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000
FXUS65 KPSR 271014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST TODAY...PEAKING IN THE UPPER LOWER 80S... AND THEN
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...BUT WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD BREAK 80 DEGREES IN
MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...BUT GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS OF
572-576DM STARTING FRIDAY AND LIKELY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GRADUAL COOLING AFTER TODAY...BUT
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A STRONG
POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
GIVING RISE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
DEEP LOW SITUATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ALSO INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SUB-TROPICAL JET AND MOISTURE
FEED. BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUB-TROPICAL JET.

BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE POTENTIAL STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INFLUENCE AND BROAD BUT
WEAK ASCENT ALOFT. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND A BIT DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD A STRONGER
MOISTURE FEED AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES STARTING SOMETIME TUESDAY AND
LIKELY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
A DRIER OR EVEN COMPLETELY DRY SOLUTION...KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER OFF THE COAST WHILE ALSO BRINGING MUCH LESS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND...HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
EDGED HIGHER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ENHANCE
TYPICAL NE-LY DRAINAGE WINDS A BIT OVER THE GREATER PHX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT...OR EVEN PREVENT
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS FROM DEVELOPING ON THU AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
THE MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB WILL LIKELY IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME ACROSS THE PHX AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW-LEVEL NE-LY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC
VISIBILITIES FROM BEING AFFECTED AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 271014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST TODAY...PEAKING IN THE UPPER LOWER 80S... AND THEN
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...BUT WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD BREAK 80 DEGREES IN
MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...BUT GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS OF
572-576DM STARTING FRIDAY AND LIKELY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GRADUAL COOLING AFTER TODAY...BUT
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A STRONG
POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
GIVING RISE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
DEEP LOW SITUATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ALSO INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SUB-TROPICAL JET AND MOISTURE
FEED. BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUB-TROPICAL JET.

BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE POTENTIAL STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INFLUENCE AND BROAD BUT
WEAK ASCENT ALOFT. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND A BIT DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD A STRONGER
MOISTURE FEED AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES STARTING SOMETIME TUESDAY AND
LIKELY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
A DRIER OR EVEN COMPLETELY DRY SOLUTION...KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER OFF THE COAST WHILE ALSO BRINGING MUCH LESS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND...HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
EDGED HIGHER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ENHANCE
TYPICAL NE-LY DRAINAGE WINDS A BIT OVER THE GREATER PHX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT...OR EVEN PREVENT
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS FROM DEVELOPING ON THU AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
THE MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB WILL LIKELY IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME ACROSS THE PHX AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW-LEVEL NE-LY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC
VISIBILITIES FROM BEING AFFECTED AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 271014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST TODAY...PEAKING IN THE UPPER LOWER 80S... AND THEN
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...BUT WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD BREAK 80 DEGREES IN
MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...BUT GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS OF
572-576DM STARTING FRIDAY AND LIKELY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GRADUAL COOLING AFTER TODAY...BUT
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A STRONG
POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
GIVING RISE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
DEEP LOW SITUATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ALSO INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SUB-TROPICAL JET AND MOISTURE
FEED. BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUB-TROPICAL JET.

BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE POTENTIAL STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INFLUENCE AND BROAD BUT
WEAK ASCENT ALOFT. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND A BIT DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD A STRONGER
MOISTURE FEED AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES STARTING SOMETIME TUESDAY AND
LIKELY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
A DRIER OR EVEN COMPLETELY DRY SOLUTION...KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER OFF THE COAST WHILE ALSO BRINGING MUCH LESS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND...HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
EDGED HIGHER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ENHANCE
TYPICAL NE-LY DRAINAGE WINDS A BIT OVER THE GREATER PHX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT...OR EVEN PREVENT
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS FROM DEVELOPING ON THU AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
THE MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB WILL LIKELY IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME ACROSS THE PHX AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW-LEVEL NE-LY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC
VISIBILITIES FROM BEING AFFECTED AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 271014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST TODAY...PEAKING IN THE UPPER LOWER 80S... AND THEN
SLOWLY COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY...BUT WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD BREAK 80 DEGREES IN
MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...BUT GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS OF
572-576DM STARTING FRIDAY AND LIKELY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GRADUAL COOLING AFTER TODAY...BUT
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A STRONG
POLAR JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
GIVING RISE TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
DEEP LOW SITUATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ALSO INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SUB-TROPICAL JET AND MOISTURE
FEED. BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST VIA THE SUB-TROPICAL JET.

BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR REGION STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE POTENTIAL STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INFLUENCE AND BROAD BUT
WEAK ASCENT ALOFT. THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND A BIT DRIER SOLUTION. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GENERALLY POINTS TOWARD A STRONGER
MOISTURE FEED AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES STARTING SOMETIME TUESDAY AND
LIKELY ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
A DRIER OR EVEN COMPLETELY DRY SOLUTION...KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER OFF THE COAST WHILE ALSO BRINGING MUCH LESS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND...HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
EDGED HIGHER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ENHANCE
TYPICAL NE-LY DRAINAGE WINDS A BIT OVER THE GREATER PHX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT...OR EVEN PREVENT
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS FROM DEVELOPING ON THU AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
THE MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB WILL LIKELY IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME ACROSS THE PHX AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW-LEVEL NE-LY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC
VISIBILITIES FROM BEING AFFECTED AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 270550
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LATEST 00Z MODELS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN CRESCENT CITY AREA ABOUT 6-7AM. MODELS SAG
THIS FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REST OF DEL NORTE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS TRINIDAD BEFORE PULLING IT BACK
TO THE WEST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THOUGH IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM MUCH WETTER THAN GFS THOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IS ABOUT THE SAME. VERY SHARP RAINFALL
GRADIENT WITH VERY WET NAM FORECASTING ABOUT 0.60 IN THIS AFTERNOON
PERIOD AT CRESCENT CITY WITH ALMOST 1.5 INCHES NEAR SMITH RIVER. GFS
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT 0.10 AT CRESCENT CITY WITH SMITH RIVER ABOUT
0.20. NAM AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO WHICH WOULD BE WETTER MODEL COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING WHICH SHOWS UNCERTAINITY IS JUST WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. WILL LEAVE GRIDDED FORECAST AS IS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
WHERE FRONT STALLS AS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM WOULD GIVE LOCAL
STREET AND CREEK FLOODING. WILL UPDATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TO HOLD
OFF RAIN AT KACV AND KUKI UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST CA, IT LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE HONEYDEW IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PUSHES BACK EAST THROUGH ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. DEAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 329 PM...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN
DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE ECMWF
AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT THE
SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP MAY
FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 945 PM...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KT STREAMING OVER
AREA AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS AGAIN DEVELOPED IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE THE TRINITY VALLEY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST BUT EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO START AT KCEC ABOUT 6-7 AM WITH VFR
CEILINGS. FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOOKING FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN AT KCEC WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 10 AM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING BUT
CIGS AT KCEC WITH REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR RAIN
TO MOVE INTO KACV AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS BECOME MVFR. DEAN

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 945 PM...NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTED SEAS FROM 4 TO 7
FEET AS OF 04Z THIS EVENING. A WESTERLY SWELL WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ABOUT 100 TO 125 NM OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY THUNDER
TO THE OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINING WEST OF THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. STP

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS, BUT ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BUILDING W SWELL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A
BUILDING W SWELL ON THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE
MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 270550
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
950 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...LATEST 00Z MODELS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN CRESCENT CITY AREA ABOUT 6-7AM. MODELS SAG
THIS FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REST OF DEL NORTE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS TRINIDAD BEFORE PULLING IT BACK
TO THE WEST. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THOUGH IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM MUCH WETTER THAN GFS THOUGH TIMING OF HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON IS ABOUT THE SAME. VERY SHARP RAINFALL
GRADIENT WITH VERY WET NAM FORECASTING ABOUT 0.60 IN THIS AFTERNOON
PERIOD AT CRESCENT CITY WITH ALMOST 1.5 INCHES NEAR SMITH RIVER. GFS
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT 0.10 AT CRESCENT CITY WITH SMITH RIVER ABOUT
0.20. NAM AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO WHICH WOULD BE WETTER MODEL COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING WHICH SHOWS UNCERTAINITY IS JUST WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. WILL LEAVE GRIDDED FORECAST AS IS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
WHERE FRONT STALLS AS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM WOULD GIVE LOCAL
STREET AND CREEK FLOODING. WILL UPDATE THE AVIATION FORECAST TO HOLD
OFF RAIN AT KACV AND KUKI UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST CA, IT LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE HONEYDEW IN THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PUSHES BACK EAST THROUGH ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. DEAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 329 PM...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-
OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN
DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE ECMWF
AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT THE
SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP MAY
FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 945 PM...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15KT STREAMING OVER
AREA AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS AGAIN DEVELOPED IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE THE TRINITY VALLEY. FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST BUT EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO START AT KCEC ABOUT 6-7 AM WITH VFR
CEILINGS. FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOOKING FOR MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN AT KCEC WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 10 AM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING BUT
CIGS AT KCEC WITH REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO DISSIPATE AS HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR RAIN
TO MOVE INTO KACV AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS BECOME MVFR. DEAN

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 945 PM...NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTED SEAS FROM 4 TO 7
FEET AS OF 04Z THIS EVENING. A WESTERLY SWELL WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS INCREASING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ABOUT 100 TO 125 NM OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY THUNDER
TO THE OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINING WEST OF THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND THE PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. STP

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS, BUT ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BUILDING W SWELL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A
BUILDING W SWELL ON THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE
MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION,
STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 270547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 270547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 270547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 270547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:42 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 270534 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 0425Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1100 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS65 KPSR 270530 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET...AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHING A HIGH OF 74...3 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
DATE OF 71. THE ONLY ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE IN
SOME AREAS FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMOKE TO BUILD UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT LATER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (1-2 DEGREES C) AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NE-LY WINDS HELP TO
WARM TEMPS FURTHER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM IS
CONCERNED...OTHER THAN ADDING SOME LOCAL SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...CURRENT INHERITED FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ENHANCE
TYPICAL NE-LY DRAINAGE WINDS A BIT OVER THE GREATER PHX AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND WILL ALSO LIKELY INHIBIT...OR EVEN PREVENT
TYPICAL WESTERLY WINDS FROM DEVELOPING ON THU AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
THE MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB WILL LIKELY IMPACT SLANT-RANGE
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME ACROSS THE PHX AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW-LEVEL NE-LY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SFC
VISIBILITIES FROM BEING AFFECTED AT THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES. WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
914 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...(Tonight through Saturday)
Tonight and Thursday morning the dew points are coming up a
little but there should be a lot of high clouds that could help to
prevent a lot of fog from forming. Patchy fog still looks
possible during the late night and early morning hours. For
Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will begin to break down and
shift eastward.

On Friday Some precipitation will be possible over the far
northwestern part of the state in the morning and may spread and
start to precipitate along the coastal range from around Lake
County northward and over northern half of the Sacramento valley.
There continues to be some timing differences but models do agree
on bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern
part of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the
far north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early
during the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow
levels will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday
daytime but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday
night to impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south
the models are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening
hours to late at night or early Saturday morning for the far
southern sections of the CWA.

Saturday will see the rain and higher elevation snow continuing
but below major trans-sierra pass levels. Major precipitation
discrepancies exist between the models so snowfall could range
from a little more than several inches to a foot or more near the
major trans-sierra pass levels. Stay tuned for updates and be
prepared to carry chains if traveling in the high country this
weekend.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning fog/ST and
local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 270514
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
914 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...(Tonight through Saturday)
Tonight and Thursday morning the dew points are coming up a
little but there should be a lot of high clouds that could help to
prevent a lot of fog from forming. Patchy fog still looks
possible during the late night and early morning hours. For
Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will begin to break down and
shift eastward.

On Friday Some precipitation will be possible over the far
northwestern part of the state in the morning and may spread and
start to precipitate along the coastal range from around Lake
County northward and over northern half of the Sacramento valley.
There continues to be some timing differences but models do agree
on bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern
part of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the
far north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early
during the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow
levels will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday
daytime but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday
night to impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south
the models are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening
hours to late at night or early Saturday morning for the far
southern sections of the CWA.

Saturday will see the rain and higher elevation snow continuing
but below major trans-sierra pass levels. Major precipitation
discrepancies exist between the models so snowfall could range
from a little more than several inches to a foot or more near the
major trans-sierra pass levels. Stay tuned for updates and be
prepared to carry chains if traveling in the high country this
weekend.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning fog/ST and
local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 270457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 270457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...HYDRO CONCERNS...AND STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE FRIDAY AND PRESS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY...IS THEN LIKELY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO GENERATE DRY AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD. HIGHS WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND TWO DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED...AT OAKLAND MUSEUM (72) AND SALINAS
AIRPORT (82).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. MOST OF THE COOLING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON...AND WHERE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER THE SUN.

THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BLOCKED BY THE SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE. BUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR SATELLITE AS A COMMA CLOUD
OUR NEAR 35N/148W...WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL
IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE SF BAY
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN INTENSITY BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
CALIFORNIA. THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA
AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
ALONG 140W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
IDEA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT OUR AREA COULD SEE SOME HYDRO
ISSUES...INCLUDING MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 270430
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BROUGHT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL AND VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 80S. A FEW
STATIONS ECLIPSED 90 IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 95
AT UC RIVERSIDE. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN TODAY AND MORE ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW. RECORDS THAT ARE WITHIN REACH THURSDAY INCLUDE SANTA ANA
(86)...SAN DIEGO (83)...RIVERSIDE (89) AND EL CAJON (87).

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL SEND WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FRIDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ZIPPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT THE 00Z GFS THIS EVENING REMAINS DRY AND WILL HOLD
TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A PLUME OF 1.5"
PRECIPITABLE WATER TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS
WOULD RESULT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE TROUGH
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN
INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
270330Z...OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 270430
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BROUGHT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL AND VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 80S. A FEW
STATIONS ECLIPSED 90 IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 95
AT UC RIVERSIDE. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN TODAY AND MORE ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW. RECORDS THAT ARE WITHIN REACH THURSDAY INCLUDE SANTA ANA
(86)...SAN DIEGO (83)...RIVERSIDE (89) AND EL CAJON (87).

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL SEND WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FRIDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ZIPPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT THE 00Z GFS THIS EVENING REMAINS DRY AND WILL HOLD
TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A PLUME OF 1.5"
PRECIPITABLE WATER TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS
WOULD RESULT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE TROUGH
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN
INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
270330Z...OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 270430
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BROUGHT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL AND VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 80S. A FEW
STATIONS ECLIPSED 90 IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 95
AT UC RIVERSIDE. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN TODAY AND MORE ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW. RECORDS THAT ARE WITHIN REACH THURSDAY INCLUDE SANTA ANA
(86)...SAN DIEGO (83)...RIVERSIDE (89) AND EL CAJON (87).

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL SEND WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FRIDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ZIPPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT THE 00Z GFS THIS EVENING REMAINS DRY AND WILL HOLD
TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A PLUME OF 1.5"
PRECIPITABLE WATER TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS
WOULD RESULT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE TROUGH
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN
INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
270330Z...OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KSGX 270430
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BROUGHT ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL AND VALLEYS HIGHS IN THE 80S. A FEW
STATIONS ECLIPSED 90 IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 95
AT UC RIVERSIDE. RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN TODAY AND MORE ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW. RECORDS THAT ARE WITHIN REACH THURSDAY INCLUDE SANTA ANA
(86)...SAN DIEGO (83)...RIVERSIDE (89) AND EL CAJON (87).

