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000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 230959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 20Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY N TO E
WINDS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z PERIODIC GUSTY NE WINDS
WITH A TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 230845
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS SEEN IN THE PLOT AND SOUNDING DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND ARIZONA...WITH JUST A
BIT OF MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
PASS THRU THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND IN RESPONSE LOW/MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND EXCEED 30 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 35-40 MPH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT WILL FALL OF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE DESERTS
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S
MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH A HIGH OF 67 FORECAST FOR
PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 585DM OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THRU MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS RISING MAINLY INTO THE MID 70S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN
A BIT THURSDAY...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
AND BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR HIGHS TO RISE SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH AT PHOENIX WILL
CLIMB TO 81...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW
EACH DAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR NIGHTS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOMING VERY MESSY WITH
TIME...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AGREE THAT FAR SERN AZ AND SRN
AZ WILL STAY UNDER A RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU SATURDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
START TO FALL OFF BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 230845
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS SEEN IN THE PLOT AND SOUNDING DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND ARIZONA...WITH JUST A
BIT OF MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
PASS THRU THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND IN RESPONSE LOW/MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND EXCEED 30 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 35-40 MPH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT WILL FALL OF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE DESERTS
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S
MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH A HIGH OF 67 FORECAST FOR
PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 585DM OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THRU MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS RISING MAINLY INTO THE MID 70S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN
A BIT THURSDAY...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
AND BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR HIGHS TO RISE SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH AT PHOENIX WILL
CLIMB TO 81...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW
EACH DAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR NIGHTS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOMING VERY MESSY WITH
TIME...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AGREE THAT FAR SERN AZ AND SRN
AZ WILL STAY UNDER A RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU SATURDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
START TO FALL OFF BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 230647
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PST SATURDAY...WE`RE SEEING SIGNS OF
FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EAST BAY...KCCR FOR INSTANCE REPORTS 2 MILES.
ON THE CENTRAL COAST KWVI NOW REPORTS 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER NORTHERMOST CA WHICH WILL SOON BE
FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
...RAISING THE WMC-SFO GRAD TO APPROX 6 MB. OVER THE NORTH BAY THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM UKI-STS IS 2 MB...SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE AREA AS LONG AS THE
GRADIENT DOES NOT WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM MODEL UNDER-FORECASTED
THE PRESENT GRADIENT BY 1 MB...CORRECTING FOR THIS THE 2 MB GRADIENT
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. BASED ON THIS DECIDED TO
ISSUE AN AMDENDMENT FOR THE KSTS 06Z TAF TO REDUCE THE DURATION OF
IFR...DUE TO FORECASTED FOG...DOWN TO A TEMPO GROUP FROM 12Z TO
16Z SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE FOG PATCHES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF PERSISTING...WATCH OUT FOR QUICKLY REDUCED VSBYS VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUN MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR KSFO
...MIXING WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LESS CERTAIN (LOW CONFIDENCE) THAT
THE MONTEREY AREA TERMINALS WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG PATCHES FROM
ABOUT FORT ORD NORTH TO WATSONVILLE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 230627
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1027 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Clearing skies and abundant surface moisture will cause dense fog
overnight through early Sunday morning. High pressure will build
back in late Sunday and much of next week.

&&

.Discussion... Dense fog with widespread visibility below 1/4
mile has developed over the central and southern Sacramento
valley. This is a challenging forecast since north winds are
expected to gradually increase overnight and the degree to which
this erodes the fog is in question. Since widespread dense fog has
already develop have issued a dense fog advisory for much of the
central and southern Sacramento valley. Have updated the forecast
to reflect current foggy conditions. Will take advisory through 10
am as north winds should sufficiently mix out surface moisture by
that time.

.Previous Discussion (Today through Tuesday)... Frontal system
has moved through Northern California. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours especially for the
mountains. Snow levels continue to be very high close to 8500 feet
but will start to lower as colder air advects into the region
through the afternoon. Not much in the way of snow accumulations
with this system with only a few inches expected for the higher
peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains tonight especially through
this evening and patchy fog developing over the southern CWA
valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Areas of dense Fog through Sunday morning with a mix of
LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will improve vis by
mid/late Sunday morning.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am pst sunday carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...motherlode...northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...northern san joaquin valley...
southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 230627
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1027 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Clearing skies and abundant surface moisture will cause dense fog
overnight through early Sunday morning. High pressure will build
back in late Sunday and much of next week.

&&

.Discussion... Dense fog with widespread visibility below 1/4
mile has developed over the central and southern Sacramento
valley. This is a challenging forecast since north winds are
expected to gradually increase overnight and the degree to which
this erodes the fog is in question. Since widespread dense fog has
already develop have issued a dense fog advisory for much of the
central and southern Sacramento valley. Have updated the forecast
to reflect current foggy conditions. Will take advisory through 10
am as north winds should sufficiently mix out surface moisture by
that time.

.Previous Discussion (Today through Tuesday)... Frontal system
has moved through Northern California. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours especially for the
mountains. Snow levels continue to be very high close to 8500 feet
but will start to lower as colder air advects into the region
through the afternoon. Not much in the way of snow accumulations
with this system with only a few inches expected for the higher
peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains tonight especially through
this evening and patchy fog developing over the southern CWA
valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Areas of dense Fog through Sunday morning with a mix of
LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions. Northerly winds will improve vis by
mid/late Sunday morning.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 10 am pst sunday carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...motherlode...northeast
foothills/sacramento valley...northern san joaquin valley...
southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST
AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z...

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS.  AT KPRB
08Z-17Z THERE IS A THIRTY FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.  AT
KSBA THROUGH 14Z THERE IS A SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND AT KBUR AND KVNY THROUGH 12Z THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 20Z NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH 12Z NE WINDS WITH A TWENTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230510
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 230510
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLOUDINESS. THERE WERE ALSO
CLOUDS BANKED UP ON THE N MTN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAIN AND AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SBA COUNTY S
COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WELL. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...N WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MANY OF THE VLYS AND SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR...THERE IS A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CA COAST THRU MON THEN BUILD
SLOWLY E INTO THE CA COAST FOR TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING GUSTY
NE SANTA ANA WINDS TO SWRN CA. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF VTU/L..A. COUNTIES SUN INTO MON
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THE VTU
COUNTY VLYS...THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...AND SAN FERNANDO VLY FOR SUN
INTO MON AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUN EVENING...BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES FOR THE VTU COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WIND
ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX).

IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO (1040 MB) MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIND ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...ALL THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BLOW ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WELL OFF THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING IN ALL AREAS
SUN THRU TUE. THE WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR MOST OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXRFWLOX) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS OVER SWRN CA...HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT...THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SUN TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MON...TEMPS WILL WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WARMEST CST AND VLYS...WHILE INTERIOR VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/800 PM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY WEAKEN
SOME FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
OR MORE WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO SHORE BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND POINT
MUGU SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SCA GUSTS AND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA
AND WESTWARD BEYOND ANACAPA ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TOMORROW. THE OFFSHORE WIND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO REPEAT
MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
ENE AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGER WINDS MAY SHIFT UP TO THE VENTURA
NEAR-SHORE WATERS. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SWEET/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230451
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE MOVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. BECAUSE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LOWER ELEVATION INLAND LOCATIONS ACCUMULATED LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME INLAND VALLEYS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
BAY AND LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AS MUCH AS A
HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FARED MUCH BETTER WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE SONOMA AND MARIN COUNTY COASTAL HILLS MANAGING TO
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS EVENING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
HILLS. NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THIS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTERS IN.
HOWEVER...THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
VALLEYS TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A COOL START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 135W IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY IN THE COLDEST INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A DRY AND MILD DAY...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS COULD BE THE
START OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE WET WEATHER TO
FOLLOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM EARLY TO
MID WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 230432
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
832 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS...FOLLOWED BY A LULL INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
THE DRY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY. THE
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE COOLER MARINE AIR RETURNS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WERE BLOWING ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS TOPPED 50 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST REPORTED. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 45-55
MPH WERE BEING REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AREA AND OVER THE
NE PORTION OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE APPLE VALLEY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS BUT AT 8
PM PST...HAD TURNED NEUTRAL TO NV WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE TREND.
PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL BASIN AND
OFFSHORE...OTHERWISE THERE WERE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT.

DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE MTNS WERE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S THIS
EVENING ONE LAST TIME BEFORE WE PLUNGE BACK INTO THE CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO TOP 1040 MBS
BY TUE MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS SENDING OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENT
SOARING TO NEARLY 10 MBS ACROSS SAN DIEGO AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES.
THIS GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT AROUND A
BUILDING RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST...TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG
SANTA ANA ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND LATE MON THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALLOWING MARINE AIR
TO RETURN OVER THE COASTAL BASIN...BUT THE MODELS STILL DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY WET WEATHER ACROSS SOCAL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

WINDS...WINDS ARE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN NNE BY MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS TO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
FOR A TIME. ONCE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM PST FOR THE WESTERLY
WINDS EXPIRES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO COVER THE GUSTY NE
WINDS ON SUN. THESE COULD TOP 50 MPH THROUGH THE WIND PRONE CANYONS
OF THE SANTA ANA MTS FOR A TIME.

SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE EAST WINDS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE MON AND
MON NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER EXPECTED WIND
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WIND PRONE FOOTHILLS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...BUT IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS MAY MEET CRITERIA
OVER WIND PRONE NORTHERN AREAS FOR A TIME SO THOSE PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND ORANGE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
230330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MARINE STRATUS WITH
BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONG
SUNDAY IN VICINITY OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS. LLWS LIKELY AT KONT AND
KSNA STARTING AROUND 23/1400 UTC.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND
LLWS. BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE SFC VIS TO 1 SM AT TIMES IN THE
DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY 12 TO
18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...EASTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS DUE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT
THE MOMENT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
BERNARDINO...ORANGE...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY 75
MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS WILL LOWER
INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY
MIDWEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT
     COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB














000
FXUS66 KSGX 230432
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
832 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS...FOLLOWED BY A LULL INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN HIGH WIND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
THE DRY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY. THE
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY BEFORE COOLER MARINE AIR RETURNS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WERE BLOWING ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS TOPPED 50 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH SOME BLOWING DUST REPORTED. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 45-55
MPH WERE BEING REPORTED IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AREA AND OVER THE
NE PORTION OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE APPLE VALLEY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE STILL 4-6 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS BUT AT 8
PM PST...HAD TURNED NEUTRAL TO NV WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE TREND.
PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS WERE TRYING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL BASIN AND
OFFSHORE...OTHERWISE THERE WERE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT.

DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE MTNS WERE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S THIS
EVENING ONE LAST TIME BEFORE WE PLUNGE BACK INTO THE CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO TOP 1040 MBS
BY TUE MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS SENDING OUR OFFSHORE GRADIENT
SOARING TO NEARLY 10 MBS ACROSS SAN DIEGO AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES.
THIS GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT AROUND A
BUILDING RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST...TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG
SANTA ANA ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND LATE MON THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALLOWING MARINE AIR
TO RETURN OVER THE COASTAL BASIN...BUT THE MODELS STILL DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY WET WEATHER ACROSS SOCAL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

WINDS...WINDS ARE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN NNE BY MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS TO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
FOR A TIME. ONCE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3 AM PST FOR THE WESTERLY
WINDS EXPIRES...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO COVER THE GUSTY NE
WINDS ON SUN. THESE COULD TOP 50 MPH THROUGH THE WIND PRONE CANYONS
OF THE SANTA ANA MTS FOR A TIME.

SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE EAST WINDS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE MON AND
MON NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER EXPECTED WIND
GUSTS OVER 58 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WIND PRONE FOOTHILLS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...BUT IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS MAY MEET CRITERIA
OVER WIND PRONE NORTHERN AREAS FOR A TIME SO THOSE PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND ORANGE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
230330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MARINE STRATUS WITH
BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONG
SUNDAY IN VICINITY OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MOD-STG
UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS. LLWS LIKELY AT KONT AND
KSNA STARTING AROUND 23/1400 UTC.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND
LLWS. BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE SFC VIS TO 1 SM AT TIMES IN THE
DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY 12 TO
18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...EASTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS DUE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT
THE MOMENT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
BERNARDINO...ORANGE...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY 75
MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS WILL LOWER
INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY
MIDWEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT
     COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB















000
FXUS65 KPSR 230325
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TROUGHING WAS SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH
THE MOST NOTABLE WAVE PROPAGATING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW
WAS CONSOLIDATING NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SEEPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE RISES WERE
STILL GREATEST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
THICKER CIRRUS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WERE RUNNING FAR BELOW
FORECAST VALUES...AND IN MANY CASE ONLY AROUND 10F AWAY FROM
FORECAST LOWS. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SELECTIVELY CUT MORNING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
PARTS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE PROLONGED MIXING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
HAS NOT BEEN AS EFFICIENT...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THESE
AREAS. OTHER SALIENT WEATHER GRIDS NEEDED LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230325
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TROUGHING WAS SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH
THE MOST NOTABLE WAVE PROPAGATING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW
WAS CONSOLIDATING NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SEEPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE RISES WERE
STILL GREATEST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
THICKER CIRRUS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WERE RUNNING FAR BELOW
FORECAST VALUES...AND IN MANY CASE ONLY AROUND 10F AWAY FROM
FORECAST LOWS. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SELECTIVELY CUT MORNING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
PARTS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE PROLONGED MIXING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
HAS NOT BEEN AS EFFICIENT...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THESE
AREAS. OTHER SALIENT WEATHER GRIDS NEEDED LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230325
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TROUGHING WAS SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH
THE MOST NOTABLE WAVE PROPAGATING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW
WAS CONSOLIDATING NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SEEPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE RISES WERE
STILL GREATEST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
THICKER CIRRUS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WERE RUNNING FAR BELOW
FORECAST VALUES...AND IN MANY CASE ONLY AROUND 10F AWAY FROM
FORECAST LOWS. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SELECTIVELY CUT MORNING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
PARTS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE PROLONGED MIXING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
HAS NOT BEEN AS EFFICIENT...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THESE
AREAS. OTHER SALIENT WEATHER GRIDS NEEDED LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230325
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TROUGHING WAS SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH
THE MOST NOTABLE WAVE PROPAGATING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW
WAS CONSOLIDATING NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SEEPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CALIFORNIA. PRESSURE RISES WERE
STILL GREATEST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD SPILL SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
THICKER CIRRUS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WERE RUNNING FAR BELOW
FORECAST VALUES...AND IN MANY CASE ONLY AROUND 10F AWAY FROM
FORECAST LOWS. GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SELECTIVELY CUT MORNING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
PARTS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE
GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE PROLONGED MIXING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
HAS NOT BEEN AS EFFICIENT...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THESE
AREAS. OTHER SALIENT WEATHER GRIDS NEEDED LITTLE TO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ






000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 230137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
537 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM PST SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENTLY REPORTED. SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL W-NW WINDS ARE FAIRLY
WELL LINKED...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-COUPLE AS NIGHT-TIME
COOLING SETS IN. AT PRESENT A NW SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO DRY THE
NORTH BAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE HUMDIITY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION VERY LATE TONIGHT. PER
MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WINDS IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 08Z WHEN THE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO
2 TO 5 KNOTS. VERY LIGHT MIXING IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG VERSUS CALM
WINDS WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR INSTANCES OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING SHOULD
BE PATCHY AT BEST AS PROCESSES FOR EITHER ADVECTION FOG OR RADIATIONAL
FOG LOOK TO BE TEMPERED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST.  WEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP RECENTLY WITH GUSTS JUST UP OVER 20 KNOTS. THE
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE
TIMING IS LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ANY ADDITIONAL
TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA COULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY INCREASED
WEST WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 230031 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 230031 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...23/0015Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU SUN AT KSBA...KOXR...KLAX...KLGB...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
ANF KPMD. FOR KPRB...THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z
TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUN. FOR KSBP AND KSMX...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ABOUT 03Z-04Z...BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA FROM 02Z-13Z SUN DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD AFFECT KBUR AND
ESPECIALLY KVNY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TIMES AT KBUR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW
WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NE ON SUN AND BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING
DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN EVENING. N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 05Z TO 20Z SUN.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUN AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ABOUT 14Z-21Z SUN...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 230016
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

Cloud cover decreasing and showers diminishing late this afternoon
and evening as ridge of high pressure starts building into the
area. Southerly winds turning to Northerly with the he strongest
winds are expected along the west side of the Sacramento Valley
Sunday. Fog expected to develop in the morning but northerly
winds may keep it from becoming widespread (confined more to east
side of valley and foothills). Visibilities should decrease after
midnight then improve by noon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 222348 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23 2014...FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS...NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222348 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23 2014...FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS...NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222348 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23 2014...FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS...NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222348 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23 2014...FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS...NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222331
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222331
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222331
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 222331
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
331 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
MOSTLY FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH...THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG VALLEY
FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN WAS OBSERVED FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD...WITH NEARLY THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
YOSEMITE VALLEY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...BAKERSFIELD MAY PICK UP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. BEAR PEAK IN TULARE COUNTY AT 8,200 FEET
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WHILE THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND
DESERT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE
HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND NMM INDICATE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 03Z.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AND CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH CONTINUED WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN IN THE VALLEY...IT IS
ENOUGH TO ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTES.

LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL VERY LOW...SO THE MENTION OF RAIN WAS
ONLY ADDED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE
SIERRA THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXTENDING INTO
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS 06Z-18Z.

IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO
BR THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095>097-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 222322
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 222322
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND IN MANY
INSTANCE CALM OR VARIABLE...SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED.
HOWEVER...PEAK SPEEDS OR GUSTS AOA 12KT WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT KBLH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING BRINGING
STRONG GUSTS TO THE SFC. WHILE KIPL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KT...KBLH WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25KT...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CLOSE TO 35KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 18Z. GUSTS SHOULD START TO
ABATE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ







000
FXUS65 KREV 222304
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 222304
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 222247
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
247 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE WEEK ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.DISCUSSION....SHORT TERM...(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) THE COLD FRONT
IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER WITH UPSLOPING WINDS SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT RESTRICTING FULL
CLEARING ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAINFALL IS PARTICULARLY LOW. THE
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE FRONT SHIFTING NORTH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY. HOWEVER A SHIFT
OF ONLY 20-50 MILES EAST COULD RESULT IN A WETTER MONDAY THAN
FORECAST.

VALLEY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING AS MOISTURE
POOLS ONTO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN TRINITY COUNTY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS
AND RIME ON SURFACES WHERE FOG DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
AS WELL...BUT DUE TO THE FOG...FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. RPA


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST. THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THEY BOTH INDICATE
MULTIPLE 6-HR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THUS THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCREASED 10-20 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN RETURNING IS
HIGH...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LAST TIME BOTH MODELS INDICATED A STORM WITH SUCH
CONSISTENCY IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME FRAME BOTH MODELS DROPPED THE
STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OR
LOW OVERCAST WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS THOUGH AS
THE LAND MASS COOLS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS NORCAL WATERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 11 FT
NEAR 11 SECONDS TODAY. OFFSHORE BUOY #2 HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF
15 FT NEAR 15 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. THESE REPORTS WERE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SEAS
CONTINUING AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT
PERIODS HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECASTED. BRISK NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EASE UP LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE AREA AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND CLIPS THE OUTER
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. BEYOND MON...MODELS
INDICATE SEAS FALLING TUE INTO WED WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
WINDS. ON THU...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO RAMP UP AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. STRONGER WINDS MAY HOLD OFF TIL FRI OR SAT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 222247
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
247 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE WEEK ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.DISCUSSION....SHORT TERM...(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) THE COLD FRONT
IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER WITH UPSLOPING WINDS SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT RESTRICTING FULL
CLEARING ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAINFALL IS PARTICULARLY LOW. THE
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE FRONT SHIFTING NORTH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY. HOWEVER A SHIFT
OF ONLY 20-50 MILES EAST COULD RESULT IN A WETTER MONDAY THAN
FORECAST.

VALLEY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING AS MOISTURE
POOLS ONTO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN TRINITY COUNTY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS
AND RIME ON SURFACES WHERE FOG DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
AS WELL...BUT DUE TO THE FOG...FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. RPA


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST. THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THEY BOTH INDICATE
MULTIPLE 6-HR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THUS THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCREASED 10-20 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN RETURNING IS
HIGH...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LAST TIME BOTH MODELS INDICATED A STORM WITH SUCH
CONSISTENCY IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME FRAME BOTH MODELS DROPPED THE
STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OR
LOW OVERCAST WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS THOUGH AS
THE LAND MASS COOLS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS NORCAL WATERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 11 FT
NEAR 11 SECONDS TODAY. OFFSHORE BUOY #2 HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF
15 FT NEAR 15 SECONDS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. THESE REPORTS WERE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SEAS
CONTINUING AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT
PERIODS HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECASTED. BRISK NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EASE UP LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE AREA AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND CLIPS THE OUTER
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. BEYOND MON...MODELS
INDICATE SEAS FALLING TUE INTO WED WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
WINDS. ON THU...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO RAMP UP AS A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. STRONGER WINDS MAY HOLD OFF TIL FRI OR SAT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 222233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 222233
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
THE FRONT WAS PRETTY MUCH A NO SHOW TODAY...IT BARELY EVEN MANAGED
TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS. TODAY TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDYS ACROSS VTA
AND LA COUNTIES BUT THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST. EVERYTHING NOW IS ABOUT THE WINDS. CURRENT PRESSURE
GRADS ARE RUNNING W TO E AND THE ANTELOPE VLY IS SEEING ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ALONG SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THIS EVENING THE
GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...THE LA AND VTA MTNS (ESP THE I0-5 CORRIDOR)...THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS...AND THE VLYS ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/VTA
COUNTY LINE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PILE UP A BUNCH OF CLOUDS
ALONG NORTH SLOPES OF THE LA/VTA MTNS AS WELL AS THE CUYAMA VLY.
THE UPSLOPE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP A NORTHEAST
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WILL SHUT OFF. BUT ALL OF THE NE ORIENTED
PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIGHT UP WITH LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS.
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER. THE WINDS WILL LULL IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REACHES ITS DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN HE INTERIOR BUT THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS FROM TODAYS VALUES ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

CLEAR SKIES DRY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WINDIER AREAS WILL HAVE WARMER THAN NORMAL
LOWS AS THE BREEZES KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP.
THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE
VLY WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE SFC GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE OVERKILL. THERE IS NO UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT EITHER SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THESE WINDS. VERY LOW
END ADVISORIES AT WORST. OTHERWISE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. HGTS RISE TO 583 DM AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. MAX TEMPS
WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.

MDLS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG EAST WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEVADA. WINDS THROUGH 700 MB TURN EASTERLY
AS WELL. ITS STILL EARLY BUT THIS COULD BE A DECENT EVENT. AVALON
HARBOR RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP AN EAR TURNED TO THE WEATHER NEWS. IF
THE NAM IS CORRECT THE AREAS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK. STILL THE NAM LIKES TO OVER DO WIND
SPEEDS SO ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK FCST. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND PLENTY WARM
WITH AS WIDE SWATH OF MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

WED WILL BE JUST LIKE TUESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS WINDY AND LITTLE
WARMER AS THE SFC GRADS RELAX (BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE) AND THE HGTS
RISE TO 588 DM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. RIGHT NOW
HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FCST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
BOTH GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST
THU AND FRI. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE EACH DAY (MORE
THAN A LITTLE RIGHT AT THE COAST) BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAYS FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE THE EC BRINGS IN A SLIGHT RIDGE
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A TROF TO THE EAST PAC. DID NOT REALLY BITE
HARD ON EITHER SOLN AND JUST TRENDED THE FCST COOLER AND A LITTLE
CLOUDIER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 222226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
226 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system has moved through Northern California. Behind the
front showers will be possible through the afternoon hours
especially for the mountains. Snow levels continue to be very
high close to 8500 feet but will start to lower as colder air
advects into the region through the afternoon. Not much in the
way of snow accumulations with this system with only a few inches
expected for the higher peaks. Patchy fog for the mountains
tonight especially through this evening and patchy fog developing
over the southern CWA valley area later tonight.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed. In the
overnight hours northerly winds in the valley may prevent fog from
forming over the western side of the valley and limit any
formation to the southern eastern side of the valley. The ridge
builds in stronger through the first part of next week with warmer
temperatures.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models similar in depicting strong upper ridge centered over
Interior NorCal Wednesday morning, then shifting axis into the
Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday as next upstream Pacific
storm approaches. Timing with this system is getting better
with models introducing leading edge of precip into western
portions of the CWA late Friday morning, spreading over most of
the forecast area Friday afternoon into night and continuing
Saturday. At this time, snow levels look to be around 6000 feet or
higher Fri/Sat. Significant model differences in QPF exist at this
time, as expected, with the 12z oper GFS showing much greater
storm total precip than the 12z ECMWF-HiRes.


