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000
FXUS66 KLOX 021635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAKED A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE NAM EXPECTED YESTERDAY AT
JUST UNDER 5 MB. MAIN ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT THERE JUST ISN`T ANY
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DRIVING THE WINDS AND BECAUSE OF THIS ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAILING TO MATERIALIZE. WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WHILE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SPOTS WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 40 OR MAYBE EVEN BRIEFLY 45. SO THE ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED, BUT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN THE
WEAKER WINDS POSE A FIRE THREAT GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITIES, HOT TEMPS,
AND DRY FUELS.

SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AND GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH BY SATURDAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WE`RE STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
DROPPED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW YET SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND
WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 021635
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PEAKED A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE NAM EXPECTED YESTERDAY AT
JUST UNDER 5 MB. MAIN ISSUE THOUGH IS THAT THERE JUST ISN`T ANY
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DRIVING THE WINDS AND BECAUSE OF THIS ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAILING TO MATERIALIZE. WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WHILE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SPOTS WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 40 OR MAYBE EVEN BRIEFLY 45. SO THE ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED, BUT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN THE
WEAKER WINDS POSE A FIRE THREAT GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITIES, HOT TEMPS,
AND DRY FUELS.

SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY AND GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH BY SATURDAY. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WE`RE STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
DROPPED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW YET SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND
WEAK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 021629
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather expected through next week under prominent
high pressure ridge over the west coast. A slow warming trend
through the weekend then slightly cooler going in to next week.
Breezy north winds over ridges and northern Sacramento valley
this morning decreasing this afternoon.

&&

.Discussion...
Much lighter winds today as pressure gradient has relaxed. A
clear and warm day today with high temperatures about 5 degrees
above normal. Current forecast is on track and will not make any
updates.

.Previous Discussion...
Upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to amplify and move inland today. This will bring fair
skies and several degrees of warming most areas. Surface gradient
from MFR to SAC 7.8 mb this hour and this is translating to breezy
north winds over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains. These winds should subside this afternoon with surface
gradients forecast to relax especially after 18z. The upper ridge
axis is forecast to remain near the coast Friday with the ridge
amplifying a bit more over the weekend. This will result in more
warming Friday and Saturday with daytime highs going into the
weekend reaching around 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will likely come in just a little above normal under mainly fair
skies. Light northerly surface winds should keep conditions dry
with little threat of any significant overnight valley fog. The
dry conditions under the light northerly winds and subsidence
under the ridge will make for relatively low humidity. Daytime
humidity in the teens will be common with only poor to moderate
recovery overnight. Temperatures level off on Sunday with flat
surface gradients over California assuring mainly light winds.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Upper ridge over the west coast weakens a bit early next week as
weather systems pass to the north. This will bring a slight
cooling trend on Monday through Thursday. A weak Pacific low
pressure system approaching the coast on Tuesday then moving
inland into SOCAL around the middle of next week will aid in the
slow cooling trend. This very weak low is not likely to have major
impacts on NORCAL weather next week other than the slight cooling
trend. By the end of next week, daytime highs are forecast to come
in just a bit above season normals. Weak surface high pressure
over the great basin will maintain a weak offshore flow over the
region for much of the time so significant nighttime valley fog
remains unlikely through the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...

Ridge of high pressure builds over interior Northern California
today bringing VFR conditions along with North to east winds.
North to East wind gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the
foothills and mountains.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 021629
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather expected through next week under prominent
high pressure ridge over the west coast. A slow warming trend
through the weekend then slightly cooler going in to next week.
Breezy north winds over ridges and northern Sacramento valley
this morning decreasing this afternoon.

&&

.Discussion...
Much lighter winds today as pressure gradient has relaxed. A
clear and warm day today with high temperatures about 5 degrees
above normal. Current forecast is on track and will not make any
updates.

.Previous Discussion...
Upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to amplify and move inland today. This will bring fair
skies and several degrees of warming most areas. Surface gradient
from MFR to SAC 7.8 mb this hour and this is translating to breezy
north winds over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains. These winds should subside this afternoon with surface
gradients forecast to relax especially after 18z. The upper ridge
axis is forecast to remain near the coast Friday with the ridge
amplifying a bit more over the weekend. This will result in more
warming Friday and Saturday with daytime highs going into the
weekend reaching around 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will likely come in just a little above normal under mainly fair
skies. Light northerly surface winds should keep conditions dry
with little threat of any significant overnight valley fog. The
dry conditions under the light northerly winds and subsidence
under the ridge will make for relatively low humidity. Daytime
humidity in the teens will be common with only poor to moderate
recovery overnight. Temperatures level off on Sunday with flat
surface gradients over California assuring mainly light winds.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Upper ridge over the west coast weakens a bit early next week as
weather systems pass to the north. This will bring a slight
cooling trend on Monday through Thursday. A weak Pacific low
pressure system approaching the coast on Tuesday then moving
inland into SOCAL around the middle of next week will aid in the
slow cooling trend. This very weak low is not likely to have major
impacts on NORCAL weather next week other than the slight cooling
trend. By the end of next week, daytime highs are forecast to come
in just a bit above season normals. Weak surface high pressure
over the great basin will maintain a weak offshore flow over the
region for much of the time so significant nighttime valley fog
remains unlikely through the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...

