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000
FXUS66 KMTR 030028
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
528 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:21 PM PDT SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS LOCATED 600 MILES WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MUCH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WELL EAST OF THE
LOW CENTER HAS HELPED ERODE THE COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS TODAY.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE WHILE SW WINDS
CONTINUE ALOFT. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE
SLOWER THAN LAST EVENING`S REDEVELOPMENT AS MODEST LEVELS OF
MIXING CONTINUE AT THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE TOP OF THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AND THE LOWER LEVEL COOLER/DRIER AIR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS
FORECAST TIL 04Z. COORD WITH CWSU OAKLAND AND AGREE STRATUS LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL VERY LATE...00Z KSFO TAF ADVERTISES TEMPO
MVFR CIG 09Z-13Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR TIL 18Z MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY TEMPO IFR CIGS 06Z-10Z. IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. CLEARING RETURNS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 030028
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
528 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:21 PM PDT SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS LOCATED 600 MILES WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MUCH DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WELL EAST OF THE
LOW CENTER HAS HELPED ERODE THE COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS TODAY.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE WHILE SW WINDS
CONTINUE ALOFT. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE
SLOWER THAN LAST EVENING`S REDEVELOPMENT AS MODEST LEVELS OF
MIXING CONTINUE AT THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE TOP OF THE MARINE
LAYER INVERSION AND THE LOWER LEVEL COOLER/DRIER AIR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS
FORECAST TIL 04Z. COORD WITH CWSU OAKLAND AND AGREE STRATUS LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL VERY LATE...00Z KSFO TAF ADVERTISES TEMPO
MVFR CIG 09Z-13Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR TIL 18Z MONDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY TEMPO IFR CIGS 06Z-10Z. IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. CLEARING RETURNS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 022325 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2320Z...

MARINE LAYER AROUND LAX AT 2300Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25.2 DEGREES C.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. EXPECTING HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
COASTAL SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KSBA AFTER 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/- 1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAFS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS COULD BE ONLY MVFR AFTER 07Z THIS EVE. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. SCOUT OUT TIMES SHOULD BE
+/-1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TAF THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT...LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT NO CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT 24
HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022325 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2320Z...

MARINE LAYER AROUND LAX AT 2300Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25.2 DEGREES C.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. EXPECTING HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
COASTAL SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KSBA AFTER 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/- 1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAFS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS COULD BE ONLY MVFR AFTER 07Z THIS EVE. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. SCOUT OUT TIMES SHOULD BE
+/-1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TAF THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT...LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT NO CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT 24
HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022325 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2320Z...

MARINE LAYER AROUND LAX AT 2300Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25.2 DEGREES C.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. EXPECTING HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
COASTAL SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KSBA AFTER 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/- 1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAFS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS COULD BE ONLY MVFR AFTER 07Z THIS EVE. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. SCOUT OUT TIMES SHOULD BE
+/-1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TAF THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT...LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT NO CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT 24
HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022325 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2320Z...

MARINE LAYER AROUND LAX AT 2300Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25.2 DEGREES C.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH STRATUS COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG
COAST AND VALLEY SITES. EXPECTING HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
COASTAL SITES. TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS FOR DEVELOPMENT. 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KSBA AFTER 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. SCOUR OUT TIMES SHOULD BE +/- 1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAFS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS COULD BE ONLY MVFR AFTER 07Z THIS EVE. CIGS SHOULD BE MVFR
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST. SCOUT OUT TIMES SHOULD BE
+/-1 HOUR FROM 00Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TAF THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT...LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT NO CIGS WILL OCCUR AFTER 10Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT 24
HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 022252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE
COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT DIFFERING RESULTS IN THE REAL
WORLD VERSUS THE MODEL WORLD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT REMAINING LOW, LEFT MOST
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE VARIOUS
FIELDS. DETAILS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE READ IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH STORMS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
CONSIDERING MODELS ARE GENERALLY POOR AT DETERMINING THE TRACK OF
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF STORMS DO FIRE THERE
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO THE CURRENT WILDFIRE
SUPPRESSION WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WHICH
COULD PUSH FAR INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PUSH MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF TRINITY COUNTY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT IN GENERAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS
OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND AND LIKELY REACH UKI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MANY WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. INTERIOR DEL NORTE...INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES CAUSED BY THE SMOKE. RPA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE GFS
INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203, 204, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 283. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
EVEN THOUGH RADAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 2230Z, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY GENERATING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS, WHICH IS
HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LIMIT THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE SMOKE HAS
CLEARED ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND PARTS OF HUMBOLDT,
TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS BEING
CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN
LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACT AS POINTS TO HELP DEVELOP
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS (DUE TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCAL LIFT). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ZONES
203, 204, AND 283 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
POORLY, SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW. INTERIOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 022252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE
COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT DIFFERING RESULTS IN THE REAL
WORLD VERSUS THE MODEL WORLD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT REMAINING LOW, LEFT MOST
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE VARIOUS
FIELDS. DETAILS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE READ IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH STORMS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
CONSIDERING MODELS ARE GENERALLY POOR AT DETERMINING THE TRACK OF
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF STORMS DO FIRE THERE
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO THE CURRENT WILDFIRE
SUPPRESSION WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WHICH
COULD PUSH FAR INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PUSH MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF TRINITY COUNTY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT IN GENERAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS
OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND AND LIKELY REACH UKI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MANY WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. INTERIOR DEL NORTE...INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES CAUSED BY THE SMOKE. RPA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE GFS
INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203, 204, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 283. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
EVEN THOUGH RADAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 2230Z, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY GENERATING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS, WHICH IS
HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LIMIT THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE SMOKE HAS
CLEARED ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND PARTS OF HUMBOLDT,
TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS BEING
CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN
LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACT AS POINTS TO HELP DEVELOP
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS (DUE TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCAL LIFT). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ZONES
203, 204, AND 283 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
POORLY, SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW. INTERIOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 022252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE
COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT DIFFERING RESULTS IN THE REAL
WORLD VERSUS THE MODEL WORLD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT REMAINING LOW, LEFT MOST
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE VARIOUS
FIELDS. DETAILS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE READ IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH STORMS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
CONSIDERING MODELS ARE GENERALLY POOR AT DETERMINING THE TRACK OF
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF STORMS DO FIRE THERE
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO THE CURRENT WILDFIRE
SUPPRESSION WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WHICH
COULD PUSH FAR INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PUSH MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF TRINITY COUNTY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT IN GENERAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS
OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND AND LIKELY REACH UKI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MANY WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. INTERIOR DEL NORTE...INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES CAUSED BY THE SMOKE. RPA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE GFS
INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203, 204, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 283. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
EVEN THOUGH RADAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 2230Z, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY GENERATING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS, WHICH IS
HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LIMIT THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE SMOKE HAS
CLEARED ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND PARTS OF HUMBOLDT,
TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS BEING
CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN
LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACT AS POINTS TO HELP DEVELOP
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS (DUE TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCAL LIFT). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ZONES
203, 204, AND 283 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
POORLY, SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW. INTERIOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 022252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE
COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT DIFFERING RESULTS IN THE REAL
WORLD VERSUS THE MODEL WORLD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT REMAINING LOW, LEFT MOST
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE VARIOUS
FIELDS. DETAILS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE READ IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH STORMS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
CONSIDERING MODELS ARE GENERALLY POOR AT DETERMINING THE TRACK OF
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF STORMS DO FIRE THERE
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO THE CURRENT WILDFIRE
SUPPRESSION WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WHICH
COULD PUSH FAR INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PUSH MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF TRINITY COUNTY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT IN GENERAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS
OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND AND LIKELY REACH UKI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MANY WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. INTERIOR DEL NORTE...INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES CAUSED BY THE SMOKE. RPA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE GFS
INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203, 204, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 283. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
EVEN THOUGH RADAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 2230Z, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY GENERATING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS, WHICH IS
HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LIMIT THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE SMOKE HAS
CLEARED ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND PARTS OF HUMBOLDT,
TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS BEING
CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN
LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACT AS POINTS TO HELP DEVELOP
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS (DUE TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCAL LIFT). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ZONES
203, 204, AND 283 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
POORLY, SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW. INTERIOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 022252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE
COAST WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND THE SUBSEQUENT DIFFERING RESULTS IN THE REAL
WORLD VERSUS THE MODEL WORLD CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTPUT REMAINING LOW, LEFT MOST
OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE VARIOUS
FIELDS. DETAILS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE READ IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH WITH STORMS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
CONSIDERING MODELS ARE GENERALLY POOR AT DETERMINING THE TRACK OF
CLOSED LOWS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF STORMS DO FIRE THERE
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IMPACTS TO THE CURRENT WILDFIRE
SUPPRESSION WORK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WHICH
COULD PUSH FAR INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PUSH MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF TRINITY COUNTY AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...BUT IN GENERAL LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS
OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARBY...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THE DEEPER MARINE
LAYER WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INLAND AND LIKELY REACH UKI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MANY WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SMOKE
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. INTERIOR DEL NORTE...INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT...AND TRINITY COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES CAUSED BY THE SMOKE. RPA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE GFS
INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203, 204, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 283. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
EVEN THOUGH RADAR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 2230Z, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY GENERATING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS, WHICH IS
HELPING TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND LIMIT THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE SMOKE HAS
CLEARED ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND PARTS OF HUMBOLDT,
TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS BEING
CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS IN
LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ACT AS POINTS TO HELP DEVELOP
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS (DUE TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCAL LIFT). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ZONES
203, 204, AND 283 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
POORLY, SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW. INTERIOR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 022155
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND AND PUSHING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HOVERED BETWEEN 2000 AND
2500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW HUNDRED
FEET DEEPER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS DEEPER MARINE LAYER HAD A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SAN JOAQIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
AUGUST...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S.

OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY REMAINS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CREST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN.

THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BUILD NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.

A NEARLY STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND
ARRIVE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST...MAINLY FROM MADERA COUNTY NORTHWARD...MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SIERRA
CREST GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. NCEPS GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE IS STILL SHOWING LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THAT TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. EITHER
WAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...AS WE FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z MON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY AUGUST 3 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
MADERA COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953
KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956

KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 022155
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND AND PUSHING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HOVERED BETWEEN 2000 AND
2500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW HUNDRED
FEET DEEPER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS DEEPER MARINE LAYER HAD A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SAN JOAQIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
AUGUST...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S.

OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY REMAINS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CREST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN.

THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BUILD NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.

A NEARLY STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND
ARRIVE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST...MAINLY FROM MADERA COUNTY NORTHWARD...MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SIERRA
CREST GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. NCEPS GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE IS STILL SHOWING LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THAT TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. EITHER
WAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...AS WE FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z MON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY AUGUST 3 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
MADERA COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953
KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956

KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 022155
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND AND PUSHING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST. THE MARINE LAYER HOVERED BETWEEN 2000 AND
2500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW HUNDRED
FEET DEEPER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS DEEPER MARINE LAYER HAD A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SAN JOAQIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
AUGUST...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S.

OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY REMAINS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CREST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN.

THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BUILD NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK.

A NEARLY STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND
ARRIVE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST...MAINLY FROM MADERA COUNTY NORTHWARD...MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SIERRA
CREST GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. NCEPS GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE IS STILL SHOWING LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THAT TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER THE NAEFS PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. EITHER
WAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...AS WE FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z MON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY AUGUST 3 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
MADERA COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953
KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956

KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 022134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIG SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 022134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIG SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 022129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL... SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THROUGH 04Z MON...SCT CU CLDS BASED
NEAR 12 THSD AGL. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FROM 04Z MON THROUGH 18Z
MON...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VRBL WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WEAK MONSOON PATTERN WHERE MOISTURE FROM MEXICO
WILL RETURN MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE GENERALLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 022118
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
218 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUBSIDES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CREST.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST THAT
MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREAS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY AND FROM PLUMAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. FURTHER
SOUTH THE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PUSH ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY TRY
TO GET GOING INTO NEVADA.

A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO KEEP INLAND
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT. A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY
DEEP MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

MODELS SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THURSDAY WITH
MINOR WARMING. LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CAL COAST
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT THEN LINGERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SWLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS
POSS THRU CARQ STRAIT AND WRN DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 022118
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
218 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUBSIDES. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CREST.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST THAT
MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREAS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY AND FROM PLUMAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. FURTHER
SOUTH THE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PUSH ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY TRY
TO GET GOING INTO NEVADA.

A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO KEEP INLAND
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT. A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY
DEEP MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRATUS ADVECTING INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

MODELS SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER INTERIOR NORCAL THURSDAY WITH
MINOR WARMING. LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CAL COAST
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT THEN LINGERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SWLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS
POSS THRU CARQ STRAIT AND WRN DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 022039
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
139 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

COASTAL STRATUS IS HANGING TOUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND A FEW MILES INLAND INCLUDING MUCH OF
SAN DIEGO CITY PROPER...MEANWHILE ALL OF COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY HAS
CLEARED OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO CONTINUE NEAR
THE SAN DIEGO BEACHES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WELL
INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD IN
THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS. TERRAIN DRIVEN MESO
BOUNDARIES NOTED ON VISIBLE LOOP ARE HELPING TO KICK THE CU FIELD
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS IN THOSE LOCATIONS ATTM...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CU FIELD FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE A BIT STRONGER ON THE LATEST RUNS WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AROUND 597 DM.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO
SWING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
DRAMATIC COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS LIKELY
SEEING A 10-20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER A FEW DAYS TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM AT THIS MOMENT ALTHOUGH WE MAY
NEED TO ADD A MENTION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IF ANY MOISTURE TAP CAN CONNECT WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH FEATURE. COASTAL STRATUS WILL LIKELY SURGE WELL INLAND
DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AS WELL WITH A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PERSIST BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS SOCAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
022030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC013-018 TOPS 020 RETURNING TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS BTWN 01-03Z...THEN MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT
AND LOWERING TO OVC010-015 TROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF 3-5SM BR. SKIES
CLEARING BACK TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS MONDAY BETWEEN 19-21Z.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 022030 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
131 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS LOW...WHICH IS PRETTY DRY...WILL DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD 140W AND IN ASSOCIATION ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
OF A BUMP UP IN HEIGHTS AHEAD OF IT OVER OUR AREA TO BRING A VERY
SLIGHT WARMUP THAT SHOULD PEAK AROUND MIDWEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...BUT ENOUGH
TO MAYBE BRING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN A BIT BY TUE NIGHT-WED MORN AND
KEEP STRATUS OUT OF SOME OF THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. SOME AREAS SOUTH WILL BE MORE AROUND NORMAL.

THE OTHER STORY WILL BE LOCAL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS FOR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO BE AS STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
LOCALIZED GUSTS IN THE 40`S THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE REFUGIO-GAVIOTA AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)... MODELS AGREE ON STARTING TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY FRIDAY
THEY`RE MORE IN SYNC. NO PRECIP WITH THIS LOW BUT IT WILL COOL AFTN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES STARTING THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST THEN INLAND
ON FRIDAY...THEN HOLDING STEADY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOULD CLEAR TO
THE BEACHES BY THE AFTERNOONS. THE LOW ZIPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY...SO HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE SHOULD AT LEAST WARM INLAND AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE
MID LEVEL DRY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY
03/07Z. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/02Z
AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE
INVERSION WITH A BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER
LITTLE MONDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE DIFFERENCE MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1877 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2825 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 007 BETWEEN 03/07-03/10Z AND CIGS 013 BETWEEN
03/10-03/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 010 AFTER 03/11Z

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 022030
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 022030
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 022030
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 022030
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 022030
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
130 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CLOUDY START TO
THE TODAY...MUCH OF THE BAY AREA CLEAR OUT...EVEN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE CLEARING TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING A
FEW COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BROAD
TROUGH REMAIN PARKED WEST OF 130W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW IS HELPING TO STREAM THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH THE
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...DAY
TO DAY CHANGE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL. NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S COAST AND 80S/LOW
-MID 90S INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. COASTAL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY BUT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...THE REASON FOR
THE COOL DOWN. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE BAY AREA. BETTER
CHANCE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THAT TIME PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND GUIDANCE IS NOT THE BEST...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...A BIG HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY GIVEN RECENT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THE STATE.
ESPECIALLY FROM A POSSIBLE CONVECTION STANDPOINT IMPACTING CURRENT
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 022022
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 022022
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 022022
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 022022
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
122 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SPARK OFF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS PWATS DOWN TO 1.36 INCHES AND THIS WILL
LOWER TO 0.75-1.00 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ENDING ANY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE DESERTS. THIS ALL HAPPENS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE DRYING PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX.
A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WITH HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES AT
MOST WILL BE KEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE
TO THE NATURE OF MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO
SHAPE UP BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE AND WIND FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021756
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021756
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021756
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021756
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY BURN-OFF OVER TERMINALS THIS MORNING...YET HOLDING ON
STRONG OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLEARING OVER THE KSFO APPROACH CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH
20Z. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING GIVEN THE
DEEP MARINE LAYER AND APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 1930Z. WEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUST AROUND 20KT AFTER 21Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF EARLY RETURN
OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CLEARING THROUGH 18Z...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO
KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CLEARING THROUGH 1830Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND 03Z...YET COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 00Z AT KMRY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF OF THE
BIG SUR COAST. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
SEAS WILL BE MIXED...NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: RGASS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021742 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
PROMOTE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WED)... LATEST PRIEPS SHOW MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS ABOUT 1700 FT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTH. OUR ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE TIMING OF THE COASTAL STRATUS CLEARING SO EXPECT THE
USUAL MORNING BURN OFF. A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING FAR INLAND
SECTIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
LOCALIZED SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST. GUSTS AT THE REFUGIO
RAWS SITE GUSTED TO 45 MPH LAST NIGHT AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY A BRIEF BUMP UP IN
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER UNDER SOME RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE
MID LEVEL DRY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY
03/07Z. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/02Z
AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE
INVERSION WITH A BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER
LITTLE MONDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE DIFFERENCE MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1877 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2825 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 007 BETWEEN 03/07-03/10Z AND CIGS 013 BETWEEN
03/10-03/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 010 AFTER 03/11Z

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 021742 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
PROMOTE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WED)... LATEST PRIEPS SHOW MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS ABOUT 1700 FT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTH. OUR ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE TIMING OF THE COASTAL STRATUS CLEARING SO EXPECT THE
USUAL MORNING BURN OFF. A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING FAR INLAND
SECTIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
LOCALIZED SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST. GUSTS AT THE REFUGIO
RAWS SITE GUSTED TO 45 MPH LAST NIGHT AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY A BRIEF BUMP UP IN
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER UNDER SOME RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE
MID LEVEL DRY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY
03/07Z. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 03/02Z
AND AFTER 03/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE
INVERSION WITH A BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER
LITTLE MONDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE DIFFERENCE MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1877 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 2825 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24.6 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 007 BETWEEN 03/07-03/10Z AND CIGS 013 BETWEEN
03/10-03/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 010 AFTER 03/11Z

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021632 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
932 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
PROMOTE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WED)... LATEST PRIEPS SHOW MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS ABOUT 1700 FT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTH. OUR ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE TIMING OF THE COASTAL STRATUS CLEARING SO EXPECT THE
USUAL MORNING BURN OFF. A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING FAR INLAND
SECTIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
LOCALIZED SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST. GUSTS AT THE REFUGIO
RAWS SITE GUSTED TO 45 MPH LAST NIGHT AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY A BRIEF BUMP UP IN
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER UNDER SOME RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1135Z...

