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000
FXUS66 KSGX 011643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
843 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN DRY
AND WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING MUCH OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH...FARTHER TO THE NORTH...LITTLE PRECIP WAS INDICATED. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ENHANCED OVER THE AREA OF RAIN...WITH A TREND
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS AT 8 AM PST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POSSIBLE VORT MAX ABOUT 100 MILES SW OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET FEEDING THE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT MODEL THE PRECIP WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING WELL. FARTHER OFFSHORE...ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS
WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED
JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING INDICATED PW HAD RISEN TO 0.83 INCH. WEAK
SE WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE VEERED WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASED TO OVER
25 KT ABOVE 6K FT. THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 6400 FT...BUT BASED
ON SURFACE OBS IN THE MTNS...FREEZING CONDITIONS WERE CLOSER TO 5500
FT. KNKX CC SHOWS CLOSER TO 5000 FT TO THE NORTH.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LOCAL HIRES MODELS...THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OF MODERATE INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS NE INTO THE MTS. BASED ON
A SNOW LEVEL OF 5K-5.5K FT...EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...BUT REMAIN SCATTERED UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER
APPROACHES THE COAST.

LITTLE ACTIVITY APPEARS DESTINED FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE HIRES LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP THERE AS WELL LATER TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTS...BUT IT APPEARS FOR TODAY ANYWAY...
THIS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MTS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE SUSTAINED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE SUN NIGHT/MON...THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST
COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WELL OFFSHORE...THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 011600Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION. DUE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS...CLOUD
BASES WILL BOUNCE AROUND WITH BKN-OVC BASES BETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT
MSL. LOCAL BASES TO 1000 FT MSL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. VIS RESTRICTIONS
OF 1-4 SM WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND WITHIN AREAS
OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 6000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...800 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE THE OUTER WATERS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-
TO-WATER LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 011641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF SANTA BARBARA THIS MORNING WITH THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINNING TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL
ORIENTATION. ANOTHER SYSTEMS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM CENTERED NEAR THE
ALASKA/CANADA BORDER. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND...CLOUDINESS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING AND
RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE EVIDENT
IN IR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MOHAVE DESERT SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A
GOOD DISTANCE OFFSHORE. THE 300 MB JET MAX WAS 110-120 KTS PER PLOT
DATA AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT. SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. 12Z NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THIS DIVERGENCE
FAIRLY WELL. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FILLING IN OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS FINALLY PUSHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS. 12Z MODELS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN FEATURES AND AS A RESULT WITH THE MAIN
PATTERN OF STORM TOTAL QPF. GREATEST AMOUNT OF QPF WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY...WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHERN
END OF THAT...PLUS A SECONDARY MAXIMUM NEAR AND WEST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WAS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING METRO PHOENIX...ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE RAIN
BEGINS IN EARNEST EARLY MONDAY AND TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING. MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO TRIM POPS EVEN MORE FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP STARTS TODAY. GIVEN THE EAST-WEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES...CONTEMPLATING MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD WATCH TO
DELAY THE ONSET FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS. ALSO
CONTEMPLATING EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREAT AREA FOR FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY FOOTHILL AREAS. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 243 AM MST/143 AM PST...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA TODAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSDL. CIGS
FOR NOW SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8KT FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR...CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 5-6K
FEET. THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE PHOENIX AREA
SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...LOWER CIGS...AND ANY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DROP
TO MVFR BY AROUND NOON AFTER SOME STEADY RAIN MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DUE TO THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS BRIEFLY DEPENDING ON HOW
STEADY THE RAIN ENDS UP BEING. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 011641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF SANTA BARBARA THIS MORNING WITH THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINNING TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL
ORIENTATION. ANOTHER SYSTEMS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM CENTERED NEAR THE
ALASKA/CANADA BORDER. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND...CLOUDINESS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING AND
RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE EVIDENT
IN IR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE MOHAVE DESERT SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A
GOOD DISTANCE OFFSHORE. THE 300 MB JET MAX WAS 110-120 KTS PER PLOT
DATA AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE MOHAVE DESERT. SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. 12Z NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THIS DIVERGENCE
FAIRLY WELL. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FILLING IN OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS FINALLY PUSHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS. 12Z MODELS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN FEATURES AND AS A RESULT WITH THE MAIN
PATTERN OF STORM TOTAL QPF. GREATEST AMOUNT OF QPF WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY...WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHERN
END OF THAT...PLUS A SECONDARY MAXIMUM NEAR AND WEST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHICH WAS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING METRO PHOENIX...ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE RAIN
BEGINS IN EARNEST EARLY MONDAY AND TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING. MIGHT
EVEN NEED TO TRIM POPS EVEN MORE FOR TODAY. FURTHER WEST...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP STARTS TODAY. GIVEN THE EAST-WEST TIMING
DIFFERENCES...CONTEMPLATING MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLOOD WATCH TO
DELAY THE ONSET FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS. ALSO
CONTEMPLATING EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREAT AREA FOR FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY FOOTHILL AREAS. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 243 AM MST/143 AM PST...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA TODAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSDL. CIGS
FOR NOW SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8KT FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR...CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 5-6K
FEET. THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE PHOENIX AREA
SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...LOWER CIGS...AND ANY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DROP
TO MVFR BY AROUND NOON AFTER SOME STEADY RAIN MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DUE TO THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS BRIEFLY DEPENDING ON HOW
STEADY THE RAIN ENDS UP BEING. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 011254
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
454 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT WEAKENS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...BUT SHOWERY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE CLOSER TO THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY
WILL BE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST COULD CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 011000Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TODAY. OCCASIONAL CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VIS 1-3SM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL VIS 3-5SM UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT
MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...200 AM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WED AND THU.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 011226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Lingering light showers along Sierra Crest this morning.
Otherwise, a dry Sunday with breezy northerly winds into the
afternoon. A second wave of wet weather arrives Monday with
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and light mountain snow.
Drier and warmer Tuesday onward.

&&

.Discussion...
Radar showing that shower activity has significantly diminished
from yesterday as the storm has tracked into SoCal. Some light
snow showers are near the Sierra Crest south of Lake Tahoe which
will dissipate later today. Daytime highs will be near to slightly
above normal for our region with valley highs in the mid to upper
60s and mountain highs in the 40s and 50s. Breezy northerly winds
along the western Sacramento valley this morning into afternoon,
but they will lessen by this evening.

A secondary wave of light precipitation will track southward
across CA on Monday. The models have recently showed the track
hugging the coastline instead of coming straight over interior
NorCal as before. Thus, have lowered the chance of precipitation
for this Monday event. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft on
Monday, but snow accumulation is forecast to be quite
light...parts of the Sierra could see around an inch.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, warmer and dry with daytime highs
going a little above normal and light winds.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Medium range models show dry weather through this coming weekend
as upper ridging builds over NorCal. Winds are expected to be
relatively light and terrain driven. High temperatures in the
Central Valley are expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

Extended models continue to hint at a trough slowly drifting
eastward near NorCal mid to late next week (11th to 13th
time frame).     JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low moves into SoCal today. Increasing surface pressure
gradient from MFR-SAC is generating breezier northerly boundary
layer winds (SFC-030). No fog except some shallow fog in eastern
Valley south of Beale AFB. Some scattered low to mid clouds
(bases 040 to 080) today southward of Sacramento area.   JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 011209
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL
FALL AS LOW AS 4000 FEET. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EXITING. A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS LATER MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER POINT CONCEPTION. IT IS SWINGING A
NICE VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA FROM SANTA BARBARA TO LOS ANGELES.
THIS VORT LOBE IS SPAWNING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE SPRINGS FIRE AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WAS ISSUED DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND WILL NOT EXIT THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPIN LOBES OF PVA AND NVA OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY VARIABLE FORECAST
AT TIMES OF PVA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT WHEN
THE NVA IS MOVING THROUGH THERE WILL NO RAIN AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT SLO
AND SBA COUNTY WILL STILL SEE SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AT TIMES. THE 500 MB TEMPS AT THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ABOUT
-28 DEGREES C WHICH IS COOL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 4000 FEET AND LOCALLY
DOWN TO 3500 FEET.

RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE. AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 0.10-0.25"
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MOUNTAINS 0.50-1.00" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO 8-12" OF SNOW IS ABOVE 6500 FEET...WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET.

HOT ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO TAKE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC AND FURTHER AWAY FROM LAND. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAND. THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SHOWERY AND RAINFALL WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FORM
LOCATION TO LOCATION.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SCOOT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY AND NIGHT AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ABOUT 3 DEGREES OF WARMING ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL KICK OFF A ROUND OF DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH PLENTY OF UPPER 70S AND A
SMATTERING OF LOWER 80S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1115Z

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IN TERMS OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...CONDS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BEING
PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MVFR
CIGS THRU THE PERIOD IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MVFR
CIGS THRU THE PERIOD IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...CK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011209
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL
FALL AS LOW AS 4000 FEET. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EXITING. A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW ON ITS HEELS LATER MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER POINT CONCEPTION. IT IS SWINGING A
NICE VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA FROM SANTA BARBARA TO LOS ANGELES.
THIS VORT LOBE IS SPAWNING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE SPRINGS FIRE AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WAS ISSUED DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND WILL NOT EXIT THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPIN LOBES OF PVA AND NVA OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY VARIABLE FORECAST
AT TIMES OF PVA THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT WHEN
THE NVA IS MOVING THROUGH THERE WILL NO RAIN AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT SLO
AND SBA COUNTY WILL STILL SEE SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AT TIMES. THE 500 MB TEMPS AT THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ABOUT
-28 DEGREES C WHICH IS COOL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 4000 FEET AND LOCALLY
DOWN TO 3500 FEET.

RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE. AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 0.10-0.25"
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MOUNTAINS 0.50-1.00" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO 8-12" OF SNOW IS ABOVE 6500 FEET...WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET.

HOT ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO TAKE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC AND FURTHER AWAY FROM LAND. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAND. THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. LIKE TODAYS SYSTEM THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SHOWERY AND RAINFALL WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FORM
LOCATION TO LOCATION.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SCOOT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY AND NIGHT AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ABOUT 3 DEGREES OF WARMING ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL KICK OFF A ROUND OF DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A
WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH PLENTY OF UPPER 70S AND A
SMATTERING OF LOWER 80S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1115Z

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IN TERMS OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...CONDS WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BEING
PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MVFR
CIGS THRU THE PERIOD IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MVFR
CIGS THRU THE PERIOD IS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...CK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 011208
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
408 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDES
DOWN THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION
LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND
30S...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE LOCATIONS WHERE WIND
HAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND/OR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAIN IN THE
40S. STILL EXPECTING SHELTERED COASTAL LOCATIONS TO SETTLE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S THIS MORNING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FROST
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT EVEN THOUGH FROST MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN TRINITY AND EASTERN MENDOCINO
COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS IF SHOWERS FORM AT ALL.

CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN OUR
CURRENTLY ACTIVE GROWING SEASON ZONES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY NOT
REACH MENDOCINO COUNTY FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT TODAY.

THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A NEAR REPEAT OF
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING MAY BE IN STORE...THOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN LESS POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STILL...OPTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO THE GFS-BC GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT CONSIDERING
THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN IN MENDOCINO
COUNTY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH 60S IN OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER NW CALIFORNIA YET CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER, PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES. /KML


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL EASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TODAY AS THE
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWS THE COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. NEAR SHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A TREND OF
THE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT THE GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
THIS MORNING LEAVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THE INNER
WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY BUT I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE SEA STATE REMAINS MARGINAL THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING. THIS LULL WILL REMAIN SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO THE
OUTER WATERS ON MONDAY. WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING AT THIS POINT IN TIME. ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS IMPACT, HOWEVER,
INSTINCT IS SAYING THAT MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING IT ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. NEVER THE LESS, SOUTH FACING BEACHES
AND ANCHORAGES MAY NOTICE ITS PRESENCE BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. OTHERWISE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS AND SEAS TO SETTLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ001-002.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ410-450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 011203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:19 PM PST SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED..BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES IN SAN BENITO
AND INLAND MONTEREY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. EXPECT
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL TODAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 60S
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS IMPULSE BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE COAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...BUT MAINLY FROM SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN APPROACHING COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BEGINNING MIDWEEK WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF
POINT ARGUELLO. THIS IS PLACING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA IN A ZONE OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
STRATUS FROM FORMING TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH MVFR
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
MVFR CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:19 PM PST SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED..BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES IN SAN BENITO
AND INLAND MONTEREY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. EXPECT
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL TODAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 60S
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS IMPULSE BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE COAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...BUT MAINLY FROM SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN APPROACHING COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BEGINNING MIDWEEK WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF
POINT ARGUELLO. THIS IS PLACING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA IN A ZONE OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
STRATUS FROM FORMING TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH MVFR
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
MVFR CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 011203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:19 PM PST SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED..BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES IN SAN BENITO
AND INLAND MONTEREY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. EXPECT
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL TODAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 60S
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS IMPULSE BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE COAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...BUT MAINLY FROM SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN APPROACHING COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BEGINNING MIDWEEK WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF
POINT ARGUELLO. THIS IS PLACING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA IN A ZONE OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
STRATUS FROM FORMING TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH MVFR
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
MVFR CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 011203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:19 PM PST SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED..BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES IN SAN BENITO
AND INLAND MONTEREY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. EXPECT
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL TODAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 60S
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS IMPULSE BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE COAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...BUT MAINLY FROM SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN APPROACHING COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BEGINNING MIDWEEK WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:04 AM PST SUNDAY...THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE
IMAGE IS SHOWING YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF
POINT ARGUELLO. THIS IS PLACING THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA IN A ZONE OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT
STRATUS FROM FORMING TODAY. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH MVFR
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
MVFR CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO A GENTLE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
442 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA TODAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSDL. CIGS
FOR NOW SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8KT FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR...CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 5-6K
FEET. THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE PHOENIX AREA
SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...LOWER CIGS...AND ANY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DROP
TO MVFR BY AROUND NOON AFTER SOME STEADY RAIN MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DUE TO THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS BRIEFLY DEPENDING ON HOW
STEADY THE RAIN ENDS UP BEING. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING..

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 011143 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
443 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA TODAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSDL. CIGS
FOR NOW SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8KT FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR...CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 5-6K
FEET. THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE PHOENIX AREA
SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...LOWER CIGS...AND ANY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DROP
TO MVFR BY AROUND NOON AFTER SOME STEADY RAIN MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DUE TO THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS BRIEFLY DEPENDING ON HOW
STEADY THE RAIN ENDS UP BEING. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 011143 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
443 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA TODAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSDL. CIGS
FOR NOW SHOULD STAY ABOVE 8KT FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR...CIGS WOULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 5-6K
FEET. THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THE PHOENIX AREA
SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN...LOWER CIGS...AND ANY RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DROP
TO MVFR BY AROUND NOON AFTER SOME STEADY RAIN MOVES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DUE TO THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS BRIEFLY DEPENDING ON HOW
STEADY THE RAIN ENDS UP BEING. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS66 KMTR 011119
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
319 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING
MAINLY IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:19 PM PST SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED..BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW ECHOES MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES IN SAN BENITO
AND INLAND MONTEREY COUNTIES OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. EXPECT
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PARENT
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL TODAY WITH UPPER 60S AND 60S
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DISTRICT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS IMPULSE BUT MOST
OF THE MODELS TRACK THE LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE COAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...BUT MAINLY FROM SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN APPROACHING COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BEGINNING MIDWEEK WITH 60S AND 70S EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:20 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. COLDER TEMPS AND
CLEARING IS THE THEME FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TIPPING THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT UP TO
APPROX 5-7 MB TONIGHT BUT RELAXES BACK TO NEUTRAL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND PRESENTLY NOT INDICATED IN THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...AGREE
WITH PREV DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. NIGHTS ARE STILL MARGINALLY
LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED FOG PATCHES
BUT NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED IN 06Z TAF. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GRADUAL CLEARING AND VFR FORECASTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PST SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY LEAVING BEHIND LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE
SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 011108
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
308 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE
FAVORED REGION OF DEFORMATION FORCING HAS DEPARTED LEAVING WEAKLY
FORCED AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT NEAR PYRAMID LAKE AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EVIDENT NEAR LEE
VINING VIA WEB CAM THIS MORNING BUT RADAR ECHOES ARE LARGELY ABSENT
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SHOWERS WHICH THE RADAR BEAM
OVERSHOOTS AT THIS DISTANCE. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM ALPINE
INTO MONO COUNTY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MINERAL COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS INCREASE SURFACE
INSTABILITY.

CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, TAKING FAVORABLE FORCING TO THE WEST
AS A RESULT. MAINLY WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SIERRA ALLOWING SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE THIS SYSTEM, ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS TUESDAY APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WEDNESDAY (NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE) WITH RESIDUAL EASTERLY FLOW
TO HOLD DOWN MIXING SLIGHTLY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
FOR LATE WEEK, HIGHS JUMP TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA (~KBIH) AND CENTRAL NEVADA (~KTPH).
EASTERLY WRAP-AROUND FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHSN TO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA (TAHOE SOUTH TO LEE VINING) AND FAR WESTERN
NEVADA. ANY BRIEF -SHSN CAPABLE OF BRINGING VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM.
OTHERWISE THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD DECKS BETWEEN 080-100 MSL
(LOCALLY 070-080 MSL) IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TO
BRING TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.

THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT MAINLY INTO MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES FOR CONTINUED TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND SCT -SHSN THERE, WITH
SCT-BKN VFR DECKS FARTHER NORTH TO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT -SHSN AND -SHRASN
BLO 5,000 FT MSL ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 011108
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
308 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE
FAVORED REGION OF DEFORMATION FORCING HAS DEPARTED LEAVING WEAKLY
FORCED AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT NEAR PYRAMID LAKE AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EVIDENT NEAR LEE
VINING VIA WEB CAM THIS MORNING BUT RADAR ECHOES ARE LARGELY ABSENT
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SHOWERS WHICH THE RADAR BEAM
OVERSHOOTS AT THIS DISTANCE. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM ALPINE
INTO MONO COUNTY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MINERAL COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS INCREASE SURFACE
INSTABILITY.

CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, TAKING FAVORABLE FORCING TO THE WEST
AS A RESULT. MAINLY WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SIERRA ALLOWING SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE THIS SYSTEM, ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS TUESDAY APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WEDNESDAY (NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE) WITH RESIDUAL EASTERLY FLOW
TO HOLD DOWN MIXING SLIGHTLY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
FOR LATE WEEK, HIGHS JUMP TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO EASTERN CALIFORNIA (~KBIH) AND CENTRAL NEVADA (~KTPH).
EASTERLY WRAP-AROUND FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHSN TO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA (TAHOE SOUTH TO LEE VINING) AND FAR WESTERN
NEVADA. ANY BRIEF -SHSN CAPABLE OF BRINGING VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM.
OTHERWISE THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD DECKS BETWEEN 080-100 MSL
(LOCALLY 070-080 MSL) IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA TO
BRING TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.

THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT MAINLY INTO MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES FOR CONTINUED TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND SCT -SHSN THERE, WITH
SCT-BKN VFR DECKS FARTHER NORTH TO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT -SHSN AND -SHRASN
BLO 5,000 FT MSL ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 011100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KINGS/NORTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A
SERIES OF VORTICITIES REVOLVING AROUND THE LOW CENTER GIVE THE LOW
AN ELONGATED /WEST-EAST/ APPEARANCE AND MAKE THE EXACT POSITION HARD
TO DEFINE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA...AND ONE SHOWER THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY HAD MOVED INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY. OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AND
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA BARBARA THROUGH LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD KERN COUNTY AS OF
1015Z /0215 PST/ THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT FOR
TODAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 18Z
/1000 PST/ THIS MORNING...AND THEN STALL THERE THE REST OF TODAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW ELONGATING ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS...THE 06Z NAM-12 HAS A PEAK SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OF 480
JOULES/KG OVER KINGS COUNTY AT 21Z /1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX OF -2.8...500-MB TEMPERATURE OF 27.6 C
AND 850-MB THETA-E OF 297.6 K. SPC HAS MOST OF THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THIS LOOKS ON TRACK.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT THE SNOW LEVEL ABOVE THE
TEJON AND TEHACHAPI PASSES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THE FLOW SHIFTS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AND SNOW WILL FALL ON THE HIGHER POINTS OF THE PASSES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEP AS IT DROPS
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL DEVELOP A LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE WEST OF MONTEREY BAY BY 18Z MONDAY AND OFF POINT
CONCEPTION BY 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/. THE TRACK OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE FIRST AND THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON RAISES THE RISK OF
MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN KERN DESERT BEGINNING AT 18Z MONDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OFF SAN DIEGO BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. LOCAL MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT...AND IFR
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD TSTORMS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953
KFAT 03-03       80:1994     45:1976     55:1905     26:1966

KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
KBFL 03-03       84:1987     47:1976     55:1930     20:1917

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 011100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KINGS/NORTHWESTERN KERN COUNTY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A
SERIES OF VORTICITIES REVOLVING AROUND THE LOW CENTER GIVE THE LOW
AN ELONGATED /WEST-EAST/ APPEARANCE AND MAKE THE EXACT POSITION HARD
TO DEFINE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WFO HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA...AND ONE SHOWER THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN
FRESNO COUNTY HAD MOVED INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY. OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AND
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SANTA BARBARA THROUGH LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD KERN COUNTY AS OF
1015Z /0215 PST/ THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT FOR
TODAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 18Z
/1000 PST/ THIS MORNING...AND THEN STALL THERE THE REST OF TODAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW ELONGATING ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS...THE 06Z NAM-12 HAS A PEAK SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE OF 480
JOULES/KG OVER KINGS COUNTY AT 21Z /1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX OF -2.8...500-MB TEMPERATURE OF 27.6 C
AND 850-MB THETA-E OF 297.6 K. SPC HAS MOST OF THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THIS LOOKS ON TRACK.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TEHACHAPI AND SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT THE SNOW LEVEL ABOVE THE
TEJON AND TEHACHAPI PASSES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THE FLOW SHIFTS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AND SNOW WILL FALL ON THE HIGHER POINTS OF THE PASSES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEP AS IT DROPS
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL DEVELOP A LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE WEST OF MONTEREY BAY BY 18Z MONDAY AND OFF POINT
CONCEPTION BY 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/. THE TRACK OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE FIRST AND THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON RAISES THE RISK OF
MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN KERN DESERT BEGINNING AT 18Z MONDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OFF SAN DIEGO BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. LOCAL MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT...AND IFR
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD TSTORMS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953
KFAT 03-03       80:1994     45:1976     55:1905     26:1966

KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
KBFL 03-03       84:1987     47:1976     55:1930     20:1917

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 010943
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY RETROGRADING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY AFTER MUCH
ANTICIPATION...PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 07Z. MOST THE THE PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE
GROUND IS STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF PHOENIX BUT
NONETHELESS IT`S A GOOD SIGN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING TO
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT`S BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TAPPING INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. RAIN SHADOWING DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO AND I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE AND THE PAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE SREF INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL COME AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THUS I TRIMMED POPS A BIT
FOR TODAY. ONLY THINKING WE WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AROUND
THE METRO...CERTAINLY LOOKING AT HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS NORTH/WEST/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE DELAYED A BIT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL GET KICKED THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW BY A RAPIDLY APPROACHING SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE 500MB TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES /AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/ WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. AS FOR STORM
TOTAL PRECIP VALUES...ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 0.75 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 WITH CLOSER TO 1-1.5 INCHES IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY TO
WICKENBURG...CAVE CREEK...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL QPF BASED ON THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH INTACT.

THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH ON TUESDAY HAVE
BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH DEBATE DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE MAP THIS MORNING.
NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THE
QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER ON TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF
THE ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON THIS DRIER SOLUTION.

FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX VALLEY ARE EXPECTED...WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER
PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. THEREFORE SCT CLDS BASED NEAR 4 THSD
AGL WITH BKN-OVC CLDS BETWEEN 5-6 THSD AGL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z SUN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM 14Z-20Z SUN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 16Z SUN...SCT CLDS NEAR 6 THSD AGL..BKN CLDS 10-12 THSD AGL.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FROM 16Z SUN TO 20Z SUN...
CLDS LOWERING TO BKN 6 THSD AGL WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KMTR 010622
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1022 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW FOR MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PST SATURDAY... A COLD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER
PHENOMENA TODAY WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ATYPICAL FOR SYSTEMS NEAR
SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS RATHER UNSTABLE FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY... WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 TO -5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION TRIGGERED EASILY TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW SHIFTED
IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED BY THE AFTERNOON... WITH A HANDFUL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND EVEN A PAIR OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS.

THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO NEAR DALY CITY AROUND 630PM. THIS STORM HAD A VIL
DENSITY GREATER THAN 4GRAMS PER METER CUBED... WHICH IS OFTEN
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL. REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
AND HAIL APPROACHING THIS SIZE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS CELL...ALONG
WITH A PHOTOGENIC SHELF FEATURE. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ALSO
REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF SALINAS BY A REPUTABLE TV
METEOROLOGIST AROUND 430PM.

THERE WAS SOME UNDERSTANDABLE CONFUSION ABOUT THE NATURE OF WHAT FELL
FROM THE SKY NEAR SAN JOSE. MANY LOCALS INITIALLY THOUGHT SNOW
FELL NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF EVERGREEN OUTSIDE OF SAN JOSE...
HOWEVER ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO SOMETHING ELSE... HAIL. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL IS THE TRUE CULPRIT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH UPDRAFTS CAN GENERATE HAIL ANYWHERE... BUT THERE ARE LIMITING
FACTORS ON JUST HOW LARGE THE HAIL CAN GROW BASED ON THE
ENVIRONMENT AND TOPOGRAPHY. CALIFORNIAS STORMS ARE TOO DWARFED BY
TOPOGRAPHY AND AIR MASSES TO GENERATE MASSIVE HAILSTONES.
INSTEAD... A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SMALLER HAIL TYPICALLY FALLS
INSTEAD. IN CALIFORNIAS SACRAMENTO VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN WELL OBSERVED DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WHICH
OFTEN BLANKET A SURFACE IN A WHITE LAYER DECEPTIVELY SIMILAR TO
HOURS OLD SNOW. THE TELL TALE SIGNS THAT HAIL AND NOT SNOW FELL
TODAY ARE THESE: 1. SNOW LEVELS WERE AT OR AROUND 4000 FEET. MT
HAMILITON AT 4200 FEET PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HOWEVER
THE AREA IN QUESTION RANGES FROM AROUND 250 TO 750 FEET... SO IT
WAS FAR BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL. 2. THE HAIL WAS LOCATED IN A RATHER
CONFINED AREA FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC PERSPECTIVE. THAT IS... IT WAS
ROUGHLY THE WIDTH OF A HAIL SHAFT FROM A LARGE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. PHOTOS SHOW A ROW OF HILLS BLANKETED WHITE... BUT
THE TALLER HILLS WERE STILL GREEN. SNOW WOULDVE BLANKETED THE
HIGHER HILLS AS WELL. 3. THE PHOTOS SHOW ALL THE HAIL AT THE
GROUND OR ON ROOFS... BUT NOT IN TREES OR SHRUBS. SNOW IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO COAT SETTLE ON ALL SURFACES... INCLUDING SLOPED SURFACES
AND LEAVES... BUT ALL PHOTOS SHOW THAT THE HAIL WAS TOO HEAVY AND
FELL THROUGH LEAVES AND STRAIGHT THE GROUND OR ONTO ANOTHER FLAT
SURFACE SUCH AS A ROOF. 4. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO PERSIST. HAIL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MELT
AND LIKE GLACIERS CAN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN DELICATE CRYSTALLINE SNOW. 5. THE TEXTURE IS THAT OF MANY
TINY ROUND BALLS ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER. THIS IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FLUFFY SNOW FLAKES.

KMUX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND SOUTHWARD AFTER
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CARMEL VALLEY PICKED
UP NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TODAYS SHOWERS AND WAS AMONG THE
HIGHEST OF REPORTING STATIONS. AMOUNTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
HALF AN INCH WERE THE MOST WIDELY REPORTED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT MIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WHEN A SECOND
COLD SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO TODAYS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN WHAT THE AREA RECEIVED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:20 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. COLDER TEMPS AND
CLEARING IS THE THEME FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TIPPING THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT UP TO
APPROX 5-7 MB TONIGHT BUT RELAXES BACK TO NEUTRAL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND PRESENTLY NOT INDICATED IN THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...AGREE
WITH PREV DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. NIGHTS ARE STILL MARGINALLY
LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED FOG PATCHES
BUT NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED IN 06Z TAF. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GRADUAL CLEARING AND VFR FORECASTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:21 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PASSES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 010622
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1022 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW FOR MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PST SATURDAY... A COLD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER
PHENOMENA TODAY WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ATYPICAL FOR SYSTEMS NEAR
SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS RATHER UNSTABLE FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY... WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 TO -5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION TRIGGERED EASILY TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW SHIFTED
IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED BY THE AFTERNOON... WITH A HANDFUL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND EVEN A PAIR OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS.

THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO NEAR DALY CITY AROUND 630PM. THIS STORM HAD A VIL
DENSITY GREATER THAN 4GRAMS PER METER CUBED... WHICH IS OFTEN
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL. REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
AND HAIL APPROACHING THIS SIZE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS CELL...ALONG
WITH A PHOTOGENIC SHELF FEATURE. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ALSO
REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF SALINAS BY A REPUTABLE TV
METEOROLOGIST AROUND 430PM.

THERE WAS SOME UNDERSTANDABLE CONFUSION ABOUT THE NATURE OF WHAT FELL
FROM THE SKY NEAR SAN JOSE. MANY LOCALS INITIALLY THOUGHT SNOW
FELL NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF EVERGREEN OUTSIDE OF SAN JOSE...
HOWEVER ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO SOMETHING ELSE... HAIL. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL IS THE TRUE CULPRIT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH UPDRAFTS CAN GENERATE HAIL ANYWHERE... BUT THERE ARE LIMITING
FACTORS ON JUST HOW LARGE THE HAIL CAN GROW BASED ON THE
ENVIRONMENT AND TOPOGRAPHY. CALIFORNIAS STORMS ARE TOO DWARFED BY
TOPOGRAPHY AND AIR MASSES TO GENERATE MASSIVE HAILSTONES.
INSTEAD... A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SMALLER HAIL TYPICALLY FALLS
INSTEAD. IN CALIFORNIAS SACRAMENTO VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN WELL OBSERVED DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WHICH
OFTEN BLANKET A SURFACE IN A WHITE LAYER DECEPTIVELY SIMILAR TO
HOURS OLD SNOW. THE TELL TALE SIGNS THAT HAIL AND NOT SNOW FELL
TODAY ARE THESE: 1. SNOW LEVELS WERE AT OR AROUND 4000 FEET. MT
HAMILITON AT 4200 FEET PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HOWEVER
THE AREA IN QUESTION RANGES FROM AROUND 250 TO 750 FEET... SO IT
WAS FAR BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL. 2. THE HAIL WAS LOCATED IN A RATHER
CONFINED AREA FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC PERSPECTIVE. THAT IS... IT WAS
ROUGHLY THE WIDTH OF A HAIL SHAFT FROM A LARGE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. PHOTOS SHOW A ROW OF HILLS BLANKETED WHITE... BUT
THE TALLER HILLS WERE STILL GREEN. SNOW WOULDVE BLANKETED THE
HIGHER HILLS AS WELL. 3. THE PHOTOS SHOW ALL THE HAIL AT THE
GROUND OR ON ROOFS... BUT NOT IN TREES OR SHRUBS. SNOW IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO COAT SETTLE ON ALL SURFACES... INCLUDING SLOPED SURFACES
AND LEAVES... BUT ALL PHOTOS SHOW THAT THE HAIL WAS TOO HEAVY AND
FELL THROUGH LEAVES AND STRAIGHT THE GROUND OR ONTO ANOTHER FLAT
SURFACE SUCH AS A ROOF. 4. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO PERSIST. HAIL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MELT
AND LIKE GLACIERS CAN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN DELICATE CRYSTALLINE SNOW. 5. THE TEXTURE IS THAT OF MANY
TINY ROUND BALLS ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER. THIS IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FLUFFY SNOW FLAKES.

