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000
FXUS66 KLOX 070359 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
800 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FIRE WX SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORIES IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WERE CANCELLED AT 2PM AS PLANNED.
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ENDED UP WORKING OUT OK...WITH
LEO CARRILLO AND CAMARILLO GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EARLIER.

MAIN HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ISSUED
FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALSO INCLUDES THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MANY AREAS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THAT ARE PRONE TO SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN
EVENT. LAX-DAG REACHED ABOUT -6 MB THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND -7
MB. WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT WEAKEN MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTEN TO ABOUT -9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING...HENCE THE WATCH.

THE NAM FORECASTS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN RATHER STRONG AT ABOUT -7.5 MB...SO
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE BUILDING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
PLACES TOP 90. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE RATHER
CHILLY...WHILE THE WINDIER AREAS STAY WARM AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA
ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT TROUGH STALL OUT OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
AS A RESULT...A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STILL NO RAIN IN
SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND
EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE
GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.

.FIRE...07/0300

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES OVER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. BESIDES THE WINDY CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAGGETT FORECASTED TO BE OVER
-9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SANTA
MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY BEGINNING 6 PM SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGH END WIND ADVISORIES
FOR THE OTHER COAST AND VALLEYS TO FOLLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS LOS ANGELES COASTAL AREAS WILL BE LIMITED TO BETWEEN THE
HOLLYWOOD HILLS AND MALIBU...AND FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH POOR RECOVERIES TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH OVER 60 MPH GUSTS FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS FROM
SIMI VALLEY TO NEWBURY PARK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY
FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM PST
MONDAY FOR ZONES 44-45-547. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
FIRE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 070251
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
751 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE LOW...SOME SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER WAY...NOTHING THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MID EVENING READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AS OF 0245Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON INCOMING
NBM AND LOCALLY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE DESERTS SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEADY WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESERT LOCALES SHOULD EASILY HIT THE LOW/MID 80S. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IN THE LEAST IF SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOOK A RUN AT 90 LATE IN THE WEEK. GEFS
MAINTAINS 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15-17C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A
BIT EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 850MB ON A DAILY
BASIS BUT SOME MODELS /99TH PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT /20-25KTS/ ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BUT WELL
SHORT OF LLWS THRESHOLDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 070251
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
751 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE LOW...SOME SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER WAY...NOTHING THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MID EVENING READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AS OF 0245Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON INCOMING
NBM AND LOCALLY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE DESERTS SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEADY WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESERT LOCALES SHOULD EASILY HIT THE LOW/MID 80S. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IN THE LEAST IF SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOOK A RUN AT 90 LATE IN THE WEEK. GEFS
MAINTAINS 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15-17C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A
BIT EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 850MB ON A DAILY
BASIS BUT SOME MODELS /99TH PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT /20-25KTS/ ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BUT WELL
SHORT OF LLWS THRESHOLDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 070251
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
751 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE LOW...SOME SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER WAY...NOTHING THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MID EVENING READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AS OF 0245Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON INCOMING
NBM AND LOCALLY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE DESERTS SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEADY WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESERT LOCALES SHOULD EASILY HIT THE LOW/MID 80S. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IN THE LEAST IF SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOOK A RUN AT 90 LATE IN THE WEEK. GEFS
MAINTAINS 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15-17C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A
BIT EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 850MB ON A DAILY
BASIS BUT SOME MODELS /99TH PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT /20-25KTS/ ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BUT WELL
SHORT OF LLWS THRESHOLDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



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000
FXUS66 KMTR 070059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO
TONIGHT AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AFFECTING NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY AT THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL
MSL...REACHING 20-30 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH
STABILITY AND WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS. THUS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT THE AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME TAF SITES SEEING 10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BTWN 12-16Z MONDAY AT THE EAST BAY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KOAK. LLWS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
MORNING AT KSFO KOAK KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CONTINUED THRU 06Z.
INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
AROUND 17Z SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY
MORNING IF STRONGER EASTERLIES SURFACE AT KSFO.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 070059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO
TONIGHT AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AFFECTING NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY AT THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL
MSL...REACHING 20-30 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH
STABILITY AND WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS. THUS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT THE AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME TAF SITES SEEING 10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BTWN 12-16Z MONDAY AT THE EAST BAY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KOAK. LLWS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
MORNING AT KSFO KOAK KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CONTINUED THRU 06Z.
INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
AROUND 17Z SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY
MORNING IF STRONGER EASTERLIES SURFACE AT KSFO.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 070059
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
459 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO
TONIGHT AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AFFECTING NORTH AND
EAST BAY TERMINALS FROM 10Z THROUGH 17Z SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP QUICKLY AT THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL
MSL...REACHING 20-30 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH
STABILITY AND WEAK SURFACE GRADIENTS. THUS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT THE AREA TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME TAF SITES SEEING 10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BTWN 12-16Z MONDAY AT THE EAST BAY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KOAK. LLWS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
MORNING AT KSFO KOAK KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CONTINUED THRU 06Z.
INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
AROUND 17Z SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY
MORNING IF STRONGER EASTERLIES SURFACE AT KSFO.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 070045 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA
ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 070045 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA
ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 070045 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR AREA
ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 062358 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORIES IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WERE CANCELLED AT 2PM AS PLANNED.
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ENDED UP WORKING OUT OK...WITH
LEO CARRILLO AND CAMARILLO GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EARLIER.

MAIN HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ISSUED
FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALSO INCLUDES THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MANY AREAS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THAT ARE PRONE TO SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN
EVENT. LAX-DAG REACHED ABOUT -6 MB THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND -7
MB. WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT WEAKEN MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTEN TO ABOUT -9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING...HENCE THE WATCH.

THE NAM FORECASTS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN RATHER STRONG AT ABOUT -7.5 MB...SO
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE BUILDING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
PLACES TOP 90. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE RATHER
CHILLY...WHILE THE WINDIER AREAS STAY WARM AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA
ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT TROUGH STALL OUT OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
AS A RESULT...A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STILL NO RAIN IN
SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND
EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE
GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY
      FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
      MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 44-45-547. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 062358 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORIES IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WERE CANCELLED AT 2PM AS PLANNED.
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ENDED UP WORKING OUT OK...WITH
LEO CARRILLO AND CAMARILLO GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EARLIER.

MAIN HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ISSUED
FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALSO INCLUDES THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MANY AREAS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THAT ARE PRONE TO SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN
EVENT. LAX-DAG REACHED ABOUT -6 MB THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND -7
MB. WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT WEAKEN MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTEN TO ABOUT -9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING...HENCE THE WATCH.

THE NAM FORECASTS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN RATHER STRONG AT ABOUT -7.5 MB...SO
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE BUILDING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
PLACES TOP 90. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE RATHER
CHILLY...WHILE THE WINDIER AREAS STAY WARM AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA
ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT TROUGH STALL OUT OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
AS A RESULT...A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STILL NO RAIN IN
SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND
EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE
GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY
      FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
      MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 44-45-547. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 062358 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
358 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORIES IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WERE CANCELLED AT 2PM AS PLANNED.
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ENDED UP WORKING OUT OK...WITH
LEO CARRILLO AND CAMARILLO GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EARLIER.

MAIN HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ISSUED
FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALSO INCLUDES THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MANY AREAS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THAT ARE PRONE TO SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN
EVENT. LAX-DAG REACHED ABOUT -6 MB THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND -7
MB. WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT WEAKEN MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTEN TO ABOUT -9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING...HENCE THE WATCH.

THE NAM FORECASTS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN RATHER STRONG AT ABOUT -7.5 MB...SO
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE BUILDING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
PLACES TOP 90. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS...WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE RATHER
CHILLY...WHILE THE WINDIER AREAS STAY WARM AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA
ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT TROUGH STALL OUT OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
AS A RESULT...A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STILL NO RAIN IN
SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND
EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE
GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY
      FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
      MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 44-45-547. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 062303
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
303 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS TO
THE AREA AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD AND FOG TO FORM IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXTENT
AND COVERAGE. IT RANGES FROM VERY LIKELY IN THE WEAVERVILLE AREA
TO POSSIBLE IN THE UKIAH. IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THE FOG WILL PERSIST EACH...ESPECIALLY IN WEAVERVILLE. THIS
MAY HELP KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER. THE CLOUDS CLEARED
QUICKLY IN WEAVERVILLE TODAY...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT AND THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENING IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN THE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS STARTING SHOWING THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
RAIN. THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND
KEEPS THE RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF CA. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING BETTER WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS IN
THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO HAVE SOME POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE DUE TO HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
WATERS SUBSIDES. HOWEVER A WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL INCREASE THE
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 062303
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
303 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS TO
THE AREA AND A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD AND FOG TO FORM IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXTENT
AND COVERAGE. IT RANGES FROM VERY LIKELY IN THE WEAVERVILLE AREA
TO POSSIBLE IN THE UKIAH. IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THE FOG WILL PERSIST EACH...ESPECIALLY IN WEAVERVILLE. THIS
MAY HELP KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER. THE CLOUDS CLEARED
QUICKLY IN WEAVERVILLE TODAY...BUT WITH THE WARMING ALOFT AND THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENING IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN THE RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS STARTING SHOWING THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
RAIN. THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND
KEEPS THE RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF CA. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A RETURN TO A WETTER
PATTERN...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING BETTER WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS IN
THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO HAVE SOME POPS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE DUE TO HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
WATERS SUBSIDES. HOWEVER A WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL INCREASE THE
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 062300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds through the Central
Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are running about 5 degrees
warmer compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 40s
and 50s in the mountains to the 60s in the Central Valley.

Warm and dry pattern continues for interior NorCal into next week
as a strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Some patchy late
night and morning valley fog will be possible.

Warming forecast to increase Sunday and early next week with
strong subsidence and strengthening offshore flow (winds will be
breezy at times in the Sierra and portions of the Sacramento
Valley). Some daily record highs may be in jeopardy Monday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
High pressure will begin to shift eastward into the Great Basin
on Wednesday. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all show a weak trough
approaching the coast, but both the ECMWF and GEM weaken this
system before much if any precipitation spreads inland.

Another, slightly stronger trough moves toward NorCal late next
week. While some differences still exist, models are in better
agreement than prior runs, keeping the best chances of precip
mainly along the northern half of our forecast area. Dang

&&

.Aviation...
Upr rdg ovr Intr NorCal with VFR conds nxt 24 hrs exc in Cntrl
Vly S of KOVE and in mtn vlys...lcl MVFR vsby poss in BR btwn 09z-
19z Sun with isold LIFR in FG poss btwn 11-18z Sun. SFC wnds genly
lgt tngt and Sun.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 062300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds through the Central
Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are running about 5 degrees
warmer compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 40s
and 50s in the mountains to the 60s in the Central Valley.

Warm and dry pattern continues for interior NorCal into next week
as a strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Some patchy late
night and morning valley fog will be possible.

Warming forecast to increase Sunday and early next week with
strong subsidence and strengthening offshore flow (winds will be
breezy at times in the Sierra and portions of the Sacramento
Valley). Some daily record highs may be in jeopardy Monday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
High pressure will begin to shift eastward into the Great Basin
on Wednesday. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all show a weak trough
approaching the coast, but both the ECMWF and GEM weaken this
system before much if any precipitation spreads inland.

Another, slightly stronger trough moves toward NorCal late next
week. While some differences still exist, models are in better
agreement than prior runs, keeping the best chances of precip
mainly along the northern half of our forecast area. Dang

&&

.Aviation...
Upr rdg ovr Intr NorCal with VFR conds nxt 24 hrs exc in Cntrl
Vly S of KOVE and in mtn vlys...lcl MVFR vsby poss in BR btwn 09z-
19z Sun with isold LIFR in FG poss btwn 11-18z Sun. SFC wnds genly
lgt tngt and Sun.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 062252
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM, GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO STRONG COOLING AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT MIXING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH RESULTING IN POOR AIR QUALITY IN GENERAL AND POOR VENTILATION
PRESCRIBED BURNING OPERATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, RUNOFF WILL INCREASE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
BE TOO STRONG IN THE VALLEYS. SOME RIDGE TOP GUSTS COULD APPROACH
40 MPH ESPECIALLY IN MONO COUNTY AND COULD IMPACT RECREATIONAL
OUTDOOR AND BACK COUNTRY ACTIVITIES. HOON


LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN OVER TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWER
60S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS LIGHT EXCEPT
FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAKER SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY`S SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
BUT AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE DEFLECTS
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
COOL DOWN OF ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH MID 50S POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SIERRA BY NEXT SATURDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
DO INCREASE IN MONO COUNTY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35/40 KTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING FOG FORMATION AROUND KTRK
AND THROUGH THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FUENTES/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KMTR 062238
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY
FOG HAS TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW
POINT. FURTHERMORE...NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
CALM WINDS IN WHAT WILL STILL BE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS...LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES MAINLY MVFR 3 TO 6 STATUTE
MILES VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES FROM AROUND 10Z THRU 17Z
SUNDAY. BUT...LIFR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR SANTA ROSA/KSTS.
POSBL HZ CONDS THRU SUNDAY MORNING MAY INTRODUCE SLANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FOR
COASTAL TAF SITES.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNANT AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU 01Z. THEN LIGHT SEA BREEZE 01Z THRU 06Z. INTERMITTENT
VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 17Z
SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 062238
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY
FOG HAS TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW
POINT. FURTHERMORE...NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
CALM WINDS IN WHAT WILL STILL BE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS...LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES MAINLY MVFR 3 TO 6 STATUTE
MILES VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES FROM AROUND 10Z THRU 17Z
SUNDAY. BUT...LIFR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR SANTA ROSA/KSTS.
POSBL HZ CONDS THRU SUNDAY MORNING MAY INTRODUCE SLANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FOR
COASTAL TAF SITES.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNANT AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU 01Z. THEN LIGHT SEA BREEZE 01Z THRU 06Z. INTERMITTENT
VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 17Z
SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 062238
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
238 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:38 AM PST SATURDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE TRENDING WARMER 1 TO 8 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH
4.7 MB BETWEEN WMC AND SFO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY
COUNTIES. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE DISTRICT DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE TAIL
END OF A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BAY LATE IN THE
PERIOD (NEXT WEEKEND.)

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY
FOG HAS TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW
POINT. FURTHERMORE...NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
CALM WINDS IN WHAT WILL STILL BE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS...LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES MAINLY MVFR 3 TO 6 STATUTE
MILES VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES FROM AROUND 10Z THRU 17Z
SUNDAY. BUT...LIFR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR SANTA ROSA/KSTS.
POSBL HZ CONDS THRU SUNDAY MORNING MAY INTRODUCE SLANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FOR
COASTAL TAF SITES.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNANT AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU 01Z. THEN LIGHT SEA BREEZE 01Z THRU 06Z. INTERMITTENT
VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 17Z
SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:42 PM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 062226
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
226 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORIES IN LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT WERE CANCELLED AT 2PM AS PLANNED.
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ENDED UP WORKING OUT OK...WITH
LEO CARRILLO AND CAMARILLO GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EARLIER.

MAIN HEADLINES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE ISSUED
FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALSO INCLUDES THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MANY AREAS IN
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THAT ARE PRONE TO SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BE UNDER WIND ADVISORIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN
EVENT. LAX-DAG REACHED ABOUT -6 MB THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND -7
MB. WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY NOT WEAKEN MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT -9 MB BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THAT THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING...HENCE THE WATCH.

THE NAM FORECASTS THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAIN RATHER STRONG AT ABOUT -7.5 MB...SO
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AT SOME POINT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE BUILDING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
PLACES TOP 90. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY...WHILE THE
WINDIER AREAS STAY WARM AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE GRADIENTS SHOULD TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE BAY AREA
ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT TROUGH STALL OUT OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
AS A RESULT...A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG
RANGE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STILL NO RAIN IN
SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK NORTH AFTER
07/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE
NORTHEAST AFTER 07/16Z. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 07/04Z AND AFTER 07/21Z
OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND
EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE
GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY
      FOR ZONES 40-41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
      MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM PST
      MONDAY FOR ZONES 44-45-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
      AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 46-53-54. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONE 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KPSR 062213
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL NORTH WINDS IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE TROPOPSHERE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT NIGHT AND THE MORNING
HOURS WHEN THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE...THERE MAY BE RELATIVELY
STRONG WINDS AT TIMES...20-30 KTS...AT 2-3KFT MSL WHICH WOULD BE
FLIRTING WITH LLWS CRITERIA. AT THE SAME TIME IN THE PHOENIX AREA
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED WEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...STARTING BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KHNX 062204
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER
FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR
AREA ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
RIDGE THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 062204
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER
FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR
AREA ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
RIDGE THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 062204
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
204 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FLATTENED
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHED INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...THE SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
OFF THE CA COAST TONIGHT AND BUILD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURE NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LONGWAVE PROGS ARE INDICATING A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT. SOME FOG
FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG OBSERVED NEAR MERCED AND HANFORD THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AGAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.

MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE P-GRADS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS AND BELOW THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
DIURNAL THICKNESSES AND AS A RESULT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD EACH DAY AND BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
MONDAY. IF ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE GETS INTO THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY DAYTIME TEMEPRATURES COULD BE WELL ABOVE
FORECASTED NUMBERS AND APPROACH RECORD MAXIMUM HIGHS.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER
FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO OUR
AREA ALTHOUGH TEMEPRATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
RIDGE THEN RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG FROM 08Z TO 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 7 2016... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 062143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL NORTH WINDS IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 062143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL NORTH WINDS IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 062131
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN NEAR 12 MBS OFFSHORE
FROM TONOPAH NV AT MIDDAY...BUT WERE ONLY AROUND 2 MBS FROM THE LOWER
DESERTS TO THE COAST. SKIES WERE CLEAR AT 1 PM PST WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS ALONG THE
COASTAL SLOPES AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS. UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORTS MARGINAL...BUT THE SFC GRADIENT WILL BE VERY STRONG
AND CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCAL GUSTS TO 65 MPH OR MORE IN THESE WIND-
PRONE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GUSTY OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE MTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT...
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN SPOTS AND CAPABLE OF CREATING
A HAZARD TO TRAVELERS.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH TUE.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN
RESPONSE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOCAL AND BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BELOW FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTY MUCH OF THE DAY IN THESE AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL...
WITH A FEW RECORDS LIKELY TO FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUALLY COOLER
AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT CONTINUED VERY DRY
AND MILD.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH WILL TAKE A RUN AT THE RIDGE NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WHILE IT MAY BUMP UP HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND...NO PRECIP IS LIKELY. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO
LAST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON
BOARD FOR MORE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE 20TH OF THE MONTH BASED ON THE EXTENDED
GFS RUN.


.AVIATION...

062100...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/
CANYONS...AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PRODUCING AREAS OF MOD-STG UDDFS/
LLWS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SOME GUSTY NE WINDS COULD SURFACE AT
KSNA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR SUNDAY...LOOKING LIKE
KONT AND KSNA WILL SEE STRONG SURFACE NE WINDS BY ABOUT 07/1800-2000
UTC...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
     BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS65 KREV 061820 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE THESE STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIMITED
MIXING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY, AND
TO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY FOR SOME WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAY STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO/TAHOE AREA BY
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MELTING OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF INCREASING INTO SOME
OF THE AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. MIXING WILL ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY BUT NOT PUSHING
RECORDS, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING ENERGY INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LARGE, DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING
THESE INITIAL WAVES ARE ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE, DOUBT THEY
WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER IS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK AND THROUGH THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. BETTER FZFG CHANCES EXIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE SAME AREAS - AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 061820 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE THESE STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIMITED
MIXING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY, AND
TO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY FOR SOME WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAY STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO/TAHOE AREA BY
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MELTING OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF INCREASING INTO SOME
OF THE AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. MIXING WILL ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY BUT NOT PUSHING
RECORDS, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING ENERGY INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LARGE, DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING
THESE INITIAL WAVES ARE ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE, DOUBT THEY
WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER IS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK AND THROUGH THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. BETTER FZFG CHANCES EXIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE SAME AREAS - AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 061820 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE THESE STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIMITED
MIXING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY, AND
TO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY FOR SOME WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAY STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO/TAHOE AREA BY
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MELTING OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF INCREASING INTO SOME
OF THE AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. MIXING WILL ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY BUT NOT PUSHING
RECORDS, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING ENERGY INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LARGE, DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING
THESE INITIAL WAVES ARE ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE, DOUBT THEY
WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER IS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK AND THROUGH THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. BETTER FZFG CHANCES EXIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE SAME AREAS - AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KLOX 061807
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1006 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

LIKELY NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT A COUPLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS LEO CARRILLO
BEACH HAVE GUSTED TO 35 MPH. A FEW PLACES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS RIDGETOPS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THIS
MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LET THE LOW END WIND ADVISORIES GO
THROUGH 2PM AS PLANNED...BUT MAY END THE COASTAL AREAS A LITTLE
EARLY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS. THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT STRENGTHENED TO AROUND
-6MB THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE
GRADIENTS AND SHOWS A MB OR TWO STRONGER FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...SO WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A VERY STRONG LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF ABOUT
-9MB FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BUT
STILL...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA ANA PRONE RIDGETOPS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK NORTH AFTER
07/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE
NORTHEAST AFTER 07/16Z. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 07/04Z AND AFTER 07/21Z
OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...06/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM POINT MUGU
TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTENDING OUT 8 NM WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL
INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO
MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/ASR
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 061807
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1006 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

LIKELY NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT A COUPLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS LEO CARRILLO
BEACH HAVE GUSTED TO 35 MPH. A FEW PLACES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS RIDGETOPS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THIS
MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LET THE LOW END WIND ADVISORIES GO
THROUGH 2PM AS PLANNED...BUT MAY END THE COASTAL AREAS A LITTLE
EARLY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS. THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT STRENGTHENED TO AROUND
-6MB THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE
GRADIENTS AND SHOWS A MB OR TWO STRONGER FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...SO WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A VERY STRONG LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF ABOUT
-9MB FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BUT
STILL...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA ANA PRONE RIDGETOPS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK NORTH AFTER
07/11Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE
NORTHEAST AFTER 07/16Z. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 07/04Z AND AFTER 07/21Z
OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...06/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM POINT MUGU
TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTENDING OUT 8 NM WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL
INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO
MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/ASR
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...THORNTON

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 061804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1004 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 AM PST SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. SOME VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS LEFT OVER IN THE SANTA CLARA AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
A FEW VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT OVERALL 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
NUMBERS ARE RUNNING WARMER. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM IS MONITORING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CONCERNING
AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY
FOG HAS TRANSITIONED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BUT EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW
POINT. FURTHERMORE...NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
CALM WINDS IN WHAT WILL STILL BE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS...LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES MAINLY MVFR 3 TO 6 STATUTE
MILES VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES FROM AROUND 10Z THRU 17Z
SUNDAY. BUT...LIFR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR SANTA ROSA/KSTS.
POSBL HZ CONDS THRU SUNDAY MORNING MAY INTRODUCE SLANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FOR
COASTAL TAF SITES.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNANT AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EAST-NORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THRU 01Z. THEN LIGHT SEA BREEZE 01Z THRU 06Z. INTERMITTENT
VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 17Z
SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:34 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 061738
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
938 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)

LIKELY NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA AND LA COUNTY HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT A COUPLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS LEO CARRILLO
BEACH HAVE GUSTED TO 35 MPH. A FEW PLACES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS RIDGETOPS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THIS
MORNING...SO WILL LIKELY LET THE LOW END WIND ADVISORIES GO
THROUGH 2PM AS PLANNED...BUT MAY END THE COASTAL AREAS A LITTLE
EARLY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
SANTA ANA CONDITIONS. THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT STRENGTHENED TO AROUND
-6MB THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE
GRADIENTS AND SHOWS A MB OR TWO STRONGER FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...SO WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A VERY STRONG LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF ABOUT
-9MB FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BUT
STILL...COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SANTA ANA PRONE RIDGETOPS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1030Z...

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE 13Z-17Z. AS FOR
WINDS...WILL EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE 12Z-22Z.
&&

.MARINE...06/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM POINT MUGU
TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTENDING OUT 8 NM WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE AREA WILL
INCLUDE VENTURA HARBOR AND EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GALE GUSTS WILL EXIST FROM SUNRISE TO
MIDDAY MONDAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/ASR
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 AM PST SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. SOME VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS LEFT OVER IN THE SANTA CLARA AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
A FEW VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT OVERALL 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
NUMBERS ARE RUNNING WARMER. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM IS MONITORING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CONCERNING
AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:14 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 AM PST SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. SOME VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS LEFT OVER IN THE SANTA CLARA AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
A FEW VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT OVERALL 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
NUMBERS ARE RUNNING WARMER. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM IS MONITORING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CONCERNING
AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:14 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 061657
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 AM PST SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. SOME VERY SHALLOW AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS LEFT OVER IN THE SANTA CLARA AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
A FEW VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY BUT OVERALL 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
NUMBERS ARE RUNNING WARMER. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING ON MONDAY.

BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL SLIGHTLY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM IS MONITORING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CONCERNING
AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:14 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: BINGAMAN
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 061643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
843 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH 8 AM PST THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MTS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS ARE
REPORTING WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45-55 MPH. A PEAK GUST OF
58MPH OCCURRED IN THE SANTA ANA MTS THIS MORNING AT 7 AM PST. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS HOLDING STEADY...STRONG OFFSHORE FROM
SW NV-SAN DIEGO AT 14 MBS...AND WEAK OFFSHORE 2-3 MBS FROM THE LOWER
DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD WEAK WINDS BELOW 10K FT AND A
SFC-BASED INVERSION.

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW CANYONS THROUGH 1 PM PST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AFTER WHICH TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VARY DIURNALLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE MI TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS
DECREASE AS THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DECREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...

061611Z...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/
CANYONS...AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PRODUCING AREAS OF MOD-STG UDDFS/
LLWS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SOME GUSTY NE WINDS COULD SURFACE AT
KSNA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT KONT LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
811 AM...FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS OF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST... MAINLY NORTH OF LA JOLLA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON




000
FXUS66 KSTO 061607
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
807 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm and dry pattern for interior NorCal into next week as a
strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Morning soundings
indicate some warming across the region today, then warming
increases Sunday and early next week with strong subsidence and
strengthening offshore flow. No updates.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to develop
in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not expected
to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by late
morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime highs
Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At this
time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper ridge
deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models diverge a
bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal system. Only
the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the forecast area
while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it moves inland.
The GEM lifts the system to the north. For now...have put in
slight precip chances across the northern and west side mountains.
No matter what the outcome...should at least see cooler daytime
temperatures although highs Friday should still come in at least a
few degrees above normal. Models indicating that the upper trough
axis will have shifted into the Great Basin by Saturday so a few
Sierra showers not out of the question but again model
inconsistencies make for low confidence.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 061607
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
807 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm and dry pattern for interior NorCal into next week as a
strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Morning soundings
indicate some warming across the region today, then warming
increases Sunday and early next week with strong subsidence and
strengthening offshore flow. No updates.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to develop
in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not expected
to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by late
morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime highs
Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At this
time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper ridge
deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models diverge a
bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal system. Only
the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the forecast area
while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it moves inland.
The GEM lifts the system to the north. For now...have put in
slight precip chances across the northern and west side mountains.
No matter what the outcome...should at least see cooler daytime
temperatures although highs Friday should still come in at least a
few degrees above normal. Models indicating that the upper trough
axis will have shifted into the Great Basin by Saturday so a few
Sierra showers not out of the question but again model
inconsistencies make for low confidence.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 061607
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
807 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm and dry pattern for interior NorCal into next week as a
strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Morning soundings
indicate some warming across the region today, then warming
increases Sunday and early next week with strong subsidence and
strengthening offshore flow. No updates.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to develop
in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not expected
to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by late
morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime highs
Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At this
time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper ridge
deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models diverge a
bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal system. Only
the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the forecast area
while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it moves inland.
The GEM lifts the system to the north. For now...have put in
slight precip chances across the northern and west side mountains.
No matter what the outcome...should at least see cooler daytime
temperatures although highs Friday should still come in at least a
few degrees above normal. Models indicating that the upper trough
axis will have shifted into the Great Basin by Saturday so a few
Sierra showers not out of the question but again model
inconsistencies make for low confidence.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPSR 061427
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REPLETE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING NORTH SOUTH LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 8 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 AM MST...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 061427
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REPLETE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING NORTH SOUTH LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 8 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 AM MST...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 061427
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REPLETE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING NORTH SOUTH LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 8 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 AM MST...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KHNX 061228
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
418 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME FINE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND POSSIBLY LONGER
THANKS TO A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND ACT AS A BARRICADE TO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS THAT
TRY TO REACH THE WEST COAST. THERE CURRENTLY IS A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL THWART ITS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1040 MB)
WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST TO 55 MPH IN THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND
AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH WEAKENS OVER IDAHO BUT NONETHELESS EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH WILL EASILY CHALLENGE RECORDS IN THE SJ VLY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR EACH OF THESE DAYS
FOR FAT AND BFL HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BELOW THIS DISCUSSION. KEEP IN
MIND THAT IF DOWNSLOPE WINDS SURVIVE THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTH END
OF THE SJ VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAX TEMPS COULD TOP 80 DEGREES
AND HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRANSITION TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS BY FRIDAY. TRADITIONALLY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE GFS...ARE OFTEN TOO FAST BUSTING DOWN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES.
HISTORICALLY IT TAKES A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO KICK A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA
NEXT SATURDAY WITH SOME PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER TO ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES WHICH FORECAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER CA NEXT WEEKEND. CONSENSUS WAS TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP DAY 7 DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
UNTIL THEN...CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS ARE IN FOR A WEEK LONG SPELL OF
SPRING FEVER.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

