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000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OVER ARIZONA ALLOWING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S INLAND. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
A CONCERN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW TO MODERATE. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE
COASTAL ZONES BUT THE INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM...NEARING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AGAIN.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE
THE THERMOMETER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
272100Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AT THE COAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS EXACT TIMING. INITIALLY IT
WILL BE LOW WITH CIGS AROUND 100-400 FEET MSL AND AREAS OF VIS
1/4SM. THIS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AND
SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/23
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OVER ARIZONA ALLOWING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S INLAND. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
A CONCERN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW TO MODERATE. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE
COASTAL ZONES BUT THE INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM...NEARING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AGAIN.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE
THE THERMOMETER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
272100Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AT THE COAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS EXACT TIMING. INITIALLY IT
WILL BE LOW WITH CIGS AROUND 100-400 FEET MSL AND AREAS OF VIS
1/4SM. THIS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AND
SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/23
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OVER ARIZONA ALLOWING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S INLAND. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
A CONCERN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW TO MODERATE. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE
COASTAL ZONES BUT THE INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM...NEARING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AGAIN.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE
THE THERMOMETER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
272100Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AT THE COAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS EXACT TIMING. INITIALLY IT
WILL BE LOW WITH CIGS AROUND 100-400 FEET MSL AND AREAS OF VIS
1/4SM. THIS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AND
SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/23
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 272035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST OVER ARIZONA ALLOWING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S INLAND. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
A CONCERN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW TO MODERATE. SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE
COASTAL ZONES BUT THE INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM...NEARING OR BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AGAIN.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE
THE THERMOMETER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA
VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
272100Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AT THE COAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ITS EXACT TIMING. INITIALLY IT
WILL BE LOW WITH CIGS AROUND 100-400 FEET MSL AND AREAS OF VIS
1/4SM. THIS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY AND
SCATTER OUT BY 15-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/23
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 272007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 271809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT FRIDAY... A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK
PUSHED ONSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH LED TO POCKETS OF LIFR VISBYS AND
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THAT INITIAL OVERNIGHT PUSH INLAND HAS NOW RETREATED THIS
MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO A NORTH AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. PEAK WIND GUSTS 20-30KT POSBL. GOES-W CLOUD
THICKNESS IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK ALONG CALI SHORELINE
THICKENING FROM 300-500FT TO OVER 2000FT IN THE VICINITY OF PT
REYES AND THE BAY AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS DEEPENING LAYER MAY MAKE ANOTHER PUSH ONSHORE WITH STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT... AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHALLOWER LEVEL
LAYER IS RETREATING. THUS... CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS RETURNING
INTO THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO 00Z.

LATEST WRF SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS...AROUND 00Z...IN A
SUMMER LIKE SCENARIO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW TO
MODERATE. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN NO LATER THAN 04Z FOR A
MAJORITY OF TAF LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING KLVK AND POSBLY KSJC).

VICINITY OF KSFO... BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS
25-30 KT. VFR CIGS THROUGH 00Z... THEN DETERIORATING CIGS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EARLY STRATUS RETURN PRIOR TO 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON... THEN DETERIORATING CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY STRATUS RETURN PRIOR TO 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A DRY
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT FRIDAY... A SHALLOW STRATUS DECK
PUSHED ONSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH LED TO POCKETS OF LIFR VISBYS AND
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THAT INITIAL OVERNIGHT PUSH INLAND HAS NOW RETREATED THIS
MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO A NORTH AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. PEAK WIND GUSTS 20-30KT POSBL. GOES-W CLOUD
THICKNESS IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK ALONG CALI SHORELINE
THICKENING FROM 300-500FT TO OVER 2000FT IN THE VICINITY OF PT
REYES AND THE BAY AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS DEEPENING LAYER MAY MAKE ANOTHER PUSH ONSHORE WITH STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT... AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHALLOWER LEVEL
LAYER IS RETREATING. THUS... CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS RETURNING
INTO THE BAY AREA PRIOR TO 00Z.

LATEST WRF SUGGESTS AN EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS...AROUND 00Z...IN A
SUMMER LIKE SCENARIO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW TO
MODERATE. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN NO LATER THAN 04Z FOR A
MAJORITY OF TAF LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING KLVK AND POSBLY KSJC).

VICINITY OF KSFO... BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS
25-30 KT. VFR CIGS THROUGH 00Z... THEN DETERIORATING CIGS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EARLY STRATUS RETURN PRIOR TO 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON... THEN DETERIORATING CIGS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY STRATUS RETURN PRIOR TO 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:42 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A DRY
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIXED SWELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 271733 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/13Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA. MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE LA
BASIN AND NEAR .5FT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD WAS OVERCAST WEST AND NORTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE
INVERSION WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .8KFT SATURDAY MORNING AND
BROKEN OVER THE BIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/04Z AND AFTER 28/19Z OTHERWISE MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1545Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 2601 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY 4SM BR BETWEEN 28/08-28/11Z AND A
CHANCE CIGS 003 AND VSBY 1SM BR BETWEEN 28/11-28/16Z THEN 5-6SM HZ
BETWEEN 28/16-28/20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 28/13Z AND A CHANCE VSBY 6SM HZ AFTER 28/13Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THEN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH
GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271733 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/13Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA. MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE LA
BASIN AND NEAR .5FT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD WAS OVERCAST WEST AND NORTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE
INVERSION WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .8KFT SATURDAY MORNING AND
BROKEN OVER THE BIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/04Z AND AFTER 28/19Z OTHERWISE MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1545Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 2601 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY 4SM BR BETWEEN 28/08-28/11Z AND A
CHANCE CIGS 003 AND VSBY 1SM BR BETWEEN 28/11-28/16Z THEN 5-6SM HZ
BETWEEN 28/16-28/20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 28/13Z AND A CHANCE VSBY 6SM HZ AFTER 28/13Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THEN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH
GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 271733 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/13Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA. MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE LA
BASIN AND NEAR .5FT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD WAS OVERCAST WEST AND NORTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE
INVERSION WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .8KFT SATURDAY MORNING AND
BROKEN OVER THE BIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/04Z AND AFTER 28/19Z OTHERWISE MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1545Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 2601 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY 4SM BR BETWEEN 28/08-28/11Z AND A
CHANCE CIGS 003 AND VSBY 1SM BR BETWEEN 28/11-28/16Z THEN 5-6SM HZ
BETWEEN 28/16-28/20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 28/13Z AND A CHANCE VSBY 6SM HZ AFTER 28/13Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THEN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH
GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 271733 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/13Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA. MARINE INVERSION WAS NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE LA
BASIN AND NEAR .5FT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD WAS OVERCAST WEST AND NORTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE
INVERSION WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .8KFT SATURDAY MORNING AND
BROKEN OVER THE BIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 28/04Z AND AFTER 28/19Z OTHERWISE MIXED WEAK
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1545Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 2601 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE VSBY 4SM BR BETWEEN 28/08-28/11Z AND A
CHANCE CIGS 003 AND VSBY 1SM BR BETWEEN 28/11-28/16Z THEN 5-6SM HZ
BETWEEN 28/16-28/20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 28/13Z AND A CHANCE VSBY 6SM HZ AFTER 28/13Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THEN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED
SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH
GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSGX 271648
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SOME OF THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WERE AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS
PACE AT 9 AM. MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS. COASTAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TURN MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE COASTAL ZONES BUT THE
INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

271500Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 11Z
SATURDAY. TRUE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET MSL AND VIS
AOB 2SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271648
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SOME OF THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WERE AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS
PACE AT 9 AM. MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS. COASTAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TURN MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE COASTAL ZONES BUT THE
INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

271500Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 11Z
SATURDAY. TRUE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET MSL AND VIS
AOB 2SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271648
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SOME OF THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WERE AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS
PACE AT 9 AM. MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS. COASTAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TURN MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE COASTAL ZONES BUT THE
INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

271500Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 11Z
SATURDAY. TRUE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET MSL AND VIS
AOB 2SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271648
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SOME OF THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WERE AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS
PACE AT 9 AM. MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS. COASTAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TURN MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE COASTAL ZONES BUT THE
INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

271500Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 11Z
SATURDAY. TRUE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET MSL AND VIS
AOB 2SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271648
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY. COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY FOR MINOR WARMING AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SOME OF THE
VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WERE AHEAD OF YESTERDAYS
PACE AT 9 AM. MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 80S AND 90S WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN VALLEYS. COASTAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S DUE TO THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND A SLOWLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

THE AIRMASS WAS STILL VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S
MOST AREAS...BUT WERE INCREASING NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEWPOINT
HAD RISEN TO 55 AT IMPERIAL BEACH AT 9 AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TURN MORE STRONGLY ONSHORE AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE COASTAL ZONES BUT THE
INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER WILL REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLING TO ALL AREAS ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. BEHIND THIS RIDGE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE DUE TO A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

271500Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 11Z
SATURDAY. TRUE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET MSL AND VIS
AOB 2SM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL IMPACT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF
ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KLOX 271629 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
928 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS.
OTHEWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS WITH
IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING...AND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY BY LATE EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 05Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271629 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
928 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IF MOVING EAST...HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS...LOCALLY DENSE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DAILY BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND WILL ACTUALLY TURN ONSHORE
FOR A CHANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AROUND COASTAL AREAS AS A RESULT AND THIS TREND IS SHOWING UP IN 24
HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS...MOST OF THE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND STRETCHING DOWN THE COAST INTO THE VTU COAST. BUT DESPITE THE
COOLING THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH HERE AND THERE.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO COOL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG IS LURKING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
HAS CREPT INTO MORRO BAY AND ALONG SOME BEACHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE IT STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW THERE.

THE RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST OF US TOMORROW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CENTRAL
COAST AND LESS OF A CHANCE L.A. COAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS L.A. AND POSSIBLY INTO THE VTU
COUNTY COAST SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OFF THE COAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS.
OTHEWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS WITH
IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING...AND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY BY LATE EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 05Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY FROM
POINT PIEDRAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND INCLUDING THE WEST HALF OF SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. A MIXED SWELL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 SECONDS...SOUTH SWELL AT 19 SECONDS AND LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8 SECONDS. THE COMBINED SEAS FROM
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL PEAK 10 TO 12 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TUESDAY WHILE A FRESH
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MIXES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT FRIDAY...SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS
MORNING WILL BE FOG. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS LED TO A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. PROFILERS AND SODARS INDICATE
A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHALLOW NATURE HAS
ALSO PRODUCED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LOCALLY INLAND TO BOTH BAYS. A HANDFUL OF
SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE.

BURN OFF OF THE CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE GRADUAL DESPITE
THE SHALLOW NATURE THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW (SFO-SAC
GRADIENT IS UP).

THAT BEING SAID...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN TODAY. THE 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGE WILL BE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IT SHOULD STILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...AND UP TO
THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 271548
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER A VERY WARM AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...WHICH SAW
HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SHARPLY LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AT MANY RURAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. SOME OF THE COOLER
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...AND THE MORE REMOTE
AREAS OF THE SE VALLEY SAW LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S...ALMOST 40
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM AND 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 19-22C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS IN THE TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS
BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV
IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-
584DM RANGE WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL
SUITES SUGGESTING H5 HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE
DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EAST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY
COMING CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271548
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER A VERY WARM AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...WHICH SAW
HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SHARPLY LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AT MANY RURAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. SOME OF THE COOLER
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...AND THE MORE REMOTE
AREAS OF THE SE VALLEY SAW LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S...ALMOST 40
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM AND 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 19-22C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS IN THE TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS
BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV
IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-
584DM RANGE WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL
SUITES SUGGESTING H5 HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE
DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EAST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY
COMING CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271548
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER A VERY WARM AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...WHICH SAW
HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SHARPLY LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AT MANY RURAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. SOME OF THE COOLER
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...AND THE MORE REMOTE
AREAS OF THE SE VALLEY SAW LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S...ALMOST 40
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM AND 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 19-22C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS IN THE TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS
BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV
IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-
584DM RANGE WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL
SUITES SUGGESTING H5 HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE
DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EAST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY
COMING CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271548
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER A VERY WARM AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...WHICH SAW
HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SHARPLY LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AT MANY RURAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. SOME OF THE COOLER
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...AND THE MORE REMOTE
AREAS OF THE SE VALLEY SAW LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S...ALMOST 40
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM AND 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 19-22C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO REFLECT CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS IN THE TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS
BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV
IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-
584DM RANGE WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL
SUITES SUGGESTING H5 HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE
DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EAST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY
COMING CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 271540
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
840 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
No changes expected for today`s forecast. Upper level ridge axis
will continue to shift east as trough approaches from offshroe.
Most of the area will see sunny skies and near record or record
high temperatures today. A few showers may move into Shasta County by
the late evening hours but any accumulations will be scattered and
light. CEO

.Previous Discussion...
High pressure continues to dominate over California early this
morning. Satellite imagery shows that the upper level ridge axis
has shifted east into the Great Basin as a trough approaches the
West Coast.