KMUX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND SOUTHWARD AFTER
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CARMEL VALLEY PICKED
UP NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TODAYS SHOWERS AND WAS AMONG THE
HIGHEST OF REPORTING STATIONS. AMOUNTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
HALF AN INCH WERE THE MOST WIDELY REPORTED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT MIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WHEN A SECOND
COLD SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO TODAYS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN WHAT THE AREA RECEIVED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:20 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. COLDER TEMPS AND
CLEARING IS THE THEME FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TIPPING THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT UP TO
APPROX 5-7 MB TONIGHT BUT RELAXES BACK TO NEUTRAL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND PRESENTLY NOT INDICATED IN THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...AGREE
WITH PREV DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. NIGHTS ARE STILL MARGINALLY
LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED FOG PATCHES
BUT NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED IN 06Z TAF. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GRADUAL CLEARING AND VFR FORECASTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:21 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PASSES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 010622
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1022 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW FOR MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PST SATURDAY... A COLD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER
PHENOMENA TODAY WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ATYPICAL FOR SYSTEMS NEAR
SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS RATHER UNSTABLE FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY... WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 TO -5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION TRIGGERED EASILY TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW SHIFTED
IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED BY THE AFTERNOON... WITH A HANDFUL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND EVEN A PAIR OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS.

THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO NEAR DALY CITY AROUND 630PM. THIS STORM HAD A VIL
DENSITY GREATER THAN 4GRAMS PER METER CUBED... WHICH IS OFTEN
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL. REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
AND HAIL APPROACHING THIS SIZE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS CELL...ALONG
WITH A PHOTOGENIC SHELF FEATURE. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ALSO
REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF SALINAS BY A REPUTABLE TV
METEOROLOGIST AROUND 430PM.

THERE WAS SOME UNDERSTANDABLE CONFUSION ABOUT THE NATURE OF WHAT FELL
FROM THE SKY NEAR SAN JOSE. MANY LOCALS INITIALLY THOUGHT SNOW
FELL NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF EVERGREEN OUTSIDE OF SAN JOSE...
HOWEVER ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO SOMETHING ELSE... HAIL. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL IS THE TRUE CULPRIT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH UPDRAFTS CAN GENERATE HAIL ANYWHERE... BUT THERE ARE LIMITING
FACTORS ON JUST HOW LARGE THE HAIL CAN GROW BASED ON THE
ENVIRONMENT AND TOPOGRAPHY. CALIFORNIAS STORMS ARE TOO DWARFED BY
TOPOGRAPHY AND AIR MASSES TO GENERATE MASSIVE HAILSTONES.
INSTEAD... A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SMALLER HAIL TYPICALLY FALLS
INSTEAD. IN CALIFORNIAS SACRAMENTO VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN WELL OBSERVED DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WHICH
OFTEN BLANKET A SURFACE IN A WHITE LAYER DECEPTIVELY SIMILAR TO
HOURS OLD SNOW. THE TELL TALE SIGNS THAT HAIL AND NOT SNOW FELL
TODAY ARE THESE: 1. SNOW LEVELS WERE AT OR AROUND 4000 FEET. MT
HAMILITON AT 4200 FEET PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HOWEVER
THE AREA IN QUESTION RANGES FROM AROUND 250 TO 750 FEET... SO IT
WAS FAR BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL. 2. THE HAIL WAS LOCATED IN A RATHER
CONFINED AREA FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC PERSPECTIVE. THAT IS... IT WAS
ROUGHLY THE WIDTH OF A HAIL SHAFT FROM A LARGE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. PHOTOS SHOW A ROW OF HILLS BLANKETED WHITE... BUT
THE TALLER HILLS WERE STILL GREEN. SNOW WOULDVE BLANKETED THE
HIGHER HILLS AS WELL. 3. THE PHOTOS SHOW ALL THE HAIL AT THE
GROUND OR ON ROOFS... BUT NOT IN TREES OR SHRUBS. SNOW IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO COAT SETTLE ON ALL SURFACES... INCLUDING SLOPED SURFACES
AND LEAVES... BUT ALL PHOTOS SHOW THAT THE HAIL WAS TOO HEAVY AND
FELL THROUGH LEAVES AND STRAIGHT THE GROUND OR ONTO ANOTHER FLAT
SURFACE SUCH AS A ROOF. 4. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO PERSIST. HAIL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MELT
AND LIKE GLACIERS CAN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN DELICATE CRYSTALLINE SNOW. 5. THE TEXTURE IS THAT OF MANY
TINY ROUND BALLS ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER. THIS IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FLUFFY SNOW FLAKES.

KMUX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND SOUTHWARD AFTER
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CARMEL VALLEY PICKED
UP NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TODAYS SHOWERS AND WAS AMONG THE
HIGHEST OF REPORTING STATIONS. AMOUNTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
HALF AN INCH WERE THE MOST WIDELY REPORTED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT MIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WHEN A SECOND
COLD SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO TODAYS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN WHAT THE AREA RECEIVED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:20 PM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. COLDER TEMPS AND
CLEARING IS THE THEME FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TIPPING THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT UP TO
APPROX 5-7 MB TONIGHT BUT RELAXES BACK TO NEUTRAL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND PRESENTLY NOT INDICATED IN THE 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...AGREE
WITH PREV DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. NIGHTS ARE STILL MARGINALLY
LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED FOG PATCHES
BUT NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED IN 06Z TAF. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR FORECAST.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GRADUAL CLEARING AND VFR FORECASTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:21 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PASSES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KSTO 010555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Showers dissipate tonight and Sunday. Then a second wave of wet
weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong cyclonic flow will continue over the Srn portion of our CWA
as upper low center continues off the Santa Barbara coast through
Sun. Radar continues to show a band of showers moving SWwd across
Wrn NV and into our CWA where downslope flow eventually erodes them
in the foothills. High resolution QPFs indicate the precip band will
be diminishing over the Siernev south of the Tahoe area tonite and
will let advsry expire. However...this pattern will continue on Sun
although QPFs will be lighter than today. On Sunday shower chances
will mainly be over the mountains with the valley likely staying dry
other than a stray shower chance over the Northern San Joaquin
Valley.

Over the Nrn portion of the CWA...the flow is transitioning to
anticyclonic and subsidence will be eroding clouds there. N to NE
pressure gradients will be increasing slightly overnite...leading to
katabatic wind effects over our Nrn zones.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...
Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in snow shwrs over Siernev til arnd 09z. Sn lvls
arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...none.


&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 010527
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FILLING THE RADAR BEAM THIS EVENING BUT
RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SO FAR. TOTALS RANGE FROM A
A LOW OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TO A
HIGH OF A HALF-INCH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A PRECIP
SUMMARY IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE.

SNOW WAS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET. 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS EXTENDED WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALL THE WAY
PAST PT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SO-CAL TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER PT
CONCEPTION SUNDAY...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOCAL. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPIATION SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WHEN
THE TRAILING 500 MB COLD POOL AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TAKEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ITS VORT MAX FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA TUESDAY. THIS
WESTERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER-WATER AND
ONLY GRAZE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STALLED
CLOSED LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010414Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC
CLOUDS LAYERS BETWEEN 2000 AND 7000 FT MSL CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING OVER AND  WEST OF THE MTNS. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL
CIGS 1000-1500 FT MSL AND VIS 3SM OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

DESERTS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGH DESERT. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 7000 FT MSL
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010523
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DOWN TO LOWER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE EXITING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON ITS HEELS ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT...AND WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...DOWN TO -28 DEG C LATER TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WHICH
WERE NEAR 5000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR 4000
FEET TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT LOWER LEVELS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON SUN
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF OF SBA COUNTY ON MON THEN MOVE SE MON NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING INTO NRN BAJA ON TUE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DECENT CAPE
(200-600 J/KG) AND CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THRU
SUN EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FOUR COUNTY AREA WILL BE ON SUN AFTERNOON...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MON INTO MON EVENING AS THE
SECOND UPPER LOW PASSES BY THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE 0.15 TO 0.30 INCH FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND UP
TO 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU MON TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET. THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500
FEET...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 18
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VENTURA COUNTY. MUCH LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD FALL ON MON. WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA MTNS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXWSWLOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...BUT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO ALL AREAS THRU THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN THRU
TUE...ALTHO THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0025Z.

AT 2355Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THRU THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010523
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DOWN TO LOWER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE EXITING. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER STORM SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON ITS HEELS ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT...AND WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN...DOWN TO -28 DEG C LATER TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WHICH
WERE NEAR 5000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR 4000
FEET TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT LOWER LEVELS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON SUN
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF OF SBA COUNTY ON MON THEN MOVE SE MON NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING INTO NRN BAJA ON TUE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DECENT CAPE
(200-600 J/KG) AND CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THRU
SUN EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FOUR COUNTY AREA WILL BE ON SUN AFTERNOON...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MON INTO MON EVENING AS THE
SECOND UPPER LOW PASSES BY THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE 0.15 TO 0.30 INCH FOR
THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1.00 INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS...AND UP
TO 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE THRU MON TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET. THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500
FEET...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 18
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VENTURA COUNTY. MUCH LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD FALL ON MON. WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE L.A./VTU/SBA MTNS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE (LAXWSWLOX) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...BUT DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO ALL AREAS THRU THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN THRU
TUE...ALTHO THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0025Z.

AT 2355Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THRU THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. A
SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 010450
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
INTO TOMORROW FOR MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:45 PM PST SATURDAY... A COLD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER
PHENOMENA TODAY WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ATYPICAL FOR SYSTEMS NEAR
SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS RATHER UNSTABLE FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY... WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -2 TO -5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION TRIGGERED EASILY TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW SHIFTED
IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED BY THE AFTERNOON... WITH A HANDFUL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND EVEN A PAIR OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS.

THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO NEAR DALY CITY AROUND 630PM. THIS STORM HAD A VIL
DENSITY GREATER THAN 4GRAMS PER METER CUBED... WHICH IS OFTEN
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL. REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
AND HAIL APPROACHING THIS SIZE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS CELL...ALONG
WITH A PHOTOGENIC SHELF FEATURE. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS ALSO
REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF SALINAS BY A REPUTABLE TV
METEOROLOGIST AROUND 430PM.

THERE WAS SOME UNDERSTANDABLE CONFUSION ABOUT THE NATURE OF WHAT FELL
FROM THE SKY NEAR SAN JOSE. MANY LOCALS INITIALLY THOUGHT SNOW
FELL NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF EVERGREEN OUTSIDE OF SAN JOSE...
HOWEVER ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO SOMETHING ELSE... HAIL. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL IS THE TRUE CULPRIT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH UPDRAFTS CAN GENERATE HAIL ANYWHERE... BUT THERE ARE LIMITING
FACTORS ON JUST HOW LARGE THE HAIL CAN GROW BASED ON THE
ENVIRONMENT AND TOPOGRAPHY. CALIFORNIAS STORMS ARE TOO DWARFED BY
TOPOGRAPHY AND AIR MASSES TO GENERATE MASSIVE HAILSTONES.
INSTEAD... A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SMALLER HAIL TYPICALLY FALLS
INSTEAD. IN CALIFORNIAS SACRAMENTO VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN WELL OBSERVED DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL WHICH
OFTEN BLANKET A SURFACE IN A WHITE LAYER DECEPTIVELY SIMILAR TO
HOURS OLD SNOW. THE TELL TALE SIGNS THAT HAIL AND NOT SNOW FELL
TODAY ARE THESE: 1. SNOW LEVELS WERE AT OR AROUND 4000 FEET. MT
HAMILITON AT 4200 FEET PICKED UP LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HOWEVER
THE AREA IN QUESTION RANGES FROM AROUND 250 TO 750 FEET... SO IT
WAS FAR BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL. 2. THE HAIL WAS LOCATED IN A RATHER
CONFINED AREA FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC PERSPECTIVE. THAT IS... IT WAS
ROUGHLY THE WIDTH OF A HAIL SHAFT FROM A LARGE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. PHOTOS SHOW A ROW OF HILLS BLANKETED WHITE... BUT
THE TALLER HILLS WERE STILL GREEN. SNOW WOULDVE BLANKETED THE
HIGHER HILLS AS WELL. 3. THE PHOTOS SHOW ALL THE HAIL AT THE
GROUND OR ON ROOFS... BUT NOT IN TREES OR SHRUBS. SNOW IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO COAT SETTLE ON ALL SURFACES... INCLUDING SLOPED SURFACES
AND LEAVES... BUT ALL PHOTOS SHOW THAT THE HAIL WAS TOO HEAVY AND
FELL THROUGH LEAVES AND STRAIGHT THE GROUND OR ONTO ANOTHER FLAT
SURFACE SUCH AS A ROOF. 4. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 15 TO 20
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO PERSIST. HAIL IS MUCH SLOWER TO MELT
AND LIKE GLACIERS CAN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN DELICATE CRYSTALLINE SNOW. 5. THE TEXTURE IS THAT OF MANY
TINY ROUND BALLS ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER. THIS IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FLUFFY SNOW FLAKES.

KMUX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND SOUTHWARD AFTER
A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CARMEL VALLEY PICKED
UP NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TODAYS SHOWERS AND WAS AMONG THE
HIGHEST OF REPORTING STATIONS. AMOUNTS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
HALF AN INCH WERE THE MOST WIDELY REPORTED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLIDES OUT OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT MIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WHEN A SECOND
COLD SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO TODAYS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN WHAT THE AREA RECEIVED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AS THE SUN
SETS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE HOWEVER LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT BUT WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOR
THE MOST PART BE DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AM.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA AND ISOLATED T-STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 07:39 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KREV 010425 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO ALPINE AND NORTHERN
MONO COUNTIES. OVERALL WARMING WAS OCCURRING IN CLOUD TOPS BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. STILL,
A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE CARSON RANGE AND IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WATER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADWAYS. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. THIS
BAND WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONO COUNTY. LIKE TODAYS BAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE LOCATION. SO INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM
MARKLEEVILLE TO MAMMOTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED
THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG COVERAGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 010425 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO ALPINE AND NORTHERN
MONO COUNTIES. OVERALL WARMING WAS OCCURRING IN CLOUD TOPS BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. STILL,
A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE CARSON RANGE AND IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WATER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADWAYS. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. THIS
BAND WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONO COUNTY. LIKE TODAYS BAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE LOCATION. SO INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM
MARKLEEVILLE TO MAMMOTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED
THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG COVERAGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KPSR 010323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CA TO CENTRAL AZ.
ONE DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ SATURDAY WITH
A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL ONE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AZ
MONDAY...HOWEVER IN THE INTERIM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AZ.

REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SAT MORNING AND EVENING SHOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE HAD BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
WITH TIME.  AT 5 PM MST A RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN BAJA INTO SOUTHERN AZ. AS THE DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL SPIN UP INTO THE SYSTEM FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MAYBE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATES WERE TO INCREASE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA.

OTHERWISE AS NOTE ABOVE...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY...IN THE 20 TO 35
KNOT RANGE...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP IN LA
PAZ...NORTHERN MARICOPA...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS OK FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...FORECASTS LOOK GOOD SHOWING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF PRECIP
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CULMINATING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...342 PM MST...
AFTERNOON IR/WV IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO
TRAVEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW SOUTH
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LOW...UNSETTLED WESTERLY MID AND UPPER JET FLOW SPANS FROM THE CA
COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MARICOPA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN TO PERCOLATE WELL EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...ALONG THE US60
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECAST ZONES...WITH MANY
SITES REPORTING GUSTS INTO THE 30 KT/MID 30 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER BACK IN SPEEDS LATER INTO THE EVENING WHILE
STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER AREA RIDGETOPS. SPOTTY SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILL/HIGH
TERRAIN LOCALES NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO POSSIBLE 0.10" OR SO. POP
FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH INCREASING
PERCENTAGES AND COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED THE FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX YOU GO.

IN GENERAL...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL NARRATIVE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOLNS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WINDOWS OUT BY ANOTHER 6-HRS OR SO.
THE TRANSLATES TO THE WINDOWS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST CA LATER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY
AFTER 18Z. IN ADDITION...THE WINDOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/FOOTHILLS HAS SHIFTED PRIMARILY TO
MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE WORKED INTO THE QPF
GRIDS...WITH UPWARD NUDGES OF STORM TOTAL VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY CORNER AND 1.5 INCH
VALUES FOR WICKENBURG AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. AROUND 1 INCH
STORM TOTAL HOLDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO WITH 0.60 TO 0.90 OR SO
READINGS POSSIBLE OUT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO THE SOCAL COAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO/LA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT BAND OF ELEVATED SUBTROPIC MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCY LINGERS BETWEEN FORECAST VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OBSERVED TPW PWAT SAT READINGS WITH THE MODELS
OVER-DOING PWAT FCSTS BY ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ATTM.
HOWEVER...QPF FORECAST VALUES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE OFF
THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH SOCAL SUNDAY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS A SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY DROPS OUT OF THE PAC
NW. MAIN PRECIP FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL TRANSITION FROM PORTIONS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN AZ LATER SUNDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ BY MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MONDAY...WITH EVEN
THE THREAT FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER MONDAY WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW COLD CORE ACROSS AZ. THINK THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD WRAP FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS GIVEN THE
LATEST ROUND OF TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

THE SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY SKIRTS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND
DROPS OVER BAJA FOR TUESDAY...NOW PRESENTING A POTENTIALLY DRIER
TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM STRUGGLES
IN THE MODEL SOLNS...LEFT THE FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAINLY UNTOUCHED. THEY RESULT IN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/HIGHER TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED AND
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF FEATURE SKIRTING THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY AND FREE FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIP ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON
MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX VALLEY ARE EXPECTED...WITH A BRIEF HEAVIER
PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. THEREFORE SCT CLDS BASED NEAR 4 THSD
AGL WITH BKN-OVC CLDS BETWEEN 5-6 THSD AGL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z SUN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM 14Z-20Z SUN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 16Z SUN...SCT CLDS NEAR 6 THSD AGL..BKN CLDS 10-12 THSD AGL.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FROM 16Z SUN TO 20Z SUN...
CLDS LOWERING TO BKN 6 THSD AGL WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN











000
FXUS66 KEKA 010210
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
610 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS SET
TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE TO THE POPS AND WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS ARE GOING WITH THEM. SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION, LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE, HAVE TAKEN OUT THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 329 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 010210
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
610 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS SET
TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE TO THE POPS AND WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, SHOWERS ARE GOING WITH THEM. SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE REGION, LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE, HAVE TAKEN OUT THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. BFG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 329 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KLOX 010032 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEERING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS
IT WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0025Z.

AT 2355Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THRU THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010032 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEERING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS
IT WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0025Z.

AT 2355Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL AFFECT KPMD AND KWJF THRU THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
340 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AS THE SUN
SETS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE HOWEVER LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT BUT WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOR
THE MOST PART BE DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AM.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA AND ISOLATED T-STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
340 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AS THE SUN
SETS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE HOWEVER LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT BUT WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOR
THE MOST PART BE DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AM.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA AND ISOLATED T-STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
340 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AS THE SUN
SETS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE HOWEVER LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT BUT WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOR
THE MOST PART BE DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AM.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA AND ISOLATED T-STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
340 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AS THE SUN
SETS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE HOWEVER LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER MONTEREY BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT BUT WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLEAR START FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY BAY
REGION.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOR
THE MOST PART BE DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AM.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...-SHRA AND ISOLATED T-STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:40 PM PST SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PIGEON POINT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
SUBSIDING SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
PASSES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 282329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM SUN
     FOR CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED FOR PZZ475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 282329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM SUN
     FOR CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED FOR PZZ475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM SUN
     FOR CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED FOR PZZ475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 282329
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
329 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE S ACROSS CA. ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE
AREA HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR ONE TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR NAVARRO AND MOVED SW. ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 26K FT
AT THE TIME. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS MENDOCINO
COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE COASTAL AND MENDOCINO INTERIOR ZONES
BEGINS TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO EXISTING FROST ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE SHAVED OFF A BIT OF THE FROST AREA FROM THE N
REDWOOD COAST AND LEANED TOWARD A LATER DEVELOPMENT TIME ACROSS
THE S DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. WIND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST MAY FORM
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE N IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES
S. BEST CHANCES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF MENDOCINO
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF UKIAH. BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS HAVE SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND SEAS AT BOTH NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT
9 TO 10 FEET AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT
18Z INDICATED THAT GALES WERE LIKELY STILL OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER
WATERS AT THAT POINT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT
IN RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 22 TO 00Z ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE STEADILY INCREASING SEAS AT LOCAL
BUOYS...THE GALE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS APPEARS TO
BE VALID. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER
WATERS...STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GALES
REMAINS LOW. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BUILDING SEAS IN THESE ZONES...A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 3 PM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT.

BY 3 AM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
GALE WATCH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS TO EXPIRE...IN ADDITION TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER WATERS.  WHILE A SLIGHT
LULL IN WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL YET ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT/LOW END GALE STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT GALES WILL MATERIALIZE AT THIS STAGE.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL RE EXAMINE THE REMAINING ZONES
FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AFTER THE CURRENT GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS
PRODUCTS EXPIRE.  ALSO IN THE MIX WILL BE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT
WILL HAVE AT THIS STAGE.  STILL...THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING ALONG
SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM SUN
     FOR CAZ001-002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ410-450.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM WED FOR PZZ475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SUN FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282244
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282244
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282244
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282244
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
244 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...BUSY SHIFT TODAY THANKS
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PLUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS EXPECTED SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY WITH MANY REPORTS
COMING IN VIA SPOTTERS ALONG WITH SOCIAL MEDIA (THANKS FOR THE
REPORTS). KMUX RADAR HAS PICKED UP CELLS NOW IN ALMOST ALL
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA EXPECT FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTO SAN MATEO
COUNTY. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE NOTICED A DEFINITE
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY WITH MORE MODERATE CELLS ALONG WITH GOOD
CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING. HAVE ISSUED TWO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH MORE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING THE INCH MARK. FOR THE
NORTH AREAS AMOUNTS VARY FROM ZERO TO CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A
INCH HIGHLIGHTING THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CELLS. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE WEST OF OXNARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TO BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS POSSIBLE SAN BENITO
COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEALS OF THE CURRENT STORM...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FAST MOVING
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA STARTING IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SHOULD SEE MID 60S TO MID 70S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 282243
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
342 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON IR/WV IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO
TRAVEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW SOUTH
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LOW...UNSETTLED WESTERLY MID AND UPPER JET FLOW SPANS FROM THE CA
COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MARICOPA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN TO PERCOLATE WELL EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...ALONG THE US60
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECAST ZONES...WITH MANY
SITES REPORTING GUSTS INTO THE 30 KT/MID 30 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER BACK IN SPEEDS LATER INTO THE EVENING WHILE
STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER AREA RIDGETOPS. SPOTTY SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILL/HIGH
TERRAIN LOCALES NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO POSSIBLE 0.10" OR SO. POP
FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH INCREASING
PERCENTAGES AND COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED THE FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX YOU GO.

IN GENERAL...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL NARRATIVE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOLNS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WINDOWS OUT BY ANOTHER 6-HRS OR SO.
THE TRANSLATES TO THE WINDOWS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST CA LATER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY
AFTER 18Z. IN ADDITION...THE WINDOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/FOOTHILLS HAS SHIFTED PRIMARILY TO
MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE WORKED INTO THE QPF
GRIDS...WITH UPWARD NUDGES OF STORM TOTAL VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY CORNER AND 1.5 INCH
VALUES FOR WICKENBURG AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. AROUND 1 INCH
STORM TOTAL HOLDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO WITH 0.60 TO 0.90 OR SO
READINGS POSSIBLE OUT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO THE SOCAL COAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO/LA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT BAND OF ELEVATED SUBTROPIC MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCY LINGERS BETWEEN FORECAST VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OBSERVED TPW PWAT SAT READINGS WITH THE MODELS
OVER-DOING PWAT FCSTS BY ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ATTM.
HOWEVER...QPF FORECAST VALUES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE OFF
THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH SOCAL SUNDAY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS A SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY DROPS OUT OF THE PAC
NW. MAIN PRECIP FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL TRANSITION FROM PORTIONS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN AZ LATER SUNDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ BY MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MONDAY...WITH EVEN
THE THREAT FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER MONDAY WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW COLD CORE ACROSS AZ. THINK THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD WRAP FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS GIVEN THE
LATEST ROUND OF TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

THE SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY SKIRTS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND
DROPS OVER BAJA FOR TUESDAY...NOW PRESENTING A POTENTIALLY DRIER
TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM STRUGGLES
IN THE MODEL SOLNS...LEFT THE FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAINLY UNTOUCHED. THEY RESULT IN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/HIGHER TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED AND
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF FEATURE SKIRTING THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY AND FREE FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIP ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON
MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR S.F. BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR
SCT-BKN DECKS WITH BASES AT FL050-070 DECREASING TO FL040-060 AFTER
06Z. ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH HIGHER MOUNTAINS OBSCURED...THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SCT...LOCALLY BKN...CLOUD BASES FL060-080 WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 282243
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
342 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW APPROACH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON IR/WV IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO
TRAVEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW SOUTH
OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LOW...UNSETTLED WESTERLY MID AND UPPER JET FLOW SPANS FROM THE CA
COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MARICOPA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN TO PERCOLATE WELL EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO...ALONG THE US60
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECAST ZONES...WITH MANY
SITES REPORTING GUSTS INTO THE 30 KT/MID 30 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER BACK IN SPEEDS LATER INTO THE EVENING WHILE
STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER AREA RIDGETOPS. SPOTTY SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILL/HIGH
TERRAIN LOCALES NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO POSSIBLE 0.10" OR SO. POP
FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH INCREASING
PERCENTAGES AND COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED THE FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX YOU GO.

IN GENERAL...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL NARRATIVE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOLNS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WINDOWS OUT BY ANOTHER 6-HRS OR SO.
THE TRANSLATES TO THE WINDOWS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST CA LATER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY
AFTER 18Z. IN ADDITION...THE WINDOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/FOOTHILLS HAS SHIFTED PRIMARILY TO
MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE WORKED INTO THE QPF
GRIDS...WITH UPWARD NUDGES OF STORM TOTAL VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY CORNER AND 1.5 INCH
VALUES FOR WICKENBURG AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. AROUND 1 INCH
STORM TOTAL HOLDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO WITH 0.60 TO 0.90 OR SO
READINGS POSSIBLE OUT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
CA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO THE SOCAL COAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...STALLING OUT WEST OF SAN DIEGO/LA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT BAND OF ELEVATED SUBTROPIC MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. SOME DISCREPANCY LINGERS BETWEEN FORECAST VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OBSERVED TPW PWAT SAT READINGS WITH THE MODELS
OVER-DOING PWAT FCSTS BY ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH ATTM.
HOWEVER...QPF FORECAST VALUES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE OFF
THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH SOCAL SUNDAY...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS A SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY DROPS OUT OF THE PAC
NW. MAIN PRECIP FRONTAL BAND...WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL TRANSITION FROM PORTIONS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN AZ LATER SUNDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ BY MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MONDAY...WITH EVEN
THE THREAT FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP LATER MONDAY WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW COLD CORE ACROSS AZ. THINK THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD WRAP FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS GIVEN THE
LATEST ROUND OF TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

THE SECONDARY KICKER SYSTEM QUICKLY SKIRTS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND
DROPS OVER BAJA FOR TUESDAY...NOW PRESENTING A POTENTIALLY DRIER
TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM STRUGGLES
IN THE MODEL SOLNS...LEFT THE FORECAST POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAINLY UNTOUCHED. THEY RESULT IN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS/HIGHER TERRAIN
TUESDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED AND
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF FEATURE SKIRTING THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY AND FREE FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIP ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON
MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S/LOWER 80S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR S.F. BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR
SCT-BKN DECKS WITH BASES AT FL050-070 DECREASING TO FL040-060 AFTER
06Z. ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH HIGHER MOUNTAINS OBSCURED...THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SCT...LOCALLY BKN...CLOUD BASES FL060-080 WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KHNX 282240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...OROGRAPHIC UPFLOW WILL FAVOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA. PRECIP VALUES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY TO
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A STRONG +100KT JET WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIST OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE DISTRICT TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WHILE THE JET WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE IF THE WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
400 PM PST.

THE UPPER LOW PRODUCING TODAY/S WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND BE CENTERED NEAR SANTA BARBARA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MODELS PROGS LESS INSTABILITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OFFSHORE...ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH END
OF THE VALLEY AND ACROSS MOST OF KERN COUNTY.

BY MONDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. YET...A SECOND
STORM WILL THEN DROP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALSO MOVE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS NEXT STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON MONDAY. YET...
SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER CHARTS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE SECOND
ROUND OF WEATHER. ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS IS THAT
THE SECOND WILL MOVE FASTER AND EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WHILE TUESDAY MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...THE TREND WILL BE TO GO DRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL RETURN AND PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 282240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...OROGRAPHIC UPFLOW WILL FAVOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA. PRECIP VALUES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY TO
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A STRONG +100KT JET WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIST OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE DISTRICT TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WHILE THE JET WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE IF THE WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
400 PM PST.

THE UPPER LOW PRODUCING TODAY/S WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND BE CENTERED NEAR SANTA BARBARA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MODELS PROGS LESS INSTABILITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OFFSHORE...ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH END
OF THE VALLEY AND ACROSS MOST OF KERN COUNTY.

BY MONDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. YET...A SECOND
STORM WILL THEN DROP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALSO MOVE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS NEXT STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON MONDAY. YET...
SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER CHARTS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE SECOND
ROUND OF WEATHER. ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS IS THAT
THE SECOND WILL MOVE FASTER AND EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WHILE TUESDAY MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...THE TREND WILL BE TO GO DRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL RETURN AND PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 282223
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEARING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS IT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 282223
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEARING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS IT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282223
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEARING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS IT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282223
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
220 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF
100 PM...THE FIRST UPPER LOW WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CALIFORNIA BIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP AND MOVE INLAND
ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW STARTS TO DIVES SOUTH.

SO FAR TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FROM THE
VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POINTS N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IT WILL RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES WELL TO THE N OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH OVER 500 J/KG OF CAPE. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
TSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
200 J/KG...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. TSTORMS COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ADDED
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER MOVING THAN TODAY...WITH MUCH WEAKER STEARING WINDS...SO
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS COULD BE MORE
OF A CONCERN TOMORROW.

AREA AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
BE 0.10-0.25" FOR THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 0.50-1.00" IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4AM MONDAY FOR THE VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE LAXWSWLOX FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING...THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE SECOND UPPER-LOW QUICKLY DIVES DOWN
FROM THE N. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY TUESAY MORNING. RAIN
AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AS IT
WILL BE FASTER MOVING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000
FEET. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME VERY NICE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT
TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282208
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
208 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region will continue to drift
slowly southward this evening. I-80 has been getting some
impressive amounts towards the higher elevations last night and
today where a foot plus has accumulated. The main focus of
showers will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Any thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be
producing small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be
on the weaker side (non-severe). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through early evening. Snow levels will continue to be
around 4000 feet into the evening but in heavier convective
activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.

As the low shifts further to the south late this afternoon and
this evening the activity will shift further south and focus on
areas south of US-50. Snowfall amounts along highway 88 and areas
to the south are expected to pic up with around several inches of
snow likely for the higher elevations.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm but may be down to near 3000 feet over parts of Shasta
County Monday morning. This low will be centered further west and
out over the ocean than this current low pressure area. While it
looks weaker at this time we will have to monitor its progression
since there could be that possibility that some additional
moisture could get sucked into the low and alter the current
forecast.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Medium range models showing dry weather through the extended
forecast period as upper ridging off the West Coast builds inland
over NorCal Thursday then into the Great Basin by Saturday. High
temperatures in the Central Valley expected in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr low ovr Intr NorCal movs S into SoCal Sun. Mnly VFR exc lcl
MVFR/IFR poss in shwrs til arnd 09z with isold LIFR omtns. Isold
tsra/tsrags poss til 03z. Sn lvls arnd 035 to 045.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KREV 282140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 282140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
133 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWED PATCHY CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL OUT
TO SEA...MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WERE THICKEST OVER THE MTS WITH WAVE
CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
DROPPING OFF A BIT...BUT GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING AT A
FEW WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WAVE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERTS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS SURFACING
LOCALLY OUT OVER THE DESERT FLOOR.

THROUGH 1:30 PM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT A FEW HAD
SMALL MODERATE CORES. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE
MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CHOICE SPOTS ON
THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
SW-NE ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT
CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...READY TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUE THE
SHOWER/TSTM THREAT INTO TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A
RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY
THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER
THE COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS 5500 TO
6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET.
AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS
COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MON AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AND VORTICITY AXIS SWING INLAND. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD FALL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST 12 MODEL RUNS. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES DIMINISH AND CONVECTION DOMINATES
THE PRECIP PROCESS.

ALL THE LATEST MODELS NOW KEEP THE SECOND AMPLIFYING WAVE AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE TUE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET LATER SUN THROUGH MON. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE. NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WARNING...BUT AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CLIPPED FROM VALUES PUBLISHED IN EARLIER GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION... 282230Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500-6000 FT MSL WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY...WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS
1500 FT MSL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 10Z SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE
DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND LOWER DESERTS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...130 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281841
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE
STORMS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 281841
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE
STORMS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 281841
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE
STORMS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY LAST TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281813
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1013 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WET RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING RUSH. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC IN NATURE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VICINITY SHOWERS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:49 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF POINT REYES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
SEA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/RW

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281812
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1011 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG SOUTHWEST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01/05Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 6KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 1KFT SUNDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS APPROXIMATELY 30KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 01/05Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 030 AT TIMES THROUGH 28/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 030
AND -SHRA BETWEEN 01/03-01/11Z. CHANCE CIGS 030-035 AND -TSRA
BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035-040 THEREAFTER.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 025 THROUGH 28/19Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN
29/19-01/11Z. CHANCE -TSRA CIGS 030 BETWEEN 01/11-01/15Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281744
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO DECREASE THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS S OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN CA CONTINUES TO MOVE S. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO
HELP SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...AS THIS WILL BE A CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH
COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. COULD EVEN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF POINT CONCEPTION TODAY...WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 28 KT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 25 KT AND SOUTHWEST AROUND
15 KT NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A SWELL GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WITHIN 190-210 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY LAST
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSGX 281645
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
844 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY INTO THE DESERTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ZONE FORECAST UPDATED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MTS TODAY
AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WERE CONFINED TO WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A 1500 FT SATURATED LAYER
TOPPED BY A WEAK INVERSION NEAR 5700 FT. WESTERLY WINDS EXCEEDED 40
KT ABOVE 9K FT. PW WAS 0.75 INCH.

THROUGH 8:30 AM PST...RADAR HAD A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DRIFTING
EAST OFF THE COASTAL WATERS. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS
WERE MOSTLY UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ON THE
COASTAL SLOPES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD...
POSITIVELY TILTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM AROUND BOISE TO
MORRO BAY DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD POINT CONCEPTION. MOUNTAIN SLOPE WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SCATTERED...MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.

LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AFTER TUE AS THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE BUILDS BACK OVER CA BRINGING A RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND
FAIR...WARMER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

WIND...A WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE OVER THE NORTHERN DESERTS BY NOON
TODAY...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MTS/DESERTS BY 4 PM. GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS...MAINLY THROUGH THE
SAN GORGONIO PASS AND DESERT MTN SLOPES UNTIL THEN.

PRECIP...SCATTERED...LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH AN EMPHASIS OVER THE
COASTAL SLOPES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 5500
FT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DROP TONIGHT
TO AROUND 5000 FEET. AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATE IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT OR ON SUN AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ORGANIZED LIFT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...WHICH MAY CLIP THE TIJUANA RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE EMPHASIS FOR CONSISTENTLY HEAVIER PRECIP
AMOUNTS MOVE AWAY FROM THE MTNS AND TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
TIME.

ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS A CHANCE TO GET MORE
RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CLIPS THAT REGION AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS AND WRFEMS RUNS.

SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FT FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
FALLING TO 4800 TO 5200 FT. THE WARNING MAY BE PREMATURE WITH THE
LATEST HIRES MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
SNOW AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET MAY BE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LATEST
CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM STILL FAVOR 8 INCH AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER MTS BY LATE TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...281600Z...A MIX OF SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN 1500-
6000 FT WILL PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY...WITH
BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1000 FT MSL IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 08Z
SUNDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THE DESERTS SLOPES THROUGH 00Z.
MODERATE UDDFS/LLWS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...800 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS 18-25 KT
AND STEEP SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10
KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT PERIOD SWELL AT 4-6 FT AND 7-9 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR FORECAST
DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281643
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
843 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region. The main focus of
today`s shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the southern
half of the CWA...from around Oroville southward with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible to the north. The bulk of the
activity will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be producing
small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be on the
weaker side (non-severe).

Snow
levels will continue to be around 4000 feet today but in heavier
convective activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.
Thunderstorms may start to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon time period today. As the low shifts further to the
south late today and this evening the activity will shift further
south and focus on areas south of US-50. We could potentially get
up to 6 inches of new snow near the crest along I-80. Snowfall
amounts along highway 88 and areas to the south are expected to
pic up as the system shifts its focus to the south late this
afternoon and evening.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions with mid to high level cloudiness expected
across forecast terminals over next 24 hours as upper low drops
south across central/southern CA today. Potential for isolated
aftn/evening thunderstorms with small hail. Have continued PROB30
group to cover this with low confidence of occurrence at any one
site. Winds will generally remain in the 5 to 10 kt range with a
few locally higher gusts. Dry weather and partially clearing skies
expected later overnight into Sunday as system moves south.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281643
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
843 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold low pressure area is over the region. The main focus of
today`s shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the southern
half of the CWA...from around Oroville southward with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible to the north. The bulk of the
activity will continue to be over the Motherlode and Sierra Nevada
with some showers and thunderstorms possible in the valley.
Thunderstorms will be slow moving today and should be producing
small hail. Wind shear is weak so storms will likely be on the
weaker side (non-severe).

Snow
levels will continue to be around 4000 feet today but in heavier
convective activity local areas may lower to around 3000 feet.
Thunderstorms may start to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon time period today. As the low shifts further to the
south late today and this evening the activity will shift further
south and focus on areas south of US-50. We could potentially get
up to 6 inches of new snow near the crest along I-80. Snowfall
amounts along highway 88 and areas to the south are expected to
pic up as the system shifts its focus to the south late this
afternoon and evening.

On Sunday shower chances will mainly be over the mountains with the
valley likely staying dry other than a stray shower chance over
the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

Another system dropping down from the north on Monday will bring
more shower and thunderstorm chances to the interior on Monday.
Snow levels look to be between 4000 and 5000 feet with this
storm.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions with mid to high level cloudiness expected
across forecast terminals over next 24 hours as upper low drops
south across central/southern CA today. Potential for isolated
aftn/evening thunderstorms with small hail. Have continued PROB30
group to cover this with low confidence of occurrence at any one
site. Winds will generally remain in the 5 to 10 kt range with a
few locally higher gusts. Dry weather and partially clearing skies
expected later overnight into Sunday as system moves south.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS AND 12Z RAOBS PLOT THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN NV/CA WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MID AND UPPER JET ENERGY
CUTTING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA OFF THE PACIFIC AND STRETCHING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS. 300MB JET LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER...WINDS
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND ARE MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO THE MOGOLLON RIM/NORTHERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN. IN RESPONSE
TO THE OVERHEAD JET...WINDY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CA HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CO RIVER
VALLEY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECASTS FOR THE DAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP/SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN IN THIS "LIFT" REGION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIM AND HAVE SLOWLY STRETCHED BACK
DOWN ACROSS THE PHX METRO...FAVORING MOSTLY THE NORTH AND WEST
VALLEY LOCALES. GAUGES SO FAR WITH THE HEALTHIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
LIE ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY ALONG THE CAVE CREEK DRAINAGE
WITH 6-HR TOTALS IN THE 0.10 TO NEAR 0.20" RANGE. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED RAINFALL REPORTS INCLUDE TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
PHX VALLEY AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OUT IN THE VICINITY OF LUKE AFB.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT IT...TODAY WILL BE MORE ABOUT WORKING UP
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA PWATS ARE ALREADY UP
AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...165 PERCENT OUT OF SAN DIEGO WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER TO BE WORKED EASTWARD...126 PERCENT UP FOR FLAGSTAFF
AND 200 PERCENT FOR TUCSON. WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND DIVERGENT PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE THE
REGIME TODAY. GRIDDED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRESENTING A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY. MADE ONLY MINOR BLENDS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
POPS GRIDS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS
TODAY /THROUGH 29/00Z/.

FORECAST CHALLENGE GETTING LATER INTO THE DAY WILL BE TO WATCH FOR
ANY FURTHER TIMING SLIPS IN OUR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WINDOW /LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY/ FROM THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITES. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/...
A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN













000
FXUS65 KPSR 281626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS AND 12Z RAOBS PLOT THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN NV/CA WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MID AND UPPER JET ENERGY
CUTTING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA OFF THE PACIFIC AND STRETCHING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS. 300MB JET LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER...WINDS
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND ARE MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO THE MOGOLLON RIM/NORTHERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN. IN RESPONSE
TO THE OVERHEAD JET...WINDY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CA HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CO RIVER
VALLEY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECASTS FOR THE DAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP/SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN IN THIS "LIFT" REGION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIM AND HAVE SLOWLY STRETCHED BACK
DOWN ACROSS THE PHX METRO...FAVORING MOSTLY THE NORTH AND WEST
VALLEY LOCALES. GAUGES SO FAR WITH THE HEALTHIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
LIE ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY ALONG THE CAVE CREEK DRAINAGE
WITH 6-HR TOTALS IN THE 0.10 TO NEAR 0.20" RANGE. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED RAINFALL REPORTS INCLUDE TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
PHX VALLEY AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OUT IN THE VICINITY OF LUKE AFB.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT IT...TODAY WILL BE MORE ABOUT WORKING UP
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA PWATS ARE ALREADY UP
AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...165 PERCENT OUT OF SAN DIEGO WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER TO BE WORKED EASTWARD...126 PERCENT UP FOR FLAGSTAFF
AND 200 PERCENT FOR TUCSON. WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND DIVERGENT PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE THE
REGIME TODAY. GRIDDED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRESENTING A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY. MADE ONLY MINOR BLENDS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
POPS GRIDS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS
TODAY /THROUGH 29/00Z/.

FORECAST CHALLENGE GETTING LATER INTO THE DAY WILL BE TO WATCH FOR
ANY FURTHER TIMING SLIPS IN OUR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WINDOW /LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY/ FROM THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITES. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/...
A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN













000
FXUS65 KPSR 281626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS AND 12Z RAOBS PLOT THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN NV/CA WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MID AND UPPER JET ENERGY
CUTTING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA OFF THE PACIFIC AND STRETCHING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS. 300MB JET LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER...WINDS
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND ARE MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO THE MOGOLLON RIM/NORTHERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN. IN RESPONSE
TO THE OVERHEAD JET...WINDY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CA HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CO RIVER
VALLEY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECASTS FOR THE DAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP/SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN IN THIS "LIFT" REGION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIM AND HAVE SLOWLY STRETCHED BACK
DOWN ACROSS THE PHX METRO...FAVORING MOSTLY THE NORTH AND WEST
VALLEY LOCALES. GAUGES SO FAR WITH THE HEALTHIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
LIE ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY ALONG THE CAVE CREEK DRAINAGE
WITH 6-HR TOTALS IN THE 0.10 TO NEAR 0.20" RANGE. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED RAINFALL REPORTS INCLUDE TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
PHX VALLEY AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OUT IN THE VICINITY OF LUKE AFB.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT IT...TODAY WILL BE MORE ABOUT WORKING UP
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA PWATS ARE ALREADY UP
AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...165 PERCENT OUT OF SAN DIEGO WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER TO BE WORKED EASTWARD...126 PERCENT UP FOR FLAGSTAFF
AND 200 PERCENT FOR TUCSON. WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND DIVERGENT PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE THE
REGIME TODAY. GRIDDED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRESENTING A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY. MADE ONLY MINOR BLENDS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
POPS GRIDS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS
TODAY /THROUGH 29/00Z/.

FORECAST CHALLENGE GETTING LATER INTO THE DAY WILL BE TO WATCH FOR
ANY FURTHER TIMING SLIPS IN OUR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WINDOW /LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY/ FROM THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITES. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/...
A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN













000
FXUS65 KPSR 281626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS AND 12Z RAOBS PLOT THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN NV/CA WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MID AND UPPER JET ENERGY
CUTTING ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA OFF THE PACIFIC AND STRETCHING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS. 300MB JET LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST. THROUGH THE 700-500MB LAYER...WINDS
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND ARE MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO THE MOGOLLON RIM/NORTHERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN. IN RESPONSE
TO THE OVERHEAD JET...WINDY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CA HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CO RIVER
VALLEY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY THREAT OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CA FORECASTS FOR THE DAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP/SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGAN IN THIS "LIFT" REGION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIM AND HAVE SLOWLY STRETCHED BACK
DOWN ACROSS THE PHX METRO...FAVORING MOSTLY THE NORTH AND WEST
VALLEY LOCALES. GAUGES SO FAR WITH THE HEALTHIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
LIE ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY ALONG THE CAVE CREEK DRAINAGE
WITH 6-HR TOTALS IN THE 0.10 TO NEAR 0.20" RANGE. OTHER WIDELY
SCATTERED RAINFALL REPORTS INCLUDE TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
PHX VALLEY AND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OUT IN THE VICINITY OF LUKE AFB.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT IT...TODAY WILL BE MORE ABOUT WORKING UP
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA PWATS ARE ALREADY UP
AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...165 PERCENT OUT OF SAN DIEGO WITH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER TO BE WORKED EASTWARD...126 PERCENT UP FOR FLAGSTAFF
AND 200 PERCENT FOR TUCSON. WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
AND DIVERGENT PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE THE
REGIME TODAY. GRIDDED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRESENTING A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE DAY. MADE ONLY MINOR BLENDS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
POPS GRIDS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS
TODAY /THROUGH 29/00Z/.

FORECAST CHALLENGE GETTING LATER INTO THE DAY WILL BE TO WATCH FOR
ANY FURTHER TIMING SLIPS IN OUR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WINDOW /LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY/ FROM THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITES. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 305 AM MST/...
A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN













000
FXUS66 KMTR 281624
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
824 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281624
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
824 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281624
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
824 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS HIGHLIGHTING AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH IN
MONTEREY COUNTY. KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING CAME ACROSS WITH
LIFTED VALUES OF -.6 AND CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. 15Z HRRR
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SF BAY REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN RISKS WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK SO MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE MONITORING RADAR PLUS SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRODUCT UPDATES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING
WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW
CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO
HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH 0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE- QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281300
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281300
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 281300
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 281300
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS NRN CA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WHILE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT
IN GENERAL...EXPECT TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
EXCEPT ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTY. LOCAL TOTALS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON
AVERAGE...EXPECT A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND
6500 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO
4 INCHES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 18 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24
HOUR PERIOD. LATER SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A BIT
FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB



000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281244
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
444 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY...DECREASING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO MONDAY WITH A SECOND
FASTER LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE COAST. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN SHOWING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
DESERTS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.

AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THIS FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG WITH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL FROM THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

THROUGH TUESDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR
THE COAST TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS. IN THE DESERTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET TODAY...AND TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

281000Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 01/0600Z...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL VIS
RESTRICTION 1-3 SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 800 FT MSL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
IN THE DESERTS...CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH
ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM MOVES
OVER THE WATERS.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS.
FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281222
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NRN CA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERAL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTIES. LOCAL TOTALS TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON AVERAGE...EXPECT A
TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...WITH
TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 18 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A
BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281222
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NRN CA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERAL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTIES. LOCAL TOTALS TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON AVERAGE...EXPECT A
TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...WITH
TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 18 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A
BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281222
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NRN CA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERAL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTIES. LOCAL TOTALS TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON AVERAGE...EXPECT A
TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...WITH
TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 18 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A
BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281222
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND...
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT STILL MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
STRONG AND VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CA...WITH
A POTENT VORT ON ITS BACKSIDE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE VORT
HELPING TO PULL THE UPPER CENTER SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST TO A
POSITION JUST WEST OF MONTEREY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CA
SHOULD BACK FROM NWLY TO WSWLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT WAS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST IN THE NWLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION. INCREASINGLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EXTRA LIFT
SHOULD CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD S OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN L.A. COUNTY.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP SWD TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS. THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SMALL HAIL...AND INDEED...THIS HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NRN CA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS L.A.
COUNTY AND EASTERN VTU COUNTY AS SOME LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERAL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE L.A.
COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VALLEYS OF ERN VTU COUNTIES. LOCAL TOTALS TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR TRAVELERS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 FEET LATE TODAY...THEN TO BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND LINGER AT THOSE LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY WELL AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS HIGHER PORTIONS OF
INTERSTATE 5...HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 33...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. ON AVERAGE...EXPECT A
TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5000 AND 6500 FEET...WITH
TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET. THERE COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 18 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS...OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN VTU COUNTY. WAS STRONGLY CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...BUT HAVE DECIDED AGAINST IT...SINCE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY NOT MEET THE REQUIRED TOTALS IN ANY 12 OR 24 HOUR PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS MAY WELL HAVE TO UPGRADE DEPENDING UPON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY END
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HAVE LOW SNOW LEVELS...AND PROBABLY ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS. THAT SYSTEM WILL MOVE A BIT FASTER...BUT MAY ALSO TRACK A
BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST...SO IT MAY PICK UP MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATE MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
TUE...BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
TUE AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT OR
WARMING. THE 06Z GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SWD INTO THE
REGION ON WED...AND THAT WAS NOT ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. NO SHOWER
EXPECTED...BUT IT COULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THU AND
FRI...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...28/1135Z...

AT 0940Z...THE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AT 4300 FEET. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 5 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. INCREASING COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL VARY RANDOMLY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR LEVELS.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
START TIME IS VERY LOW). CHANCES OF TSTMS AT THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT
WILL BE 10-15%.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
AND CHOPPY SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KEKA 281220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
420 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. AS OF 3AM RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS JUST
OFF THE COAST AND A FEW ARE MOVING ONTO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY PICKS UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS...WITH THE COAST BEING MAINLY DRY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON
ALONG THE COAST AND IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WIND THE
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
FROST FROM FORMING AND TEMPERATURES UP. MONDAY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD START TO CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NIGHTS WILL BE
CHILLY WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM ONCE AGAIN. LATE IN THE
WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY TEND TO BE SLOWING DOWN.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...REGION WIDE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVING IMPROVED FLYING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS BRINGING
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MEAN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. I
REFRAINED FROM ADDING TS INTO THE TAFS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR MOSTLY AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
TODAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONE AND SEAS NEARING 10
TO 14 FT BY THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MARINE ZONES 450 AND 475 STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THESE ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED GALE CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OTHER ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT FOR
THE EXPIRATION OF THE EXISTING WARNINGS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW
PRODUCTS.

A MORE SUSTAINED LULL WILL COME LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, WAVE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A PREDICTING A SOUTHERLY SWELL TO IMPACT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE MODEL DATA SHOWS A POTENT LOW JUST SW OF CHILE... WHICH IS
LIKELY GENERATING THE SWELL. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL CONCERNS WITH
THE MODELS POTENTIALLY OVER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL FOR THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST. EVEN THE GLOBAL WAVE DATA SHOWS ATTENUATION AND
DATA GAPS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW I AM CONTENT
WITH THE NWPS OUTPUT WHICH CAPS THE SWELL AT 3 FT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED TOWARDS SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES AND
ANCHORAGES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE
SWELL HEIGHT IS LARGER. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
420 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. AS OF 3AM RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS JUST
OFF THE COAST AND A FEW ARE MOVING ONTO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY PICKS UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS...WITH THE COAST BEING MAINLY DRY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON
ALONG THE COAST AND IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WIND THE
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
FROST FROM FORMING AND TEMPERATURES UP. MONDAY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD START TO CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NIGHTS WILL BE
CHILLY WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM ONCE AGAIN. LATE IN THE
WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY TEND TO BE SLOWING DOWN.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...REGION WIDE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVING IMPROVED FLYING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS BRINGING
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MEAN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. I
REFRAINED FROM ADDING TS INTO THE TAFS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR MOSTLY AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
TODAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONE AND SEAS NEARING 10
TO 14 FT BY THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MARINE ZONES 450 AND 475 STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THESE ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED GALE CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OTHER ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT FOR
THE EXPIRATION OF THE EXISTING WARNINGS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW
PRODUCTS.

A MORE SUSTAINED LULL WILL COME LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, WAVE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A PREDICTING A SOUTHERLY SWELL TO IMPACT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE MODEL DATA SHOWS A POTENT LOW JUST SW OF CHILE... WHICH IS
LIKELY GENERATING THE SWELL. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL CONCERNS WITH
THE MODELS POTENTIALLY OVER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL FOR THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST. EVEN THE GLOBAL WAVE DATA SHOWS ATTENUATION AND
DATA GAPS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW I AM CONTENT
WITH THE NWPS OUTPUT WHICH CAPS THE SWELL AT 3 FT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED TOWARDS SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES AND
ANCHORAGES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE
SWELL HEIGHT IS LARGER. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KSTO 281220
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
420 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Storm system continues to impact NorCal this morning. Current
radar shows that most of the shower activity is occurring across
the Western Sierra slopes south of Plumas County including
Interstate 80 and Highway 50. The center of this low pressure
storm will be over the Bay Area this afternoon and gradually
continue tracking southward. The latest HRRR run is showing that
showers along the Western Sierra slopes will continue into this
evening and that the bulk of shower activity will occur south of
Plumas County. By 3 pm, the HRRR shows that snow showers will be
south of Interstate 80 but will continue to impact Highways 50,
88, and 4.

After updating the QPF and Snow Amount forecast grids, have made a
couple of changes to the Winter Weather Advisory: 1) removed zone
68 from the Advisory which included elevations above 5000 ft for
Plumas, eastern Tehama & eastern Shasta counties 2) extended the
time of the Advisory until 10 pm to better match up with
neighboring forecast offices. As of 4 am, it looks like snow
levels are around 4500 ft and will lower down to 3500 ft as the
center of the low moves into the region. The bulk of snow
accumulation will be above 5000 ft with another 2-5 inches
possible today. Localized spots could reach Warning criteria for
snow amounts by the end of the day, but that criteria isn`t
expected to be widespread. Main message with this system is that
travel over the Sierra from Interstate 80 southward will be
hazardous at the higher elevations and motorists should expect delays.

For the rest of the forecast area, rain amounts will be hit or
miss in the valley since most of the moisture will be across
higher terrain. However, thunderstorms are possible again today
which means local spots could get brief heavy downpours as well as
small hail accumulation...both of which can also impact travel
with slick roads and lowered visibilities.

Showers will taper off late Saturday night and Sunday will bring a
brief break in wet weather. Sunday highs will be mid 60s for the
valley and 40s to 50s in the mountains. A secondary wave of wet
weather arrives Monday into early Tuesday, but moisture will be
more limited with that wave so not much additional rain/snow
expected. Snow levels should be between 4000-5000 ft.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low drops south over interior NorCal next 12 to 18 hrs with
probable areas MVFR/IFR in showers...mainly over Sierra. Potential
isolated aftn/eve t-storms with small hail today with best chances
in valley and foothills. Snow levels around 045 early this morn
lowering to near 035 later this morn or early aftn. Winds are
fairly light and variable as Low moves overhead.     JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281220
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
420 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Storm system continues to impact NorCal this morning. Current
radar shows that most of the shower activity is occurring across
the Western Sierra slopes south of Plumas County including
Interstate 80 and Highway 50. The center of this low pressure
storm will be over the Bay Area this afternoon and gradually
continue tracking southward. The latest HRRR run is showing that
showers along the Western Sierra slopes will continue into this
evening and that the bulk of shower activity will occur south of
Plumas County. By 3 pm, the HRRR shows that snow showers will be
south of Interstate 80 but will continue to impact Highways 50,
88, and 4.

After updating the QPF and Snow Amount forecast grids, have made a
couple of changes to the Winter Weather Advisory: 1) removed zone
68 from the Advisory which included elevations above 5000 ft for
Plumas, eastern Tehama & eastern Shasta counties 2) extended the
time of the Advisory until 10 pm to better match up with
neighboring forecast offices. As of 4 am, it looks like snow
levels are around 4500 ft and will lower down to 3500 ft as the
center of the low moves into the region. The bulk of snow
accumulation will be above 5000 ft with another 2-5 inches
possible today. Localized spots could reach Warning criteria for
snow amounts by the end of the day, but that criteria isn`t
expected to be widespread. Main message with this system is that
travel over the Sierra from Interstate 80 southward will be
hazardous at the higher elevations and motorists should expect delays.

For the rest of the forecast area, rain amounts will be hit or
miss in the valley since most of the moisture will be across
higher terrain. However, thunderstorms are possible again today
which means local spots could get brief heavy downpours as well as
small hail accumulation...both of which can also impact travel
with slick roads and lowered visibilities.

Showers will taper off late Saturday night and Sunday will bring a
brief break in wet weather. Sunday highs will be mid 60s for the
valley and 40s to 50s in the mountains. A secondary wave of wet
weather arrives Monday into early Tuesday, but moisture will be
more limited with that wave so not much additional rain/snow
expected. Snow levels should be between 4000-5000 ft.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low drops south over interior NorCal next 12 to 18 hrs with
probable areas MVFR/IFR in showers...mainly over Sierra. Potential
isolated aftn/eve t-storms with small hail today with best chances
in valley and foothills. Snow levels around 045 early this morn
lowering to near 035 later this morn or early aftn. Winds are
fairly light and variable as Low moves overhead.     JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281220
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
420 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Storm system continues to impact NorCal this morning. Current
radar shows that most of the shower activity is occurring across
the Western Sierra slopes south of Plumas County including
Interstate 80 and Highway 50. The center of this low pressure
storm will be over the Bay Area this afternoon and gradually
continue tracking southward. The latest HRRR run is showing that
showers along the Western Sierra slopes will continue into this
evening and that the bulk of shower activity will occur south of
Plumas County. By 3 pm, the HRRR shows that snow showers will be
south of Interstate 80 but will continue to impact Highways 50,
88, and 4.

After updating the QPF and Snow Amount forecast grids, have made a
couple of changes to the Winter Weather Advisory: 1) removed zone
68 from the Advisory which included elevations above 5000 ft for
Plumas, eastern Tehama & eastern Shasta counties 2) extended the
time of the Advisory until 10 pm to better match up with
neighboring forecast offices. As of 4 am, it looks like snow
levels are around 4500 ft and will lower down to 3500 ft as the
center of the low moves into the region. The bulk of snow
accumulation will be above 5000 ft with another 2-5 inches
possible today. Localized spots could reach Warning criteria for
snow amounts by the end of the day, but that criteria isn`t
expected to be widespread. Main message with this system is that
travel over the Sierra from Interstate 80 southward will be
hazardous at the higher elevations and motorists should expect delays.

For the rest of the forecast area, rain amounts will be hit or
miss in the valley since most of the moisture will be across
higher terrain. However, thunderstorms are possible again today
which means local spots could get brief heavy downpours as well as
small hail accumulation...both of which can also impact travel
with slick roads and lowered visibilities.

Showers will taper off late Saturday night and Sunday will bring a
brief break in wet weather. Sunday highs will be mid 60s for the
valley and 40s to 50s in the mountains. A secondary wave of wet
weather arrives Monday into early Tuesday, but moisture will be
more limited with that wave so not much additional rain/snow
expected. Snow levels should be between 4000-5000 ft.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low drops south over interior NorCal next 12 to 18 hrs with
probable areas MVFR/IFR in showers...mainly over Sierra. Potential
isolated aftn/eve t-storms with small hail today with best chances
in valley and foothills. Snow levels around 045 early this morn
lowering to near 035 later this morn or early aftn. Winds are
fairly light and variable as Low moves overhead.     JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KEKA 281220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
420 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. AS OF 3AM RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS JUST
OFF THE COAST AND A FEW ARE MOVING ONTO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY PICKS UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS...WITH THE COAST BEING MAINLY DRY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON
ALONG THE COAST AND IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WIND THE
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
FROST FROM FORMING AND TEMPERATURES UP. MONDAY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD START TO CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NIGHTS WILL BE
CHILLY WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM ONCE AGAIN. LATE IN THE
WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY TEND TO BE SLOWING DOWN.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...REGION WIDE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVING IMPROVED FLYING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS BRINGING
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MEAN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. I
REFRAINED FROM ADDING TS INTO THE TAFS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR MOSTLY AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
TODAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONE AND SEAS NEARING 10
TO 14 FT BY THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MARINE ZONES 450 AND 475 STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THESE ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED GALE CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OTHER ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT FOR
THE EXPIRATION OF THE EXISTING WARNINGS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW
PRODUCTS.

A MORE SUSTAINED LULL WILL COME LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, WAVE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A PREDICTING A SOUTHERLY SWELL TO IMPACT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE MODEL DATA SHOWS A POTENT LOW JUST SW OF CHILE... WHICH IS
LIKELY GENERATING THE SWELL. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL CONCERNS WITH
THE MODELS POTENTIALLY OVER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL FOR THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST. EVEN THE GLOBAL WAVE DATA SHOWS ATTENUATION AND
DATA GAPS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW I AM CONTENT
WITH THE NWPS OUTPUT WHICH CAPS THE SWELL AT 3 FT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED TOWARDS SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES AND
ANCHORAGES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE
SWELL HEIGHT IS LARGER. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281220
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
420 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system is impacting California today with cooler and wetter
weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains above 3500 feet,
and more so above 5000 feet. Showers dissipate on Sunday then a
second wave of wet weather arrives Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Storm system continues to impact NorCal this morning. Current
radar shows that most of the shower activity is occurring across
the Western Sierra slopes south of Plumas County including
Interstate 80 and Highway 50. The center of this low pressure
storm will be over the Bay Area this afternoon and gradually
continue tracking southward. The latest HRRR run is showing that
showers along the Western Sierra slopes will continue into this
evening and that the bulk of shower activity will occur south of
Plumas County. By 3 pm, the HRRR shows that snow showers will be
south of Interstate 80 but will continue to impact Highways 50,
88, and 4.

After updating the QPF and Snow Amount forecast grids, have made a
couple of changes to the Winter Weather Advisory: 1) removed zone
68 from the Advisory which included elevations above 5000 ft for
Plumas, eastern Tehama & eastern Shasta counties 2) extended the
time of the Advisory until 10 pm to better match up with
neighboring forecast offices. As of 4 am, it looks like snow
levels are around 4500 ft and will lower down to 3500 ft as the
center of the low moves into the region. The bulk of snow
accumulation will be above 5000 ft with another 2-5 inches
possible today. Localized spots could reach Warning criteria for
snow amounts by the end of the day, but that criteria isn`t
expected to be widespread. Main message with this system is that
travel over the Sierra from Interstate 80 southward will be
hazardous at the higher elevations and motorists should expect delays.

For the rest of the forecast area, rain amounts will be hit or
miss in the valley since most of the moisture will be across
higher terrain. However, thunderstorms are possible again today
which means local spots could get brief heavy downpours as well as
small hail accumulation...both of which can also impact travel
with slick roads and lowered visibilities.

Showers will taper off late Saturday night and Sunday will bring a
brief break in wet weather. Sunday highs will be mid 60s for the
valley and 40s to 50s in the mountains. A secondary wave of wet
weather arrives Monday into early Tuesday, but moisture will be
more limited with that wave so not much additional rain/snow
expected. Snow levels should be between 4000-5000 ft.  JBB
&&


.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures
expected through Saturday as blocking ridge off the West Coast
builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley expected
in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for the
mountains and foothills.

By Monday, even though it is out of our official forecast range,
GFS/ECMWF both show the ridge shifting into the Great Basin and a
rather deep upper level Low progressing slowly eastward between
135W to 140W west of Oregon/NorCal.        JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Upper low drops south over interior NorCal next 12 to 18 hrs with
probable areas MVFR/IFR in showers...mainly over Sierra. Potential
isolated aftn/eve t-storms with small hail today with best chances
in valley and foothills. Snow levels around 045 early this morn
lowering to near 035 later this morn or early aftn. Winds are
fairly light and variable as Low moves overhead.     JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 5000
feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KEKA 281220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
420 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. AS OF 3AM RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS JUST
OFF THE COAST AND A FEW ARE MOVING ONTO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY PICKS UP THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS...WITH THE COAST BEING MAINLY DRY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON
ALONG THE COAST AND IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME WIND THE
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE REDWOOD
COAST. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
FROST FROM FORMING AND TEMPERATURES UP. MONDAY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD START TO CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. NIGHTS WILL BE
CHILLY WITH SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM ONCE AGAIN. LATE IN THE
WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY TEND TO BE SLOWING DOWN.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...REGION WIDE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVING IMPROVED FLYING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS BRINGING
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MEAN MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. I
REFRAINED FROM ADDING TS INTO THE TAFS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT ONLY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR MOSTLY AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. OTHERWISE EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
TODAY. KML

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONE AND SEAS NEARING 10
TO 14 FT BY THIS EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MARINE ZONES 450 AND 475 STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THESE ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL
EASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED GALE CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OTHER ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT FOR
THE EXPIRATION OF THE EXISTING WARNINGS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW
PRODUCTS.

A MORE SUSTAINED LULL WILL COME LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, WAVE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A PREDICTING A SOUTHERLY SWELL TO IMPACT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE MODEL DATA SHOWS A POTENT LOW JUST SW OF CHILE... WHICH IS
LIKELY GENERATING THE SWELL. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL CONCERNS WITH
THE MODELS POTENTIALLY OVER-FORECASTING THIS SWELL FOR THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COAST. EVEN THE GLOBAL WAVE DATA SHOWS ATTENUATION AND
DATA GAPS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW I AM CONTENT
WITH THE NWPS OUTPUT WHICH CAPS THE SWELL AT 3 FT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED TOWARDS SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES AND
ANCHORAGES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE
SWELL HEIGHT IS LARGER. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ001-002-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ410-450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 281207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
507 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 281207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
507 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN











000
FXUS65 KPSR 281207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
507 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE PERIODIC LOW VFR
CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT BROKEN CIGS AT
5-6K FEET LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FEW-SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW LOW VFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN











000
FXUS66 KMTR 281205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND
MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH
0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE-
QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND
MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH
0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE-
QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281205
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND
MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH
0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE-
QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:05 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PROMOTING SHOWERS IN AND
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA. COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
PERIODIC IN NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WET RUNWAYS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...REACHING 10 TO 15 KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281120
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
320 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TWO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERS ARE ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER SAN MATEO...SANTA CRUZ AND
MONTEREY COUNTIES. MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
MONTEREY COUNTY...MOUNT TORO HAS PICKED UP THE MOST THUS FAR WITH
0.35 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
TODAY...BUT CONTINUE TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA WITH ONE-
QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY END BY
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA
AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
WITH PRECIP EXITING THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS WILL
USHER IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM TRACK MOVE

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION ON NW WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON SATURDAY INCREASES THE
CHANCES THAT SMALL HAIL ACCOMPANIES ANY PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 20Z SATURDAY. VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PST SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY PROMOTING A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY. THE DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105 CCA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS...THE 06Z NAM-12 HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300
JOULES/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF
COALINGA...AND THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AS THE FLOW LIFTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY ARE FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E
IS FORECAST TO BE 296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
BORDER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OF FRIDAY EVENING HAS TAPERED
OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND DID GET ONE REPORT OF SMALL HAIL NEAR
BASS LAKE AROUND 10Z /0200 PST/.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND
THE LOW PUSHING CELLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY LIGHT...COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. /ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OVER
PORTERVILLE FRIDAY EVENING DROPPED 0.08 INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES./

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORMS..THE 06Z NAM-12V HAS WIDESPREAD SURFACE-
COMPUTED CAPES OF 200-400 JOULES/KG NORTH OF KERN COUNTY BY 21Z
/1300 PST/ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED SURFACE LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH A CAPER OF 300 JOULES/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3 OVER THE DIABLO RANGE WEST OF COALINGA...AND
THE NAM-12 MAY BE PICKING UP ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE FLOW LIFTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 500-MB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ARE
FORECAST TO BE -23 TO -28 C...AND 850-MB THETA-E IS FORECAST TO BE
296 TO 301 K. WITH THESE PARAMETERS...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PEA-SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A FUNNEL CLOUD.

ONE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE START TIME OFF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHICH WAS ISSUED MAINLY FOR
THE IMPACT OF SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE AND TEHACHAPI PASS. AT THIS TIME
ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE TOPS OF THE PASSES BEFORE 00Z
SUNDAY /1600 PST THIS AFTERNOON/...BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN TIMING OR
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER POINT CONCEPTION BY 06Z SUNDAY
/2200 PST TONIGHT/...WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIFTED OVER
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE GRAPEVINE AND THE
SAN EMIGDIO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING FRAZIER PARK AND PINE MOUNTAIN
CLUB.

A SECOND LOW IS DROPPING DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS LATER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY /1600 PST MONDAY/ AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE INVERSION
FORMS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AS HISTORICALLY
THE TULE FOG SEASON CAN RUN INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO
THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281005
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281005
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 281005
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281005
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER OREGON WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE LOW HAS STARTED ADVECTING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWATS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA...EVEN
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THIS MORNING...THERE WAS ONLY A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 09Z
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME FRIDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COUPLE OF THINGS TO ADDRESS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD...DEEPEN...AND RETROGRADE WEST OF SAN DIEGO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET HOWEVER THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN SIGNALS IN
THIS MORNING`S 00Z GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PHOENIX METRO.

CONCEPTUALLY...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AS THE LOW IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY AND HAS YET TO
TAP INTO THE DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OPERATIONAL 18Z AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND IS ALSO WITHIN
THE WINDOW OF THE LATEST /07Z AND 08Z/ HRRR RUNS. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ALONG WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. NOT
GOING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX
AREA AS THERE COULD EASILY BE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
METRO. BUT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY LOOKS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET.

BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT
STILL TOO FAR NORTH TO TAP INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA SPUR. THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SW ARIZONA
WON`T OCCUR UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FOLLOWING THAT TREND...PRECIP ISN`T
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA UNTIL MUCH LATER AS WELL
/SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING/. THUS I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS/QPF AND FLOOD WATCH TIMING FOR THIS EVENT TO BETTER MATCH THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. I`M NOT REMOVING POPS
ALTOGETHER FOR THE PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY BUT DRASTICALLY TRIMMING
VALUES AND HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE
PRIME-TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS DURING THIS SUNDAY
EVENING-MONDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE 80-100 PERCENT
RANGE AS THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS A KICK FROM ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH. ALSO NOTED A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REDUCTION IN
ENSEMBLE QPF THIS MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST MEMBERS INDICATING AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIP IN THE PHOENIX AREA...WITH A MEAN MORE IN THE
0.5-0.75 INCH REALM. PERHAPS THIS IS A RESULT OF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH VS THE SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED
DEPICTION THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
ESPECIALLY IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH BUT I WILL MAKE SOME REDUCTIONS TO
THE TOTAL QPF FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL ADJUST THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN FROM 5 PM SUNDAY
TO 5 PM MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BUT ONE MORE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX BUT
STILL THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERTS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
20-30 POPS AROUND PHOENIX AND 40-50 POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER THAT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RIDGING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR LOWEST VALUES ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AZZ021>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS66 KMTR 280558
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA STARTING THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERING
OVER THE AREA DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AN INVERSION CAP AT 850 MB WHICH PREVENTED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS SO ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO
FALL MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT AND PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
WATER AND PICKS UP EXTRA MOISTURE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH
WILL GET MOST OF THE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA
WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK.
LATEST MODELS NOW TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT
WILL TRACK TOO FAR WEST SO THAT THE SHOWERS STAY OFFSHORE. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR LESS THAN THIS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART WELL TO THE SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CONUS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION ON NW WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON SATURDAY INCREASES THE
CHANCES THAT SMALL HAIL ACCOMPANIES ANY PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 20Z SATURDAY. VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:14 PM PST FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280558
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA STARTING THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERING
OVER THE AREA DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AN INVERSION CAP AT 850 MB WHICH PREVENTED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS SO ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO
FALL MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT AND PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
WATER AND PICKS UP EXTRA MOISTURE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH
WILL GET MOST OF THE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA
WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK.
LATEST MODELS NOW TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT
WILL TRACK TOO FAR WEST SO THAT THE SHOWERS STAY OFFSHORE. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR LESS THAN THIS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART WELL TO THE SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CONUS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION ON NW WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON SATURDAY INCREASES THE
CHANCES THAT SMALL HAIL ACCOMPANIES ANY PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 20Z SATURDAY. VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:14 PM PST FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280558
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA STARTING THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERING
OVER THE AREA DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AN INVERSION CAP AT 850 MB WHICH PREVENTED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS SO ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO
FALL MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT AND PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
WATER AND PICKS UP EXTRA MOISTURE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTH
WILL GET MOST OF THE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SFO BAY AREA
WITH ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH TO THE SOUTH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SFO BAY AREA DURING THE
NIGHT SATURDAY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SFO BAY
AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET SO COULD SEE A DUSTING OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH STILL THE CHANCE FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK.
LATEST MODELS NOW TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT
WILL TRACK TOO FAR WEST SO THAT THE SHOWERS STAY OFFSHORE. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR LESS THAN THIS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART WELL TO THE SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES BACK NORTH OF THE CONUS. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:52 PM PST FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION ON NW WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE AREA ON SATURDAY INCREASES THE
CHANCES THAT SMALL HAIL ACCOMPANIES ANY PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 20Z SATURDAY. VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/VFR. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:14 PM PST FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 1 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 10 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA/MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system will move across California this weekend, leading to
cooler and wetter weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains
above 3500 feet, and more so above 5000 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Active evening across portions of NorCal with thunderstorms
producing copious amounts of small hail over Glenn and Butte
counties during the afternoon and the foothill areas this evening.
Numerous reports of hail accumulations of several inches have been
received. Snow levels are currently around 5000 feet and will fall
to 4000 feet by morning. Have adjusted mountain precip/snow
amounts to align better with current radar trends and short range
HRRR model. As a result have extended winter weather advisory
down to 5000 feet and increased snow amounts...with 4-8 inches now
foretasted to 5000 feet including Blue Canyon along Interstate 80.
Given the convective nature of the precip would not be surprised
to see isolated amounts to a foot or more...but these won`t be
widespread enough to reach warning levels. Showers over Butte and
Yuba counties are foretasted to shift south and expand over
Sacramento and Placer counties after midnight as shown by HRRR.
Have updated forecast to increase precip chances and amounts over
the Sierra through noon Saturday.

.Previous Discussion...
Precip continues to be highly scattered in nature this afternoon
although is expanding in coverage over the past few hours. Latest
hires guidance still depicts convective nature to showers with
more widespread precip confined to the mountains. Moisture fairly
limited, esp in the valley. Showers will continue to be hit-or-
miss in the valley through Saturday with some locations staying
dry. Again, cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two this afternoon
and again on Saturday afternoon but threat remains relatively low
given lack of moisture and marginal instability. Snow levels are
around 6000 feet early this afternoon and will drop to near
3500-4000 feet on Saturday. Total accumulations of 4-8 inches
expected above 5500 feet with some locally higher totals along
highest elevations. Elevations below 5500 ft may see some light
accumulations but amounts will be limited. Saw a few accidents on
I-80 near pass levels earlier this morning with hardly any snow
falling so still expecting some travel headaches as showers get
going later this evening into tonight and weekend travel picks up.
Advisory remains intact and will continue until 1 pm Saturday at
which time it can be reevaluated by later shifts. Precip will
begin to taper off Saturday night as northerly winds develop
although a few snow showers may linger over the central Sierra
into early Sunday morning. Dry weather then briefly returns for
Sunday with clearing skies, some locally breezy north winds, and
temperatures in the mid 60s in the valley and 40s to 50s in the
mountains.

Next system quickly moves thru on its way to SoCal for Monday into
early Tuesday. Moisture is even less than current system with PWAT
values topping out around a quarter of an inch. Early estimates
for QPF totals range from a hundredth or two in the valley to
around a quarter inch in the mountains. Best chances for any
precip look to be across the Sierra again with snow levels around
4000 feet. Could see a couple of inches but not expecting major
impacts.

CEO

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures expected
through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging off the
West Coast builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley
expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for
the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low drops S ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with areas MVFR/IFR
poss in shwrs...mnly omtns. Isold aftn/eve -tsra/tsrags poss again Sat.
SN lvls arnd 055 tngt lwrg to nr 035 Sat mrng. Lcl W-NWly sfc wnd
gsts to arnd 25 kts poss ovr hyr trrn tngt into Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst saturday above 5000 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.

&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 280555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system will move across California this weekend, leading to
cooler and wetter weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains
above 3500 feet, and more so above 5000 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Active evening across portions of NorCal with thunderstorms
producing copious amounts of small hail over Glenn and Butte
counties during the afternoon and the foothill areas this evening.
Numerous reports of hail accumulations of several inches have been
received. Snow levels are currently around 5000 feet and will fall
to 4000 feet by morning. Have adjusted mountain precip/snow
amounts to align better with current radar trends and short range
HRRR model. As a result have extended winter weather advisory
down to 5000 feet and increased snow amounts...with 4-8 inches now
foretasted to 5000 feet including Blue Canyon along Interstate 80.
Given the convective nature of the precip would not be surprised
to see isolated amounts to a foot or more...but these won`t be
widespread enough to reach warning levels. Showers over Butte and
Yuba counties are foretasted to shift south and expand over
Sacramento and Placer counties after midnight as shown by HRRR.
Have updated forecast to increase precip chances and amounts over
the Sierra through noon Saturday.

.Previous Discussion...
Precip continues to be highly scattered in nature this afternoon
although is expanding in coverage over the past few hours. Latest
hires guidance still depicts convective nature to showers with
more widespread precip confined to the mountains. Moisture fairly
limited, esp in the valley. Showers will continue to be hit-or-
miss in the valley through Saturday with some locations staying
dry. Again, cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two this afternoon
and again on Saturday afternoon but threat remains relatively low
given lack of moisture and marginal instability. Snow levels are
around 6000 feet early this afternoon and will drop to near
3500-4000 feet on Saturday. Total accumulations of 4-8 inches
expected above 5500 feet with some locally higher totals along
highest elevations. Elevations below 5500 ft may see some light
accumulations but amounts will be limited. Saw a few accidents on
I-80 near pass levels earlier this morning with hardly any snow
falling so still expecting some travel headaches as showers get
going later this evening into tonight and weekend travel picks up.
Advisory remains intact and will continue until 1 pm Saturday at
which time it can be reevaluated by later shifts. Precip will
begin to taper off Saturday night as northerly winds develop
although a few snow showers may linger over the central Sierra
into early Sunday morning. Dry weather then briefly returns for
Sunday with clearing skies, some locally breezy north winds, and
temperatures in the mid 60s in the valley and 40s to 50s in the
mountains.

Next system quickly moves thru on its way to SoCal for Monday into
early Tuesday. Moisture is even less than current system with PWAT
values topping out around a quarter of an inch. Early estimates
for QPF totals range from a hundredth or two in the valley to
around a quarter inch in the mountains. Best chances for any
precip look to be across the Sierra again with snow levels around
4000 feet. Could see a couple of inches but not expecting major
impacts.

CEO

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures expected
through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging off the
West Coast builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley
expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for
the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low drops S ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with areas MVFR/IFR
poss in shwrs...mnly omtns. Isold aftn/eve -tsra/tsrags poss again Sat.
SN lvls arnd 055 tngt lwrg to nr 035 Sat mrng. Lcl W-NWly sfc wnd
gsts to arnd 25 kts poss ovr hyr trrn tngt into Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst saturday above 5000 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 280555
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Synopsis...
A weather system will move across California this weekend, leading to
cooler and wetter weather. Snow will impact travel in the mountains
above 3500 feet, and more so above 5000 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Active evening across portions of NorCal with thunderstorms
producing copious amounts of small hail over Glenn and Butte
counties during the afternoon and the foothill areas this evening.
Numerous reports of hail accumulations of several inches have been
received. Snow levels are currently around 5000 feet and will fall
to 4000 feet by morning. Have adjusted mountain precip/snow
amounts to align better with current radar trends and short range
HRRR model. As a result have extended winter weather advisory
down to 5000 feet and increased snow amounts...with 4-8 inches now
foretasted to 5000 feet including Blue Canyon along Interstate 80.
Given the convective nature of the precip would not be surprised
to see isolated amounts to a foot or more...but these won`t be
widespread enough to reach warning levels. Showers over Butte and
Yuba counties are foretasted to shift south and expand over
Sacramento and Placer counties after midnight as shown by HRRR.
Have updated forecast to increase precip chances and amounts over
the Sierra through noon Saturday.

.Previous Discussion...
Precip continues to be highly scattered in nature this afternoon
although is expanding in coverage over the past few hours. Latest
hires guidance still depicts convective nature to showers with
more widespread precip confined to the mountains. Moisture fairly
limited, esp in the valley. Showers will continue to be hit-or-
miss in the valley through Saturday with some locations staying
dry. Again, cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two this afternoon
and again on Saturday afternoon but threat remains relatively low
given lack of moisture and marginal instability. Snow levels are
around 6000 feet early this afternoon and will drop to near
3500-4000 feet on Saturday. Total accumulations of 4-8 inches
expected above 5500 feet with some locally higher totals along
highest elevations. Elevations below 5500 ft may see some light
accumulations but amounts will be limited. Saw a few accidents on
I-80 near pass levels earlier this morning with hardly any snow
falling so still expecting some travel headaches as showers get
going later this evening into tonight and weekend travel picks up.
Advisory remains intact and will continue until 1 pm Saturday at
which time it can be reevaluated by later shifts. Precip will
begin to taper off Saturday night as northerly winds develop
although a few snow showers may linger over the central Sierra
into early Sunday morning. Dry weather then briefly returns for
Sunday with clearing skies, some locally breezy north winds, and
temperatures in the mid 60s in the valley and 40s to 50s in the
mountains.

Next system quickly moves thru on its way to SoCal for Monday into
early Tuesday. Moisture is even less than current system with PWAT
values topping out around a quarter of an inch. Early estimates
for QPF totals range from a hundredth or two in the valley to
around a quarter inch in the mountains. Best chances for any
precip look to be across the Sierra again with snow levels around
4000 feet. Could see a couple of inches but not expecting major
impacts.

CEO

&&


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models trending drier for Tuesday as subsidence increases under
Northerly flow aloft. Dry weather with warmer temperatures expected
through the remainder of the week as upper level ridging off the
West Coast builds inland. High temperatures in the Central Valley
expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly 50s to 60s for
the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr low drops S ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with areas MVFR/IFR
poss in shwrs...mnly omtns. Isold aftn/eve -tsra/tsrags poss again Sat.
SN lvls arnd 055 tngt lwrg to nr 035 Sat mrng. Lcl W-NWly sfc wnd
gsts to arnd 25 kts poss ovr hyr trrn tngt into Sat.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst saturday above 5000 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280543 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...AS A STRONG COLD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

...A PROLONGED WET WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS TO MUCH OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
CENTER NOW PASSING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS SO FAR
FOR OUR CWA HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW-LY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE CA...WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST 00Z NAM
AND GFS MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALSO CONTINUING A TREND
TOWARD A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...A TREND THAT HAS
BEEN GOING ON OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THIS TREND IS DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME DOES NOT REALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
SE CA/AZ UNTIL AN UPSTREAM KICKER BEGINS TO APPROACH IT FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IS NOT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SO...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL
AT RISK OF SEEING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT MAY TURN OUT TO MORE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY RATHER THAN
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO AWAIT FUTURE SHIFTS/MODEL RUNS TO REFINE THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
IS CONCERNED...INHERITED PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...OTHER THAN
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A
120-130KT 300-250MB JET THAT CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM
CWA-WIDE...WITH PHOENIX TOPPING OUT AT 78 DEGREES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK THAT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...ALL DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND BLYTHE.

THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...IMPORTED INTO THE REGION ON 35-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB LLJ... WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ROUGHLY 0.3 INCHES
TODAY TO AROUND 1.0 INCH...WITH INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ONCE
THE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD CORE
TEMPS AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...PEAK TIME STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW PLACES THE BEST PLUME OF
MOISTURE/P-WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.0IN MAINLY THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND UP TO 3.0 INCHES
OR MORE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX
THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FLOWS IN WASHES AND CREEKS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE TONTO CREEK NEAR PUNKIN CENTER IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND ALONG THE AGUA FRIA/NEW RIVER AND CAVE CREEK DRAINAGES
NEAR NEW RIVER/ANTHEM IN NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME CONCERN
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE SYCAMORE CREEK AREA NEAR
SUNFLOWER...AND EVEN THE CENTENNIAL WASH OUT BY THE COMMUNITY OF
WENDEN IN LA PAZ COUNTY WEST OF PHOENIX. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THESE DESCRIBED AREAS ABOVE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOWER DESERTS
AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST Q CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE
ELEVATED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO DREW IN THE HIGHEST QPF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST OF PHOENIX
BY MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND AND THERE SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EAST OF
PHOENIX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND 6000FT MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL....MAYBE 1-3 INCHES TOTAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON TUESDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...
5500FT BY THIS TIME...SO COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE PARTICULARLY COOL WITH HIGHS BARELY GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID WEEK AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
THE PHX AREA TERMINALS WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE NORMAL SE-LY DRAINAGE
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15KT POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY SAT
AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER SCT CLOUD LAYERS TO DEVELOP
AT AROUND 5-6K FEET FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THESE
CLOUDS LIKELY BEING MIXED OUT FOR A TIME ON SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
REDEVELOPING SAT EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF FEW-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT KSDL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS GOING AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KBLH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KT...AND
EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON SAT AT
BOTH TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
BASES DROPPING AS LOW AS 5K FT ON SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MINIMUM VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERTS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     AZZ022>024.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     AZZ021.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280521
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LARGE-SCALE 500 MB TROUGH ENVELOPES NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
THIS EVENING WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEEKND AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE
WEST COAST STALLS OFF THE SO-CAL COAST. THE INSIDE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM DRY AT THE ONSET...BUT AS THE TRACK
CURVES WESTWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS IT WILL CAPTURE
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SO-CAL THAN TO NOR-CAL.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER PT
CONCEPTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SO-CAL. 500 MB TEMPS FALL TO
MINUS 27C WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FROM 1.50 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES IN THE UPPER DESERTS. THE LOWER DESERTS WILL ONLY SEE 0.05 TO
0.25 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4500 FEET SUNDAY...AND THEN TO 4000 FEET MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES FROM 5000-7000 FEET...AND
FROM 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
DRY...WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

.AVIATION...

280430Z...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYERS 1500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT EVENING...OBSCURING THE
COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MTNS...BECOMING HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS 3 SM OR LESS AND CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT MSL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE DESERTS...CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 5000 FT MSL WITH ISOLATED VIS 5SM IN
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

WEST WINDS 20-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...THROUGH
AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO ADJACENT
DESERT FOOTHILLS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE STG-SVR UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING SAT EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

835 PM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT AND STEEP
SEAS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM SAT.  A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
STORM MOVES THROUGH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A WINTER STORM MOVES
THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WATERSPOUTS. FOR FORECAST DETAILS...SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...SS




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAKER
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ARRIVING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...PLENTY OF STRATOCU COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL VLY WHICH PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIP. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SWRN CA THRU THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM NRN CA. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCED GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING...AND THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE
ALSO GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS AFFECTING THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 10 PM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S ON SAT TO A POSITION AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TO A POSITION OVER SBA
COUNTY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON
MON. THESE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT THRU SUN
EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO MON. COLD...UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT (500
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 TO -28 DEG C) WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SAT THRU SUN EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY WEATHER SYSTEM AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE. OVERALL...0.10 TO 0.50 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD BE UP TO AN INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS
AND UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE MTNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 5000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON...TO 4000 FEET
SAT NIGHT...AND TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MTNS...WITH
6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...4-8 INCHES
FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES DOWN TO 5000 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000 FEET
MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...THERE MAY BE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OVER ON THE I-5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTNS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON TO LATE SUN NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD TOTAL 0.10
TO 0.25 INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DOWN TO 4500 FEET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER SWRN
CA...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THRU MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE UPPER LOW THAT ZIPS IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
LOW AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT AS
STRONG OR DEEP SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LESS. HEIGHT
RISES MOVE IN ON TUESDAY TO START A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND PEAKING THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0015Z.

AT 2305Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4700 FEET DEEP...THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FT WITH A TEMP OF 7 DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING
THE DAY ON SAT FOR MANY AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS MAY BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL ON SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX...KSBP AND KSBA THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT KSBA FROM 02Z-09Z.
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL AFFECT KPRB AND KWJF THRU SAT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT INTO SAT
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT AND SAT
EVENING WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL SAT EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT...WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ670/673...AND TO 9 AM SAT FOR PZZ676. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE TO GALE OR NEAR-GALE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655 THROUGH MID MORNING SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TO CATALINA
ISLAND...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT PERIOD
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH CHOPPY SEAS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAKER
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ARRIVING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...PLENTY OF STRATOCU COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL VLY WHICH PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIP. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SWRN CA THRU THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM NRN CA. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCED GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING...AND THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE
ALSO GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS AFFECTING THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 10 PM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S ON SAT TO A POSITION AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TO A POSITION OVER SBA
COUNTY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON
MON. THESE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT THRU SUN
EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO MON. COLD...UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT (500
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 TO -28 DEG C) WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SAT THRU SUN EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY WEATHER SYSTEM AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE. OVERALL...0.10 TO 0.50 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD BE UP TO AN INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS
AND UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE MTNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 5000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON...TO 4000 FEET
SAT NIGHT...AND TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MTNS...WITH
6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...4-8 INCHES
FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES DOWN TO 5000 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000 FEET
MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...THERE MAY BE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OVER ON THE I-5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTNS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON TO LATE SUN NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD TOTAL 0.10
TO 0.25 INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DOWN TO 4500 FEET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER SWRN
CA...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THRU MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE UPPER LOW THAT ZIPS IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
LOW AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT AS
STRONG OR DEEP SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LESS. HEIGHT
RISES MOVE IN ON TUESDAY TO START A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND PEAKING THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0015Z.

AT 2305Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4700 FEET DEEP...THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FT WITH A TEMP OF 7 DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING
THE DAY ON SAT FOR MANY AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS MAY BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL ON SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX...KSBP AND KSBA THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT KSBA FROM 02Z-09Z.
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL AFFECT KPRB AND KWJF THRU SAT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT INTO SAT
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT AND SAT
EVENING WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL SAT EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT...WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ670/673...AND TO 9 AM SAT FOR PZZ676. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE TO GALE OR NEAR-GALE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655 THROUGH MID MORNING SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TO CATALINA
ISLAND...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT PERIOD
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH CHOPPY SEAS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAKER
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ARRIVING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...PLENTY OF STRATOCU COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL VLY WHICH PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIP. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SWRN CA THRU THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM NRN CA. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCED GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING...AND THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE
ALSO GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS AFFECTING THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 10 PM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S ON SAT TO A POSITION AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TO A POSITION OVER SBA
COUNTY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON
MON. THESE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT THRU SUN
EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO MON. COLD...UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT (500
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 TO -28 DEG C) WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SAT THRU SUN EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY WEATHER SYSTEM AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE. OVERALL...0.10 TO 0.50 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD BE UP TO AN INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS
AND UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE MTNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 5000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON...TO 4000 FEET
SAT NIGHT...AND TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MTNS...WITH
6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...4-8 INCHES
FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES DOWN TO 5000 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000 FEET
MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...THERE MAY BE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OVER ON THE I-5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTNS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON TO LATE SUN NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD TOTAL 0.10
TO 0.25 INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DOWN TO 4500 FEET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER SWRN
CA...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THRU MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE UPPER LOW THAT ZIPS IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
LOW AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT AS
STRONG OR DEEP SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LESS. HEIGHT
RISES MOVE IN ON TUESDAY TO START A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND PEAKING THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0015Z.

AT 2305Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4700 FEET DEEP...THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FT WITH A TEMP OF 7 DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING
THE DAY ON SAT FOR MANY AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS MAY BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL ON SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX...KSBP AND KSBA THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT KSBA FROM 02Z-09Z.
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL AFFECT KPRB AND KWJF THRU SAT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT INTO SAT
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT AND SAT
EVENING WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL SAT EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT...WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ670/673...AND TO 9 AM SAT FOR PZZ676. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE TO GALE OR NEAR-GALE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655 THROUGH MID MORNING SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TO CATALINA
ISLAND...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT PERIOD
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH CHOPPY SEAS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 280519
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAKER
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ARRIVING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...PLENTY OF STRATOCU COVERED THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER
THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL VLY WHICH PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIP. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SWRN CA THRU THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM NRN CA. GOOD ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCED GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING...AND THESE WINDS MAY PERSIST
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. THERE WERE
ALSO GUSTY NW TO N CANYON WINDS AFFECTING THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS
THIS EVENING...WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 10 PM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE S ON SAT TO A POSITION AROUND
MONTEREY COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TO A POSITION OVER SBA
COUNTY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E SUN
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON
MON. THESE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT THRU SUN
EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS INTO MON. COLD...UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT (500
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 TO -28 DEG C) WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SAT THRU SUN EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY WEATHER SYSTEM AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE. OVERALL...0.10 TO 0.50 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
COAST AND VLYS...WITH 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD BE UP TO AN INCH FOR THE COAST AND VLYS
AND UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE MTNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 5000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON...TO 4000 FEET
SAT NIGHT...AND TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SUN. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MTNS...WITH
6-12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET...4-8 INCHES
FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES DOWN TO 5000 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO 4000 FEET
MAINLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...THERE MAY BE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OVER ON THE I-5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MTNS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON TO LATE SUN NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON COULD TOTAL 0.10
TO 0.25 INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DOWN TO 4500 FEET.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH THE COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER SWRN
CA...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THRU MON.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE UPPER LOW THAT ZIPS IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
LOW AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS NOT AS
STRONG OR DEEP SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LESS. HEIGHT
RISES MOVE IN ON TUESDAY TO START A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND PEAKING THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0015Z.

AT 2305Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AT 4700 FEET DEEP...THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 6300 FT WITH A TEMP OF 7 DEG C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING
THE DAY ON SAT FOR MANY AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS MAY BE
INTERMITTENT AT TIMES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SAT WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL ON SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT KSMX...KSBP AND KSBA THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT KSBA FROM 02Z-09Z.
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS WILL AFFECT KPRB AND KWJF THRU SAT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT INTO SAT
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT AND SAT
EVENING WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL SAT EVENING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE 00Z TAF. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD THRU SAT...WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS. HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR PZZ670/673...AND TO 9 AM SAT FOR PZZ676. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASE TO GALE OR NEAR-GALE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PZZ650/655 THROUGH MID MORNING SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS TO CATALINA
ISLAND...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT PERIOD
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH CHOPPY SEAS...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280503
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
903 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA STARTING THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERING
OVER THE AREA DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. OAK SOUNDING
SHOWS AN INVERSION CAP AT 850 MB WHICH PREVENTED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOUDS SO ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO
FALL MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT AND PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
WATER AND PICKS UP EXTRA MOISTURE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
T