&&

.Aviation...

NWly flow alf as Pac fntl sys movs E this eve and upr rdg blds off
the W Cst into Sun. Area MVFR/IFR with lcl LIFR conds poss ovr
Intr NorCal til arnd 18z Sun in ST/FG or isold mtn shwrs.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 222207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 222207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 222207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 222207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS...WITH AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES CRESTING INTO THE 70S FOR
PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
OTHERWISE DRY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...MOSTLY ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...TRAILING OFF THE PARENT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY...WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS FOR SUNDAY. ONE EFFECT
OF THIS BRUSH PASS WILL BE ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. AN ALREADY
DRY AIRMASS...AREA SOUNDINGS SAMPLING 0.40 INCH OR DRIER PWATS...WILL
DRY FURTHER WITH PWATS DROPPING SOLIDLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES OR DRIER.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE FROM THE 20 TO 30F READINGS
IN THE MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE SUNDAY.

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND/OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN DESERTS...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PERIOD FOR STRONGEST WINDS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO CENTER AROUND 23/18Z OR 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING BACK IN THEIR SPEEDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST VALUES STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...AN ISOLATED HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS WELL AS CONCERNS
FOR POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.

THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRUSH PASS
THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE AREA...WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER
READINGS. SOME OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCALES COULD SEE 80F
READINGS OR WARMER BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/CB
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/AJ





000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 222154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
154 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
AND OTHER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 17 DEGREES C WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT
AND MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND AND BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO END...YET
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND
ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES/PASSES. VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE
DUE TO REMNANT MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS
1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE
FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:50 PM PST SATURDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BRIEF GUSTS 20-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 222058
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1258 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...WITH SANTA ANA WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE
WARMING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLOW COOLING IS FORECAST TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 12 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WILL
HELP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO START
OFF THE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF ORANGE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE
SUNDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WINDY
LOCATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BELOW THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS AND OVER COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN
VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS OF
45 MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY...ALONG WITH BELOW THE CAJON PASS INTO THE INLAND
EMPIRE...AND EASTERLY GUSTS OF 60 MPH...LOCALLY 70 TO 80
MPH...BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STRONGEST
WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MODERATE SINCE THE HIGH-RES LOCAL MODELS
NOW EXTEND OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP RAISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS...COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGE ALOFT...WILL RAISE HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
SLOWLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN RETURN ONSHORE FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE COAST BY NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
221957Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH 23/0300 UTC.
23/0300-1500 UTC...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL MAY DEVELOP WITHIN 25-40 SM INLAND. LOW-
TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS OCCURRENCE AND TIMING FOR
KSAN...KSNA...KCRQ AND KONT. ANY STRATUS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT
OF THE NORTHERN AREAS 23/1200-1500 UTC. STARTING 23/1200
UTC...AREAS OF N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN MOD-
STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS WHERE WINDS TO NOT
SURFACE SW AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS. LLWS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KONT AND KSNA STARTING
AROUND 23/1300-1500 UTC...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NE
SURFACE WINDS AT THOSE AIRPORTS AROUND 23/1500-1700 UTC. ANY
STRATUS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 23/1600 UTC.

DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES/DESERTS...2100-23/0900 UTC...W WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS 35-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL BRING MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS OVER AND
E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING 23/1200 UTC...N TO NE WINDS
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OVER THE LITTLE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS MAY LOCALLY SURFACE IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND BRING SOME
LLWS TO SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS TO NOT SURFACE. BLOWING DUST MAY
REDUCE VIS BELOW 3 SM AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
1157 AM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS OVER THE WATERS
DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
BERNARDINO...ORANGE...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60
MPH...LOCALLY 80 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED WINDY
LOCATIONS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY IN THE MORNINGS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS BY MID NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT
     COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KSGX 222058
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1258 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...WITH SANTA ANA WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE
WARMING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLOW COOLING IS FORECAST TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 12 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WILL
HELP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO START
OFF THE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF ORANGE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE
SUNDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WINDY
LOCATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BELOW THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS AND OVER COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN
VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS OF
45 MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY...ALONG WITH BELOW THE CAJON PASS INTO THE INLAND
EMPIRE...AND EASTERLY GUSTS OF 60 MPH...LOCALLY 70 TO 80
MPH...BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STRONGEST
WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MODERATE SINCE THE HIGH-RES LOCAL MODELS
NOW EXTEND OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP RAISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS...COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGE ALOFT...WILL RAISE HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
SLOWLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN RETURN ONSHORE FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE COAST BY NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
221957Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH 23/0300 UTC.
23/0300-1500 UTC...PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL MAY DEVELOP WITHIN 25-40 SM INLAND. LOW-
TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS OCCURRENCE AND TIMING FOR
KSAN...KSNA...KCRQ AND KONT. ANY STRATUS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT
OF THE NORTHERN AREAS 23/1200-1500 UTC. STARTING 23/1200
UTC...AREAS OF N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN MOD-
STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS WHERE WINDS TO NOT
SURFACE SW AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS. LLWS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KONT AND KSNA STARTING
AROUND 23/1300-1500 UTC...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NE
SURFACE WINDS AT THOSE AIRPORTS AROUND 23/1500-1700 UTC. ANY
STRATUS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 23/1600 UTC.

DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES/DESERTS...2100-23/0900 UTC...W WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS 35-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL BRING MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS OVER AND
E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING 23/1200 UTC...N TO NE WINDS
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OVER THE LITTLE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS MAY LOCALLY SURFACE IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND BRING SOME
LLWS TO SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS TO NOT SURFACE. BLOWING DUST MAY
REDUCE VIS BELOW 3 SM AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
1157 AM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS OVER THE WATERS
DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
BERNARDINO...ORANGE...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60
MPH...LOCALLY 80 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED WINDY
LOCATIONS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY IN THE MORNINGS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS BY MID NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT
     COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON








000
FXUS66 KMTR 221813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT FRONTAL
RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND ORIENTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES/PASSES.
VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE DUE TO REMNANT
MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS 1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF
SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 221813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBY THIS MORNING DUE TO A LIGHT FRONTAL
RAIN BAND. KMUX RADAR SHOWS THE BACK END OF THE RAIN BAND ORIENTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS ARE VEERING FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES/PASSES.
VISBYS ARE DROPPING INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE DUE TO REMNANT
MOISTURE LEADING TO BR AND CIGS ARE AS LOW AS 1000FT ACCOMPANYING THE
RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT TAF
SITES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR THE 00Z TAFS... WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO... RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VISBY BY 19Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 20-22Z SAT FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUST WINDS
10-15KT VEERING WEST/NORTHWEST BTWN 18ZSAT-04ZSUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO MVFR CIG/VISBY AS FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT AND RAIN TAPERS OFF BTWN 21-23Z SAT. VFR
AFTER 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:49 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: CW

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 221805
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1004 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL BUILD NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
NORTHWEST AFTER 23/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 23/01Z THEN MODERATE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
23/01-23/13Z BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 23/13Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL NORTH WINDS 10KT OR LESS LIKELY BETWEEN 23/03-23/11Z AND
NORTHEAST 10KT OR LESS BETWEEN 23/11-23/22Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KSGX 221742
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
942 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...WITH SANTA ANA WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE
WARMING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND SLOW
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 22/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 22/0600 UTC GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.

AT 9 AM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED AROUND 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA...AND A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY. THE 22/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG THE PROFILE...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
HELP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO START
OFF THE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF ORANGE COUNTY AND BELOW THE CAJON
PASS INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE SUNDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO INCREASE BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND OVER COASTAL
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS OF 45 MPH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 55
MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST GUSTS
OF 50 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN ORANGE
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...ALONG WITH BELOW THE CAJON PASS INTO
THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND EASTERLY GUSTS OF 60 MPH...LOCALLY 70 TO
80 MPH...BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. STRONGEST
WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MODERATE SINCE THE HIGH-RES LOCAL MODELS
NOW EXTEND OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP RAISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS...COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGE ALOFT...WILL RAISE HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
SLOWLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN RETURN ONSHORE FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE COAST BY NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
221630Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH 23/0300 UTC...EXCEPT
FOR A PATCH OF BKN CLOUDS AT 1300 FT MSL IN NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY
WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 1800 UTC. 23/0300-1500 UTC...PATCHY
STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN 25-40 SM INLAND. LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
STRATUS OCCURRENCE AND TIMING FOR KSAN...KSNA...KCRQ AND KONT. ANY
STRATUS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT OF THE NORTHERN AREAS 23/1200-1500
UTC. STARTING 23/1500 UTC...AREAS OF N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND INTO THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND
LLWS WHERE WINDS TO NOT SURFACE SW AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LLWS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KONT
AND KSNA STARTING AROUND 23/1300-1500 UTC.

DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES/DESERTS...2100-23/0900 UTC...W WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS 35-50 KT OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH AND BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
WILL BRING MOD-STG UP/DOWNDRAFTS...POSSIBLE ROTORS AND LLWS OVER AND
E AND NE OF THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING 23/1200 UTC...N TO NE WINDS
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OVER THE LITTLE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS MAY LOCALLY SURFACE IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND BRING SOME
LLWS TO SPOTS WHERE THE WINDS TO NOT SURFACE. BLOWING DUST MAY
REDUCE VIS BELOW 3 SM AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60
MPH...LOCALLY 80 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAVORED WINDY
LOCATIONS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY IN THE MORNINGS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND AREAS
WILL LOWER INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS BY MID NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 221711
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
911 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:05 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
ARE ONLY PICKING UP LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MANY HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH BAY HAVE REPORTED UPWARDS OF 0.25" PER
HOUR. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221705
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 221705
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
SAGGY BAGGY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG I-80 WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING FROM THE BAY AREA TO MONTERREY AND POINTS EAST. FRONT WILL
BE LUCKY TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA WITH SLO
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST SHOT. RAINFALL AMOUNT IFS ANY WILL BE JUST A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE NORTH SLOPES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT AS NORTH FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SAN JOAQUIN VLY STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.

SKIES ARE PRETTY SUNNY NOW BUT THE CENTRAL COAST WILL CLOUD UP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VTA AND LA COUNTY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

THEN ITS ALL ABOUT THE WINDS. A DECENT W TO E GRADIENT WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO ANTELOPE VLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND. THIS EVENING A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN CA AND SETS
UP A N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS TO SANTA SOUTH COAST
THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AS WELL AS THE VLYS TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE LA/VTA COUNTY LINE. LATER SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEVADA AND THE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL TURN TO THE NE. THE
WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THESE NE WINDS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...

22/900 AM PST...

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE
ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND
OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KSTO 221704
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system is moving through Northern California is located
over the Northern San Joaquin Valley. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Areas of drizzle
have also been occurring this morning around the Sacramento region.
Snow levels continue to be very high close to 9000 feet but will
start to lower as colder air advects into the region this
afternoon. Not much in the way is expected in the way of snow
accumulations with this system with only a few inches for the
higher peaks expected.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the
Valley in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Light to moderate precipitation is impacting NorCal this morning
causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys in the valley.
Mountains will be obscured in precipitation and clouds.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate southerly
winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty conditions
across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Sierra gusts up to
60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 221704
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California this morning with minimal
snowfall. High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next
week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
Frontal system is moving through Northern California is located
over the Northern San Joaquin Valley. Behind the front showers
will be possible through the afternoon hours. Areas of drizzle
have also been occurring this morning around the Sacramento region.
Snow levels continue to be very high close to 9000 feet but will
start to lower as colder air advects into the region this
afternoon. Not much in the way is expected in the way of snow
accumulations with this system with only a few inches for the
higher peaks expected.

