some
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms near the crest will
continue for areas south of Tahoe. The flow pattern will shift
again to onshore, upvalley and upslope. Temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Interesting long term forecast towards mid week. Early in the week
no strong synoptic features in place but toward day 7 and 8...both
ECMWF and GFS are now bringing in a large trough into Pacific
Northwest. ECMWF is wetter and more agressive at this point. Given
the better agreement of the operational models at this point seems
appropriate to insert to have at least a 20 percent chance of
moisture...mostly in northern zones...but still alot of
uncertainity with this system...thus pops closer to climotology
make more sense than dry. Rasch


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
western Shasta County and Coastal range and spreading SE over
valley and into Sierra late tonight and Thu morning. Local SWerly surface
wind gusts up to 35 to 45 kts possible over higher mountain peaks
overnight.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 180419
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
919 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ALSO IN COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 130W THIS EVENING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING....PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NORTH
OF POINT ARENA AND EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EUREKA. THE
FRONT HAS SINCE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT...BUT LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS OCCIDENTAL AND SANTA ROSA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NAM OUTPUT IN SPREADING
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTO ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE NAM HAD INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOW NOW THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH
THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
THURSDAY EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY ABOUT 8 DEG C BY TOMORROW AND
SO WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FIRST SINKS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

DURING PAST FEW DAYS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING
A RATHER ROBUST WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BUT THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AREA ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUALALA. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL PATCH OR
TWO OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT IN GENERAL THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (ERODING AIR MASS
STABILITY) AND A PICK UP IN SURFACE WINDS AND MIXING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
IS CENTERED 350 MILES WEST OF UKIAH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 180407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...THERE WERE SOME GUSTY W WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS DEVELOPED
IN THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND S SBA COAST...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WAS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP S OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST BEFORE MOVING UP THE COAST AND INLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE NIGHT.

A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL MOVE INTO NRN
AND CENTRAL CA ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST
SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE AND
INLAND SOME OVER SWRN CA ON SAT. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AFFECT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE COAST AND VLYS THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO
BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW
AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MTNS BY SAT...BUT
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT AS THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR THE
MOST PART. A LARGE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS...AS HIGHS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU THRU SAT...WITH THE COOLER OF THE THREE DAYS ON FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 PM
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WEST TO NW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650-655 WITH SHORT PERIOD
SEAS BUILDING DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 PM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS CONTINUE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS
FROM A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT STORMS. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED
FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 180407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...THERE WERE SOME GUSTY W WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS DEVELOPED
IN THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND S SBA COAST...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST THRU MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WAS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP S OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE L.A.
COUNTY COAST BEFORE MOVING UP THE COAST AND INLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE NIGHT.

A RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL MOVE INTO NRN
AND CENTRAL CA ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST THU NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST
SW OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRI. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD DRIFT NE AND
INLAND SOME OVER SWRN CA ON SAT. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AFFECT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WITH PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND VLYS NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE COAST AND VLYS THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE MAY ALSO
BE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. A FEW
AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MTNS BY SAT...BUT
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT AS THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR THE
MOST PART. A LARGE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS...AS HIGHS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THU THRU SAT...WITH THE COOLER OF THE THREE DAYS ON FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 PM
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WEST TO NW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650-655 WITH SHORT PERIOD
SEAS BUILDING DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...AND THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 PM
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS CONTINUE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS
FROM A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT STORMS. THE ELEVATED SURF THAT RESULTED
FROM THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR HIGHER SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. THE SURF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KSGX 180400
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL RETURN AND MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRY AND
WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS TODAY. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN WAS UNDERNEATH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND RECORDED 0.54" OF RAIN. A 24 HOUR PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBSITE...AS IS A MAP WITH 48 HOURS RAIN
TOTALS. THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND A CAPPING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 15000 FEET AS SEEN ON THE
00Z SOUNDING. 500 MB NVA ALSO SUPPRESSED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE HEAT ABATED TODAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 4-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WHILE IT WAS
"COOLER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE...IT WAS STILL HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S...BEACH COMMUNITIES EXCEPTED. THE NATIONS HOT
SPOTS WERE PALM SPRINGS AND THERMAL WITH A HIGH OF 103 AT BOTH
SITES.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NORCAL COAST MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS SPREADING DEEP INTO
THE VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER PT
CONCEPTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A VORTICITY CENTER
ACROSS SOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ALOFT.
500 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C AND LI`S FALL TO NEAR 0 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT FEEL THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
180330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
10Z. SOME BKN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BASES WILL MOSTLY BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1500 TO 2000 FT MSL. MOST VIS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI TONIGHT/THU. SCT WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL BKN
STRATUS IS LIKELY AFTER 17Z THU...WITH STRATUS CHANCES GREATER THU
EVENING WITH BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 2000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL OCCUR ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES...WITH HIGHEST
SURF IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY
AND DIMINISH THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL







000
FXUS65 KPSR 180350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE PURVIEW OF THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SO THEIR FINAL ADVISORY ON THE STORM WAS
JUST ISSUED 800PM MST/1100 EDT. ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON THE STORMS AND
MORE-SO IT`S IMPACTS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER. WPC HAS THE CIRCULATION CENTER POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN
AZ BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WHILE WE HAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...IT WAS SPOTTY AND RATHER
LOCALIZED IN TERMS OF IMPACTS HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND LATEST HI-
RES/SYNOPTIC MODEL FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
THURSDAY...WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ DESERTS THIS EVENING. FOOTHILL/HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST EAST
OF PHOENIX ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRC WINDS OF ODILE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENT WITH THE TERRAIN. 18/00Z
KPSR WEATHER BALLOON STILL SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
TO MID ATMO LAYERS WITH A PWAT OF 1.83 INCHES THIS EVENING...STILL 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. AS
SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY
EVENING FOR AZZ024.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAKER SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED JUST
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS HOLDING OVER THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. MORE BROAD CLOUD SHIELD SPANS FROM EAST OF
PHOENIX AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO NM WHERE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR THE REST
OF THIS EVENING...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A REMOTE POP-UP
SHOWER COULD DEVELOP BACK AROUND THE ODILE CIRCULATION...WARRANTING
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUD WORDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS OUT
WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS ANY MOISTURE IN PLAY FROM ODILE FURTHER
REMOVES ITSELF FROM THE AREA AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER POP-UP IN THE STILL TROPICAL
MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO
WARRANT VCSH IN TAFS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8KFT AND POSSIBLY A BIT THICKER ABOVE 15KFT. BY
THURSDAY MIDDAY...WEST WINDS COULD FINALLY SET INTO THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE LINGERING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE DESERT SURFACE
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
DRYING FROM THE WEST COULD INFLUENCE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SO
WILL COVER WITH VCSH IN 06Z TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

PARTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 6KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP SOUTHERLY HEADINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE...WITH SPEED UP TO
10KTS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 180350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE TRANSITIONED OUT OF THE PURVIEW OF THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SO THEIR FINAL ADVISORY ON THE STORM WAS
JUST ISSUED 800PM MST/1100 EDT. ANY FURTHER UPDATES ON THE STORMS AND
MORE-SO IT`S IMPACTS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER. WPC HAS THE CIRCULATION CENTER POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHEASTERN
AZ BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WHILE WE HAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...IT WAS SPOTTY AND RATHER
LOCALIZED IN TERMS OF IMPACTS HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND LATEST HI-
RES/SYNOPTIC MODEL FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING DURING DAYTIME HEATING
THURSDAY...WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ DESERTS THIS EVENING. FOOTHILL/HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST EAST
OF PHOENIX ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRC WINDS OF ODILE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENT WITH THE TERRAIN. 18/00Z
KPSR WEATHER BALLOON STILL SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER
TO MID ATMO LAYERS WITH A PWAT OF 1.83 INCHES THIS EVENING...STILL 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. AS
SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EARLY
EVENING FOR AZZ024.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAKER SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED JUST
AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS HOLDING OVER THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. MORE BROAD CLOUD SHIELD SPANS FROM EAST OF
PHOENIX AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO NM WHERE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FOR THE REST
OF THIS EVENING...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A REMOTE POP-UP
SHOWER COULD DEVELOP BACK AROUND THE ODILE CIRCULATION...WARRANTING
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUD WORDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS OUT
WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS ANY MOISTURE IN PLAY FROM ODILE FURTHER
REMOVES ITSELF FROM THE AREA AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE THICKER CLOUD DECKS HAVE CLEARED EAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER POP-UP IN THE STILL TROPICAL
MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO
WARRANT VCSH IN TAFS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8KFT AND POSSIBLY A BIT THICKER ABOVE 15KFT. BY
THURSDAY MIDDAY...WEST WINDS COULD FINALLY SET INTO THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE LINGERING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE DESERT SURFACE
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.
DRYING FROM THE WEST COULD INFLUENCE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SO
WILL COVER WITH VCSH IN 06Z TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

PARTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 6KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PICKING UP SOUTHERLY HEADINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE...WITH SPEED UP TO
10KTS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KREV 180302
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
802 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE.
PYRAMID LAKE CLOSES AT SUNSET AND WE DO NOT TYPICALLY RUN
ADVISORIES PAST ITS CLOSURE...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SUTCLIFFE
SHOW A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY
ON LAKE TAHOE...ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA...EAST OF A
LOVELOCK TO HAWTHORNE LINE. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING AND
FAIRLY LOW TOPPED. THE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION IS
QUITE SUBTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT WAS PICKED UP BY CURRENT
NUMERICAL MODELS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPROACH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA
MAY DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE HAS BECOME MUCH THICKER IN THE
RENO/SPARKS AREA THIS EVENING AS WEST WINDS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED
THE SMOKE THIS WAY. RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE HAS
DECREASED A BIT IN THE TRUCKEE AREA BUT WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SMOKE
IN THE TAHOE-DONNER AREA...SO WILL NOT REMOVE FROM THAT AREA
TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR RETURNS PLUME IS STILL VERY ACTIVE SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT SMOKE WILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE TRANSPORT
FROM THE KING FIRE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING
THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 2-5 MILES AND
DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH ACROSS
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL COOL BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. A CLOSED LOW SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE. THE 12Z EC IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND FROM ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO HAVE
LARGELY IGNORED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE KEEPING THAT
SAME HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW A DEEP
TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE TROUGH SOLUTION, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DJ

AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AROUND 30-35
KTS WITH RIDGES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 KTS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
TURBULENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. THE LARGE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE KING FIRE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL EL DORADO
COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN
NEVADA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST, SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN POUR INTO THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 TO 5 MILES. THE
HARDEST HIT TERMINALS WILL BE KTRK AND KRNO WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM 3-4 PM UNTIL 8-9 PM.

A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A KTRK-GERLACH
LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST,
SHIFTING THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH. THE SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
KRNO, KCXP, KTVL, AND KTRK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE SMOKE PLUME INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 180302
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
802 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE.
PYRAMID LAKE CLOSES AT SUNSET AND WE DO NOT TYPICALLY RUN
ADVISORIES PAST ITS CLOSURE...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SUTCLIFFE
SHOW A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY
ON LAKE TAHOE...ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA...EAST OF A
LOVELOCK TO HAWTHORNE LINE. STORMS HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING AND
FAIRLY LOW TOPPED. THE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION IS
QUITE SUBTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT WAS PICKED UP BY CURRENT
NUMERICAL MODELS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPROACH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA
MAY DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE HAS BECOME MUCH THICKER IN THE
RENO/SPARKS AREA THIS EVENING AS WEST WINDS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED
THE SMOKE THIS WAY. RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE HAS
DECREASED A BIT IN THE TRUCKEE AREA BUT WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SMOKE
IN THE TAHOE-DONNER AREA...SO WILL NOT REMOVE FROM THAT AREA
TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR RETURNS PLUME IS STILL VERY ACTIVE SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT SMOKE WILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE TRANSPORT
FROM THE KING FIRE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING
THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 2-5 MILES AND
DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH ACROSS
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL COOL BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. A CLOSED LOW SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE. THE 12Z EC IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND FROM ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO HAVE
LARGELY IGNORED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE KEEPING THAT
SAME HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW A DEEP
TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE TROUGH SOLUTION, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DJ

AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AROUND 30-35
KTS WITH RIDGES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 KTS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
TURBULENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. THE LARGE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE KING FIRE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL EL DORADO
COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN
NEVADA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST, SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN POUR INTO THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 TO 5 MILES. THE
HARDEST HIT TERMINALS WILL BE KTRK AND KRNO WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM 3-4 PM UNTIL 8-9 PM.