For today, skies will remain mostly clear across the forecast
area, though we should begin to see increasing clouds from the
northwest in the afternoon and evening. With the approaching
front, we may begin to see a modest Delta Breeze develop in the
mid to late afternoon timeframe, but this shouldn`t significantly
impact today`s highs. Highs are still expected to reach the lower
to mid 80s across the Valley today, with 60s and 70s over the
mountains. Several daily high temperatures records will likely be
broken. Today`s records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83 at
Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac.

We`ll see a bit more cooling on Saturday as the trough slowly
moves through the region. A few showers will be possible Friday
night into early Sat along the Shasta County mountains, and
Saturday and Sunday afternoons along the Sierra south of Tahoe.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the rest of the
weekend into early next week.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Dry weather with daytime highs ranging 5-10 degrees above normal
expected for the extended forecast. A weak trough will move into the
Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning and brush far NorCal which
will lower daytime highs compared to Monday`s highs. Only a slight
variation to temperatures Wednesday into Friday. Valley highs will
generally be mid 70s to near 80. For higher terrain, expect mid
50s near the Sierra Crest to the low 70s in the foothills. JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will continue today. Surface winds in the Central
Valley will generally be less than 10 kts for much of today. However,
a weak delta breeze is expected to develop late afternoon which
may slightly enhance winds in the delta region into Stockton and
the Sac Metro region between aft 00z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 271505 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
616 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
AROUND TRUCKEE. THE FOG DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS A
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AGO...BUT WILL STILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NEAR THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY OF TRUCKEE THROUGH 8-9 AM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND
HIGHER RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 271505 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
616 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
AROUND TRUCKEE. THE FOG DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS A
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AGO...BUT WILL STILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NEAR THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY OF TRUCKEE THROUGH 8-9 AM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND
HIGHER RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 271505 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
616 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
AROUND TRUCKEE. THE FOG DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS A
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AGO...BUT WILL STILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NEAR THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY OF TRUCKEE THROUGH 8-9 AM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND
HIGHER RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 271316
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
616 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
AROUND TRUCKEE. THE FOG DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS A
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AGO...BUT WILL STILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NEAR THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY OF TRUCKEE THROUGH 8-9 AM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271316
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
616 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
AROUND TRUCKEE. THE FOG DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS A
COUPLE OF MORNINGS AGO...BUT WILL STILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY
ALONG HIGHWAY 267 NEAR THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY OF TRUCKEE THROUGH 8-9 AM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271158 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS.
OTHEWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS WITH
IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING...AND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY BY LATE EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 05Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 271158 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS.
OTHEWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS WITH
IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
EVENING...AND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY BY LATE EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
TONIGHT WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 05Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271151
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 271151
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271151
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271151
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...IMPACTING KSNS AND KMRY. A LARGE FIELD OF
STRATUS ALSO IS PRESENT OVER OCEAN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
THIS HOUR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT MAY PUSH STRATUS INTO THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PROMOTING MODERATE
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH STRATUS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GROUND FOG WILL REDUCE VIS TO AROUND
1/4SM THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 1600Z.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SCT007-012 WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AND EARLY RETURN OF BKN008 IS LIKELY BY
0200Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 271129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
429 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SUGGESTING H5
HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY COMING CLOSE TO OR
ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 271129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
429 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SUGGESTING H5
HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY COMING CLOSE TO OR
ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
333 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH SOME
WARMING...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BECOME QUITE LIGHT TO NEAR NEUTRAL
LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY MEANWHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST AS HOT AS Y`DAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ALTHOUGH
TEMP PROFILE ALOFT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
WELCOME MARINE INTRUSION...SHALLOW BUT STRONG MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE COASTAL STRIP SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG...OCCASIONALLY
DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL BE
HOT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS EVEN A BIT HOTTER
WITH THE COACHELLA VALLEY LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MODERATE DIURNAL
ONSHORE PUSHES EACH DAY. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS BY...OTHERWISE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
28/0000Z. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES AROUND 500 FT MSL COULD
RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFT 28/1200Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LAYER WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

300 AM...A SOUTH SWELL IS GETTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 271034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
333 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH SOME
WARMING...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BECOME QUITE LIGHT TO NEAR NEUTRAL
LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY MEANWHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST AS HOT AS Y`DAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ALTHOUGH
TEMP PROFILE ALOFT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
WELCOME MARINE INTRUSION...SHALLOW BUT STRONG MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE COASTAL STRIP SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG...OCCASIONALLY
DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL BE
HOT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS EVEN A BIT HOTTER
WITH THE COACHELLA VALLEY LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MODERATE DIURNAL
ONSHORE PUSHES EACH DAY. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS BY...OTHERWISE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
28/0000Z. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES AROUND 500 FT MSL COULD
RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFT 28/1200Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LAYER WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

300 AM...A SOUTH SWELL IS GETTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271034
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
333 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH SOME
WARMING...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BECOME QUITE LIGHT TO NEAR NEUTRAL
LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY MEANWHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
JUST AS HOT AS Y`DAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ALTHOUGH
TEMP PROFILE ALOFT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
WELCOME MARINE INTRUSION...SHALLOW BUT STRONG MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE COASTAL STRIP SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG...OCCASIONALLY
DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND AND DESERT LOCATIONS WILL BE
HOT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER DESERTS EVEN A BIT HOTTER
WITH THE COACHELLA VALLEY LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MODERATE DIURNAL
ONSHORE PUSHES EACH DAY. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS BY...OTHERWISE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACTUAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...271000Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
28/0000Z. LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES AROUND 500 FT MSL COULD
RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFT 28/1200Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LAYER WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

300 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

300 AM...A SOUTH SWELL IS GETTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JT



000
FXUS66 KSTO 271032
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
332 AM PDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure continues to dominate over California early this
morning. Satellite imagery shows that the upper level ridge axis
has shifted east into the Great Basin as a trough approaches the
West Coast.

For today, skies will remain mostly clear across the forecast
area, though we should begin to see increasing clouds from the
northwest in the afternoon and evening. With the approaching
front, we may begin to see a modest Delta Breeze develop in the
mid to late afternoon timeframe, but this shouldn`t significantly
impact today`s highs. Highs are still expected to reach the lower
to mid 80s across the Valley today, with 60s and 70s over the
mountains. Several daily high temperatures records will likely be
broken. Today`s records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83 at
Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac.

We`ll see a bit more cooling on Saturday as the trough slowly
moves through the region. A few showers will be possible Friday
night into early Sat along the Shasta County mountains, and
Saturday and Sunday afternoons along the Sierra south of Tahoe.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the rest of the
weekend into early next week.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Dry weather with daytime highs ranging 5-10 degrees above normal
expected for the extended forecast. A weak trough will move into the
Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning and brush far NorCal which
will lower daytime highs compared to Monday`s highs. Only a slight
variation to temperatures Wednesday into Friday. Valley highs will
generally be mid 70s to near 80. For higher terrain, expect mid
50s near the Sierra Crest to the low 70s in the foothills. JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will continue today. Surface winds in the Central
Valley will generally be less than 10 kts for much of today. However,
a weak delta breeze is expected to develop late afternoon which
may slightly enhance winds in the delta region into Stockton and
the Sac Metro region between 00-04z. JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 271019 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 271019 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 271019 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 271019 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...27/300 AM

LOCAL SCA CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCA
CONDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL LINGER WITH LITTLE
INTERRUPTION ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TROUGH TUE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS IS NOW WELL ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WITH
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BRING REPORTED. AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
ALLOWING THE CEILINGS TO LIFT. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY. WITH THE
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
INCREASING LIFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER A FEW
HOUR PERIOD PRIMARILY FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 9 PM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN HUMBOLDT BAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES/MOVES INLAND. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING TOO STRONG THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK
APART...THUS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING EACH DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IMPACTING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A 6 HOUR OR
SO WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE SITUATED IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND IN GENERAL MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 15 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271011
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
311 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS
SLIGHTLY FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND NARROWING DOWN TIMING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE ALPINE/MONO COUNTY CREST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE ABSURDLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE, WITH SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY
TO FALL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR TONIGHT, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. WITH 700 MB WINDS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STAY A BIT MIXED UP
WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BRIEFLY LINES UP WITH WEAK FORCING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON TROUGH.

SATURDAY, A MILD PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. I HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE. HOWEVER,
ONLY THE GFS SHOWS ANY HINT OF PRECIPITATION SO IT MAY WIND UP JUST
BEING SCATTERED CUMULUS.

ON SUNDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A BETTER SHOT AT A
FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF MONO COUNTY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOKS REMOTE AT
THIS TIME. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING OVER THE THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TREND TOWARD
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO INCREASE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR MONDAY SLIDES EAST AS A WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LOWER HIGH TEMPS 8-10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THESE TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

MODELS HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON THE FRINGE OF THIS COLDER AIR. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
A BIT MORE DYNAMIC WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED NORTH AND WEST OF A BIEBER TO GERLACH
TO LOVELOCK TO AUSTIN LINE FOR THURSDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAVORED FOG PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE SHALLOW
FOG WILL CREATE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

SFC AND RIDGE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. RIDGE GUSTS COULD REACH 50 KTS BY EARLY
EVENING WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY OVER AND EAST OF THE SIERRA AND HIGHER
RANGES IN FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...NORTH OF SUSANVILLE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR LESS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON SUNDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/2338Z

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH THE COOLING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
A DULL 7 DAYS OF WEATHER ON TAP. 584 DM UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER SRN
CA WITH WEAK 1 TO 2 MB OFFSHORE FLOW FROM BOTH EAST AND NORTH. A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SWOOPED DOWN THE COAST AND BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS
TO THE CENTRAL COAST ALONG WITH A LITTLE DENSE FOG. SOME CLOUDS ARE
SWEEPING INTO THE SBA CHANNEL BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BIG DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST DUE TO THE NOW PRESENT MARINE LAYER.
SOME COOLING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS DUE TO EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ALLOWED BY THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. HGTS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM YDY SO INLAND TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA COASTS SHOULD HAVE SOME
CLOUDS. THE MARINE LAYER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND LOWER HGTS WILL ALL
CONSPIRE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES.

A LITTLE TROF ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA. ALL HI REZ MDLS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LA COAST WITH SOME OFFSHORE TRENDS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL COAST CLEAR. IT COULD HAPPEN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WAS SOME STRATUS AROUND NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. MAX TEMPS WILL
COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AND YET MAX TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
FLAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT WILL BE
DRY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN IT.
SO SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY AROUND THE
LA COAST DUE TO A WEAK EDDY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
FROM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/2338Z

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271003
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 271003
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 271003
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
NEAR THE COAST...AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY. CURRENTLY THE VISIBILITIES AT KMRY...KSNS AND KWVI ARE
WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE...AS WELL AS HALF MOON BAY. A
VERY SHALLOW FOG LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING UP BEHIND THE BUILDINGS IN
SAN FRANCISCO ON WEBCAMS. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST TOO LONG THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
00Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE TO 3.5 MB BY 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONG ENOUGH SEA BREEZE TO BRING COOLER AIR INLAND. AS A
RESULT...TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 5-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S MOST
AREAS...AND UP TO THE MID 80S FAR INLAND AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY FOR
SLIGHT WARMING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 270922
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RECORD SETTING HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE (HIGH PRESSURE AREA)
IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MANY 90+ READINGS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORDS FALLING. THE HIGH IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A ROBUST MARINE INTRUSION AS GRADIENTS BECOME
STRONGLY ONSHORE IN BOTH THE CENTRAL COAST AND KERN COUNTY DESERT
AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE USUAL PASSES
AND ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

IN THE SIERRA, COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASE
INSTABLILTY. ON BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS SOME VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT HOWEVER
GIVEN THE THE VERY WARM PATTERN AND LACK OF SNOW, THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE USE THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS PROJECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891

KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 270902
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SUGGESTING H5
HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY COMING CLOSE TO OR
ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST  CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19Z FRI.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 270902
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A PERVASIVE DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SRN NEVADA PER WV IMAGERY. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA MEASURED H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY WELL WITHIN THE GRIPS OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAINS EXCELLENT WITH ALL MODEL SUITES SUGGESTING H5
HEIGHTS FREQUENTLY TOUCHING 585DM BEFORE DAMPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION NEAR 27N 140W. BOTTOM LINE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES) LIKELY COMING CLOSE TO OR
ECLIPSING RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK PREVIOUSLY OFFERED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ALREADY
ACCEPTED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. A WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC THROUGH NRN SONORA MONDAY
SPREADING MOISTURE ABOVE THE H7 LAYER INLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED LESS INTENSE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF
INCORPORATES BETTER CYCLONIC DEFINITION. REGARDLESS...WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS BARELY REACHING 4 G/KG...LIMITED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOTABLE CINH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CWA...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA BOUNDS ARE MINIMAL. HIGHEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND
CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO FAR SERN ARIZONA...BLOSSOMING MORE SO THROUGH SRN NEW
MEXICO AND SWRN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO
REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL STATE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING THROUGH UTAH/COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PERIODICALLY
CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
LIMITED...THOUGH DIRECT IMPACTS AND THOSE ON TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE
ORDER OF 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY
(IF NOT TOTALITY) OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST  CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19Z FRI.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$












000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 270537 CCA
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 mbs late Fri with the
Breeze developing during or just after max heating. Build up of
stratus along the coast a good indicator of potential cooling at
least in the Carquinez area as the day wears on. With some low
record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
maxes would be higher if it were not for the stratus build up along
the coast. The Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain
records would fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$











000
FXUS66 KSTO 270532
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1030 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 degrees late Fri with
the Breeze developing during or just after max heating. With some
low record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain the records would
fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 270532
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1030 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 degrees late Fri with
the Breeze developing during or just after max heating. With some
low record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain the records would
fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 270532
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1030 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 degrees late Fri with
the Breeze developing during or just after max heating. With some
low record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain the records would
fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 270532
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1030 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The max temp of 84 at KRDD today tied the city record...and fell one
short of the RDD Airport record. Elsewhere...maxes generally fell a
couple of degrees short of records.

The approaching upper trof now moving inside 140W should weaken
rapidly as it approaches our CWA and encounters the downstream
ridge. Some instability noted in the instability progs during the
next couple of afternoons...mostly in the Valley on Fri and Siernev
on Sat...but available moisture is problematic. TPW plume of .80 to
.90 tenths associated with the incoming trof will likely erode as it
moves Ewd into lower PW air along the coast. Would favor chance PoPs
in the Nrn mtns Fri nite into Sat morning over the Nrn Mtns...and a
chance of showers over the Siernev on SAT...with an outside chance
of a brief storm due to upslope flow and topographic forcing.

The approaching trof is forecast to be progressive and shift the
ridge inland on Fri. Synoptic cooling of some 4 degrees or so is
expected over the Nrn zones...with near persistence/slight warming
elsewhere....depending on the timing of the Delta Breeze. Onshore
gradients are expected to increase to 3 to 4 degrees late Fri with
the Breeze developing during or just after max heating. With some
low record maxes on Fri at some locations...several daily high
temperatures records will likely be broken as records are lower than
today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82 at Stockton, 83
at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and downtown Sac. The
Nrn sites may come close...but looks quite certain the records would
fall at SAC/SCK...and possibly MOD.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions to continue until after 00z SAT when BKN070-080
conditions spread over Nrn Sac Vly. winds less than 10 kts for TAF
becoming onshore/up valley 5-15 kts after 20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSGX 270446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
WITH SOME WARMING...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARDS
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASE DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT 9 PM...LINDBERGH FIELD WAS STILL 73. THE
UPPER HIGH WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...SO WITH
THAT COMBINED WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...HIGHS WERE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S...INCLUDING 96 AT FULLERTON AND YORBA LINDA.
ONLY ONE RECORD HIGH WAS SET...89 AT CHULA VISTA...BUT LINDBERGH
FIELD DID SET A NEW RECORD FOR MOST 80+ DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH...6.
THEY COULD GO TO 7 DAYS FRIDAY...GIVEN OUR CURRENT PREDICTED HIGH OF
80 THERE.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER
SONORA/ARIZONA WHILE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES HERE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH HAVING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS SHOULD COOL THE COAST...THOUGH 850 MB
TEMPS OF AROUND 19 DEG C WILL RESULT IN INLAND EMPIRE LOCATIONS
BEING THE SAME TEMPERATURE FRIDAY AS TODAY. THE LOWER DESERTS COULD
BE EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER FRIDAY. WITH HIGHER COASTAL HUMIDITIES DUE
TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER INVERSION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE COULD BE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...FORMING ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF DENSE
FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AFTER THEY HAD A
VERY WARM PATTERN LIKE OURS...SO THAT RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT WE
COULD HAVE SOME DENSE FOG HERE AS WELL. WITH THE DEVELOPING MARINE
LAYER AND THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD HAVE COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DESERTS WILL STILL BE HOT...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY. DESPITE THE COOLING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
TO OUR SOUTH. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND
MONDAY TO BRING BRIEF WARMING AND LESS MARINE STRATUS...AND
ALSO POSSIBLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD BRING BACK THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ANOTHER COOLING
TREND. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL...PARTLY
DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S...BUT WITH SOME READINGS EVEN IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...270300Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH 280000Z. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WITH THESE DRY WARM CONIDTIONS. AFTER
280000Z COASTAL AIRPORTS MAY HAVE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATE NIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...281200Z.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. OF
INTEREST...SOUTH SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS ALSO MIXED WITH SOME
NORTHWEST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 PM...A SOUTH SWELL IS GETTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LONG
PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS. THIS WILL CREAT STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KMTR 270444
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM A SOUTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270444
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM A SOUTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270444
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM A SOUTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270444
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL IMPACT MRY AND SNS. WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP FOG AND LOW CIGS OUT OF THE
SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR FOR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z.
DRAINAGE WIND FROM THE SNS VALLEY EXPECTED TO PUSH FOG OUT AFTER
12Z.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM A SOUTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 270416
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
916 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTS AND VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MORE COOLING ON SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE CENTER OVER SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...BUT
OFFSHORE FLOW STILL REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. BETTER
COOLING WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE COOL THE CENTRAL COAST
MORE.

FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATE STRATUS CLOUD PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE ADDED LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONGER ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL
ZONES. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
EVEN THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN
TODAY`S...NOT EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST
CHANCES ACCORDING TO WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG
BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF 88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND
PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 PM.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DENSE FOG
MAY IMPACT INLETS AND HARBORS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DEVELOPING WAS PLACED
WITH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER ZONE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH
OF POINT SAL AND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KMTR 270358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 270358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 270358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RETURN OF COASTAL FOG AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE WARMING
OCCURRED UNDER A WEST COAST RIDGE TODAY. THE 00Z OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS BELOW 900 MB WARMED BY AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES
C SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY.
TODAY`S SEABREEZE WAS WEAK AND DEVELOPED LATE. THESE DEVELOPMENTS
RESULTED IN SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE WITH A HIGH OF 85 AND SALINAS
AIRPORT AT 90. THE SALINAS AIRPORT CAME WITHIN TWO DEGREES OF
MATCHING ITS RECORD HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH WAS
SET JUST A DOZEN DAYS AGO ON MARCH 14.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG QUICKLY FILLED IN ALONG MOST OF OUR
COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS COMPLETED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG TO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC
NW AND FAR NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS NEAR
THE COAST TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY PRESSING INLAND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONSEQUENTLY...WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

TOMORROW`S COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z
NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
WELL AS SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST TO OUR
NORTH NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST
SEABREEZE WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262339 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
438 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2338Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KEKA 262237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT JUST OUTSIDE 135W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE NORCAL COAST. IT IS RUNNING INTO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW CAL BY
FRI EVENING...SO IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MISTY RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A TENTH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE SHEARING
APART AND SPLITTING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS N-NW
FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. STRONGER NORTH
FLOW ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER CHANCES OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ALSO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT WITH EACH RUN.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT-WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE
THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS CLEARED OUT ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEB CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE ARE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SO
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
FALL TO IFR AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A WESTERLY
MID PERIOD WAVE AND A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS. WINDS WILL EASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 FT AS A
WESTERLY WAVE SYSTEM PROPAGATES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 262237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT JUST OUTSIDE 135W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE NORCAL COAST. IT IS RUNNING INTO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW CAL BY
FRI EVENING...SO IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MISTY RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A TENTH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE SHEARING
APART AND SPLITTING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS N-NW
FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. STRONGER NORTH
FLOW ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER CHANCES OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ALSO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT WITH EACH RUN.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT-WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE
THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS CLEARED OUT ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEB CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE ARE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SO
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
FALL TO IFR AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A WESTERLY
MID PERIOD WAVE AND A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS. WINDS WILL EASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 FT AS A
WESTERLY WAVE SYSTEM PROPAGATES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 262144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 262144
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:45 PM PDT THURSDAY... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM... DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO IS RUNNING 77F
WHICH IS 11F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT 2PM. SALINAS IS 88F WHICH IS
14 DEGREES ABOVE 2PM YESTERDAY. MESONET STATIONS NEAR CUPERTINO
SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 86F AS OF 2PM... WHICH IS THE WARMEST
POCKET WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
WARMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS TO 15-16CAT 850MB. TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB HAVE RISEN 4-6C OVER THE LAST 14 HOURS AND ARE CORRESPONDING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 25F
DEGREES WARMER AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. AS OF 2PM... RECORD TEMPERATURES
ARE IMMINENT AT SAN JOSE...SALINAS...NAPA...AND GILROY. OAKLAND
MUSEUM IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING AFTER THE NEXT HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN. REGIONS IN THE NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST
COOLING INTO FRIDAY WHEREAS SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL REMAIN THE
WARMEST.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...
AND THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN INTO
THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:09 PM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 262130
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will continue to dominate weather through late Friday
as ridge axis begins to shift eastward. Skies will be mostly
clear tonight and Friday with dry weather. Temperatures on Friday
will be similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. Several
daily high temperatures records will likely be broken as records
are lower than today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82
at Stockton, 83 at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and
downtown Sac.

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions to continue over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and variable winds less than 10 kts for TAF sites.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 262130
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will continue to dominate weather through late Friday
as ridge axis begins to shift eastward. Skies will be mostly
clear tonight and Friday with dry weather. Temperatures on Friday
will be similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. Several
daily high temperatures records will likely be broken as records
are lower than today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82
at Stockton, 83 at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and
downtown Sac.

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.

CEO

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions to continue over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and variable winds less than 10 kts for TAF sites.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 262124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS... IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 90S...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ON THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AOA 528DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THREATEN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMALS...DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST SOLN...TAKING A
STRONGER/MORE CLOSED LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BRIEFLY PUSHING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THE FACT THAT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.60 INCH...WITH ALMOST ALL MOISTURE REMAINING AOA
600MB. THE EURO AND GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
DRIER...WITH BOTH ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT SINGLE-DIGIT POP
AND NEAR-90 HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR CWA IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS MAINLY
IN A 575-579DM RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SHIES...AND HIGHS
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...SOUTHEAST  CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19Z FRI.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS66 KLOX 262105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
206 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 262105
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
206 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS IS
JUST ABOUT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHAVING FAIRLY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD SHARE OF 90 PLUS READINGS SO FAR. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS ALREADY COOLED TEMPS DOWN IN SOME COASTAL SPOTS. WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE AS OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
STRONG AND WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...JUST SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30S IN THE USUAL FAVORED SPOTS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS. SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THAT SHOULDN`T
LAST MUCH LONGER.

LAX-DAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND A VERY SMALL DECREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WILL COOL COASTAL AND NEARBY VALLEY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING ALONG CENTRAL COASTAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH TOMORROW`S RECORDS ARE MORE REACHABLE THAN TODAY`S...NOT
EXPECTING MANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. THE BEST CHANCES ACCORDING TO
WHAT`S FORECAST FOR NOW APPEAR TO BE IN LONG BEACH (FORECAST HIGH OF
88...RECORD IS 86)...OJAI (91 AND 89) AND PASO ROBLES (87 AND 83).

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER AZ WHILE SOCAL
WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY AND WEAK
TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON SATURDAY EVEN FURTHER...BUT STILL WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT STRATUS RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND ALSO AROUND
LONG BEACH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. RIDGING RETURNS ON MONDAY FOR
A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HIGH TEMPS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF COASTAL
STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING MAINLY LONG BEACH AND POSSIBLY
UP AROUND LAX.

.LONG TERM (TUE-THU)...
NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OR TROUGHING OR WARMING OR COOLING FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
JUST MINOR RIPPLES PASSING THROUGH. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SOME NW WINDS CENTRAL COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK SUNDOWNER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE THAT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS IN THIS PATTERN AS
WELL...MAINLY COASTAL L.A. COUNTY.

WITH THE MONTH OF MARCH COMING TO AN END ON TUESDAY AND NO RAIN
FORECAST...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WILL END UP OVER AN INCH AND A HALF
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH PRECIPITATION. THE MARCH NORMAL IS 2.53
INCHES AND ONLY .87 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS MONTH. NOT EXACTLY
THE MIRACLE MARCH WE NEEDED TO ADDRESS OUR RAINFALL SHORTAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WERE UP AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER 20Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY TODAY IN THE MID
80S...AND FLIRT WITH RECORD VALUES AT BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WARMING 0.5-1.0 C
FRIDAY FROM TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 2-4 DEGREES.
THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE MODELS HAVE A MINOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A COOLING /RELATIVELY
SPEAKING/ TREND TO THE REGION WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL BE 8-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY.

THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IS LOW...AND JUST MARGINALLY
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY
BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY THAN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF THEN
FOLLOWS THE RIDGE WITH A STRONG TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 262038
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS... IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 90S...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ON THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AOA 528DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THREATEN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMALS...DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST SOLN...TAKING A
STRONGER/MORE CLOSED LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BRIEFLY PUSHING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THE FACT THAT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.60 INCH...WITH ALMOST ALL MOISTURE REMAINING AOA
600MB. THE EURO AND GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
DRIER...WITH BOTH ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT SINGLE-DIGIT POP
AND NEAR-90 HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR CWA IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS MAINLY
IN A 575-579DM RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SHIES...AND HIGHS
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 262038
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS... IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 90S...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ON THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AOA 528DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THREATEN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMALS...DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST SOLN...TAKING A
STRONGER/MORE CLOSED LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BRIEFLY PUSHING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THE FACT THAT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.60 INCH...WITH ALMOST ALL MOISTURE REMAINING AOA
600MB. THE EURO AND GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
DRIER...WITH BOTH ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT SINGLE-DIGIT POP
AND NEAR-90 HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR CWA IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS MAINLY
IN A 575-579DM RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SHIES...AND HIGHS
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 262038
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS... IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 90S...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE
REGION...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ON THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...EURO...AND GEM ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING AOA 528DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD ALLOW LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY...WHICH WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THREATEN
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...ON THE OTHER HAND...ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMALS...DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE WETTEST AND COOLEST SOLN...TAKING A
STRONGER/MORE CLOSED LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND BRIEFLY PUSHING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THE FACT THAT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 0.60 INCH...WITH ALMOST ALL MOISTURE REMAINING AOA
600MB. THE EURO AND GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
DRIER...WITH BOTH ONLY SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUR CURRENT SINGLE-DIGIT POP
AND NEAR-90 HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR CWA IN A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS MAINLY
IN A 575-579DM RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SHIES...AND HIGHS
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS66 KSGX 262030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY FRIDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MINOR COOLING NEAR THE
COAST BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT INLAND. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TODAY WAS ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE SANTA ANA WINDS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THE TEMPERATURES
ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE DRY AIRMASS. 1 PM TEMPERATURES HAD
REACHED 90 OR HIGHER AT RANCHO BERNARDO...ESCONDIDO...POWAY...LAKE
FOREST AND FULLERTON. SANTA ANA WINDS GUSTED TO 30-40 MPH THIS
MORNING IN THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS BUT HAD SINCE WEAKENED. THE SEA
BREEZE KICKED IN AROUND 11 AM WHICH SLOWED THE WARMING AT THE COAST.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL DOMINANT OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT 500 MB HTS AND THKNS SHOW ONLY MINOR
DECREASES. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
THE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO
WEAKER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND AN
EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT FARTHER
INLAND IT WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM AS TODAY. MTNS AND DESERTS WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WEST
OF THE MTNS...BUT MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PALM SPRINGS IS LIKELY TO REACH 100 DEGREES
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH OF 97
SET IN 1969.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH TREKKING ACROSS SO-CAL
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-STARVED TO BRING
PRECIP...BUT IT WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
WEATHER MONDAY. PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW/WEAK TROUGHING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.

CLIMATE NOTE: THE RECORD HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 64.3 SET IN 1978. THIS YEAR THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH MARCH 25TH IS 66.1. THIS WILL BE YET
ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD THAT WILL BE BROKEN.

&&

.AVIATION... 262000Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A RETURN OF
MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO THE COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS NOT TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THEREFORE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR LOW CIG/VIS FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

100 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG



000
FXUS66 KSGX 262030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY FRIDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MINOR COOLING NEAR THE
COAST BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT INLAND. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TODAY WAS ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE SANTA ANA WINDS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THE TEMPERATURES
ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE DRY AIRMASS. 1 PM TEMPERATURES HAD
REACHED 90 OR HIGHER AT RANCHO BERNARDO...ESCONDIDO...POWAY...LAKE
FOREST AND FULLERTON. SANTA ANA WINDS GUSTED TO 30-40 MPH THIS
MORNING IN THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS BUT HAD SINCE WEAKENED. THE SEA
BREEZE KICKED IN AROUND 11 AM WHICH SLOWED THE WARMING AT THE COAST.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL DOMINANT OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT 500 MB HTS AND THKNS SHOW ONLY MINOR
DECREASES. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
THE LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO
WEAKER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND AN
EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT FARTHER
INLAND IT WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM AS TODAY. MTNS AND DESERTS WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WEST
OF THE MTNS...BUT MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. PALM SPRINGS IS LIKELY TO REACH 100 DEGREES
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH OF 97
SET IN 1969.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH TREKKING ACROSS SO-CAL
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOO MOISTURE-STARVED TO BRING
PRECIP...BUT IT WILL BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
WEATHER MONDAY. PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW/WEAK TROUGHING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.

CLIMATE NOTE: THE RECORD HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH AT LINDBERGH FIELD IS 64.3 SET IN 1978. THIS YEAR THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THROUGH MARCH 25TH IS 66.1. THIS WILL BE YET
ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD THAT WILL BE BROKEN.

&&

.AVIATION... 262000Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A RETURN OF
MARINE LAYER STRATUS TO THE COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS NOT TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. THEREFORE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR LOW CIG/VIS FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

100 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD OF 17-20 SECONDS WILL
ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG




000
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE SET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD MIXING AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NV. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH RIDGE WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AND EXCEED THEM IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
GENERAL SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA, AND LATER IN THE SEASON THIS
WOULD USUALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO INDICATION OF
CONVECTION. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF THIS ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP WITH EACH SHORTWAVE THAT BRUSHES THE REGION, THEY ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FIRST DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE -6 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST. RIDGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY.

A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS MAINLY TO RIDGES EARLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEISHAHN

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

CITY              FORECAST HIGH   RECORD    DATE
RENO                    80          75      1966,1986
CARSON CITY             78          76      1986
FALLON                  82          78      1986
LOVELOCK                83          77      1966
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE        69          70      1988
TRUCKEE                 69          70      1988
SUSANVILLE              76          74      1988
BRIDGEPORT              74          68      1986
MAMMOTH LAKES           65          57      1997

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE SET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD MIXING AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NV. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH RIDGE WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AND EXCEED THEM IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
GENERAL SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA, AND LATER IN THE SEASON THIS
WOULD USUALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO INDICATION OF
CONVECTION. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF THIS ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP WITH EACH SHORTWAVE THAT BRUSHES THE REGION, THEY ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FIRST DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE -6 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST. RIDGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY.

A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS MAINLY TO RIDGES EARLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEISHAHN

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

CITY              FORECAST HIGH   RECORD    DATE
RENO                    80          75      1966,1986
CARSON CITY             78          76      1986
FALLON                  82          78      1986
LOVELOCK                83          77      1966
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE        69          70      1988
TRUCKEE                 69          70      1988
SUSANVILLE              76          74      1988
BRIDGEPORT              74          68      1986
MAMMOTH LAKES           65          57      1997

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE SET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD MIXING AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NV. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH RIDGE WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AND EXCEED THEM IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
GENERAL SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA, AND LATER IN THE SEASON THIS
WOULD USUALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO INDICATION OF
CONVECTION. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF THIS ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP WITH EACH SHORTWAVE THAT BRUSHES THE REGION, THEY ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FIRST DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE -6 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST. RIDGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY.

A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS MAINLY TO RIDGES EARLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEISHAHN

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

CITY              FORECAST HIGH   RECORD    DATE
RENO                    80          75      1966,1986
CARSON CITY             78          76      1986
FALLON                  82          78      1986
LOVELOCK                83          77      1966
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE        69          70      1988
TRUCKEE                 69          70      1988
SUSANVILLE              76          74      1988
BRIDGEPORT              74          68      1986
MAMMOTH LAKES           65          57      1997

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE SET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD MIXING AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NV. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH RIDGE WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AND EXCEED THEM IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
GENERAL SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA, AND LATER IN THE SEASON THIS
WOULD USUALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO INDICATION OF
CONVECTION. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF THIS ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP WITH EACH SHORTWAVE THAT BRUSHES THE REGION, THEY ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FIRST DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE -6 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST. RIDGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY.

A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS MAINLY TO RIDGES EARLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEISHAHN

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

CITY              FORECAST HIGH   RECORD    DATE
RENO                    80          75      1966,1986
CARSON CITY             78          76      1986
FALLON                  82          78      1986
LOVELOCK                83          77      1966
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE        69          70      1988
TRUCKEE                 69          70      1988
SUSANVILLE              76          74      1988
BRIDGEPORT              74          68      1986
MAMMOTH LAKES           65          57      1997

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 261804
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z.

AT 1711Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX IS 1100 FEET WITH A VERY
WEAK INVERSION UP TO 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF DEPICTING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH EXPOSURE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS
OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KMTR 261729
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1029 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261729
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1029 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TYPICAL WESTERLY SEA BREEZE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 261643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL
BRING MINOR COOLING NEAR THE COAST BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT INLAND. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

9 AM COASTAL AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA COUPLED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
SANTA ANA WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S AND 90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING AT THE COAST FROM AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. BUT
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW MILES INLAND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 93 AT LINDBERGH FIELD TODAY IS PROBABLY JUST OUT
OF REACH...BUT THE RECORD HIGH OF 82 FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FORMS. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. PALM SPRINGS
IS LIKELY TO REACH 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH
WOULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH OF 97 SET IN 1969.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. BUT EVEN WITH THIS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST FOLLOWED BY WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
RENEWED WARMING TO START THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND MINOR COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION... 261500Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF
WEAK UDDFS AND LLWS IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG



000
FXUS66 KSGX 261643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL
BRING MINOR COOLING NEAR THE COAST BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT INLAND. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND AND MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

9 AM COASTAL AND VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA COUPLED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
SANTA ANA WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S AND 90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING AT THE COAST FROM AN EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. BUT
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW MILES INLAND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 93 AT LINDBERGH FIELD TODAY IS PROBABLY JUST OUT
OF REACH...BUT THE RECORD HIGH OF 82 FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FORMS. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. PALM SPRINGS
IS LIKELY TO REACH 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WHICH
WOULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH OF 97 SET IN 1969.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. BUT EVEN WITH THIS COOLING THE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST FOLLOWED BY WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
RENEWED WARMING TO START THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND MINOR COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION... 261500Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF
WEAK UDDFS AND LLWS IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG




000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261640
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER RIDGE
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SUN)...
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S COASTAL VALLEYS UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FAIRLY TAME GIVEN THESE
GRADIENTS AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN WILEY RIDGE WHICH
BLOWS PRETTY EASILY IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ONLY GUSTING TO JUST
BELOW 30 MPH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE
LEVELS THINGS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
EVEN WEAKER OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO BRING A STRONGER SEA BREEZE...THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TOMORROW ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY HOWEVER
WILL ACTUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AV
COOLING BUT WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THOSE TEMPS UP CLOSER
TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS
TOMORROW DESPITE THE COOLING NEAR THE COAST SIMPLY BECAUSE TODAY HAS
SUCH HIGH RECORDS. FOR EXAMPLE FOR TOMORROW THE RECORD HIGH FOR
DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 91 COMPARED TO TODAY`S RECORD OF 98. NOT
EXPECTING TO SHATTER A TON OF RECORDS TOMORROW BY ANY MEANS BUT
STILL BETTER CHANCES THAN TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF SUNDAY`S DRY TROUGH PASSAGE
THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE COOLING EXPECTED EACH DAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 261625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 261625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:30 AM PDT THURSDAY... A DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LEAD
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 14-15C THIS
AFTERNOON... WHICH IS A 4-5C INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY AND 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL WHICH
TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES. MODEL DATA ALSO SUGGESTS RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES OUT
OF REACH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE RECORDS MATCHED OR BROKEN
WILL BE THE SOUTH BAY AS IT IS IN THE SWEET SPOT OF LOWER RECORD
VALUES AND UNDER THE STRONGEST WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE WARMING FROM
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NORTH BAY WILL SEE THE MOST COOLING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK... BUT I MAY MODIFY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AFTER FURTHER REVIEW THIS MORNING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA... AND
THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS RETURN
INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK... LEADING TO MODERATELY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:52 AM PDT THURSDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 261600
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET...AND MILD MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW REMAINING UP
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL CONUS FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF
3-8DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM
AND A HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL
CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261600
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET...AND MILD MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW REMAINING UP
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL CONUS FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF
3-8DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM
AND A HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL
CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 261600
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET...AND MILD MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW REMAINING UP
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL CONUS FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF
3-8DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM
AND A HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL
CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



000
FXUS65 KPSR 261600
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET...AND MILD MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. STRONG RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS KEEPING
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOW REMAINING UP
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS...INHERITED FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL CONUS FLOW PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE.
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF
3-8DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM
AND A HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL
CIRRUS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS66 KSTO 261509
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
809 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will remain in control today with ridge axis
overhead. This will allow for dry weather, mostly sunny skies and
warming temperatures. Highs will be 5-8 degrees warmer than
Wednesday and will top out in the low to mid 80s in the Valley
with 70s in the mountains. Little to no change made to going
forecast for today.

CEO

.Previous Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees above normal. A
weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning
and brush far NorCal which will lower daytime highs by about 5
degrees but they will still be 10 degrees above normal. Only a
slight variation to temperatures Wednesday into Thursday as dry
weather continues with somewhat zonal flow aloft.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 261509
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
809 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will remain in control today with ridge axis
overhead. This will allow for dry weather, mostly sunny skies and
warming temperatures. Highs will be 5-8 degrees warmer than
Wednesday and will top out in the low to mid 80s in the Valley
with 70s in the mountains. Little to no change made to going
forecast for today.

CEO

.Previous Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees above normal. A
weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning
and brush far NorCal which will lower daytime highs by about 5
degrees but they will still be 10 degrees above normal. Only a
slight variation to temperatures Wednesday into Thursday as dry
weather continues with somewhat zonal flow aloft.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 261509
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
809 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will remain in control today with ridge axis
overhead. This will allow for dry weather, mostly sunny skies and
warming temperatures. Highs will be 5-8 degrees warmer than
Wednesday and will top out in the low to mid 80s in the Valley
with 70s in the mountains. Little to no change made to going
forecast for today.

CEO

.Previous Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees above normal. A
weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning
and brush far NorCal which will lower daytime highs by about 5
degrees but they will still be 10 degrees above normal. Only a
slight variation to temperatures Wednesday into Thursday as dry
weather continues with somewhat zonal flow aloft.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 261509
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
809 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure will remain in control today with ridge axis
overhead. This will allow for dry weather, mostly sunny skies and
warming temperatures. Highs will be 5-8 degrees warmer than
Wednesday and will top out in the low to mid 80s in the Valley
with 70s in the mountains. Little to no change made to going
forecast for today.

CEO

.Previous Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees above normal. A
weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by early Tuesday morning
and brush far NorCal which will lower daytime highs by about 5
degrees but they will still be 10 degrees above normal. Only a
slight variation to temperatures Wednesday into Thursday as dry
weather continues with somewhat zonal flow aloft.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 261212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
512 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
512 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
512 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
512 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261212
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
512 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTINESS
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KPHX THROUGH 15-16Z WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE...SWITCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT TIMES AND VICE VERSA...BUT OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE
WEST WILL BE DELAYED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
AND WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME SORT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST
DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DIP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN




000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 261134
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1130Z.

AT 1130Z THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS VTU AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT AND CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
TODAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SURF AND CURRENTS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD SOUTH
EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 261130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 261130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
430 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST IS SUPRESSING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. NEAR THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO PREVENTING ANY OCEAN STRATUS FROM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE...THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...

25/900 PM

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 261122
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 583 RIDGE DIRECTLY ATOP OF SRN CA
COMBINES WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MOST OF
THE COASTS AND VLYS. PROBABLY NOT A RECORD BREAKING DAY AS ALL THE
MAX TEMPS SET BACK IN 1988 ARE IN THE UPPER 90S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
THIS MORNING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH 3 TO 4 MB OF OFFSHORE
FLOW BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE EAST. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT TO
SPEAK OF AND THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NO CHANGE IN THE HGTS FRIDAY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES SO THERE
WILL BE LESS CANYON WINDS IN THE MORNING AND ALSO THERE WILL BE A
BETTER SEA BREEZE AND LESS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH DIMINISHING COOLING FURTHER
INLAND. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COASTAL
ZONES WHERE IT COULD BE WARM IF THE SEABREEZE IS LATE OR COOL IF THE
SEA BREEZE ARRIVES EARLY. RECORDS ARE MUCH LOWER SO DESPITE A LITTLE
COOLING A FEW RECORDS (LONG BEACH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE)

OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FIRST FLATTENS OUT SATURDAY AND THEN A
WEAK TROF RIPPLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT SKIES WILL
TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE TROF ON SUNDAY. THE TROF COULD GIN UP A
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SUNDAY BUT WITH THE VERY WARM OCEAN TEMPS
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRATUS. COOLER
SATURDAY AND THEN COOLER STILL SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
A RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
ALOFT TO SET UP A MARINE INVERSION. SOME STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY
OVER THE L.A. COAST. DESPITE THE STRATUS THE HIGHER HGTS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP.

THEN ITS TWO FAIRLY DULL DAYS IN A ROW AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK DURING
THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CORRECT DOWNTOWN LA`S MAX TEMP WILL HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL EVERYDAY THIS MONTH SAVE FOR THE FIRST THREE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...

25/900 PM

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KHNX 261102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. FORECAST IS FOR FRESNO
TO TIE THE RECORD HIGH OF 87 AND BAKERSFIELD TO BREAK THE RECORD
BY 1 DEGREE WITH A HIGH OF 88. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY PUTTING US ON THE WARMER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SJV AND MORE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED
OR BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND...LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 10000 FEET.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TO A DRY PATTERN PREVAILING NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PACNW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING MORE
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEXT TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 261102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. FORECAST IS FOR FRESNO
TO TIE THE RECORD HIGH OF 87 AND BAKERSFIELD TO BREAK THE RECORD
BY 1 DEGREE WITH A HIGH OF 88. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY PUTTING US ON THE WARMER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SJV AND MORE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED
OR BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND...LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 10000 FEET.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TO A DRY PATTERN PREVAILING NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PACNW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING MORE
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEXT TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 261102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. FORECAST IS FOR FRESNO
TO TIE THE RECORD HIGH OF 87 AND BAKERSFIELD TO BREAK THE RECORD
BY 1 DEGREE WITH A HIGH OF 88. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY PUTTING US ON THE WARMER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SJV AND MORE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED
OR BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND...LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 10000 FEET.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TO A DRY PATTERN PREVAILING NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PACNW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING MORE
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEXT TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 261102
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
402 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. FORECAST IS FOR FRESNO
TO TIE THE RECORD HIGH OF 87 AND BAKERSFIELD TO BREAK THE RECORD
BY 1 DEGREE WITH A HIGH OF 88. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY PUTTING US ON THE WARMER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE SJV AND MORE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED
OR BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BRING A SUBTLE COOLING TREND...LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WHILE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...SATURDAY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANYTHING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 10000 FEET.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TO A DRY PATTERN PREVAILING NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PACNW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING MORE
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEXT TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP A BIT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972

KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 261059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW IN POSITION OVER THE WEST
COAST. IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ONCE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN CLEARER SKIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY COAST AND FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION...INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FOG BUT ALSO ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS
AND BECOME POSSIBLY EVEN MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST. THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN COASTAL
AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO PRIMARILY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE INTERIOR
MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT MODEL SYSTEM STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR ANY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. /RPA



&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LIFR AND IFR TODAY
WITH TEMPO CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS MARGINAL. INLAND...EXPECT REDUCED CONDITIONS IN
SOME OF THE VALLEYS DUE TO STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REPORTING A
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 6-8 FT. THE 538Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AND 10-25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS WAS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED BY THE NOAA BUOYS WIND SENSORS AND THE
CAPE MENDOCINO CDIP BUOY NOT SHOWING MUCH NORTHERLY WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES (INDICATING WINDS HAVE WEAKENED). AS A RESULT, DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR ZONE 475 THIS MORNING AND INSTEAD KEPT
THE OCCASIONAL GUST WORDING IN THE CWF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SHORT-PERIOD SEAS, MAINLY TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
WESTERLY SWELL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
EASE SOME ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO
TREND UPWARD AGAIN. HOW STRONG IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BUT SOME HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED, AT LEAST FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST,
CONTINUING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT- PERIOD SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 261056
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
356 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees
above normal. A weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by
early Tuesday morning and brush far NorCal which will lower
daytime highs by about 5 degrees but they will still be 10
degrees above normal. Only a slight variation to temperatures
Wednesday into Thursday as dry weather continues with somewhat
zonal flow aloft. JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 261056
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
356 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees
above normal. A weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by
early Tuesday morning and brush far NorCal which will lower
daytime highs by about 5 degrees but they will still be 10
degrees above normal. Only a slight variation to temperatures
Wednesday into Thursday as dry weather continues with somewhat
zonal flow aloft. JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 261056
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
356 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.Synopsis...
Mainly warm and dry weather will continue the next week. Weak
systems may bring a few showers to the mountains this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Skies are mostly clear across interior Northern California as high
pressure builds into the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid
80s today with the ridge axis overhead, and again Friday as the
ridge shifts eastward.

An upper level trough will approach the West Coast late Friday.
The current consensus is for the trough to split, with a closed
low possibly forming off the Southern California coast. Hi-Res
models are showing the possibility of a few showers over the
Shasta County mountains late Friday into Saturday, and over the
Sierra and Lassen Park over the weekend. This trough may cool
temperatures a few degrees across the region, but highs will
remain well above normal for this time of year.

Dang

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Basic outlook in the extended forecast is dry weather with above
normal temperatures. Weak ridging re-establishes itself on Monday
over NorCal with valley highs in the low 80s, mountains/foothills
in the 60s and 70s. This will put max temps about 15 degrees
above normal. A weak trough will move into the Pacific NW by
early Tuesday morning and brush far NorCal which will lower
daytime highs by about 5 degrees but they will still be 10
degrees above normal. Only a slight variation to temperatures
Wednesday into Thursday as dry weather continues with somewhat
zonal flow aloft. JBB

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 261017
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
317 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 261017
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
317 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 261017
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
317 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:17 AM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS IS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE NORTH BAY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL MOSTLY OFFSHORE WITH 6.3 MB FROM WMC
TO SFO...THUS STRATUS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAR
INLAND THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE TODAY. A WARMING TREND IS IN PROGRESS AND TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST...TO THE 70S
AND 80S INLAND...WITH WARMEST AREAS HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THESE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY HOT IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DISTRICT IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COOLING AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A DRY
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES THE COAST SWITCHING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE.
THIS DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY.

A WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:01 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS65 KREV 261004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TODAY, BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SOME MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES THIS MORNING. WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY FOR A 5-10 DEGREE WARM UP OVER
WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES, WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEYS.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF INTO IDAHO AND EASTERN NEVADA
AS A TROUGH NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL INTENSIFY
THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS COOLER AIR INVADES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MEAN AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH FOR THE SIERRA FRONT (RENO-CARSON CITY AREA) AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXCEED DAILY RECORDS
FOR A NUMBER OF SITES FRIDAY, INCLUDING RENO.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE
AREA FOR COOLER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS
HAVE REALLY ZEROED IN THIS SOLUTION IN THE PAST FEW RUNS SO CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH HIGHER FOR LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION (AND NO THUNDERSTORMS)
SATURDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
ADJUST WINDS TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES AND
RESULTANT SURFACE TROUGHS AFTER MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TODAY...BUT
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.

ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA THAT IS NEVER COMPLETELY CUT OFF. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE TSTMS...BUT THESE WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE SO THEY
WERE NOT ADDED YET.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
THAN SUNDAY...BUT THEN FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST. ALL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE WAVE WEDNESDAY MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW. OVERALL...THE ZONAL FLOW
MAY ACT TO JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND DROP TEMPS A BIT. THE EXTENT TO THIS DROP IN TEMPS IS HARD TO
QUANTIFY THIS FAR OUT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN
WITH A DIP. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THOUGHT FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP IN FOG
PRONE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. STILL
THINK WE COULD GET FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH MORE DRYING TODAY,
FOG MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AT
THE SURFACE EAST OF THE SIERRA. RIDGE WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE BUT FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF KSVE AND GERLACH
EARLY SATURDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 261004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TODAY, BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SOME MODEST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES THIS MORNING. WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS TODAY FOR A 5-10 DEGREE WARM UP OVER
WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES, WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEYS.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF INTO IDAHO AND EASTERN NEVADA
AS A TROUGH NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL INTENSIFY
THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS COOLER AIR INVADES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MEAN AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH FOR THE SIERRA FRONT (RENO-CARSON CITY AREA) AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXCEED DAILY RECORDS
FOR A NUMBER OF SITES FRIDAY, INCLUDING RENO.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE
AREA FOR COOLER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS
HAVE REALLY ZEROED IN THIS SOLUTION IN THE PAST FEW RUNS SO CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH HIGHER FOR LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION (AND NO THUNDERSTORMS)
SATURDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
ADJUST WINDS TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES AND
RESULTANT SURFACE TROUGHS AFTER MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TODAY...BUT
THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.

ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA THAT IS NEVER COMPLETELY CUT OFF. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE TSTMS...BUT THESE WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE SO THEY
WERE NOT ADDED YET.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
THAN SUNDAY...BUT THEN FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST. ALL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE WAVE WEDNESDAY MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION REMAINS LOW. OVERALL...THE ZONAL FLOW
MAY ACT TO JUST INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND DROP TEMPS A BIT. THE EXTENT TO THIS DROP IN TEMPS IS HARD TO
QUANTIFY THIS FAR OUT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN
WITH A DIP. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THOUGHT FREEZING FOG WOULD DEVELOP IN FOG
PRONE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. STILL
THINK WE COULD GET FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH MORE DRYING TODAY,
FOG MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AT
THE SURFACE EAST OF THE SIERRA. RIDGE WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE BUT FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF KSVE AND GERLACH
EARLY SATURDAY. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KPSR 260945
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986    95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260945
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE OVERALL CONUS FLOW
PATTERN UNDERGOES A MODEST AMPLIFICATION PHASE. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-8DM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH KOAK SAMPLING 582DM AND A
HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONDITIONS HERE IN ARIZONA BY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING RESIDUAL CIRRUS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS EROSION/EVAPORATION OF THESE CLOUDS AND NO IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS IN A 582-584DM RANGE COINCIDENT WITH 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES IN EXCESS OF 141DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (AND APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NUMERICAL AND RAW GUIDANCE
SPREAD IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY POTENTIAL
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR MULTIPLE DAY RECORDS WOULD BE THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND INHIBITING FULL INSOLATION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...HAVE GENERALLY TAILORED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL CONTINUE WITH UNRESOLVED FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DISPLACING
THE SWRN RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION DEPICTING A MORE CLOSED (ALBEIT STILL PROGRESSIVE) WAVE
CARRIES MORE SUPPORT FROM NAEFS MEMBERS...THIS SOLUTION CURIOUSLY
STILL PRODUCED QPF DESPITE ONLY REALIZING BOUNDARY LAYER 3-4 G/KG
MIXING RATIOS...CLOUD BASES 10K-12K MSL...AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THE GEFS PROBABILITIES POINT TOWARDS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...MORE APTLY
SIGNALING A RESPONSE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS.

ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
WITH NO MOISTURE SOURCE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING. H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM A 576-579DM RANGE WHILE 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES APPROACH THE 140DM LEVEL...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF THE WEEKEND YET
STILL NEARLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986    95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 260928
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING WARMING TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
NEAR THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INLAND. FOR THE WEEKEND...
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ON WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. GREATEST ADDITIONAL WARMING TODAY...OF 8 TO
12 DEGREES...IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5 DEGREES WARMER FARTHER INLAND. COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES. GREATER COOLING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING THE LOWER DESERTS. PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SLOW WARMING MAY BEGIN SUNDAY WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA BRINGING WARMING FOR MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...

260900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN
FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LLWS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. FOR
DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 260928
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING WARMING TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
NEAR THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INLAND. FOR THE WEEKEND...
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ON WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. GREATEST ADDITIONAL WARMING TODAY...OF 8 TO
12 DEGREES...IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5 DEGREES WARMER FARTHER INLAND. COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES. GREATER COOLING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING THE LOWER DESERTS. PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SLOW WARMING MAY BEGIN SUNDAY WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA BRINGING WARMING FOR MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...

260900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN
FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LLWS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. FOR
DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 260928
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING WARMING TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
NEAR THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INLAND. FOR THE WEEKEND...
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ON WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. GREATEST ADDITIONAL WARMING TODAY...OF 8 TO
12 DEGREES...IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5 DEGREES WARMER FARTHER INLAND. COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES. GREATER COOLING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING THE LOWER DESERTS. PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SLOW WARMING MAY BEGIN SUNDAY WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA BRINGING WARMING FOR MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...

260900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN
FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LLWS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. FOR
DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 260928
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE WILL
BRING WARMING TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
NEAR THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INLAND. FOR THE WEEKEND...
COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ON WEDNESDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. WEAK
OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. GREATEST ADDITIONAL WARMING TODAY...OF 8 TO
12 DEGREES...IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5 DEGREES WARMER FARTHER INLAND. COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES. GREATER COOLING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING THE LOWER DESERTS. PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SLOW WARMING MAY BEGIN SUNDAY WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA BRINGING WARMING FOR MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...

260900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN
FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD CREATE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LLWS BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY...CREATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. FOR
DETAILS...SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM



000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 260550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING BUT DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260504
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1003 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED NORTHERLY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY FEW
PATCHES OF SCT CIRRUS LINGER EAST OF PHOENIX AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DRYING UNDER
THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH AREA PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.30" AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING VISUALLY NOTED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
ON 00Z RAOBS. STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY
HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...WITH DAYTIME GUSTS PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 20KT RANGE.

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SHIFTS TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE CA COAST
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 500MB HEIGHTS SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 580DMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THEIR WARMEST READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH MANY SITES
AOA THE 90F MARK. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR HAS ONLY SEEN TWO 90F
DAYS...OR WARMER...SO FAR THIS YEAR...BACK ON MARCH 16 AND 17
RESPECTIVELY. THE YUMA AREA HAS SEEN QUITE A FEW MORE THIS
MARCH...AT LEAST 7 SO FAR. UPDATES TONIGHT INCLUDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE ON-GOING
TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 110 PM MST/PDT...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIV235EN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 260446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY DUE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
AND BRING COOLING THERE...BUT IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
AGAIN INLAND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AGAIN MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR...WITH LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT MID-EVENING. LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE
EAST WERE OCCURRING IN A FEW MOUNTAIN NEAR-CREST LOCATIONS...THOUGH
WEAK ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE STILL OCCURRING TO THE
EAST...2.4 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO IMPERIAL...BUT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
TRENDS. LOCAL WRF CROSS-SECTIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOW A MODERATE
HYDRAULIC JUMP OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH TUESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARM IN MOST PLACES...WITH 80S ALMOST UP TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...THOUGH A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON TO COOL THINGS OFF A FEW DEGREES. SOME LOWER TO MID 90S
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE 18 DEG C TEMPS AT 850 MB IN THE VALLEYS AND
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE LOWER DESERTS. FRIDAY WILL NOT
HAVE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE...AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL END EARLY IN THE
DAY...REPLACED BY A THERMAL TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO BRING IN WELL-DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. THIS
WILL BRING COOLING...PROBABLY AT LEAST 4-5 DEGREES F AT THE
COAST...WITH AN EARLY MAXIMUM TEMP AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY 11
AM BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF. THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM
FRIDAY AS THE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
EVEN THOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. THE MTNS/DESERTS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE HOTTER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND THEN CHIHUAHUA SATURDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MARINE LAYER
STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT EARLIER. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH SOME ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER OUR AREA. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY WITH HOW MUCH BASED ON DIFFERENCES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN...WEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY
TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS...LIKELY MUCH
LONGER AS NO TROUGHS THAT ARE STRONG ARE IN SIGHT FOR SO-CAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

