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000
FXUS66 KMTR 221221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
421 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHES PAST THE AREA BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST MONDAY...MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST THUS FAR
HOWEVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BUCKET TIPS OF DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND THE BAY SHORE. PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...ALSO CALLED
KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
YESTERDAY SAW SOME ISSUES INCLUDING ROADS CLOSED IN FREQUENT
TROUBLE SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY AND WATER LAPPING ONTO THE
EMBARCADERO IN SAN FRANCISCO. THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE
HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE
A COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN INSIDE SLIDER DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HAVE MORE
PRECIP INTO THE DISTRICT HOWEVER THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME
INTENSITY. NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH FOR SAN FRANCISCO IT IS STILL
AROUND 10 PERCENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTH BAY AND FAR EAST BAY AS THE SYSTEM GOES BY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT
SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLER AIRMASS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 30S.

RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 AM PST MONDAY...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING
IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING LOCAL FOG AROUND THE SFO AND MRY
BAY AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN THE EAST BAY AS WELL AS THE MRY
BAY AREA THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4-1/2 MILE AT OAK.
THE 12Z METAR AT SFO SHOWS VSBY IS 10 MILES BUT THE CIGS HAVE
LIFTED AND DEWPT/TEMP SPREAD IS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD BRING FOG INTO SFO
BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17Z BUT LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/2 TO
3 MILES THROUGH 17Z. VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER 17Z TO 3-5 MILES AFTER
17Z BUT REMAINING IFR THROUGH 19Z. MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z. POSSIBLE
CLEARING OF THE CIGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE SEABREEZE IS
STRONG ENOUGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 17Z.
LIFR FOR CIGS THROUGH 19Z. IFR CIGS AFTER 19Z BECOMING MVFR TO VFR
AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:01 AM PST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 221221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
421 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHES PAST THE AREA BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST MONDAY...MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST THUS FAR
HOWEVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BUCKET TIPS OF DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND THE BAY SHORE. PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...ALSO CALLED
KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
YESTERDAY SAW SOME ISSUES INCLUDING ROADS CLOSED IN FREQUENT
TROUBLE SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY AND WATER LAPPING ONTO THE
EMBARCADERO IN SAN FRANCISCO. THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE
HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE
A COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN INSIDE SLIDER DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HAVE MORE
PRECIP INTO THE DISTRICT HOWEVER THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME
INTENSITY. NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH FOR SAN FRANCISCO IT IS STILL
AROUND 10 PERCENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTH BAY AND FAR EAST BAY AS THE SYSTEM GOES BY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT
SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLER AIRMASS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 30S.

RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 AM PST MONDAY...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING
IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING LOCAL FOG AROUND THE SFO AND MRY
BAY AREA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN THE EAST BAY AS WELL AS THE MRY
BAY AREA THIS MORNING. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4-1/2 MILE AT OAK.
THE 12Z METAR AT SFO SHOWS VSBY IS 10 MILES BUT THE CIGS HAVE
LIFTED AND DEWPT/TEMP SPREAD IS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD BRING FOG INTO SFO
BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z. VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17Z BUT LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/2 TO
3 MILES THROUGH 17Z. VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER 17Z TO 3-5 MILES AFTER
17Z BUT REMAINING IFR THROUGH 19Z. MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z. POSSIBLE
CLEARING OF THE CIGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF THE SEABREEZE IS
STRONG ENOUGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 17Z.
LIFR FOR CIGS THROUGH 19Z. IFR CIGS AFTER 19Z BECOMING MVFR TO VFR
AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:01 AM PST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 221204
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
404 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge. Patchy late night
and morning valley fog. Another weather system will brush across
the region late Wednesday and early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Amplifying upper ridge over the eastern Pacific has finally pushed
the deeper moisture and warm advection north of the region. Skies
have cleared out across the region except for lingering clouds
across the northern mountains, and the solid footprint of stratus
and patchy fog over the Central Valley. Early morning temperatures
remain very mild ranging from the upper 30s and 40s in the
mountains to the 50s in the valley, about the same as 24 hours ago.

Dry and mild weather will continue for interior NorCal early this
week. Appears there will be enough northerly flow and mixing today
to break out of the stratus across most of the valley by late
morning or early afternoon allowing a return of sunshine for at
least a part of the day. Looks favorable for the pattern to repeat
itself tonight and early Tuesday, then there`s a chance the valley
stratus may develop Tuesday night and linger all day Wednesday as
flow begins to reverse ahead of the next system.

Confidence is increasing that we`ll see a quick moving system
brush across the region later Wednesday into early Christmas. Main
impacts will likely be confined to the mountains where 3-6 inches
of snow may fall Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. For the
valley, only light amounts of QPF (< 1/4 inch) are expected.

Northwesterly flow behind the system forecast to bring a return of
drier conditions for most of the area by Christmas afternoon.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Pacific ridging spreads eastward as trough shifts eastward of the
region. Dry northwest flow sets up, with breezy north-northeast
winds develop on Friday. Cooler temperatures set in, especially in
the mountains. The winds in the Valley will keep temperatures from
dropping too much. An inside slider system will bring the
potential for mainly mountain precipitation for the weekend, along
with another round of breezy northerly winds. The ECMWF continues
to be the wettest of the extended models. Have bumped up pops for
the northern mountains and Sierra. This could be a rather cold
system, but expect that it will have little moisture to work with,
so any rain and snow amounts would likely be limited. EK

&&

.Aviation...
Local LIFR this morning in the Valley with patchy fog. North winds
are limiting fog development, lifting to low stratus layers with
some BR remaining. Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by
18Z as stratus breaks up and vsbys improve. BR and fog return
tonight, but again northerly winds will limit development, which
should be favored in sheltered areas east side of Valley. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 221204
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
404 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge. Patchy late night
and morning valley fog. Another weather system will brush across
the region late Wednesday and early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Amplifying upper ridge over the eastern Pacific has finally pushed
the deeper moisture and warm advection north of the region. Skies
have cleared out across the region except for lingering clouds
across the northern mountains, and the solid footprint of stratus
and patchy fog over the Central Valley. Early morning temperatures
remain very mild ranging from the upper 30s and 40s in the
mountains to the 50s in the valley, about the same as 24 hours ago.

Dry and mild weather will continue for interior NorCal early this
week. Appears there will be enough northerly flow and mixing today
to break out of the stratus across most of the valley by late
morning or early afternoon allowing a return of sunshine for at
least a part of the day. Looks favorable for the pattern to repeat
itself tonight and early Tuesday, then there`s a chance the valley
stratus may develop Tuesday night and linger all day Wednesday as
flow begins to reverse ahead of the next system.

Confidence is increasing that we`ll see a quick moving system
brush across the region later Wednesday into early Christmas. Main
impacts will likely be confined to the mountains where 3-6 inches
of snow may fall Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. For the
valley, only light amounts of QPF (< 1/4 inch) are expected.

Northwesterly flow behind the system forecast to bring a return of
drier conditions for most of the area by Christmas afternoon.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
Pacific ridging spreads eastward as trough shifts eastward of the
region. Dry northwest flow sets up, with breezy north-northeast
winds develop on Friday. Cooler temperatures set in, especially in
the mountains. The winds in the Valley will keep temperatures from
dropping too much. An inside slider system will bring the
potential for mainly mountain precipitation for the weekend, along
with another round of breezy northerly winds. The ECMWF continues
to be the wettest of the extended models. Have bumped up pops for
the northern mountains and Sierra. This could be a rather cold
system, but expect that it will have little moisture to work with,
so any rain and snow amounts would likely be limited. EK

&&

.Aviation...
Local LIFR this morning in the Valley with patchy fog. North winds
are limiting fog development, lifting to low stratus layers with
some BR remaining. Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by
18Z as stratus breaks up and vsbys improve. BR and fog return
tonight, but again northerly winds will limit development, which
should be favored in sheltered areas east side of Valley. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 221152 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES AND THE NRN MTN SLOPES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDS IN LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS IN THE MTNS...ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDFS.

GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND VLYS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND CONT TUE MORNING.

KLAX...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
16Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS AND MDT UDDF THIS
MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT LLWS AND
MDT UDDF THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221152 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES AND THE NRN MTN SLOPES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDS IN LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS IN THE MTNS...ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDFS.

GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND VLYS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND CONT TUE MORNING.

KLAX...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
16Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS AND MDT UDDF THIS
MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT LLWS AND
MDT UDDF THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221152 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES AND THE NRN MTN SLOPES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDS IN LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS IN THE MTNS...ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDFS.

GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND VLYS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND CONT TUE MORNING.

KLAX...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
16Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS AND MDT UDDF THIS
MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT LLWS AND
MDT UDDF THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221152 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES AND THE NRN MTN SLOPES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDS IN LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS IN THE MTNS...ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY...AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LLWS AND MDT TO STG UDDFS.

GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND VLYS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND CONT TUE MORNING.

KLAX...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
16Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LLWS AND MDT UDDF THIS
MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. EXPECT LLWS AND
MDT UDDF THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 221152
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VALLEY FOG WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE, HOWEVER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL
APPROACH 9 FEET MONDAY. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY,
INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RANGE FROM MVFR ALL THE WAY TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH, PARTS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO IMPROVE. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE BREEZE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11-13 FT. THE 0445Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED OUR
OUTER WATERS. IT SHOWED WINDS OF 10-15 KT, WHICH WAS GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 KT OF OUR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE WESTERLY SWELL. WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE/ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS THIS PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY
INCREASE. THE CONS MODEL SHOWS GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG GALE,
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 24 HOURS AGO. BUT THE GFS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SOME AREAS A WHOPPING 10-20 KT
HIGHER. WHILE THIS SEEMS OVERDONE, DID BUMP UP THE CONS MODEL
WINDS AS THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE FIERCEST WINDS. PLUS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE GL.A`S WITH THIS PACKAGE,
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRONG GALES OR POSSIBLY STORM
FORCE GUSTS IF THE MODELS KEEP TRENDING HIGHER. MUST NOTE THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WON`T BE AS HIGH
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS COULD
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 221152
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VALLEY FOG WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE, HOWEVER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL
APPROACH 9 FEET MONDAY. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY,
INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RANGE FROM MVFR ALL THE WAY TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH, PARTS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO IMPROVE. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE BREEZE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11-13 FT. THE 0445Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED OUR
OUTER WATERS. IT SHOWED WINDS OF 10-15 KT, WHICH WAS GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 KT OF OUR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE WESTERLY SWELL. WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE/ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS THIS PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY
INCREASE. THE CONS MODEL SHOWS GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG GALE,
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 24 HOURS AGO. BUT THE GFS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SOME AREAS A WHOPPING 10-20 KT
HIGHER. WHILE THIS SEEMS OVERDONE, DID BUMP UP THE CONS MODEL
WINDS AS THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE FIERCEST WINDS. PLUS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE GL.A`S WITH THIS PACKAGE,
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRONG GALES OR POSSIBLY STORM
FORCE GUSTS IF THE MODELS KEEP TRENDING HIGHER. MUST NOTE THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WON`T BE AS HIGH
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS COULD
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 221152
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VALLEY FOG WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE, HOWEVER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL
APPROACH 9 FEET MONDAY. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY,
INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RANGE FROM MVFR ALL THE WAY TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH, PARTS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO IMPROVE. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE BREEZE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11-13 FT. THE 0445Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED OUR
OUTER WATERS. IT SHOWED WINDS OF 10-15 KT, WHICH WAS GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 KT OF OUR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE WESTERLY SWELL. WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE/ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS THIS PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY
INCREASE. THE CONS MODEL SHOWS GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG GALE,
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 24 HOURS AGO. BUT THE GFS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SOME AREAS A WHOPPING 10-20 KT
HIGHER. WHILE THIS SEEMS OVERDONE, DID BUMP UP THE CONS MODEL
WINDS AS THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE FIERCEST WINDS. PLUS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE GL.A`S WITH THIS PACKAGE,
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRONG GALES OR POSSIBLY STORM
FORCE GUSTS IF THE MODELS KEEP TRENDING HIGHER. MUST NOTE THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WON`T BE AS HIGH
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS COULD
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 221152
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VALLEY FOG WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE, HOWEVER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL
APPROACH 9 FEET MONDAY. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY,
INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RANGE FROM MVFR ALL THE WAY TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH, PARTS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO IMPROVE. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE BREEZE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11-13 FT. THE 0445Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED OUR
OUTER WATERS. IT SHOWED WINDS OF 10-15 KT, WHICH WAS GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 KT OF OUR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE WESTERLY SWELL. WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE/ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS THIS PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY
INCREASE. THE CONS MODEL SHOWS GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG GALE,
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 24 HOURS AGO. BUT THE GFS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SOME AREAS A WHOPPING 10-20 KT
HIGHER. WHILE THIS SEEMS OVERDONE, DID BUMP UP THE CONS MODEL
WINDS AS THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE FIERCEST WINDS. PLUS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE GL.A`S WITH THIS PACKAGE,
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRONG GALES OR POSSIBLY STORM
FORCE GUSTS IF THE MODELS KEEP TRENDING HIGHER. MUST NOTE THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WON`T BE AS HIGH
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS COULD
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 221146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
A STANDING MTN WAVE BROKE OVER THE MTNS LAST NIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
SPEED WINDS FROM THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REACH THE SFC.
80 TO 90 MPH GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT SOME MTN RIDGETOP SENSORS. THE
WAVE DISIPATED AROUND 200 AM AND WINDS SUBSIDED TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES WHICH
WILL LAST UNTIL MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AN ASTERISK NEXT TO THE SUNNY
SKIES AS THE PLENTY OF SAN JOAQUIN VLY CLOUDS ARE BUTTED UP AGAINST
THE NORTH SLOPES AND HAVE SPILLED INTO THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE
CUYAMA VLY...THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED. MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME NE WINDS FOR AVALON
HARBOR TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BRING WEATHER THE REST OF THE NATION WILL ENVY. SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
THOMPSON RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANOTHER NICE DAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE THE CASE AS TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR. THE
GRADIENTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE UPPER WIND SUPPORT IS MUCH LESS
SO THE CHC OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEMS MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
A FAST MOVING INSIDE SLIDER ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS. IT
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA...EXCEPT ON THE NORTH
SLOPES WHERE IT WILL SCOOP UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HGTS FALL AND THE
SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE. THESE TWO THINGS WILL COMBINE TO
SHARPLY REDUCE TEMPS AND MOST CSTL AND VLY TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 60S.

