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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010351
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT MONDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTED IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE FELT AS A RESULT OF THE TYPICAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE COAST AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HOWEVER A ROBUST 4.7 MB GRADIENT FROM
ACV-SFO WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS PATCHY IN NATURE.
DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING AS
A TROUGH OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
COAST IN TURN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER.

SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY NOON.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:24 PM PDT MONDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS
AGAIN A LITTLE UNDER-FORECAST BY THE MESOSCALE MODEL TODAY.
THERE`S A BIT MORE SURFACE RIDGING THAN THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON FROM HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO MENDOCINO COUNTY WHICH IS STEEPENING
THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO 4.6 MB. THE UKI-STS GRADIENT IS NEAR FLAT.
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER SHOWS NO MARINE LAYER DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND.

MOST OF THE BAY AREA IS CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL HOLD OVER
THE BAY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME INLAND
INTRUSION BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 19-25 KNOTS TIL 03Z. TEMPO
MVFR CIG 10Z-14Z TUE MORNING. SAN CARLOS SODAR SHOWS MARINE LAYER
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA
OF STRATUS OVER THE PENINSULA. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION BASED NEAR 1600 FEET. FORECAST IS VFR FOLLOWED BY
CIG REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03Z-07Z THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 010351
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT MONDAY...A THERMAL TROUGH AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTED IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COAST WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE FELT AS A RESULT OF THE TYPICAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE COAST AT THIS HOUR. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HOWEVER A ROBUST 4.7 MB GRADIENT FROM
ACV-SFO WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS PATCHY IN NATURE.
DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING AS
A TROUGH OFF THE COAST DEEPENS AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
COAST IN TURN DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER.

SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY NOON.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:24 PM PDT MONDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS
AGAIN A LITTLE UNDER-FORECAST BY THE MESOSCALE MODEL TODAY.
THERE`S A BIT MORE SURFACE RIDGING THAN THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON FROM HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO MENDOCINO COUNTY WHICH IS STEEPENING
THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO 4.6 MB. THE UKI-STS GRADIENT IS NEAR FLAT.
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER SHOWS NO MARINE LAYER DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND.

MOST OF THE BAY AREA IS CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL HOLD OVER
THE BAY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME INLAND
INTRUSION BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 19-25 KNOTS TIL 03Z. TEMPO
MVFR CIG 10Z-14Z TUE MORNING. SAN CARLOS SODAR SHOWS MARINE LAYER
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA
OF STRATUS OVER THE PENINSULA. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION BASED NEAR 1600 FEET. FORECAST IS VFR FOLLOWED BY
CIG REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03Z-07Z THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



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000
FXUS66 KSTO 010344
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
844 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
September will start near normal but become cooler this week as a
weather system moves through. No moisture with this system, just
an increase to the winds in the delta and higher elevations across
Northern CA. For the Holiday weekend, dry conditions will continue
with temperatures warming back to near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging over the area will be replaced by a broad trough
that will drop down along the coast from Canada Tuesday and
Wednesday. temperatures for Tuesday will be a little cooler than
today but near seasonal normals. The trough continues to deepen
over the area Wednesday and Thursday to bring cooler than normal
temperatures to the area...80s valley and 60s to lower 70s for the
mountains. This trough does not look like it will bring any
precipitation to most of the interior at this time with models
indicating some possible showers north of Shasta County. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Upper trough will dominate the weather on Friday with dry, cool
weather. Temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal
that afternoon. Valley highs will be in the mid 80s up to 90 while
highs across the mountains and foothills range in the 60s to low
80s. Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models paint a different
outcome for the trough. The GFS has it weakening and lifting ENE
over the weekend. The ECMWF shows the low`s center pushing
southward into NorCal on Saturday before lifting NE on Sunday
afternoon. Have trended more towards the GFS and have a gradual
warming trend over the weekend while maintaining dry weather. By
Sunday and Monday, daytime highs should be slightly above normal
with valley highs back in the 90s.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions tonight through tomorrow for the interior.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KMTR 010024
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
524 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS SIGNS OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOPING. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS AND THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY REGION TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS AND INTERACTS WITH THE MARINE LAYER.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY REGION-WIDE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:24 PM PDT MONDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS
AGAIN A LITTLE UNDER-FORECAST BY THE MESOSCALE MODEL TODAY.
THERE`S A BIT MORE SURFACE RIDGING THAN THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON FROM HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO MENDOCINO COUNTY WHICH IS STEEPENING
THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO 4.6 MB. THE UKI-STS GRADIENT IS NEAR FLAT.
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER SHOWS NO MARINE LAYER DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND.

MOST OF THE BAY AREA IS CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL HOLD OVER
THE BAY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME INLAND
INTRUSION BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 19-25 KNOTS TIL 03Z. TEMPO
MVFR CIG 10Z-14Z TUE MORNING. SAN CARLOS SODAR SHOWS MARINE LAYER
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA
OF STRATUS OVER THE PENINSULA. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION BASED NEAR 1600 FEET. FORECAST IS VFR FOLLOWED BY
CIG REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03Z-07Z THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 010024
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
524 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS SIGNS OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOPING. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS AND THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY REGION TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS AND INTERACTS WITH THE MARINE LAYER.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY REGION-WIDE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:24 PM PDT MONDAY...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS
AGAIN A LITTLE UNDER-FORECAST BY THE MESOSCALE MODEL TODAY.
THERE`S A BIT MORE SURFACE RIDGING THAN THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON FROM HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO MENDOCINO COUNTY WHICH IS STEEPENING
THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO 4.6 MB. THE UKI-STS GRADIENT IS NEAR FLAT.
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER SHOWS NO MARINE LAYER DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND.

MOST OF THE BAY AREA IS CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL HOLD OVER
THE BAY AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH SOME INLAND
INTRUSION BECOMES MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 19-25 KNOTS TIL 03Z. TEMPO
MVFR CIG 10Z-14Z TUE MORNING. SAN CARLOS SODAR SHOWS MARINE LAYER
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA
OF STRATUS OVER THE PENINSULA. FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION BASED NEAR 1600 FEET. FORECAST IS VFR FOLLOWED BY
CIG REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03Z-07Z THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 010008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
508 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO COASTAL
TERMINALS BY NO LATER THAN 08Z. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z...THEN INTO VALLEY TERMINALS BY 13Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CATEGORY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO 22Z AT SOME
COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KBUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 010008 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
508 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FEET DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO COASTAL
TERMINALS BY NO LATER THAN 08Z. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z...THEN INTO VALLEY TERMINALS BY 13Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CATEGORY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO 22Z AT SOME
COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KBUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM.

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 312258
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ONTO THE WEST
COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WASHED OUT
FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER LONG SHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL
OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL
SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. RPA/BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE BL RH INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. THINK THAT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STP


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 21Z...NEAR SHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 TO 13
SECONDS. AN 18Z ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE OUTER WATERS SHOWING
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
WIND FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND. STP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS LAST NIGHT
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS PREDICTED TO ONCE AGAIN SINK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS THIS EVENING RH WILL SPIKE IN ALL
AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY LAYER
SINKS TO NEAR 3000 FT THE RH VALUES ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL
DECREASE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WHAT SEEMED UNLIKELY LAST NIGHT...RH FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ABOVE 3000
FEET...NOW SEEMS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS REQUIRING FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER A HEADLINE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES AND
DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DESPITE A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 312258
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ONTO THE WEST
COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WASHED OUT
FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER LONG SHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL
OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL
SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. RPA/BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE BL RH INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. THINK THAT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STP


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 21Z...NEAR SHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 TO 13
SECONDS. AN 18Z ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE OUTER WATERS SHOWING
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
WIND FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND. STP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS LAST NIGHT
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS PREDICTED TO ONCE AGAIN SINK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS THIS EVENING RH WILL SPIKE IN ALL
AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY LAYER
SINKS TO NEAR 3000 FT THE RH VALUES ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL
DECREASE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WHAT SEEMED UNLIKELY LAST NIGHT...RH FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ABOVE 3000
FEET...NOW SEEMS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS REQUIRING FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER A HEADLINE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES AND
DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DESPITE A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 312258
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ONTO THE WEST
COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WASHED OUT
FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER LONG SHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL
OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL
SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. RPA/BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE BL RH INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. THINK THAT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STP


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 21Z...NEAR SHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 TO 13
SECONDS. AN 18Z ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE OUTER WATERS SHOWING
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
WIND FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND. STP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS LAST NIGHT
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS PREDICTED TO ONCE AGAIN SINK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS THIS EVENING RH WILL SPIKE IN ALL
AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY LAYER
SINKS TO NEAR 3000 FT THE RH VALUES ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL
DECREASE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WHAT SEEMED UNLIKELY LAST NIGHT...RH FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ABOVE 3000
FEET...NOW SEEMS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS REQUIRING FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER A HEADLINE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES AND
DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DESPITE A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 312258
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ONTO THE WEST
COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WASHED OUT
FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER LONG SHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR
ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL
OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE UNTIL
SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. RPA/BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE BL RH INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO INTERIOR RIVER
VALLEYS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. THINK THAT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KUKI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STP


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 21Z...NEAR SHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 TO 13
SECONDS. AN 18Z ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE OUTER WATERS SHOWING
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
WIND FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HAVE
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND. STP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS LAST NIGHT
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT IS PREDICTED TO ONCE AGAIN SINK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS THIS EVENING RH WILL SPIKE IN ALL
AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY LAYER
SINKS TO NEAR 3000 FT THE RH VALUES ON THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL
DECREASE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WHAT SEEMED UNLIKELY LAST NIGHT...RH FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ABOVE 3000
FEET...NOW SEEMS PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS REQUIRING FIRE WEATHER WARNINGS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER A HEADLINE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES AND
DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES WITH WETTING RAINS UNLIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DESPITE A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 312246 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
345 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
THIS WILL INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT
15-22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITIES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVER 30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED
THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES MAY RISE ABOVE
15% FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 312246 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
345 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
THIS WILL INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT
15-22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITIES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVER 30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED
THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES MAY RISE ABOVE
15% FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS66 KMTR 312142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
242 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS SIGNS OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOPING. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS AND THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY REGION TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS AND INTERACTS WITH THE MARINE LAYER.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY REGION-WIDE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 312142
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
242 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS SIGNS OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOPING. THIS IS ALSO REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COASTLINE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS AND THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY REGION TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS AND INTERACTS WITH THE MARINE LAYER.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY REGION-WIDE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM OUR SOUTHWEST AND ENHANCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...COOLING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK SHOULD CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT...LIMITING COASTAL CLOUDS AND ENDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL DRIZZLE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 312133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED
UP ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS GILA COUNTY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STEERING FLOW HAS VEERED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH AT LEAST CONCEPTUALLY SHOULD FOCUS
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A WARM LAYER
NEAR 700 MB IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA.