Ridge of high pressure builds over interior Northern California
today bringing VFR conditions along with North to east winds.
North to East wind gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the
foothills and mountains.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 021615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S AND 90S...WITH WARMEST INLAND AREAS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED ON
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS AND WARMER MAX
TEMPS AS WELL. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM OR
HOT INLAND...THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A THIRD
DAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AN INCREASED SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RELIEF TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

BY SUNDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S AND 90S...WITH WARMEST INLAND AREAS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED ON
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS AND WARMER MAX
TEMPS AS WELL. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM OR
HOT INLAND...THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A THIRD
DAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AN INCREASED SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RELIEF TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

BY SUNDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S AND 90S...WITH WARMEST INLAND AREAS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED ON
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS AND WARMER MAX
TEMPS AS WELL. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM OR
HOT INLAND...THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A THIRD
DAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AN INCREASED SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RELIEF TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

BY SUNDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 021615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...IT WAS A COOL MORNING
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S AND 90S...WITH WARMEST INLAND AREAS REACHING AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED ON
FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUM TEMPS AND WARMER MAX
TEMPS AS WELL. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM OR
HOT INLAND...THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A THIRD
DAY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. AN INCREASED SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RELIEF TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

BY SUNDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 021552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST HAS STARTED TO SHIFT INTO OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST NIGHT WERE ON AVERAGE ONE TO TWO DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
TODAY...HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER DESERT
SPOTS BREAKING 90 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HAVE ADJUSTED
THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS UP AROUND A DEGREE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AREAS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WARMER TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT AT KPHX-KIWA-KSDL...THOUGH A BRIEF GUST TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE
AT KPHX BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT KIPL-KBLH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND AT KBLH WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH 18Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH








000
FXUS65 KPSR 021552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST HAS STARTED TO SHIFT INTO OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LAST NIGHT WERE ON AVERAGE ONE TO TWO DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
TODAY...HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER DESERT
SPOTS BREAKING 90 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HAVE ADJUSTED
THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS UP AROUND A DEGREE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AREAS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WARMER TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT AT KPHX-KIWA-KSDL...THOUGH A BRIEF GUST TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE
AT KPHX BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT KIPL-KBLH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND AT KBLH WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH 18Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 021546
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
846 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED AROUND MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SIERRA DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS, WITH THE COLDEST READING WE RECEIVED SO FAR AT 19 DEGREES
IN BRIDGEPORT CA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING VALLEYS. NO CHANGES TO THE DRY AND
WARM FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO NEAR FREEZING
THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING FOR AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT WHICH ALERTS USERS OF
FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN
AUTUMN.

LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, FEEL THAT THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE LOWS MAY
STAY IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO PLEASE TAKE CARE TO COVER YOUR PLANTS. FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER, BUT THIS STILL TRANSLATES TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY STILL NEED TO BE
COVERED.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CA/NV AND THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE CA COAST SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, REPLACED
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NV, POSSIBLY WITH WESTERLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LACKS A MOISTURE SOURCE AND AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE CHANGES, A FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IF AN INCREASE IN WIND OFFSETS A COOLER
AIR MASS BY REMOVING OR WEAKENING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER,
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST LEAVING THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW. AS SUCH, A
COOLING TREND FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE INCLUDING KRNO AND KCXP. FOR MOST
OTHER TERMINALS CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCLUDING AT KTRK AND KTVL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A 15 % CHANCE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 021546
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
846 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED AROUND MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SIERRA DIPPED INTO THE UPPER
TEENS, WITH THE COLDEST READING WE RECEIVED SO FAR AT 19 DEGREES
IN BRIDGEPORT CA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING VALLEYS. NO CHANGES TO THE DRY AND
WARM FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO NEAR FREEZING
THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING FOR AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT WHICH ALERTS USERS OF
FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN
AUTUMN.

LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, FEEL THAT THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE LOWS MAY
STAY IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO PLEASE TAKE CARE TO COVER YOUR PLANTS. FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER, BUT THIS STILL TRANSLATES TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY STILL NEED TO BE
COVERED.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CA/NV AND THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE CA COAST SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, REPLACED
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NV, POSSIBLY WITH WESTERLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LACKS A MOISTURE SOURCE AND AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE CHANGES, A FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IF AN INCREASE IN WIND OFFSETS A COOLER
AIR MASS BY REMOVING OR WEAKENING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER,
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST LEAVING THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW. AS SUCH, A
COOLING TREND FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE INCLUDING KRNO AND KCXP. FOR MOST
OTHER TERMINALS CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCLUDING AT KTRK AND KTVL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A 15 % CHANCE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 021524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
825 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
ON SATURDAY.  WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING TODAY.  A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE WORK
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW AND COASTAL STRATUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OCCURRING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  IN FACT...THE
12Z KNXK SOUNDING SHOWS NEARLY 12 DEGREES OF WARMING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB 2 TO 4 DEGREES
EACH DAY.  THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY/S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY.  ALTHOUGH
TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST JUMP IN TEMPERATURES...THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME.  SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE HOT...JUST NOT QUITE AS HOT AS SATURDAY.  NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK ON
TRACK.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS.  AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT GRADIENT UP TO
-4.6 MBS.  THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS OF FREMONT CANYON AND HIGHLAND
SPRINGS ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO PEAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING DURING THE DAY.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY ONSHORE TO CAMPO...BUT WEAKLY
OFFSHORE TO IMPERIAL.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME EAST
WINDS BELOW 700 MBS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK AT 20 KTS OR
LESS.  FOR THIS REASON...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
BACK COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE
SILL HILL...BOULDER CREEK...LYONS PEAK...AND VOLCAN MOUNTAIN SEEING
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS.  IN THESE AREAS...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
ALSO STARTING TO LOWER.  HOWEVER...IN THE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS...SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING...AS THE RADIATIVE
GROUND FOG SLOWLY CLEARS.  DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TODAY AND ON FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO REACH THE VALLEY AND THE
COAST.  WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NORMAL RANGES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
021445Z...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SURFACE BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND IN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 19Z THIS MORNING. SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND ALIGNED PASSES AND CANYONS...LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS. LLWS AND UP/DOWN
DRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
745 AM...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT
AREA BEACHES LATE TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH...ARE BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE LOCATIONS
REPORTING STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WITH A PEAK OF 53 MPH ON SILL HILL AT ABOUT 2 AM. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
HUMIDITIES BEGAN FALLING LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND TODAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
AREAS. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY BE MET IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 021524
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
825 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
ON SATURDAY.  WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING TODAY.  A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE WORK
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW AND COASTAL STRATUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OCCURRING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  IN FACT...THE
12Z KNXK SOUNDING SHOWS NEARLY 12 DEGREES OF WARMING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB 2 TO 4 DEGREES
EACH DAY.  THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY/S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY.  ALTHOUGH
TODAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST JUMP IN TEMPERATURES...THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME.  SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE HOT...JUST NOT QUITE AS HOT AS SATURDAY.  NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK ON
TRACK.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS.  AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE SAN DIEGO TO DAGGETT GRADIENT UP TO
-4.6 MBS.  THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS OF FREMONT CANYON AND HIGHLAND
SPRINGS ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO PEAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING DURING THE DAY.  FURTHER SOUTH OVER SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY ONSHORE TO CAMPO...BUT WEAKLY
OFFSHORE TO IMPERIAL.  THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME EAST
WINDS BELOW 700 MBS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK AT 20 KTS OR
LESS.  FOR THIS REASON...SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
BACK COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE
SILL HILL...BOULDER CREEK...LYONS PEAK...AND VOLCAN MOUNTAIN SEEING
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS.  IN THESE AREAS...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
ALSO STARTING TO LOWER.  HOWEVER...IN THE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS...SOMEWHAT HAZY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING...AS THE RADIATIVE
GROUND FOG SLOWLY CLEARS.  DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TODAY AND ON FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO REACH THE VALLEY AND THE
COAST.  WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR
THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NORMAL RANGES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
021445Z...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SURFACE BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND IN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 19Z THIS MORNING. SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND ALIGNED PASSES AND CANYONS...LOCALLY
AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS. LLWS AND UP/DOWN
DRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
730 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
745 AM...A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT
AREA BEACHES LATE TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
DETAILS SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH...ARE BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE LOCATIONS
REPORTING STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS WITH A PEAK OF 53 MPH ON SILL HILL AT ABOUT 2 AM. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
HUMIDITIES BEGAN FALLING LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND TODAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
AREAS. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY BE MET IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE...PG