A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A KTRK-GERLACH
LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST,
SHIFTING THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH. THE SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
KRNO, KCXP, KTVL, AND KTRK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE SMOKE PLUME INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
641 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AREA ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUALALA. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL PATCH OR
TWO OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT IN GENERAL THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (ERODING AIR MASS
STABILITY) AND A PICK UP IN SURFACE WINDS AND MIXING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A 997
MB LOW IS CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT SOUTH FACING BEACHES THRU 5 AM
  THURSDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
641 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AREA ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUALALA. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL PATCH OR
TWO OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT IN GENERAL THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (ERODING AIR MASS
STABILITY) AND A PICK UP IN SURFACE WINDS AND MIXING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A 997
MB LOW IS CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT SOUTH FACING BEACHES THRU 5 AM
  THURSDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
641 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AREA ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUALALA. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL PATCH OR
TWO OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT IN GENERAL THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (ERODING AIR MASS
STABILITY) AND A PICK UP IN SURFACE WINDS AND MIXING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A 997
MB LOW IS CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT SOUTH FACING BEACHES THRU 5 AM
  THURSDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 180141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
641 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 6:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WITH INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AREA ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT
RAIN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUALALA. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL PATCH OR
TWO OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT IN GENERAL THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (ERODING AIR MASS
STABILITY) AND A PICK UP IN SURFACE WINDS AND MIXING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING.
THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR HOLDING TOGETHER SO FAR BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW. CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 6:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A 997
MB LOW IS CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT SOUTH FACING BEACHES THRU 5 AM
  THURSDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI/CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 180018 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 180018 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL













000
FXUS66 KSGX 180017 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 180017 AAB
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
520 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 180004 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/2355Z...GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THU FOR
ALL THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THESE AIRFIELDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONSET
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RANGE FROM 03Z THIS EVENING AT KSMX TO 17Z THU AT
KSBA...ALTHO THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AT KSBA.
ALSO...THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THU
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WHICH MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH THE THU AFTERNOON AT KOXR...KLAX
AND KLGB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT AT KSBA
DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. FOR KPMD AND KWJF...HI
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THU...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY THU AFTERNOON.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THU EVENING. THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF
PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
SCATTER OUT AT ALL ON THU.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THE
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z THEN LINGER THRU
22Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
BE OFF PLUS/MINUS 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KEKA 172310
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MENDOCINO COAST AS A
VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO INTERIOR REGIONS OF MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN
TRINITY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THU)...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
NW CAL WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LOW IS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL
BE OFFSHORE WITH A FEW LIMPING ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE LOW TRANSITS THE AREA WITH A VORT MAX
SWEEPING AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BRINGING A BULLS EYE OF PRECIP TO
COASTAL MENDOCINO THU MORNING. THIS VORT MAX MAY PROVE TO BE
VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND IT WILL TAKE ITS
INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY TRIGGER OFF THE MOUNTAINS
OF MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST. MODELS HAVE ONLY BEGUN TO PICK UP ON
THIS SOLUTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TO THE NORTH...DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT WILL SEE THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING THEN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, DUE TO LIGHTNING, DRY FUELS, AND FORECASTED LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A CUT OFF LOW THAT THEN DIVES
SOUTH...SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD. A SOUTHERLY
COASTAL STRATUS SURGE LOOKS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
A FLOW REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
GIVE COASTAL LOCATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS PROG ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. RMOP TOOL SHOWS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS STILL
AWAYS OUT AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL MONITOR
THE SITUATION. STP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TEMPORARY
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO REDUCEC VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS
INCREASED THE SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PRPAGATES EASTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 172310
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MENDOCINO COAST AS A
VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO INTERIOR REGIONS OF MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN
TRINITY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THU)...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
NW CAL WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LOW IS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL
BE OFFSHORE WITH A FEW LIMPING ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE LOW TRANSITS THE AREA WITH A VORT MAX
SWEEPING AROUND ITS SOUTH SIDE BRINGING A BULLS EYE OF PRECIP TO
COASTAL MENDOCINO THU MORNING. THIS VORT MAX MAY PROVE TO BE
VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND IT WILL TAKE ITS
INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY TRIGGER OFF THE MOUNTAINS
OF MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST. MODELS HAVE ONLY BEGUN TO PICK UP ON
THIS SOLUTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TO THE NORTH...DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT WILL SEE THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING THEN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, DUE TO LIGHTNING, DRY FUELS, AND FORECASTED LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A CUT OFF LOW THAT THEN DIVES
SOUTH...SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD. A SOUTHERLY
COASTAL STRATUS SURGE LOOKS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
A FLOW REVERSAL OVER THE WATERS. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
GIVE COASTAL LOCATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS PROG ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. RMOP TOOL SHOWS LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS STILL
AWAYS OUT AND THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL MONITOR
THE SITUATION. STP

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TEMPORARY
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO REDUCEC VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS
INCREASED THE SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INCREASING THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PRPAGATES EASTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 172218
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO THE OUTER WATERS

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE
LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AT 1.73 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE...WITH 1232 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED
INDEX OF -2.1. CURRENTLY...THE GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE
DESERTS...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE IS ON THE
DECREASE...COMPARED TO THE 2 INCH READINGS WE HAD YESTERDAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 600 MB. THUS...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY...BUT
THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OVER THE AREA...SO IT IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
WHEN THERE WAS 2000-3000 J/KG. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME STRONG
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT HOWEVER SHOULD BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. MODEL INDICATED 700-500 MB WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH INCREASES THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8
PM FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN RATHER HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS OUR OFFICE HAS A LOW OF ONLY 80
DEGREES THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING
OCCURRING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
NEAR IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS THURSDAY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL/MAXWELL









000
FXUS66 KHNX 172214
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS KEPT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. THERE IS STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT NEAR EDWARDS AFB OR OVER THE
CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR YOSEMITE IN THE MORNING AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MAINLY NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH HIGHS DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES
THURSDAY...BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS AGREE THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PREVENT THE RIDGE
FROM BECOMING STRONG. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-17      105:1979     73:1950     74:1984     48:1965
KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978

KBFL 09-17      108:1913     74:1993     76:1979     45:1915
KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 172150 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT ARE NOW THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN SONORA MEXICO. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. OVER OUR AREA...WELL TO THE NORTH OF ODILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE AROUND 11 AM...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FOCUSED OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. VERY MOIST AIR WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WHILE SOME AIRMASS INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF MLCAPE
OF 500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND 1000 J/KG OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS AIDING IN THE SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST AIR...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THE WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFFECTING MARICOPA COUNTY. HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW
THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. SO THINKING IS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO TWO INCHES. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP LA PAZ COUNTY FROM THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS SUBSIDENCE IS STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THAT DOESN/T MEAN LA PAZ COUNTY
INCLUDING AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE DEVOID OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT THINKING IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE EVENTUALLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AREAS. OUR FORECAST FOR THIS AREA HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN STARTING BY TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY INTO THE FOUR PEAKS AREA WHILE TWO TO
THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. AS THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM MARICOPA
COUNTY EASTWARD STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 02Z THU...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REGION. A FEW
LOW TOPPED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM WILL DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SO HUMID THAT ISOLD SHWRS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. CIGS IN RAINFALL COULD FALL TO BETWEEN 4
AND THSD AGL...WITH VSBYS NEAR 5 MILES. GENERALLY LGT E TO SE WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR SHWRS. FROM 02Z THU TO 12Z THU...SHWRS ENDING. CIGS
LIFTING AND BECOMING SCT-BKN 8-10 THSD AGL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 12Z THU...SCT-BKN CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 9
KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ022>024-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 172150 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT ARE NOW THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN SONORA MEXICO. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. OVER OUR AREA...WELL TO THE NORTH OF ODILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE AROUND 11 AM...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FOCUSED OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. VERY MOIST AIR WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WHILE SOME AIRMASS INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF MLCAPE
OF 500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND 1000 J/KG OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS AIDING IN THE SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST AIR...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THE WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFFECTING MARICOPA COUNTY. HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW
THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. SO THINKING IS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO TWO INCHES. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP LA PAZ COUNTY FROM THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS SUBSIDENCE IS STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THAT DOESN/T MEAN LA PAZ COUNTY
INCLUDING AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE DEVOID OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT THINKING IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE EVENTUALLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AREAS. OUR FORECAST FOR THIS AREA HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN STARTING BY TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY INTO THE FOUR PEAKS AREA WHILE TWO TO
THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. AS THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM MARICOPA
COUNTY EASTWARD STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 02Z THU...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REGION. A FEW
LOW TOPPED SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM WILL DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SO HUMID THAT ISOLD SHWRS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. CIGS IN RAINFALL COULD FALL TO BETWEEN 4
AND THSD AGL...WITH VSBYS NEAR 5 MILES. GENERALLY LGT E TO SE WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR SHWRS. FROM 02Z THU TO 12Z THU...SHWRS ENDING. CIGS
LIFTING AND BECOMING SCT-BKN 8-10 THSD AGL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 12Z THU...SCT-BKN CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 9
KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ022>024-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ














000
FXUS65 KPSR 172146
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
246 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS ODILE...WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT ARE NOW THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN SONORA MEXICO. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. OVER OUR AREA...WELL TO THE NORTH OF ODILE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE AROUND 11 AM...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FOCUSED OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. VERY MOIST AIR WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WHILE SOME AIRMASS INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF MLCAPE
OF 500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND 1000 J/KG OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS AIDING IN THE SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DUE TO THE VERY
MOIST AIR...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THE WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFFECTING MARICOPA COUNTY. HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW
THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. SO THINKING IS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO TWO INCHES. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP LA PAZ COUNTY FROM THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS SUBSIDENCE IS STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THAT DOESN/T MEAN LA PAZ COUNTY
INCLUDING AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE DEVOID OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT THINKING IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHOULD
NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE EVENTUALLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AREAS. OUR FORECAST FOR THIS AREA HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH AS WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN STARTING BY TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY INTO THE FOUR PEAKS AREA WHILE TWO TO
THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. AS THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT LIKELY PERSISTING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM MARICOPA
COUNTY EASTWARD STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FURTHER WEST INTO MARICOPA COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXISTING ODILE SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY MINIMAL. GRADUAL DRYING
IS EXPECTED BEHIND ODILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY FRIDAY AND DOWN TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL LIFT FOR SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN ONE AND ONE
HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CREEP BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS STARTING SUNDAY WITH SOME 100-105
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA DESERTS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... THROUGH
02Z THU...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE REGION. A FEW LOW TOPPED
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM WILL DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO HUMID
THAT ISOLD SHWRS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES. CIGS IN RAINFALL COULD FALL TO BETWEEN 4 AND THSD
AGL...WITH VSBYS NEAR 5 MILES. GENERALLY LGT E TO SE WINDS EXCEPT
NEAR SHWRS. FROM 02Z THU TO 12Z THU...SHWRS ENDING. CIGS LIFTING AND
BECOMING SCT-BKN 8-10 THSD AGL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH..
THROUGH 12Z THU...SCT-BKN CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 9
KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE REGION...KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHTER THAN NORMAL.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AZZ022>024-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











000
FXUS65 KREV 172140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE TRANSPORT
FROM THE KING FIRE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING
THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 2-5 MILES AND
DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH ACROSS
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL COOL BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. A CLOSED LOW SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE. THE 12Z EC IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND FROM ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO HAVE
LARGELY IGNORED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE KEEPING THAT
SAME HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW A DEEP
TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE TROUGH SOLUTION, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AROUND 30-35
KTS WITH RIDGES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 KTS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
TURBULENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. THE LARGE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE KING FIRE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL EL DORADO
COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN
NEVADA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST, SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN POUR INTO THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 TO 5 MILES. THE
HARDEST HIT TERMINALS WILL BE KTRK AND KRNO WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM 3-4 PM UNTIL 8-9 PM.

A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A KTRK-GERLACH
LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST,
SHIFTING THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH. THE SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
KRNO, KCXP, KTVL, AND KTRK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE SMOKE PLUME INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 172140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE TRANSPORT
FROM THE KING FIRE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD OF HIGHWAY 50 INCLUDING
THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 2-5 MILES AND
DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES INTO MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS MORE WESTERLY
AND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT ACROSS INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH ACROSS
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL
ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP KEEP SMOKE MAINLY WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL COOL BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASON AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SIERRA. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. A CLOSED LOW SITTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE-LOVELOCK LINE. THE 12Z EC IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND FROM ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO HAVE
LARGELY IGNORED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE KEEPING THAT
SAME HIGH WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW A DEEP
TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE TROUGH SOLUTION, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK AROUND 30-35
KTS WITH RIDGES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 KTS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
TURBULENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. THE LARGE SMOKE PLUME
FROM THE KING FIRE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL EL DORADO
COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN
NEVADA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE WEST, SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN POUR INTO THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3
AND 4 PM. IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 TO 5 MILES. THE
HARDEST HIT TERMINALS WILL BE KTRK AND KRNO WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM 3-4 PM UNTIL 8-9 PM.

