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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021814
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1114 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL TERMINALS HAVE NOW
GONE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WOULD FAVOR NORTH AND EAST
BAY AFTER 0Z. CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 010
FEET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.
CIGS POSSIBLY UNDER 010 BY 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH 02Z WITH A PASSING
SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS LOWERING AFTER THAT POINT POTENTIALLY
TO 003 AFTER 05Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: CW/BELL
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 021646
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
946 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...FOR
REDUCED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH
MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK SHIFTING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIETER CONDITIONS WEATHER-WISE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLOWLY RECEDING DEWPOINT READINGS. 12Z SFC/RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE A
STILL DEEP AND NEAR EXCESSIVE LL MOISTURE SURFACE HOLDING OVER MUCH
OF AZ...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM TO 10 TO 15C AND PWATS
1.55 INCHES FOR BOTH PHOENIX AND TUCSON. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE
SURFACE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SLOWLY THIN AND DECREASE THIS AM...WITH
GPS IPW READINGS HEADING SOUTH OF 1.25 INCH READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA AND THE INTL BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO UNDER
THEIR EXCESSIVE AND THE-SOUTHWESTS-VERSION-OF-MUGGY READINGS IN THE
MID 50S TO 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER DESERTS...3 TO 8 DEGREES DRIER
REGARDING 24 HR CHANGE.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE ML/UL RIDGE CIRCULATION CENTERS CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS/NM AREA TO OUR EAST. LITTLE
CHANGE ANTICIPATED REGARDING FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AND WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. GLANCE THROUGH 06Z GFS/12Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB-500 J/KG CAPE VALUES FOR PHOENIX-
BLYTHE-YUMA TODAY AND BETTER AMOUNTS OVER THE TYPICAL EASTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOGOLLON RIM. HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC QPF PLOTS KEEP
ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LENDING ITSELF TO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TODAY FOR STORM ACTIVITY. UPDATES
THIS AM INCLUDED SCALING BACK POP CHANCES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY AND CLEARING OUT SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 325 AM MST/PDT/...

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT WITH PARAMETERS NOT FAVORING
ANY LARGE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED UNSEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE AT 500 MB OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MODELS ADVECT THIS WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AZ TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS SOMEWHAT. ALSO...300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO
GYRATE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD PROVIDING MOST UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.

DATA ALSO SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS NEARLY EXCESSIVE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF AZ. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD RECIRCULATE OR REDISTRIBUTE SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...MEANING TOWARD
PHOENIX. THEREFORE...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND WARMER AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS TODAY...DESPITE
THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW GRADE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR REGION THE NEXT 2
DAYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE OUTFLOWS FROM
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BETTER CHANCE
OF AFTN STORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF HARD TO
TIME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT
500 MB ALSO DECREASE INTO THE MINUS 6 DEG RANGE WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON. WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND MORE FAVORABLE SUPPORT
ALOFT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE RAISE A
BIT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS FORECAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY ONE PERTURBATION FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN AZ
GETS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF
PHOENIX. MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE
A ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST
ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE MONSOONISH AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS ALSO FORECAST
A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH A
COUPLE OF HARD TO TIME INVERTED TROFS BRUSHING THE MEXICAN BORDER.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUT
BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF EVEN OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
HIGH CIRRUS CIGS TO REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO MAINLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AT KIPL...AND TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE AT KBLH AS WELL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 021646
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
946 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...FOR
REDUCED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH
MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK SHIFTING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIETER CONDITIONS WEATHER-WISE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SLOWLY RECEDING DEWPOINT READINGS. 12Z SFC/RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE A
STILL DEEP AND NEAR EXCESSIVE LL MOISTURE SURFACE HOLDING OVER MUCH
OF AZ...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM TO 10 TO 15C AND PWATS
1.55 INCHES FOR BOTH PHOENIX AND TUCSON. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE
SURFACE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SLOWLY THIN AND DECREASE THIS AM...WITH
GPS IPW READINGS HEADING SOUTH OF 1.25 INCH READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA AND THE INTL BORDER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO UNDER
THEIR EXCESSIVE AND THE-SOUTHWESTS-VERSION-OF-MUGGY READINGS IN THE
MID 50S TO 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER DESERTS...3 TO 8 DEGREES DRIER
REGARDING 24 HR CHANGE.

SYNOPTICALLY...THE ML/UL RIDGE CIRCULATION CENTERS CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS/NM AREA TO OUR EAST. LITTLE
CHANGE ANTICIPATED REGARDING FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING AND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AND WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. GLANCE THROUGH 06Z GFS/12Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB-500 J/KG CAPE VALUES FOR PHOENIX-
BLYTHE-YUMA TODAY AND BETTER AMOUNTS OVER THE TYPICAL EASTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN/MOGOLLON RIM. HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC QPF PLOTS KEEP
ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LENDING ITSELF TO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TODAY FOR STORM ACTIVITY. UPDATES
THIS AM INCLUDED SCALING BACK POP CHANCES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY AND CLEARING OUT SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 325 AM MST/PDT/...

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT WITH PARAMETERS NOT FAVORING
ANY LARGE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED UNSEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE AT 500 MB OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MODELS ADVECT THIS WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AZ TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS SOMEWHAT. ALSO...300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO
GYRATE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD PROVIDING MOST UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.

DATA ALSO SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS NEARLY EXCESSIVE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF AZ. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD RECIRCULATE OR REDISTRIBUTE SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...MEANING TOWARD
PHOENIX. THEREFORE...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND WARMER AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS TODAY...DESPITE
THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW GRADE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR REGION THE NEXT 2
DAYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE OUTFLOWS FROM
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BETTER CHANCE
OF AFTN STORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF HARD TO
TIME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT
500 MB ALSO DECREASE INTO THE MINUS 6 DEG RANGE WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON. WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND MORE FAVORABLE SUPPORT
ALOFT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE RAISE A
BIT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS FORECAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY ONE PERTURBATION FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN AZ
GETS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF
PHOENIX. MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE
A ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST
ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE MONSOONISH AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS ALSO FORECAST
A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH A
COUPLE OF HARD TO TIME INVERTED TROFS BRUSHING THE MEXICAN BORDER.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUT
BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF EVEN OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
HIGH CIRRUS CIGS TO REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO MAINLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AT KIPL...AND TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE AT KBLH AS WELL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



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000
FXUS66 KSGX 021634
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
934 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DRIER FRIDAY WITH SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CREATE DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER...ALONG WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL AROUND 550 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS. THE 02/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED
A 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION. THIS IS USUALLY A WEAK ENOUGH
INVERSION FOR MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO CLEAR QUICKLY IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUD DECK BEING FAIRLY
THICK...AROUND 1200 FT...AND WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING AND COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDING
ALSO CALCULATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.68 INCHES...WITH A DRY
LAYER CLOSE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS.

INCREASED DIURNAL HEATING TODAY..COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP CUT OFF
CONVECTION...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FRIDAY...MOVING
OUR FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
HELP CUT OFF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND LIMIT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
AND THE HIGH DESERT.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS
AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT INTRUSION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THEN CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TO OUR NORTH...AND MAINTAINS
ONSHORE FLOW WITH NEAR SEASONAL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
021602Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS MAINLY 20-30 SM INLAND IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH BASES 600-800 FT MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FT
MSL...AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCAL VIS AOB 2 SM...WILL LIKELY CLEAR
TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1900 UTC. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. MARINE LAYER INVERSION OF
AROUND 5 DEG C. 1900-03/0600 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL BECOMING FEW-SCT. 03/0600-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 15-25 SM INLAND...WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM. CHANCE THAT
VIS COULD DROP TO 1-2 SM DURING THE 03/1300-1500 UTC TIME-PERIOD FOR
THE COASTAL TAF SITES SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 1800-
03/0100 UTC TIME-FRAME...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERTS.
THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL BE NEAR 8000 FT MSL WITH CB TOPS TO 40000-
45000 FT MSL. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VIS TO 3SM OR LESS
IN RAIN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL BECOMING FEW-
SCT THROUGH 03/0000 UTC...WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
902 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KSGX 021634
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
934 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DRIER FRIDAY WITH SMALLER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
CREATE DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER...ALONG WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL AROUND 550 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS. THE 02/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED
A 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION. THIS IS USUALLY A WEAK ENOUGH
INVERSION FOR MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO CLEAR QUICKLY IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUD DECK BEING FAIRLY
THICK...AROUND 1200 FT...AND WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING AND COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDING
ALSO CALCULATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.68 INCHES...WITH A DRY
LAYER CLOSE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS.

INCREASED DIURNAL HEATING TODAY..COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP CUT OFF
CONVECTION...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL SAG SOUTH FRIDAY...MOVING
OUR FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
HELP CUT OFF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND LIMIT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
AND THE HIGH DESERT.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND VALLEYS
AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT INTRUSION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THEN CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TO OUR NORTH...AND MAINTAINS
ONSHORE FLOW WITH NEAR SEASONAL WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
021602Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC-BKN STRATUS MAINLY 20-30 SM INLAND IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH BASES 600-800 FT MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FT
MSL...AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCAL VIS AOB 2 SM...WILL LIKELY CLEAR
TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1900 UTC. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. MARINE LAYER INVERSION OF
AROUND 5 DEG C. 1900-03/0600 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL BECOMING FEW-SCT. 03/0600-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 15-25 SM INLAND...WITH BASES 700-1000 FT
MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM. CHANCE THAT
VIS COULD DROP TO 1-2 SM DURING THE 03/1300-1500 UTC TIME-PERIOD FOR
THE COASTAL TAF SITES SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 1800-
03/0100 UTC TIME-FRAME...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERTS.
THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL BE NEAR 8000 FT MSL WITH CB TOPS TO 40000-
45000 FT MSL. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VIS TO 3SM OR LESS
IN RAIN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL BECOMING FEW-
SCT THROUGH 03/0000 UTC...WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
902 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021621
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ONE LAST MONSOON PUSH THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE MOISTURE STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY SO ANYTHING WE`LL GET THIS MORNING WILL JUST BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF MEASURING
.01. PWATS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE SCOOTS
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH. BUT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW BETTER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE LA/VENTURA
MOUNTAINS SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT AGAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHY
THERE ISN`T A LOT THAT THE AIR MASS IS GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE
COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE MORNING FORECAST AND
KEPT IN FOR THE MTNS/AV THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. SLO/SBA COUNTY MAY
HOLD ON TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SHOW COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY
AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER. SO DESPITE THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TEMPS TODAY EITHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER. STILL FAIRLY HUMID BUT A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND LESS HUMIDITY. MARINE LYR
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART AND SHOULD BE
HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING EACH DAY.

MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE
LA/VENTURA MTNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT PWATS MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
AFTERNOON CU EACH DAY BUT MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ACTUAL STORMS. IF
NOTHING HAPPENS TODAY WILL LIKELY REMOVE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AND
LEAVE THEM OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR NOW...THE THREAT OF SCA CONDITIONS IS MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021605
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021605
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021605
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021605
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR LOOP
SHOWS A FEW WEAK CELLS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ZERO LIGHTNING STRIKES OR
FLASHES DETECTED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT A BIT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTH AND SF BAY PLUS THE CITY. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS
MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTH BAY FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 021538
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
838 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY ALTHOUGH
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. DECREASING CHANCES OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER MILD START
AS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWS ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 90S. HIGHS OF 100-108 LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY KEEP DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS IN
THE 80S. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE SIERRA...SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE...AND SPREADING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY IN ANY STORM GIVEN HIGHER PWAT VALUES. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.  CEO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S FROM FOUR CORNERS TO NORCAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY DURING SOME NIGHT
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE HIGH IS BRINGING ONE OF THESE NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORM PERIODS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEING GENERATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORTWAVE MODELS INDICATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TODAY FOR A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING WILL BRING A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS PUSH A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO NORCAL
TONIGHT WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP 1.5 INCHES. HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BUT WITH LACK OF HEATING AND DYNAMICS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND MORE LIKELY WILL SEE
ISOLATED SPRINKLES.

MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH STABILITY PROGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BOTH DAYS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A SYSTEM PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE DELTA INFLUENCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHILE ELSEWHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO COME IN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A LOW OFF THE COAST EDGES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AS
WELL.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

OUR CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS IS
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND
MIDWEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SIERRA
CREST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR
THE CENTRAL VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE WINDS FOR TAF SITES
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER 20Z WITH WINDS
10-20 KTS FOR TAF SITES. DELTA WINDS WILL RANGE 15-25 KTS. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 021538
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
838 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY ALTHOUGH
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. DECREASING CHANCES OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER MILD START
AS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWS ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE 90S. HIGHS OF 100-108 LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY KEEP DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS IN
THE 80S. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE SIERRA...SOUTH OF
LAKE TAHOE...AND SPREADING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY IN ANY STORM GIVEN HIGHER PWAT VALUES. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.  CEO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S FROM FOUR CORNERS TO NORCAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY DURING SOME NIGHT
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE HIGH IS BRINGING ONE OF THESE NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORM PERIODS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEING GENERATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORTWAVE MODELS INDICATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TODAY FOR A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING WILL BRING A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS PUSH A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO NORCAL
TONIGHT WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP 1.5 INCHES. HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BUT WITH LACK OF HEATING AND DYNAMICS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND MORE LIKELY WILL SEE
ISOLATED SPRINKLES.

MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH STABILITY PROGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BOTH DAYS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A SYSTEM PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE DELTA INFLUENCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHILE ELSEWHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO COME IN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A LOW OFF THE COAST EDGES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AS
WELL.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

OUR CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS IS
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND
MIDWEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SIERRA
CREST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR
THE CENTRAL VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE WINDS FOR TAF SITES
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER 20Z WITH WINDS
10-20 KTS FOR TAF SITES. DELTA WINDS WILL RANGE 15-25 KTS. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 021151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
451 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH TODAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S UT AND N AZ
ACROSS N CA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE BACK BELOW 100
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO OR SO BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A
RESULT...THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS SHRUNK A BIT...BUT THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER AND N COAST INTERIOR
ZONES. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND AWAY FROM THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO
THE S. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONE WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S
AND SE...WITH INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS S AND SE OF MENDOCINO COUNTY MOVING NW.
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. EARLIER LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
A FEW IN-CLOUD STRIKES CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME S OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE QPF JUST OFF OUR COAST BY FRI
AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. A BIT
OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST PER LOW
LEVEL OMEGA AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE PROGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A COL REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
N. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...LESS OF A COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. MOIST S FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SW
U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE
INTERIOR THRU THE WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS HAS BEEN COVERING THE COAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WIND WAVES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACCORDING TO OUR SPARSE NETWORK OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE NWPS AND ENP WAVE MODELS SEAS WILL BE BORDERLINE
TODAY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PER OUR
STEEPNESS CRITERIA OF 7-8 FT AT 8 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE
COVERAGE SHRINKS ON FRIDAY WITH LESS THAN HALF OF THE ZONE COVERED.
TEMPTED TO END THE ADVISORY ON FRIDAY FOR THIS REASON. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT.
THE HIGHEST SEAS PER THE WAVE MODEL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WIND WAVES. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RAISE THE SPECTER OF FIRE WX
HEADLINES. A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AFTERNOON FOR
THE TRINITY FIRE WX ZONE. MODELS ARE HONING IN ON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE DRIFTING INTO W
SISKIYOU COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFR...HAVE DECIDED TO
HEADLINE THIS IN THE FWF PRODUCT...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ESCALATE AFTER EVALUATING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRI FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SAT FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
451 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH TODAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S UT AND N AZ
ACROSS N CA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE BACK BELOW 100
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO OR SO BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A
RESULT...THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS SHRUNK A BIT...BUT THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER AND N COAST INTERIOR
ZONES. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND AWAY FROM THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO
THE S. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONE WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S
AND SE...WITH INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS S AND SE OF MENDOCINO COUNTY MOVING NW.
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. EARLIER LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
A FEW IN-CLOUD STRIKES CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME S OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE QPF JUST OFF OUR COAST BY FRI
AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. A BIT
OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST PER LOW
LEVEL OMEGA AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE PROGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A COL REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
N. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...LESS OF A COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. MOIST S FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SW
U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE
INTERIOR THRU THE WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS HAS BEEN COVERING THE COAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WIND WAVES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACCORDING TO OUR SPARSE NETWORK OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE NWPS AND ENP WAVE MODELS SEAS WILL BE BORDERLINE
TODAY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PER OUR
STEEPNESS CRITERIA OF 7-8 FT AT 8 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE
COVERAGE SHRINKS ON FRIDAY WITH LESS THAN HALF OF THE ZONE COVERED.
TEMPTED TO END THE ADVISORY ON FRIDAY FOR THIS REASON. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT.
THE HIGHEST SEAS PER THE WAVE MODEL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WIND WAVES. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RAISE THE SPECTER OF FIRE WX
HEADLINES. A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AFTERNOON FOR
THE TRINITY FIRE WX ZONE. MODELS ARE HONING IN ON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE DRIFTING INTO W
SISKIYOU COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFR...HAVE DECIDED TO
HEADLINE THIS IN THE FWF PRODUCT...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ESCALATE AFTER EVALUATING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRI FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SAT FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 021151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
451 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH TODAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S UT AND N AZ
ACROSS N CA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE BACK BELOW 100
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO OR SO BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A
RESULT...THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS SHRUNK A BIT...BUT THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER AND N COAST INTERIOR
ZONES. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND AWAY FROM THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO
THE S. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONE WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S
AND SE...WITH INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS S AND SE OF MENDOCINO COUNTY MOVING NW.
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. EARLIER LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
A FEW IN-CLOUD STRIKES CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME S OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE QPF JUST OFF OUR COAST BY FRI
AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. A BIT
OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST PER LOW
LEVEL OMEGA AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE PROGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A COL REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
N. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...LESS OF A COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. MOIST S FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SW
U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE
INTERIOR THRU THE WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS HAS BEEN COVERING THE COAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WIND WAVES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACCORDING TO OUR SPARSE NETWORK OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE NWPS AND ENP WAVE MODELS SEAS WILL BE BORDERLINE
TODAY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PER OUR
STEEPNESS CRITERIA OF 7-8 FT AT 8 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE
COVERAGE SHRINKS ON FRIDAY WITH LESS THAN HALF OF THE ZONE COVERED.
TEMPTED TO END THE ADVISORY ON FRIDAY FOR THIS REASON. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT.
THE HIGHEST SEAS PER THE WAVE MODEL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WIND WAVES. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RAISE THE SPECTER OF FIRE WX
HEADLINES. A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AFTERNOON FOR
THE TRINITY FIRE WX ZONE. MODELS ARE HONING IN ON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE DRIFTING INTO W
SISKIYOU COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFR...HAVE DECIDED TO
HEADLINE THIS IN THE FWF PRODUCT...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ESCALATE AFTER EVALUATING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRI FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SAT FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 021151
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
451 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH TODAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S UT AND N AZ
ACROSS N CA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE BACK BELOW 100
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY ARE ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO OR SO BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A
RESULT...THE NUMBER OF LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS SHRUNK A BIT...BUT THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE UPPER TRINITY RIVER AND N COAST INTERIOR
ZONES. HEAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN TRINITY COUNTY CLOSER TO THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND AWAY FROM THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO
THE S. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONE WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

ALTHO THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S
AND SE...WITH INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS S AND SE OF MENDOCINO COUNTY MOVING NW.
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA THIS
MORNING. EARLIER LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...BUT
A FEW IN-CLOUD STRIKES CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME S OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE QPF JUST OFF OUR COAST BY FRI
AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. A BIT
OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST PER LOW
LEVEL OMEGA AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE PROGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A COL REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
N. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...LESS OF A COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. MOIST S FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SW
U.S. RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR THE
INTERIOR THRU THE WEEKEND. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS HAS BEEN COVERING THE COAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTAL
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WIND WAVES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACCORDING TO OUR SPARSE NETWORK OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE NWPS AND ENP WAVE MODELS SEAS WILL BE BORDERLINE
TODAY FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS PER OUR
STEEPNESS CRITERIA OF 7-8 FT AT 8 SECONDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE
COVERAGE SHRINKS ON FRIDAY WITH LESS THAN HALF OF THE ZONE COVERED.
TEMPTED TO END THE ADVISORY ON FRIDAY FOR THIS REASON. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT.
THE HIGHEST SEAS PER THE WAVE MODEL WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN WIND WAVES. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RAISE THE SPECTER OF FIRE WX
HEADLINES. A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AFTERNOON FOR
THE TRINITY FIRE WX ZONE. MODELS ARE HONING IN ON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE DRIFTING INTO W
SISKIYOU COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFR...HAVE DECIDED TO
HEADLINE THIS IN THE FWF PRODUCT...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
ESCALATE AFTER EVALUATING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRI FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SAT FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
428 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO
AREAS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
428 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO
AREAS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
428 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO
AREAS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
428 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO
AREAS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021128
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
428 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:27 AM PDT THURSDAY...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
STABLE. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAINS CONFINED TO
AREAS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY INLAND TOWARD SALINAS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL
GENERALLY ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF
ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST. AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL
STRATUS. NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021116
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
416 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021116
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
416 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021116
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
416 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING SET UP THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THE BAY AREA. IN
ADDITION...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL FORECAST MOSTLY VFR FOR THE
TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY BAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS
VCSH WAS INCLUDED. FOR MONTEREY BAY...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17ZISH. VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHOWER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:11 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND A TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 021031
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
331 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY ALTHOUGH
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. DECREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S
FROM FOUR CORNERS TO NORCAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY DURING SOME NIGHT
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE HIGH IS BRINGING ONE OF THESE NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORM PERIODS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEING GENERATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORTWAVE MODELS INDICATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TODAY FOR A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING WILL BRING A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS PUSH A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO NORCAL
TONIGHT WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP 1.5 INCHES. HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BUT WITH LACK OF HEATING AND DYNAMICS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND MORE LIKELY WILL SEE
ISOLATED SPRINKLES.

MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH STABILITY PROGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BOTH DAYS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A SYSTEM PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE DELTA INFLUENCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHILE ELSEWHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO COME IN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A LOW OFF THE COAST EDGES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AS
WELL.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

OUR CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS IS
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND
MIDWEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SIERRA
CREST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR
THE CENTRAL VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMPACTING PARTS OF TUOLUMNE, STANISLAUS, AND
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTIES INCLUDING NEAR THE VICINITY OF KSCK AND KMOD
TAF SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. THUNDESTORMS
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
TODAY.

ONSHORE WINDS FOR TAF SITES WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AND THEN
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER 20Z WITH WINDS 10-20
KTS FOR TAF SITES. DELTA WINDS WILL RANGE 15-25 KTS.  JBB
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 021031
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
331 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY ALTHOUGH
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. DECREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S
FROM FOUR CORNERS TO NORCAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND POSSIBLY DURING SOME NIGHT
TIME PERIODS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE HIGH IS BRINGING ONE OF THESE NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORM PERIODS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEING GENERATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHORTWAVE MODELS INDICATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TODAY FOR A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING WILL BRING A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS PUSH A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO NORCAL
TONIGHT WITH TPW VALUES FORECAST TO TOP 1.5 INCHES. HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD BUT WITH LACK OF HEATING AND DYNAMICS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND MORE LIKELY WILL SEE
ISOLATED SPRINKLES.

MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH STABILITY PROGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BOTH DAYS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A SYSTEM PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. A
MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP THE DELTA INFLUENCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHILE ELSEWHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO COME IN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A LOW OFF THE COAST EDGES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LIKELY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AS
WELL.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

OUR CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS IS
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND
MIDWEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SIERRA
CREST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR
THE CENTRAL VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE. SLIGHT COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMPACTING PARTS OF TUOLUMNE, STANISLAUS, AND
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTIES INCLUDING NEAR THE VICINITY OF KSCK AND KMOD
TAF SITES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. THUNDESTORMS
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
TODAY.

ONSHORE WINDS FOR TAF SITES WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AND THEN
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AFTER 20Z WITH WINDS 10-20
KTS FOR TAF SITES. DELTA WINDS WILL RANGE 15-25 KTS.  JBB
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR REDUCED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK SHIFTING INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND FRIDAY...

FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT WITH PARAMETERS NOT FAVORING
ANY LARGE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED UNSEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE AT 500 MB OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MODELS ADVECT THIS WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AZ TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS SOMEWHAT. ALSO...300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO
GYRATE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD PROVIDING MOST UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.

DATA ALSO SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS NEARLY EXCESSIVE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF AZ. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD RECIRCULATE OR REDISTRIBUTE SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...MEANING TOWARD
PHOENIX. THEREFORE...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND WARMER AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS TODAY...DESPITE
THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW GRADE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR REGION THE NEXT 2
DAYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE OUTFLOWS FROM
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BETTER CHANCE
OF AFTN STORMS.


SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF HARD TO
TIME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT
500 MB ALSO DECREASE INTO THE MINUS 6 DEG RANGE WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON. WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND MORE FAVORABLE SUPPORT
ALOFT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE RAISE A
BIT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS FORECAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY ONE PERTURBATION FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN AZ
GETS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF
PHOENIX. MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE
A ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST
ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.


THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE MONSOONISH AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS ALSO FORECAST
A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH A
COUPLE OF HARD TO TIME INVERTED TROFS BRUSHING THE MEXICAN BORDER.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUT
BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF EVEN OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
HIGH CIRRUS CIGS TO REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO MAINLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AT KIPL...AND TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE AT KBLH AS WELL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH HIGH MONSOON HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR REDUCED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK SHIFTING INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND FRIDAY...

FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT WITH PARAMETERS NOT FAVORING
ANY LARGE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED UNSEASONABLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 RANGE AT 500 MB OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MODELS ADVECT THIS WARM
AIR INTO CENTRAL AZ TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS SOMEWHAT. ALSO...300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO
GYRATE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD PROVIDING MOST UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
OVER THE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.

DATA ALSO SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS NEARLY EXCESSIVE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA...AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF AZ. LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD RECIRCULATE OR REDISTRIBUTE SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...MEANING TOWARD
PHOENIX. THEREFORE...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND WARMER AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS TODAY...DESPITE
THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOW GRADE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR REGION THE NEXT 2
DAYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE OUTFLOWS FROM
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BETTER CHANCE
OF AFTN STORMS.


SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

MODELS FORECAST THE 300/250 MB HIGH CENTERS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF HARD TO
TIME MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO AZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AT
500 MB ALSO DECREASE INTO THE MINUS 6 DEG RANGE WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON. WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND MORE FAVORABLE SUPPORT
ALOFT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL BE RAISE A
BIT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS FORECAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS
PERIOD...WITH ONLY ONE PERTURBATION FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ ABOUT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN AZ
GETS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEREFORE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF
PHOENIX. MID LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ALSO BECOME WESTERLY. THEREFORE
A ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST
ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 EAST OF PHOENIX.


THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE MONSOONISH AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS ALSO FORECAST
A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH A
COUPLE OF HARD TO TIME INVERTED TROFS BRUSHING THE MEXICAN BORDER.
THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUT
BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF EVEN OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
HIGH CIRRUS CIGS TO REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
JUST A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A TIME
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO MAINLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AT KIPL...AND TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE AT KBLH AS WELL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 021019
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
319 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ABATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING WORKING ON THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. GENERALLY DRY AND
COOLER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. DRY
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA...PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXITING ORANGE COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT AND THE LOS ANGELES
BASIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND JUST PROVING MAINLY A
TRACE OF RAIN. MEANWHILE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SKIRTING ALONG THE NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT FROM NEAR RIDGECREST
EAST INTO DEATH VALLEY AND THE LAS VEGAS BASIN. SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS DECKS ARE PERSISTING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AFFECTING MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE LOWER DESERTS.

TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AWAY FROM THE MONSOONAL PATTERN AND
BACK TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO SW CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION...WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. EVEN FOR FRIDAY...A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS COULD POPUP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND WE EXPECTING A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL BRINGING
IN PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME BRIEF
MOISTURE MAY SURGE INTO SW AZ AND SE CA AND SKIFF ACROSS OUR DESERTS
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG
TO THE SE INTO MEXICO KEEPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE SE
OF OUR REGION. TRANQUIL AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
020915Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1100 FT MSL AND
LOCAL VIS 4-6 SM IN BR CONTINUING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS
BETWEEN AOA 10000 FT MSL THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH
BASES 900-1200 FT MSL DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/06Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERT.
THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL BE NEAR 8000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 40K FT MSL.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VIS TO 3SM OR LESS IN RAIN. OTHERWISE...SCT-
BKN CLOUD LAYERS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI MORNING..

&&

.MARINE...
225 AM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 021005 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PD. SOME LOCAL
STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDS IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...02/300 AM...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FRI AND SAT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 020945
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AND CONSEQUENTLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR HAVE BEEN LIGHT. EVEN SO...BOTH BAKERSFIELD
AND FRESNO SET RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1ST. BAKERSFIELD ALSO SET A
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1ST...WHILE FRESNO MISSED
ITS RECORD BY ONLY ONE DEGREE.

                 BAKERSFIELD            FRESNO
                 JULY 1    OLD REC      JULY 1     OLD REC
RAINFALL         TRACE     0            0.03 IN    TRACE IN 1916
HI MIN           83        81 IN 2013   79         80 IN 1934

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FRIDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FLOOR AS FAR NORTH AS DELANO AND PORTERVILLE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF  THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND LIMITING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

AS WITH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE CLOUDS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FORECASTED VALUES WEDNESDAY /BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL/...LOWS WERE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 100 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951

KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 020945
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AND CONSEQUENTLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR HAVE BEEN LIGHT. EVEN SO...BOTH BAKERSFIELD
AND FRESNO SET RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1ST. BAKERSFIELD ALSO SET A
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1ST...WHILE FRESNO MISSED
ITS RECORD BY ONLY ONE DEGREE.

                 BAKERSFIELD            FRESNO
                 JULY 1    OLD REC      JULY 1     OLD REC
RAINFALL         TRACE     0            0.03 IN    TRACE IN 1916
HI MIN           83        81 IN 2013   79         80 IN 1934

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FRIDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FLOOR AS FAR NORTH AS DELANO AND PORTERVILLE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF  THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND LIMITING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

AS WITH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE CLOUDS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FORECASTED VALUES WEDNESDAY /BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL/...LOWS WERE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 100 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951

KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 020945
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CONVECTION CONTINUED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MORNING. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AND CONSEQUENTLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR HAVE BEEN LIGHT. EVEN SO...BOTH BAKERSFIELD
AND FRESNO SET RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1ST. BAKERSFIELD ALSO SET A
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 1ST...WHILE FRESNO MISSED
ITS RECORD BY ONLY ONE DEGREE.

                 BAKERSFIELD            FRESNO
                 JULY 1    OLD REC      JULY 1     OLD REC
RAINFALL         TRACE     0            0.03 IN    TRACE IN 1916
HI MIN           83        81 IN 2013   79         80 IN 1934

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FRIDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FLOOR AS FAR NORTH AS DELANO AND PORTERVILLE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF  THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION AND LIMITING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

AS WITH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE CLOUDS KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FORECASTED VALUES WEDNESDAY /BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL/...LOWS WERE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT WARM LOWS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 100 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901
KFAT 07-04      112:1889     79:1955     81:2001     51:1951

KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
KBFL 07-04      114:1931     82:1955     81:2001     49:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 020936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2AM, THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 51 DEGREES...BALMY BY NEVADA STANDARDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ACTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DELAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FROM PERSHING THROUGH MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY AS A RESULT AND HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATED A FEW VORTICITY IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SIERRA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE WITH EXTERNAL
FORCING MAY PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD KEEP UPDATED
ON THE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING,
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING, AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE
MORE VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLOW DRYING BEGINS.
GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVING CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MORE S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE MONDAY, BUT IT APPEARS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEWER THAN
WHAT WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE DRYING TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
STILL SHOW A BIT OF A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ZEPHYR IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE AREAS AROUND TAHOE WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EC IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SLOWING AND MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE THREAT FOR
MORE ISOLATED TSTORMS. WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE DRYING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE
FOR IMPACT 40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND
20-25 PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT-SUN WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 020936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2AM, THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 51 DEGREES...BALMY BY NEVADA STANDARDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ACTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DELAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FROM PERSHING THROUGH MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY AS A RESULT AND HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATED A FEW VORTICITY IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SIERRA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE WITH EXTERNAL
FORCING MAY PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD KEEP UPDATED
ON THE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING,
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING, AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE
MORE VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLOW DRYING BEGINS.
GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVING CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MORE S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE MONDAY, BUT IT APPEARS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEWER THAN
WHAT WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE DRYING TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
STILL SHOW A BIT OF A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ZEPHYR IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE AREAS AROUND TAHOE WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EC IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SLOWING AND MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE THREAT FOR
MORE ISOLATED TSTORMS. WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE DRYING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE
FOR IMPACT 40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND
20-25 PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT-SUN WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020912
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS TODAY...THEN JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAKING A RETURN TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...ELONGATED RIDGE WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A WEAK LOW SPINS OFFSHORE.
NEAR THE SURFACE...GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THROUGH THIS MORNING...JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION HAS A
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...MODELS INDICATE
DECENT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD END FOR
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING PRETTY QUICK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
STILL POSSIBLY ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION ON THE 80% CHANCE OF NOTHING DEVELOPING). OTHERWISE
WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET ESTABLISH TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND MAYBE EEKING INTO SOME LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE SIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER H5 HEIGHTS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL END ANY THREAT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH A BIT MORE INLAND PENETRATION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST...AND
WILL PUSH THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE TO THE EAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

FORECAST-WISE...A RELATIVELY UNEXCITING FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY...PUSHING INTO THE
COASTAL EACH NIGHT/MORNING...WITH A GOOD DISSIPATION EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE WHIMS OF THE
MARINE LAYER...BUT SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020550
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. 200 TO
300 FOOT CIGS BEING REPORTED AT KMRY AND KHAF AT POST TIME. MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN ARE SHALLOW AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
PRESSING TOO FAR INLAND. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF SOME LOW CIGS AT KSFO BY MORNING. IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY BUT MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARDS SAN BENITO/SANTA CLARA COUNTIES. THE NAM MODEL
BRINGS IT INTO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. HAVE PUT SOME TEMPO -SHRA
FOR SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 16Z THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z TONIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR RETURN OF SOME 1000 FOOT CIGS BY 10Z. KEPT -SHRA
OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACTIVITY TO OUR SE. BEST
ESTIMATE IS LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD ALL BE GONE BY 18Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR KMRY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. IN ADDITION AN
AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BRING -SHRA AROUND SUNRISE THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:44 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER MONTEREY BAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020503
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...

CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020503
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...

CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020503
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...

CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020503
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE EVENING. EVENING PSR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE BUT
ALSO CONSIDERABLE CIN. HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THAT
CONTINUING WITH WESTWARD DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL PARE BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ZONE 24 AND POSSIBLY A
THIN STRIP NEAR MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO
IMPROVE A LOT. THUS ANTICIAPTE LOW GRADE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM MST/PDT...

CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AFTER 08Z. STORMS MAY GET AS CLOSE AS THE
MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THEM TO BE ONLY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN BY MIDDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA
WITHIN THOSE COUNTIES BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS66 KEKA 020458 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
958 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING TOWARDS
NORTHWEST CA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY SO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SOME LIGHTNING WITH THIS AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. MKK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 330 PM PDT...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST AS OF
21Z...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. STRATUS SHOULD
PULL BACK TO AT LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPANDING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO ADJACENT
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MANY
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S AND WELL INTO THE 100S F
AS OF 21Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S F.
AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES FOR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOING INTO THURSDAY...AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS TRINITY AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO
TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NW CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START OUT NEAR 0.75
INCHES OF H2O AND INCREASE TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES OF H2O BY
SATURDAY...NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION DRIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...THINK THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF WAVES
OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHEST OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOST NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THURSDAY...INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. STP

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL AND DEVELOP A
SADDLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT OFF
THE FEED TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS OVER THE CWA TO DROP
UNDER ONE INCH STARTING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE READILY
AVAILABLE BUT THE TRIGGER STILL LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION JUST NEAR OUR CWA BORDER INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAINED GHOST POPS. /KML

AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AGAIN COVERED
MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS MAY
MEANDER ONTO THE COAST PRODUCING SCT OCNL BKN CIGS. CLOUDS WILL
SURELY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL INLAND AND RIVER VALLEYS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR. TA

MARINE...LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE PERSISTING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND MAINTAIN
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WEEKEND A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE COAST AND BUST UP THE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CREATE SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTER PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE A PERSISTING SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON,
NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 020422
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
922 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNEXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE EVEN MORE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE TRIMMED
TO JUST INCLUDE THE FAR NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. I WILL TRIM THE
TIMING BACK TO 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL SINCE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES AND NOT AROUND 110 BUT WILL
STILL BE HOT.

THE DELTA BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO HELP BRING SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AS WELL.
THE MORNING SHOULD FEEL FAIRLY NICE WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABSENT THE
DELTA INFLUENCE.

THE OTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL OF DAYS. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HIGH IS OVER NEVADA
BRINGING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING NOT ONLY CLOUDS BUT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY MIGRATE
DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE TO SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT LOWER
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED PUSH OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH END
OF THE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD CLOVER ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE OUR FRIEND DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
-SHWRS OVERNIGHT THEN AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV
FTHLS AFT 20Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 020422
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
922 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNEXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE EVEN MORE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE TRIMMED
TO JUST INCLUDE THE FAR NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. I WILL TRIM THE
TIMING BACK TO 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL SINCE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES AND NOT AROUND 110 BUT WILL
STILL BE HOT.

THE DELTA BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO HELP BRING SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AS WELL.
THE MORNING SHOULD FEEL FAIRLY NICE WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABSENT THE
DELTA INFLUENCE.

THE OTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL OF DAYS. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HIGH IS OVER NEVADA
BRINGING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING NOT ONLY CLOUDS BUT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY MIGRATE
DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE TO SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT LOWER
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED PUSH OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH END
OF THE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD CLOVER ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE OUR FRIEND DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
-SHWRS OVERNIGHT THEN AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV
FTHLS AFT 20Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 020422
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
922 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNEXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE EVEN MORE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE TRIMMED
TO JUST INCLUDE THE FAR NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. I WILL TRIM THE
TIMING BACK TO 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL SINCE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES AND NOT AROUND 110 BUT WILL
STILL BE HOT.

THE DELTA BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO HELP BRING SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AS WELL.
THE MORNING SHOULD FEEL FAIRLY NICE WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABSENT THE
DELTA INFLUENCE.

THE OTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL OF DAYS. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HIGH IS OVER NEVADA
BRINGING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING NOT ONLY CLOUDS BUT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY MIGRATE
DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE TO SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT LOWER
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED PUSH OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH END
OF THE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD CLOVER ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE OUR FRIEND DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
-SHWRS OVERNIGHT THEN AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV
FTHLS AFT 20Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 020422
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
922 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY.
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNEXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE EVEN MORE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE TRIMMED
TO JUST INCLUDE THE FAR NORTH END OF THE VALLEY. I WILL TRIM THE
TIMING BACK TO 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL SINCE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES AND NOT AROUND 110 BUT WILL
STILL BE HOT.

THE DELTA BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO HELP BRING SOME
COOLER AIR FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AS WELL.
THE MORNING SHOULD FEEL FAIRLY NICE WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UP TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABSENT THE
DELTA INFLUENCE.