A WEEK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO BLO NORMAL.

ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/1140Z

AT 1045Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER BUT THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WITH A TOP OF 4400 FEET AND A TEMP OF 20 CELSIUS.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

22/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ISSUED ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL BY MID MORNING.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NRN INNER WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TUE MORNING FROM VENTURA OR OXNARD
THROUGH SANTA MONICA AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL DUE
TO GUSTY NE WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SEAS AS
WELL.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO
FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THICKER CIRRUS
CLEARS DURING THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND PREVAILING
DIRECTIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WHILE THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A E/NE DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY LOCALLY CAUSE PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS...OR FREQUENTLY SHIFTING LIGHTS WINDS AT KPHX
OPPOSITE THE EXPECTED GRADIENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY THINNING
CIRRUS. VARIABLE SFC WINDS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT
KBLH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CAUSE MUCH
STRONGER NLY WINDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. UNDER DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE AS LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION HUMIDITIES
ONLY FALL INTO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIMITED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 221138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO
FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THICKER CIRRUS
CLEARS DURING THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND PREVAILING
DIRECTIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WHILE THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A E/NE DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY LOCALLY CAUSE PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS...OR FREQUENTLY SHIFTING LIGHTS WINDS AT KPHX
OPPOSITE THE EXPECTED GRADIENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY THINNING
CIRRUS. VARIABLE SFC WINDS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT
KBLH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CAUSE MUCH
STRONGER NLY WINDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. UNDER DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE AS LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION HUMIDITIES
ONLY FALL INTO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIMITED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 221138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO
FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THICKER CIRRUS
CLEARS DURING THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND PREVAILING
DIRECTIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WHILE THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A E/NE DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY LOCALLY CAUSE PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS...OR FREQUENTLY SHIFTING LIGHTS WINDS AT KPHX
OPPOSITE THE EXPECTED GRADIENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY THINNING
CIRRUS. VARIABLE SFC WINDS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT
KBLH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CAUSE MUCH
STRONGER NLY WINDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. UNDER DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE AS LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION HUMIDITIES
ONLY FALL INTO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIMITED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 221138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO
FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THICKER CIRRUS
CLEARS DURING THE PERIOD. TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND PREVAILING
DIRECTIONS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. WHILE THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A E/NE DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY LOCALLY CAUSE PERIODS OF
VARIABLE WINDS...OR FREQUENTLY SHIFTING LIGHTS WINDS AT KPHX
OPPOSITE THE EXPECTED GRADIENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY THINNING
CIRRUS. VARIABLE SFC WINDS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR A NW DIRECTION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AT
KBLH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CAUSE MUCH
STRONGER NLY WINDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEAVING ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. UNDER DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE AS LOWER ELEVATION AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION HUMIDITIES
ONLY FALL INTO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIMITED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 221137
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221105Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-5SM
IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLEAR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND
MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT AND
KSNA.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
310 AM...A DECREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
SURF TODAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A REINFORCING
LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 221137
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221105Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-5SM
IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLEAR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND
MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT AND
KSNA.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
310 AM...A DECREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
SURF TODAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A REINFORCING
LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 221137
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221105Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-5SM
IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLEAR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND
MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT AND
KSNA.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
310 AM...A DECREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
SURF TODAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A REINFORCING
LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 221137
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221105Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-5SM
IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLEAR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND
MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT AND
KSNA.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
310 AM...A DECREASING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
SURF TODAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A REINFORCING
LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









000
FXUS66 KMTR 221123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHES PAST THE AREA BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST MONDAY...MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST THUS FAR
HOWEVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BUCKET TIPS OF DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND THE BAY SHORE. PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...ALSO CALLED
KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
YESTERDAY SAW SOME ISSUES INCLUDING ROADS CLOSED IN FREQUENT
TROUBLE SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY AND WATER LAPPING ONTO THE
EMBARCADERO IN SAN FRANCISCO. THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE
HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE
A COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN INSIDE SLIDER DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HAVE MORE
PRECIP INTO THE DISTRICT HOWEVER THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME
INTENSITY. NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH FOR SAN FRANCISCO IT IS STILL
AROUND 10 PERCENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTH BAY AND FAR EAST BAY AS THE SYSTEM GOES BY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT
SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLER AIRMASS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 30S.

RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. FOG WILL FORM UNDER INCREASING AIR MASS
STABILITY. FORECAST INCLUDES IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:01 AM PST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 221123
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHES PAST THE AREA BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST MONDAY...MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE REGION
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST THUS FAR
HOWEVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BUCKET TIPS OF DRIZZLE AS
WELL...MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND THE BAY SHORE. PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES...ALSO CALLED
KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
YESTERDAY SAW SOME ISSUES INCLUDING ROADS CLOSED IN FREQUENT
TROUBLE SPOTS IN THE NORTH BAY AND WATER LAPPING ONTO THE
EMBARCADERO IN SAN FRANCISCO. THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE
HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE
A COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN INSIDE SLIDER DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HAVE MORE
PRECIP INTO THE DISTRICT HOWEVER THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME
INTENSITY. NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH FOR SAN FRANCISCO IT IS STILL
AROUND 10 PERCENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTH BAY AND FAR EAST BAY AS THE SYSTEM GOES BY HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT
SO THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLER AIRMASS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN NORTH BAY VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 30S.

RIDGING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. FOG WILL FORM UNDER INCREASING AIR MASS
STABILITY. FORECAST INCLUDES IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:01 AM PST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 221100
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS HAVE
BEEN AIDING IN MIXING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
TIGHT FROM THE SIERRA INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX AS JET ENERGY DIPS INTO TEXAS. STILL, ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
MINERAL COUNTY WHICH MORE EASILY BECOMES BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HAWTHORNE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS GENERALLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS BECOME FAIRLY BENIGN BY TUESDAY WITH SLOWER WINDS
RESULTING IN LESS MIXING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CHRISTMAS EVE...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO WEDNESDAY AS A MUCH COLDER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. DUE TO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED BLOWING DUST FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THROUGH MINERAL AND EASTERN MONO COUNTIES.

ASIDE FROM WINDS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN TO
MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS. ENDED UP LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 5000 FEET AS THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS PROJECTED TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, THE CHARACTER WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAVIER RATES WILL DRAG SNOW
LEVELS DOWN BELOW 4500 FEET. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
5000 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR
WESTERN NEVADA.

UNCERTAINTY WITH CHARACTER AND AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH
SINCE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM ONE
ANOTHER AND FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THIS IS KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF THAT THERE WILL BE
A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS SINCE THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN
DOWN THE CASCADES OUT OF OREGON. THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE SIERRA
WILL BE FAVORED MORE FOR PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN WESTERN NEVADA
WHICH WOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SHADOWED. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD AS WELL, SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS
SCENARIO VERIFIES, THEN TRAVEL OVER SIERRA PASSES COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY, SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN MUCH WETTER WITH THE MORE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. HAVE UPPED QPF ALONG THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN
ZONES QUITE A BIT WITH AT LEAST 0.5" LIQUID TOTALS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. THE GFS HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED FROM A VERY DRY SOLUTION
TO OVER AN INCH OF QPF WHILE THE EC IS MORE MODEST AROUND O.66";
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT EC. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A VERY CHILLY
NORTH WIND AND A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FOR THE SIERRA. MOUNTAIN TOP TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS MORNING SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BLOCKING PATTEN DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ALONG 140W. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT OF THE
BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES IS POOR. LATEST 00Z RUNS SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG 140W, WITH A COUPLE COLD SYSTEMS DROPPING INTO
THE REGION FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BE PINCHED NORTHWARD, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR WARMER SYSTEMS TO PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA OFF
THE PACIFIC. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

DECREASING WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE WINDS MAY HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY, WITH BUMPY APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
WIND EVENT. LATEST MODELS SHOW SURFACE GUSTS TO 50 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ALONG WITH GOOD MOUNTAIN
WAVE SIGNATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
EVE, WHICH MAY BRING A ROUND OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 221100
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS HAVE
BEEN AIDING IN MIXING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
TIGHT FROM THE SIERRA INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY RELAX AS JET ENERGY DIPS INTO TEXAS. STILL, ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
MINERAL COUNTY WHICH MORE EASILY BECOMES BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HAWTHORNE WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS GENERALLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH TODAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS BECOME FAIRLY BENIGN BY TUESDAY WITH SLOWER WINDS
RESULTING IN LESS MIXING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CHRISTMAS EVE...THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO WEDNESDAY AS A MUCH COLDER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. DUE TO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED BLOWING DUST FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THROUGH MINERAL AND EASTERN MONO COUNTIES.

ASIDE FROM WINDS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN TO
MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS. ENDED UP LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 5000 FEET AS THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS PROJECTED TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, THE CHARACTER WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAVIER RATES WILL DRAG SNOW
LEVELS DOWN BELOW 4500 FEET. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO
5000 FEET WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4500 FEET FOR
WESTERN NEVADA.

UNCERTAINTY WITH CHARACTER AND AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH
SINCE SHORT TO MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM ONE
ANOTHER AND FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THIS IS KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF THAT THERE WILL BE
A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS SINCE THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN
DOWN THE CASCADES OUT OF OREGON. THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE SIERRA
WILL BE FAVORED MORE FOR PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN WESTERN NEVADA
WHICH WOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SHADOWED. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD AS WELL, SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS
SCENARIO VERIFIES, THEN TRAVEL OVER SIERRA PASSES COULD BE MORE
IMPACTED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY, SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN MUCH WETTER WITH THE MORE
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. HAVE UPPED QPF ALONG THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN
ZONES QUITE A BIT WITH AT LEAST 0.5" LIQUID TOTALS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. THE GFS HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED FROM A VERY DRY SOLUTION
TO OVER AN INCH OF QPF WHILE THE EC IS MORE MODEST AROUND O.66";
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT EC. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A VERY CHILLY
NORTH WIND AND A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S FOR THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH UPPER 20S TO MID
30S FOR THE SIERRA. MOUNTAIN TOP TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS MORNING SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BLOCKING PATTEN DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ALONG 140W. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT OF THE
BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES IS POOR. LATEST 00Z RUNS SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG 140W, WITH A COUPLE COLD SYSTEMS DROPPING INTO
THE REGION FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BE PINCHED NORTHWARD, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR WARMER SYSTEMS TO PUSH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA OFF
THE PACIFIC. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

DECREASING WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE WINDS MAY HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY, WITH BUMPY APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
WIND EVENT. LATEST MODELS SHOW SURFACE GUSTS TO 50 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ALONG WITH GOOD MOUNTAIN
WAVE SIGNATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
EVE, WHICH MAY BRING A ROUND OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TIME LAST NIGHT MUCH OF THE VALLEY WAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG...WHERE AS NOW THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPERIENCING DRIZZLE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
OUT OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...HANFORD...SELMA...AND FARMERSVILLE PICKED UP 0.01" AS FAR
AS VALLEY LOCATIONS GO. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS PICKED UP GENERALLY BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE
HRRR INDICATE THAT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z...IF NOT UNTIL 21Z.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT GENERALLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TULARE COUNTY
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS
FORMING IN KERN COUNTY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BOTH ON TIMING AND LOCATION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHIFTED THE PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
RUNS. ADDITIONALLY...NCEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES VERY
LOW PREDICABILITY GENERALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY...THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION KEEPS SHIFTING THE CHANCES NORTH RUN
AFTER RUN...ADDING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
SLOPES....WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN MIST/HAZE ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z MON. ALSO
EXPECT SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z MON.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990
KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990

KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 220923
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
223 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN
SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 220923
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
223 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN
SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 220923
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
223 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN
SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 220923
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
223 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY...AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER...WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSISTING FROM LAST EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK IN
COVERAGE AND THIN AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG PACIFIC RIDGING...CENTERED
AROUND 130W/30N THIS MORNING. SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO
COLUMN...ABOUT 5 C OR SO...AND LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME
WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON THAN THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF PROFILE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. LOW 580DM RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
EVENTUALLY EXPANDS INTO WESTERN CANADA/PAC NW BY TUESDAY.

BROAD AREA OF JET ENERGY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...TRIGGERING THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...AND WORKING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN POINT
FOR THIS FRONT...EXPECT A FAIR BIT OF SFC DEWPOINT DRYING IN ITS
WAKE. AFTN DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
HOLDING ALONG AND OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
INTRUSION...ELEVATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION. TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALIGN DOWN THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEARING 35
MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WINDS WON`T BE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL NOTICEABLY BREEZY COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. COOLER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE DESERTS AND MID 50S FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS DAY/ THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE SET-UP. 00Z SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
PLOT THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE A BIT DEEPER AND FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS AZ LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THESE SOLNS EVEN
PAINT SOME THICKER CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS IS DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OFF THE SOCAL COAST AND BAJA CA. FCST PWAT VALUES ATTM
AREN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MOSTLY SHY OF 0.70 INCH. UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AS UNSETTLED BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW.

TOWARDS THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY BUT POTENTLY COLDER SYSTEM
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
COULD BE IN FOR A SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN
SOME OF OUR COOLEST NIGHTS OBSERVED SO FAR THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS66 KHNX 220751
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1151 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN AND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
18Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES. OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 220751
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1151 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN AND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
18Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES. OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 220751
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1151 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN AND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH
18Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR
IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING SLOPES. OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 220618
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD
FORMATION SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS)
AND SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION
TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS
OF 8 PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -7.1 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT
59 MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0610Z...
AT 0550Z...THERE WAS A VERY WEAK SURFACE BEACHED INVERSION WITH A
A TOP OF 5300 FEET AND A TEMP OF 19 CELSIUS.

LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MON MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
N OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH LOCAL LIFR
CONDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND VLYS OF SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES. SOME
MVFR CONDS IN VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY.
GUSTY N WINDS IN THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND VLYS OF SBA...VTU AND
L.A. COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LLWS AND
STG UDDF. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED AND SHIFT TO THE NE MON
MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT N
WINDS WILL EXCEED 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
MDT LLWS IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 13Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LLWS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 13Z...WITH STG UDDF NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KSTO 220558
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
958 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog.
There is a chance another system may affect the region Wednesday
into early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog beginning to form over the area this evening.
Although...just enough winds have continued along with a few
patches of clouds to keep the fog from becoming widespread. Fog
will be densest overnight where winds diminish and skies clear.
North winds will increase after 10 am Monday. This will likely mix
out the fog by noon with sunny skies possible during the
afternoon. Current forecast handles this well and no evening
update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Expect most locations to again deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with local
LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops. Expect most
locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 220558
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
958 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog.
There is a chance another system may affect the region Wednesday
into early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog beginning to form over the area this evening.
Although...just enough winds have continued along with a few
patches of clouds to keep the fog from becoming widespread. Fog
will be densest overnight where winds diminish and skies clear.
North winds will increase after 10 am Monday. This will likely mix
out the fog by noon with sunny skies possible during the
afternoon. Current forecast handles this well and no evening
update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Expect most locations to again deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with local
LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops. Expect most
locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 220558
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
958 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog.
There is a chance another system may affect the region Wednesday
into early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog beginning to form over the area this evening.
Although...just enough winds have continued along with a few
patches of clouds to keep the fog from becoming widespread. Fog
will be densest overnight where winds diminish and skies clear.
North winds will increase after 10 am Monday. This will likely mix
out the fog by noon with sunny skies possible during the
afternoon. Current forecast handles this well and no evening
update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Expect most locations to again deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with local
LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops. Expect most
locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 220558
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
958 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry through Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog.
There is a chance another system may affect the region Wednesday
into early Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog beginning to form over the area this evening.
Although...just enough winds have continued along with a few
patches of clouds to keep the fog from becoming widespread. Fog
will be densest overnight where winds diminish and skies clear.
North winds will increase after 10 am Monday. This will likely mix
out the fog by noon with sunny skies possible during the
afternoon. Current forecast handles this well and no evening
update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Expect most locations to again deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with local
LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops. Expect most
locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KHNX 220536
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
936 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS
ADDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT AND HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN ENHANCED
UPSLOPE AREAS...ARE MEASURING UP TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIP. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEEM TO MAKE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG LESS LIKELY. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHICH BEGINS
AT MIDNIGHT IS THUS BEING CAREFULLY EVALUATED. MODELS MOVE THE
VERY WEAK PVA OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONDITIONS MAY YET STABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BECOMING PREVALENT IN
FOG BETWEEN 06Z MON AND 12Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS
OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING
SLOPES. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 22 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...BEAN
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 220535 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. GUSTS
WERE STILL AROUND 50 MPH NEAR CEDARVILLE AT MID EVENING WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE
ARE GOING TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, WE DID BUMP UP WINDS
A BIT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO REFLECT A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT.
UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY.
HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND
SNOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220535 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. GUSTS
WERE STILL AROUND 50 MPH NEAR CEDARVILLE AT MID EVENING WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE
ARE GOING TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, WE DID BUMP UP WINDS
A BIT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO REFLECT A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT.
UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY.
HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND
SNOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220535 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. GUSTS
WERE STILL AROUND 50 MPH NEAR CEDARVILLE AT MID EVENING WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE
ARE GOING TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, WE DID BUMP UP WINDS
A BIT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO REFLECT A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT.
UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY.
HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND
SNOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220535 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONG THIS EVENING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. GUSTS
WERE STILL AROUND 50 MPH NEAR CEDARVILLE AT MID EVENING WHILE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS HAD DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE
ARE GOING TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, WE DID BUMP UP WINDS
A BIT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO REFLECT A SLOWER IMPROVEMENT.
UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY.
HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND
SNOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS66 KMTR 220509
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE A DEEP...MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS COVERS THE DISTRICT. ASIDE
FROM SOME LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG ARE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ALSO...HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TAIL END OF A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK...AND USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
REMARKABLY MILD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST EVENING OF
WINTER. THE 8 PM READING OF 59 DEG AT OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE IS A REMARKABLE 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
BUILDING STRONGLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ASIDE FROM SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
HAVE JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION
OF SHOWER CHANCES...BUT RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE AND
EXTENDED THAT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY LOCALLY GETTING PRETTY RESTRICTED. A
RECENT SPOTTER REPORT FROM REDWOOD ESTATES...AT AN ELEVATION OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET ALONG HIGHWAY 17...ESTIMATED VISIBILITY WAS DOWN
TO APPROX 300 FEET. AND THE 04Z METARS FROM KWVI AND KSTS HAVE IT
AT 1/4 MILE AND 3/4 MILE RESPECTIVELY. IN THE UPDATE THEN ALSO
ADDED IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND OBSERVED VALUES TODAY.

WILL ALSO NOTE THAT JUST RECEIVED NEW 00Z OUTPUT FROM THE GFS HAS
RAMPED UP A BIT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT. BUT ESPECIALLY AS THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL ALL NEW MODEL DATA ARE IN.

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT
8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. FOG WILL FORM UNDER INCREASING AIR MASS
STABILITY. FORECAST INCLUDES IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220509
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE A DEEP...MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS COVERS THE DISTRICT. ASIDE
FROM SOME LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG ARE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ALSO...HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TAIL END OF A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK...AND USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
REMARKABLY MILD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST EVENING OF
WINTER. THE 8 PM READING OF 59 DEG AT OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE IS A REMARKABLE 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
BUILDING STRONGLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ASIDE FROM SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
HAVE JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION
OF SHOWER CHANCES...BUT RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE AND
EXTENDED THAT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY LOCALLY GETTING PRETTY RESTRICTED. A
RECENT SPOTTER REPORT FROM REDWOOD ESTATES...AT AN ELEVATION OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET ALONG HIGHWAY 17...ESTIMATED VISIBILITY WAS DOWN
TO APPROX 300 FEET. AND THE 04Z METARS FROM KWVI AND KSTS HAVE IT
AT 1/4 MILE AND 3/4 MILE RESPECTIVELY. IN THE UPDATE THEN ALSO
ADDED IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND OBSERVED VALUES TODAY.

WILL ALSO NOTE THAT JUST RECEIVED NEW 00Z OUTPUT FROM THE GFS HAS
RAMPED UP A BIT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT. BUT ESPECIALLY AS THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL ALL NEW MODEL DATA ARE IN.

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT
8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:07 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. FOG WILL FORM UNDER INCREASING AIR MASS
STABILITY. FORECAST INCLUDES IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 220444
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
844 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING FAIR...VERY DRY...AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS BELOW
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FEW IF ANY
LOWER...MARINE CLOUDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE TURNING
OFFSHORE FROM NV AT 4-5 MBS...BUT REMAINED VERY WEAK ONSHORE TO THE
LOWER DESERTS. A FEW REMOTE SITES IN THE SANTA ANA/SAN BERNARDINO
MTS WERE SHOWING NE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AT 8 PM PST. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD WINDS WEST BELOW 7K FT AND NW ABOVE...
BUT WARMING WAS INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH ALMOST 10
DEGREE C OF WARMING IN THE 900 MB LAYER.

THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THIN ON MON AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TURN OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MEAN FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER DAYS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TURN BACK ONSHORE AND IT WILL BE COOLER AS THE MARINE LAYER REBUILDS
WEST OF THE MTS.

A STRONG 594 DM HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED AT 30N/130W THIS
EVENING. WINDS CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH ARE STEERING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THE HIGH BUILDS
A RIDGE NE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
BE FLATTENED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WED. THIS FEATURE WILL
DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT/THU...WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AND TURNING WINDS BACK ONSHORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT
SOME COOLING AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS...OTHERWISE DRY.

THE COOLER WEATHER SHOULD LINGER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND UNDER DRY...NW FLOW ALOFT.

WINDS...A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE MON THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD
INLAND...WITH MODERATE SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN
MAINLY FAVORS AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA MTN CANYONS
FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 55 MPH. BUT BASED ON HIRES MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS...STRONG GUSTS MAY SURFACE ON TUE ALONG WIND PRONE FOOTHILL
AREAS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS AS WELL. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...
MOST WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS MON/TUE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
WIND WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON...AND INDICATIONS ARE THEY
MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG ON THE DESERT SLOPES AND THROUGH THE PASSES
WED NIGHT/THU.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE OUR WET PATTERN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WANT TO REESTABLISH MORE OF
A MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WITH A DEEP CONTINENTAL
TROUGH AND SHARP EASTPAC RIDGE. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL MODEL
RUNS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WITH A MOIST SUBTROPICAL TAP TOWARD THE
END OF THE MONTH...BUT SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE NOT SUPPORTED IT.
ASSUMING THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN HOLDS...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS...LESS MARINE LAYER DAYS...AND FAIR SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
OFFSHORE FLOW INTO NEW YEARS DAY UNDER COOL...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PERHAPS A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME NEXT YEAR...BUT FOR NOW...
CONSENSUS IS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER THE FIRST
OF THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR BY
09Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND MON...REACHING MAXIMUM STRENGTH MON NIGHT/TUE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS BEFORE WEAKENING ON WED. MAXIMUM GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 55
MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN VERY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT TUE/WED. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG









000
FXUS66 KSGX 220444
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
844 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING FAIR...VERY DRY...AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS BELOW
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FEW IF ANY
LOWER...MARINE CLOUDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE TURNING
OFFSHORE FROM NV AT 4-5 MBS...BUT REMAINED VERY WEAK ONSHORE TO THE
LOWER DESERTS. A FEW REMOTE SITES IN THE SANTA ANA/SAN BERNARDINO
MTS WERE SHOWING NE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AT 8 PM PST. THE 00Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD WINDS WEST BELOW 7K FT AND NW ABOVE...
BUT WARMING WAS INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH ALMOST 10
DEGREE C OF WARMING IN THE 900 MB LAYER.

THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THIN ON MON AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TURN OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MEAN FAIR...DRY AND
WARMER DAYS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TURN BACK ONSHORE AND IT WILL BE COOLER AS THE MARINE LAYER REBUILDS
WEST OF THE MTS.

A STRONG 594 DM HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED AT 30N/130W THIS
EVENING. WINDS CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH ARE STEERING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AS THE HIGH BUILDS
A RIDGE NE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
BE FLATTENED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON WED. THIS FEATURE WILL
DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT/THU...WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT AND TURNING WINDS BACK ONSHORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT
SOME COOLING AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS...OTHERWISE DRY.

THE COOLER WEATHER SHOULD LINGER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND UNDER DRY...NW FLOW ALOFT.

WINDS...A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE MON THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD
INLAND...WITH MODERATE SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN
MAINLY FAVORS AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA MTN CANYONS
FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 55 MPH. BUT BASED ON HIRES MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS...STRONG GUSTS MAY SURFACE ON TUE ALONG WIND PRONE FOOTHILL
AREAS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS AS WELL. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...
MOST WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS MON/TUE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
WIND WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON...AND INDICATIONS ARE THEY
MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG ON THE DESERT SLOPES AND THROUGH THE PASSES
WED NIGHT/THU.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE OUR WET PATTERN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WANT TO REESTABLISH MORE OF
A MERIDIONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WITH A DEEP CONTINENTAL
TROUGH AND SHARP EASTPAC RIDGE. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL MODEL
RUNS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WITH A MOIST SUBTROPICAL TAP TOWARD THE
END OF THE MONTH...BUT SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE NOT SUPPORTED IT.
ASSUMING THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN HOLDS...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS...LESS MARINE LAYER DAYS...AND FAIR SKIES WITH PERIODS OF
OFFSHORE FLOW INTO NEW YEARS DAY UNDER COOL...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
PERHAPS A WETTER PATTERN WILL RESUME NEXT YEAR...BUT FOR NOW...
CONSENSUS IS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER THE FIRST
OF THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR BY
09Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND MON...REACHING MAXIMUM STRENGTH MON NIGHT/TUE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS BEFORE WEAKENING ON WED. MAXIMUM GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 55
MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
MEAN VERY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT TUE/WED. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG










000
FXUS66 KMTR 220435
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE A DEEP...MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS COVERS THE DISTRICT. ASIDE
FROM SOME LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG ARE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ALSO...HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TAIL END OF A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK...AND USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
REMARKABLY MILD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST EVENING OF
WINTER. THE 8 PM READING OF 59 DEG AT OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE IS A REMARKABLE 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
BUILDING STRONGLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ASIDE FROM SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
HAVE JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION
OF SHOWER CHANCES...BUT RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE AND
EXTENDED THAT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY LOCALLY GETTING PRETTY RESTRICTED. A
RECENT SPOTTER REPORT FROM REDWOOD ESTATES...AT AN ELEVATION OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET ALONG HIGHWAY 17...ESTIMATED VISIBILITY WAS DOWN
TO APPROX 300 FEET. AND THE 04Z METARS FROM KWVI AND KSTS HAVE IT
AT 1/4 MILE AND 3/4 MILE RESPECTIVELY. IN THE UPDATE THEN ALSO
ADDED IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND OBSERVED VALUES TODAY.

WILL ALSO NOTE THAT JUST RECEIVED NEW 00Z OUTPUT FROM THE GFS HAS
RAMPED UP A BIT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT. BUT ESPECIALLY AS THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL ALL NEW MODEL DATA ARE IN.

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT
8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:57 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. THERE`S PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH
CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILING PRESENTLY REPORTED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR...BUT LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 220435
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WHILE A DEEP...MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS COVERS THE DISTRICT. ASIDE
FROM SOME LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG ARE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ALSO...HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL
RESULT IN POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A TAIL END OF A STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK...AND USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 PM PST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
REMARKABLY MILD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST EVENING OF
WINTER. THE 8 PM READING OF 59 DEG AT OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE IS A REMARKABLE 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
BUILDING STRONGLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ASIDE FROM SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE.
HAVE JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION
OF SHOWER CHANCES...BUT RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE AND
EXTENDED THAT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE NOTED THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY LOCALLY GETTING PRETTY RESTRICTED. A
RECENT SPOTTER REPORT FROM REDWOOD ESTATES...AT AN ELEVATION OF
ABOUT 1500 FEET ALONG HIGHWAY 17...ESTIMATED VISIBILITY WAS DOWN
TO APPROX 300 FEET. AND THE 04Z METARS FROM KWVI AND KSTS HAVE IT
AT 1/4 MILE AND 3/4 MILE RESPECTIVELY. IN THE UPDATE THEN ALSO
ADDED IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND OBSERVED VALUES TODAY.

WILL ALSO NOTE THAT JUST RECEIVED NEW 00Z OUTPUT FROM THE GFS HAS
RAMPED UP A BIT ON BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR DISTRICT. BUT ESPECIALLY AS THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL ALL NEW MODEL DATA ARE IN.

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT
8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:57 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. THERE`S PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH
CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILING PRESENTLY REPORTED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR...BUT LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER/BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 220428
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS OF 8
PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -7.1 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT 59
MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 220427
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS OF 7
PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -6.6 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT 59
MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 220427
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS OF 7
PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -6.6 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT 59
MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 220427
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS OF 7
PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -6.6 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT 59
MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 220427
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EVIDENT BY THE PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD FORMATION
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS (35-50 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS OF 7
PM...LAX-BAKERSFIELD WAS AN IMPRESSIVE -7.0 MB WHILE SANTA
BARBARA-BAKERSFIELD WAS -6.6 MB.

WITH THIS KIND OF NORTHERLY WIND EVENT...THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS
ARE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN LOS ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND REPORTS FROM THESE AREAS WITH WHITAKER
PEAK SHOWING A PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 77 MPH...SANDBERG AND CAMP NINE AT 59
MPH...AND MONTECITO HILLS AT 69 MPH. AS A RESULT...UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES/VENTURA/SBA
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO SURFACE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
AND NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE VALLEYS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST. DUE TO THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
CONDITION...EVEN LAKE CASITAS HAS SEEN RARE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 47 MPH. OTHER NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING
INCLUDE PORTER RANCH AT 53 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 41 MPH...GETTY CENTER
AT 49 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO AT 48 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...WITH FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WINDS BECOMING SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BY MONDAY MORNING.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 673/676. THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/800 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH/GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS65 KPSR 220319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM TRACK CONTINUED TO CUT DIAGONALLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FROM WASHINGTON SOUTHEAST TO COLORADO AND NORTH TEXAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER AZ THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL THIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG
DISTURBANCE FROM IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH INTO COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT
AND NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO EASTERN AZ BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND GENERATE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE THE TONIGHT
PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...315 PM MST...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 220319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM TRACK CONTINUED TO CUT DIAGONALLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES FROM WASHINGTON SOUTHEAST TO COLORADO AND NORTH TEXAS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER AZ THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL THIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG
DISTURBANCE FROM IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH INTO COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT
AND NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO EASTERN AZ BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND GENERATE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE THE TONIGHT
PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...315 PM MST...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN










000
FXUS66 KLOX 220010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 220010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 220010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 220010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
410 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0000Z...

AT 2330Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 2100 FEET WITH A TOP OF
5100 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OVERALL
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB WHERE VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
10Z-18Z. THE TIMING THERE MAY DIFFER BY 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES.
LLWS/TURBULENCE EXPECTED FOR KSBA AND KBUR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...STRONGEST AT KSBA.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. MVFR VSBY MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST WITH A 20% CHANCE
THAT LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 212359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
359 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...MOIST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS HOUR WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS OF 55
TO 60 AND RH READINGS OF 80 TO 95 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWS QUITE A FEW SPOTS IN OUR AREA
REPORTING TIPS. DECIDED TO JUST DO A MINOR GRID UPDATE TO ADD
DRIZZLE TO ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND
FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT 8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:57 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. THERE`S PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH
CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILING PRESENTLY REPORTED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR...BUT LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 212359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
359 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...MOIST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS HOUR WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS OF 55
TO 60 AND RH READINGS OF 80 TO 95 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWS QUITE A FEW SPOTS IN OUR AREA
REPORTING TIPS. DECIDED TO JUST DO A MINOR GRID UPDATE TO ADD
DRIZZLE TO ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND
FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT 8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:57 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. THERE`S PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH
CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILING PRESENTLY REPORTED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR...BUT LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 212359
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
359 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...MOIST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS HOUR WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS OF 55
TO 60 AND RH READINGS OF 80 TO 95 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWS QUITE A FEW SPOTS IN OUR AREA
REPORTING TIPS. DECIDED TO JUST DO A MINOR GRID UPDATE TO ADD
DRIZZLE TO ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND
FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT 8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:57 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER NORCAL DURING THE PERIOD. THERE`S PLENTY OF LEFTOVER SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH
CLEARING ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CEILING PRESENTLY REPORTED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR 03Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY IFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR...BUT LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 212320
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE E PAC. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SW-W FACING TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR RIVER INFO.

SKIES MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY ON MON...ALTHO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MAY RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO
SUNSET. REDUCED CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND
MOISTURE WILL LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP...BUT AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. /SEC

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT
ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RUN HIGH EARLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE COAST LATE MONDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 9 FT. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING THE
ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON, CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER
FLOODING. KML

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
RAINFALL DIMINISHES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
AIRFIELDS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, KUKI HAS ALREADY OBSERVED LIFTING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MOST AIRFIELDS TO THE
NORTH WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
HOWEVER MORE SO IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 18Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INDICATING THAT THE WIND
FORECAST WAS AND REMAINS ON TRACK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
NOSING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A LARGE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE SEA
STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THEN,
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS THE GRADIENT. THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT WILL POTENTIALLY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

BEYOND THAT MODELS HINT AT A BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KML

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SMITH RIVER APPEARS TO HAVE CRESTED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...REMAINING SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
RISES ON THE MAD RIVER AT ARCATA HAVE SLOWED WITH A CREST LIKELY
SOON. AGAIN...THIS IS SEVERAL FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM TUE FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KHNX 212305
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BECOMING PREVALENT IN
FOG BETWEEN 06Z MON AND 12Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS
OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING
SLOPES. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 212305
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON FROM MERCED TO FRESNO...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW PILING UP AGAINST THE TEHACHAPI/GRAPEVINE/
RANGE AS THE FLOW MOVES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ONSHORE. THIS WEAKENING OF THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PILED UP AT THE SOUTH END THE
VALLEY TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG.

WHILE SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CHANGE IS VISIBILITIES
AS FOG AND HAZE DECREASES...THE MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LACK OF CHANGE TRANSLATES IN A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD A ISSUE
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM NEAR MIDNIGHT TO AROUND
1000 AM PST MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN A SOLUTION
THAT STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
MAY SEE SOME CHANGE BY MIDWEEK AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO MOVE AN INSIDE
SLIDER THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE MIDWEEK TROUGH...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND AREAS
NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY. TIMING ISSUES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUT OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE REBUILDS UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. BY
NEXT SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM CLIMO.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT FOR NEAR CLIMO ON DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN
MIST/HAZE AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BECOMING PREVALENT IN
FOG BETWEEN 06Z MON AND 12Z MON. IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS....AREAS
OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR IN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY FACING
SLOPES. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY MORNING
FOR ZONES CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 212246
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
246 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...MOIST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS HOUR WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS OF 55
TO 60 AND RH READINGS OF 80 TO 95 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWS QUITE A FEW SPOTS IN OUR AREA
REPORTING TIPS. DECIDED TO JUST DO A MINOR GRID UPDATE TO ADD
DRIZZLE TO ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND
FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT 8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED LOW
CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY AND SCT OUT BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...YET
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 20Z...YET PREVAILING MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 212246
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
246 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...MOIST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS HOUR WITH MANY SPOTS SEEING DEW POINTS OF 55
TO 60 AND RH READINGS OF 80 TO 95 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...LATEST
ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWS QUITE A FEW SPOTS IN OUR AREA
REPORTING TIPS. DECIDED TO JUST DO A MINOR GRID UPDATE TO ADD
DRIZZLE TO ALL LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING ALONG WITH DRYER CONDITIONS AND
FEWER CLOUDS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
AS 850 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM BY ABOUT 8C TO THE 15-16 RANGE ON
TUESDAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS GOES ACROSS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ALONG WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SKIRTS CLOSE
TO TTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT WITH THE LARGER IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP DUE TO
DRIER AIR. WE WILL LIKELY SEE 30S BACK IN INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OUT TO
JANUARY 4TH. CURRENTLY NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACTING OUR
AREA THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED LOW
CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY AND SCT OUT BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...YET
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 20Z...YET PREVAILING MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS
THROUGH TUESDAY. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL
OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT
KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR
ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KREV 212223
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 212223
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN,
AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS STILL AROUND 50 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STILL STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE WINDS ALOFT WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WITH SOME GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST RENO AND THE RED ROCK AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE FOR EARLY THIS WEEK ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS CAN NOW BE
SEEN SLOWLY BUILDING IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL NOSE EAST
AND PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP/WINDS NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW AT LEAST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FROM TODAY`S NEAR
RECORD TEMPS. TEMPS MAY COOL FURTHER IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AS A
MODERATE INVERSION FORMS AFTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, MTN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS TEMPS ALOFT HOLD STEADY.

MAIN CONCERN THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE A
QUICK MOVER, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH/EAST WHILE THE EC IS DEEPER AND
WETTER. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE EC FOR TWO REASONS. 1)
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. 2) IT HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS THE GFS TO BE A FAST
OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING, THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER
THAN ITS OPERATIONAL RUN.

GIVEN THIS IDEA, HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EC IS SHOWING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
AND ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH 50
KTS AT 700 MB. IF THIS IS TRUE, GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FOR PRECIP, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES
SLIGHTLY AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS A LITTLE WITH THE COLDER IDEA.
MOST PRECIP WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY
SNOW EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL ONLY LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
MANY VALLEYS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GAINING MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z NAM AND GFS
FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SNOW POTENTIAL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE, WE WILL KEEP CHRISTMAS DAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING. IF SNOW
ACCUMULATES OVERNIGHT, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS SOME
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY, DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE COULD BRIEFLY BUILD INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST NEXT
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN COULD
ARRIVE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT AROUND KRNO-KCXP-KMMH WILL DIMINISH
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR KTVL-
KTRK. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THRU 06Z THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
NERN CA-NWRN NV. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF FZFG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK MAINLY BTWN 08-16Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN
WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KPSR 212216 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212216 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTING TO 20 KTS. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH DURING THE HOURS OF STRONGEST WINDS
TO AVOID CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KSTO 212203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
203 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

IFR/MVFR conditions continue across the northern end of the
Valley, with VFR conditions developing generally south of KMYV
this afternoon. Expect most locations to again deteriorate to
IFR/MVFR with local LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops.
Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
203 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

IFR/MVFR conditions continue across the northern end of the
Valley, with VFR conditions developing generally south of KMYV
this afternoon. Expect most locations to again deteriorate to
IFR/MVFR with local LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops.
Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
203 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

IFR/MVFR conditions continue across the northern end of the
Valley, with VFR conditions developing generally south of KMYV
this afternoon. Expect most locations to again deteriorate to
IFR/MVFR with local LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops.
Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212203
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
203 PM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region this evening
but generally any lingering showers will be in the mountains
through tonight. Overcast skies overnight might limit the amount
of valley fog around Sacramento but skies may start to clear
enough by morning where fog may start forming. Some fog is still
being reported in the foothills and mountains and will likely
continue to have some overnight.

A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep
the interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look
like it may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning. The thicker fog for Monday may be limited to the
San Joaquin valley. Tuesday the fog should expand further north
into the Sacramento region.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

On Wednesday a system will approach the region but most models
keep the interior dry except for the far northwest part of the
state. Wednesday night as the system passes through continues to
look like the best chance of any precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow will move over the area in the wake of
the Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This could
bring a period of breezy north winds to the forecast area, along
with colder overnight temperatures. The ECMWF and GEM are hinting
at another inside slider system early next week, whereas the GFS
is dry. With low confidence in the forecast, our forecast closely
resembles climatology for early next week.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

IFR/MVFR conditions continue across the northern end of the
Valley, with VFR conditions developing generally south of KMYV
this afternoon. Expect most locations to again deteriorate to
IFR/MVFR with local LIFR this evening and tonight as fog develops.
Expect most locations to improve to VFR/MVFR by 18-20z Monday.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 212155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE.

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE.  WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS AND WARMER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EVENING.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THE LOCAL WRF IS STRONGER...SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
212100Z...FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THIS EVENING. VIS
OF 5-6 SM HZ IN INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED SURF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING ON
WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS
WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LOWEST DAY TIME HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 212151
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...MAINTAINING 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT NOT TO THE
DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ALSO...A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES...ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER POTENT 160-180KT UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. SO ANY
WARMING TO OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH NO PRECIP
CHANCES...AND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE WEDNESDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...JUST BRUSHING PARTS
OF ARIZONA IN THE PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH OF THIS NATURE SHOULD
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KLOX 212146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 212146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 212146
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
140 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN WAVE BROUGHT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS VENTURA AND PARTS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY. WE ALSO
HAD MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH WIND ADVISORIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH COAST OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...ACROSS THE VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE JET STREAM AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT SO
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

ON MONDAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. THIS OFFSHORE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEYS AND COASTS...EVEN THE CENTRAL COAST WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON MONDAY. A SANTA ANA WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
LATE MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BECOME -6 MB LAX-DAG AND -11 MB LAX-TPH. MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45KTS IN THE BEST CORRIDORS OF
EASTERN VENTURA AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ABOVE RIDGETOPS ARE NOT ALIGNED ALL THAT WELL AND COLD
ADVECTION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT. ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO
REISSUE SOLID WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT BEING A VERY COLD SANTA ANA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 10-15 DEGREES BY TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY FOR MANY VALLEYS AND COASTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE SANTA ANA IS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOCAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOW -5 MB LAX-DAG AND ONLY A -4 MB
LAX-TPH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DECREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARLY AS
WARM AS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO
SOUTHWEST CA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLS AND
PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH LATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS
SHAPING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO END THE YEAR.
THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TOWARD THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.