000
FXUS66 KMTR 021133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
433 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 021130 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN LA COUNTY COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA THIS MORNING. OXNARD AND SANTA BARBARA AIRPORTS WERE
REPORTING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND REACH THE VENTURA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GET MIXED OUT WHEN THE WINDS SURFACE ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
IN AND AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST WIND GUST REPORTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM-WRF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAG HAS
INCREASED THE OFFSHORE TREND BY A FEW MB. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GRADIENT
WAS -3.1 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER -5 MB BY 5 AM. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BARELY MAKE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LA BASIN
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND A
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH FURTHER
WARMING FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND L.A.
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
100-106 DEGREES FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE 90S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
INCLUDING SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA MARIA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL AS WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BEACH. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS LAST EVENING VALID
STARTING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST RELATIVELY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT IS MAINLY A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DRIVEN WIND. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND COASTAL AREAS TO
35 MPH. WILL BE UPDATING WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT TO SPECIFY SPEEDS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/900 PM.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN
INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 6
HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL WITH HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERY
LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 021130 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN LA COUNTY COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA THIS MORNING. OXNARD AND SANTA BARBARA AIRPORTS WERE
REPORTING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND REACH THE VENTURA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GET MIXED OUT WHEN THE WINDS SURFACE ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
IN AND AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST WIND GUST REPORTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM-WRF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAG HAS
INCREASED THE OFFSHORE TREND BY A FEW MB. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GRADIENT
WAS -3.1 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER -5 MB BY 5 AM. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BARELY MAKE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LA BASIN
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND A
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH FURTHER
WARMING FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND L.A.
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
100-106 DEGREES FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE 90S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
INCLUDING SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA MARIA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL AS WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BEACH. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS LAST EVENING VALID
STARTING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST RELATIVELY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT IS MAINLY A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DRIVEN WIND. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND COASTAL AREAS TO
35 MPH. WILL BE UPDATING WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT TO SPECIFY SPEEDS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/900 PM.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN
INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 6
HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL WITH HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERY
LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 021130 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN LA COUNTY COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA THIS MORNING. OXNARD AND SANTA BARBARA AIRPORTS WERE
REPORTING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND REACH THE VENTURA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GET MIXED OUT WHEN THE WINDS SURFACE ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
IN AND AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST WIND GUST REPORTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM-WRF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAG HAS
INCREASED THE OFFSHORE TREND BY A FEW MB. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GRADIENT
WAS -3.1 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER -5 MB BY 5 AM. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BARELY MAKE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LA BASIN
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND A
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH FURTHER
WARMING FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND L.A.
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
100-106 DEGREES FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE 90S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
INCLUDING SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA MARIA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL AS WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BEACH. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS LAST EVENING VALID
STARTING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST RELATIVELY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT IS MAINLY A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DRIVEN WIND. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND COASTAL AREAS TO
35 MPH. WILL BE UPDATING WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT TO SPECIFY SPEEDS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/900 PM.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN
INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 6
HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL WITH HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERY
LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 021130 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
425 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN LA COUNTY COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA THIS MORNING. OXNARD AND SANTA BARBARA AIRPORTS WERE
REPORTING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND REACH THE VENTURA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GET MIXED OUT WHEN THE WINDS SURFACE ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
IN AND AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST WIND GUST REPORTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM-WRF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAG HAS
INCREASED THE OFFSHORE TREND BY A FEW MB. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GRADIENT
WAS -3.1 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER -5 MB BY 5 AM. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BARELY MAKE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LA BASIN
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND A
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH FURTHER
WARMING FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND L.A.
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
100-106 DEGREES FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE 90S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
INCLUDING SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA MARIA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL AS WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BEACH. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS LAST EVENING VALID
STARTING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST RELATIVELY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT IS MAINLY A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DRIVEN WIND. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND COASTAL AREAS TO
35 MPH. WILL BE UPDATING WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT TO SPECIFY SPEEDS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1125Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1030Z WAS 400 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ROGUE
PATCH OF STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST OF VENTURA
COUNTY...BRINGING VLIFR CONDS TO KOXR...BUT EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
SURFACES ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OTHER
TAF SITES VFR THRU THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE ISSUE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (22Z) AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/900 PM.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN
INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 6
HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL WITH HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERY
LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS65 KPSR 021120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT AT KPHX-KIWA-KSDL...THOUGH A BRIEF GUST TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT
KPHX BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT KIPL-KBLH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND AT KBLH WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH 18Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 021120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES MAY OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT AT KPHX-KIWA-KSDL...THOUGH A BRIEF GUST TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT
KPHX BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT KIPL-KBLH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE CO
RIVER VALLEY AND AT KBLH WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20-25 KT IS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THROUGH 18Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH





000
FXUS66 KSGX 021109
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
409 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY...WITH HOT WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY WITH READINGS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL START WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME STRATUS AGAIN TO
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TODAY WILL MARK THE START TO AN ABRUPT HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOME BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE UPPER HIGH REACHING ABOUT 592 DM WHICH IS QUITE
STRONG AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL BRING THE SMALLER
SCALE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EFFECT TO THE COASTAL AND INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK CLOSER TO THE
COAST FRIDAY...WITH THE INLAND PEAK OCCURRING SATURDAY UP TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS RAMBLING ALONG THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD FREE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AND A
REALLY WELCOME COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OR TWO OF
LOW CLOUDS BASED AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL ALONG THE COAST IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURFACE BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND IN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 19Z. LOCAL SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS
45 KT. LLWS AND UP/DOWN DRAFTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA
BEACHES LATE TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
SURF AND SOME STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR DETAILS
SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PICK UP TODAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. COUPLED
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PASSES AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TERRAIN DRIVEN STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ABOVE OUR GENERALIZED TEXT FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL BRING LIMITED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS. RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RED FLAG HEADLINES
MAY BE CONSIDERED DURING THIS MORNINGS LAND MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE
CALLS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








000
FXUS66 KSGX 021109
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
409 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS TODAY...WITH HOT WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY WITH READINGS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL START WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME STRATUS AGAIN TO
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

TODAY WILL MARK THE START TO AN ABRUPT HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOME BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE UPPER HIGH REACHING ABOUT 592 DM WHICH IS QUITE
STRONG AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL BRING THE SMALLER
SCALE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EFFECT TO THE COASTAL AND INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK CLOSER TO THE
COAST FRIDAY...WITH THE INLAND PEAK OCCURRING SATURDAY UP TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS RAMBLING ALONG THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD FREE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL BREAKING DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AND A
REALLY WELCOME COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
020930Z...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OR TWO OF
LOW CLOUDS BASED AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL ALONG THE COAST IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURFACE BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND IN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH 19Z. LOCAL SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS
45 KT. LLWS AND UP/DOWN DRAFTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL ARRIVE AT AREA
BEACHES LATE TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
SURF AND SOME STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR DETAILS
SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PICK UP TODAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. COUPLED
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PASSES AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TERRAIN DRIVEN STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ABOVE OUR GENERALIZED TEXT FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL BRING LIMITED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS. RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RED FLAG HEADLINES
MAY BE CONSIDERED DURING THIS MORNINGS LAND MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE
CALLS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 021059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MANY RIDGES
ACTUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT. THIS WARMING IS ALSO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH ARE ALLOWING COLD AIR TO POOL. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUS MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
TRINITY COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED
THROUGH 9 AM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROSTY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITHIN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE DECREASED VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO MORE CLOSELY
MATCH MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND CONSIDERING THE MOS GUIDANCE
VERIFIED WELL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER
MAY MIX OUT LETTING WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THIS
LOW...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW COASTAL CLOUDS TO REFORM AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THIS WEAK LOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND NO
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 7-11 FT. THE 0520Z
ASCAT PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 470 SHOWED WINDS OF 20-
25 KT. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE THAT HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASING WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS. ALLOWED THE SE.W`S TO EXPIRE. THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 475
SHOULD EXPIRE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 470 THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO REMNANT WIND GUSTS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 10 FT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MANY RIDGES
ACTUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT. THIS WARMING IS ALSO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH ARE ALLOWING COLD AIR TO POOL. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUS MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
TRINITY COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED
THROUGH 9 AM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROSTY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITHIN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE DECREASED VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO MORE CLOSELY
MATCH MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND CONSIDERING THE MOS GUIDANCE
VERIFIED WELL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER
MAY MIX OUT LETTING WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THIS
LOW...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW COASTAL CLOUDS TO REFORM AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THIS WEAK LOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND NO
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 7-11 FT. THE 0520Z
ASCAT PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 470 SHOWED WINDS OF 20-
25 KT. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE THAT HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASING WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS. ALLOWED THE SE.W`S TO EXPIRE. THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 475
SHOULD EXPIRE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 470 THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO REMNANT WIND GUSTS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 10 FT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MANY RIDGES
ACTUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT. THIS WARMING IS ALSO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH ARE ALLOWING COLD AIR TO POOL. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUS MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
TRINITY COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED
THROUGH 9 AM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROSTY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITHIN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE DECREASED VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO MORE CLOSELY
MATCH MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND CONSIDERING THE MOS GUIDANCE
VERIFIED WELL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER
MAY MIX OUT LETTING WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THIS
LOW...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW COASTAL CLOUDS TO REFORM AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THIS WEAK LOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND NO
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 7-11 FT. THE 0520Z
ASCAT PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 470 SHOWED WINDS OF 20-
25 KT. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE THAT HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASING WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS. ALLOWED THE SE.W`S TO EXPIRE. THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 475
SHOULD EXPIRE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 470 THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO REMNANT WIND GUSTS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 10 FT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 021059
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MANY RIDGES
ACTUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT. THIS WARMING IS ALSO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH ARE ALLOWING COLD AIR TO POOL. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUS MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
TRINITY COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED
THROUGH 9 AM. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROSTY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITHIN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. HAVE DECREASED VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO MORE CLOSELY
MATCH MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND CONSIDERING THE MOS GUIDANCE
VERIFIED WELL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER
MAY MIX OUT LETTING WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES REACH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
FROM THE WEST. LITTLE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THIS
LOW...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE LOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW COASTAL CLOUDS TO REFORM AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

