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000
FXUS66 KLOX 260011
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST ARE THE
ANTICIPATED WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTHERN CAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AV BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TODAY.
HEIGHTS GO UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PLAGUE THE COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAY ONLY BURN OFF TO THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BUMP UP IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS TOMORROW.
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY
NIGHT SO A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR
CANYON MOUTHS.
ON MONDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+KT NORTHWESTERLY JET. CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WOULD EXPECT SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THE OTHER
AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTH SLOPE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING RAIN-WISE FOR
THE SOUTH COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BUT
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS BY THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WEST COAST STARTING THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SQUASH ANY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S LATE IN THE WEEK FOR
INLAND VALLEYS. THE ECMWF MODEL HINTS AT SOME BACKBUILDING OF THE
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD DROP HEIGHTS
SOME...BUT GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...26/0020Z...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAFS...A DEEP MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO
PUSH IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE EDDY AND BRING SOMEWHAT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT KSBA TO REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBA.
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO FORM AFTER 07-08Z TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST SITES AND KPRB A FEW HOURS LATER...ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING AND HEIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS FOR KPRB.
S OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND
COVERAGE...BUT PUSHING FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE VENTURA COAST TO
KOXR. THE TIMING OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARRIVING AT THE AIRFIELDS MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
VENTURA COUNTY. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY SOUTH COAST
SHOULD LEAVE SKIES WITH VFR CONDS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS
FOR TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS
FROM TAF TIME OF 07Z. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
THE ENTIRE DAY.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AND SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. BUT
SHOULD LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER.
$$
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 252353
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND
THE SAN MATEO COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLDER AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ON THE
WATER VAPOR A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE SEEN ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. UNTIL THEN...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A MORE DEFINED MARINE LAYER. HI-RES
MODELS EVEN GENERATE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE FOR MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IS REPORTED. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY DIP CLOSE TO THE UPPER
30S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED TOO
MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF RAIN IS
SLOWER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO. RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SPREADING TOWARD SAN
FRANCISCO BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE MAY
LUCK OUT AND HAVE MUCH OF THEIR MEMORIAL DAY DRY THROUGH 00Z.
THERE AFTER...ALL MODELS PUSH PRECIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR NOT TO BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...0.25-0.5 IN FOR NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SANTA
CRUZ...ELSEWHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. MEMORIAL DAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN BREAK 70 DEGREES. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
ONE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DROPS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWS WARMING AND DRYING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EPAC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:47 PM PDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS
GATHERING OVER SAN MATEO COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTY. SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS 3.5 MB. ONSHORE WINDS WILL USHER IN
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z. LOW
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FORECAST BY 07Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-04Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KEKA 252231
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION DEVELOPED TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE IN COASTAL
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO OVER A QUARTER INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE LEAVING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THE EVENING AT THE SAME
TIME AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AND
EXPANDING THE RAIN OVER ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD HEAVIER RAINFALL THEN WAS PREDICTED IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE INCREASED THE QPF FORECAST FOR THE REGION IN LINE
WITH THE RFC. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES
DURING MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH RAINFALL DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR
MENDOCINO COUNTY TO OVER AN INCH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STILL ANTICIPATED HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A LAST SHOT OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION
BEFORE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WEST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RPA
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE, SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT
TIMES AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT KCEC AND KACV REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS65 KPSR 252220
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 PM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS CONTINUING TO EJECT SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...ERODING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
WILL GRADUALLY KNOCK HEIGHTS DOWN AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE SHORT WAVES QUICKLY SERVE TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THE MOST SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WITH
570-576DM 500MB HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AND WINDS TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
CURRENT THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN
COOLER AIR...HELPING TO DIP OUR DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FOR THE DESERT ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL ALSO
BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS TROUGH--WELL BELOW 4G/KG ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...SO THE BEST MOISTURE...
DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS FAR SOUTH WILL
BE SOME INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT WILL FURTHER SERVE
TO MITIGATE THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. IN THE
PHOENIX AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z. TYPICAL DRAINAGE
FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER. TYPICAL SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED IN SE CA AS
WELL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON MONDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL
KEEP FIRE DANGER VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN RECOVER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. WARMING
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 252201
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
301 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA TOWARD
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST U.S. REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH THROUGH NCAL SUNDAY.
THIS WILL STRENGHTEN ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA LATE ON SUNDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY AND
MOJAVE DESERT AREA. STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AS
A DEEPER SHORT WAVE REACHES THE PAC NW AND NCAL. THIS SYSTEM IN
THE EPAC ALONG 40N IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 IN AND UPPER JET 120+KT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS COLD. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. MOST OF THE VORTICITY
ENERGY MAY PUSH THROUGH NCAL INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY BE FOCUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. SNOW
LEVELS MAY LOWER NEAR 9KFT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 0C DEGREES.
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER THE HIGH SIERRA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER JET WILL BECOME ALIGN WITH GRADS
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KFAT 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
KBFL 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ095-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 252156
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
256 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND DEEPEN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW WITH THE
LOW DEEPENING MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE NEAR 150W WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
VALLEY AND SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
START TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND THE NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. FOR THE
AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR WEST SLOPES WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND PLACES SOUTH IN THE
VALLEY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE REMAINING. NOT A LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE VALLEY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TRACE
TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD FAIR
A LITTLE BETTER WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS OUR REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THESE DAYS WILL GENERALLY
BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WED AND THURS WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT THE REGION WILL
UNDERGO A WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY THAT WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AT TAF SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS FAR NORCAL.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF SITES
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-25 KTS WHEN THE DELTA BREEZE PEAKS TODAY
BETWEEN 22-03Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
RIDGETOPS. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 252117
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST ARE THE
ANTICIPATED WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTHERN CAL TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINED SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AV BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TODAY.
HEIGHTS GO UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FOR
INLAND AREAS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PLAGUE THE COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAY ONLY BURN OFF TO THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BUMP UP IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS TOMORROW.
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SUNDAY
NIGHT SO A WEAK SUNDOWNER IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR
CANYON MOUTHS.
ON MONDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+KT NORTHWESTERLY JET. CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WOULD EXPECT SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THE OTHER
AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTH SLOPE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING RAIN-WISE FOR
THE SOUTH COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. WOULD EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY BUT
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS BY THEN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WEST COAST STARTING THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SQUASH ANY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S LATE IN THE WEEK FOR
INLAND VALLEYS. THE ECMWF MODEL HINTS AT SOME BACKBUILDING OF THE
CENTRAL STATES TROUGH BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD DROP HEIGHTS
SOME...BUT GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ON THE WARMER SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1800Z...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS...WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER EXPECTED
TO BRING SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT KSBA TO REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FORMING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVERNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SITES
AND KPRB...ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND HEIGHT OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR KPRB.
S OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND
COVERAGE...BUT PUSHING FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE VENTURA COAST TO
KOXR. THE TIMING OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARRIVING AT THE AIRFIELDS MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS FOR TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 07Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN... AND THE TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
$$
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 252111
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
211 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:10 PM PDT SATURDAY...COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PESKY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AND
THE SAN MATEO COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLDER AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ON THE
WATER VAPOR A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE SEEN ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. UNTIL THEN...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A MORE DEFINED MARINE LAYER. HI-RES
MODELS EVEN GENERATE A LITTLE BIT OF QPF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE FOR MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IS REPORTED. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY DIP CLOSE TO THE UPPER
30S. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED TOO
MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF RAIN IS
SLOWER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO. RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SPREADING TOWARD SAN
FRANCISCO BAY BY MID AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE MAY
LUCK OUT AND HAVE MUCH OF THEIR MEMORIAL DAY DRY THROUGH 00Z.
THERE AFTER...ALL MODELS PUSH PRECIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR NOT TO BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...0.25-0.5 IN FOR NORTH BAY AND COASTAL SANTA
CRUZ...ELSEWHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. MEMORIAL DAY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN BREAK 70 DEGREES. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
ONE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DROPS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWS WARMING AND DRYING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EPAC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:04 AM PDT SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. CIGS HAVE
RETREATED FROM SF BAY BUT LINGERING ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT KSFO. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS INTRUSION LATE
TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS TO
RETURN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...KSNS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SHORTLY.
CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT KMRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING BACK INLAND
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 252108
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN MOVE INLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES ON MEMORIAL
DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT LIFT FROM A JET
SEGMENT OVER NORTHERN WASHOE TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD COUNTERACT
THE LOW INSTABILITY.
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 10PM, BUT WILL RETURN BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 30 MPH IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND AT 30-35 MPH GUSTS ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 FROM SUSANVILLE THROUGH RENO-CARSON AND DOWN INTO MONO
COUNTY. WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES,
ESPECIALLY PYRAMID, LAHONTAN, TOPAZ, BRIDGEPORT, AND CROWLEY.
WAVES ON TAHOE COULD KICK UP AS HIGH AS 3 FEET.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FOR
MEMORIAL DAY, AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN SHOWERS FOR THE END
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A 1-1.5 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE MORNING. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER JET WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS NORTH OF PORTOLA-GERLACH BY MID MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN
NEVADA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND LASSEN COUNTY, WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY COULD
PUSH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR 8000 FEET ONCE THE SHOWERS START,
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN AT 8000-9000 FEET FOR MOST OF
THE EVENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADS ARE
CARSON, EBBETTS AND SONORA PASSES, WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSH
COULD CREATE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS
MAY NOT REACH TIOGA PASS TO MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH. BRONG
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AFTERNOON HEATING TUESDAY WILL CREATE INSTABILITY
BELOW ABOUT 10,000 FEET BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL THE TROUGH DOES NOT
LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH, THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NOSES INTO NEVADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD DECREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE SIERRA AND CREATE BREEZY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE.
NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME DRYING AND A WEAK WARMING
TREND. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK RIDGE
OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW SIDE. OFFSHORE RIDGING COULD SHIFT EAST FASTER AND PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING BY FRIDAY...OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS COULD
EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. JCM
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SURFACE GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS THROUGH 04Z. A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LASSEN AND
WASHOE COUNTIES WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY, WITH PEAK SURFACE
GUSTS NEAR 30KTS. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE RENO-TAHOE-CARSON AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN THE SIERRA,
PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSGX 252035
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DEEP MARINE LAYER
TO PERSIST...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND AND THROUGH THIS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...RELATIVELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH THE
SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT AND THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL GRADIENT NOW UP TO
8.1 MBS AND 7.5 MBS...RESPECTIVELY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
GRADIENTS PEAKING BETWEEN 9 AND 10 MBS THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY A LITTLE WEAK. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MBS ALSO
SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT WINDS. FOR THIS REASON...THINK THE FAVORED WINDY
SPOTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COACHELLA VALLEY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THIS TIME
YESTERDAY....WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
PUSHING BACK INTO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST...WITH SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THE EVENING. THE BULK OF THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY
COME IN LATER TONIGHT THOUGH...MAKING FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DECENT PUSH OF THE MARINE STRATUS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT...WITH THE MARINE LAYER REMAINING BETWEEN
3000 AND 3500 FEET.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...EVEN THOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN A BIT LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH A MINOR WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO HINT AT SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...AS THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY DEEPER.
THEREFORE...EXPANDED THE AREA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE COASTAL SLOPES LIKELY SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND...AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER
PERSISTS. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY TYPE STRENGTHS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
252000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL AGAIN
SPREAD 15-20 SM INLAND BETWEEN 26/0100Z-0300Z THIS EVENING. BASES
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS 3500 FT MSL.
VIS WILL REMAIN ABV 5 SM...LOCALLY LOWER WHERE THE CLOUDS INTERSECT
TERRAIN. STRATUS WILL ERODE BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN
26/1600Z-1800Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SFC WEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER THE DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY
MORNINGS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
000
FXUS65 KPSR 252031
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
MOVE IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIS/IR SATELLITE REVEALS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND DRY...DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AZ DESERTS...SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INTO THE 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE KTWC SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DO SHOW A REPEATED SHALLOW
MOISTURE SEEP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER DUE TO A STRONGER NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO MAR THE SUNNY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR OUR AREA. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW A 20-30MB INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...AND WITH THE
DRY CONDITIONS...SUNSHINE AND MIXING POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON TEMPS
SHOULD HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK FOR SOME OF OUR
WARMER DESERT SITES. THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURE THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE DAYS OF THIS BLOCKING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PINWHEELS AROUND THE LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN FORECAST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING UNDER THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TODAY A BIT WITH
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A COUPLE MINOR
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HELP TO BRING DOWN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES.
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT OVERALL...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TO A
CONSENSUS. THE EUROPEAN IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND
MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS...BUT AT LEAST THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND EACH
MODEL/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LESS SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A FAIRLY EVEN BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
TRACK WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL STILL BE ON THE FAIRLY LOW SIDE AND WITH A TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH BETTER THAN THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS STILL ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. IN THE
PHOENIX AREA...WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z. TYPICAL DRAINAGE
FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER. TYPICAL SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED IN SE CA AS
WELL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON MONDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL
KEEP FIRE DANGER VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN RECOVER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 251805 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1105 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...ACROSS THE LA VALLEYS AND COAST AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. WEAK MARINE INVERSION UP TO 3500 FT ACROSS THE LA BASIN
DETECTED BY ACARS AND LAX PROFILE...WHILE 1800 FT INVERSION NEAR PT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT RAPID CLOUD DISSIPATION WITH EXCEPTION OF
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY. WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS TODAY...BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS FOR TODAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE STRATUS ALONG THE VENTURA COAST AND THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER WHERE COASTAL CLOUDS LINGER
IN THE MORNING.
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS 36KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR SANDBERG LATE MONDAY.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A 100KT NORTHWEST JET STREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH MORE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND BETTER INSTABILITY...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AMOUNTS WITH SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD WARM THE AIR MASS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE SOUTH COAST BASIN FOR LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED FURTHER MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1800Z...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS...WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER EXPECTED
TO BRING SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE COAST AND
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT KSBA TO REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FORMING OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVERNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SITES
AND KPRB...ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND HEIGHT OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR KPRB.
S OF PT CONCEPTION...EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND
COVERAGE...BUT PUSHING FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE VENTURA COAST TO
KOXR. THE TIMING OF STRATUS CLOUDS ARRIVING AT THE AIRFIELDS MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS FOR TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 07Z.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THE TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN... AND THE TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251804
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:43 AM PDT SATURDAY...MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOST PREVALENT SAN MATEO
COAST...EAST BAY...MONTEREY THROUGH BOTH THE CARMEL AND SALINAS
VALLEYS. PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERHEAD AND A MODERATE 3-4 MB
N-S GRADIENT IS LIKE PREVENTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SEASONABLY
COOL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND 70S INLAND...WHICH IS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
UPPER LOWS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN POSSIBLY MORE STRATUS.
IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE
ONSET OF PRECIP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS
SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS
CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT
FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY
AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE LIFT PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH ENERGY. THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE
BOTTOM LINE WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY
LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM
THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:04 AM PDT SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. CIGS HAVE
RETREATED FROM SF BAY BUT LINGERING ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA.
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AT KSFO. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS INTRUSION LATE
TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS TO
RETURN AFTER 06Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...KSNS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SHORTLY.
CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT KMRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING BACK INLAND
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/LJ
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 251659
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 AM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
MOVE IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIS/IR SATELLITE REVEALS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND DRY...DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AZ DESERTS...SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INTO THE 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE KTWC SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DO SHOW A REPEATED SHALLOW
MOISTURE SEEP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER DUE TO A STRONGER NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO MAR THE SUNNY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR OUR AREA. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW A 20-30MB INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...AND WITH THE
DRY CONDITIONS...SUNSHINE AND MIXING POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON TEMPS
SHOULD HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK FOR SOME OF OUR
WARMER DESERT SITES. THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURE THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE DAYS OF THIS BLOCKING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PINWHEELS AROUND THE LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN FORECAST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING UNDER THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TODAY A BIT WITH
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A COUPLE MINOR
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HELP TO BRING DOWN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES.
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT OVERALL...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TO A
CONSENSUS. THE EUROPEAN IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND
MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS...BUT AT LEAST THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND EACH
MODEL/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LESS SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A FAIRLY EVEN BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
TRACK WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL STILL BE ON THE FAIRLY LOW SIDE AND WITH A TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH BETTER THAN THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS STILL ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL...ONCE AGAIN...KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH WESTERLY
BREEZES REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON MONDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL
KEEP FIRE DANGER VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN RECOVER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KSGX 251637
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
940 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE AND
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DEEP MARINE LAYER TO
PERSIST...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND AND THROUGH THIS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...RELATIVELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT AND THE SAN DIEGO TO THERMAL
GRADIENT BOTH AT 6.3 MBS...OR ROUGHLY 2 MBS STRONGER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MARINE LAYER IS ROUGHLY 200 FEET
LOWER IN HEIGHT THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS IT AROUND 3200 FEET DEEP. FOR THIS
REASON...SAW ANOTHER GOOD PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EVEN EXTENDING UP
INTO THE CAJON PASS. CURRENTLY...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED SAN DIEGO COUNTY...BUT HANGING ON STRONG
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF...SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND THINKING.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO
AROUND 5000 FEET. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...AS STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER PERSISTS. LOCALLY
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY TYPE STRENGTHS AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...
251500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 2500 FT
MSL AND TOPS 3500 FT MSL WILL ERODE TO THE COAST THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 25/1600Z-1800Z WITH SKIES BECOMING FEW/SCT. STRATUS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD 15-20 SM INLAND BETWEEN 26/0100Z-0300Z THIS EVENING.
BASES SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2500 FT
MSL. VIS WILL REMAIN ABV 5 SM...LOCALLY LOWER WHERE THE CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SFC WEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN
GORGONIO PASS.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY
MORNINGS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
000
FXUS66 KLOX 251635 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...ACROSS THE LA VALLEYS AND COAST AND WESTERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. WEAK MARINE INVERSION UP TO 3500 FT ACROSS THE LA BASIN
DETECTED BY ACARS AND LAX PROFILE...WHILE 1800 FT INVERSION NEAR PT
CONCEPTION. EXPECT RAPID CLOUD DISSIPATION WITH EXCEPTION OF
LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY. WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS TODAY...BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS FOR TODAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE STRATUS ALONG THE VENTURA COAST AND THE
CENTRAL COAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER WHERE COASTAL CLOUDS LINGER
IN THE MORNING.
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS 36KT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR SANDBERG LATE MONDAY.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A 100KT NORTHWEST JET STREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY MORNING.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH MORE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND BETTER INSTABILITY...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AMOUNTS WITH SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD WARM THE AIR MASS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE SOUTH COAST BASIN FOR LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED FURTHER MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1100Z.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS FILLING IN
NICELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LAX BASIN. OVERALL..EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KSBA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY WELL LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A RATHER SIMILAR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT PATTERN...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP A
BIT SOONER THAN THIS MORNING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT
CIGS MAY CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN
TONIGHT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 07Z
FORECAST.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN
TONIGHT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OR CURRENT 09Z
FORECAST.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 251610
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DEEPEN INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW WITH THE LOW DEEPENING MAY
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR THE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND
WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE NEAR 150W WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO
THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS
STARTING MONDAY MORNING TO THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
THE NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR WEST SLOPES WITH CHANCES DEVELOPING FOR THE SACRAMENTO
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND PLACES SOUTH IN
THE VALLEY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE REMAINING. NOT A LOT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE VALLEY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TRACE
TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD FAIR
A LITTLE BETTER WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY TAPERING OFF THE
SHOWERS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z
ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT THE 12Z
GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY DRY FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND WARMER BUT HOW MUCH WARMER
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WARMS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KEKA 251608
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
908 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...DECREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP IN DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS ARE INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM PDT SAT MAY 25/
SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER STORM
WILL BRING RAIN TO ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AND PARTS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, SINCE THE LOCAL RADAR
I BROKEN IT`S DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO START TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING ONLY FOR MORE TO
BUILD IN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY
NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RAISED POPS AND QPF SOME TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER AND THE REDWOOD COAST.
PERHAPS AROUND 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR IN THE SHOWERS NEAR THE CA/OR
BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY, DECREASING AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. MONDAY IS
THE WETTEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
STORM MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING,
LOCATION, AND QPF AMOUNTS SO BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT
THIS. A 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH IS POSSIBLY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO CLIMO AS WE HIT DAY 7.
AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED N OF CAPE MENDO AND
FARTHER INLAND OVER INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER...KCEC REMAINS CLEAR
AS OF 4 AM. IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS
CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK FROM
FARTHER OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE. /SEC
MARINE...TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROF AND HIGH PRESSURE SW OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE S OUTER MARINE LEG HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU NOON TODAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU SUN. S FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY ON MON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251545
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
845 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:43 AM PDT SATURDAY...MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOST PREVALENT SAN MATEO
COAST...EAST BAY...MONTEREY THROUGH BOTH THE CARMEL AND SALINAS
VALLEYS. PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERHEAD AND A MODERATE 3-4 MB
N-S GRADIENT IS LIKE PREVENTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SEASONABLY
COOL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND 70S INLAND...WHICH IS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
UPPER LOWS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN POSSIBLY MORE STRATUS.
IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM INDICATES LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW 12Z MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE
ONSET OF PRECIP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS
SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS
CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT
FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY
MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY
AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE LIFT PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH ENERGY. THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE
BOTTOM LINE WITH THE MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY
LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM
THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT AND THE SUOMI DAY NIGHT VIS IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. STRATUS IS ALSO
APPARENT IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY NEAR KOAK AND
SLIGHTLY EAST OF KSFO AND THE APPROACH. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY AT THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PASS OVER KSFO FROM TIME TO TIME
THIS MORNING WHILE PREVAILING AT KOAK THROUGH 1800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1700Z WITH FURTHER INCREASES TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KT BY 2200Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 1800Z AT KSNS. CIGS MAY STICK AROUND ALL DAY
AT KMRY TODAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO OVC020 BY 1700Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY IN EFFECT AT 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/LJ
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251141
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 AM PDT SATURDAY...
500 MB PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE CURRENT H20 VAPOR LOOP.
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIED INTO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN
ZERO POPS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXCEPT IN THE UP SLOPE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE WRUNG OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND PREVENT A WELL
DEFINED MARINE LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...A
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AREA WILL TAKE WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.
THE FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON MEMORIAL
DAY. THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL
BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES
SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE LIFT
PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THE
MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IR
FOG PRODUCT AND THE SUOMI DAY NIGHT VIS IMAGE SHOW STRATUS ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. STRATUS IS ALSO
APPARENT IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRATUS IN
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY NEAR KOAK AND
SLIGHTLY EAST OF KSFO AND THE APPROACH. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY AT THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PASS OVER KSFO FROM TIME TO TIME
THIS MORNING WHILE PREVAILING AT KOAK THROUGH 1800Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1700Z WITH FURTHER INCREASES TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 32 KT BY 2200Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 1800Z AT KSNS. CIGS MAY STICK AROUND ALL DAY
AT KMRY TODAY WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO OVC020 BY 1700Z. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 5 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 251133
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
433 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER STORM
WILL BRING RAIN TO ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AND PARTS OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, SINCE THE LOCAL RADAR
I BROKEN IT`S DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO START TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING ONLY FOR MORE TO
BUILD IN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY
NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RAISED POPS AND QPF SOME TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER AND THE REDWOOD COAST.
PERHAPS AROUND 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR IN THE SHOWERS NEAR THE CA/OR
BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY, DECREASING AS ONE HEADS SOUTH. MONDAY IS
THE WETTEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
STORM MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING,
LOCATION, AND QPF AMOUNTS SO BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT
THIS. A 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH IS POSSIBLY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO CLIMO AS WE HIT DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS HAS DEVELOPED N OF CAPE MENDO AND
FARTHER INLAND OVER INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER...KCEC REMAINS CLEAR
AS OF 4 AM. IMPROVEMENTS IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS
CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK FROM
FARTHER OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE
TROF AND HIGH PRESSURE SW OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE S OUTER MARINE LEG HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU NOON TODAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU SUN. S FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY ON MON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 251126
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
426 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW
IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTS AND VALLEY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM DIPS SOUTH. A COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY...THEN A WARMUP WILL BEGIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MEMORIAL DAY)...
A WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO HINDER
MARINE LAYER STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
SOUNDINGS FROM KLAX INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2000
FEET...AND THINNER NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
EXPANSIVE AND FILL IN OVER THE SOUTH COAST BASIN AND THE CENTRAL
COAST AS THE LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND PERMIT A COOLING TREND TO DEVELOP. A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DEVELOPED MARINE LAYER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT AND
MORNING DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK. A VEERING
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT EXISTS IN THE MIXED LAYER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING OVER THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL DEVELOP STRONG WINDS OVER THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THESE AREAS...BUT PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY. BLOWING DUST AND SAND WAS ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH MORE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND BETTER INSTABILITY...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AMOUNTS WITH SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD WARM THE AIR MASS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE SOUTH COAST BASIN FOR LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED FURTHER MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1100Z.
OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS FILLING IN
NICELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LAX BASIN. OVERALL..EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL COASTAL/VALLEY TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KSBA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY WELL LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WILL EXPECT A RATHER SIMILAR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT PATTERN...ALTHOUGH STRATUS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP A
BIT SOONER THAN THIS MORNING.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS
MAY CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN
TONIGHT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 07Z
FORECAST.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN
TONIGHT IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND COULD BE +/- 2 HOURS OR CURRENT 09Z
FORECAST.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 251040
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
340 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK INSTABILITY DEPICTED OVER
THE SHASTA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FRIDAYS READINGS.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 48N 133W FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY WILL BRING GREATER INSTABILITY AND
THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM ABOUT A KUKI-KBLU LINE...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. INCREASED SYNOPTIC COOLING SUNDAY WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS
IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE WITH 50S TO LOWER
70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 48N 158W IS FORECAST TO IMPACT INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE SUB-TROPICS. GFS IWV ANALYSIS SHOWING AR EXTENDING
INTO THE CWA MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UP AS NAEFS QPF SHOWING
AROUND 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM ROUGHLY I-80
NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THESE PERCENTAGES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
QPF ABOVE A TENTH WITH MAIN EMPHASIS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THUS SYSTEM LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF
EVENT. WITH MID LATITUDE STORM TRACK...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE 7000 TO 8000 FEET WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CONTINUED SYNOPTIC COOLING MONDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUDINESS RESULTING IN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY.
DECREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD REBOUND IN TEMPS
TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY KEEPING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN RIDGING INCREASES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
UPR TROF CONTS OVR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR A
CHC OF ISOLD -SHRA OMTNS N OF KRDD FM LTR THIS AFTN INTO SUN...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS CONT. SWLY WINDS 15-25 KTS THRU THE CARQ STRAIT
AND ACRS THE HYR ELEVS NRN SIERNEV.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KREV 251039
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
339 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN MOVE INLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
TODAY AND SUNDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. INCREASED WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY IN THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES ON MEMORIAL
DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SEND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE NWRN US TODAY AND SUNDAY. FOR TODAY, THE 06Z
GUIDANCE HAS GENERATED A SMALL AREA OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN LASSEN/NWRN WASHOE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS
LATEST DATA WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THIS AREA FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WHILE THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS MORE MARGINAL
WITH INSTABILITY. IF THE 12Z NAM/GFS SHOWS SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE 06Z DATA THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY TODAY WITH
WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, MORE LIKE A COMMON ZEPHYR
WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS INLAND AND BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR FAR NERN CA-NWRN NV. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER NORTH ON THE LATEST
SET OF GUIDANCE DATA, RESULTING IN MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. SINCE
THE MODEL DATA SEEMS TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE FAST
CHANGING ELEMENTS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE-
GERLACH, THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH 700 MB FLOW IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AT 20-25 KT, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSED THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST U.S. EARLIER TONIGHT CONTAINED SIMILAR 700 MB SPEEDS
BUT STILL PRODUCED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN. THE
DURATION OF THE INCREASED WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WHEN BOATING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BUSY.
BY MONDAY, UNUSUALLY STRONG PACIFIC JET APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SIERRA DURING THE
DAY AND INTO WESTERN NV BY EARLY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
INDICATED AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 0.6 TO 0.8
INCH IN FAR WESTERN NV, TO 1.25 INCH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST,
AND NEAR 1.75 INCH OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF LONGITUDE 130W. THIS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE MAY AND MODEL QPF
SEEMS TOO LOW ON THE NAM AND GFS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK
OF INSTABILITY BUT WITH THE POSITION OF THE JET STREAK BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD HELP IN GENERATING
LIGHT RAIN FARTHER EAST ACROSS NEVADA AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO NEAR 8000 FEET IN THE SIERRA
NEAR TAHOE, AND 8500-9000 FEET IN MONO COUNTY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PASSES INCLUDING
EBBETTS, SONORA, TIOGA AND THE MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A BROAD
WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PAC NW.
EACH ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH INTO
OREGON/FAR NRN CA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD SHOWN A
TENDENCY TO SPLIT THIS SHORT WAVE OFF AS A CLOSED LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY. NOW IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN
DIVES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NRN FORECAST AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT
NOT THE GEM. MEANWHILE A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL WANT TO
SHOW AN ATTEMPT TO SPLIT THE SHORT WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT
NOT VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH AND NOT VERY LONG LIVED.
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VERY LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND
TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SHOWING A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...WILL MAKE ONLY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL CALL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NORTH TUESDAY...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. BY LATE TUESDAY
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER...BUT WITH GENEROUS
CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED LOW LVL HEATING WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND
KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
DRYING AND A WEAK WARMING TREND. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP AND TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE. MODELS
OFTEN TIMES HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONS IN THE SPRING
AND THIS SITUATION APPEARS TO BE NO DIFFERENT. THUS CONFIDENCE THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. PATTERN COULD SHIFT FASTER AND
WARM MUCH MORE BY FRIDAY...OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD
LIFT ENE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASED WINDS OVER THE
SIERRA LATER TODAY. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE EAST OF THE SIERRA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIDGE STARTS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PCPN DEVELOPING SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. OVERALL VFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO LOVELOCK LINE. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS66 KSGX 251030
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN NEAR 3000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN FRIDAY...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN
THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY AND NEAR THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER FOR SUNDAY...THEN A LITTLE STRONGER MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE
GREATER COVERAGE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. WHILE STILL
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...IT IS MUCH CLOSER IN
AMPLITUDE TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. ALSO WITH THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
AMPLITUDE...500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ONLY
FALL TO AROUND 570 DM...USUALLY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE
TO OCCUR AT ALL...WOULD BE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE MARINE LAYER. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FOR
ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SOME
MINOR ADDITIONAL COOLING. MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...
251030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL HAVE BASES AROUND
2000-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL...WITH CLEARING BETWEEN 16Z
AND 18Z. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST 00-02Z THIS EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. SLOWER CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUSTY SFC WEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY
MORNINGS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
000
FXUS66 KHNX 251020
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA TOWARD
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA. A WESTERLY JET MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
PRODUCED LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR CACHE CREEK...BUT THESE HAVE
BEEN CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND DO NOT PLAN ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.
AT 09Z /0200 PDT/ THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE RUNNING MOSTLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY...LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST IN 500-MB HEIGHTS FROM 00Z SATURDAY /1700 PDT FRIDAY/ TO
00Z SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
DAYLIGHT PERIOD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT THAT AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS THERE WILL BE BETTER SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN
DESERT WINDS.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE GFS HAVING A DRY
SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER MODEL. BOTH MODELS BRING THE
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS
MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT
TOWARD THE ECMWF. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 8500-9000 FEET.
RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KINGS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF TULARE
COUNTY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...LINGERING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
ARE FORECAST TO BE 1-2 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 70S MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KFAT 05-27 104:1974 55:1971 69:1896 46:1998
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
KBFL 05-27 106:1974 66:1971 75:1974 42:1917
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 251020
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN NEAR 3000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WEST
WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN FRIDAY...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN
THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY AND NEAR THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS A LITTLE
STRONGER FOR SUNDAY...THEN A LITTLE STRONGER MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE
GREATER COVERAGE OF ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. WHILE STILL
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...IT IS MUCH CLOSER IN
AMPLITUDE TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. ALSO WITH THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
AMPLITUDE...500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ONLY
FALL TO AROUND 570 DM...USUALLY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE
TO OCCUR AT ALL...WOULD BE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE MARINE LAYER. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FOR
ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SOME
MINOR ADDITIONAL COOLING. MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...
250300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST
AND AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY MID SAT MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND
2000 FT MSL...WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 16 UTC SAT MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST 01-03 UTC SAT EVENING WITH SIMILAR TOPS AND BASES.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES. ALWAYS SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
000
FXUS66 KMTR 251008
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
308 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
...COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 AM PDT SATURDAY...
500 MB PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE CURRENT H20 VAPOR LOOP.
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE TIED INTO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN
ZERO POPS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXCEPT IN THE UP SLOPE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE WRUNG OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED AND PREVENT A WELL
DEFINED MARINE LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...A
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AREA WILL TAKE WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.
THE FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES ON MEMORIAL
DAY. THE GENERAL TREND HAS CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIP. OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS SOLUTIONS...THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BRING IT FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TIMING IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVEN THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE ONSET FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. SO ITS LIKELY THAT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MORNING WILL
BE PRIMARILY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. PERCIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS 1-1.25 INCHES
SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE LIFT
PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY.
THE MODELS DO SHOW WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT EVEN SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE AMOUNTS WHICH WILL NOT BE GREAT. SO THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THE
MONDAY FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
BEING MORE FOCUSED ON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION THE THE NORTH BAY LOOKS IN LINE FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FROM THE BAY SOUTHWARD.
AFTER THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS LEAVES OUR AREA
IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL REFLECT A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOW MID WEEK
WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HOTTER WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS HOLDING SO FAR BUT LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED. VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 5 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: JOHNSON
AVIATION/MARINE: SMITH
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 250950
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD
MOVE IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE DAYS OF THIS BLOCKING WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PINWHEELS AROUND THE LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN FORECAST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING UNDER THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TODAY A BIT WITH
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A COUPLE MINOR
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HELP TO BRING DOWN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES.
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT OVERALL...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TO A
CONSENSUS. THE EUROPEAN IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND
MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS...BUT AT LEAST THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND EACH
MODEL/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LESS SPREAD THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A FAIRLY EVEN BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
TRACK WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN COOLER AIR...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL STILL BE ON THE FAIRLY LOW SIDE AND WITH A TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS
MUCH BETTER THAN THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS STILL ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL...ONCE AGAIN...KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH WESTERLY
BREEZES REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON MONDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL
KEEP FIRE DANGER VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN RECOVER TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME HUMIDITIES...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250551
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...CONTINUED COOL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS INCREASING...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY INLAND...THROUGH THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN
FACT...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE OCEAN...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SKY GRIDS WERE
UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WE MAY SEE SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP ON NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS IN GENERAL. BUT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD FOG NEAR SEA
LEVEL THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. AND COOL
ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANCE WE WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE LAYER. EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COOL ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY
AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND THOUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE UPPER TROUGH NEARLY AS
FAR TO THE SOUTH...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND MOSTLY WASHES OUT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO IT REACHING OUR CWA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS FORECASTS ALMOST NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM OFFERS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
00Z NAM`S QPF IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE 18Z NAM. THUS...THE NAM IS
TRENDING DRIER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z ECMWF
IS IN BEFORE MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT EVEN THE
WETTEST MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN SANTA
CRUZ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND MAINTAINS COOL WEATHER RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS HOLDING SO FAR BUT LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED. VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 250548 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1048 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THERE WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY... THEN A WARMUP WILL START MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GOING
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKS END.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER.
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT
THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK. WHILE THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES...THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT THE INVERSION
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORM AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST BRINGING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SBA SOUTH
COAST BY MORNING. ALSO...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLID ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MARINE LAYER
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG SPREAD INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIELS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY TURN MOSTLY SUNNY...HOWEVER
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS SOME IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH VALLEYS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
BY SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE DEEPER INLAND PUSH THANKS TO STRONGER
ONSHORE GRADIENTS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BETTER...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. THE WIND ITSELF WILL
FLIRT WITH ADVISORIES OVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
BY MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...SRN SBA
COUNTY...CENTRAL COAST...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER...AND BRING A LITTLE WARMING
TO COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER WILL BE
COOLER...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BEING VERY UNSEASONABLE FOR ALMOST JUNE...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DIGS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT UP IN
NEVADA. WHILE THIS DIFFERENCE ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT COULD RESULT FROM THIS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW STAYING
NORTHWESTERLY...THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...THE TIMING OF ANY RAIN WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT BEING SO UNSEASONABLE...THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE
TWEAKED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 0.1-0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH 0.01-0.10 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
IF THE GFS PANS OUT...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WOULD SEE 0.01-0.10
INCHES...WHILE OTHER AREAS WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. SO AT THE END OF THE DAY...IT ISNT A LOT OF RAIN...BUT
QUITE SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO NO SURPRISE ON TUESDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD TAKE A HIT HOWEVER...AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATUS FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS A RESULT...EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS WE SHOULD
FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED NORMALS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GUSTY BUT
JUST SUB-ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST...AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...25/0545Z...
OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. THE MARINE INVERSION IS DEEP...BUT WEAK...SO STRATUS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC OVERNIGHT. DID BRING MVFR CIGS UP TO
KOXR OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/AREAL COVERAGE IS LOW. ANY
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN MAY BE
+/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 11Z FORECAST...WITH A 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL.
KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN MAY BE
+/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 12Z FORECAST. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 250459
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING MONDAY WITH SOME MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOSTLY DRY AREA ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LINGERING EVENING BREEZINESS. PAC NW LOW HAS
EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXPANDING
DOWN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PERSISTENCE WILL REIGN OVER THE
FORECAST...WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND MILD LATE MAY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED
TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO TREND THE GRIDS
CLOSER TO EVENING OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 150 PM MST/PDT/...
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST NONE THAT WILL CHANGE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER VERY MUCH. A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES/VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND INTO THE PAC NW...KEEPING PERSISTENT SWLY
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE OVER THIS TIME AND
AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 SATURDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY. PROGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS MID
LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT.
PROGS AGREE THAT A LARGE AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE PAC NW COAST...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO
OUR REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC
WITH THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN LIKELY ON THE OVERLY STRONG AND WET
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE GEM ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENDING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
EACH OTHER IN SPEED AND STRENGTH WITH MORE SPREAD SEEN WITHIN THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT
FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A MODEST COOLDOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING
CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
OVERALL FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR AND VERY LOW POPS EXPECTED BY CLIMO. HAVE ELECTED TO MOSTLY
IGNORE THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN QPF FORECAST FOR THE REGION GIVEN
IT/S OVERLY STRONG SOLUTION...BUT HAVE AT LEAST INCLUDED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER EUROPEAN...HIGHER POPS
WILL BE NEEDED.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ELEVATED EVENING BREEZINESS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WINDS FOR THE
PHX TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO VRB BEFORE PICKING UP
TYPICAL EASTERLY DRAINAGES WHILE KIPL AND KBLH WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE AREA OF ALMOST STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO A MORE NOTICEABLE TROUGHING PATTERN
BY MONDAY. A SERIES OF DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST FLOW...PERSISTING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WINDS WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A MILD COOLING TREND. WITH
CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS LOOK TO BE THEIR STRONGEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME REMAINING BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HUMIDITIES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE MOST PROMISING
WEATHER SYSTEM ATTM. OVERALL...CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST FIRE
DISTRICTS WILL REMAIN DRY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
000
FXUS66 KSGX 250444
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
945 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO
THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WHEN A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH DRY...WARMER WEATHER NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN AVERAGE...PRODUCE NIGHT AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS THAT WILL BURN OFF EACH AFTERNOON...AND
CREATE A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH DAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. FOR LATE MAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH THE JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE JET DIGS AND THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM EACH
OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TUESDAY...BRIEFLY
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS COLD UPPER
LOW PRODUCES 500 MB HT ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE
REGION. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IN SOCAL TUESDAY WHERE A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE COULD FALL IN THE COASTS/VALLEYS AND UPWARDS OF AN INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE JET STREAM AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
MORE OF A DEEP MARINE LAYER/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EVENT. IN EITHER
CASE...TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. I HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
WETTER ECMWF SOLUTIONS GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS
IN LONG RANGE FORECASTING.
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER DAYS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...
250300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST
AND AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY MID SAT MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND
2000 FT MSL...WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 FT MSL. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 16 UTC SAT MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST 01-03 UTC SAT EVENING WITH SIMILAR TOPS AND BASES.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
LATE EVENINGS AND THE LOWEST LOW TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES. ALWAYS SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS66 KSTO 250439
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
939 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WASHINGTON THIS EVENING JUST LIKE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS IS KEEPING A DRY...BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NORCAL. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER AREAS NORTH OF RED BLUFF. TEMPERATURES AT
9 PM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60`S AND LOW 70`S AT VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WARMEST TO THE NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50`S
LOOK ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER WRN NOAM WILL DOMINATE NORCAL WX
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IN WHAT COULD END-UP BEING "MEMORABLE"
IF THE MODELS AND FORECAST WX (ESPECIALLY QPF) VERIFY FOR OUR CWA.
MILD WSWLY FLOW S OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE
INTO NORCAL ON SAT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FAR N
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA.
BUT THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE. THAT MAY CHANGE
SAT/SUN AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS WITH THE FORECAST OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SAT...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS FORECAST ON SUN AND WE HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS WITH AN INCLUSION OF POSSIBLE THUNDER ERN SHASTA/WRN PLUMAS
COUNTIES INCLUDING LASSEN PARK AREA. SYNOPTIC COOLING WILL ALSO
LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SUN.
MON MAY TURN OUT TO CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST MEMORIAL DAYS IN DTS
(DOWNTOWN SAC) IF THE MODELS VERIFY. ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF AK IS
FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE BLOCKING LOW...WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
SEWD MON/TUE OVER CA/NV. GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ON MON/MON NITE...WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE. ANY QPF .08 INCH
OR MORE WOULD CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST MEMORIAL DAYS FOR DTS...AND
OUR LATEST QPF GRIDS SHOW A LITTLE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE MON PERIOD.
THE SREF PLUME AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECASTING SOME COOL MAXES FOR
MON AS WELL...AGAIN POSSIBLY CRACKING SOME OF THE TOP 5 COOLEST
MEMORIAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST PLUME SPREADS HAVE BECOME
LESS CLUSTERED AROUND THE MEAN...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
A RECORD "COOL HIGH" WOULD OCCUR ON THAT DAY. IN ADDITION...THE
NAEFS TABLE SHOWS THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF THE STANDARD PRESSURE
CHARTS OCCURRING IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES
RETURNING SUN/MON. STILL...MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ABOUT
10 TO 16 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON MON. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY TAPERING OFF THE
SHOWERS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z
ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT THE 12Z
GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY DRY FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND WARMER BUT HOW MUCH WARMER
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WARMS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KHNX 250434
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
934 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...POPS LOWERED FOR MEMORIAL DAY EXCEPT IN THE SIERRA
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. MAX TEMPS LOWERED SLIGHTLY ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY. WEATHER GRID AMENDED FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING 3 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER
THROUGHOUT THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHICH WILL PUT MIN TEMP
FORECASTS ON TARGET FOR TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN
THE SJ VLY AS OCEAN-COOLED AIR FLOWS STEADILY THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.
ALREADY THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT IN THE NORTHERN SJ
VLY FROM MODESTO NORTHWARD...AND IT WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE A
NOTICEABLE REINFORCEMENT OF MARINE AIR IS FELT IN MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE SJ VLY THIS EVENING.
IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE TUESDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW WILL SIT NEARLY IDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS FORECAST THIS STORM TO SLOWLY DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN EACH OF
THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ECM AND GFS FORECAST A 300 MB JET MAX
(85 KTS) TO COME ACROSS KERN COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT POTENTIALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE WINDIER IN THESE AREAS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH DIGGING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOES ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE
GETS. THE ECM IS SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS
AND CARRIES A VERY WET BIAS. INITIALLY...MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW WHEN IT ARRIVES ON MEMORIAL DAY SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH AT MOST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS TIME ABOVE 8000 FEET. OTHERWISE...
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.
ALTHOUGH A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATER PART
OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL BY NEXT
FRIDAY AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL
CA. THIS IS THE KIND OF PATTERN THAT WILL BRING SHALLOW INTRUSIONS
OF MARINE AIR INTO THE SJ VLY AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 312 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...COOL DRY CONDITIONS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE US AS LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PAC NW. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOW
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING THE TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE ECM IS DEEPER AND FURTHER S WITH THE LOW CENTER
AS IT DIVES SOUTH TOWARDS SCAL. THE ECM IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
WETTER THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ATM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF EC AND GFS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AT THE MOMENT WILL BE TAKING A BLEND OF THE
TWO ENSEMBLE MEANS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM S OF THE ALEUTIANS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
PWS OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 10KFT DROP TO -2C BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL TO NEAR 8KFT WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREA.
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK AND KEEP US IN A STRONG NW
FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN CHECK AS COOL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KBFL 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...BINGHAM
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250422
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
922 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...CONTINUED COOL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS INCREASING...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:20 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY INLAND...THROUGH THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN
FACT...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE OCEAN...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SKY GRIDS WERE
UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WE MAY SEE SOME LOCAL
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP ON NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS IN GENERAL. BUT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD FOG NEAR SEA
LEVEL THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. AND COOL
ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANCE WE WILL SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE LAYER. EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COOL ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE SF BAY
AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND THOUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE UPPER TROUGH NEARLY AS
FAR TO THE SOUTH...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND MOSTLY WASHES OUT
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO IT REACHING OUR CWA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS FORECASTS ALMOST NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM OFFERS A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
00Z NAM`S QPF IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE 18Z NAM. THUS...THE NAM IS
TRENDING DRIER SIMILAR TO THE GFS. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z ECMWF
IS IN BEFORE MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT EVEN THE
WETTEST MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN NO FARTHER SOUTH THAN SANTA
CRUZ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
WEST COAST AND MAINTAINS COOL WEATHER RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WARMING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING AT MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 250330
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THERE WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY... THEN A WARMUP WILL START MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GOING
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKS END.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER.
LATEST ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT
THE INVERSION IS QUITE WEAK. WHILE THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES...THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT THE INVERSION
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORM AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST BRINGING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SBA SOUTH
COAST BY MORNING. ALSO...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE
SOLID ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MARINE LAYER
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG SPREAD INTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIELS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY TURN MOSTLY SUNNY...HOWEVER
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS SOME IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS. CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH VALLEYS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
BY SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE DEEPER INLAND PUSH THANKS TO STRONGER
ONSHORE GRADIENTS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BETTER...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. THE WIND ITSELF WILL
FLIRT WITH ADVISORIES OVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
BY MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...SRN SBA
COUNTY...CENTRAL COAST...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER...AND BRING A LITTLE WARMING
TO COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER WILL BE
COOLER...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BEING VERY UNSEASONABLE FOR ALMOST JUNE...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DIGS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT UP IN
NEVADA. WHILE THIS DIFFERENCE ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT COULD RESULT FROM THIS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW STAYING
NORTHWESTERLY...THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...THE TIMING OF ANY RAIN WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT BEING SO UNSEASONABLE...THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE
TWEAKED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 0.1-0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH 0.01-0.10 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
IF THE GFS PANS OUT...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WOULD SEE 0.01-0.10
INCHES...WHILE OTHER AREAS WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. SO AT THE END OF THE DAY...IT ISNT A LOT OF RAIN...BUT
QUITE SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO NO SURPRISE ON TUESDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD TAKE A HIT HOWEVER...AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATUS FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS A RESULT...EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS WE SHOULD
FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED NORMALS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GUSTY BUT
JUST SUB-ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST...AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...24/2340Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH BETWEEN 3000 AND
3500 FEET ACROSS LA BASIN...BUT INVERSION IS RATHER WEAK. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW STILL FAIRLY STRONG AND INVERSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
OVERNIGHT...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY SOLID COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT COASTAL/VALLEY AIRFIELDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...+/- 2 HOURS FROM PROJECTED 08Z
TIME FRAME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED WITH EDDY CIRCULATION BUT
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/KITTELL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 250119
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
619 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT FRIDAY...COOL WEATHER AHEAD WITH A
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY PENINSULA...BUT
OTHERWISE PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR TRENDS ALSO REVEAL THAT
MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE CA COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP
ON MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS DEVELOPS RAIN OVER THE N BAY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT...UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE N BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH A
AN INCH SOUTHWARD. NONE THE LESS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY WANT TO THINKING ABOUT PACKING RAIN GEAR FOR
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
UN-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 10 BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. VFR
IS FORECAST FOR THE BAY AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING AT MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY IFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE VFR.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FORECAST THIS EVENING. IFR
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 242350 CCA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
449 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
..DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEST COAST WEATHER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TO NOT REQUIRE ANY FROST ADVISORIES. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME ENHANCED UPLIFT AND CLOUD COVER
TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A TRACE TO 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN FOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN UPSLOPING LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM NOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL REACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WEST COAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COASTS BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLIER. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
THEN EXPAND OVER THE CWA AS ZONAL ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AIM AT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY MAY SEE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE 60S FOR
UKIAH.
ONSHORE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MID WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS INDICATING CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT WITH CLIMO POPS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST. RPA
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND
KACV AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEREFORE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE
PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV ON SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE WATERS.
SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE NEAR SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 242348
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAY GRAY IS THE STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE MOST PART...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER. STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED OUT...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER OREGON SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...HEIGHTS LOOK TO INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.
WITH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...THE EDDY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SOME AS WELL. ALONG WITH
STRATUS CURRENTLY PARKED SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS BECOME MORE SOLID IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVEN IF THE MARINE LAYER ITSELF SHRINKS SOME. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OVER LA
AND VTU COUNTIES. AFTERNOON GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER STRONG...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS NEAR A FEW BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DECENT CLEARING IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TOUCH COOLER
OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER.
BY SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE DEEPER INLAND PUSH THANKS TO STRONGER
ONSHORE GRADIENTS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BETTER...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. THE WIND ITSELF WILL
FLIRT WITH ADVISORIES OVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
BY MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...SRN SBA
COUNTY...CENTRAL COAST...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER...AND BRING A LITTLE WARMING
TO COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER WILL BE
COOLER...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BEING VERY UNSEASONABLE FOR ALMOST JUNE...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DIGS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT UP IN
NEVADA. WHILE THIS DIFFERENCE ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT COULD RESULT FROM THIS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW STAYING
NORTHWESTERLY...THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...THE TIMING OF ANY RAIN WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT BEING SO UNSEASONABLE...THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE
TWEAKED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 0.1-0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH 0.01-0.10 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
IF THE GFS PANS OUT...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WOULD SEE 0.01-0.10
INCHES...WHILE OTHER AREAS WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. SO AT THE END OF THE DAY...IT ISNT A LOT OF RAIN...BUT
QUITE SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO NO SURPRISE ON TUESDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD TAKE A HIT HOWEVER...AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATUS FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS A RESULT...EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS WE SHOULD
FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED NORMALS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GUSTY BUT
JUST SUB-ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST...AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...24/2340Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ACARS DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH BETWEEN 3000 AND
3500 FEET ACROSS LA BASIN...BUT INVERSION IS RATHER WEAK. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW STILL FAIRLY STRONG AND INVERSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
OVERNIGHT...LOOKING FOR FAIRLY SOLID COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT COASTAL/VALLEY AIRFIELDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...+/- 2 HOURS FROM PROJECTED 08Z
TIME FRAME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED WITH EDDY CIRCULATION BUT
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 242256
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
..DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEST COAST WEATHER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TO NOT REQUIRE ANY FROST ADVISORIES. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME ENHANCED UPLIFT AND CLOUD COVER
TO AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A TRACE TO 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN FOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN UPSLOPING LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM NOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL REACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WEST COAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN BEGINNING ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COASTS BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLIER. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
THEN EXPAND OVER THE CWA AS ZONAL ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AIM AT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY MAY SEE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE 60S FOR
UKIAH.
ONSHORE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MID WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS INDICATING CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT WITH CLIMO POPS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST. RPA
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND
KACV AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEREFORE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE
PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV ON SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE WATERS.
SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE NEAR SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 242233
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
333 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER WRN NOAM WILL DOMINATE NORCAL WX
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IN WHAT COULD END-UP BEING "MEMORABLE"
IF THE MODELS AND FORECAST WX (ESPECIALLY QPF) VERIFY FOR OUR CWA.
MILD WSWLY FLOW S OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE
INTO NORCAL ON SAT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FAR N
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA.
BUT THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE. THAT MAY CHANGE
SAT/SUN AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS WITH THE FORECAST OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE
OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SAT...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS FORECAST ON SUN AND WE HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
POPS WITH AN INCLUSION OF POSSIBLE THUNDER ERN SHASTA/WRN PLUMAS
COUNTIES INCLUDING LASSEN PARK AREA. SYNOPTIC COOLING WILL ALSO
LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SUN.
MON MAY TURN OUT TO CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST MEMORIAL DAYS IN DTS
(DOWNTOWN SAC) IF THE MODELS VERIFY. ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF AK IS
FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE BLOCKING LOW...WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
SEWD MON/TUE OVER CA/NV. GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ON MON/MON NITE...WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUE. ANY QPF .08 INCH
OR MORE WOULD CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST MEMORIAL DAYS FOR DTS...AND
OUR LATEST QPF GRIDS SHOW A LITTLE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE MON PERIOD.
THE SREF PLUME AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECASTING SOME COOL MAXES FOR
MON AS WELL...AGAIN POSSIBLY CRACKING SOME OF THE TOP 5 COOLEST
MEMORIAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST PLUME SPREADS HAVE BECOME
LESS CLUSTERED AROUND THE MEAN...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
A RECORD "COOL HIGH" WOULD OCCUR ON THAT DAY. IN ADDITION...THE
NAEFS TABLE SHOWS THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF THE STANDARD PRESSURE
CHARTS OCCURRING IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES
RETURNING SUN/MON. STILL...MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ABOUT
10 TO 16 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON MON. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY TAPERING OFF THE
SHOWERS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z
ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT THE 12Z
GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY DRY FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND WARMER BUT HOW MUCH WARMER
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WARMS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KHNX 242212
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
312 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN AREAS ON MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...COOL DRY CONDITIONS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE US AS LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PAC NW. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOW
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING THE TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW INTO
CENTRAL CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY INCREASING ONSHORE GRADS ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE ECM IS DEEPER AND FURTHER S WITH THE LOW CENTER
AS IT DIVES SOUTH TOWARDS SCAL. THE ECM IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
WETTER THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ATM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF EC AND GFS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AT THE MOMENT WILL BE TAKING A BLEND OF THE
TWO ENSEMBLE MEANS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM S OF THE ALEUTIANS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
PWS OF 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 10KFT DROP TO -2C BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL TO NEAR 8KFT WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREA.
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK AND KEEP US IN A STRONG NW
FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN CHECK AS COOL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KBFL 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 242151
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:47 PM PDT FRIDAY...COOL WEATHER AHEAD WITH A
CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY PENINSULA...BUT
OTHERWISE PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR TRENDS ALSO REVEAL THAT
MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST.
SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
PERSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE CA COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP
ON MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS DEVELOPS RAIN OVER THE N BAY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT...UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE N BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH A
AN INCH SOUTHWARD. NONE THE LESS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY WANT TO THINKING ABOUT PACKING RAIN GEAR FOR
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
UN-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY MONDAY SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 10 BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS FOR THE UP COMING WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS THE REGION. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO STRATUS WAS ONLY ADDED
TO THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO STRATUS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 242132
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING MONDAY WITH SOME MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PAC NW COAST. ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS. H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...NEAR 580DM ACROSS
SRN AZ...AND AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMEST DESERTS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST NONE THAT WILL CHANGE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER VERY MUCH. A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES/VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND INTO THE PAC NW...KEEPING PERSISTENT SWLY
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE OVER THIS TIME AND
AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 SATURDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY. PROGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS MID
LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT.
PROGS AGREE THAT A LARGE AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE PAC NW COAST...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO
OUR REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC
WITH THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN LIKELY ON THE OVERLY STRONG AND WET
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE GEM ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENDING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
EACH OTHER IN SPEED AND STRENGTH WITH MORE SPREAD SEEN WITHIN THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT
FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A MODEST COOLDOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING
CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
OVERALL FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR AND VERY LOW POPS EXPECTED BY CLIMO. HAVE ELECTED TO MOSTLY
IGNORE THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN QPF FORECAST FOR THE REGION GIVEN
IT/S OVERLY STRONG SOLUTION...BUT HAVE AT LEAST INCLUDED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER EUROPEAN...HIGHER POPS
WILL BE NEEDED.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. KIPL AND KBLH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO SWSTRLY HEADINGS CLOSER TO SUNSET WHILE
THE PHX TERMINALS CAN EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES. SUSTAINED
WINDS EXPECT GENLY 15 KTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE AREA OF ALMOST STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO A MORE NOTICEABLE TROUGHING PATTERN
BY MONDAY. A SERIES OF DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST FLOW...PERSISTING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WINDS WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A MILD COOLING TREND. WITH
CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS LOOK TO BE THEIR STRONGEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME REMAINING BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HUMIDITIES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE MOST PROMISING
WEATHER SYSTEM ATTM. OVERALL...CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST FIRE
DISTRICTS WILL REMAIN DRY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
000
FXUS65 KREV 242131
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN MOVE INLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE
SIERRA INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MEMORIAL DAY AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. THE PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS, WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS
A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH
A 15-20 DEGREE SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TAHOE BASIN
AND CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY
TAHOE, PYRAMID, LAHONTAN, TOPAZ AND CROWLEY, WILL WANT TO BE VERY
CAUTIOUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES: ONLY THE NAM IS HINTING AT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY,
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY, WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE BRINGS A BOOST OF INSTABILITY TO AREAS NORTH OF PORTOLA-
PYRAMID LAKE. THE NAM ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WITH
VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE
GROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY WITH BETTER MIXING.
NEVADA VALLEY HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS REACH
80 IN MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE
SIERRA WILL REACH THE 60S THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WHERE LOWS WILL
DIP INTO 20S. BRONG
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ON MONDAY A STRONG EAST PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A STRONGER TROUGH
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
IN THE SIERRA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO
MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AFTER THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AFFECT HOLIDAY TRAVEL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT ON THE HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES. AT THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE DONNER PASS.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND ADD LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO
DROP TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN AS THE ECMWF ALLOWS
THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND CLOSES OFF A SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL NEVADA. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AS THERE IS
LIMITED ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF FOR THIS
SOLUTION.
WEDNESDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN SIERRA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TO A FEW BELOW NORMAL WITH CLEARING SKIES. TOLBY
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KTS THROUGH 04Z. AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS NEARING 30KTS. GUSTS COULD BE
A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS A WAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PORTOLA-PYRAMID LAKE, THOUGH CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT VFR. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS66 KLOX 242112
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAY GRAY IS THE STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BUT WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE MOST PART...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER. STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED OUT...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER OREGON SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...HEIGHTS LOOK TO INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.
WITH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST...THE EDDY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SOME AS WELL. ALONG WITH
STRATUS CURRENTLY PARKED SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND...THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS BECOME MORE SOLID IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVEN IF THE MARINE LAYER ITSELF SHRINKS SOME. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OVER LA
AND VTU COUNTIES. AFTERNOON GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER STRONG...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS NEAR A FEW BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DECENT CLEARING IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TOUCH COOLER
OVER COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED MARINE LAYER.
BY SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE DEEPER INLAND PUSH THANKS TO STRONGER
ONSHORE GRADIENTS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT BETTER...WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. THE WIND ITSELF WILL
FLIRT WITH ADVISORIES OVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
BY MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...SRN SBA
COUNTY...CENTRAL COAST...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER...AND BRING A LITTLE WARMING
TO COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS HOWEVER WILL BE
COOLER...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH TO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR AREA.
BEING VERY UNSEASONABLE FOR ALMOST JUNE...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DIGS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH
ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT UP IN
NEVADA. WHILE THIS DIFFERENCE ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT COULD RESULT FROM THIS...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH THE FLOW STAYING
NORTHWESTERLY...THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT...THE TIMING OF ANY RAIN WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT BEING SO UNSEASONABLE...THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE
TWEAKED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 0.1-0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH 0.01-0.10 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
IF THE GFS PANS OUT...NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WOULD SEE 0.01-0.10
INCHES...WHILE OTHER AREAS WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE. SO AT THE END OF THE DAY...IT ISNT A LOT OF RAIN...BUT
QUITE SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO NO SURPRISE ON TUESDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD TAKE A HIT HOWEVER...AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATUS FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS A RESULT...EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS WE SHOULD
FINALLY REACH OR EXCEED NORMALS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GUSTY BUT
JUST SUB-ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST...AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST. UPPER
LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER
25/20Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWEST AFTER 25/08Z. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z. MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/02Z AND
AFTER 25/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS
VARIED FROM 4.2KFT OVER THE BASIN TO 1KFT OR LESS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TO MINUS 1.5KFT OVER THE BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.
KLAX...CIGS 035 BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 24/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 013
BETWEEN 25/08-25/17Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 022 BETWEEN 25/17-25/20Z.
KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 020 AFTER 25/09Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 242050
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING MONDAY WITH SOME MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PAC NW COAST. ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS. H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...NEAR 580DM ACROSS
SRN AZ...AND AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WARMEST DESERTS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER
PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST NONE THAT WILL CHANGE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER VERY MUCH. A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES/VORT MAXES ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND INTO THE PAC NW...KEEPING PERSISTENT SWLY
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE OVER THIS TIME AND
AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 SATURDAY
INTO NEXT MONDAY. PROGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS MID
LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT.
PROGS AGREE THAT A LARGE AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE PAC NW COAST...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO
OUR REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC
WITH THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN LIKELY ON THE OVERLY STRONG AND WET
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE GEM ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENDING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
EACH OTHER IN SPEED AND STRENGTH WITH MORE SPREAD SEEN WITHIN THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT
FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A MODEST COOLDOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING
CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
OVERALL FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR AND VERY LOW POPS EXPECTED BY CLIMO. HAVE ELECTED TO MOSTLY
IGNORE THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN QPF FORECAST FOR THE REGION GIVEN
IT/S OVERLY STRONG SOLUTION...BUT HAVE AT LEAST INCLUDED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER EUROPEAN...HIGHER POPS
WILL BE NEEDED.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH WESTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
LOW CENTER WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOW TEENS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KSGX 242027
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS.
ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. DRY AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER ORANGE COUNTY AS A COASTAL EDDY PERSISTS. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH +5.1 MB SAN-TPH.
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE LARGE-SCALE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DEEP WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS. THE COASTAL EDDY WILL LIKELY PERSIST BUT COULD
WEAKEN AT TIMES. SMALL DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH ARE EXPECTED AS MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH...FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY TUE MORNING.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE FOR ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH
NEAR THE COAST AND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500 FT...SO ONLY THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE MTNS COULD SEE MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND STRONG WEST
WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS...WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH
OR MORE POSSIBLE.
DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER FOR WED THROUGH FRI IN NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF FEW-SCT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 4000
FT MSL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VIS WILL REMAIN P6SM. STRATUS
RETURNING TONIGHT BETWEEN 25/0100-0400Z. A HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND
A WEAKER COASTAL EDDIE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LOWER CLOUD TONIGHT.
BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 3500 FT MSL. VIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV 5SM. STRATUS WILL ERODE BACK TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 25/1500-1700Z.
MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
000
FXUS66 KHNX 241806
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN AREAS ON MEMORIAL
DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE US ATTM AS CLOSED LOW
CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAC NW. MODELS ARE
KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. SOME CHANGES HAVE TAKEN PLACE WITH THE GFS AND THE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY.
WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECM IS
TRYING TO CLOSE THE LOW CENTER AS IT DIVES SOUTH OVER US. THE ECM
IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY AND TUES. WE
ARE TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE MORE
ROBUST ECM.
THE CNRFC AND HPC QPF VALUES ARE UP AND WE HAVE LOADED THEM AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK
AND KEEP US IN A STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS IN CHECK AS COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT REGIONS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH...NEAR AND BELOW THE KERN CO MOUNTAIN PASSES. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR THE PACHECO PASS AND TOWARDS
LOS BANOS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KBFL 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KLOX 241737
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1036 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MAY GRAY IS THE STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT WITH DECENT
AFTERNOON CLEARING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARMING ABOVE 1000 FEET...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARM UP IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.
COASTAL SECTIONS AND VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A STILL DEEP MARINE LAYER...OUR
CURRENT FORECASTED WARMING TREND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND SENT OUT JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY/WX SCENARIO. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT HOW AND WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL DEPTHS...AND WHAT RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA. STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING MAY GRAY
TIDINGS TRUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SOCK IN THE BEACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MAY PERMIT A LITTLE MORE CLEARING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ENFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MONDAY.
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A
MODERATE SUNDOWNER AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WIND EVENT COULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE STILL
EARLY...AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND EVENT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...AND THROUGH INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL MAY
PERMIT FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH THE SOLEDAD CANYON FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS PASO ROBLES AND THE
CARRIZO PLAIN.
.LONG TERM (MEMORIAL DAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON MEMORIAL DAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER INTO
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS AND INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VERY LITTLE
CLEARING...IF ANY...WILL OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CLEAR AS A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE AND STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE NORTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH MIXING RATIO NEAR 8 G/KG WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE FROM THE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE
PATTERN.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL PERSIST. UPPER
LEVEL MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST AFTER
25/20Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWEST AFTER 25/08Z. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN
25/00-25/12Z. MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/02Z AND
AFTER 25/19Z OTHERISE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS
VARIED FROM 4.2KFT OVER THE BASIN TO 1KFT OR LESS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TO MINUS 1.5KFT OVER THE BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.
KLAX...CIGS 035 BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 24/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 013
BETWEEN 25/08-25/17Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 022 BETWEEN 25/17-25/20Z.
KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 020 AFTER 25/09Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RK/HALL
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241735
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:13 AM PDT FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS CONFINED TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST...MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
C. WARMER AIRMASS AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (3-5 DEG) THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL KICK OFF TO SUMMER AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE SUMMER. A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY
SUNDAY A DECENT MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
STATIONARY LOW AND MOVES TOWARD CA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE N BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO STRATUS WAS ONLY ADDED
TO THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO STRATUS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 241714
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1014 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER WRN NOAM WILL DOMINATE NORCAL WX
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...IN WHAT COULD END-UP BEING "MEMORABLE"
IF THE MODELS AND FORECAST WX (ESPECIALLY QPF) VERIFY FOR OUR CWA.
FOR TODAY AND SAT...NORCAL WILL BE IN THE MILD WSWLY FLOW S OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE FAR N TODAY SPREADING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE. THAT MAY
CHANGE SAT/SUN AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS WITH THE
FORECAST OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AS SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORT
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SAT...BUT A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE FORECAST ON SUN WITH SYNOPTIC COOLING ALSO LOWERING
TEMPS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MON MAY TURN OUT TO CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST
MEMORIAL DAYS IN DTS (DOWNTOWN SAC) IF THE MODELS VERIFY. ENERGY
FROM THE GULF OF AK IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE BLOCKING
LOW...WITH THE ENEGRY MOVING SEWD MON/TUE OVER CA/NV. GREATER
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON MON/MON NITE...GENERALLY
ENDING TUE...WITH VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR CWA EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
SHOWERS. ANY QPF .08 INCH OR MORE WOULD CRACK THE TOP 5 WETTEST
MEMORIAL DAYS FOR DTS. THE SREF PLUME AVEARGE TEMPS ARE FORECASTING
SOME COOL MAXES FOR MON AS WELL...AGAIN POSSIBLY CRACKING SOME OF
THE TOP 5 COOLEST MEMORIAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LASTEST PLUME
SPREADS HAVE BECOME LESS CLUSTERED AROUND THE MEAN...RESULTING IN
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A RECORD "COOL HIGH" WOULD OCCUR ON THAT DAY.
JHM
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY, BUT THE EARTH HAS BEEN ACTIVE LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS
MORNING. FOLLOWING THE INITIAL 5.7 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF LAKE ALMANOR, THE AREA HAS HAD 40 AFTER SHOCKS
AS OF 415 AM PDT. THE LARGEST WAS 4.9 FELT AT OUR OFFICE IN
SACRAMENTO AROUND 100 AM PDT.
THE SEEMINGLY SEMI PERMANENT LOW OVER WASHINGTON IS STILL
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ROTATING
TROUGHS HAVE ELONGATED THE LOW FROM WEST TO EAST, TRANSLATING TO
A PLEASANT DAY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BURNEY BASIN THROUGH WESTERN
PLUMAS COUNTY AND LASSEN PARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A MUCH MORE ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY JETSTREAM WILL HELP TO
FILL AND KICK OUT THE PAC NW LOW LATE SUNDAY. BUT THIS LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE REPLACED ON MEMORIAL DAY BY ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE ERN
PAC WITH OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASED UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT BE AWARE THAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN
OCCUR WITHIN MORE INTENSE STORMS. SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COASTAL RANGE COULD RECEIVE UP TO 0.25 INCH WHILE THE VALLEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES LATE TUESDAY, DIMINISHING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO
THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL. JCLAPP
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND
MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY. MODELS VARY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND TIMING OF WAVES SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.
FORECAST GOES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SIERRA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT TAF
SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 241620
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MAY GRAY IS THE STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT WITH DECENT
AFTERNOON CLEARING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARMING ABOVE 1000 FEET...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARM UP IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.
COASTAL SECTIONS AND VALLEYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...BUT WITH A STILL DEEP MARINE LAYER...OUR
CURRENT FORECASTED WARMING TREND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND SENT OUT JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY/WX SCENARIO. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT HOW AND WHEN THE MARINE LAYER WILL
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL DEPTHS...AND WHAT RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA. STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING MAY GRAY
TIDINGS TRUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SOCK IN THE BEACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MAY PERMIT A LITTLE MORE CLEARING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ENFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MONDAY.
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A
MODERATE SUNDOWNER AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WIND EVENT COULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE STILL
EARLY...AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND EVENT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...AND THROUGH INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL MAY
PERMIT FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH THE SOLEDAD CANYON FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS PASO ROBLES AND THE
CARRIZO PLAIN.
.LONG TERM (MEMORIAL DAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON MEMORIAL DAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER INTO
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS AND INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VERY LITTLE
CLEARING...IF ANY...WILL OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CLEAR AS A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE AND STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE NORTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH MIXING RATIO NEAR 8 G/KG WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE FROM THE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE
PATTERN.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1200Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND KSMX BETWEEN
06Z-12Z LATER THIS EVENING.
S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS MVFR WILL FINALLY FILL IN ACROSS MUCH LA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS BY 12Z. BURNOFF TIMES SHOULD BE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS. 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF PREDICTED
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS BURNOFF TIMING. +/- 2 HOURS FROM 12Z
TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AROUND 04Z THIS
EVENING. WITH THE POSSIBLY OF A DELAY A FEW HOURS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...BUT
COULD SEE STRATUS BURN OFF +/- AN HOUR EARLY OR LATE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RK/HALL
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...DUMAS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 241607
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS.
ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. DRY AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS REMAIN OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...BUT ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH
+1.5 MB SAN-TPH. THE MORNING NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER
ABOUT 3400 FT DEEP WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND WEST WINDS
ABV A WEAK INVERSION.
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE LARGE-SCALE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DEEP WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS. SMALL DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH ARE EXPECTED AS MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH...FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY TUE MORNING.
THERE IS NOT YET A CLEAR CONSENSUS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS
TO THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS LATE MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE FOR ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH NEAR THE COAST AND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER FOR WED THROUGH FRI IN NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL BRING
STRONGER...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS AND A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
241600Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF FEW-SCT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 4500
FT MSL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VIS WILL REMAIN P6SM. STRATUS RETURNING TONIGHT BETWEEN
25/0200-0400Z. A WEAKER COASTAL EDDIE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CLOUD DECK A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN
THIS MORNINGS. BASES AROUND 2500 FEET AND TOPS NEAR 3500 FEET. VIS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV 5SM.
MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
000
FXUS65 KPSR 241541
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST. IR
IMAGERY AT 8 AM SHOWED SUNNY SKIES AROUND ARIZONA AND SERN
CALIFORNIA...AND AREA RAOBS CONTINUED TO SHOW SWLY FLOW THRU MOST OF
THE COLUMN. LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TO
GIVE ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FLG/TUS 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED 15-20KT BELOW 700MB AND
THIS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER TODAY UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING HIGH...NEAR 580DM OVER THE SRN
DESERTS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
AND THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD REACH TO 100 DEGREES...OR AT LEAST
INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE CURRENT HIGH OF 100 AT PHOENIX TODAY MAY BE
REACHED BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO
SHORT...GIVEN THAT BOTH TUS AND FLG SHOWED A COUPLE DEGREES OF
COOLING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BELOW 700MB...AND CENTRAL DESERTS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERALL
FORECASTS ARE IN FINE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAWIDE WEATHER HAS BEEN ON THE QUIET SIDE THIS WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN EXPECTED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NOT QUITE HAVING AS MUCH OF A COOLING
EFFECT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED NOTICEABLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THERE. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER
AIRMASS...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL WITH METRO
PHOENIX READINGS AROUND 100 THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
OR EVEN INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FINALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE DOES
PEEL OFF THE MAIN LOW AND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THUS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WON/T OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH MONDAY...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS IT/S HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT CHANGES IN THE FLOW STARTING TUESDAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMING ONSHORE IN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 120KT UPPER JET WILL AID IN THE
QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH THE OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN LIKELY ON THE OVERLY STRONG SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE
GEM ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENDING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER IN SPEED AND STRENGTH
WITH MORE SPREAD SEEN WITHIN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A
MODEST COOLDOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN OVERALL FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE
ELECTED TO MOSTLY IGNORE THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN QPF FORECAST FOR
THE REGION GIVEN IT/S OVERLY STRONG SOLUTION...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
INCLUDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
IF OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS START TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER
EUROPEAN...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH WESTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
LOW CENTER WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOW TEENS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241514
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
814 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:13 AM PDT FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS CONFINED TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST...MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
C. WARMER AIRMASS AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (3-5 DEG) THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL KICK OFF TO SUMMER AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE SUMMER. A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY
SUNDAY A DECENT MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
STATIONARY LOW AND MOVES TOWARD CA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE N BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH
STRATUS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTAL HILLS. STRATUS HAS IMPACTED
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AT NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT KSFO WITH STRATUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOAK SATURDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1900Z AND 23 GUSTING
28KT BY 2100Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING BURNING OFF BY 1500Z AT KMRY AND 1600Z AT KSNS. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 1O KT AT KMRY BY 1700Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT KSNS AROUND 2000Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 241143
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL INTO MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA. STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING MAY GRAY
TIDINGS TRUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SOCK IN THE BEACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MAY PERMIT A LITTLE MORE CLEARING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ENFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MONDAY.
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A
MODERATE SUNDOWNER AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WIND EVENT COULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE STILL
EARLY...AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND EVENT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...AND THROUGH INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL MAY
PERMIT FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH THE SOLEDAD CANYON FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS PASO ROBLES AND THE
CARRIZO PLAIN.
.LONG TERM (MEMORIAL DAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON MEMORIAL DAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER INTO
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS AND INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VERY LITTLE
CLEARING...IF ANY...WILL OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CLEAR AS A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE AND STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE NORTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH MIXING RATIO NEAR 8 G/KG WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE FROM THE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE
PATTERN.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1200Z.
N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND KSMX BETWEEN
06Z-12Z LATER THIS EVENING.
S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS. LOW
CLOUDS MVFR WILL FINALLY FILL IN ACROSS MUCH LA COUNTY COAST AND
VALLEYS BY 12Z. BURNOFF TIMES SHOULD BE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF PREDICTED RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS BURNOFF TIMING. +/- 2 HOURS FROM 12Z
TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AROUND 04Z THIS
EVENING. WITH THE POSSIBLY OF A DELAY A FEW HOURS.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...BUT
COULD SEE STRATUS BURN OFF +/- AN HOUR EARLY OR LATE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNIOPSIS...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 241138
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
438 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY, BUT THE EARTH HAS BEEN ACTIVE LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS
MORNING. FOLLOWING THE INITIAL 5.7 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE ON THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF LAKE ALMANOR, THE AREA HAS HAD 40 AFTER SHOCKS
AS OF 415 AM PDT. THE LARGEST WAS 4.9 FELT AT OUR OFFICE IN
SACRAMENTO AROUND 100 AM PDT.
THE SEEMINGLY SEMI PERMANENT LOW OVER WASHINGTON IS STILL
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ROTATING
TROUGHS HAVE ELONGATED THE LOW FROM WEST TO EAST, TRANSLATING TO
A PLEASANT DAY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BURNEY BASIN THROUGH WESTERN
PLUMAS COUNTY AND LASSEN PARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A MUCH MORE ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY JETSTREAM WILL HELP TO
FILL AND KICK OUT THE PAC NW LOW LATE SUNDAY. BUT THIS LOW/TROUGH
WILL BE REPLACED ON MEMORIAL DAY BY ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE ERN
PAC WITH OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INCREASED UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT BE AWARE THAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN
OCCUR WITHIN MORE INTENSE STORMS. SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COASTAL RANGE COULD RECEIVE UP TO 0.25 INCH WHILE THE VALLEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 0.1 INCH. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES LATE TUESDAY, DIMINISHING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO
THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL. JCLAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW 15 KNOTS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KEKA 241137
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
437 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT, DEL
NORTE, AND TRINITY COUNTIES. DRIZZLE WAS BEING REPORTED IN EUREKA,
BUT RADAR WAS NOT PICKING IT UP SINCE IT WAS SO SHALLOW. EXPECT
PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE SKIES CLEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY ARE NOT AS COLD AS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST, PROBABLY DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, DROPPED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR ZONE 4. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY. SOME FROST MAY
DEVELOPS IN SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEYS, BUT AREAL COVERAGE WAS
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TODAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. THINGS GO DOWNHILL
FROM THERE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SHOWERS NORTH OF ORICK ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. POPS
ARE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO
THE SOUTH. PERHAPS UP TO 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR IN THE SHOWERS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER BOTH OF THESE DAYS, DECREASING AS ONE HEADS
SOUTH. MONDAY IS THE WETTEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMOUNTS SO BUMPED UP POPS A LOT TO
REFLECT THIS. A 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AS WE APPROACH DAY 7. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY
ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL.
&&
.AVIATION...AFTER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TAF SITES...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE W OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER NW CA WILL
LEAD TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS S OF CAPE MENDO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. S
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. /SEC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 241128
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
428 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL INTO MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA. STRONG ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING MAY GRAY
TIDINGS TRUE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SOCK IN THE BEACHES
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MAY PERMIT A LITTLE MORE CLEARING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ENFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MONDAY.
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...A
MODERATE SUNDOWNER AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR WIND EVENT COULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE STILL
EARLY...AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND EVENT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...AND THROUGH INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KLAX-KDAG AND KSMX-KBFL MAY
PERMIT FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH THE SOLEDAD CANYON FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS PASO ROBLES AND THE
CARRIZO PLAIN.
.LONG TERM (MEMORIAL DAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON MEMORIAL DAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY SPILL OVER INTO
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP FOR MOST AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THROUGH THE SOLEDAD PASS AND INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VERY LITTLE
CLEARING...IF ANY...WILL OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH VALLEY AREAS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO CLEAR AS A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE AND STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE NORTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH MIXING RATIO NEAR 8 G/KG WITH THE FRONT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE DRIZZLE FROM THE NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE
PATTERN.
A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. SUNDOWNER WINDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...23/2335Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. A PERSISTENT EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LA BASIN TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS
OF VENTURA COUNTY LATE. ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
ALONG CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL COAST
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. A 10% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. A 10% CHANCE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNIOPSIS...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241118
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
418 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...ANOTHERY FAIRLY CHILLY
MORNING ON TAP FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH A FEW AREAS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. CURRENT CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR A PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SAN MATEO COAST DOWN TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY PIECE, SO ANY CLOUD
FORMATION THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO INCREASE 1-3C FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR WARMING AT THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACNW/BC
REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS PIECES OF ENERGY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND THEN
ROTATE AROUND IT. THIS COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING.
OVER THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FROM THE WEATHER LOOKING LIKE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO WHERE WE END UP TODAY -- GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PACNW/CA COASTAL AREA. EACH MODEL RUN
AS OF LATE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS GOES THROUGH ALONG WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PVA. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH), HOWEVER THE SYSTEM DOES OF PW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.25" SO
LOCALLY HIGHER NUMBERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH
STRATUS BANKING AGAINST THE COASTAL HILLS. STRATUS HAS IMPACTED
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. A TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AT NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT KSFO WITH STRATUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOAK SATURDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT BY 1900Z AND 23 GUSTING
28KT BY 2100Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING BURNING OFF BY 1500Z AT KMRY AND 1600Z AT KSNS. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 1O KT AT KMRY BY 1700Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT KSNS AROUND 2000Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KSGX 241013
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST
WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
BRING PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
NEAR 3000 FEET WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS OR LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A LITTLE
STRONGER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z
ECMWF OFFERS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IN LINE WITH SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED SYSTEMS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE PRIOR
12Z ECMWF RUN. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR
WHAT IT IS WORTH...A BLEND OF THE DOWNSCALED QPF FOR THE LAST TWO
00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF YIELD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TENTH
TO ONE QUARTER INCH NEAR THE COAST TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ONTO THE
DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THOSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
241000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF BKN-OVC STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500
FT MSL THROUGH 16-18Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY UNTIL 19-20Z ALONG THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI. STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL...WITH MID-LATE
MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY.
MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
DESERT MTN SLOPES AND THROUGH/EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE 5-8 FT/8-10 SEC NW SWELL WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CHOPPY SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TO 7.2 FEET AND BELOW NORMAL LOW
TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SURF TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY DUE TO THE SWINGS IN THE TIDES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
000
FXUS66 KMTR 241006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...ANOTHERY FAIRLY CHILLY
MORNING ON TAP FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA WITH A FEW AREAS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. CURRENT CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR A PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SAN MATEO COAST DOWN TO AROUND MONTEREY BAY. CURRENT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS STILL TWICE THE WESTERLY PIECE, SO ANY CLOUD
FORMATION THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO INCREASE 1-3C FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WE
SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR WARMING AT THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACNW/BC
REGION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS PIECES OF ENERGY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND THEN
ROTATE AROUND IT. THIS COMBINED WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING.
OVER THE WEEKEND RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FROM THE WEATHER LOOKING LIKE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOSE TO WHERE WE END UP TODAY -- GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
ON MONDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PACNW/CA COASTAL AREA. EACH MODEL RUN
AS OF LATE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF AXIS GOES THROUGH ALONG WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PVA. POP VALUES WERE INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH), HOWEVER THE SYSTEM DOES OF PW AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1.25" SO
LOCALLY HIGHER NUMBERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT
THE COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KHNX 241005
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A COOL ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE US ATTM AS CLOSED LOW
CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAC NW. MODELS ARE
KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. SOME CHANGES HAVE TAKEN PLACE WITH THE GFS AND THE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY.
WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECM IS
TRYING TO CLOSE THE LOW CENTER AS IT DIVES SOUTH OVER US. THE ECM
IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY AND TUES. WE
ARE TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE MORE
ROBUST ECM.
THE CNRFC AND HPC QPF VALUES ARE UP AND WE HAVE LOADED THEM AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK
AND KEEP US IN A STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
THE TEMPS IN CHECK AS COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT REGIONS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH...NEAR AND BELOW THE KERN CO MOUNTAIN PASSES. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR THE PACHECO PASS AND TOWARDS
LOS BANOS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953
KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980
KFAT 05-26 103:1974 66:1946 68:1951 40:1953
KBFL 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916
KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893
KBFL 05-26 107:1951 68:1998 72:1979 40:1918
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KREV 241005
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
305 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE ON MEMORIAL DAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POP SUNDAY NORTH
OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
A TROUGH WILL LOITER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BY A RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN CANADA. FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA WILL BE UNDER DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80) AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OREGON AND FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR SHOWERS BUT THE THERMAL PACKING
BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL
PRODUCE A BREEZY DAY. FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THAT AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK FORCING.
SNYDER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE EARLY IN THE
FORECAST. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL START WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY SPREADING PCPN ACROSS NRN CA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE ECMWF STARTS TO DEVELOP A SPLIT FLOW DROPPING
THE MAIN LOW DOWN THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS ARE
ALSO STARTING TO SHOW THIS SOLUTION WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH.
THE SPLIT WOULD RESULT IN LESS WIND OVER THE REGION AND ALSO A
DECREASED CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE NRN CWA WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE WIND AND THE BETTER POP CHANCES OVER THE
FAR NORTH.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE GEM HAS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE MORE OF A
NW FLOW OVER THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH IN WRN
CANADA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE NRN CWA. SOME RIDGING IS HINTED AT BY THURSDAY.
WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS STILL FAIRLY PRONOUNCED AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STARTING TO SHOW MORE SPREAD...AM NOT INCLINED TO
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING NEAR THE NRN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS LOW WILL MEAN BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
GUSTS IN TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE EAST OF THE SIERRA...BUT STILL VFR
CONDITIONS.
A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
AFTN/EVNG. EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DO NOT THINK
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BELOW VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KPSR 240950
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREAWIDE WEATHER HAS BEEN ON THE QUIET SIDE THIS WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN EXPECTED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS NOT QUITE HAVING AS MUCH OF A COOLING
EFFECT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED NOTICEABLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THERE. FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER
AIRMASS...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL WITH METRO
PHOENIX READINGS AROUND 100 THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
OR EVEN INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FINALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE DOES
PEEL OFF THE MAIN LOW AND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN...THUS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WON/T OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH MONDAY...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS IT/S HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT CHANGES IN THE FLOW STARTING TUESDAY.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMING ONSHORE IN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 120KT UPPER JET WILL AID IN THE
QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH THE OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN LIKELY ON THE OVERLY STRONG SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE
GEM ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENDING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER IN SPEED AND STRENGTH
WITH MORE SPREAD SEEN WITHIN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A
MODEST COOLDOWN OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STILL LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN OVERALL FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE
ELECTED TO MOSTLY IGNORE THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN QPF FORECAST FOR
THE REGION GIVEN IT/S OVERLY STRONG SOLUTION...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
INCLUDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
IF OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS START TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER
EUROPEAN...HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH WESTERLY BREEZES
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
LOW CENTER WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOW TEENS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240538
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW WILL START TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY PREVENTING ANY
ADDITIONAL WARMING.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE SFO BAY AREA NORTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE SFO BAY AREA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE GFS HINTS
AT A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP US DRY AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:38 PM PDT THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT
THE COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 240519
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1019 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS IS KEEPING A DRY...BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORCAL. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60`S AT
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
VERSUS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40`S TO LOW 50`S LOOK ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE NEEDED.
AN EARTHQUAKE WAS FELT MODERATELY BY NUMEROUS PERSONS OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 847 PM PDT. TREMORS WHERE FELT A
FEW MINUTES AFTER THE INITIAL EARTHQUAKE. DAMAGE REPORTS SO
FAR HAVE ONLY BEEN OBJECTS FALLING FROM SHELVES AND DISHES
RATTLED OR BROKEN.
ACCORDING TO CALWAS REPORTS THE EPICENTER WAS NEAR GREENVILLE IN
PLUMAS COUNTY WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 5.7.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE HAS ROTATED AROUND THE LOW INTO NORTHERN NEVADA.
THIS TOUCHED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SHASTA...LASSEN PARK AND
PLUMAS COUNTY EARLIER TODAY BUT THESE HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEY AND
MAY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE DAYLIGHT ENDS.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL INCREASE AROUND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES AND STAY ABOUT
THE SAME FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER SOME OVER THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE BURNEY BASIN THROUGH WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND LASSEN
PARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EK
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEY AND
MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY. MODELS VARY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND TIMING OF WAVES SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS.
FORECAST GOES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SIERRA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSGX 240434
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 800 PM SHOWS LOW STRATUS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS...ORANGE COUNTY...AND THE INLAND EMPIRE...AS A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS OVER NIGHT.
SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SO-CAL WILL REMAIN IN A
RELATIVELY STAGNATE PATTERN THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT TREND OF MORNING LOW STRATUS FOR COASTAL AREA AND INLAND
VALLEYS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL EDDY.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH AFTERNON AND
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED EACH DAY THOUGH
MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH.
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF
REMAINS BULLISH WITH ITS FORECAST OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IF THIS WAVE WERE TO
TRACK ACROSS SOCAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE 120
HR FCST PANEL OF THE ECMWF...IT WOULD DEFINITELY RAIN. BUT THE GFS
IS AT ODDS WITH THE ECMWF AND FORECASTS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE VERY LEAST...BOTH PATTERNS SUPPORT SEVERAL DAYS OF
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
240300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 2100-3500 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 4000 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH AROUND 30 SM INLAND...ESPECIALLY IN SAN
DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE BKN/SCT IN ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. VIS OF 3-5 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE STRATUS MEETS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS
THE COAST BTWN 16-18 UTC FRI...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN OVER THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST
AND AROUND 40 SM INLAND BY MID SAT MORNING.
MTS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND DESERT SLOPES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A 5-8 FT/11 SEC NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY...ROUGH SEAS
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
HIGHER AND LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL
COMBINE WITH SURF TO CREATE POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BA/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
000
FXUS65 KPSR 240401
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE REGION UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT
WEEK...THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS ANTICIPATED TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME
MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS AGAIN WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. 8 PM MST OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND
THE AREA ARE SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH UPPER 80 TO
LOW 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS. LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AND SETTLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND DOWN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE DESERTS. AS
THIS LOW FEATURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY...WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED THROUGH THE FLOW...AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES WITH ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
RELAX BECOMING MORE VARIABLE IN NATURE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
TYPICAL EAST DRAINAGE FLOW BY SUNRISE. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE
GRID PACKAGE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 250 PM MST/PDT/...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHICH IS CLOSER TO
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING WILL KEEP AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS BREEZY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE BREEZINESS AS VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...PASSING
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS ON
THE LOW DESERTS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE
MODELS SHOW THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC. IN ESSENCE...THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST
COOLING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDINESS ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SPLIT IN THE FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH LEADS TO A SIZABLE SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE FEATURE. THE ECMWF IS DEEPEST
AND SLOWEST. THE GEM IS WEAKEST AND FASTEST. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN
BUT CLOSER TO THE GEM SOLUTION. THE GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE GFS
PRETTY WELL. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE OPERATIONAL
RUN IS TOO DEEP AND A BIT SLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MADE SOME SUBTLE
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS WHAT ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR NOW AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR INDICATES
LOW PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...TEMPS START TO WARM
UP. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FAVOR PERSISTENCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS. FOR KIPL
AND KBLH...WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PERSIST BEFORE BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE AT AND AFTER SUNRISE. THE PHX METRO TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE
A DECREASE IN WESTERLY BREEZES BEFORE VRBING OUT AND GOING EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTN/EVE BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY...BEGINNING
TYPICALLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU MID EVENING.
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KT ARE LIKELY AT ALL AIRFIELDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEEPING
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH PEAK WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND POOR TO FAIR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/PERCHA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240335
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW WILL START TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH INLAND
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY BUT
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY PREVENTING ANY
ADDITIONAL WARMING.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM THE SFO BAY AREA NORTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE SFO BAY AREA. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE GFS HINTS
AT A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP US DRY AFTER
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT THE COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER KMRY AND KSNS AROUND 09Z
AND 12Z RESPECTIVELY. CLEARING ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 240325
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDINESS AND FOG. GUSTY WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY...THEN A WARMUP TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BROUGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WITH WINDS DROPPING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND CENTRAL COAST...WILL
BE DROPPING THOSE ADVISORIES AT 9 PM UPDATE.
CURRENT ACARS DATA SHOWING A WEAKENED MARINE INVERSION WITH A DEPTH
AROUND 4000 FEET. THIS WEAKENED INVERSION HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD CLEARING
TODAY. LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN EDDY CIRCULATION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...LOCALLY EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER COASTAL SLOPES.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
VERY LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS STATIONARY WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING
STATIC OVER SOUTHERN CA THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD RETURN ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND REORGANIZE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
THE LONG RANGE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FUZZY WITH LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE PAC NORTHWEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OUT...THIS ALLOWS TIME FOR A STRONGER
NORTHWEST JET STREAM TO REACH THE EASTERN PAC AND DIG DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. BY TUESDAY MORNING THIS JET
STREAM IS RAPIDLY PUSHING 90+KTS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS...BUT THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO THE
BIGGER STORY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND AV DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN
CA BY WEDNESDAY BUT IT MAY REMAIN RATHER WINDY IN PLACES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN WARMING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...23/2335Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
LA COUNTY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. A PERSISTENT EDDY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LA BASIN TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS
OF VENTURA COUNTY LATE. ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
ALONG CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL COAST
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. A 10% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. A 10% CHANCE THAT VFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 240047
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WERE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS TIGHTENED.
TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 60S TO 70 DEGREES INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.
FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 40S.
PATCHY STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABUNDANT
STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE MISSED THE MARK BIG TIME RECENTLY WITH
OVER FORECASTING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN ALASKA...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO THE NORTH BAY BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MONTEREY BAY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
PAST 48 HOURS THAT THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME RAIN WITH
THIS STORM...BUT HAVE VARIED WITH THE TIMING SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR
EXAMPLE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED DURING THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY...THAT THE RAIN WAS GOING TO PRIMARILY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY. NOW...THOSE MODELS SHOW RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IF RAIN DOES IMPACT THE REGION...ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT BOTH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM. AS MEMORIAL DAY NEARS...CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KMRY AND KSNS THAT MAY SEE CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SEABREEZE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REFORM BUT REMAIN AT THE COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR...MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER KMRY AND KSNS AROUND 09Z
AND 12Z RESPECTIVELY. CLEARING ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
| 