WE SHOULD SEE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/130 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/130 PM...

THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...STILL EXPECT MARGINAL HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED
ELEVATED SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...BOLDT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KHNX 211811
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1011 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. YET...FOGGY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOW DOMINATE THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIZZLE TODAY AS FOG LIFTS...PRODUCING TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY AND EXPECT
THE FOG TO REFORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE...WILL SEE A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
EXPIRE TO ISSUE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR NOW...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
KEEP THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR SEVERAL MORE GREY DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/
VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS PROMPTED
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY NOON.
DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. A
RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211811
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1011 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE PLAGUED WITH LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG DIMINISHING THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. YET...FOGGY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOW DOMINATE THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIZZLE TODAY AS FOG LIFTS...PRODUCING TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY AND EXPECT
THE FOG TO REFORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE...WILL SEE A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
EXPIRE TO ISSUE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR NOW...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AND
KEEP THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR SEVERAL MORE GREY DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/
VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS PROMPTED
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY NOON.
DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. A
RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KMTR 211749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NO ECHOES OF NOTE THIS MORNING QUITE A FEW GAUGES ARE
STILL REPORTING TIPS EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR. MOST LIKELY THE RADAR
BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SPOTS ARE SEEING
EITHER DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME
POCKETS OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SKY
CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN STORY
BEING THE MINOR WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. 12Z
MODELS COMING IN NOW KEEP ANY MAJOR STORMS WELL OUT OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERTICAL
PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER THE
BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED LOW
CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY AND SCT OUT BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...YET
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 20Z...YET PREVAILING MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WHILE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...KING TIDES
WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY
DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING
HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND
ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/AC
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211749
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NO ECHOES OF NOTE THIS MORNING QUITE A FEW GAUGES ARE
STILL REPORTING TIPS EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR. MOST LIKELY THE RADAR
BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SPOTS ARE SEEING
EITHER DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME
POCKETS OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SKY
CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN STORY
BEING THE MINOR WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. 12Z
MODELS COMING IN NOW KEEP ANY MAJOR STORMS WELL OUT OF OUR AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERTICAL
PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER THE
BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY
THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND HAS RESULTED LOW
CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY AND SCT OUT BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...YET
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE
THROUGH 20Z...YET PREVAILING MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...DESPITE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WHILE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...KING TIDES
WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY
DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING
HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND
ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/AC
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211741
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERATING A
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR POTENTIAL PEAK IF UNDER FULL SUNSHINE ON THIS SHORTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR AND BEGINNING OF WINTER. NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK AND SANDBERG.
WINDS HAVE LET UP IN OTHER AREAS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
REMAIN ROBUST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LAX-SFO AT -7.7 MB...THEN
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS START TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS WELL.
ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL DROP WIND ADVISORIES MONDAY MORNING BUT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE HOISTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING A FEW TIPS OF THE RAIN BUCKET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERLY JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND MODEL DATA
SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE ON THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/920 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA
MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/920 AM...

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211741
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERATING A
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR POTENTIAL PEAK IF UNDER FULL SUNSHINE ON THIS SHORTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR AND BEGINNING OF WINTER. NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK AND SANDBERG.
WINDS HAVE LET UP IN OTHER AREAS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
REMAIN ROBUST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LAX-SFO AT -7.7 MB...THEN
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS START TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS WELL.
ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL DROP WIND ADVISORIES MONDAY MORNING BUT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE HOISTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING A FEW TIPS OF THE RAIN BUCKET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERLY JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND MODEL DATA
SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE ON THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/920 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA
MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/920 AM...

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211741
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERATING A
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR POTENTIAL PEAK IF UNDER FULL SUNSHINE ON THIS SHORTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR AND BEGINNING OF WINTER. NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK AND SANDBERG.
WINDS HAVE LET UP IN OTHER AREAS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
REMAIN ROBUST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LAX-SFO AT -7.7 MB...THEN
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS START TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS WELL.
ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL DROP WIND ADVISORIES MONDAY MORNING BUT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE HOISTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING A FEW TIPS OF THE RAIN BUCKET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERLY JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND MODEL DATA
SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE ON THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/920 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA
MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/920 AM...

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 211741
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERATING A
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR POTENTIAL PEAK IF UNDER FULL SUNSHINE ON THIS SHORTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR AND BEGINNING OF WINTER. NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK AND SANDBERG.
WINDS HAVE LET UP IN OTHER AREAS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
REMAIN ROBUST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LAX-SFO AT -7.7 MB...THEN
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS START TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS WELL.
ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS WILL DROP WIND ADVISORIES MONDAY MORNING BUT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE HOISTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING A FEW TIPS OF THE RAIN BUCKET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD
RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERLY JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND MODEL DATA
SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE ON THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-10 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1735Z...

AT 1725Z...THERE WAS A INVERSION BASED AT 1700 FEET WITH A TOP OF
3600 FEET AND A TEMP OF 16 CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IN
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT KPRB AND
KLGB...BUT THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MOST SITES VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE
KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR CONDS IS EXPECTED (WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE).

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE
LLWS/TURBULENCE AT KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
LLWS/TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...21/920 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM POINT SAL DOWN TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF POINT SAL. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SLOWLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA
MONICA.

&&

.BEACHES...21/920 AM...

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...EB/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17







000
FXUS66 KSGX 211734
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY OF OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS.  THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD...WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG 130 WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNDER MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  AS A RESULT...HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MORE SUN BREAKS TODAY.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN TODAY...AS THE 12Z KNKX
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME MINOR WARNING NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH GREATER
WARMING ALOFT.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING 2 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER...AND EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

THIS WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKLY OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL ONSHORE TO THE EAST.  OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN PEAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO REMAINS WEAK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE 12Z NAM NOW
SHOWS 35 TO 45 KTS AT 850 MBS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z ON TUESDAY...AND UP TO 50 KTS AT 925
MBS.  THIS LIKELY MEANS THAT THE LOCAL WRF WILL BE STRONGER...BUT
AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO WITH THESE
WINDS...AS IT APPEARS SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...SQUASHING THE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE
RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THESE DAYS
AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND MORE OFFSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
FIRE WEATHER...17







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211710
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1009 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATE 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A RATHER POTENT 140-160KT UPPER LEVEL JET
PUNCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
JET AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN
AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA ARE ONCE
AGAIN COOL AND DRY...BUT THE CLOUD COVER DID KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. DIURNAL DEW POINT
TEMP TRENDS HAVE DIPPED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL STILL HOVER IN THE 30S-40S
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A BIT WARMER...
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ANY
WARMING TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY AND
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 211710
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1009 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING...AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATE 582-588DM 500MB HEIGHTS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A RATHER POTENT 140-160KT UPPER LEVEL JET
PUNCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
JET AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN
AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA ARE ONCE
AGAIN COOL AND DRY...BUT THE CLOUD COVER DID KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. DIURNAL DEW POINT
TEMP TRENDS HAVE DIPPED SLIGHTLY BUT WILL STILL HOVER IN THE 30S-40S
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A BIT WARMER...
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY...
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF RIDGE AXIS WERE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. ANY
WARMING TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY AND
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211700
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS
VIRTUALLY NO ECHOES OF NOTE THIS MORNING QUITE A FEW GAUGES ARE
STILL REPORTING TIPS EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR. MOST LIKELY THE RADAR
BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SPOTS ARE SEEING
EITHER DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME
POCKETS OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. WILL DO A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SKY CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN STORY
BEING THE MINOR WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. 12Z
MODELS COMING IN NOW KEEP ANY MAJOR STORMS WELL OUT OF OUR AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERTICAL
PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER THE BEAM
OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 AM PST SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WHILE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...KING TIDES
WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY
DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING
HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND
ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/AC
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSTO 211635
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
835 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Overcast skies today but no fog this morning in the valley. Some
fog is being reported in the foothills and mountains.

Moisture continues to stream into the region today but generally
any showers will be in the mountains through tonight. A strong
ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep the
interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look like it
may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. Conditions will improve
to VFR generally south of KMYV after 20z today across the Valley,
but fog will be possible tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions will
continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090 today.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211635
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
835 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Overcast skies today but no fog this morning in the valley. Some
fog is being reported in the foothills and mountains.

Moisture continues to stream into the region today but generally
any showers will be in the mountains through tonight. A strong
ridge of high pressure builds over the interior to keep the
interior dry for Monday and Tuesday. Fog continues to look like it
may become an issue each night and morning starting Monday
morning.

As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm well above
normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could be flirting
with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in the valley
moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion may limit
the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to end up being
warmer.

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. Conditions will improve
to VFR generally south of KMYV after 20z today across the Valley,
but fog will be possible tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions will
continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090 today.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211350
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
550 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL AUTOMATED GAGES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THIS HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LOW SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY FOG DISSIPATION UNTIL POSSIBLY
NOON. DAY SHIFTERS WILL NEED TO ASSESS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.
A RECURRENCE OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING UNLESS FOG LIFTS INTO A HIGH ENOUGH STRATUS DECK AND SETS
UP ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR.


&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
..ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 211349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 211349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 211349
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACED THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS THERE TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY). WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP
POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO CONTINE TO
RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MON MORNING...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO NE WINDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A BIT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVER THE FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
426 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...LATEST OAK UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO OVER
5000 FEET. NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW CIGS WITH DRIZZLE COVERS THE SFO
AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT
THE CIGS FROM IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z.
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE LARGE SWELLS THAT IMPACTED THE COAST ON SATURDAY ARE
DECREASING. HOWEVER KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND
BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING
VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...STRONG
CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER
OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
419 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific is gradually shifting
eastward with a warmer airmass over the region. Current temperatures
are 3 to 4 degrees warmer this morning compared to Saturday
morning. Overcast stratus is spread over the area and is limiting fog
development with just some misty patches for the morning. Could
see some light drizzle with the low clouds this morning in the
northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley. Abundant
precipitable water remains over the area (around 1.0 inch), though
dynamics are very limited. Warm advection will bring some light rain
showers for the northern Sacramento Valley today, with better
chances for the mountains. Additional rainfall amounts up to around
1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible over the Shasta County
mountains today, lesser amounts elsewhere. Just a a few lingering
showers possible over the northern mountains tonight. Snow levels
today are quite high with the relatively warm air mass over the
area, so no winter travel concerns today.

Ridging will bring dry weather and very mild temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. Fog will begin to become an issue with
lingering low level moisture clearing skies and light winds. This
could limit temperatures in some Valley locations if it persists.

A weak system in northwest flow may brush through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Moisture should be limited with this
system. It could be cool enough to bring some snow into the
mountains, but amounts look like they would be relatively light. EK


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090
today.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
419 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific is gradually shifting
eastward with a warmer airmass over the region. Current temperatures
are 3 to 4 degrees warmer this morning compared to Saturday
morning. Overcast stratus is spread over the area and is limiting fog
development with just some misty patches for the morning. Could
see some light drizzle with the low clouds this morning in the
northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley. Abundant
precipitable water remains over the area (around 1.0 inch), though
dynamics are very limited. Warm advection will bring some light rain
showers for the northern Sacramento Valley today, with better
chances for the mountains. Additional rainfall amounts up to around
1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible over the Shasta County
mountains today, lesser amounts elsewhere. Just a a few lingering
showers possible over the northern mountains tonight. Snow levels
today are quite high with the relatively warm air mass over the
area, so no winter travel concerns today.

Ridging will bring dry weather and very mild temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. Fog will begin to become an issue with
lingering low level moisture clearing skies and light winds. This
could limit temperatures in some Valley locations if it persists.

A weak system in northwest flow may brush through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Moisture should be limited with this
system. It could be cool enough to bring some snow into the
mountains, but amounts look like they would be relatively light. EK


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090
today.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
419 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific is gradually shifting
eastward with a warmer airmass over the region. Current temperatures
are 3 to 4 degrees warmer this morning compared to Saturday
morning. Overcast stratus is spread over the area and is limiting fog
development with just some misty patches for the morning. Could
see some light drizzle with the low clouds this morning in the
northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley. Abundant
precipitable water remains over the area (around 1.0 inch), though
dynamics are very limited. Warm advection will bring some light rain
showers for the northern Sacramento Valley today, with better
chances for the mountains. Additional rainfall amounts up to around
1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible over the Shasta County
mountains today, lesser amounts elsewhere. Just a a few lingering
showers possible over the northern mountains tonight. Snow levels
today are quite high with the relatively warm air mass over the
area, so no winter travel concerns today.

Ridging will bring dry weather and very mild temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. Fog will begin to become an issue with
lingering low level moisture clearing skies and light winds. This
could limit temperatures in some Valley locations if it persists.

A weak system in northwest flow may brush through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Moisture should be limited with this
system. It could be cool enough to bring some snow into the
mountains, but amounts look like they would be relatively light. EK


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090
today.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
419 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific is gradually shifting
eastward with a warmer airmass over the region. Current temperatures
are 3 to 4 degrees warmer this morning compared to Saturday
morning. Overcast stratus is spread over the area and is limiting fog
development with just some misty patches for the morning. Could
see some light drizzle with the low clouds this morning in the
northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley. Abundant
precipitable water remains over the area (around 1.0 inch), though
dynamics are very limited. Warm advection will bring some light rain
showers for the northern Sacramento Valley today, with better
chances for the mountains. Additional rainfall amounts up to around
1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible over the Shasta County
mountains today, lesser amounts elsewhere. Just a a few lingering
showers possible over the northern mountains tonight. Snow levels
today are quite high with the relatively warm air mass over the
area, so no winter travel concerns today.

Ridging will bring dry weather and very mild temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. Fog will begin to become an issue with
lingering low level moisture clearing skies and light winds. This
could limit temperatures in some Valley locations if it persists.