THE OTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL OF DAYS. THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HIGH IS OVER NEVADA
BRINGING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING NOT ONLY CLOUDS BUT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY MIGRATE
DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE TO SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT LOWER
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED PUSH OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH END
OF THE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD CLOVER ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE OUR FRIEND DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
-SHWRS OVERNIGHT THEN AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV
FTHLS AFT 20Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020354
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
854 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:54 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...IT HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING WEATHER DAY AROUND THE CWA. IN THE NORTH BAY...EAST
BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
90S WITH LIVERMORE REPORTING A HIGH OF 105 AND MORGAN HILL
REACHING 102. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WERE MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM WITH MONTEREY REACHING A HIGH OF
77...SANTA CRUZ 82 AND SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 74. THE OTHER WEATHER
PHENOMENA OF INTEREST WAS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION...A VORT
MAX...WHICH INTERACTED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN STATES WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
SHIFT THE POSITION OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE 1800Z NAM12 IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE ALSO
BEEN SUGGESTION CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY MORNING
THIS THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST AND
PORTION OF SAN BENITO COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 020345
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ABATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE. GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
STATE...PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING FROM
SE TO NW. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH
TODAY. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 1300
FT. THE PW REMAINED QUITE HIGH AT 1.78 INCH AND CONSIDERABLE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WAS INDICATED WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES...A K
INDEX OF 36...AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE RUNNING 3-5 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS...BUT WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING WERE UNDER 25 MPH.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED A STREAM OF CLOUDS AND
DISTURBANCES STRETCHING FROM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...ACROSS SOCAL
AND INTO NW MEXICO. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
THROUGH TONIGHT...CONTINUING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA FAVORED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z NAM GUIDANCE SWINGS MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE ESE TO SOUTH THU MORNING...AND BRINGS A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NVA NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL DRYING IS NOTED AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUN ON THU. AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...MORE HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP ON FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

DESPITE THE DRYING AND NVA INDICATED FOR THU...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
MOISTURE BELOW 800 MBS WILL BE SCOURED OUT INITIALLY. GIVEN FULL
HEATING OVER THE MTS AND LIGHT WINDS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL BE SLOW MOVERS IF THEY MATERIALIZE. FOR
NOW...MODELS INDICATE THE RISK FOR HEAVY CONVECTION IS SMALL...BUT
THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE MTS. BASED ON THE
00Z NAM GUIDANCE...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL
BE OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTS.

THE MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH HAS CONTROLLED THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND SINK SE INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC PUSHES
EAST. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH ON WED...AND
SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COMPLETELY
CHOKING OFF ANY MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA. THERE IS FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO SEASONAL AND DRY
WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WEST OF THE MTS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 020300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 10Z. CLOUDS BASES WILL BE MIXED
THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY...WITH FEW-BKN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 600 AND 1100
FT MSL NEAR THE COAST...AND FEW-BKN AOA 15000 FOR ALL AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE THAT KSAN AND KCRQ WILL SEE CIG
IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 16Z AT KSNA. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE COAST
BY 16Z...LEAVING FEW-SCT AOA 20000 FT MSL AND LIGHT SEA BREEZE WINDS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 03Z
FRIDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
18Z THURSDAY TO 01Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND REDUCED VIS TO 3SM
OR LESS IN AREAS OF RAIN. OTHERWISE...FEW TO BKN AOA 15000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



000
FXUS65 KREV 020342
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
840 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER SCENIC POST-STORM SUNSET OUT THE WINDOW THIS EVENING. TODAY
WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY, JUST IN DIFFERENT SPOTS - WITH
MARKLEEVILLE AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AREA SEEING TORRENTIAL RAINS
AND SOME MUDSLIDES. INSTABILITY WAS IMPRESSIVE ON THE 0Z RENO
SOUNDING WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2300 DEPENDING ON HOW YOU
MEASURE IT.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR MAINLY FROM CENTRAL NEVADA
OVER INTO MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS
CONGEALED INTO A LARGE MASS OF RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS OFF TO THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE, AND IT`S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THESE CELLS COULD REACH THE SIERRA. AM GOING TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF A MARKLEEVILLE
TO GABBS LINE AS GUIDANCE SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING
TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COUPLED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. IN GENERAL LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY TOMORROW WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE. ONE NOTE - MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD HELP GENERATE
CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020340 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES...COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. ESRL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWING VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
THE 750 MB LEVEL ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES COULD HAPPEN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...
00Z MODEL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS WELL AS
ALL OF SLO COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN FACT 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING
MU CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT NOTED IN THE CROSS SECTIONS
WARRANTS THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EVENING UPDATE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALL OF SLO COUNTY.
CERTAINLY NOT A SURE THING...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRYING TREND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THAN MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES P645/670.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020340 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES...COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...
AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY. ESRL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWING VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM
THE 750 MB LEVEL ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES COULD HAPPEN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...
00Z MODEL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FOCUSING BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS WELL AS
ALL OF SLO COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN FACT 00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING
MU CAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT NOTED IN THE CROSS SECTIONS
WARRANTS THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EVENING UPDATE
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALL OF SLO COUNTY.
CERTAINLY NOT A SURE THING...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRYING TREND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THAN MOST OF THIS
WEEK. THIS COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
MORE TYPICAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES P645/670.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 012356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
456 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... CALIFORNIA IS
BETWEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 125% OF NORMAL
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO 1.4 IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY... TO AROUND 1.8 OFF OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
THE MOST EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY BASED AT AROUND 15000 FT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOLOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AROUND IT AND TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
AND WEST FLANK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE. KMUX RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT
BAND OF RETURNS AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM 15000 FT OR MORE AND MAY ONLY BE
RESULTING IN VIRGA. THUS FAR... ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BENEATH THESE RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND AND
SANTA CLARA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND... DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION... COULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH OVER THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A MIXED BAG... WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND A MUCH SMALLER
PORTION AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER TODAY. THE WARMEST AREA WAS IN AND
AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY INTERIOR... WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 3PM. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AND
THEN GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

DRP

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA... EAST BAY AREA
             AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY TIL 9 PM.
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 012356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
456 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... CALIFORNIA IS
BETWEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 125% OF NORMAL
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO 1.4 IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY... TO AROUND 1.8 OFF OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
THE MOST EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY BASED AT AROUND 15000 FT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOLOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AROUND IT AND TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
AND WEST FLANK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE. KMUX RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT
BAND OF RETURNS AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM 15000 FT OR MORE AND MAY ONLY BE
RESULTING IN VIRGA. THUS FAR... ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BENEATH THESE RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND AND
SANTA CLARA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND... DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION... COULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH OVER THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A MIXED BAG... WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND A MUCH SMALLER
PORTION AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER TODAY. THE WARMEST AREA WAS IN AND
AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY INTERIOR... WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 3PM. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AND
THEN GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

DRP

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE ROTATING OFFSHORE OVER MONTEREY COUNTY
AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. HARD TO GET A GAGE ON THE MARINE LAYER BUT IT
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
RETURN BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS AT BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY MORNING CIGS WILL MIX OUT
BY 16-17Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SEABREEZE. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS
RETURNING BY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
EVENING THEN SOME LOW STRATUS TO PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA... EAST BAY AREA
             AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY TIL 9 PM.
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012350 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012332
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...

AT 2300Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 650 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FROM 10-14Z...BUT THE
FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND RANDOM DUE
TO THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KPMD OR KWJF THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012323 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
423 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012323 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
423 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012323 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
423 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012323 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
423 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012306
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
406 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY...WITH THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE YET.
CONVECTION THAT MOVED WEST/NORTHWEST OUT OF ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND RADAR...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM WESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY. THIS HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-8 DEGREES LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF BREAK AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
PROJECTED APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF
BAJA.

MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW OFF OF BAJA NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE HIGH SIERRA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS
THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND THE WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE AREA...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEHIND US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HOTTEST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 012230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST AS OF
21Z...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. STRATUS SHOULD
PULL BACK TO AT LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPANDING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO ADJACENT
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MANY
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S AND WELL INTO THE 100S F
AS OF 21Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S F.
AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES FOR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOING INTO THURSDAY...AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS TRINITY AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO
TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NW CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START OUT NEAR 0.75
INCHES OF H2O AND INCREASE TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES OF H2O BY
SATURDAY...NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION DRIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...THINK THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF WAVES
OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHEST OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOST NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THURSDAY...INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL AND DEVELOP A
SADDLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT OFF
THE FEED TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS OVER THE CWA TO DROP
UNDER ONE INCH STARTING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE READILY
AVAILABLE BUT THE TRIGGER STILL LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION JUST NEAR OUR CWA BORDER INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAINED GHOST POPS. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AGAIN COVERED
MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS MAY
MEANDER ONTO THE COAST PRODUCING SCT OCNL BKN CIGS. CLOUDS WILL
SURELY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL INLAND AND RIVER VALLEYS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR. TA

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE PERSISTING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND MAINTAIN
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WEEKEND A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE COAST AND BUST UP THE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CREATE SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTER PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE A PERSISTING SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON,
NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 012230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST AS OF
21Z...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. STRATUS SHOULD
PULL BACK TO AT LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPANDING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO ADJACENT
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MANY
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S AND WELL INTO THE 100S F
AS OF 21Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S F.
AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES FOR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOING INTO THURSDAY...AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS TRINITY AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO
TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NW CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START OUT NEAR 0.75
INCHES OF H2O AND INCREASE TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES OF H2O BY
SATURDAY...NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION DRIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...THINK THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF WAVES
OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHEST OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOST NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THURSDAY...INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL AND DEVELOP A
SADDLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT OFF
THE FEED TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS OVER THE CWA TO DROP
UNDER ONE INCH STARTING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE READILY
AVAILABLE BUT THE TRIGGER STILL LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION JUST NEAR OUR CWA BORDER INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAINED GHOST POPS. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AGAIN COVERED
MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS MAY
MEANDER ONTO THE COAST PRODUCING SCT OCNL BKN CIGS. CLOUDS WILL
SURELY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL INLAND AND RIVER VALLEYS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR. TA

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE PERSISTING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND MAINTAIN
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WEEKEND A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE COAST AND BUST UP THE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CREATE SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTER PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE A PERSISTING SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON,
NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 012230
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST AS OF
21Z...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY. STRATUS SHOULD
PULL BACK TO AT LEAST THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPANDING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO ADJACENT
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MANY
LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S AND WELL INTO THE 100S F
AS OF 21Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S F.
AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES FOR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOING INTO THURSDAY...AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS TRINITY AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
LOCATIONS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO
TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NW CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START OUT NEAR 0.75
INCHES OF H2O AND INCREASE TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES OF H2O BY
SATURDAY...NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION DRIFTING WEST
TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...THINK THAT IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
FIRE WX CONCERNS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF WAVES
OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHEST OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOST NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THURSDAY...INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD CAUSING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL AND DEVELOP A
SADDLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT OFF
THE FEED TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS OVER THE CWA TO DROP
UNDER ONE INCH STARTING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE READILY
AVAILABLE BUT THE TRIGGER STILL LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION JUST NEAR OUR CWA BORDER INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAINED GHOST POPS. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT/MORNING COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AGAIN COVERED
MUCH OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. AREAS OF STRATUS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS MAY
MEANDER ONTO THE COAST PRODUCING SCT OCNL BKN CIGS. CLOUDS WILL
SURELY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL INLAND AND RIVER VALLEYS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR. TA

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE PERSISTING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND MAINTAIN
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WEEKEND A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE COAST AND BUST UP THE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CREATE SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTER PERIOD NORTHERLY WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE A PERSISTING SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON,
NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 012202
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
302 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... CALIFORNIA IS
BETWEEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITAIBLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 125% OF NORMAL
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO 1.4 IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY... TO AROUND 1.8 OFF OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
THE MOST EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY BASED AT AROUND 15000 FT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOLOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AROUND IT AND TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
AND WEST FLANK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE. KMUX RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT
BAND OF RETURNS AROUND THE CENTER OF THI FEATURE HOWEVER MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM 15000 FT OR MORE AND MAY ONLY BE
RESULTING IN VIRGA. THUS FAR... ONLY A FEW HUNDRETH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BENEATH THESE RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
PROPATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND AND
SANTA CLARA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND... DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION... COULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH OVER THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A MIXED BAG... WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND A MUCH SMALLER
PORTION AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER TODAY. THE WARMEST AREA WAS IN AND
AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY INTERIOR... WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 3PM. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AND
THEN GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

DRP

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:22 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA... EAST BAY AREA
             AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 012202
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
302 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... CALIFORNIA IS
BETWEEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITAIBLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 125% OF NORMAL
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO 1.4 IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY... TO AROUND 1.8 OFF OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
THE MOST EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY BASED AT AROUND 15000 FT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOLOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AROUND IT AND TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
AND WEST FLANK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE. KMUX RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT
BAND OF RETURNS AROUND THE CENTER OF THI FEATURE HOWEVER MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM 15000 FT OR MORE AND MAY ONLY BE
RESULTING IN VIRGA. THUS FAR... ONLY A FEW HUNDRETH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BENEATH THESE RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
PROPATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND AND
SANTA CLARA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND... DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION... COULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH OVER THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A MIXED BAG... WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND A MUCH SMALLER
PORTION AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER TODAY. THE WARMEST AREA WAS IN AND
AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY INTERIOR... WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 3PM. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AND
THEN GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