U OF A WRFS HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AND AGAIN
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.
FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLERAINFALL...THOUGH
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO RESULTING FORECAST
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST VCTS FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS TO COME BEFORE ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. THINKING THAT ANY OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS COULD
OCCUR AROUND 01/02Z OR SO...WITH CB AND TS/RA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THE AM HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CA.
DAYTIME WINDS FOR KIPL TO STAY MOSTLY VRB BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
SUNDOWNER WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR KBLH WITH SOME AFTN GUSTINESS JUST SHY OF 20KTS OR SO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 312133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED
UP ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS GILA COUNTY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STEERING FLOW HAS VEERED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH AT LEAST CONCEPTUALLY SHOULD FOCUS
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A WARM LAYER
NEAR 700 MB IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA.

U OF A WRFS HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AND AGAIN
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.
FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLERAINFALL...THOUGH
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO RESULTING FORECAST
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST VCTS FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS TO COME BEFORE ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. THINKING THAT ANY OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS COULD
OCCUR AROUND 01/02Z OR SO...WITH CB AND TS/RA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THE AM HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CA.
DAYTIME WINDS FOR KIPL TO STAY MOSTLY VRB BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
SUNDOWNER WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR KBLH WITH SOME AFTN GUSTINESS JUST SHY OF 20KTS OR SO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED
UP ON THE MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS GILA COUNTY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STEERING FLOW HAS VEERED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH AT LEAST CONCEPTUALLY SHOULD FOCUS
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. A WARM LAYER
NEAR 700 MB IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA.

U OF A WRFS HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AND AGAIN
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.
FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLERAINFALL...THOUGH
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO RESULTING FORECAST
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST VCTS FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS TO COME BEFORE ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. THINKING THAT ANY OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS COULD
OCCUR AROUND 01/02Z OR SO...WITH CB AND TS/RA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THE AM HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CA.
DAYTIME WINDS FOR KIPL TO STAY MOSTLY VRB BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
SUNDOWNER WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR KBLH WITH SOME AFTN GUSTINESS JUST SHY OF 20KTS OR SO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KSTO 312127
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
227 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
September will start cooler than average as a weather system
moves through. No moisture with this system, just an increase to
the winds in the delta and higher elevations across Northern CA.
For the Holiday weekend, dry conditions will continue with
temperatures warming back to near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another weather system off the Pacific Northwest coast will move
inland and impact northern California for the first few days of
September. Not a lot of moisture with this system, but the cooler
temperatures will be noticeable, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will also bring an increase in winds through
the delta and over the higher terrain in the northern Sacramento
Valley.

By the end of the week, temperatures will begin to rebound with
readings back to the upper 80s on Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Upper trough will dominate the weather on Friday with dry, cool
weather. Temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal
that afternoon. Valley highs will be in the mid 80s up to 90 while
highs across the mountains and foothills range in the 60s to low
80s. Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models paint a different
outcome for the trough. The GFS has it weakening and lifting ENE
over the weekend. The ECMWF shows the low`s center pushing
southward into NorCal on Saturday before lifting NE on Sunday
afternoon. Have trended more towards the GFS and have a gradual
warming trend over the weekend while maintaining dry weather. By
Sunday and Monday, daytime highs should be slightly above normal
with valley highs back in the 90s.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light onshore flow persist today into
tomorrow. TAF site winds should be around 10 kts or less. Delta
winds will range from 10-20 kts with occasional gusts up to 30
kts. JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 312127
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
227 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
September will start cooler than average as a weather system
moves through. No moisture with this system, just an increase to
the winds in the delta and higher elevations across Northern CA.
For the Holiday weekend, dry conditions will continue with
temperatures warming back to near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another weather system off the Pacific Northwest coast will move
inland and impact northern California for the first few days of
September. Not a lot of moisture with this system, but the cooler
temperatures will be noticeable, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will also bring an increase in winds through
the delta and over the higher terrain in the northern Sacramento
Valley.

By the end of the week, temperatures will begin to rebound with
readings back to the upper 80s on Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Upper trough will dominate the weather on Friday with dry, cool
weather. Temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal
that afternoon. Valley highs will be in the mid 80s up to 90 while
highs across the mountains and foothills range in the 60s to low
80s. Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models paint a different
outcome for the trough. The GFS has it weakening and lifting ENE
over the weekend. The ECMWF shows the low`s center pushing
southward into NorCal on Saturday before lifting NE on Sunday
afternoon. Have trended more towards the GFS and have a gradual
warming trend over the weekend while maintaining dry weather. By
Sunday and Monday, daytime highs should be slightly above normal
with valley highs back in the 90s.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light onshore flow persist today into
tomorrow. TAF site winds should be around 10 kts or less. Delta
winds will range from 10-20 kts with occasional gusts up to 30
kts. JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 312127
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
227 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
September will start cooler than average as a weather system
moves through. No moisture with this system, just an increase to
the winds in the delta and higher elevations across Northern CA.
For the Holiday weekend, dry conditions will continue with
temperatures warming back to near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another weather system off the Pacific Northwest coast will move
inland and impact northern California for the first few days of
September. Not a lot of moisture with this system, but the cooler
temperatures will be noticeable, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will also bring an increase in winds through
the delta and over the higher terrain in the northern Sacramento
Valley.

By the end of the week, temperatures will begin to rebound with
readings back to the upper 80s on Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Upper trough will dominate the weather on Friday with dry, cool
weather. Temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal
that afternoon. Valley highs will be in the mid 80s up to 90 while
highs across the mountains and foothills range in the 60s to low
80s. Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models paint a different
outcome for the trough. The GFS has it weakening and lifting ENE
over the weekend. The ECMWF shows the low`s center pushing
southward into NorCal on Saturday before lifting NE on Sunday
afternoon. Have trended more towards the GFS and have a gradual
warming trend over the weekend while maintaining dry weather. By
Sunday and Monday, daytime highs should be slightly above normal
with valley highs back in the 90s.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light onshore flow persist today into
tomorrow. TAF site winds should be around 10 kts or less. Delta
winds will range from 10-20 kts with occasional gusts up to 30
kts. JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 312127
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
227 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
September will start cooler than average as a weather system
moves through. No moisture with this system, just an increase to
the winds in the delta and higher elevations across Northern CA.
For the Holiday weekend, dry conditions will continue with
temperatures warming back to near 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another weather system off the Pacific Northwest coast will move
inland and impact northern California for the first few days of
September. Not a lot of moisture with this system, but the cooler
temperatures will be noticeable, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. This system will also bring an increase in winds through
the delta and over the higher terrain in the northern Sacramento
Valley.

By the end of the week, temperatures will begin to rebound with
readings back to the upper 80s on Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Upper trough will dominate the weather on Friday with dry, cool
weather. Temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below normal
that afternoon. Valley highs will be in the mid 80s up to 90 while
highs across the mountains and foothills range in the 60s to low
80s. Over the weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models paint a different
outcome for the trough. The GFS has it weakening and lifting ENE
over the weekend. The ECMWF shows the low`s center pushing
southward into NorCal on Saturday before lifting NE on Sunday
afternoon. Have trended more towards the GFS and have a gradual
warming trend over the weekend while maintaining dry weather. By
Sunday and Monday, daytime highs should be slightly above normal
with valley highs back in the 90s.  JBB


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light onshore flow persist today into
tomorrow. TAF site winds should be around 10 kts or less. Delta
winds will range from 10-20 kts with occasional gusts up to 30
kts. JBB


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 312115
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1734Z /1034 PDT/ THIS MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER AT FORT ORD HAD
LOWERED TO AS DEPTH OF 1600 FEET. LIGHT WINDS AT TRAVIS AFB INDICATE
THAT THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO DELTA INTO THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAD ENDED...AND THE 24-HOUR TREND AT 18Z /1100
PDT/ WAS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER 18Z SUNDAY...INDICATING THAT
THE MARINE AIR HAS BEGUN TO MIX OUT.

A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA TODAY...BUT THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND HAD MOVED EAST
OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEEPENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND MORE LIKE SUNDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.

ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO MOVING THE TROUGH SLOWER...THE ECMWF ALSO IS
DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY...PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE 12Z GFS IS DRY FOR BOTH THE 850-700-MB AND 700-500-MB LAYERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312110 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GILA COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AT THIS HOUR. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
RAIN...THOUGH LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO RESULTING FORECAST
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST VCTS FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS TO COME BEFORE ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. THINKING THAT ANY OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS COULD
OCCUR AROUND 01/02Z OR SO...WITH CB AND TS/RA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THE AM HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CA.
DAYTIME WINDS FOR KIPL TO STAY MOSTLY VRB BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
SUNDOWNER WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR KBLH WITH SOME AFTN GUSTINESS JUST SHY OF 20KTS OR SO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A RETURN TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 312110 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GILA COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AT THIS HOUR. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
RAIN...THOUGH LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO RESULTING FORECAST
FOR THE PHOENIX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST VCTS FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW INTRUSIONS TO COME BEFORE ANY
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. THINKING THAT ANY OUTFLOW WIND SHIFTS COULD
OCCUR AROUND 01/02Z OR SO...WITH CB AND TS/RA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
FOLLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND A STRAY SHOWER COULD LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS THE AM HOURS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CA.
DAYTIME WINDS FOR KIPL TO STAY MOSTLY VRB BEFORE TAKING UP TYPICAL
SUNDOWNER WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR KBLH WITH SOME AFTN GUSTINESS JUST SHY OF 20KTS OR SO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A RETURN TO DEEPER
MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KLOX 312028
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...AFTERNOON MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 312028
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...AFTERNOON MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 312028
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...AFTERNOON MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 312018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER THE CA BIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EDDY CENTERED OVER SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE SKY OVER SOCAL WAS CLEAR. THE EDDY
DEVELOPMENT HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER AND LOWERED TEMPS SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES F OVER VALUES OBSERVED MIDDAY YESTERDAY WEST OF THE
MTS. TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 5 DEGREES F LOWER IN THE DESERTS. AT
NOON PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK ONSHORE TO NV...AND
AROUND 5 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
GENERALLY IT REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER
SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL
WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH
THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION... 312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2500 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. VIS OF
1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17Z TUE
MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 100 PM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING
BEACHES IN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 312018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER THE CA BIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EDDY CENTERED OVER SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE SKY OVER SOCAL WAS CLEAR. THE EDDY
DEVELOPMENT HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER AND LOWERED TEMPS SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES F OVER VALUES OBSERVED MIDDAY YESTERDAY WEST OF THE
MTS. TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 5 DEGREES F LOWER IN THE DESERTS. AT
NOON PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK ONSHORE TO NV...AND
AROUND 5 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
GENERALLY IT REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER
SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL
WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH
THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION... 312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2500 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. VIS OF
1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17Z TUE
MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 100 PM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING
BEACHES IN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 312018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER THE CA BIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EDDY CENTERED OVER SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE SKY OVER SOCAL WAS CLEAR. THE EDDY
DEVELOPMENT HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER AND LOWERED TEMPS SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES F OVER VALUES OBSERVED MIDDAY YESTERDAY WEST OF THE
MTS. TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 5 DEGREES F LOWER IN THE DESERTS. AT
NOON PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK ONSHORE TO NV...AND
AROUND 5 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
GENERALLY IT REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER
SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL
WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH
THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION... 312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2500 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. VIS OF
1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17Z TUE
MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 100 PM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING
BEACHES IN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 312018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER THE CA BIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEVELOPED EDDY CENTERED OVER SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE SKY OVER SOCAL WAS CLEAR. THE EDDY
DEVELOPMENT HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER AND LOWERED TEMPS SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES F OVER VALUES OBSERVED MIDDAY YESTERDAY WEST OF THE
MTS. TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 5 DEGREES F LOWER IN THE DESERTS. AT
NOON PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK ONSHORE TO NV...AND
AROUND 5 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
GENERALLY IT REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER
SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOCAL
WILL HOLD TROUGH THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS
INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH
THE MASSIVE EASTPAC RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
N.A. HOLDING. THESE ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION... 312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR
2500 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. VIS OF
1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND 17Z TUE
MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 100 PM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING
BEACHES IN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KLOX 312007
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 312007
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.  THERE MAY BE SLIGHT WARMING LATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WEST COAST TROF APPEARS TO BE HERE TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN JUST MINOR FLUCTUATIONS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A 2000-2500` MARINE LYR WILL PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE TROF WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE LITTLE
CHANGE. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311754
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 AM PDT MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
FLOW HELPED TO KEEP THE SF BAY AREA MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHED LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SINCE BURNED OFF. THE MARINE LAYER SEEMS TO BE REESTABLISHING
ITSELF AFTER A FEW DAYS OF BEING WELL MIXED. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MARINE LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
EARLY STRATUS RETURN TO THE MONTEREY AREA...BUT WILL RESULT IN A
LATE RETURN TO THE SF BAY AREA THIS EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS AROUND 0900 TO 1000Z.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 18 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
26 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 0200 AND
0300Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REACH 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1800Z.