A weak system in northwest flow may brush through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Moisture should be limited with this
system. It could be cool enough to bring some snow into the
mountains, but amounts look like they would be relatively light. EK


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090
today.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 211219
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
419 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Diminishing showers today, mainly in the mountains. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge with patchy fog. There is a chance
another system may affect the region Wednesday into early Christmas
Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific is gradually shifting
eastward with a warmer airmass over the region. Current temperatures
are 3 to 4 degrees warmer this morning compared to Saturday
morning. Overcast stratus is spread over the area and is limiting fog
development with just some misty patches for the morning. Could
see some light drizzle with the low clouds this morning in the
northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley. Abundant
precipitable water remains over the area (around 1.0 inch), though
dynamics are very limited. Warm advection will bring some light rain
showers for the northern Sacramento Valley today, with better
chances for the mountains. Additional rainfall amounts up to around
1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible over the Shasta County
mountains today, lesser amounts elsewhere. Just a a few lingering
showers possible over the northern mountains tonight. Snow levels
today are quite high with the relatively warm air mass over the
area, so no winter travel concerns today.

Ridging will bring dry weather and very mild temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday. Fog will begin to become an issue with
lingering low level moisture clearing skies and light winds. This
could limit temperatures in some Valley locations if it persists.

A weak system in northwest flow may brush through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Moisture should be limited with this
system. It could be cool enough to bring some snow into the
mountains, but amounts look like they would be relatively light. EK


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
Christmas Eve system heading into next weekend. This will return
dry weather to the region and bring cooler overnight temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Snow levels rise above 090
today.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACE THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY).
WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND
THE I-5 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO
NE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A
BIT BELOW ADVISORY TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES ON MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAK. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
326 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. MOIST UPSLOPE NLY FLOW PILING UP ON THE
NORTHERN MTN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
OR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE SUN AT TIMES. GUSTY NW TO N
WINDS CONTD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A
WHILE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 950 MB THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS
SINCE GUSTY WINDS HAVE SURFACE THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE SANTA CLARITA...SAN FERNANDO AND ERN VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS (ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY).
WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND WARMING AT 850 AND 950
MB...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL.

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE NELY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS SBA COUNTY AND
THE I-5 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES PRONE TO
NE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY A
BIT BELOW ADVISORY TEMPS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE UP SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES ON MONDAY.

OFFSHORE W-E GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT/TUE...AND THE LATEST
MODELS...WITH A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES NOW DIGGING A BIT FARTHER
WESTWARD...SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS
L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES MON NIGHT/TUE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES.
THE LATEST MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AND SOME
COOLING AT 850 MB AND 950 MB. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING EVEN TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON TUE. HAVE KNOCKED A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS FOR TUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SW OF THE REGION WILL
HOLD INTO WED...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAK. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAY BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE WED INTO THU...CAUSING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU...DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD...HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE
FCST AREA FRI AND SAT...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

21/1200Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT KLAX...KSMX AND KSBP THROUGH 17Z. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY AGAIN AT KSBA AFTER 02Z.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS THROUGH 17Z. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8 KT.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

21/330 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL FORECAST WITH LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL
MOVING THROUGH WATERS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY FROM NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND TO POINT SAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BEACHES...

21/330 AM.

A LARGE SWELL WITH A DIRECTION OF 290-300 DEGREES AND A LONG PERIOD
(18 SECONDS) GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE SURF
WILL NOT BE A HIGH AS IT WAS SATURDAY AND THE SURF ACROSS THE LA
BEACHES WILL BE JUST BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. THE SURF AND SWELL
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXFLSLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 211159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE
OF ENHANCED WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ/KUHLMAN








000
FXUS66 KHNX 211148
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
...ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
!!!! BULLETIN ERROR !!!!
PLEASE MAKE A NOTE IN THE STATION LOG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 211148
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CENTRAL CA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS MAY STILL GET LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN BANKED UP IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WHERE STRATUS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE SJ VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOWEST BOUNDARY
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (BELOW 2500 FEET) TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SATURATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION...TIGHTEN THE LID SO TO SPEAK AND
PREVENT LOW STRATUS FROM LIFTING OUT OF THE SJ VLY. THIS WILL
MAKE MAX TEMP FORECASTS VERY PROBLEMATIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH CA AS AN INSIDE
SLIDER XMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOISTURE DEFICIENT...THIS TROUGH
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SANTA IS DELIVERING HIS GIFTS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH XMAS DAY MORNING
...ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE NP. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE
CWA DURING THE XMAS HOLIDAY AND MIX SOME OF THE LOW CRUD OUT OF
THE SJ VLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL SHOVE
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH XMAS DAY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 5 TO
7 DAY PERIOD AND FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BUT IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
19Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
!!!! BULLETIN ERROR !!!!
PLEASE MAKE A NOTE IN THE STATION LOG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990
KFAT 12-23       68:1964     37:1928     60:1964     18:1990

KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
KBFL 12-23       73:1964     36:1928     63:1955     14:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 211148
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
348 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINTER BEGINS TODAY AT 3:03 PM THE TIME OF THE
WINTER SOLSTICE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES WITH UP TO
1 INCH POSSIBLY OCCURRING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT HOWEVER
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY,
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...MORNING RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. EXPECT IFR TO PREVAIL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
CEILINGS. THOUGH, PERIODS OF LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13-15 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS MISSED OUR
WATERS, BUT THIS SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS SHOW WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, SO DROPPED THE SE.W AND SU.Y EARLIER THAN HEADLINED. THOSE
ARE REPLACED BY SC.Y`S, WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS WHILE THE INNER WATERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211143
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
345 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. SLOW COOLING WILL RETURN
ON SUNDAY. WINTER BEGINS AT 3:03 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING
INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL SCATTER
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT FLOW OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS...BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES...IN THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR THE RIDGETOPS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...COULD APPROACH
60 MPH...TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLOW WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SUNDAY...MUCH MORE
SO THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF EACH MODEL...WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WOULD
BRING SLOW COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210950Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 2000-3500 FEET
MSL WITHIN ABOUT 20 MI OF THE COAST AND AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM IN BR/HZ
IN THE VALLEYS...LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS. CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS CLEARING BY 15Z. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
205 AM...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
205 AM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS MONDAY...PEAK TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE..SS









000
FXUS66 KMTR 211132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
332 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STORM BRUSHING
THE AREA BRINGS TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:30 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY MEASURING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR CONFIRMS THAT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS THUS UNDER
THE BEAM OF THE KMUX WSR-88D RADAR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER IT WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH BAY THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE COMING NIGHTS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
THE BAY SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES...ALSO CALLED KING TIDES...WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THESE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MORNING HIGH TIDES
WILL PEAK MONDAY. SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO
HAVE ITS AXIS RUN SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...DEFLECTING
STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE AXIS
SHIFTS WEST ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
INSIDE SLIDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SE
TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS ECMWF AND GEM ALL
AGREE ON THE SYSTEM JUST BRUSHING BY THE AREA AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
HAVE JUST TEN PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
AT SFO. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE RAIN
CHANCES AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE CHRISTMAS
EVE...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE MORE CERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.

AFTER CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...ALL COASTAL AND BAY SHORE AREAS
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS SIERRA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY. DID INCREASE CHANCES TO AT LEAST 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM
I-80 NORTHWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST ON-SHORE FLOW CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN MAINLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEFORMS DUE TO
RIDGING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL CUT
OFF THE MOIST FLOW ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS.

OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GERLACH. GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50 MPH RANGE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND VERY NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY; A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT DUE TO WINDS KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WELL MIXED. AS A RESULT, SURFACE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
FORM LEADING TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES
FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING RENO (63 CURRENT RECORD), COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS MIXING LESSENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BY TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S WHICH REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM. BOYD

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AND COLD
FRONT MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF CARSON
PASS TO FALLON. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO WINDS AND/OR SNOW.

WINDS WILL KICK UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD GUST UP NEAR 60 MPH. WITH THE IMPROVED MIXING, HIGHS
IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 60S AND ANY HAZE AND
POLLUTANTS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS WILL CLEAR OUT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND. HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH 30S IN THE SIERRA.

AFTER CHRISTMAS, LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON EITHER A
COLD LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM WESTERN CANADA, OR A LOW
CUTTING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE RIDGE IS PINCHED NORTHWARD.
EITHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTH OF PORTOLA TO
LOVELOCK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KTRK-KLOL WITH
FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING WINDS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KPSR 210819
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
119 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS66 KSTO 210619
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1019 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014

.Synopsis...
A few showers continue overnight mainly north, diminishing on
Sunday. Dry Monday and Tuesday under high pressure ridge. There is
a chance another system may impact the region Wednesday into
Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...
Weak system passing north of the area will bring scattered showers
to Shasta county and northern Coastal Range tonight...generally
dry elsewhere. May see some patchy fog if a few breaks in the
clouds occur for valleys. Current forecast is on track and no
evening update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
A weak warm front is moving through the region. The atmosphere is
very moist so there is a chance of showers. Any showers should be
light for most areas other than in the far north where there is a
greater chance of seeing some moderate rain. Snow levels will be
rising throughout the evening so expect them to remain above major
trans-sierra pass levels.

Moisture will continue to stream into the region through Sunday
evening before a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
interior to keep things dry for several days. Fog may become an
issue each night and morning starting Monday morning.

Today`s chilly temperatures are actually around normal for us this
time of year. As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm
well above normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could
be flirting with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in
the valley moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion
may limit the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to
end up being warmer.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the Christmas
Eve system, although they are in slightly better agreement than 12
hours ago. The ECMWF remains to be the most bullish, bringing
potentially moderate snow and modest Valley rain to the area. The
operational GFS brushes by the northeastern portion of the state,
bringing Lassen Park some light snow. The Parallel (Hi-Res) GFS is
a blend of the two. The GEM has the farthest north storm track and
would be dry altogether for NorCal. With a majority of models now
showing at least some precipitation, we`ve increased our PoP
forecast accordingly.

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
system heading into next weekend. This could bring colder
overnight temperatures.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Patchy fog may develop across
parts of the Valley overnight. Snow levels 060-070 will rise to
above 080 by early Sunday. Light winds.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 210503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:03 PM PST SATURDAY...A HIGH CONTENT OF WATER
VAPOR IS PRESENT IN THE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR TRANSPORTED BY
THE WIND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING.
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP REDUCE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLOUDY CONDITIONS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 210440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
840 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO THIN ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY...AND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. COOLER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LAYERS OF CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TODAY WAS REFLECTED IN
THE 0.97 INCH PW VALUE OF THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 7 PM PST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK OFFSHORE FROM
NV...BUT WERE 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS SUPPORTING LOCAL
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG 594 DM HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N/130W BY SUN EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NE OF THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z TUE...HELPING TO
BUILD A COLD SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
COMBINATION OF FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOCAL MON NIGHT/TUE. MUCH
WARMER MON/TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY...DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
RAPIDLY WARMS TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON TUE
MORNING IN WIND PRONE AREAS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE EASTPAC WILL SUBSIDE LATE WED/THU AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PACNW AND DIGS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAY
BRING A FEW MARINE CLOUDS WITH IT. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN STILL WANTS
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL...MAINLY THU NIGHT...
BUT FOR NOW THE DRY GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
COOLER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

.ASTRONOMY...
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN AT 3:03 PM ON SUNDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TILTED AT ITS GREATEST ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
DIRECT RAYS OF THE SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
210430Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
2500-3500 FEET MSL WILL AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH
15Z SUN. LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCT AFT 15Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WITH FOG REDUCING VIS WHERE
CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000
FEET THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...A LARGE...LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FEET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.  THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AS WELL AS COASTAL SLOPES
MAY SEE GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH.  HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THESE DAYS AS WELL...FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
PERCENT BY TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT
RAINS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...PG





000
FXUS66 KMTR 210432
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
832 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210432
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
832 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 210432
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
832 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF
DRIZZLE IN PORTIONS OF SAN FRANCISCO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NOT BEING PICKED UP ON THE KMUX-88D RADAR AND IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.00". COULD SEE A FEW
SPOTS PICK UP A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER OFF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND
ALL 3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
84 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
CHRISTMAS EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECESSARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
BREAKING WAVES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...
THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES... WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS
TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM... STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES...
AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS. IN FACT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. REMAINING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WHILE TIGHTENING THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH DROP OFF IN
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS). IN ADDITION...THE LAX-BAKERSFIELD AND SBA-BAKERSFIELD GRADIENTS
ARE MORE OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...AND
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8
AT 12Z TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL.
WOULD EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL
OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AGAIN...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM A 290-300 DEGREE  DIRECTION
RELATIVE TO THE COAST. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL PEAKED ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLIER TODAY...AND IS CURRENTLY PEAKING IN THE INNER WATER
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE
STRENGTH FOR ZONES 673/676 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...20/800 PM.

LARGE SURF TODAY BEING GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SWELL DIRECTION WAS 290-300 DEGREES WHICH FOCUSED THE MAIN
ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF THE SWELL
(18 SECONDS)...SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WAS ABLE TO REFRACT INTO
THE INNER WATERS AND IMPACT THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CDIP SWELL ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOWED THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 15-20 FOOT BREAKERS ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. MORRO BAY HARBOR PATROL DID INDICATE MAX SETS
TO 16 FEET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAX SETS AT VENTURA
HARBOR AND CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR WERE 11 FEET AND 10 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. SURF WILL REMAIN QUITE LARGE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT NOT AS BIG AS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURF ACROSS
WEST FACING BEACHES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT THEIR PEAK
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES THIS WEEKEND...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...NEAR THE TIME
OF MORNING HIGH TIDE.  THE LARGE SURF WILL ALSO BRING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





















000
FXUS66 KLOX 210401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS. IN FACT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. REMAINING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WHILE TIGHTENING THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH DROP OFF IN
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS). IN ADDITION...THE LAX-BAKERSFIELD AND SBA-BAKERSFIELD GRADIENTS
ARE MORE OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...AND
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8
AT 12Z TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL.
WOULD EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL
OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AGAIN...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM A 290-300 DEGREE  DIRECTION
RELATIVE TO THE COAST. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL PEAKED ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLIER TODAY...AND IS CURRENTLY PEAKING IN THE INNER WATER
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE
STRENGTH FOR ZONES 673/676 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...20/800 PM.

LARGE SURF TODAY BEING GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SWELL DIRECTION WAS 290-300 DEGREES WHICH FOCUSED THE MAIN
ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF THE SWELL
(18 SECONDS)...SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WAS ABLE TO REFRACT INTO
THE INNER WATERS AND IMPACT THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CDIP SWELL ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOWED THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 15-20 FOOT BREAKERS ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. MORRO BAY HARBOR PATROL DID INDICATE MAX SETS
TO 16 FEET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAX SETS AT VENTURA
HARBOR AND CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR WERE 11 FEET AND 10 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. SURF WILL REMAIN QUITE LARGE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT NOT AS BIG AS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURF ACROSS
WEST FACING BEACHES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT THEIR PEAK
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES THIS WEEKEND...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...NEAR THE TIME
OF MORNING HIGH TIDE.  THE LARGE SURF WILL ALSO BRING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






















000
FXUS66 KLOX 210401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS. IN FACT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. REMAINING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WHILE TIGHTENING THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH DROP OFF IN
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS). IN ADDITION...THE LAX-BAKERSFIELD AND SBA-BAKERSFIELD GRADIENTS
ARE MORE OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...AND
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8
AT 12Z TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL.
WOULD EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL
OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AGAIN...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM A 290-300 DEGREE  DIRECTION
RELATIVE TO THE COAST. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL PEAKED ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLIER TODAY...AND IS CURRENTLY PEAKING IN THE INNER WATER
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE
STRENGTH FOR ZONES 673/676 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...20/800 PM.

LARGE SURF TODAY BEING GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SWELL DIRECTION WAS 290-300 DEGREES WHICH FOCUSED THE MAIN
ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF THE SWELL
(18 SECONDS)...SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WAS ABLE TO REFRACT INTO
THE INNER WATERS AND IMPACT THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CDIP SWELL ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOWED THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 15-20 FOOT BREAKERS ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. MORRO BAY HARBOR PATROL DID INDICATE MAX SETS
TO 16 FEET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAX SETS AT VENTURA
HARBOR AND CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR WERE 11 FEET AND 10 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. SURF WILL REMAIN QUITE LARGE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT NOT AS BIG AS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURF ACROSS
WEST FACING BEACHES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT THEIR PEAK
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES THIS WEEKEND...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...NEAR THE TIME
OF MORNING HIGH TIDE.  THE LARGE SURF WILL ALSO BRING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





















000
FXUS66 KLOX 210401
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN  GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHERE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS. IN FACT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. REMAINING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH
80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WHILE TIGHTENING THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD FOR THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH DROP OFF IN
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS). IN ADDITION...THE LAX-BAKERSFIELD AND SBA-BAKERSFIELD GRADIENTS
ARE MORE OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...AND
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8
AT 12Z TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL.
WOULD EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL
OFFSHORE WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AGAIN...EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM A 290-300 DEGREE  DIRECTION
RELATIVE TO THE COAST. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL PEAKED ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLIER TODAY...AND IS CURRENTLY PEAKING IN THE INNER WATER
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE
STRENGTH FOR ZONES 673/676 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...20/800 PM.

LARGE SURF TODAY BEING GENERATED BY A DISTANT STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SWELL DIRECTION WAS 290-300 DEGREES WHICH FOCUSED THE MAIN
ENERGY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF THE SWELL
(18 SECONDS)...SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WAS ABLE TO REFRACT INTO
THE INNER WATERS AND IMPACT THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CDIP SWELL ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOWED THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 15-20 FOOT BREAKERS ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. MORRO BAY HARBOR PATROL DID INDICATE MAX SETS
TO 16 FEET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MAX SETS AT VENTURA
HARBOR AND CHANNEL ISLANDS HARBOR WERE 11 FEET AND 10 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. SURF WILL REMAIN QUITE LARGE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT NOT AS BIG AS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURF ACROSS
WEST FACING BEACHES OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AT THEIR PEAK
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY HIGH
TIDES THIS WEEKEND...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...NEAR THE TIME
OF MORNING HIGH TIDE.  THE LARGE SURF WILL ALSO BRING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






















000
FXUS65 KPSR 210305
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS FORECAST HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...310 PM MST...

REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 210305
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MODELS FORECAST HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...310 PM MST...

REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ












000
FXUS65 KREV 210158 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
558 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH 30AGL WINDS INCREASING TO
40-55KT IN THE 18Z NAM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DUE TO THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. SO WE RAN THE ADVISORY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 210158 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
558 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH 30AGL WINDS INCREASING TO
40-55KT IN THE 18Z NAM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DUE TO THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. SO WE RAN THE ADVISORY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 210158 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
558 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH 30AGL WINDS INCREASING TO
40-55KT IN THE 18Z NAM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DUE TO THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. SO WE RAN THE ADVISORY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 210158 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
558 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH 30AGL WINDS INCREASING TO
40-55KT IN THE 18Z NAM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DUE TO THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. SO WE RAN THE ADVISORY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY NVZ005.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY CAZ070.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210026
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME COOLING. LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP SOMEWHAT TO
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 210025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME
COOLING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP
SOMEWHAT TO REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 210025
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 PM PST SATURDAY...A VERY HIGH WATER VAPOR
CONTENT AIR MASS FOR DEC COVERS ALMOST ALL OF CA THIS AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS OF THIS AFTERNOOON ARE >200% OF NORMAL
OVER MOST OF CA. THE WATER VAPOR IS RIDING NORTH AND EAST OVER A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER NORCAL
DURING THE PERIOD WHILE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR
TRANSPORTED BY THE WIND PROVIDES NECCESARY LIFT FOR AREAS OF WET
WEATHER TO SPREAD SE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH LONG NIGHT-TIME
COOLING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS RAINFALL MAY HELP
SOMEWHAT TO REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG DURING THE PERIOD NONETHELESS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO PRESS GRADS SAC-SFO
0.9 MB AND SFO-HALF MOON BAY BUOY 0.6 MB. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST
DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/WET RUNWAYS LIKELY BY 03Z THIS EVE.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO THE BAY
AREA BUT DELAYED A BIT AS LIGHT RAIN BAND GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR/MVFR CIGS FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TIMED TO REACH AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THRU 10 PM FOR COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO
 MONTEREY COUNTY
 SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 202343
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER OVER NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...WHICH SHOULD OFFICIALLY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME WARMING TODAY OVER YESTERDAY`S TEMPS...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MORE THINNING SPOTS
ARE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLEARER BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
INCLUDING NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. BUT THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE STARTING THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS ALSO FAVOR SOME ADVISORY WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA AND SAN
MARCOS PASS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SOUTH GRADIENTS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH MIGHT BE STRETCHING IT FOR THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
WINDS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING.  LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY...AND THE SANTA MONICA RANGE.

NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NAM PUTS THE SBA-BFL GRADIENT AT
-5.8 TOMORROW EVENING (COMPARED TO -2.0 TONIGHT) AND -6.4 ON MONDAY
MORNING...EACH CONSIDERED TO BE MODERATE GRADIENTS. WILL NEED
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE CURRENT ADVISORY ISN`T
EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8 AT 12Z
TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN...EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM ON
TUESDAY FROM 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY COAST. THE
DISTANT SWELLS WILL LIKELY PEAK TODAY BUT LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS AND GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL AND THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...20/1000 AM.

SURF WILL PEAK TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH BREAKERS 15
TO 20 FEET ALONG EXPOSED NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THE WATER LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MINUS 1 FOOT AT LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURF WILL LIKELY RANGE 8 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6
FEET SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS IS EXPECTED THEN.

AN 18 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BIGHT FROM
290-300 DEGREES. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
HIGH SURF BUT HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FROM VENTURA TO POINT
MUGU AND IN THE SANTA MONICA SOUTH BAY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES. FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH SURF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/30
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 202343
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER OVER NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...WHICH SHOULD OFFICIALLY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME WARMING TODAY OVER YESTERDAY`S TEMPS...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MORE THINNING SPOTS
ARE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLEARER BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
INCLUDING NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. BUT THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE STARTING THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS ALSO FAVOR SOME ADVISORY WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA AND SAN
MARCOS PASS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SOUTH GRADIENTS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH MIGHT BE STRETCHING IT FOR THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
WINDS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING.  LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY...AND THE SANTA MONICA RANGE.

NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NAM PUTS THE SBA-BFL GRADIENT AT
-5.8 TOMORROW EVENING (COMPARED TO -2.0 TONIGHT) AND -6.4 ON MONDAY
MORNING...EACH CONSIDERED TO BE MODERATE GRADIENTS. WILL NEED
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE CURRENT ADVISORY ISN`T
EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8 AT 12Z
TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN...EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2340Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2340Z IS NONE.

MOSTLY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS INCREASE...LOOKING FOR LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME MOSTLY CONFINED TO INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR SLOPES. LLWS LIKELY AT KSBA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY TO SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING AT KSBP AND KSMX.

KLAX...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KLAX.

KBUR...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KBUR.

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM ON
TUESDAY FROM 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY COAST. THE
DISTANT SWELLS WILL LIKELY PEAK TODAY BUT LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS AND GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL AND THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...20/1000 AM.

SURF WILL PEAK TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH BREAKERS 15
TO 20 FEET ALONG EXPOSED NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THE WATER LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MINUS 1 FOOT AT LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURF WILL LIKELY RANGE 8 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6
FEET SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS IS EXPECTED THEN.

AN 18 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BIGHT FROM
290-300 DEGREES. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
HIGH SURF BUT HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FROM VENTURA TO POINT
MUGU AND IN THE SANTA MONICA SOUTH BAY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES. FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH SURF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...GOMBERG/30
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KEKA 202311
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SOME
RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE OR
AND N CA COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...WHERE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 18
HOURS OR SO. 18Z BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP H2O SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT POISED TO COME ASHORE N
CA AND EXTREME SW OR. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAINS MAY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF OVER PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. HOWEVER...RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE...AND MORE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES.

ON SUN...RAINS WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL STILL
SEE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE. STILL...12Z-00Z TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH ALONG SW FACING
TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON. SKIES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY...ALTHO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO SUNSET. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL
LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. /SEC

.HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A SLOWLY
DECAYING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CAUSES WAVES TO BREAK NEAR 22 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS SHALL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. NEVER THE LESS, THE DECAYING SWELL IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER SETS OF WAVES THAT CAN WASH OVER JETTIES
AND ROCKS THIS WEEKEND. BEACH GOERS TAKE HEED AND STAY FARTHER BACK
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. KML

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED
TO SURPASS 9 FT. AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING THE ARCATA
BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW
AREAS AROUND THE BAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINING MVFR DOWN TO IFR. BREEZY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL EASE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN OBSTRUCTED OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. IMPROVEMENT
WILL COME VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS RAIN DECREASES
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE RAIN WILL PERSIST NORTH THE CAPE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 17Z ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL
CORE OF GALE WINDS NEAR POINT SAINT GEORGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SEAS, THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN
17 TO 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATING THESE
HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THUS ALLOWING THE SEA
STATE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE THAN WHAT WAVE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LARGE BUT SLOWLY DECAYING SEA SATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK MEANING FRESH TO
MODERATE WINDS. HOWEVER, A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY HELPING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED SEA STATE
THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A PASSING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 3 PM MON FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
      FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 202311
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SOME
RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE OR
AND N CA COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES...WHERE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 18
HOURS OR SO. 18Z BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP H2O SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THE HIGHEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT POISED TO COME ASHORE N
CA AND EXTREME SW OR. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAINS MAY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF OVER PORTIONS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. HOWEVER...RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE...AND MORE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER DEL NORTE AND N HUMBOLDT...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES.

ON SUN...RAINS WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FAVORED LOCATIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL STILL
SEE CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE. STILL...12Z-00Z TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH ALONG SW FACING
TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON. SKIES MAY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY...ALTHO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY
RETURN TO THE INTERIOR S OF CAPE MENDO PRIOR TO SUNSET. REDUCED
CLOUD COVER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE WILL
LEAD THE WAY TO VALLEY FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN IS PROGGED FOR WED...BUT THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO...AND SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DROP WED NIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. /SEC

.HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A SLOWLY
DECAYING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CAUSES WAVES TO BREAK NEAR 22 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS SHALL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT. NEVER THE LESS, THE DECAYING SWELL IS STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER SETS OF WAVES THAT CAN WASH OVER JETTIES
AND ROCKS THIS WEEKEND. BEACH GOERS TAKE HEED AND STAY FARTHER BACK
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. KML

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS TIDES ARE EXPECTED
TO SURPASS 9 FT. AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY INCLUDING THE ARCATA
BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON CAN EXPECT MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW
AREAS AROUND THE BAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINING MVFR DOWN TO IFR. BREEZY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL EASE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN OBSTRUCTED OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. IMPROVEMENT
WILL COME VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS RAIN DECREASES
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE RAIN WILL PERSIST NORTH THE CAPE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE 17Z ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A SMALL
CORE OF GALE WINDS NEAR POINT SAINT GEORGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SEAS, THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN
17 TO 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL GENERATING THESE
HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THUS ALLOWING THE SEA
STATE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THE SWELL HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE THAN WHAT WAVE MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ONCE THE
WARNING EXPIRES TONIGHT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
ALL ZONES OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LARGE BUT SLOWLY DECAYING SEA SATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK MEANING FRESH TO
MODERATE WINDS. HOWEVER, A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY HELPING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED SEA STATE
THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A PASSING TROUGH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 3 PM MON FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TIL 6 PM THIS EVENING
      FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 202254 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 202254 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 202239
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 202239
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 202239
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 202239
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
239 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KING TIDES WILL ARRIVE TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY FRONT...INCLUDING COASTAL MARSHES AND SLOUGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:39 PM SATURDAY...THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOUR IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND NAM12 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 1200Z ECMWF HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL AND ALL
3 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 84
HOURS. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTH BAY AREA.

THE MODELS SLOWLY BUILD THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLIDE IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS40 AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
EVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY IMPACT OF SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE MINIMAL .

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PST SATURDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY AND RESULT IN TRANSITORY IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS
AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY DECEPTIVELY RISE AND DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY... HAVE DECIDED IN COORDINATION WITH THE CWSU TO
PUSH FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF PACKAGE. THIS MAY BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FORECAST AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. FG WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY... HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS COULD LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
LEAD TO WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:11 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAR AND OFFSHORE REEFS
AND ROCK OUTCROPPINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... THE KING TIDES WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND INLAND BAYS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. KING TIDE IMPACTS
FOR SEAFARING VESSELS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING LOW TIDES...
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF BOAT KEELS TOUCHING HARBOR BOTTOM...
STRONG CURRENTS IN HARBOR ENTRANCES... AND ADDITIONAL BREAKING
WAVES OVER OFFSHORE REEFS.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST LINE THROUGH 10PM.
                        SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KHNX 202222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED
DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SPILLING OVER AN OFFSHORE RIDGE AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL CA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN NOTED BY RADAR COMPOSITES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. THE 12Z WRF IS
INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY PUSHING
THE SPILLOVER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. ONE
POSSIBLE IMPACT THIS MIGHT HAVE IS THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
CLEARING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INLAND AND HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE. A NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AN DESERTS ON MONDAY AS
WELL. WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE FOG WILL LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND ALL
DAY...IT WILL EITHER LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK OR BURN OFF
COMPLETELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING
THAT SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NOTICABLE LOWERING OF DAYTIME HUMIDITY
TAKING PLACE BY MONDAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING A
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH TEMPORARILY ELIMINATE FOG CHANCES IN THE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNSETTLED. HE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT/S PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS
TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. IT STILL INDICATES SOME DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CLIP CENTRAL CA. THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY IS VERY
LOW IS THERE IS POOR ENSEMBLE MEMBER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD.
HAVE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF FOR NOW AND
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
WAIT UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RIDGE IS THEN
PROGGED TO RE-AMPLIFY OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS
BEEN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGING AND MEX
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME MORNING FROST IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS NOT
AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND SO AM NOT MENTIONING FROST AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR WITH PATCHES OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN DESERTS...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990

KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 202222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE INCREASED
DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SPILLING OVER AN OFFSHORE RIDGE AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL CA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN NOTED BY RADAR COMPOSITES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. THE 12Z WRF IS
INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY PUSHING
THE SPILLOVER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. ONE
POSSIBLE IMPACT THIS MIGHT HAVE IS THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
CLEARING IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO FORM. FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INLAND AND HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE. A NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AN DESERTS ON MONDAY AS
WELL. WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE FOG WILL LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND ALL
DAY...IT WILL EITHER LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK OR BURN OFF
COMPLETELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING
THAT SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NOTICABLE LOWERING OF DAYTIME HUMIDITY
TAKING PLACE BY MONDAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING A
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH TEMPORARILY ELIMINATE FOG CHANCES IN THE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNSETTLED. HE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT/S PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS
TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. IT STILL INDICATES SOME DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CLIP CENTRAL CA. THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY IS VERY
LOW IS THERE IS POOR ENSEMBLE MEMBER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD.
HAVE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF FOR NOW AND
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
WAIT UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RIDGE IS THEN
PROGGED TO RE-AMPLIFY OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS
BEEN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGING AND MEX
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME MORNING FROST IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS NOT
AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLING TREND SO AM NOT MENTIONING FROST AT
THIS TIME...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR WITH PATCHES OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI RANGE. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN DESERTS...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990

KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 202219
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER OVER NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...WHICH SHOULD OFFICIALLY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME WARMING TODAY OVER YESTERDAY`S TEMPS...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MORE THINNING SPOTS
ARE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLEARER BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
INCLUDING NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. BUT THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE STARTING THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS ALSO FAVOR SOME ADVISORY WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA AND SAN
MARCOS PASS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SOUTH GRADIENTS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH MIGHT BE STRETCHING IT FOR THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
WINDS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING.  LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY...AND THE SANTA MONICA RANGE.

NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NAM PUTS THE SBA-BFL GRADIENT AT
-5.8 TOMORROW EVENING (COMPARED TO -2.0 TONIGHT) AND -6.4 ON MONDAY
MORNING...EACH CONSIDERED TO BE MODERATE GRADIENTS. WILL NEED
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE CURRENT ADVISORY ISN`T
EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8 AT 12Z
TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN...EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG NORTH AND MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
MODERATE NORTH BY 21/03Z OVER THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST MID/UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH 21/06Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 9KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1730Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS THROUGH 21/03Z LIKELY THEN
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS THROUGH 21/03Z LIKELY THEN
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM ON
TUESDAY FROM 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY COAST. THE
DISTANT SWELLS WILL LIKELY PEAK TODAY BUT LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS AND GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL AND THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...20/1000 AM.

SURF WILL PEAK TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH BREAKERS 15
TO 20 FEET ALONG EXPOSED NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THE WATER LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MINUS 1 FOOT AT LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURF WILL LIKELY RANGE 8 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6
FEET SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS IS EXPECTED THEN.

AN 18 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BIGHT FROM
290-300 DEGREES. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
HIGH SURF BUT HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FROM VENTURA TO POINT
MUGU AND IN THE SANTA MONICA SOUTH BAY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES. FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH SURF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 202219
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT TO BRING
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL AFFECT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SEND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER OVER NORTHERN
SLO COUNTY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...WHICH SHOULD OFFICIALLY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME WARMING TODAY OVER YESTERDAY`S TEMPS...BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MORE THINNING SPOTS
ARE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CLEARER BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
INCLUDING NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. BUT THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR
WESTWARD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE STARTING THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) INDICATE AT LEAST LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT.
GRADIENTS ALSO FAVOR SOME ADVISORY WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA AND SAN
MARCOS PASS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH SOUTH GRADIENTS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH MIGHT BE STRETCHING IT FOR THE SBA SOUTH
COAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
WINDS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING.  LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY...AND THE SANTA MONICA RANGE.

NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NAM PUTS THE SBA-BFL GRADIENT AT
-5.8 TOMORROW EVENING (COMPARED TO -2.0 TONIGHT) AND -6.4 ON MONDAY
MORNING...EACH CONSIDERED TO BE MODERATE GRADIENTS. WILL NEED
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE CURRENT ADVISORY ISN`T
EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE -6.8 AT 12Z
TUESDAY...CONSIDERED TO BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EVIDENT UP TO BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL OFFSHORE
WIND PRONE AREAS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN...EXPECT
TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
COOL WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AT LEAST...THOUGH STILL
REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
DISAGREEING A BIT ON THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH...THE ECMWF DIGGING IT
FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. BUT BOTH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR 12Z RUNS AND THE TROUGH WILL RIDE ACROSS FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY....BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS IT DOES. BOTH THE EC AND
THE GFS REDEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IT INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A COLDER HIGH SO DON`T
EXPECT MUCH OF ANY WARMUP WITH THESE OFFSHORE WINDS..IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG NORTH AND MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
MODERATE NORTH BY 21/03Z OVER THE AREA. RELATIVELY MOIST MID/UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH 21/06Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 9KFT THIS
MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 4KFT SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1730Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS THROUGH 21/03Z LIKELY THEN
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS THROUGH 21/03Z LIKELY THEN
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...20/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND TO POINT CONCEPTION AND OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SWELLS TODAY WERE GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM ON
TUESDAY FROM 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY COAST. THE
DISTANT SWELLS WILL LIKELY PEAK TODAY BUT LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS
WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS AND GREATER THAN 10 FEET THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL AND THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...20/1000 AM.

SURF WILL PEAK TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH BREAKERS 15
TO 20 FEET ALONG EXPOSED NORTHWEST FACING SHORES. THE WATER LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MINUS 1 FOOT AT LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURF WILL LIKELY RANGE 8 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6
FEET SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS IS EXPECTED THEN.

AN 18 SECOND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BIGHT FROM
290-300 DEGREES. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS NOT FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
HIGH SURF BUT HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED IN AREAS FROM VENTURA TO POINT
MUGU AND IN THE SANTA MONICA SOUTH BAY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES. FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH SURF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS65 KREV 202212
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 202212
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 202212
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 202212
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. LINGERING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT HAVE RAISED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA-LOVELOCK LINE THROUGH
TOMORROW, LIFTING IT FARTHER NORTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A
WEAKLY FORCED SITUATION WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND JET
DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. LIQUID TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 8.5-10K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SIERRA PASSES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA, BUT SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 45
MPH IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE THE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS
ARE THE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS INLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP TO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WARMING CONDITIONS, TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WITHOUT WIND PRESENT,
INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE,
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. DJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
FAST MOVING TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE MAIN TREND IS
HOLDING OFF MOST PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT STILL PUSHING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY HAVE A HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF SURPASSING 60 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WITH 40-45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-70 MPH.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FROM SOUTH
TAHOE-MINDEN-FALLON NORTHWARD AS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SNOW, BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT, PROBABLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TOGETHER INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NV FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE STRONGER FORCING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NV WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND RENO-TAHOE.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS WAS NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AREAS
COMPARED TO ITS OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP IN WESTERN NV AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE, EVEN SHOWING UP ON ITS MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A DRY
PATTERN WILL THEN RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE TAHOE BASIN AND OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE QUITE CHILLY AS A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER IS PRESENT.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST U.S.. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NV NEXT SATURDAY
NIGHT, IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE EVENT. THIS IS A NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL BE WORTH WATCHING, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KT AROUND KCXP AND IN THE NORTH RENO HILLS.
THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT KRNO BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 03Z. SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER
MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN COULD BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO KTVL/KTRK
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING AND RETREATING FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KPSR 202211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 202211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 202211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 202211 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 202205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION...IF NOT
ALL...OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THIS COMING THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A LARGE SWATH
OF THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST
COAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ONCE THE WEAK TROUGH/JET AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
582-588DM FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION...A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAILY HIGHS FROM 65-70 EACH DAY...A BIT
WARMER AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO...WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
40S CWA-WIDE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS PRIOR RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS WERE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...
THE 20.12Z ECMWF NOW ALIGNS BETTER WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS STILL THE DRIER OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...LACKING MOISTURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES REMAIN STEADY AND INDICATE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS-TYPE SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL BUT NOT WANTING TO
DISCOUNT THE WETTER ECMWF...WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCED VERY LOW END
DOUBLE DIGIT POPS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY TREND. STILL...A
RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT PERIODS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING BKN TO OVC SKIES AND REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
20KFT. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GNLY 8KTS OR LESS...AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION...IF NOT
ALL...OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MINIMUM VALUES STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KSTO 202141
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
141 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Mainly light Rain and light amounts of high elevation mountain
snow continue tonight, diminishing on Sunday. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge. There is a chance another
system may impact the region Wednesday into Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...

A weak warm front is moving through the region. The atmosphere is
very moist so there is a chance of showers. Any showers should be
light for most areas other than in the far north where there is a
greater chance of seeing some moderate rain. Snow levels will be
rising throughout the evening so expect them to remain above
major trans-sierra pass levels.

Moisture will continue to stream into the region through Sunday
evening before a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
interior to keep things dry for several days. Fog may become an
issue each night and morning starting Monday morning.

Today`s chilly temperatures are actually around normal for us this
time of year. As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm
well above normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could
be flirting with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in
the valley moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion
may limit the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to
end up being warmer.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the Christmas
Eve system, although they are in slightly better agreement than 12
hours ago. The ECMWF remains to be the most bullish, bringing
potentially moderate snow and modest Valley rain to the area. The
operational GFS brushes by the northeastern portion of the state,
bringing Lassen Park some light snow. The Parallel (Hi-Res) GFS is
a blend of the two. The GEM has the farthest north storm track and
would be dry altogether for NorCal. With a majority of models now
showing at least some precipitation, we`ve increased our PoP
forecast accordingly.

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
system heading into next weekend. This could bring colder
overnight temperatures.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue across Valley TAF sites as
abundant moisture remains over the region. IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue over the mountains. Scattered showers will move
through the area today, and patchy fog may develop across parts of
the Valley tonight. Snow levels 060-070 will rise to above 080 by
early Sunday. SE winds 8-16 kt will continue across the Valley
today.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 202141
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
141 PM PST Sat Dec 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Mainly light Rain and light amounts of high elevation mountain
snow continue tonight, diminishing on Sunday. Dry Monday and
Tuesday under high pressure ridge. There is a chance another
system may impact the region Wednesday into Christmas Day.

&&

.Discussion...

A weak warm front is moving through the region. The atmosphere is
very moist so there is a chance of showers. Any showers should be
light for most areas other than in the far north where there is a
greater chance of seeing some moderate rain. Snow levels will be
rising throughout the evening so expect them to remain above
major trans-sierra pass levels.

Moisture will continue to stream into the region through Sunday
evening before a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
interior to keep things dry for several days. Fog may become an
issue each night and morning starting Monday morning.

Today`s chilly temperatures are actually around normal for us this
time of year. As the ridge builds expect most temperatures to warm
well above normal...10 to 15 degrees above normal. Redding could
be flirting with reaching 70 degrees on Tuesday. Further south in
the valley moist air and morning fog and a temperature inversion
may limit the amount of warm up. I expect adjacent foothills to
end up being warmer.


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the Christmas
Eve system, although they are in slightly better agreement than 12
hours ago. The ECMWF remains to be the most bullish, bringing
potentially moderate snow and modest Valley rain to the area. The
operational GFS brushes by the northeastern portion of the state,
bringing Lassen Park some light snow. The Parallel (Hi-Res) GFS is
a blend of the two. The GEM has the farthest north storm track and
would be dry altogether for NorCal. With a majority of models now
showing at least some precipitation, we`ve increased our PoP
forecast accordingly.

Drier northwesterly flow moves over the area in the wake of the
system heading into next weekend. This could bring colder
overnight temperatures.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions continue