DRP

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:22 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA... EAST BAY AREA
             AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 012202
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
302 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... CALIFORNIA IS
BETWEEEN A 595DM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
581DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MONSOONAL PATTERN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITAIBLE WATER VALUES OF BETWEEN 125% OF NORMAL
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY TO 1.4 IN SOUTHERN
MONTEREY COUNTY... TO AROUND 1.8 OFF OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
THE MOST EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE OF THIS ABUNDANCE OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY BASED AT AROUND 15000 FT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MESOLOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS INCREASED
INSTABILITY AROUND IT AND TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
AND WEST FLANK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE. KMUX RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT
BAND OF RETURNS AROUND THE CENTER OF THI FEATURE HOWEVER MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM 15000 FT OR MORE AND MAY ONLY BE
RESULTING IN VIRGA. THUS FAR... ONLY A FEW HUNDRETH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BENEATH THESE RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
PROPATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND AND
SANTA CLARA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND... DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION... COULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY
MORNING HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH OVER THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A MIXED BAG... WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND A MUCH SMALLER
PORTION AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER TODAY. THE WARMEST AREA WAS IN AND
AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY INTERIOR... WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 3PM. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF SEVERAL MORE DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AND
THEN GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

DRP

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:22 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON THURSDAY
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA... EAST BAY AREA
             AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 012159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A BIT LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT.
STILL...THERE IS AROUND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...THUNDER
CURRENTLY NOT MENTIONED IN THE AREA TAFS. GUSTY WIND SHIFTS AND TSRA
WILL NEED TO BE ADDED AS AMENDMENTS SHOULD STORMS THREATEN. LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION REACH THE DESERTS TIL AT LEAST 03Z AND IT
MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT. CIGS TO STAY AOA 8K FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNLESS VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER OVER SERN CA HAS
DISSIPATED BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AGAIN WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ISOLD COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER OR SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
UNTIL CONVECTION STARTS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRFIELDS. OVERALL
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL DECKS THIS EVENING WITH A CLEARING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC TODAY...BUT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART AT KBLH NEXT 24
HOURS...MAYBE SWINGING TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS MAY BE ELEVATED AT TIMES TONIGHT...OVER 14KT. EXPECT
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL MOSTLY AOB 12KT...BUT MAY SWING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING A FAIRLY SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT OF A
WORKED-OVER AND BRIEFLY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER THROUGH THE 2 PM MST HOUR THE MOGOLLON RIM WAS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE FIRST ACTIVITY OF THE AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF
TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON PAR WITH READINGS FROM
YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE THIN CIRRUS LAYER HOLDING OVER MANY AZ
DESERT ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW ALOFT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS...OUTFLOWS AND
EVENTUAL STORM BLOW-OFF TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING. WV/IR
LOOPS STILL SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CIRCULATION PERSISTING SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONFLUENT FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. STILL A RATHER MOISTURE-RICH POOL
RUNNING FROM CENTRAL AZ WESTWARD...WITH GPS IPW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON RUNNING 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER FROM PHOENIX THROUGH YUMA AND
INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

BOTH HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS AM AND MIDDAY INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL ON THE AM RADAR ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER...AND REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. STORM
INITIATION IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SE AZ CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER START ACROSS NORTHERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
LINGERING MODEST INSTABILITY AND STILL ELEVATED STEERING FLOW IN THE
PROFILE...STORMS AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY OF OUTFLOW
INTRUSIONS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. SAVE FOR AN
ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER DEBRIS CLOUDS...STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES LOOKS RATHER MUTED FOR THIS EVENING. NOT
MUTED ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUB-WEATHER GENERATING POPS...BUT POPS NOT
MUCH ABOVE 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN AZ DESERTS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOWER STORM MOTION INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
SOMEWHAT. GIVING STORMS ARE ORIENTATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA TO
PICK-UP DUST...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST ALONG I8 AND I10
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DUST WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO LOFT IF OUTFLOWS PRESENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY THINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL RESPOND IN KIND ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND NEAR 110F DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN NATURE...THE CHANCE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAYTIME REDUCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A BIT LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY A BIT.
STILL...THERE IS AROUND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE DESERTS TONIGHT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...THUNDER
CURRENTLY NOT MENTIONED IN THE AREA TAFS. GUSTY WIND SHIFTS AND TSRA
WILL NEED TO BE ADDED AS AMENDMENTS SHOULD STORMS THREATEN. LIKELY
WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION REACH THE DESERTS TIL AT LEAST 03Z AND IT
MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT. CIGS TO STAY AOA 8K FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNLESS VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER OVER SERN CA HAS
DISSIPATED BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP AGAIN WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ISOLD COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER OR SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
UNTIL CONVECTION STARTS TO THREATEN ONE OF THE AIRFIELDS. OVERALL
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID/UPPER LEVEL DECKS THIS EVENING WITH A CLEARING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT ERRATIC TODAY...BUT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART AT KBLH NEXT 24
HOURS...MAYBE SWINGING TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS MAY BE ELEVATED AT TIMES TONIGHT...OVER 14KT. EXPECT
WINDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL MOSTLY AOB 12KT...BUT MAY SWING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH BASICALLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE INTO THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT BALLPARK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. THIS WILL TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL DESERTS AND AREAS EASTWARD. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE HOTTER
WESTERN DESERTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KREV 012158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 012158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KSTO 012136
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
236 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
DELTA BREEZE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK IN ACROSS SOLANO COUNTY AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUDS PERSIST...AREAS UNDER
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT. AREAS IN WARNING WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO GOING
WARNING. OF OTHER NOTE TODAY...SIERRA SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF TUOLUMNE COUNTY SO FAR. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE NEAR THE
CREST.

RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS
OCCURS. A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER MAY MAKE IT DOWN
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT CANNOT RULE IT
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DELTA BREEZE FOR INFLUENCED AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-111 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARNING AREA
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. 90S LIKELY FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LOW 100S FOR NORTHERN VALLEY.
READINGS SATURDAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FURTHER FROM FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT OR TONIGHT. EVEN
WITH COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV FTHLS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA
LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 012136
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
236 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
DELTA BREEZE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK IN ACROSS SOLANO COUNTY AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUDS PERSIST...AREAS UNDER
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT. AREAS IN WARNING WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO GOING
WARNING. OF OTHER NOTE TODAY...SIERRA SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF TUOLUMNE COUNTY SO FAR. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE NEAR THE
CREST.

RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS
OCCURS. A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER MAY MAKE IT DOWN
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT CANNOT RULE IT
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DELTA BREEZE FOR INFLUENCED AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-111 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARNING AREA
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. 90S LIKELY FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LOW 100S FOR NORTHERN VALLEY.
READINGS SATURDAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FURTHER FROM FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT OR TONIGHT. EVEN
WITH COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV FTHLS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA
LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 012136
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
236 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
DELTA BREEZE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK IN ACROSS SOLANO COUNTY AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUDS PERSIST...AREAS UNDER
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT. AREAS IN WARNING WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO GOING
WARNING. OF OTHER NOTE TODAY...SIERRA SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF TUOLUMNE COUNTY SO FAR. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE NEAR THE
CREST.

RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS
OCCURS. A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER MAY MAKE IT DOWN
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT CANNOT RULE IT
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DELTA BREEZE FOR INFLUENCED AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-111 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARNING AREA
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. 90S LIKELY FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LOW 100S FOR NORTHERN VALLEY.
READINGS SATURDAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FURTHER FROM FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT OR TONIGHT. EVEN
WITH COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV FTHLS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA
LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 012136
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
236 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
DELTA BREEZE ALSO BEGINNING TO KICK IN ACROSS SOLANO COUNTY AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUDS PERSIST...AREAS UNDER
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT. AREAS IN WARNING WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO GOING
WARNING. OF OTHER NOTE TODAY...SIERRA SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF TUOLUMNE COUNTY SO FAR. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE NEAR THE
CREST.

RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS
OCCURS. A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER MAY MAKE IT DOWN
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING NOT OVERLY HIGH BUT CANNOT RULE IT
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DELTA BREEZE FOR INFLUENCED AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100-111 DEGREE RANGE FOR WARNING AREA
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE IN THE VALLEY. 90S LIKELY FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND LOW 100S FOR NORTHERN VALLEY.
READINGS SATURDAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FURTHER FROM FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE MILD DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT OR TONIGHT. EVEN
WITH COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

INTERIOR NORCAL SANDWICHED BETWEEN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW AND GREAT
BASIN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC TRIES TO PROGRESS
UPPER LOW INLAND MIDWEEK, WHILE GFS/GEM KEEP IT QUASISTATIONARY.
MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN SUNDAY. LESS
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, 80S FOR THE DELTA AND FOOTHILLS, AND 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SELY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG CONTS. VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24
HRS. AFTN DNSTY ALT GTR THAN 3500 FT IN PTNS NRN SAC VLY. ISOLD
AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTM POSS OMTNS AND SIERNEV FTHLS.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA
LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT THE APPROACH OF
A LOW SYSTEM BY SATURDAY WILL DEEPEN THE OVERNIGHT MARINE LAYER AND
COOL COASTAL AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE SO FAR IN
OUR AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SRN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND JUST CLIPPING THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF SLO
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST RANDOM SPRINKLES WITH NO REPORTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN YET. TEMPS RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
WITH CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES AT THE COAST TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES INLAND. THE WINNER IS
SADDLEBACK BUTTE WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MOISTURE TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER MODELS SHOW ONLY ONE
LAST PUSH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM SRN AZ BEFORE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO DRY
OUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL POPS WERE ADDED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT (AND LIKELY LAST) PUSH, THOUGH AGAIN IT`S
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE A FEW DROPS AND NOT ACTUALLY
MEASURE. MODELS SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT SO
THERE`S A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED STORM TONIGHT WITH THAT
MOISTURE, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY
JUST A LOT CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

AS MENTIONED, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM 1.5-2" CURRENTLY TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH SUNNIER WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND MOST OF WHAT WAS LOST TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON`T GAIN AS MUCH GROUND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WEATHER RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS AS A TROF SETS UP ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4
CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BY MID WEEK THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE TROF DEEPENING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXPANDING
WEST AGAIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THIS IS A REVERSAL OF
ROLES FROM YESTERDAY WHEN THE EC WAS THE MUCH WARMER MODEL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, THERE`S NO INDICATION OF
MONSOON FLOW RETURNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 012039
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
139 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH WARM WEATHER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY AND MORE
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN
OF COASTAL/VALLEY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NW NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT.

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. RECENT HIGH-RES MODELS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS NEAR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL HELP GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH...FAST STORM SPEED WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERT TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CREATE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
SWITCH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL START
TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW CA...AND MAINLY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW
ALOFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST...CREATING SEASONAL DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
012008Z...BKN-OVC CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS MOVING OFF TO THE WEST BY 2200
UTC...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH THE 02/0100 UTC TIME-PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE LOWER DESERTS EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. THUNDERSTORM CB TOPS TO 40000-45000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS. LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN. LESSENING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS 02/0100-1800 UTC. CHANCE THAT
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG...WITH BASES 400-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000
FT MSL...COULD FORM WITHIN 10-15 SM OF THE COAST DURING THE 02/0900-
1500 UTC TIME-PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BECOMING SCT-FEW IN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
FROM EAST TO WEST WITH PRIMARILY UNRESTRICTED VIS DURING THAT TIME-
PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER
02/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
108 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
108 PM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE BEACHES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXPECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BLANKET THE REGION WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH BACK IN THIS EVENING
REACHING INLAND TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011757
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1755Z...

AT 1700Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 800 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL SITES
TONIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FROM 10-
14Z...BUT THE FORMATION OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY BE SPOTTY
AND RANDOM DUE TO MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KWJF AND KPMD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER
SITES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS VERY SLIM.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS TONIGHT FROM 10-14Z. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) OF A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011646
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
946 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011646
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
946 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
             THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KSGX 011638
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM
WEATHER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY AND MORE SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF
COASTAL/VALLEY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NW NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COAST. THE 01/1200
UTC KNKX SOUNDING CALCULATED A RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.79
INCHES...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.58 INCHES.

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS
NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HELP GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH...FAST STORM SPEED WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
SWITCH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL START
TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW CA...AND MAINLY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW
ALOFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST...CREATING SEASONAL DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011600Z...OVC-BKN CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 2000 UTC...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY
OCCURRING 1600-1900 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING
OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS DURING THE 2000-02/0000 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE THE DESERTS EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. THUNDERSTORM CB TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS. LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST CHANCE THAT
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG...WITH BASES 400-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000
FT MSL...COULD FORM DURING THE 02/0900-1400 UTC TIME-PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE. CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-SCT IN THE
10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER
02/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE BEACHES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011638
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM
WEATHER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY AND MORE SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF
COASTAL/VALLEY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NW NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COAST. THE 01/1200
UTC KNKX SOUNDING CALCULATED A RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.79
INCHES...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.58 INCHES.

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS
NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HELP GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH...FAST STORM SPEED WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
SWITCH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL START
TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW CA...AND MAINLY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW
ALOFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST...CREATING SEASONAL DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011600Z...OVC-BKN CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 2000 UTC...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY
OCCURRING 1600-1900 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING
OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS DURING THE 2000-02/0000 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE THE DESERTS EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. THUNDERSTORM CB TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS. LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST CHANCE THAT
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG...WITH BASES 400-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000
FT MSL...COULD FORM DURING THE 02/0900-1400 UTC TIME-PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE. CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-SCT IN THE
10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER
02/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE BEACHES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011638
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM
WEATHER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY AND MORE SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF
COASTAL/VALLEY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NW NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COAST. THE 01/1200
UTC KNKX SOUNDING CALCULATED A RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.79
INCHES...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.58 INCHES.