BEHIND THIS WEAK LOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND NO
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 7-11 FT. THE 0520Z
ASCAT PASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 470 SHOWED WINDS OF 20-
25 KT. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE THAT HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASING WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS. ALLOWED THE SE.W`S TO EXPIRE. THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 475
SHOULD EXPIRE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SC.Y FOR ZONE 470 THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO REMNANT WIND GUSTS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ZONE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 10 FT.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA


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000
FXUS66 KHNX 021048
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

SYNOPSIS... A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA BEHIND A DEEP
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR OUR AREA UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE
FLOW...FURTHERING THE DRY CONDITIONS AND CREATING CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IN THE MOUNTAINS OF KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTIES.
CURRENT RH VALUES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 15-25 PERCENT AND WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME EXTENDED PERIODS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH
READINGS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ALERTING TO THESE CRITICAL VALUES REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY...THOUGH MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA TO SHOW A COOLING TREND
BY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSING
TROUGH...THE FORECAST REMAINS FREE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891
KFAT 10-03      101:1980     62:1916     69:2012     41:1908
KFAT 10-04      102:1980     64:1916     69:1917     42:1957

KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
KBFL 10-03      103:1933     64:1916     72:2012     34:1908
KBFL 10-04      104:1933     67:2009     71:1970     33:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ295-297.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 021048
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

SYNOPSIS... A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY...WITH THIS
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA BEHIND A DEEP
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR OUR AREA UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED OFFSHORE
FLOW...FURTHERING THE DRY CONDITIONS AND CREATING CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IN THE MOUNTAINS OF KERN AND SOUTHERN TULARE COUNTIES.
CURRENT RH VALUES THERE ARE RUNNING AROUND 15-25 PERCENT AND WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME EXTENDED PERIODS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH
READINGS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ALERTING TO THESE CRITICAL VALUES REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY...THOUGH MODELS BEGIN TO
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA TO SHOW A COOLING TREND
BY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE PASSING
TROUGH...THE FORECAST REMAINS FREE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891
KFAT 10-03      101:1980     62:1916     69:2012     41:1908
KFAT 10-04      102:1980     64:1916     69:1917     42:1957

KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
KBFL 10-03      103:1933     64:1916     72:2012     34:1908
KBFL 10-04      104:1933     67:2009     71:1970     33:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ295-297.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KSTO 021015
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
315 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather expected through next week under prominent
high pressure ridge over the west coast. A slow warming trend
through the weekend then slightly cooler going in to next week.
Breezy north winds over ridges and northern Sacramento valley
this morning decreasing this afternoon.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to amplify and move inland today. This will bring fair
skies and several degrees of warming most areas. Surface gradient
from MFR to SAC 7.8 mb this hour and this is translating to breezy
north winds over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains. These winds should subside this afternoon with surface
gradients forecast to relax especially after 18z. The upper ridge
axis is forecast to remain near the coast Friday with the ridge
amplifying a bit more over the weekend. This will result in more
warming Friday and Saturday with daytime highs going into the
weekend reaching around 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will likely come in just a little above normal under mainly fair
skies. Light northerly surface winds should keep conditions dry
with little threat of any significant overnight valley fog. The
dry conditions under the light northerly winds and subsidence
under the ridge will make for relatively low humidity. Daytime
humidity in the teens will be common with only poor to moderate
recovery overnight. Temperatures level off on Sunday with flat
surface gradients over California assuring mainly light winds.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Upper ridge over the west coast weakens a bit early next week as
weather systems pass to the north. This will bring a slight
cooling trend on Monday through Thursday. A weak Pacific low
pressure system approaching the coast on Tuesday then moving
inland into SOCAL around the middle of next week will aid in the
slow cooling trend. This very weak low is not likely to have major
impacts on NORCAL weather next week other than the slight cooling
trend. By the end of next week, daytime highs are forecast to come
in just a bit above season normals. Weak surface high pressure
over the great basin will maintain a weak offshore flow over the
region for much of the time so significant nighttime valley fog
remains unlikely through the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...

Ridge of high pressure builds over interior Northern California
today bringing VFR conditions along with North to east winds.
North to East wind gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the
foothills and mountains.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 021015
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
315 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warm weather expected through next week under prominent
high pressure ridge over the west coast. A slow warming trend
through the weekend then slightly cooler going in to next week.
Breezy north winds over ridges and northern Sacramento valley
this morning decreasing this afternoon.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper level high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to amplify and move inland today. This will bring fair
skies and several degrees of warming most areas. Surface gradient
from MFR to SAC 7.8 mb this hour and this is translating to breezy
north winds over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding
mountains. These winds should subside this afternoon with surface
gradients forecast to relax especially after 18z. The upper ridge
axis is forecast to remain near the coast Friday with the ridge
amplifying a bit more over the weekend. This will result in more
warming Friday and Saturday with daytime highs going into the
weekend reaching around 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will likely come in just a little above normal under mainly fair
skies. Light northerly surface winds should keep conditions dry
with little threat of any significant overnight valley fog. The
dry conditions under the light northerly winds and subsidence
under the ridge will make for relatively low humidity. Daytime
humidity in the teens will be common with only poor to moderate
recovery overnight. Temperatures level off on Sunday with flat
surface gradients over California assuring mainly light winds.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Upper ridge over the west coast weakens a bit early next week as
weather systems pass to the north. This will bring a slight
cooling trend on Monday through Thursday. A weak Pacific low
pressure system approaching the coast on Tuesday then moving
inland into SOCAL around the middle of next week will aid in the
slow cooling trend. This very weak low is not likely to have major
impacts on NORCAL weather next week other than the slight cooling
trend. By the end of next week, daytime highs are forecast to come
in just a bit above season normals. Weak surface high pressure
over the great basin will maintain a weak offshore flow over the
region for much of the time so significant nighttime valley fog
remains unlikely through the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...

Ridge of high pressure builds over interior Northern California
today bringing VFR conditions along with North to east winds.
North to East wind gusts up to 30 kts this morning in the
foothills and mountains.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 021001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
301 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: GASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 021001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
301 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT, A SQUASHED
MARINE LAYER, PLUS AN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS EXPECTED, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
CONTINUED ALL NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING IN THE COLUMN. IN FACT, SOME
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE RUNNING 20% LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING AND A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 30S.

SO, THE QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW IS NOT
WILL IT BE WARM AND SUNNY BOTH DAYS, BUT RATHER JUST HOW WARM WILL
IT GET. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN AND IT CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A VERY HOT EVENT FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAN
JOSE NOW GETTING INTO THE LOWER 100S ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S MAKE IT DOWN TO MANY COASTAL SPOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A
LESS INTENSE HEAT EVENT -- IN MOST SPOTS THEY HAVE HIGHS 6 TO 12
DEGREES LESS THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF NUMBERS WERE A BIT OF A
SURPRISE IN LIGHT OF THE 850 MB TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AROUND A DEGREE COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. WHAT IT
MAY BE WEIGHING IN THE EQUATION IS YESTERDAY TURNED OUT TO BE
HOTTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE PROJECTING WHICH WOULD COUNTER
THE SLIGHT DROP IN 850 VALUES. IN THE PAST THE ECMWF HAS DONE A GOOD JOB
WITH HEAT EVENTS AND WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE THAN A 5 MB
POSITIVE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 1000 MB TEMPS OVER OUR WATERS
(THUS, STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
COAST) FEEL THAT THE VERY WARM VALUES WE ARE FORECASTING ARE
JUSTIFIED. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO SEE HOW THE FIRST HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK GO TO GET A BETTER IDEA IF THE ECMWF IS OVERPLAYING THIS,
OR IF IT IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR ALL SPOTS.

THE OTHER DIFFICULTY WITH HEAT EVENTS AROUND OUR AREA IS THE RISK
OF SEABREEZE RETURNING SINCE IT COULD QUICKLY DROP TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST IN A VERY QUICK MANNER WHICH LEADS TO FORECAST BUSTS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
SEABREEZE TO KICK WILL BE DOWN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTEREY
BAY WHERE THE FLOW COULD SWITCH BACK TO MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, FOR SPOTS TO THE NORTH (SANTA CRUZ UP PAST POINT REYES),
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER NEUTRAL OR OFFSHORE. IN FACT,
RIGHT NOW 80 DEGREES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN DOWN TO NEAR
THE POINT REYES LIGHTHOUSE!

SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, SOME CAUTION WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN AS THE MODELS ARE
STALLING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND ALSO BRING
WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE HOT READINGS DO VERIFY
TODAY THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR ALMOST ALL INLAND LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW ENOUGH
COOLING AT THE COAST (6-12 DEGREES) LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP THOSE
SPOTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS DIVERTED UP TO ALASKA AND THE BC
COASTLINE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COAST WATERS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(10/2 TO 10/4) ALONG WITH DATE OR DATES IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 KENTFIELD...............100/2012.........99/2012..........99/1987/1933
 SAN RAFAEL..............106/1980........105/1980.........100/1980
 NAPA....................102/1980........103/1917.........100/1987
 SAN FRANCISCO............96/1980.........97/1985.........100/1987
 SFO AIRPORT..............96/1980.........94/1985..........95/1987
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980........100/1985..........92/1987/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........98/1980.........95/1985..........90/1953
 RICHMOND................100/1980.........97/2012..........99/1987
 LIVERMORE...............106/1980........106/1980.........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............95/2012.........97/1985..........94/1987
 SAN JOSE.................96/2012.........97/1985..........96/1987
 GILROY..................107/1980........106/1980.........103/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/2............10/3.............10/4...
 MONTEREY................101/1980.........96/1985..........94/1953
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1980........102/1980.........101/1987
 SALINAS.................100/1980.........97/1985..........98/1987
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........103/1980.........99/1985.........100/1987
 KING CITY...............107/1980........102/1980.........106/1933