AT 1555Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...PATCHY FOG WAS CLEARING THIS MORNING AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE CLEARING
THIS MORNING AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EVEN SPREADING
INTO THE LA VALLEY TAF SITES. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL VARY MORE
THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
VARY MORE THAN PLUS OR MINUS TWO HOURS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 311626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 311626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 1000` UP
NORTH AND UP TO AROUND 2000` IN THE SOUTH THANKS TO AN EDDY
CIRCULATION, THOUGH COVERAGE MOSTLY CONFINED TO VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.
PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING COOLING, AND DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TO START OFF MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS OFF
BY A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR COOLING TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE
FOR COAST/VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...31/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE
CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311612
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GILA COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AT THIS HOUR. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
RAIN...THOUGH LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311612
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GILA COUNTY
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AT THIS HOUR. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO THIS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...OTHER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY PROPAGATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST POPS WERE INCREASED TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
RAIN...THOUGH LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311611
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND
AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST DOWN
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM SUNDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP...CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 311546
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
846 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THERE WAS AN EXPLOSION OF MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CA
BIGHT AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPED. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD
WELL INLAND THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE
CLOUD DECK INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A NEARLY 8 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FT. THIS WAS SOME
600 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WINDS ALOFT
WERE MORE UNIFORM...VEERING FROM S TO SW WITH HEIGHT. THIS DRY FLOW
HAS LOWERED THE PW TO 0.79 INCH. AT 7 AM PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAD TURNED NEUTRAL TO NV BUT REMAINED ONSHORE AROUND 5 MBS
TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL HOLD TROUGH THE
FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE
MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH THE MASSIVE EASTPAC
RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL N.A. HOLDING. THESE
ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO THE EAST OF
SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
311500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1700 FT MSL
AND TOPS NEAR 2300 FT MSL...WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING AROUND 17Z. A COASTAL EDDY MAY SLOW THE CLEARING. THE
31/12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED AN 8 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION.
LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE
LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING BEACHES IN ORANGE
COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 311546
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
846 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK. NOCTURNAL MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLOWLY RETREATING AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALOFT. THIS ONSHORE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE FOR MILD NIGHTS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THERE WAS AN EXPLOSION OF MARINE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CA
BIGHT AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPED. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD
WELL INLAND THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE
CLOUD DECK INTERSECTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING
HAD A NEARLY 8 DEGREE C INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FT. THIS WAS SOME
600 FT DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WINDS ALOFT
WERE MORE UNIFORM...VEERING FROM S TO SW WITH HEIGHT. THIS DRY FLOW
HAS LOWERED THE PW TO 0.79 INCH. AT 7 AM PDT...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAD TURNED NEUTRAL TO NV BUT REMAINED ONSHORE AROUND 5 MBS
TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WIND REPORTS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY THROUGH THE WIND-PRONE PASSES.

THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MARINE
CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST...AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT GENERALLY THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
OVER CA LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. COOLEST WEATHER SHOULD BE THU/FRI TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY
SLOW WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BENIGN PATTERN WILL HOLD TROUGH THE
FIRST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE LONGWAVE
MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...WITH THE MASSIVE EASTPAC
RIDGE ALONG 160W...AND THE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL N.A. HOLDING. THESE
ARE NO DOUBT HELPING TO ANCHOR THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WHICH DEFLECTS ANY MONSOONAL FLOW FARTHER TO THE EAST OF
SOCAL...AND MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
311500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1700 FT MSL
AND TOPS NEAR 2300 FT MSL...WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
MORNING AROUND 17Z. A COASTAL EDDY MAY SLOW THE CLEARING. THE
31/12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWED AN 8 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION.
LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VIS OF 1-3 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE
LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...AN ELEVATED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SURF TO 6 FEET ALONG SOUTHERLY-FACING BEACHES IN ORANGE
COUNTY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SURF IS FORECAST FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KLOX 311233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

CORRECTED TO CHANGE "WARMING" TO "COOLING" IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

CORRECTED TO CHANGE "WARMING" TO "COOLING" IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

CORRECTED TO CHANGE "WARMING" TO "COOLING" IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

CORRECTED TO CHANGE "WARMING" TO "COOLING" IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

CORRECTED TO CHANGE "WARMING" TO "COOLING" IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF SHORT TERM

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING)...AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF
ACTUALLY INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE.
HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE
STRATUS FIELD SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUDS
FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON WED. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST AS THE
WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING AS COOL AS NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 311158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFO BAY AREA
FREE OF THE STRATUS TODAY. STRATUS ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE MRY BAY AREA BRINGING IFR CIGS TO MRY AND
POSSIBLY SNS EARLY THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT MRY CLEARING 16Z OR
EARLIER. VFR EXPECTED AT SNS DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE CIGS
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 311128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH) AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF ACTUALLY
INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS FIELD
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF WED. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR THE COAST AS THE WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING
AS COOL AS NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH) AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF ACTUALLY
INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS FIELD
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF WED. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR THE COAST AS THE WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING
AS COOL AS NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH) AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF ACTUALLY
INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS FIELD
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF WED. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR THE COAST AS THE WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING
AS COOL AS NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

31/1130Z

AT 0840Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAFS WITH LOW CLOUDS XTNDING TO KOXR. A 20
PERCENT CHC OF A HOUR DELAY OF CLEARING AT SITES WITH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF VFR TRANSITION
DELAY TIL 17Z. LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 311124
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
424 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST. LITTLE TO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MILD...BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR MORE DETAILS IN
THAT REGARD...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH...BUT A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WASHED OUT FRONT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST CA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LONGSHOT FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FINAL VORT MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS THUS FAR ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY KEPT
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT REGARDING WHEN EXACTLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
EVENING AT KCEC...A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RECENT
RAINFALL. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG UNTIL YOU GET S OF PATRICKS POINT WHERE N FLOW
IS BEGINNING TO PILE UP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND...SPREADING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE
GFS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO GUSTS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KUKI. /SEC

&&

.MARINE...N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY...PARTICULARLY S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE S OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS S OF THE
CAPE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING ADVISORY INTO THE S NEAR
SHORE WATERS. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SEAS ACROSS THE S
NEAR SHORE ZONE... ESPECIALLY TUCKED IN JUST S OF THE CAPE.
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE S
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THEREAFTER. /SEC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED...RECOVERIES WERE GENERALLY GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FT WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY A
BIT OF FORESHADOWING FOR WHATS TO COME LATER TODAY...AS MORE MID
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND DESCEND IN ALTITUDE OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
THE HUMIDITY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT
TRICKIER...AS THE TIMING OF THE DESCENDING DRY AIR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE SUN
SETS...COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO RECOVER
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY ON THE PEAKS AND MID SLOPES AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS WEAK FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THEIR TYPICAL NW ONSHORE/NE OFFSHORE
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 311122
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
422 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SLOW WARMING
WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING THAT BEGAN ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE THAN THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CURRENTLY AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING WILL ALLOW
THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS ON
FOLLOWING NIGHTS.

THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON
THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW WARMING AND A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE GREATER WARMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

310900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD LOCALLY
INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1500 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS TO 1800 FEET. VIS REDUCED TO 3-5SM ALONG INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS.
CLEARING BY 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING BY 05-07Z BASED AT AROUND 1500 FEET MSL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KSGX 311122
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
422 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SLOW WARMING
WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING THAT BEGAN ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE THAN THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CURRENTLY AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING WILL ALLOW
THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS ON
FOLLOWING NIGHTS.

THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON
THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW WARMING AND A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE GREATER WARMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

310900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD LOCALLY
INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1500 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS TO 1800 FEET. VIS REDUCED TO 3-5SM ALONG INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS.
CLEARING BY 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING BY 05-07Z BASED AT AROUND 1500 FEET MSL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM



000
FXUS66 KSGX 311122
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
422 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING COOLING AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SLOW WARMING
WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING THAT BEGAN ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE THAN THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CURRENTLY AROUND 2000 FEET DEEP. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING WILL ALLOW
THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS ON
FOLLOWING NIGHTS.

THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON
THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW WARMING AND A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER LAYER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE GREATER WARMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

310900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD LOCALLY
INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200-1500 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS TO 1800 FEET. VIS REDUCED TO 3-5SM ALONG INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS.
CLEARING BY 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE INTO COASTAL AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING BY 05-07Z BASED AT AROUND 1500 FEET MSL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311106 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311106 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311106 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311106 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

DESPITE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...LOWER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
TIMING OF STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR. WE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TAF
THINKING AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE AREA TAFS AFTER ABOUT 02Z...ALSO
MENTIONING A WIND SHIFT AS STORMS INITIALLY FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL PHOENIX. HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STORMS MOVE THROUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY ELEVATED...MAINLY AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOWER CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED. WINDS TO FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SOUTH AT KBLH. A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE ALSO AT KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT EXPECTED EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE MORE INSISTENT UPON A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/HIRSCH



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311055
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY. ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF SYNOPTIC WARMING
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311055
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY. ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF SYNOPTIC WARMING
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 311055
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY. ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF SYNOPTIC WARMING
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 311055
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY. ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OF SYNOPTIC WARMING
TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 311045
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO IN MOST LOCALES WITH 24-HR TRENDS CURRENTLY DOWN 3 TO 13
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SFO AND LAS
ARE DOWN A FEW MILLIBARS COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING...A HEALTHY
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS THAT WAS PRESENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING IS MOSTLY NONEXISTENT
AS OF THIS WRITING ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...
MARINE AIR WILL REMAIN POOLED IN THE SJ VLY TODAY AND WITH A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH TEMPS IN THE SJ VLY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL FALL SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN TODAY...MUCH
LIKE SUNDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...THERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
OF SYNOPTIC WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

A MINOR WARMUP IS LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE WARMUP WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND WILL BE REVERSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...WEDNESDAY COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WARM AS TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
WHILE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE SPILLAGE OF MARINE AIR THROUGH THE SAC DELTA.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN
COUNTY. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THANKS TO A
RETURN INFILTRATION OF MARINE AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOLED
IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DIVERGE IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.
THE ECM DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT. THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WILL BE COOLER OR WARMER CAN BEST BE ANSWERED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH SHOWS NO DEEPENING TROUGH BUT RATHER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS AGREES MORE CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION
SO WE OPTED FOR WARMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BONE DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE
TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND
BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964

KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     74:1910     78:1998     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 311041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
314 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH) AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF ACTUALLY
INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS FIELD
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF WED. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR THE COAST AS THE WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING
AS COOL AS NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 311041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
314 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND
WITH A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PUSH NW
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND PROBABLY INTO VENTURA
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND
1300 FEET...SO CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME CLOUDS PUSHED INTO THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...CONTINUED HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS...AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES
IN ALL BUT PERHAPS ONE OR TWO OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF N-S GRADIENTS TO ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA
COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SWRN CANADA TUE THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INCLUDING THE SBA COUNTY S COAST ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH) AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THE WRF ACTUALLY
INDICATES LITTLE CLEARING AT SOME BEACHES ON TUE. HOWEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WATER MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS FIELD
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ON TUE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF WED. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR THE COAST AS THE WARMISH WATER WILL KEEP SEABREEZE FROM BEING
AS COOL AS NORMAL.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THRU WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS AND MAX TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

31/300 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND LASTING UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this morning.
Temperatures are running pretty similar to those of 24 hours ago.

Expect a little warmer temperatures across the region today and
Tuesday as the trough over the region weakens and onshore flow
slackens.

Cooler temperatures and stronger onshore flow are expected to
return by mid-week as additional short-wave energy rotating around
the big upper low over British Columbia deepens the trough along
the west coast.

Valley highs in the lower to mid 90s today and Tuesday will cool
back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Large scale pattern will continue to feature upper level trough
and associated low. This feature will drop SE across the region on
Friday into the weekend. Dry forecast still on track thru the
weekend as moisture remains limited and any precipitation progged
to remain north of the local area at this point. Not out of the
question that a few showers could skirt across far northern
portions of the state Friday into Saturday but model differences
still exist. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from Friday into
the weekend with daytime highs returning to near or slightly above
normal for the beginning of September. CEO

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions thru the period. Weak onshore flow will continue
with winds at TAF sites generally 10 kts or less. Gusts to 20 kts
possible across Delta region later this evening into tonight.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this morning.
Temperatures are running pretty similar to those of 24 hours ago.

Expect a little warmer temperatures across the region today and
Tuesday as the trough over the region weakens and onshore flow
slackens.

Cooler temperatures and stronger onshore flow are expected to
return by mid-week as additional short-wave energy rotating around
the big upper low over British Columbia deepens the trough along
the west coast.

Valley highs in the lower to mid 90s today and Tuesday will cool
back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Large scale pattern will continue to feature upper level trough
and associated low. This feature will drop SE across the region on
Friday into the weekend. Dry forecast still on track thru the
weekend as moisture remains limited and any precipitation progged
to remain north of the local area at this point. Not out of the
question that a few showers could skirt across far northern
portions of the state Friday into Saturday but model differences
still exist. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from Friday into
the weekend with daytime highs returning to near or slightly above
normal for the beginning of September. CEO

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions thru the period. Weak onshore flow will continue
with winds at TAF sites generally 10 kts or less. Gusts to 20 kts
possible across Delta region later this evening into tonight.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 311030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this morning.
Temperatures are running pretty similar to those of 24 hours ago.

Expect a little warmer temperatures across the region today and
Tuesday as the trough over the region weakens and onshore flow
slackens.

Cooler temperatures and stronger onshore flow are expected to
return by mid-week as additional short-wave energy rotating around
the big upper low over British Columbia deepens the trough along
the west coast.

Valley highs in the lower to mid 90s today and Tuesday will cool
back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Large scale pattern will continue to feature upper level trough
and associated low. This feature will drop SE across the region on
Friday into the weekend. Dry forecast still on track thru the
weekend as moisture remains limited and any precipitation progged
to remain north of the local area at this point. Not out of the
question that a few showers could skirt across far northern
portions of the state Friday into Saturday but model differences
still exist. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from Friday into
the weekend with daytime highs returning to near or slightly above
normal for the beginning of September. CEO

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions thru the period. Weak onshore flow will continue
with winds at TAF sites generally 10 kts or less. Gusts to 20 kts
possible across Delta region later this evening into tonight.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL GENERALLY SLIDE SOUTH OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IS LOW
GIVEN MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER SHOULD OBTAIN THE
TRADITIONAL EASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BECOME GUSTY...SOUTH AT
KBLH AND WEST AT KIPL...UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TENDENCY FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL GENERALLY SLIDE SOUTH OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IS LOW
GIVEN MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER SHOULD OBTAIN THE
TRADITIONAL EASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BECOME GUSTY...SOUTH AT
KBLH AND WEST AT KIPL...UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TENDENCY FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND POINTS EAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BEFORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT THIS
WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESIDING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ARIZONA
DESERTS...MEANWHILE A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA. A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE OF WHICH APPEARED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO
AROUND 06Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS OF 0930Z
WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NATURALLY THE CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MOST
DESERT LOCALES ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY COURTESY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WON`T NECESSARILY RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH BUT
MOST IMPORTANTLY...WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HARD TO EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHEN IT SIMPLY ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
00Z SOUNDINGS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PWATS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO THE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
DESERTS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS AND SPAWN ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE PHX
METRO AREA. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT OR
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED...I DON`T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT
WON`T BE ACTIVE. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ACTUALLY DRIED OUT /AND HAS BEEN DRY THE PAST
FEW DAYS/...STORM CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NIL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER PROBABILISTIC TOOLS SUGGEST THE BL WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. OF COURSE THE
MISSING INGREDIENT IS A TRIGGER TO KICK OFF STORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE
AND NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INVERTED TROUGHS OR LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WILL HANG ONTO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POPS /HIGHER THAN CLIMO/ THROUGH MID WEEK ON THE PREMISE
THAT STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY COLLIDING OUTFLOWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISN`T MUCH HIGHER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/ ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND
MIXING RATIOS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHEREAS
GEFS AND NAEFS KEEP THIS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND SHIFT IT TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
700-300MB FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD /AROUND 30-40KTS/...I`M
SKEPTICAL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP LATE IN THE WEEK AND POPS HAVE
ALSO BEEN ELEVATED A BIT OVER INHERITED VALUES /MORE IN LINE WITH
CLIMO/. COULD END UP SEEING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COULD JUST AS EASILY SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS POSITIONS
ITSELF. THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES IS LOW. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE
RAW UN-CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL GENERALLY SLIDE SOUTH OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IS LOW
GIVEN MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER SHOULD OBTAIN THE
TRADITIONAL EASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BECOME GUSTY...SOUTH AT
KBLH AND WEST AT KIPL...UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TENDENCY FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 310441
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
941 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and light winds over NorCal this eveing. No updated
needed.

&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday through Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 310441
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
941 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and light winds over NorCal this eveing. No updated
needed.

&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday through Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSGX 310412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN THERE WILL BE ONLY
MINOR TEMPERATURES VARIATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE COOLING TREND CONTINUED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS DOWNHILL SLIDE WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO SO-CAL ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MARINE STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS
GETTING A FOOTHOLD AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS JUST WEST OF CAMP PENDLETON AND OCEANSIDE. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SPINS UP A COASTAL EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. BY SUNRISE MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

THIS WEEK WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. HEIGHT FALLS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DESERTS THIS WEEK.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND....IN THE TROPICS...A
DISTURBANCE 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS A 70%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THE LONG RANGE ECMWF AND GFS BRING MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FORCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF SO-
CAL AND INTO SONORA MEXICO AND ARIZONA. BUT IF THE WEST COAST TROUGH
WEAKENS OR WINDS UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF ITS CURRENT
POSITION...THEN SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

310400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL SPREAD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH 07Z...INCLUDING TO KSAN...THEN UP TO 30 MI INLAND
BY 13Z. BASES WILL BE 1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS OR FOG COULD REACH KONT 12-15Z. MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI...EXCEPT LOCAL VIS 1-3 MI WILL OCCUR IN
THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM AND KCNO. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR
BY 17Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND MONDAY
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. VIS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND. AREAS OF WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT
WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOC UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LLWS.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPIRE
AT 2 AM MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 310412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN THERE WILL BE ONLY
MINOR TEMPERATURES VARIATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE COOLING TREND CONTINUED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS DOWNHILL SLIDE WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO SO-CAL ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MARINE STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN ABSENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS
GETTING A FOOTHOLD AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS JUST WEST OF CAMP PENDLETON AND OCEANSIDE. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SPINS UP A COASTAL EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND MOVE ACROSS COASTAL
ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. BY SUNRISE MONDAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

THIS WEEK WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS. HEIGHT FALLS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND DESERTS THIS WEEK.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND....IN THE TROPICS...A
DISTURBANCE 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS A 70%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THE LONG RANGE ECMWF AND GFS BRING MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FORCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF SO-
CAL AND INTO SONORA MEXICO AND ARIZONA. BUT IF THE WEST COAST TROUGH
WEAKENS OR WINDS UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF ITS CURRENT
POSITION...THEN SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

310400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF BKN/OVC STRATUS WILL SPREAD ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH 07Z...INCLUDING TO KSAN...THEN UP TO 30 MI INLAND
BY 13Z. BASES WILL BE 1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE STRATUS OR FOG COULD REACH KONT 12-15Z. MOST
VIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MI...EXCEPT LOCAL VIS 1-3 MI WILL OCCUR IN
THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY KRNM AND KCNO. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR
BY 17Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND MONDAY
EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. VIS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND. AREAS OF WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT
WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAN GORGONIO PASS AND THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS THROUGH 11Z WITH ASSOC UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND LLWS.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WERE OCCURRING AT SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL EXPIRE
AT 2 AM MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310408
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
THIS WEEK WITH CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAD SHIFTED EAST EARLIER TODAY BRINGING
DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA (USUALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE PHOENIX METRO)...RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HELD TIGHT OVER CNTRL AND ERN ARIZONA
(MIXING RATIOS AOA 10 G/KG). 00Z KPSR SOUNDING DATA INDICATED A
RATHER NOTABLE CAPPING INHIBITION AT THE H7 LEVEL (CINH NEAR 50
J/KG)...THOUGH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ASCENT SUPPORTED
DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES. WITH DCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS WERE COMMON HELPING ERODE
THE CAPPING INVERSION AND MIX MOISTURE TO THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NRN PINAL AND POSSIBLY
PARTS OF SRN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MUCH OF MARICOPA
COUNTY WORKED OVER BY OUTFLOWS AND CONVECTION. IN GENERAL...POPS
WERE CONSOLIDATED TO MATCH RADAR TRENDS AND CONCEPTUALLY ADJUSTED
HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE BLENDS. OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION EFFECTS WERE NEEDED FOR OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/236 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015/
STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL GENERALLY SLIDE SOUTH OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IS LOW
GIVEN MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER SHOULD OBTAIN THE
TRADITIONAL EASTERLY FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BECOME GUSTY...SOUTH AT
KBLH AND WEST AT KIPL...UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH TENDENCY FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310335
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310335
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PDT SUNDAY...A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...LOCALLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED. WINDS
WERE GUSTING AS HIGH AS 37 MPH AT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT THIS
EVENING. THESE BRISK WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
AND HAVE HELPED LIMIT COASTAL LOW CLOUD FORMATION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
EASE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.

WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SONOMA COUNTY AIRPORT HAD AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
90 DEGREES...WHICH WAS THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE BAY AREA TODAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND MOST SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 310252
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS BETWEEN GAVIOTA AND GOLETA. THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COAST ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE
CITY OF SANTA BARBARA HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH COOLER.
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND
RANGED FROM A COUPLE DEGREES TO -12 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEEP  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PERSIST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX
INDICATED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1300 FT DEEP WITH A
RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ABOVE. EXPECTING THE MARINE LAYER TO
DEEP TO AT LEAST 1500 FT BY MORNING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN EDDY
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SMALL SPECK OF STRATUS OVER THE ORANGE
COUNTY COAST. BASED ON THE EDDY AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER
TO THE REGION...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH INCREASING...IN
PART DUE TO THE EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AS FAR AS THE
CENTRAL COAST...ITS A TOUGH CALL. I SUSPECT BY LATE TONIGHT SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LOMPOC AND SANTA MARIA...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE OF THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY REACHING 90. THE LA BASIN WILL BE MUCH MORE MILDER AS HIGH
TEMPS FOR DOWNTOWN L.A. ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE SOME
MODEST COOLING FOR TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOR COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT THAT
THE NAM WRF PICKS UP ON FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
QUIET PATTERN AHEAD MOST OF THIS WEEK. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT PERIOD FOR COAST AND
COASTAL VALEYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2340Z

AT 2330Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR OR LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE  A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE KSMX
AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS FOR KPRB AS
WELL AFTER 11Z-16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 09Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VENTURA COASTAL TAF SITES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OFR
LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/30
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 310252
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
750 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS BETWEEN GAVIOTA AND GOLETA. THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA COAST ARE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER THE
CITY OF SANTA BARBARA HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH COOLER.
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND
RANGED FROM A COUPLE DEGREES TO -12 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEEP  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PERSIST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX
INDICATED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1300 FT DEEP WITH A
RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ABOVE. EXPECTING THE MARINE LAYER TO
DEEP TO AT LEAST 1500 FT BY MORNING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN EDDY
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY DOES SHOW A SMALL SPECK OF STRATUS OVER THE ORANGE
COUNTY COAST. BASED ON THE EDDY AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER
TO THE REGION...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LOW
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE LA COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH INCREASING...IN
PART DUE TO THE EDDY CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AS FAR AS THE
CENTRAL COAST...ITS A TOUGH CALL. I SUSPECT BY LATE TONIGHT SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LOMPOC AND SANTA MARIA...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE OF THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY REACHING 90. THE LA BASIN WILL BE MUCH MORE MILDER AS HIGH
TEMPS FOR DOWNTOWN L.A. ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE SOME
MODEST COOLING FOR TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS FOR COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT THAT
THE NAM WRF PICKS UP ON FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
QUIET PATTERN AHEAD MOST OF THIS WEEK. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT PERIOD FOR COAST AND
COASTAL VALEYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2340Z

AT 2330Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR OR LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE  A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE KSMX
AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS FOR KPRB AS
WELL AFTER 11Z-16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 09Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VENTURA COASTAL TAF SITES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OFR
LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/30
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310105
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-
EAST ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY (HAZY VERSUS NON-HAZY
CONDITIONS) CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 310044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 310044
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
544 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:27 PM PDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BRIGHTNESS DISCONTINUITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP IN ADDITION TO PATCHY COASTAL
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING PER THE GFS MODEL. IN ITS WAKE A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN TENDING TO SLOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TIL 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 302339
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2340Z

AT 2330Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR OR LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE  A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE KSMX
AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS FOR KPRB AS
WELL AFTER 11Z-16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 09Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VENTURA COASTAL TAF SITES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OFR
LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 302339
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2340Z

AT 2330Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN
VFR OR LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE  A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/LIFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE KSMX
AREA BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS FOR KPRB AS
WELL AFTER 11Z-16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 09Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE VENTURA COASTAL TAF SITES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OFR
LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KEKA 302252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM OVER A HALF INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY TO ONLY TENTH ON THE DEL NORTE COAST
AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOISTURE POOLING INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MOST AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EXCEPT SOUTHERN INTERIOR
MENDOCINO WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR...PARTICULARLY ALOFT ON RIDGE TOPS.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MIX ONTO COASTAL LAND AREAS REDUCING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE ITSELF BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALLOWING
SHORTWAVES TO PINWHEEL SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF PREDICT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP DEL NORTE COUNTY
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. CONSIDERING
THIS...HAVE MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FINAL VORT MAX MOVING
INTO OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVEN WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THIS VORT MAX/UPPER LOW TO SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY PREDICTED WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR DEL
NORTE...HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES. FOR NOW THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY FOR THURSDAY.

A QUICK WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM ALOFT. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 22Z.
CONDITIONS HAVE RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..WITH
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING VC KCEC WITH STRATO-CU ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIDGES. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT AT KCEC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE KLAMATH AND
TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A NW SWELL IS
CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FT AROUND 17 SECONDS. AT THE SAME TIME...NORTHERLY
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
WILL INTERACT WITH THE NW SWELL PRODUCING A MIXED NW SWELL OF 7 TO
10 FT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THE BUILDING CONDITIONS. WINDS AND
RESULTANT SEAS WILL DECREASE SOME BY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NNW WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AS A
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WARMER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS INDICATE A DRY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN ONTO MOUNTAIN
RIDGE TOPS MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWER MAX HUMIDITIES. THE NAM
INDICATES RH VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH SEEMS TOO LOW.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE IMETS...RH WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND
THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH REINFORCES ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR LIGHT RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE DRYING
TREND PREDICTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL SUFFER AGAIN AND
MAY BECOME RATHER POOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT. RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 302252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM OVER A HALF INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY TO ONLY TENTH ON THE DEL NORTE COAST
AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOISTURE POOLING INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MOST AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA EXCEPT SOUTHERN INTERIOR
MENDOCINO WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR...PARTICULARLY ALOFT ON RIDGE TOPS.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO MIX ONTO COASTAL LAND AREAS REDUCING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE TROUGH WILL REINFORCE ITSELF BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALLOWING
SHORTWAVES TO PINWHEEL SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF PREDICT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP DEL NORTE COUNTY
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. CONSIDERING
THIS...HAVE MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FINAL VORT MAX MOVING
INTO OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND EXTREME
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVEN WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THIS VORT MAX/UPPER LOW TO SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY PREDICTED WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR DEL
NORTE...HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES. FOR NOW THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY FOR THURSDAY.

A QUICK WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM ALOFT. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 22Z.
CONDITIONS HAVE RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..WITH
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING VC KCEC WITH STRATO-CU ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIDGES. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT AT KCEC WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE KLAMATH AND
TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A NW SWELL IS
CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FT AROUND 17 SECONDS. AT THE SAME TIME...NORTHERLY
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
WILL INTERACT WITH THE NW SWELL PRODUCING A MIXED NW SWELL OF 7 TO
10 FT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THE BUILDING CONDITIONS. WINDS AND
RESULTANT SEAS WILL DECREASE SOME BY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NNW WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AS A
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WARMER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS INDICATE A DRY LAYER WILL MIX DOWN ONTO MOUNTAIN
RIDGE TOPS MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWER MAX HUMIDITIES. THE NAM
INDICATES RH VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH SEEMS TOO LOW.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE IMETS...RH WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND
THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH REINFORCES ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT FOR LIGHT RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE DRYING
TREND PREDICTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL SUFFER AGAIN AND
MAY BECOME RATHER POOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT. RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
236 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LATER ONSET TO THE
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AROUND 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH NEAR
KIWA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH AN ABRUPT
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT IS ALSO LIKELY AROUND 03-04Z...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KIPL OR KBLH THROUGH
MONDAY

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
236 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LATER ONSET TO THE
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AROUND 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH NEAR
KIWA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH AN ABRUPT
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT IS ALSO LIKELY AROUND 03-04Z...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KIPL OR KBLH THROUGH
MONDAY

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
236 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LATER ONSET TO THE
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AROUND 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH NEAR
KIWA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH AN ABRUPT
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT IS ALSO LIKELY AROUND 03-04Z...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KIPL OR KBLH THROUGH
MONDAY

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
236 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA AND POINTS EAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LATER ONSET TO THE
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AROUND 03Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH NEAR
KIWA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH AN ABRUPT
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT IS ALSO LIKELY AROUND 03-04Z...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KIPL OR KBLH THROUGH
MONDAY

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302109
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
209 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302109
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
209 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF UL ASCENT COUPLED WITH A STILL FAVORABLE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA HAS SO FAR SUPPORTED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AZ.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE WITH ONLY SOME MORE STOUT CU AND A FEW RADAR ECHOES
MANAGING TO POP-UP OVER THE EVER-FAVORED...OR AT LEAST IT SEEMS THAT
WAY THIS SEASON...PINAL/PIMA/MARICOPA BORDER AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. MIDDAY STREAMLINE OVERLAYS AND STORM MOTION SO FAR TODAY
PLACE THE ANTICYCLONIC ML HIGH CIRC FURTHER TO THE NE THAN IT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. ON TOP OF THAT...SPC MESOANALYSIS POINTING TO
SOME STRIPS OF CIN RUNNING ACROSS N-S ACROSS LA PAZ/YUMA AND
PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES ATTM...WHERE NORTHERN AZ REMAINS CIN FREE
AND AIDED BY THE WEAK TROUGH JET CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY`S STORM FORECAST...LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST OF PHOENIX FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTN AS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM FLOW
AROUND THE ML CIRC CENTER.

ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE
PHX METRO RELYING ON OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO ACCESS THE LIMITED...BUT
STILL AVAILABLE...500-750 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA.
ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME MARICOPA CTY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE THE NOTICEABLE DRYLINE/GRADIENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
AZ. RESULTING DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS INITIAL PUSH OF DRYING...PART OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN IN CA COAST...ARE STAYING
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROUGHING SETTLES FURTHER ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. WHERE EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE CALLED FOR THIS FLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AND SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURFACE TO OUR EAST AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FCST GUIDANCE STILL POINT TO
A SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND LL TO ML MIXING RATIOS THRU MIDWEEK.
CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE ML AND UL WON`T BE OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LIMITED
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. OTHERWISE...BEST
LOCALES FOR STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY BY DAY. MONDAY WILL
STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 107
EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL DESERTS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES...AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL CA
OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A NOTICABLE
COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RUNNING 5-10 DEG F BELOW YDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD HAVE CLEARED OUT.

12Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A
TROUGHY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES RISE AND THE PREVAILING AIRMASS WARMS. THE
TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH LINGERS OVER CA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A BIT EACH
DAY...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD. RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS/DESERT AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLDU WITH LOCAL VIS
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL CA
OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A NOTICABLE
COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RUNNING 5-10 DEG F BELOW YDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD HAVE CLEARED OUT.

12Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A
TROUGHY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES RISE AND THE PREVAILING AIRMASS WARMS. THE
TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH LINGERS OVER CA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A BIT EACH
DAY...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD. RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS/DESERT AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLDU WITH LOCAL VIS
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL CA
OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A NOTICABLE
COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RUNNING 5-10 DEG F BELOW YDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE AREAS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD HAVE CLEARED OUT.

12Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN A
TROUGHY PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES RISE AND THE PREVAILING AIRMASS WARMS. THE
TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH LINGERS OVER CA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER A BIT EACH
DAY...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD. RH PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO SMOKE. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS/DESERT AND LOCALLY UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLDU WITH LOCAL VIS
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSTO 302058
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
158 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302058
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
158 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302058
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
158 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302058
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
158 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 302058
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
158 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough over the region today will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler than
normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look like
it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time. The
trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens towards the area.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

A large upper trough will continue to impact the region Thursday
into Friday with below normal temperatures. However no
precipitation is expected. Thursday daytime highs will range about
5 to 12 degrees below normal with valley highs in the low to mid
80s...higher terrain in the 60s and 70s. After Thursday, a
gradual warming trend will occur through the weekend. By Friday
temperatures will only be a few degrees below normal. Over the
weekend, the trough will weaken and lift northeastward away from our
area. By Sunday, daytime highs will be slightly above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 90s...higher terrain in the 70s and
80s (around 10 degrees warmer than Thursday). JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue. Winds will be lighter in the next 24
hours. TAF sites will generally be around 10 kts or less with weak
onshore flow. Winds through the Carquinez Strait and western
Delta region will range 10-20 kts this evening and then weaken by
Monday morning. JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 302053
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
153 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THIS
MORNING RELATIVELY WELL. THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER THAN THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. BUT THE
DESCENDING AND COOLER AIR ADVANCING SOUTH WILL REINFORCE THE COOLING
TREND MONDAY AS WELL AS CREATE GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND THE LEESIDE SOUTH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER BY 3 TO 10 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING REINFORCING COOLER AIR. THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. AN ALREADY WEAK CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUD FIELD WILL BE PATCHY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED...WITHIN A CATALINA EDDY...OVER THE LA BASIN.
OTHERWISE MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED EACH NIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BELOW 1500-2000 FEET.


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MADE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS UPSTREAM AND OVER THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED CLIMATOLOGY POPS AT THIS TIME OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MINOR
TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24
DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA CHANNEL
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXNPWLOX)

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 302048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
148 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 302048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
148 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 302048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
148 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 302048
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
148 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:46 PM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PATCHY AT BEST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REBOUND. OTHERWISE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INLAND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE...LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE (ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL DRIZZLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS).

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED A WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN SHIFT TO OCCUR LATER (LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND). WITH
THIS...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALSO...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND A BIT AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE BOUNDARY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST
COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS
BY MIDWEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY ONCE AGAIN AT MIDDAY. MARINE STRATUS WAS
VERY PATCHY AND HAD MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EVEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA HAVE THINNED. WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO THE DESERTS. THEY WERE UP TO 3 MBS TO NV AND 6 MBS TO THE LOWER
DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT
PASSES. AT NOON A GUST TO 40 MPH WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS.

COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDDY MAY BE BEGINNING TO FORM
ALREADY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH 24 HOUR DROPS
OF 4-7 DEGREES COMMON AT NOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOW A WELL
DEVELOPED EDDY IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHT BY 12Z ON MON. THIS SHOULD
HELP THE STRATUS TO FORM AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS BY MORNING. FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ENSURE
WIDESPREAD COOLING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO TUE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM
NW MEXICO...NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE TROUGH WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BECAUSE OF THE
MILD SEA SURFACE...BUT FAR INLAND...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE
IT SHOULD BE COOLER OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
USUALLY MEANS SW FLOW ALOFT AND HOLDS THE MONSOON AT BAY. SO IT
LOOKS DRY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE OF A QUESTION THOUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM NV TO SAN NEXT WEEKEND TURNING OFFSHORE
AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND FEEDS COLD
AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE ONSHORE WEAKENS TOO MUCH...OR WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS...IT CAN MAKE FOR VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS SOCAL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT REGARDING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...

301945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES
900-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION
STRENGTH AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE AND CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW
CIGS/VIS. CLEARING OF STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE 31/1500-1800 UTC
TIME-PERIOD.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY 31/1200 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

1245 PM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 19 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301812
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 301812
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301812
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 301812
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT LITTLE TO
NO OFFSHORE STRATUS FIELD. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING A
DEEP LAYER OF MARINE AIR IN PLACE WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS
TONIGHT SO HAVE MOVED UP THE TIME FOR RETURN IN THE FORECAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 0900Z
AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. FIRST GUESS AT
TOMORROW MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
0500Z AT WHICH POINT MVFR BKN-OVC015 IS ANTICIPATED. IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 1100Z. FIRST GUESS AT TOMORROW MORNING
BURN OFF IS 1700Z. THIS AFTERNOON`S SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...BUOY REPORTS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF LOCAL WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL SCENARIO FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER RIP CURRENTS FLARING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISRUPT RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z

AT 1640Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1700 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION WAS AROUND 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WITH A SHALLOW INVERSION AND GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AND SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN SANTA BATRBARA COUNTY...DECIDED TO LIMIT MARINE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO LA COUNTY COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
NEAR KSBA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301758
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1058 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PRIMARILY HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. EXTENDED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC

MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 301701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIGGING INTO THIS AM`S UA...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM
THE CO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH PWATS FROM FLAGSTAFF...PHOENIX
TO TUCSON REPORTING 0.8....1.53...1.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LL
DEWPOINTS STILL AT MONSOON LEVELS...GNLY 8 TO 10C...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MANY SITES
AROUND THE DESERT ELEVATIONS. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO DEPICT
THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE 500MB RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO LOW PRESSURE FEATURES ARE THE DRIVERS FOR
THE REPOSITIONING THE RIDGE...THE FIRST A LOW OVER CENTRAL TX
CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND THE PAC NW TROUGH WHICH HAS SLOWLY
BEGUN TO EXPAND WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK JET STREAK WINDS ALREADY NOTED ON SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EVEN IN LAS VEGAS`S AM BALLOON...WITH 30
PLUS KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IT`S THE MOTION OF THE TWO
LOW FEATURES THAT SHOULD PLAY A HELPING ROLE IN OUR POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MONSOON STORMS IN TODAY`S FORECAST.

THE SINKING OF THE LOW OVER TX AND THE NORTHWARD DRAW OF SUBTLE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAVE AN AREA OF GENERAL
WEAKNESS OR STRETCH OVER ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN BROAD SYNOPTIC
ASCENT. A STILL WARM LL-ML AIRMASS...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL SFC
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...WILL HELP TO GET THINGS STARTED AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MTNS THRU THE DAY. MANY LOWER DESERT LOCALES
FROM AROUND MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RELY ON OUTFLOW
INTERSECTIONS AND COLLISIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WOULD BE TIMING...IN THAT A SLIGHTLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM LAST EVENING`S ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DELAY THE ON-SET
OF ACTIVITY BY A FEW HOURS TODAY. WORKED IN SOME EARLY UPDATES TODAY
TO FINE TUNE THE POP FCST TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR THE 31/00-06Z
PERIOD FROM MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD. AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY...MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO THE AREA...DRAWING DOWN MIXING RATIOS. THE MODELS HAVEN`T
EXACTLY BEEN CHAMPIONS OF DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MONSOON...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT FACTOR OF DRYING WE
COULD SEE BEGINNING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/PDT/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 594DM HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 110 OVER THE HOTTER LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED 111 YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS TROFFING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SO...DESPITE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AND
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF4KM SUGGEST THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...POPS REMAIN AROUND
20 PERCENT OR HIGHER FROM PHOENIX EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROFFING ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND BY TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. BY MIDWEEK THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY IN AREAS EAST OF GLOBE. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY
BY DAY. MONDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 107 EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL
DESERTS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 301701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIGGING INTO THIS AM`S UA...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM
THE CO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH PWATS FROM FLAGSTAFF...PHOENIX
TO TUCSON REPORTING 0.8....1.53...1.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LL
DEWPOINTS STILL AT MONSOON LEVELS...GNLY 8 TO 10C...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MANY SITES
AROUND THE DESERT ELEVATIONS. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO DEPICT
THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE 500MB RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO LOW PRESSURE FEATURES ARE THE DRIVERS FOR
THE REPOSITIONING THE RIDGE...THE FIRST A LOW OVER CENTRAL TX
CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND THE PAC NW TROUGH WHICH HAS SLOWLY
BEGUN TO EXPAND WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK JET STREAK WINDS ALREADY NOTED ON SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EVEN IN LAS VEGAS`S AM BALLOON...WITH 30
PLUS KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IT`S THE MOTION OF THE TWO
LOW FEATURES THAT SHOULD PLAY A HELPING ROLE IN OUR POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MONSOON STORMS IN TODAY`S FORECAST.

THE SINKING OF THE LOW OVER TX AND THE NORTHWARD DRAW OF SUBTLE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAVE AN AREA OF GENERAL
WEAKNESS OR STRETCH OVER ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN BROAD SYNOPTIC
ASCENT. A STILL WARM LL-ML AIRMASS...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL SFC
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...WILL HELP TO GET THINGS STARTED AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MTNS THRU THE DAY. MANY LOWER DESERT LOCALES
FROM AROUND MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RELY ON OUTFLOW
INTERSECTIONS AND COLLISIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WOULD BE TIMING...IN THAT A SLIGHTLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM LAST EVENING`S ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DELAY THE ON-SET
OF ACTIVITY BY A FEW HOURS TODAY. WORKED IN SOME EARLY UPDATES TODAY
TO FINE TUNE THE POP FCST TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR THE 31/00-06Z
PERIOD FROM MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD. AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY...MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO THE AREA...DRAWING DOWN MIXING RATIOS. THE MODELS HAVEN`T
EXACTLY BEEN CHAMPIONS OF DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MONSOON...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT FACTOR OF DRYING WE
COULD SEE BEGINNING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/PDT/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 594DM HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 110 OVER THE HOTTER LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED 111 YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS TROFFING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SO...DESPITE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AND
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF4KM SUGGEST THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...POPS REMAIN AROUND
20 PERCENT OR HIGHER FROM PHOENIX EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROFFING ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND BY TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. BY MIDWEEK THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY IN AREAS EAST OF GLOBE. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY
BY DAY. MONDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 107 EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL
DESERTS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 301701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIGGING INTO THIS AM`S UA...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM
THE CO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH PWATS FROM FLAGSTAFF...PHOENIX
TO TUCSON REPORTING 0.8....1.53...1.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LL
DEWPOINTS STILL AT MONSOON LEVELS...GNLY 8 TO 10C...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MANY SITES
AROUND THE DESERT ELEVATIONS. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO DEPICT
THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE 500MB RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO LOW PRESSURE FEATURES ARE THE DRIVERS FOR
THE REPOSITIONING THE RIDGE...THE FIRST A LOW OVER CENTRAL TX
CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND THE PAC NW TROUGH WHICH HAS SLOWLY
BEGUN TO EXPAND WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK JET STREAK WINDS ALREADY NOTED ON SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EVEN IN LAS VEGAS`S AM BALLOON...WITH 30
PLUS KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IT`S THE MOTION OF THE TWO
LOW FEATURES THAT SHOULD PLAY A HELPING ROLE IN OUR POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MONSOON STORMS IN TODAY`S FORECAST.

THE SINKING OF THE LOW OVER TX AND THE NORTHWARD DRAW OF SUBTLE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAVE AN AREA OF GENERAL
WEAKNESS OR STRETCH OVER ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN BROAD SYNOPTIC
ASCENT. A STILL WARM LL-ML AIRMASS...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL SFC
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...WILL HELP TO GET THINGS STARTED AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MTNS THRU THE DAY. MANY LOWER DESERT LOCALES
FROM AROUND MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RELY ON OUTFLOW
INTERSECTIONS AND COLLISIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WOULD BE TIMING...IN THAT A SLIGHTLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM LAST EVENING`S ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DELAY THE ON-SET
OF ACTIVITY BY A FEW HOURS TODAY. WORKED IN SOME EARLY UPDATES TODAY
TO FINE TUNE THE POP FCST TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR THE 31/00-06Z
PERIOD FROM MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD. AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY...MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO THE AREA...DRAWING DOWN MIXING RATIOS. THE MODELS HAVEN`T
EXACTLY BEEN CHAMPIONS OF DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MONSOON...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT FACTOR OF DRYING WE
COULD SEE BEGINNING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/PDT/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 594DM HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 110 OVER THE HOTTER LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED 111 YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS TROFFING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SO...DESPITE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AND
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF4KM SUGGEST THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...POPS REMAIN AROUND
20 PERCENT OR HIGHER FROM PHOENIX EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROFFING ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND BY TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. BY MIDWEEK THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY IN AREAS EAST OF GLOBE. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY
BY DAY. MONDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 107 EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL
DESERTS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO EVEN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH
CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIGGING INTO THIS AM`S UA...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM
THE CO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH PWATS FROM FLAGSTAFF...PHOENIX
TO TUCSON REPORTING 0.8....1.53...1.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. LL
DEWPOINTS STILL AT MONSOON LEVELS...GNLY 8 TO 10C...AND SFC
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MANY SITES
AROUND THE DESERT ELEVATIONS. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO DEPICT
THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE 500MB RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO LOW PRESSURE FEATURES ARE THE DRIVERS FOR
THE REPOSITIONING THE RIDGE...THE FIRST A LOW OVER CENTRAL TX
CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND THE PAC NW TROUGH WHICH HAS SLOWLY
BEGUN TO EXPAND WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK JET STREAK WINDS ALREADY NOTED ON SITES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EVEN IN LAS VEGAS`S AM BALLOON...WITH 30
PLUS KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IT`S THE MOTION OF THE TWO
LOW FEATURES THAT SHOULD PLAY A HELPING ROLE IN OUR POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MONSOON STORMS IN TODAY`S FORECAST.

THE SINKING OF THE LOW OVER TX AND THE NORTHWARD DRAW OF SUBTLE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAVE AN AREA OF GENERAL
WEAKNESS OR STRETCH OVER ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN BROAD SYNOPTIC
ASCENT. A STILL WARM LL-ML AIRMASS...SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL SFC
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...WILL HELP TO GET THINGS STARTED AGAIN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MTNS THRU THE DAY. MANY LOWER DESERT LOCALES
FROM AROUND MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD WILL LIKELY RELY ON OUTFLOW
INTERSECTIONS AND COLLISIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WOULD BE TIMING...IN THAT A SLIGHTLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM LAST EVENING`S ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DELAY THE ON-SET
OF ACTIVITY BY A FEW HOURS TODAY. WORKED IN SOME EARLY UPDATES TODAY
TO FINE TUNE THE POP FCST TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR THE 31/00-06Z
PERIOD FROM MARICOPA CTY EASTWARD. AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY...MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING SHOULD SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO THE AREA...DRAWING DOWN MIXING RATIOS. THE MODELS HAVEN`T
EXACTLY BEEN CHAMPIONS OF DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MONSOON...SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHAT FACTOR OF DRYING WE
COULD SEE BEGINNING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/PDT/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT 594DM HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 110 OVER THE HOTTER LOWER
DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED 111 YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS TROFFING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZ...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
SO...DESPITE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AND
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF4KM SUGGEST THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...POPS REMAIN AROUND
20 PERCENT OR HIGHER FROM PHOENIX EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROFFING ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND BY TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. BY MIDWEEK THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY IN AREAS EAST OF GLOBE. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY
BY DAY. MONDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 107 EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL
DESERTS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 301616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301616
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AT
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY HAD
EXPIRED THIS MORNING. THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTH TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MONTECITO AND
THEN DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUD FIELD CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY WITHIN WEAK MID
LEVEL ASCENDING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY.

THE FOLLWOING IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.


THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SBA
CHANNEL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KSTO 301611
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
911 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough will remain over the region today. Temperatures
are running a little cooler today down 5 to 10 degrees from
yesterday. A few clouds will move across the interior today
otherwise expect mostly sunny skies.

The current trough over the region will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler
than normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look
like it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time.
The trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens for the interior.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the end of the week. This will likely keep temps
below average. The GFS and EC continues to hint at a deeper
trough trough Thursday bringing precipitation to far northern CA
near the OR border, but the model consensus leaves things dry
further south.

The trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast over the
weekend allowing short-wave ridging to rebuild across NorCal. This
may allow temps to climb back above average with the warmest
Valley readings returning to the mid 90s.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds cont. Generally light winds with gusts 15-25 mph
through the Carquinez Strait and W Delta.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 301611
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
911 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with mostly below normal temperatures this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad trough will remain over the region today. Temperatures
are running a little cooler today down 5 to 10 degrees from
yesterday. A few clouds will move across the interior today
otherwise expect mostly sunny skies.

The current trough over the region will lift northeast this
evening but another trough will drop down along the coast from
Canada Tuesday and Wednesday to help keep temperatures cooler
than normal through at least mid week. This trough does not look
like it will bring any precipitation to the interior at this time.
The trough will likely generate breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as it deepens for the interior.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

NorCal will remain under the influence of a large scale trough
pattern through the end of the week. This will likely keep temps
below average. The GFS and EC continues to hint at a deeper
trough trough Thursday bringing precipitation to far northern CA
near the OR border, but the model consensus leaves things dry
further south.

The trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast over the
weekend allowing short-wave ridging to rebuild across NorCal. This
may allow temps to climb back above average with the warmest
Valley readings returning to the mid 90s.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds cont. Generally light winds with gusts 15-25 mph
through the Carquinez Strait and W Delta.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS DISORGANIZED
AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER
THE AREA AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT
CIGS OVER SFO AND THE APPROACH EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS CLEARING AFT 17Z.
WEST WINDS TO 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY CIGS OVER MRY OTHERWISE
STRATUS IS STAYING OUT OF MRY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS OVER MRY
SHOULD CLEAR AFT 15Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ON WEST FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN QUICKLY PULL
SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. THE HIGHEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND THE PERIOD INCREASES
FROM 15 TO 18 SECONDS. SWIMMERS CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT SHOULD
SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO ESCAPE THE RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MARIN...SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO
COASTLINE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT`S NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS DISORGANIZED
AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER
THE AREA AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT
CIGS OVER SFO AND THE APPROACH EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS CLEARING AFT 17Z.
WEST WINDS TO 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY CIGS OVER MRY OTHERWISE
STRATUS IS STAYING OUT OF MRY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS OVER MRY
SHOULD CLEAR AFT 15Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ON WEST FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN QUICKLY PULL
SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. THE HIGHEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND THE PERIOD INCREASES
FROM 15 TO 18 SECONDS. SWIMMERS CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT SHOULD
SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO ESCAPE THE RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:02 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...PROMOTING INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON



000
FXUS66 KSGX 301550
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...WITH THE COOLING MORE NOTICEABLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR...
TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER DAYS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED
MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CLOUDS
AND FOG WELL INTO THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...MARINE STRATUS WAS VERY PATCHY AND
DISSIPATED ON LAND QUICKLY. AT 830 AM PDT...A THIN STRIP OF STRATUS
REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH A FEW PATCHES IN
ORANGE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SKIES WERE CLEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS...NE ACROSS THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NV. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 5 DEGREE C MARINE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 1100 FT. THIS WAS ABOUT 150 FT DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE IN THE INVERSION WAS 26.8 DEGREES
C...WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE TRENDS CONTINUE TO THE DESERTS WITH 1-2 MBS TO NV AND 4-5
MBS TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING TO AROUND 35
MPH AGAIN LOCALLY THROUGH THE DESERT PASSES THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND QUITE WARM
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES...MID 80S AND
90S A FEW MILES INLAND...TO 95-100 FAR INLAND AND ACROSS THE HIGH
DESERTS. OVER THE LOWER DESERTS MAX TEMPS OF 105-110 ARE EXPECTED.
WE ARE ON EDDY WATCH NOW. THE MODELS SHOW IT SPINNING UP. ONCE IT
DOES...COOLING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT STRETCHED FROM NW MEXICO...NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COVERED
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE RIDGE INCHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EDDY OVER
THE CA BIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE
LAYER DEEPENS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUE. WHILE SOME COOLING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...IT MAY NOT BE AS
NOTICEABLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS DUE TO THE
MILD SEA SURFACE AND THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE MARINE STRATUS.

FOR THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS...IT WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY BOTH OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE STRONG ANCHOR HIGH ALONG 160W DOES NOT
BUDGE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR
KEEPS THE MONSOON AT BAY AND USUALLY FAVORS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OTHER LOCAL METEOROLOGY LIKE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND THE CATALINA
EDDY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE SUMMERY...AND NOT
POSE ANY COMPLICATIONS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION... 301500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF BKN STRATUS
800-1100 FT MSL WITHIN 15 SM INLAND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THROUGH 1700
UTC...WITH OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000
FT MSL THROUGH 31/0300 UTC. 31/0300-1500 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING 20 SM...TO LOCALLY 30 SM...INLAND...WITH BASES 900-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. MARINE LAYER INVERSION STRENGTH
AROUND 5 DEG C. FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND
CIG HEIGHTS/VIS IS MODERATE-TO-HIGH...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
SMALL CHANCE THAT KONT WILL EXPERIENCE LOW CIGS/VIS.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SW TO W WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT ALONG
MTN RIDGES...THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...ALONG THE DESERT MTN
SLOPES AND INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE MOD-STG
UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED
VIS AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 AM...LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SAN CLEMENTE
BASIN BUOY SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 17 KT...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS.
THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301243
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...SINCE GOOD COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED THERE ON SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELPED SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY...BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT
MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 301143
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS DISORGANIZED
AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER
THE AREA AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT
CIGS OVER SFO AND THE APPROACH EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS CLEARING AFT 17Z.
WEST WINDS TO 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY CIGS OVER MRY OTHERWISE
STRATUS IS STAYING OUT OF MRY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS OVER MRY
SHOULD CLEAR AFT 15Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ON WEST FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN QUICKLY PULL
SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. THE HIGHEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND THE PERIOD INCREASES
FROM 15 TO 18 SECONDS. SWIMMERS CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT SHOULD
SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO ESCAPE THE RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
SAN FRANCISCO BAY. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI/LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301143
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEPT ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS
SETTLED ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES DRIER IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE PRODUCT
SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS BOTH ALONG THE COAST...INTO THE EAST BAY AND
SANTA CLARA VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BURN-OFF FAIRLY FAST
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. MANY SPOTS COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED.

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEEK FOR OUR REGION AS
SYNOPTICALLY A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL INLAND WHILE COASTAL
SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND
THE ONSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY INCREASES. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF SHIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO INDICATION OF RAIN RETURNING TO OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS DISORGANIZED
AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS SETTLED OVER
THE AREA AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT
CIGS OVER SFO AND THE APPROACH EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS CLEARING AFT 17Z.
WEST WINDS TO 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY CIGS OVER MRY OTHERWISE
STRATUS IS STAYING OUT OF MRY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS OVER MRY
SHOULD CLEAR AFT 15Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ON WEST FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN QUICKLY PULL
SWIMMERS OUT TO SEA. THE HIGHEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND THE PERIOD INCREASES
FROM 15 TO 18 SECONDS. SWIMMERS CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT SHOULD
SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO ESCAPE THE RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
SAN FRANCISCO BAY. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI/LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 301128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...WHERE BETTER COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED ON
SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELP SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...WHERE BETTER COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED ON
SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELP SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1130Z

AT 0812Z AT KLAX THE MARINE LAYER WAS 1200 FEET. THE INVERSION TOP
WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 06Z THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS FOR KLAX...KLGB...KSMX AND KSBP WHEN A RETURN OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

STRONG LOCALIZED CANYON WINDS WILL AFFECT KSBA AND VCNTY AFTER 00Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AND
TIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
423 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY
TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH CENTRAL DESERTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OR
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS AT 594DM HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 110
OVER THE HOTTER LOWER DESERTS. PHOENIX REACHED 111 YESTERDAY.
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY TODAY AS TROFFING ALOFT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ...WITH PWAT BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES. 2 AM SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. SO...DESPITE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...MLCAPE AND HEATING TO ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF4KM SUGGEST THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WILL SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THUS...POPS REMAIN AROUND 20 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FROM PHOENIX EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STARTING ON MONDAY...OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE START OF A GRADUAL
DRYING AND COOLING TREND AS TROFFING ALOFT SETS UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND GIVES A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SERN CA AND
ARIZONA. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND BY TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. BY MIDWEEK THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY IN AREAS EAST OF GLOBE. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY LOWER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF DAY
BY DAY. MONDAY WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 107 EXPECTED AT PHOENIX BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE CENTRAL
DESERTS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 104 DEGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A BIT OF A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST OUT AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ARIZONA DESERTS LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE WEEKEND ACCORDINGLY...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN CLIMO VALUES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DISSIPATED BUT A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE-DAY
STORMS CIRCLING THE VALLEY...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING UPON KIWA AFTER
02Z-03Z. OUTFLOWS A POSSIBILITY AT ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS AND I
INDICATED AN EARLIER THAN USUAL SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT IPL OR BLH THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DISPLACE THE
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...BRECKENRIDGE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
421 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 301121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
421 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
421 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 301121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
421 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REDWOOD COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE AXIS OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER
LIFT IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARS TO LINE UP WELL WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE REDWOOD COAST AROUND 5
AM AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES FARTHER ONSHORE. AS OF 315 ONLY VERY LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT COVERAGE DOES APPEAR
TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WHILE RAIN TOTALS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...SOME AREAS IN THE
HILLS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE A QUICK THIRD OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS MORNING...WITH QUICKLY TAPERING TOTALS AS YOU HEAD FARTHER
SOUTH. IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A
MAXIMUM OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN HILLS TO
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS TRINITY COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
MENDOCINO COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MID
AFTERNOON...REVEALING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
PLEASANTLY MILD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...A GENERALLY
DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD CLIP OUR
AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT EITHER WAY WETTING
RAINS SEEM UNLIKELY. /BRC

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KCEC...AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP AT KACV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS TO BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS TO THE SW OF KUKI AND LIGHT S WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED TO THE S. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ENCROACHMENT ON THE
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. /SEC


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THE OFFSHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE WATERS WITH
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FT. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT PERIOD SW WAVES SUBSIDE AND NW SWELL HAS
YET TO RAMP UP. BELIEVE THE THREAT IS MODERATE AT BEST AND IS
CURRENTLY WELL HANDLED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT AT PERIODS OF 11
TO 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NNW WINDS WILL RETURN EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK WITH SHORT PERIOD NW SEAS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE
DOMINANT ESPECIALLY IN THE S OFFSHORE WATERS. /SEC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE AS OF 330 THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN/COASTAL PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY FROM
APPROXIMATELY SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOTALS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND...WITH TOTALS RANGING
FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND GUSTS ALONG
RIDGETOPS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RECOVERIES.

WHILE A BRIEF...MUTED WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS SOMEWHAT HIGH. ONE THING
TO WATCH WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...WHICH
MODELS INDICATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THIS DRY AIR...SOME OF THE RIDGE
TOPS AND MID SLOPES WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
251 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE DRY SOUTHERN END OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THERE...AND POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP ON NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS OF NWRN L.A. COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING.

HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE W-E GRADS AND
COOLING AT 850 AND 950 MB SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO
MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DOWN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
FROM THOSE ON SAT...GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE LESS COOLING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST...WHERE BETTER COOLING ALREADY COMMENCED ON
SAT.

GOOD NLY GRADS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THOSE AREAS.
THOSE CANYON WINDS HELP SEND THE TEMPERATURE AT KSBA TO 94 DEGREES
AT 530 PM YESTERDAY...AFTER TEMPS SPENT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ACROSS
SRN SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE THIS PAST EVENING...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. THE DOWNSLOPING NLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN SOME
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY...AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT/MON
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...WHERE
NLY GRADS WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY EVEN
PUSH INTO SAN GABRIEL...SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS...AND COULD
PUSH INTO THE VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...WHERE UNUSUALLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...LIKELY AFFECTING ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADS ON TUE...CLEARING MAY BE RATHER
SLOW...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD LINGER AT SOME
BEACH AREAS. MAX TEMPS MAY DROP A BIT MORE ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
FAIRLY DEEP. EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN MAX TEMPS...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...

30/330 AM

OUTER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE (NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND) DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INNER WATERS FORECAST. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 301028
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
328 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST BRINGING
COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. STRONGER ONSHORE WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. SATURDAY WAS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH WERE
SLIGHTLY WARMER. AROUND 5 DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SLOW COOLING FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COASTAL STRATUS WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
COVERAGE THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN A SIMILAR
AREA...ALONG THE NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE
WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE THAN SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPENING OF
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THE NIGHT FEW NIGHTS WITH COASTAL
STRATUS PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL EXTEND
INTO THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEXT
WEEKEND.

STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
300945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 700-1000 FT MSL
WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL DEVELOPING WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE  SAN
DIEGO COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING. VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY BELOW 1
MI...POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND COASTAL
MESAS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF ANY CIGS AT KSAN. LOW
CLOUDS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH
BASES 1000-1200 FT MSL FORMING AFTER 31/06Z AND SPREADING 15-20 SM
INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...AREAS OF SURFACE WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40
KT THROUGH  THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG DESERT MTN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL THROUGH MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
300 AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN
     MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT
     INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KHNX 301015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS WEEK THANKS TO A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS WILL AWAKE TO A REFRESHINGLY
COOL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THIS MORNING THANKS TO A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS WRITING AND IS MARKED BY LITTLE MORE THAN
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL INYO COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. IN ITS
WAKE...A ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW IS FLOODING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WITH OCEAN COOLED AIR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE
RATHER QUICKLY BY MIDDAY TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THIS
REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. TEMPERATURE-WISE...TODAY WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 8 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. SMOKE FROM THE FIRES
IN THE SIERRA WILL BE BLOWN INTO NEVADA BY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS FORECAST WINDS AT THE 8K FOOT LEVEL
TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY SO THIS MIGHT BRING SOME
OF THAT SMOKE BACK INTO THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT DURING MIDWEEK AS SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO IT.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE
CA COAST AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE SJ VLY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THESE AREAS...MAX TEMPS COULD FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS SIMILAR TO TODAY. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS
LIFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW
SO WE WOULD EXPECT A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN BONE DRY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z TODAY

LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND
CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT AND LOCALLY UP TO 35 KTS
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BLDU WITH LOCAL VIS AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887
KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964

KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 301011
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
311 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL