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000
FXUS66 KMTR 250552
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AT A
MODERATE PACE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING
JUST INSIDE 130W AND A POOL OF COLD UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WINDS WILL
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE OCEAN AND IN THE HILLS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY BY ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL PROBABLY ONLY
OCCUR IN SOME OF OUR WINDIEST COASTAL AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DROUGHT-STRESSED TREES
HAVE NOT BEEN SUBJECTED TO WINDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AND MANY ARE PRONE TO TOPPLING WITH THIS FIRST BLUSTERY
STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON. POWER OUTAGES OR PROPERTY DAMAGE ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FALLEN TREES OR TREE LIMBS. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY COAST AND
MOUNTAINS...THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS...AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FROM 3 AM TO NOON PDT ON SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP ACTION LATE SATURDAY MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
THEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH OUR REGION AS
THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES. THE 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING. HOWEVER...AS POINTED
OUT IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONTINUED MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENT FOR GREATER INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OF SATURDAY EVENING AND END BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH
NORTHWEST BREEZES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PAC NW. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA...AND WE MAY WANT TO CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FROM THE
NORTH BAY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FALLS OFF CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST. BUT THE FORECAST OF PRECIP ONSET IN OUR AREA
VARIES CONSIDERABLY...FROM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT (GEM) TO AS
LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT (ECMWF).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SITUATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING  INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WET RUNWAYS BY MORNING. T-STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WEST
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG
SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
             WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
             WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 250520
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1020 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Synopsis...
Wet and windy weather moves in later tonight into Saturday as an
upper level trough and associated front move into the area.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain, accumulating small hail and gusty
winds and maybe even a weak tornado are possible on Saturday. Snow
levels will lower below Sierra passes Saturday night. Decreasing
winds are expected Saturday evening and precipitation will taper off
Sunday. A brief break Monday will be followed by a chance of rain
over areas north of Sacramento Tuesday and Wednesday. This
precipitation threat will drop southward bringing rain or mountain
snow over much of NORCAL for the end of the next week.

&&

.Discussion...

Occluded front looking very ominous offshore with definite/sharp
backedge of front and area of enhanced clouds indicating band of
convective precip along the front which is along 127W. WAA clouds
precede the front and will be overspreading interior Norcal
overnite...but precip associated with the front not forecast to move
into the coastal range until around 12z (5 am). Frontal precip moves
into the Siernev late morning and afternoon with break in the valley
until upper air dynamics and colder/unstable move into the area
later in the afternoon and evening.

925 mbs winds indicate 40-45 kts Sly winds developing in the valley
by and after 12z with MFR-SAC gradient at least topping 12 mbs. This
is sufficient for wind advsry and AWW for KRDD as Sly gusts top out
at 40+ MPH as front moves across the area and for a few hours behind
the front. Strongly sheared environment expected to lead to isolated
to scattered CBs late morning and afternoon.

Locally heavy showers expected with deep convection as PW over +2
standard deviations Sat morning and at least one standard deviation
behind the front Sat afternoon. QPFS will vary widely due to the
convection but the Shasta/Siernev mtns with strong upslope flow
should have significant QPF.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Upper level trough offshore of the West Coast will move into
Northern California tonight into Saturday bringing a change to wet
and windy weather. Increasing clouds and precipitation moving into
the Coastal range and Shasta County around midnight and spread
southeast across interior northern California Saturday. Southerly
winds will increase late tonight into Saturday as the cold front and
trough move inland. This will bring breezy and gust winds with
southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph in the
Valley...strongest in the Nrn Sacramento Valley and up to 70 mph
over the ridges. Holiday decorations should be secured with the gusty
winds and high profile vehicles should use caution. Winds should be
decreasing Saturday evening. Shasta County mountains could see up to
2 inches of precipitation by Sunday morning with good orographics
with the southerly winds. Snow levels will be around 8000 ft
Saturday morning and drop down to around 5000 to 6000 ft on Sunday
morning. Snow accumulations up to 10 inches are possible on Mt
Lassen and up to 4 inches possible over the higher Sierra passes.
Motorists should be prepared for possible winter driving conditions
in the mountains this weekend. Good instability and shear on
Saturday will bring a threat of thunderstorms and possibly weak
tornadoes. Precipitation will taper off on Sunday with showers
mainly lingering over the Shasta County and down the Sierra. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the mid 60s to low 70s in the
Valley and mid 30s to low 50s in the mountains. Monday will be a
drier and warmer day with ridge building into the area as trough
shifts east.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Flat high pressure over the southwest U.S will keep at least the
southern half of the forecast area dry Tuesday. The northern
portions of the forecast area will see a continued threat of light
rain. Daytime high temperatures under mainly cloudy skies are
expected to come in a few to several degrees below normal. Another
cool low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will
bring precipitation chances southward Wednesday through Friday.
Significant model differences exist in the Wednesday-Friday time
frame. The European model is much deeper and brings deeper
moisture into Norcal versus the drier GFS. Have opted for a blend
of solutions but forecast confidence not high during this time
frame.

&&

.Aviation...

Pacific cold front moves across the area on Sat bringing chances of
rain and increasing winds. Wind gusts to 45 mph will be possible
after 12z especially over the northern valley.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory from 5 am to 8 pm pdt saturday central sacramento
valley...northern sacramento valley...southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$









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000
FXUS66 KSGX 250426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE AND CATALINA ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT. RECENT AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM COASTAL AIRPORTS INDICATE A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER...AROUND 300 FT OR SO. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG SPREADING INTO THE
HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WILL JUST BRING A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME
CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO
DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING GRADUAL WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. UNCERTAINTY
STILL LINGERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING IN A TROUGH
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND KEEPS A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HALLOWEEN
BEFORE MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...COAST...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AROUND 400 FT MSL AND TOPS
NEAR 800 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW MILES
INLAND TONIGHT. VIS AT OR BELOW 1SM DUE TO BR/FG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MAY HELP RAISE CEILINGS A FEW HUNDRED FEET
BY MID-SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW/SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT
MSL...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS...IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...AN ELEVATED NW...MID-PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL
SURF OF 3-5 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7 FEET...ALONG WESTERLY FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY. HIGHEST SETS WILL BE ON BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT






000
FXUS66 KMTR 250355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AT A
MODERATE PACE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING
JUST INSIDE 130W AND A POOL OF COLD UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WINDS WILL
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE OCEAN AND IN THE HILLS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY BY ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL PROBABLY ONLY
OCCUR IN SOME OF OUR WINDIEST COASTAL AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DROUGHT-STRESSED TREES
HAVE NOT BEEN SUBJECTED TO WINDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AND MANY ARE PRONE TO TOPPLING WITH THIS FIRST BLUSTERY
STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON. POWER OUTAGES OR PROPERTY DAMAGE ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FALLEN TREES OR TREE LIMBS. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY COAST AND
MOUNTAINS...THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS...AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FROM 3 AM TO NOON PDT ON SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP ACTION LATE SATURDAY MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
THEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH OUR REGION AS
THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES. THE 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING. HOWEVER...AS POINTED
OUT IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONTINUED MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENT FOR GREATER INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OF SATURDAY EVENING AND END BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH
NORTHWEST BREEZES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PAC NW. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA...AND WE MAY WANT TO CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FROM THE
NORTH BAY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FALLS OFF CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST. BUT THE FORECAST OF PRECIP ONSET IN OUR AREA
VARIES CONSIDERABLY...FROM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT (GEM) TO AS
LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT (ECMWF).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING APPROXIMATELY 500 NM OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS.
T-STORMS REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEEP OUT OF
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...A 992 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN
WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE
OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
             WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
             WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 250355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AT A
MODERATE PACE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING
JUST INSIDE 130W AND A POOL OF COLD UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WINDS WILL
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THE OCEAN AND IN THE HILLS BY
LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST NAM...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE NORTH BAY BY ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL PROBABLY ONLY
OCCUR IN SOME OF OUR WINDIEST COASTAL AND RIDGETOP LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DROUGHT-STRESSED TREES
HAVE NOT BEEN SUBJECTED TO WINDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE FOR QUITE
SOME TIME AND MANY ARE PRONE TO TOPPLING WITH THIS FIRST BLUSTERY
STORM SYSTEM OF THE SEASON. POWER OUTAGES OR PROPERTY DAMAGE ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FALLEN TREES OR TREE LIMBS. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY COAST AND
MOUNTAINS...THE SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS...AND THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FROM 3 AM TO NOON PDT ON SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP ACTION LATE SATURDAY MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
THEN BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH OUR REGION AS
THE COLD AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES. THE 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING. HOWEVER...AS POINTED
OUT IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONTINUED MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR COAST MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENT FOR GREATER INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OF SATURDAY EVENING AND END BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH
NORTHWEST BREEZES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH STORM SYSTEMS
FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PAC NW. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA...AND WE MAY WANT TO CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FROM THE
NORTH BAY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FALLS OFF CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST. BUT THE FORECAST OF PRECIP ONSET IN OUR AREA
VARIES CONSIDERABLY...FROM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT (GEM) TO AS
LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT (ECMWF).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING APPROXIMATELY 500 NM OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS.
T-STORMS REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEEP OUT OF
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...A 992 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN
WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE
OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
             WIND ADVISORY...SAN MATEO AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COASTS
             WIND ADVISORY...SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 1 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 250354
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
854 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES JUST
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING IN BOTH OUTER WATER ZONES. WIND
GUSTS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT KNEELAND AS OF 8 PM. THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY TIMING LOOKS DECENT...THOUGH MAY NEED TO BE STARTED A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR LAND
AREAS AS GREAT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH
60 MPH ON THE COAST IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE POST FRONTAL
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS. IN FACT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. THUS THERE IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS WITH STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO WHERE THE NATURAL CURVE OF THE COAST INCREASES WIND
SHEAR/SPIN. CONSIDERING STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE JUST AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER
LAND...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE...BUT AS USUAL NOT
VERY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY ON SATURDAY. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 312 PM PDT...

SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 500 MILES WEST OF EUREKA. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE MAINLY CLEARED ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST...BUT REMAINS AROUND 300 MILES
OFFSHORE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT THE OFFICE IN
EUREKA.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO START AT THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND QUICKLY. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN AND
IT WILL START FIRST...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SLOPES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL PEAK AT THE COAST
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS AT 850 MB
PEAKING AT 50 TO 60 KT AT THE COAST AND A BIT LESS INLAND. THIS
MIX TO THE SURFACE WELL WITH GUSTS AT THE COAST EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
IN THE VALLEYS. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

BEHIND THE FRONT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH WITH 30 TO 40 KT
IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND 10 TO 20 KT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LONGER LASTING STORMS. THERE IS SOME
CURVATURE IN THE 0-1KM SHEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED VERY WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT...BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL THE CAPE IS LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL RISK (A
RECENTLY UPDATED WAY OF SAYING "SEE TEXT") FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH 500MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY BE AROUND -21C WHICH DOESNT MAKE IT COLD
ENOUGH FOR US TO RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING
THEY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN. THERE MAY BE SECONDARY STRENGTHENING
AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MENDOCINO
COUNTY VALLEYS...BUT ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP FOG OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT  MKK

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTER A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE RAIN FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTHWARD WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC MODELS
DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
COAST. WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CLEARING TODAY AND BRIEF DRYING AS A WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW WELL WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO...LIFTED NORTH AND OUT OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF
FOG CONTINUED ACROSS SEVERAL INLAND VALLEYS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
LIRF TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVER UKIAH UNTIL MIDDAY. A POTENT
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME HEAVY RAINS. CIGS AND VIS MAY
LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
AT CEC AND ACV ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LOW
VIS/CIG...WIND SHEAR AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AIRPORT AND FLIGHT HAZARD THREATS. TA

MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO
KICK UP THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. NWPS HAS SHORT PERIOD SEAS HITTING 17
TO 22 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
FOR ALL THE MARINE ZONES. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD START LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS AND THEN EXPAND INTO THE INNER WATERS
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 250354
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
854 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND VERY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES JUST
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING IN BOTH OUTER WATER ZONES. WIND
GUSTS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH AT KNEELAND AS OF 8 PM. THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY TIMING LOOKS DECENT...THOUGH MAY NEED TO BE STARTED A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE
WHETHER AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR LAND
AREAS AS GREAT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH
60 MPH ON THE COAST IF CONDITIONS ARE JUST RIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE POST FRONTAL
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS. IN FACT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. THUS THERE IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS WITH STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF
THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO WHERE THE NATURAL CURVE OF THE COAST INCREASES WIND
SHEAR/SPIN. CONSIDERING STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE JUST AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER
LAND...A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE...BUT AS USUAL NOT
VERY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY ON SATURDAY. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 312 PM PDT...

SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 500 MILES WEST OF EUREKA. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE MAINLY CLEARED ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST...BUT REMAINS AROUND 300 MILES
OFFSHORE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT THE OFFICE IN
EUREKA.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO START AT THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND QUICKLY. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN AND
IT WILL START FIRST...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SLOPES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL PEAK AT THE COAST
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS AT 850 MB
PEAKING AT 50 TO 60 KT AT THE COAST AND A BIT LESS INLAND. THIS
MIX TO THE SURFACE WELL WITH GUSTS AT THE COAST EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
IN THE VALLEYS. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

BEHIND THE FRONT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH WITH 30 TO 40 KT
IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND 10 TO 20 KT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LONGER LASTING STORMS. THERE IS SOME
CURVATURE IN THE 0-1KM SHEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED VERY WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT...BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL THE CAPE IS LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL RISK (A
RECENTLY UPDATED WAY OF SAYING "SEE TEXT") FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH 500MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY BE AROUND -21C WHICH DOESNT MAKE IT COLD
ENOUGH FOR US TO RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING
THEY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN. THERE MAY BE SECONDARY STRENGTHENING
AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MENDOCINO
COUNTY VALLEYS...BUT ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP FOG OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT  MKK

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTER A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE RAIN FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTHWARD WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC MODELS
DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
COAST. WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CLEARING TODAY AND BRIEF DRYING AS A WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW WELL WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO...LIFTED NORTH AND OUT OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF
FOG CONTINUED ACROSS SEVERAL INLAND VALLEYS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
LIRF TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVER UKIAH UNTIL MIDDAY. A POTENT
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME HEAVY RAINS. CIGS AND VIS MAY
LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
AT CEC AND ACV ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LOW
VIS/CIG...WIND SHEAR AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AIRPORT AND FLIGHT HAZARD THREATS. TA

MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO
KICK UP THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. NWPS HAS SHORT PERIOD SEAS HITTING 17
TO 22 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
FOR ALL THE MARINE ZONES. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD START LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS AND THEN EXPAND INTO THE INNER WATERS
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 250307
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE VERY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPS REMAINED QUITE HIGH TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS CUYAMA WHICH
REACHED 95 DEGREES.(UNOFFICIAL RECORD) WAS 90 DEGREES BACK IN 2007.
THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS A TAD STRONGER THAN EXPECTED HELPED MOST
INLAND AREAS REMAIN QUITE WARM. THE CENTRAL COAST WAS MUCH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.

FOR THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING N
OF POINT CONCEPTION..EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE FOOTHILLS
INTO THE SLO VALLEYS LIKELY REACHING PASO ROBLES OVERNIGHT. A 545 DM
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH...IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY SAT MORNING AND IN
AND AROUND THE PASO ROBLES AREA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES....OTHERWISE
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS N OF POINT ON
SATURDAY WHILE COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER
THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SLO/SBA COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING FOE AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...BEST COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSING COLD FRONT WITH SOME AREAS LOWERING 8 TO
18 DEGREES INLAND...WITH LESS COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...SANTA
YNEZ...LOMPOC AND SANTA MARIA SHOULD STAY A BIT WARMER THAN MOST
CENTRAL COAST LOCATIONS. WARMEST LOCATIONS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...EXPECT 6 TO 10 DEGREES OF
COOLING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH BEST COOLING INLAND. NO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW. WARMEST
LOCATIONS WILL BE THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
VENTURA/SBA COUNTY MTNS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 10C...NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE INVERSION OR
MARINE LAYER...BUT A FEW RANDOM SMATTERING OF CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LA COUNTY WITH A WEAK EDDY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND MOUNTAINS.
MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY...WITH BREEZY BUT WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
AND A TOUCH OF WARMING. THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF WARMING HOWEVER WITH DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE LAYER WITH STILL COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK BUT NOTICEABLE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. THIS ALL SPELLS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN AS THE MARINE
INVERSION REFORMS WITH THE RIDGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MARINE
LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

AT THIS POINT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0050Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0030Z
WAS NEAR 600 FT. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH CIG HEIGHTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING LIFR CONDS...BUT WITH TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02-4Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY WITH BEST CHANCES OF VCSH
OR -RA CONDS BETWEEN 14-18Z. MAINLY FOR KSBP AND KPRB. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT AFTER FROPA SAT LATE AFTERNOON.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS THIS EVE. CIGS COULD BE DELAYED + 2 HOURS FROM 00Z TAF
TIMES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE VFR HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SAT MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
10Z-13Z

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 50% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. A
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/KITTELL
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 250301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND H5 HEIGHTS WERE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER SRN AZ PER THE 00Z PLOT DATA. IR
IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT/HIGH HEIGHTS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
CLIMBED ANOTHER FEW DEGREES AND INTO RECORD TERRITORY OVER THE
WARMER LOWER DESERTS. PHOENIX TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
TODAY...A MARK THAT WAS 9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW OFF
NRN BAJA STARTS TO MOVE INLAND INTO FAR SERN CA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS AZ AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD TO THE SRN DESERTS AND LEADING TO
PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY PARTLY DUE TO
EXPECTED VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER STARTING IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH
ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL
AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOST BASES
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS SATURDAY WILL BE AOA 8K FEET. AS
FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB/LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KLOX 250107
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
605 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
A 545 DM LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. WITH THE LOW TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG ITS PATH...BUT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A LITTLE (UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
WHERE THE CHANCES ARE GREATEST...AND SPED UP THE TIMING AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE AREA AROUND 6AM SATURDAY. FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND THE ELEVATED HILLS AND PLAINS OF INTERIOR
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY GUSTS (35-45 MPH) ARE
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY. KEEPING THE SATURDAY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR
LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN COOLING
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY...BUT SANTA YNEZ AND SANTA MARIA MAY STAY
WARM WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND OVER
SLO AND SBA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 10C...NOT EXPECTING ANY
MARINE INVERSION OR MARINE LAYER...BUT A FEW RANDOM SMATTERING OF
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LA COUNTY WITH A WEAK EDDY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
AND MOUNTAINS. MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY...WITH BREEZY BUT WEAKER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A TOUCH OF WARMING. THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARMING HOWEVER WITH DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW.
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE LAYER WITH STILL COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK BUT NOTICEABLE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. THIS ALL SPELLS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN AS THE MARINE
INVERSION REFORMS WITH THE RIDGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MARINE
LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

AT THIS POINT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0050Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0030Z
WAS NEAR 600 FT. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH CIG HEIGHTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING LIFR CONDS...BUT WITH TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02-4Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY WITH BEST CHANCES OF VCSH
OR -RA CONDS BETWEEN 14-18Z. MAINLY FOR KSBP AND KPRB. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT AFTER FROPA SAT LATE AFTERNOON.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS THIS EVE. CIGS COULD BE DELAYED + 2 HOURS FROM 00Z TAF
TIMES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE VFR HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SAT MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
10Z-13Z

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 50% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. A
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 242359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:29 PM PDT FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE
TURNED TO SOUTHERLY AS A FORERUNNER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND MARINE LAYER DEEPENING AND STARTING TO MIX OUT. COLD CORE
TROF LOCATED AROUND 135W WITH VORT CENTER AROUND 35N AND HAS
BOTTOMED OUT. FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHEAR TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. GIVEN EXTENT OF COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BAY
AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. AMOUNTS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST OF MONTEREY COUNTY TO AS
MUCH AS THREE QUARTERS INCH NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PRE FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
PLANNING ON ISSUING WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND WRF MODELS INDICATE
QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE BAY AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DISTRICT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION.

BELIEVE THE NAM IS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH HIGH CAPE AND HELICITY
VALUES...BUT GFS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH LOWER MODEL RESOLUTION
ISSUES. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT LEAST NORTH BAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AN APPARENT STABLE LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD CAP ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IF DEW POINTS STAY HIGH
ENOUGH...WOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS STABLE LAYER ALOFT.

THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. MODEL TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE JET STREAM WELL TO
OUR NORTH. LOOK FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS EXTREME NORTH BAY AS WEAK SYSTEMS PUSH THRU
THE PACIFIC NW. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD SLOWER APPROACH OF NEXT TROF
AND DELAYING NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:59 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING APPROXIMATELY 500 NM OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS.
T-STORMS REMAIN A CONCERT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEEP OUT OF
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. -RA
EXPECTED AROUND 11Z TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING MODERATE AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
TRAFFIC. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
-SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...A 992 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN
WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. A LINE
OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AND SHOWERS WILL END BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
             WIND ADVISORY...CAZ505-507-509-512-529 FROM 3 AM UNTIL
                             NOON SATURDAY
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 242254
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
354 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Synopsis...
Wet and windy weather moves in later tonight into Saturday as an
upper level trough and associated front move into the area.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain, accumulating small hail and gusty
winds and maybe even a weak tornado are possible on Saturday.
Snow levels will come down to below Sierra passes Saturday night.
Decreasing winds are expected Saturday evening and precipitation
will taper off Sunday. A brief break Monday will be followed by a
chance of rain over areas north of Sacramento Tuesday and
Wednesday. This precipitation threat will drop southward bringing rain or
mountain snow over much of NORCAL for the end of the next week.

&&

Upper level trough offshore of the West Coast will move into
Northern California tonight into Saturday bringing a change to wet
and windy weather. Increasing clouds and precipitation moving into the
Coastal range and Shasta County around midnight and spread
southeast across interior northern California Saturday. Southerly
winds will increase late tonight into Saturday as the cold front
and trough move inland. This will bring breezy and gust winds with
southerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph in the
Valley...strongest in the Sacramento Valley and up to 70 mph over the
ridges. Holiday decorations should be secured with the gusty
winds and high profile vehicles should use caution. Winds should
be decreasing Saturday evening. Shasta County mountains could see
up to 2 inches of precipitation by Sunday morning with good
orographics with the southerly winds. Snow levels will be around
8000 ft Saturday morning and drop down to around 5000 to 6000 ft
on Sunday morning. Snow accumulations up to 10 inches are possible
on Mt Lassen and up to 4 inches possible over the higher Sierra
passes. Motorists should be prepared for possible winter driving
conditions in the mountains this weekend. Good instability and
shear on Saturday will bring a threat of thunderstorms and
possibly weak tornadoes. Precipitation will taper off on Sunday
with showers mainly lingering over the Shasta County and down the
Sierra. High temperatures this weekend will be in the mid 60s to
low 70s in the Valley and mid 30s to low 50s in the mountains.
Monday will be a drier and warmer day with ridge building into
the area as trough shifts east.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Flat high pressure over the southwest U.S will keep at least the
southern half of the forecast area dry Tuesday. The northern
portions of the forecast area will see a continued threat of light
rain. Daytime high temperatures under mainly cloudy skies are
expected to come in a few to several degrees below normal. Another
cool low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will
bring precipitation chances southward Wednesday through Friday.
Significant model differences exist in the Wednesday-Friday time
frame. The European model is much deeper and brings deeper
moisture into Norcal versus the drier GFS. Have opted for a blend
of solutions but forecast confidence not high during this time
frame.

&&

.Aviation...

High thin clouds with winds from the south between 10-15 mph in
the afternoon. A system spreads in late tonight and Saturday bringing
chances of rain and increasing winds. Wind gusts to 45 mph will be
possible after 12z especially over the northern valley.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory from 5 am to 8 pm pdt saturday central sacramento
valley...northern sacramento valley...southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 242218
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP FURTHER FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOMORROW MORNING AND
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN GREAT
BASIN.

WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
INCREASES THE GRADIENT. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING A GRADIENT DRIVEN-
EVENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 DO NOT TYPICALLY HAVE STRONGER WINDS THAN THE LEESIDE
VALLEYS. IN FACT, FOR THE RENO-SPARKS AREA WINDS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395 TEND TO BE THE STRONGEST, AT LEAST UNTIL FROPA WHEN
WINDS ALOFT SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT (FAVORED FOR STRONGER FOOTHILL
WINDS).

ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY, THE BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO WAS ADDED
TO THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE GRADIENT-DRIVEN PATTERN FAVORS STRONG
WINDS FOR ALL AREAS NEAR AND AFTER FROPA VERSUS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WOULD FAVOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA.
ONE AREA THAT MAY SEE AN ADDED BOOST TO WINDS MAY BE ALONG HIGHWAY
395 BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND DOYLE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DIAMOND RANGE AND COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE
FOR DOWNSLOPING IN THAT AREA.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE UPPER FORCING
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THE CREST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING
WANING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA AS THE DISTURBANCE
IS A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AND END TO ANY SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING (ALTHOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE). IF SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN SOME MODELS), WE COULD
FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR MOST LOWER VALLEYS THAT HAVE
NOT ALREADY SEEN A FREEZE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR SHIFTS FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THIS FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC RUNS TRY TO RESOLVE MAJOR
FEATURES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS IN QUESTION; THE
FIRST SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIDWEEK AND THE SECOND APPROACHING
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUME IS DIRECTED
NORTHWARD IN THE CASCADES. STILL, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AS FAR SOUTH AS TRUCKEE IN THE SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE CHANGED YET AGAIN.
THEY NOW SHOW A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WOULD SLOW DOWN AND
WEAKEN THE APPROACHING WAVE. HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE SIERRA CREST, BUT WILL NOT REMOVE COMPLETELY
UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF GAIN SOME STABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE
TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER EACH DAY. DID LOWER THE NORTHERN ZONES A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE OVERALL WARMING TREND CLOSER TO THE
OREGON BORDER. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL IN THE
LOW 40S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND FREEZING IN SIERRA VALLEYS.
BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
UP TO 30 KTS. TVL WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
TENDS TO CHANNEL WINDS THROUGH LOCAL VALLEYS; GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE. AFTER 12Z SAT, THE WINDS INCREASE WITH TURBULENCE AND
LLWS LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
40-45 KTS AFT 15Z POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 00Z SUN. SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS, KRNO AND KCXP, MAY SEE BRIEF BUT HIGHER WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA WITH
MTN OBSCN. THIS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN LASSEN DOWN THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN BY 18Z AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SIERRA FRONT BY
00Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING
OUT AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THE INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
MIXED, WITH MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
FRONT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY,
AS STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OR MORE WILL COMBINE WITH
MODERATELY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HUMIDITY
WON`T GET DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 1100-1700 SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREAS AROUND 1400-1600 SATURDAY, WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL TIMING AROUND MID DAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL HELP INCREASE HUMIDITY AND DAMPEN THE WINDS A BIT
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS EAST OF RENO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2000. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS66 KEKA 242212
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 500 MILES WEST OF EUREKA. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE MAINLY CLEARED ACROSS NORTHWEST CA AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST...BUT REMAINS AROUND 300 MILES
OFFSHORE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT THE OFFICE IN
EUREKA.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO START AT THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD
INLAND QUICKLY. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HEAVIER RAIN AND
IT WILL START FIRST...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SLOPES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL PEAK AT THE COAST
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS AT 850 MB
PEAKING AT 50 TO 60 KT AT THE COAST AND A BIT LESS INLAND. THIS
MIX TO THE SURFACE WELL WITH GUSTS AT THE COAST EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
IN THE VALLEYS. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

BEHIND THE FRONT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY HIGH WITH 30 TO 40 KT
IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND 10 TO 20 KT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LONGER LASTING STORMS. THERE IS SOME
CURVATURE IN THE 0-1KM SHEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED VERY WEAK TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT...BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL THE CAPE IS LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL RISK (A
RECENTLY UPDATED WAY OF SAYING "SEE TEXT") FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH 500MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY BE AROUND -21C WHICH DOESNT MAKE IT COLD
ENOUGH FOR US TO RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING
THEY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN. THERE MAY BE SECONDARY STRENGTHENING
AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MENDOCINO
COUNTY VALLEYS...BUT ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP FOG OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT  MKK

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTER A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...THE WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AND WILL GENERATE RAIN FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTHWARD WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC MODELS
DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
COAST. WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS ON THESE TWO DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CLEARING TODAY AND BRIEF DRYING AS A WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW WELL WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO...LIFTED NORTH AND OUT OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF
FOG CONTINUED ACROSS SEVERAL INLAND VALLEYS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
LIRF TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVER UKIAH UNTIL MIDDAY. A POTENT
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME HEAVY RAINS. CIGS AND VIS MAY
LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
ENERY WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
AT CEC AND ACV ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...LOW
VIS/CIG...WINDSHEAR AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AIRPORT AND FLIGHT HAZARD THREATS. TA

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO
KICK UP THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. NWPS HAS SHORT PERIOD SEAS HITTING 17
TO 22 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
FOR ALL THE MARINE ZONES. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD START LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS AND THEN EXPAND INTO THE INNER WATERS
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 242123
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
A 545 DM LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. WITH THE LOW TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG ITS PATH...BUT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A LITTLE (UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH) RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
UPPED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF SLO COUNTY
WHERE THE CHANCES ARE GREATEST...AND SPED UP THE TIMING AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE AREA AROUND 6AM SATURDAY. FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND THE ELEVATED HILLS AND PLAINS OF INTERIOR
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY GUSTS (35-45 MPH) ARE
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WIND ADVISORY. KEEPING THE SATURDAY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR
LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN. HIGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN COOLING
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY...BUT SANTA YNEZ AND SANTA MARIA MAY STAY
WARM WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND OVER
SLO AND SBA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 10C...NOT EXPECTING ANY
MARINE INVERSION OR MARINE LAYER...BUT A FEW RANDOM SMATTERING OF
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LA COUNTY WITH A WEAK EDDY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
AND MOUNTAINS. MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY...WITH BREEZY BUT WEAKER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A TOUCH OF WARMING. THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARMING HOWEVER WITH DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW.
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE LAYER WITH STILL COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK BUT NOTICEABLE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. THIS ALL SPELLS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN AS THE MARINE
INVERSION REFORMS WITH THE RIDGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MARINE
LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

AT THIS POINT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z.
THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 500 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LIFT CONDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SCATTER OUT BY 19-20Z
TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z. A SOMEWHAT DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL BRING LIFR CONDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 03Z THIS
EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW
CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT L.A. COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDS FOR KOXR. THERE IS A 20-30% CHC
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KSBA...KBUR AND KVNY TONIGHT IF THE
MARINE LAYER EXPANDS FURTHER INLAND AND NWWD ALONG THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 20% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. A
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 242118
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
218 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE MORNING...BUT COOLER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:29 PM PDT FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE
TURNED TO SOUTHERLY AS A FORERUNNER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND MARINE LAYER DEEPENING AND STARTING TO MIX OUT. COLD CORE
TROF LOCATED AROUND 135W WITH VORT CENTER AROUND 35N AND HAS
BOTTOMED OUT. FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHEAR TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. GIVEN EXTENT OF COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BAY
AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. AMOUNTS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST OF MONTEREY COUNTY TO AS
MUCH AS THREE QUARTERS INCH NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PRE FRONTAL SOUTH
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
PLANNING ON ISSUING WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND WRF MODELS INDICATE
QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE BAY AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DISTRICT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP AFTER THE COLD FRONT...THEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION.

BELIEVE THE NAM IS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH HIGH CAPE AND HELICITY
VALUES...BUT GFS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH LOWER MODEL RESOLUTION
ISSUES. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT LEAST NORTH BAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AN APPARENT STABLE LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD CAP ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IF DEW POINTS STAY HIGH
ENOUGH...WOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THIS STABLE LAYER ALOFT.

THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. MODEL TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE JET STREAM WELL TO
OUR NORTH. LOOK FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS EXTREME NORTH BAY AS WEAK SYSTEMS PUSH THRU
THE PACIFIC NW. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD SLOWER APPROACH OF NEXT TROF
AND DELAYING NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. NO CONCERNS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BUT THEY SHOULD TREND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. T-STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WONT SHOW
THAT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TREND SOUTHWEST AND
NOT IMPACT OPERATIONS. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ISSUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING PLANNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEAR FOR KSNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BANK CURRENTLY HOVERING OVER KMRY. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
AT THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
-SHRA BY AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:52 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
             WIND ADVISORY...CAZ505-507-509-512-529 FROM 3 AM UNTIL
                             NOON SATURDAY
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR FROM 5 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 242100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND AND INCREASED WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE ONE MORE WARM DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST
UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
CENTRAL CA. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN CA AND THE PAC NW. IN OUR CWA...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO SEQUOIA PARK...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF FRESNO.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH
MAINLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...INCLUDING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SJ VALLEY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SAT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

ON LATE SAT NIGHT HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VALLEY AND INTO THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS...MAINLY AROUND THE GRAPEVINE AND FRAZIER PARK AREAS. ALSO
EXTENDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO INTO SUN MORNING AS NORTHWESTERLY...OR
UPSLOPE WINDS...BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AS OF THE LATEST MORNING RUNS...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE EAST PACIFIC BY TUESDAY WITH
FURTHER STRENGTHENING ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY. AS OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FROM LAST
NIGHT...MODELS DISAGREED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF BRINGING
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS OF THIS MORNING/S RUNS...MODELS BRING THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER NEXT SATURDAY. SO WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WARM AND DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY ALSO REMAINS LOW. FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT...HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HAVE OPTED FOR CLIMO IN TERMS OF POPS DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971
KFAT 10-26       89:2003     57:2004     58:1927     35:1939

KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
KBFL 10-26       92:2003     58:1996     61:1959     35:1939
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 242040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE
LAYER RETURNING.  THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER
THE PACIFIC AND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.  IN FACT...MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO
7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THOUGH...SO ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY INITIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...THE
COASTAL MESAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME DENSE FOG
BY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO NORMAL RANGES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS.  THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED INLAND CANYONS AND PASSES.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.  FOR THIS REASON...THINK THAT THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT
BEING SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY THOUGH...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE A BIT ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST...THROUGH 02Z...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT TIMES...02Z-06Z LOCAL CIGS
AOB 400 FT MSL AND VIS AOB 3SM IN BR/FG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AFT 06Z THROUGH 12Z SAT. CIGS RISING TO 400-800 FT MSL
AND VIS 3-5SM BR 12Z THROUGH 18Z SAT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
CIG/VIS LEVELS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF 3-5SM AND LOCALLY BELOW 2SM VIS IN FG/BR 12Z/18Z SAT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXTENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FG/BR. CIGS AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 3SM NOT EXPECTED AT KONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
.800 AM...SURF WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY DUE TO A 13 SECOND 9 FT
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SURF OF 3-5
FT...WITH INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS A LONGER PERIOD
2 FT SOUTH SWELL MIXES WITH THE LARGE WEST SWELL. FAVORED AREAS FOR
LARGER SURF WILL BE SOUTH OF SOLANA BEACH AND EXPOSED BEACHES OF
ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TIDE RECEDES. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD







000
FXUS65 KPSR 242033
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
133 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS66 KLOX 241801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON SATURDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST BUT WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTY LOOK
TO LOWER FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AND CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THAT WELL. LA AND VENTURA
COUNTY SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNTOUCHED ON THE OTHER HAND AS WEAK OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AND MOSTLY REMOVED COOLING TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA FROM
TOMORROW.

***PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OVERALL...00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN
FORECAST "CONCERN" WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DYING REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOISTURE/QPF PROGS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS STILL WARRANTED AND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND NOT OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE.

OTHERWISE...SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. FOR
THIS MORNING...STRATUS/DENSE FOG HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND SOME VERY PATCHY STRATUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MARINE LAYER
STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...IMPACTING THE COASTAL PLAIN
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS). FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT THE STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES (WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING).

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEN MORE
DRAMATIC COOLING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR. AT
THIS TIME...MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON THURSDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS AGREE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE)...BUT BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR THE SURFACE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN ON THURSDAY (IF THE GFS IS CORRECT).

FORECAST-WISE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...MARINE LAYER STRATUS AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE
PREVIOUS THINKING OF JUST SOME VERY SLIGHT COOLING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A BIT FURTHER OUT FOR HALLOWEEN...THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. STILL TOO
EARLY TO "BITE" ON THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1700Z
WAS NEAR 500 FT. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2900 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LIFT CONDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SCATTER OUT BY 19-20Z
TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGH 00Z. A SOMEWHAT DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL BRING LIFR CONDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 03Z THIS
EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW
CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT L.A. COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDS FOR KOXR. THERE IS A 20-30% CHC
THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KSBA...KBUR AND KVNY TONIGHT IF THE
MARINE LAYER EXPANDS FURTHER INLAND AND NWWD ALONG THE COAST.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 20% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. WILL LIKELY
ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 241752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1052 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO EVIDENT IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
BAY. WITH THE SHORTER DAYS FOG AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE COAST ALL DAY. OTHERWISE
MOST AREAS WILL BY MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. WOULD EXPECT STRATUS TO
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AND MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

DETAILS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE FROM THE LATEST NAM RUN REGARDING
TIMING OF RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GFS NOT AS ROBUST AS
NAM WITH CONVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IMPRESSIVE CAPE FROM NAM RAISES POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN INTO BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE GRID FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SAN MATEO COAST
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS GIVEN
THE WEAKENED STATE OF TREES WITH THE DROUGHT.

EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL BAND AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TRIGGER PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY DOWN TO BAY AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:52 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. NO CONCERNS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BUT THEY SHOULD TREND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRETTY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. T-STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WONT SHOW
THAT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TREND SOUTHWEST AND
NOT IMPACT OPERATIONS. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ISSUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING PLANNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEAR FOR KSNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BANK CURRENTLY HOVERING OVER KMRY. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
AT THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
-SHRA BY AROUND 12-15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:52 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 241709
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1009 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Synopsis...
Warmer conditions today as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the western U.S. A weather system will bring rain, mountain
snow and windy conditions Saturday with showers Sunday. A brief
break Monday will be followed by a chance of rain over areas north
of Sacramento Tuesday and Wednesday. This precip threat will drop
southward bringing rain or mountain snow over much of NORCAL for
the end of the next week.

&&
Upper level trough in the Eastern Pacific with a weak ridge over
Northern California today. Areas of fog developed around Chico and
south to east of Modesto this morning. Fog became dense in some
locations this morning including Sacramento and Marysville so
dense fog advisory is out until 10 am as Visibilities are gradually
improving this morning. Temperatures this afternoon will be warmer
than yesterday with mostly sunny skies and a little warmer
airmass. Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday around
Sacramento  to Stockton with fog and low clouds this morning.

The trough approaches the coast tonight increasing the clouds and
spreading a threat of precipitation into the Coastal range and
Shasta County around midnight and spread southeast across interior
northern California Saturday. Southerly winds will increase late
tonight into Saturday as the cold front and trough move inland.
This will bring breezy and gust winds with gusts to around 40 mph
in the Valley and up to 60 mph in the mountains so holiday
decorations should be secured. Precipitation amounts are expected
to be around an inch in the mountains except Shasta County
mountains will see more due to good orographics. About a quarter
to half an inch in the Northern Sacramento Valley to less than a
tenth of inch in the northern San Joaquin Valley is expected. Some
instability Saturday afternoon and evening for threat of
thunderstorms. Winds should decrease Saturday evening and
precipitation decreasing Sunday morning. Snow levels will start
between 8000 and 9000 ft and drop to around 6000 to 7000 feet by
Sunday morning. Several inches of snow are possible around Mount
Lassen but only around a couple inches expected around the Sierra
passes. Precipitation will taper off on Sunday with showers mainly
lingering over the Shasta County and down the Sierra. Monday will
be a drier and warmer day with ridge building into the area as
trough shifts east.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Flat high pressure over the southwest U.S will keep at least the
southern half of the forecast area dry Tuesday and Wednesday. The
northern portions of the forecast area will see a continued threat
of light rain. Daytime high temperatures under mainly cloudy skies
are expected to come in a few to several degrees below normal.
Another cool low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will bring precipitation chances southward on Thursday and
Friday. Models still not showing real good consistency during this
7 to 8 day time frame however both run to run and model to model so
forecast confidence not high during this time frame.

&&

.Aviation...

Lingering rainfall this morning is associated with a frontal
boundary currently located along the northern coastal range and
northern mountains. This is shifting north, with dry conditions to
the south. Areas of dense fog around KCIC to KSCK this morning
including Sacramento. Visibilities should increase aft 17z with
VFR/MVFR conditions expected this afternoon. High thin clouds
with winds from the south between 10-15 mph in the afternoon. A
system spreads in late tonight bringing chances of rain and
increasing winds.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 241704
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1004 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT DEL NORTE COUNTY. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MKK

.AVIATION UPDATE...INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED THROUGH
EARLY MORNING OVER DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN AREA...EXCEPT AT VICINITY
OF CEC WHERE POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE. CEC ITSELF IS VFR BUT
WAS STILL REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. UKIAH AND THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS
HAS CONTINUED TO REPORT IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH 10 AM WITH ALL
VIS NOW VFR. PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST AND LOWERING VSBY IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
THE PEAK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AMPLE VERTICAL SPEED
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR
AT CEC & ACV. TA/BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NW CAL THIS MORNING, BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. MORNING IR
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT, AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
REGION. THIS CLEARING SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR TODAY TO BECOME A FAIRLY NICE DAY...ALBEIT
INCREASINGLY WINDY.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
RAIN, WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONTINUE TO USE QPF
FROM CNRFC AS THE BASE, BUT HAVE BEEN SUPPLEMENTING WITH THE GFS
AND EC TO HELP SHOW HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF WITH THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE NAEFS ANOMALY TABLE SHOW THE IVT IS
OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORM OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS IVT IS SHOWING VALUES WELL OVER 700, WHICH
PUTS US SQUARE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO NW CAL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE DEEP INTERIOR VALLEYS TO
UPWARDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE KING RANGE AND SISKIYOUS.

MORNING WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS A DIGGING AND
INTENSIFYING LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAY AREA. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THEN TURN TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD
TOWARD THE PAC NW AS IT DROPS AROUND 20MB IN 24 HOURS. AS THE
TRAILING FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY.
THE EC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW 925 AND 850 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50KT
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND TO AROUND 40KT AT 850 INLAND. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COASTAL RIDGES POTENTIALLY GUSTING DEEP INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE. THE
COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP INTO THE 30 MPH WITH
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING 40 MPH. INTERIOR RIDGES WILL GUST INTO THE
40 MPH RANGE WHILE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHELTERED WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. ASCENDING OUT OF
THE VALLEYS, WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. AS SUCH, HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NW CAL WITH INTERIOR AREAS CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH WINDS CAN RANGE FROM TRAVEL
HAZARDS TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. IF OUT TONIGHT IN THE
WINDS, PLAN AHEAD AND STAY SAFE. IT IS BEST TO AVOID TRAVEL IN THE
WIND AND RAIN IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A COOL POOL AND POTENT POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE ABILITY TO MIXED DOWN STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT CAUSING GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS, AS WELL BRING SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN OR MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. SPC HAS PLACED NW CAL IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE, MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE WINDS, BUT WITH
THE SHEAR PRESENT IN THE VERTICAL AND THE POTENT TROUGH THEY SAY
IN THEIR DISCUSSION THAT "EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE".
WE WILL BE WATCHING CONDITIONS CLOSELY TODAY TO SEE HOW THIS
APPROACHING LOW SHAPES UP AND WHERE IT ULTIMATELY MAKES LANDFALL.
THIS WILL DICTATE WHERE THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH LANDS STRONGEST.

OVERALL, A NICE DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WINDY AND RAINY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BRING A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NICE RIDGE WITH DRYING AND EASING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BFG

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOIST ZONAL FLOW AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUE WILL PROBABLY GENERATE MORE RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST HERE. GFS AND ECMWF START
TO DIVERGE ON WED AND THU AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS WERE NOT IN REAL GOOD
SYNC...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE MILD AND PERHAPS WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES SOME BUT
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO MORE THAN 50% EVEN
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY.

AVIATION...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
UKI HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VSBY THIS MORNING
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CREPT THEM INTO THE VALLEY. AS THE SUN COMES
UP THIS SHOULD MIX OUT READILY, LEAVING THEM VFR FOR THE DAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST AND LOWERING VSBY IN
HEAVY SHOWERS. THE PEAK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AMPLE VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT. TAFS REFLECT AN IMPROVING DAY TODAY AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. BFG

MARINE...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP OFFSHORE
TODAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR
CAPE MENDO. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO KICK UP THE WINDS
SAT AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. NWPS HAS SHORT PERIOD SEAS HITTING 15 TO 20 FT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THE MODEL
AT THIS POINT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND THEN EXPANDING INTO THE INNER WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 241643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
942 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH APPROX 590DM H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE WAY AND ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

NOT GOING TO BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
THINGS APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTS SQUARELY AT 96 FOR A HIGH AT PHOENIX TODAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES AROUND YUMA/EL CENTRO. RECORDS ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REACH THIS AFTERNOON AT PHOENIX BUT YUMA`S RECORD
OF 105 WILL REMAIN INTACT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 241624
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
924 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:06 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO EVIDENT IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTH BAY. WITH THE SHORTER DAYS FOG AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE COAST ALL DAY.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BY MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. WOULD EXPECT
STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AND MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

DETAILS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE FROM THE LATEST NAM RUN REGARDING
TIMING OF RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GFS NOT AS ROBUST AS
NAM WITH CONVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IMPRESSIVE CAPE FROM NAM RAISES POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN INTO BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE GRID FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SAN MATEO COAST
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SOME LARGER TREE LIMBS GIVEN
THE WEAKENED STATE OF TREES WITH THE DROUGHT.

EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL BAND AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TRIGGER PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY DOWN TO BAY AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH ONLY PATCHES GETTING IN TO THE SFO BAY
AREA. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER SHOULD KEEP STRATUS PATCHY IN
NATURE. THEREFORE ANY CIGS AFFECTING THE SFO APPROACH WILL CLEAR
OUT BY 16Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z.
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST-WEST AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SATTELITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER
MRY BAY MAKING LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. STILL BELIEVE IFR CIGS WILL
REACH SNS AND LINGER THROUGH 17Z. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z AT MRY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 241608
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON SATURDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST BUT WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTY LOOK
TO LOWER FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AND CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THAT WELL. LA AND VENTURA
COUNTY SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNTOUCHED ON THE OTHER HAND AS WEAK OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS UNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AND MOSTLY REMOVED COOLING TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF SANTA BARBARA FROM
TOMORROW.

***PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OVERALL...00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN
FORECAST "CONCERN" WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DYING REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOISTURE/QPF PROGS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS STILL WARRANTED AND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND NOT OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE.

OTHERWISE...SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. FOR
THIS MORNING...STRATUS/DENSE FOG HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND SOME VERY PATCHY STRATUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MARINE LAYER
STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...IMPACTING THE COASTAL PLAIN
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS). FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT THE STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES (WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING).

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEN MORE
DRAMATIC COOLING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR. AT
THIS TIME...MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON THURSDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS AGREE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE)...BUT BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR THE SURFACE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN ON THURSDAY (IF THE GFS IS CORRECT).

FORECAST-WISE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...MARINE LAYER STRATUS AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE
PREVIOUS THINKING OF JUST SOME VERY SLIGHT COOLING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A BIT FURTHER OUT FOR HALLOWEEN...THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. STILL TOO
EARLY TO "BITE" ON THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1130Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1115Z
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A, COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN MOST COASTAL AREAS. VLYS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 11Z SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. WILL LIKELY
ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSGX 241601
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER THE
PACIFIC...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE
RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY NICE FALL DAY.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW...COOLER CONDITIONS...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN
THIS WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE PARENT
TROUGH.  THIS PARENT TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA
ON LATE SATURDAY AND DEEPEN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  AS A
RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING TO WITHIN NORMAL RANGES ON SATURDAY AND
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL
RETURN TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY COASTAL OR WESTERN VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER RAPIDLY
DEEPENING THOUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET.  THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.  THE
EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DIVERGING QUITE A BIT...BETWEEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OR KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE.  CURRENTLY THOUGH...MORE
SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE RIDGE THAN THE TROUGH...WHICH
LIKELY MEANS THAT THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
241509Z...COAST...THROUGH 02Z...SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...02Z-06Z LOCAL CIGS AOB 400 FT MSL AND VIS AOB 3SM IN
BR/FG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFT 06Z THROUGH 12Z SAT.
CIGS RISING TO 400-800 FT MSL AND VIS 3-5SM BR 12Z THROUGH 18Z SAT.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CIG/VIS LEVELS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF 3-5SM AND LOCAL BELOW 2SM VIS IN FG/BR 12Z/18Z SAT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXTENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FG/BR.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...SURF WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY DUE TO A 13 SECOND 9 FT
WEST SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SURF OF 3-5 FT...WITH
INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS A LONGER PERIOD 2 FT SOUTH
SWELL MIXES WITH THE LARGE WEST SWELL. FAVORED AREAS FOR LARGER SURF
WILL BE SOUTH OF SOLANA BEACH AND EXPOSED BEACHES OF ORANGE COUNTY.
STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES
OF LARGE TIDAL SWINGS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD







000
FXUS66 KSTO 241146
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
446 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer conditions today as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the western U.S. A weather system will bring rain, mountain
snow and windy conditions Saturday with showers Sunday. A brief
break Monday will be followed by a chance of rain over areas north
of Sacramento Tuesday and Wednesday. This precip threat will drop
southward bringing rain or mountain snow over much of NORCAL for
the end of the next week.

&&

The high pressure ridge over the southwest U.S has continued to
build northward in response to a low pressure trough digging into
the eastern Pacific. Radar has shown the rain line over Shasta
county pushing northward overnight and at this time, only the far
northern most CWA is seeing any shower activity. This activity is
likely to clear by later today with mainly fair skies expected
over the entire CWA by afternoon. Clearer skies and a warmer
airmass will result in higher daytime temperatures today with many
locations hitting highs a little above normal. The offshore trough
will move coastward over night with the associated frontal system
moving onshore by morning. The main frontal passage impacts will
be during the afternoon on Saturday. Light to moderate amounts of
precipitation are expected with this system with perhaps the main
impact being a period of fairly strong winds. 9 or 10 mb surface
gradients are predicted between MFR and SAC between about 18z
Saturday and 00z Sunday with good upper level support from the
upper trough. Would expect the central and northern Sacramento
valley to hit wind advisory criteria during this time. Shear in
the central SAC valley is quite high and stability proggs showing
enough instability over the northern half of the CWA for a threat
of thunderstorms as well. Instability is somewhat weak however so
at this time would not expect to see much in the way of
significant thunderstorm activity. Main front passes east of the
CWA by Saturday evening and surface gradients drop off quickly.
Upper trough passes through Saturday night and early Sunday for a
continued threat of showers on Sunday mainly over the mountains.
Snow levels are expected to remain quite high especially during
the main precip event, not dropping until after frontal passage
Saturday. Therefore not expecting much snow at the higher
elevations with only an inch or two at pass levels. High pressure
ridging slides temporarily over over west coast on Monday for a
brief clearing and warming trend.
This weekend, the main weather system will move inland and bring
widespread rain and some breezy to locally windy conditions to
the region. Saturday looks to be the day with the most activity.
Winds, widespread showers and potential for afternoon/evening
isolated thunderstorms. At this time, the winds look like they`ll
be a nuisance for outdoor events and may blow holiday decorations
around. However, the slower progression of this system may result
in slightly higher winds. We will continue to monitor later runs
and see if any wind headlines are necessary. Also, the snow levels
are expected to lower to around 7000 feet Saturday night, so there
could be some light accumulations over the higher passes. Showers
will linger on Sunday, but should see decreasing showers from
south to north through the day. Precipitation amounts this weekend
should be a couple tenths in the San Joaquin Valley to up to half
an inch in the northern Sacramento Valley. The mountains could see
1-1.5 inches of liquid.

Monday will once again see a drying trend as a weak ridge builds
in behind the exiting system with temperatures rebounding to near
seasonal.



.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Flat high pressure over the southwest U.S will keep at least the
southern half of the forecast area dry Tuesday and Wednesday. The
northern portions of the forecast area will see a continued threat
of light rain. Daytime high temperatures under mainly cloudy skies
are expected to come in a few to several degrees below normal.
Another cool low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of
Alaska will bring precipitation chances southward on Thursday and
Friday. Models still not showing real good consistency during this
7 to 8 day time frame however both run to run and model to model so
forecast confidence not high during this time frame.

&&

.Aviation...

Lingering rainfall this morning is associated with a frontal
boundary currently located along the northern coastal range and
northern mountains. This is shifting north, with dry conditions to
the south. VFR conditions for the Valley today except for lcl
MVFR/IFR possible in patchy BR/FG for the northern and central
Sacramento Valley through 16z this morning. High thin clouds with
winds from the south between 10-15 mph in the afternoon. A system
spreads in tonight late tonight bringing chances of rain and
increasing winds. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 241136
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
436 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIRLY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO NW CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NW CAL THIS MORNING, BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. MORNING IR
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT, AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
REGION. THIS CLEARING SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING FOR TODAY TO BECOME A FAIRLY NICE DAY...ALBEIT
INCREASINGLY WINDY.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT IS THE MAIN STORY OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
RAIN, WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONTINUE TO USE QPF
FROM CNRFC AS THE BASE, BUT HAVE BEEN SUPPLEMENTING WITH THE GFS
AND EC TO HELP SHOW HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF WITH THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THE NAEFS ANOMALY TABLE SHOW THE IVT IS
OVER 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORM OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS IVT IS SHOWING VALUES WELL OVER 700, WHICH
PUTS US SQUARE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO NW CAL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE DEEP INTERIOR VALLEYS TO
UPWARDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE KING RANGE AND SISKIYOUS.

MORNING WATER VAPOR OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS A DIGGING AND
INTENSIFYING LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAY AREA. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THEN TURN TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD
TOWARD THE PAC NW AS IT DROPS AROUND 20MB IN 24 HOURS. AS THE
TRAILING FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY.
THE EC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW 925 AND 850 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50KT
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND TO AROUND 40KT AT 850 INLAND. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
COASTAL RIDGES POTENTIALLY GUSTING DEEP INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE. THE
COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING UP INTO THE 30 MPH WITH
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING 40 MPH. INTERIOR RIDGES WILL GUST INTO THE
40 MPH RANGE WHILE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHELTERED WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. ASCENDING OUT OF
THE VALLEYS, WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. AS SUCH, HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NW CAL WITH INTERIOR AREAS CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS FROM THESE HIGH WINDS CAN RANGE FROM TRAVEL
HAZARDS TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. IF OUT TONIGHT IN THE
WINDS, PLAN AHEAD AND STAY SAFE. IT IS BEST TO AVOID TRAVEL IN THE
WIND AND RAIN IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A COOL POOL AND POTENT POST FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE ABILITY TO MIXED DOWN STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT CAUSING GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS, AS WELL BRING SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN OR MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. SPC HAS PLACED NW CAL IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE, MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE WINDS, BUT WITH
THE SHEAR PRESENT IN THE VERTICAL AND THE POTENT TROUGH THEY SAY
IN THEIR DISCUSSION THAT "EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE".
WE WILL BE WATCHING CONDITIONS CLOSELY TODAY TO SEE HOW THIS
APPROACHING LOW SHAPES UP AND WHERE IT ULTIMATELY MAKES LANDFALL.
THIS WILL DICTATE WHERE THE POST FRONTAL TROUGH LANDS STRONGEST.

OVERALL, A NICE DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WINDY AND RAINY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BRING A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NICE RIDGE WITH DRYING AND EASING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BFG

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOIST ZONAL FLOW AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUE WILL PROBABLY GENERATE MORE RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST HERE. GFS AND ECMWF START
TO DIVERGE ON WED AND THU AS THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. MODELS WERE NOT IN REAL GOOD
SYNC...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE MILD AND PERHAPS WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES SOME BUT
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO MORE THAN 50% EVEN
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
OUT TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
UKI HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VSBY THIS MORNING
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CREPT THEM INTO THE VALLEY. AS THE SUN COMES
UP THIS SHOULD MIX OUT READILY, LEAVING THEM VFR FOR THE DAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
BRINGING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST AND LOWERING VSBY IN
HEAVY SHOWERS. THE PEAK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AMPLE VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT. TAFS REFLECT AN IMPROVING DAY TODAY AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. BFG

&&

.MARINE...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP OFFSHORE
TODAY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR
CAPE MENDO. A POST FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALSO KICK UP THE WINDS
SAT AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. NWPS HAS SHORT PERIOD SEAS HITTING 15 TO 20 FT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THE MODEL
AT THIS POINT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND THEN EXPANDING INTO THE INNER WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ002-076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 241134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT DRAPED DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR DISTRICT IS
NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. EVEN WITH A LOT
OF SEARCHING...LARGEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND FOR THURSDAY WAS 0.04
INCHES AT A MESONET SITE AT SEA RANCH...ON THE NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY COAST. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS REPORTED AT ANY OF OUR ASOS
OR RAWS SITES.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDINESS ALONG VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE NOTED THAT JUST
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THE VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE HALF MOON BAY
AWOS HAS DROPPED TO UNDER 1/4 MILE AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF
PERSISTS AND SPREADS TO THE POINT THAT A SHORT TERM FORECAST OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED AS DAWN APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH ONLY PATCHES GETTING IN TO THE SFO BAY
AREA. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION LAYER SHOULD KEEP STRATUS PATCHY IN
NATURE. THEREFORE ANY CIGS AFFECTING THE SFO APPROACH WILL CLEAR
OUT BY 16Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z.
SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST-WEST AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SATTELITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER
MRY BAY MAKING LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS. STILL BELIEVE IFR CIGS WILL
REACH SNS AND LINGER THROUGH 17Z. IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z AT MRY.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 241132 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON SATURDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN
FORECAST "CONCERN" WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DYING REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOISTURE/QPF PROGS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS STILL WARRANTED AND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND NOT OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE.

OTHERWISE...SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. FOR
THIS MORNING...STRATUS/DENSE FOG HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND SOME VERY PATCHY STRATUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MARINE LAYER
STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...IMPACTING THE COASTAL PLAIN
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS). FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT THE STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES (WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING).

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEN MORE
DRAMATIC COOLING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR. AT
THIS TIME...MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON THURSDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS AGREE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE)...BUT BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR THE SURFACE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN ON THURSDAY (IF THE GFS IS CORRECT).

FORECAST-WISE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...MARINE LAYER STRATUS AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE
PREVIOUS THINKING OF JUST SOME VERY SLIGHT COOLING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A BIT FURTHER OUT FOR HALLOWEEN...THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. STILL TOO
EARLY TO "BITE" ON THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1130Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 1115Z
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A, COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN MOST COASTAL AREAS. VLYS SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 11Z SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...24/330 AM...
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SCA CONDS
ARE NEARLY CERTAIN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT
FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFF
THE COAST...AND FROM POINT SAL TO NEAR SAN NICOLAS ISLAND.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 241055 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT DRAPED DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR DISTRICT IS
NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. EVEN WITH A LOT
OF SEARCHING...LARGEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND FOR THURSDAY WAS 0.04
INCHES AT A MESONET SITE AT SEA RANCH...ON THE NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY COAST. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS REPORTED AT ANY OF OUR ASOS
OR RAWS SITES.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDINESS ALONG VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE NOTED THAT JUST
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THE VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE HALF MOON BAY
AWOS HAS DROPPED TO UNDER 1/4 MILE AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF
PERSISTS AND SPREADS TO THE POINT THAT A SHORT TERM FORECAST OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED AS DAWN APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 241055 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT DRAPED DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR DISTRICT IS
NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. EVEN WITH A LOT
OF SEARCHING...LARGEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND FOR THURSDAY WAS 0.04
INCHES AT A MESONET SITE AT SEA RANCH...ON THE NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY COAST. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS REPORTED AT ANY OF OUR ASOS
OR RAWS SITES.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDINESS ALONG VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE NOTED THAT JUST
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THE VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE HALF MOON BAY
AWOS HAS DROPPED TO UNDER 1/4 MILE AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF
PERSISTS AND SPREADS TO THE POINT THAT A SHORT TERM FORECAST OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED AS DAWN APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KSGX 241054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
354 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM WEATHER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WE GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
DESERTS. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NEAR MOUNT BALDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVERHEARD SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF VERY LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH STRATUS DECKS
MAKING FURTHER PENETRATION EACH NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRES IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE STRATUS
RELEGATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONE. STRATUS WILL BE LESS AND
LESS LIKELY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IN APPEARS TO BE A MINOR EVENT AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
240900Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LOW
CIGS/VIS AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS BELOW 400 FT MSL
AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE
5 MI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








000
FXUS66 KSGX 241054
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
354 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM WEATHER DAY TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS WE GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
DESERTS. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NEAR MOUNT BALDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVERHEARD SUNDAY NIGHT.

MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF VERY LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH STRATUS DECKS
MAKING FURTHER PENETRATION EACH NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRES IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE STRATUS
RELEGATED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONE. STRATUS WILL BE LESS AND
LESS LIKELY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IN APPEARS TO BE A MINOR EVENT AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
240900Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LOW
CIGS/VIS AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS BELOW 400 FT MSL
AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB
BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE
5 MI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...PG








000
FXUS66 KMTR 241053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT DRAPED DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR DISTRICT IS
NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. EVEN WITH A LOT
OF SEARCHING...LARGEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND FOR THURSDAY WAS 0.04
INCHES AT A MESONET SITE AT SEA RANCH...ON THE NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY COAST. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS REPORTED AT ANY OF OUR ASOS
OR RAWS SITES.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDINESS ALONG VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE NOTED THAT JUST
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THE VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE HALF MOON BAY
AWOS HAS DROPPED TO UNDER 1/4 MILE AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF
PERSISTS AND SPREADS TO THE POINT THAT A SHORT TERM FORECAST OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED AS DAWN APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 241053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ASIDE
FROM SOME MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS. HOWEVER...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
RAPIDLY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING
DISTRICTWIDE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:35 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT DRAPED DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR DISTRICT IS
NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
WETTER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. EVEN WITH A LOT
OF SEARCHING...LARGEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOUND FOR THURSDAY WAS 0.04
INCHES AT A MESONET SITE AT SEA RANCH...ON THE NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY COAST. NO MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS REPORTED AT ANY OF OUR ASOS
OR RAWS SITES.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDINESS ALONG VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR COAST AND LOCALLY IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND BEGINNING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. HAVE NOTED THAT JUST
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THE VISIBILITY REPORTED BY THE HALF MOON BAY
AWOS HAS DROPPED TO UNDER 1/4 MILE AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF
PERSISTS AND SPREADS TO THE POINT THAT A SHORT TERM FORECAST OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED AS DAWN APPROACHES. ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GENERAL TREND OF RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO SPEED THINGS UP A
BIT. CONSENSUS TIMING OF LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAS RAIN BEGINNING IN SANTA ROSA
AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...SAN
FRANCISCO DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTEREY...AND WITH A GOOD
CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR MONTEREY BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. AND THEN
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...THIS TIME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...IS LIKELY AS THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
QUICKLY FOLLOWS THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
COULD POTENTIALLY BE AS MUCH AS 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN WETTEST SPOTS OF
THE COASTAL NORTH BAY HILLS...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES
OR LESS ASIDE PERHAPS FROM A BIT MORE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS. AND SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT
ALL.

AS THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN SOME
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
SLICK AS ACCUMULATED SURFACE OILS MIX IN ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF PRECIP. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY ON
SATURDAY...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES EVIDENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FROM THE NAM. 500 MB
TEMPS REALLY DON`T GET ALL THAT COLD...ONLY DOWN INTO THE -18C TO
TO -20C RANGE EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUT
SURFACE TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO COUNTERBALANCE THAT...THE LATTER IN PARTICULAR
REFLECTING THE UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS THAT CONTINUE IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RETURN DISTRICTWIDE
BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE
ASIDE FROM JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTH
BAY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOULTIONS THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS TO WHETHER THE PRECIP BAND STARTS TO
SAG BACK DOWN TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY.

IN THE EVEN LONGER TERM...HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PROJECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR OUR AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:11 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 241030
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY AS HEAVY PRECIP...OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF TAKING FORM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. IR IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS
HAS THE COLD FRONT SOME 500 MILES DUE WEST OF THE BAY AREA.
THEREFORE...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. YET...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST...AS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP OVER MERCED TO MARIPOSA COUNTIES
AND YOSEMITE NP. MODELS PROGGING A SIX DEG-C DROP IN 850MB
TEMP/S...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE IN SOME 5 TO ALMOST 10 DEG-F DROP
IN SURFACE CONDITIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD FRONT IS PROGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR ON SATURDAY DURING
THE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
DISTRICT. YET...AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STORM SYSTEM MAY REMAIN
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG WINDS MAY ONLY REACH
AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. FURTHERMORE...UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
FLOW MAY CONFINED THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE SIERRA NEVADA
...NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...ON SATURDAY. YET...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIP...SLIGHT CHANCE...NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY ON SATURDAY.

AFTERWARD...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ON TO THE WEST COAST. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE PATTERN AS ANOTHER TROF
MOVING INTO CANADA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT SEE A DRAMATIC WARM UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER FORECAST AFTER THIS
WEEKENDS STORM. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS MODEL CERTAINTY DROPS OFF TOWARD DAY SEVEN AND EIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CURRENTLY PLACING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE
NEXT OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY AT
NEAR TEN PERCENT OF DEVELOPING A TROUGH PATTERN BY NEXT FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISSUE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING ON TO
THE WEST COAST AND NOT IF A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP AND NOT EXPECT A TOTALLY DRY
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INTRODUCE THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY/NOV.01/ OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971
KFAT 10-26       89:2003     57:2004     58:1927     35:1939

KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
KBFL 10-26       92:2003     58:1996     61:1959     35:1939
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KREV 241016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON TODAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 130W WILL CREATE A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR A MODERATE FIRE THREAT ACROSS
WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT
LAKE TAHOE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE, WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BECAUSE RIDGE LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AND NOT DIRECTLY CROSS-BARRIER. NONETHELESS,
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN
SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST NV, FOR GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION.

RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN NORTHWARD. STORM TOTALS BY SUNDAY MORNING OF AROUND 0.20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, AND 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH FOR NORTHEAST CA INCLUDING PLUMAS AND
LASSEN COUNTIES, AND FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000 FEET SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO
7000-7500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. JCM/MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
I MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY MID-LATE WEEK. EARLY ON, THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE JET REMAINING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK AFTER A COOL DAY MONDAY.

LATE WEEK, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WINDIER AND WETTER ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE EC CUTS THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THESE RUNS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH EACH
OTHER THE PAST 36 HOURS WHEN THE GFS WAS RIDGY AND THE EC SHOWED THE
TROUGH. I BELIEVE THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. IT
SHOWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
EC BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK. IF ANYTHING, I BELIEVE WE MAY BE UNDERDOING
IT JUST A BIT AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. LEFT TEMPS MILD AS WINDS AND
MIXING WILL OFFSET ANY COOLING ALOFT AT LEAST INITIALLY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS NEAR THE SIERRA. ANY LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
THE JET LIFTS NORTH.

SATURDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE. AFTER 12Z SAT, THE WINDS INCREASE WITH TURBULENCE AND
LLWS LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
40-45 KTS AFT 15Z POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 00Z SUN.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA WITH
MTN OBSCN. THIS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN LASSEN BY 18Z AND SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST TO I-80 BY 00Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE
SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH WITH RH AROUND
10-15%. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY AS STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LASSEN COUNTY AROUND 18Z AND THROUGH THE
I-80 CORRIDOR NEAR 00Z AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BY 04Z.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 55 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. THE AREA OF BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 IN WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
TODAY NORTH OF I-80 SO IT IS LESS OF A CONCERN THERE. WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LONGEST, RH LOOKS TO
DROP TO 15-25%. COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO GUST ALONG THE HIGHWAY
95 CORRIDOR AS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS AND THE FRONTAL TIMING IS
IDEAL FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR NV ZONES 450, 453 AND 459. I
BELIEVE 453/459 STAND THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THEY WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LONGER, BUT 450 COULD HIT FOR A WHILE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 240948
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
248 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON SATURDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY...THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MAIN
FORECAST "CONCERN" WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON
SATURDAY. ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE THE DYING REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOISTURE/QPF PROGS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS STILL WARRANTED AND WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND NOT OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE.

OTHERWISE...SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS. FOR
THIS MORNING...STRATUS/DENSE FOG HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND SOME VERY PATCHY STRATUS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...MARINE LAYER
STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...IMPACTING THE COASTAL PLAIN
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION (AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
VALLEYS). FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT THE STRATUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES (WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING).

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEN MORE
DRAMATIC COOLING SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND I-5 CORRIDOR. AT
THIS TIME...MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AND THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON THURSDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS AGREE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE)...BUT BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR THE SURFACE
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN ON THURSDAY (IF THE GFS IS CORRECT).

FORECAST-WISE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...MARINE LAYER STRATUS AS
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...JUST
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TO THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE
PREVIOUS THINKING OF JUST SOME VERY SLIGHT COOLING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A BIT FURTHER OUT FOR HALLOWEEN...THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. STILL TOO
EARLY TO "BITE" ON THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 240547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEREBY KEEPING ALL
RAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND RAIN GAGE DATA...ALL PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AND...BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND OTHER MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH OFFSHORE DEEPENS. THIS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE N BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO
REDUCE NORTH BAY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF SANTA ROSA. ANOTHER CHANGE
MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT AS THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FOG AT HALF
MOON BAY. FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
CLEARING TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE TYPICAL FOGGY N BAY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FINALLY...CLOUD COVER WAS REDUCED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...AFTER PATCHY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SPREADING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE THEN FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH BAY TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH PRESSES INLAND. IN FACT...BASED ON THE 00Z NAM...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO ADD SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SF PENINSULA AND EAST BAY.
SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE NORTH BAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY WITH COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING DRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA DIVERTS ALL PACIFIC STORMS/PRECIP TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 240547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEREBY KEEPING ALL
RAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND RAIN GAGE DATA...ALL PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AND...BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND OTHER MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH OFFSHORE DEEPENS. THIS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE N BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO
REDUCE NORTH BAY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF SANTA ROSA. ANOTHER CHANGE
MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT AS THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FOG AT HALF
MOON BAY. FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
CLEARING TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE TYPICAL FOGGY N BAY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FINALLY...CLOUD COVER WAS REDUCED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...AFTER PATCHY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SPREADING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE THEN FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH BAY TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH PRESSES INLAND. IN FACT...BASED ON THE 00Z NAM...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO ADD SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SF PENINSULA AND EAST BAY.
SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE NORTH BAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY WITH COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING DRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA DIVERTS ALL PACIFIC STORMS/PRECIP TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INLAND OR DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY OVERNIGHT...THEN VEERING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-12Z...CONTINUING UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 240512
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1010 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Synopsis...
A stalled cold front will keep a chance of light rain over  the
northern mountains overnight. Dry and warming conditions on Friday
as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Stronger weather system
will move into northern California through the weekend bringing
rain...cooler temperatures and gusty winds.

&&

.Discussion...
Digging Ern Pac trof along 140W is beginning to amplify the
downstream ridge over the SWrn CONUS. The nearly stationary cold
front across the NWrn portion of the CWA is beginning to lift NNWwd
and should be mainly affecting the coastal range and Wrn portions of
Tehama/Shasta counties overnite before lifting NW of our CWA by late
Fri morning.

Much warmer temps expected over the Nrn third to half of our CWA on
Fri as the rain and thick cloud cover will yield to sunshine. Maxes
should be near or slightly above normal over our CWA...and some 10
to 17 degrees warmer over the Nrn half of the CWA and 2 to 5 degrees
over the Srn portion of the area which had filtered sunshine on
Thu.     JHM


.Previous Discussion...

This weekend, the main weather system will move inland and bring
widespread rain and some breezy to locally windy conditions to
the region. Saturday looks to be the day with the most activity.
Winds, widespread showers and potential for afternoon/evening
isolated thunderstorms. At this time, the winds look like they`ll
be a nuisance for outdoor events and may blow holiday decorations
around. However, the slower progression of this system may result
in slightly higher winds. We will continue to monitor later runs
and see if any wind headlines are necessary. Also, the snow levels
are expected to lower to around 7000 feet Saturday night, so there
could be some light accumulations over the higher passes. Showers
will linger on Sunday, but should see decreasing showers from
south to north through the day. Precipitation amounts this weekend
should be a couple tenths in the San Joaquin Valley to up to half
an inch in the northern Sacramento Valley. The mountains could see
1-1.5 inches of liquid.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Monday will once again see a drying trend as a weak ridge builds
in behind the exiting system with temperatures rebounding to near
seasonal.

Tuesday through the end of the week, a series of weather systems
will flatten the ridge as they move through the Pacific Northwest.
These waves will result in an increase of clouds and cooler
temperatures with a chance of precipitation across the northern
mountains on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Beyond Tuesday night, the
models really begin to diverge so confidence in the Wednesday and
Thursday forecast is low. GFS rebuilds a fairly strong ridge over
the west coast Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF and GEM
dig the next upper trough into the eastern Pacific. Therefore,
kept a slight chance of showers in the mountains and near seasonal
temperatures. We will continue to monitor the models and adjust
the forecast as needed.

&&

.Aviation...

Area of light rain has lifted NWwd mainly along and N of a line from
Yolla Bolly-RDD-Lassen Park...and is forecast to remain nearly
stationary or possibly lift a little father NWwd overnight. MVFR
conditions with isolated IFR over mtns or valleys possible overnite.
VFR SKC conditions from MYV Swd. Friday will see just high thin
clouds with winds from the south between 10-15 mph in the afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSGX 240418
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY
WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER
AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WELL OFF THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...BUT CURRENTLY TRENDING
OFFSHORE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW
60S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG MAY
BRIEFLY REACH THE BEACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE KEPT OFFSHORE BY DRAINAGE FLOW.

FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEINGS TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING AND GENERATE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE
INVERSION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...SO LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT PATCHY. SOME CLEARLY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...WITH COLD
AIR CUMULUS FORMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
THIS WILL BRING AND WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
240410Z...COAST...PATCHY VERY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES
OF CIGS/LOW VIS ARE LOW AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS...BUT LOCAL CIGS
BELOW 400 FT MSL AND VIS BELOW 1 MI COULD OCCUR VCNTY
KNRS...KSAN...KCRQ AND KOKB BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MOST VIS AT/ABOVE 5 MI WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL






000
FXUS66 KLOX 240410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION AT LAX EARLY THIS
EVENING WAS ONLY AROUND 500 FT DEEP. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WERE ABSENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS S OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFF
THE COAST. N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY FORMING
ALONG AND OFF THE SLO COUNTY COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
COAST ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA THRU
FRI. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE E PAC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
MAINLY CENTRAL CA FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SAT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. IT LOOKS LIKE MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME MORE
EXTENSIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION.
CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES ON SAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A./VTU COUNTY
COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOME CLOUDINESS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE N MTN SLOPES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN. BROAD S TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAT...THEN THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE NW TO N OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS SAT
NIGHT AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
MANY AREAS ON FRI...THEN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...AND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2315Z WAS 550
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KSBP WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
13Z-17Z...AND AT KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIFR CIGS 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 240350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEREBY KEEPING ALL
RAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND RAIN GAGE DATA...ALL PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AND...BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND OTHER MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH OFFSHORE DEEPENS. THIS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE N BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO
REDUCE NORTH BAY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF SANTA ROSA. ANOTHER CHANGE
MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT AS THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FOG AT HALF
MOON BAY. FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
CLEARING TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE TYPICAL FOGGY N BAY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FINALLY...CLOUD COVER WAS REDUCED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...AFTER PATCHY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SPREADING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE THEN FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH BAY TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH PRESSES INLAND. IN FACT...BASED ON THE 00Z NAM...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO ADD SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SF PENINSULA AND EAST BAY.
SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE NORTH BAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY WITH COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING DRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA DIVERTS ALL PACIFIC STORMS/PRECIP TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SF BAY AND INLAND FROM MONTEREY BAY BY LATE
EVENING. CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT...THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY THIS
EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 06Z...LOWERING TO IFR BY 12Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 240350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEREBY KEEPING ALL
RAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND RAIN GAGE DATA...ALL PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AND...BASED ON THE
00Z NAM AND OTHER MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH OFFSHORE DEEPENS. THIS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE N BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO
REDUCE NORTH BAY RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF SANTA ROSA. ANOTHER CHANGE
MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT AS THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FOG AT HALF
MOON BAY. FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
CLEARING TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE TYPICAL FOGGY N BAY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FINALLY...CLOUD COVER WAS REDUCED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...AFTER PATCHY
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROBUST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DEEPENING OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SPREADING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE THEN FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE NORTH BAY TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH PRESSES INLAND. IN FACT...BASED ON THE 00Z NAM...AN
ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO ADD SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SF PENINSULA AND EAST BAY.
SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 IN THE NORTH BAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SOME PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY WITH COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING DRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA DIVERTS ALL PACIFIC STORMS/PRECIP TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SF BAY AND INLAND FROM MONTEREY BAY BY LATE
EVENING. CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT...THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY THIS
EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 06Z...LOWERING TO IFR BY 12Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS











000
FXUS65 KREV 240141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
641 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS DECREASING
A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE TAHOE BASIN BUT A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER EARLY INTO THE WRN NV BASIN AND RANGE. CLOUDS OVER THE
SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE PLUME
OVER THE NRN CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTH. LESSENING POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FAR NRN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KLOX 232359 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...ALL IS PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPS
BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL...ALL EXCEPT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAY`S ALONG WITH A SIMILAR CLEAR SKY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS...MEANWHILE THE NAM KEEPS US IN WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THE GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALBEIT
LIGHT AND ISOLATED...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF. LEFT CURRENT
FORECAST POPS AS IS.  OVERALL NOT MUCH MEASURABLE EXPECTED AT
ALL...IF ANY... WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 80 TO
60 DM GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO DROP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY
VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO DROP TEMPS FURTHER. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PILE INTO THE NORTH SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY. MARINE LAYER ALSO DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO EXPECT A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT COASTAL STRATUS.

SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT...FIRST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BY
SUNDAY SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2315Z WAS 550
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 25 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KSBP WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
13Z-17Z...AND AT KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIFR CIGS 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU FRI.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...23/130 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 232334
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES SHOULD
KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD...HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
RETURN. ALREADY SEEING SOME STRATUS OFFSHORE BELOW THE HIGH CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST DO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NORTH BAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS INLAND INTO THE NORTH BAY. FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DOWN ALONG THEN CENTRAL COAST. AT THIS TIME...THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES DOWN THE COASTLINE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP ONE-QUARTER TO NEARLY ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY.

WHILE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON A MORE
CONCISE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY EVENING AND
THEN LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SF BAY AND INLAND FROM MONTEREY BAY BY LATE
EVENING. CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY
LATE TONIGHT...THEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 07-08Z...CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY THIS
EVENING...TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 06Z...LOWERING TO IFR BY 12Z.
CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 232245
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
345 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Synopsis...
A stalled cold front will keep showers over the northern
Sacramento valley this evening. Dry and warming conditions on
Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Saturday the
main weather system will swing into northern California and bring
more rain and cooler temperatures to the region through the
weekend. Dry weather will start the work week, but more weather
systems will move into the Pacific northwest Tuesday with Northern
California seeing clouds and some light precipitation through mid week.

&&
A stalled cold front is resulting in a decent band of rain across
northern Sacramento valley, from Chico north, and adjacent
mountains. This front will shift north and west this evening,
shunting the showers out of the region by day break, as the main weather
system digs off the West Coast. Friday will be under high pressure
with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rebounding back to
normal.

This weekend, the main weather system will move inland and bring
widespread rain and some breezy to locally windy conditions to
the region. Saturday looks to be the day with the most activity.
Winds, widespread showers and potential for afternoon/evening
isolated thunderstorms. At this time, the winds look like they`ll
be a nuisance for outdoor events and may blow holiday decorations
around. However, the slower progression of this system may result
in slightly higher winds. We will continue to monitor later runs
and see if any wind headlines are necessary. Also, the snow levels
are expected to lower to around 7000 feet Saturday night, so there
could be some light accumulations over the higher passes. Showers
will linger on Sunday, but should see decreasing showers from
south to north through the day. Precipitation amounts this weekend
should be a couple tenths in the San Joaquin Valley to up to half
an inch in the northern Sacramento Valley. The mountains could see
1-1.5 inches of liquid.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Monday will once again see a drying trend as a weak ridge builds
in behind the exiting system with temperatures rebounding to near
seasonal.

Tuesday through the end of the week, a series of weather systems
will flatten the ridge as they move through the Pacific Northwest.
These waves will result in an increase of clouds and cooler
temperatures with a chance of precipitation across the northern
mountains on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Beyond Tuesday night, the
models really begin to diverge so confidence in the Wednesday and
Thursday forecast is low. GFS rebuilds a fairly strong ridge over
the west coast Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF and GEM
dig the next upper trough into the eastern Pacific. Therefore,
kept a slight chance of showers in the mountains and near seasonal
temperatures. We will continue to monitor the models and adjust
the forecast as needed.

&&

.Aviation...

A stalled cold front over northern Sacramento valley is producing a
persistent band of rain from Chico north to the Oregon border.
This rain is resulting in MVFR conditions with isolated IFR in
stronger cells. The rain will shift north and west between 02-08z
and remain along the coastal range and locations west overnight.
Ceilings will lift and shift west overnight as drier air moves
into the region. Friday will see just high thin clouds with winds
from the south between 10-15 mph in the afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 232243
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
343 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SAGGING COLD FRONT IS STALLING OVER TRINITY AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. TONIGHT THIS WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO
COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM OVER 5 INCHES ON COOSKIE
MOUNTAIN IN THE KING RANGE TO AN INCH AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND IN
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. SOUTHERN MENDOCINO HAS BEEN THE LOWEST
TODAY WITH UKIAH RECEIVING LESS THAN A THENTH OF AN INCH.

THE FRONT HAS STARTED TO STALL OUT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
LINE ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...TRINITY COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY. THIS MAY SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THEN THIS
EVENING WILL START TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING THIS WILL PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS
PUSHES NORTH THE RAIN WILL END BEHIND IT. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED
SLIGHTLY ON THIS AND THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ON FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS...BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THIS
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND ALMOST DRIZZLE. FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MAY ALLOW THE COAST TO
WARM UP INTO THE 70S WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALL MODELS BRINGING THE RAIN IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND LOOK TO
PEAK SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE
RIDGES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST...BUT HELD OFF ON
ISSUING THAT WITH IT STILL BEING A DAY OR SO OUT AND CONFIDENCENOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS SO FAR THIS FALL GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
IN ELEVATED AREAS SUCH AS KNEELAND AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE COAST
IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY VARY WIDELY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. THIS MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST TO THE WATERS IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO THE SHOWERS OVER
DEL NORTE COUNTY A BIT LONGER THAN THE GFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE MAINLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS...WHILE THE COAST MAY SEE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY. MKK

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU)...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS MANY
INTERIOR VALLEY`S WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATER ACROSS NORTHER AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT THIS FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING LIGHT MISTY RAIN. THIS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT SOME POINTS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TAFS
TONIGHT. TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTH THE RAIN WILL
END AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO LIFT THE
CIGS ALONG AT THE AIRPORTS. GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. MKK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER A WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
 DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. A GALE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ANS MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING DUE TO THE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KREV 232225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KPSR 232208
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY 8KT OR LESS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWING ESTABLISHED
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS








000
FXUS66 KHNX 232115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS PROVIDING DRY AND GENERALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE SHUNTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PAC
NORTHWEST. 24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS HERE ARE MOSTLY RUNNING UP
AROUND 2-6 DEGREES EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS IT
IS PROGGED TO SWING ONSHORE SATURDAY AND PUSH EAST OF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO MOSTLY ANOTHER
MISS FOR OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND IN THE YOSEMITE
VICINITY SATURDAY. AS WITH THE RECENT PASSING SYSTEM...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SLOPES SATURDAY EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSING TROUGH.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE
BUT GENERALLY SHOW THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY MIDWEEK.


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 232107
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
207 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES SHOULD
KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD...HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
RETURN. ALREADY SEEING SOME STRATUS OFFSHORE BELOW THE HIGH CLOUDS
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST DO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NORTH BAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS INLAND INTO THE NORTH BAY. FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA DOWN ALONG THEN CENTRAL COAST. AT THIS TIME...THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTH BAY AND
ALONG THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES DOWN THE COASTLINE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP ONE-QUARTER TO NEARLY ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY.

WHILE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE ON A MORE
CONCISE SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA AS
A LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE REDUCED CEILINGS AFTER
07Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND WORSEN AROUND 13Z FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:04 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 232031
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
130 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...ALL IS PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPS
BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL...ALL EXCEPT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE
OFFSHORE FLOW HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO TODAY`S ALONG WITH A SIMILAR CLEAR SKY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT
LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS...MEANWHILE THE NAM KEEPS US IN WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THE GFS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALBEIT
LIGHT AND ISOLATED...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH...BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF. LEFT CURRENT
FORECAST POPS AS IS.  OVERALL NOT MUCH MEASURABLE EXPECTED AT
ALL...IF ANY... WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 80 TO
60 DM GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO DROP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY
VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH ON SUNDAY TO DROP TEMPS FURTHER. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PILE INTO THE NORTH SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY. MARINE LAYER ALSO DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO EXPECT A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT COASTAL STRATUS.

SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT...FIRST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BY
SUNDAY SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EACH MODEL
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. EACH FORECAST PEAK RIDGE
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DM AND ABOUT 586 DM OVER SOCAL...BUT THE GFS PUTS
THE AXIS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF SOCAL...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AXIS
FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD NOT WARM TEMPS QUITE AS MUCH. THE GFS HAS
SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED CONSISTENTLY FROM RUN TO RUN
UP TO ITS LATEST SOLUTION. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY COULD BE BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND VALLEYS.