AT 0816Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 1500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS ENTRENCHED
ALONG CENTRAL COAST...AND TRYING TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL COAST UNTIL
LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS VENTURA
AND LAX COASTS. VFR CONDS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG RESTRICTION WILL NOT DEVELOP AROUND 13Z FORECAST TIME. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST) AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
(A 50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021632 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
932 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL
PROMOTE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEK TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-WED)... LATEST PRIEPS SHOW MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS ABOUT 1700 FT SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTH. OUR ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE TIMING OF THE COASTAL STRATUS CLEARING SO EXPECT THE
USUAL MORNING BURN OFF. A LITTLE COOLER THIS MORNING FAR INLAND
SECTIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S IF NOT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
LOCALIZED SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST. GUSTS AT THE REFUGIO
RAWS SITE GUSTED TO 45 MPH LAST NIGHT AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY A BRIEF BUMP UP IN
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER UNDER SOME RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1135Z...

AT 0816Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 1500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS ENTRENCHED
ALONG CENTRAL COAST...AND TRYING TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL COAST UNTIL
LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS VENTURA
AND LAX COASTS. VFR CONDS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG RESTRICTION WILL NOT DEVELOP AROUND 13Z FORECAST TIME. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST) AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
(A 50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021619 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
919 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE GACC AND
INTERNAL DISCUSSION, UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. TODAY REMAINS A GOOD SET UP FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203-204-283. HOWEVER,
SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION AND COVERAGE TO MORE LIMITED AREAS. BUT THE SMOKE IS
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND EASTERN PARTS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY, WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING AND DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SOME OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY SO FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 444 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021619 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
919 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE GACC AND
INTERNAL DISCUSSION, UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. TODAY REMAINS A GOOD SET UP FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203-204-283. HOWEVER,
SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE DISTRICTS MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION AND COVERAGE TO MORE LIMITED AREAS. BUT THE SMOKE IS
CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AND EASTERN PARTS OF DEL
NORTE COUNTY, WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE HEATING AND DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SOME OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION. BUT MUST NOTE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY SO FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 444 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSGX 021608 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CORRECTED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT LOCATIONS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 12 MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE MARINE INVERSION HAS BOTH STRENGTHENED AND
DEEPENED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLOUD
FREE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ALOFT AND NO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DATABASE.

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT)...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 021630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC010-016 MSL WITH TOPS 2000
FEET SLOWLY CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THRU 21Z. CLEARING AT KSAN
AND KCRQ WILL BE BETWEEN 20-21Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS
RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 021608 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CORRECTED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT LOCATIONS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 12 MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE MARINE INVERSION HAS BOTH STRENGTHENED AND
DEEPENED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLOUD
FREE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ALOFT AND NO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DATABASE.

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT)...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 021630Z...COAST/VALLEYS...OVC010-016 MSL WITH TOPS 2000
FEET SLOWLY CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST THRU 21Z. CLEARING AT KSAN
AND KCRQ WILL BE BETWEEN 20-21Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS
RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 021603
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT LOCATIONS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 12 MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE MARINE INVERSION HAS BOTH STRENGTHENED AND
DEEPENED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLOUD
FREE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ALOFT AND NO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DATABASE.

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT)...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE




000
FXUS66 KSGX 021603
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT LOCATIONS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 12 MIRAMAR SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE MARINE INVERSION HAS BOTH STRENGTHENED AND
DEEPENED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLOUD
FREE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ALOFT AND NO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS. STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AND RETREAT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DATABASE.

...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 248 AM PDT)...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KSTO 021602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WORK IT`S WAY IN TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS WELL.

LAST NIGHT SAW A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 NORTH
THROUGH SHASTA COUNTY. ON THE ORDER OF 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED IN THAT AREA. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TO START POPPING UP BY NOON. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
CREST. MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CREST.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST THAT
MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREAS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY AND FROM NORTHERN PLUMAS COUNTY NORTHWARD.
FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PUSH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MAY START INTO NEVADA.

A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO KEEP INLAND
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT. A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 021602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WORK IT`S WAY IN TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS WELL.

LAST NIGHT SAW A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 NORTH
THROUGH SHASTA COUNTY. ON THE ORDER OF 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED IN THAT AREA. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TO START POPPING UP BY NOON. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
CREST. MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CREST.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST THAT
MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREAS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY AND FROM NORTHERN PLUMAS COUNTY NORTHWARD.
FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PUSH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MAY START INTO NEVADA.

A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO KEEP INLAND
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT. A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPSR 021553
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A STARK CONTRAST COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN
THOUGH YESTERDAY ENDED BEING SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...TODAY WILL BE EVEN MORE QUIET. LITTLE MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVEN DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPORADIC AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL QUICKLY DROP SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE
CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT
NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HIGHS SHOULD PEAK OUT IN A
104-108 RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 021553
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A STARK CONTRAST COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN
THOUGH YESTERDAY ENDED BEING SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...TODAY WILL BE EVEN MORE QUIET. LITTLE MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVEN DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPORADIC AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL QUICKLY DROP SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE
CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT
NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HIGHS SHOULD PEAK OUT IN A
104-108 RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021530
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021530
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021530
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN OVER THE BAY ARE THIS MORNING. MORNING SATELLITE SNAPSHOT
SHOWS ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST
OBS PUT THE DEPTH AT 2000-2200 FEET WITH WARM AND LOW RH ABOVE
THIS HEIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GRADUALLY ERODES THE MARINE AND
ROLLS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. INLAND AREAS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL
BE COMMON WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE MOST
NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 021203
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
502 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE
STORM ACTIVITY TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT
MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE
HRRR FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
444 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IN THE NUANCES OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOW IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE TODAY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FWX ZONES 203-204-283,
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY THUS FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A SLIGHT JOG IN THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT CONVECTION, AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THAT SAID, TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF
THE CRITICAL DAYS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH IMPROVING RECOVERIES. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 021144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
444 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IN THE NUANCES OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOW IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE TODAY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FWX ZONES 203-204-283,
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY THUS FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A SLIGHT JOG IN THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT CONVECTION, AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THAT SAID, TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF
THE CRITICAL DAYS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH IMPROVING RECOVERIES. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 021144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
444 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IN THE NUANCES OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOW IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE TODAY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FWX ZONES 203-204-283,
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY THUS FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A SLIGHT JOG IN THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT CONVECTION, AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THAT SAID, TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF
THE CRITICAL DAYS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH IMPROVING RECOVERIES. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021144
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
444 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE AT THE COAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GREET THE DAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HAS PROVEN CHALLENGING FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTION DETAILS IS LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANGES. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR NW
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LOW HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST OF EUREKA AND IS SWINGING LOBES OF ENERGY AROUND ITS SE
SEMICIRCLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO REACHING DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS PULLING PULSES OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE PROVIDING
INSTABILITY IN THE LOBES OF ENERGY. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWERS A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NOR CAL
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND MID MORNING, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF TSTMS TO
MUCH OF NW CAL WITH EXCEPTION OF SW MENDOCINO WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT
IS IN PLACE AND SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH MEANS IF ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SE, WHICH
HAS BROUGHT TSTMS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA`S AND NORTH CENTRAL CAL
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF TSTMS TO
TRINITY COUNTY TODAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES COOLER AIR SOUTH. WITH THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN, ALLOWING MOIST COASTAL AIR TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS TO
NW CAL INTERIOR AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CUT OFF LOW TO DEVELOP
OFF THE CENTRAL CAL COAST, WHICH WOULD AGAIN PULL IN SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT.

AS STATED ABOVE, THERE WERE LIMITED CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS, DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS PUSHED FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MOST SITES UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK HAVE BEEN
REPORTING IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MIST. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES THIS MORNING EASING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT WILL LAST VERY LONG
AT KACV AND KCEC. PROFILES INDICATE A DEEPER MOIST LAYER PUSHING
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO UKIAH MUNI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WITH
PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
MENDO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WIND FIELDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY NEAR SHORE THOUGH AS A TROUGH PERSISTS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 TO 25 KT
ON TUE IN PZZ470. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WED AND THU WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHORT PERIOD WIND SEAS. ON THU THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES LOW END GALES...WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
THE MODELS CAN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE IS STILL
SKETCHY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IN THE NUANCES OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOW IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE TODAY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FWX ZONES 203-204-283,
I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY THUS FAR AND LIKELY HAVE NOT
CHANGED WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A SLIGHT JOG IN THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT CONVECTION, AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THAT SAID, TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF
THE CRITICAL DAYS. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH IMPROVING RECOVERIES. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 021136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT COOLING IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS 1400
FEET DEEP AND IS CAPPED BY A MODERATE INVERSION. GRADIENTS TO THE
EAST ARE SIMILAR TO YDY BUT THERE IS A 1 MB OFFSHORE TREND FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS NO EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STARTED. THE CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALLOWING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ITS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND SO LOOK FOR VERY GOOD
CLEARING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY
AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF CONVECTION TODAY.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A WEAK TROF OFF OF THE WEST
COAST. THE FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BE FROM THE SW WHICH IS DRY AND THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE SUNDOWNER EACH EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR GAVIOTA. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST
STRATUS FREE....OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1135Z...

AT 0816Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 1500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS ENTRENCHED
ALONG CENTRAL COAST...AND TRYING TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL COAST UNTIL
LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS VENTURA
AND LAX COASTS. VFR CONDS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG RESTRICTION WILL NOT DEVELOP AROUND 13Z FORECAST TIME. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST) AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
(A 50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...

02/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY COAST. FOR THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 021136 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT COOLING IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS 1400
FEET DEEP AND IS CAPPED BY A MODERATE INVERSION. GRADIENTS TO THE
EAST ARE SIMILAR TO YDY BUT THERE IS A 1 MB OFFSHORE TREND FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS NO EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STARTED. THE CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALLOWING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ITS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND SO LOOK FOR VERY GOOD
CLEARING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY
AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF CONVECTION TODAY.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A WEAK TROF OFF OF THE WEST
COAST. THE FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BE FROM THE SW WHICH IS DRY AND THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE SUNDOWNER EACH EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR GAVIOTA. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST
STRATUS FREE....OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1135Z...

AT 0816Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 1500 FEET. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. STRATUS ENTRENCHED
ALONG CENTRAL COAST...AND TRYING TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL COAST UNTIL
LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS VENTURA
AND LAX COASTS. VFR CONDS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIG RESTRICTION WILL NOT DEVELOP AROUND 13Z FORECAST TIME. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING (+/- 3 HOURS OF CURRENT 08Z FORECAST) AND FLIGHT CATEGORY
(A 50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING).

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS 13Z-17Z THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...

02/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY COAST. FOR THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 021125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021125
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
425 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS IS MORE EXTENSIVE
THIS MORNING AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREAS.
MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN CLEARING OUT THE
STRATUS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO CLEAR SFO AT THE TYPICAL TIME OF
18Z WITH CLEARING OF THE APPROACH BY 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22 KT
AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR THROUGH 19Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KSTO 021017
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY LASSEN, PLUMAS, BUTTE AND SIERRA COUNTIES. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LINGERING AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS S CA...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z TODAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AND NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SIERRA THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
SIERRA CREST AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. BEYOND
TONIGHT, MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND UPPER
LOW OFF THE BC COAST AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OFF CA COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERIOR NORCAL. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S IN THE VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP INFLUENCED AREA TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 021017
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY LASSEN, PLUMAS, BUTTE AND SIERRA COUNTIES. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LINGERING AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS S CA...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
THIS MORNING...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z TODAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AND NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS THINKING. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SIERRA THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
SIERRA CREST AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. BEYOND
TONIGHT, MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND UPPER
LOW OFF THE BC COAST AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OFF CA COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERIOR NORCAL. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S IN THE VALLEY. MODERATE TO STRONG
DELTA BREEZE WILL KEEP INFLUENCED AREA TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KMTR 021013
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
313 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEST
WARMING IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WILL TRACK TO THE ENE AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MODEST COOLING OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR INLAND
BY MIDDAY EACH DAY...BUT ONLY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

BY MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FORM A
CUTOFF LOW OUT NEAR 140W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEEPENING TROUGH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK IS FORECAST
TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THIS LOW WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THEN JUST
TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT YET ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY ADDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...BUT IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:49 AM PDT SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MIXED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 021006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT COOLING IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS 1400
FEET DEEP AND IS CAPPED BY A MODERATE INVERSION. GRADIENTS TO THE
EAST ARE SIMILAR TO YDY BUT THERE IS A 1 MB OFFSHORE TREND FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS NO EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STARTED. THE CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALLOWING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ITS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND SO LOOK FOR VERY GOOD
CLEARING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY
AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF CONVECTION TODAY.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A WEAK TROF OFF OF THE WEST
COAST. THE FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BE FROM THE SW WHICH IS DRY AND THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE SUNDOWNER EACH EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR GAVIOTA. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST
STRATUS FREE....OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

02/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY COAST. FOR THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 021006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT COOLING IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS 1400
FEET DEEP AND IS CAPPED BY A MODERATE INVERSION. GRADIENTS TO THE
EAST ARE SIMILAR TO YDY BUT THERE IS A 1 MB OFFSHORE TREND FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS NO EDDY TONIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STARTED. THE CLEAR
SKIES ARE ALLOWING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ITS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND SO LOOK FOR VERY GOOD
CLEARING BY MID OR LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY
AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF CONVECTION TODAY.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
LARGE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND A WEAK TROF OFF OF THE WEST
COAST. THE FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BE FROM THE SW WHICH IS DRY AND THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE SUNDOWNER EACH EVENING ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR GAVIOTA. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST
STRATUS FREE....OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... AN WEAK AND DRY UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. PERHAPS A
LITTLE POP UP RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL RAISE THE INLAND TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRI AND SAT. IT IS NOT A RAIN
MAKER...PERHAPS A DRIZZLE MAKER. ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE
THE MARINE LAYER AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS SHOULD COVER ALL
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND LOWER
HGTS WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

02/230 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AS WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE SAN LUIS OBISPO
COUNTY COAST. FOR THESE AREAS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON/EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS66 KHNX 021000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPED SHIFT THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...A BIT
FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THIS KEPT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD SO THAT BY MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
AND LIMITED TO SIERRA CREST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FRIDAY AND
LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953
KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956

KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 021000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPED SHIFT THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...A BIT
FARTHER EAST SATURDAY. THIS KEPT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD SO THAT BY MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
AND LIMITED TO SIERRA CREST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FRIDAY AND
LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUD COVER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953
KFAT 08-04      110:1889     83:1976     82:1901     53:1956

KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
KBFL 08-04      109:1901     85:1953     85:1909     53:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 020948
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 020948
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 020948
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 020948
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 020948
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE WESTERN VALLEYS AT TIMES. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP...DECREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY
FOR MID WEEK..THEN INCREASE IN DEPTH SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID WEEK...THEN COOL
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 20-25 MI INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KONT AFTER 12Z. LOCAL VIS 3-5 SM
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STRATUS CLEARING
TO THE COAST 16-19Z. STRATUS WITH SIMILAR BASES/TOPS RETURNING TO
THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 03/01Z AND MOVING 15-20 MI INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH MON MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020944
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FAIRLY
WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB LAYER
OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020944
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
244 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FAIRLY
WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB LAYER
OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS66 KMTR 020601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BE MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BE MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BE MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BE MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020601
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1101 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED
BACK IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. KOAK...KSFO...KMRY AND
KSNS ARE ALL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. MARINE BASED INVERSIONS ARE
HOLDING STEADILY AT ABOUT 2000-2200 FEET...AND MORE STRATUS AS
WELL AS FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIG TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BY 17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAINLY DRY
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BE MIXED NORTHWEST SWELL AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 020552
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020552
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020552
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020552
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020552
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...

02/0545Z

AT 05Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE CIGS AT ALL CSTL/VLY XCP KSBA
TERMINALS BY 13Z. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME WHICH
COULD BE OFF BY 2 HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIMES. THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS AT KSBA 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 08Z-12Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR
UNTIL 16Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU 03/06Z.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF MARINE LAYER TOMORROW EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF CIGS AND COULD HAPPEN
ANYTIME 09Z-13Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING AND REST OF FCST THRU
03/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...ASR/HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020530 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020530 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 020508
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1008 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO PLUMAS AND
EASTERN TEHAMA COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS GRASS VALLEY NORTH. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS GUIDANCE. FAIRLY STRONG DELTA BREEZE
ONGOING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING UP AND DOWN THE VALLEY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE. INTO
THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS. LCL
SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 020431
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE RFW...FWF...AND HWO TO REMOVE RED FLAG
WARNING HEADLINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. /SEC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 402 PM...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING
     FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
907 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
907 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
907 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST MOVES EAST.

&&

.UPDATE...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 36N AND 135W...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND KEEP NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS THE SEABREEZE
ARRIVES AND PUSHES INTO THE DESERT.

LOCALLY GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE RIDING NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS CURRENTLY. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED TO -3.8 MB LAST HOUR...BUT MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCAL 2-KM WRF MSL
PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH MAY
FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT LIKELY EXTENDING
INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA SOUTH COAST IN
THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING STRATUS...CLEARING DURING
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS A BUMP IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...AND ACROSS THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD
START DIMINISHING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KSGX 020403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS DECKS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
STRIP OF SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR INDICATED A MARINE INVERSION OF ABOUT 8
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THE INVERSION STRENGTH HASN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE INLAND MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT THE GENERALLY
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING SO NO NON-ROUTINE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 145 PM PDT)...

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

020300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH INLAND AND IMPACT
COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...WITH BASES BETWEEN 1400 AND
1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2100 FT MSL. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE KONT
TAF IS HIGH TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AND REDUCED VIS IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. SLOW CLEARING IS LIKELY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 19Z.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOEDE



000
FXUS66 KSGX 020403
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE STRATUS DECKS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
STRIP OF SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR INDICATED A MARINE INVERSION OF ABOUT 8
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THE INVERSION STRENGTH HASN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE INLAND MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT THE GENERALLY
SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING SO NO NON-ROUTINE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 145 PM PDT)...

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

020300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH INLAND AND IMPACT
COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...WITH BASES BETWEEN 1400 AND
1800 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 2100 FT MSL. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE KONT
TAF IS HIGH TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AND REDUCED VIS IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. SLOW CLEARING IS LIKELY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY 19Z.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

800 PM...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOEDE




000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 020342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
823 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED
FROM MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AN EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING...SO WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
IN MOST COASTAL AREAS BY LATE EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP IN MOST
VALLEYS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A
BIT AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLS A FEW DEGREES. BY MIDWEEK AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RESULT IN
MODEST WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROJECTED TO DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK...AND DRY...UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD AND ACROSS CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 020047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 020047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020047
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
547 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:34 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE PER SATELLITE AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AROUND THE AREA NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE
PER HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER...TOTAL AMOUNT OF
WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...ON THE EVENING 00Z OAKLAND
SOUNDING IS STILL ABOUT 1 INCH. GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL COOLING AS WELL
AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DRYING...AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS...IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MARINE LAYER INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTACT SUPPORTING STRATUS
AS WELL AS SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS TIL
03Z. MVFR CIG 08Z-12Z FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIG TIL 17Z IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. IFR CIGS FORECAST WITH TEMPO
GROUPS 06Z-10Z. MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020043 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 020043 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020043 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 020043 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0043Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1300 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25
DEGREES CELSIUS.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AT COASTAL TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS...THEN
LIFT INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VALLEY TERMINALS AND
KSBA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

KLAX...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING UNTIL 20Z.

KBUR...THERE IS 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012308
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012308
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012308
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012308
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
408 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 012302
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 012302
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 012302
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
402 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OFF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF
THE NW CAL COAST WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO
OUR AREA WHILE ALSO HELPING PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IF
ANYTHING, MODELS INDICATE SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER THAN TODAY FOR
CONVECTION. ADD TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE
LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR NW CAL, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED
CEILINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT KCEC AND KACV OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE
DUE PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LEFT THE RED FLAG WARNING UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. 2245Z RADAR DOESN`T SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR
DISTRICTS. PLUS, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING IN
FROM THE SW, BOTH PROVIDING THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY, MID AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY INDICATING SUNDAY MIGHT BE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE CURRENT
WARNING (ZONES 203, 204, AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 283) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH,
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS,
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION. PLUS, WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY
FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE HIGHLY LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TERRAIN
DRIVEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAZ003-004.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KREV 012202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS66 KSTO 012202
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS BTWN
20Z-04Z. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 012202
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RETURN OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER THE SIERRA RANGE.
INTO THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGERING AROUND. THE NAM INDICATES A NICE VORT MAX
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH PLUMAS, SHASTA, EASTERN
TEHAMA AND BUTTE COUNTIES POSSIBLY ON THE RECIPIENT END. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE CREST OR TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST.

AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF
THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

A STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES
PLEASANT. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND WETTER
WAVE THAN THE EC, BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED ATTM.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY WITH MINOR WARMING OF THE AMS.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CAL COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT
GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN TSTMS BTWN
20Z-04Z. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30 KTS POSS THRU DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012149
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS66 KMTR 012141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
241 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 012141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
241 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTLE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE
INCREASES. ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE AND FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORT
ORD PROFILER CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET
DEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE
AS WELL. THUS...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM-UP IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF OUR COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED SEAS WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KHNX 012120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY
EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY
EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY
EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 012120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STAGNANT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS SHIFTED THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY
EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. A FEW SHOWERS FORMED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TULARE COUNTY NORTHWARD...HOWEVER NO STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING WERE OBSERVED AS OF 2 PM.

OTHERWISE...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED AROUND 800 FEET (CURRENTLY
NEAR 2,000 FEET) BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK GENERALLY FROM FRESNO SOUTHWARD.

A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL BETWEEN 2
AND 4 DEGREES EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY AND FOOTHILL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...BETWEEN 2 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SLOWLY NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012116
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 012116
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL. LIGHT MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 8 KTS. HWVR...TSTMS OVR MTNS 50 MILES EAST OF
PHX THROUGH 06Z SUN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

THROUGH 18Z SUN...SCT CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012110
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012110
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012108 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012108 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012108 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012108 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
212 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM MONDAY. AND
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012102 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012102 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 012102 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 012102 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MARINE
LAYER DEPTH MAY FLUCTUATE EACH NIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
SIMILAR OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS COVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH IT
LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS. A BUMP UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP EDDY FORMATION AND KEEP THE SBA
SOUTH COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT CLEAR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY BE STREAMING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... NOT MUCH CHANGE AT ALL IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME-MORNING
STRATUS...CLEARING DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST
BELOW NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A DRY CLOSED UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN OFF THE COAST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MOUNTAINS AND
FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND COOL OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...MORE
NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR SLO
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KSGX 012046
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD LINGERED AT THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES CLEARED A LITTLE BETTER TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
OF THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER THAN IS WAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE
MONSOON MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER ARIZONA. A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 012000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 2000
FT AND TOPS BLO 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND OVER COASTAL AREAS...RETURNING TO COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
02/02Z-05Z. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS NEAR 2000 FT OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING INLAND UP TO 25SM
THROUGH 13Z SUN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.

KONT...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER.
DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE...AN IFR CIG MAY BE ADDED FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 1 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE AFT/EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 012046
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD LINGERED AT THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES CLEARED A LITTLE BETTER TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
OF THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER THAN IS WAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE
MONSOON MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER ARIZONA. A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 012000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 2000
FT AND TOPS BLO 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND OVER COASTAL AREAS...RETURNING TO COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
02/02Z-05Z. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS NEAR 2000 FT OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING INLAND UP TO 25SM
THROUGH 13Z SUN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.

KONT...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER.
DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE...AN IFR CIG MAY BE ADDED FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 1 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE AFT/EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 012046
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD LINGERED AT THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES CLEARED A LITTLE BETTER TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
OF THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER THAN IS WAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE
MONSOON MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER ARIZONA. A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 012000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 2000
FT AND TOPS BLO 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND OVER COASTAL AREAS...RETURNING TO COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
02/02Z-05Z. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS NEAR 2000 FT OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING INLAND UP TO 25SM
THROUGH 13Z SUN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.

KONT...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER.
DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE...AN IFR CIG MAY BE ADDED FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 1 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE AFT/EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 012046
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FORCE MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REACH
THE WESTERN VALLEYS EACH NIGHT AND RETREAT TO NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE STRATUS SHIELD LINGERED AT THE SAN DIEGO COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES CLEARED A LITTLE BETTER TODAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT SOME
OF THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH DRIER THAN IS WAS ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
LOWER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE
MONSOON MOISTURE BOTTLED UP OVER ARIZONA. A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A 500 MB UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY GAINS FOOTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING WARM/HOT DAYS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET
SHALLOWER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN
AND DESERT WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 012000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 2000
FT AND TOPS BLO 2500 FT MSL OVER THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND OVER COASTAL AREAS...RETURNING TO COASTAL AIRPORTS BY
02/02Z-05Z. THE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 1000-1500 FT MSL WITH
TOPS NEAR 2000 FT OVERNIGHT...AND SPREADING INLAND UP TO 25SM
THROUGH 13Z SUN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.

KONT...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER.
DEPENDING ON LATER GUIDANCE...AN IFR CIG MAY BE ADDED FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAWN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 1 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE AFT/EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011746 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUE)...WHAT WE GET TODAY IS WHAT WE`LL
SEE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE OUR UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE IF ANY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 1300 FT OR SO MARINE LAYER
HAS BROUGHT THE STRATUS INTO MOST OF THE NEARBY VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH
THE SBA SOUTH COAST HAS HAD TROUBLE FILLING IN SO FAR. THIS WILL ALL
BURN OFF ON A SIMILAR SCHEDULE TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS FULLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE NOT EVEN
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CUMULUS. MODELS INDICATING THE MARINE
LAYER WILL SHRINK A BIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MAY NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS THIS MORNING AND MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS. WIND-WISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY EVENING SUNDOWNER WINDS
SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NW-SE AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND DRY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT DRY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02/10Z. WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 02/04Z AND AFTER 02/20Z
OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION WITH A
BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.8KFT THE MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE SUNDAY
MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1820 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3625 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 009 BETWEEN 02/05-01/09Z. CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
02/09-02/18Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 007 AFTER 02/11Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY... TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
PATTERN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... JUST
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING AROUND 10 TO 15K FT AGL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AOA 5Z SUN.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... MVFR LIGS LINGER ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THROUGH 19Z SAT. OTHERWISE... VFR THROUGH MIDDAY WITH EARLY
RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AOA 01Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011709
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS COMING TO AN
END AS WE TRANSITION INTO A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES
OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE PWATS WERE
STILL OVER 1.5". THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT FARTHER WEST THE PWATS FALL OFF SHARPLY AND ARE BELOW
1.0" OVER THE APPLE AND VICTOR VALLEYS IN SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THIS TRANSITION TO DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A MODERATELY
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH RETURNS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM/HOT DAYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN MORE OR LESS INTACT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
BUT THE LONG RANGE ECMWF INDICATES THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BOTTLED UP FARTHER EAST OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION... 011530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2100 FT MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST FROM 16Z-
18Z. STRATUS LAYER WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND RETURN TO
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02Z-05Z AND MOVE UP TO 25 SM INLAND THROUGH 13Z
SUN. BASES AND TOPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OR NEAR HEIGHTS OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

KONT...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR STRATUS LAYER RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT TAF REFLECTS SOME VIS RESTRICTION AND SCT DECK IN THE
VICINITY AFT 12Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUN/MON EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011709
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS COMING TO AN
END AS WE TRANSITION INTO A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES
OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE PWATS WERE
STILL OVER 1.5". THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT FARTHER WEST THE PWATS FALL OFF SHARPLY AND ARE BELOW
1.0" OVER THE APPLE AND VICTOR VALLEYS IN SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THIS TRANSITION TO DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A MODERATELY
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH RETURNS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM/HOT DAYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN MORE OR LESS INTACT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
BUT THE LONG RANGE ECMWF INDICATES THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BOTTLED UP FARTHER EAST OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION... 011530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2100 FT MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST FROM 16Z-
18Z. STRATUS LAYER WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND RETURN TO
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02Z-05Z AND MOVE UP TO 25 SM INLAND THROUGH 13Z
SUN. BASES AND TOPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OR NEAR HEIGHTS OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