Lingering showers will be ending early in the evening. High
pressure will then begin to build over the region for Sunday
and Monday. Northerly winds will develop the next couple of days
but nothing of significance in terms of wind speed.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the
Valley in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Light to moderate precipitation is impacting NorCal this morning
causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys in the valley.
Mountains will be obscured in precipitation and clouds.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate southerly
winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty conditions
across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Sierra gusts up to
60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPSR 221508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
808 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATE WEEK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.
MAINLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER AZ WITH SOME PATCHES OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. NEXT SHORTWAVE
FEATURE...EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...IS ALREADY LOADING OVER WA/OR WITH
STRONG MID AND UPPER LET JET WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH PERIODS
OF ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AND DRIER SURFACE AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WILL LOOK FOR POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST...ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR TODAY (THE IN-BETWEEN THESE
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS) LOOK FOR PERIODS OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...LOW TO UPPER
70S FOR THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND JOSHUA TREE NP. MORNING
FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 115 AM MST/1215 AM PST/...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 221508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
808 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATE WEEK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.
MAINLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER AZ WITH SOME PATCHES OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. NEXT SHORTWAVE
FEATURE...EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...IS ALREADY LOADING OVER WA/OR WITH
STRONG MID AND UPPER LET JET WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH PERIODS
OF ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AND DRIER SURFACE AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. WILL LOOK FOR POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...FOR A FEW HOURS AT LEAST...ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR TODAY (THE IN-BETWEEN THESE
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS) LOOK FOR PERIODS OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...LOW TO UPPER
70S FOR THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND JOSHUA TREE NP. MORNING
FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 115 AM MST/1215 AM PST/...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 221253
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S. ONE ISSUE OF
CONCERN WILL BE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS...ONLY WIND PROTECTED AREAS
WILL DROP THAT LOW. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS TO DECIDE IF
A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KSTO 221253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
453 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California today with minimal snowfall.
High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
The advertised third and last weather system is currently moving
through NorCal. The wettest area has been Shasta county. Over the
past 6 hrs, the Redding airport has had just shy of 1 inch of rain
while the surrounding hills have had between 1.25 and 1.75 inches.
We have under forecast the rain amounts thus far over the Shasta
county area, but the widespread rain has shifted south over the
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains. Therefore, we
increased the rain amounts today. We are expecting some form of
convergence zone to set up later near and west of the Redding
area (as this is quite typical) later today as the breezy
southerly winds in the valley converge with the westerly winds
over the coastal range. Precip will continue to overspread the
area from NW to SE during the day. The swath of the heavier rain
should be in the Sacramento area and adjacent mountains by 630 to
700 am, then by 900 am in Modesto. The system is not very unstable
behind the front, so we expect some showery activity, but not
thunderstorms. Because of the warm nature of the system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet this
morning. As of 430 am, Sierra temps have been climbing over the
previous few hours.

The other factor with this system will be breezy to windy
conditions. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-30
mph with gusts as high as 45 mph with the strongest winds in the
northern and central Sacramento Valley, where we have issued a
wind advisory until 8 am. Mountain ranges will see sustained winds
20-40 mph with gusts upward of 40-50 mph, and 50-70 mph near the
Sierra crest. Hence, we also issued an advisory for the Sierra
generally above 6000 feet.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog is probable Monday and Tuesday mornings
with light winds and lingering moisture.        JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the Valley
in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...
Light to moderate precipitation is impacting much of NorCal this
morning causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate to strong
southerly winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty
conditions across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Valley
gusts from 30 to 40 kts expected through 16z. Sierra gusts up to
55-60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier. JBB


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 1 pm PST this afternoon west slope northern
Sierra Nevada...western Plumas county/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 8 am PST this morning central Sacramento
Valley...northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 221253
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
453 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Latest weather systems brings widespread rain and stronger winds
through interior northern California today with minimal snowfall.
High pressure will build back in Sunday and much of next week.

&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Tuesday)...
The advertised third and last weather system is currently moving
through NorCal. The wettest area has been Shasta county. Over the
past 6 hrs, the Redding airport has had just shy of 1 inch of rain
while the surrounding hills have had between 1.25 and 1.75 inches.
We have under forecast the rain amounts thus far over the Shasta
county area, but the widespread rain has shifted south over the
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains. Therefore, we
increased the rain amounts today. We are expecting some form of
convergence zone to set up later near and west of the Redding
area (as this is quite typical) later today as the breezy
southerly winds in the valley converge with the westerly winds
over the coastal range. Precip will continue to overspread the
area from NW to SE during the day. The swath of the heavier rain
should be in the Sacramento area and adjacent mountains by 630 to
700 am, then by 900 am in Modesto. The system is not very unstable
behind the front, so we expect some showery activity, but not
thunderstorms. Because of the warm nature of the system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet this
morning. As of 430 am, Sierra temps have been climbing over the
previous few hours.

The other factor with this system will be breezy to windy
conditions. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-30
mph with gusts as high as 45 mph with the strongest winds in the
northern and central Sacramento Valley, where we have issued a
wind advisory until 8 am. Mountain ranges will see sustained winds
20-40 mph with gusts upward of 40-50 mph, and 50-70 mph near the
Sierra crest. Hence, we also issued an advisory for the Sierra
generally above 6000 feet.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog is probable Monday and Tuesday mornings
with light winds and lingering moisture.        JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for patchy fog in the Valley
in the early morning hours on Wed. The light winds and mostly
clear skies at night, along with leftover moisture from recent
storms could create good conditions for fog development, but the
exact location and timing details will have to wait. Temperatures
should be quite mild with a warm airmass.

Models still suggest that a shortwave could bring some precipitation
into the coastal range, northern mountains and into Northern
Sacramento Valley by Friday morning/afternoon. Chance for
precipitation will spread southward across most of our forecast
area by Friday evening and continue through Saturday. Snow levels
look to be above pass levels at this point. EK/JBB

&&

.Aviation...
Light to moderate precipitation is impacting much of NorCal this
morning causing widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys.
Precipitation chances will continue through much of the day
bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Moderate to strong
southerly winds impacting TAF sites this morning with gusty
conditions across the Sierra crest through this afternoon. Valley
gusts from 30 to 40 kts expected through 16z. Sierra gusts up to
55-60 kts expected through 21z. Winds will lighten by tonight and
conditions will become drier. JBB


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 1 pm PST this afternoon west slope northern
Sierra Nevada...western Plumas county/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 8 am PST this morning central Sacramento
Valley...northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 221235
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE WEEK
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM(THROUGH TUESDAY)...RADAR AND SAT SHOWS THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON MENDOCINO COUNTY
LOOKS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER
COVERAGE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE INLAND VALLEYS DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINFALL SO HAVE ADDED THIS THE FORECAST. ALONG THE
COAST WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE FOG AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHILLY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT
FROST IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE STILL
ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES. THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND
MIXING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN TRINITY COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WEAK WARM FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TO PREVENT FROST IN HUMBOLDT/DEL NORTE AND COASTAL MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. INLAND MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTY MAY SEE SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INLAND VALLEY CLOUDS AND FOG. MKK/RPA

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY BUT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THURSDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST. MODELS IN THE VERY LONG RANGE INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. MKK/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHALL VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. KML

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND AS A
NORTHWESTERLY WAVE MAINTAINS 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW TAKE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVE DIMINISHED
BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD SHALL KEEP
WINDS GENTLE. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE WINDS SINCE MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING WITH
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. /KML

&&

.COASTAL FLOOD...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO BRING HIGH TIDES CLOSE TO 8.8 FT AT THE NORTH SPIT ON
HUMBOLDT BAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN KING
SALMON AND ON JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AROUND THE
TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 11 AM TODAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 221235
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE WEEK
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM(THROUGH TUESDAY)...RADAR AND SAT SHOWS THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...BUT COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON MENDOCINO COUNTY
LOOKS TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER
COVERAGE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE INLAND VALLEYS DUE TO
THE RECENT RAINFALL SO HAVE ADDED THIS THE FORECAST. ALONG THE
COAST WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE FOG AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHILLY...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT
FROST IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE STILL
ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES. THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND
MIXING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN TRINITY COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WEAK WARM FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA TO PREVENT FROST IN HUMBOLDT/DEL NORTE AND COASTAL MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. INLAND MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTY MAY SEE SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. EACH
NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INLAND VALLEY CLOUDS AND FOG. MKK/RPA

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY BUT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THURSDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST. MODELS IN THE VERY LONG RANGE INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. MKK/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHALL VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. KML

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND AS A
NORTHWESTERLY WAVE MAINTAINS 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW TAKE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVE DIMINISHED
BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD SHALL KEEP
WINDS GENTLE. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE WINDS SINCE MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING WITH
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. /KML

&&

.COASTAL FLOOD...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO BRING HIGH TIDES CLOSE TO 8.8 FT AT THE NORTH SPIT ON
HUMBOLDT BAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN KING
SALMON AND ON JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AROUND THE
TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 11 AM TODAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 221218 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 221218 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 221218 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 221218 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AFTER 06Z
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT RESIDUAL BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER LOW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING MODESTLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS66 KMTR 221203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 221203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:59 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BAY AREA TERMINALS IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 13Z-14Z TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:39 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 221152
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
352 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY...MOSTLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH...THEN
SPREADING ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE PATCHY
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
FOG WILL GIVE WAY LATER THIS MORNING TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE
BEST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONT EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RUNS ACKNOWLEDGE THIS AND PROG JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE YOSEMITE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR NOON
WHEN IT PUSHES A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS ALSO SHOWN TO DWINDLE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH FROM FRESNO COUNTY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT JUST MAINLY LIGHT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...THOUGH VALLEY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THANKSGIVING THEN TRENDING BACK DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO BR/FG THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY MID CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN BR/HZ. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221152
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
352 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY...MOSTLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH...THEN
SPREADING ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE PATCHY
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
FOG WILL GIVE WAY LATER THIS MORNING TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE
BEST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONT EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RUNS ACKNOWLEDGE THIS AND PROG JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE YOSEMITE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR NOON
WHEN IT PUSHES A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS ALSO SHOWN TO DWINDLE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH FROM FRESNO COUNTY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT JUST MAINLY LIGHT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...THOUGH VALLEY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THANKSGIVING THEN TRENDING BACK DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO BR/FG THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY MID CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN BR/HZ. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221152
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
352 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY...MOSTLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH...THEN
SPREADING ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE PATCHY
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
FOG WILL GIVE WAY LATER THIS MORNING TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE
BEST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONT EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RUNS ACKNOWLEDGE THIS AND PROG JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE YOSEMITE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR NOON
WHEN IT PUSHES A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS ALSO SHOWN TO DWINDLE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH FROM FRESNO COUNTY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT JUST MAINLY LIGHT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...THOUGH VALLEY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THANKSGIVING THEN TRENDING BACK DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO BR/FG THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY MID CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN BR/HZ. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221152
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
352 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY...MOSTLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH...THEN
SPREADING ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES INTO THE SOUTH END TONIGHT.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE PATCHY
FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
FOG WILL GIVE WAY LATER THIS MORNING TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE
BEST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONT EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH RUNS ACKNOWLEDGE THIS AND PROG JUST
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE YOSEMITE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR NOON
WHEN IT PUSHES A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS ALSO SHOWN TO DWINDLE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH FROM FRESNO COUNTY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT JUST MAINLY LIGHT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...THOUGH VALLEY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNINGS. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THANKSGIVING THEN TRENDING BACK DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO BR/FG THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY MID CLOUDS WITH SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN BR/HZ. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947
KFAT 11-24       78:1939     49:2010     54:1896     29:1947

KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
KBFL 11-24       87:1917     49:2010     59:1926     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 221139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 221139
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 10Z THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDS ALL AREA. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR.

GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SRN SBA COUNTY AND THE I5 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME LLWS/MDT UDDF. N WINDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE SANTA CLARITA/SAN FERNANDO VLYS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221135
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN B
VFR. GUSTY N WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
LLWS AND MDT UDDF. SOME GUSTY N WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME NLY WINDS MAY REACH KLAX TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.


&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSGX 221131
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING WARMING
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING COOLING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN PATCHY STRATUS THE PAST FEW
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. PATCHY STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY
LIMITED. A GREATER RETURN OF STRATUS AND DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED.
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH MODERATE STRENGTH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING ADVISORY
STRENGTH OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILL AREAS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THEY COOL IN
THE DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PEAK
TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA
WITH CONTINUING MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY COOL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221050Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES
1500 TO 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL FORMING WEST OF THE MTNS
AFTER 23/03Z...CLEARING EARLY SUN MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF NE SFC WINDS GUSTING 35-50 KT DEVELOPING BELOW THE CAJON
PASS AND SANTA ANA MTNS AFTER 23/12Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS VCNTY KONT
AND KSNA.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 30-40 KT AFTER 21Z IN
THE HIGH DESERT...AND OVER/E OF THE MTN RIDGES AND ADJACENT DESERT
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. LLWS AND STG UDDFS POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF THE
MTNS. W WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 23/06Z. LOCAL GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY SUN
MORNING...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VIS AT TIMES
IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. MODERATE STRENGTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWEST DAYTIME INLAND
HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. RECENT
RAINFALL HAS BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
331 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT FOR SOME  CLOUDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. SOME COOLING EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
HINT OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED HIGH
CLOUDS RIDING OVER A DIRTY RIDGE WITH AN UPPER HIGH SITTING OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALTHOUGH MODELS WERE HINTING AT LIMITED
MOISTURE REACHING AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS WEAK QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...SOME CLOUDS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SBA/VTU AND WESTERN LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE VERY LOW.

SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER HIGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WITH BROAD NW TO N
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MEANDERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SANTA WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS THAT ARE GENERATED FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO
A STRONG WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES
ON HIGHWAY 14 AND 138. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE CONVERTED TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH AROUND
WHITAKER PEAK THIS EVE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SEPULVEDA PASS AND INTO WEST LA WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING
LAX TONIGHT. GUST TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE IN A MORE TYPICAL SANTA ANA WIND
DIRECTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS STARTING 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND LA COUNTY
COAST BETWEEN THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED WARMING TODAY
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
IN SOME LOCATIONS...WITH BEST WARMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERIOR AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO REACH THE
INTERIOR REGION AS OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. TUE/WED WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS 60S.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY ON THU WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG OF A SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL...EXPECT ABOVE TEMPS TUE THROUGH WED...WITH
COOLING THU/FRI BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/300 AM PST...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS FROM AROUND PT CONCEPTION TO NW OF SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SCA CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL NLY WINDS CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM MALIBU TO SANTA MONICA TONIGHT.

GUSTY NE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE INNER WATERS NEAR SHORE FROM SANTA
MONICA TO VENTURA AND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ AND ANACAPA ISLANDS MON
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KMTR 221100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221100
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THE
VARIOUS COASTAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY BEEN
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST. MOST OF THE RETURNS
CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA (GENERALLY FROM FORT BRAGG TO THE
NORTH), HOWEVER STARTING TO GET A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
NORTH BAY AT THIS HOUR. RAIN IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING
THAT GREAT -- THEY DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY ACROSS MARIN
COUNTY. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE RAIN WILL
NOT BE A PLENTIFUL AS EXPECTED AND MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR TO THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RFC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOCALLY
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 1/4"-1/2" FOR
SF BAY PLUS NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND THE SC MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST LATER TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 593 DM AT 500 MB ON
THE GFS/ECMWF, WHILE NAVGEM HAS IT CLOSER TO 586 DM) OUT IN THE
PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY REBUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FORCING THE JET
STREAM BACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO ALL
OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 850 MB TEMPS WILL JUMP AS MUCH AS 10C
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 17C ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING COASTAL SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN DOWN TO MONTEREY WHILE VALUES FROM THE
EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY THE SAME. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE
PREVIOUS GRID PACKAGE CLOSE TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THOSE HIGH VALUES, NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP
THEM UP HIGHER. BY THE WAY, LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORDS SHOWS
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY WARM EPISODES TOWARD THE END OF NOVEMBER,
INCLUDING ONE IN 1956 WHERE MONTEREY WENT INTO THE MID 80S!

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK --
PROBABLY ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER DOWN THE
ROAD, THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN CLOSE TO NOVEMBER 30TH OR DECEMBER
1ST.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 220816
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 220816
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 220816
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 220816
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW HAS QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA...AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/NWRN MEXICO...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY SUBSIDENT NLY TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH JUST A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. ALSO...SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY LEADING
TO BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL MAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. EXPECT A
HIGH AROUND 68 MONDAY AT PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST H5
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 585DM ACROSS THE LOWER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DESERTS...AND AS SUCH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. SOME OF THE WARMEST
GRIDDED GUIDANCE PACKAGES CALL FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 85 AT PHOENIX ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THESE NUMBERS ARE RATHER EXTREME...SEEING A HIGH
REACH AT LEAST 80 AT PHOENIX IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WE WILL GO WITH
EXACTLY 80 FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR ON THAT DAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS66 KMTR 220548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING NW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 220548
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
948 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:48 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE DISTRICT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z SATURDAY. LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:44 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING NW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 220548
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
945 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
tonight into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A ridge of
high pressure will build back in for the end of the weekend into
much of next week. This will allow for dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are possible into the
middle of next week with lingering moisture and light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Rain band finally has moved into our CWA...extending across Wrn
Shasta Co at press time. Extrapolation suggests the forward speed is
about 35-40 kts and by midnite should be along a NE-SW line from
about Quincy-Yuba City-Rumsey...with lighter echoes on the SW flank.
By 4 am...the rain should move into the I-80 corridor. Still looks
as if later tonight and through Sat morning when periods of
moderate-heavy precip occur over the Siernev...then tapering/ending
in the afternoon...although upslope flow will linger some precip
over the Siernev. Pre-frontal winds expected to be the strongest
from 06-18z Sat...and more in the 12z-18z time frame for the I-80
corridor. 925 mbs winds suggest gusts 25-35 kts with the mtns on the
higher end and portions of the valley on the lower end.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for much of the area, bulk
of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday with this evening`s
commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on track with minor tweaks
made to timing of highest POPs and QPF. PWAT is fairly high for this
time of year with values ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast
QPF values haven`t changed much from this morning`s forecast with
amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the
foothills and mountains. Because of warm nature of system, snow
amounts will be limited as snow levels rise above 7-8K feet by the
time the majority of the precip arrives. Light accumulations
expected only at highest elevations with minimal travel impacts
expected. Other factor with this system will be breezy conditions on
Saturday. Sustained valley winds may be on the order of 15-20 mph
with gusts as high as 35 mph in some locations. Mountain ranges will
see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with higher gusts near the Sierra
crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing
details will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a
warm airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase up to 15 kts after 06z with gusts 25-35 kts...highest over
Siernev and lowest in the valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KHNX 220540 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
940 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND ADDED FOG TO THE AREA
AROUND TEHACHAPI.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A STUBBORN STRATUS
DECK BANKED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. BY 04Z SATURDAY /2100 PST THIS EVENING/...BAKERSFIELD
WAS ALREADY COOLER THAN ITS FORECAST LOW...TEHACHAPI WAS AT ITS
FORECAST LOW AND FRESNO WAS ONLY A DEGREE WARMER THAN ITS FORECAST
LOW. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA AS MUCH AS FOUR DEGREES TO REFLECT TRENDS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEWPOINTS.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE 0515Z
SATURDAY /2115 PST TONIGHT/ METAR FROM TEHACHAPI MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY WITH A 200-FOOT CEILING. HAVE ADDED
AN AREA OF FOG TO THE TEHACHAPI AREA FOR CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
TEHACHAPI PASS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS STAYED IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ALL DAY WITH LOWER
TEMPS. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MERCED AND FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MERCED AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS ONE THOUGH. SPC SREF PLUMES
ONLY GIVE AROUND 0.05 INCHES AT MCE. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM A 0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH NEARLY 0.5 IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY. THE REST OF US WONT SEE MUCH
AT ALL. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
AN NO REAL COLD AIR IN PLACE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WED. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN INVERSION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FOG THINGS UP IN THE VALLEY EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

TRAVEL PLANS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR WED
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY/S TROUGH. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLN AS THE ECM IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE... WHICH IS DRY. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MOISTURE
PLUME IS UNCERTAIN. THE RH AND QPF IS MORE FARTHER TO THE NORTH
WITH RECENT RUNS. FRI REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL DUE TO LACK OF
TIMING CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBLE THURS FEATURE. WE ARE LEANING
TOWARDS A DRY SOLN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HZ/BR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 220540 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
940 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND ADDED FOG TO THE AREA
AROUND TEHACHAPI.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A STUBBORN STRATUS
DECK BANKED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT WIND...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. BY 04Z SATURDAY /2100 PST THIS EVENING/...BAKERSFIELD
WAS ALREADY COOLER THAN ITS FORECAST LOW...TEHACHAPI WAS AT ITS
FORECAST LOW AND FRESNO WAS ONLY A DEGREE WARMER THAN ITS FORECAST
LOW. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA AS MUCH AS FOUR DEGREES TO REFLECT TRENDS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEWPOINTS.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE VALLEY-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE 0515Z
SATURDAY /2115 PST TONIGHT/ METAR FROM TEHACHAPI MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY WITH A 200-FOOT CEILING. HAVE ADDED
AN AREA OF FOG TO THE TEHACHAPI AREA FOR CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
TEHACHAPI PASS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS STAYED IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ALL DAY WITH LOWER
TEMPS. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MERCED AND FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MERCED AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS ONE THOUGH. SPC SREF PLUMES
ONLY GIVE AROUND 0.05 INCHES AT MCE. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM A 0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH NEARLY 0.5 IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY. THE REST OF US WONT SEE MUCH
AT ALL. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
AN NO REAL COLD AIR IN PLACE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WED. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN INVERSION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FOG THINGS UP IN THE VALLEY EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

TRAVEL PLANS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR WED
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY/S TROUGH. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLN AS THE ECM IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE... WHICH IS DRY. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MOISTURE
PLUME IS UNCERTAIN. THE RH AND QPF IS MORE FARTHER TO THE NORTH
WITH RECENT RUNS. FRI REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL DUE TO LACK OF
TIMING CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBLE THURS FEATURE. WE ARE LEANING
TOWARDS A DRY SOLN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS ALONG VALLEY FACING SLOPES AND INTO THE
PASSES THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HZ/BR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 220516
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
CLOUDS BANKED UPON THE N SLOPES THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO THICKEN OVER THE REST OF SLO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN SBA
COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER S...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WERE GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND SBA COUNTY S COAST THIS EVENING
THANKS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT (AT 03Z -4.0 MB
SBA-SMX AND -5.5 MB SBA-BFL). GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALREADY...AND THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS. AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY W TO
N WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS AND PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE
VLY OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SWRN CA TONIGHT THRU SAT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN
BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES SAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE N MTN SLOPES FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN. GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS AT TIMES SAT THRU
SUN MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND GUSTS TO
WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WAND WATCH
WAS ISSUED...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ANTELOPE
VLY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT FOR THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND S
COAST...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXNPWLOX) FOR DETAILS ON
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHEAST BY LATER SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU
MON...WITH GUSTY WINDS BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS
LIKELY TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN MANY AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY
SAT INTO SAT EVENING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN THANKS TO
THE DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU
MON IN ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
THEN TURN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL MAINLY W OF THE MTNS ON
SUN...AND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSGX 220502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...DRY..AND SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...THEN FAIR AND VERY DRY
MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...
AND WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TURNING COOLER AND MORE HUMID OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING SOUTH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE
FLOW NV AND WEAK ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WINDS WERE LIGHT WITH
PEAK GUSTS 20 MPH OR LESS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD NO INVERSION
AND HAD BECOME VERY STABLE WITH WARMING ABOVE 600 MB AND SOME
COOLING BELOW...THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB.

JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE RAIN ARRIVED OVERNIGHT...IT WAS SWEPT AWAY
TODAY IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE HIGHLY
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN SPOTS OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. SEE
LAXRRMSGX FOR THE SNOW AND RAINFALL TOTALS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN FAIR ON SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS AND WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SAT AFT/NIGHT ACROSS THE
MTS/ DESERTS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWSGX.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ALOFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER
48. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOCAL UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONG
WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS MOVING THROUGH NW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOWER WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE RAPID SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOCAL. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN TURN
N-NE AND BLOW OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS SUN. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUN...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH WED. INITIALLY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE...BUT GRADUALLY THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND THE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE COASTAL BASIN WILL
RESULT IN SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS...WARM DAYS
AND VERY LOW RH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT INLAND BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN AROUND AND
BECOME ONSHORE FOR COOLER DAYS AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL QUITE LARGE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH SO
CONFIDENCE FALTERS THEN BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. UNTIL THEN...IT LOOKS
VERY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COASTS & VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MARINE STRATUS WITH
BASES 1000 TO 1500 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SEVERAL MILES INLAND. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

MTNS & DESERTS...SFC WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AFTER 21Z
SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS...THROUGH THE WIND
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS SUCH AS SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS AND DESERT SLOPES OF SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTIES. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE SURFACE
VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.

MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS
AND LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
901 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...DRY..AND SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS...THEN FAIR AND VERY DRY
MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SANTA ANA
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...
AND WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TURNING COOLER AND MORE HUMID OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING SOUTH. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAKLY OFFSHORE
FLOW NV AND WEAK ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. WINDS WERE LIGHT WITH
PEAK GUSTS 20 MPH OR LESS. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD NO INVERSION
AND HAD BECOME VERY STABLE WITH WARMING ABOVE 600 MB AND SOME
COOLING BELOW...THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB.

JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE RAIN ARRIVED OVERNIGHT...IT WAS SWEPT AWAY
TODAY IN DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE HIGHLY
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO AROUND TWO INCHES IN SPOTS OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. SEE
LAXRRMSGX FOR THE SNOW AND RAINFALL TOTALS.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN FAIR ON SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVER DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS AND WILL BECOME QUITE
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SAT AFT/NIGHT ACROSS THE
MTS/ DESERTS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWSGX.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ALOFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH MON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER
48. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOCAL UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONG
WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS MOVING THROUGH NW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOWER WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE RAPID SFC PRESSURE
FALLS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOCAL. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN TURN
N-NE AND BLOW OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS SUN. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUN...
THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH WED. INITIALLY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE...BUT GRADUALLY THE THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND THE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE COASTAL BASIN WILL
RESULT IN SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS...WARM DAYS
AND VERY LOW RH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT INLAND BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN AROUND AND
BECOME ONSHORE FOR COOLER DAYS AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL QUITE LARGE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH SO
CONFIDENCE FALTERS THEN BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. UNTIL THEN...IT LOOKS
VERY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COASTS & VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MARINE STRATUS WITH
BASES 1000 TO 1500 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SEVERAL MILES INLAND. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

MTNS & DESERTS...SFC WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AFTER 21Z
SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS...THROUGH THE WIND
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS SUCH AS SAN GORGONIO PASS AND ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS AND DESERT SLOPES OF SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTIES. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE SURFACE
VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.

MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS
AND LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE








000
FXUS66 KMTR 220457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND UNIMPRESSIVE ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RECENT ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA AS A STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO THAT AREA.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
SPREADING WARM ADVECTION RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
SANTA CRUZ AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH RAINFALL SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND SO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL
PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASH-
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY WHERE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO END BY MIDDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND REMOVED SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE TAP...WITH PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE FACT THAT PRECIP HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INDICATES THAT
EITHER THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK DEVELOPING PRECIP OR HAVE
OVERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST ITS INITIAL
STRENGTH. IN ANY CASE...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF OF 0.25-1.00" IN
THE NORTH BAY...0.10-0.40" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SF BAY
AREA...AND 0.20" OR LESS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH BAY OVERNIGHT TO PERHAPS RESULT IN SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

DRIER NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE HILLS
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS THEN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT
GRADUALLY TO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARMING AIRMASS (850 MB
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 15 DEG C BY TUESDAY)...WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL MEAN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SPREAD RAIN
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 220346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED AND DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD CORE HAS TRANSLATED INTO NRN SONORA PER EVENING WV
IMAGERY. COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 AT -22C PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING) AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5 AOA 8 C/KM) WHICH SUPPORTED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
EARLIER WERE QUICKLY BECOMING FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED AND LIGHT WINDS WERE
STARTING TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM TRENDS...WITH THE
OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BEING DELIGHTFUL LATE NOVEMBER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 220346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED AND DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD CORE HAS TRANSLATED INTO NRN SONORA PER EVENING WV
IMAGERY. COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 AT -22C PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING) AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5 AOA 8 C/KM) WHICH SUPPORTED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
EARLIER WERE QUICKLY BECOMING FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED AND LIGHT WINDS WERE
STARTING TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM TRENDS...WITH THE
OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BEING DELIGHTFUL LATE NOVEMBER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 220346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED AND DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD CORE HAS TRANSLATED INTO NRN SONORA PER EVENING WV
IMAGERY. COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 AT -22C PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING) AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5 AOA 8 C/KM) WHICH SUPPORTED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
EARLIER WERE QUICKLY BECOMING FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED AND LIGHT WINDS WERE
STARTING TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM TRENDS...WITH THE
OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BEING DELIGHTFUL LATE NOVEMBER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 220346
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT YET WELL DEFINED AND DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD CORE HAS TRANSLATED INTO NRN SONORA PER EVENING WV
IMAGERY. COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 AT -22C PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING) AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5 AOA 8 C/KM) WHICH SUPPORTED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
EARLIER WERE QUICKLY BECOMING FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED AND LIGHT WINDS WERE
STARTING TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM TRENDS...WITH THE
OVERALL MESSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BEING DELIGHTFUL LATE NOVEMBER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10KT WITH MORE
TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DIURNAL WIND SHIFT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KREV 220134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000 FEET, SO SIERRA PASSES
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF MT ROSE HIGHWAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACT THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 220134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000 FEET, SO SIERRA PASSES
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF MT ROSE HIGHWAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACT THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220016 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 220016 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000.

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT. FOR KPRB...THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS 10Z-16Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY HI
CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT. FOR KSBP AND
KSMX...THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFT 23Z SAT. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE AIRFIELDS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KSBA THRU 12Z SAT DUE TO GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY W TO NW WINDS AT
KPMD AND KWJF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING. LIGHT N TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT AFTERNOON. N WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELD 16Z-22Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 220005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220005
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 PM PST FRIDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. INCREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE NORTH BAY THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS THE
RAIN APPROACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
12Z-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AROUND 20Z
SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 23Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212327
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212327
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...
IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE...21/320 PM PST.
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AFFECTING THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WITH THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN
RAFAEL RANGES OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE MONTECITO
AREA...HAVE A CHANCE FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND EVEN
MORE SO ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ADDRESS THIS PERIOD. SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT REACH RED FLAG
DURATIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 212314
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
314 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase after 06z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212314
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
314 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&
.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

Light precipitation is gradually spreading from north to south into
interior Norcal. Most of the rain/snow occurring 06z. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal into
Saturday. Light winds for this evening, but southerly winds will
increase after 06z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KREV 212310
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 212310
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSTO 212259
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
259 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The last in a series of weather systems will move into the area
later today into Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation. A
ridge of high pressure will build back in for the end of the
weekend into much of next week. This will allow for dry weather
and above normal temperatures. Areas of morning valley fog are
possible into the middle of next week with lingering moisture and
light winds.

&&

.Discussion...
Last in a series of systems is currently moving onshore across
NorCal this afternoon. Light precip will continue to overspread
the area from NW to SE during the evening hours becoming heavier into
Saturday morning. Latest hi-res guidance in agreement that, for
much of the area, bulk of precip will fall between 6Z-18Z Saturday
with this evening`s commute remaining dry. Forecast generally on
track with minor tweaks made to timing of highest POPs and QPF.
PWAT is fairly high for this time of year with values ranging from
0.75 to 1.5 inches. Forecast QPF values haven`t changed much from
this morning`s forecast with amounts ranging from 0.10-0.4" in the
valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills and mountains. Because of warm
nature of system, snow amounts will be limited as snow levels rise
above 7-8K feet by the time the majority of the precip arrives.
Light accumulations expected only at highest elevations with
minimal travel impacts expected. Other factor with this system
will be breezy conditions on Saturday. Sustained valley winds may
be on the order of 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph in some
locations. Mountain ranges will see gusts upward of 40-45 mph with
higher gusts near the Sierra crest.

Ridging builds back in over the coast for Sunday into the
beginning of next week. Dry weather is expected with above normal
temperatures. Valley fog certainly possible early Monday morning
with light winds and lingering moisture. CEO

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Strong ridging will bring dry weather and light winds early next
week through Thanksgiving day. Travel conditions are expected to
be good through that period, except for locally dense fog in the
Valley at times. The light winds and mostly clear skies at night,
along with leftover moisture from recent storms could create good
conditions for fog development, but the exact location and timing details
will have to wait. Temperatures should be quite mild with a warm
airmass, though if fog manages to persist into the afternoon,
those areas could end up being cooler than forecast.

On Friday, models are suggestion a shortwave could bring some
precipitation into the coastal range and northern mountains. The
12z GFS and ECMWF also show this spreading into the northern
Sacramento Valley and the Sierra. have introduced a slight chance
of rain into those areas. Snow levels look to be above pass levels
at this point. EK

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212256
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO FAR RADARS HAVE NOT
PICKED UP ANY ECHOS IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD, ALL RAIN HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. LATEST
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
NORCAL/PACNW TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL START TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND DOWN TO SF BAY REGION DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MONTEREY BAY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 1/3"-2/3"
FOR MANY URBAN AREAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS (1"-2"). FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
(OUTSIDE OF THE SC MOUNTAINS) CAN EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS. MOIST
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN SHELTERED SPOTS COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION -- ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH BAY.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN ALMOST ALL SPOTS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM CPC GOING INTO
DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, SO THE BREAK NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AND TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 212240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A STUBBORN STRATUS
DECK LOCATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS STAYED IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ALL DAY WITH LOWER
TEMPS. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MERCED AND FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MERCED AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS ONE THOUGH. SPC SREF PLUMES
ONLY GIVE AROUND 0.05 INCHES AT MCE. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM A 0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH NEARLY 0.5 IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY. THE REST OF US WONT SEE MUCH
AT ALL. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
AN NO REAL COLD AIR IN PLACE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WED. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN INVERSION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FOG THINGS UP IN THE VALLEY EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

TRAVEL PLANS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR WED
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAYS TROUGH. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRY SOLN
AS THE ECM IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE...
WHICH IS DRY. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MOISTURE PLUME IS
UNCERTAIN. THE RH AND QPF IS MORE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH RECENT
RUNS. FRI REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL DUE TO LACK OF TIMING
CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBLE THURS FEATURE. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS
A DRY SOLN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS THRU 04Z SAT...THEN MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HZ/BR THRU 18Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 212240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A STUBBORN STRATUS
DECK LOCATED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS STAYED IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ALL DAY WITH LOWER
TEMPS. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MERCED AND FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY FILLING IN
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MERCED AREA TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH QPF WITH THIS ONE THOUGH. SPC SREF PLUMES
ONLY GIVE AROUND 0.05 INCHES AT MCE. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM A 0.10 TO 0.25 IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH NEARLY 0.5 IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY. THE REST OF US WONT SEE MUCH
AT ALL. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
AN NO REAL COLD AIR IN PLACE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WED. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CREATE MORE OF AN INVERSION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FOG THINGS UP IN THE VALLEY EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED.

TRAVEL PLANS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR WED
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ONLY SHOW LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAYS TROUGH. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRY SOLN
AS THE ECM IS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE...
WHICH IS DRY. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MOISTURE PLUME IS
UNCERTAIN. THE RH AND QPF IS MORE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH RECENT
RUNS. FRI REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL DUE TO LACK OF TIMING
CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBLE THURS FEATURE. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS
A DRY SOLN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS THRU 04Z SAT...THEN MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HZ/BR THRU 18Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212221
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...THEN SLIGHT COOLING BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE BEING THE REMNANT
MOISTURE PILING UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT
BUT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A STRONG JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC STORM DROPS THIS DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND INCREASED UPPER WINDS SPELLS POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO FAVORS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...SO EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AND PUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IN A STRONG WIND ADVISORY. CAN ALSO SEE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO CLARIFY FOR THESE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY AREAS...THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS
TURN FIRST FROM SANTA BARBARA TO MONTECITO BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN IN THE TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA CORRIDORS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY LATER IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY IN THESE AREAS DUE TO GUSTY SANTA ANAS. HUMIDITY
STARTS TO DROP SUNDAY AND MAY BECOME MORE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES
AT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SHIFT INLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD SWING WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR WEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO CA LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT
A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
COAST FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KEKA 212211
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
211 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
NORTHWEST CA INTO SATURDAY. A DRY PATTERN WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH MONDAY) WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH RAIN FALLING PRIMARILY
NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
OR DRY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BOUT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN DEL
NORTE COUNTY AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL...INCLUDING FROM THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TODAY...IS
STILL PREDICTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAINFALL AROUND 4 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEL NORTE
AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE UPSLOPING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.

SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR COAST MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA. STILL...IN WIND
PRONE AREAS DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING. RPA


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
INDICATES THAT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS THE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE WEST
COAST. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST. MODELS IN THE VERY LONG RANGE INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO MODERATE AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA REDUCES CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KUKI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING
AT ALL AIRPORTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.


&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 212211
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
211 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
NORTHWEST CA INTO SATURDAY. A DRY PATTERN WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH MONDAY) WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH RAIN FALLING PRIMARILY
NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
OR DRY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BOUT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN DEL
NORTE COUNTY AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL...INCLUDING FROM THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TODAY...IS
STILL PREDICTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
RAINFALL AROUND 4 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEL NORTE
AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE UPSLOPING
WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.

SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR COAST MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA. STILL...IN WIND
PRONE AREAS DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING. RPA


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
INDICATES THAT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS THE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE WEST
COAST. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST. MODELS IN THE VERY LONG RANGE INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO MODERATE AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA REDUCES CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KUKI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING
AT ALL AIRPORTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.


&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 212143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...BUT DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SMALL BUT DYNAMICAL PACIFIC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT AS THE MULTIPLE HOURLY
WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM THE YUMA PROVING GROUNDS INDICATED...
A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE GENERATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GILA BEND...
PHOENIX...AND CASA GRANDE. EARLIER THIS MORNING 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN EL CENTRO AND IMPERIAL CA AS THE TROF MOVED THROUGH.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO PRECIP THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 212143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...BUT DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SMALL BUT DYNAMICAL PACIFIC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT AS THE MULTIPLE HOURLY
WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM THE YUMA PROVING GROUNDS INDICATED...
A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE GENERATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GILA BEND...
PHOENIX...AND CASA GRANDE. EARLIER THIS MORNING 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN EL CENTRO AND IMPERIAL CA AS THE TROF MOVED THROUGH.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO PRECIP THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 212143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...BUT DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SMALL BUT DYNAMICAL PACIFIC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT AS THE MULTIPLE HOURLY
WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM THE YUMA PROVING GROUNDS INDICATED...
A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE GENERATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GILA BEND...
PHOENIX...AND CASA GRANDE. EARLIER THIS MORNING 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN EL CENTRO AND IMPERIAL CA AS THE TROF MOVED THROUGH.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO PRECIP THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 212143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

 .SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. THE STORM TRACK WILL GENERALLY SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND...BUT DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SMALL BUT DYNAMICAL PACIFIC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT AS THE MULTIPLE HOURLY
WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FROM THE YUMA PROVING GROUNDS INDICATED...
A SMALL AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE GENERATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GILA BEND...
PHOENIX...AND CASA GRANDE. EARLIER THIS MORNING 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN EL CENTRO AND IMPERIAL CA AS THE TROF MOVED THROUGH.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO PRECIP THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE STORM TRACK THIS PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND SET UP DIAGONALLY
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS...
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO AZ ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN
AZ SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S...OR 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 212138
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
138 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
AND WARMER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY
BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MORE WIND PRONE AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LEFT-OVER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
EARLIER THIS MORNING...A POTENT VORT MAX INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPARKED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...MANY SPOTS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...SUCH AS LINDBERGH FIELD...WHILE OTHER SPOTS RECEIVED 0.30 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH SOME COASTAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVING GOTTEN
OVER 1.25 INCHES. EVEN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS GOT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST ORANGE
COUNTY...THE HIGH DESERTS AND SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE RECEIVED ALMOST
NO RAINFALL AT ALL. WE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE HIGHER PEAKS...WITH A SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 6000-6500 FEET.

SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE DESERTS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
FAIRLY DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES BY...AND
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH
40-50 MPH AND LOCAL 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE WILL BRING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
SANTA ANA WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 9-10 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
NAM12 SHOWING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 40-45
KT. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS...SAN GORGONIO PASS AND INTO THE SANTA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
ERADICATE THE MARINE LAYER...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH SINCE THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAT DAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THEN ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO COLORADO...WITH
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BUT STILL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THE BETTER EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR UNTIL POSSIBLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN ONSHORE. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO
BRING GRADUAL WARMING...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 5-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MTNS...SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUD LAYERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES GENERALLY AOA 3500 FT MSL. GRADUAL CLEARING
AFTER 22/00Z. NO STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS HAVE DECREASED.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.

MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS
AND LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 212138
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
138 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
AND WARMER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY
BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MORE WIND PRONE AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LEFT-OVER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
EARLIER THIS MORNING...A POTENT VORT MAX INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPARKED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...MANY SPOTS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...SUCH AS LINDBERGH FIELD...WHILE OTHER SPOTS RECEIVED 0.30 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH SOME COASTAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVING GOTTEN
OVER 1.25 INCHES. EVEN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS GOT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST ORANGE
COUNTY...THE HIGH DESERTS AND SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE RECEIVED ALMOST
NO RAINFALL AT ALL. WE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE HIGHER PEAKS...WITH A SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 6000-6500 FEET.

SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE DESERTS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
FAIRLY DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES BY...AND
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH
40-50 MPH AND LOCAL 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE WILL BRING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
SANTA ANA WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 9-10 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
NAM12 SHOWING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 40-45
KT. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS...SAN GORGONIO PASS AND INTO THE SANTA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
ERADICATE THE MARINE LAYER...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH SINCE THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAT DAY THAN ON SUNDAY. THEN ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO COLORADO...WITH
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BUT STILL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THE BETTER EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NON-FACTOR UNTIL POSSIBLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO TURN ONSHORE. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO
BRING GRADUAL WARMING...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 5-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MTNS...SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUD LAYERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES GENERALLY AOA 3500 FT MSL. GRADUAL CLEARING
AFTER 22/00Z. NO STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS HAVE DECREASED.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.

MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS
AND LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 211929 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211929 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211929 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211929 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211926 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 211926 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO ABOUT 10 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...GENERALLY
10KT OR LESS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
STRONGER CELLS/STORMS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND FORCING
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL SHOW LITTLE IMPROVEMENT...REMAINING POOR TO
FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS66 KHNX 211915
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1115 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRATUS CLOUD
DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTER OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND WEBCAMS WITH AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM.

FROM 257 AM PST...RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO THE GRAPEVINE AND PIUTE MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW MOVING INTO RIVERSIDE
COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN AND
INLAND EMPIRE. UPSTREAM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOWS UP WELL ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

A NICE AREA OF WARM FRONTAL OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST
PUSHING INTO OREGON AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FOR TODAY AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS BRING
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY.

FOR TURKEY WEEK, IT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR AREAS
OUTSIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY HOWEVER FOG
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE SJV.


&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 20Z FRI. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 18Z FRI AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB/BSO
AVN/FW...BSO/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY/BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 211915
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1115 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRATUS CLOUD
DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTER OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND WEBCAMS WITH AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM.

FROM 257 AM PST...RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO THE GRAPEVINE AND PIUTE MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW MOVING INTO RIVERSIDE
COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN AND
INLAND EMPIRE. UPSTREAM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOWS UP WELL ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

A NICE AREA OF WARM FRONTAL OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST
PUSHING INTO OREGON AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FOR TODAY AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS BRING
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY.

FOR TURKEY WEEK, IT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR AREAS
OUTSIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY HOWEVER FOG
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE SJV.


&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 20Z FRI. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 18Z FRI AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB/BSO
AVN/FW...BSO/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY/BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 211915
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1115 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRATUS CLOUD
DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTER OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND WEBCAMS WITH AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM.

FROM 257 AM PST...RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO THE GRAPEVINE AND PIUTE MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW MOVING INTO RIVERSIDE
COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN AND
INLAND EMPIRE. UPSTREAM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOWS UP WELL ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

A NICE AREA OF WARM FRONTAL OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST
PUSHING INTO OREGON AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FOR TODAY AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS BRING
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY.

FOR TURKEY WEEK, IT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR AREAS
OUTSIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY HOWEVER FOG
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE SJV.


&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 20Z FRI. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 18Z FRI AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB/BSO
AVN/FW...BSO/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY/BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 211915
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1115 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...LOWERED TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...STRATUS CLOUD
DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTER OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND WEBCAMS WITH AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM.

FROM 257 AM PST...RADAR SHOWS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO THE GRAPEVINE AND PIUTE MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW MOVING INTO RIVERSIDE
COUNTY AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN AND
INLAND EMPIRE. UPSTREAM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOWS UP WELL ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

A NICE AREA OF WARM FRONTAL OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST
PUSHING INTO OREGON AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FOR TODAY AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS BRING
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY.

FOR TURKEY WEEK, IT LOOKS DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A VERY STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR AREAS
OUTSIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY HOWEVER FOG
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE SJV.


&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 20Z FRI. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 18Z FRI AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931
KFAT 11-23       78:1932     49:2010     58:1926     27:1947

KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
KBFL 11-23       81:1907     50:1954     53:1977     22:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB/BSO
AVN/FW...BSO/BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY/BEAN
SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KMTR 211810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:44 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211810
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1010 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. REGION IS IN
THE CLEAN UP/CLEAR OUT PHASE FROM OVERNIGHT FOG THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL REPORTED AT SCATTERED TAF SITES THIS
MORNING... INCLUDING SALINAS... WATSONVILLE... AND THE NORTH BAY.
RISK OF ADVECTION FOG ARRIVING FROM THE DELTA HAS DWINDLED TO NEAR
ZERO THIS MORNING AFTER DELTA WINDS REVERSED DIRECTION AND VISBYS
AT KSUU INCREASED. ON THE HORIZON... MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CLOUD BASES OF AROUND 2500-3500 FT. SPOTTY LIFR/IFR IN AREAS OF
REMNANT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO BURN OFF
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN 12-14Z SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 11KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BEFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 18-20Z SAT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 12-16Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.


KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM PULSE. FOG BURNING OFF AT KSNS AS OF 18Z AND EXPECT VISBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. -RA ARRIVES BTWN 16Z AND 18Z
SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSBL 16-20Z SAT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:44 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RWW

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 211752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...MANY FIREWORKS AROUND THE COLBY FIRE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT
WITH 40+ LIGHTNING FLASHES EITHER IN-CLOUD OR CLOUD-TO-GROUND AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING SEDIMENT FLOWS AND A BUILD-UP OF MUD
BELOW SAN GABRIEL DAM. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKED MUCH
CLOSER TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN MODELS INDICATED AND STORMS POPPED
UP DIRECTLY UNDER THE COLD POOL. ONE GAUGE ABOVE THE COLBY FIRE HAD
0.19 INCH IN 3 MINUTES.

THE LOW HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST CA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE STACKING UP ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST LOS ANGELES TO EASTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES. EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35
MPH ARE REPORTED THROUGH CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE SANTA MONICAS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT WARMER IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE PACNW THIS MORNING AND WILL
BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TONIGHT. STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER IMPACT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...TURNING NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. MANY WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AND WILL LOOK AT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211752
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING AN OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...MANY FIREWORKS AROUND THE COLBY FIRE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT
WITH 40+ LIGHTNING FLASHES EITHER IN-CLOUD OR CLOUD-TO-GROUND AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CAUSING SEDIMENT FLOWS AND A BUILD-UP OF MUD
BELOW SAN GABRIEL DAM. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKED MUCH
CLOSER TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY THAN MODELS INDICATED AND STORMS POPPED
UP DIRECTLY UNDER THE COLD POOL. ONE GAUGE ABOVE THE COLBY FIRE HAD
0.19 INCH IN 3 MINUTES.

THE LOW HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEAST CA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE STACKING UP ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST LOS ANGELES TO EASTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTIES. EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35
MPH ARE REPORTED THROUGH CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE SANTA MONICAS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT WARMER IN MOST COASTAL AREAS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE PACNW THIS MORNING AND WILL
BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA TONIGHT. STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER IMPACT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...TURNING NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. MANY WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AND WILL LOOK AT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211739
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
937 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211739
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
937 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 22/18Z WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH 22/17Z
THEN MIXED WEAK NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KSGX 211717
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
917 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOON...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DRY AND WARMER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MORE WIND
PRONE AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER...WITH EARLIER SHOWERS HAVING
HAVING DISSIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER
THIS MORNING...A POTENT VORT MAX INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS WHAT SPARKED THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...MANY SPOTS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...SUCH AS LINDBERGH FIELD...WHILE OTHER SPOTS
RECEIVED 0.30 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH SOME COASTAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
HAVING GOTTEN OVER 1.25 INCHES. EVEN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS GOT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST
ORANGE COUNTY...THE HIGH DESERTS AND SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE RECEIVED
ALMOST NO RAINFALL AT ALL. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT UP TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW FELL ON THE HIGHER PEAKS...WITH A SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET. AS THE VORT MAX AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE DESERTS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
FAIRLY DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES BY...AND
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH
LOCAL 50-55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED SPOTS...SUCH AS THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE WILL BRING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
SANTA ANA WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 8-10 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
NAM12 SHOWING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 30-45
KT. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS...SAN GORGONIO PASS AND INTO THE SANTA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH
THE MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GRADIENTS
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKEN A LITTLE ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH SINCE THE
GRADIENT SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAT DAY. THEN ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO COLORADO...WITH
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING AND POSSIBLY SOME BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BETTER EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ONCE AGAIN...WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A NON-FACTOR UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO
TURN ONSHORE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GRADUAL WARMING...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS REACHING 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
211600Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MTNS...SCATTERED LIGHT-MOD SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z...TAPERING OFF
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO 2-4 SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN 1500-6000 FT MSL...LOCALLY
HIGHER...WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURED MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT MSL.
BKN/OVC CLOUD LAYERS BECOMING SCT TO LOCALLY BKN AFTER 18Z WITH
BASES GENERALLY AOA 3500 FT MSL. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER 22/00Z. NO
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

DESERTS...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS. AREAS OF SFC WINDS WEST
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z ON THE DESERT
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE OUTER WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS AND LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHILE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK...WIND AND HUMIDITY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE





000
FXUS66 KSGX 211717
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
917 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOON...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DRY AND WARMER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MORE WIND
PRONE AREAS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER...WITH EARLIER SHOWERS HAVING
HAVING DISSIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER
THIS MORNING...A POTENT VORT MAX INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS WHAT SPARKED THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...MANY SPOTS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...SUCH AS LINDBERGH FIELD...WHILE OTHER SPOTS
RECEIVED 0.30 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH SOME COASTAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
HAVING GOTTEN OVER 1.25 INCHES. EVEN THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS GOT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...NORTHWEST
ORANGE COUNTY...THE HIGH DESERTS AND SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE RECEIVED
ALMOST NO RAINFALL AT ALL. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT UP TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW FELL ON THE HIGHER PEAKS...WITH A SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
6000-6500 FEET. AS THE VORT MAX AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE DESERTS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER
FAIRLY DEEP...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES. THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES BY...AND
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH
LOCAL 50-55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED SPOTS...SUCH AS THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE WILL BRING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
SANTA ANA WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF 8-10 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
NAM12 SHOWING DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 30-45
KT. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS...SAN GORGONIO PASS AND INTO THE SANTA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH
THE MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GRADIENTS
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKEN A LITTLE ON MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH SINCE THE
GRADIENT SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER WINDS THAT DAY. THEN ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO COLORADO...WITH
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING AND POSSIBLY SOME BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BETTER EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD FAVOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ONCE AGAIN...WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A NON-FACTOR UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO
TURN ONSHORE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING GRADUAL WARMING...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS REACHING 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
211600Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MTNS...SCATTERED LIGHT-MOD SHOWERS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z...TAPERING OFF
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO 2-4 SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN 1500-6000 FT MSL...LOCALLY
HIGHER...WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURED MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT MSL.
BKN/OVC CLOUD LAYERS BECOMING SCT TO LOCALLY BKN AFTER 18Z WITH
BASES GENERALLY AOA 3500 FT MSL. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER 22/00Z. NO
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

DESERTS...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS. AREAS OF SFC WINDS WEST
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z ON THE DESERT
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE OUTER WATERS. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH AT THE MOST WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MIDDAY SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15-25 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO MID 60S. RECENT RAINS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYS AND LOW DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. WHILE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
BE ELEVATED NEXT WEEK...WIND AND HUMIDITY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211653
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 211653
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING MARGINALLY STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN GIVE
AWAY TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DROP SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND SETS UP A
SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER DETAILS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS...COLD NIGHTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE WARNING BEING
ISSUED.

THE SANTA ANA PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1310Z.

AT 12Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AROUND KLAX AT 13Z THIS MORNING.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...LIFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AROUND KPRB
THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED MVFR TO VFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME
VFR AFTER 16 TO 18Z TODAY.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN EASTERN LA COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS BANKING
UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LA/VTU
COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...21/900 AM PST...

IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHEN TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE FROM
VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTEND OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN
290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CREATE
SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
EXTENDING SOUTH TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL/BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211651
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
851 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2014

.Synopsis...
The next weather system moves through NorCal late today into
Saturday bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure builds
over the area next week for generally dry weather and milder
daytime temperatures along with areas of morning valley fog.

&&

.Update Discussion...
Forecast for today on track with only minor tweaks to this
morning`s sky cover and POPs this afternoon. Areas of fog will
linger this morning but visibilities have started to improve over
the last several hours. Latest hi-res guidance suggests precip
will hold off until 18-19Z in the far NW before rain overspreads
the rest of the area tonight into Saturday. Latest QPF values
range from 0.10-0.4" in the valley to 0.5-1.5" in the foothills
and mountains. Snow amounts will be limited as snow levels will
rise above 7000-8000 ft as system moves in tonight. CEO

.Previous Discussion (Today through Monday)...
With the second system now existed, low clouds and fog hamper
visibility in the Central Valley and up into Clear Lake area this
morning. The clouds had already set up last night before any major
fog. The clouds act as a blanket to keep the temps from dropping
very much, so getting widespread dense fog may be difficult.
However, satellite is showing some breaks in the cloudiness which
would lead to denser fog.

The next system which is more of a plume of moisture embedded in
strong jet stream energy will streak across NorCal tonight and
Saturday. This system has the deeper moisture with precipitable
water values 1.00-1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts will range from
.10-.60 for valleys and 0.75-1.50 inches for the mountains,
beginning late today up north and spreading southeastward
tonight. Snow levels will be high with this warm system starting
around 6500 feet...but rising to 7500-8000 feet after midnight
tonight. Only an inch or two of snow will fall at highest
elevations, except 5-7 inches over Lassen Peak.

Ridging and northwest flow will develop on Sunday into Monday
with drying conditions. temperatures will remain near normal.
JClapp

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

All models in agreement that ridging will dominate NorCal with
dry, mild weather into Thursday. Patchy fog is possible in the
early morning hours as moisture left over from the recent storms
and cold overnight lows could allow for fog development. Daytime
afternoon highs will be nice and warm (about 4-10 degrees above
normal) for our region.

On Friday, the models diverge a bit and there could be a slight
chance of light precipitation moving into the coastal range and
northern mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR early this morning with ceilings and
visibilities after yesterday`s weather system. Satellite shows
some areas of patchy fog/low clouds in the valley and delta. It
also shows some high clouds just offshore that will stream across
NorCal this morning. Those high clouds may help break up the low
clouds. Conditions will improve by late morning into afternoon.
The next wave precipitation into interior Norcal will be later
today with the bulk of rain/snow occurring after 4 pm. This will
bring widespread MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys across NorCal
into Saturday. Light winds for much of today, but southerly winds
will increase ahead of tonight`s frontal passage.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KEKA 211636 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
NORTHWEST CA TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A DRY PATTERN WILL
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. RAIN IS NOW FALLING AT THE OFFICE IN EUREKA
AND SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
ARE REPORTING RAIN. THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT AND
EXPAND THE AREA OF RAIN FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN COMING INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 417 AM PST...

DISCUSSION..CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN JUST ENTERING THE RADAR
SCOPE WELL WEST OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WARM SECTOR RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AROUND
BEFORE SUNSET. LATER IN THE EVENING...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENCROACH THE NORTH COAST...A SLIGHTLY
PERPENDICULAR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO ALL LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO
BE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY RISING TO
AROUND 9000 FEET...SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DID
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF CRESCENT
CITY BUT LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OF NEAR 45 MPH OVER
TRADITIONAL SITES LIKE TRINIDAD HEAD AND CEC IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST.  RPA/JT

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS AS DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL SITES. FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO OCCUR
AROUND 6Z TONIGHT...AT THAT TIME SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK AT CEC
NEAR 35 KTS. BUMPY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
IN THE VCNTY OF ACV AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIG AND
REDUCED VIS A CERTAINTY FOR COASTAL AND INTERIOR SITES THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SEAS INCREASING FURTHER AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THUR BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS.   WENT WITH
ECMWF AND DGEX THAT BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211636 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO
NORTHWEST CA TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A DRY PATTERN WILL
COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. RAIN IS NOW FALLING AT THE OFFICE IN EUREKA
AND SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
ARE REPORTING RAIN. THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO 100 PERCENT AND
EXPAND THE AREA OF RAIN FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN COMING INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW. RPA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 417 AM PST...

DISCUSSION..CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN JUST ENTERING THE RADAR
SCOPE WELL WEST OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WARM SECTOR RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AROUND
BEFORE SUNSET. LATER IN THE EVENING...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENCROACH THE NORTH COAST...A SLIGHTLY
PERPENDICULAR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO ALL LOCATIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO
BE IN DEL NORTE COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY RISING TO
AROUND 9000 FEET...SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DID
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF CRESCENT
CITY BUT LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS OF NEAR 45 MPH OVER
TRADITIONAL SITES LIKE TRINIDAD HEAD AND CEC IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST.  RPA/JT

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS AS DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL SITES. FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO OCCUR
AROUND 6Z TONIGHT...AT THAT TIME SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK AT CEC
NEAR 35 KTS. BUMPY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
IN THE VCNTY OF ACV AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIG AND
REDUCED VIS A CERTAINTY FOR COASTAL AND INTERIOR SITES THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SEAS INCREASING FURTHER AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THUR BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS.   WENT WITH
ECMWF AND DGEX THAT BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 211636
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211636
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
836 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PST FRIDAY...STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. LOOK FOR RAIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE
EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND SF BAY
AREA. CNRFC QPF VALUES INDICATE 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS, 1/2"-1" FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH BAY, AND GENERALLY
1/4"-1/2" FOR SF BAY REGION PLUS SC MOUNTAINS. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP LESS THAN 1/4". DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD BE HERE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE DISTRICT
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NOW THE AREA US UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG SETTLING INTO INLAND
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY
VISIBILITIES ARE OVER 3 MILES..BUT A FEW LOCATIONS (WATSONVILLE
AND SAN MARTIN) HAVE OCCASIONALLY DIPPED BELOW 1 MILE. TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FIZZLE AS THE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS
THE REST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE BAY AREA
AND SOUTH INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...EXCEPT LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE
IN THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:54 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. DIFFICULT
AVIATION FORECAST AGAIN WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOG TO
DEVELOP IN KSTS AND KSNS. LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND SF BAY
AND THOSE WILL PROBABLY EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BRIEFLY FILTER IN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM
FRONTAL RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY LATE TONIGHT REACHING
THE BAY AREA BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS THROUGH
17-18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT EAST WINDS WILL BRING CIGS FROM THE
DELTA INTO THE BAY THIS MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD FILTER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE NEAR
THE COAST AT KMRY BUT CLEARING HAS LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT KSNS. EXPECT ANY MORNING CIGS TO LIFT BY 18-19Z THE
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:47 AM PST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING NW SWELLS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 211505
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 211505
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211345
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
545 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WENT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS ON THE SAN BERNARDINO FRONT RANGE GOT
OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SEE LAXRRMSGX FOR DETAILS. THERE WERE A
COUPLE REPORTS OF PEA-SIZE HAIL FROM THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE. A
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT OVERLAPPED WITH MAXIMUM VORTICITY (SPINNING
MOTION) OVER THAT SUBREGION TO PRODUCE THE TSTORMS. BUT THERE WERE
NO TSTORMS IN ORANGE OR SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS OF THIS WRITING.
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE AND SOUTHERNMOST
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ESCAPED THE RAIN SO FAR. THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
UPSTREAM ARE CLEARING FAST IN LA COUNTY SO WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDDAY. AFTER THE SHOWERS END TODAY WILL BE COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 245 AM...
 HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD LATE TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A
STRONG NORTHWEST JET S