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS
NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HELP GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH...FAST STORM SPEED WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
SWITCH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL START
TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW CA...AND MAINLY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW
ALOFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST...CREATING SEASONAL DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011600Z...OVC-BKN CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 2000 UTC...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY
OCCURRING 1600-1900 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING
OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS DURING THE 2000-02/0000 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE THE DESERTS EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. THUNDERSTORM CB TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS. LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST CHANCE THAT
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG...WITH BASES 400-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000
FT MSL...COULD FORM DURING THE 02/0900-1400 UTC TIME-PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE. CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-SCT IN THE
10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER
02/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE BEACHES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011638
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM
WEATHER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY AND MORE SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN OF
COASTAL/VALLEY NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NW NEW MEXICO...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO. COMPOSITE
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COAST. THE 01/1200
UTC KNKX SOUNDING CALCULATED A RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.79
INCHES...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.58 INCHES.

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS
NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HELP GENERATE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH...FAST STORM SPEED WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
SWITCH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE TO MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL START
TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW CA...AND MAINLY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW
ALOFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST...CREATING SEASONAL DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011600Z...OVC-BKN CLOUD DECKS WITHIN THE 10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER
AND SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 2000 UTC...WITH THE PEAK ACTIVITY
OCCURRING 1600-1900 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING
OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS DURING THE 2000-02/0000 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE THE DESERTS EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. THUNDERSTORM CB TOPS TO 30000 FT MSL.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG DOWNDRAFT
WINDS. LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST CHANCE THAT
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG...WITH BASES 400-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000
FT MSL...COULD FORM DURING THE 02/0900-1400 UTC TIME-PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE. CLOUDS BECOMING BKN-SCT IN THE
10000-30000 FT MSL LAYER FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THAT TIME-PERIOD.

WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL PRODUCE MOD-STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER
02/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OVER THE BEACHES FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011624
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
SHOWER ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DECENT MONSOON SURGE IN PROGRESS WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.5" OVER OUR AREA AND AS HIGH AS 2" NEAR THE SALTON
SEA ACCORDING TO ESRL GPS SENSORS. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
VERY HUMID, BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE MTNS AND AV LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE COAST/VALLEY CONVECTION AND JUST
LEFT IN SMALL POPS FOR POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. VERY
UNLIKELY WE`LL SEE ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AS
IT`S VERY DRY BELOW 10000` BUT COULD SEE A FEW DROPS AT TIMES.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
THOUGH THE EXTRA HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET SOME OF THAT IN TERMS OF HOW
IT FEELS OUT THERE. WE GOT OFF TO A FAST START WITH THE WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN ABOUT 10
FROM YESTERDAY.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LITTLE BURST OF MOISTURE SO
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY
THU FOR ALL AREAS. AGAIN PROBABLY A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SCENARIO
AT BEST BUT FAR INTERIOR AREAS MAY BE AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WOULD BE MUCH FARTHER
EAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THU EXPECTED TO PUSH TEMPS WARMER
IN MOST AREAS DESPITE THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE BEING SOMEWHAT COOLER.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/830 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCAL SCA CONDITIONS AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A SCA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG AND PARALLEL TO I-10
FROM ABOUT QUARTZSITE ALL THE WAY TO THE CWA BORDER AT JTNP AND NEAR
THERMAL/PALM SPRINGS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AM SHOWS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS AND STORM CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN AZ
AND NEARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA...WITH SOME THINNING DEBRIS
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ. ML/UL UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE
300/250MB HIGH CENTERS NOW PLOTTED OVER NORTHERN NM...TRANSITION
FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH ITS REPOSITIONING.

MORNING MODEL STREAMLINE FCSTS SHOW REMNANT MCV/300 MB INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH FAIRLY CONFLUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 1.93 INCH READINGS ON THIS
MORNING`S KPSR BALLOON IS AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...BUT LIKELY
CONTAMINATED/WATER WEIGHTED AS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A
EVEN ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO REMAINED OVER THE AREA. 500-300MB WINDS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE...WITH 35-40KTS...BUT ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DROP
CAPES AT OR BELOW 800 J/KG READINGS BY THE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM WE`LL GET TODAY TO HELP SUPPORT AND
EVEN FIRE CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HI-RES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY OF INTEREST GNLY ON
THE FCST AREA PERIPHERY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE AND ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 310 AM MST/PDT/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A RATHER STRONG INVERTED
TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG
JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN THE 200-300MB
LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AOA
1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIETER. THE
LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL DROP INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-600 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO
TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE EARLY WEEK START...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHIFT IN THE
UPPER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRENDS DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALONG AND PARALLEL TO I-10
FROM ABOUT QUARTZSITE ALL THE WAY TO THE CWA BORDER AT JTNP AND NEAR
THERMAL/PALM SPRINGS THIS MORNING. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AM SHOWS THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS AND STORM CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN AZ
AND NEARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA...WITH SOME THINNING DEBRIS
FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ. ML/UL UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE
300/250MB HIGH CENTERS NOW PLOTTED OVER NORTHERN NM...TRANSITION
FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH ITS REPOSITIONING.

MORNING MODEL STREAMLINE FCSTS SHOW REMNANT MCV/300 MB INVERTED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AZ...WITH FAIRLY CONFLUENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 1.93 INCH READINGS ON THIS
MORNING`S KPSR BALLOON IS AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...BUT LIKELY
CONTAMINATED/WATER WEIGHTED AS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A
EVEN ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO REMAINED OVER THE AREA. 500-300MB WINDS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE...WITH 35-40KTS...BUT ARE FCST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE GET THROUGH THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DROP
CAPES AT OR BELOW 800 J/KG READINGS BY THE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WARM WE`LL GET TODAY TO HELP SUPPORT AND
EVEN FIRE CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HI-RES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY OF INTEREST GNLY ON
THE FCST AREA PERIPHERY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE AND ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 310 AM MST/PDT/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A RATHER STRONG INVERTED
TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG
JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN THE 200-300MB
LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES AOA
1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT QUIETER. THE
LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL DROP INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-600 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO
TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS
ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS
THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS
AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80 INCH RANGE. THUS...A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING QUITE STRONG.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW-
LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS66 KSTO 011610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SIERRA SHOWERS DECREASING NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT PROVIDED LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH MORNING LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS OF 9 AM, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE INTO THE
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND REDDING AND RED BLUFF ALREADY
INTO THE 90S. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK WITH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE 110-115 DEGREE
RANGE AND THE REST OF THE VALLEY WELL INTO THE 100S. 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOOKS GOOD
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES.

LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST. AS MENTIONED BY EARLY SHIFTS, MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE.  CEO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA TO NORCAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS RIDGE
WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLERS OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL AIRMASS WARMS A BIT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION SHOULD BE THE DELTA INFLUENCED
AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DELTA BREEZE AND A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOLING. MODELS ONLY
SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE
SOUTHWARD SO THIS LOOKS LIKE ONLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AREA TODAY. MAIN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ADD AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE COASTAL RANGE AND SHASTA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOLING EFFECT ELSEWHERE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH AT OVER AN INCH
AND A HALF TPW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
INCLUDED A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEY AS
BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY COULD BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AND ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. EVEN WITH COOLING
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORCAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 90S. THE THREAT OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO END AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES. ISOLD
TSTMS OVER SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011610
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
910 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SIERRA SHOWERS DECREASING NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT PROVIDED LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH MORNING LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS OF 9 AM, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE INTO THE
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND REDDING AND RED BLUFF ALREADY
INTO THE 90S. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE WEEK WITH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY TOPPING OUT IN THE 110-115 DEGREE
RANGE AND THE REST OF THE VALLEY WELL INTO THE 100S. 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GOING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOOKS GOOD
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES.

LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST. AS MENTIONED BY EARLY SHIFTS, MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE.  CEO

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA TO NORCAL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS RIDGE
WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DELTA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLERS OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL AIRMASS WARMS A BIT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION SHOULD BE THE DELTA INFLUENCED
AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DELTA BREEZE AND A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOLING. MODELS ONLY
SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE
SOUTHWARD SO THIS LOOKS LIKE ONLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AREA TODAY. MAIN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ADD AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE COASTAL RANGE AND SHASTA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOLING EFFECT ELSEWHERE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH AT OVER AN INCH
AND A HALF TPW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
INCLUDED A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEY AS
BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY COULD BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AND ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. EVEN WITH COOLING
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORCAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 90S. THE THREAT OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO END AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES. ISOLD
TSTMS OVER SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011252
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
552 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR
TODAY ACROSS KERN COUNTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION. A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:45 AM PDT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
1045 PDT.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 011252
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
552 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR
TODAY ACROSS KERN COUNTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION. A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:45 AM PDT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
1045 PDT.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 011252
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
552 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR
TODAY ACROSS KERN COUNTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION. A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:45 AM PDT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
1045 PDT.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011252
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
552 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

&&

.UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AND MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED FOR
TODAY ACROSS KERN COUNTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION. A FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:45 AM PDT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
1045 PDT.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011141
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE METRO THIS MORNING...THOUGH BE AS CLOSE AS LUKE AFB/WHITE TANKS.
REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER..WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...A ROGUE STORM IMPACTING ONE OF THE CNTRL
ARIZONA AERODROMES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 10K FT...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND VERY LOCALIZED
TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE WELL AWAY
FROM TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND VERY LITTLE TO NO MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS66 KEKA 011140
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
440 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM UT ACROSS
N CA. THE CENTER OF THE 594-596 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WNW
TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME N CA AND NW NV BEFORE WEAKENING
ON THU NIGHT. AS A RESULT...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE HOT VALUES FROM TUE.
AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR E
ZONES. BEST CHANCES OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA
SHRINKS FOR THU...MAINLY REMAINING OVER A SMALL PART OF THE N
COAST INTERIOR ZONES AND PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY. ALTHO THE
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY THU...MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AND SE...WITH
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY PREVENT MAX TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND DON`T WANT TO
LOWER ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE TO RAISE IT AGAIN. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
NE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND SECTIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS WAS COVERING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE
DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND REPLACED IT WITH A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 5PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS HAS
NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING. NWPS
AND ENP INDICATE SEAS REMAINING NEAR 10 FT AT 8 SECONDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE WILL BE ABOUT HALF OF THE ZONE...OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SEAS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURGING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM THU FOR CAZ076.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM FRI
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 011140
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
440 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM UT ACROSS
N CA. THE CENTER OF THE 594-596 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WNW
TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME N CA AND NW NV BEFORE WEAKENING
ON THU NIGHT. AS A RESULT...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE HOT VALUES FROM TUE.
AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR E
ZONES. BEST CHANCES OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA
SHRINKS FOR THU...MAINLY REMAINING OVER A SMALL PART OF THE N
COAST INTERIOR ZONES AND PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY. ALTHO THE
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY THU...MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AND SE...WITH
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY PREVENT MAX TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND DON`T WANT TO
LOWER ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE TO RAISE IT AGAIN. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
NE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND SECTIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS WAS COVERING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE
DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND REPLACED IT WITH A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 5PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS HAS
NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING. NWPS
AND ENP INDICATE SEAS REMAINING NEAR 10 FT AT 8 SECONDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE WILL BE ABOUT HALF OF THE ZONE...OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SEAS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURGING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM THU FOR CAZ076.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM FRI
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 011140
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
440 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM UT ACROSS
N CA. THE CENTER OF THE 594-596 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WNW
TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME N CA AND NW NV BEFORE WEAKENING
ON THU NIGHT. AS A RESULT...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE HOT VALUES FROM TUE.
AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR E
ZONES. BEST CHANCES OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA
SHRINKS FOR THU...MAINLY REMAINING OVER A SMALL PART OF THE N
COAST INTERIOR ZONES AND PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY. ALTHO THE
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU MOST OF THE DAY THU...MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AND SE...WITH
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY PREVENT MAX TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND DON`T WANT TO
LOWER ADVISORY ONLY TO HAVE TO RAISE IT AGAIN. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND...TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROF. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF N CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
NE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND SECTIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS WAS COVERING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO MEANDER NEAR OR AT THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE
DAY THEN PRESS SLIGHTLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND REPLACED IT WITH A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 5PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS HAS
NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING. NWPS
AND ENP INDICATE SEAS REMAINING NEAR 10 FT AT 8 SECONDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE WILL BE ABOUT HALF OF THE ZONE...OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PZZ470. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EASE UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SEAS. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SAT AND SUN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SURGING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM THU FOR CAZ076.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM FRI
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1135Z...