THE OTHER STORY TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS NIGHTLY OCCURRENCES OF SUNDOWNERS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN THE EC STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS...WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AND
DRY FUELS...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA
AND DEPENDING ON HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BY 24/04Z AND THEN MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 24/16Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BY 24/22Z. MARINE INVERSION
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA.
INVERSION AND CLOUD FIELD WILL DIFFER LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/04Z THEN RELATIVELY FLAT
GRADIENT BETWEEN 24/04-24/17Z THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AFTER
24/17Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1545Z WAS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2373 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...23/130 PM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KSGX 232019
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD...SPREADING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SE
OVER THE REGION...AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY
NEAR SOME BEACHES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. AT 1 PM
PDT...WIND/GUST REPORTS WERE UNDER 20 MPH.

FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RUNNING AROUND TEN DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
SOME VALLEYS. ANY MARINE INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON.

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP MAY CONDENSE
INTO PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EVENING...BUT COLD AIR DRAINAGE
DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PUSH IT BACK OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AS THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRENDS BACK ONSHORE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING...THE DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR
COASTAL AREAS...SO FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM THEN. BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FOG SINCE A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
MAY BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT THAT TIME AND LIMIT RADIATIVE
COOLING AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL TURN COOLER ON SAT WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...AND MUCH COOLER ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW THROUGH FRI...THEN
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BY OVER CA/NV ON
SUN MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES MON. THIS WILL KEEP SOCAL IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND...THE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

NO BIG WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FOG
COULD BECOME DENSE ON SAT MORNING ALONG THE COAST FOR A TIME...AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE
PASSES INTO THE DESERTS LATER SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST...WHILE THE
00Z GFS/GEM RUNS SHOWED A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER SOCAL. A QUICK LOOK AT
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION NOW LOOKS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS.
HOPEFULLY SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MILD
TO WARM WEATHER FOR LATE OCTOBER AS WELL AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
231930Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
1230 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS












000
FXUS66 KMTR 231801
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA AS
A LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE REDUCED CEILINGS AFTER
07Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND WORSEN AROUND 13Z FRI AND PERIST THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231801
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA AS
A LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE RAIN WILL NOT MAKE IT TO ANY TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY RAIN IN THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE 12Z FRI TIME FRAME. THESE LOWER
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE REDUCED CEILINGS AFTER
07Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND WORSEN AROUND 13Z FRI AND PERIST THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:51 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231720
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BY 24/04Z AND THEN MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 24/16Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BY 24/22Z. MARINE INVERSION
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA.
INVERSION AND CLOUD FIELD WILL DIFFER LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/04Z THEN RELATIVELY FLAT
GRADIENT BETWEEN 24/04-24/17Z THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AFTER
24/17Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1545Z WAS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2373 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 231635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 231635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 231631
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
931 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND KEPT ONLY A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. FURTHER SOUTH...WE
CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES
ARE MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS
TIME AND NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY
AUTOMATED GAUGES. EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURN-OFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS65 KPSR 231550
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND CALM MORNING ACROSS THE DESERTS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOMED OUT
IN THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GREATER METRO PHOENIX AREA...WITH A
FEW UPPER 50S NOTED IN CHANDLER...MESA...GLENDALE...AND BUCKEYE.
CLEAR SKIES AS OF CURRENT WRITING THIS MORNING ACROSS PHOENIX WITH
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY AND A
WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA









000
FXUS66 KSGX 231519
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
819 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD...SPREADING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SE
OVER THE REGION...AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SFC BASED INVERSION AND WEAK WINDS FROM THE
SFC THROUGH 15K FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. AT 8 AM
PDT...OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF REMOTE SPOTS...WINDS/GUST REPORTS WERE
UNDER 15 MPH.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WARM AND DRY DAYS SHAPING UP ACROSS SOCAL
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. ANY MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
CONDENSE INTO PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT COLD AIR DRAINAGE DURING THE
NIGHT SHOULD PUSH IT BACK OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRENDS BACK ONSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THE DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR COASTAL AREAS
SO FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM THEN. OTHERWISE...COOLER ON SAT AND MUCH
COOLER ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW THROUGH FRI...THEN
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BY OVER CA/NV ON
SUN MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES MON. THIS WILL KEEP SOCAL IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND...THE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE GFS RUNS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE...
WHILE THE 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER SOCAL. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
231500Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS









000
FXUS66 KSTO 231158
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
458 AM PDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Synopsis...
A weak Pacific cold front will drag slowly across NORCAL bringing
light precipitation north of about I-80 today and tonight. A brief
break Friday will be followed by another frontal passage on
Saturday with thunderstorms possible north of the Sacramento
area. Drying and warming most areas early next week then another
frontal system moving in around Tuesday. Weather model confidence
decreases by mid week but more light precip possible next Wednesday
and Thursday mainly north of Sacramento.

&&

A weak Pacific cold front dragging across the northwest corner of
the state is bringing light precipitation from about Chico
northward. The precipitation is forecast to continue moving very
slowly to the southeast with light precipitation reaching
southward to about the Sacramento area by 00z this afternoon.
Cloud cover and a slightly cooler airmass will bring slightly
cooler temperatures today. High pressure is forecast to rebound
northward over the western U.S on Friday limiting any
precipitation to the far northwest corner of the state. Clearing
skies and a warming airmass under the ridge will bring daytime
highs to near or a little above normal Friday. A Pacific low
pressure system approaching the coast will bring a threat of
precipitation inland Friday night with a chance of rain and high
elevation snow across the entire forecast area by Saturday
afternoon and evening. Precipitable water proggs show a moderate
amount of moisture associated with this system with moderate
dynamics but it will take mountain orograhics to squeeze out more
than light precipitation. 500 mb winds associated with the main
frontal passage early Saturday are progged to top 60 mph so
ridgetops may see some fairly gusty winds. Stability proggs show
enough instability behind the cold front for a threat of
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening across the northern
CWA. As the upper trough passes through the Pacific Northwest
Saturday night and Sunday, winds will decrease and precipitation
will shift to the northeast. Daytime highs over the weekend will
remain well below normal under the cool airmass behind the front.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Monday looks like a dry day with models rebuilding a ridge over
the eastern Pacific and west coast. Daytime highs may push back up
to near normal. A shortwave trough moving through the Paciiic
Northwest will flatten the west coast ridge on Tuesday bringing
clouds and cooler temperatures with a chance of precipitaton
across the northern mountains. After Tuesday...models really begin
to diverge so confidense in the day 6 plus forecast not real high.
GFS rebuilds a fairly strong ridge over the west coast Wednesday
and Thursday and has been doing so over the last couple of runs.
ECMWF and GEM dig the next upper trough into the eastern Pacific
Wednesday and Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a
continued threat of precipitation especially across the northern
portions of the forecast area. Have leaned towards the more stable
ECMWF and GEM for now but will continue to watch model
developments in this time frame.

&&

.Aviation...

Cold front moving on shore today with increasing rain spreading
into the northern Sacramento Valley, peaking around 15z-21z. This
will bring some lcl visibilities reduced to MVFR levels, IFR in
the mountains. Local precipitation will stay mainly north of I80 today,
and will decrease in intensity by 00z. Mid level cloud cover will
increase over the rest of the area. Winds around 10 kt or less
expected today for TAF sites. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 231138
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
438 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL HILLS OF THE SFO EXTENDING INTO
SFO AND OAK AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOWER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS AND THEREFORE BURNOFF
TIME IS NOT UNTIL 18-19Z DESPITE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NO STRATUS REPORTED IN THE MRY BAY
AREA THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THERE MAY BE AN OFFSHORE DRAINAGE WIND
THAT IS KEEPING THE COASTAL STRATUS OUT OF THE BAY. FT ORD
PROFILER SUPPORTS THIS. THEREFORE FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 231131
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
431 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA
DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...A COLD FRONT SINKING TO THE SSE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOW, STALL, AND WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT POPS AND QPF UP
OVER THE STALLED AREA THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR RAIN, EVEN AS IT WEAKENS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT AND STRENGTHEN THIS WEAK BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO AROUND AN INCH. ONCE THIS
WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF NW CAL, THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE
RATHER NICE, ALBEIT BREEZY.

FRIDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF
A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS
WILL HAVE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS IN THE 925 TO 850 MB
LAYER INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH THE COMING COLD FRONT. WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
ACROSS NW CAL, BUT THE MAIN CHUNK OF WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY HAVE PEAK GUSTS INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE. WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY ALSO BE GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT
WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DOING THAT. WITH A
STRONG WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO INCREASE AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT BAY REGION WILL HAVE SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPS DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FORTUNA
AND RIO DELL AREAS. DESPITE THE WARMTH IT WILL BE BREEZY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TEMPS REACHING THIS HIGH, SO HAVE KEPT THEM
IN THE LOW 70S FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHING THIS TODAY AND
HOW MODELS HANDLE IT. WHILE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, SKIES WILL SHOW SOME CLEARING AS WELL. FRIDAY HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CAL.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING ISSUES OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS RESOLVING PRECISE LANDFALL AND THIS MORNINGS
RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT. THE GFS AND EC HAVE SLOWED TO NEAR WHAT THE
NAM WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY, BUT THE NAM HAS SLOWED EVEN FURTHER AS
WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT A BIT MORE, BRINGING IT IN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR QPF WITH THE FRONT STUCK
NEAR THE CNRFC QPF WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD SINCE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG MOISTURE TAP
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SHOWING A HINT OF INSTABILITY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONG JET AND A DIGGING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME STRONG
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD POOL WILL ALSO FOLLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THESE STRONG SHOWERS TO BRING SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO AROUND 5KFT DURING THIS TIME. FOR THIS
EVENT QPF SHOULD AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES IN UPSLOPE PRONE
TERRAIN.

BY SUNDAY A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON SUNDAY. OVERALL, LOOK FOR SOME RAIN WITH A
WARM FRONT TODAY, STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY, AND HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. BFG

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU)...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DRYING THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 4 C. MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY THURSDAY...MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS YET ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. KEPT POPS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTH. STP


&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK OVER UKI THIS MORNING CAUSING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO ACV
AND CEC. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN SHOWERS BEHIND THIS FRONT
THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE DAY AT MOST AREAS OF NW CAL WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR DURING HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL BE BRIEF SHOTS OF VFR, BUT AM
NOT GOING FOR THIS HEAVILY IN THE FORECAST. BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 10 TO
11 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 13 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...LET THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN ITS` PLACE...IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA`S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT THE LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ450-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231130
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1125Z...
THE INVERSION AT 1110Z WAS BASED AT THE SFC. THE INVERSION TOP WAS
2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z
FRI.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.


&&

.MARINE...23/330 AM...
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KHNX 231040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASED WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR INDICATING A FAST QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN ALL THE WAY INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. HOWEVER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING THIS MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWFA AND
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTICED OVER CENTRAL CA. THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A CONTINUATION
OF THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY. 06Z WRF INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST NEAR 135W ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMING
ACROSS OUR CWFA AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH WAA
TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA
WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA...BUT A CHANCE OF RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH AND PUSHES ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9000 FEET OVER YOSEMITE PARK SATRUDAY
AFTERNOON LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ABOVE 9000 FEET IN AND AROUND YOSEMITE PARK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE CA COAST. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RETURN TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z AND 06Z
GFS AS WELL AS THE 00Z HOLD THE RIDGE INTACT OVER CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO CA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AND THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) IS INDICATING VERY A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK
FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LACK OF ENSEMBLE MEMBER CONSENSUS. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE MODEL RUN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS VERY LOW. OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS NO STRONG
MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE OVER OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 231019
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 231019
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY MARKS THE LATEST 100 DEGREE READING ON RECORD IN
PHOENIX...WHICH OCCURRED IN 2003. REACHING 100 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
YEAR IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FOR TODAY...WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD...YIELDING A PROMINENT
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM
TIME-TO-TIME AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 231009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA











000
FXUS66 KMTR 231009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA











000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KSGX 230958
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE
FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A
PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF
ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND
SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY
AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN
TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO
POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS
RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS
NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS
A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL
AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON






000
FXUS66 KSGX 230958
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE
FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A
PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF
ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND
SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY
AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN
TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO
POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS
RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS
NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS
A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL
AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230951
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...23/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230951
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...23/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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