A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A KTRK-GERLACH
LINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST,
SHIFTING THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH. THE SMOKE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
KRNO, KCXP, KTVL, AND KTRK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AND TAKE THE SMOKE PLUME INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KLOX 172121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 172121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/215 PM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/215 PM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER
TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 172114
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
214 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal Thursday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend. High uncertainity towards middle week but at least
some indications of a possible system Wednesday or Thursday.

&&
.Discussion...
Somewhat active but fairly low impact short tern forecast with 3
key things to concentrate on. Upper trough will into area late
tonight and across the area Thursday. This wave will be weakening
as it does so looks like biggest impact it will bring will be
clouds and cooler than normal temperatures. There should be some
showers but amounts look to be light. Can`t rule out a
thunderstorm or two with some instability but not too much to get
too worried about.

Next concern shifts to Friday as this system passes...low level
winds will shift to down valley from the north. Once again...given
strength of the wind...not too much to worry about for fire
weather but it will allow temperatures to warm and humidities to
drop.

Friday night into Saturday will be interesting as far smoke
concerns as winds turn to the east. This could drag smoke from
KingFire westward into Valley floor. It likely will but westward
extent will be tricky to tell. NAM also showing fair instability
over night Friday into Friday night but GFS much less. Will
probably result in some mid level clouds but have kept some slight
chances of Sierra south of Highway 50.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Interesting long term forecast towards mid week. Early in the week
no strong synoptic features in place but toward day 7 and 8...both
ECMWF and GFS are now bringing in a large trough into Pacific
Northwest. ECMWF is wetter and more agressive at this point. Given
the better agreement of the operational models at this point seems
appropriate to insert to have at least a 20 percent chance of
moisture...mostly in northern zones...but still alot of
uncertainity with this system...thus pops closer to climotology
make more sense than dry. Rasch


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible over western Shasta County and
Coastal range beginning this afternoon and spreading SE over
valley and into Sierra by tonight. Local SWerly surface wind gusts
up to 35 to 45 kts possible over higher mountain peaks this
afn/eve and overnight. SWerly gusts up to 20-25 kts through delta
and Sac Valley this afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 172114
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
214 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal Thursday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend. High uncertainity towards middle week but at least
some indications of a possible system Wednesday or Thursday.

&&
.Discussion...
Somewhat active but fairly low impact short tern forecast with 3
key things to concentrate on. Upper trough will into area late
tonight and across the area Thursday. This wave will be weakening
as it does so looks like biggest impact it will bring will be
clouds and cooler than normal temperatures. There should be some
showers but amounts look to be light. Can`t rule out a
thunderstorm or two with some instability but not too much to get
too worried about.

Next concern shifts to Friday as this system passes...low level
winds will shift to down valley from the north. Once again...given
strength of the wind...not too much to worry about for fire
weather but it will allow temperatures to warm and humidities to
drop.

Friday night into Saturday will be interesting as far smoke
concerns as winds turn to the east. This could drag smoke from
KingFire westward into Valley floor. It likely will but westward
extent will be tricky to tell. NAM also showing fair instability
over night Friday into Friday night but GFS much less. Will
probably result in some mid level clouds but have kept some slight
chances of Sierra south of Highway 50.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Interesting long term forecast towards mid week. Early in the week
no strong synoptic features in place but toward day 7 and 8...both
ECMWF and GFS are now bringing in a large trough into Pacific
Northwest. ECMWF is wetter and more agressive at this point. Given
the better agreement of the operational models at this point seems
appropriate to insert to have at least a 20 percent chance of
moisture...mostly in northern zones...but still alot of
uncertainity with this system...thus pops closer to climotology
make more sense than dry. Rasch


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible over western Shasta County and
Coastal range beginning this afternoon and spreading SE over
valley and into Sierra by tonight. Local SWerly surface wind gusts
up to 35 to 45 kts possible over higher mountain peaks this
afn/eve and overnight. SWerly gusts up to 20-25 kts through delta
and Sac Valley this afternoon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 172100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY. THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO AFTER
06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 172100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY. THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO AFTER
06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 172100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY. THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO AFTER
06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 172100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A RESULT OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAIN IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD DOWN INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST FACING COASTAL HILLS/MOUNTAINS WHERE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD PICK A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS. WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER...OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY. THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO AFTER
06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 172042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AT 1.73 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE...WITH 1232 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED
INDEX OF -2.1. CURRENTLY...THE GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE
DESERTS...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE IS ON THE
DECREASE...COMPARED TO THE 2 INCH READINGS WE HAD YESTERDAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 600 MB. THUS...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY...BUT
THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OVER THE AREA...SO IT IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
WHEN THERE WAS 2000-3000 J/KG. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME STRONG
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT HOWEVER SHOULD BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. MODEL INDICATED 700-500 MB WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH INCREASES THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8
PM FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN RATHER HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS OUR OFFICE HAS A LOW OF ONLY 80
DEGREES THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING
OCCURRING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL





000
FXUS66 KSGX 172042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AT 1.73 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE...WITH 1232 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED
INDEX OF -2.1. CURRENTLY...THE GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS
INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE
DESERTS...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE IS ON THE
DECREASE...COMPARED TO THE 2 INCH READINGS WE HAD YESTERDAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 600 MB. THUS...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH FLOW TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY...BUT
THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OVER THE AREA...SO IT IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
WHEN THERE WAS 2000-3000 J/KG. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME STRONG
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
MAIN THREAT HOWEVER SHOULD BE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. MODEL INDICATED 700-500 MB WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH INCREASES THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8
PM FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN RATHER HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS OUR OFFICE HAS A LOW OF ONLY 80
DEGREES THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING
OCCURRING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT MAY
BECOME THICK AND DEEP ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE...AND A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR THAT TIME.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
172000Z...COAST...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED
THROUGH 18/13Z. AFTER 18/13Z SCT-BKN STRATUS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1800 FEET MSL. STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND TO
ABOUT KNKX-KSEE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF KONT. VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1-3 SM IN HAZE AND FOG WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT IS LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES...EXCEPT SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL
DEVELOP...MAINLY FAR EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS...AND DESERTS...
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 1 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT/SMALL






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 172026
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
125 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE
SANTA BARBARA AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...TEMPS TODAY TRENDING COOLER BY 4-8 DEGREES
ON AVERAGE AS GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
CONVECTION GETTING A SLOWER START TODAY BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN LA COUNTY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING GIVEN THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE CONCERN WILL BE TO OUR EAST WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER HOT SUNDOWNER FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALREADY GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR GAVIOTA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THU AND CAUSE THE MARINE
LYR TO DEEPEN QUITE A BIT. N OF PT CONCEPTION IT SHOULD DEEPEN UP
OVER 2000 FT WITH CLOUDS SPILLING WELL INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO BRING
ACTUAL RAIN, BUT THE DEEPENING MARINE LYR COULD SPIT OUT SOME
DRIZZLE UP NORTH EARLY THU. FURTHER SOUTH WE`RE EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
TO START FORMING OVER THE BIGHT TONIGHT AND PUSH ONSHORE LATE AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS THU MORNING. THE BIG ONSHORE PUSH WILL
BRING CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS
WHERE HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE LOW 100S TODAY TO THE MID 80S THU IN
MANY AREAS.

FURTHER COOLING AND MARINE LYR DEEPENING (ESPECIALLY S OF PT
CONCEPTION) FRIDAY AS THE TROF EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF LOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT TO LA/VENTURA COUNTIES FRI AS THE
MARINE LYR LIKELY SHOOTS UP OVER 2500` AND GETS CLOSE TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY GET SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER
THE MTNS AS WE GET SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW BUT IT
DOESN`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTORMS. MOST AREA HIGHS EXPECTED
TO TUMBLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FRI FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS.
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD CERTAINLY BE EVEN COOLER IF IT
WEREN`T FOR SST`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WARMER SST`S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND EVEN MORE UNPREDICTABLE MARINE LYR BEHAVIOR THAN
USUAL, BUT CERTAINLY EARLIER CLEARING THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DEEP MARINE LYR.

THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO FILL SAT AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LYR DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS AGREE ON THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING AND MARINE LYR SHRINKAGE.
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
BIG TIME AWAY FROM THE HUGE 600+DM HIGH OVER NRN CA TO A RATHER DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE PAC NW. EVEN THE 5 WAVE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A
TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE EXTREMES IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, BUT GIVEN
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
CHANGE I`M INCLINED TO GO ALONG WITH IT. WITH THIS IN MIND MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S A FAR CRY FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE
AN EVEN HOTTER HEAT WAVE THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED AND I WOULD
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THAT
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 171806
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1106 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO
AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS OF 10 AM BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE 3-FOOT SOUTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS.
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT MORE WEATERLY
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH GENERATES ADDITIONAL WAVES. THE WAVES
WILL BE A MIX OF 18 SECOND PERIOD AND 14-15 SECOND PERIOD WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTER PERIOD WAVES WILL
BECOME DOMINANT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 171806
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1106 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO
AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS OF 10 AM BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE 3-FOOT SOUTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS.
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT MORE WEATERLY
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH GENERATES ADDITIONAL WAVES. THE WAVES
WILL BE A MIX OF 18 SECOND PERIOD AND 14-15 SECOND PERIOD WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTER PERIOD WAVES WILL
BECOME DOMINANT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 171806
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1106 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO
AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS OF 10 AM BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE 3-FOOT SOUTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS.
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT MORE WEATERLY
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH GENERATES ADDITIONAL WAVES. THE WAVES
WILL BE A MIX OF 18 SECOND PERIOD AND 14-15 SECOND PERIOD WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTER PERIOD WAVES WILL
BECOME DOMINANT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 171806
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1106 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE TERMINALS BUT CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND MRY BAY.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SFO BAY AREA TONIGHT. MODELS BRING LOWER CIGS INTO SFO
AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
15 KT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 07Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BECOMING VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MRY BAY SO THERE WILL BE AN EARLY RETURN
INTO MRY AND SNS. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MRY AFTER 02Z AND SNS AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS OF 10 AM BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE 3-FOOT SOUTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS.
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT MORE WEATERLY
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH GENERATES ADDITIONAL WAVES. THE WAVES
WILL BE A MIX OF 18 SECOND PERIOD AND 14-15 SECOND PERIOD WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTER PERIOD WAVES WILL
BECOME DOMINANT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 171805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL LLWS NEAR KSBA. NINETY PERCENT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
VLIFR-LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... SIXTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COAST... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE ADJACENT INLAND VALLEYS AND AT KPRB.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS65 KPSR 171702
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1002 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME
THURSDAY...SOME MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF SONORA MEXICO. ALL OF THE CONVECTION
AND THE DEEP MOISTURE NOW RESIDES TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. DRY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS INTO
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...BUT VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW 300MB.
ODILE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS HUNG UP IN MEXICO. MAY END UP SEEING
SOME FAINT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SIGNATURE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 850MB. OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA.

WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. NEARLY ALL
MODELS NOW SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN JUST SKIRTING BY THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA. AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FROM MARICOPA COUNTY WEST WITH A GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO ONE INCH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF MARICOPA COUNTY. CENTRAL PINAL INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES
SHOULD END UP SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD END UP BEING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR GLOBE
THROUGH WEST PHOENIX AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN SCATTERED. MORE STEADY
RAIN IS SHOWN MOVING THROUGH PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN PINAL WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT NORTHERN PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF DOWNWARD FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY WESTWARD WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY TRICKY WITH QUITE A
LARGE VARIATION EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 85 MI SOUTH OF
PUERTO PENASCO...AND THE TIMING...EXTENT...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE AS AT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
LATER TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES
(EURO/GFS) AND THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING
THE REMAINS OF ODILE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.
THE EURO/GFS MODELS TRACK THE CENTER OF ODILE/S LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE TUCSON METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. THE
WRF4KM HI-RES MODEL...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...ON THE OTHER
HAND...BOTH MOVE THE CENTER OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EITHER SOLN SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE...TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...OVER SE AZ...UNDER DEEP UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS SW AZ AND SE CA. STILL...SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
1.50-3.00 INCH RANGE...WITH THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SEEING
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALLS IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE...WHICH COULD
STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

ACROSS SW AZ AND SE CA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW...OR WELL BELOW 0.75 INCH...LOCALIZED HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW HEAVIER SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A WESTERLY ONE...CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
PWATS ACROSS THE PHX AREA RUNNING IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TS GOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW AZ THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. AS FAR AS THE IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM POLO IS
CONCERNED...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACKS IT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER...KEEPING ITS IMPACTS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH END THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF SOUTH GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE PHOENIX AREA BUT HAVE REALLY GOTTEN
SHEARED OUT THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS I STILL THINK A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN IS WARRANTED IN THE PHOENIX TAFS ALONG WITH CIGS AROUND
10KFT. COULD BE LOWER /AROUND 5KFT/ FOR A BRIEF TIME WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS BASED ON OBS AT KCGZ BUT THIS HAS BEEN THE
EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE MODELS ARE
TRYING TO INDICATE A MID MORNING BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS LATER TODAY IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND CONFIDENCE MUCH BEYOND 19Z IS LIMITED.
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM IS HIGH BUT WHERE/WHEN IS UP FOR
DEBATE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LOOKING LIKE BOTH SE CA SITES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DRY OUT ONCE
AND FOR ALL. BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ITS
ENTIRELY CONCEIVABLE THAT THEY ARE DONE WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS
EVENT. I RETAINED A FEW HOURS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
IN THE EVENT STORMS MANAGE TO FORM IN AZ AND DRIFT INTO SE CA...BUT
THE BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL INTO ARIZONA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RE-ORGANIZE STORM
CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX AS OPPOSED TO THE DESERTS.
STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.  EVEN WITH THIS DRIER AIR...HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON AZZ021>024-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 171702
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1002 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SONORAN
MEXICO...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO...AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION SOMETIME
THURSDAY...SOME MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF SONORA MEXICO. ALL OF THE CONVECTION
AND THE DEEP MOISTURE NOW RESIDES TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. DRY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS INTO
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...BUT VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW 300MB.
ODILE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS HUNG UP IN MEXICO. MAY END UP SEEING
SOME FAINT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SIGNATURE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 850MB. OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA.

WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. NEARLY ALL
MODELS NOW SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN JUST SKIRTING BY THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA. AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FROM MARICOPA COUNTY WEST WITH A GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO ONE INCH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF MARICOPA COUNTY. CENTRAL PINAL INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES
SHOULD END UP SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD END UP BEING IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY.

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NEAR GLOBE
THROUGH WEST PHOENIX AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN SCATTERED. MORE STEADY
RAIN IS SHOWN MOVING THROUGH PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN PINAL WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT NORTHERN PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF DOWNWARD FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY WESTWARD WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY TRICKY WITH QUITE A
LARGE VARIATION EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. THE CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR
TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 85 MI SOUTH OF
PUERTO PENASCO...AND THE TIMING...EXTENT...AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE AS AT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
LATER TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. THE LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES
(EURO/GFS) AND THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING
THE REMAINS OF ODILE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.
THE EURO/GFS MODELS TRACK THE CENTER OF ODILE/S LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE TUCSON METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. THE
WRF4KM HI-RES MODEL...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...ON THE OTHER
HAND...BOTH MOVE THE CENTER OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EITHER SOLN SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE...TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...OVER SE AZ...UNDER DEEP UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS SW AZ AND SE CA. STILL...SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST PINAL
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
1.50-3.00 INCH RANGE...WITH THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SEEING
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALLS IN THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE...WHICH COULD
STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

ACROSS SW AZ AND SE CA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW...OR WELL BELOW 0.75 INCH...LOCALIZED HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW HEAVIER SHOWER/TS DEVELOPMENT. BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A WESTERLY ONE...CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
PWATS ACROSS THE PHX AREA RUNNING IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TS GOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW AZ THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. AS FAR AS THE IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM POLO IS
CONCERNED...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACKS IT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER...KEEPING ITS IMPACTS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD PRETTY MUCH END THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF SOUTH GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE PHOENIX AREA BUT HAVE REALLY GOTTEN
SHEARED OUT THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS I STILL THINK A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT RAIN IS WARRANTED IN THE PHOENIX TAFS ALONG WITH CIGS AROUND
10KFT. COULD BE LOWER /AROUND 5KFT/ FOR A BRIEF TIME WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS BASED ON OBS AT KCGZ BUT THIS HAS BEEN THE
EXCEPTION NOT THE RULE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE MODELS ARE
TRYING TO INDICATE A MID MORNING BREAK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS LATER TODAY IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND CONFIDENCE MUCH BEYOND 19Z IS LIMITED.
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM IS HIGH BUT WHERE/WHEN IS UP FOR
DEBATE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
LOOKING LIKE BOTH SE CA SITES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DRY OUT ONCE
AND FOR ALL. BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ITS
ENTIRELY CONCEIVABLE THAT THEY ARE DONE WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS
EVENT. I RETAINED A FEW HOURS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
IN THE EVENT STORMS MANAGE TO FORM IN AZ AND DRIFT INTO SE CA...BUT
THE BIGGER IMPACTS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL INTO ARIZONA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RE-ORGANIZE STORM
CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX AS OPPOSED TO THE DESERTS.
STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.  EVEN WITH THIS DRIER AIR...HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS
TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON AZZ021>024-027-028.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KMTR 171620
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MAINLY
CONFINED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION
NOTED. WHILE IS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE AREA CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. ACROSS
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN
LIFR CONDITIONS OVER KMRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A MODERATE
AND GUSTY SEABREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER KSFO WITH MVFR
CIG EXPECTED OVER KOAK TILL 18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TILL
AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171620
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
920 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH COASTAL CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BURN-OFF OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
BAY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE DETAILS AS THE 12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AROUND 132W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
PACNW/NORCAL REGION. BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES, WE SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
AS THE SYSTEM/LONGWAVE TROF APPROACH. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 60S AND 70S
AT THE COAST WITH 70S AND 80S FOR INLAND SPOTS. IN SOME AREAS IT
WILL BE A DROP OF UP TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SWITCH TO RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR OUR CWA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
NORTH BAY STARTING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DOWN TO AS FAR
AS THE MONTEREY/SLO BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO SO STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS "EVENT" WILL FEATURE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS --
MOSTLY UNDER 1/10" -- FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IF WE DO GET MORE THAN
A TENTH ANYWHERE, THE FAVORED SPOTS WOULD BE THE USUAL SPOTS SUCH
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES. LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS, IT`S
BEEN NEARLY 45 DAYS SINCE SAN FRANCISCO HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AND AROUND 145 SINCE MORE THAN AN TENTH WAS RECORDED SO EVEN A
SMALL AMOUNT WILL BE WELCOME. BIGGEST HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SLICK ROADS DUE TO OILS THAT HAVE BUILT UP ON THEM.

INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS GETS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOSGUIDE
THUNDERSTORM NUMBERS SHOW UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTH BAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT WAS LEFT OUT
OF ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START TO WARM BACK UP FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
AREA ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS. OTHER
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS)
OFFER A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AND HAVE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST AND ANY RIDGING MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED.
FOR NOW WILL JUST ADVERTISE WARM BUT NOT HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MAINLY
CONFINED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION
NOTED. WHILE IS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE AREA CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. ACROSS
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN
LIFR CONDITIONS OVER KMRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A MODERATE
AND GUSTY SEABREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER KSFO WITH MVFR
CIG EXPECTED OVER KOAK TILL 18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TILL
AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED
400 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF POINT REYES AND IN THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 171618
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
917 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVER BAJA AND IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AT 1.73 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE...WITH 1232 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -2.1. CURRENTLY...THE
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE DESERTS...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE
IS ON THE DECREASE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 600 MB.
THUS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE VALLEYS TODAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG
OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE AREA...SO IT IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS 2000-3000 J/KG. THERE IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE...WHICH
MEANS THAT SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER SHOULD BE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MODEL INDICATED 700-500 MB
WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WHICH INCREASES THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 AM TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN RATHER HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS OUR OFFICE HAS A LOW OF ONLY 80
DEGREES THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING
OCCURRING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
171600Z...COAST...VFR WITH FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FT MSL AND TOPS
NEAR 1800 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND PUSH
AROUND 15 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM FROM BR WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT IS
LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 9 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 171618
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
917 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND AND A RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WITH PATCHY COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVER BAJA AND IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AT 1.73 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE...WITH 1232 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -2.1. CURRENTLY...THE
GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE DESERTS...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE
IS ON THE DECREASE. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING
SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 600 MB.
THUS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE VALLEYS TODAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG
OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE AREA...SO IT IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS 2000-3000 J/KG. THERE IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVELS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE...WHICH
MEANS THAT SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER SHOULD BE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MODEL INDICATED 700-500 MB
WINDS OF ONLY 5-10 KT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WHICH INCREASES THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 AM TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN RATHER HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS OUR OFFICE HAS A LOW OF ONLY 80
DEGREES THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
QUITE AS BAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE COOLING
OCCURRING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVING OVER SONORA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST
COAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW...WITH A CLOSED LOW SPLITTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVING INTO A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY SATURDAY
AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. LOCAL WRF INDICATES A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO COOL THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MORE-SO ON
FRIDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LIKELY...AND ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS. WITH THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE AREA...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MOVING DEEP INTO THE VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR POINT CONCEPTION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH MEANS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA...THEN THE DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE LOW COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY THIS WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE MAY BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
171600Z...COAST...VFR WITH FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FT MSL AND TOPS
NEAR 1800 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND PUSH
AROUND 15 SM INLAND BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 1-3 SM FROM BR WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT IS
LOW-MODERATE.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED +SHRA AND +TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT MSL...WITH
TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHTENING...SMALL HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 9 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
SURF...THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SETS WILL CONTINUE ON EXPOSED SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT






000
FXUS66 KLOX 171612
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE NLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME STRATUS COULD EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS
FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING. WITH GOOD ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SKIES MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLEARING NEAR THE COAST ON THU...ESPECIALLY N OF
PT CONCEPTION...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE DYING FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. WITH CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN MORE
THAN 15 DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED TODAY IN SOME AREAS.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE COAST OF CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...REACHING A POSITION NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RATHER DEEP MARINE LAYER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.  THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FRI MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF L.A. COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE MAY BE ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 4TH OF THE MONTH.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR POINT CONCEPTION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...POSSIBLY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES ONCE
AGAIN. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
INTO CENTRAL CA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT BETTER CLEARING ON
SUNDAY...AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING LIKELY...AND A REDUCTION IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
STRATUS. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY ON TUE AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES A BIT...AND IF LOW OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WARMING MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.AVIATION...17/1150Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF AS KSMX/KSBP REMAIN CLEAR BUT COULD GO
LIFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDS FOR
CENTRAL COAST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z KPRB TAF.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF STRATUS AFTER 04Z AS IFR CIGS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. LESS
LIKELY FOR KSBA DUE TO SUNDOWNER WINDS BETWEEN 22Z-07Z. BUT 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THU MORNING AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...17/830 AM
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WILL HAVE LOCAL
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS RELATED TO SUNDOWNER WINDS OFF THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST.  MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF IT DEVELOPS BEYOND A LOCAL EVENT.

&&

.BEACHES...17/830 AM
THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH THESE EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH OVER TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...CK
MARINE/BEACHES...KJ
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 171612
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL WILL BE HOT TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WARMING TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY AFTER A
VERY WARM START AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIDN`T DROP BELOW 80 IN SOME
PLACES. GRADIENTS, THOUGH STILL 1.5MB OFFSHORE, ARE TRENDING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ONSHORE AND EVEN THE TREND OF THE TREND IS POSITIVE MEANING
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.
BASIN PROFILERS, WHILE WARMER IN THE LOWEST 500` OR SO, ARE SHOWING
A COOLING TREND ALOFT WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN. SO WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. STILL HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT,
AND PROBABLY NO THREAT TO RECORDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER SPIKE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TEMPS WITH A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNERS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN UNDERDOING THE GRADIENT AND NORTHERLY FLOW EACH OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS AND PROBABLY IS AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIKELY BE
PUTTING OUT ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO HIGH 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW TO
MID 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE
NOTICABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH STABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, AND WHILE 850 DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THAT 10-12 RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN LA COUNTY, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T
IDEAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 15000`
WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND LIKELY STALL
DEVELOPMENT. LI`S STAY ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. K INDICES ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER BEING IN THE LOW 40S YESTERDAY. AND
STEERING FLOW TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WHICH MEANS WE`RE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TROF TO THE WEST. SO WHILE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO, I THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS VERY SMALL
AND CONFINED TO EASTERN LA COUNTY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE UP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EVALUATE WHETHER ONE IS STILL NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUNTING ANY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL N-S
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY N WINDS THRU AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE ADJACENT S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S
COAST OF SBA COUNTY..