AT 0842Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 700 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE EAST ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...DISRUPTING WHAT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS/FOG THERE IS. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURNING TO COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING (12Z-16Z) AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z). ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING TODAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...01/250 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011104
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
404 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SIERRA SHOWERS DECREASING NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO NORCAL
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DELTA
BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLERS OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL AIRMASS WARMS A BIT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION SHOULD BE THE DELTA INFLUENCED
AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DELTA BREEZE AND A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOLING. MODELS ONLY
SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE
SOUTHWARD SO THIS LOOKS LIKE ONLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AREA TODAY. MAIN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ADD AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE COASTAL RANGE AND SHASTA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOLING EFFECT ELSEWHERE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH AT OVER AN INCH
AND A HALF TPW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
INCLUDED A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEY AS
BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY COULD BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AND ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. EVEN WITH COOLING
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORCAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 90S. THE THREAT OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO END AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES. ISOLD
TSTMS OVER SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 011104
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
404 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SIERRA SHOWERS DECREASING NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK BUT REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO NORCAL
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DELTA
BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLERS OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...OVERALL AIRMASS WARMS A BIT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION SHOULD BE THE DELTA INFLUENCED
AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DELTA BREEZE AND A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOLING. MODELS ONLY
SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE
SOUTHWARD SO THIS LOOKS LIKE ONLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AREA TODAY. MAIN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ADD AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE COASTAL RANGE AND SHASTA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOLING EFFECT ELSEWHERE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH AT OVER AN INCH
AND A HALF TPW UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY. WITH THIS HIGH LEVEL OF
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
INCLUDED A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEY AS
BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY COULD BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AND ONLY A SLIGHT
COOLING AS THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. EVEN WITH COOLING
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER NORCAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A WEAK TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 90S. THE THREAT OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO END AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES. ISOLD
TSTMS OVER SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 22Z-02Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011058 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
358 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH
DESERTS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND SAN BERN AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS OUR REGION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM
WEATHER TODAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL START THURSDAY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE. BY
THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EVENT. HEAVIER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX HAVE GENERATED INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PALM SPRINGS TO ONTARIO
LINE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LARGE COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 14-15Z. ANOTHER WAVE IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR YUMA ATTM AND WILL PUSH WNW INTO
IMPERIAL...SAN DIEGO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20Z
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULLY JUICED...LAST EVENING`S MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED A RECORD PWAT MEASUREMENT OF 1.63 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINTOP
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REGAIN CONTROL OF
COASTAL WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHERMAKERS APPARENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

010945Z...RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AIRPORTS. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AIRPORTS TODAY IS MODERATE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT

PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 17Z TODAY WITH
SCT008-010.

FROM 01/21Z TO 02/05Z...GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND
UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 245 AM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 245 AM...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
MAY MOVE OVER THE BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011058 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
358 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH
DESERTS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND SAN BERN AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS OUR REGION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM
WEATHER TODAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL START THURSDAY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE. BY
THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EVENT. HEAVIER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX HAVE GENERATED INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PALM SPRINGS TO ONTARIO
LINE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LARGE COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 14-15Z. ANOTHER WAVE IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR YUMA ATTM AND WILL PUSH WNW INTO
IMPERIAL...SAN DIEGO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20Z
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULLY JUICED...LAST EVENING`S MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED A RECORD PWAT MEASUREMENT OF 1.63 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINTOP
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REGAIN CONTROL OF
COASTAL WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHERMAKERS APPARENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

010945Z...RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AIRPORTS. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AIRPORTS TODAY IS MODERATE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT

PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 17Z TODAY WITH
SCT008-010.

FROM 01/21Z TO 02/05Z...GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND
UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 245 AM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 245 AM...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
MAY MOVE OVER THE BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011058 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
358 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH
DESERTS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND SAN BERN AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS OUR REGION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM
WEATHER TODAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL START THURSDAY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE. BY
THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EVENT. HEAVIER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX HAVE GENERATED INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PALM SPRINGS TO ONTARIO
LINE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LARGE COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 14-15Z. ANOTHER WAVE IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR YUMA ATTM AND WILL PUSH WNW INTO
IMPERIAL...SAN DIEGO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20Z
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULLY JUICED...LAST EVENING`S MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED A RECORD PWAT MEASUREMENT OF 1.63 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINTOP
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REGAIN CONTROL OF
COASTAL WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHERMAKERS APPARENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

010945Z...RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AIRPORTS. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AIRPORTS TODAY IS MODERATE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT

PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 17Z TODAY WITH
SCT008-010.

FROM 01/21Z TO 02/05Z...GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND
UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 245 AM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 245 AM...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
MAY MOVE OVER THE BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011047
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
347 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH
DESERTS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND SAN BERN AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS OUR REGION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR
STARTING THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EVENT. HEAVIER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX HAVE GENERATED INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PALM SPRINGS TO ONTARIO
LINE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LARGE COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 14-15Z. ANOTHER WAVE IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR YUMA ATTM AND WILL PUSH WNW INTO
IMPERIAL...SAN DIEGO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20Z
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULLY JUICED...LAST EVENING`S MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED A RECORD PWAT MEASUREMENT OF 1.63 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINTOP
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REGAIN CONTROL OF
COASTAL WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHERMAKERS APPARENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

010945Z...RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AIRPORTS. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AIRPORTS TODAY IS MODERATE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT

PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 17Z TODAY WITH
SCT008-010.

FROM 01/21Z TO 02/05Z...GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND
UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 245 AM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 245 AM...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
MAY MOVE OVER THE BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011047
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
347 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE HIGH
DESERTS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND SAN BERN AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION ACROSS OUR REGION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR
STARTING THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. LOW CLOUDS
WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EVENT. HEAVIER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE COMPLEX HAVE GENERATED INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PALM SPRINGS TO ONTARIO
LINE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE LARGE COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER 14-15Z. ANOTHER WAVE IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR YUMA ATTM AND WILL PUSH WNW INTO
IMPERIAL...SAN DIEGO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 15-20Z
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. AS A RESULT OF THESE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULLY JUICED...LAST EVENING`S MIRAMAR
SOUNDING INDICATED A RECORD PWAT MEASUREMENT OF 1.63 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINTOP
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
SQUASH MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REGAIN CONTROL OF
COASTAL WEATHER WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO ADDITIONAL WEATHERMAKERS APPARENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

010945Z...RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AIRPORTS. CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT AIRPORTS TODAY IS MODERATE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
DECREASE OVERNIGHT

PATCHY MARINE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 17Z TODAY WITH
SCT008-010.

FROM 01/21Z TO 02/05Z...GUSTY WEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND
UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 245 AM...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 245 AM...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
MAY MOVE OVER THE BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL AREAS FOR TODAY. SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR VIA COUNTY SKYWARN NETS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011020
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
 KENTFIELD.................103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
 NAPA......................103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
 RICHMOND...................97/1985
 LIVERMORE.................110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
 SAN JOSE..................102/1985
 GILROY....................108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
 MONTEREY...................96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
 SALINAS....................85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
 KING CITY.................105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
BACK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN BRINGS DRIER AIR...AND A
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHEN A
RATHER STRONG INVERTED TROF MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A RATHER STRONG JET MAX...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IN
THE 200-300MB LAYER...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUIETER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING 200-300MB WINDS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-20 KNOT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES FALLING INTO THE 500-
600 J/KG RANGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL SHEAR WHEN
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AFTER THIS MORNING...THE HI-RES ARW
AND NMM MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PWATS WILL BE STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN THE 1.40-1.60 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE COLUMN...THE
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWER STORM MOTION
INCREASING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHAT. BLOWING DUST
SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THE STORM MOTION STILL MORE FROM
A EAST-WEST DIRECTION RATHER THEN FROM A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ONE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A FURTHER DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE
MAIN HIGH CENTER ALOFT REPOSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA...AND
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS FALLING INTO
THE 1.20-1.40 INCH RANGE. THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS
POINT IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME OUTFLOW ACTIVITY FROM THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE AROUND DURING THIS TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET
TOO FAR ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE MAIN 500MB HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT...WITH  HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 590-292DM
RANGE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY AOB 110 ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ LOWER DESERTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF
THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH 200-300MB
WINDS RISING AOA 40KTS AND PWATS RISING SMARTLY INTO THE 1.60-1.80
INCH RANGE. THUS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS QUITE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING
QUITE STRONG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SW-LY...AND BEGINS TO IMPORT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0540Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/250 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011009
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...PLUS WARM AND HUMID AIR...MAY BRING A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... ALL EYES ON A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THAT IS MOVING TO THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF L.A.
COUNTY AROUND DAWN. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE WAVE
REACHES SLO COUNTY IT WILL LACK THE OOMPH NEEDED FOR TSTMS AND THERE
WILL JUST BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. LOTS OF MOISTURE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING STILL JUST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM OR SHOWER ANYWHERE OVER LA
OR VTA COUNTY AND THE ERN PORTION OF SBA COUNTY. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GREATLY REDUCE THE WORRY OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY STRATUS...MAYBE A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTRAL
COAST BUT IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM OVERHEAD. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YDY FOR
SURE...UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL WORSE. MAX
TEMP FORECAST IN FACT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS ARE THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OBLITERATE THE MARINE LAYER SO
SKIES TONIGHT WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNIER AND WARMER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND WITH THE ADDED SUNSHINE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND THE DESERTS.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE A SLOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LA
CST ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS BY
DAWN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAX TEMP SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY. STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAINS BUT PARAMETERS ARE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THURSDAY SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT
AND BOTH MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A
TROF WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL SET UP DRY
SW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT ENDING THE ABOVE
NORMAL HUMIDITY AND THE CONVECTION CHCS. THE LOWERING HGTS AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A VLY PENETRATING MARINE CLOUD
LAYER TO DEVELOP. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALL BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0540Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/250 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND..THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL SOUTHWARD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 011005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 011005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT BY DAYBREAK
AND CONTINUE INTO THE KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS HAD BEEN FORECASTING A DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR TODAY...BUT THE OBSERVED CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAD FORECAST.

AS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WARMED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO REACHING 106 DEGREES. RESIDUAL WARMTH
AND CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...RESULTING IN A WARM START TO TODAY.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL SURGE WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE CAPPED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MERCED COULD BE WARMER THAN BAKERSFIELD TODAY AS MERCED MAY NOT
SEE THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BLANKET AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     79:2013     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     81:2013     48:1902

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 010954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE
100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON MAY SEE HIGHS EXCEED 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL
ROUTINE OF YESTERDAY WITH INITIATION ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY OVER
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE NEW STORM
FORMATION WILL BE DICTATED BY STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WHICH ARE
ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE. A DCAPE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY
WITH ROUGHLY 1000-1400 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50 AND GENERALLY BELOW
800 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 50. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING OUTFLOW WINDS
NORTH OF HWY 50 TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (UP TO 50 MPH) WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. AS WITH
THE STORMS YESTERDAY, FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND EVEN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE START WITH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOME IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THIS
WARM WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LOWERING LFCS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
WEEKEND BEING ACTIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW REACHING OVER 1
INCH SATURDAY. GFS/EC ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THINGS. BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ONE DOWN SIDE COULD
BE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE EXTENSIVE CUTTING INSTABILITY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY, A LITTLE DRYING TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE WAVE, BUT PW WILL
STILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRYING S-SW FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW IS NOT
STRONG SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT. HAVE
GONE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY...FIRST DUE TO CLOUD COVER SAT/SUN THEN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40 PCT
AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...SMALL
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE
100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON MAY SEE HIGHS EXCEED 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL
ROUTINE OF YESTERDAY WITH INITIATION ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY OVER
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE NEW STORM
FORMATION WILL BE DICTATED BY STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WHICH ARE
ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE. A DCAPE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY
WITH ROUGHLY 1000-1400 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50 AND GENERALLY BELOW
800 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 50. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING OUTFLOW WINDS
NORTH OF HWY 50 TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (UP TO 50 MPH) WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. AS WITH
THE STORMS YESTERDAY, FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND EVEN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE START WITH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOME IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THIS
WARM WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LOWERING LFCS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
WEEKEND BEING ACTIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW REACHING OVER 1
INCH SATURDAY. GFS/EC ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THINGS. BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ONE DOWN SIDE COULD
BE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE EXTENSIVE CUTTING INSTABILITY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY, A LITTLE DRYING TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE WAVE, BUT PW WILL
STILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRYING S-SW FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW IS NOT
STRONG SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT. HAVE
GONE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY...FIRST DUE TO CLOUD COVER SAT/SUN THEN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40 PCT
AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...SMALL
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010605
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/0030Z

AT 0520Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 700 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 1600 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NON COASTAL TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS
KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND
LASTING UNTIL 17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE KSMX TAF BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
KSBP TAF WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 10Z-17Z.

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS KSBA SOUTHWARD WITH A 40
PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND LASTING UNTIL 17Z. A 30
PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF A TSTM AFT 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010556 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1055 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.QUICK UPDATE... LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS STEAMROLLING INTO SE
CALIFORNIA ATTM ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SRN/CTRL AZ.
ATMOSPHERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER POPS/QPF
AND CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. LESS CONFIDENCE IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD TOGETHER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT
OVERNIGHT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 930 PM)...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

QUICK UPDATE...JMB
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 010543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN
SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN
SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 010543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND LIGHT WINDS

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN
SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 010453
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT LOWER ELEVATION
DESERT COMMUNITIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
MODERATING BACK DOWN TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WITH LARGE CAPE AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF ARIZONA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
00Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CIN REQUIRING A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 J/KG TO BE
REALIZED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TRENDING DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE CIN. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OVER TWC CWA...WITH PIMA COUNTY SEEING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AND NONE HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY STRONG THOUGH FAR NORTH
PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY HAVE HAVE SEEN SOME NOTABLE LIGHTNING.
LATE ARRIVING 03Z PSR SOUNDING SHOWS SIMILAR TEMP AND DEW POINT
PROFILES TO 00Z WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO CONTINUING.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION IS ONE IN WHICH ANY ONE STORM COULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO SOMETHING SEVERE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT
BLOSSOMING OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND CONTINUING INTO YUMA AND LA
PAZ...AND WESTWARD...WITH A SECOND ROUND DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING WESTWARD. THUS WILL NOT
DROP THE WATCH FOR OUR AREA JUST YET NOR DROP THE POPS JUST YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 255 PM MST/PDT... THE FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MCVS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER SOUTHEAST CA... RAPIDLY COOLING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE RIM AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
LOWER AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. AM CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE
POOL HAS ALLOWED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
SIDE...WITH AREA TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK FOR RADAR COVERAGE TO RAPIDLY FILL IN OVER THE
RIM THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DROP OUTFLOWS AND RESULTING STORM BUILD-
UPS INTO THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE STORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY
CLEARS TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA.

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS...SATELLITE OBSERVED WINDS AND A SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING FROM KTWC TODAY ALL INDICATE STILL FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENHANCED STEERING FLOW AFTN/EVENING PROFILE AVAILABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO EASTERN AZ. MODEL FCSTS CONTINUE FAVORABLE ML
SHEAR...BALLPARK 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SE/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED TPW PWATS AND GPS IPW
INDICATE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF AZ AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT MCV JUST OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION STILL PAINT FAIRLY HEALTH ML AND MU CAPES AMOUNTS ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS
COMING TOGETHER TO SAY POTENTIAL IS HIGH...AND CONCERN AS WELL...FOR
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING
OVER THE PHOENIX METRO....STRONG STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY MAY SEND
SEVERAL STRONG OUTFLOWS INTO THE REGION TO HELP INITIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING. EVEN THOUGH STORM MOTION MAY BE FASTER THAN WHAT
WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON...CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA FOR THIS LATE IN JUNE. STRONG DOWNBURST/MICROBURST WINDS...LONG-
LIVED OUTFLOWS...ACCOMPANYING BLOWING DUST AND EVEN HAIL IN THE
SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL BOOST OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL FROM THE LONG-
TRAVELING TX MCV...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST TOWARDS THE
CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA LATER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL GREAT THE AREA BY THE
AM...KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE WARMSIDE BUT ALSO
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AND OPEN
TO JULY WITH AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.

500MB HIGH BEGINS TO REPOSITION BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO TO
ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH REMAINS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED FASHION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN
AND DAILY CONVECTION DEPENDENT ON HOW INSTABILITY MODIFIES OVER
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO IMPORTING RICHER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. SO...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO MIX OUT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AND THE AXIS
ONCE AGAIN ALIGNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE HIGH 500-300MB CENTERS STACKING/CO-LOCATING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE HIGH FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

STORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY NIBBLED AT METRO PHOENIX WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP BEFORE 10Z BUT MAY
NEED TO REMOVE VCTS FROM TAFS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. IF ANY STORMS
MANAGE TO FORM THEY WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AND
BE LONG LIVED. WHAT STARTS OFF AS A WEAK STORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
VERY STRONG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST
STARTING AFTER 06Z. SOUTHWEST AND WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 09Z BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z. WILL TAKE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY
COMPONENTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RATHER LOW CHANCES OF SURVIVING INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HUMIDITIES RISE
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HUMIDITIES RISING SEVERAL
PERCENT BY MONDAY. VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/MEYERS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...CB




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010448
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
948 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. SIERRA
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY FOR THE
SACRAMENTO REGION WHILE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE THE NORTH
END OF THE VALLEY BEGINS TO SEE A DECENT COOLING TREND. THE DELTA
BREEZE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO HELP BRING SOME COOLER AIR FOR
THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY THE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABSENT THE DELTA INFLUENCE.

THE OTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL OF DAYS. FOR WEDNESDAY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
MAINLY STAY OVER THE CREST BUT ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE HIGH MIGRATES FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA TO OVER NEVADA
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR FIRST FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES DURING THE DAY AND
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTH END
OF THE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD CLOVER ONCE AGAIN WILL
BE OUR FRIEND DURING THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

OVER THE WEEKEND, INTERIOR NORCAL IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH AND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MAIN INSTABILITY, AND THUS THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, IS DEPICTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS
INTO EARLY EVENINGS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DRIFTS
NORTHWARD, SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST. AS A RESULT, THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
COOLER. MAX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE DELTA TO
AROUND 100 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, WITH UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90 FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.     JCLAPP

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER HIGH OVER ROCKIES EXTENDS OVER NORCAL AND CONTINUES
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HOT TEMPS. ISOLD TSTM OVER SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 22Z- 02Z. AFTERNOON DENSITY ALTITUDES MAY BE HIGH WED/THU.
JCLAPP
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING
THURSDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL DECREASE. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THINGS CALMED DOWN AFTER LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVED WEST
AND AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OCCURRED BEHIND THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
SPIKED AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS INTERRUPTED...RESULTING IN MIRAMAR
REACHING 91 AT 6 PM AND JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT REACHING 86 AT 8 PM. AT
MID-EVENING...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING WEST OVER
SONORA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ISOLATED CELLS IN FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST. THERE IS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA STORMS...BUT THE MCS APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO SEND OUTFLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. THE YUMA OBSERVATION THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL
FOR POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND/OR BLOW DUST IN OUR
DESERTS. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OVER OUR AREA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING WEST THROUGH SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA EARLY WED COULD RESULT IN FURTHER
ACTIVITY. EXACT LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE...BUT THEY AGAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST TO THE DESERTS. IF CLOUD COVER IS LOW ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES AS NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS IS WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER STRONG...20-25 KNOTS...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOSTLY BE
LOW...THOUGH ANY TRAINING...OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE FIRE
BURN AREA IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLOODING. IT SHOULD BE HOT AGAIN IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SOME PLACES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A
PRECURSOR TO A MORE NOTABLE COOLING TREND THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LOWER THU/FRI AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DERCREASES...AND 00Z NAM INDICATES PROBABLY NO TSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL FRIDAY. ALSO...THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINES SHIFT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY AND WILL BE WELL INTO THE DESERT BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES. IN FACT...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME MTN/DESERT
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ON THE DESERT
FOOTHILLS. RIGHT NOW...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY SSW FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MONSOONAL FLOW IN
OUR EASTERN AREAS EARLIER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER NOW. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING AND THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THERE SHOULD BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT EXTENSIVE DUE TO THE
RENEWED RISE IN LOCAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...SCT CLOUDS AOA 150...BECOMING BKN-OVC150 AFT 08Z WITH SCT
-SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE WITH TOPS TO FL300 AFT 10Z. CONFIDENCE
IN MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS LOW AND HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE COASTAL TAF SITES...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 600-900 FT
MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1K FT MSL ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
ALONG WITH LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ AFT 10Z THROUGH 15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH
WED...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WED AFTERNOON.

THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS...WEST WINDS 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS AND UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE BEACHES ON WED. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010438
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW
THIS EVENING AT KLAX...AROUND 500 FEET OR SO. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU THE NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THRU L.A. COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPARENTLY CLEARED AWAY SOME OF THE
LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE NEAR THE COAST S OF PT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE AFFECT A FEW IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES LATE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS LINGERED THIS EVENING IN THE
FOOTHILLS..MTNS AND DESERTS. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WERE AFFECTING MONTECITO HILLS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AND
TEMPS SOARING TO 90 DEGREES AS OF 845 PM. THESE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AND SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
INTO NEVADA FOR WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
OVER NEVADA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

BROAD SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHO THE
NAM IS FORECASTING THE MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME FOR FRI. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS UP TO 1.60 INCHES) AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THRU FRI. FOR WED...HIER AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE 00Z NAM IS ALSO HINTING THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY
LINGER WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM VTU COUNTY NORTHWARD.

VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HI CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THRU THU...ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BRING SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS MAINLY TO THE FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WED THRU
FRI...BUT HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROF DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE MONSOON CONNECTION AND BRING A RETURN TO
TYPICAL NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH NO THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE GFS SHOWS THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE HIGH BACK WEST AND PUSH THAT
NRN CA TROF FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WARMER
SOLUTION AND COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0030Z...

AT 2350Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2000 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEG C.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AT TIMES TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 04Z
AT KOXR TO 13Z AT KLGB. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU WED.
GUSTY SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 12Z-
17Z...WITH THE TIMING OF ONSET AND DISSIPATION POSSIBLY OFF
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR TWO.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS WILL EXIST
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SANTA CRUZ BASINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND FETCH IN THE
VICINITY NEW ZEALAND SOUTH ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST. WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FETCH IS ORIENTED 200-220 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY.
THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND BUILD THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KMTR 010341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR. ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 06Z WITH LIFR
VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .WED...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR. ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 06Z WITH LIFR
VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .WED...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR. ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 06Z WITH LIFR
VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .WED...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 010341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR. ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 06Z WITH LIFR
VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .WED...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 010341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
841 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
UTAH AND NEVADA CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS
BROUGHT AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY. BRADLEY IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY
REACHED 109 WHILE LIVERMORE REACHED 108. GILROY WAS THE ONLY
RECORD TODAY AT 103. COASTAL AREAS WERE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER BUT EVEN THOSE AREAS SAW MORE SUN THAN USUAL
AND WARMED UP AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MONDAY.

MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SHOWERS THREAT EXTENDS INTO THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY SO
THE HEAT INDEX COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT AS TUESDAY IT MAY ACTUALLY FEEL A
BIT HOTTER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY SO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING ABOUT A
5-10 DEGREE COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE COOLING TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER. COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KMRY...KSNS...KHAF...KWVI.WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO
SEE CIGS TONIGHT. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
CONFINED TO THE COASTLINE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR. ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
EASING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 06Z WITH LIFR
VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 30 AND JULY 1 FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS.

.SF BAY AREA.................JUNE 30............JULY 1
 KENTFIELD..................106/1972...........103/1996
 SAN RAFAEL..................98/1999............99/1991
 NAPA.......................105/1972...........103/1972
 SAN FRANCISCO...............93/1996............92/1991
 SFO AIRPORT.................92/1996............99/1985
 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN............90/1972............92/1984
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.............90/1950............90/1985
 RICHMOND....................91/1996............97/1985
 LIVERMORE..................112/1972...........110/1950
 MOUNTAIN VIEW...............91/1972............97/1985
 SAN JOSE...................100/1996...........102/1985
 GILROY......................98/1999...........108/1972

MONTEREY BAY AREA............JUNE 30............JULY 1
 MONTEREY....................89/1996............96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..................98/1996............99/1970
 SALINAS.....................94/1996............85/1996
 SALINAS AIRPORT.............97/1996............88/1991
 KING CITY..................109/1950...........105/1985

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 11:03 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LINGERING
NORTH OF PT REYES INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .WED...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA AND THE
                             SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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000
FXUS66 KHNX 010145 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
644 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO
SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. A FEW CELLS
ARE ALSO INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KERN COUNTY.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.

24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING UP AS MUCH
AS 7-14 DEGREES...WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND SOME DESERT SITES AROUND 110 DEGREES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HOWEVER GENERALLY DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL PERCENTAGE
POINTS. THIS IS KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER IT IS STILL QUITE HOT. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.

MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...
ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHILE DRAGGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY IN THE DESERT ZONES BY MORNING ACCORDING TO
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS. PERSONS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
EXTRA CARE IN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WITH
CONTINUING SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DRIER AND LESS HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS BETWEEN THRU 04Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956

KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010145 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
644 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO
SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. A FEW CELLS
ARE ALSO INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KERN COUNTY.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.

24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING UP AS MUCH
AS 7-14 DEGREES...WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND SOME DESERT SITES AROUND 110 DEGREES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HOWEVER GENERALLY DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL PERCENTAGE
POINTS. THIS IS KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER IT IS STILL QUITE HOT. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.

MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...
ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHILE DRAGGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY IN THE DESERT ZONES BY MORNING ACCORDING TO
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS. PERSONS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
EXTRA CARE IN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WITH
CONTINUING SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DRIER AND LESS HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS BETWEEN THRU 04Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956

KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 010145 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
644 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO
SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. A FEW CELLS
ARE ALSO INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KERN COUNTY.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.

24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING UP AS MUCH
AS 7-14 DEGREES...WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND SOME DESERT SITES AROUND 110 DEGREES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HOWEVER GENERALLY DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL PERCENTAGE
POINTS. THIS IS KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER IT IS STILL QUITE HOT. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.

MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...
ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHILE DRAGGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY IN THE DESERT ZONES BY MORNING ACCORDING TO
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS. PERSONS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
EXTRA CARE IN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WITH
CONTINUING SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DRIER AND LESS HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS BETWEEN THRU 04Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956

KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010144 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
644 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.


.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO
SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. A FEW CELLS
ARE ALSO INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KERN COUNTY.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.

24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING UP AS MUCH
AS 7-14 DEGREES...WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND SOME DESERT SITES AROUND 110 DEGREES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HOWEVER GENERALLY DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL PERCENTAGE
POINTS. THIS IS KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER IT IS STILL QUITE HOT. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.

MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...
ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHILE DRAGGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY IN THE DESERT ZONES BY MORNING ACCORDING TO
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS. PERSONS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TAKE
EXTRA CARE IN THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BACK TO THE EAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
BACK SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WITH
CONTINUING SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DRIER AND LESS HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS BETWEEN THRU 04Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956

KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010144 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
644 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.


.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA...DECREASING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO
SPIN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. A FEW CELLS
ARE ALSO INDICATED ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD KERN COUNTY.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING.

24 HR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING UP AS MUCH
AS 7-14 DEGREES...WITH MOST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND SOME DESERT SITES AROUND 110 DEGREES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE HOWEVER GENERALLY DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL PERCENTAGE
POINTS. THIS IS KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER IT IS STILL QUITE HOT. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY.

MODELS STRETCH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...
ADDING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WHILE DRAGGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY IN THE DESERT ZONES BY MORNING ACCORDIN