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000
FXUS66 KLOX 222357 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
455 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/2355Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z WAS 700
FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 24 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
AT KLGB WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
11Z-15Z THU...WITH A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING...AND AT
KLAX WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS THRU THU.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
12Z-16Z. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00S TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTITY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED IMTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 222239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE COASTAL RANGES
OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL RAIN ON AND OFF IN CEC THIS AFTERNOON.
H2OV IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A NICE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AT THE
NORTH COAST WHICH WILL BRING WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO MOST OF
NORTHWEST CA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTITY STILL RESIDES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS MAINTAIN SOME
FRONTAL ACTION NEAR THE ORCA BORDER BUT LIFTS IT TO THE NORTH AND
LEAVES THE CWA MAINLY DRY. BUT MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
WETTER...COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. BFG/JT/STP

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH WEST COAST TONIGHT.  CEC
AIRPORT REPORTED IMTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING.
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY GUSTY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN HAS BASICALLY BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE BUT WILL REACH THE COAST TONIGHT... RAIN...WIND AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT STEADILY TREKS TOWARDS
THE AREA...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INCREASING STEEP WAVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY A LARGE WESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS
WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222223
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
323 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN ON THURSDAY THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL TO NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A COUPLE OF DEGS
WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...THE WEAK TAIL
END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN SOUTH TO NEAR BODEGA BAY...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL TOTALS
LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL NORTH BAY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN WESTWARD FROM
THE INTERIOR. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH A LIKELIHOOD
OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT
BOTH LATEST NAM DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES...AND SREF MUCAPE PLUMES...INDICATE A SUFFICIENT
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST OF MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS ALL BUT
POSSIBLY THE EASTERNMOST MARGIN OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING IN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP TO THE NORTH BAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONFINES ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO AREAS
NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BIG SUR COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS/DRP

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 222209
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
309 PM PDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Synopsis...
A slow moving weather system will bring a roller coaster of
wet/dry/wet weather to end the work week into the weekend.
Thursday will see the first wave impact mainly the coastal range
and northern Sacramento valley. Dry and a rebound in temperatures
Friday with increasing south winds late Friday. Saturday through
Sunday will see widespread precipitation with breezy winds and
isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Saturday night will bring some
high elevation snow to northern Sierra, and lingering showers
Sunday. Next week will continue below average temperatures with periods of
precipitation in the north.

&&

Clouds are increasing across northern California as the first
weather system pushes inland. Most of the energy with this first
wave looks to be across the Northern Sacramento valley and
mountains, north of Interstate 80 during the day Thursday. Temperatures
will be just slightly below normal, expect San Joaquin valley
where temperatures will be near normal. As the parent weather
system digs late Thursday, a ridge will build overhead, essentially
drying things out and warming temperatures once again. Also, an
increasing pressure gradient will increase south winds late Friday
into Saturday. At this time, winds are not expected to be strong
enough for any headlines, but those with holiday decorations may
want to secure them, or move indoors. The main weather system will
move into northern California Saturday through Sunday. Saturday
looks like a good fetch of moisture will bring widespread rains to
a majority of the valley. Even the northern San Joaquin Valley
looks to also see some light rain amounts. Temperatures on
Saturday are expected to be below average. With the main trough
passage late Saturday and Saturday night, there is a slight chance
for some thunderstorms, mainly over the northern valley and
mountains. Also, snow levels are expected to lower to between
6500-7000 feet. Some light snow accumulations are also possible
overnight Saturday night.

The models show the main trough moving east of California Sunday,
but differ on the amount of precipitation that will linger with
its departure. Therefore continued a chance of showers, but showed
a decreasing south to north trend through the day.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

There is some discrepancies in the models as far as the timing of
the trough exiting northern California Sunday/Sunday night.
Therefore, have lingered showers over northern California through
the day, then shifted to the northern mountains and lowered to
slight chance Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday, the models
show a progressive flow ushering in weak pacific weather systems
across northern California. However, the exact strength and timing
of each wave is uncertain. Therefore, after what looks like a dry
day on Monday, have continued a chance of precipitation Tuesday
and Wednesday. It does appear the best moisture/energy from each
wave will impact locations north of Interstate 80. Temperatures
will remain at to just below normal, with readings in the lower to
mid 70s.

Mead
&&

.Aviation...

Increasing high and mid clouds as the cold front approaches, but
TAF sites should remain VFR through this evening. Generally light winds
for the Valley, around 10kt or less. Rain will gradually begin to
spread into the northern Sacramento Valley after 00z this
evening. KRDD and KRBL may have reduced visibilities during
showers after 12z, but expect those sites to hover between MVFR/VFR.
Light rain expected across much of our CWA between Thursday
morning into evening. JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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000
FXUS65 KREV 222202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN NORTHERN CA, WE`LL SEE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN LASSEN, PLUMAS AND MODOC COUNTIES. TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET UP TO 0.25"
OF RAINFALL, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 395 WILL GET 0.10" OR
LESS. SINCE MOST OF THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000-10000FT OR MORE.

INCREASED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AREA FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE IN THE
DAY. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUDS THURSDAY
AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE.

BY FRIDAY, A STRONG JET MAX MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL LIFT THE
RIDGE OVER NEVADA, PULLING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. WE`VE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SO WE`VE ALSO LOWERED
THE WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ADVANCING TROUGH OFF THE
NORCAL COAST WILL SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WITH RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 50 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE MAIN
CHANGES CONCERN TIMING VARIANCES AS MODELS RESOLVE MAJOR FEATURES.
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND, FOR INSTANCE, HAS SLOWED A
LITTLE. THEREFORE, IT WAS NECESSARY TO TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOSTLY OUT OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. AS THE WAVE SPLITS,
ANOTHER JET IMPULSE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WHILE SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE MORE LATITUDINAL RATHER THAN THE EASTWARD PUSH WE WERE
EXPECTING BEFORE. THE PATTERN`S SHIFT WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD WITH LESS SPILLING OVER INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NEVADA. SPECIFICALLY, EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. WHILE WINDS DECREASE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THESE CHANCES OF MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
EXIT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TRANSITING
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL
ARRIVE OVER THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SIERRA. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA WITH THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DEGRADED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON SATURDAY AT SIERRA TERMINALS. WH/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 222138
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS. VERY LIGHT HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THAT
WILL SPILL OVER INTO ARIZONA BUT WILL NOT POSE AN IMPACT TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS PHOENIX. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RISING HEIGHTS STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...2-4 DM EACH DAY...AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OVER 590MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW A STEADY WARMING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY FRIDAY.

MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASE IN MOISTURE VALUES JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH PWAT VALUES
AS OBSERVED BY SATELLITE READING AROUND 1.5 INCHES...IS UPWARDS OF
190 PERCENT OF NORMAL. QUITE A STRONG...COLD...AND MOIST TROUGH
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST...BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE AS THE
STRONGEST IMPACT AREA FOR THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL FALLING HEIGHTS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-12 DM BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO 3-5 DM
OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND COMPARED WITH WHAT WE WILL SEE LATE THIS
WEEK...NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THIS WEEK`S FORECAST BUT ONLY
MEASURING UP AT SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. AS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD...BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL
IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. A MOSTLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRETTY
HIGH LCL HEIGHT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST 2
DAYS...WITH CONTINUED PROLONGED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATER THIS WEEK...

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
OCT 24      96 IN 2007
OCT 25      96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WILL
PREVAIL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO








000
FXUS66 KLOX 222119
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY. WARMING IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAY`S READINGS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TO
HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGHS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK TO NEUTRAL OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MIGHT BE SOME FORMING OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA TONIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK EDDY FORMING BUT NOT THAT STRONG.

AS EVIDENT IN HEIGHT FALLS MIDDAY FRIDAY...THINGS BEGIN
TRANSITIONING ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S TROUGH PASSAGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND INTENSITY
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH PUNCH TO
IT AT ALL THIS FAR SOUTH. MODEL QPF REMAINS HEAVIEST MUCH FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH WHERE THERE`S BETTER FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON
SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LOOKS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THAT VIEW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE COOLING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY TO MAKE IT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL LA AND VTU COUNTIES.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC
ACTUALLY PUTS A WEAK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FAR. IN
GENERAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
NOTHING TOO WILD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME RESURGENT
ON SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 222047
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
147 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VALLEY TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND...ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...RAIN IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW THAT THE AREA WILL SEE ANY
RAIN...GIVEN THAT THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST KEEPS TRENDING DRIER AND
DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST STILL INDICATES
VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE RESULT OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THE COOLING
TREND WHICH WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN FEEL A
FEW DEGREES COOLER! SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 222002
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
102 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ACCORDING
TO LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ANY NIGHT
AND MORNING MARINE LAYER APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR
NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER AGAIN. THERES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THAT IS STILL 9 TO 10 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON
THAT OCCURRING YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 500-800 FEET
MSL AND VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ANY LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221847
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1713Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS...ALBEIT SOME DOUBT ABOUT KLGB AND
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THAT SITE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 221743
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221743
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICT-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW
TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BEYOND 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...YET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KT. STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 221634
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW SPELL SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP THIS MORNING.
LATEST LAX TO DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS -1.9 TO HELP KEEP AWAY ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. HIGHS TODAY ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW 70S
BEACHES...THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DESERTS.
OVERALL. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY TODAY. ONLY REAL FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS
THE LOCALLY GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS.  THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION TONIGHT SO SOME STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO LA
COUNTY TONIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...THEN COOLING
THIS WEEKEND UNDER A PASSING TROUGH.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/935 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 221625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 221625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 221609
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S...GREAT FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY IN THE DAY.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE ARE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST COAST AS OUR TROUGH FEATURE
HAS SINCE MOVED EASTWARD. A FEW DAYS OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
TO 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ARE IN STORE. ADDED IN SOME MINOR EDITS AND TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE
PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 140 AM MST/PDT 22 OCTOBER/...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ
ON TUESDAY HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 19-21C RANGE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 21-24C
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LOWER
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
1ST GOOD FALL SEASON TROF MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...BRINGING THE 1ST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT OF THE
SEASON TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM AROUND 588DM ON SATURDAY INTO THE 576-578MB RANGE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RISING
INTO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AND REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
FROM THIS TROF PASSAGE WILL BE A INCREASE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES...WITH ALL PRECIP...AND MOST CLOUDS REMAINING WELL
TO OUR NORTH.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THEN CROPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS WEAK TROFING OVER THE SW US...WHILE THE
EURO MOVES THIS TROF OFF TO THE EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAK
RIDGING BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH BOTH MODELS KEEPING OUR CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FROM OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z THU...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS
GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 15 MPH...WITH 20 MPH WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 221609
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH MORNING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S...GREAT FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY IN THE DAY.
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE ARE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST COAST AS OUR TROUGH FEATURE
HAS SINCE MOVED EASTWARD. A FEW DAYS OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
TO 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ARE IN STORE. ADDED IN SOME MINOR EDITS AND TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE
PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 140 AM MST/PDT 22 OCTOBER/...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ
ON TUESDAY HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 19-21C RANGE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 21-24C
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LOWER
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
1ST GOOD FALL SEASON TROF MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...BRINGING THE 1ST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT OF THE
SEASON TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM AROUND 588DM ON SATURDAY INTO THE 576-578MB RANGE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RISING
INTO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AND REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
FROM THIS TROF PASSAGE WILL BE A INCREASE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES...WITH ALL PRECIP...AND MOST CLOUDS REMAINING WELL
TO OUR NORTH.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THEN CROPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS WEAK TROFING OVER THE SW US...WHILE THE
EURO MOVES THIS TROF OFF TO THE EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAK
RIDGING BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH BOTH MODELS KEEPING OUR CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FROM OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z THU...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS
GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 15 MPH...WITH 20 MPH WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ








000
FXUS66 KSGX 221524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING
AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER AND PATCHIER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A
MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND 1100 FEET WITH 24 HOUR WARMING
FROM 950 MB THROUGH THE REST OF THE PROFILE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP IN
ORANGE COUNTY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING FOG. THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER IS AS RESULT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS IS LIKELY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL COASTAL WATER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME INCREASE IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...AS THE SAN
DIEGO TO TONOPAH GRADIENT IS 5.9 MB OFFSHORE CURRENTLY...WHEREAS IT
WAS 0.1 MB ONSHORE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER
APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF
FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND
THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER
AGAIN. THE FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE
GFS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INLAND INTO UTAH/COLORADO AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
221530Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM ORANGE
COUNTY THIS MORNING. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS






000
FXUS66 KEKA 221157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
457 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NW TO THE SE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO NW CALIFORNIA AND STRONG GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS TO THE
COASTAL RANGES OF DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TAKING AIM AT NW CAL. LIGHT
RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT CRESCENT CITY THIS MORNING WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS NW CAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE NNW TO THE SSE. AS IT DRIPS INTO
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY, MODEL INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING OUT
THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THU. WITH THIS
BOUNDARY STALLING OUT, A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THU AND INTO FRI. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AS A RESULT OF
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THIS
WARM FRONT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SOME DRYING AND CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE`LL SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT AND WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST
THE COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
COLD FRONT TO BE RATHER POTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DO DIFFER IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WE GET
BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT AND BEGIN TO SEE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP.

OVERALL LOOK FOR A WET FEW DAYS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH, 6KFT+, WITH
LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BFG

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU WED)...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS
A POST FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
MOIST NW FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING...BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH A TROF OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALMOST A WEEK OUT IN TIME...THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND WETTER...COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. STP

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS A COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS NW CAL. DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOK FOR LIFR/IFR.
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CEC WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CEC WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP, WHICH IT
ALREADY HAS, THEN ACV LATE MORNING AND UKI IN THE EVENING. TIMING
SHOULD BE GOOD IN THE TAFS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
BFG

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10Z NEAR SHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 9 TO
10 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 12 SECONDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE
WATERS. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE STEEP SEAS TO
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470 FROM
9 AM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO THE
WEEKEND. STP

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 221132
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
432 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KSTO 221132
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
432 AM PDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry today under weak high pressure with a weak weather system
bringing precipitation chances north of interstate 80 Thursday. A
few lingering showers possible Friday with another system bringing
precip chances to most of the forecast area Saturday. More chances
of precipitation for NORCAL during the middle of next week.
Daytime temperatures below normal through the coming week.

&&

Northern California currently under flat high pressure ridge for
dry conditions across the north state. A weak Pacific frontal band
now moving inside 130 west is currently spreading high cloudiness
across most of the forecast area. It should warm up a bit over
yesterday under the ridge of high pressure but overall airmass
remains on the cool side so daytime highs today likely to come in
a little below normal. The weak frontal band is forecast to push
onto the coast tonight and drop southeast through NORCAL during
the day on Thursday. Dynamics with this system weaken as it moves
inland into the high pressure ridge and QPF values are expected to
remain fairly light. The heaviest amounts of rainfall will be
along the coast range and over the Shasta county mountains with
lighter amounts farther east as the system weakens. Friday looks
fairly dry at this time with models placing a rebuilding ridge
over the western U.S. ECMWF a little more progressive with the
next Pacfic storm system so left some precip over the coast range
Friday. May need to remove precip chances for Friday if subsequent
model runs keep precip offshore. Daytime highs will push upward on
Friday but still are likely to coming in below normal for the
season. Models in fairly good agreement in bringing a stronger
more consolidated frontal system into NORCAL on Saturday.
Precipitation amounts do not appear to be especially high but most
areas of NORCAL should get some rainfall and successive runs have
come in with a higher precip amount trend. Much cooler conditions
and breezy winds will accompany this system.

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Showers will remain possible on Sunday as an upper trough moves
through the Pacific northwest and NORCAL. Most of the shower
activity should remain north of interstate 80 during the day.
Daytime highs will remain well below normal under cool airmass and
cloudy skies. Extended models remain in good agreement on Monday
showing a high pressure ridge rebuilding over the west coast.
Daytime highs warm Monday but still remain below normal for this
time of year. Next in series of Pacific frontal systems is
currently forecast to push into the northwest corner of the state
on Tuesday but models begin to diverge on timing. GFS the
fastest...ECMWF the slowest and looks like GEM is somewhere in
between. ECMWF model also weaker and farther north with this
system while GFS would bring precip to most of the forecast area.
For now...have gone middle of the road keeping majority of precip
north of interstate 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions today with increasing high and mid clouds ahead of
an approaching cold front. Generally light winds for the Valley,
around 10kt or less. Rain will gradually begin to spread into the
northern Sacramento Valley after 00z this evening. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 221034
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KDAG
HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING. HGTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AS AN EAST PAC RIDGE EXPANDS. SBA
SOUTH COAST SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED. THE BEST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AT THE
MOMENT. IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH ALMOST ALL CST AND
VLY HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SOME MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WILL DRIVE MANY TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY COOL THINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT. A LITTLE EDDY COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO THE LONG BEACH-LAX AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
WINDS BUT NOTHING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY SAVE FOR THE LONG BEACH LOW
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXCEPT OVER THE LONG BEACH AREA.

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS AN EAST PAC TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FLOW OVERHEAD TURN TO THE SW. HGTS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 585 DM 4 OR 5 DM HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL STILL
BE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW JUST A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY OR THU. SO OVER
ALL LOOK FOR A SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BUT JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THU.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A BIG CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A TROF AND
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR THE MARINE LAYER AND THINK IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE THERE IS WIDESPREAD STRATUS. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. EC HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS GUNG HO RAIN
FCST IT HAD LAST NIGHT. IT STILL BRINGS RAIN THROUGH MOST OF SBA AND
SLO COUNTIES BUT NOW IT IS DRY ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTY. THE OTHER
MDLS HAVE A WEAKER AND DRIER FRONT AND DO NOT BRING ANY RAIN TO THE
AREA. SO RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE THE
BIG STORY WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE TROF AND SFC FRONT SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THERE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS OF VTA AND LA COUNTY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND 576 DM HGTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4
TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

A WEAK RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER HGTS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE MARINE INVERSION AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE AND THE SFC FLO WILL TREND
OFFSHORE THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1000Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0700Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/245 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

THE RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 221006
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT, SIERRA
RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER, WITH GUSTS ACROSS RIDGETOPS
INCREASING TO 30-50 MPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO MEDIUM FOR THE PACIFIC TROUGH
TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PLUMAS, LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE HIGH, LIKELY IN THE 0.75 TO 0.85 INCH RANGE, BUT
FORCING FOR LIFT FAIRLY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFT WEST OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
PORTOLA, DECREASING TO 0.10 TO 0.20 FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC LOW AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIFT. IF THAT OCCURRED, THESE PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY
DOUBLE DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER SUCH THAT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. NONETHELESS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GRADIENT-DRIVEN GUSTS
TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD
CREATE FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS NEVADA ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHERN CA NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN NV, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WASHOE VALLEY AND THE I-80
CORRIDORS, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING MONO COUNTY.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS UP TO 45 MPH
(IN WIND PRONE AREAS 50-60 MPH), AND ACROSS RIDGETOPS 60-80 MPH.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT TRAVELERS, ESPECIALLY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND AVIATION EAST OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT. JCM

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE STICKING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST CA BY SAT MORNING
AND THEN CROSSING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DURING THE DAYTIME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND ALLOWED US TO GO AHEAD AND
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY. LOWER CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH AS MAIN MOISTURE PUSH STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN CA
BEFORE WANING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS A BIT BETTER THAN PREVIOUS TROUGHS. SO EVEN THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES FROM WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES. WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE TRACKING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER
ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMUP OCCURS MON-TUE
UNDER WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW
WARMING MONDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40KT. MJD/WH


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 221006
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT, SIERRA
RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER, WITH GUSTS ACROSS RIDGETOPS
INCREASING TO 30-50 MPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO MEDIUM FOR THE PACIFIC TROUGH
TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PLUMAS, LASSEN, MODOC AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE HIGH, LIKELY IN THE 0.75 TO 0.85 INCH RANGE, BUT
FORCING FOR LIFT FAIRLY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPE LIFT WEST OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO
PORTOLA, DECREASING TO 0.10 TO 0.20 FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC LOW AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIFT. IF THAT OCCURRED, THESE PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY
DOUBLE DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER SUCH THAT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. NONETHELESS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GRADIENT-DRIVEN GUSTS
TO 30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD
CREATE FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS NEVADA ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHERN CA NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SET UP ACROSS
WESTERN NV, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WASHOE VALLEY AND THE I-80
CORRIDORS, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA INCLUDING MONO COUNTY.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS UP TO 45 MPH
(IN WIND PRONE AREAS 50-60 MPH), AND ACROSS RIDGETOPS 60-80 MPH.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT TRAVELERS, ESPECIALLY HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND AVIATION EAST OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT. JCM

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE STICKING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST CA BY SAT MORNING
AND THEN CROSSING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DURING THE DAYTIME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND ALLOWED US TO GO AHEAD AND
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY. LOWER CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH AS MAIN MOISTURE PUSH STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN CA
BEFORE WANING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS A BIT BETTER THAN PREVIOUS TROUGHS. SO EVEN THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES FROM WESTERN
LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES. WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE TRACKING ALONG THE OREGON BORDER
ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMUP OCCURS MON-TUE
UNDER WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW
WARMING MONDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN POSSIBLY REACHING
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER RIDGES WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40KT. MJD/WH


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 220958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 220958
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:58 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE BOARD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER WEATHER
MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
REGARDING HOW MUCH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HOW LOW PRECIP
WILL BE HELD OFF. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE OUT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:29 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KHNX 220953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN CA THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.

WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS UNFORTUNATE TREND WITH THE PAST TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME RANGE WE ARE
SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER AS WE START TO GET INTO THE DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE WE
ARE SEEING LESS MOISTURE AND BY THE TIME WE ARE IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME RANGE WE ARE SEEING EVEN LESS AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
EVENT WE ARE SEEING NO MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WELL THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TO BE NO DIFFERENT. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM12 GOES
OUT TO 84 HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) AND IT IS SHOWING A VERY DRY FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THE CONTINUED OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF AND WE
ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN ITS WET SOLN ATTM. IT HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE QPF AND THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS NEAR
THE EVENT.

THE TROUGH IS A QUICK HITTER AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME WARMING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED. WE HAVE ADDED
CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON POPS IN THE
SIERRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 220953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN CA THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.

WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS UNFORTUNATE TREND WITH THE PAST TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME RANGE WE ARE
SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER AS WE START TO GET INTO THE DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE WE
ARE SEEING LESS MOISTURE AND BY THE TIME WE ARE IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME RANGE WE ARE SEEING EVEN LESS AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
EVENT WE ARE SEEING NO MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WELL THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TO BE NO DIFFERENT. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM12 GOES
OUT TO 84 HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) AND IT IS SHOWING A VERY DRY FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THE CONTINUED OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF AND WE
ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN ITS WET SOLN ATTM. IT HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE QPF AND THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS NEAR
THE EVENT.

THE TROUGH IS A QUICK HITTER AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME WARMING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED. WE HAVE ADDED
CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON POPS IN THE
SIERRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








000
FXUS66 KSGX 220949
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MAKING A SHALLOWER APPEARANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MORNING STRATUS RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL STRIP THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RELATION TO THE FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY...THEN PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AROUND 592 DM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP ACROSS ALL AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST WARMING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND BRING A
WIDESPREAD DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TO OUR REGION...AS A RESULT OF A
MASSIVE PAC NW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF SAN
DIEGO...TEMPERATURES WILL SWAY FROM NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTLY...MID
NEXT WEEK IS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING INSIDE SLIDER SYSTEM THAT
COULD GENERATE AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT AROUND THURSDAY. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
220930Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL. AREAS VIS 3-5SM ON COASTAL MESAS. FULL SCATTER
OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16Z. EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MOST LIKELY ONLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 800 FEET MSL AND VIS
3-5SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY FADING DURING THE DAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








000
FXUS65 KPSR 220932
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ
ON TUESDAY HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 19-21C RANGE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 21-24C
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LOWER
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
1ST GOOD FALL SEASON TROF MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...BRINGING THE 1ST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT OF THE
SEASON TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM AROUND 588DM ON SATURDAY INTO THE 576-578MB RANGE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RISING
INTO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AND REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
FROM THIS TROF PASSAGE WILL BE A INCREASE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES...WITH ALL PRECIP...AND MOST CLOUDS REMAINING WELL
TO OUR NORTH.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THEN CROPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS WEAK TROFING OVER THE SW US...WHILE THE
EURO MOVES THIS TROF OFF TO THE EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAK
RIDGING BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH BOTH MODELS KEEPING OUR CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FROM OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 04Z THU...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS
GENERALLY FROM 8 TO 15 MPH...WITH 20 MPH WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 220840
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE WEAK UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ
ON TUESDAY HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WHILE ALSO KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. 850MB TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 19-21C RANGE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AT
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 21-24C
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LOWER
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR JUST ONE DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD...WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
1ST GOOD FALL SEASON TROF MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...BRINGING THE 1ST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT OF THE
SEASON TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
FROM AROUND 588DM ON SATURDAY INTO THE 576-578MB RANGE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RISING
INTO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...AND REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ON
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
FROM THIS TROF PASSAGE WILL BE A INCREASE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES...WITH ALL PRECIP...AND MOST CLOUDS REMAINING WELL
TO OUR NORTH.

SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT THEN CROPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS WEAK TROFING OVER THE SW US...WHILE THE
EURO MOVES THIS TROF OFF TO THE EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WEAK
RIDGING BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH BOTH MODELS KEEPING OUR CWA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...JUST WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FROM OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. TYPICAL
DOWNVALLEY/DRAINAGE PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERNOON WINDS BECOMING WEAK
UPVALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 220528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1028 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0525Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 1100 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING AT KSMX...AND IFR CONDS AT KLGB
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 10Z-16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220513
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 220513
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL EASE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 220440
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY MINOR PATCHES OF CIRRUS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A
PASSING TROUGH. A PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST FRIDAY WITH THE AXIS CLOSE TO THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME EVEN WARMER ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES. IN FACT...SOME STATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORDS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 253 PM...
THE BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MIGRATING TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA CONTINUE THEIR TREK THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SEEM NEARLY UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND STILL
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 ACROSS METRO PHOENIX AND MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FEATURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS
OUR CWA AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND RISING HEIGHTS OF 2-4 DM EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE GRADUALLY. BY FRIDAY,
PHOENIX WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (24 OCTOBER
RECORD STANDS AT 96F SET IN 2007). THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL HEAD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BODE WELL FOR
A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER STARTING
AT 1938Z (1238 PM MST/PDT LOCAL) AND PEAKING AT 2145Z (245PM MST/PDT
LOCAL). WHILE ARIZONA IS ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF BEST VIEWING
LOCATIONS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO VIEW A PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THIS TIME.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. TYPICAL
DOWNVALLEY/DRAINAGE PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERNOON WINDS BECOMING WEAK
UPVALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 220440
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY MINOR PATCHES OF CIRRUS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A
PASSING TROUGH. A PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST FRIDAY WITH THE AXIS CLOSE TO THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME EVEN WARMER ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES. IN FACT...SOME STATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORDS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 253 PM...
THE BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MIGRATING TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA CONTINUE THEIR TREK THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SEEM NEARLY UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND STILL
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 ACROSS METRO PHOENIX AND MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FEATURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS
OUR CWA AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND RISING HEIGHTS OF 2-4 DM EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE GRADUALLY. BY FRIDAY,
PHOENIX WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (24 OCTOBER
RECORD STANDS AT 96F SET IN 2007). THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL HEAD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BODE WELL FOR
A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER STARTING
AT 1938Z (1238 PM MST/PDT LOCAL) AND PEAKING AT 2145Z (245PM MST/PDT
LOCAL). WHILE ARIZONA IS ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF BEST VIEWING
LOCATIONS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO VIEW A PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THIS TIME.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. TYPICAL
DOWNVALLEY/DRAINAGE PATTERNS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERNOON WINDS BECOMING WEAK
UPVALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KSGX 220436
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUD COVERAGE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1500 FEET...ABOUT 1000
FEET LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL STAY SHALLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ABSENCE OF THIS COOLER
MARINE AIRMASS WILL BRING WARMING TO INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS FROM
85-90. THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE
MARINE LAYER FROM THE COASTAL ZONES...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY TO
START THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN MODERATE-HIGH AGREEMENT...WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERING BY ONLY 2-4 DM. DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
A RESULT OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A SMALLER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SIMILAR LOW-MODERATE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS REPRESENTED IN EACH MODELS RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE. GIVEN
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD DECLINE 5-10 DEGREES SATURDAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECLINE OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO REACH THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER BENIGN WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS. MODELS SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF "ANA" INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
220400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY STRATUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 10
MILES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST THROUGH 06Z...THEN BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 800 FT MSL...POSSIBLY LESS...AFTER 11Z WED. TOPS
WILL BE TO 1200 FT MSL. ORANGE COUNTY WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 2-4 MI
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z IN COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WITH LOCAL VIS BELOW 2 MI. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN
14-16Z WED...WITH LESS STRATUS WED NIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY HAS HAD SEAS OF 10 FEET SO FAR THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL...BUT THIS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD MOSTLY
BE 5-7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL BE MODERATELY LONG...15
SECONDS TONIGHT...SHORTENING TO 13 SECONDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEST FACING
BEACHES WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE VERSUS TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE SURF WILL BE 3 TO 6 FEET WITH A FEW SETS TO 7 FEET. SURF
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE/BA
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MAXWELL












000
FXUS66 KMTR 220410
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:03 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 60S TO THE 70S...AND LOWS WERE IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER
50S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MANY
AREAS AROUND THE REGION FOR WHAT IS NOW...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE HOW
FAST 2014 IS PASSING US BY...LATE OCTOBER. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING.

THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INCREASES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COUNT FROM 4 TO 5 AROUND THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MAKING IT FAVORABLE FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO STRENGTHEN WHEN THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING WESTWARD BACK TO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED...DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS IN THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING WHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MOSTLY ON THE
PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN CANADA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERNMOST CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. DRIER
WEATHER MAY RETURN AS SOON AS SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOW LONG THE WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
LASTS NEXT WEEK IS A TOUGH QUESTION TO ANSWER. ANOTHER E PAC
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS THUS THERE IS MUCH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS WEATHER DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
MEAN FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING
RAINFALL TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
OF  A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:57 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 220357
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
857 PM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon with some
high clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts Northern
CA with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend.
Chances for the areas south of the I-80 corridor to receive
precipitation increase Friday night and Saturday. Significant
rainfall is possible over the far northern sections of the state
through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Friday)...
Zonal dry flow will continue with just some high clouds moving
through the area. through Wednesday. Temperatures will cool in the
valley tonight into the 40s and lower 50s for the valley and in
the 30s for the mountain valleys.

A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska will start to spread
precipitation along the northwest coast late Wednesday and into
the far northern interior sections of the state Wednesday night
into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday is when chances
increase mainly for areas north of I-80. This will be the first
wave of precipitation to move into California.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday out over the
Pacific a second front forms and becomes a little bit more
oriented north to south and is slowing down. This looks like it
may result in mainly dry conditions for the interior sections
Thursday night and Friday. Friday night and Saturday is when the
front pushes inland given areas the greatest chance of widespread
rain over the entire interior along with some higher elevation
snow and windy conditions.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

GFS/EC/GEM in fairly good agreement with timing of Pacific frontal
system early in the extended. Front progged through Interior
NorCal Friday night into Saturday morning followed by associated
upper trough Saturday. Differences do exist with QPF with GFS
advertising about double the amount of precip compared to the EC.
Models currently not showing a lot of post-frontal instability but
the pattern suggests it, and thus will need to consider adding
mention of thunderstorms as the event draws near. Lingering threat
of showers Saturday night then slight chance over the Shasta
mountains Sunday. Below normal temperatures expected over the
weekend with mid 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and 40s
to 60s for the mountains and foothills. Some accumulating snow
possible Saturday with snow levels ranging from around 6500 ft in
the Shasta mountains, and 7000 to 8000 ft from Lassen Park to
Sierra Nevada.

Dry weather Monday as weak ridging moves through then models
suggest potential for some light WAA precip over northern portions
of the CWA Tuesday.



&&

.Aviation...

Wly flow alf with VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs. Sfc wnds
genly aob 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 220357
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
857 PM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon with some
high clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts Northern
CA with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend.
Chances for the areas south of the I-80 corridor to receive
precipitation increase Friday night and Saturday. Significant
rainfall is possible over the far northern sections of the state
through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Friday)...
Zonal dry flow will continue with just some high clouds moving
through the area. through Wednesday. Temperatures will cool in the
valley tonight into the 40s and lower 50s for the valley and in
the 30s for the mountain valleys.

A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska will start to spread
precipitation along the northwest coast late Wednesday and into
the far northern interior sections of the state Wednesday night
into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday is when chances
increase mainly for areas north of I-80. This will be the first
wave of precipitation to move into California.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday out over the
Pacific a second front forms and becomes a little bit more
oriented north to south and is slowing down. This looks like it
may result in mainly dry conditions for the interior sections
Thursday night and Friday. Friday night and Saturday is when the
front pushes inland given areas the greatest chance of widespread
rain over the entire interior along with some higher elevation
snow and windy conditions.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

GFS/EC/GEM in fairly good agreement with timing of Pacific frontal
system early in the extended. Front progged through Interior
NorCal Friday night into Saturday morning followed by associated
upper trough Saturday. Differences do exist with QPF with GFS
advertising about double the amount of precip compared to the EC.
Models currently not showing a lot of post-frontal instability but
the pattern suggests it, and thus will need to consider adding
mention of thunderstorms as the event draws near. Lingering threat
of showers Saturday night then slight chance over the Shasta
mountains Sunday. Below normal temperatures expected over the
weekend with mid 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and 40s
to 60s for the mountains and foothills. Some accumulating snow
possible Saturday with snow levels ranging from around 6500 ft in
the Shasta mountains, and 7000 to 8000 ft from Lassen Park to
Sierra Nevada.

Dry weather Monday as weak ridging moves through then models
suggest potential for some light WAA precip over northern portions
of the CWA Tuesday.



&&

.Aviation...

Wly flow alf with VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs. Sfc wnds
genly aob 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 220349
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A MINOR UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SKY
COVER EARLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY STAY
CLEAR LONGER OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE RIDES OVER A WEAK FLAT
RIDGE. UPDATES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...AND WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE
PINT AND CLICK FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO THE ZONE FORECAST. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 220349
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
849 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A MINOR UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SKY
COVER EARLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
WEST AND THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY STAY
CLEAR LONGER OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE RIDES OVER A WEAK FLAT
RIDGE. UPDATES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...AND WILL MOSTLY AFFECT THE
PINT AND CLICK FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO THE ZONE FORECAST. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KLOX 220314
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
815 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL START A MODEST WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...HIGH TEMPS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
IN A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THE
SAN LUCIA MTN OFFSHORE WINDS HELPED TO CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE TODAY.
MOST VALLEYS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WERE JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
MOVING NW TO SE WITH THE BROAD UPPER NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR NOW THERE IS
SOME STRATUS IN THE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN LA COUNTY COAST
AS A VERY WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH THIS DOMINANT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-BFL AND SBA-SMX
WOULD THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHILE
SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SANTA CLARITA VALLEY SHOULD
RECEIVE GUSTS TO 30 WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WHILE THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
405 CORRIDOR INTO VAN NUYS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND ALTHOUGH NW WINDS AROUND GAVIOTA HAVE NOT BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE...THE LATEST SBA-BFL GRADIENT WAS CLIMBING TO -5.2 MB.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ZONE AFFECTING THE HILLS
ABOVE AND AROUND MONTECITO. SO WILL BE ADDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TO GO ALONG WITH THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT WAS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A DECENT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL FOCUS OUT OF THE SAN LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

AS FAR AS OFFSHORE WINDS FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...NOT LOOKING
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. LAX-DAG WILL LIMP TO JUST UNDER -2 MB BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND WITH WITH THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE WITH TEMPS...WITH MORE WARMING FOR
THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS ON THU WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
FOR THE LA/VTU COAST. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK...TEMPS
COULD BE TRICKY ALONG THE LA/VTU COAST ALLOWING A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATHCY DENSE FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST EARLY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN A BIT
EARLIER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHICH SHOULD BRING A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THU/FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 PM...

NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...STRONGEST BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THE SOMEWHAT LONG PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS HAS PRODUCED LARGE COMBINED SEAS...AS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES COMBINE WITH A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 10-14 FEET AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WINDS START TO SUBSIDE
AROUND 3 AM. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL HOWEVER SEAS CONTINUE TO BE A LARGER MIX OF LONG AND
SHORTER PERIODS...PEAKING AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7-8 SECONDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






















000
FXUS66 KMTR 220008
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
508 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING RAINFALL
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. WILL INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
OF  A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:57 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: JOHNSON

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 220005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0000Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2350Z WAS 1200 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS 09Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KPRB AFTER 10Z THROUGH
16Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS ALL INLAND TAFS SITES AND SBA/VTA
COUNTY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR KLGB AND KLAX AFTER
09Z-16Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF THROUGH 06Z..THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO 50 PERCENT FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



















000
FXUS66 KSTO 212239
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon with some
high clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts Northern
CA with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend.
Chances for the areas south of the I-80 corridor to receive
precipitation increase Friday night and Saturday. Significant
rainfall is possible over the far northern sections of the state
through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Friday)...
Weak ridging over the area bringing mostly sunny skies and dry
weather today. Temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s
in the Valley and mid 40s to low 60s in the mountains this
afternoon which is several degrees below normal for this time of
year. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with
highs in the 70s in the Valley and 50s and 60s in the mountains,
which is near normal for this time of year. The weak ridge shifts
east as the trough deepens late Wednesday. Precipitation is
expected to enter the Coastal range around Wednesday evening and
spread southeast to around the I-80 corridor on Thursday morning.
Precipitation will continue on Thursday...mainly North of I-80.
The trough continues to deepen along the west coast on Friday. The
front may become more north- south oriented oriented on Friday
continuing the rain along the coastal range and Shasta county but
not much farther east. Snow levels are expected to generally be
above 8500 feet Thursday and Friday. The trough moves onto the
coast Saturday spreading the chance of precipitation across all of
interior Northern California.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

GFS/EC/GEM in fairly good agreement with timing of Pacific frontal
system early in the extended. Front progged through Interior
NorCal Friday night into Saturday morning followed by associated
upper trough Saturday. Differences do exist with QPF with GFS
advertising about double the amount of precip compared to the EC.
Models currently not showing a lot of post-frontal instability but
the pattern suggests it, and thus will need to consider adding
mention of thunderstorms as the event draws near. Lingering threat
of showers Saturday night then slight chance over the Shasta
mountains Sunday. Below normal temperatures expected over the
weekend with mid 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and 40s
to 60s for the mountains and foothills. Some accumulating snow
possible Saturday with snow levels ranging from around 6500 ft in
the Shasta mountains, and 7000 to 8000 ft from Lassen Park to
Sierra Nevada.

Dry weather Monday as weak ridging moves through then models
suggest potential for some light WAA precip over northern portions
of the CWA Tuesday.



&&

.Aviation...

Wly flow alf with VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs. Sfc wnds
genly aob 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 212239
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon with some
high clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts Northern
CA with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend.
Chances for the areas south of the I-80 corridor to receive
precipitation increase Friday night and Saturday. Significant
rainfall is possible over the far northern sections of the state
through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Friday)...
Weak ridging over the area bringing mostly sunny skies and dry
weather today. Temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s
in the Valley and mid 40s to low 60s in the mountains this
afternoon which is several degrees below normal for this time of
year. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday with
highs in the 70s in the Valley and 50s and 60s in the mountains,
which is near normal for this time of year. The weak ridge shifts
east as the trough deepens late Wednesday. Precipitation is
expected to enter the Coastal range around Wednesday evening and
spread southeast to around the I-80 corridor on Thursday morning.
Precipitation will continue on Thursday...mainly North of I-80.
The trough continues to deepen along the west coast on Friday. The
front may become more north- south oriented oriented on Friday
continuing the rain along the coastal range and Shasta county but
not much farther east. Snow levels are expected to generally be
above 8500 feet Thursday and Friday. The trough moves onto the
coast Saturday spreading the chance of precipitation across all of
interior Northern California.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

GFS/EC/GEM in fairly good agreement with timing of Pacific frontal
system early in the extended. Front progged through Interior
NorCal Friday night into Saturday morning followed by associated
upper trough Saturday. Differences do exist with QPF with GFS
advertising about double the amount of precip compared to the EC.
Models currently not showing a lot of post-frontal instability but
the pattern suggests it, and thus will need to consider adding
mention of thunderstorms as the event draws near. Lingering threat
of showers Saturday night then slight chance over the Shasta
mountains Sunday. Below normal temperatures expected over the
weekend with mid 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley and 40s
to 60s for the mountains and foothills. Some accumulating snow
possible Saturday with snow levels ranging from around 6500 ft in
the Shasta mountains, and 7000 to 8000 ft from Lassen Park to
Sierra Nevada.

Dry weather Monday as weak ridging moves through then models
suggest potential for some light WAA precip over northern portions
of the CWA Tuesday.



&&

.Aviation...

Wly flow alf with VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs. Sfc wnds
genly aob 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 212222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THEN THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
SYSTEM IS DISPLAYING A FIREHOUSE TYPE PATTERN WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)....BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOW
COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE QPF. THE SURFACE LOW POSITION IN THE
ECMWF IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS AND NOT AS DEEP SO WINDS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS MAY END UP BEING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE WITH
REGARD TO IMPACT. WITH THAT SAID A DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE
COASTLINE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ONE ISSUE WITH REGARD TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
COAST FLOW THE OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
REALIZED AND THIS MAY CAUSE QPF VALUES TO BE LIMITED AT LEAST ON THE
COASTAL HILLS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DIFFER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER LAND FALLING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. MKN



&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
CEC AND VICINITY PICKED UP NEARLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT UKI CIGS/VIS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS
FOR TODAY...THE REGION CAME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWED A PLETHORA A MOSTLY
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTING REGIONAL AIRPORTS WILL BE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL RAIN WILL START IN THE FAR
NORTH COAST LATE TONIGHT... AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND INLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TA


&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED
MON EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN
REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. THE SCA WILL END IN
455 ON THU. MKN

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KREV 212155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 212155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING THE JET AND A
NARROW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS THE PACIFIC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THURSDAY OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY GET
SQUEEZED OUT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER
OREGON, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 0.50 INCH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WEST OF A LINE
FROM SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA. RAIN SHOULD REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
IF ANY TYPE OF WAVE OR SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT ACCOMPANIES THE
LOW, PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD EASILY BE DOUBLE THE AMOUNTS
LISTED ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH ALONG 140W. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
LIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY START TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING OVER LASSEN, PLUMAS AND NORTHERN WASHOE AND
SHOULD END BY FRIDAY MORNING. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTH FLOW TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER DURING THE MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, CLEARING
SKIES ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
INCREASES FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH REACHES THE SIERRA. 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 60 KT ARE INDICATED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LEE
SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LASSEN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON CITY REGION
AND INTO MONO COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASED GUST POTENTIAL TO
45 MPH, BUT THERE COULD BE STRONGER GUSTS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET REACHES THE SIERRA.

FOR SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING A
SPLITTING TROUGH, THE LATEST DATA TRENDED BACK TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
BAND REACHING WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY WHEN
THE TROUGH IS TAPPING DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THIS MOISTURE TAP WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FROM RENO-CARSON CITY EASTWARD. LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS
OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE, WHILE
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV.

FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING
EXTREME NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV BY TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE BY THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80. AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS, CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KPSR 212153
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MIGRATING TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA CONTINUE THEIR TREK THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SEEM NEARLY UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND STILL
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 ACROSS METRO PHOENIX AND MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FEATURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS
OUR CWA AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND RISING HEIGHTS OF 2-4 DM EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE GRADUALLY. BY FRIDAY,
PHOENIX WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (24 OCTOBER
RECORD STANDS AT 96F SET IN 2007). THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL HEAD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BODE WELL FOR
A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER STARTING
AT 1938Z (1238 PM MST/PDT LOCAL) AND PEAKING AT 2145Z (245PM MST/PDT
LOCAL). WHILE ARIZONA IS ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF BEST VIEWING
LOCATIONS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO VIEW A PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT 21 OCTOBER 2014)...
A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
ABBREVIATED IN TIME THAN USUAL...WITH MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS65 KPSR 212153
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MIGRATING TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA CONTINUE THEIR TREK THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SEEM NEARLY UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND STILL
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 ACROSS METRO PHOENIX AND MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FEATURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS
OUR CWA AND MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN JUST BELOW AN INCH WITH DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND RISING HEIGHTS OF 2-4 DM EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE GRADUALLY. BY FRIDAY,
PHOENIX WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (24 OCTOBER
RECORD STANDS AT 96F SET IN 2007). THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL HEAD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO 588DM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BODE WELL FOR
A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER STARTING
AT 1938Z (1238 PM MST/PDT LOCAL) AND PEAKING AT 2145Z (245PM MST/PDT
LOCAL). WHILE ARIZONA IS ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF BEST VIEWING
LOCATIONS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO VIEW A PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT 21 OCTOBER 2014)...
A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
ABBREVIATED IN TIME THAN USUAL...WITH MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT INTO THE
WEEKEND...ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER VALUES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPERIENCED THE PAST WEEK...WITH MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS66 KHNX 212150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 9
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDING
TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT BEST...NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES MAY SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BRUSHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVING US NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...LOCATION...AND ANY POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.

ONE THING WE ARE CONFIDENT ON...IS THE FACT THAT THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 212150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 9
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDING
TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT BEST...NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES MAY SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BRUSHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVING US NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...LOCATION...AND ANY POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.

ONE THING WE ARE CONFIDENT ON...IS THE FACT THAT THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 212115
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS CRUISING THROUGH
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA SO
FAR. HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF SOME BUILDING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HELP WARM THINGS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF
THAT WARMING HAS STARTED TODAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SUNDOWNER
WINDS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S WHEN SOME OF THE HIGHER
AREAS OF MONTECITO EXPERIENCED WIND GUSTS JUST OVER 40 MPH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT SO WIND ADVISORY IS
IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FOR SIMILAR WINDS THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE USUAL SPOTS...DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE. GRADIENTS
WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO HELP GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH PRETTY SIMILAR AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO...SOME SPOTS WARMER FRIDAY...SOME SPOTS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MODELS ARE NOW ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING
A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AT THIS POINT
SWINGING ITS MAIN AXIS THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. 12Z
GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ON SATURDAY...FRONT APPEARS PRETTY WEAK
THIS FAR SOUTH WITH BEST QPF WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LEFT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION AS IS FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME DON`T EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TROF`S INTENSITY
FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.

THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS 10 TO IN SOME PLACES 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND PLENTY BELOW
NORMAL...HELPING IT FEEL VERY FALL LIKE. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND
CANYONS.

SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EC PAST SUNDAY AS FAR AS
THE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE IN BEHIND SATURDAY`S TROUGH. BUT IN
GENERAL RISING HEIGHTS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/200 PM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR
MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SBA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON/KH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
















000
FXUS66 KMTR 212059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
159 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW...INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO BRING RAINFALL
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY DISTINCT CUT-OFF
FROM AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL AND THOSE THAT WILL REMAIN
DRY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WITH THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHILE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST MODELS THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...PUSHING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...DRYING
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH BAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS AND LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. ALSO EXPECTING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
FORECAST MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...OR DIVERGE FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST AND PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO START OUT TONIGHT...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 12Z WED. WILL INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS
FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE
RIDGE POSITION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH 12Z WED. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS OR VSBY WITH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK WED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 212015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND
WILL LOWER HIGHS AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SUNDAY...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE 21/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONG TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

HIGHS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
211945Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST...MOSTLY IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND
700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
1245 PM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE
OUTER WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1245 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE LARGER SURF
TODAY MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS








000
FXUS66 KLOX 211803
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1701Z IS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES C.

POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB TAF FROM
18Z...OTHERWISE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS. MAIN QUESTION FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE TAFS IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KMTR 211801
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST AND PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO START OUT TONIGHT...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 12Z WED. WILL INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS IN PREVAILING GROUPS
FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A PATCHY FOG SITUATION GIVEN THE
RIDGE POSITION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH 12Z WED. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS OR VSBY WITH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK WED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 211649
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
949 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through Wednesday afternoon with some
high clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts northern
CA with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend.
Chances for the areas south of the I-80 corridor to receive
precipitation increase Friday and Saturday. Significant rainfall
is possible over the far northern sections of the state through
Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Friday)...
Weak ridging over the area bringing a break in precipitation today.
Local patchy fog around Sacramento and some mountain valleys like
Chester this morning with moisture from yesterdays rain and clear
skies and cool temperatures this morning. Temperatures this
morning are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday
morning. Afternoon temperatures should warm up similar to
yesterday with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a little
warmer on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s in the Valley
and 50s and 60s in the mountains. The weak ridge shifts east as
the trough deepens late Wednesday. Precipitation is expected to
enter the Coastal range around Wednesday evening and spread
southeast to around the I-80 corridor on Thursday morning.
Precipitation will continue on Thursday...mainly North of I-80.
The trough continues to deepen along the west coast on Friday. The
front may become more north-south oriented oriented on Friday
continuing the rain along the coastal range and Shasta county but
not much farther east. Snow levels are expected to be above 8500
feet Thursday and Friday.

Previous Discussion...
Friday night and Saturday is when the front pushes inland given
areas the greatest chance of widespread rain over the entire
interior along with some higher elevation snow and windy
conditions. Significant rainfall is likely over the mountains of
Shasta county into the weekend.


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Timing is still not consistent but models do end up bringing a
decent system through the interior Friday night and Saturday. Both
the European and GFS indicate rain spreading through the interior
Friday night. The GFS is a bit faster clearing out during the day
on Saturday while the European tries to linger the system around
into Sunday. This system in addition to the higher elevation snow
and windy conditions will likely bring thunderstorms to the
interior.

The European then develops a ridge over the area while the GFS
keeps a zonal flow pattern over the Pacific. If the GFS pattern
works out then some more rain for the far northern sections of the
state will be possible by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...

Generally VFR conditions in the valley today with decreasing
clouds and winds generally 10 kt or less.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211646
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
946 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THAT PEAKS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AN INCREASE IN COASTAL OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-FRI)...THE UPPER TROF MOVED BY THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND LEFT IN ITS WAKE SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IN CLOUD COVER IS OVER
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON THIS HOUR IN A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH SLO
COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND CLOUDS HUGGING THE VTU
COUNTY NORTH SLOPES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN MOST AREAS WHEN AVERAGED OVER THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNDOWNER WINDS STARTING
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE AS STRONG IF NOT A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN A BUILDING RIDGE TO USHER IN A
BRIEF WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND THEN ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STILL
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY MORNING CANYON WINDS BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/900 AM...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...JACKSON

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KSGX 211628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CREATE NEAR-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND WILL LOWER
HIGH AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 8 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
21/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A WEAK 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER
INVERSION...WITH LOW CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2800 FT MSL. FLOW ALONG THE
COLUMN WAS MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER
INVERSION WILL LET MOST AREAS WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER.

THE 21/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 21/0600 GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...THEN DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT- WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE GFS HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CA. THE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
211615Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITY BY 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST...MOSTLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
915 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
915 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 211628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CREATE NEAR-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND WILL LOWER
HIGH AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 8 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
21/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED A WEAK 5 DEG C MARINE LAYER
INVERSION...WITH LOW CLOUD TOPS AROUND 2800 FT MSL. FLOW ALONG THE
COLUMN WAS MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER
INVERSION WILL LET MOST AREAS WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CA. EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER.

THE 21/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 21/0600 GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...THEN DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT- WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE GFS HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
HAS WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CA. THE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
211615Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITY BY 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST...MOSTLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH
LOWER CIGS AROUND 700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTAL MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
915 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
915 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING
DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE
THE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR
START TO THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO
A COOLER START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MANY SPOTS (WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT
THIS TIME). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY -- MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE
END OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT
IT FOR NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS
BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN
THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN JUST
24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS
WHILE THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF
AND MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 211554
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
902 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 AM MST ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARIZONA WHERE IT
REMAINS A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING/AND
PARTS OF UTAH. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE THIS MORNING...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 413 AM MST/PDT /...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211414 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND BUT
THEY WILL BE WARM AGAIN IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 211202
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
502 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL END THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HUMBOLDT
BAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THE RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN
SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE CWA. RIDGE TOPS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON FRIDAY THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY
WET...EVENTUALLY LIFTING THE RAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER IN DRYING THE AREA OUT. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WORKING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AS A FIREHOUSE TYPE OF
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...FOCUSING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH VALUES OF IVT. FOR
QPF...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CNRFC AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE EAST. STP

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THRU TUE)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM. BY FRI NIGHT...THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING N OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND A SOLID BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE WITH
QPF NUMBERS...WITH THE ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
THE MORE N LOW POSITION IN THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT REGARDLESS OF
EXACT LOW POSITION...DEEP AND MOIST FLOW IMPACTING THE COASTLINE HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW WILL BE MORE S/N BY THE TIME THE FRONT
COMES ONSHORE. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY SAT...BUT BOTH
MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP BY LATE SAT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF SHIFTS OVER THE W COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. ALTHO MODELS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE W COAST OF THE US. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED...MAINLY
NORTH OF HUMBOLDT BAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN SOME OF THE
INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS OBSERVED. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STP

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE IN S WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LARGE W SWELL THAT PEAKED MON EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT ON WED AS
ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ENTERS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE N OFFSHORE WATERS AS NO BREAK IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE 1ST SWELL TRAIN...THE WIND INCREASE...AND THE 2ND SWELL.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION HAZARDOUS NEAR SHORE SURF IN THE MWW...
ALTHO THIS THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY TODAY. /SEC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 211134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...OFFSHORE
IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ














000
FXUS65 KPSR 211114
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
413 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z WED...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A FEW WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES NORTH OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT NEAR 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LIGHT WIND IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED...HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ















000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211105 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 211104
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DEDENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTIUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADINET HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABREIL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADITATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE ABIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.
IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO AGRESSIVE
SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE COVERAGE ACROSS
THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO BITE
ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE MDLS SAY LATER
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

21/0530Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 211048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
350 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE WEST TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR INLAND AREAS...A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER...AND WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLING AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FOLLOWED BY WARMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE INNER SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL WATERS
INLAND INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND NORTHWARD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND INTO SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. FOR AREAS
FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE MARINE INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
WITH STRATUS COVERAGE PATCHIER. CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 1500 TO
LOCALLY 2000 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OCCURRED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE...THOUGH
STILL WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH NOT AS FAR INLAND WITH THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND LESSER DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING. THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE GFS LESS SO. THIS WILL
BRING COOLING FOR SUNDAY AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DEPENDING UPON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARMING
WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
210930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL MUCH OF THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WITH TOPS UP TO
2500 FEET WITH LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT OF CLOUDS IN
INLAND VALLEYS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED FROM 17-19Z. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MOST LIKELY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000-1200 FEET MSL AND MOVE
NOT VERY FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE OUTER
WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING LARGER SURF TODAY
MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT
HAZARD LATE THIS MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO
LOW TIDE. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM









000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 211004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
304 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAS LEAD TO A COOLER
START. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY SPOTS
(WHICH IS 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY -- MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, HIGHS
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.

BY THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH NORCAL. RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY 1/3" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DROPPING OFF TO NEAR ZERO DOWN TO AROUND SAN FRANCISCO, SO
EXPECTATIONS ARE IT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GEM SOLUTION REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE (EVEN BRINGING SOME DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY).
THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING HOW THE END
OF THE NAM IS TRENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING), SO WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR
NOW.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES TO THE COAST. IT HAS BEEN
FUN TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW DAYS AGO, ALL INDICATIONS WERE THE RAIN WOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONT WOULD FALL APART NEAR OUR AREA. RUN AFTER RUN
HAS GOTTEN WETTER AND NOW ALL OF THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOME TIME BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD
BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE SOLUTIONS IS NOW NOTABLY WETTER THAN EVEN
JUST 24 HOURS AGO. IT BRINGS 1/3"-1/2" AROUND SF WITH LOCALLY MORE
THAN 2/3" OVER THE NORTH BAY. GFS IS SHOWING SIMILAR NUMBERS WHILE
THE GEM BRINGS 1-2" TO THE NORTH BAY WITH AROUND 1/2" TO SF AND
MONTEREY BAY. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE ADVERTISING HEALTHY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, POPS WERE INCREASED DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SW FACING SPOTS NEAR THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CROSS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 211002
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL
CA LAST EVENING BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS TO OUR
CWFA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
REPORTING GUSTS JUST ABOVE 40 MPH. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF THE
AFTERNOON AS P-GRADS RELAX.

MEANWHILE...FOG IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS
BANKED UP ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR TEHACHAPI ALONG HIGHWAY 58 THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WHEN
P-GRADS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE 06Z WRF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRIOR RUNS INDICATING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY WHILE A MOISTURE FETCH TAKES AIM AT
THE PAC NW AND EXTREME NORCAL. THE ONLY IMPACT THE MOISTURE FETCH
WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN MOST AREA
IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA ON
SATRUDAY NIGHT AS IT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOST AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ALONG AS OVER THE
NORMALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY.

FINALLY...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO CA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211002
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL
CA LAST EVENING BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS TO OUR
CWFA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
REPORTING GUSTS JUST ABOVE 40 MPH. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF THE
AFTERNOON AS P-GRADS RELAX.

MEANWHILE...FOG IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS
BANKED UP ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR TEHACHAPI ALONG HIGHWAY 58 THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WHEN
P-GRADS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE 06Z WRF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRIOR RUNS INDICATING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY WHILE A MOISTURE FETCH TAKES AIM AT
THE PAC NW AND EXTREME NORCAL. THE ONLY IMPACT THE MOISTURE FETCH
WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN MOST AREA
IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA ON
SATRUDAY NIGHT AS IT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOST AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ALONG AS OVER THE
NORMALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY.

FINALLY...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO CA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211002
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL
CA LAST EVENING BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS TO OUR
CWFA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
REPORTING GUSTS JUST ABOVE 40 MPH. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF THE
AFTERNOON AS P-GRADS RELAX.

MEANWHILE...FOG IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS
BANKED UP ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR TEHACHAPI ALONG HIGHWAY 58 THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WHEN
P-GRADS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE 06Z WRF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRIOR RUNS INDICATING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY WHILE A MOISTURE FETCH TAKES AIM AT
THE PAC NW AND EXTREME NORCAL. THE ONLY IMPACT THE MOISTURE FETCH
WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN MOST AREA
IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA ON
SATRUDAY NIGHT AS IT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOST AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ALONG AS OVER THE
NORMALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY.

FINALLY...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO CA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211002
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL
CA LAST EVENING BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS TO OUR
CWFA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
REPORTING GUSTS JUST ABOVE 40 MPH. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF THE
AFTERNOON AS P-GRADS RELAX.

MEANWHILE...FOG IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS
BANKED UP ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR TEHACHAPI ALONG HIGHWAY 58 THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WHEN
P-GRADS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE 06Z WRF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRIOR RUNS INDICATING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY WHILE A MOISTURE FETCH TAKES AIM AT
THE PAC NW AND EXTREME NORCAL. THE ONLY IMPACT THE MOISTURE FETCH
WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN MOST AREA
IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA ON
SATRUDAY NIGHT AS IT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOST AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ALONG AS OVER THE
NORMALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY.

FINALLY...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO CA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 211002
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
302 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL
CA LAST EVENING BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS TO OUR
CWFA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
REPORTING GUSTS JUST ABOVE 40 MPH. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN TAPER OFF THE
AFTERNOON AS P-GRADS RELAX.

MEANWHILE...FOG IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS
BANKED UP ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHES OF
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR TEHACHAPI ALONG HIGHWAY 58 THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WHEN
P-GRADS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

THE 06Z WRF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRIOR RUNS INDICATING AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA ON WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY WHILE A MOISTURE FETCH TAKES AIM AT
THE PAC NW AND EXTREME NORCAL. THE ONLY IMPACT THE MOISTURE FETCH
WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO RISES IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND NORCAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN MOST AREA
IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWFA ON
SATRUDAY NIGHT AS IT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND POOR ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL RUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN
MOST AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASED WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ALONG AS OVER THE
NORMALLY WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY.

FINALLY...A DRY UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO CA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR OUR AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 210938
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY
OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR ONE
INCH AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING
MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE TO AROUND 588DM. MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR HIGHS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD END UP BEING
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 95 AT PHOENIX
IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THE DAY.

A LESS CLEAR PICTURE IS SHOWN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG
PV ANOMALY BREAKING OFF FROM A NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE. EITHER WAY...LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SHOWN TO
ACCOMPANY THIS POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CHANGES OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO AGREE
THAT AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE OVER STARTING SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...PROBABLY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











000
FXUS66 KSTO 210835
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
135 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through Wednesday with some high
clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA
with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend. Chances
for the southern areas to receive precipitation increase Friday
and Saturday. Significant rainfall is possible over the far
northern sections of the state through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...

Low pressure area has moved into Nevada and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Today with just some high clouds
moving through the area. A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska
will start to spread precipitation along the northwest coast late
Wednesday and into the far northern interior sections of the state
Wednesday night into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday
is when chances increase mainly for areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the eastern interior sections while the coastal
range may continue to see some precipitation. Friday night and
Saturday is when the front pushes inland given areas the greatest
chance of widespread rain over the entire interior along with some
higher elevation snow and windy conditions. Significant rainfall is
likely over the mountains of Shasta county into the weekend. Five
plus inches for the favored south and southwestern facing slopes
looks possible.



.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Timing is still not consistent but models do end up bringing a
decent system through the interior Friday night and Saturday. Both
the European and GFS indicate rain spreading through the interior
Friday night. The GFS is a bit faster clearing out during the day
on Saturday while the European tries to linger the system around
into Sunday. This system in addition to the higher elevation snow
and windy conditions will likely bring thunderstorms to the
interior.

The European then develops a ridge over the area while the GFS
keeps a zonal flow pattern over the Pacific. If the GFS pattern
works out then some more rain for the far northern sections of the
state will be possible by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions in the valley today with decreasing clouds and
winds generally 10 kt or less. Areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys in
the mountains through 12z with LCL LIFR/IFR conditions in isolated
showers, then improving to VFR by 18z as low pressure exits. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 210835
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
135 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through Wednesday with some high
clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA
with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend. Chances
for the southern areas to receive precipitation increase Friday
and Saturday. Significant rainfall is possible over the far
northern sections of the state through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...

Low pressure area has moved into Nevada and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Today with just some high clouds
moving through the area. A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska
will start to spread precipitation along the northwest coast late
Wednesday and into the far northern interior sections of the state
Wednesday night into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday
is when chances increase mainly for areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the eastern interior sections while the coastal
range may continue to see some precipitation. Friday night and
Saturday is when the front pushes inland given areas the greatest
chance of widespread rain over the entire interior along with some
higher elevation snow and windy conditions. Significant rainfall is
likely over the mountains of Shasta county into the weekend. Five
plus inches for the favored south and southwestern facing slopes
looks possible.



.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Timing is still not consistent but models do end up bringing a
decent system through the interior Friday night and Saturday. Both
the European and GFS indicate rain spreading through the interior
Friday night. The GFS is a bit faster clearing out during the day
on Saturday while the European tries to linger the system around
into Sunday. This system in addition to the higher elevation snow
and windy conditions will likely bring thunderstorms to the
interior.

The European then develops a ridge over the area while the GFS
keeps a zonal flow pattern over the Pacific. If the GFS pattern
works out then some more rain for the far northern sections of the
state will be possible by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions in the valley today with decreasing clouds and
winds generally 10 kt or less. Areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys in
the mountains through 12z with LCL LIFR/IFR conditions in isolated
showers, then improving to VFR by 18z as low pressure exits. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 210835
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
135 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through Wednesday with some high
clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA
with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend. Chances
for the southern areas to receive precipitation increase Friday
and Saturday. Significant rainfall is possible over the far
northern sections of the state through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...

Low pressure area has moved into Nevada and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Today with just some high clouds
moving through the area. A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska
will start to spread precipitation along the northwest coast late
Wednesday and into the far northern interior sections of the state
Wednesday night into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday
is when chances increase mainly for areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the eastern interior sections while the coastal
range may continue to see some precipitation. Friday night and
Saturday is when the front pushes inland given areas the greatest
chance of widespread rain over the entire interior along with some
higher elevation snow and windy conditions. Significant rainfall is
likely over the mountains of Shasta county into the weekend. Five
plus inches for the favored south and southwestern facing slopes
looks possible.



.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Timing is still not consistent but models do end up bringing a
decent system through the interior Friday night and Saturday. Both
the European and GFS indicate rain spreading through the interior
Friday night. The GFS is a bit faster clearing out during the day
on Saturday while the European tries to linger the system around
into Sunday. This system in addition to the higher elevation snow
and windy conditions will likely bring thunderstorms to the
interior.

The European then develops a ridge over the area while the GFS
keeps a zonal flow pattern over the Pacific. If the GFS pattern
works out then some more rain for the far northern sections of the
state will be possible by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions in the valley today with decreasing clouds and
winds generally 10 kt or less. Areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys in
the mountains through 12z with LCL LIFR/IFR conditions in isolated
showers, then improving to VFR by 18z as low pressure exits. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 210835
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
135 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry zonal flow will persist through Wednesday with some high
clouds at times. An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA
with potential rain from Wednesday night into the weekend. Chances
for the southern areas to receive precipitation increase Friday
and Saturday. Significant rainfall is possible over the far
northern sections of the state through Saturday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...

Low pressure area has moved into Nevada and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Today with just some high clouds
moving through the area. A low pressure area in the gulf of Alaska
will start to spread precipitation along the northwest coast late
Wednesday and into the far northern interior sections of the state
Wednesday night into Thursday. Late Wednesday night and Thursday
is when chances increase mainly for areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the eastern interior sections while the coastal
range may continue to see some precipitation. Friday night and
Saturday is when the front pushes inland given areas the greatest
chance of widespread rain over the entire interior along with some
higher elevation snow and windy conditions. Significant rainfall is
likely over the mountains of Shasta county into the weekend. Five
plus inches for the favored south and southwestern facing slopes
looks possible.



.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Timing is still not consistent but models do end up bringing a
decent system through the interior Friday night and Saturday. Both
the European and GFS indicate rain spreading through the interior
Friday night. The GFS is a bit faster clearing out during the day
on Saturday while the European tries to linger the system around
into Sunday. This system in addition to the higher elevation snow
and windy conditions will likely bring thunderstorms to the
interior.

The European then develops a ridge over the area while the GFS
keeps a zonal flow pattern over the Pacific. If the GFS pattern
works out then some more rain for the far northern sections of the
state will be possible by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions in the valley today with decreasing clouds and
winds generally 10 kt or less. Areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys in
the mountains through 12z with LCL LIFR/IFR conditions in isolated
showers, then improving to VFR by 18z as low pressure exits. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 210548 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1048 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES AND TO BEGIN REDUCING
SHOWERS. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING NOW AS THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH
THE 395 CORRIDOR WITH PEAK GUSTS NOW ONLY AROUND 30 MPH EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FAR AS RAIN, THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH LAKE TAHOE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WASHOE COUNTY. WITH THIS BAND WEAKENING AND THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER, REDUCED MOST AREAS TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS INSTABILITY.
THE EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF THE BAND OVER PERSHING COUNTY IS
WEAKER THAN FORECAST AND ALSO FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE,
REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. AFTER A COOL DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.

SHORT TERM...

QUICK MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LOW THIS EVENING ARE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM SOUTH LAKE TAHOE TO LOVELOCK.

FOR THE WINDS...PEAK GUSTS IN THE VALLEY OF 35-45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 395. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON TRACK FROM 6 TO 10 PM
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, HOWEVER DO THINK 40-50
MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH 3 AM.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST THIS EVENING, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS UP TO 0.50 INCH OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY. AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE WEST
SHORE OF TAHOE WHERE UP TO 0.20 INCH IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, THOUGH AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET, THOUGH
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 6000-6500 FEET.

BEHIND THE LOW AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR TUESDAY WITH
THE NEVADA VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH 50S FOR THE SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY. BRONG

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS INTACT WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION,
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS OCCURRING ANYTIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY, BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, THEN RETREAT FARTHER NORTH AS
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 130W. WE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR, HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES AND COULD EVEN PUSH
INTO THE MID 80S IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING AND MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUICK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NV. THE MOISTURE TAP WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
SO RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS
MOISTURE BAND WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SATURDAY SO FROM RENO-CARSON EASTWARD, ONLY SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
PROJECTED AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST
AREAS.

WEAK RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
LIGHT EAST WINDS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE A STRONGER INVERSION, FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHT WARM UP ON MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA.
MJD

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORT
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS. RIDGE GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL REACH
65-70 KT, WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LEE SIDE TURBULENCE.

BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND SPREAD TO NORTHWEST NV AND THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY COULD OCCUR BTWN 02-05Z
FOR KTVL/KTRK DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO
GERLACH LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY. HOHMANN/MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210540
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1040 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR. A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 210536 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8
PM...GENERATING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES
CANYON. WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND
MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS
EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0530Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0500Z WAS 1000 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

MARINE INVERSION WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PD. AS A RESULT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS DEVELOPING
WOULD BE AT KLAX AND KLGB AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH MAINLY
MVFR TO LOCAL HIGH IFR CONDS EXPECTED.


KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE PD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z.


&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 210457
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH HELPED CAUSE THE STORMS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS BEING NUDGED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND B.C. CANADA. THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN WITH JUST A BRUSH-BY FOR ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
THUS...HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. OF
NOTE...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BROADER AREA OF CAPE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING PINAL AND PORTIONS OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
CHARACTERISTICALLY...THE NAM IS MORE GENEROUS IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE GFS. THE NAM HAS PEAK VALUES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OF 400-450 J/KG AND THE GFS PEAKS AT ABOUT 150 J/KG.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS ALSO HAS LARGER CIN VALUES. THE LATEST SREF
ALSO HINTS AT SOME CAPE FOR TUESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON IN ORDER TO INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 257 PM...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS ALREADY MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY...AND ALSO
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD. MLCAPES ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 100
J/KG ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND AROUND 0 ACROSS YUMA EL CENTRO.
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOWER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID
80S COMPARED TO MID 90S YESTERDAY.

ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE SHAPING UP TO MAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...I WILL HOLD SHORT OF SAYING
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING. I WILL RETAIN THE 20-30
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY AND KEEP SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA...OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE WEST WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT THE
END OF OUR MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN AND RE-ORIENT THE BEST STORM CHANCES
WELL NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE
IN UTAH BUT THERE`S CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC FORCING. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG EVENT WHATSOEVER...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL ABOUT WE SEE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...POSSIBLY A BIT CLOSER TO APACHE JUNCTION
THAN WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING SOUTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY
MAJOR WIND EVENTS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED
BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KSGX 210426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
BRINGING COOLER DAYS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE MARINE
IDENTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE AIRMASS
IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL PROMOTE FASTER CLEARING
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COOLING.

ON WEDNESDAY AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. WARMEST DAYS WILL
BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS IS A STRONGER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
ITS ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH BRINGING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER PT CONCEPTION. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE
TO THE RECENT POOR TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF. THE PREFERRED GFS
MODEL IS WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A MARINE LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
PROJECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA
GETTING PICKED UP IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE LONG RANGE PROGS
FORECAST A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHING THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH BASES OF 1400-2000 FT MSL. CLOUD
TOPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FT MSL. THROUGH
14Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH 18-25 MILES INLAND OVER SAN DIEGO AND
ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. RESTRICTED VIS OF 3 SM OR LESS WILL
OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN...THIS INCLUDES
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...AND KRNM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW TO SCT
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SKC PREVAILING IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SKC IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH 12Z. A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
AT 15 SEC. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT ITS GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL TO
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA








000
FXUS66 KSGX 210426
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL SHRINK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MUCH WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
BRINGING COOLER DAYS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
VALLEYS THIS EVENING. A WISP OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE MARINE
IDENTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE AIRMASS
IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL PROMOTE FASTER CLEARING
TUESDAY ALONG WITH MINOR COOLING.

ON WEDNESDAY AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. WARMEST DAYS WILL
BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY TURN WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS IS A STRONGER TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
ITS ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOWN HERE. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST SOUTH BRINGING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER PT CONCEPTION. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE
TO THE RECENT POOR TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF. THE PREFERRED GFS
MODEL IS WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A MARINE LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
PROJECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA
GETTING PICKED UP IN THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE LONG RANGE PROGS
FORECAST A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHING THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CA.

&&

.AVIATION...
210300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH BASES OF 1400-2000 FT MSL. CLOUD
TOPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FT MSL. THROUGH
14Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH 18-25 MILES INLAND OVER SAN DIEGO AND
ORANGE COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. RESTRICTED VIS OF 3 SM OR LESS WILL
OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN...THIS INCLUDES
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...AND KRNM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW TO SCT
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SKC PREVAILING IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SKC IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEAR SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
THROUGH 12Z. A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
AT 15 SEC. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT BEACHES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LARGER SURF MAINLY TO WEST
FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF DEL MAR. STRONGER RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP...WITH THE RIP CURRENT DANGER AT ITS GREATEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING DURING THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH TIDE TO LOW TIDE. SEE
LAXSRFSGX FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ON WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO WARMER AND DRIER INLAND.
THE DRY AIR WILL TREND FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEUTRAL TO
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 MPH BRIEFLY IN THE MOST WIND PRONE PASS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 MPH OR
LESS THIS PERIOD. INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...RH WILL DROP TO
15-20 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TUESDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA









000
FXUS66 KSTO 210424
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
924 PM PDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Frontal system will continue cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances through tonight...mainly for the mountains.
An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA with potential
showers from Wednesday night into the weekend.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...
The central core of the low pressure system continues to push
inland this evening. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue for a couple more hours before gradually dissipating
after midnight. The earlier thunderstorms over Shasta County
brought some strong thunderstorms the produced some heavy
rainfall and hail up to dime size. One gauge near Shasta Dam
recorded half and inch in less than an hour.

The low will move into Nevada overnight and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Tuesday. A low pressure area in the
gulf of Alaska will start to spread precipitation along the
northwest coast late Wednesday and into the far northern interior
sections of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. Late
Wednesday night and Thursday is when chances increase mainly for
areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the interior sections while the coastal range may
continue to see some precipitation. Friday night is when the front
pushes inland given the greatest chance of widespread rain over the
entire interior along with some higher elevation snow.



.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will continue the end of
the week through the weekend. A low in the gulf of Alaska will
slowly move south and send disturbances inland over northern
California and the Pacific Northwest. The first such weather
system will move over northwest CA early Thursday and spread light
showers across the northern Sacramento valley by Thursday
afternoon/evening. By the weekend, the main weather system will
move inland over Oregon and Washington and spread more showers
into northern California. There is some discrepancy in the models
as to how much moisture/energy make it into the valley and how
fast the system moves through. At this time, have continued the
chance of showers in the forecast through the weekend. There`s
also a possibility of light snow accumulations Saturday night in
the northern Sierra. Progressive pattern looks to continue into
early next week, but timing and strength of systems is uncertain
at this time.
Mead


&&

.Aviation...

Scattered showers over the mountains will gradually taper off
late tonight. VFR in the valley with areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys
in the mountains through 12z with LCL IFR conditions. Conditions
improving after 12z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 210424
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
924 PM PDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Synopsis...
Frontal system will continue cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances through tonight...mainly for the mountains.
An elongated frontal system impacts northern CA with potential
showers from Wednesday night into the weekend.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Thursday)...
The central core of the low pressure system continues to push
inland this evening. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue for a couple more hours before gradually dissipating
after midnight. The earlier thunderstorms over Shasta County
brought some strong thunderstorms the produced some heavy
rainfall and hail up to dime size. One gauge near Shasta Dam
recorded half and inch in less than an hour.

The low will move into Nevada overnight and zonal dry flow will
set up behind the front for Tuesday. A low pressure area in the
gulf of Alaska will start to spread precipitation along the
northwest coast late Wednesday and into the far northern interior
sections of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. Late
Wednesday night and Thursday is when chances increase mainly for
areas north of I-80.

As the low deepens on Thursday night into Friday the front begins
to shift and become a little bit more oriented north to south.
This may dry out the interior sections while the coastal range may
continue to see some precipitation. Friday night is when the front
pushes inland given the greatest chance of widespread rain over the
entire interior along with some higher elevation snow.



.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will continue the end of
the week through the weekend. A low in the gulf of Alaska will
slowly move south and send disturbances inland over northern
California and the Pacific Northwest. The first such weather
system will move over northwest CA early Thursday and spread light
showers across the northern Sacramento valley by Thursday
afternoon/evening. By the weekend, the main weather system will
move inland over Oregon and Washington and spread more showers
into northern California. There is some discrepancy in the models
as to how much moisture/energy make it into the valley and how
fast the system moves through. At this time, have continued the
chance of showers in the forecast through the weekend. There`s
also a possibility of light snow accumulations Saturday night in
the northern Sierra. Progressive pattern looks to continue into
early next week, but timing and strength of systems is uncertain
at this time.
Mead


&&

.Aviation...

Scattered showers over the mountains will gradually taper off
late tonight. VFR in the valley with areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys
in the mountains through 12z with LCL IFR conditions. Conditions
improving after 12z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 210358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE NEXT STORM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE SFO BAY AREA AND THE
NORTH BAY TODAY. UP TO ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE NORTH
BAY COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND SFO BAY AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR MIST OCCURRED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MRY BAY AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND IT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM NEAR THE HILLS TONIGHT BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING
LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG 140W ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE IMPROVING THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN THERE WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS AND 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS
DRIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 210326
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8 PM...GENERATING
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES CANYON. WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 210326
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. TIGHTENING NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ALREADY
SEEING SBA-SANTA MARIA GRADIENT CLIMBING TO -3.6 MB AS OF 8 PM...GENERATING
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 36 MPH AT LAS FLORES CANYON. WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SBA SOUTH COAST TONIGHT...AS SBA-SANTA MARIA PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TREND MORE OFFSHORE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PILE UP SOME MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SLOPES. OTHERWISE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MARINE INVERSION. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LA COUNTY COAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY
THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

TEMPS ON TUE WILL TURN WARMER ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT VLYS TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...WITH READINGS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO SWRN CA ON
TUE WILL BUILD FURTHER ACROSS SRN CA TUE NIGHT AND WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW...LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS
SHOULD ALSO AFFECT THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS AGAIN...BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE NAM WAS FORECASTING A LINGERING EDDY OVER THE
SRN CA BIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO
THE SRN L.A. COUNTY COAST. OVERALL... THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU.
IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...EXCEPT THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EDDY WITH LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS WARMING A LITTLE MORE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THRU
SAT WITH UPPER RIDGE LINGERING FRI THEN AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE E PAC ON SAT. THE GFS DOES BRING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL COAST ON SAT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
WHILE THE EC IS NOT AS FAST AND HOLDS OFF TIL LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING. BIGGER DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
GFS PASSES THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF QUICKLY E SUN WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN BY LATE SUN...WHILE EC SLOWS UPPER TROF DOWN AND
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY SUN WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVES THIS
SYSTEM AWAY SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MON.
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING FRONT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES SUN. SOME
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SAT THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2330Z.
THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2300Z IS 1600 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WOULD BE AT KLAX AND
KLGB LATER TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...20/800 PM...
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN EVENING
UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ZONES 673/676 FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/SIRARD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 210016
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF TODAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT
WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY REPORTED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. FURTHER NORTH...A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUM
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY LATE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL TO A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION. THIS TOO WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT PUSH INLAND AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEVELOP ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET DIFFER ON
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME
BETTER ALIGNED. STAY TUNED!

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT MONDAY...CONDIDTIONS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME TERMINALS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATE WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER KMRY. MODERATE
WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:35 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF POINT SUR. LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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