260300Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT MOST IF NOT ALL AIRFIELDS. WHEN
THE SEABREEZES STARTS ALONG THE COAST...ONCE YOU GET OFF THE SURFACE
AROUCND 3K AND ABOVE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS
ALONG WITH WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL BE A RISK NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
THIS SOUTH SWELL IS ONLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND NOT A MAJOR HAZARD TO
MARINERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 PM...A BUILDING SOUTH SWELL FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORM IS
GOING TO BRING ONE OF THE FIRST LARGER SOUTH SWELLS IN A WHILE. THIS
SOUTH SWELL WITH LONG PERIODS REALLY STARTS TO MOVE THE SAND AROUND
AND SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME SOME REALLY BIG RIP CURRENT EVENTS.
TIMING LOOKS SET FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 260446
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY DUE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
AND BRING COOLING THERE...BUT IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND
AGAIN INLAND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AGAIN MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR...WITH LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AT MID-EVENING. LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE
EAST WERE OCCURRING IN A FEW MOUNTAIN NEAR-CREST LOCATIONS...THOUGH
WEAK ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE STILL OCCURRING TO THE
EAST...2.4 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO IMPERIAL...BUT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
TRENDS. LOCAL WRF CROSS-SECTIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOW A MODERATE
HYDRAULIC JUMP OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH TUESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARM IN MOST PLACES...WITH 80S ALMOST UP TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...THOUGH A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON TO COOL THINGS OFF A FEW DEGREES. SOME LOWER TO MID 90S
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE 18 DEG C TEMPS AT 850 MB IN THE VALLEYS AND
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE LOWER DESERTS. FRIDAY WILL NOT
HAVE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE...AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL END EARLY IN THE
DAY...REPLACED BY A THERMAL TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO BRING IN WELL-DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. THIS
WILL BRING COOLING...PROBABLY AT LEAST 4-5 DEGREES F AT THE
COAST...WITH AN EARLY MAXIMUM TEMP AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY 11
AM BASED ON THE LOCAL WRF. THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM
FRIDAY AS THE PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
EVEN THOUGH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. THE MTNS/DESERTS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE HOTTER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY AND THEN CHIHUAHUA SATURDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MARINE LAYER
STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT EARLIER. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH SOME ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER OUR AREA. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY WITH HOW MUCH BASED ON DIFFERENCES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN...WEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY
TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A COOLING TREND.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS...LIKELY MUCH
LONGER AS NO TROUGHS THAT ARE STRONG ARE IN SIGHT FOR SO-CAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

260300Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT MOST IF NOT ALL AIRFIELDS. WHEN
THE SEABREEZES STARTS ALONG THE COAST...ONCE YOU GET OFF THE SURFACE
AROUCND 3K AND ABOVE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS
ALONG WITH WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL BE A RISK NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
THIS SOUTH SWELL IS ONLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND NOT A MAJOR HAZARD TO
MARINERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.BEACHES...

800 PM...A BUILDING SOUTH SWELL FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORM IS
GOING TO BRING ONE OF THE FIRST LARGER SOUTH SWELLS IN A WHILE. THIS
SOUTH SWELL WITH LONG PERIODS REALLY STARTS TO MOVE THE SAND AROUND
AND SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME SOME REALLY BIG RIP CURRENT EVENTS.
TIMING LOOKS SET FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 260402
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
902 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE SEA BREEZE
RETURNS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N AND 122W...OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST
OF LOS ANGELES. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. A HOT
AND DRY AIR MASS IS ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
STAGNATES. OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH WEAKER...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SOME BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NO WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN
EARLIER SEA BREEZE AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST
AND 3-6 DEGREES COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP MONDAY FOR
A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN FLATTENS
OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY START
SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 3 AM THURSDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. ONLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN POINT MUGU AND
SANTA MONICA. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.BEACHES...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURF AND
CURRENTS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ON BEACHES WITH GOOD
SOUTH EXPOSURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS OFTEN PRODUCE LONG LULLS IN WAVE ACTIVITY
BETWEEN SETS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 260354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A 582DM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING. THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 35N 135W AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA... AND WERE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO 10
DEGREES WARMER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WHICH ARE BETWEEN 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MORESO
TOMORROW AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING ONSHORE AND ENHANCING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY
IN PLAY. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVE DIRECTLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WITH MANY OF THE WEAKER SYSTEMS OF LATE...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE TOO DRY TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. INSTEAD... EXPECT A GRADUAL
COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE REGION. MEDIUM TERM MODELS BUILD ANOTHER...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER... RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS DOUBTFUL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK... AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS WE MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE RAINY SEASON.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:16 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TOMORROW BUT
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 260329
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
829 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather through the end of the week. Weak weather
systems will move though the far northern part of the state
starting this weekend into next week. Otherwise...dry and warm
weather conditions to continue.

&&

.Discussion...
Skies remain mostly clear this evening in the interior as a ridge
of high pressure takes control over the area. Temperatures are
running 5 to 15 degrees warmer this evening than this time last
night. The ridge of high pressure looks to become the strongest
over the region on Thursday. Temperatures look like they may peak
Thursday for the northern half of the forecast. Little change is
expected over the Southern Sacramento valley and places to the
south on Friday from Thursdays highs.

All models show a shortwave approaching the northwest coast during
the day on Friday which will begin to break down the ridge over
the interior. 850 mb temperatures cool slightly for all interior
areas indicating that some synoptic cooling will occur for Friday.

The shortwave moves through Friday night and Saturday but most
areas will remain dry. The only areas that look to have a chance
for some precipitation are over the northern mountains and far
northern Sierra Nevada.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Some model differences are complicating the forecast for Sunday. The
ECMWF quickly exits a weak shortwave out of the area and rebuilds
the ridge, bringing a return to dry conditions and very warm
temperatures. The GFS is currently showing a closed low gradually
passing over the area on Sunday. This would bring the potential
for showers across much of the forecast area, with lingering
shower activity (and possibly convection) focused over the Sierra
by afternoon and evening. The GFS has had trouble over the past
few runs deciding how it wants to handle this low. For now, will
lean towards the drier, warmer, more progressive ECMF and GEM
models. Will keep just a slight chance of Sierra crest showers south
of I80.

Some high temperatures on Sunday and Monday could be record
breaking. The highest potential for records would be south of
I80, where sunshine combining with a warm airmass would bring
highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s. Cloud cover is expected to
be more extensive to the north, and could limit heating there some.

There is good agreement as weaker systems brushes by to the north
Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to stay to the
north and west of the forecast area, with an increase in cloud
cover and a slight cool down being the main effects. An
additional wave passes by to the north on Wednesday, following a
similar path. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal levels. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the period as high pressure builds
into the area. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds generally less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
620 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REAMIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/620 PM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
620 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0000Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REAMIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/620 PM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 260044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 260044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH 04Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 252239
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather through the end of the week. Weak weather
systems will move though the far northern part of the state
starting this weekend into next week. Otherwise...dry and warm
weather conditions to continue.

&&

.Discussion...
Noon-time temps running some 11-14 degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago
from MYV Nwd...and 1-8 warmer from the Sac area...Swd into the
Nrn SJV. Nly flow from increasing Nly pressure gradients (up to 4
mbs) and building high pressure over the region also resulted in
adiabatic warming effects over the Nrn half of the CWA. The
strong ridge with greatest height anomalies from 700 to 200 mbs
will continue to build over Norcal through Thu. Near record or
record max temps possible both Thu and Fri especially in the Srn
Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as maxes forecast to climb well into
the 80s throughout the Central Valley. Warmest day in the area on
Thu with the ridge axis forecast to be over the area...and then
primarily in the Srn Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as the ridge axis
shifts inland and onshore flow develops. Will lean towards the
higher members of the NCEP SREF plume for maxes at some of the
sites for the next couple of days for the Srn locations...as the
Nrn locations appear not warm enough.

Upvalley flow from the approaching short wave is likely to lead to
some cooling in the Nrn half of the Vly...while the cooling
effects of the Delta Breeze are delayed a day in the Nrn SJV on
Fri. Warm wx also expected in the Mtns with cooling beginning Fri
in the coastal and Nrn Mtns...continuing into Sat and spreading
into the Siernev.

Approaching short wave weakens (What else would we expect?) as it
moves inland late Fri nite and Sat with chance PoPs limited
primarily to the Nrn mtns during the day and possibly near the
crest of the Siernev Sat evening. We leaned towards the GEM/ECMWF
solutions which show a much more progressive short wave moving
through Norcal than the GFS which cut-offs an upper low over
Norcal. This solution would be more showery/unstable for Norcal.
A strong Pacific jet/Wly flow into the Pac NW/B.C. area is
expected to lead to a progressive pattern.    JHM


.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Some model differences are complicating the forecast for Sunday. The
ECMWF quickly exits a weak shortwave out of the area and rebuilds
the ridge, bringing a return to dry conditions and very warm
temperatures. The GFS is currently showing a closed low gradually
passing over the area on Sunday. This would bring the potential
for showers across much of the forecast area, with lingering
shower activity (and possibly convection) focused over the Sierra
by afternoon and evening. The GFS has had trouble over the past
few runs deciding how it wants to handle this low. For now, will
lean towards the drier, warmer, more progressive ECMF and GEM
models. Will keep just a slight chance of Sierra crest showers south
of I80.

Some high temperatures on Sunday and Monday could be record
breaking. The highest potential for records would be south of
I80, where sunshine combining with a warm airmass would bring
highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s. Cloud cover is expected to
be more extensive to the north, and could limit heating there some.

There is good agreement as weaker systems brushes by to the north
Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to stay to the
north and west of the forecast area, with an increase in cloud
cover and a slight cool down being the main effects. An
additional wave passes by to the north on Wednesday, following a
similar path. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal levels. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the period as high pressure builds
into the area. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds generally less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 252239
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather through the end of the week. Weak weather
systems will move though the far northern part of the state
starting this weekend into next week. Otherwise...dry and warm
weather conditions to continue.

&&

.Discussion...
Noon-time temps running some 11-14 degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago
from MYV Nwd...and 1-8 warmer from the Sac area...Swd into the
Nrn SJV. Nly flow from increasing Nly pressure gradients (up to 4
mbs) and building high pressure over the region also resulted in
adiabatic warming effects over the Nrn half of the CWA. The
strong ridge with greatest height anomalies from 700 to 200 mbs
will continue to build over Norcal through Thu. Near record or
record max temps possible both Thu and Fri especially in the Srn
Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as maxes forecast to climb well into
the 80s throughout the Central Valley. Warmest day in the area on
Thu with the ridge axis forecast to be over the area...and then
primarily in the Srn Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as the ridge axis
shifts inland and onshore flow develops. Will lean towards the
higher members of the NCEP SREF plume for maxes at some of the
sites for the next couple of days for the Srn locations...as the
Nrn locations appear not warm enough.

Upvalley flow from the approaching short wave is likely to lead to
some cooling in the Nrn half of the Vly...while the cooling
effects of the Delta Breeze are delayed a day in the Nrn SJV on
Fri. Warm wx also expected in the Mtns with cooling beginning Fri
in the coastal and Nrn Mtns...continuing into Sat and spreading
into the Siernev.

Approaching short wave weakens (What else would we expect?) as it
moves inland late Fri nite and Sat with chance PoPs limited
primarily to the Nrn mtns during the day and possibly near the
crest of the Siernev Sat evening. We leaned towards the GEM/ECMWF
solutions which show a much more progressive short wave moving
through Norcal than the GFS which cut-offs an upper low over
Norcal. This solution would be more showery/unstable for Norcal.
A strong Pacific jet/Wly flow into the Pac NW/B.C. area is
expected to lead to a progressive pattern.    JHM


.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Some model differences are complicating the forecast for Sunday. The
ECMWF quickly exits a weak shortwave out of the area and rebuilds
the ridge, bringing a return to dry conditions and very warm
temperatures. The GFS is currently showing a closed low gradually
passing over the area on Sunday. This would bring the potential
for showers across much of the forecast area, with lingering
shower activity (and possibly convection) focused over the Sierra
by afternoon and evening. The GFS has had trouble over the past
few runs deciding how it wants to handle this low. For now, will
lean towards the drier, warmer, more progressive ECMF and GEM
models. Will keep just a slight chance of Sierra crest showers south
of I80.

Some high temperatures on Sunday and Monday could be record
breaking. The highest potential for records would be south of
I80, where sunshine combining with a warm airmass would bring
highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s. Cloud cover is expected to
be more extensive to the north, and could limit heating there some.

There is good agreement as weaker systems brushes by to the north
Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to stay to the
north and west of the forecast area, with an increase in cloud
cover and a slight cool down being the main effects. An
additional wave passes by to the north on Wednesday, following a
similar path. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal levels. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the period as high pressure builds
into the area. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds generally less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 252239
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather through the end of the week. Weak weather
systems will move though the far northern part of the state
starting this weekend into next week. Otherwise...dry and warm
weather conditions to continue.

&&

.Discussion...
Noon-time temps running some 11-14 degrees warmer than 24 hrs ago
from MYV Nwd...and 1-8 warmer from the Sac area...Swd into the
Nrn SJV. Nly flow from increasing Nly pressure gradients (up to 4
mbs) and building high pressure over the region also resulted in
adiabatic warming effects over the Nrn half of the CWA. The
strong ridge with greatest height anomalies from 700 to 200 mbs
will continue to build over Norcal through Thu. Near record or
record max temps possible both Thu and Fri especially in the Srn
Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as maxes forecast to climb well into
the 80s throughout the Central Valley. Warmest day in the area on
Thu with the ridge axis forecast to be over the area...and then
primarily in the Srn Sac and Nrn San Joaquin Vly as the ridge axis
shifts inland and onshore flow develops. Will lean towards the
higher members of the NCEP SREF plume for maxes at some of the
sites for the next couple of days for the Srn locations...as the
Nrn locations appear not warm enough.

Upvalley flow from the approaching short wave is likely to lead to
some cooling in the Nrn half of the Vly...while the cooling
effects of the Delta Breeze are delayed a day in the Nrn SJV on
Fri. Warm wx also expected in the Mtns with cooling beginning Fri
in the coastal and Nrn Mtns...continuing into Sat and spreading
into the Siernev.

Approaching short wave weakens (What else would we expect?) as it
moves inland late Fri nite and Sat with chance PoPs limited
primarily to the Nrn mtns during the day and possibly near the
crest of the Siernev Sat evening. We leaned towards the GEM/ECMWF
solutions which show a much more progressive short wave moving
through Norcal than the GFS which cut-offs an upper low over
Norcal. This solution would be more showery/unstable for Norcal.
A strong Pacific jet/Wly flow into the Pac NW/B.C. area is
expected to lead to a progressive pattern.    JHM


.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Some model differences are complicating the forecast for Sunday. The
ECMWF quickly exits a weak shortwave out of the area and rebuilds
the ridge, bringing a return to dry conditions and very warm
temperatures. The GFS is currently showing a closed low gradually
passing over the area on Sunday. This would bring the potential
for showers across much of the forecast area, with lingering
shower activity (and possibly convection) focused over the Sierra
by afternoon and evening. The GFS has had trouble over the past
few runs deciding how it wants to handle this low. For now, will
lean towards the drier, warmer, more progressive ECMF and GEM
models. Will keep just a slight chance of Sierra crest showers south
of I80.

Some high temperatures on Sunday and Monday could be record
breaking. The highest potential for records would be south of
I80, where sunshine combining with a warm airmass would bring
highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s. Cloud cover is expected to
be more extensive to the north, and could limit heating there some.

There is good agreement as weaker systems brushes by to the north
Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to stay to the
north and west of the forecast area, with an increase in cloud
cover and a slight cool down being the main effects. An
additional wave passes by to the north on Wednesday, following a
similar path. Temperatures are still expected to be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal levels. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected thru the period as high pressure builds
into the area. Few to sct high clouds possible with variable
winds generally less than 10 kts.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KHNX 252231
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND LITTLE MORE
THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL BE PROFOUNDLY WARMER AND
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORDS THURSDAY AND MOST LIKELY EXCEED THEM
IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT TREKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS
WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ESTABLISH AN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL ENABLE SOME OCEAN COOLED
AIR TO INFILTRATE THE SJ VLY BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME SYNOPTIC COOLING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NONETHELESS...HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND...
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO LIFT DUE TO AN ABYSMALLY
LOW SNOW PACK COULD MEAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY BE ALL THAT
CAN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE ENSEMBLES FORECAST A RATHER BENIGN AND
UNFORTUNATELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S IN THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-25       85:1997     52:1980     59:1896     32:1964
KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972

KBFL 03-25       90:1997     48:1977     59:1909     32:1907
KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 252231
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUT
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND LITTLE MORE
THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL BE PROFOUNDLY WARMER AND
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GOLDEN STATE. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL CHALLENGE THE RECORDS THURSDAY AND MOST LIKELY EXCEED THEM
IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT TREKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS
WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ESTABLISH AN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL ENABLE SOME OCEAN COOLED
AIR TO INFILTRATE THE SJ VLY BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND ALSO
ALLOW FOR SOME SYNOPTIC COOLING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NONETHELESS...HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND...
THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO LIFT DUE TO AN ABYSMALLY
LOW SNOW PACK COULD MEAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY BE ALL THAT
CAN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE ENSEMBLES FORECAST A RATHER BENIGN AND
UNFORTUNATELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S IN THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-25       85:1997     52:1980     59:1896     32:1964
KFAT 03-26       87:1988     49:1991     57:1928     34:1942
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972

KBFL 03-25       90:1997     48:1977     59:1909     32:1907
KBFL 03-26       87:1997     52:1936     61:1971     21:1907
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 252222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TODAY SENDING THE BULK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WELL
TO OUR NORTH. 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE 10-20F DEGREES WARMER
AT MANY INLAND AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 3PM. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON THU. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MORE DRYING AND WARMING TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COAST ON THE OTHER HAND WILL NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
THANKS TO A DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER AND GROWING STRATUS FIELD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK NE AND E DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
DEEPER LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL BE HARDER TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150W WILL STEADILY HEAD EASTWARD THU THROUGH
FRI. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHEARING THIS TROUGH APART
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ECWMF AND NAM12 WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT ONSHORE FRI EVENING...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION. ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NW CAL BY EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE DO
SEE ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST...SUSPECT IT WILL BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE; MISTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO CREATE
WEAK INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN
DRIVEN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
SPRINGS BACK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD INTO MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES MON NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE CLIPPING THE AREA BY WED. FOR
NOW WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES TUE AND WED. IT
IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARMTH TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ARRIVAL
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AT UKI. ALONG THE COAST...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED
MARINE STRATUS SEVERAL MILES OUT TO SEA NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY REVERSE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE...PARTICULARLY AT CEC...BUT MOST
LIKELY THEY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHEN THEY DO REACH THE
COAST...IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN PLACES THAT REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUBDUED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH ALL LOCAL BUOYS REGISTERING 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS AT 10
TO 11 SECONDS. FOR THE MOST PART THE SEA STATE AT THE BUOY SITES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS DOMINATED BY LINGERING WESTERLY
SWELL AS WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY TO A
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...AREAS FROM ROUGHLY HUMBOLDT BAY
SOUTHWARD HAVE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE SIGNATURES IN THE OFFSHORE STRATUS DECK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATELY LEEWARD FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO...WHERE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. AS
A RESULT...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE IN
THIS AREA BUT STILL NOT MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY AT 10 TO 20 KTS ...BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
MODEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ADDITION TO A
SERIES OF REINFORCING MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS...AND AT A
MINIMUM ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL EASILY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...NEARING RECORDS.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROF...WHICH HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY...IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LATEST BEST-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE PUSHING
OUR 850MB TEMPS UP INTO THE 20-22C RANGE...AND 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 570-572DM RANGE BY SATURDAY...ARE INDICATING
THAT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS AOA 90 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY...AND UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND...OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS (SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S) ALLOWING FOR GOOD OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH OUR FORECASTED HIGHS ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY DAY WE MAY THREATEN ANY DAILY
RECORDS AT SKY HARBOR WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WHEN WE COULD COME QUITE
CLOSE TO CHALLENGING THE CURRENT RECORD OF 95.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO TAKE A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE...AND PRECIP BRIEFLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EURO AND
GEM BRING A MUCH WEAKER...AND DRIER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...WITH
ANY RAINFALL STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL A
LOT A SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER...HAVE LEFT OUR SINGLE-
DIGIT POPS ALONE FOR NOW...WHILE STILL ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO
FALL A BIT. ONCE HE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE GFS AND EURO THEN SEEM TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT FLAT
RIDGING...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH
03Z THU...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FROM 06Z TO 19Z THU.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. THROUGH 03Z THU
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS...DECREASING TO NORTH 8 TO 12 KNOTS
FROM 03Z TO 12Z THU.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 252126
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...

BREEZY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THEN WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH  WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND RECORD
LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOONS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A COOLING TREND...BUT A HIGH
BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THE WARMUP HAS BEGUN AND NORTH WINDS HAVE
ABATED. WE ARE NOW TRANSITIONING TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT AND WE WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 35
MPH. BIGGEST THING WILL BE THE VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND EVEN SOME INLAND COASTAL ZONES IN LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES AND 80S ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FRIDAY THOUGH
EVEN LESS OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND BRING AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
AND 5-10 DEGREES WORTH OF COOLING FOR THE COAST AND 3-6 DEGREES
COOLING FOR THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH MOST
AREAS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL POP BACK UP
MONDAY FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT THEN
FLATTENS OUT AGAIN WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SO A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TUE/WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY
START SEEING SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING AT SOME POINT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT DAY THAT WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z

AT 1700 Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL... SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KPRB 13Z-18Z.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL CREATE LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140 OVER AND NEAR HIER TRRN WITH
MTN WAVE ACTIVITY AND LLWS LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-140 WITH
LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 PM

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 25
KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FAIRLY STEEP AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 252125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
225 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 252125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
225 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COAST. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3 TO 11 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE
COAST TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OFFSHORE
WITH THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT HOLDING AT 4.9 MB...BUT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN TO 7.5 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING (BY THE NAM12). THE SFO-
SAC GRADIENT NOW DOWN TO 0.5 MB...AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS
ALSO NOW UP TO 3.7 MB. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD...AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST...LOOK FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOMORROW AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MONTEREY COUNTY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY...A DRY FRONTAL BAND IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY FOR
GRADUAL...MODERATE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW ARE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
(3/26) AND FRIDAY (3/27):

                          THU 3/26 RECORD     FRI 3/27 RECORD
CLIMATE STATION           HIGH AND YEAR       HIGH AND YEAR

SF BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD                88 IN 1930          90 IN 1923
  SAN RAFAEL               84 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  NAPA                     86 IN 1988          86 IN 1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN   82 IN 1930          84 IN 1923
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT    79 IN 1952          77 IN 1986
  OAKLAND MUSEUM           80 IN 1988          79 IN 1986
  OAKLAND AIRPORT          80 IN 1952          82 IN 1951
  RICHMOND                 84 IN 1970          82 IN 1952
  LIVERMORE                88 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  MOFFETT FIELD            83 IN 1988          82 IN 1969
  SAN JOSE                 84 IN 1988          85 IN 1923
  GILROY                   87 IN 1997          85 IN 1969

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                 84 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  SANTA CRUZ               88 IN 1988          87 IN 1969
  SALINAS                  88 IN 1969          85 IN 1969
  SALINAS AIRPORT          87 IN 1988          80 IN 1969
  KING CITY                89 IN 1988          86 IN 1969

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: DYKEMA

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