KONT...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR STRATUS LAYER RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT TAF REFLECTS SOME VIS RESTRICTION AND SCT DECK IN THE
VICINITY AFT 12Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUN/MON EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011709
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS COMING TO AN
END AS WE TRANSITION INTO A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES
OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE PWATS WERE
STILL OVER 1.5". THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT FARTHER WEST THE PWATS FALL OFF SHARPLY AND ARE BELOW
1.0" OVER THE APPLE AND VICTOR VALLEYS IN SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THIS TRANSITION TO DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A MODERATELY
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH RETURNS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM/HOT DAYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN MORE OR LESS INTACT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
BUT THE LONG RANGE ECMWF INDICATES THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BOTTLED UP FARTHER EAST OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION... 011530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2100 FT MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST FROM 16Z-
18Z. STRATUS LAYER WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND RETURN TO
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02Z-05Z AND MOVE UP TO 25 SM INLAND THROUGH 13Z
SUN. BASES AND TOPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OR NEAR HEIGHTS OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

KONT...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR STRATUS LAYER RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT TAF REFLECTS SOME VIS RESTRICTION AND SCT DECK IN THE
VICINITY AFT 12Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUN/MON EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011709
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS COMING TO AN
END AS WE TRANSITION INTO A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL RESIDES
OVER EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE PWATS WERE
STILL OVER 1.5". THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT FARTHER WEST THE PWATS FALL OFF SHARPLY AND ARE BELOW
1.0" OVER THE APPLE AND VICTOR VALLEYS IN SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY.

THIS TRANSITION TO DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A MODERATELY
DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN VALLEYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE OUTER WATERS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH RETURNS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARM/HOT DAYS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
REMAIN MORE OR LESS INTACT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
BUT THE LONG RANGE ECMWF INDICATES THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BOTTLED UP FARTHER EAST OVER ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION... 011530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2100 FT MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST FROM 16Z-
18Z. STRATUS LAYER WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND RETURN TO
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02Z-05Z AND MOVE UP TO 25 SM INLAND THROUGH 13Z
SUN. BASES AND TOPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OR NEAR HEIGHTS OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

KONT...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR STRATUS LAYER RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT TAF REFLECTS SOME VIS RESTRICTION AND SCT DECK IN THE
VICINITY AFT 12Z SUN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 830 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUN/MON EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS66 KLOX 011632 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUE)...WHAT WE GET TODAY IS WHAT WE`LL
SEE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE OUR UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE IF ANY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 1300 FT OR SO MARINE LAYER
HAS BROUGHT THE STRATUS INTO MOST OF THE NEARBY VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH
THE SBA SOUTH COAST HAS HAD TROUBLE FILLING IN SO FAR. THIS WILL ALL
BURN OFF ON A SIMILAR SCHEDULE TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS FULLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE NOT EVEN
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CUMULUS. MODELS INDICATING THE MARINE
LAYER WILL SHRINK A BIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MAY NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS THIS MORNING AND MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS. WIND-WISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY EVENING SUNDOWNER WINDS
SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011632 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUE)...WHAT WE GET TODAY IS WHAT WE`LL
SEE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE OUR UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE IF ANY THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 1300 FT OR SO MARINE LAYER
HAS BROUGHT THE STRATUS INTO MOST OF THE NEARBY VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH
THE SBA SOUTH COAST HAS HAD TROUBLE FILLING IN SO FAR. THIS WILL ALL
BURN OFF ON A SIMILAR SCHEDULE TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS FULLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE NOT EVEN
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CUMULUS. MODELS INDICATING THE MARINE
LAYER WILL SHRINK A BIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT
STRATUS MAY NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS THIS MORNING AND MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOME MOUNTAIN
AREAS. WIND-WISE WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY EVENING SUNDOWNER WINDS
SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO
SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
(WED). THERE IS A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011627
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
927 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
NO SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MARINE LAYER
JUST ABOVE 2000 FT CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NORTH BAY...EXPECTING A BIT SLOWER BURN-OFF OF THE STRATUS.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
HAS DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
SWITCH FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PDT SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO THE WEEK. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SEAS WITH A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP


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000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 011617
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
917 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP OVER WEST END OF THE VALLEY
AND MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. THAT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MOST HEAVILY CONCENTRATED AREA LOCATED OVER THE
BURNEY BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA
RANGE BY 11 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOK TO PUSH TO EAST OF THE CREST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS HELPING TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BIT COOLER TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS. SWLY
WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z SUN. ELSW, WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20 KTS IN THE SAC VLY
AFT 21Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS66 KEKA 011222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
522 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE NW CAL COAST WILL
STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME, MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS THIS LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD NW CAL.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS STEERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AS A RESULT, NW CAL WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TODAY WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH WHILE SHORT WAVES SWING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL CAPES ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND AND
LI`S ARE IN THE -3 RANGE. PUT TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE
WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR NW CAL SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER BOUT ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL
HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVEL WITH DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. OVERALL, THERE
WERE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, JUST NUDGINGS AND
TWEAKINGS.

SMOKE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE, SMOKE
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE NW CAL COAST. HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS FIRES
ALREADY BURNING, SOUTH AND WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
INTERIOR REGIONS PLAGUED WITH SMOKE AND ASHFALL.

COASTAL AREAS...THE LOW OFFSHORE HAS BEEN ACTING TO LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGING AROUND FROM IFR TO VFR. CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN RANGING FROM 500-1200FT AT BOTH KACV AND KCEC. ALSO A SMOKE
LAYER ALOFT NEAR 7500 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STATISTICAL MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND FOR THE MOST PART NOT
UTILIZED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES THIS
MORNING...SO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE
AIRPORTS INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROBABLY SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY SMOKEY LAYERS ALOFT
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR IFR CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10
KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MENDO WILL
GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS UP TO 15 KT AROUND
THE CAPE TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AS THE
LAND MASS HEATS UP. THIS LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD SUN
THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON BOTH THESE DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN INTO TUE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WELL. IF ANYTHING SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AND MON AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE ABATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEAS WILL BE
MADE UP OF A SHORT PERIOD NW GROUP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT AT 8 SECONDS
AND A LONGER PERIOD GROUP AROUND 2-3 FT FROM THE SW CENTERED NEAR
14 SECONDS. MORE DOMINATING SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL BUILD EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OPTED TO ISSUE A RFW FOR TRINITY AND EASTERN DEL
NORTE COUNTIES DUE TO EXPECTED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM
COMING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NOR CAL COAST IS PULLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SW AND PROVIDING A TRIGGER MECHANISM. LOOKING AT MORNING
SATELLITE, THIS SHOULD LINE UP FOR NW CAL. ONE CONCERN, IN TERMS
OF WHERE LIGHTNING WILL HIT, IS THAT THE CONVECTION COULD SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BRINGING FWX ZONES 211 AND 212 INTO ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
REALM. WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE IF WE COME TO IT. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. MODEL PWATS ARE IN THE
1.25 INCH RANGE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME
RAIN FALL WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE AREAS WHERE THE RFW IS ISSUED,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
WHATEVER RAIN FALLS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF NOT
TOTALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BESIDES, WITH
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR, WE MAY NEED A WATCH
FOR SUNDAY TOO. AGAIN, WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN RFW VERIFICATION. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 011222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
522 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE NW CAL COAST WILL
STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME, MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS THIS LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD NW CAL.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS STEERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AS A RESULT, NW CAL WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TODAY WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH WHILE SHORT WAVES SWING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL CAPES ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND AND
LI`S ARE IN THE -3 RANGE. PUT TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE
WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR NW CAL SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER BOUT ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL
HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVEL WITH DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. OVERALL, THERE
WERE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, JUST NUDGINGS AND
TWEAKINGS.

SMOKE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE, SMOKE
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE NW CAL COAST. HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS FIRES
ALREADY BURNING, SOUTH AND WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
INTERIOR REGIONS PLAGUED WITH SMOKE AND ASHFALL.

COASTAL AREAS...THE LOW OFFSHORE HAS BEEN ACTING TO LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGING AROUND FROM IFR TO VFR. CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN RANGING FROM 500-1200FT AT BOTH KACV AND KCEC. ALSO A SMOKE
LAYER ALOFT NEAR 7500 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STATISTICAL MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND FOR THE MOST PART NOT
UTILIZED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES THIS
MORNING...SO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE
AIRPORTS INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROBABLY SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY SMOKEY LAYERS ALOFT
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR IFR CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10
KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MENDO WILL
GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS UP TO 15 KT AROUND
THE CAPE TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AS THE
LAND MASS HEATS UP. THIS LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD SUN
THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON BOTH THESE DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN INTO TUE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WELL. IF ANYTHING SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AND MON AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE ABATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEAS WILL BE
MADE UP OF A SHORT PERIOD NW GROUP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT AT 8 SECONDS
AND A LONGER PERIOD GROUP AROUND 2-3 FT FROM THE SW CENTERED NEAR
14 SECONDS. MORE DOMINATING SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL BUILD EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OPTED TO ISSUE A RFW FOR TRINITY AND EASTERN DEL
NORTE COUNTIES DUE TO EXPECTED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM
COMING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NOR CAL COAST IS PULLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SW AND PROVIDING A TRIGGER MECHANISM. LOOKING AT MORNING
SATELLITE, THIS SHOULD LINE UP FOR NW CAL. ONE CONCERN, IN TERMS
OF WHERE LIGHTNING WILL HIT, IS THAT THE CONVECTION COULD SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BRINGING FWX ZONES 211 AND 212 INTO ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
REALM. WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE IF WE COME TO IT. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. MODEL PWATS ARE IN THE
1.25 INCH RANGE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME
RAIN FALL WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE AREAS WHERE THE RFW IS ISSUED,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
WHATEVER RAIN FALLS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF NOT
TOTALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BESIDES, WITH
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR, WE MAY NEED A WATCH
FOR SUNDAY TOO. AGAIN, WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN RFW VERIFICATION. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 011222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
522 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE NW CAL COAST WILL
STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME, MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS THIS LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD NW CAL.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS STEERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AS A RESULT, NW CAL WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TODAY WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH WHILE SHORT WAVES SWING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL CAPES ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND AND
LI`S ARE IN THE -3 RANGE. PUT TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE
WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR NW CAL SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER BOUT ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL
HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVEL WITH DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. OVERALL, THERE
WERE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, JUST NUDGINGS AND
TWEAKINGS.

SMOKE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE, SMOKE
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE NW CAL COAST. HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS FIRES
ALREADY BURNING, SOUTH AND WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
INTERIOR REGIONS PLAGUED WITH SMOKE AND ASHFALL.

COASTAL AREAS...THE LOW OFFSHORE HAS BEEN ACTING TO LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGING AROUND FROM IFR TO VFR. CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN RANGING FROM 500-1200FT AT BOTH KACV AND KCEC. ALSO A SMOKE
LAYER ALOFT NEAR 7500 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STATISTICAL MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND FOR THE MOST PART NOT
UTILIZED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES THIS
MORNING...SO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE
AIRPORTS INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROBABLY SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY SMOKEY LAYERS ALOFT
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR IFR CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10
KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MENDO WILL
GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS UP TO 15 KT AROUND
THE CAPE TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AS THE
LAND MASS HEATS UP. THIS LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD SUN
THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON BOTH THESE DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN INTO TUE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WELL. IF ANYTHING SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AND MON AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE ABATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEAS WILL BE
MADE UP OF A SHORT PERIOD NW GROUP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT AT 8 SECONDS
AND A LONGER PERIOD GROUP AROUND 2-3 FT FROM THE SW CENTERED NEAR
14 SECONDS. MORE DOMINATING SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL BUILD EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OPTED TO ISSUE A RFW FOR TRINITY AND EASTERN DEL
NORTE COUNTIES DUE TO EXPECTED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM
COMING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NOR CAL COAST IS PULLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SW AND PROVIDING A TRIGGER MECHANISM. LOOKING AT MORNING
SATELLITE, THIS SHOULD LINE UP FOR NW CAL. ONE CONCERN, IN TERMS
OF WHERE LIGHTNING WILL HIT, IS THAT THE CONVECTION COULD SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BRINGING FWX ZONES 211 AND 212 INTO ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
REALM. WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE IF WE COME TO IT. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. MODEL PWATS ARE IN THE
1.25 INCH RANGE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME
RAIN FALL WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE AREAS WHERE THE RFW IS ISSUED,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
WHATEVER RAIN FALLS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF NOT
TOTALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BESIDES, WITH
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR, WE MAY NEED A WATCH
FOR SUNDAY TOO. AGAIN, WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN RFW VERIFICATION. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 011222
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
522 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
A VIGOROUS LOW OF THE COAST WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE NW CAL COAST WILL
STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME, MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS THIS LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD NW CAL.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS STEERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY. AS A RESULT, NW CAL WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TODAY WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH WHILE SHORT WAVES SWING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEL CAPES ARE SEVERAL THOUSAND AND
LI`S ARE IN THE -3 RANGE. PUT TERRAIN INTO THIS EQUATIONS AND WE
WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR LIFT. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR NW CAL SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER A DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER BOUT ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL
HAVE FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO COOL NW CAL AND BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVEL WITH DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. OVERALL, THERE
WERE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, JUST NUDGINGS AND
TWEAKINGS.

SMOKE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE, SMOKE
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE NW CAL COAST. HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS FIRES
ALREADY BURNING, SOUTH AND WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
INTERIOR REGIONS PLAGUED WITH SMOKE AND ASHFALL.

COASTAL AREAS...THE LOW OFFSHORE HAS BEEN ACTING TO LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGING AROUND FROM IFR TO VFR. CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN RANGING FROM 500-1200FT AT BOTH KACV AND KCEC. ALSO A SMOKE
LAYER ALOFT NEAR 7500 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE STATISTICAL MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND FOR THE MOST PART NOT
UTILIZED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES THIS
MORNING...SO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE
AIRPORTS INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROBABLY SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY SMOKEY LAYERS ALOFT
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR OR IFR CLOUD LAYERS TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR CRITERIA FOR
ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10
KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MENDO WILL
GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS UP TO 15 KT AROUND
THE CAPE TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AS THE
LAND MASS HEATS UP. THIS LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD SUN
THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON BOTH THESE DAYS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA EVEN INTO TUE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS WELL. IF ANYTHING SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AND MON AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE ABATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEAS WILL BE
MADE UP OF A SHORT PERIOD NW GROUP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT AT 8 SECONDS
AND A LONGER PERIOD GROUP AROUND 2-3 FT FROM THE SW CENTERED NEAR
14 SECONDS. MORE DOMINATING SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL BUILD EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OPTED TO ISSUE A RFW FOR TRINITY AND EASTERN DEL
NORTE COUNTIES DUE TO EXPECTED ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING, PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM
COMING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NOR CAL COAST IS PULLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SW AND PROVIDING A TRIGGER MECHANISM. LOOKING AT MORNING
SATELLITE, THIS SHOULD LINE UP FOR NW CAL. ONE CONCERN, IN TERMS
OF WHERE LIGHTNING WILL HIT, IS THAT THE CONVECTION COULD SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BRINGING FWX ZONES 211 AND 212 INTO ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
REALM. WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE IF WE COME TO IT. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. MODEL PWATS ARE IN THE
1.25 INCH RANGE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE SOME
RAIN FALL WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE AREAS WHERE THE RFW IS ISSUED,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
WHATEVER RAIN FALLS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IF NOT
TOTALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BESIDES, WITH
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING EXPECTED, STRIKES AWAY FROM A RAIN SHAFT ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY. IF THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR, WE MAY NEED A WATCH
FOR SUNDAY TOO. AGAIN, WE`LL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE COME TO IT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN RFW VERIFICATION. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ003-004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUN MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORIES
WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MID WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDS
BECOMING LIKELY SUN NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER HAS ACTED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FROM SFO AND OAK
THIS MORNING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL RETURN.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS AREAS OF CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN SFO BAY
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND BRING CIGS
INTO SFO AND THE APPROACH BY 14Z. WITH THE MARINE LAYER AT AROUND
2000 FEET CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH 19Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 14Z. CLEARING AFTER 18Z
AT THE AIRPORT...19Z OVER THE APPROACH. WEST WINDS 20 KT AFTER
20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD CIGS COVER MRY SND SNS
THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOCAL ADIABATIC WARMING
WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUN MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORIES
WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MID WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDS
BECOMING LIKELY SUN NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUN MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORIES
WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MID WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDS
BECOMING LIKELY SUN NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011037
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

31/800 PM

LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM POINT
CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS NEAR/WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND. THE SCA WINDS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING BUT ARE MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS IN THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 011037
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.



KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.MARINE...

31/800 PM

LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM POINT
CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS NEAR/WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND. THE SCA WINDS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING BUT ARE MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS IN THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A
COOLING AIRMASS AND INCREASING DELTA BREEZE. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE LEFT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST RIDE AND WILL SEE IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW RETURNS OVER SHASTA COUNTY THOUGH. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NORTH. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WET THAN
FRIDAY BUT ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN GIVEN DRY FUEL STATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES MORE FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTING EAST. STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INFLUENCED AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT FOCUS
MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MORE STABLE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS AREA
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE
OF SIERRA CREST ALTHO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON MONDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL!
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS, MAINLY
20Z-03Z SUN. SWLY WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z
SUN. ELSW, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20
KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT 23Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 011028
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
328 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A
COOLING AIRMASS AND INCREASING DELTA BREEZE. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE LEFT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST RIDE AND WILL SEE IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE. SO
FAR ONLY A FEW RETURNS OVER SHASTA COUNTY THOUGH. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NORTH. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WET THAN
FRIDAY BUT ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN GIVEN DRY FUEL STATUS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES MORE FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTING EAST. STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INFLUENCED AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT FOCUS
MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS MORE STABLE ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS AREA
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE
OF SIERRA CREST ALTHO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE ON MONDAY. FURTHER COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL!
CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

WEAK TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS NXT 24 HRS EXC SCT MVFR CONDS VCNTY TSRA OMTNS, MAINLY
20Z-03Z SUN. SWLY WINDS 25-35 KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA THRU 12Z
SUN. ELSW, WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXC BECMG SLY 10-20
KTS IN THE SAC VLY AFT 23Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KMTR 011009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT IS SHOWING STRATUS PENETRATING BOTH SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAYS AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
PRETTY SOLID AT A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE TOMORROWS STRATUS
BURNOFF COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BKN-OVC015 IS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z.
FIRST GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1830Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENTLY OVC009 AT MONTEREY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO AROUND 600
FEET BY 1000Z WITH A PERIOD OF 3SM BR BKN003 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200
AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT IS SHOWING STRATUS PENETRATING BOTH SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAYS AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
PRETTY SOLID AT A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE TOMORROWS STRATUS
BURNOFF COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BKN-OVC015 IS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z.
FIRST GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1830Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENTLY OVC009 AT MONTEREY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO AROUND 600
FEET BY 1000Z WITH A PERIOD OF 3SM BR BKN003 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200
AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 011009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. NO
SIGN OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED
TO MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED CLOSE TO 2000 FEET AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS SWITCH
FROM WNW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 4C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING BOTH
AT THE COAST AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST INLAND
SPOTS. IN SOME CASES INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

SYNOPTICALLY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SW AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY ADVANCES TO OUR COAST.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
FLOW OF THE LOW SO ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES. COASTAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
THIS PATTERN MAY HOLD ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT IS SHOWING STRATUS PENETRATING BOTH SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAYS AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
PRETTY SOLID AT A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE TOMORROWS STRATUS
BURNOFF COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BKN-OVC015 IS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z.
FIRST GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1830Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENTLY OVC009 AT MONTEREY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO AROUND 600
FEET BY 1000Z WITH A PERIOD OF 3SM BR BKN003 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200
AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010951
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
251 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A MARINE LAYER BRINGING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A VERY TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
AUGUST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR ENHANCED SUNRISES AND SUNSETS FOR THOSE AREAS
NOT BLOCKED BY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE NUDGED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BY THE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 900-1300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL SLOWLY SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND THIS MORNING.
STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02-05Z AND MOVE 25-30 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES
AND TOPS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010951
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
251 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A MARINE LAYER BRINGING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A VERY TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
AUGUST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR ENHANCED SUNRISES AND SUNSETS FOR THOSE AREAS
NOT BLOCKED BY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE NUDGED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BY THE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 900-1300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL SLOWLY SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND THIS MORNING.
STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02-05Z AND MOVE 25-30 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES
AND TOPS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010951
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
251 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A MARINE LAYER BRINGING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A VERY TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
AUGUST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR ENHANCED SUNRISES AND SUNSETS FOR THOSE AREAS
NOT BLOCKED BY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE NUDGED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BY THE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 900-1300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL SLOWLY SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND THIS MORNING.
STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02-05Z AND MOVE 25-30 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES
AND TOPS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010951
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
251 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND A MARINE LAYER BRINGING
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND TO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A VERY TRANQUIL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
AUGUST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FEET DEEP WITH
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR ENHANCED SUNRISES AND SUNSETS FOR THOSE AREAS
NOT BLOCKED BY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE NUDGED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BY THE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 900-1300 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 1800 FT MSL SLOWLY SPREADING 20-25 MI INLAND THIS MORNING.
STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS 02/02-05Z AND MOVE 25-30 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. BASES
AND TOPS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET HIGHER. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
235 AM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KMTR 010547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS DETECTED
NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACTIVITY SINCE EARLY EVENING. A
FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THUS...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER A POSSIBILITY...AT
LEAST NOT THROUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY CONTINUED TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWED MARINE AIR TO
INFILTRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE LIVERMORE AIRPORT`S HIGH OF 87
TODAY WAS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S HIGH OF 107.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT AT A SLOWER PACE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
WEST COAST. ALSO...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
A BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED PAST 2000 FEET THIS EVENING. WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
NEAR THE OCEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT IS SHOWING STRATUS PENETRATING BOTH SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAYS AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
PRETTY SOLID AT A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE TOMORROWS STRATUS
BURNOFF COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BKN-OVC015 IS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z.
FIRST GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1830Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENTLY OVC009 AT MONTEREY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO AROUND 600
FEET BY 1000Z WITH A PERIOD OF 3SM BR BKN003 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200
AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 010547
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS DETECTED
NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACTIVITY SINCE EARLY EVENING. A
FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THUS...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER A POSSIBILITY...AT
LEAST NOT THROUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY CONTINUED TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWED MARINE AIR TO
INFILTRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE LIVERMORE AIRPORT`S HIGH OF 87
TODAY WAS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S HIGH OF 107.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT AT A SLOWER PACE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
WEST COAST. ALSO...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
A BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED PAST 2000 FEET THIS EVENING. WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
NEAR THE OCEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT GOES MVFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCT IS SHOWING STRATUS PENETRATING BOTH SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAYS AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME
PRETTY SOLID AT A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE TOMORROWS STRATUS
BURNOFF COULD STICK AROUND A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BKN-OVC015 IS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z.
FIRST GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1830Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENTLY OVC009 AT MONTEREY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO AROUND 600
FEET BY 1000Z WITH A PERIOD OF 3SM BR BKN003 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1200
AND 1600Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...A WEAK ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CAN BE GUSTY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: DRP


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 010521
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND AT OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD...ELSEWHERE CONTINUED DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DELTA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
DELTA. THIS HAS LEAD TO COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC VALLEY...BUT
STILL WARM OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AWAY FROM THE TYPICAL DELTA INFLUENCED LOCATIONS. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE IS
NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT A
HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK IS GIVING WAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORCAL IS SPREADING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IS A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM 6 TO 11 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COOLER AIRMASS...ONSHORE FLOW
WITH THE DELTA BREEZE...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WITH
THE MONSOONAL FLOW IS MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID THAN
NORMAL...THOUGH...WHICH IS COUNTERING SOME OF THE COOLING AFFECTS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS A NICELY DEFINED VORTMAX, CLEARLY VISIBLE
ROTATING ON THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA, CURRENT CENTERED AROUND GLENN COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION HAS MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. THE MOST
NOTABLE STORM SO FAR IS A THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST AND TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER BLUE CANYON. THIS
SYSTEM PASSED CLOSE TO THE LOWELL FIRE...BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 31 MPH. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS
STORM...AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH STARTED A NEW WILDFIRE NEAR ALTA. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RAIN WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS...WHICH INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET PROGRESSIVELY MORE WET AS MORE
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE OVERALL AIRMASS COOLS A BIT MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST SHIFTING COASTWARD. A CONTINUED STRONG DELTA
BREEZE WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS AT
OR BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING STILL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME IN CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AREA OF EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTH STATE SHOULD SHIFT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SIERRA CASCADE CREST ON MONDAY. INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THESE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORCAL
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES. DIFFERENCES
GROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS EC PROGS MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND WHILE THE
GFS IS ABOUT 48 HOURS SLOWER. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST BUT
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE DELTA.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGH DESERTS DISSIPATED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
NUDGING INTO THE SOCAL COASTAL AREA WHICH THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ARE GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH. A ROGUE SHOWER COULD PASS THROUGH THE HIGH DESERTS
OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
CONVECTION UNDER THIS PATTERN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SIMILARLY...CONTINUED DRYING AIR
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...SOMEWHAT WARMER BUT ONLY NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A STRENGTHENING MARINE WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE COASTAL STRIP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS.

...REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 141 PM PDT...

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DIGS IT ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO SOCAL...WHILE
THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER
TO THE SE. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TO NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 010400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS ATTM
AND LIKELY SPREADING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z LCLLY
OBSCURING HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGH DESERTS DISSIPATED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY
NUDGING INTO THE SOCAL COASTAL AREA WHICH THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ARE GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH. A ROGUE SHOWER COULD PASS THROUGH THE HIGH DESERTS
OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
CONVECTION UNDER THIS PATTERN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SIMILARLY...CONTINUED DRYING AIR
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS...SOMEWHAT WARMER BUT ONLY NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND A STRENGTHENING MARINE WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR
THE COASTAL STRIP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEYS.

...REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 141 PM PDT...

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DIGS IT ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO SOCAL...WHILE
THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER
TO THE SE. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TO NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 010400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1000-1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS ATTM
AND LIKELY SPREADING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z LCLLY
OBSCURING HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 900 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB



000
FXUS66 KHNX 010411 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE... UPDATED TO REMOVE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST AND SCALED BACK POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL...
THREE RIVERS AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105
DEGREES. TO THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96
AND LOS BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HOLDING AT 5820 METERS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOO COOL AS THEY OVERFORECASTED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HAVE TRENDED THE UPDATED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
FROM TODAY/S OBSERVED HIGHS...BUT SCALED BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 010411 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE... UPDATED TO REMOVE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST AND SCALED BACK POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL...
THREE RIVERS AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105
DEGREES. TO THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96
AND LOS BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HOLDING AT 5820 METERS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOO COOL AS THEY OVERFORECASTED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HAVE TRENDED THE UPDATED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
FROM TODAY/S OBSERVED HIGHS...BUT SCALED BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KMTR 010357
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS DETECTED
NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIP ACTIVITY SINCE EARLY EVENING. A
FORECAST UPDATE WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW VEERS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THUS...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER A POSSIBILITY...AT
LEAST NOT THROUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

THE COOLING TREND THAT GOT UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY CONTINUED TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWED MARINE AIR TO
INFILTRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE LIVERMORE AIRPORT`S HIGH OF 87
TODAY WAS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY`S HIGH OF 107.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT AT A SLOWER PACE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
WEST COAST. ALSO...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
A BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST.

FORT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED PAST 2000 FEET THIS EVENING. WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
NEAR THE OCEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 PM PDT FRIDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER SAN FRANCISCO AND THE NORTH BAY AREA. THE FORT
ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER HOLDING STRONG AT A DEPTH
OF AROUND 2000 FEET. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 54
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND 63 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...SO PRETTY MOIST.
THE MOIST SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND GENTLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE TERMINALS QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS MONTEREY AND SALINAS WILL ALSO SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR WITH BKN-OVC010 IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BY
0700Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO OVC008 BY 1200Z. FIRST
GUESS AT THE MORNING BURN OFF IS 1700Z.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCT-BKN012 AT MONTEREY WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO OVC007 BY AROUND 0300Z AND FURTHER DETERIORATE TO
3SM BR OVC003 BY 0600Z. SALINAS IS ALREADY OVC012 AND CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY... ESPECIALLY AROUND ANGEL ISLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE P