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000
FXUS65 KPSR 161620
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ARE ALREADY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S AS OF 9
AM MST. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO COOL TO NEAR MONDAY NIGHTS READINGS. CLOUD
COVER TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS BUT
SHOULD BE CONFINED AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 18K FT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN NATURE TO TUESDAY...REACHING A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AND STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 317 AM MST 16 APRIL/...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY
THE FOUR CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH
VALUES FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 161620
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ARE ALREADY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S AS OF 9
AM MST. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO COOL TO NEAR MONDAY NIGHTS READINGS. CLOUD
COVER TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS BUT
SHOULD BE CONFINED AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 18K FT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN NATURE TO TUESDAY...REACHING A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY AND STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD SO NO UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 317 AM MST 16 APRIL/...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY
THE FOUR CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
READINGS TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C
RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH
VALUES FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 161615
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
915 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.Synopsis...
Breezy northerly winds developing today in the valley. A slight
chance of showers over the mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday
and possibly over the Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday evening.
Temperatures above normal through Sunday then may cool to around
normal early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern moving
over the region.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure over the area today with mostly sunny skies
and continued above normal temperatures. Locally Breezy and gusty
Northerly winds expected today with MFR-SAC surface pressure
gradient around 9 mb. Winds should decrease this afternoon and
turn southerly tonight with an approaching trough. Temperatures
this afternoon should warm up into the low to mid 80s in the
Valley and 60s to 70s in the mountains which is about 10 to 15
degrees above normal for mid April.

The ridge of high pressure shifts to the east tonight and an upper
level trough approaches and then moves through Thursday afternoon
into Friday. This will bring cooler temperatures Thursday and
Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in the valley and
50s and 60s in the mountains. Precipitable waters increase to
around an inch Thursday afternoon into Friday indicating some
moisture with this system for a slight chance to chance of showers
over the mountains and possibly the Northern Sacramento Valley.
Snow levels are expected to be around 9000 ft. Precipitation
amount are generally expected to be less than a tenth of an inch.
Thunderstorms are possible along the Sierra...mainly south of
Highway 50 Friday afternoon and evening with energy rotating
around the low over Southern California.

Another trough may move onshore into the Pacific Northwest and possibly
brush by the far North on Saturday. Although the GFS keeps this
farther north and linger showers in the far SE corner of the CWA.
So there is some uncertainty in a slight chance of light
precipitation over the mountains for Saturday. Temperatures on
Saturday should be around 80 in the Valley and mid 50s to low 70s
in the mountains.


.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

All models showing a large upper level low dropping southward
from the Gulf of Alaska towards the West Coast in the extended
forecast. Details of this system are not consistent across the
models, but a pattern change is expected. Sunday should remain
fairly dry and warm, but wetter and cooler conditions are expected
to arrive by Monday. The low could start bringing light
precipitation to Coastal & Northern mountains late Sunday. Showers
will then spread southward across our CWA Monday into Tuesday.
Valley highs will go from the low to mid 80s on Sunday cooling to
mid-upper 70s on Monday and upper 60s-low 70s by Tuesday.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Generally VFR conditions for valley TAF sites next 24 hours.
Northerly winds will be enhanced through 22z with sustained winds
10-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. Strongest winds will be along
the western side of the northern/central Sacramento Valley. Winds
become light again after 0z as VFR conditions continue.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 161604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND
VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. COOLER ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONSHORE FLOW...A COASTAL EDDY AND A 2000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD
25-30 MILES INLAND. THE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOW BEGINNING TO BURN
OFF. HOWEVER...A 7-DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION COULD RESULT IN SLOW
CLEARING TODAY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE BEACHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR WITH SEASONAL TEMPS TODAY. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE +4.1 SAN-DAG AND +5.9 SAN-IPL...PRODUCING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A COASTAL EDDY
WILL CONTINUE THE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THU. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S WEST OF THE MTNS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE DESERTS AS LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REFLECTS DOWN TO THE SFC.

FOR FRI AND SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPS...STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON FRI AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND...BUT A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR SUN AND MON...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVR SOCAL. THIS
WILL BRING SOME WARMING...MAINLY INLAND...ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER FOR LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

FOR TUE AND WED...GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND
TO THE NORTH...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING NOTICEABLE COOLING AND COULD BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. IT MAY EVEN
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP ON WED. HOWEVER...THAT IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
161439Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS 20-35 SM INLAND...WITH BASES
1300-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS 2100-2300 FT MSL...WILL CLEAR TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-17/0000 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS
AND MOSTLY SKC. 17/0000-0300 UTC...STRATUS MOVING BACK INLAND 10-15
SM...EVENTUALLY REACHING 20-35 SM INLAND BY 17/1200 UTC. BASES WILL
BE 1400-1700 FT MSL...TOPS 2200-2400 FT MSL...AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KONT AGAIN. ALSO...EXPECT AREAS OF VIS
3-5SM...WITH LOCAL VIS 1-2SM IN THE VICINITY OF KONT/KCNO/KRAL AND
KRNM.

MTNS/DESERTS.....UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE WATCH 3 SHOWS POSSIBLE LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELLS AND STRONG
COASTAL WATER WINDS NEXT TUESDAY DUE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND
VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. COOLER ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ONSHORE FLOW...A COASTAL EDDY AND A 2000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER
ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD
25-30 MILES INLAND. THE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOW BEGINNING TO BURN
OFF. HOWEVER...A 7-DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION COULD RESULT IN SLOW
CLEARING TODAY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE BEACHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR WITH SEASONAL TEMPS TODAY. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE +4.1 SAN-DAG AND +5.9 SAN-IPL...PRODUCING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A COASTAL EDDY
WILL CONTINUE THE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THU. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S WEST OF THE MTNS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE DESERTS AS LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REFLECTS DOWN TO THE SFC.

FOR FRI AND SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER TEMPS...STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ON FRI AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND...BUT A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR SUN AND MON...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVR SOCAL. THIS
WILL BRING SOME WARMING...MAINLY INLAND...ALONG WITH A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER FOR LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

FOR TUE AND WED...GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND
TO THE NORTH...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING NOTICEABLE COOLING AND COULD BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. IT MAY EVEN
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP ON WED. HOWEVER...THAT IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
161439Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS 20-35 SM INLAND...WITH BASES
1300-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS 2100-2300 FT MSL...WILL CLEAR TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-17/0000 UTC...UNRESTRICTED VIS
AND MOSTLY SKC. 17/0000-0300 UTC...STRATUS MOVING BACK INLAND 10-15
SM...EVENTUALLY REACHING 20-35 SM INLAND BY 17/1200 UTC. BASES WILL
BE 1400-1700 FT MSL...TOPS 2200-2400 FT MSL...AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KONT AGAIN. ALSO...EXPECT AREAS OF VIS
3-5SM...WITH LOCAL VIS 1-2SM IN THE VICINITY OF KONT/KCNO/KRAL AND
KRNM.

MTNS/DESERTS.....UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WAVE WATCH 3 SHOWS POSSIBLE LARGE SHORT-PERIOD SWELLS AND STRONG
COASTAL WATER WINDS NEXT TUESDAY DUE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 161530
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 161530
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 161150
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1200Z

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAFS FOR COAST AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS AFFECT MUCH OF THE COAST AND SOME
OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LIFR N OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND IFR TO LOW MVFR FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT THE LAYER TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN DURING THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. 40% CHANCE
STRATUS WILL AFFECT THE SAN FERNANDO AND SALINAS VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE 17Z THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
STRATUS RETURN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CIGS MAY DISSIPATE +/- 2
HR FROM TAF TIME OF 17Z. 40% CHANCE OF LOW CIGS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 161134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 161134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 161134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 161134
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 161134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
LEVELS CLOSE TO FORECAST ACROSS VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY.
ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE DECOUPLING ACROSS THAT AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DID WORD
TEMPERATURE RANGE AS MID TO UPPER 30S. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
MOSTLY LIGHT FOG COVER MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER
VALLEY AREAS...EXTENDING N TO NEAR TRINIDAD. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND BY EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW TODAY...THEN SHIFT E
ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD S
CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO THU AFTERNOON THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF
DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED
STATES. THIS TROF HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS REDUCING CEILINGS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND GENERATING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS66 KEKA 161134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
LEVELS CLOSE TO FORECAST ACROSS VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY.
ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE DECOUPLING ACROSS THAT AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DID WORD
TEMPERATURE RANGE AS MID TO UPPER 30S. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
MOSTLY LIGHT FOG COVER MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER
VALLEY AREAS...EXTENDING N TO NEAR TRINIDAD. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND BY EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW TODAY...THEN SHIFT E
ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD S
CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO THU AFTERNOON THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF
DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED
STATES. THIS TROF HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS REDUCING CEILINGS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND GENERATING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS66 KEKA 161134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
LEVELS CLOSE TO FORECAST ACROSS VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY.
ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE DECOUPLING ACROSS THAT AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE KEPT FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DID WORD
TEMPERATURE RANGE AS MID TO UPPER 30S. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF
MOSTLY LIGHT FOG COVER MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER
VALLEY AREAS...EXTENDING N TO NEAR TRINIDAD. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND BY EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW TODAY...THEN SHIFT E
ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES TOWARD S
CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO THU AFTERNOON THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...WITH STORM TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY.

MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF
DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED
STATES. THIS TROF HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS REDUCING CEILINGS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND GENERATING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 161134 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
433 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND OUT OF THE WEST
A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY AND COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR
20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL TAKE ON THEIR USUAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. IF ANYTHING...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN LIEU OF A
MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAIN. STILL...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED WITH THIS TROUGH AND IT DOESNT APPEAR ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.

BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK...NOW BOTH
THE EURO/GFS INDICATING A LARGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT CHANCES OF A WETTING RAIN STILL LOOK
REMOTE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS66 KMTR 161129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 161129
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KSTO 161109
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
409 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.Synopsis...
Breezy northerly winds developing today in the valley. A slight
chance of showers over the mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday
and possibly over the Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday evening.
Temperatures above normal through Sunday then may cool to around
normal early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern moving
over the region.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
The forecast continues to be driven by a progressive upper air
pattern over the Ern Pacific and West Coast as a series of
trofs/ridges affects Norcal wx for the rest of the week. The minor
impact today will be the Nly winds that are expected to develop in
the late morning and lasting into the afternoon...and decreasing
late afternoon. Otherwise...mostly dry wx and above normal max temps
continuing for the rest of the work week...albeit for a slight
chance of showers Thu into Fri mainly mtns and in Nrn Sac vly Thu
nite.

While the main short wave energy over the Nrn Rockys moves SEwd
today...secondary energy embedded in the NWly flow aloft from the
rebuilding Ern Pac ridge in the wake of the main short wave is
forecast to dig into the Great Basin today. This short wave is
tracking farther E and is weaker so it will have less of an affect
on our pressure gradients. The forecast Nly pressure gradients are
just a little shy of our rule-of-thumb for wind advisory criteria...
especially the RDD-SAC gradient which is forecast to be 2+ mbs
when we would like to see at least 4 mbs. The NAM 925 mbs winds
(~2 kft) peak out in the 25+ kt range from 12z-18z Wed...a little
premature for the time of max heating to optimize downward
momentum transfer which is also problematic for wind advisory
criteria this time around. Gradients and winds are forecast to
drop off this afternoon. High temps are forecast to be some 10-15
degrees above normal today...as the weak CAA will be offset by
downslope warming from the northerly winds. Low-mid 80s are expected
in valley...with mostly 60s and 70s mtns.

The progressive upper air pattern will bring a cooler day on Thu
than what we expected a couple of days ago as the next short wave
trof is now forecast to near the coast by 00z Fri. Onshore flow
should increase as the trof approaches bringing synoptic cooling to
the CWA as well as a chance of showers over the Nrn mtns and
possibly the Nrn Sac vly by evening. The chance of showers will
spread SEwd over the Siernev into Fri as well. This positively-
tilted and splitting system won`t bring much precip...just a
reminder that we are still in the spring season.

Instability associated with the stronger piece of energy rotating
across Socal Thu nite and Fri (in the bottom of the trof) and
lingering over the 4 corners area on Sat may trigger some
thunderstorms during the afternoons/evenings over the Siernev mainly
S of our CWA...but close enough to warrant mentioning some low PoPs
S of Hwy 50 near the Sierra Crest. Otherwise...model differences in
the timing of the next short wave on Sat leads to low confidence
with precip chances for the weekend. Our forecaster consensus
leans to the GFS with the GEM/ECMWF similar and the faster of the
three. The dprog/dt of the ECMWF shows the last two runs becoming
more consistent...so this forecast is problematic and subject to
change.   JHM

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

All models showing a large upper level low dropping southward
from the Gulf of Alaska towards the West Coast in the extended
forecast. Details of this system are not consistent across the
models, but a pattern change is expected. Sunday should remain
fairly dry and warm, but wetter and cooler conditions are expected
to arrive by Monday. The low could start bringing light
precipitation to Coastal & Northern mountains late Sunday. Showers
will then spread southward across our CWA Monday into Tuesday.
Valley highs will go from the low to mid 80s on Sunday cooling to
mid-upper 70s on Monday and upper 60s-low 70s by Tuesday.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Currently VFR conditions with light winds for valley TAF sites.
Northerly winds will increase this morning into afternoon for the
valley. In KRDD-KRBL vicinity, expect winds to be enhanced between
15-22z with sustained winds 10-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. For
areas southward, winds will be enhanced between 17-22z with
sustained winds 5-15 kts and local gusts up to 25 kts. Strongest
winds will be along the western side of the northern/central
Sacramento Valley. Winds become light again after 0z as VFR
conditions continue.  JBB


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 161043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z
MARINE CLOUDS WILL HUG THE COAST ALL DAY AND MOVE ONSHORE EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MARINE LAYER STARTED THE DAY OUT AT 800
FEET DEEP AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE VALLEY TAFS VULNERABLE TO MARINE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...SCT V BKN SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
MARINE CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR GOOD WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 161034
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
334 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST AND COULD BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PASSING TROUGH DID LITTLE TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA BUT BROUGHT SOME MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE VALLEY AND PRODUCED A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
THROUGH THE PASSES OF KERN COUNTY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH ONSHORE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL
RETURN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
COULD BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SIERRA SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. RECENT GFS
RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...DROPPING A HEALTHY CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSING TROUGH BUT LATEST ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. WITH SOME
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WE HAVE TRENDED
OUR FORECAST DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THEN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME VERSION OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUR
FORECAST CURRENTLY DROPS TEMPERATURES FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY...WITH A
TRANSITIONAL DAY MONDAY WHERE OUR NORTHERN AREAS ARE COOLING BUT
STILL QUITE WARM IN THE SOUTH END.

CERTAINTY IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT WITH THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM...CLOUDY...BREEZY...COOLER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY HAS NOT
INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO YET INCLUDE VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...IF THE COLD POOL CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD MATERIALIZES...WE CERTAINLY COULD SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF KERN COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z WED AND 15Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941

KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB/DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 161024
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND TAHOE FOR THE
LATER TIME PERIOD AS WELL. ALSO, INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY BY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS VERSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST SOLUTION WITH GFS
AND THE EC LEANING TOWARDS STRONGER FORCING LEADING TO MODESTLY
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GLOBAL
MODELS INCREASING CHANCES ABOVE 25% AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FORCING STILL LOOKS A LITTLE SHALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 TO 10
PERCENT. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL
PRESENT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON SURFACE INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER COULD CAP TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO FEWER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR NOW.

OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED. WINDS WILL INCREASE,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE DISTANCE THIS FRONT HAS FROM THE PARENT LOW. OVERALL, WE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO
INCREASE POP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LOWER HIGHS CONSIDERABLY
TUESDAY.

SATURDAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY`S WEAK TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY,
FLAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AHEAD OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENERGY
DUE TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS STILL SHOWS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND OUT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
THIS IS NOT SHOWN IN ANY OTHER MODEL AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
FLAT RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FLATTEN OUT ANY CUMULUS THAT FORM
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, 00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THE GEFS
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE STOUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
FURTHER INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY COLD SO SNOW
LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO NEAR ALL VALLEY FLOORS ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PERIOD. IN ANY CASE, AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR SNOW PRETTY MUCH HAS TO FALL AT NIGHT OR BE
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE TROUGH`S COLD FRONT. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW RELAXING TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH.
SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KPSR 161017
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
317 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 161017
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
317 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL JET AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST ZONES TODAY...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BRUSHING BY THE FOUR
CORNERS. NEIGHBORING RAOBS SHOWED ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE
LOWER ATMO LAYERS WHICH SUPPORTED LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS
TUESDAY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 20C/21C RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ON TO OBSERVED HIGH VALUES
FROM TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHILE
TROUGHING ALSO EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADDITIONAL WAA OCCURS UNDER VERY BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WAS
NEVER PRESENTED AS OVERLY WET OR STRONG/WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PWAT PLOTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
16/00 AND 16/06Z NAM MOISTURE FIELDS ARE SOME OF THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND ALSO THE BEST INITIALIZED FROM LAST
EVENING...ATTEMPTING TO DRAW 1 INCH PWAT VALUES FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
AND INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. GFS/SREF/EC SOLNS ARE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL DRAW NEAR THREE QUARTER INCH VALUES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ANY INCREASE MOISTURE ON ALL THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIE AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH INVERTED V TRACES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS...WHICH ALREADY HAD
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FOOTHILLS/HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. SLIGHT CHANCES WERE ADDED TO THE FOOTHILL TERRAIN OF LA PAZ
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MARICOPA FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHT BOOST IN MOISTURE FIELDS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS...LIGHT SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ/MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND ANY OUTFLOWS FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL SEE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT ONLY BACK TOWARDS
MID APRIL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
POCKETS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE
MAIN BODY OF TROUGH. FRIDAY`S COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
80S/LOW 90S RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST COMPARED TO
THEIR PERFORMANCE JUST 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE AND
POTENT PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. IN GENERAL...LOWER
STORM HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER JET AS FAR SOUTH AS
ARIZONA COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ATTM). THE BULK OF
THE BEST WAVE ENERGY LOOKS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY BLENDED A
FEW PERCENT OF CLIMO POPS INTO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 161000
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND
MORE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A
DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO FAR WESTERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS BLEW THROUGH THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GENERALLY FAIR AND
SEASONAL WEATHE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL SPREAD A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND MAINTAIN THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AT SIMILAR LEVELS. SOME CURIOUS SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH DESERT TOO THAT DAY. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHER CLOUDS THICKEN UP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR RAIN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SO THAT LOW CLOUDS
FILL THE COASTAL BASIN UP TO THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A VERY MODEST
WARMING TREND AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS. A BIG TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PACIFIC ARRIVES AT THE WEST COAST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...BUT THIS MORNING THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS.
LOOK FOR QUITE COOL WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS...AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
160930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND THROUGH 16/1200Z...MOST LIKELY STAYING CLEAR
OF KONT AND AIRPORTS IN THE CENTRAL INLAND EMPIRE. BASES ARE
1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2000 FEET. VIS WILL STAY ABV 5SM
...EXCEPT LOCALLY BLW 3 MILES WHERE THE CLOUDS INTERSECT THE TERRAIN
ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
16/1500Z-1800Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASE AND HEIGHTS WILL MOVE
INLAND AGAIN AFT 17/0200Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT






000
FXUS66 KSGX 161000
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND
MORE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A
DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO FAR WESTERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS BLEW THROUGH THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GENERALLY FAIR AND
SEASONAL WEATHE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL SPREAD A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AND MAINTAIN THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AT SIMILAR LEVELS. SOME CURIOUS SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH DESERT TOO THAT DAY. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH AND THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHER CLOUDS THICKEN UP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR RAIN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SO THAT LOW CLOUDS
FILL THE COASTAL BASIN UP TO THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A VERY MODEST
WARMING TREND AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS. A BIG TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PACIFIC ARRIVES AT THE WEST COAST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...BUT THIS MORNING THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS.
LOOK FOR QUITE COOL WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS...AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
160930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND THROUGH 16/1200Z...MOST LIKELY STAYING CLEAR
OF KONT AND AIRPORTS IN THE CENTRAL INLAND EMPIRE. BASES ARE
1200-1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 2000 FEET. VIS WILL STAY ABV 5SM
...EXCEPT LOCALLY BLW 3 MILES WHERE THE CLOUDS INTERSECT THE TERRAIN
ON THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
16/1500Z-1800Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASE AND HEIGHTS WILL MOVE
INLAND AGAIN AFT 17/0200Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KLOX 160618
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT
THE BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN
THE WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST ACARS
DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1100 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN
THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AT LEAST 1500 FEET
LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INTO THE VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY). OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING
SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY.

THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING TO MOST COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER INLAND (ABOVE THE MARINE
INFLUENCE) COULD ACTUALLY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING AS LATEST
00Z NAM MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN THICKNESS VALUES AND
950 MB TEMPS FOR THESE AREAS. IN EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...

16/0545Z

MARINE LAYER IS 1200 FEET DEEP. MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT
DEVELOPED MUCH AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP HAPHAZARDLY OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL NON DESERT TAFS WHERE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARRIVAL
TIME. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO CIGS AT
TAFS SITES THAT HAVE CIGS IN THE FCST AND A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
IN TAFS THAT DO NOT HAVE CIGS FCST.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS
LASTING UNTIL 16Z. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS DISSIPATING BEFORE 12Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
11Z-16Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...ASR
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 160555
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 160433
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MINOR
COOLING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SURGED ACROSS THE SAN DIEGO COASTAL ZONE THIS
EVENING WITH BASES BETWEEN 1000-1200 FEET...WHICH IS A FEW HUNDRED
FEET DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT. A CATALINA EDDY IS SPINNING UP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER A FEW HUNDRED FEET
TONIGHT...SO THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THAN
LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS ON SOME OF
THE MESAS AND IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
INTERSECT THE TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM A PASSING UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY SLOW THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING PROCESS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP BEACH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH THE
LOW TO MID 70S A FEW MILES INLAND.

MILD AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF AND ADVANCING PACIFIC
TROUGH AND A STRENGTHENING COASTAL EDDY. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE VALLEYS. THERE MAY BE PATCHY
DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER DAYS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEM/GFS...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVING
INLAND TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD BRING COOLING BUT NO PRECIP. THE 18Z
GFS AND 12Z GEM ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEVELOP A DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO SO-CAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
160415Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TO ABOUT 20 MILES INLAND THROUGH 12Z. MOST BASES WILL BE 900-1300 FT
MSL WITH TOPS TO 1600 FEET. MOST VIS WILL BE 5+ MILES...EXCEPT
LOCALLY BELOW 3 MILES IN THE VALLEYS. KONT HAS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HAVING A CIG...BUT VIS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 2-4 MILES FOR
AWHILE 12Z-16Z WED.

MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR BY 18Z WED...WITH LOCAL BROKEN SKIES NEAR THE
BEACHES. STRATUS WILL AGAIN SPREAD INLAND EARLY WED EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL








000
FXUS66 KSTO 160407
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
907 PM PDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Breezy northerly winds tonight into Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers over the mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday and
possibly over the Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday evening.
Temperatures above normal through Sunday then may cool to around
normal early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern moving
over the region.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Northerly winds will set up overnight becoming breezy Wednesday
morning for the Sacramento valley. Conditions are expected to
remain well below wind advisory criteria but some local gusts may
be able to get up to around 30 mph during the day. Slight warming
over todays highs is expected for most locations.

Conditions still look dry over the interior through Thursday
morning. Breezy flow through the delta will to help cool interior
temperatures a little for Thursday. A shortwave is progged to
move in slightly faster than yesterday will bring a slight chance
of showers over the mountains and northern half of the Sacramento
valley Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as this system moves through.

For Friday the system will be moving into the Rockies with
lingering afternoon showers possible near the crest of the
Sierra Nevada. Cooler air filtering into the region should cool
interior valley temperatures into the 70s and mountain
temperatures into the mid 50s and 60s.

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Generally dry and zonal flow over California through the weekend.
A weak shortwave trough will move through the PacNW late Saturday
which may potentially bring isolated showers over the Sierra
crest south of Highway 50. However, the wave will bring little
impact to our area. Temperatures will remain well above normal for
this time of year for the Central Valley.

After several weeks of quiet weather along the West Coast, a
change may be in store next week. All extended models are digging
a cold trough into NorCal sometime early next week...but
discrepancies remain on strength and timing. We`ll be keeping on
eye on this potential pattern change, particularly if models show
consistency in future runs. For now, have kept a chance of showers
for much of interior NorCal, along with cooler temperatures.
Shen/DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Generally light winds of 10 kts or less expected for
Central Valley TAF sites tonight. 25 kt SW wind gusts can
expected over Sierra ridges through around 03z, then decreasing
overnight. Northerly Valley winds will begin to increase over the
northern Sacramento Valley after 12z, spreading southward acorss
the area into the northern San Joaquin Valley by around 18z. Winds
will be strongestr along the western side of the northern/central
Sacramento Valley, gusting locally 30 kts+ 15-22z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 160332
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORECAST AREA TRAPPED IN WEAK NWLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE MAIN MID LATITUDE JET AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER THE
SERN PACIFIC BASIN. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FLANKED BY MORE EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS BORDERING THE CWA TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS HOLDING NICELY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS EVENINGS UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014/
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH REGARD
TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 160332
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORECAST AREA TRAPPED IN WEAK NWLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE MAIN MID LATITUDE JET AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER THE
SERN PACIFIC BASIN. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FLANKED BY MORE EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS BORDERING THE CWA TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS HOLDING NICELY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS EVENINGS UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014/
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH REGARD
TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160317
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT THE
BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST ACARS
DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1100 FEET ACROSS THE
LA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AT
LEAST 1500 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY).
OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY.

THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING TO MOST COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER INLAND (ABOVE THE MARINE INFLUENCE) COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING AS LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL
SHOWING A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN THICKNESS VALUES AND 950 MB TEMPS
FOR THESE AREAS. IN EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2335Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOME OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS OF 2330Z.
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN SANTA MONICA
BAY THAT COULD BRING A CEILING EVEN EARLIER TO KLAX THAN FORECASTED
04Z ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND
1500 LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS KBUR
AND KVNY. CHANCE OF CIGS RETURNING UP THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...CHANCE OF BKN007 CONDITIONS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASED SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN
SANTA MONICA BAY. OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160317
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT THE
BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST ACARS
DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1100 FEET ACROSS THE
LA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AT
LEAST 1500 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY).
OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY.

THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING TO MOST COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER INLAND (ABOVE THE MARINE INFLUENCE) COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING AS LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL
SHOWING A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN THICKNESS VALUES AND 950 MB TEMPS
FOR THESE AREAS. IN EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2335Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOME OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS OF 2330Z.
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN SANTA MONICA
BAY THAT COULD BRING A CEILING EVEN EARLIER TO KLAX THAN FORECASTED
04Z ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND
1500 LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS KBUR
AND KVNY. CHANCE OF CIGS RETURNING UP THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...CHANCE OF BKN007 CONDITIONS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASED SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN
SANTA MONICA BAY. OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 160317
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
817 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:10 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STEADILY INCREASED TO 7 MB
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED BY ABOUT 1 MB
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME...PRESENTLY 2.7 MB.
CLOUDS PERSISTED MANY PLACES THIS MORNING BUT HAVE SINCE CLEARED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE MONTEREY BAY WATERS.

DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S COAST TO THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION: SIMS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 160317
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT THE
BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. LATEST ACARS
DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1100 FEET ACROSS THE
LA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AT
LEAST 1500 FEET LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS (ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY).
OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN
SBA COUNTY.

THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING TO MOST COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER INLAND (ABOVE THE MARINE INFLUENCE) COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING AS LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL
SHOWING A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN THICKNESS VALUES AND 950 MB TEMPS
FOR THESE AREAS. IN EVENING UPDATE...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2335Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOME OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS OF 2330Z.
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN SANTA MONICA
BAY THAT COULD BRING A CEILING EVEN EARLIER TO KLAX THAN FORECASTED
04Z ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND
1500 LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS KBUR
AND KVNY. CHANCE OF CIGS RETURNING UP THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...CHANCE OF BKN007 CONDITIONS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASED SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN
SANTA MONICA BAY. OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KEKA 160126 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
626 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE MARINE FORECAST. THE SHORT
PERIOD WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AT BUOY 14 WERE ABOUT 3 FEET
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT
SLOWED DOWN TREND. MKK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 310 PM PDT...

SHORT-TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLER INLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM MONDAY`S TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND
HAYFORK AND WEAVERVILLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER DOES
NOT LOOK AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT WILL STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. FURTHER NORTH
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AS INVERSION WEAKENED WITH COOL
ADVECTION. WILL STILL SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE NORTH OF
THE CAPE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY. NEXT TROUGH TO
BE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY THUR NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. THIS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE FASTER GFS. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTAL VALUES LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH IN HEAVIEST AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDO COUNTY AS SOUTHERN END OF
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CUT OFF AND COULD SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SE FLOW. LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTMS
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY. DEAN

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GLOBAL LONG WAVE
GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT MODEL INDICATES FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH UNMENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON
MONDAY AS MODELS PROG A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THIS TROUGH BUT CONTAIN DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF RAIN IN THE LONG RANGE, HOWEVER, THAT IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS
TIME. THUS, ALL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH MODELS SHIFTING
THE MAIN BOUT OF RAIN TO LATER MONDAY. KML

AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
IS GENERATING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO EASE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS.

MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND MIXED SEAS AROUND
8-12 FT. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-30 KT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS IS
ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST AND CONFIRMS THE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
THE GALE WARNING, ARE ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HAVING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS THE WINDS IN ZONE 475 MIGHT DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE, PUTTING THE GALE WARNING IN QUESTION. BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NEAR HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA, SO LEAVING THE
GALE WARNING OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MIGHT BE EASIER THAN CHANGING
ONE WARNING FOR ANOTHER. THE NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. WINDS WILL EASE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM SHOULD
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH OUR WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ455-470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA










000
FXUS66 KLOX 152351
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT THE
BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO. A VERY
WEAK TROF SLIDING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY IS GENERATING SOME MARINE
LYR CLEARING BEHIND IT ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS BUT IT LIKELY
WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR THAT CLEARING TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH, SO
INSTEAD WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TONIGHT IS A LIFTING OF THE MARINE LYR
AND AN EXPANSION OF COVERAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. HIGHS TOMORROW
PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE COAST BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN
THE VALLEYS. MAYBE A LITTLE NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT IN SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE GRAPEVINE AREA BUT NAM HAS BACKED OFF A NOTCH FROM EARLIER
RUNS SO LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2335Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SOME OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS OF 2330Z.
SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN SANTA MONICA
BAY THAT COULD BRING A CEILING EVEN EARLIER TO KLAX THAN FORECASTED
04Z ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY
CIRCULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO AROUND
1500 LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF COASTAL LA/VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS KBUR
AND KVNY. CHANCE OF CIGS RETURNING UP THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT KSBA.

KLAX...CHANCE OF BKN007 CONDITIONS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASED SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN
SANTA MONICA BAY. OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...KJ/MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 152341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 152341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 152341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 152341
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:41 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
SOME PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS FROM ABOUT THE MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE
NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO OVER 6
MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 152210
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
310 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT-TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES WERE
COOLER INLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM MONDAY`S TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND
HAYFORK AND WEAVERVILLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA WED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER DOES
NOT LOOK AS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT WILL STILL
HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. FURTHER NORTH
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP AS INVERSION WEAKENED WITH COOL
ADVECTION. WILL STILL SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE NORTH OF
THE CAPE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER VALLEY. NEXT TROUGH TO
BE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY THUR NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. THIS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE FASTER GFS. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTAL VALUES LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH IN HEAVIEST AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDO COUNTY AS SOUTHERN END OF
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO CUT OFF AND COULD SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SE FLOW. LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR TSTMS
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY. DEAN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GLOBAL LONG WAVE
GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT MODEL INDICATES FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH UNMENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON
MONDAY AS MODELS PROG A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THIS TROUGH BUT CONTAIN DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF RAIN IN THE LONG RANGE, HOWEVER, THAT IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS
TIME. THUS, ALL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH MODELS SHIFTING
THE MAIN BOUT OF RAIN TO LATER MONDAY. KML

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
IS GENERATING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO EASE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND MIXED SEAS AROUND
8-12 FT. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-30 KT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS IS
ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST AND CONFIRMS THE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY
THE GALE WARNING, ARE ON TRACK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HAVING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS THE WINDS IN ZONE 475 MIGHT DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE, PUTTING THE GALE WARNING IN QUESTION. BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND NEAR HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA, SO LEAVING THE
GALE WARNING OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MIGHT BE EASIER THAN CHANGING
ONE WARNING FOR ANOTHER. THE NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. WINDS WILL EASE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A DISTANT STORM SHOULD
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH OUR WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...
FROST ADVISORY FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FOR PZZ475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 152208
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
308 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
CREST ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECASTING SHIFT WAS TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND THREAT FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

AS FAR AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW A WASHED OUT COOL FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING ORIENTATED EAST TO WEST AND MOVING SOUTH
WOULD AFFECT THE MAXIMUM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE INHIBITED A BIT
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY/S PASSING. HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WERE VERY THIN AND TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER. IT WAS EXPECTED ANY COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE WOULD BE OFFSET BY THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND WOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS TO QUICKLY CATCH UP. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
ARE RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS JUST
BELOW THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE THE THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND A THERMAL LOW LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER. THIS
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MARINE AIR TO
SPILL INTO THE WESTERN SIDES OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
ONSET OF THIS PROCESS IN THESE AREAS. WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SJV AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY SURPASS THIS
VALUE AND WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS SOME BLOWING DUST MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOMORROW
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADILY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN AGAIN WARM TO PRE SYSTEM RANGES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKES A DIVE AS GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT IN TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM GOES A BIT HAYWIRE. THIS FORECASTER IS
OPTING TO RESERVE SOUNDING THE ALARM UNTIL FURTHER GUIDANCE RUNS
CAN BE EXAMINED. THE FEELING NOW IS THAT A SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
REGION BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE PUTS IT. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR
THE SIERRA CREST AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE LIKELY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF KERN COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z WED AND 15Z WED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896

KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ANDERSEN
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD









000
FXUS66 KSTO 152200
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
300 PM PDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Breezy northerly winds tonight into Wednesday. A slight chance of
showers over the mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday and
possibly over the Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday night.
Temperatures above normal through Sunday then may cool to around
normal early next week.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Upper level ridge nudging into Northern California from the
Eastern Pacific tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures this
afternoon in the 70s to low 80s in the valley with the coolest
conditions around the Delta with onshore flow and 60s to low 70s
in the mountains which is about 10 degrees above normal for mid April.
Low clouds dissipated around Vallejo at 11 am this morning and are
not expected to return tomorrow morning due to dry Northerly
winds. Northerly surface gradient increases to around 9 MB
Wednesday morning as surface high pressure builds into the Pacific
Northwest This will bring breezy northerly winds tonight into
Wednesday...especially along the North end of the Sacramento
Valley and the west side of the Central and Southern Sacramento
Valley. 925 MB winds around 25 kts Wednesday morning around 8 am
which may bring some stronger gusts. Little change in high
temperatures tomorrow compared to today as the Cold air advection
will be offset by downslope warming from the northerly winds. The
winds should decrease Wednesday afternoon with a weakening
gradient.

The ridge shifts to the east Thursday as an upper level trough
approaches the west coast. The trough moves through the area
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring cooler temperatures
Thursday and Friday along with some clouds. There is some moisture
with this system with precipitable water values around an inch
Thursday afternoon into Friday. Showers are possible over the
mountains and possibly the Northern Sacramento Valley with this system
Thursday afternoon into early Friday and maybe even an isolated
thunderstorm along the Sierra Friday afternoon. Snow levels are
expected to be around 9000 ft. There is a little uncertainty in
the how quickly the trough will move through on Friday but it
will probably move out of the area by Friday evening.


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Generally dry and zonal flow over California through the weekend.
A weak shortwave trough will move through the PacNW late Saturday
which may potentially bring isolated showers over the Sierra
crest south of Highway 50. However, the wave will bring little
impact to our area. Temperatures will remain well above normal for
this time of year for the Central Valley.

After several weeks of quiet weather along the West Coast, a
change may be in store next week. All extended models are digging
a cold trough into NorCal sometime early next week...but
discrepancies remain on strength and timing. We`ll be keeping on
eye on this potential pattern change, particularly if models show
consistency in future runs. For now, have kept a chance of showers
for much of interior NorCal, along with cooler temperatures.
Shen/DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Generally light winds of 10 kts or less expected for
Central Valley TAF sites tonight. 25 kt SW wind gusts can
expected over Sierra ridges through around 03z, then decreasing
overnight. Northerly Valley winds will begin to increase over the
northern Sacramento Valley after 12z, spreading southward across
the area into the northern San Joaquin Valley by around 18z. Winds
will be strongest along the western side of the northern/central
Sacramento Valley, gusting locally 30 kts+ 15-22z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KREV 152137
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY WAS CONVECTIVE CHANCES
STARTING THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS WEEK. BUMPED UP
POPS A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING. HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL COOLER
TEMPS...BUT GIVEN IT IS MID APRIL ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE VERY
NEGLIGIBLE. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

NAM AND GFS ARE STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPS
CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN THURSDAY THEN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
CROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING THUNDER ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRAY STRIKES. DID INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY MAY KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO
SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
EVENING CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY LATE FRIDAY TO WARRANT MENTIONING
THUNDER. KEPT ALL POPS AS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO START INCREASING THESE WITH
TIME. 20

.LONG TERM...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SWITCH SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS.

FOR THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS BEHIND FRIDAY`S DISTURBANCE.
RIDGING WILL BE RELATIVELY FLAT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80, BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT
LOCATION. ECMWF PLACES SHOWERS EAST OF FALLON, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE LED TO LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DIGS THE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH SHALLOWER
WITH THE TROUGH. GFS IS STILL WAY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL SO
TRYING TO MEET SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND A
BIT OF A COOL DOWN. WEISHAHN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS (EXCEPT SOUTH NEAR KTVL DUE TO CHANNELED WINDS)
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT, GENERALLY
BETWEEN THROUGH 03Z/8PM. SNYDER/WEISHAHN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KPSR 152120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
VIRGA FORCED BY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SLIDING STEADILY EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. IN ITS
WAKE...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH
REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THAT IS BRINGING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LAYERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND ON WED. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS INN DIRECTION AND SPEED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 152120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
VIRGA FORCED BY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SLIDING STEADILY EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. IN ITS
WAKE...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH
REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THAT IS BRINGING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LAYERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND ON WED. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS INN DIRECTION AND SPEED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 152101
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
201 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY ERODING AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTH TO
SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAMPING UP AND SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS OUT OF SFO OVERNIGHT BUT STRATUS MAY STILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE BAY NEAR KOAK. STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MAY IN FACT BE AN EARLY STRATUS RETURN FOR
MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT MVFR WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY ;ATE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 18 KT
POSSIBLE AT KSNS. WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL WITH A
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 152101
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
201 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:58 PM PDT TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH A MODEST
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND RESULT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

THE FORECAST MODELS THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD,
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND EVEN RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THE FORECASTS HANDEL THE EXTENDED IN THE
COMING DAYS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY ERODING AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTH TO
SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAMPING UP AND SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS OUT OF SFO OVERNIGHT BUT STRATUS MAY STILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE BAY NEAR KOAK. STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MAY IN FACT BE AN EARLY STRATUS RETURN FOR
MONTEREY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT MVFR WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY ;ATE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 18 KT
POSSIBLE AT KSNS. WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL WITH A
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 152056
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MARINE INVERSION WITH THE
MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1200 FEET DEEP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS STILL LINGERING NEAR THE COAST BUT BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
CURRENT SOUNDINGS AND THE LOCAL WRF SHOW A MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
OF ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY GREATER DEPTH. THIS WOULD PUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DENSE FOG FROM THE MESAS INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND THAN AREAS INITIALLY EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT. A COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY MOVES INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
BULK OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP WPC FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST VERSUS THE FASTER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. WARMER INLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW FOR SLOW COOLING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
152030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 800-1200 FT MSL...TOPS
1600 FEET MSL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY INLAND. FROM
03Z-06Z THIS EVENING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND...
REACHING KRNM AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KONT.

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
MODERATE...MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD BASE HEIGHT FORECASTS...THEN
LOW-MODERATE 16Z-19Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN CLEARING TIMES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL










000
FXUS66 KSGX 152056
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MARINE INVERSION WITH THE
MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1200 FEET DEEP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS STILL LINGERING NEAR THE COAST BUT BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
CURRENT SOUNDINGS AND THE LOCAL WRF SHOW A MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
OF ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY GREATER DEPTH. THIS WOULD PUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DENSE FOG FROM THE MESAS INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND THAN AREAS INITIALLY EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT. A COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY MOVES INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
BULK OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP WPC FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST VERSUS THE FASTER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. WARMER INLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW FOR SLOW COOLING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
152030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 800-1200 FT MSL...TOPS
1600 FEET MSL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY INLAND. FROM
03Z-06Z THIS EVENING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND...
REACHING KRNM AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KONT.

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
MODERATE...MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD BASE HEIGHT FORECASTS...THEN
LOW-MODERATE 16Z-19Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN CLEARING TIMES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL









000
FXUS66 KLOX 151949
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1245 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ONSHORE TRENDS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
COOLING TODAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT MARINE LYR PRESENCE AT THE
BEACHES BUT HIGHS MANAGED TO REACH CLOSE TO MONDAY`S LEVELS IN THE
WARMER VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN SAN FERNANDO. A VERY
WEAK TROF SLIDING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY IS GENERATING SOME MARINE
LYR CLEARING BEHIND IT ACROSS NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS BUT IT LIKELY
WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR THAT CLEARING TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH, SO
INSTEAD WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TONIGHT IS A LIFTING OF THE MARINE LYR
AND AN EXPANSION OF COVERAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. HIGHS TOMORROW
PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE COAST BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN
THE VALLEYS. MAYBE A LITTLE NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT IN SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE GRAPEVINE AREA BUT NAM HAS BACKED OFF A NOTCH FROM EARLIER
RUNS SO LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE WED TO THU EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INLAND.
THEN FRIDAY A DEEPER TROF COMES IN, LIFTING THE MARINE LYR FURTHER
AND POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME COAST/VALLEY DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SLOWER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AFTER THE FRI TROF A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
WARMING, THOUGH THE 12Z RUN DID DIAL IT BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST
FEW RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. THOUGH HERE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS EVER
SO SLIGHTLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR
NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA. SO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z
MARINE CLOUDS WILL HUG THE COAST ALL DAY AND MOVE ONSHORE EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MARINE LAYER STARTED THE DAY OUT AT 800
FEET DEEP AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE VALLEY TAFS VULNERABLE TO MARINE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...SCT V BKN SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
MARINE CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR GOOD WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ/MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 151927
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1225 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A SOLID BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE LYR
HAS REFORMED UNDER A STRENGTHENED LOW LVL INVERSION. NKX SOUNDING
SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 950 MB (ROUGHLY 1800`) UP ABOUT 15F DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY, SO IT`S NOT SURPRISING TO SEE VALLEY AND MTN TEMPS
GETTING A WARMER START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER, COUNTERACTING THAT TREND
IS A STRONG +4MB ONSHORE TREND FROM YESTERDAY, SO I EXPECT BY THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM MONDAY`S LEVELS, THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THEY MAY SPIKE
EARLIER IN THE DAY CLOSE TO THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE ONSHORE TRENDS BRING THAT COOLER MARINE AIR
INLAND. SO A TRICKY TEMPERATURE DAY BUT IMPACT-WISE PRETTY MINIMAL.
NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE MODELS TODAY THAT WILL WARRANT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AND
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER. A LITTLE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THE MTNS AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO SEE SOME GUST NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT NOT OVER.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE COASTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VLYS...OTHERWISE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS UP INTO THE VLYS. IT WILL ALSO
BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL AGAIN AND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING STRATUS TO ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT IT WILL
ALSO BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EVERYWHERE. SO LETS JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALL MDLS SPIT
OUT RANDOM SQUIRTS OF RAIN AT RANDOM TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS JUST MDL NOISE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT
ZERO JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGING. SO LOOK FOR SOME WARMING. THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE EC AND GFS GO THERE MERRY WAYS. THE EC
BUILDS THE RIDGE EACH DAY AND FORECASTS WARMER AND WARMER DAYS. THE
GFS KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND BRINGS TROFING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. SO CHOOSE ONE GFS WITH COOLER CONDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER OR THE EC WITH A LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A HEALTHY WARMING TREND. TRENDED FCST TO GFS AS HAS HAD A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAN DIEGO
OFFICE HAS CHOSEN THE EC WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE TEMP DIFFERENCES
FOR LA COUNTY VS THE OC/INLAND EMPIRE ON SUN AND ESP MON.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1800Z
MARINE CLOUDS WILL HUG THE COAST ALL DAY AND MOVE ONSHORE EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MARINE LAYER STARTED THE DAY OUT AT 800
FEET DEEP AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE THE VALLEY TAFS VULNERABLE TO MARINE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...SCT V BKN SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
MARINE CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR GOOD WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KMTR 151730
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1030 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 1200 FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICT WIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY ERODING AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTH TO
SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAMPING UP AND SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS OUT OF SFO OVERNIGHT BUT STRATUS MAY STILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE BAY NEAR KOAK. STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MAY IN FACT BE AN EARLY STRATUS RETURN FOR
MONTEREY.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT MVFR WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY ;ATE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 18 KT
POSSIBLE AT KSNS. WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL WITH A
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 151730
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1030 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 1200 FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICT WIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A MIX OF SUN AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY ERODING AND THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTH TO
SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAMPING UP AND SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS OUT OF SFO OVERNIGHT BUT STRATUS MAY STILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE BAY NEAR KOAK. STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MAY IN FACT BE AN EARLY STRATUS RETURN FOR
MONTEREY.


VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT MVFR WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY ;ATE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 18 KT
POSSIBLE AT KSNS. WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL WITH A
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: LARRY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 151641
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...A SOLID BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE LYR
HAS REFORMED UNDER A STRENGTHENED LOW LVL INVERSION. NKX SOUNDING
SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 950 MB (ROUGHLY 1800`) UP ABOUT 15F DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY, SO IT`S NOT SURPRISING TO SEE VALLEY AND MTN TEMPS
GETTING A WARMER START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER, COUNTERACTING THAT TREND
IS A STRONG +4MB ONSHORE TREND FROM YESTERDAY, SO I EXPECT BY THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR COAST AND VALLEYS WILL BE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES FROM MONDAY`S LEVELS, THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THEY MAY SPIKE
EARLIER IN THE DAY CLOSE TO THE HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE ONSHORE TRENDS BRING THAT COOLER MARINE AIR
INLAND. SO A TRICKY TEMPERATURE DAY BUT IMPACT-WISE PRETTY MINIMAL.
NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE MODELS TODAY THAT WILL WARRANT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AND
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER. A LITTLE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THE MTNS AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO SEE SOME GUST NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT NOT OVER.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE COASTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VLYS...OTHERWISE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS UP INTO THE VLYS. IT WILL ALSO
BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL AGAIN AND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING STRATUS TO ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT IT WILL
ALSO BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EVERYWHERE. SO LETS JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALL MDLS SPIT
OUT RANDOM SQUIRTS OF RAIN AT RANDOM TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS JUST MDL NOISE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT
ZERO JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGING. SO LOOK FOR SOME WARMING. THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE EC AND GFS GO THERE MERRY WAYS. THE EC
BUILDS THE RIDGE EACH DAY AND FORECASTS WARMER AND WARMER DAYS. THE
GFS KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND BRINGS TROFING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. SO CHOOSE ONE GFS WITH COOLER CONDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER OR THE EC WITH A LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A HEALTHY WARMING TREND. TRENDED FCST TO GFS AS HAS HAD A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAN DIEGO
OFFICE HAS CHOSEN THE EC WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE TEMP DIFFERENCES
FOR LA COUNTY VS THE OC/INLAND EMPIRE ON SUN AND ESP MON.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1200Z
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS...AS LIFR MARINE LAYER
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. THE TIME OF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR +/- 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS/VSBY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNING. LOWER CERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS ARRIVAL. EXPECT
VFR CONDS INLAND...EXCEPT FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KPRB THIS MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
RISE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT THE TIMING MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HRS. TIMING
AND HEIGHT OF LOW CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z CAVU TAF. 10% CHANCE THAT LOW
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT THE SITE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KSTO 151636
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
936 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Above normal high temperatures continuing into Monday. Breezy
northerly winds tonight into Wednesday.  A slight chance of
showers over the mountains Thursday evening into Friday, with the
best chance over Shasta County.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Upper level ridge of high pressure building over the Eastern
Pacific and into Northern California into Wednesday. Daytime
temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for the
Valley and mid 50s to low 70s for the mountains which is about 10
degrees above normal for mid April. Although, low clouds made it
into the Delta area to around Cordelia this morning but should
dissipate by 11 am and will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s
today. Northerly surface gradient increased to around 9 mb
Wednesday morning as surface high pressure builds into the Pacific
Northwest and the Great Basin. This will bringing breezy northerly
winds tonight into Wednesday...especially along the North end of
the Sacramento Valley and the west side of the Central and
Southern Sacramento Valley. 925 mb winds around 25 kts Wednesday
morning around 8 am which may bring some stronger gusts.
Little change in high temps is expected as the Cold air advection
will be offset by downslope warming from the northerly winds on
Wednesday.

The ridge shifts to the east Thursday with and approaching upper
level trough. The trough moves through the area Thursday night
into Friday. This will bring cooler temperatures Thursday and
Friday along with some clouds. There is some moisture with this
system with precipitable water values around an inch Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Showers are possible over the mountains
with this system and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm along the
Sierra. Snow levels are expected to be around 9000 ft.


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Mostly dry and benign weather is on tap for this weekend. A few
weak shortwaves could trigger a shower or two over the Sierra Crest,
but otherwise dry weather will continue. Highs looks to continue
the current above-normal stretch, with readings about 10 degrees
above normal for the Central Valley.

After several weeks of quiet weather along the West Coast, a
change may be in store next week. All extended models are now
showing a deep and cold closed low swinging into NorCal sometime
early next week. We`ll be keeping on eye on this potential pattern
change, particularly if models show consistency in future runs.
For now, have introduced a chance of showers for much of interior
NorCal, along with cooler temperatures. -DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Generally light winds of 10 kts or less expected for
Central Valley TAF sites. 25 kt SW winds can expected over Sierra
ridges this afternoon. Northerly winds increasing after 12z Wed for
mainly the western side of the Sacramento Valley, gusting up to 30
kts after 15z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 151635
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED
MONDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING...WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE 5C WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. MEANWHILE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD
MAINLY NORTH OF I-10...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VIRGA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
INHIBITION TO AFTERNOON HEATING...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF PHOENIX.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM. MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT...AS LATE AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND SHOWED INCREASING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/LEINS






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151629
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 12OO FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151629
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 12OO FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151629
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 12OO FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 151629
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
929 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST.
AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BURN-OFF/IMPROVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING JUST ABOUT ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS
NOW APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 12OO FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 151621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY DID NOT EXTEND TO THE COAST AND THE
QUICK REVERSAL OF THE FLOW TO WEAKLY ONSHORE ALLOWED STRATUS IN THE
FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE FAR
WESTERN VALLEYS WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES NEAR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
AND THE MESAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH A COASTAL EDDY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...BUT JUST BARELY INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD
BE THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. A
COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE DIFFERENCE OF NOTE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY IS THAT THE
MODELS NOW EJECT IT INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH RATHER
THAN A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE ALREADY MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SPREADING
ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH NCEP WPC PREFERRING
A 60/40 BLEND OF THE SLOWER SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BEYOND THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE LESSER AMPLITUDE OF THE ECMWF TROUGH WOULD
PROBABLY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK NORTH
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH
COASTAL STRATUS STILL EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH GREATER
INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS
COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. USING THE
MODEL BLEND MENTIONED ABOVE...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH SLOW COOLING BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 300-600 FT MSL...TOPS
1200 FEET MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z.
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BELOW 3SM IN FOG WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN
THROUGH 18Z.

FROM 06Z-08Z THIS EVENING LOW CLOUDS BASED 700-1000 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WILL MOVE INLAND ...REACHING KRNM AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING WEST OF KONT. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TODAY IS MODERATE...
MAINLY DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE...THEN HIGH
18Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING.

LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS AFTER 04Z MAINLY DUE TO ARRIVAL
TIMES OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AS THEY COULD
BECOME BKN-OVC EARLIER THAN HE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS INDICATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL










000
FXUS66 KSGX 151621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY DID NOT EXTEND TO THE COAST AND THE
QUICK REVERSAL OF THE FLOW TO WEAKLY ONSHORE ALLOWED STRATUS IN THE
FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE FAR
WESTERN VALLEYS WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES NEAR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
AND THE MESAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH A COASTAL EDDY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...BUT JUST BARELY INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD
BE THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. A
COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE DIFFERENCE OF NOTE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY IS THAT THE
MODELS NOW EJECT IT INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH RATHER
THAN A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE ALREADY MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SPREADING
ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH NCEP WPC PREFERRING
A 60/40 BLEND OF THE SLOWER SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BEYOND THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE LESSER AMPLITUDE OF THE ECMWF TROUGH WOULD
PROBABLY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK NORTH
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH
COASTAL STRATUS STILL EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH GREATER
INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS
COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. USING THE
MODEL BLEND MENTIONED ABOVE...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH SLOW COOLING BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 300-600 FT MSL...TOPS
1200 FEET MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z.
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BELOW 3SM IN FOG WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN
THROUGH 18Z.

FROM 06Z-08Z THIS EVENING LOW CLOUDS BASED 700-1000 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WILL MOVE INLAND ...REACHING KRNM AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING WEST OF KONT. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TODAY IS MODERATE...
MAINLY DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE...THEN HIGH
18Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING.

LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS AFTER 04Z MAINLY DUE TO ARRIVAL
TIMES OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AS THEY COULD
BECOME BKN-OVC EARLIER THAN HE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS INDICATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL










000
FXUS66 KSGX 151621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY DID NOT EXTEND TO THE COAST AND THE
QUICK REVERSAL OF THE FLOW TO WEAKLY ONSHORE ALLOWED STRATUS IN THE
FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE FAR
WESTERN VALLEYS WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES NEAR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
AND THE MESAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH A COASTAL EDDY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...BUT JUST BARELY INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD
BE THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. A
COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE DIFFERENCE OF NOTE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY IS THAT THE
MODELS NOW EJECT IT INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH RATHER
THAN A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE ALREADY MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SPREADING
ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH NCEP WPC PREFERRING
A 60/40 BLEND OF THE SLOWER SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BEYOND THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE LESSER AMPLITUDE OF THE ECMWF TROUGH WOULD
PROBABLY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK NORTH
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH
COASTAL STRATUS STILL EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH GREATER
INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS
COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. USING THE
MODEL BLEND MENTIONED ABOVE...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH SLOW COOLING BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 300-600 FT MSL...TOPS
1200 FEET MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z.
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BELOW 3SM IN FOG WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN
THROUGH 18Z.

FROM 06Z-08Z THIS EVENING LOW CLOUDS BASED 700-1000 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WILL MOVE INLAND ...REACHING KRNM AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING WEST OF KONT. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TODAY IS MODERATE...
MAINLY DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE...THEN HIGH
18Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING.

LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS AFTER 04Z MAINLY DUE TO ARRIVAL
TIMES OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AS THEY COULD
BECOME BKN-OVC EARLIER THAN HE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS INDICATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL










000
FXUS66 KSGX 151621
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY DID NOT EXTEND TO THE COAST AND THE
QUICK REVERSAL OF THE FLOW TO WEAKLY ONSHORE ALLOWED STRATUS IN THE
FORM OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE FAR
WESTERN VALLEYS WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES NEAR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
AND THE MESAS INTO THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH A COASTAL EDDY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH FOR
STRATUS TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...BUT JUST BARELY INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD
BE THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. A
COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO
NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL
SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL
SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ONE DIFFERENCE OF NOTE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY IS THAT THE
MODELS NOW EJECT IT INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH RATHER
THAN A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE ALREADY MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS SPREADING
ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH NCEP WPC PREFERRING
A 60/40 BLEND OF THE SLOWER SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BEYOND THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE LESSER AMPLITUDE OF THE ECMWF TROUGH WOULD
PROBABLY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK NORTH
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH
COASTAL STRATUS STILL EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH GREATER
INLAND WARMING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS
COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. USING THE
MODEL BLEND MENTIONED ABOVE...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH SLOW COOLING BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
151530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 300-600 FT MSL...TOPS
1200 FEET MSL WILL CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z.
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BELOW 3SM IN FOG WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN
THROUGH 18Z.

FROM 06Z-08Z THIS EVENING LOW CLOUDS BASED 700-1000 FEET MSL WITH
TOPS AROUND 1600 FEET MSL WILL MOVE INLAND ...REACHING KRNM AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT REMAINING WEST OF KONT. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TODAY IS MODERATE...
MAINLY DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND COVERAGE...THEN HIGH
18Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING.

LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS AFTER 04Z MAINLY DUE TO ARRIVAL
TIMES OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS AS THEY COULD
BECOME BKN-OVC EARLIER THAN HE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS INDICATE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL










000
FXUS66 KLOX 151415
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
710 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NEUTRAL SFC GRADIENTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
SOCAL. MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORMED UNDER THE WEAKEST OF TROFS THAT
SCOOTED OVERHEAD LAST NIGHT (THE TROF ALSO BROUGHT SOME SOME WISPY
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO MAKE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE A LITTLE MORE SPOOKY) THE
MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UNDER
THE LOW STRATUS. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT MUCH
MORE SO ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER THE INTERIOR WILL
COOL SOME AS HGTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DM BEHIND THE TROF.

A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AND
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER. A LITTLE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THE MTNS AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO SEE SOME GUST NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT NOT OVER.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE COASTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VLYS...OTHERWISE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS UP INTO THE VLYS. IT WILL ALSO
BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL AGAIN AND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING STRATUS TO ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT IT WILL
ALSO BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EVERYWHERE. SO LETS JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALL MDLS SPIT
OUT RANDOM SQUIRTS OF RAIN AT RANDOM TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS JUST MDL NOISE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT
ZERO JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGING. SO LOOK FOR SOME WARMING. THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE EC AND GFS GO THERE MERRY WAYS. THE EC
BUILDS THE RIDGE EACH DAY AND FORECASTS WARMER AND WARMER DAYS. THE
GFS KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND BRINGS TROFING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. SO CHOOSE ONE GFS WITH COOLER CONDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER OR THE EC WITH A LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A HEALTHY WARMING TREND. TRENDED FCST TO GFS AS HAS HAD A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAN DIEGO
OFFICE HAS CHOSEN THE EC WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE TEMP DIFFERENCES
FOR LA COUNTY VS THE OC/INLAND EMPIRE ON SUN AND ESP MON.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1200Z
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS...AS LIFR MARINE LAYER
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. THE TIME OF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR +/- 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS/VSBY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNING. LOWER CERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS ARRIVAL. EXPECT
VFR CONDS INLAND...EXCEPT FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KPRB THIS MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
RISE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT THE TIMING MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HRS. TIMING
AND HEIGHT OF LOW CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z CAVU TAF. 10% CHANCE THAT LOW
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT THE SITE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 151144
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NEUTRAL SFC GRADIENTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
SOCAL. MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORMED UNDER THE WEAKEST OF TROFS THAT
SCOOTED OVERHEAD LAST NIGHT (THE TROF ALSO BROUGHT SOME SOME WISPY
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO MAKE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE A LITTLE MORE SPOOKY) THE
MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UNDER
THE LOW STRATUS. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT MUCH
MORE SO ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER THE INTERIOR WILL
COOL SOME AS HGTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DM BEHIND THE TROF.

A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AND
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER. A LITTLE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THE MTNS AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO SEE SOME GUST NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT NOT OVER.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE COASTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VLYS...OTHERWISE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS UP INTO THE VLYS. IT WILL ALSO
BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL AGAIN AND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING STRATUS TO ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT IT WILL
ALSO BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EVERYWHERE. SO LETS JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALL MDLS SPIT
OUT RANDOM SQUIRTS OF RAIN AT RANDOM TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS JUST MDL NOISE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT
ZERO JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGING. SO LOOK FOR SOME WARMING. THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE EC AND GFS GO THERE MERRY WAYS. THE EC
BUILDS THE RIDGE EACH DAY AND FORECASTS WARMER AND WARMER DAYS. THE
GFS KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND BRINGS TROFING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. SO CHOOSE ONE GFS WITH COOLER CONDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER OR THE EC WITH A LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A HEALTHY WARMING TREND. TRENDED FCST TO GFS AS HAS HAD A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAN DIEGO
OFFICE HAS CHOSEN THE EC WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE TEMP DIFFERENCES
FOR LA COUNTY VS THE OC/INLAND EMPIRE ON SUN AND ESP MON.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1200Z
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS...AS LIFR MARINE LAYER
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. THE TIME OF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR +/- 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS/VSBY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNING. LOWER CERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS ARRIVAL. EXPECT
VFR CONDS INLAND...EXCEPT FOR VLIFR CONDS AT KPRB THIS MORNING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
RISE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT THE TIMING MAY DIFFER BY +/- 2 HRS. TIMING
AND HEIGHT OF LOW CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z CAVU TAF. 10% CHANCE THAT LOW
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT THE SITE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSGX 151144 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
COAST...BUT STILL WARM INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY
BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME
COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND
DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE
AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER
MODELS BRING IN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST
COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 151144 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
COAST...BUT STILL WARM INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY
BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME
COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND
DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE
AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER
MODELS BRING IN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST
COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 151144 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
COAST...BUT STILL WARM INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY
BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME
COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND
DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE
AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER
MODELS BRING IN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST
COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KSGX 151144 AAA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
440 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
COAST...BUT STILL WARM INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY
BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME
COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND
DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE
AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER
MODELS BRING IN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST
COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT









000
FXUS66 KMTR 151137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
437 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TO A BIT WARMER THAN
SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND LOCALLY INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
HOWEVER...AS THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE TAIL END OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
THAT`S BEEN PASSING THROUGH OUR DISTRICT OVERNIGHT IS NOW
APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. ITS APPROACH
RESULTED IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER...AND SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE THAN AT THE SAME TIME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
OF ABOUT 12OO FT...WHILE THE NORTH TO SOUTH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...NOW
5.5 MB (VS 2.2 MB) FROM ACV TO SFO. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS WEAK SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. LATEST NAM AND
LOCAL IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE BY AFTERNOON HOURS
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR EVEN FROM THE COAST ITSELF NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE BY LATE MORNING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A TAD WARMER THAN ON MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH THE APPROACH OF EACH OF THE FORMER RESULTING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS...AND THEN
CLEARING AND SOME WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS THE SUBSEQUENT
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN...WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST...AND THEN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT DEEPER THAN THE ONE
THAT`S MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS AT PRESENT ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH
JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR US IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL STRATUS.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE VARIOUS LONGER RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...BUT DO IN GENERAL
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN. FIRST THERE
LOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING QUITE
A WAYS OUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR DISTRICT BEGINNING AROUND
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: W PI

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 151135
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY S OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING WEAK SHORTWAVE. MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS SKIRTING THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND WELL INLAND UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. THIS
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER LAND FROM THE EDGES WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND N OF CAPE
MENDOCINO.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON WED...THEN
SHIFT E ON THU. AN UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG ALONG THE PAC NW
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES
TOWARD S CA. HAVE CONTINUED POPS ABOVE CLIMO LATE THU THRU THU
NIGHT...MAINLY N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROF DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THICKNESSES FALL ACROSS THE W UNITED STATES.

BEST CHANCE OF PATCHY INLAND FROST WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
VALLEY PORTIONS OF TRINITY COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE HWO. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENUF FOR A
FROST ADVISORY...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE LATER. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC
AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH STRATUS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING CEILINGS. MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WATERS
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
INCREASED. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTING ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING PZZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WED PZZ455-470.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM WED PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 151118 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
418 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM. MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT...AS LATE AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND SHOWED INCREASING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/LEINS





000
FXUS66 KLOX 151044
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NEUTRAL SFC GRADIENTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
SOCAL. MARINE LAYER STRATUS FORMED UNDER THE WEAKEST OF TROFS THAT
SCOOTED OVERHEAD LAST NIGHT (THE TROF ALSO BROUGHT SOME SOME WISPY
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO MAKE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE A LITTLE MORE SPOOKY) THE
MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UNDER
THE LOW STRATUS. THE STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER EVERYWHERE TODAY BUT MUCH
MORE SO ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER THE INTERIOR WILL
COOL SOME AS HGTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW DM BEHIND THE TROF.

A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
A PROBLEM BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AND
PENETRATE A LITTLE DEEPER. A LITTLE NORTH WIND EVENT WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTH. LOOK FOR THE MTNS AND
THE SBA SOUTH COAST TO SEE SOME GUST NORTH WINDS. THE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT NOT OVER.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE COASTS AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VLYS...OTHERWISE SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL
ANOTHER ONE TO THREE DEGREES AND MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

A WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS UP INTO THE VLYS. IT WILL ALSO
BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE THE SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. CLEARING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NORMAL AND MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL AGAIN AND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING STRATUS TO ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS BUT IT WILL
ALSO BRING ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EVERYWHERE. SO LETS JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALL MDLS SPIT
OUT RANDOM SQUIRTS OF RAIN AT RANDOM TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE
THAN LIKELY THIS IS JUST MDL NOISE BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT
ZERO JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY BUT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGING. SO LOOK FOR SOME WARMING. THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE EC AND GFS GO THERE MERRY WAYS. THE EC
BUILDS THE RIDGE EACH DAY AND FORECASTS WARMER AND WARMER DAYS. THE
GFS KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN SUNDAY AND BRINGS TROFING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. SO CHOOSE ONE GFS WITH COOLER CONDS AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER OR THE EC WITH A LITTLE OR NO MARINE LAYER...WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AND A HEALTHY WARMING TREND. TRENDED FCST TO GFS AS HAS HAD A
LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAN DIEGO
OFFICE HAS CHOSEN THE EC WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE TEMP DIFFERENCES
FOR LA COUNTY VS THE OC/INLAND EMPIRE ON SUN AND ESP MON.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/0600Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VIS COULD BE OFF BY A FLIGHT CATEGORY. TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDS
THIS MORNING. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC004 THROUGH 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 151041
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
341 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with well above normal high temperatures continuing
through Thursday with a slight chance of showers over the northern
mountains on Friday into the weekend. Breezy northerly winds possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
A more progressive upper air pattern is forecast over the Ern
Pacific and West Coast this week with a series of trofs/ridges
affecting Norcal wx. However...the impacts on Norcal wx will be
relatively slight with mostly dry wx and above normal max temps
continuing for the rest of the work week.

Yesterday`s mention of an Ern Pac trof and associated front eroding
the highly amplified West Coast ridge is currently underway with a
positively tilted (weak) trof moving through the region during the
morning hours. As expected...a band of cirrus gummed-up the skies
over Norcal during the Lunar (Blood Moon) eclipse. But the clouds
were not dense/thick enough to impair viewing over many areas during
the eclipse period and we did receive some awesome photos from
our FB followers during the night. If interested...check them out
at facebook.com/NWSSacramento. The back edge of the cirrus is
progged by NWS speed tracker to mainly be along and S of the I-80
corridor by sunrise. The band of colder/enhanced clouds over the
Pac NW is expected to stay N of our CWA this morning...but some
more high clouds may spread across the Nrn zones this afternoon
and tonite from short wave energy within the NWly flow aloft.

A little cooling is expected in our CWA today behind the short
wave and front...mainly across the Nrn zones as indicated by the
850 mbs and thickness progs. Still max temps will run about 5-10
degrees above normal most locations.

It is mainly the secondary energy embedded in the NWly flow aloft
from the rebuilding Ern Pac ridge in the wake of the short wave
currently moving through the CWA that will give us some gusty/breezy
Nly winds as that energy digs into the Great Basin later tonight and
Wed. The forecast Nly pressure gradients are just a little shy of
our rule-of-thumb for wind advisory criteria. The NAM 925 mbs winds
(~2 kft) peak out in the 30-33 kt range from 12z-18z Wed. This is
a little premature for the time of max heating to optimize
downward momentum transfer which is also problematic for wind
advisory criteria...and this is something we will be working on
today. The peak winds may occur around midday...then decrease
during the afternoon on Wed. Little change in high temps is
expected as the CAA will be offset by downslope warming from the
northerly winds.

Ridging rebuilds over Norcal later Wed afternoon and nite...
decreasing the Nly gradients and turning them modestly NW. This
will promote warming with maxes on Thu some 10-15 degrees above
normal. Lo and behold...another progressive trof will quickly
follow bringing a change in the wx again on Fri. Initially...the
GFS forecasts some instability in the Tuolumne/Alpine County areas
Thu afternoon/evening with also the low chance of some light
showers across Nrn Shasta Co as well. This low chance of showers
will spread SEwd over the Siernev into Fri. The valley is
expected to remain dry... except for perhaps the far N end of the
Sac Vly Thu nite.

This more progressive and deeper trof will likely bring noticeably
cooler temps to Norcal as temps cool from the 80s in the valley on
Thu into the 70s on Fri...but still a few degrees above normal. The
timing of this trof is not quite in phase with the NAM 925 mbs
wind forecast and will hold off on those details for now.   JHM

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Mostly dry and benign weather is on tap for this weekend. A few
weak shortwaves could trigger a shower or two over the Sierra Crest,
but otherwise dry weather will continue. Highs looks to continue
the current above-normal stretch, with readings about 10 degrees
above normal for the Central Valley.

After several weeks of quiet weather along the West Coast, a
change may be in store next week. All extended models are now
showing a deep and cold closed low swinging into NorCal sometime
early next week. We`ll be keeping on eye on this potential pattern
change, particularly if models show consistency in future runs.
For now, have introduced a chance of showers for much of interior
NorCal, along with cooler temperatures. -DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Generally light winds of 10 kts or less expected for
Central Valley TAF sites. Meanwhile, the Delta will see some
15-25 kt southwest winds early this morning, and some 25 kt SW
winds can expected over Sierra ridges this afternoon. -DVC


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 151030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 151030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KREV 151017
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
317 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY LITTLE TO NOTE AS FAR AS ADJUSTMENTS ARE CONCERNED. OTHER
THAN EXPANDING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING, LITTLE HAS CHANGED.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS A DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA. GUSTS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME WIND
PRONE AREAS SEEING A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN DISPLACED WELL NORTH AND EAST INTO IDAHO AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA LEAVING WESTERN NEVADA DRY. TEMPERATURES COOL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA.

TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. DID INCREASE THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95 THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES IN BETWEEN
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVES. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SCALED BACK COVERAGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

FRIDAY, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
GFS/ECMWF AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER, AS FORCING IS WEAK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. NOTE THAT THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER WITH A FASTER TIMING WHICH
WOULD IMPLY NO SHOWERS ON FRIDAY SO, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, I HAVE NOT
INCREASED POP MUCH.

OVER THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL INCREASE BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS COMPARED WITH
THE ECMWF, THE GFS HOLDS IN SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF THE GFS
IS ULTIMATELY CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS
IN MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE-WISE, AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE
OVER THE PAST WEEK, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND.

MONDAY, MODELS DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO POP UP REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE 00Z GFS IS
A FULL 12-18 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF (WITH THE GEM IN BETWEEN) IN
BRINGING IN THE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE TIMING IS
KEY TO FORECASTING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY, THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (GFS) VERSUS 80S AND SUNNY SKIES
(ECMWF). WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY
EXHIBITS LOW CONFIDENCE. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THRU WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS (EXCEPT SOUTH NEAR KTVL DUE TO CHANNELED WINDS) WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20Z/1PM AND 03Z/8PM. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KHNX 151007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA LATE IN THE WEEK. A BOUGHT OF
INCREASED WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INLAND TO OUR NORTH HAS HELPED TO
DRAG A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MAKING BLOOD MOON VIEWING
LAST NIGHT JUST A LITTLE FUZZY. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL HELP TO
MODERATE OUR HIGHS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY JUST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER. WINDS WILL KICK UP ALSO...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE PASSES OF KERN COUNTY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SIERRA SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES AFTER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH IMPACTING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH TIMING AND TRAJECTORY. THE CURRENT FAVORED SOLUTION
WARMS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONSHORE BY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896
KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896

KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KMTR 151006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 151006
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE
REPORTS OF CIGS IN THE SFO BAY AREA WITH SUCH A STRONG N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE NOT YET HAVING
AN IMPACT ON THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CIGS HAVE EVEN REACHED STS.
TERMINAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT MORE CIGS IN THE
SFO BAY AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 24KT AFTER 21Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...925 MB LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 151005
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EVEN A PATCH OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND SAN DIEGO. OVERALL EXPECT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST...BUT STILL WARM
INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL
MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO
INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A
LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND
MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND
CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD
BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU
PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER MODELS BRING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN
AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST
COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151005
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EVEN A PATCH OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND SAN DIEGO. OVERALL EXPECT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST...BUT STILL WARM
INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL
MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO
INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A
LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND
MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND
CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD
BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU
PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER MODELS BRING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN
AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST
COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151005
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EVEN A PATCH OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND SAN DIEGO. OVERALL EXPECT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST...BUT STILL WARM
INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL
MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO
INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A
LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND
MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND
CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD
BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU
PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER MODELS BRING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN
AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST
COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KSGX 151005
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A COOLING TREND WILL START AT
THE COAST. COOLER WEATHER WILL EXTEND INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING NIGHTS AND MORNING AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN TOUCHING THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EVEN A PATCH OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AROUND SAN DIEGO. OVERALL EXPECT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
FAIRLY NICE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE COAST...BUT STILL WARM
INLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR NORTH AND
THAT WILL BOOST OUR ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL
MEAN WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ISOLATED GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH...BUT MOST SPOTS TO STAY BELOW 35 MPH. A COASTAL EDDY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL HELP EXTEND LOW CLOUDS INTO
INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING A
LOT OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF DEEPER MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH MID 60S TO
MID 70S IN THE COASTAL BASIN. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AND DIALING BACK THE MARINE LAYER AND
MOUNTAIN/DESERT WINDS. BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING GREATLY TO FIND
CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK. SOME WARMER WEATHER MONDAY LOOKS A GOOD
BET...BUT HOW MUCH WARMER DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU
PREFER. THE EURO MODEL GOES BIG ON A RIDGE AND THE WARMTH WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DO NOT. AND THOSE LATTER MODELS BRING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INTO THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE EURO WASHES IT OUT ALMOST COMPLETELY. WE WILL GO WITH AN
AMBIGUOUS MODEL BLEND UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED...A MODEST
COOLING TREND AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
150930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 200-400 FT MSL AND TOPS 500
FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAVE PUSHED UP TO 5
MILES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS AT KSAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM THROUGH AT LEAST 15/1200Z. KCRQ AND
KSNA WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS PATCHY AT BEST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH BASES
BETWEEN 500-900 FT MSL WILL REMAIN SCT/BKN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE ORANGE
COASTAL COUNTY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JT





000
FXUS66 KLOX 150803
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)EVENING UPDATE...AS EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS WERE
UP 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE AROUND 3
TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ALONG COASTAL AREAS EXCEPT LONG BEACH WHICH WAS
13 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AT 80 DEGREES. THE NAM-WRF MODEL WAS
OVERDOING THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED
NEGATIVE ALL DAY...THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE GRADIENT WAS -2.7MB
BETWEEN LAX-DAG. THERE WERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...BUT COASTAL AREAS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILED FROM LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER A
WEAKENING RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WAS STRATUS SITTING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST...IN FACT VANDENBERG AFB AND LOMPOC ARE ALREADY SEEING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN FROM THE WEST AFFECTING SBA SOUTH COAST...VENTURA AND
POSSIBLY LA COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AND
CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ALONG THE COAST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS COASTAL
VALLEYS. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA CLARITA LIKELY IN THE UPPER
80S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND WIND PRONE CANYONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE INCREASING NW TO N WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. IT LOOKS CLOSE FOR ALL THESE AREAS TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z RUN COME IN
FIRST. THEREFORE WILL LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND  WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR SANTA BARBARA SHOULD KEEP
SKIES CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AN ADDITIONAL
5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. WEAK TROFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING INTO
THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

15/0600Z

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VIS COULD BE OFF BY A FLIGHT CATEGORY. TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VFR CONDS
THIS MORNING. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVC004 THROUGH 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...ASR
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 150559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE LOW CLOUD COVER ON THE COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY NO CHANGES
FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION AS THE FORECAST MOSTLY HINGES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT FOR THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT REACH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 12-17
KNOTS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. NO SIGNS OF STRATUS...SO FAR SO
GOOD AS THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT SLOWLY CLIMBS HIGHER. THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FOLLOWS THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTING THE
ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO REACH 6-8 MB TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KEEPING THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL IMMEDIATE COAST OVERLAP.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR IS FORECAST TONIGHT. 925 MB LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY (TO THE SINGLE DIGITS)
BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. VFR IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 150559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE LOW CLOUD COVER ON THE COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY NO CHANGES
FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION AS THE FORECAST MOSTLY HINGES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT FOR THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT REACH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 12-17
KNOTS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. NO SIGNS OF STRATUS...SO FAR SO
GOOD AS THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT SLOWLY CLIMBS HIGHER. THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FOLLOWS THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTING THE
ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO REACH 6-8 MB TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KEEPING THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL IMMEDIATE COAST OVERLAP.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR IS FORECAST TONIGHT. 925 MB LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY (TO THE SINGLE DIGITS)
BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. VFR IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 150559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE LOW CLOUD COVER ON THE COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY NO CHANGES
FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION AS THE FORECAST MOSTLY HINGES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT FOR THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT REACH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 12-17
KNOTS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. NO SIGNS OF STRATUS...SO FAR SO
GOOD AS THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT SLOWLY CLIMBS HIGHER. THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FOLLOWS THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTING THE
ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO REACH 6-8 MB TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KEEPING THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL IMMEDIATE COAST OVERLAP.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR IS FORECAST TONIGHT. 925 MB LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY (TO THE SINGLE DIGITS)
BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. VFR IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 150559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
THE LOW CLOUD COVER ON THE COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY NO CHANGES
FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION AS THE FORECAST MOSTLY HINGES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT FOR THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT.
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT REACH INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WEST WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING BETWEEN 12-17
KNOTS IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. NO SIGNS OF STRATUS...SO FAR SO
GOOD AS THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT SLOWLY CLIMBS HIGHER. THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FOLLOWS THE NAM MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTING THE
ACV-SFO GRADIENT TO REACH 6-8 MB TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR KEEPING THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL IMMEDIATE COAST OVERLAP.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR IS FORECAST TONIGHT. 925 MB LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY (TO THE SINGLE DIGITS)
BY 18Z TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE LAST COUPLE NAM MODEL RUNS. THE DRYING
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS. VFR IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 150420
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INLAND...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER STARTS TO MODIFY COASTAL
TEMPERATURES.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST.  COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHLAND ARE NOW WEAKLY ONSHORE...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
MEANWHILE...SKIES ARE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE
FOG IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHLAND
AS WELL AS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THE HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT APPEAR THICK ENOUGH TO OBSCURE
THE VIEWING OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE LATER THIS EVENING...SO
ENJOY.  THOSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THOUGH MAY HAVE SOME VIEWING
ISSUES...THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUDS.  IN FACT...THE 00Z KNKX SOUNDING
SHOWED THAT THE INVERSION REMAINS AROUND 1200 FEET.  THIS MATCHES
PRETTY WELL WITH THE CLOUD LEVELS THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING AT
THE COASTAL ASOSES.  THE 18Z LOCAL WRF IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...SO AM
CONCERNED THAT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD FORM...AS THE MARINE
LAYER FILLS IN TONIGHT.  FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WORDING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT HELD OFF
ON THE PATCHY DENSE WORDING FOR NOW.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.  THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME COOLER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW...AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE AIR STARTS TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS
THOUGH WILL STILL BE WARM...AND WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR MAY EVEN BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY.  COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THE COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT.

THE MODELS THEN REALLY START TO DEVIATE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHAT WILL HAPPEN...BUT THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM ANOTHER RIDGE TO
ANOTHER TROUGH.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
150345Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 600-1000 FT MSL HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. KSAN AND KCRQ HAVE
CIGS AS OF 03Z AND THERE IS ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OUT NEAR SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND THAT MAY MOVE TOWARD SHORE AS WELL. GIVEN THE HEIGHT
OF THE CLOUD BASES...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3 SM AT THE TAF
SITES...LOCALLY LOWER IF CLOUDS MEET ANY HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON DURATION OF THE CIGS SO HAVE KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS IN FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
DECREASE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS







000
FXUS66 KMTR 150408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:52 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES...THE NORTH
HALF OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE BIG SUR COAST. THE KEY TO
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH IS SLOWLY AND STEADILY INCREASING...PRESENTLY UP TO
4.7 MB. INTERESTINGLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS WEAK OFFSHORE AT 1.7
MB WHILE THE LATEST NAM PREDICTED IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE BY NOW. THE
MORE LOCAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY TO SONOMA
COUNTY ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM MODEL PREDICTS AS WELL.
ALL IN ALL WE`LL BE WATCHING THE STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TAKE
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERNMOST CA.

INITIALLY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST...IN ADDITION
TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE JUST FROM BUSTING ON CLOUD COVER FORECASTS
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE
OF TROUGHS USUALLY FOCUSES STRONGER WINDS OVER THE BAY AREA FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME WHICH IF COINCIDING WITH A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD
AND THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION CAN PUSH SOME OF
THE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE BAY AREA SOONER VERSUS LATER...BUT A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT/WIND THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE BAY AREA RATHER
KEEPING THE STRATUS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
COASTAL WATERS. SO IT`S A BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO AND FORECASTING
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE AND WON`T BE IS ALWAYS A LESSON IN HUMILITY.
AS THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING VFR IS VERY
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PER CWSU STRATUS RESEARCH FOR KSFO TERMINAL
THERE`S A 90% CHANCE OF NO EARLY RETURN (03Z-06Z) WHEN THE SFO-ACV
/SFO-SAC RATIO IS < OR = -1.1 MB AND PRESENTLY IT`S -3.6 MB. DESPITE
A GUSTY WEST WIND TO 27 KNOTS AND THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF STRATUS
SEEN PER RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...PRESENT THINKING (INCLUDING
COORDINATION W/ THE CWSU FORECASTER) IS THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE FALLEN BEHIND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
THEREFORE WAS INCLINED TO REDUCE PREVAILING CIG COVERAGE IN THE 00Z
TAF. THERE`S A HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL RETURN EARLY TO KSFO FOR
TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OFTEN LEADS TO A SOLID OVERCAST FOR THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. 00Z TAFS KSNS AND KMRY LEAN THIS WAY. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING TUESDAY AS THE NW WINDS OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY CAN CONTINUE TO FORCE ADDITIONAL STRATUS IN OVER THE
AREA ALL THROUGH THE DAY SOMETIMES. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR RETURNING/CLEARING BY 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 150408
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST. AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT MONDAY...SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A LINE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
NEARER THE SURFACE...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST NEAR THE OCEAN
AND HAVE BEGUN TO ADVANCE A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND. THE MARINE
LAYER IS STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW (CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP
AT FORT ORD) AND THE N-S SURFACE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO IS
RELATIVELY STRONG AT 4.6 MB. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM MAKING THEIR WAY VERY FAR INLAND IN THE SHORT-
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY GOOD VIEWING OF THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BLOCK THE VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE FROM THE
VANTAGE POINT OF MOST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...CONSIDERABLE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE THE ECLIPSE TO SOME EXTENT EVEN ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

THE AXIS OF THE DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER...ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS TO SURGE FARTHER INLAND LATE TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE DRY FRONT ON
TUESDAY SHOULD MIX OUT MOST MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER AND SO
EXPECT ONLY MODEST DECREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA. BUT TEMPS WILL THEN COOL
BACK A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHER THAN THESE MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AND THERE`S NO RAIN IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN MAY REACH OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL OUTPUT (18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z GEM) SUGGEST THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:52 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES...THE NORTH
HALF OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE BIG SUR COAST. THE KEY TO
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH IS SLOWLY AND STEADILY INCREASING...PRESENTLY UP TO
4.7 MB. INTERESTINGLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS WEAK OFFSHORE AT 1.7
MB WHILE THE LATEST NAM PREDICTED IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE BY NOW. THE
MORE LOCAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY TO SONOMA
COUNTY ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM MODEL PREDICTS AS WELL.
ALL IN ALL WE`LL BE WATCHING THE STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TAKE
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERNMOST CA.

INITIALLY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST...IN ADDITION
TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE JUST FROM BUSTING ON CLOUD COVER FORECASTS
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE
OF TROUGHS USUALLY FOCUSES STRONGER WINDS OVER THE BAY AREA FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME WHICH IF COINCIDING WITH A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD
AND THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION CAN PUSH SOME OF
THE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE BAY AREA SOONER VERSUS LATER...BUT A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT/WIND THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE BAY AREA RATHER
KEEPING THE STRATUS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
COASTAL WATERS. SO IT`S A BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO AND FORECASTING
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE AND WON`T BE IS ALWAYS A LESSON IN HUMILITY.
AS THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING VFR IS VERY
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PER CWSU STRATUS RESEARCH FOR KSFO TERMINAL
THERE`S A 90% CHANCE OF NO EARLY RETURN (03Z-06Z) WHEN THE SFO-ACV
/SFO-SAC RATIO IS < OR = -1.1 MB AND PRESENTLY IT`S -3.6 MB. DESPITE
A GUSTY WEST WIND TO 27 KNOTS AND THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF STRATUS
SEEN PER RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...PRESENT THINKING (INCLUDING
COORDINATION W/ THE CWSU FORECASTER) IS THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE FALLEN BEHIND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
THEREFORE WAS INCLINED TO REDUCE PREVAILING CIG COVERAGE IN THE 00Z
TAF. THERE`S A HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL RETURN EARLY TO KSFO FOR
TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OFTEN LEADS TO A SOLID OVERCAST FOR THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. 00Z TAFS KSNS AND KMRY LEAN THIS WAY. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING TUESDAY AS THE NW WINDS OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY CAN CONTINUE TO FORCE ADDITIONAL STRATUS IN OVER THE
AREA ALL THROUGH THE DAY SOMETIMES. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR RETURNING/CLEARING BY 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 150349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION AND WASHED
OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING/LIGHT NWLY
FLOW ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN
OFF RAPIDLY. DESPITE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LIGHTER
WINDS...EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
COOL...THOUGH THE TREND IN NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HASTEN LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY THESE MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014/
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS
MORNING.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 150349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION AND WASHED
OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING/LIGHT NWLY
FLOW ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN
OFF RAPIDLY. DESPITE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LIGHTER
WINDS...EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
COOL...THOUGH THE TREND IN NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HASTEN LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY THESE MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014/
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS
MORNING.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS66 KSTO 150347
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
847 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with well above normal high temperatures continuing
through Thursday with a slight chance of showers over the northern
mountains on Friday into the weekend. Breezy northerly winds possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
The tail end of a very weak shortwave is moving into northern
California this evening. High clouds will be moving through the
region overnight that may cause some minor viewing problems of
the eclipse overnight.

Slightly cooler air will continues to advect into the region for
Tuesday and winds will become northerly again to offset the
cooling effects for the valley but the Mountains should see some
slight cooling. Varying amounts of high clouds will pass through
the region over the next day.

Conditions still look dry over the interior through Thursday
morning. Surface high pressure will strengthen to the north and
over the Great Basin to bring breezy conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures for Wednesday. A slightly stronger shortwave
will bring a slight chance of showers over the mountains late
Thursday and Thursday night.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models continue to struggle with the weak storm waves that could
brush NorCal from Friday into the weekend. This first wave late
Thursday into early Friday morning could bring a slight chance of
light showers to the Northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
terrain. Some light, isolated showers could linger on Friday in
the mountains. On Saturday, the latest models are showing a drier
trend so have lessened the slight chance of showers to just the
highest elevations within our CWA. The CNRFC is estimating that
total rain amounts from Thursday through Saturday will only amount to
a few hundredths of an inch with some local areas getting around a
tenth of an inch. For Sunday, the ECMWF and GFS are showing a dry,
ridging pattern while the GEM shows another weak trough brushing
NorCal so have kept minimal areas of slight chance of showers.
Despite the low confidence in details, impacts will be minimal
with these weak storm waves. JBB


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions continue for interior NorCal for the next 24
hours. Just some high clouds from a weak cold front passing to the
north tonight. Generally light southerly winds through the rest of
tonight. Exceptions are locally gusts to around 20 kt in the Delta
and northwest winds generally at or below 10 kt for the northern
San Joaquin Valley. Winds shift to northwest across the Valley
Tuesday around 5-10 kt, with west winds gusting to 25 kt over
ridges in the Sierra. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 150334
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)EVENING UPDATE...AS EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS WERE
UP 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE AROUND 3
TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ALONG COASTAL AREAS EXCEPT LONG BEACH WHICH WAS
13 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AT 80 DEGREES. AS THE EARLIER DISCUSSION
PRELUDED TOO...THE NAM-WRF MODEL WAS OVERDOING THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED NEGATIVE ALL DAY...THE
STRONGEST OFFSHORE GRADIENT WAS -2.7MB BETWEEN LAX-DAG. THERE WERE
SUB ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS...BUT COASTAL AREAS WERE
NOT AFFECTED AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILED FROM LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER A
WEAKENING RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WAS STRATUS SITTING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST...IN FACT VANDENBERG AFB AND LOMPOC ARE ALREADY SEEING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN FROM THE WEST AFFECTING SBA SOUTH COAST...VENTURA AND
POSSIBLY LA COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AND
CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ALONG THE COAST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS COASTAL
VALLEYS. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA CLARITA LIKELY IN THE UPPER
80S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND WIND PRONE CANYONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE INCREASING NW TO N WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. IT LOOKS CLOSE FOR ALL THESE AREAS TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z RUN COME IN
FIRST. THEREFORE WILL LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND  WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR SANTA BARBARA SHOULD KEEP
SKIES CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AN ADDITIONAL
5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. WEAK TROFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING INTO
THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0000Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT KSMX AND KSBP WITH 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS AFTER 05Z.  THERE WILL BE STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSBA WITH SOME LLWS AFTER 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KLOX 150315
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
810 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)EVENING UPDATE...AS EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS WERE
UP 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE AROUND 3
TO 6 DEGREES WARMER ALONG COASTAL AREAS EXCEPT LONG BEACH WHICH WAS
13 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AT 80 DEGREES. AS THE EARLIER DISCUSSION
PRELUDED TOO...THE NAM-WRF MODEL WAS OVERDOING THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED NEGATIVE ALL DAY...THE
STRONGEST OFFSHORE GRADIENT WAS -2.7MB BETWEEN LAX-DAG. THERE WERE
SUB ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS...BUT COASTAL AREAS WERE
NOT AFFECTED AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILED FROM LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER A
WEAKENING RIDGE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WAS STRATUS SITTING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST...IN FACT VANDENBERG AFB AND LOMPOC ARE ALREADY SEEING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO
ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVE. THIS DENSE FOG
COULD MAKE IT INTO SANTA MARIA AND WILL ADJUST THE EVE FORECAST FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING ALONG THE
COAST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA CLARITA LIKELY IN THE UPPER 80S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY NW TO N WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND WIND PRONE CANYONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE INCREASING NW TO N WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. IT LOOKS CLOSE FOR ALL THESE AREAS TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z RUN COME IN
FIRST. THEREFORE WILL LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION FOR
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND  WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR SANTA BARBARA SHOULD KEEP
SKIES CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AN ADDITIONAL
5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. WEAK TROFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING INTO
THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0000Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT KSMX AND KSBP WITH 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDS AFTER 05Z.  THERE WILL BE STRONGER
SUNDOWNER WINDS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSBA WITH SOME LLWS AFTER 21Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/MW
AVIATION...CK
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KMTR 150053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
553 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:52 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES...THE NORTH
HALF OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE BIG SUR COAST. THE KEY TO
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH IS SLOWLY AND STEADILY INCREASING...PRESENTLY UP TO
4.7 MB. INTERESTINGLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS WEAK OFFSHORE AT 1.7
MB WHILE THE LATEST NAM PREDICTED IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE BY NOW. THE
MORE LOCAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY TO SONOMA
COUNTY ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM MODEL PREDICTS AS WELL.
ALL IN ALL WE`LL BE WATCHING THE STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TAKE
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERNMOST CA.

INITIALLY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST...IN ADDITION
TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE JUST FROM BUSTING ON CLOUD COVER FORECASTS
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE
OF TROUGHS USUALLY FOCUSES STRONGER WINDS OVER THE BAY AREA FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME WHICH IF COINCIDING WITH A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD
AND THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION CAN PUSH SOME OF
THE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE BAY AREA SOONER VERSUS LATER...BUT A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT/WIND THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE BAY AREA RATHER
KEEPING THE STRATUS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
COASTAL WATERS. SO IT`S A BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO AND FORECASTING
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE AND WON`T BE IS ALWAYS A LESSON IN HUMILITY.
AS THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING VFR IS VERY
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PER CWSU STRATUS RESEARCH FOR KSFO TERMINAL
THERE`S A 90% CHANCE OF NO EARLY RETURN (03Z-06Z) WHEN THE SFO-ACV
/SFO-SAC RATIO IS < OR = -1.1 MB AND PRESENTLY IT`S -3.6 MB. DESPITE
A GUSTY WEST WIND TO 27 KNOTS AND THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF STRATUS
SEEN PER RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...PRESENT THINKING (INCLUDING
COORDINATION W/ THE CWSU FORECASTER) IS THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE FALLEN BEHIND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
THEREFORE WAS INCLINED TO REDUCE PREVAILING CIG COVERAGE IN THE 00Z
TAF. THERE`S A HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL RETURN EARLY TO KSFO FOR
TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OFTEN LEADS TO A SOLID OVERCAST FOR THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. 00Z TAFS KSNS AND KMRY LEAN THIS WAY. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING TUESDAY AS THE NW WINDS OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY CAN CONTINUE TO FORCE ADDITONAL STRATUS IN OVER THE
AREA ALL THROUGH THE DAY SOMETIMES. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR RETURNING/CLEARING BY 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 150053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
553 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:52 PM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT REYES...THE NORTH
HALF OF THE MONTEREY BAY AND THE BIG SUR COAST. THE KEY TO
TONIGHT`S FORECAST IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ACV-SFO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH IS SLOWLY AND STEADILY INCREASING...PRESENTLY UP TO
4.7 MB. INTERESTINGLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS WEAK OFFSHORE AT 1.7
MB WHILE THE LATEST NAM PREDICTED IT SHOULD BE ONSHORE BY NOW. THE
MORE LOCAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS FROM MENDOCINO COUNTY TO SONOMA
COUNTY ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM MODEL PREDICTS AS WELL.
ALL IN ALL WE`LL BE WATCHING THE STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TAKE
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERNMOST CA.

INITIALLY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST...IN ADDITION
TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE JUST FROM BUSTING ON CLOUD COVER FORECASTS
FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE
OF TROUGHS USUALLY FOCUSES STRONGER WINDS OVER THE BAY AREA FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME WHICH IF COINCIDING WITH A WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD
AND THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION CAN PUSH SOME OF
THE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE BAY AREA SOONER VERSUS LATER...BUT A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT/WIND THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE BAY AREA RATHER
KEEPING THE STRATUS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
COASTAL WATERS. SO IT`S A BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO AND FORECASTING
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE AND WON`T BE IS ALWAYS A LESSON IN HUMILITY.
AS THE DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING VFR IS VERY
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE AREA TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PER CWSU STRATUS RESEARCH FOR KSFO TERMINAL
THERE`S A 90% CHANCE OF NO EARLY RETURN (03Z-06Z) WHEN THE SFO-ACV
/SFO-SAC RATIO IS < OR = -1.1 MB AND PRESENTLY IT`S -3.6 MB. DESPITE
A GUSTY WEST WIND TO 27 KNOTS AND THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF STRATUS
SEEN PER RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...PRESENT THINKING (INCLUDING
COORDINATION W/ THE CWSU FORECASTER) IS THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD
STAY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE FALLEN BEHIND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS
THEREFORE WAS INCLINED TO REDUCE PREVAILING CIG COVERAGE IN THE 00Z
TAF. THERE`S A HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL RETURN EARLY TO KSFO FOR
TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OFTEN LEADS TO A SOLID OVERCAST FOR THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. 00Z TAFS KSNS AND KMRY LEAN THIS WAY. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING TUESDAY AS THE NW WINDS OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY CAN CONTINUE TO FORCE ADDITONAL STRATUS IN OVER THE
AREA ALL THROUGH THE DAY SOMETIMES. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR RETURNING/CLEARING BY 18Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 150010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...OFFSHORE FLOW ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED, BUT ESPECIALLY THE NAM.
THERE WERE A COUPLE HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN A COUPLE
SPOTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WAS A DUD. VALLEYS DID SEE A NICE
WARMUP INTO THE 80S BUT COASTAL AREAS STRUGGLED TO GET TO 70 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SIMILAR OFFSHORE GRADIENT EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, AND WITH LESS
MARINE LAYER TO DEAL WITH IN THE MORNING COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAY. INLAND AREAS ALSO EXPECTING
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING.

A WEAK TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. INCREASED MARINE LYR COVERAGE EXPECTED
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS. A WEAK SUNDOWNER EXPECTED FOR SRN SBA COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WEAK TROFFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL
BRING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING
INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0000Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 150001
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...OFFSHORE FLOW ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED, BUT ESPECIALLY THE NAM.
THERE WERE A COUPLE HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN A COUPLE
SPOTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WAS A DUD. VALLEYS DID SEE A NICE
WARMUP INTO THE 80S BUT COASTAL AREAS STRUGGLED TO GET TO 70 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SIMILAR OFFSHORE GRADIENT EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, AND WITH LESS
MARINE LAYER TO DEAL WITH IN THE MORNING COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAY. INLAND AREAS ALSO EXPECTING
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING.

A WEAK TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. INCREASED MARINE LYR COVERAGE EXPECTED
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS. A WEAK SUNDOWNER EXPECTED FOR SRN SBA COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WEAK TROFFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL
BRING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING
INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0000Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z TUE MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...CK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSTO 142217
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 PM PDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with well above normal high temperatures continuing
through Thursday with a slight chance of showers over the northern
mountains on Friday into the weekend. Breezy northerly winds possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
Daytime highs still on the rise as a high pressure ridge over
NorCal brings another day of above normal temperatures. Current
thermometers across the valley are ranging in the mid 70s to low
80s. Temperatures over higher elevations are currently ranging
from the mid-50s (near Sierra crest) to the mid 70s (foothills).
Overnight lows will be near to slightly above normal.

For those of you staying up tonight to watch the eclipse between
11 pm to 2:30 am (PDT): There will be some high clouds streaming
over NorCal but they should be few to scattered so that you can
still see the moon for most of the event. Temperatures in the
valley will start off in the upper 50s to low 60s around 11
pm...becoming mid to upper 50s during the total eclipse (midnight
to 1:30 am)...low to mid 50s by the end of the eclipse. For higher
elevations, the temperatures during the eclipse will be in the 30s
near Sierra Crest and into the low 50s for elevations above the
foothills.

Tomorrow onward, the forecast will remain warm and dry. Daytime
highs will cool slightly as a system approaches the Pacific
Northwest. In terms of impacts for our CWA in the short term,
there will be breezy to locally gusty winds expected Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Winds will be enhanced in the Sacramento
Valley into the Northern San Joaquin Valley, especially along the
I-5 corridor and westward. Gusts up to around 30-35 mph are
possible for these regions.

By Thursday, winds will return to light flow and temperatures will
warm slightly as slight ridging re-develops. Daytime highs in the
valley could warm back towards the mid 80s for our CWA. On
Thursday night, this ridge pushes eastward as the first of a
series of weak storm waves moves into the West Coast. We could
start to see some very light precipitation over the highest
elevations Thursday night.  JBB

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models continue to struggle with the weak storm waves that could
brush NorCal from Friday into the weekend. This first wave late
Thursday into early Friday morning could bring a slight chance of
light showers to the Northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
terrain. Some light, isolated showers could linger on Friday in
the mountains. On Saturday, the latest models are showing a drier
trend so have lessened the slight chance of showers to just the
highest elevations within our CWA. The CNRFC is estimating that
total rain amounts from Thursday through Saturday will only amount to
a few hundredths of an inch with some local areas getting around a
tenth of an inch. For Sunday, the ECMWF and GFS are showing a dry,
ridging pattern while the GEM shows another weak trough brushing
NorCal so have kept minimal areas of slight chance of showers.
Despite the low confidence in details, impacts will be minimal
with these weak storm waves. JBB


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions for interior NorCal for the next 24 hours.
Generally light southerly winds through this evening. Exceptions
are locally gusts to around 20 kt in the Delta and northwest winds
generally at or below 10 kt for the northern San Joaquin Valley.
Winds shift to northwest across the Valley Tuesday around 5-10 kt,
with west winds gusting to 25 kt in the Sierra. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 142214
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
314 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST COAST TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY SQUASHING THE MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST AND REDUCING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SUMMER FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH COOLER THAN SUMMER...FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST AND
WARMER TEMPS INLAND. WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NIGHT
SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE FROST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED...SO NO
FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

ON THURSDAY A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CLIP
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR
AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE RIDGE RESULTING IN WARM AFTERNOON INTERIOR
VALLEY TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG OVERNIGHT INVERSION. EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF POORER OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE COAST. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS FILTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE AREAS OF THE COAST
REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. THESE AREAS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
CLEARING BEFORE NIGHTFALL, HOWEVER, FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT. COASTAL STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO PARTS OF THE HUMBOLDT AND MENDOCINO COASTS TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
TO IFR FOR THESE AREAS OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. KML


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
INNER WATERS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE STARTED SOONER IF
NEARSHORE CONDITIONS RAMP UP FASTER THAN 10Z. OTHERWISE MARINE ZONE
475 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING STARTING AT 4Z SINCE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RAMP UP TO GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
LARGE SEAS AND NEAR GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS SIGNAL FOR A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS WOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND THUS WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WHICH MAY INCREASE SHOALING HAZARDS BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT THIS TIME. KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KREV 142149
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
249 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND
PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IN DEFERENCE TO THE WETTER GFS AND SOME HINT OF PCPN ON
THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
BRINGING INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. WHILE THESE SFC
WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST MUCH BEYOND 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY...CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON AREA LAKES. FOR NOW THINK
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN A SMALL WINDOW LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR A POSSIBLE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN
SLIDES EAST. BY THURSDAY THE GFS IS BECOMING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING ANOTHER WAVE AND SFC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD
OF THIS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN DOWN WITH THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT AS THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH...BUT DID NOT FEEL WE COULD LEAVE OUT
ALL MENTION AT THIS POINT. FRONTOGENESIS COULD BE RATHER STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE SO EVEN LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
NEAR THE SIERRA. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SIERRA OR
WESTERN NV UNTIL AFTER MONDAY.

OVERALL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED DRIER
WITH WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE SIERRA. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM MONO TO MINERAL AND SOUTHERN CHURCHILL
COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT OUTSIDE OF MONO
COUNTY, THIS SHOWER POSSIBILITY IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, HAVE LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE
SIERRA, AND A VERY SMALL PART OF WESTERN NV FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS TO
SOUTHWEST MINERAL COUNTY. THIS MAY STILL BE OVERDONE BASED ON MOST
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA LIMITING PRECIP TO MONO COUNTY, BUT THE
00Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY FAVORED BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SO WE WILL
NOT SWING COMPLETELY TOWARD THE DRIER TREND. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS IN CA-NV ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV. IN EITHER CASE, MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
SOME VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS A STRONGER
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS BRINGS THIS TROUGH
INLAND AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY DECENT WET PERIOD FOR THE FOLLOWING 1-2 DAYS.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS SURGING INTO THE MID 80S, FOLLOWED BY
THE TROUGH BEING DEFLECTED TO THE PACIFIC NW WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FOR EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV.

DUE TO THESE CONTRASTING SCENARIOS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT
MONDAY IS LOW AND WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ABOVE SCENARIOS. WE WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY BUT
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU TUESDAY WITH INCREASING AREAS OF CIRRUS STARTING TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUES AM. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 20-04Z. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS66 KHNX 142101
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
201 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH SIERRA LATE IN THE WEEK. A BOUGHT OF
INCREASED WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ABATING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE SJV THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS HAD PEAKED IN THE MID 40S MPH BUT ARE DROPPING INTO THE 20S
AND 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON TRACK TO HIT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
WARM HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EVIDENT
TO THE WEST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS COULD BRING SOME
OBSCURATION TO THE LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING THOUGH WE REALLY DON/T
EXPECT A SHOW STOPPER IN WAY OF CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH FAIRLY FLAT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
ANOTHER PASSING SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES. ONLY THING TO NOTE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY. MASS FIELDS SUPPORT A SOLID
INCREASE IN WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
MID-MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME FORECAST GUSTS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE PARADE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGH SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE EXPECTED UPS AND DOWNS. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE MAY FINALLY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNDAY AS EC/GFS
ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA PROMOTING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. OF COURSE THAT WOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A RETURN TO THE 90S.
REGARDLESS WE/LL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-14       98:1985     52:1956     60:1985     36:1972
KFAT 04-15       96:1947     57:1988     62:1925     35:1970
KFAT 04-16       95:1947     51:1917     58:1947     35:1896

KBFL 04-14       99:1985     56:2003     62:1962     33:1893
KBFL 04-15       97:1994     57:2007     61:1947     36:1921
KBFL 04-16       97:1947     50:1995     64:1947     34:1922
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








000
FXUS66 KMTR 142051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 142051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 142051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 142051
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
151 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE WEST COAST. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND PUSHED
FURTHER INLAND AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLEST ALONG THE
COASTLINE WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO REBUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SAYING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

HAVING SAID THAT, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST MARINE LAYER
STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 142049 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILT INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION LAST
NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
EARLIER TODAY...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER EASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE HOLD. A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KIPL AND KBLH EARLIER TODAY TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH AREA TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO
FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 142049 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILT INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION LAST
NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
EARLIER TODAY...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER EASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE HOLD. A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KIPL AND KBLH EARLIER TODAY TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH AREA TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO
FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 142046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES. WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
THE MOST PART.

FOR KPHX...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE ISOBARS/GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z OR SO...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS GIVEN
THAT THE 2-3K LAYER WILL HAVE NELY WINDS TO 30KT. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN NELY AT 10-15KT THE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS REDUCED. ATTM WILL
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAF...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE THRU
MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...EXPECTED
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KBLH...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KIPL...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY 16Z OR SO...WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KT. EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AT SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS66 KSGX 142036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED FAIR AND WARM INLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL MODERATE AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. CONTINUED COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FAIR
AND WARM AGAIN FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS -5.8 MB SAN-TPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

NOT QUITE AS WARM FOR TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED AND
DEFORMED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE SFC HIGH SEWD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SEABREEZE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST...BUT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD STILL SEE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WED AND THU AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERTS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SOCAL AS WE BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOCAL AND NRN BAJA FRI
THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAY ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE FAIR AND WARM...WITH
SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
142025Z...WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LLWS MAY OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS
WELL AS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. LOCALLY MODERATE UPDRAFTS
AND DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS KEEPING THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
DECREASE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 142036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED FAIR AND WARM INLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL MODERATE AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. CONTINUED COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FAIR
AND WARM AGAIN FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS -5.8 MB SAN-TPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

NOT QUITE AS WARM FOR TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED AND
DEFORMED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE SFC HIGH SEWD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SEABREEZE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST...BUT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD STILL SEE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WED AND THU AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERTS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SOCAL AS WE BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOCAL AND NRN BAJA FRI
THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAY ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE FAIR AND WARM...WITH
SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
142025Z...WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LLWS MAY OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS
WELL AS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. LOCALLY MODERATE UPDRAFTS
AND DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS KEEPING THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
DECREASE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 142036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED FAIR AND WARM INLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL MODERATE AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. CONTINUED COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FAIR
AND WARM AGAIN FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS -5.8 MB SAN-TPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

NOT QUITE AS WARM FOR TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED AND
DEFORMED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE SFC HIGH SEWD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SEABREEZE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST...BUT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD STILL SEE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WED AND THU AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERTS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SOCAL AS WE BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOCAL AND NRN BAJA FRI
THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAY ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE FAIR AND WARM...WITH
SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
142025Z...WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LLWS MAY OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS
WELL AS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. LOCALLY MODERATE UPDRAFTS
AND DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS KEEPING THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
DECREASE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KSGX 142036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED FAIR AND WARM INLAND ON TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL MODERATE AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES...INCREASING NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. CONTINUED COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FAIR
AND WARM AGAIN FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS -5.8 MB SAN-TPH. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW GUSTING IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

NOT QUITE AS WARM FOR TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED AND
DEFORMED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE SFC HIGH SEWD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SEABREEZE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST...BUT PORTIONS
OF THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD STILL SEE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WED AND THU AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERTS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW...BUT IT WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SOCAL AS WE BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOCAL AND NRN BAJA FRI
THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MAY ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE FAIR AND WARM...WITH
SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
142025Z...WEAKENING OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LLWS MAY OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS
WELL AS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. LOCALLY MODERATE UPDRAFTS
AND DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS KEEPING THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
DECREASE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL






000
FXUS66 KLOX 141959
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
100 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WARMER LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...OFFSHORE FLOW ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED, BUT ESPECIALLY THE NAM.
THERE WERE A COUPLE HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN A COUPLE
SPOTS BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WAS A DUD. VALLEYS DID SEE A NICE
WARMUP INTO THE 80S BUT COASTAL AREAS STRUGGLED TO GET TO 70 DESPITE
AMPLE SUNSHINE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SIMILAR OFFSHORE GRADIENT EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, AND WITH LESS
MARINE LAYER TO DEAL WITH IN THE MORNING COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY
SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAY. INLAND AREAS ALSO EXPECTING
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING.

A WEAK TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. INCREASED MARINE LYR COVERAGE EXPECTED
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE VALLEYS, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS. A WEAK SUNDOWNER EXPECTED FOR SRN SBA COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WEAK TROFFING AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THU WILL
BRING TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH THE MARINE LYR PUSHING
INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY. FRI/SAT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA SUN/MON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WARM THINGS UP ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE. THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT TEMPS FOR THE
SUN/MON TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT MORE.
LONGER RANGE THE MODELS ARE REALLY OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED WHILE THE ECMWF JUST
HAS A VERY WEAK TROF PASSAGE ON WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT QUITE AS
MUCH SPREAD WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BUT STILL ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1800Z.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESTRICT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LA COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...IN SPITE OF SOME DOUBT ABOUT
WHETHER MARINE CLOUDS MIGHT REACH KLAX OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO THE AIRFIELD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 141845
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT MON APR 14 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.  COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG... THEN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...PULLED THE PLUG ON THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT`S MARGINAL AT BEST.
GRADIENTS JUST DIDN`T PAN OUT SO THE NAM AGAIN WAS WAY OVERDONE. I
THINK WE`LL STILL SEE A LITTLE OFFSHORE WIND LATER THIS MORNING
FILTERING DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE VENTURA COASTAL
PLAIN BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED HIGHS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE VALLEYS AND 5-10 DEGREES FOR THE
VENTURA/LA COAST. WITHOUT THE OFFSHORE BREEZE THERE`S LITTLE CHANCE
OF GETTING HIGHS ABOVE 80 THERE. STILL A SIZABLE JUMP FROM
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT.

***FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST***

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EWD ON TUE AS A
BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION...THEY WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH. IN ADDITION...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL START OUT
WEAKLY OFFSHORE TUE MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO JUMP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST
AREAS. DECENT ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
SEA BREEZES WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON TUE TO BE DOWN JUST
SLIGHTLY IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH A BIT OF WARMING
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT/TUE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG ON
THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST.

A BROAD NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TUE NIGHT AND WED. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG N-S SFC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BRING SOME GUSTY NW
TO N WINDS TO THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA
COUNTY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MOST COASTAL AREAS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON WED...
ESPECIALLY W OF THE MTNS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. ALL AGREE THAT A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW IN
THE ERN PAC WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THU...THEN THEY DIFFER
THEREAFTER. THE GEM AND THE GFS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE EC BRINGS IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRI...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE...BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN SHOWN BY THE EC WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE FRI INTO SAT IF ANY MOISTURE BECOMES
AVAILABLE. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THU THROUGH SAT...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW WARMING ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS
IN THE WAY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1800Z.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESTRICT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LA COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...IN SPITE OF SOME DOUBT ABOUT
WHETHER MARINE CLOUDS MIGHT REACH KLAX OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z FORECAST. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS SNEAKING INTO THE AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS SNEAKING INTO THE AIRFIELD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KMTR 141809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH SOME MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE VALLEYS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND TO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWED FOR LOW STRATUS TO PUSH WELL INLAND THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE REGION WIDE BY LATE
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:29 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT BECOME DAMPENED AND SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD BY A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND REMAIN
LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A 500 MB TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
THOUGH THE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IN A
DISJOINTED FASHION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A CUTOFF DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEFT ANY RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...ALTHOUGH NOTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION CARVES OUT
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
REGION...BUT EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...BEST RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
TROUGH AND HOW IT EVOLVES...NEITHER SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...THE SURFACE FEATURES BEGIN
TODAY WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST AND TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH WEST
OF 130W AND IT WILL BUILD EAST...PRODUCING A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SOME CLOUDS BY THE LATE WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME BUT OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A QUIET WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 141809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH SOME MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE VALLEYS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND TO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWED FOR LOW STRATUS TO PUSH WELL INLAND THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE REGION WIDE BY LATE
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:29 AM PDT MONDAY...THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT BECOME DAMPENED AND SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD BY A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND REMAIN
LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A 500 MB TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
THOUGH THE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IN A
DISJOINTED FASHION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A CUTOFF DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEFT ANY RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...ALTHOUGH NOTING THE ECMWF SOLUTION CARVES OUT
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
REGION...BUT EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...BEST RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
TROUGH AND HOW IT EVOLVES...NEITHER SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...THE SURFACE FEATURES BEGIN
TODAY WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST AND TODAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT FEW. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH WEST
OF 130W AND IT WILL BUILD EAST...PRODUCING A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. SOME CLOUDS BY THE LATE WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME BUT OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A QUIET WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT MONDAY...STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
BY 19Z. WINDS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR -- TYPICAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT MOSTLY AFTER 08Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 03Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WITH WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS CLEARING BY 19Z. VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 141648
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
948 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with well above normal high temperatures continuing
through Thursday with a slight chance of showers over the northern
mountains on Friday into the weekend. Breezy northerly winds possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Short Term Discussion...
No updates to the forecast this morning. High pressure ridge
remains overhead today as we continue a dry pattern with above
normal temperatures. We are currently running about 2-7 degrees
warmer for most places across interior NorCal. Impacts to NorCal
will be minimal this week as we remain fairly dry with warm temps.
Main thing to consider for this week are the breezy to locally
gusty winds expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds will be
enhanced in the Sacramento Valley into the Northern San Joaquin
Valley, especially along the I-5 corridor and westward. Gusts up
to around 30-35 mph are possible for these regions.  JBB

.Previous Discussion...The highly amplified West Coast ridge will
weaken as an Eastern Pacific trof and associated cold front
approach later today and Tue. The southern portion of this system
currently about 300-600 miles off the coast will approach our CWA
today and move through tonight into Tue morning. Some cirrus is
expected over the area tonite...however little impact is expected
on the viewing of the Lunar eclipse... Blood Moon because of the
coppery red color according to NASA. The erosion of the West Coast
ridge today is expected to bring just slight cooling today mainly
from the effects of increasing onshore flow as the front will not
move through the area until tonite with a band of high clouds.
Thus...a little more cooling is expected in our CWA on Tue behind
the front...but still max temps will run about 5-10 degrees above
normal most locations...instead of some 8-15 degrees today.

Much of the energy from the aforementioned trof will pass well to
the North and East of our CWA with some reinforcing energy within
the NW flow from the rebuilding Ern Pac ridge in the wake of the
short wave moving through the CWA. Little change in high temps is
expected as the CAA will be offset by downslope warming from the
northerly winds. It is these gusty...breezy northerly winds that are
expected to give the CWA a minor impact Tue nite and into Wed as
high pressure strengthens over Oregon. Currently...we are looking at
gusts roughly in the 30 to 35 mph range mainly on the West side
of the Sacramento Valley per the 925 mbs wind forecasts.

The ridge axis will progress inland on Thu...decreasing the northerly
gradients and turning them modestly northwesterly. This will promote warming
with maxes some 10-15 degrees above normal. But...lo and
behold...another progressive trof will bring a change in the wx
again on Fri discussed below.    JHM

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

A compact and quick-moving shortwave trough will slide into the
West Coast Thursday night. Although the best dynamics will be
north of our area, models have trended a little deeper with this
trough in recent runs. The mountains surrounding the Northern Sac
Valley may see a few rain showers.

Our forecast becomes less certain from Friday onward. The GFS has
a deeper trough offshore by next weekend which it slowly pushes
towards our area, while the ECMWF is much warmer with a
positively-tiled ridge edging into California. Either way, we`re
not looking at any significant chance of rain or impactful
weather for the foreseeable future. -DVC

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions for interior NorCal next 24 hours with light winds
generally less than 10 kts. -DVC

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








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