               FEB 8TH    FEB 9TH   FEB 10TH   FEB 11TH

FRESNO         74/1987    71/2012    75/1961    73/1925
BAKERSFIELD    77/1917    77/2012    79/1961    81/1925

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 6 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND KINGS
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 061218
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
418 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME FINE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND POSSIBLY LONGER
THANKS TO A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND ACT AS A BARRICADE TO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS THAT
TRY TO REACH THE WEST COAST. THERE CURRENTLY IS A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL THWART ITS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1040 MB)
WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST TO 55 MPH IN THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND
AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH WEAKENS OVER IDAHO BUT NONETHELESS EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH WILL EASILY CHALLENGE RECORDS IN THE SJ VLY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR EACH OF THESE DAYS
FOR FAT AND BFL HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BELOW THIS DISCUSSION. KEEP IN
MIND THAT IF DOWNSLOPE WINDS SURVIVE THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTH END
OF THE SJ VLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAX TEMPS COULD TOP 80 DEGREES
AND HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRANSITION TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS BY FRIDAY. TRADITIONALLY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE GFS...ARE OFTEN TOO FAST BUSTING DOWN HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES.
HISTORICALLY IT TAKES A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO KICK A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA
NEXT SATURDAY WITH SOME PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER TO ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES WHICH FORECAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER CA NEXT WEEKEND. CONSENSUS WAS TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP DAY 7 DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
UNTIL THEN...CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS ARE IN FOR A WEEK LONG SPELL OF
SPRING FEVER.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

               FEB 8TH    FEB 9TH   FEB 10TH   FEB 11TH

FRESNO         74/1987    71/2012    75/1961    73/1925
BAKERSFIELD    77/1917    77/2012    79/1961    81/1925

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 6 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND KINGS
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989
KFAT 02-08       74:1987     41:1989     53:1993     28:1891

KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
KBFL 02-08       77:1917     46:1939     53:1963     23:1929
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW AREAS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAKING FOR A MOSTLY VFR
DAY. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP COASTAL AIRFIELDS VFR TONIGHT. INTERIOR VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE GOOD TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM THIS MORNING AS THE DIMINISHING WESTERLY SWELL ALLOWS THE SEA
STATE TO FALL BELOW 10 FT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A
NEW WESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
THE SEA STATE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG



000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW AREAS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAKING FOR A MOSTLY VFR
DAY. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP COASTAL AIRFIELDS VFR TONIGHT. INTERIOR VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE GOOD TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM THIS MORNING AS THE DIMINISHING WESTERLY SWELL ALLOWS THE SEA
STATE TO FALL BELOW 10 FT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A
NEW WESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
THE SEA STATE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FEW AREAS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST AND ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAKING FOR A MOSTLY VFR
DAY. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP COASTAL AIRFIELDS VFR TONIGHT. INTERIOR VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, SHOULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE GOOD TO EXPIRE AT 9
AM THIS MORNING AS THE DIMINISHING WESTERLY SWELL ALLOWS THE SEA
STATE TO FALL BELOW 10 FT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RELATIVELY LOW SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A
NEW WESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
THE SEA STATE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG



000
FXUS66 KEKA 061215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK FRONT LIMPED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SPITS AND DRIBBLES ALONG THE COAST. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
ORICK. CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN OVER THAT AREA TODAY
AND EVEN A LITTLE COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD MAINLY
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH SOME SUN MIXED IN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR
DISSIPATE. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM ON SUNDAY INLAND
AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S. INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE
WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY AT 62. THE RIDGE IS
QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT THIS ALSO MAKES IT
HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING
THEME IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL
PATTERN SHIFT FROM AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...THE NORTHERLY
POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH
PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. /BRC


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:29 AM PST SATURDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM
IS MONITORING A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CONCERNING AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW
CIGS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:51 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 061205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:29 AM PST SATURDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM
IS MONITORING A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CONCERNING AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW
CIGS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY... MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING
IS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEW POINT.
FURTHERMORE... NO TURBULENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE AS CALM WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THE OVERALL WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
THUS... LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDING 4 TO 6 STATUE MILES OR MVFR
VISIBILITY AT MOST TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING... IE AT LEAST THRU
16Z SAT. POSBL HZ CONDS THRU THE MORN MAY INTRODUCE SLANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES... BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR THAT TOMORROW
MORNING INSTEAD AS AIR MASS STAGNATES. LIGHT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND CALM WINDS... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED FG AS WELL AS HZ AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR PEAK AVIATION MONDAY MORNING... STAGNATE AIR MASS CONTINUES
BUT STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME TAF SITES SEEING
10-15KT EASTNORTHEAST BTWN 12-16Z MON ALTERING RUNWAY CONFIGS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLWS IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING AT KSFO KOAK
KLVK KCCR KHWD. BE PREPARED FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC ON MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH PROB30 VISIBILITIES
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE... IE 4-5SM WITH BR THRU 16Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT SOUTH THRU 17Z. THEN UP TO 6KT EAST THRU 23Z. THEN
LIGHT SEA BREEZE AFTER 23Z. INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR DUE TO HZ/BR FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POSBL RUNWAY CONFIGURATION IMPACTS
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:51 AM PST SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 061200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 061200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 061200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA.
LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS SRN AZ
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ. PWAT VALUES WERE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW
20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY
REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69 DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE WILL SEE THE WARM AIR
ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT MORE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHIFTS FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...WITH
LIGHT W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. NORTHERLY ORIENTED
WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-12KTS WILL PERSIST FOR KBLH...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KSTO 061135
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to
develop in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not
expected to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by
late morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime
highs Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At
this time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper
ridge deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models
diverge a bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal
system. Only the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the
forecast area while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it
moves inland. The GEM lifts the system to the north. For
now...have put in slight precip chances across the northern and
west side mountains. No matter what the outcome...should at least
see cooler daytime temperatures although highs Friday should still
come in at least a few degrees above normal. Models indicating
that the upper trough axis will have shifted into the Great Basin
by Saturday so a few Sierra showers not out of the question but
again model inconsistencies make for low confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 061135
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to
develop in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not
expected to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by
late morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime
highs Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At
this time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper
ridge deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models
diverge a bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal
system. Only the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the
forecast area while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it
moves inland. The GEM lifts the system to the north. For
now...have put in slight precip chances across the northern and
west side mountains. No matter what the outcome...should at least
see cooler daytime temperatures although highs Friday should still
come in at least a few degrees above normal. Models indicating
that the upper trough axis will have shifted into the Great Basin
by Saturday so a few Sierra showers not out of the question but
again model inconsistencies make for low confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 061135
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to
develop in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not
expected to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by
late morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime
highs Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At
this time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper
ridge deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models
diverge a bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal
system. Only the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the
forecast area while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it
moves inland. The GEM lifts the system to the north. For
now...have put in slight precip chances across the northern and
west side mountains. No matter what the outcome...should at least
see cooler daytime temperatures although highs Friday should still
come in at least a few degrees above normal. Models indicating
that the upper trough axis will have shifted into the Great Basin
by Saturday so a few Sierra showers not out of the question but
again model inconsistencies make for low confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:29 AM PST SATURDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM
IS MONITORING A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CONCERNING AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW
CIGS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:21 AM PST SATURDAY...A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER UTAH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS
SOUTH OF POINT REYES. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP/KENNEDY
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 061130
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
330 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:29 AM PST SATURDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM ITEM
IS MONITORING A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE REPORTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
CONCERNING AIRPORTS. HALF MOON BAY AND NOVATO REPORTED SOME LOW
CIGS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE SINCE CLEARED WHILE LIVERMORE AND CONCORD
CONTINUE TO REPORT REDUCED VSBYS AROUND 4SM IN HAZE/MIST. KSFO
JUST REPORTED 6 SM. MEANWHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO CRESCENT
CITY OVERNIGHT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH. END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER LINES UP FOR SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY APPROACH BUT NOT PASS RECORDS FOR THE DATE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECTING 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY AS OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS THE WARMEST
READINGS TO THE COAST.

RIDGE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. ALL DATA SUGGESTS MONDAY AS THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN
THE TABLE BELOW WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TIED OR
SURPASSED.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS BACK
TO ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:21 AM PST SATURDAY...A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER UTAH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS
SOUTH OF POINT REYES. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP/KENNEDY
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 061117
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
317 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN
FREE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE BIG TOPICS (RATHER OUT OF PLACE IN FEBRUARY WITH A STRONG EL
NINO IN PLACE) FOR THE FORECAST IS THE WINDS AND THE TEMPS.

NAM IS (AS IT ALMOST DOES) IS OVER ESTIMATING THE KDAG GRADIENT
BY ABOUT 2 MB. STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IT LOOKS AS IF
YESTERDAYS...TODAYS AND SUNDAYS MORNING`S GRADIENTS WILL BE
SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE NORTH PUSH ON SUNDAY) MONDAY IS THE
DAY ALL EYES ARE ON AS THE GRADS INCREASE BY 3 MB. ONSHORE TRENDS
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH PUSHES A LITTLE
MORE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER SUPPORT TODAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IT WAS YDY BUT IT WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS AN
APPRECIABLE BUMP UP IN UPPER SUPPORT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE
UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

TODAYS LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD ESP ACROSS THE WINDIEST
RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROWS WINDS WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH
TO BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG ADVISORY OR EVEN LOW END
WARNING WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER THAN NORMAL ONSET OF WINDS WILL BE
GENERATEDBY THE BURST OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

ALL OF THIS WIND STUFF SAID...ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP IT IN THE BACKS
OF ONES HEAD THAT THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERPLAY WIND EVENTS.
BUT GFS AND EC ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS EVENT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO
FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING.

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...

06/1030Z

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE 13Z-17Z. AS FOR
WINDS...WILL EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE 12Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

06/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TODAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND SANTA MONICA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 061117
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
317 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN
FREE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE BIG TOPICS (RATHER OUT OF PLACE IN FEBRUARY WITH A STRONG EL
NINO IN PLACE) FOR THE FORECAST IS THE WINDS AND THE TEMPS.

NAM IS (AS IT ALMOST DOES) IS OVER ESTIMATING THE KDAG GRADIENT
BY ABOUT 2 MB. STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IT LOOKS AS IF
YESTERDAYS...TODAYS AND SUNDAYS MORNING`S GRADIENTS WILL BE
SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE NORTH PUSH ON SUNDAY) MONDAY IS THE
DAY ALL EYES ARE ON AS THE GRADS INCREASE BY 3 MB. ONSHORE TRENDS
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH PUSHES A LITTLE
MORE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER SUPPORT TODAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IT WAS YDY BUT IT WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS AN
APPRECIABLE BUMP UP IN UPPER SUPPORT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE
UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

TODAYS LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD ESP ACROSS THE WINDIEST
RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROWS WINDS WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH
TO BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG ADVISORY OR EVEN LOW END
WARNING WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER THAN NORMAL ONSET OF WINDS WILL BE
GENERATEDBY THE BURST OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

ALL OF THIS WIND STUFF SAID...ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP IT IN THE BACKS
OF ONES HEAD THAT THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERPLAY WIND EVENTS.
BUT GFS AND EC ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS EVENT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO
FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING.

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...

06/1030Z

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE 13Z-17Z. AS FOR
WINDS...WILL EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE 12Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

06/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TODAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND SANTA MONICA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 061117
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
317 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN
FREE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE BIG TOPICS (RATHER OUT OF PLACE IN FEBRUARY WITH A STRONG EL
NINO IN PLACE) FOR THE FORECAST IS THE WINDS AND THE TEMPS.

NAM IS (AS IT ALMOST DOES) IS OVER ESTIMATING THE KDAG GRADIENT
BY ABOUT 2 MB. STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS IT LOOKS AS IF
YESTERDAYS...TODAYS AND SUNDAYS MORNING`S GRADIENTS WILL BE
SIMILAR (PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE NORTH PUSH ON SUNDAY) MONDAY IS THE
DAY ALL EYES ARE ON AS THE GRADS INCREASE BY 3 MB. ONSHORE TRENDS
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH PUSHES A LITTLE
MORE TO THE EAST. THE UPPER SUPPORT TODAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN IT WAS YDY BUT IT WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS AN
APPRECIABLE BUMP UP IN UPPER SUPPORT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE
UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

TODAYS LOW END ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD ESP ACROSS THE WINDIEST
RIDGETOPS. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROWS WINDS WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH
TO BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG ADVISORY OR EVEN LOW END
WARNING WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EARLIER THAN NORMAL ONSET OF WINDS WILL BE
GENERATEDBY THE BURST OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

ALL OF THIS WIND STUFF SAID...ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP IT IN THE BACKS
OF ONES HEAD THAT THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERPLAY WIND EVENTS.
BUT GFS AND EC ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS EVENT IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO
FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING.

ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS TODAY BUT MANY MORE SUN-TUE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY EACH DAY SUN-TUE. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS
AND VLYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP SUN. BUT THEN
THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE INTERIOR WILL REALLY SLOW
THE WARMING TREND. THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MIN TEMPS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BLOWING AND WHERE THEY ARE CALM. LOWERED MIN TEMPS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT EVEN WITH THAT THERE IS A CHC THAT THEY
WILL COME IN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN FCST.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WED AND THU. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE MORNING BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY THE WINDS WILL NOT EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
BUT THE INTERIOR WILL WARM AS THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL END.

PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FINALLY NUDGED
TO THE EAST BY A TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO
NEUTRAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SORT OF TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A NON ZERO CHC OF RAIN (MAINLY THE MTNS) BUT STILL TOO SLIM A
CHC TO INCLUDE THE R WORD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING.


&&

.AVIATION...

06/1030Z

AT 1000Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE KPRB WHERE MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE 13Z-17Z. AS FOR
WINDS...WILL EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS (KOXR...KVNY...KPMD...KWJF). THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 22Z ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRFIELD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
LLWS/TURBULENCE 12Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

06/200 AM

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. ON MONDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PZZ676. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TODAY FROM VENTURA HARBOR
SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
BETWEEN VENTURA HARBOR AND SANTA MONICA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS
      MORNING FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 061100
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND DRY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WITH AREAS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF -12.5 MB SAN-TPH AND -3.1 MB
SAN-TRM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AFTER WHICH TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VARY DIURNALLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE MI TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS
DECREASE AS THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DECREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
061030Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
MAINLY NORTH OF LA JOLLA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...17




000
FXUS66 KSGX 061100
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND DRY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WITH AREAS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF -12.5 MB SAN-TPH AND -3.1 MB
SAN-TRM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AFTER WHICH TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VARY DIURNALLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE MI TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS
DECREASE AS THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DECREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
061030Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
MAINLY NORTH OF LA JOLLA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...17



000
FXUS66 KSGX 061100
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND DRY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
DECREASE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WITH AREAS OF GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF -12.5 MB SAN-TPH AND -3.1 MB
SAN-TRM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AFTER WHICH TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VARY DIURNALLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE MI TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS
DECREASE AS THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DECREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
061030Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...
MAINLY NORTH OF LA JOLLA.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...17




000
FXUS65 KREV 061043
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE THESE STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIMITED
MIXING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY, AND
TO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY FOR SOME WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAY STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO/TAHOE AREA BY
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MELTING OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF INCREASING INTO SOME
OF THE AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. MIXING WILL ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY BUT NOT PUSHING
RECORDS, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING ENERGY INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LARGE, DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING
THESE INITIAL WAVES ARE ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE, DOUBT THEY
WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER IS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK AND THROUGH THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. BETTER FZFG CHANCES EXIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE SAME AREAS - AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KPSR 060905
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO ARIZONA. LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS SRN AZ WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ.
PWAT VALUES WERE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING
FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT
PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69
DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE THE WARM AIR ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060654
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
UTAH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH
OF POINT REYES. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 060654
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
UTAH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH
OF POINT REYES. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060654
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...SWELLS OFF THE COAST HAVE
DECREASED TO 7 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVES ARE LOWER THE LONGER PERIODS
MAKE THE WAVES CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE
SHORE BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PST FRIDAY...A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
UTAH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH
OF POINT REYES. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 060559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 060559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS WHERE LOCALLY PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN LIFR VIS AND
CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 7 PM SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060547
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/0545Z

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VERY HIGH CONFIDECNE IN CAVU TAFS XCP AT KPRB WHERE THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS 11Z-15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LLWS OR
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z AT KOXR...KVNY AND KBUR.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LLWS OR TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSTO 060541
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
941 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers over Shasta county overnight. Otherwise...dry
weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing high clouds over NorCal this evening with a few showers
over northern Shasta county...as weakening frontal band approaches.
Have updated forecast for isolated/scattered showers over Shasta
county overnight. Expecting rainfall amounts to be light generally
less than 0.10 inches. Elsewhere...mostly cloudy skies with patchy
valley fog. Although...increasing clouds should really limit the
coverage.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful day across the area with little in the way of
cloud cover and temperatures rebounding nicely from this morning.
A weak system will move onshore tonight but will encounter
building ridge. Moisture is limited so at best, only expecting a
few showers across northern Shasta County. Fog formation was
patchy and limited this morning to the Valley, generally south of
Sacramento. Expect that to be the case Saturday morning.
Otherwise, ridge will continue to amplify with dry weather and warming
trend into early next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day
with Valley sites in the 70s and higher elevations in the 60s. A
few locations may come close to daily records (like Sacramento and
Stockton).

CEO

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Robust ridging will slowly shift eastward into mid-week with dry
weather and above normal temperatures for Tues-Weds. As ridge
shifts east, temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend but
will still be a degree or two above normal by the end of the work
week. Model differences remain for the end of the week and into
the weekend, regarding the breakdown of the ridge. Still a chance
for some precip by the end of the period but at this point, not
looking like anything substantial. Will have to wait and see.

CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

Weak stm movg acrs far nrn ptns of CA ovngt into Sat mrng with
isold MVFR poss ovr Shasta mtns in lgt pcpn. Otrw, mnly VFR conds
for Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc in Cntrl Vly S of KOVE and in mtn
vlys...lcl MVFR vsby poss in BR btwn 08z-20z Sat with isold LIFR
in FG poss btwn 10-18z Sat. SFC wnds genly lgt tngt and Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 060541
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
941 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers over Shasta county overnight. Otherwise...dry
weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing high clouds over NorCal this evening with a few showers
over northern Shasta county...as weakening frontal band approaches.
Have updated forecast for isolated/scattered showers over Shasta
county overnight. Expecting rainfall amounts to be light generally
less than 0.10 inches. Elsewhere...mostly cloudy skies with patchy
valley fog. Although...increasing clouds should really limit the
coverage.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful day across the area with little in the way of
cloud cover and temperatures rebounding nicely from this morning.
A weak system will move onshore tonight but will encounter
building ridge. Moisture is limited so at best, only expecting a
few showers across northern Shasta County. Fog formation was
patchy and limited this morning to the Valley, generally south of
Sacramento. Expect that to be the case Saturday morning.
Otherwise, ridge will continue to amplify with dry weather and warming
trend into early next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day
with Valley sites in the 70s and higher elevations in the 60s. A
few locations may come close to daily records (like Sacramento and
Stockton).

CEO

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Robust ridging will slowly shift eastward into mid-week with dry
weather and above normal temperatures for Tues-Weds. As ridge
shifts east, temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend but
will still be a degree or two above normal by the end of the work
week. Model differences remain for the end of the week and into
the weekend, regarding the breakdown of the ridge. Still a chance
for some precip by the end of the period but at this point, not
looking like anything substantial. Will have to wait and see.

CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

Weak stm movg acrs far nrn ptns of CA ovngt into Sat mrng with
isold MVFR poss ovr Shasta mtns in lgt pcpn. Otrw, mnly VFR conds
for Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc in Cntrl Vly S of KOVE and in mtn
vlys...lcl MVFR vsby poss in BR btwn 08z-20z Sat with isold LIFR
in FG poss btwn 10-18z Sat. SFC wnds genly lgt tngt and Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 060541
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
941 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers over Shasta county overnight. Otherwise...dry
weather and warm temperatures this weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing high clouds over NorCal this evening with a few showers
over northern Shasta county...as weakening frontal band approaches.
Have updated forecast for isolated/scattered showers over Shasta
county overnight. Expecting rainfall amounts to be light generally
less than 0.10 inches. Elsewhere...mostly cloudy skies with patchy
valley fog. Although...increasing clouds should really limit the
coverage.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful day across the area with little in the way of
cloud cover and temperatures rebounding nicely from this morning.
A weak system will move onshore tonight but will encounter
building ridge. Moisture is limited so at best, only expecting a
few showers across northern Shasta County. Fog formation was
patchy and limited this morning to the Valley, generally south of
Sacramento. Expect that to be the case Saturday morning.
Otherwise, ridge will continue to amplify with dry weather and warming
trend into early next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day
with Valley sites in the 70s and higher elevations in the 60s. A
few locations may come close to daily records (like Sacramento and
Stockton).

CEO

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Robust ridging will slowly shift eastward into mid-week with dry
weather and above normal temperatures for Tues-Weds. As ridge
shifts east, temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend but
will still be a degree or two above normal by the end of the work
week. Model differences remain for the end of the week and into
the weekend, regarding the breakdown of the ridge. Still a chance
for some precip by the end of the period but at this point, not
looking like anything substantial. Will have to wait and see.

CEO
&&

.AVIATION...

Weak stm movg acrs far nrn ptns of CA ovngt into Sat mrng with
isold MVFR poss ovr Shasta mtns in lgt pcpn. Otrw, mnly VFR conds
for Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc in Cntrl Vly S of KOVE and in mtn
vlys...lcl MVFR vsby poss in BR btwn 08z-20z Sat with isold LIFR
in FG poss btwn 10-18z Sat. SFC wnds genly lgt tngt and Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSGX 060534
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING WARM DAYS...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINOR COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR SANTA ANA
WEATHER PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE STRONG
EAST WINDS THAT SURFACED EARLIER TODAY HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING
BUT WERE STILL GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING 50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL ECLIPSE 80 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY.

THE WINDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN EVEN MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM12 PROJECTS 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40KT OVER SO-CAL
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A 1043 MB
HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS SETS THE TABLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 70 MPH AT TWO OR THREE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
STILL BREEZY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE THESE DAYS...AS ARE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.

MINOR COOLING LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT THE RIDGE DOESN`T
REALLY DISAPPEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 060430Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNINGS. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE
MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 830 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF HAS LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WAS CANCELLED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 060534
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING WARM DAYS...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINOR COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR SANTA ANA
WEATHER PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE STRONG
EAST WINDS THAT SURFACED EARLIER TODAY HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING
BUT WERE STILL GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING 50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL ECLIPSE 80 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY.

THE WINDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN EVEN MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM12 PROJECTS 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40KT OVER SO-CAL
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A 1043 MB
HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS SETS THE TABLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 70 MPH AT TWO OR THREE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
STILL BREEZY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE THESE DAYS...AS ARE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.

MINOR COOLING LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT THE RIDGE DOESN`T
REALLY DISAPPEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 060430Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNINGS. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE
MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 830 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF HAS LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WAS CANCELLED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 060534
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING WARM DAYS...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINOR COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR SANTA ANA
WEATHER PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE STRONG
EAST WINDS THAT SURFACED EARLIER TODAY HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING
BUT WERE STILL GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING 50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL ECLIPSE 80 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY.

THE WINDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN EVEN MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM12 PROJECTS 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40KT OVER SO-CAL
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A 1043 MB
HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS SETS THE TABLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 70 MPH AT TWO OR THREE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
STILL BREEZY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE THESE DAYS...AS ARE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.

MINOR COOLING LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT THE RIDGE DOESN`T
REALLY DISAPPEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 060430Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNINGS. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE
MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 830 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF HAS LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WAS CANCELLED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 060534
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING WARM DAYS...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINOR COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR SANTA ANA
WEATHER PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE STRONG
EAST WINDS THAT SURFACED EARLIER TODAY HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING
BUT WERE STILL GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING 50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL ECLIPSE 80 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY.

THE WINDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN EVEN MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM12 PROJECTS 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40KT OVER SO-CAL
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A 1043 MB
HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS SETS THE TABLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 70 MPH AT TWO OR THREE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
STILL BREEZY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE THESE DAYS...AS ARE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.

MINOR COOLING LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT THE RIDGE DOESN`T
REALLY DISAPPEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 060430Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNINGS. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE
MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 830 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF HAS LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WAS CANCELLED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 060534
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING WARM DAYS...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINOR COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR SANTA ANA
WEATHER PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE STRONG
EAST WINDS THAT SURFACED EARLIER TODAY HAD DIMINISHED THIS EVENING
BUT WERE STILL GUSTING FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH SANTA ANA
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING 50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TOMORROWS HIGHS WHERE
MAX TEMPS WILL ECLIPSE 80 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY.

THE WINDS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN EVEN MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM12 PROJECTS 850 MB WINDS OF 30-40KT OVER SO-CAL
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A 1043 MB
HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS SETS THE TABLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 70 MPH AT TWO OR THREE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
STILL BREEZY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORD HIGH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE THESE DAYS...AS ARE RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS.

MINOR COOLING LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. BUT THE RIDGE DOESN`T
REALLY DISAPPEAR...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 060430Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNINGS. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED OVER/W OF THE
MTNS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 830 PM...THE ELEVATED SURF HAS LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WAS CANCELLED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060511
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
911 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AND THE ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SANTA ANA EVENT BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST 850 AND 950 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WITH KLAX-DAG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING -9 MB. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5
TO -6 MB TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN
FAVORED PARTS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON
LIFE SUPPORT BUT WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE
LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS, POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS
TO AT LEAST TREND ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S WED-FRI. STILL A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/900 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS COULD CREATE
LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 060458
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060458
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 060458
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PST FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES NUDGED
UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AIDED IN THE WARM
UP. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70S SCATTERED HERE AND THERE. DOWN SLOPING
OFF THE COASTAL AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINS HELPED NUDGE A FEW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC TO SFO CURRENTLY STANDS
AT 4.6 MB AS OF THIS PAST HOUR.

A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SLIGHTLY FLATTENED
THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND
THE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 16 C WHILE 500MB
HEIGHT TOP OUT AT AROUND 585 DAM ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND INTRODUCING A
COOLER AIRMASS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE NOT COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS SOLUTIONS
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MODELS DO HOWEVER INDICATE WET
WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 060301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
SPILLED INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
LOW WAS POSITIONED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WAS ADVECTING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO MEXICO...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT ANY POINT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING REVEAL UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH INHERITED
FORECAST THINKING AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INLAND AND H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
582DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO SUGGESTING
SIMILAR VALUES WHICH WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SIMILARLY...850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15-16C EACH
AFTERNOON AND DRY/SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. AT THIS POINT IT`S NOT A MATTER OF IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY HOW MUCH AND HOW MANY
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS AT PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
/84/...THURSDAY /83/...AND FRIDAY /84/ COULD CERTAINLY BE IN
JEOPARDY. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE A LOCK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 060301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
SPILLED INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
LOW WAS POSITIONED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WAS ADVECTING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO MEXICO...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT ANY POINT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING REVEAL UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH INHERITED
FORECAST THINKING AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INLAND AND H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
582DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO SUGGESTING
SIMILAR VALUES WHICH WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SIMILARLY...850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15-16C EACH
AFTERNOON AND DRY/SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. AT THIS POINT IT`S NOT A MATTER OF IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY HOW MUCH AND HOW MANY
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS AT PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
/84/...THURSDAY /83/...AND FRIDAY /84/ COULD CERTAINLY BE IN
JEOPARDY. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE A LOCK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 060301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
SPILLED INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
LOW WAS POSITIONED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WAS ADVECTING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO MEXICO...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT ANY POINT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING REVEAL UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH INHERITED
FORECAST THINKING AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INLAND AND H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
582DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO SUGGESTING
SIMILAR VALUES WHICH WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SIMILARLY...850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15-16C EACH
AFTERNOON AND DRY/SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. AT THIS POINT IT`S NOT A MATTER OF IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY HOW MUCH AND HOW MANY
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS AT PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
/84/...THURSDAY /83/...AND FRIDAY /84/ COULD CERTAINLY BE IN
JEOPARDY. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE A LOCK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 060301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
SPILLED INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
LOW WAS POSITIONED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WAS ADVECTING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO MEXICO...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT ANY POINT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING REVEAL UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH INHERITED
FORECAST THINKING AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INLAND AND H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
582DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO SUGGESTING
SIMILAR VALUES WHICH WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SIMILARLY...850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15-16C EACH
AFTERNOON AND DRY/SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. AT THIS POINT IT`S NOT A MATTER OF IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY HOW MUCH AND HOW MANY
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS AT PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
/84/...THURSDAY /83/...AND FRIDAY /84/ COULD CERTAINLY BE IN
JEOPARDY. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE A LOCK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 060301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
801 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
SPILLED INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
LOW WAS POSITIONED WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WAS ADVECTING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO MEXICO...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AT ANY POINT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING REVEAL UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH INHERITED
FORECAST THINKING AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA AND ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INLAND AND H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
582DM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO SUGGESTING
SIMILAR VALUES WHICH WOULD BE WELL INTO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SIMILARLY...850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15-16C EACH
AFTERNOON AND DRY/SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. AT THIS POINT IT`S NOT A MATTER OF IF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY HOW MUCH AND HOW MANY
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS AT PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
/84/...THURSDAY /83/...AND FRIDAY /84/ COULD CERTAINLY BE IN
JEOPARDY. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK BUT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE A LOCK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS66 KMTR 060051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
HAZY CONDITIONS...AREA TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE WITH 4.7 MB FROM WMC TO SFO.

STILL LOOKING AT GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
CLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 060051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
HAZY CONDITIONS...AREA TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE WITH 4.7 MB FROM WMC TO SFO.

STILL LOOKING AT GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
CLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 060051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
HAZY CONDITIONS...AREA TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE WITH 4.7 MB FROM WMC TO SFO.

STILL LOOKING AT GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
CLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PATCHY
FOG WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOCAL IFR AND LIFR IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 060025
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED AVATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TWIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM.

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KEKA 052329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VIS AND IR SAT SHOW THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING THIS ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN...BUT SOME RAIN IS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS ARE
NOW LOOKING TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA AND MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND IS SHOWING JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED IN CASE IT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY MORNING ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE EXACT COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
ON SUNDAY INLAND AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S.
INLAND AREAS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY
AT 62. THE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT
THIS ALSO MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING THEME IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT FROM
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WEAKENING
AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS HOLDING TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL
BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME...THE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP AS THEY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15-20KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THEM IN MVFR FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0Z-6Z DUE TO ONSET OF RAIN. KUKI HAS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -RA OR -DZ...BUT CURRENT MODEL
DATA AND THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. KUKI DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT FALLING TO IFR
AND LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOWERING CIGS...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 9Z OR SO. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING KCEC AND PERHAPS EVEN KACV
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -DZ AND SOME LOWERING CIGS.
BC/KAR.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE WATERS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN BUILDING
STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING WESTERLY 10 FT
15 SECOND SWELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND LIKEWISE THE LARGEST
SHORT PERIOD SEAS...REMAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE FRESH BREEZES AND PERHAPS A FEW NEAR
GALE STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE STEEPER SOUTHERLY WAVES TO SETTLE.
MEANWHILE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHERLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA STATE TO
BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD SWELL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ON MONDAY AS FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SWELL TRAIN ARRIVE IN THE WATERS. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 052329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VIS AND IR SAT SHOW THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING THIS ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN...BUT SOME RAIN IS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS ARE
NOW LOOKING TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA AND MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND IS SHOWING JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED IN CASE IT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY MORNING ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE EXACT COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
ON SUNDAY INLAND AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S.
INLAND AREAS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY
AT 62. THE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT
THIS ALSO MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING THEME IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT FROM
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WEAKENING
AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS HOLDING TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL
BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME...THE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP AS THEY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15-20KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THEM IN MVFR FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0Z-6Z DUE TO ONSET OF RAIN. KUKI HAS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -RA OR -DZ...BUT CURRENT MODEL
DATA AND THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. KUKI DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT FALLING TO IFR
AND LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOWERING CIGS...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 9Z OR SO. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING KCEC AND PERHAPS EVEN KACV
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -DZ AND SOME LOWERING CIGS.
BC/KAR.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE WATERS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN BUILDING
STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING WESTERLY 10 FT
15 SECOND SWELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND LIKEWISE THE LARGEST
SHORT PERIOD SEAS...REMAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE FRESH BREEZES AND PERHAPS A FEW NEAR
GALE STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE STEEPER SOUTHERLY WAVES TO SETTLE.
MEANWHILE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHERLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA STATE TO
BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD SWELL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ON MONDAY AS FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SWELL TRAIN ARRIVE IN THE WATERS. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 052329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VIS AND IR SAT SHOW THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING THIS ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN...BUT SOME RAIN IS
STILL EXPECTED OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. AMOUNTS ARE
NOW LOOKING TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA AND MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS AND IS SHOWING JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED IN CASE IT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY MORNING ANY LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE EXACT COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
ON SUNDAY INLAND AND AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S.
INLAND AREAS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. AREAS THAT SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY STAY COOLER. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR IS IN THE WEAVERVILLE AREA SO KEPT THEIR HIGHS ONLY
AT 62. THE RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG MAKING THE AIR ALOFT WARM...BUT
THIS ALSO MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERARCHING THEME IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REVOLVE AROUND A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT FROM
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SEVERAL
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WEAKENING
AS THEY DO SO. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS HOLDING TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER...AS IT WILL
BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO ENCOUNTER THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS IS LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...AS THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR WHILE THE RIDGE
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. BEYOND FRIDAY...WHILE THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME...THE NORTHERLY POSITION OF THE POLAR JET WILL LIKELY PUT THE
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH PERIOD GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
/BRC

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
PICK UP AS THEY TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15-20KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THEM IN MVFR FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0Z-6Z DUE TO ONSET OF RAIN. KUKI HAS
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -RA OR -DZ...BUT CURRENT MODEL
DATA AND THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. KUKI DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT FALLING TO IFR
AND LIFR TONIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOWERING CIGS...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 9Z OR SO. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COME LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING KCEC AND PERHAPS EVEN KACV
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SOME -DZ AND SOME LOWERING CIGS.
BC/KAR.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE WATERS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN BUILDING
STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING WESTERLY 10 FT
15 SECOND SWELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND LIKEWISE THE LARGEST
SHORT PERIOD SEAS...REMAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WHERE FRESH BREEZES AND PERHAPS A FEW NEAR
GALE STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE STEEPER SOUTHERLY WAVES TO SETTLE.
MEANWHILE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIKELY FALLING BELOW 10 FEET BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING
NORTHERLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA STATE TO
BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD SWELL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ON MONDAY AS FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SWELL TRAIN ARRIVE IN THE WATERS. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG



000
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KMTR 052240
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
240 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PST FRIDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
HAZY CONDITIONS...AREA TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS ARE RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE WITH 4.7 MB FROM WMC TO SFO.

STILL LOOKING AT GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
SLIGHTLY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
CLIPPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST FRIDAY...FOG IS LINGERING THIS
MORNING IN THE EAST BAY NEAR CONCORD AND ALSO IN THE SONOMA VALLEY
INCLUDING SANTA ROSA. THIS FOG IS THINNING AND WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...EXCEPT MODERATE THROUGH THE GOLDEN
GATE. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN NEAR THE COAST
AFTER 22Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BACKING LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH AROUND 04Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:27 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG SUR. MODERATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KHNX 052147
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
147 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER CA IS PROVIDING FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. FOG THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO
A SMALL PORTION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN PORTIONS OF
FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND HAD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 1100 AM PST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY AND
ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING 2-4 DEG F ABOVE YDAY IS RESPONSE TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN IS PRODUCED OFFSHORE SURFACE P-GRADS WHICH HAVE
RESULTED IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW
COAST WHICH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. 18Z WRF IS
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY JUST OFF THE CA
SATRUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY BUILD INLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR
OUR AREA ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AS A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY HOWEVER...AS OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE FOG FORMATION AND
FOG COULD ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE THAT
BECOMES MORE PREVALENT IN FEBRUARY. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN MIGHT INCREASE OFFSHORE P-GRADS ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BELOW THE PASSES IN KERN COUNTY
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW TURNING ONSHORE AND A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OUR AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH ALONG WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS DEFLECTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 10Z SATURDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GROW TO A LIKELY CHANCE AROUND
KMER/KMCE AND KHJO/KVIS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...LIKELY
CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF LIFR AT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 6 2016...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND KINGS COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 052147
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
147 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER CA IS PROVIDING FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. FOG THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO
A SMALL PORTION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN PORTIONS OF
FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND HAD COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 1100 AM PST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY AND
ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING 2-4 DEG F ABOVE YDAY IS RESPONSE TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN IS PRODUCED OFFSHORE SURFACE P-GRADS WHICH HAVE
RESULTED IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PAC NW
COAST WHICH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND
TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. 18Z WRF IS
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY JUST OFF THE CA
SATRUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY BUILD INLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR
OUR AREA ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AS A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES...NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY HOWEVER...AS OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE FOG FORMATION AND
FOG COULD ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE THAT
BECOMES MORE PREVALENT IN FEBRUARY. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN MIGHT INCREASE OFFSHORE P-GRADS ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BELOW THE PASSES IN KERN COUNTY
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE UPPER FLOW TURNING ONSHORE AND A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OUR AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH ALONG WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS DEFLECTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 10Z SATURDAY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL GROW TO A LIKELY CHANCE AROUND
KMER/KMCE AND KHJO/KVIS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...LIKELY
CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF LIFR AT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 6 2016...
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN AND KINGS COUNTIES. FURTHER
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 052137
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
137 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS, IN THE VICINITY OF -5 TO -6 MB TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO
GENERATE OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS IN FAVORED PARTS OF
LA/VENTURA COUNTIES. CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT BUT
WILL LET THEM LIMP ALONG FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL
SEE ANOTHER BUMP IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

LAST NIGHT THE NAM STARTED SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS CONTINUED
WITH THE 12Z NAM TODAY WITH 50-60KT SHOWING UP AT VERY LOW
ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A -9.1 LAX-DAG GRADIENT. THE
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG BUT 35-40KT 3 DAYS OUT IS STILL PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE. SO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS
AND LIKELY WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE MTNS, INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE
80S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

GRADIENTS AND UPPER SUPPORT DECREASE QUITE A BIT TUESDAY SO WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO CLIMB ONE
MORE DAY MAKING TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS,
POSSIBLY EVEN RECORD BREAKING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS A
BIT TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD ALLOW GRADIENTS TO AT LEAST TREND
ONSHORE AND "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S WED-FRI. STILL
A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1800Z...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER 06/22Z WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 06/05Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
06/04Z AND AFTER 06/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 8 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...05/200 PM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/200 PM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING IN VENTURA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET THIS
EVENING. LOW TIDE AROUND ZERO FEET HAD OCCURRED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TIDE NEAR 4 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
NEAR 6 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 052127
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
127 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARMER DAYS.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING AND COMPARING IT TO YESTERDAYS...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MOST OF THE LAYER UP TO
400 MB. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS IS DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS...IN ADDITION TO STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW...BROUGHT MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 8 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 8 AM YESTERDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH ARE UP TO 12.3 MB...AND 11.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. THUS...WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
IN THE PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH SEVERAL PLACES
REACHING 40-50 MPH CURRENTLY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS HAS HAD THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR...REACHING 68 MPH AT 3 AM
THIS MORNING. CANSAC-WRF INDICATES GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING AT ABOUT
THIS STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN A LITTLE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER PULSE OF
WINDS OCCURS LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...SAN GORGONIO
PASS...AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BACK OFF A LITTLE LATER SATURDAY...AND
THEN MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENTS INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASING FURTHER MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15-18 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...AND 22-25 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF NORTHEAST 25-40 KT 850 MB WINDS
ARRIVE. THUS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING LOOKS LIKE WHEN
THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WINDS...WE COULD SEE AREAS OF WIND
GUSTS REACHING 50-60 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES/CANYONS AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH THE WINDIEST SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 75 MPH. 30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER AND
WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH...IN ADDITION
TO PERSISTENT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WARMER DAYS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN
24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAY-TIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS TODAY...AND THEN 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY 15-20...AND LOCALLY 25
DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES...70S FOR
THE HIGH DESERTS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...LOW 80S IN THE LOWER
DESERTS...AND 60S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH
90 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND WEAKENING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
052100Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF MOD
UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING NEAR KONT
AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES PEAKED AT 9 FT/18 SEC
THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF 3 TO 6
FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH
OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALSO LIKELY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 052112
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...OCCASIONAL NORTH WINDS IN THE
8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THROUGH 23Z
SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH WIND 7 TO 12 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 052112
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED
BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...OCCASIONAL NORTH WINDS IN THE
8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THROUGH 23Z
SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH WIND 7 TO 12 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KSTO 052106
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
106 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and warm temperatures are expected for this weekend
into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful day across the area with little in the way of
cloud cover and temperatures rebounding nicely from this morning.
A weak system will move onshore tonight but will encounter
building ridge. Moisture is limited so at best, only expecting a
few showers across northern Shasta County. Fog formation was
patchy and limited this morning to the Valley, generally south of
Sacramento. Expect that to be the case Saturday morning.
Otherwise, ridge will continue to amplify with dry weather and warming
trend into early next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day
with Valley sites in the 70s and higher elevations in the 60s. A
few locations may come close to daily records (like Sacramento and
Stockton).

CEO

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Robust ridging will slowly shift eastward into mid-week with dry
weather and above normal temperatures for Tues-Weds. As ridge
shifts east, temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend but
will still be a degree or two above normal by the end of the work
week. Model differences remain for the end of the week and into
the weekend, regarding the breakdown of the ridge. Still a chance
for some precip by the end of the period but at this point, not
looking like anything substantial. Will have to wait and see.

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
A very weak system will brush Northern California this evening
and may bring a few sprinkles to the northern mountains. Ceilings
should not be an issue as they are expected to only lower to
around 10 kft. KMYV and southward may be clear enough tonight for
some patchy fog, otherwise, VFR conditions with light and variable
winds.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051818
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1018 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND SHIP TRAILS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC...INDICATIVE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTH BAY
AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR AT SANTA ROSA WHICH IS STILL SHOWING 1/4
MILE IN FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY IN MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OFFSHORE
WITH WMC-SFO NOW AT 7.8 MB.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 70S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE STORM
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND MORNING
COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM UKIAH TO SANTA
ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG
IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE DELTA AND CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE. STILL SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE IF AND HOW
MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR TERMINALS SUCH AS
NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST FRIDAY...FOG IS LINGERING THIS
MORNING IN THE EAST BAY NEAR CONCORD AND ALSO IN THE SONOMA VALLEY
INCLUDING SANTA ROSA. THIS FOG IS THINNING AND WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 20Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...EXCEPT MODERATE THROUGH THE GOLDEN
GATE. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN NEAR THE COAST
AFTER 22Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS. BACKING LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z THEN NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH AROUND 04Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE
MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES...THE GOLDEN GATE
BRIDGE...AND MONTEREY BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS/RWW
AVIATION: WEYGAND
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 051802
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1800Z...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER 06/22Z WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 06/05Z. MIXED WEAK
ONSHORE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
06/04Z AND AFTER 06/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1700Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY AND OFFSHORE
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 8 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...04/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35-51. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 051743
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
943 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD WARMTH IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

SANTA ANA WINDS REALLY STRUGGLING TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE ACTUALLY LIGHTER IN SOME AREAS THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWED 35-40KT BELOW 850MB BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THAT`S REALLY HAPPENING AS GRADIENTS ARE
ABOUT 1MB LESS THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE 35KT OR
LESS. UPPER SUPPORT IS ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW BUT ODDLY ENOUGH NOW
THE NAM IS FORECASTING A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN TODAY RATHER THAN
WEAKER SO PERHAPS WINDS WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS THEN. SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THAN A GOOD 10KT STRONGER MONDAY. IN SHORT, MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS THEN SOLID
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LOW END WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN SOME AREAS
MONDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE. THE
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN 9 MB
OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG
FOR THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE
WIND ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG
SANTA ANA WIND EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON
THICKNESSES AND 950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MON...TO NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE
WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90
DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION
TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...05/900 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WITHIN AN AREA FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTENDING OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS
WILL LIKLEY BE SHORT-LIVED TODAY AND BECOME NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FROM PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND WILL LIKELY END THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BEACHES...05/900 AM...

SURF WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS
EVENING ALONG VENTURA COUNTY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT AND WILL FALL BELOW 10 FEET
THIS EVENING. HIGH TIDE WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LOW TIDE
AROUND ZERO FEET WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONE 40. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      40-41-44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 41. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM
      PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 645-670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...30
BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051721
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
921 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARMER DAYS.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVING OVER
CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING AND COMPARING IT TO
YESTERDAYS...IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THROUGH MOST OF THE LAYER UP TO 400 MB. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS
IS DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THIS...IN ADDITION TO STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW...BROUGHT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. 8 AM TEMPERATURES WERE 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 8 AM
YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH ARE UP TO 13.1 MB...AND 10.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. THUS...WE ARE SEEING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH SEVERAL PLACES REACHING
45-50 MPH CURRENTLY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS
HAD THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR...REACHING 68 MPH AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ABOUT THIS STRENGTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENTS START TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND SO WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...SAN GORGONIO PASS...AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS THEN SHOW THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...AND INCREASING
FURTHER MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15-18 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...AND 22-25 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF NORTHEAST 25-40 KT 850 MB WINDS
ARRIVE. THUS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WINDS...WE COULD SEE AREAS OF WIND
GUSTS REACHING 50-60 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES/CANYONS AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH THE WINDIEST SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 75 MPH. 30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER AND
WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH...IN ADDITION
TO PERSISTENT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WARMER DAYS. DAY-TIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MANY AREAS TODAY...AND THEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY 15-20...AND LOCALLY 25 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES...70S FOR THE HIGH DESERTS
AND LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...LOW 80S IN THE LOWER DESERTS...AND 60S
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
051600Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY
BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051721
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
921 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARMER DAYS.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVING OVER
CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING AND COMPARING IT TO
YESTERDAYS...IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THROUGH MOST OF THE LAYER UP TO 400 MB. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS
IS DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THIS...IN ADDITION TO STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW...BROUGHT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. 8 AM TEMPERATURES WERE 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 8 AM
YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH ARE UP TO 13.1 MB...AND 10.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. THUS...WE ARE SEEING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH SEVERAL PLACES REACHING
45-50 MPH CURRENTLY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS
HAD THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR...REACHING 68 MPH AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ABOUT THIS STRENGTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENTS START TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND SO WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...SAN GORGONIO PASS...AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS THEN SHOW THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...AND INCREASING
FURTHER MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15-18 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...AND 22-25 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF NORTHEAST 25-40 KT 850 MB WINDS
ARRIVE. THUS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WINDS...WE COULD SEE AREAS OF WIND
GUSTS REACHING 50-60 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES/CANYONS AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH THE WINDIEST SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 75 MPH. 30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER AND
WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH...IN ADDITION
TO PERSISTENT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WARMER DAYS. DAY-TIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MANY AREAS TODAY...AND THEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY 15-20...AND LOCALLY 25 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES...70S FOR THE HIGH DESERTS
AND LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...LOW 80S IN THE LOWER DESERTS...AND 60S
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
051600Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY
BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051721
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
921 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARMER DAYS.
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE PASSES...CANYONS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS STRONGEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE INDICATES UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVING OVER
CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING AND COMPARING IT TO
YESTERDAYS...IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THROUGH MOST OF THE LAYER UP TO 400 MB. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS
IS DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. THIS...IN ADDITION TO STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW...BROUGHT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. 8 AM TEMPERATURES WERE 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 8 AM
YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH ARE UP TO 13.1 MB...AND 10.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. THUS...WE ARE SEEING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH SEVERAL PLACES REACHING
45-50 MPH CURRENTLY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS
HAD THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR...REACHING 68 MPH AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ABOUT THIS STRENGTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENTS START TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND SO WINDS WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...SAN GORGONIO PASS...AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS THEN SHOW THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...AND INCREASING
FURTHER MONDAY MORNING UP TO 15-18 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
TONOPAH...AND 22-25 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SAME
TIME...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF NORTHEAST 25-40 KT 850 MB WINDS
ARRIVE. THUS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WHEN THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WINDS...WE COULD SEE AREAS OF WIND
GUSTS REACHING 50-60 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES/CANYONS AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WITH THE WINDIEST SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 75 MPH. 30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE GRADIENTS WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER AND
WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH...IN ADDITION
TO PERSISTENT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WARMER DAYS. DAY-TIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MANY AREAS TODAY...AND THEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY 15-20...AND LOCALLY 25 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES...70S FOR THE HIGH DESERTS
AND LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...LOW 80S IN THE LOWER DESERTS...AND 60S
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
051600Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY
BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AREAS OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS



000
FXUS66 KMTR 051714
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
914 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND SHIP TRAILS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC...INDICATIVE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTH BAY
AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR AT SANTA ROSA WHICH IS STILL SHOWING 1/4
MILE IN FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY IN MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OFFSHORE
WITH WMC-SFO NOW AT 7.8 MB.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 70S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE STORM
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND MORNING
COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM UKIAH TO SANTA
ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG
IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE DELTA AND CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE. STILL SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE IF AND HOW
MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR TERMINALS SUCH AS
NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BACKING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 09:10 AM PST FRIDAY...THE OVERALL TREND AT THE
COASTAL BUOYS HAS BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE THURSDAY. MODERATE WESTERLY
SWELL ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AROUND 10 FEET AT 15 SECONDS. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER TODAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE
SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:08 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE
MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES...THE GOLDEN GATE
BRIDGE...AND MONTEREY BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS/RWW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE/BEACHES: MM
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051655
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND SHIP TRAILS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC...INDICATIVE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTH BAY
AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR AT SANTA ROSA WHICH IS STILL SHOWING 1/4
MILE IN FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY IN MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OFFSHORE
WITH WMC-SFO NOW AT 7.8 MB.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 70S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE STORM
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND MORNING
COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM UKIAH TO SANTA
ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG
IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE DELTA AND CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE. STILL SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE IF AND HOW
MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR TERMINALS SUCH AS
NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BACKING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:28 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE
MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES...THE GOLDEN GATE
BRIDGE...AND MONTEREY BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS/RWW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051655
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND SHIP TRAILS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC...INDICATIVE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTH BAY
AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR AT SANTA ROSA WHICH IS STILL SHOWING 1/4
MILE IN FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY IN MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OFFSHORE
WITH WMC-SFO NOW AT 7.8 MB.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 70S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE STORM
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND MORNING
COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM UKIAH TO SANTA
ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG
IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE DELTA AND CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE. STILL SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE IF AND HOW
MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR TERMINALS SUCH AS
NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BACKING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:28 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE
MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES...THE GOLDEN GATE
BRIDGE...AND MONTEREY BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS/RWW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 051655
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 AM PST FRIDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...AND SHIP TRAILS OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC...INDICATIVE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT THE NORTH BAY
AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR AT SANTA ROSA WHICH IS STILL SHOWING 1/4
MILE IN FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY IN MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OFFSHORE
WITH WMC-SFO NOW AT 7.8 MB.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND...AND HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 70S IN
INLAND LOCATIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE STORM
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION AND MORNING
COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM UKIAH TO SANTA
ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING AROUND AS FOG
IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE DELTA AND CENTRAL
VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE. STILL SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE IF AND HOW
MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR TERMINALS SUCH AS
NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BACKING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:28 AM PST FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE
MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES...THE GOLDEN GATE
BRIDGE...AND MONTEREY BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS/RWW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 051624
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
824 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
COMING IN A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
CRESCENT CITY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH
MAKING IT INTO EUREKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MKK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 330 AM PST...

DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD
THURSDAY...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN
FREE UNTIL FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 051624
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
824 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POPS THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
COMING IN A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
CRESCENT CITY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTH
MAKING IT INTO EUREKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MKK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 330 AM PST...

DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD
THURSDAY...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN
FREE UNTIL FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG



000
FXUS65 KPSR 051421
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
720 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY. SOME NORTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...548 AM MST...

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST PUTTING ARIZONA
UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
DEPICTED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVELS WERE
DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. FOR TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS IN PLACE EACH DAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A 585DM CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE DATA CALLS FOR H5 HEIGHTS AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLIMB TO VALUES
ABOVE THAT SEEN IN THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AND AS SUCH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WARMER SERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS CLIMB...AT A MINIMUM...TO
READINGS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE 585DM H5 HIGH CENTER TRANSLATES
INLAND AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS FOR NOW. DESPITE THIS...WE DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES OR SO WITH THE WARMER DESERTS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
WE MAY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
A VERY SLIGHT FALLOFF IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GONNA
GET WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO OUR
NORTH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA.
SPEEDS WILL GNLY BE 8KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A WINDOW DURING THE
MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHERE SOME STRONGER READINGS 12-15KTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051321 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BACKING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 051248
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
548 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST PUTTING ARIZONA
UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
DEPICTED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVELS WERE
DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. FOR TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS IN PLACE EACH DAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A 585DM CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE DATA CALLS FOR H5 HEIGHTS AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLIMB TO VALUES
ABOVE THAT SEEN IN THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AND AS SUCH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WARMER SERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS CLIMB...AT A MINIMUM...TO
READINGS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE 585DM H5 HIGH CENTER TRANSLATES
INLAND AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS FOR NOW. DESPITE THIS...WE DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES OR SO WITH THE WARMER DESERTS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
WE MAY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
A VERY SLIGHT FALLOFF IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GONNA
GET WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO OUR
NORTH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA.
SPEEDS WILL GNLY BE 8KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A WINDOW DURING THE
MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHERE SOME STRONGER READINGS 12-15KTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 051248
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
548 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST PUTTING ARIZONA
UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
DEPICTED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVELS WERE
DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. FOR TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS IN PLACE EACH DAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A 585DM CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE DATA CALLS FOR H5 HEIGHTS AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLIMB TO VALUES
ABOVE THAT SEEN IN THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AND AS SUCH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WARMER SERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS CLIMB...AT A MINIMUM...TO
READINGS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE 585DM H5 HIGH CENTER TRANSLATES
INLAND AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS FOR NOW. DESPITE THIS...WE DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES OR SO WITH THE WARMER DESERTS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
WE MAY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
A VERY SLIGHT FALLOFF IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GONNA
GET WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO OUR
NORTH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA.
SPEEDS WILL GNLY BE 8KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A WINDOW DURING THE
MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHERE SOME STRONGER READINGS 12-15KTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 051248
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
548 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY
NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST PUTTING ARIZONA
UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
DEPICTED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVELS WERE
DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. FOR TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS IN PLACE EACH DAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A 585DM CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE DATA CALLS FOR H5 HEIGHTS AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLIMB TO VALUES
ABOVE THAT SEEN IN THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AND AS SUCH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WARMER SERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS CLIMB...AT A MINIMUM...TO
READINGS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE 585DM H5 HIGH CENTER TRANSLATES
INLAND AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS FOR NOW. DESPITE THIS...WE DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES OR SO WITH THE WARMER DESERTS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
WE MAY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
A VERY SLIGHT FALLOFF IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GONNA
GET WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO OUR
NORTH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA.
SPEEDS WILL GNLY BE 8KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A WINDOW DURING THE
MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHERE SOME STRONGER READINGS 12-15KTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS66 KHNX 051242
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

                   FEB 8TH        FEB 9TH       FEB 10TH

FRESNO             74/1987        71/2012        75/1961
BAKERSFIELD        77/1917        77/2012        79/1961
&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051242
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

                   FEB 8TH        FEB 9TH       FEB 10TH

FRESNO             74/1987        71/2012        75/1961
BAKERSFIELD        77/1917        77/2012        79/1961
&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051242
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

                        RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

                   FEB 8TH        FEB 9TH       FEB 10TH

FRESNO             74/1987        71/2012        75/1961
BAKERSFIELD        77/1917        77/2012        79/1961
&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 051221
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051221
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051221
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051221
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 051221
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
421 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA STORM FREE
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND IT WILL ALSO BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE
WARMING TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE TEMPS ARE TRENDING 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FOG IS SETTLING INTO THE SJ VLY AS OF THIS WRITING AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS AND SLOW TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. A RECURRENCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE BROADER PICTURE...ONE MORE STORM SYSTEM...THE LAST OF
SEVERAL...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY. A WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER IDAHO IN THE
MEANTIME AND WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS CA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES...SO THESE LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WINDS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS COULD BREACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN PLACES LIKE BEAR
VALLEY SPRINGS AND GRAPEVINE PEAK DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IF ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE SJ VLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD MITIGATE ITS FORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY...ABOVE THE INVERSION...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOSS OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO SUBLIMATION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LEVELING OFF DURING MIDWEEK. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN FACT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
BE CHALLENGED EACH OF THESE DAYS IN FAT AND BFL AND HAVE BEEN
PROVIDED BELOW. WHILE THIS RIDGE BRINGS UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OF NOTEWORTHINESS...THE
HIGH TEMP IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MIAMI FLORIDA. OTHERWISE NIGHTTIME
LOWS THROUGHOUT THE CWA WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE CWA. THE ECM IS MORE AGRESSIVELY
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. EVEN SO...
THE PATTERN LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
UNDER A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
IN MIST THRUOGH 20Z. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 5 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KINGS COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-05       75:1930     42:1989     56:1978     24:1899
KFAT 02-06       73:1930     45:1989     52:1898     24:1899
KFAT 02-07       77:1930     45:1929     53:2012     24:1989

KBFL 02-05       87:1912     39:1989     61:1978     28:1989
KBFL 02-06       77:1930     45:1989     55:1978     27:1989
KBFL 02-07       81:1987     46:1967     53:2012     26:1989
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 051211
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SLOW COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WERE NOW
RUNNING OVER 5 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD IN THE MTNS...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE VTU
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. HAVE ADDED THAT PORTION
OF THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING...WHICH
ALREADY INCLUDED THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE SANTA
CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS...AND TO 40
TO 45 MPH IN FAVORED COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO
60 MPH AT POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. WITH RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND
SOME WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS W OF THE MTNS...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CA. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO GET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE GETTING WINDS THIS
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT MAY BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SAT...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL WILL RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
RISING ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY VLYS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MON...THEN IT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE WRF HAVE REALLY
RAMPED UP THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR MONDAY MORNING...NOW MORE THAN
9 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG! IT ALSO SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND 850 MB WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN VTU COUNTIES. THE GFS ALSO HAS
STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF 4 MB BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG...STRONG FOR
THAT MODEL. BASED ON THE GRADIENTS ALONE...WIND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY...AND IF THE WRF IS CORRECT WITH THE WIND ALOFT
AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES ON MON. BASED ON THICKNESSES AND
950 MB TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MON...TO
NEAR RECORD NORMAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS ARE
AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE WRF...SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE DESERTS
COULD OFFSET ANY WARMING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER ON TUE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA MON OR TUE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME NEUTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY SO ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ERN PAC...CAUSING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION TO FALL. MAX TEMPS STILL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1115Z...

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE USUAL SITES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
TO LOCALLY MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7
KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT STRONGER AFTER SUNRISE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LGT TO MDT LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY FROM SUNRISE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP. 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...05/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD END BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FORECAST AS HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
OFFSHORE WINDS. SOME LEVEL OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. &&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 051154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VEERING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VEERING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VEERING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VEERING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
354 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST FRIDAY... CURRENTLY... WATCHING TULE
FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CONCERN THAT LIGHT
EAST WINDS IN THE DELTA COULD ADVECT FOG INTO THE EAST BAY.
LATEST TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES TEMPO THRU 15Z FOR FG AT KCCR KAPC
AND KSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. VEERING LIGHT WINDS. SE WINDS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. EAST WINDS THRU 18Z. WEST WINDS AFTER 00Z.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT WINDS. VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:46 AM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MOUTH OF COASTAL OPENINGS
SUCH AS NEAR PT REYES... THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE... AND MONTEREY
BAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE.
MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGE
BREAKING WAVES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
334 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:13 AM PST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE SLOWLY
ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP/KENNEDY
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 051134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
334 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE POSSIBLE. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT
DRY WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:34 AM PST FRIDAY...ONLY SHORT TERM CONCERN
IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AVIATION
AND MORNING COMMUTE. IN GENERAL SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER HAVE NOTED SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT FROM
UKIAH TO SANTA ROSA AND DOWN TO NOVATO. HOWEVER VSBYS ARE BOUNCING
AROUND AS FOG IS PATCHY AND EPHEMERAL IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE WERE ALSO WATCHING TULE FOG OUT IN THE
DELTA AND CENTRAL VALLEY. FOR A SHORT TIME SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON
HAVE REPORTED VSBYS IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH SHALLOW FOG IN PLACE.
STILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP SO EXPECT THE
FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE DELTA. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL
BE IF AND HOW MUCH SPILLS INTO SF BAY AND CORRESPONDING AIR
TERMINALS SUCH AS NAPA AND CONCORD AS GENERAL AVIATION IS GREATLY
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAY AREA. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS IN STORE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES OF NOTE INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ACTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR
TULE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW IN PLACE.

UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 70S AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE EAST BAY AND COASTAL HILLS
WILL HELP WITH ADIABATIC WARMING ASSUMING ANY VALLEY INVERSIONS
ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO MIX THROUGH.

RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH MORE NEAR OR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY BUT ANY WINDS OF NOTE SHOULD STAY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF 60S ACROSS THE
REGION AND EVEN SOME 70S FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS
OF MONTEREY REGION. IN FACT LOCALIZED TEMPS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES LIKE THE BIG SUR COAST THAT REMAIN REMOVED FROM ANY CENTRAL
VALLEY SLUDGE AND MAXIMIZE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF THE SANTA LUCIAS.

RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
TURNING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT JUST MEANS NO MORE
RECORD WARMTH BUT JUST SOME SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. LATEST LONG RANGE TRENDS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CONCERN AS THE GFS
RUNS OUT THROUGH 15 DAYS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FROM A DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE WE DONT WANT TO
LOSE FEBRUARY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CFS CLIMATE MODEL SHOWS
MARCH AS ABOVE NORMAL IN RELATION TO THE ONGOING EL NINO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:13 AM PST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE SLOWLY
ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 7TH HIGH AND YEAR      FEB 8TH HIGH AND YEAR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        71 IN 2006                 71 IN 2006
SAN RAFAEL       73 IN 2011                 72 IN 1980
NAPA             79 IN 2011                 73 IN 1987
SAN FRANCISCO    73 IN 2006                 74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 1987                 73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   72 IN 1987                 77 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 1963                 70 IN 2006
RICHMOND         74 IN 2015                 78 IN 2011
LIVERMORE        78 IN 1917                 78 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         76 IN 1963                 75 IN 1987
GILROY           76 IN 2011                 78 IN 1963

MONTEREY         85 IN 1954                 81 IN 1954
SANTA CRUZ       85 IN 1954                 78 IN 1954
SALINAS          82 IN 1987                 83 IN 2006
SALINAS AIPORT   84 IN 1954                 83 IN 1954
KING CITY        85 IN 1954                 84 IN 2006


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP/KENNEDY
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: R_WALBRUN


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 051130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN FREE UNTIL FRIDAY.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG




000
FXUS66 KEKA 051130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS TODAY WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT REACHES THE COAST. RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. (AND EVEN LESS
FARTHER INLAND). SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH BUT AGAIN...
GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF ONLY AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND LIKELY WELL ABOVE 5000 FT. ON THE HEELS OF
THE FRONT IS SOME RAPID RIDGING ALOFT THUS LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE STRONG AND
MAY LAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WEAKLY
OFFSHORE SO COASTAL WEATHER SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION RAIN FREE UNTIL FRIDAY.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&
.AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS HAD IMPACTED AIRFIELDS ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE
CEILINGS WILL ERODE BY LATER THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR
AT KCEC AND KACV WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER VFR DAY IN STORE. KML


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD SUFFICE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
GENERALLY MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SEA STATE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NEW SWELL WILL CAUSE THE SEA STATE TO BUILD
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 051120
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this
evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at
least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge
axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light
winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning
mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant
rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely
today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the
coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening.
Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this
system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer
temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is
expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold
together well enough to bring a little light rain across western
Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday
bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to
about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected
on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west
coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be
the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record
values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and
inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and
GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and
primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA
and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus
a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being
the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still
possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to
20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees
above normal by Fri.

N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period
and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential
for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return.

Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri
lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have
to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial
system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending
Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip
chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures
will be trending cooler.   JHM
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite.
Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence
create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast
VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central
Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving
to VFR after 18z-20z.

Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain
across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from
KMYV Swd Sat morning.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 051120
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this
evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at
least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge
axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light
winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning
mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant
rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely
today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the
coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening.
Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this
system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer
temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is
expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold
together well enough to bring a little light rain across western
Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday
bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to
about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected
on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west
coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be
the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record
values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and
inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and
GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and
primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA
and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus
a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being
the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still
possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to
20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees
above normal by Fri.

N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period
and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential
for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return.

Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri
lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have
to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial
system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending
Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip
chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures
will be trending cooler.   JHM
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite.
Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence
create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast
VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central
Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving
to VFR after 18z-20z.

Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain
across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from
KMYV Swd Sat morning.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 051120
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A little light rain across the northwest corner of the state this
evening...otherwise dry and warm conditions expected through at
least the middle of next week. Daytime highs well above normal
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies over the CWA this morning with an upper level ridge
axis now over the west coast. Clear skies and relatively light
winds have allowed light fog to form in the valley this morning
mainly in the San Joaquin valley. With lack of significant
rainfall the last few days...widespread dense fog is not likely
today. The tail end of a weak frontal band now approaching the
coast is expected to drag across the north state this evening.
Although cloud cover will increase today in advance of this
system...a warmer airmass will allow for a little warmer
temperatures this afternoon compared to Thursday. The front is
expected to weaken as it moves inland this evening but may hold
together well enough to bring a little light rain across western
Shasta and Tehama counties. Upper ridge rebuilds on Saturday
bringing return to fair skies with daytime temperatures warming to
about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Even more warming is expected
on Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge amplifies over the west
coast. Both Sunday and Monday will see daytime highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s in the central valley or from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for early February. At this time...Monday looks to be
the warmest day with daytime highs pushing up close to record
values especially in the northern San Joaquin valley.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

The axis of the West Coast ridge is forecast to have shifted Ewd and
inland from B.C. into the Great Basin during the EFP. The NAEFS and
GEFS shift the 30+ year return interval in mid-level heights and
primarily in 700-850 mbs temps Ewd and then SEwd away from our CWA
and gradually return the intervals to normal through next week. Thus
a gradual cooling trend is expected through the EFP with Tue being
the warmest day in the EFP period...with some record max temps still
possible at SAC and SCK. Max temp anomalies will drop from 10 to
20 degrees above normal in our CWA on Tue to just a few degrees
above normal by Fri.

N to NEly pressure gradients will gradually relax during the period
and Nly/katabatic winds will transition to Sly...and the potential
for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA will return.

Model differences near the end of the EFP especially late Thu/Fri
lower confidence in timing and any precip chances for our CWA. Have
to believe the strength of the ridge will prevail with an initial
system trying to break it down on Thu. Models may also be trending
Fri`s system farther N with our CWA on the Srn fringe of any precip
chances...which now appear N of I-80. In the least...temperatures
will be trending cooler.   JHM
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis will be shifting Ewd over Norcal today and tonite.
Clear skies...light winds and high humidity under strong subsidence
create ideal conditions for radiation fog this morning. HRRR forecast
VSBY suggests IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are possible in the Central
Vly from KMOD to as far N as KMYV...KOVE...KCIC. Conditions improving
to VFR after 18z-20z.

Weak wx system encountering ridge axis will spread some light rain
across the Nrn mtns tonite...with patchy FG possible again from
KMYV Swd Sat morning.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051115
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS SOCAL FROM
THE NORTH...ACROSS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH
-12.0 MB SAN-TPH AND -2.6 MB SAN-TRM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS 40-50
MPH...AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE 57 MPH AT
FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA MTNS.

THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUE AS STRONG
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HIGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN PERSIST. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY DIURNALLY...BEING
AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS AS ONSHORE THERMAL
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDIEST DAY COULD BE MONDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN
THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUE
AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD PEAKING ON TUE WITH
INLAND TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR NEXT WED THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.

&&

.AVIATION...
051000Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH SAT MORNING. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING
NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF
WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 051115
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS SOCAL FROM
THE NORTH...ACROSS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH
-12.0 MB SAN-TPH AND -2.6 MB SAN-TRM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS 40-50
MPH...AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE 57 MPH AT
FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA MTNS.

THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUE AS STRONG
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HIGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN PERSIST. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY DIURNALLY...BEING
AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS AS ONSHORE THERMAL
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDIEST DAY COULD BE MONDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN
THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUE
AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD PEAKING ON TUE WITH
INLAND TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR NEXT WED THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.

&&

.AVIATION...
051000Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH SAT MORNING. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING
NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF
WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 051115
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
315 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNING...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS SOCAL FROM
THE NORTH...ACROSS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH
-12.0 MB SAN-TPH AND -2.6 MB SAN-TRM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS 40-50
MPH...AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE 57 MPH AT
FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA MTNS.

THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUE AS STRONG
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HIGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN PERSIST. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY DIURNALLY...BEING
AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS AS ONSHORE THERMAL
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDIEST DAY COULD BE MONDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN
THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WEAKEN AFTER TUE
AS THE GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD PEAKING ON TUE WITH
INLAND TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS.

A LITTLE COOLER FOR NEXT WED THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NW.

&&

.AVIATION...
051000Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL DEVELOP BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH SAT MORNING. AREAS OF
MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING
NEAR KONT AND KSNA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK AT 9 FT/18
SEC THIS MORNING. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET WITH SETS TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL
MAR. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWELL AND SURF
WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS




000
FXUS65 KREV 051026
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 AM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DESPITE THE CONTINUED MELTING OF SNOW YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLING AFTER SUNSET, WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH FOG DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT AT THE MORE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS TRUCKEE
AIRPORT AND THE BOGARD WEB CAMERA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. WHILE
WE CAN`T FULLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV THIS MORNING, THE COVERAGE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED.

TEMPERATURES IN MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS ROSE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH RENO`S HIGH JUMPING BY 10 DEGREES. AS A RESULT
OF YESTERDAY`S WARMING EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS DESPITE LIGHT WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER, WE WILL KEEP A SLOW WARMING TREND
GOING FOR TODAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR HIGHWAY 95 AND ALTERNATE 95 FROM
FERNLEY-FALLON SOUTHWARD SHOULD STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO-CARSON
REGION AND EVEN THE TAHOE BASIN UNTIL THEIR SNOW IS LARGELY GONE.

FOR TONIGHT, WE REMOVED THE REMAINING MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES TRACKED THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WITH MOISTURE TOO LIMITED EVEN FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY. THERE MAY
BE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-80 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWING
UP ON THE LATEST GFS, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WARMING TREND WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS BETWEEN WESTERN
NV VALLEYS AND THE TAHOE/SIERRA VALLEYS (GENERALLY AROUND 50
DEGREES). HIGHS IN THE SIERRA WILL ALSO PUSH WELL ABOVE FREEZING,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING AND SOFTENING OF THE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK, WITH SOME RUNOFF INTO THE MAIN LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS OF EASTERN CA. MJD


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
WHILE WEAK INVERSIONS WILL BE PRESENT, THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF WARMING EACH DAY. THIS WILL
BRING VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND OF FEB 13/14, FINALLY ALLOWING
FOR STORM ENERGY TO REACH THE WEST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO
THE NORTH, ALONG THE OREGON BORDER, BRINGING AN INCREASE TO MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR SUNDAY.

AFTER THIS MORNING, THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THE MARTIS VALLEY (KTRK), AND SIERRA VALLEY. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KPSR 050917
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUTTING ARIZONA UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR IMAGERY DEPICTED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
THE LOW LEVELS WERE DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
FOR TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING SUNNY
DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS IN PLACE EACH DAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS TODAY RISING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER DESERT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A 585DM CENTER MOVING INLAND INTO NEVADA BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE DATA CALLS FOR H5 HEIGHTS AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLIMB TO VALUES
ABOVE THAT SEEN IN THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AND AS SUCH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WARMER SERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS CLIMB...AT A MINIMUM...TO
READINGS 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE 585DM H5 HIGH CENTER TRANSLATES
INLAND AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH WE WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW RECORDS FOR NOW. DESPITE THIS...WE DID RAISE HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES OR SO WITH THE WARMER DESERTS FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
WE MAY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
A VERY SLIGHT FALLOFF IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GONNA
GET WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...AND
NORTHERLY AT KBLH. WINDS SPEEDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
PHX AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZES TO KBLH TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RELAX. WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6KTS AT KIPL...MAINLY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050638
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 050638
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 050638
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 050638
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 050638
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAVE
REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AROUND 11 TO 13 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF POINT ARENA AND POINT REYES...AND 13 TO 15 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF HALF MOON BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. SWELL PERIOD
IS IN THE 17 TO 18 SECONDS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH
THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE BREAK.
ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 7 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 050551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
951 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:45 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 2:22 PM PST THURSDAY...AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE SURF AT MANY LOCAL BEACHES AND DEEP
WATER BREAKS. LONG LULLS BETWEEN WAVE SETS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WAVES PROVIDING BEACH VISITORS A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY DRAWING
THEM CLOSER TO THE WATERS EDGE RAISING THE RISK OF THEM BEING
WASHED INTO THE SEA BY A WAVE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FRIDAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS.
ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE
BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PST THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS
ENERGETIC SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR SHORE REEFS AND SAND
BARS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 050537
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS RAMPED UP TO 12.6 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH
THIS EVENING...STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH AT
SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...50 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 41 MPH AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS
IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
A 1039 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER NEVADA SO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.

THE MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING AS MUCH OF A DECREASE IN THE WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFIES
THE RIDGE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. A LOW END WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE PROPS
UP OVER THE WEST. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS DOUBLE
DIGIT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND 20-30 KT NORTHEAST 850 MB WINDS WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. IT WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PEAK HEATING
WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH AT
A FEW SITES. THE RECORD HIGH OF 77 ON TUESDAY AT SAN DIEGO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS WITHIN REACH.  TUESDAYS HIGH WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND LOWER
DESERT ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN THE HIGH DESERTS AND ON
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FROM LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION... 050400Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
DEVELOP BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH FRI. AREAS
OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK
AT 9 FT/18 SEC TONIGHT...AND GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7
FEET...IS EXPECTED ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH
AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 050537
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS RAMPED UP TO 12.6 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH
THIS EVENING...STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH AT
SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...50 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 41 MPH AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS
IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
A 1039 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER NEVADA SO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.

THE MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING AS MUCH OF A DECREASE IN THE WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFIES
THE RIDGE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. A LOW END WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE PROPS
UP OVER THE WEST. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS DOUBLE
DIGIT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND 20-30 KT NORTHEAST 850 MB WINDS WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. IT WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PEAK HEATING
WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH AT
A FEW SITES. THE RECORD HIGH OF 77 ON TUESDAY AT SAN DIEGO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS WITHIN REACH.  TUESDAYS HIGH WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND LOWER
DESERT ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN THE HIGH DESERTS AND ON
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FROM LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION... 050400Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
DEVELOP BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH FRI. AREAS
OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK
AT 9 FT/18 SEC TONIGHT...AND GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7
FEET...IS EXPECTED ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH
AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 050537
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLING WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS RAMPED UP TO 12.6 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH
THIS EVENING...STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH AT
SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...50 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK IN THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 41 MPH AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS
IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
A 1039 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER NEVADA SO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.

THE MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING AS MUCH OF A DECREASE IN THE WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DEAMPLIFIES
THE RIDGE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. A LOW END WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE PROPS
UP OVER THE WEST. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS DOUBLE
DIGIT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND 20-30 KT NORTHEAST 850 MB WINDS WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. IT WILL BE WARMER STILL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PEAK HEATING
WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH AT
A FEW SITES. THE RECORD HIGH OF 77 ON TUESDAY AT SAN DIEGO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS WITHIN REACH.  TUESDAYS HIGH WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND LOWER
DESERT ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN THE HIGH DESERTS AND ON
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW COOLING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FROM LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION... 050400Z...NE-E SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT WILL
DEVELOP BELOW PASSES/CANYONS/COASTAL MTN SLOPES THROUGH FRI. AREAS
OF MOD UDDFS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER/W OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRI
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 800 PM...A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 290 DEGREES WILL PEAK
AT 9 FT/18 SEC TONIGHT...AND GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7
FEET...IS EXPECTED ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH
AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
SATURDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT




000
FXUS65 KPSR 050535 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANTHER VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN-
EARNEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
THIS HOUR ARE ONCE AGAIN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT VIRTUALLY ALL
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE PHX URBAN CORE REMAINING
IN THE LOW 40S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CUT DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...FROM WA/OR SOUTHEAST TO CO/NM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BUT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...CUTTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA
BUT MOSTLY THROUGH UT AND CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF WESTERN AZ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE WEEKEND.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S...OR ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...AND
NORTHERLY AT KBLH. WINDS SPEEDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
PHX AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZES TO KBLH TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RELAX. WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6KTS AT KIPL...MAINLY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH



000
FXUS65 KPSR 050535 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANTHER VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN-
EARNEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
THIS HOUR ARE ONCE AGAIN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT VIRTUALLY ALL
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE PHX URBAN CORE REMAINING
IN THE LOW 40S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CUT DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...FROM WA/OR SOUTHEAST TO CO/NM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BUT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...CUTTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA
BUT MOSTLY THROUGH UT AND CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF WESTERN AZ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE WEEKEND.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S...OR ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...AND
NORTHERLY AT KBLH. WINDS SPEEDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
PHX AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZES TO KBLH TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RELAX. WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6KTS AT KIPL...MAINLY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS65 KPSR 050535 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANTHER VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN-
EARNEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
THIS HOUR ARE ONCE AGAIN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT VIRTUALLY ALL
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE PHX URBAN CORE REMAINING
IN THE LOW 40S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CUT DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...FROM WA/OR SOUTHEAST TO CO/NM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BUT
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...CUTTING ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA
BUT MOSTLY THROUGH UT AND CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF WESTERN AZ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE WEEKEND.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S...OR ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...AND
NORTHERLY AT KBLH. WINDS SPEEDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
PHX AREA TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FROM MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZES TO KBLH TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RELAX. WINDS
TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6KTS AT KIPL...MAINLY
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050533 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0530Z.

AT 05Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE PD EXCEPT SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY FROM 10Z-17Z. SOME MDT TO STG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED FROM 08Z-21Z...
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND VLY AREAS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES. SOME MDT
UDDF ARE XPCTD IN L.A./VTU COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS 8 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 050524
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
924 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WARM AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THIS EVENING AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWS A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEVADA CURRENTLY AND KLAX-
KTPH SURFACE PRESSURE ARE TRENDING STRONGLY OFFSHORE TO -13 MB. KLAX-
KDAG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE APPROACHING -6 MB THIS EVENING.
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIALIZING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LESS
IDEALLY...A WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST
AND WINDS WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE PACKAGE SLIGHTLY. FUTURE SHIFTS
COULD ADD LOS ANGELES COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS
OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST BETWEEN MALIBU AND THE HOLLYWOOD
HILLS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED AS MORE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WARM
UP THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DROP OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND KNOCKS
DOWN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND UPPER SUPPORT A SKOSH. DEPENDING ON
HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET TOMORROW THE SAT DECREASE MAY STILL KEEP
WINDS IN MANY AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY AND WILL EVALUATE THAT
FRIDAY AND DECIDE IF THOSE NEED EXTENDING.

WINDS POP UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW END ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH 70S BY SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S BY SUN.

LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BUMP UP A LITTLE AGAIN MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS. GRADIENTS LIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY BUT LOW LVL TEMPS PEAK WITH 950MB TEMPS AROUND 24C. SO
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADIENTS TURN BACK ONSHORE. ON THU THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS ONLY SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND NO PRECIP. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 10Z AND
18Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN NEAR SHORE VENTURA AND SANTA
MONICA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHOPPY SEAS COULD OCCUR AT EAST
FACING HARBOR FRIDAY SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSTO 050512
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
912 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the region with mostly clear skies and light
winds tonight. Temperatures will be cooling off into the 30s for
the valley to the teens and 20s for mountain valleys. Some
patches of fog may form in the morning hours from around
Sacramento southward.

The winds will be lighter for Friday as a system moves
through to the north but may bring a few light showers Friday
evening to Western Shasta County. A start of a strong ridge of
high pressure will be building over the region for Saturday to
bring the region warmer than normal temperatures.

Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday with some temperatures
warming into the lower to mid 70s over the northern half of the
Sacramento Valley. Some temperatures may come within a few degrees
of record highs for this time of year. It should be very nice
BBQ weather for those watching that little game that is being
played to our west on Sunday.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Large scale pattern will be dominated by a highly amplified West
Coast ridge during the EFP. NAEFS and GEFS suggest a 30+ year return
interval in mid-level heights along the coast and primarily in 700-
850 mbs temps. Strong subsidence and a lot of warm air aloft will
result in strong subsidence/temperature inversions. Thus...the
weather pattern is setting up for unseasonably warm wx with max
temps some 10-15, if not 20 degrees, above normal with the potential
for record max temps for early Feb. The pattern is reminiscent of Feb
2006/2011. Most of the record temps in the Valley are in the 70s to
low 80s during the period.

Building high pressure will also result in surface pressure rises to the
NE of our CWA. Relatively strong offshore flow and N-NEly flow will also
result in katabatic winds and adiabatic warming effects which could help
boost max temps into record territory on Mon 2/8 up/down the Valley. This
also coincides with the strongest anomalies on Mon which then shift Ewd
into NV on Tue with the ridge axis. Nly/katabatic winds will then
transition to Sly and more than likely limit record max possibilities to
the Srn portion of the Valley where the max temps are lower than in the N.
The Nly winds will preclude fog formation early in the period...with the
potential for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA during the latter
half of the period.

Model differences on Thu lower confidence in precip chances for the NWrn
portion of our CWA. Would have to believe the strength of the ridge
will prevail with an initial system trying to break it down. In the
least...temperatures will be trending cooler.   JHM


&&

.AVIATION...

NWly flow alf as upr rdg movs ovhd. VFR conds for Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc areas MVFR with lcl IFR/LIFR poss in Cntrl Vly S of
KOVE in BR/FG btwn 08z-20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 050512
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
912 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the region with mostly clear skies and light
winds tonight. Temperatures will be cooling off into the 30s for
the valley to the teens and 20s for mountain valleys. Some
patches of fog may form in the morning hours from around
Sacramento southward.

The winds will be lighter for Friday as a system moves
through to the north but may bring a few light showers Friday
evening to Western Shasta County. A start of a strong ridge of
high pressure will be building over the region for Saturday to
bring the region warmer than normal temperatures.

Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday with some temperatures
warming into the lower to mid 70s over the northern half of the
Sacramento Valley. Some temperatures may come within a few degrees
of record highs for this time of year. It should be very nice
BBQ weather for those watching that little game that is being
played to our west on Sunday.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Large scale pattern will be dominated by a highly amplified West
Coast ridge during the EFP. NAEFS and GEFS suggest a 30+ year return
interval in mid-level heights along the coast and primarily in 700-
850 mbs temps. Strong subsidence and a lot of warm air aloft will
result in strong subsidence/temperature inversions. Thus...the
weather pattern is setting up for unseasonably warm wx with max
temps some 10-15, if not 20 degrees, above normal with the potential
for record max temps for early Feb. The pattern is reminiscent of Feb
2006/2011. Most of the record temps in the Valley are in the 70s to
low 80s during the period.

Building high pressure will also result in surface pressure rises to the
NE of our CWA. Relatively strong offshore flow and N-NEly flow will also
result in katabatic winds and adiabatic warming effects which could help
boost max temps into record territory on Mon 2/8 up/down the Valley. This
also coincides with the strongest anomalies on Mon which then shift Ewd
into NV on Tue with the ridge axis. Nly/katabatic winds will then
transition to Sly and more than likely limit record max possibilities to
the Srn portion of the Valley where the max temps are lower than in the N.
The Nly winds will preclude fog formation early in the period...with the
potential for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA during the latter
half of the period.

Model differences on Thu lower confidence in precip chances for the NWrn
portion of our CWA. Would have to believe the strength of the ridge
will prevail with an initial system trying to break it down. In the
least...temperatures will be trending cooler.   JHM


&&

.AVIATION...

NWly flow alf as upr rdg movs ovhd. VFR conds for Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc areas MVFR with lcl IFR/LIFR poss in Cntrl Vly S of
KOVE in BR/FG btwn 08z-20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 050512
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
912 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the region with mostly clear skies and light
winds tonight. Temperatures will be cooling off into the 30s for
the valley to the teens and 20s for mountain valleys. Some
patches of fog may form in the morning hours from around
Sacramento southward.

The winds will be lighter for Friday as a system moves
through to the north but may bring a few light showers Friday
evening to Western Shasta County. A start of a strong ridge of
high pressure will be building over the region for Saturday to
bring the region warmer than normal temperatures.

Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday with some temperatures
warming into the lower to mid 70s over the northern half of the
Sacramento Valley. Some temperatures may come within a few degrees
of record highs for this time of year. It should be very nice
BBQ weather for those watching that little game that is being
played to our west on Sunday.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Large scale pattern will be dominated by a highly amplified West
Coast ridge during the EFP. NAEFS and GEFS suggest a 30+ year return
interval in mid-level heights along the coast and primarily in 700-
850 mbs temps. Strong subsidence and a lot of warm air aloft will
result in strong subsidence/temperature inversions. Thus...the
weather pattern is setting up for unseasonably warm wx with max
temps some 10-15, if not 20 degrees, above normal with the potential
for record max temps for early Feb. The pattern is reminiscent of Feb
2006/2011. Most of the record temps in the Valley are in the 70s to
low 80s during the period.

Building high pressure will also result in surface pressure rises to the
NE of our CWA. Relatively strong offshore flow and N-NEly flow will also
result in katabatic winds and adiabatic warming effects which could help
boost max temps into record territory on Mon 2/8 up/down the Valley. This
also coincides with the strongest anomalies on Mon which then shift Ewd
into NV on Tue with the ridge axis. Nly/katabatic winds will then
transition to Sly and more than likely limit record max possibilities to
the Srn portion of the Valley where the max temps are lower than in the N.
The Nly winds will preclude fog formation early in the period...with the
potential for patchy fog in the Srn portion of the CWA during the latter
half of the period.

Model differences on Thu lower confidence in precip chances for the NWrn
portion of our CWA. Would have to believe the strength of the ridge
will prevail with an initial system trying to break it down. In the
least...temperatures will be trending cooler.   JHM


&&

.AVIATION...

NWly flow alf as upr rdg movs ovhd. VFR conds for Intr NorCal nxt
24 hrs exc areas MVFR with lcl IFR/LIFR poss in Cntrl Vly S of
KOVE in BR/FG btwn 08z-20z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050505
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
THE EAST AND NORTH BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 2:22 PM PST THURSDAY...AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE SURF AT MANY LOCAL BEACHES AND DEEP
WATER BREAKS. LONG LULLS BETWEEN WAVE SETS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WAVES PROVIDING BEACH VISITORS A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY DRAWING
THEM CLOSER TO THE WATERS EDGE RAISING THE RISK OF THEM BEING
WASHED INTO THE SEA BY A WAVE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FRIDAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS.
ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE
BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PST THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS
ENERGETIC SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR SHORE REEFS AND SAND
BARS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 050505
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
THE EAST AND NORTH BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 2:22 PM PST THURSDAY...AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE SURF AT MANY LOCAL BEACHES AND DEEP
WATER BREAKS. LONG LULLS BETWEEN WAVE SETS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WAVES PROVIDING BEACH VISITORS A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY DRAWING
THEM CLOSER TO THE WATERS EDGE RAISING THE RISK OF THEM BEING
WASHED INTO THE SEA BY A WAVE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FRIDAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS.
ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE
BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PST THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS
ENERGETIC SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR SHORE REEFS AND SAND
BARS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 050505
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
905 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REGION-
WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PST THURSDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S AT THIS HOUR AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY HIGHS AS A RESULT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE CURRENT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE WARMEST INLAND LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER SINCE IT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THE INCREASED AIR
TRAFFIC ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN VISITORS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH NOTING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO AN ENERGETIC SEA STATE. REMEMBER, NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN MID
TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING TO
THE NORTH BAY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND
THE EAST AND NORTH BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AROUND 3 PM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 2:22 PM PST THURSDAY...AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE SURF AT MANY LOCAL BEACHES AND DEEP
WATER BREAKS. LONG LULLS BETWEEN WAVE SETS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WAVES PROVIDING BEACH VISITORS A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY DRAWING
THEM CLOSER TO THE WATERS EDGE RAISING THE RISK OF THEM BEING
WASHED INTO THE SEA BY A WAVE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FRIDAY TO 6 TO 9 FEET WITH DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS.
ALTHOUGH THESE WILL BE SMALLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SHORE
BREAK. ADDITIONALLY...WATER TEMPERATURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 50S...SO THOSE VENTURING INTO THE WATER WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PST THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION A LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS
ENERGETIC SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR SHORE REEFS AND SAND
BARS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: BRENCHLEY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



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