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET WILL SEND WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER FRIDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY DEEPEN
THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND
EACH NIGHT. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ZIPPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES
COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT THE 00Z GFS THIS EVENING REMAINS DRY AND WILL HOLD
TO THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAKES
AIM AT THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A PLUME OF 1.5"
PRECIPITABLE WATER TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS
WOULD RESULT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE TROUGH
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN
INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
270330Z...OTHER THAN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL











000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 270355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
755 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH EXITS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ON SUNDAY...A
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
SUNDAY THEN EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER WARM ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS
TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A COUPLE OF READINGS
INTO THE LOW 90S. THERE WAS ALSO TWO RECORD HIGHS SET WHICH WERE 87
DEGREES AT LONG BEACH AIRPORT (TIED OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1959)
AND 73 AT SANDBERG (OLD RECORD 70 SET IN 1953).

CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST (-4.8 MB
LAX-DAG AT 03Z) WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING LOCALLY GUSTY NE WINDS
BELOW AND THRU THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND ALSO TO FOOTHILL
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS IN THE BREEZY AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. FOR THE
COLDEST WIND SHELTERED COASTAL VALLEYS SUCH AS THE OJAI
VALLEY...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRI THRU
SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS MOVING INTO NRN CA BY SAT. THIS
WILL SET UP A BROAD W FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND PARTS OF THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THRU SAT...ALTHO SOME HI CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD END BY THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. SOME GUSTY S TO SW WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST AND VLYS...WITH A FEW LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST VLYS
OF L.A./VTU COUNTY. A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL BACK ON FRI BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/730 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. OTHERWISE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH
AREA APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST...SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A
MORE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS65 KPSR 270353
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET...AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHING A HIGH OF 74...3 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
DATE OF 71. THE ONLY ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE IN
SOME AREAS FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMOKE TO BUILD UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT LATER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (1-2 DEGREES C) AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NE-LY WINDS HELP TO
WARM TEMPS FURTHER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM IS
CONCERNED...OTHER THAN ADDING SOME LOCAL SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...CURRENT INHERITED FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 270353
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET...AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHING A HIGH OF 74...3 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
DATE OF 71. THE ONLY ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE IN
SOME AREAS FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMOKE TO BUILD UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT LATER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (1-2 DEGREES C) AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NE-LY WINDS HELP TO
WARM TEMPS FURTHER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM IS
CONCERNED...OTHER THAN ADDING SOME LOCAL SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...CURRENT INHERITED FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 270353
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET...AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHING A HIGH OF 74...3 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
DATE OF 71. THE ONLY ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE IN
SOME AREAS FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMOKE TO BUILD UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT LATER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (1-2 DEGREES C) AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NE-LY WINDS HELP TO
WARM TEMPS FURTHER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM IS
CONCERNED...OTHER THAN ADDING SOME LOCAL SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...CURRENT INHERITED FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 270353
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET...AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS NOW BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHING A HIGH OF 74...3 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
DATE OF 71. THE ONLY ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE IN
SOME AREAS FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMOKE TO BUILD UP A BIT MORE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT LATER ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF A LITTLE MORE WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (1-2 DEGREES C) AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE NE-LY WINDS HELP TO
WARM TEMPS FURTHER NEAR THE SURFACE. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM IS
CONCERNED...OTHER THAN ADDING SOME LOCAL SMOKE TO THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS...CURRENT INHERITED FORECASTS LOOK GOOD...AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 262350 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
350 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE
CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL
CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL WOE DURING THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE.
AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN
09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 262350 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
350 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE
CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL
CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL WOE DURING THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE.
AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN
09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262343
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING. THESE INSULATING CLOUDS
WILL WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER CANT QUITE RULE OUT
FG AT KSTS... BUT MAY DO SO AT THE 06Z TAFS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:33 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: MM/DRP
MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 262337
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262337
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262337
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262337
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM. FOOTNOTE...ALTHOUGH
THIS STORM BRINGS BENEFICIAL WATER INTO CENTRAL CA...IT WILL BY NO
MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE VERY WET STORMS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORMAL AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS SEASON.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO WISH
EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE YOU THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 262333 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 262333 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMENTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2330Z...

AT 2145Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KEKA 262329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BAND JUST OUTSIDE 130W MOVING EASTWARD. GFS...ECMWF AND
NAM12 SHOW THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA-OREGON BORDER ON THU. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RAIN DEVELOPING IN DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY ON THU WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN 12HRS. THE
ECMWF AND NAM12 HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...ABOUT 0.25IN PER THE
ECMWF AND ABOUT 0.15IN PER THE NAM12. LEANED TOWARD THE ECWMF AND
CNRFC/WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 0.50IN. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT
THE SMITH RIVER COULD RISE RAPIDLY TO MONITOR STAGE. SOME PRECIP
MAY FORM SOUTH OF DEL NORTE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OR-CA BORDER THU NIGHT...BEFORE A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. THE STORM WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE ALL THE MAJOR
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY; ABOVE 5500 TO 6000 FT THAT IS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL SKETCHY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SECONDARY RAMP UP IN RAIN RATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. IT IS GOING TO
BE RAINY AND WET THROUGH SAT...SO ROCKSLIDES OR MUDSLIDES AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAIN ARRIVES. THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE FASTEST WITH SPREADING RAIN
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE ECWMF WAS
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS HEAVY ON THE RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE WILL SEE A LOT OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM12 INDICATES STRONGER DRYING AND COOLING AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SAT EVENING. THE NAM12 SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY. IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT...SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING
DRY TOO. FOR NOW SIDED WITH SPECTRAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN SOGGY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THE RAIN ARE QUESTIONABLE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
STRUGGLE FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
EASTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED IT DOWN. THE 0Z GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH WE
WILL SEE A FEW MORE BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN...MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE STARTS TO
FALL OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS START TO PART
COMPANY AND GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. THE GFS HAS IT DRYING OUT BY
WED WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH WET WEATHER. AVERAGED THE TWO
MODELS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS PRODUCED
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS REGIONAL AIRPORTS TODAY AFTER PATCHY
MORNING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. UKIAH...EUREKA/ARCATA
AND CRESCENT CITY AIRPORTS HAVE EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IS COMING TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST. AT CRESCENT CITY AND
ARCATA`S AIRPORT...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL START LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...AND RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE SOUTHERLY
BREEZE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 5 FT AND ARE MIXED WITH A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE WEST AND BUILDING WIND WAVES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE 1745Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS ZONE 470 AND 10-
20 KT ACROSS ZONE 475. THIS MATCHED THE FORECAST AND INDICATES THE
SC.Y THAT JUST STARTED FOR ZONE 470 IS ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRIDAY. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UNCHANGED FOR THE OUTER WATERS, BUT
ADDED ONE FOR ZONE 450 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING W SWELL IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED WITH A BUILDING W SWELL ON
THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES BUILDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD EASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY AS A
DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT OR THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. BUT AGAIN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WIND DIFFERS BASED ON THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN WENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BUT HOW HIGH, DIRECTION, STEEPNESS, ETC. IS TOO HARD TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 262318
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure over the area today bringing above normal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds ahead of the
approaching storm system are moving through the area. Temperatures
this afternoon should peak in the mid to upper 60s in the Central
Valley and foothills and 50s and 60s in the mountains which is
around 7 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mostly
clear skies and remnant low level moisture will bring a return of
the patchy fog to the valleys again Thursday morning. Ridge
weakens Thursday as trough approaches the area but will still be warm
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures for Thanksgiving afternoon
are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the Valley and mid
40s to low 60s in the mountains.

The weather will turn cooler and wetter Friday into next week as
several storm systems move through the area. Temperatures start to
cool on Friday as the upper level trough nears the coast. High temperatures
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Valley and mid 40s to 50s in
the mountains on Friday and drop in the 50s in the Valley and 30s
and 40s in the mountains on Saturday. Clouds will increase on
Friday with precipitation expected to start moving into the
Coastal range by Friday afternoon. Precipitation will spread
southeast across the area to around the I-80 corridor Friday
evening and farther south into the Northern San Joaquin Valley
Saturday morning. Snow levels are expected to be around 7500 ft
Friday and lower to around 6000 feet Saturday. This will bring
snow down to the Sierra passes this weekend possibly causing
travel delays. A few inches of snow are possible in the Sierra
with around 18 inches possible for the top of Mt. Lassen.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday are expected to be around
a quarter to half an inch in the Central Valley and . Generally
around 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the mountains...mainly north of
I-80. Southerly winds will bring breezy conditions on Saturday also.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

Becoming BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning
fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 262318
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure over the area today bringing above normal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds ahead of the
approaching storm system are moving through the area. Temperatures
this afternoon should peak in the mid to upper 60s in the Central
Valley and foothills and 50s and 60s in the mountains which is
around 7 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mostly
clear skies and remnant low level moisture will bring a return of
the patchy fog to the valleys again Thursday morning. Ridge
weakens Thursday as trough approaches the area but will still be warm
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures for Thanksgiving afternoon
are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the Valley and mid
40s to low 60s in the mountains.

The weather will turn cooler and wetter Friday into next week as
several storm systems move through the area. Temperatures start to
cool on Friday as the upper level trough nears the coast. High temperatures
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Valley and mid 40s to 50s in
the mountains on Friday and drop in the 50s in the Valley and 30s
and 40s in the mountains on Saturday. Clouds will increase on
Friday with precipitation expected to start moving into the
Coastal range by Friday afternoon. Precipitation will spread
southeast across the area to around the I-80 corridor Friday
evening and farther south into the Northern San Joaquin Valley
Saturday morning. Snow levels are expected to be around 7500 ft
Friday and lower to around 6000 feet Saturday. This will bring
snow down to the Sierra passes this weekend possibly causing
travel delays. A few inches of snow are possible in the Sierra
with around 18 inches possible for the top of Mt. Lassen.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday are expected to be around
a quarter to half an inch in the Central Valley and . Generally
around 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the mountains...mainly north of
I-80. Southerly winds will bring breezy conditions on Saturday also.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

Becoming BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning
fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 262318
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure over the area today bringing above normal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds ahead of the
approaching storm system are moving through the area. Temperatures
this afternoon should peak in the mid to upper 60s in the Central
Valley and foothills and 50s and 60s in the mountains which is
around 7 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mostly
clear skies and remnant low level moisture will bring a return of
the patchy fog to the valleys again Thursday morning. Ridge
weakens Thursday as trough approaches the area but will still be warm
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures for Thanksgiving afternoon
are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the Valley and mid
40s to low 60s in the mountains.

The weather will turn cooler and wetter Friday into next week as
several storm systems move through the area. Temperatures start to
cool on Friday as the upper level trough nears the coast. High temperatures
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Valley and mid 40s to 50s in
the mountains on Friday and drop in the 50s in the Valley and 30s
and 40s in the mountains on Saturday. Clouds will increase on
Friday with precipitation expected to start moving into the
Coastal range by Friday afternoon. Precipitation will spread
southeast across the area to around the I-80 corridor Friday
evening and farther south into the Northern San Joaquin Valley
Saturday morning. Snow levels are expected to be around 7500 ft
Friday and lower to around 6000 feet Saturday. This will bring
snow down to the Sierra passes this weekend possibly causing
travel delays. A few inches of snow are possible in the Sierra
with around 18 inches possible for the top of Mt. Lassen.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday are expected to be around
a quarter to half an inch in the Central Valley and . Generally
around 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the mountains...mainly north of
I-80. Southerly winds will bring breezy conditions on Saturday also.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

Becoming BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning
fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 262318
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure over the area today bringing above normal
temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds ahead of the
approaching storm system are moving through the area. Temperatures
this afternoon should peak in the mid to upper 60s in the Central
Valley and foothills and 50s and 60s in the mountains which is
around 7 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mostly
clear skies and remnant low level moisture will bring a return of
the patchy fog to the valleys again Thursday morning. Ridge
weakens Thursday as trough approaches the area but will still be warm
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures for Thanksgiving afternoon
are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s in the Valley and mid
40s to low 60s in the mountains.

The weather will turn cooler and wetter Friday into next week as
several storm systems move through the area. Temperatures start to
cool on Friday as the upper level trough nears the coast. High temperatures
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Valley and mid 40s to 50s in
the mountains on Friday and drop in the 50s in the Valley and 30s
and 40s in the mountains on Saturday. Clouds will increase on
Friday with precipitation expected to start moving into the
Coastal range by Friday afternoon. Precipitation will spread
southeast across the area to around the I-80 corridor Friday
evening and farther south into the Northern San Joaquin Valley
Saturday morning. Snow levels are expected to be around 7500 ft
Friday and lower to around 6000 feet Saturday. This will bring
snow down to the Sierra passes this weekend possibly causing
travel delays. A few inches of snow are possible in the Sierra
with around 18 inches possible for the top of Mt. Lassen.
Rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday are expected to be around
a quarter to half an inch in the Central Valley and . Generally
around 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the mountains...mainly north of
I-80. Southerly winds will bring breezy conditions on Saturday also.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. The RMOP and the GFS
dprog/dt show a retrogression of the closed low that was to some
extent forecast by earlier runs of the ECMWF. The retrogression of
the upper low has resulted in slower Ewd movement and timing of the
precip for Norcal. Instead of the heaviest QPF expected from Sun
nite into Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the
mass return/exodus of the public...the heaviest QPFs may not occur
until late Mon and/or Tue. This also follows the forecast of the
best period of Water Vapor (WV) transport into Norcal. Thus...the
impacts from the upper low may occur after the holiday period. (This
does not refer to the impacts from the previous (and relatively
weaker) waves bringing precip to our CWA Fri-Sun.)

A high probability of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the
Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with
the highest probabilities in the latter two periods...and a 95%
probability of 2+ inches through Tue. The WPC 7 day QPF indicates
about 7-9 inches over the Siernev...mainly 1-3 inches for the valley
with the highest amounts in the Nrn Sac Vly tapering Swd. These
numbers correlate to a likely 95th probability of precip for the
valley and at least "chance" probability for the higher elevations.
Certainly a "dent" can be made in our precip deficit should this
materialize.

Due to the retrogression/slower timing of the models...Norcal will
be in the WAA zone ahead of the upper low throughout the weekend
with moderately high snow levels. There is a high degree of
uncertainty in the timing and amount of QPF Tue/Wed due to the
slower timing of the ECMWF and the seemingly too progressive GFS.
Thus...later in the EFP is subject to a myriad of changes.   JHM

&&

.Aviation...

Becoming BKN-OVC cirrus tonight and Thu. Patchy early morning
fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central Vly and mtn
valleys/basins mainly from 10z-18z Thu.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 262259
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262259
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262259
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 262259
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES -- GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF TODAY.

ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AS A STRONG (983 MB SURFACE
LOW/538 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB) PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM 1200 MILES TO
THE NW OF SF 650 MILES CONTINUES TO APPROACH OUR AREA WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 650 MILES TO THE WEST NEARS OUR CWA. THIS
WILL REPRESENT THE SWITCH TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE RETURN OF
RAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND BRING THE START OF
THE RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY EVENING...DOWN TO THE SF BAY
METRO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DOWN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS INITIAL PUSH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PLUME OF PW
VALUES UP TO 1.25" THAT WILL TAKE A DIRECT AIM ON OUR CWA. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, ISENTROPIC VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (10-20 KT) AND PVA
ONLY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS PLUS THE COASTAL NORTH BAY.
IN THOSE SPOTS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW AND BRING MORE RAIN TO OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SIMILAR PW VALUES
WITH BETTER PVA PLUS ISENTROPIC FLOW, SO AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER
WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE COMPARED TO THE FIRST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHER VALUES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL SPOTS THAT HAVE A SOUTHWESTERN EXPOSURE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UP TO 3" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GENERALLY 1/2"-1.5" FOR
MOST VALLEY AND URBAN SPOTS. WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT HAS JUST COME IN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON VALUES.
NEWEST CNRFC NUMBERS ARE ALSO A BIT OF A DEPARTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW VALUES. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF DROPPING OUR PRECIP NUMBERS
UNTIL AT LEAST ONE MORE SERIES OF MODELS COMES ACROSS.

AFTER A FAIRLY DRY MONDAY, THE MODELS BRING THE THIRD AND LIKELY
MOST SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVERHEAD. DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THE START AND END TIMES FOR THE RAIN REMAINS A DIFFICULT
CALL. DECISION WAS MADE TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH WHERE
THE BEST PW VALUES WILL BE AIMED. ECMWF WHICH TRACKS A BIT SLOWER
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH HAS THE RAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF SF WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE NORTH BAY. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS DISAGREE IN REGARD TO WIND
CONCERNS WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH WINDIER. DEPENDING ON WHICH
ONE VERIFIES, RAIN WILL END EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AS
GREAT -- IF NOT GREATER -- THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
URBAN SPOTS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1/2"-1.5" WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE 3-6" RANGE. IF THINGS LINE UP JUST RIGHT, SOME OF
THE LOCAL SPOTS IN THE HILLS COULD END UP WITH 7 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NEARLY A FOOT!

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF PIGEON POINT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEA
STATE WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGEST STORM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 262234
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA SNOW
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AND
INTO FRIDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, ALONG WITH
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS PEAKING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AT
THE RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT WE SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOW OF THE
RECORD OF 70 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1946. IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
EARLIER IN THE DAY, WE COULD APPROACH OR EVEN BREAK THE RECORD, BUT
FOR NOW THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA COMBINING WITH LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND
7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
SO WE`VE CONTINUED TO RAISE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO THE "LIKELY" CATEGORY. THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WE EXPECT TO SEE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OF 0.20-0.50" IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHT RAIN
LESS THAN 0.10" IN WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR.

THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE FOR THE SIERRA PASSES ABOVE 7000
FEET WITH POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. ANYONE TRAVELING OVER
THE SIERRA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLICK
WINTER ROAD CONDITIONS. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL PROBABLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIAL RAIN OR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BECOME FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. MAJOR
CHANGES IN SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND HIGH LEVEL OF SPREAD
AMONG ENSEMBLE DATA HAS FURTHER LOWERED CONFIDENCE AS TO WHICH DAYS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE WET NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY TRENDING WETTER, AS
SHORTWAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA, WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS PROJECTED FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NV NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500
TO 7500 FEET, HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POCKET OF COOLER
700 MB TEMPS AROUND -6 C SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL IN THE TAHOE BASIN BEFORE
WARMER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL IS FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD STALLING
THE MAIN LOW OFF THE CA COAST, SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF VERIFY, LITTLE OR NO RAIN OR SNOW WOULD OCCUR OVER THE
REGION, WHICH IS IN SHARP CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT WE DID NOT GO DRASTICALLY LOWER YET BECAUSE OF
THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

DEPENDING ON WHEN THE MAIN LOW FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND WHAT TRACK
IT TAKES, RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS IS
NOT A GUARANTEE, AS SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WEAKEN THIS LOW AND
MOVE IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV, KEEPING THE BEST PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVERHEAD. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASING WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KHNX 262222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO
WISH EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE
YOU THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 262222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PATCHY
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE CLOUDIER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO
COUNTY NORTH. A WINTER STORM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER CENTRAL CA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS YET CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE THE ONLY TRAVEL
WOE DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE...IT
WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRESNO COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS...TOO...
WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BIG WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
GET HERE. IN FACT...THE 12Z MODELS ARE A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. THIS COULD BE DUE
TO A DIGGING 250 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DEEPEN THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW TIME FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS NUDGE THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CA WHICH WILL FINALLY CARRY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST QPF FROM THE MODELS...THE CNRFC AND WPC ALL
SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TIMING SO HAVE AMENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ITS
SLOWER ARRIVAL IS A GOOD THING SINCE IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH FOLKS
TRAVELING HOME FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS ORIGINALLY FEARED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL CA DURING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE LADEN JET WILL GUARANTEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS
DO NOT BRING THE STORM INLAND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. AND SINCE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE OF THIS
STORM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (GENERALLY ABOVE 7500
FEET.) NONETHELESS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ARE
STILL ON TARGET TO RECEIVE UP TO 3 FEET OF FRESH POWDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE WATER THAT THIS STORM BRINGS INTO CENTRAL CA
IS WELL AND GOOD...TOO MUCH OF IT IN A SHORT PERIOD COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN SCAR
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASE VISIT OUR FACEBOOK
AND TWITTER PAGES AND TUNE IN TO YOUR LATEST MEDIA SOURCES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

FINALLY...FOLKS AT THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN HANFORD WOULD LIKE TO
WISH EVERYONE A JOYOUS THANKSGIVING. WHEREVER YOUR TRAVELS TAKE
YOU THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST AND LOCAL
LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z THU AND 17Z THU. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 262135
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY
PROFILE...WITH SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR WARMING FROM THE SURFACE TO 700
MB. THIS WARMER AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL 35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES/CANYONS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THANKSGIVING
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEYS
AND AREAS A COUPLE MILES FROM THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURNING BACK ONSHORE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD START TO SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL START TO FALL TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST ON SUNDAY...AND
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DESERTS. THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON SUNDAY WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.

FOR LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ABLE TO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING
IT UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH CONTINUES INTO LATE TUESDAY. GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DURING THIS WARM PORTION OF THE STORM...SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE 12
GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR...DROPPING SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY NOT TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING INLAND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT 850 MB AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
THE ECMWF REMAINS THE HEAVIEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO BRINGS WET-BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ONLY 8000 FEET...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AS WELL...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WHERE 50 MPH GUSTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE. FINALLY...DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
262100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THANKSGIVING AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOW
TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND THE
MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND DEEPENS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 262135
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY
PROFILE...WITH SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR WARMING FROM THE SURFACE TO 700
MB. THIS WARMER AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL 35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES/CANYONS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THANKSGIVING
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEYS
AND AREAS A COUPLE MILES FROM THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURNING BACK ONSHORE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD START TO SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL START TO FALL TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST ON SUNDAY...AND
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DESERTS. THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON SUNDAY WHICH THE ECMWF INDICATES COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.

FOR LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM ARE NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ABLE TO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING
IT UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH CONTINUES INTO LATE TUESDAY. GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DURING THIS WARM PORTION OF THE STORM...SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT AROUND 9000-11000 FEET. THE 12
GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR...DROPPING SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY NOT TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING INLAND UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2-3
INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...3-4 INCHES OR GREATER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. WITH GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT 850 MB AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MAY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERLY FACING SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
THE ECMWF REMAINS THE HEAVIEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...BUT ALSO BRINGS WET-BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ONLY 8000 FEET...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AS WELL...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WHERE 50 MPH GUSTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE. FINALLY...DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
262100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THANKSGIVING AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOW
TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND THE
MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND DEEPENS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 262123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 262123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 262123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 262123
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ALL SHOW CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. FROM SAN DIEGO TO TUCSON...A 10 DEGREE
WARMING IN THE 600-700MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS DAY HAS TRANSLATED A BIT
LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER DESERTS BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN OUR
RIDGE...CREATING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SWEEP BY ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAKE WAY FOR
A LARGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN FROM ALASKA. BY
MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND LOCATION FOR HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SWING.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM TIMING DOWN QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST
4-5 MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TRACK LOCATION HAS NOT VEERED
MUCH. ELONGATED SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SOME
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR
FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY NEXT TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER MODELS SHOW A
DECENT CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF ARIZONA. AGAIN...TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY JUST YET AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UP IN THE AIR AT THIS
POINT. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS PAINT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN IN TIMING...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD PACIFIC
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN TO ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTIONS FAVORED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO DUE TO SMOKE
FROM A MULCH FIRE NEAR LUKE AFB. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCAL BREEZINESS
NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT...EXPANDING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY
MINOR CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 262047
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH EVEN
SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS RETURNING TO SOME COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A WARM THANKSGIVING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR MOST COAST/VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 90 OR
TWO IN THE VALLEYS. BEACHES WILL SPIKE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOL OFF SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...AND THEN THE FORECAST FUN BEGINS. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY SHOWING AN INITIAL IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN SBA COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH.

AFTER THAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL VARIATIONS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVEN`T REALLY CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS BUT THE TIMING HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL NEAR 100%
CERTAINTY FOR RAIN IN THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BUT NAILING DOWN THE MAIN
12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL HAS BEEN
(AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE) A HUGE CHALLENGE. CERTAINLY THE
SOLUTIONS TODAY FAVOR A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT`S STILL TOO EARLY
TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL SOLUTION. THOUGH CERTAINLY THE
MOMEMTUM TODAY FAVORS LATER.

SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE WEST THEY DO
TEND TO ENTRAIN SOME DEEPER TROPICAL AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY AND PWATS
ARE NOW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUE. SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION. BUT WE`RE STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT A
ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SO
DURATION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN RESULTING RAIN TOTALS, THOUGH
HOURLY RATES COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS IN OUR
BURN AREAS.

WITH THE TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 8000` FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORM. THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE TROF WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 6000 OR 7000 FT BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BY THAT TIME.

IN SUMMARY, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 20-30 POPS IN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED AS
THIS STORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...26/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 261827
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 261827
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1018 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY
27/12Z. WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 27/20Z THEN MIXED
WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1735Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...26/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATUDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE NORTH WINDS WITHIN A N-S ORIENTED FETCH AREA
APPROXIMATELY 900 NM FROM THE CENTRAL COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LOW CENTER WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. SEAS GENERATED IN THE N-S ORIENTED
FETCH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. BUT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN A MORE
LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND BUILD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AREA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KSTO 261752
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
952 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog in the valleys this morning but starting to dissipate
and visibilities improving around 9 am. Mostly sunny skies (with
some mid and high clouds) and above normal temperatures today with
another day under ridge of high pressure. Temperatures this
afternoon are expected to peak in the mid to upper 60s in the
Central Valley and foothills and 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
Increasing clouds for Thanksgiving as a storm system approaches
but temperatures will remain above normal. Patchy fog in the
valleys will also return for Thanksgiving morning.

The weather will turn cooler and wetter Friday into next week as
several storm systems move through the area. Temperatures start to
cool on Friday as the ridge shifts east, with temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s in the Valley and mid 40s to 50s in the mountains.
Precipitation is expected to start moving into the Coastal range
Friday morning and gradually spread southeast across the area to
around the I-80 corridor Friday evening and farther south into the
Northern San Joaquin Valley Saturday morning. Temperatures will
cool to near normal on Saturday with highs in the mid 50s to low
60s in the Valley and mid 30s to 40s in the mountains. Snow levels
are expected to be around 7500 ft Friday and lower to around 6000
feet Saturday. A few inches of snow are possible in the Sierra
with around a foot possible for the top of Mt. Lassen. Rainfall
totals for Friday and Saturday are expected to be around 1.5
inches around Redding to around 0.75 inches around Sacramento and
around a third of an inch in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.
Generally around 1 to 2.5 inches for the mountains...mainly north
of I-80.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Development of a deep, closed upper level low off the CA coast
late this holiday weekend threatens to bring significant
rain/mountain snow to interior NorCal into early next week. The
NCEP GEFS shows a 70% probability of at least 1 inch of mountain
precipitation, and a 40% probability of at least 2 inches. The
GFS/EC/GEM all show warm frontal type precip Sunday with the main
low still west of 130W.

Mid range models have been showing several inches of rain
from Saturday through Monday; however, the amounts/timing could
be in jeopardy as the models have shown signs of diverging. The
GFS and GEM show the low slowly filling and progressing inside
130W on Monday with decent amounts of precipitation. On the other
hand, the EC cuts off the low west of 130W with little movement
eastward until Tuesday. While a multi-day precip event for NorCal
exists, model differences in timing could result in greater,
lesser, or delayed results/impacts. In spite of the EC diverging,
we have kept precipitation amount relatively constant. For now,
the heaviest precip forecast is still expected to occur from
Sunday night through Monday. Significant snow may accompany this
wet period. Light snow accumulation may occur down to 4500-5000 ft
and 5-10 inches of snow may accumulate above 6000 ft with 12-36
inches above 7000 ft. The higher end amounts would likely occur
over Lassen Park and into western Plumas county.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Early morning patch IFR/LIFR fog/stratus conditions in the
Central Valley and mtn valleys/basins. Dewpoints increased from
yesterday, so expect to see more fog. Most will be patchy and
relatively shallow.     JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 261727
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN COOL SOME ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...NOTHING TO REALLY ADD TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW 4-7 DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SIMILAR TRENDS FOR TODAY`S
HIGHS. JUST A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH, OTHERWISE JUST LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE A SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT FRUSTRATION. MODELS
OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND I SUSPECT IT WILL BE AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN. IN THE
MEANTIME, REALLY HAVE NO CHOICE OTHER THAN BROAD BRUSHING FORECAST
WITH WISHY-WASHY POPS AND FEW SPECIFICS. A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF RAIN
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY, BUT IT LITERALLY COULD FALL
ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KSGX 261724
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
924 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY
PROFILE...WITH SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR WARMING FROM THE SURFACE TO 700
MB. THIS WARMER AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL 35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES/CANYONS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. DAY-TIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES...AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL.
THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
THE VALLEYS AND AREAS A COUPLE MILES FROM THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURNING BACK ONSHORE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD START TO SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL START TO FALL TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST ON SUNDAY...AND
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DESERTS.

FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS LIKE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS MOMENT...AS IT STARTS PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS A DAY EARLIER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND MOVES
THE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MUCH QUICKER AS WELL. THE 12Z
GFS IS COMING MORE IN-LINE WITH THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. BOTH MODELS
SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ABLE TO TAP INTO
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING IT UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO LATE TUESDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DURING THIS WARM PORTION
OF THE STORM...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT AROUND
9000-11000 FEET. THE 12 GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...MOST OF
THE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING INLAND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...4 INCHES OR GREATER IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE 12Z GFS
BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS
HEAVIEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALSO BRINGS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ONLY 8000 FEET...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE 50 MPH GUSTS OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FINALLY...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
261540Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE UDDFS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
740 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH
ONLY SILL HILL GUSTING TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
STILL ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WILL LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN
TODAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE WEAK WINDS ARE NOT
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUS...THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THANKSGIVING AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOW
TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND THE
MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND DEEPENS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 261724
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
924 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL AND VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY
PROFILE...WITH SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR WARMING FROM THE SURFACE TO 700
MB. THIS WARMER AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL 35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES/CANYONS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. DAY-TIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES...AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL.
THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
THE VALLEYS AND AREAS A COUPLE MILES FROM THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURNING BACK ONSHORE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD START TO SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AS
WELL...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
FARTHER INTO THE VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL START TO FALL TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST ON SUNDAY...AND
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DESERTS.

FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS LIKE
AN OUTLIER AT THIS MOMENT...AS IT STARTS PRECIP IN OUR AREA ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS A DAY EARLIER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND MOVES
THE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MUCH QUICKER AS WELL. THE 12Z
GFS IS COMING MORE IN-LINE WITH THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. BOTH MODELS
SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ABLE TO TAP INTO
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING IT UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WHICH
CONTINUES INTO LATE TUESDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS 1.3 INCHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DURING THIS WARM PORTION
OF THE STORM...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT AROUND
9000-11000 FEET. THE 12 GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...MOST OF
THE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING INLAND UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...4 INCHES OR GREATER IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE 12Z GFS
BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS
HEAVIEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...BUT
ALSO BRINGS WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ONLY 8000 FEET...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE 50 MPH GUSTS OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FINALLY...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
261540Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE UDDFS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
740 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ONLY GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH
ONLY SILL HILL GUSTING TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
STILL ONLY IN THE TEENS AND WILL LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN
TODAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE WEAK WINDS ARE NOT
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUS...THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THANKSGIVING AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOW
TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEN...ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. COOLING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND THE
MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND DEEPENS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KMTR 261718
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT WORK WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EITHER ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NOT A LOT TO ADD
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, HOWEVER WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT QPF
VALUES FROM WPC ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE SECOND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
(ECMWF SHOWS A 36-48 HOUR BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHILE THE GFS/GEM
SHOW MORE OF A CONTINUAL EVENT). IF THE GFS VERIFIES HYDRO
CONCERNS WOULD BE MUCH MORE ELEVATED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK, THE AMOUNT BEING FORECAST (2-4"
FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH WELL OVER 1/2 A FOOT IN THE HILLS) WILL
PRODUCE SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC VALUES OFF THE GFS (UP TO 60 KT FROM THE SW) COMBINED
WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.3". OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH LESS AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE, HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE SECOND ROUND.

WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC.
UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER BACK EAST WILL CREATE
PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING BY CAR ACROSS
CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH NO PRECIP OR
FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:11 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NORTH OF PIGEON POINT
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261718
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT WORK WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EITHER ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NOT A LOT TO ADD
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, HOWEVER WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT QPF
VALUES FROM WPC ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE SECOND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
(ECMWF SHOWS A 36-48 HOUR BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHILE THE GFS/GEM
SHOW MORE OF A CONTINUAL EVENT). IF THE GFS VERIFIES HYDRO
CONCERNS WOULD BE MUCH MORE ELEVATED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK, THE AMOUNT BEING FORECAST (2-4"
FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH WELL OVER 1/2 A FOOT IN THE HILLS) WILL
PRODUCE SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC VALUES OFF THE GFS (UP TO 60 KT FROM THE SW) COMBINED
WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.3". OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH LESS AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE, HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE SECOND ROUND.

WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC.
UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER BACK EAST WILL CREATE
PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING BY CAR ACROSS
CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH NO PRECIP OR
FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:10 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSTS AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE IN SF BAY...BUT
SLANT WISE VIS SHOULD BE OKAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:11 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NORTH OF PIGEON POINT
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261655
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

...HYDRO CONCERNS LIKELY BY NEXT WORK WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EITHER ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NOT A LOT TO ADD
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, HOWEVER WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT QPF
VALUES FROM WPC ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE SECOND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
(ECMWF SHOWS A 36-48 HOUR BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHILE THE GFS/GEM
SHOW MORE OF A CONTINUAL EVENT). IF THE GFS VERIFIES HYDRO
CONCERNS WOULD BE MUCH MORE ELEVATED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK, THE AMOUNT BEING FORECAST (2-4"
FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH WELL OVER 1/2 A FOOT IN THE HILLS) WILL
PRODUCE SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC VALUES OFF THE GFS (UP TO 60 KT FROM THE SW) COMBINED
WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.3". OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH LESS AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE, HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE SECOND ROUND.

WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE
STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC.
UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION. FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN
FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER BACK EAST WILL CREATE
PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING BY CAR ACROSS
CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH NO PRECIP OR
FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. NO ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 261615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLOWLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ARIZONA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SAW UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS ABOUT PAR FOR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEWPOINT READINGS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTO THE TEENS AND
TWENTY-DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT TODAY TO BE PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WISE
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING SO NO
UPDATES NEEDED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 AM MST 26 NOV/...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH A
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 261615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLOWLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ARIZONA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SAW UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS ABOUT PAR FOR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEWPOINT READINGS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTO THE TEENS AND
TWENTY-DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT TODAY TO BE PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WISE
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING SO NO
UPDATES NEEDED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 AM MST 26 NOV/...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH A
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 261615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLOWLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ARIZONA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SAW UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS ABOUT PAR FOR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEWPOINT READINGS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTO THE TEENS AND
TWENTY-DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT TODAY TO BE PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WISE
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING SO NO
UPDATES NEEDED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 AM MST 26 NOV/...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH A
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 261615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SLOWLY THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ARIZONA HAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SAW UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WHICH IS ABOUT PAR FOR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DEWPOINT READINGS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY INCREASED INTO THE TEENS AND
TWENTY-DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT TODAY TO BE PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WISE
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING SO NO
UPDATES NEEDED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 314 AM MST 26 NOV/...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH A
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 261245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
445 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO NORTHWESTERN CA TODAY. INLAND VALLEYS
ARE SEEING SOME THICK FOG THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...FIVE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA ONCE IT MOVES
ONSHORE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAINFALL STARTING IN THE MORNING ON THURSDAY IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY
AND MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. RAPID RIVERS
RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SMITH RIVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS FRONT...6000 TO 7000 FT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING THIS FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT IN GENERAL AMOUNT
LOOK TO BE MODERATE...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CENTERS IT OVER
MENDOCINO COUNTY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
SF BAY AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THIS IS ABOUT
WHERE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES TO AN END. THE 00Z ECMWF
HAS STARTED TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT ONSHORE
ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS MUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS IS ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
TRYING TO CUT OFF LIKE THE ECMWF...ALBEIT STILL MOVING IT THROUGH
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW STARTING ON MONDAY WITH
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE TENDENCY FOR
MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS VALLEY
FOG DISSIPATES AND POCKETS OF CLOUDS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST ERODE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILING AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE
MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AS A RESULT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MARINE ZONE 470 BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE WEAKER BUT SHOULD STILL
FLUCTUATE NEAR 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SW-W SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY CAUSING THE SEA STATE TO RISE TO AROUND
10 T0 13 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR MARINE ZONE 475
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BUILDING SEA STATE. I HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT
THEY MAY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE SWELL FOR TIMING
OF ANY SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
THUS LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE LATE IN THE FORECAST. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 261243
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. NO ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261243
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. NO ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261243
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. NO ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 261243
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
443 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PST WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. NO ISSUES EXCEPT FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 261200
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mainly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning as only a few high clouds are managing to spill through
the ridge. Early morning temperatures are pretty similar to
readings of 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the colder
mountain valleys to the upper 30s to mid 40s in the Central Valley
with 50s in the thermal belts. Patchy valley fog will also be
possible through mid-morning.

Strong ridging will maintain dry and mild weather for the region
through Thanksgiving. We`ll begin to see more high clouds on
Thanksgiving as the ridge axis shifts east into the Great Basin.

Precipitation chances will gradually spread south on Friday (but
will likely remain north of I-80) as deeper moisture (TPW over an
inch) moves up from the southwest and warm advection increases.
Frontal system is forecast to push southward into the northern San
Joaquin Valley Saturday as the upper jet shifts south. The higher
elevations of the northern Sierra may begin to see a little
accumulating snow.

More significant potential impacts will hold off until late in the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Development of a deep, closed upper level low off the CA coast
late this holiday weekend threatens to bring significant
rain/mountain snow to interior NorCal into early next week. The
NCEP GEFS shows a 70% probability of at least 1 inch of mountain
precipitation, and a 40% probability of at least 2 inches. The
GFS/EC/GEM all show warm frontal type precip Sunday with the main
low still west of 130W.

Mid range models have been showing several inches of rain
from Saturday through Monday; however, the amounts/timing could
be in jeopardy as the models have shown signs of diverging. The
GFS and GEM show the low slowly filling and progressing inside
130W on Monday with decent amounts of precipitation. On the other
hand, the EC cuts off the low west of 130W with little movement
eastward until Tuesday. While a multi-day precip event for NorCal
exists, model differences in timing could result in greater,
lesser, or delayed results/impacts. In spite of the EC diverging,
we have kept precipitation amount relatively constant. For now,
the heaviest precip forecast is still expected to occur from
Sunday night through Monday. Significant snow may accompany this
wet period. Light snow accumulation may occur down to 4500-5000 ft
and 5-10 inches of snow may accumulate above 6000 ft with 12-36
inches above 7000 ft. The higher end amounts would likely occur
over Lassen Park and into western Plumas county. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Early morning patch IFR/LIFR fog/stratus conditions in the
Central Valley and mtn valleys/basins. Dewpoints increased from
yesterday, so expect to see more fog. Most will be patchy and
relatively shallow. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 261200
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mainly clear skies across the interior of NorCal early this
morning as only a few high clouds are managing to spill through
the ridge. Early morning temperatures are pretty similar to
readings of 24 hours ago and range from the 20s in the colder
mountain valleys to the upper 30s to mid 40s in the Central Valley
with 50s in the thermal belts. Patchy valley fog will also be
possible through mid-morning.

Strong ridging will maintain dry and mild weather for the region
through Thanksgiving. We`ll begin to see more high clouds on
Thanksgiving as the ridge axis shifts east into the Great Basin.

Precipitation chances will gradually spread south on Friday (but
will likely remain north of I-80) as deeper moisture (TPW over an
inch) moves up from the southwest and warm advection increases.
Frontal system is forecast to push southward into the northern San
Joaquin Valley Saturday as the upper jet shifts south. The higher
elevations of the northern Sierra may begin to see a little
accumulating snow.

More significant potential impacts will hold off until late in the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Development of a deep, closed upper level low off the CA coast
late this holiday weekend threatens to bring significant
rain/mountain snow to interior NorCal into early next week. The
NCEP GEFS shows a 70% probability of at least 1 inch of mountain
precipitation, and a 40% probability of at least 2 inches. The
GFS/EC/GEM all show warm frontal type precip Sunday with the main
low still west of 130W.

Mid range models have been showing several inches of rain
from Saturday through Monday; however, the amounts/timing could
be in jeopardy as the models have shown signs of diverging. The
GFS and GEM show the low slowly filling and progressing inside
130W on Monday with decent amounts of precipitation. On the other
hand, the EC cuts off the low west of 130W with little movement
eastward until Tuesday. While a multi-day precip event for NorCal
exists, model differences in timing could result in greater,
lesser, or delayed results/impacts. In spite of the EC diverging,
we have kept precipitation amount relatively constant. For now,
the heaviest precip forecast is still expected to occur from
Sunday night through Monday. Significant snow may accompany this
wet period. Light snow accumulation may occur down to 4500-5000 ft
and 5-10 inches of snow may accumulate above 6000 ft with 12-36
inches above 7000 ft. The higher end amounts would likely occur
over Lassen Park and into western Plumas county. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Early morning patch IFR/LIFR fog/stratus conditions in the
Central Valley and mtn valleys/basins. Dewpoints increased from
yesterday, so expect to see more fog. Most will be patchy and
relatively shallow. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSGX 261151
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOR. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS TODAY...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
VALLEYS...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND 12 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE NEAR 90. FOR SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE DESERTS AND 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS. THE TREND OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED. THE
06Z GFS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 13-KM PARALLEL SOON TO BE
OPERATIONAL RUN OFFER A REASONABLE FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE GEM SIMILAR. THIS IS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH LARGELY DRY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

BASED ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE 06Z GFS....SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WOULD BE LARGELY DRY...BUT A WEAK LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE 06Z GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO NEARLY
1.5 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS SAN DIEGO...AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH AT THE
COAST TO 5+ INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY 35 MPH OR LESS. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES TODAY OF 5
TO 10 PERCENT. WEAKER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 261151
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOR. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS TODAY...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
VALLEYS...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND 12 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE NEAR 90. FOR SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE DESERTS AND 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS. THE TREND OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED. THE
06Z GFS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 13-KM PARALLEL SOON TO BE
OPERATIONAL RUN OFFER A REASONABLE FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE GEM SIMILAR. THIS IS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH LARGELY DRY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

BASED ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE 06Z GFS....SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WOULD BE LARGELY DRY...BUT A WEAK LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE 06Z GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO NEARLY
1.5 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS SAN DIEGO...AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH AT THE
COAST TO 5+ INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY 35 MPH OR LESS. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES TODAY OF 5
TO 10 PERCENT. WEAKER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 261151
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOR. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS TODAY...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
VALLEYS...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND 12 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE NEAR 90. FOR SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE DESERTS AND 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS. THE TREND OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED. THE
06Z GFS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 13-KM PARALLEL SOON TO BE
OPERATIONAL RUN OFFER A REASONABLE FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE GEM SIMILAR. THIS IS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH LARGELY DRY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

BASED ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE 06Z GFS....SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WOULD BE LARGELY DRY...BUT A WEAK LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE 06Z GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO NEARLY
1.5 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS SAN DIEGO...AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH AT THE
COAST TO 5+ INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY 35 MPH OR LESS. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES TODAY OF 5
TO 10 PERCENT. WEAKER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 261151
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOR. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS TODAY...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH.
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR INLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
VALLEYS...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND 12 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE NEAR 90. FOR SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE DESERTS AND 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS. THE TREND OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED. THE
06Z GFS...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 13-KM PARALLEL SOON TO BE
OPERATIONAL RUN OFFER A REASONABLE FORECAST GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE GEM SIMILAR. THIS IS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE
SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.

A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH LARGELY DRY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

BASED ON THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE 06Z GFS....SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WOULD BE LARGELY DRY...BUT A WEAK LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED WITH THE 06Z GFS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO NEARLY
1.5 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS SAN DIEGO...AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH AT THE
COAST TO 5+ INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WILL PRODUCE UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND
ISOLATED LLWS THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAINLY 35 MPH OR LESS. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES TODAY OF 5
TO 10 PERCENT. WEAKER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS65 KPSR 261137 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
437 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE SAME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH A
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. STILL NEED TO
WORK OUT THE TIMING DETAILS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS66 KHNX 261130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...FOG WILL FORM IN THE SAME
RELATIVE LOCATIONS AROUND HANFORD AND JUST WEST OF FRESNO...MADERA
AND MERCED. NO INFLUX OF NEW MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FOG COVERAGE
TO VERY PATCHY AMOUNTS AND MAKING DRIVING TRICKY. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF DENSE FOG HAS THE ABILITY OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN A
SUDDEN MANNER AS VALUES DROP FROM 10 MILES TO NEAR ZERO IN A
MATTER OF SECONDS.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A STORM...CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST
OF PORTLAND...DROP TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES...SHOW THE PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING AND
PUSHING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AS A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH SHORT RANGE AND LONGER RANGE
MODELS IS AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SATURDAY WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY FOR EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA
WITH A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH COULD EQUATE IN A FOOT OR MORE NEW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...
THIS SAME STORM ALSO SHOWS SOME RAIN SHADOWING ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY SUPPORTED
HIGHER TERRAIN. YET...THE FIRST SERIES OF STORMS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO POSSIBLY A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAT MAY MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE CERTAINTY IS LOW BASED ON GFS MOD-TREND
ANALYSIS...IT ALSO SHOWS A POSITIVE SIGNAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH COULD MEAN THAT THE STORM IS DEEPENING WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...THIS SIGNAL COULD TRANSLATE IN BETTER PRECIP
EFFICIENCIES TO OVERCOME THE RAIN SHADOW AND GIVE THE CENTRAL
VALLEY MORE THAN JUST A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL LIFR 12Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF
CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 261130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...FOG WILL FORM IN THE SAME
RELATIVE LOCATIONS AROUND HANFORD AND JUST WEST OF FRESNO...MADERA
AND MERCED. NO INFLUX OF NEW MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FOG COVERAGE
TO VERY PATCHY AMOUNTS AND MAKING DRIVING TRICKY. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF DENSE FOG HAS THE ABILITY OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN A
SUDDEN MANNER AS VALUES DROP FROM 10 MILES TO NEAR ZERO IN A
MATTER OF SECONDS.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A STORM...CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST
OF PORTLAND...DROP TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES...SHOW THE PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING AND
PUSHING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AS A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH SHORT RANGE AND LONGER RANGE
MODELS IS AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SATURDAY WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY FOR EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA
WITH A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH COULD EQUATE IN A FOOT OR MORE NEW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...
THIS SAME STORM ALSO SHOWS SOME RAIN SHADOWING ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY SUPPORTED
HIGHER TERRAIN. YET...THE FIRST SERIES OF STORMS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO POSSIBLY A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAT MAY MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE CERTAINTY IS LOW BASED ON GFS MOD-TREND
ANALYSIS...IT ALSO SHOWS A POSITIVE SIGNAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH COULD MEAN THAT THE STORM IS DEEPENING WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...THIS SIGNAL COULD TRANSLATE IN BETTER PRECIP
EFFICIENCIES TO OVERCOME THE RAIN SHADOW AND GIVE THE CENTRAL
VALLEY MORE THAN JUST A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL LIFR 12Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF
CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 261130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...FOG WILL FORM IN THE SAME
RELATIVE LOCATIONS AROUND HANFORD AND JUST WEST OF FRESNO...MADERA
AND MERCED. NO INFLUX OF NEW MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FOG COVERAGE
TO VERY PATCHY AMOUNTS AND MAKING DRIVING TRICKY. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF DENSE FOG HAS THE ABILITY OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN A
SUDDEN MANNER AS VALUES DROP FROM 10 MILES TO NEAR ZERO IN A
MATTER OF SECONDS.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A STORM...CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST
OF PORTLAND...DROP TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES...SHOW THE PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING AND
PUSHING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AS A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH SHORT RANGE AND LONGER RANGE
MODELS IS AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SATURDAY WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY FOR EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA
WITH A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH COULD EQUATE IN A FOOT OR MORE NEW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...
THIS SAME STORM ALSO SHOWS SOME RAIN SHADOWING ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY SUPPORTED
HIGHER TERRAIN. YET...THE FIRST SERIES OF STORMS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO POSSIBLY A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAT MAY MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE CERTAINTY IS LOW BASED ON GFS MOD-TREND
ANALYSIS...IT ALSO SHOWS A POSITIVE SIGNAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH COULD MEAN THAT THE STORM IS DEEPENING WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...THIS SIGNAL COULD TRANSLATE IN BETTER PRECIP
EFFICIENCIES TO OVERCOME THE RAIN SHADOW AND GIVE THE CENTRAL
VALLEY MORE THAN JUST A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL LIFR 12Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF
CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 261130
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...FOG WILL FORM IN THE SAME
RELATIVE LOCATIONS AROUND HANFORD AND JUST WEST OF FRESNO...MADERA
AND MERCED. NO INFLUX OF NEW MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FOG COVERAGE
TO VERY PATCHY AMOUNTS AND MAKING DRIVING TRICKY. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF DENSE FOG HAS THE ABILITY OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN A
SUDDEN MANNER AS VALUES DROP FROM 10 MILES TO NEAR ZERO IN A
MATTER OF SECONDS.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A STORM...CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST
OF PORTLAND...DROP TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THAT WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES...SHOW THE PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING AND
PUSHING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AS A SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BEGIN
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH SHORT RANGE AND LONGER RANGE
MODELS IS AROUND SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY. WHILE SATURDAY WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY FOR EVEN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL IMPACT CALIFORNIA
WITH A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH COULD EQUATE IN A FOOT OR MORE NEW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...
THIS SAME STORM ALSO SHOWS SOME RAIN SHADOWING ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY SUPPORTED
HIGHER TERRAIN. YET...THE FIRST SERIES OF STORMS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO POSSIBLY A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAT MAY MOVE IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE CERTAINTY IS LOW BASED ON GFS MOD-TREND
ANALYSIS...IT ALSO SHOWS A POSITIVE SIGNAL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH COULD MEAN THAT THE STORM IS DEEPENING WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...THIS SIGNAL COULD TRANSLATE IN BETTER PRECIP
EFFICIENCIES TO OVERCOME THE RAIN SHADOW AND GIVE THE CENTRAL
VALLEY MORE THAN JUST A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL LIFR 12Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE
COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF
CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948
KFAT 11-28       76:1891     46:1972     52:1966     28:1969

KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
KBFL 11-28       82:1993     46:2000     55:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 261130
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA
SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THE RIDGE HAS REALLY
CRUNCHED INVERSIONS DOWN THIS MORNING. FOR INSTANCE, FOOTHILL
(BETWEEN 5500 AND 7500 FEET) TEMPERATURES AROUND THE RENO-TAHOE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE
VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY, THE INVERSIONS SHOULD PROMOTE THE
CONTINUED TRAPPING OF POLLUTANTS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEVADA.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS FAR AS
INVERSIONS, WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER
RENO SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700
MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR TO MIX IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS FOR AN EASING OF POLLUTANT CONCERNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SQUEEZES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH
A NARROW MOISTURE BAND (AROUND AN INCH PWAT OVER NORTHERN CA) INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE. TRAVEL IMPACTS
EAST OF THE CREST FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK MINIMAL WITH THE BAND AS SNOW
LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAIN NEAR 6,500 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS AND
NARY A COLD FRONT IN SIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING AS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
DRAMATICALLY SHIFTED WEST WITH MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
MON-TUE. IT BRINGS A MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV SAT-SUN AS FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS HELD MORE PERSISTENT
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN MODELS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS
MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NV AND LIGHTER QPF FOR THE
SIERRA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN PROGRESSES TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WHILE THE GFS IS MAINTAINING
PERSISTENCE, ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH HAVE SHOWN QUITE A VARIABILITY ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS COULD LEND SOME
CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TIMING OF TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z GFS IS YET
SLOWER. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THE MAIN SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS UNTIL TUE-WED WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN. WE BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NV FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A NOD TO THE ECMWF AND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. WE ALSO BEGAN TO
INDICATE A SLOWED TIMING OF THE MAIN TROUGH BY LOWERING POPS
ACROSS WESTERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES MON-TUE
GIVEN THE INCREASING VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS, BUT ADDITIONAL
SLOWING IS POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF AREA.

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 261130
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA
SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WARMING UNDER THE RIDGE HAS REALLY
CRUNCHED INVERSIONS DOWN THIS MORNING. FOR INSTANCE, FOOTHILL
(BETWEEN 5500 AND 7500 FEET) TEMPERATURES AROUND THE RENO-TAHOE
AREA ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE
VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY, THE INVERSIONS SHOULD PROMOTE THE
CONTINUED TRAPPING OF POLLUTANTS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NEVADA.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS FAR AS
INVERSIONS, WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER
RENO SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700
MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AIR TO MIX IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS FOR AN EASING OF POLLUTANT CONCERNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SQUEEZES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH
A NARROW MOISTURE BAND (AROUND AN INCH PWAT OVER NORTHERN CA) INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE. TRAVEL IMPACTS
EAST OF THE CREST FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK MINIMAL WITH THE BAND AS SNOW
LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAIN NEAR 6,500 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS AND
NARY A COLD FRONT IN SIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING AS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
DRAMATICALLY SHIFTED WEST WITH MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
MON-TUE. IT BRINGS A MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV SAT-SUN AS FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS HELD MORE PERSISTENT
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN MODELS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS
MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NV AND LIGHTER QPF FOR THE
SIERRA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN PROGRESSES TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WHILE THE GFS IS MAINTAINING
PERSISTENCE, ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH HAVE SHOWN QUITE A VARIABILITY ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS COULD LEND SOME
CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TIMING OF TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z GFS IS YET
SLOWER. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THE MAIN SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS UNTIL TUE-WED WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN. WE BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NV FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A NOD TO THE ECMWF AND THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. WE ALSO BEGAN TO
INDICATE A SLOWED TIMING OF THE MAIN TROUGH BY LOWERING POPS
ACROSS WESTERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES MON-TUE
GIVEN THE INCREASING VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS, BUT ADDITIONAL
SLOWING IS POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF AREA.

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KMTR 261123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT KSTS MAY SEE FOG EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 261123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT KSTS MAY SEE FOG EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 261123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT KSTS MAY SEE FOG EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 261123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. BY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN
OCCUR SOMETIME MONDAY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING
TREND RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:23 AM PST WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG BEING REPORTED AT SANTA ROSA AND
CONCORD. TEMPERATURES AND DEW-POINTS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHILE WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO WMC AND SFO TO SAC. UPSHOT IS ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN
STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE BAY
AREA WITH 70S FOR THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.
FOR ONCE KSFO WONT BE CONTRIBUTING TO AIRPORT DELAYS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH NO CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TODAY. HOWEVER WEATHER
BACK EAST WILL CREATE PLENTY OF AIR TRAVEL DELAYS. THOSE TRAVELING
BY CAR ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER NO WEATHER DELAYS WITH
NO PRECIP OR FOG TO WORRY ABOUT.

THANKSGIVING WEATHER LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN
CONTROL. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT HIGHS STILL COMFORTABLY IN THE 60S BAY AREA
AND SOME 70S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE STILL FOCUSED ON
THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED IN TERMS OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
VARIOUS FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC. TO CUT TO THE CHASE THE BIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN THE 00Z ECMWF DRAMATICALLY SLOWING
THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS AN
OUTLIER BUT THE GEM AND GFS MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLOWER.

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THEN ON SATURDAY THAT BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. IT WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION RAIN THAT HAS ORIGINS TO A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TRACING ALL THE WAY
TOWARDS HAWAII. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES GET POINTED INTO
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY IN A NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SET-UP. FOR THOSE FOLLOWING ALONG AT HOME ITS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OUT NEAR 35N/138W THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET POINTED
PERPENDICULAR TO OUR COASTAL RANGES. ITS CONCEIVABLE THAT IT MAY
END UP OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PRETTY DISPARATE
RAIN TOTALS WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD
FALL IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE
BAY AREA VALLEYS.

THAT BOUNDARY WILL KIND OF WASH OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW WELL OFFSHORE STARTS TO DIG. THE END
RESULT SHOULD BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE DISTRICT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH NO STRONG DYNAMICS OR
FORCING NOT SEEING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY...FURTHERMORE THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH CAN SHUT DOWN OROGRAPHICS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY IS WHEN THE WORST WEATHER WOULD OCCUR AS THE PARENT
LOW AND SURFACE FRONT MOVED ONSHORE. THAT TIMING COULD HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY BAD FOR RETURN TRAVEL OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
00Z ECMWF CAME IN AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT WITH A SHARPLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAT SLOWED THE PARENT LOW BY 24-48 HOURS...NOT BRINGING
THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE UNTIL WEDS MORNING! THAT SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BUT THE GEM AND GFS HAVE CLEARLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
MAIN FRONT AS WELL. ONCE AGAIN WILL WANT TO SEE THE 12Z CYCLE TO
SEE IF THE ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER OR TREND SETTER. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH THE 06Z GFS HAS THE WETTEST CONDITIONS FROM 18Z MONDAY TO
00Z TUESDAY. SO INSTEAD OF IMPACTING SUNDAY NIGHT ITS NOW MORE
INTO THE MONDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

SO WILL EXPECT THE TIMING TO KEEP BEING ALTERED. GOOD NEWS IS RAIN
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER ITS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CUTS THE SYSTEM OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET SOMEWHAT. COMPLICATING FACTORS MORE IS THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE A TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MODELS HAD BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS SO THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF A KINK IN
THE PLAN AND JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN TH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL DETAILS GET SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT KSTS MAY SEE FOG EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 261120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 261120
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
THREE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS IN A ROW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 590 DM HGTS AND THEN
SLOWLY FADE THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY KIND OF
REAL CANYON WINDS. THREE DAYS IN ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 12 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH RELAXES AND HGTS FALL (MORE COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH A BETTER SEA BREEZE) BETTER COOLING FRIDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW FINALLY RETURNS BUT STILL MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL CONSPIRE TO BRING BACK MARINE
LAYER STRATUS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH NEW NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE
LESS THAN IN CURRENT FCST. LOWER HGTS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO NOSE DIVE WITH THE COAST AND VLYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

WOULD LOVE TO REPORT THAT THE LONG RANGE MDLS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE CASE. EC TOOK A TURN FOR THE
WEIRD AND DELAYS THE STORM TO TUESDAY. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER
TOO. SO RIGHT NOW FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITS TO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR
IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY
NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST
INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT. FOR NOW JUST
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY WILL BE WET.
BOTH EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN
JUST NO IDEA WHEN.

SKIES WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS SUN TO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 0915Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAS WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 23 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...26/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 261014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 261014
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL START OF THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A DECENT
WARM UP AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING
588DM. MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BREAK 80
DEGREES...BUT WILL STILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PACIFIC
STORM PATTERN. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE DELAYING THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN WHICH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUNS HAVE PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IN A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TAPPING INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...BUT
SHIFTED TIMING BACK 12-24 HOURS TO MAINLY FOCUS ON NEXT TUESDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM TRACK...BUT STILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS66 KMTR 260554
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
954 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:59 PM PST TUESDAY...MILD WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MAINTAINS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TRAVELERS HEADED OUT OF TOWN WILL ENJOY PLEASANT DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN OR FOG EXPECTED OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM
SAGS SOUTHWARD. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SATURDAY HOWEVER
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE BAY AREA SATURDAY THEN PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST. WHILE THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING WELL DESERVED RAIN TO THE
REGION MAINLY NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS...A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DELIVER THE
KNOCK OUT PUNCH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY INTENSITY TO THE REGION. ALONG
WITH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

TRAVELERS RETURNING HOME OVER THE WEEKEND NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ESPECIALLY THOSE RETURNING HOME SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THEY MAY ENCOUNTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE
REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST DEPICTS 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN AREAS
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:54 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD EXCEPT KSTS MAY SEE FOG EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260540
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0540Z

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260540
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0540Z

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION AT KLAX.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSTO 260506
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
906 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridge will remain in place for Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm slightly for most locations over today.
Overnight dew points are up by several degrees so a few patches of
fog will be possible for the late night and early morning hours
over the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin Valley and
delta region.

For Wednesday night and Thursday morning the dew points should
come up a little but there should be a lot of high clouds that
could help to prevent a lot of fog from forming but patchy still
looks possible. For Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will
begin to break down and shift eastward. Some precipitation will be
possible over the far northwestern part of the state.

On Friday there are timing differences but models do agree on
bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern part
of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the far
north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early during
the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow levels
will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday daytime
but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday night to
impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south the models
are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening hours to
late at night or early Saturday morning for the far southern
sections of the CWA.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability (60-70% chance)
of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co
area and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the
highest probabilities in the latter two periods. Last nite`s GFS
shows a more substantial TPW plume to work with than the GEFS
ensemble and we are leaning wetter in the EFP due to the slower
timing and multi-day precip event.
Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 260506
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
906 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridge will remain in place for Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm slightly for most locations over today.
Overnight dew points are up by several degrees so a few patches of
fog will be possible for the late night and early morning hours
over the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin Valley and
delta region.

For Wednesday night and Thursday morning the dew points should
come up a little but there should be a lot of high clouds that
could help to prevent a lot of fog from forming but patchy still
looks possible. For Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will
begin to break down and shift eastward. Some precipitation will be
possible over the far northwestern part of the state.

On Friday there are timing differences but models do agree on
bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern part
of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the far
north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early during
the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow levels
will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday daytime
but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday night to
impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south the models
are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening hours to
late at night or early Saturday morning for the far southern
sections of the CWA.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability (60-70% chance)
of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co
area and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the
highest probabilities in the latter two periods. Last nite`s GFS
shows a more substantial TPW plume to work with than the GEFS
ensemble and we are leaning wetter in the EFP due to the slower
timing and multi-day precip event.
Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 260506
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
906 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridge will remain in place for Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm slightly for most locations over today.
Overnight dew points are up by several degrees so a few patches of
fog will be possible for the late night and early morning hours
over the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin Valley and
delta region.

For Wednesday night and Thursday morning the dew points should
come up a little but there should be a lot of high clouds that
could help to prevent a lot of fog from forming but patchy still
looks possible. For Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will
begin to break down and shift eastward. Some precipitation will be
possible over the far northwestern part of the state.

On Friday there are timing differences but models do agree on
bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern part
of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the far
north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early during
the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow levels
will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday daytime
but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday night to
impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south the models
are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening hours to
late at night or early Saturday morning for the far southern
sections of the CWA.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability (60-70% chance)
of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co
area and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the
highest probabilities in the latter two periods. Last nite`s GFS
shows a more substantial TPW plume to work with than the GEFS
ensemble and we are leaning wetter in the EFP due to the slower
timing and multi-day precip event.
Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 260506
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
906 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridge will remain in place for Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm slightly for most locations over today.
Overnight dew points are up by several degrees so a few patches of
fog will be possible for the late night and early morning hours
over the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin Valley and
delta region.

For Wednesday night and Thursday morning the dew points should
come up a little but there should be a lot of high clouds that
could help to prevent a lot of fog from forming but patchy still
looks possible. For Thanksgiving the high pressure ridge will
begin to break down and shift eastward. Some precipitation will be
possible over the far northwestern part of the state.

On Friday there are timing differences but models do agree on
bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern part
of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the far
north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early during
the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley. Snow levels
will be high for the onset of precipitation through Friday daytime
but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels Friday night to
impact travel with snow. For Sacramento area and south the models
are pointing towards the start of rain from the evening hours to
late at night or early Saturday morning for the far southern
sections of the CWA.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability (60-70% chance)
of an inch or more of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co
area and Siernev for the Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the
highest probabilities in the latter two periods. Last nite`s GFS
shows a more substantial TPW plume to work with than the GEFS
ensemble and we are leaning wetter in the EFP due to the slower
timing and multi-day precip event.
Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 260500
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:59 PM PST TUESDAY...MILD WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MAINTAINS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TRAVELERS HEADED OUT OF TOWN WILL ENJOY PLEASANT DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN OR FOG EXPECTED OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM
SAGS SOUTHWARD. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SATURDAY HOWEVER
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE BAY AREA SATURDAY THEN PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST. WHILE THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING WELL DESERVED RAIN TO THE
REGION MAINLY NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS...A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DELIVER THE
KNOCK OUT PUNCH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY INTENSITY TO THE REGION. ALONG
WITH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

TRAVELERS RETURNING HOME OVER THE WEEKEND NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ESPECIALLY THOSE RETURNING HOME SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THEY MAY ENCOUNTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE
REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST DEPICTS 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN AREAS
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:29 PM PST TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE`S PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AS WELL AS VFR FOR THE PERIOD...ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME COOLING INDUCED FOG AT KSTS EARLY
WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 260500
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:59 PM PST TUESDAY...MILD WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MAINTAINS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TRAVELERS HEADED OUT OF TOWN WILL ENJOY PLEASANT DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN OR FOG EXPECTED OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM
SAGS SOUTHWARD. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SATURDAY HOWEVER
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE BAY AREA SATURDAY THEN PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDING IN ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE CENTRAL
COAST. WHILE THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING WELL DESERVED RAIN TO THE
REGION MAINLY NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS...A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DELIVER THE
KNOCK OUT PUNCH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY INTENSITY TO THE REGION. ALONG
WITH RAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

TRAVELERS RETURNING HOME OVER THE WEEKEND NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ESPECIALLY THOSE RETURNING HOME SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THEY MAY ENCOUNTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE
REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST DEPICTS 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN AREAS
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:29 PM PST TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE`S PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AS WELL AS VFR FOR THE PERIOD...ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME COOLING INDUCED FOG AT KSTS EARLY
WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 260459
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARM
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A PACIFIC STORM IS PROJECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DROP OFF IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PEAK
GUSTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S AT 8 PM. THERE WILL BE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN WIND GUSTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 35-45 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ONLY THE ONSET OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 70S AT THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH NO HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR BEACHES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PROGRESSIVELY GREATER INLAND COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK: A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY. MODELS VARY AS TO ITS STRENGTH,
POSITION AND THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL GENERATE. THE 00Z
GFS HAS SCALED BACK ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN SO-CAL AND HAS ALSO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE RAIN TO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND SHOWS PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AND
GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL WINDOW IN A FEW DAYS.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY MAP SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIP OVER CALIFORNIA FROM DEC 01-05.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/610DAY/610PRCP.NEW.GIF

&&

.AVIATION...
260500Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCAL SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT WILL
OCCUR THROUGH/BELOW PASSES/CANYONS AND IN COASTAL
FOOTHILLS...MAINLY 08Z-21Z WED WITH UP/DOWNDRAFTS. THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF LLWS AT TIMES...LIKELY IMPACTING KSNA AND KONT IN THE
09Z-18Z WED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.  THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL
BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 260459
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARM
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EARLY
NEXT WEEK A PACIFIC STORM IS PROJECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DROP OFF IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH PEAK
GUSTS ONLY IN THE MID 20S AT 8 PM. THERE WILL BE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN WIND GUSTS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 35-45 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ONLY THE ONSET OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 70S AT THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH NO HINT OF ANY MARINE LAYER CLOUDS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR BEACHES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PROGRESSIVELY GREATER INLAND COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK: A PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY. MODELS VARY AS TO ITS STRENGTH,
POSITION AND THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL GENERATE. THE 00Z
GFS HAS SCALED BACK ON THE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN SO-CAL AND HAS ALSO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE RAIN TO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND SHOWS PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AND
GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL WINDOW IN A FEW DAYS.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY MAP SHOWS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIP OVER CALIFORNIA FROM DEC 01-05.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/610DAY/610PRCP.NEW.GIF

&&

.AVIATION...
260500Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCAL SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT WILL
OCCUR THROUGH/BELOW PASSES/CANYONS AND IN COASTAL
FOOTHILLS...MAINLY 08Z-21Z WED WITH UP/DOWNDRAFTS. THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF LLWS AT TIMES...LIKELY IMPACTING KSNA AND KONT IN THE
09Z-18Z WED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.  THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL
BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260417
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL
SOME ON FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N TO NE WINDS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA/VTU/L.A.
COUNTY MTNS...SBA S COAST...SANTA MONICA MTNS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
SANTA CLARITA VLY. SOME OF THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND BREEZY VLYS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 60S.
THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED CSTL VLYS SUCH AS THE OJAI VLY WILL TURN
QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VLY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE S THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH BROAD WSW WINDS OVER SRN CA. WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU FRI...ALTHO THERE MAY
BE A FEW HI CLOUDS AT TIMES THANKSGIVING DAY THRU FRI. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WED AND THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY
AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPS EACH DAY MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS. FOR FRI...WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
AREAS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA
MONICA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MAINLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE WEST SWELL IS FORECAST BY THE WAVE MODELS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY REMAIN AT SCA LEVEL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 260327
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WAS BUILDING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA REGION THIS
EVENING PER WV IMAGERY. CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST HAD
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND ONLY MADE MINOR 1F-3F HOURLY AND FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 ABOVE THE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGET OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO PINAL COUNTY. FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED MOS VALUES...WHICH
TRADITIONALLY DOES QUITE WELL IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. ECMWF HAS BEEN A
TOP PERFORMER RECENTLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND THE FORECAST HIGH IN
PHOENIX WAS RAISED TO 82 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING...A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1950.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID
WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET
WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 260327
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WAS BUILDING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA REGION THIS
EVENING PER WV IMAGERY. CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST HAD
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND ONLY MADE MINOR 1F-3F HOURLY AND FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 ABOVE THE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGET OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO PINAL COUNTY. FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED MOS VALUES...WHICH
TRADITIONALLY DOES QUITE WELL IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. ECMWF HAS BEEN A
TOP PERFORMER RECENTLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND THE FORECAST HIGH IN
PHOENIX WAS RAISED TO 82 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING...A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1950.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID
WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET
WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 260327
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WAS BUILDING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA REGION THIS
EVENING PER WV IMAGERY. CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST HAD
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND ONLY MADE MINOR 1F-3F HOURLY AND FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 ABOVE THE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGET OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO PINAL COUNTY. FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED MOS VALUES...WHICH
TRADITIONALLY DOES QUITE WELL IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. ECMWF HAS BEEN A
TOP PERFORMER RECENTLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND THE FORECAST HIGH IN
PHOENIX WAS RAISED TO 82 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING...A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1950.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID
WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET
WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 260327
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGING WAS BUILDING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA REGION THIS
EVENING PER WV IMAGERY. CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST HAD
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND ONLY MADE MINOR 1F-3F HOURLY AND FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 ABOVE THE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGET OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO PINAL COUNTY. FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED MOS VALUES...WHICH
TRADITIONALLY DOES QUITE WELL IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. ECMWF HAS BEEN A
TOP PERFORMER RECENTLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND THE FORECAST HIGH IN
PHOENIX WAS RAISED TO 82 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING...A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1950.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID
WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET
WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE REDUCED
BY SMOKE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT UNDER 8 KT...AND IN MANY
CASES CALM OR VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260038 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0030Z...

AT 2335Z...THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1700 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREE CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THRU WED.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KHNX 252353
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
353 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 252353
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
353 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 252353
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
353 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 252353
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
353 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 2014...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSTO 252341
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
341 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Strengthening upper level ridging is going to bring continued mild
weather to the area through Thanksgiving. Afternoon temperatures
will peak well above normal levels on Wednesday, with slightly
cooler highs on Thursday as high clouds begin to spread in. There
could be some patchy morning fog/mist in the Valley and mountain
valleys Wednesday and possibly again early Thursday.

A weak wave will bring some precipitation gradually spreading
into the area from north to south Friday. Models have trended a
little slower with this system. The precipitation should be
mainly north of I80 during the day and should have limited impact
on travel. More substantial moisture arrives on Saturday, with
some accumulating snow beginning early Saturday, with more
significant amounts late Saturday through early Sunday. Snow
levels are projected to drop to around 6000-7000 feet on Saturday
and then down to around 6000 feet by early Sunday. Snow amounts
Saturday should generally be relatively light. More impactful snow
is possible Saturday night into early Sunday. Holiday travelers,
especially those going over Sierra passes, should closely monitor
the forecast as it evolves over the next several days. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability of an inch or more
of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the
Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the highest probabilities in the
latter two periods.

Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 252341
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
341 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend and into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Strengthening upper level ridging is going to bring continued mild
weather to the area through Thanksgiving. Afternoon temperatures
will peak well above normal levels on Wednesday, with slightly
cooler highs on Thursday as high clouds begin to spread in. There
could be some patchy morning fog/mist in the Valley and mountain
valleys Wednesday and possibly again early Thursday.

A weak wave will bring some precipitation gradually spreading
into the area from north to south Friday. Models have trended a
little slower with this system. The precipitation should be
mainly north of I80 during the day and should have limited impact
on travel. More substantial moisture arrives on Saturday, with
some accumulating snow beginning early Saturday, with more
significant amounts late Saturday through early Sunday. Snow
levels are projected to drop to around 6000-7000 feet on Saturday
and then down to around 6000 feet by early Sunday. Snow amounts
Saturday should generally be relatively light. More impactful snow
is possible Saturday night into early Sunday. Holiday travelers,
especially those going over Sierra passes, should closely monitor
the forecast as it evolves over the next several days. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Development of a deep...closed upper-level low off the CA coast
during the holiday weekend promises to bring significant rain/mtn
snow to interior Norcal into early next week. A strong probability/
measure of predictability is forecast by the NCEP 15 days 500 mbs
height ensemble for this scenario to unfold. While there is a high
degree of confidence in a multi-day precip event for Norcal...model
differences in timing could result in greater or lesser impacts. For
now...the heaviest QPF is expected to occur from Sun nite into
Mon...or near the end of the holiday weekend during the mass
return/exodus of the public. A high probability of an inch or more
of precip is forecast for the Shasta Co area...and Siernev for the
Sat...Sun...Mon periods...with the highest probabilities in the
latter two periods.

Due to the slower timing of the models...Norcal will be in the WAA
zone ahead of the upper low early in the weekend and we have
adjusted the snow levels upwards to account for this timing. In the
later periods...there is more uncertainty in the timing and amount
of QPF into Tue due to the slower movement of the ECMWF positively-
tilted trof. The GFS may be too progressive with the trof and the
slower timing of the GEM/ECMWF for lingering precip into at least
Tue morning is preferred.    JHM

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC with light winds tonight thru Wed with the exception of
early morning fog/ST and local IFR/LIFR conditions in the Central
Vly and mtn valleys/basins.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 252329
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
329 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:29 PM PST TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE`S PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AS WELL AS VFR FOR THE PERIOD...ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME COOLING INDUCED FOG AT KSTS EARLY
WED MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 252307
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
307 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

...WET THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL PROBABLY SEE FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATUS (AND PERHAPS FOG) THAT HAS BEEN
LURKING 10-15NM FROM SHORE WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AS SE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER ALONG THE COAST TODAY THANKS
TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
CLEARER SKIES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PLACES LIKE KNEELAND AND YOLLA
BOLLA TOPPED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS
IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED INTO THE LOWER 50S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH AND MIDDLE LAYER CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THU AND PERHAPS IN THE INTERIOR OF
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OREGON
CALIFORNIA BORDER...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BACK OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BODES WELL FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT NOT SO WELL FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS RAIN RAMPING UP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE LENGTH TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SHOULD
LET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND WITH HIGHER RATES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR SHARP RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREAKS AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROCK OR MUD SLIDES AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MINOR
STREET FLOODING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST AND
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE STORM THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA; ABOVE 5500 TO
6000 FT THAT IS. LEVELS WILL FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON NIGHT AND
TUE. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL OFF TO SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
ANY OF THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES OF NW CALIFORNIA. //END

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS SOME OF
THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REPORTED. VFR HAS PREVAILED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO HAZE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FORM. STP

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES BUILD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WINDS EASING AND
VEERING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDING SEAS LATE
MONDAY. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252307
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
307 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

...WET THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL PROBABLY SEE FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATUS (AND PERHAPS FOG) THAT HAS BEEN
LURKING 10-15NM FROM SHORE WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AS SE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER ALONG THE COAST TODAY THANKS
TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
CLEARER SKIES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PLACES LIKE KNEELAND AND YOLLA
BOLLA TOPPED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS
IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED INTO THE LOWER 50S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH AND MIDDLE LAYER CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THU AND PERHAPS IN THE INTERIOR OF
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OREGON
CALIFORNIA BORDER...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BACK OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BODES WELL FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT NOT SO WELL FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS RAIN RAMPING UP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE LENGTH TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SHOULD
LET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND WITH HIGHER RATES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR SHARP RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREAKS AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROCK OR MUD SLIDES AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MINOR
STREET FLOODING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST AND
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE STORM THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA; ABOVE 5500 TO
6000 FT THAT IS. LEVELS WILL FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON NIGHT AND
TUE. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL OFF TO SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
ANY OF THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES OF NW CALIFORNIA. //END

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS SOME OF
THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REPORTED. VFR HAS PREVAILED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO HAZE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FORM. STP

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES BUILD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WINDS EASING AND
VEERING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDING SEAS LATE
MONDAY. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS65 KREV 252209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THANKSGIVING, THEN
WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY COULD CLIMB TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
VALUES. THE RECORD HIGH AT THE RENO AIRPORT FOR NOV 27TH IS 70
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1946.

FIRST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE JET
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. BEST CHANCES
ARE OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY, WHERE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET.
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE FOR PLUMAS AND
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THEN FALLING OFF TO 0.10 INCH OR LESS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395. LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE DONNER SUMMIT AREA, BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST FOR THE SATURDAY-
SUNDAY TIME FRAME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF SNOW LEVELS ARE 6500-7000
FEET FOR NORTHEAST CA, AND 7000-8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA FROM
TAHOE SOUTHWARD SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER PASSES.

SUNDAY MAY NOT BE AS WET AS LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN LOW
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 130W, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NEVADA AMPLIFYING A BIT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BACKING OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE MOISTURE FEED
RETREATING FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INLAND, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE DATA. THE POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST AND IN NORTHEAST CA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NV AROUND THE
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW 6000
FEET BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO
THE TAHOE BASIN, BUT THE AIR MASS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO WESTERN NV VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL RATHER LOW FOR THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THIS STORM AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
THE SNOW LEVELS.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252152
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND A SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW ONLY 4.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
1.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR
TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 00Z RUN...AS IT
STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
AS IT TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A FASTER
PROGRESSION THAN THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED. THE 12Z GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO DEPICTS THE TROUGH BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT STARTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...2-3 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START OUT
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AS WE GET WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM INDICATING HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS AND
STRONG UDDFS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THUS...THE
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252152
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND A SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW ONLY 4.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
1.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR
TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 00Z RUN...AS IT
STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
AS IT TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A FASTER
PROGRESSION THAN THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED. THE 12Z GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO DEPICTS THE TROUGH BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT STARTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...2-3 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START OUT
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AS WE GET WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM INDICATING HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS AND
STRONG UDDFS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THUS...THE
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252152
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND A SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW ONLY 4.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
1.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR
TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 00Z RUN...AS IT
STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
AS IT TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A FASTER
PROGRESSION THAN THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED. THE 12Z GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO DEPICTS THE TROUGH BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT STARTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...2-3 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START OUT
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AS WE GET WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM INDICATING HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS AND
STRONG UDDFS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THUS...THE
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252152
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND A SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW ONLY 4.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
1.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR
TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 00Z RUN...AS IT
STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
AS IT TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A FASTER
PROGRESSION THAN THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED. THE 12Z GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO DEPICTS THE TROUGH BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT STARTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...2-3 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START OUT
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AS WE GET WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM INDICATING HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS AND
STRONG UDDFS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THUS...THE
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252152
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
152 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND A SEA-BREEZE KICKING IN AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW ONLY 4.8 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
1.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR
TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER...BUT NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 00Z RUN...AS IT
STARTS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
AS IT TAPS INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A FASTER
PROGRESSION THAN THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED. THE 12Z GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE
12Z ECMWF IN THAT IT ALSO DEPICTS THE TROUGH BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT STARTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH 1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...2-3 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START OUT
SOMEWHAT HIGH AT AROUND 8000-9000 FEET AS WE GET WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM INDICATING HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH
GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LLWS AND
STRONG UDDFS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OFF. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND INTO THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THUS...THE
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER WITH THE
WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AND SO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE MET.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT
     OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER
     DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 252141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
141 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:40 PM PST TUESDAY...THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK REMAINS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL
PERSIST AS A RESULT. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS DECENT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR
WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREA.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...A DEEPER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT PART OF THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. OVERALL...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL ADVANCE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH BAY WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT IS WORTH
NOTHING THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STAY DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASED MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGER JET ALOFT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THUS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS POINT...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST WPC 1-7 DAY FORECAST
DEPICTS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTH BAY...2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE SATAN LUCIA
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS COULD PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM 1/2
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN INLAND VALLEYS TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE URBAN
AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252118
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WARM WEATHER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, INCLUDING THE RED FLAG HAVE BEEN
LET GO OR WILL BE SOON. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
TEMPS UP ON THANKSGIVING A FEW DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY`S
LEVELS.

GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED FOR COAST AND VALLEYS. STILL
ABOVE NORMAL BUT COOLER BY 5-7 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. STILL CLEAR SKIES
BUT LIKELY SOME MARINE LYR CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS OUR NEXT STORM APPROACHES. MARINE LYR CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
EXPANSIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

MODEL TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THIS NEXT STORM BUT VIRTUALLY A
100% CHANCE OF RAIN SOMETIME FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO BE
TOO MUCH MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES. WHILE THIS STORM LOOKS STRONGER THAN STORMS
WE`VE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST IT`S CERTAINLY NOT THE STORM OF THE
CENTURY AND PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN YOUR AVERAGE WINTER STORM FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO A BRIEF
CHANCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
POSTIVE SIDE, THE 12Z EC AND GFS RUNS DO APPEAR TO BE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS STILL FASTER BOTH WITH THE ONSET
AND THE ENDING. BOTH ARE ALSO HOLDING ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, THE GFS BEING SHOWING LIGHT WARM FRONTAL RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO ONSET OF RAIN IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AM
LEAVING POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS A NOD TO THE GFS, AND BUMPED UP
MONDAY`S POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME
RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLID RAIN EVENT, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 IN THE MTNS. NOT A GOOD SNOW MAKER
THOUGH AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 8000 FT UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENT WHEN THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS65 KPSR 252104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 ABOVE THE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGET OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO PINAL COUNTY. FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED MOS VALUES...WHICH
TRADITIONALLY DOES QUITE WELL IN THESE SCENARIOS.

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. ECMWF HAS BEEN A
TOP PERFORMER RECENTLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE AND THE FORECAST HIGH IN
PHOENIX WAS RAISED TO 82 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING...A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 86 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1950.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID
WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS
REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET
WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 8 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE WINDS
REVERTING BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY
SMOKE ON WED MORNING WEST OF KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS66 KHNX 251950
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1150 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251950
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1150 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCH MORNING FOG AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER.

ADDITIONALLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT LIGHT RAIN...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FOG FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL MAY TAKE A BIT
LONGER.

ON FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH IMPACTING MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH...IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DIFFERENT ROUND OF RAIN WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 7500-8000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 5000-5500 BY MONDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK
STORM...MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1" WHILE
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1" AND 2" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD EASILY
SEE A FEW FEET OF SNOW.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE NCEP RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICABILITY FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. TO ADD TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THE NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MEASURE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA HAS INCREASED
10 FOLD. WE ARE CERTAIN THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WE ARE JUST UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY...AS THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.
LASTLY...WESTERN NWS OFFICES WILL BE USING THE HASHTAG
#LEFTOVERSWX TO SEND OUT MESSAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA REGARDING THIS
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
06Z TUE UNTIL 18Z TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251908 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 8 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE WINDS
REVERTING BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY
SMOKE ON WED MORNING WEST OF KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251908 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 8 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE WINDS
REVERTING BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY
SMOKE ON WED MORNING WEST OF KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251908 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1210 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 8 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE WINDS
REVERTING BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY
SMOKE ON WED MORNING WEST OF KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251908 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1210 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH STEADILY WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AOB 8 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...WITH THE WINDS
REVERTING BACK TO THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES COULD BE ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY
SMOKE ON WED MORNING WEST OF KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB







000
FXUS66 KMTR 251749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG
TIME SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT
WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS
AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST
COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG
TIME SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT
WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS
AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST
COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 251749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG
TIME SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT
WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS
AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST
COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 251749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG
TIME SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT
WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS
AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST
COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP NEAR SANTA ROSA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:45 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 251748
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
947 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WEAK EAST AFTER 26/07Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/02Z AND AFTER
26/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 26/05-26/21Z AND
LESS THAN 10 KT.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 251734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
933 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 251734
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
933 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA.  A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA
ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 251717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 251717
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...25/915 AM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...AS COLD
AIR THAT WAS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER WIND BOOST MOVED MUCH FURTHER
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. DESPITE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES UNDER 10 PERCENT...THESE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY
WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MARGINAL
AT MOST. WEAKER WINDS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT A DECISION ON WHETHER THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD BE
CANCELED WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING IF WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 251709
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PST TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION TO THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM SET FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW
TURNS BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG
TIME SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DIGS OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT
WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS
AND TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST
COVERED WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
NEAR STS. THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 16Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KSGX 251706
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
906 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE ONLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WINDS PEAKED OVERNIGHT...WITH SILL HILL
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVING A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH AT 11 PM LAST
NIGHT. CANSAC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH
AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AND MORE-SO TOMORROW...AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS IT IN STARTING MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN MOVES IT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND BRINGS THE TROUGH
IN LATE MONDAY AND MOVES IT OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
GEM IS THE SLOWEST AND HEAVIEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS...3 INCHES OR
MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS
WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
251600Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF LLWS AND STRONG UDDFS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WINDS WERE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE STILL IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING...WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 5 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE ON
THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KSGX 251706
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
906 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW
COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SANTA ANA WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE ONLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WINDS PEAKED OVERNIGHT...WITH SILL HILL
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVING A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH AT 11 PM LAST
NIGHT. CANSAC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GUSTS LOOK TO BE ONLY IN THE 35-50 MPH
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND THROUGH
AND BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AND MORE-SO TOMORROW...AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST WHERE A LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN THE START OF A
COOLING TREND. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE COAST STARTS TO SEE
SOME DENSE FOG AS EARLY AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE LATEST...THE
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. COOLING AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS IT IN STARTING MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN MOVES IT OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND BRINGS THE TROUGH
IN LATE MONDAY AND MOVES IT OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
GEM IS THE SLOWEST AND HEAVIEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
1 INCH OR GREATER POSSIBLE IN THE COAST AND VALLEYS...3 INCHES OR
MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE DESERTS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ALSO...DAY-TIME HIGHS WILL FALL TO 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY...WINDS WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AS
WELL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL 40-60 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
251600Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF LLWS AND STRONG UDDFS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WINDS WERE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE STILL IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING...WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 5 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE ON
THURSDAY...WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS...RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...THE MARINE LAYER...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND A
DIMINISHED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSTO 251702
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Strengthening upper level ridging is bringing a warmer start to
the day today, with limited amounts of fog and mist quickly
burning off. Plan to increase forecast high temperatures for this
afternoon a few degrees with mostly clear skies and a warming
airmass. Forecast looks good otherwise.

A weak wave will bring some precipitation gradually spreading
into the area from north to south late Friday. This should have
little impact on travel. More substantial moisture arrives on
Saturday, with the main storm system moving in on Sunday and
continuing into Monday. At this point, it looks like accumulating
snow could begin early Saturday, with more significant amounts late
Saturday through Sunday and Monday. Some lingering moisture
should persist into Tuesday, with drier weather returning ny
Wednesday. EK

.Previous Discussion...
Amplifying upper ridge over the eastern Pacific is pushing most of
the high clouds well to the north of the area this morning.
Despite the mainly clear skies and light winds, temperatures are
a little warmer at most locales compared to 24 hours ago.

The high pressure ridge will strengthen across NorCal through
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm a little each day. Some
high clouds are expected to drift through the region the next
several days. Patches of fog, mainly from near Marysville south,
are expected the next couple of mornings, but overall the
northerly dry flow should help to limit the extent of fog each
morning. Thanksgiving continues to look dry and mild this year.

Warm advection and slowly approaching frontal system may spread
some light precipitation across the northern half of the forecast
area by later Friday, but more significant precipitation and
weather impacts are expected to hold off until the weekend.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Medium-range models continue to be in good agreement, swinging the
first in a series of cold fronts through Northern California late
Friday into Friday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue
into early next week with strong jet dynamics and good diffluent
flow aloft. The strongest precipitation is likely to be Sunday
into Monday as the cold upper low approaches the region. The
primary impacts anticipated will be to Thanksgiving holiday travel
with rain, snow, and breezy conditions. Subtle differences in the
systems` timing, position, and strength can have a large impact on
amounts. Being this far out, the rain/snow forecast amounts will
likely change. Nonetheless, be prepared for potentially delayed
travel due to road conditions. In addition, fallen leaves this
time of year can contribute to clogged drains and localized
flooding.

Dang/JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions and light winds for the period as high pressure
remains in control. Valley fog did not materialize this morning as
models had forecasted with only an hour of MVFR visby at KSCK and
KSMF. Have left it out of TAFs for Weds morning at this time with
stagnant air mass and limited moisture. Something to watch for
later forecasts. CEO


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 251702
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by late Friday and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Strengthening upper level ridging is bringing a warmer start to
the day today, with limited amounts of fog and mist quickly
burning off. Plan to increase forecast high temperatures for this
afternoon a few degrees with mostly clear skies and a warming
airmass. Forecast looks good otherwise.

A weak wave will bring some precipitation gradually spreading
into the area from north to south late Friday. This should have
little impact on travel. More substantial moisture arrives on
Saturday, with the main storm system moving in on Sunday and
continuing into Monday. At this point, it looks like accumulating
snow could begin early Saturday, with more significant amounts late
Saturday through Sunday and Monday. Some lingering moisture
should persist into Tuesday, with drier weather returning ny
Wednesday. EK

.Previous Discussion...
Amplifying upper ridge over the eastern Pacific is pushing most of
the high clouds well to the north of the area this morning.
Despite the mainly clear skies and light winds, temperatures are
a little warmer at most locales compared to 24 hours ago.

The high pressure ridge will strengthen across NorCal through
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm a little each day. Some
high clouds are expected to drift through the region the next
several days. Patches of fog, mainly from near Marysville south,
are expected the next couple of mornings, but overall the
northerly dry flow should help to limit the extent of fog each
morning. Thanksgiving continues to look dry and mild this year.

Warm advection and slowly approaching frontal system may spread
some light precipitation across the northern half of the forecast
area by later Friday, but more significant precipitation and
weather impacts are expected to hold off until the weekend.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Medium-range models continue to be in good agreement, swinging the
first in a series of cold fronts through Northern California late
Friday into Friday night. Unsettled weather will likely continue
into early next week with strong jet dynamics and good diffluent
flow aloft. The strongest precipitation is likely to be Sunday
into Monday as the cold upper low approaches the region. The
primary impacts anticipated will be to Thanksgiving holiday travel
with rain, snow, and breezy conditions. Subtle differences in the
systems` timing, position, and strength can have a large impact on
amounts. Being this far out, the rain/snow forecast amounts will
likely change. Nonetheless, be prepared for potentially delayed
travel due to road conditions. In addition, fallen leaves this
time of year can contribute to clogged drains and localized
flooding.

Dang/JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions and light winds for the period as high pressure
remains in control. Valley fog did not materialize this morning as
models had forecasted with only an hour of MVFR visby at KSCK and
KSMF. Have left it out of TAFs for Weds morning at this time with
stagnant air mass and limited moisture. Something to watch for
later forecasts. CEO


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPSR 251627
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
STRONGER N/NE WINDS IN THE 2K-4K FT LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POOR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX DUE TO SMOKE BEFORE THE
INVERSION STARTS TO BREAK. LESS NELY/ELY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB












000
FXUS65 KPSR 251627
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE STARTED OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A MIN TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES REPORTED
AT SKY HARBOR. LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
STRONGER N/NE WINDS IN THE 2K-4K FT LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POOR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX DUE TO SMOKE BEFORE THE
INVERSION STARTS TO BREAK. LESS NELY/ELY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB











000
FXUS66 KMTR 251317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW TURNS
BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG TIME
SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS
OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH
HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND
TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER
DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
NEAR STS. THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 16Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
517 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW TURNS
BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG TIME
SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS
OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH
HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND
TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER
DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PST TUESDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
NEAR STS. THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 16Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 251246
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INLAND
VALLEYS ARE SEEING SOME FOG AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE COAST HAS
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THEM MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT
WARMER. THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AGAIN TODAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND ARES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THIS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE INLAND VALLEY
FOG AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE
IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHILE HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND THE
HEAVIER PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OREGON. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER IN THE NORTH...BUT PUSHES
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO BRING MUCH FLOODING. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORT BREAKS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE OUT. RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THEY RECEDE AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT.
LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

TUESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 6000 TO 8000
FT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL START TO FALL WITH THIS LAST
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FT ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECK OF LOW
CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CA WITH VALLEY FOG
INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG
FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AS THE
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD MAINTAINS A WEAK
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE GROUP SLOWLY SUBSIDES. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS REACHING TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR WINDS STEEP SEAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEWER MODEL RUNS
TO DETERMINE TIMING. A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FLUCTUATE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS STILL HARD TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 251246
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INLAND
VALLEYS ARE SEEING SOME FOG AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE COAST HAS
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THEM MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT
WARMER. THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AGAIN TODAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND ARES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THIS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE INLAND VALLEY
FOG AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE
IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHILE HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND THE
HEAVIER PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OREGON. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER IN THE NORTH...BUT PUSHES
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO BRING MUCH FLOODING. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORT BREAKS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE OUT. RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THEY RECEDE AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT.
LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

TUESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 6000 TO 8000
FT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL START TO FALL WITH THIS LAST
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FT ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECK OF LOW
CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CA WITH VALLEY FOG
INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG
FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AS THE
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD MAINTAINS A WEAK
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE GROUP SLOWLY SUBSIDES. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS REACHING TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR WINDS STEEP SEAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEWER MODEL RUNS
TO DETERMINE TIMING. A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FLUCTUATE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS STILL HARD TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KHNX 251200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN LESS FOG BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE IS CURRENTLY LESS FOG BEING REPORTED
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THAN RECENT MORNINGS...WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 6
MILES. BY DAYBREAK HOWEVER WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING
INLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PROVIDING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD AS THEY SHOW THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND FLATTENING BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THURSDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THERE ARE MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...LOWERING
CERTAINTY ON SOME SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT...BUT A CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS IS DEFINITELY COMING TO OUR AREA AFTER THANKSGIVING.

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO TRACK MAINLY NORTH OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES
INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE MAIN
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. DURING THIS EVENT...MODELS SHOW A
MODERATE MOISTURE FETCH AND SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
QUANTITIES ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FT IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON...WHERE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXPECT SOME SNOW AS LOW AS AROUND
6000 FT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ELSEWHERE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND OVER THE RIDGES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE HAZARDS ARE SUMMED UP IN A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIFICS ON EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
THROUGH 18Z TUE AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251200
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN LESS FOG BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. A WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE IS CURRENTLY LESS FOG BEING REPORTED
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THAN RECENT MORNINGS...WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 6
MILES. BY DAYBREAK HOWEVER WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING
INLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PROVIDING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEY EACH MORNING.

MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD AS THEY SHOW THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AND FLATTENING BY THANKSGIVING DAY AS A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THURSDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THERE ARE MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...LOWERING
CERTAINTY ON SOME SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT...BUT A CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS IS DEFINITELY COMING TO OUR AREA AFTER THANKSGIVING.

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO TRACK MAINLY NORTH OF
OUR AREA SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES
INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE MAIN
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. DURING THIS EVENT...MODELS SHOW A
MODERATE MOISTURE FETCH AND SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
QUANTITIES ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FT IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON...WHERE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXPECT SOME SNOW AS LOW AS AROUND
6000 FT. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ELSEWHERE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND OVER THE RIDGES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE HAZARDS ARE SUMMED UP IN A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIFICS ON EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/MIST AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG FROM
THROUGH 18Z TUE AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-25       76:1933     45:1972     54:1985     27:1898
KFAT 11-26       75:1914     45:1972     53:2008     30:1987
KFAT 11-27       78:1959     47:1972     54:1985     27:1948

KBFL 11-25       79:1914     45:1954     55:1910     25:1931
KBFL 11-26       90:1907     47:1972     53:2008     27:1931
KBFL 11-27       85:1901     46:1972     54:1904     28:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSTO 251145
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
345 AM PST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather is expected through Thanksgiving as high
pressure covers the region. Rain is expected to return to the
region by the weekend and continue into early next week. Snow
across the mountains is likely to cause travel difficulties for
the holiday weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Amplifying upper ridge over the eastern Pacific is pushing most of
the high clouds well to the north of the area this morning.
Despite the mainly clear skies and light winds, temperatures are
a little warmer at most locales compared to 24 hours ago.

The high pressure ridge will strengthen across NorCal through
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm a little each day. Some
high clouds are expected to drift through the region the next
several days. Patches of fog, mainly from near Marysville south,
are expected the next couple of mornings, but overall the
northerly dry flow should help to limit the extent of fog each
morning. Thanksgiving continues to look dry and mild this year.

Warm advection and slowly approaching frontal system may spread
some light precipitation across the northern half of the forecast
area by later Friday, but more significant precipitation and
weather impacts are expected to hold off until the weekend.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Medium-range models continue to be in good agreement, swinging
the first in a series of cold fronts through Northern California
late Friday into Friday night. Unsettled weather will likely
continue into early next week with strong jet dynamics and good
diffluent flow aloft. The strongest precipitation is likely to be
Sunday into Monday as the cold upper low approaches the region.
The primary impacts anticipated will be to Thanksgiving holiday
travel with rain, snow, and breezy conditions. Subtle differences
in the systems` timing, position, and strength can have a large
impact on amounts. Being this far out, the rain/snow forecast
amounts will likely change. Nonetheless, be prepared for
potentially delayed travel due to road conditions. In addition,
fallen leaves this time of year can contribute to clogged drains
and localized flooding. Dang/JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions for tonight except valley fog expected again early
this morning mainly from near KMYV southward with MVFR and good
probability of IFR/LIFR vsbys under mainly clear skies and light
flow. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 251141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW TURNS
BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG TIME
SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS
OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH
HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND
TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER
DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. FOG FORMATION
THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOR KSTS WAS DISCOUNTED.
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OUTSIDE OF KSTS FOG ISSUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER 10KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS UNDER
10 KT THROUGH 15Z. SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO G15KT AT KSNS FROM 110
TO 130 DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
341 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES THANKSGIVING DAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.
FIRST FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PST TUESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
DEW-POINTS STILL HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GRADIENTS STILL SHOW
OVER 1 MB OF OFFSHORE FROM SFO TO SAC WITH EAST WINDS MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY OUT TO THE BUOYS. UPSHOT IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDS. GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS...AT LEAST IN CALIFORNIA
WITH NO FOG OR PRECIP TO WORRY ABOUT.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING BUT WEATHER LOOKS NICE FOR
ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOW TURNS
BACK TO ONSHORE MEANING MOST AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH LESS OF THE 70 PLUS TYPE WEATHER. NEED TO MENTION
THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMP AT BUOY 26 HAS DROPPED TO 57 DEGREES
WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD BUT HASN`T BEEN THAT LOW IN A LONG TIME
SO THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL HAVE A BIT OF CHILL.

OF COURSE WEATHER ITEM OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL OVERALL. LATEST
THINKING SUGGESTS THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANYTHING THE MODEL TRENDS SEEM
TO BE SLOWING THINGS AS JET ENERGY DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC AND WITH
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATE A SLOWER
EVOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NEED TO STRESS THAT SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA COULD STAY DRY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS
OFF THE COAST. RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION EVENT WITH
HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND REALLY ONLY EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE NORTH BAY WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND
TONGUE OF 1.25 PWAT MAY LINE UP BETTER.

ANYWAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN AT SOME POINT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF UPPER
DYNAMICS AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES. FOR NOW ITS ALL JUST COVERED WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF THAT THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE SURFACE
FRONT...UPPER JET AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS
OVERHEAD. WHEN THIS OCCURS IS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. ITS STILL JUST TOO FAR OUT TO
FINE TUNE DETAILS BUT IF THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND THEN SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE WINNING OUT IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE BAY AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPS
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. FOG FORMATION
THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOR KSTS WAS DISCOUNTED.
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OUTSIDE OF KSTS FOG ISSUE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER 10KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS UNDER
10 KT THROUGH 15Z. SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO G15KT AT KSNS FROM 110
TO 130 DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:00 AM PST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS TO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR.
08Z DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE -2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON
MONDAY AND ROSE INTO THE LOWER 70S. COULD SEE SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TODAY BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD FOR MID WEEK...THANKSGIVING...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
AND POSITION ITSELF OVER ARIZONA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES...PEAKING AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL VERY QUIET WEATHER WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TODAYS 00Z GFS IS
A BIT FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL PER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. I INTRODUCED 20-30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS ARIZONA
MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS TIMING
WHEN THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW LEVELS FALL QUITE A
BIT BEHIND THE LOW ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
STRONGER N/NE WINDS IN THE 2K-4K FT LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POOR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEST OF KPHX DUE TO SMOKE BEFORE THE
INVERSION STARTS TO BREAK. LESS NELY/ELY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
LOWER DESERTS.A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CLIMB SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INLAND AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY
MONDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA
DESERTS WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD...SLOWLY
IMPROVING EACH NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS REACHING BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS66 KSGX 251128
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)...
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE WORKSTATION WRF AND CANSAC WRF SHOW
SUPPORT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS NOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY PAST
THE PEAK WITH SUPPORT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUST OVERNIGHT WAS 87 MPH AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AT 1110 PM MONDAY. AT 230 AM
THIS MORNING...THERE WERE ISOLATED GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINDS THAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST ON THANKSGIVING...BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY...AND
GREATER COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AS WELL
THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE GEM IS SIMILAR
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL FASTER BEYOND MIDDAY MONDAY. BESIDES THE SLOWER TIMING...THE
OTHER IMPACT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE THE GREATER
POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY TAP GREATER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY MARCH.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY IN AND BELOW FOOTHILLS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF
LLWS AND STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER SMALL
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
COASTAL FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

STRONGEST SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WEAKER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 251128
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)...
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE WORKSTATION WRF AND CANSAC WRF SHOW
SUPPORT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS NOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY PAST
THE PEAK WITH SUPPORT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUST OVERNIGHT WAS 87 MPH AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AT 1110 PM MONDAY. AT 230 AM
THIS MORNING...THERE WERE ISOLATED GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINDS THAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST ON THANKSGIVING...BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY...AND
GREATER COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AS WELL
THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE GEM IS SIMILAR
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL FASTER BEYOND MIDDAY MONDAY. BESIDES THE SLOWER TIMING...THE
OTHER IMPACT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE THE GREATER
POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY TAP GREATER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY MARCH.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY IN AND BELOW FOOTHILLS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF
LLWS AND STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER SMALL
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
COASTAL FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

STRONGEST SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WEAKER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 251128
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)...
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE WORKSTATION WRF AND CANSAC WRF SHOW
SUPPORT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS NOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY PAST
THE PEAK WITH SUPPORT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUST OVERNIGHT WAS 87 MPH AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AT 1110 PM MONDAY. AT 230 AM
THIS MORNING...THERE WERE ISOLATED GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINDS THAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST ON THANKSGIVING...BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY...AND
GREATER COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AS WELL
THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE GEM IS SIMILAR
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL FASTER BEYOND MIDDAY MONDAY. BESIDES THE SLOWER TIMING...THE
OTHER IMPACT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE THE GREATER
POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY TAP GREATER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY MARCH.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY IN AND BELOW FOOTHILLS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF
LLWS AND STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER SMALL
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
COASTAL FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

STRONGEST SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WEAKER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 251128
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY AND GREATER
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING)...
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE WORKSTATION WRF AND CANSAC WRF SHOW
SUPPORT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS NOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY PAST
THE PEAK WITH SUPPORT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUST OVERNIGHT WAS 87 MPH AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AT 1110 PM MONDAY. AT 230 AM
THIS MORNING...THERE WERE ISOLATED GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINDS THAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST ON THANKSGIVING...BUT STILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SLOW COOLING ON FRIDAY...AND
GREATER COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AS WELL
THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE GEM IS SIMILAR
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...THOUGH
STILL FASTER BEYOND MIDDAY MONDAY. BESIDES THE SLOWER TIMING...THE
OTHER IMPACT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE THE GREATER
POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY TAP GREATER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY MARCH.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF SURFACE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY IN AND BELOW FOOTHILLS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF
LLWS AND STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS DIMINISH
BY LATE MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER SMALL
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...
COASTAL FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

STRONGEST SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOT QUITE AS STRONG WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WEAKER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLING
TREND AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES. SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE
     SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL
     FOREST...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING
     THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
     SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST...SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND
     VALLEYS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR
     AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
     FOREST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER
     DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KLOX 251128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

24/150 PM

THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251128
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
BIG 592 DM EAST PAC UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER.
IT WILL PUSH CLOSER TO CA TODAY...THE PEAK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL DIMINISH SOME THU AND THEN SOME MORE FRIDAY AS A STORM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH.

OFFSHORE FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH OVER WILL PEAK TODAY...DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THEN SOME MORE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL
FINALLY TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY SIZABLE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT A FEW DAYS AGO
HAS TURNED OUT MUCH WEAKER. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN
THE MTNS THE SANTA CLARITA VLY...THE ERN VTA VLYS AND THE SANTA
MONICA MTNS THAT JUST REACH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE VTA COAST
AND THE MALIBU STRIP. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE
ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF CANYON
WINDS WED MORNING BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAX TEMPS ARE THE BIG STORY. RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS TODAY...FURTHER WARMING IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER HIGH PEAKS OVER THE AREA. TODAYS HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS...MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWLY
DECREASES SO WILL THE TEMPS AND BOTH THU AND FRI WILL BE COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. STILL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ALL EYES ON THE BIG PATTER SHIFT THAT WILL START SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL TERMS AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL SWING A TROF OVER THE STATE AT SOME TIME SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. QUITE CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SOUTHLAND IS GOING TO SEE
SOME RAIN. WHAT IS NOT CERTAIN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL START...WHEN IT
WILL END AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL.

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PROMISING AGREEMENT EARLIER
THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE THE EC IS NOW SLOWER WITH A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROF. THE
GFS BRINGS THE RAIN IN EARLIER THAN THE EC...ENDS THE RAIN EARLIER
AND GIVES THE AREA LESS RAIN IN GENERAL THAN THE SLOWER WETTER EC.
MDL ENSEMBLE RUNS SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE EC SO PUSHED THE FORECAST A
LITTLE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC. IF THE EC VERIFIES ONLY THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LA COUNTY WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. ACTUALLY NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT TOTALLY REMOVE RAIN CHCS FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THE MDLS ARE NOW BOUNCING AROUND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TONIGHTS RUNS BRING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS STORM COULD BE QUITE A SOAKER AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH IT DEVELOP.

KNOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN IMPORTANT TRAVEL DAY AND HOPE FOR A
LESS WISHY WASHY FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36 OR 48 HOURS.

AMONG THE OTHER DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
EACH DAY WITH THE BIGGEST DROP ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY SUNDAY. A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND A LITTLE LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
THE TROF. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES NEARER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1030Z

THERE IS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX AT 25/0910Z WITH AN
INVERSION TOP OF 1300 FEET AND A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREE CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW...CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
LGT-MDT LLWS AND TURBULENCE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN
EASTERLY WIND OF 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

25/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AHEAD OF A STORM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
FROM ABOUT POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOT NEARSHORE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS...TURNING WEAK ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

24/150 PM

THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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