&&


.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: GASS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 020941
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
240 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATED A
THIN BAND OF STRATUS FROM THE NORTHERN LA COUNTY COAST TO SANTA
BARBARA THIS MORNING. OXNARD AND SANTA BARBARA AIRPORTS WERE
REPORTING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND REACH THE VENTURA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GET MIXED OUT WHEN THE WINDS SURFACE ACROSS THE LA/VENTURA
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
IN AND AROUND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST WIND GUST REPORTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE NAM-WRF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAX-DAG HAS
INCREASED THE OFFSHORE TREND BY A FEW MB. AT 2 AM PDT...THE GRADIENT
WAS -3.1 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER -5 MB BY 5 AM. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BARELY MAKE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LA BASIN
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT AND A
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY ACROSS COASTAL VALLEYS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WITH FURTHER
WARMING FRIDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA AND L.A.
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN
100-106 DEGREES FOR LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE 90S FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA BARBARA WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY. WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.
INCLUDING SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA MARIA.

AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL AS WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BEACH. WIND
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS LAST EVENING VALID
STARTING THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST RELATIVELY WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT IS MAINLY A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DRIVEN WIND. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND COASTAL AREAS TO
35 MPH. WILL BE UPDATING WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT TO SPECIFY SPEEDS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY HOT INTO
MONDAY...WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD KICK IN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
WILL STILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS.
BETTER COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED TUE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GETS REPLACED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO HELP COOL THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE FLOW TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUE/WED.


&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
GENERALLY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
EXHIBIT A DIURNAL TREND (WEAK OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS65 KREV 020932
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING FOR AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT WHICH ALERTS USERS OF
FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN
AUTUMN.

LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, FEEL THAT THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE LOWS MAY
STAY IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO PLEASE TAKE CARE TO COVER YOUR PLANTS. FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER, BUT THIS STILL TRANSLATES TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY STILL NEED TO BE
COVERED.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CA/NV AND THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE CA COAST SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, REPLACED
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NV, POSSIBLY WITH WESTERLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LACKS A MOISTURE SOURCE AND AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE CHANGES, A FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IF AN INCREASE IN WIND OFFSETS A COOLER
AIR MASS BY REMOVING OR WEAKENING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER,
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST LEAVING THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW. AS SUCH, A
COOLING TREND FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE INCLUDING KRNO AND KCXP. FOR MOST
OTHER TERMINALS CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCLUDING AT KTRK AND KTVL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A 15 % CHANCE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 020932
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING FOR AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT WHICH ALERTS USERS OF
FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN
AUTUMN.

LOOKING AT CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, FEEL THAT THE FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE URBAN CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE LOWS MAY
STAY IN THE MID 30S. THIS IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO PLEASE TAKE CARE TO COVER YOUR PLANTS. FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER, BUT THIS STILL TRANSLATES TO LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY STILL NEED TO BE
COVERED.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST STARTING
FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES
FOR THE WEEKEND IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CA/NV AND THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE CA COAST SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, REPLACED
BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SIERRA
INTO WESTERN NV, POSSIBLY WITH WESTERLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BREEZES. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LACKS A MOISTURE SOURCE AND AT
THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE CHANGES, A FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS IS IF AN INCREASE IN WIND OFFSETS A COOLER
AIR MASS BY REMOVING OR WEAKENING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. HOWEVER,
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST LEAVING THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW. AS SUCH, A
COOLING TREND FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. JCM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10
KTS FOR THE SIERRA FRONT RANGE INCLUDING KRNO AND KCXP. FOR MOST
OTHER TERMINALS CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCLUDING AT KTRK AND KTVL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A 15 % CHANCE OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KTRK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KPSR 020911
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
211 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS...MOST NOTICEABLY AFTER 16Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ON
THE EDGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER
08Z AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 14Z. LOCATIONS WITH CALM SURFACE
WINDS OR WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 09Z-13Z MIGHT
EXPERIENCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN STRENGTH
OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 020911
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
211 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND TOWARDS MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST
PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TREKS TO OUR EAST INTO NM/CO/WY.
LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE WEAK FRONT INTRUSION INTO
NORTHERN AZ AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WIND HEADINGS ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AREAWIDE...WITH ELEVATED BREEZES AND GUSTS DOWN ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER AND OVER SOME OF THE MARICOPA/SOUTHERN GILA HIGH
TERRAIN/GAPS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE 850MB-SFC
LAYER...WITH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS SEEING VERY SLIGHT WARMING AND
POINT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY PROGGED FOR SUBTLE
COOLING. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS A BIT MORE MIXED AND ON THE WARM
SIDE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OBSERVED
COMPARED TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS MAY SEE
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN OUR READINGS...COMING IN AT OR NEAR
NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FROPA/CAA...STRONG
PACIFIC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR WEST...KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEKEND. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND AND PEAK LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN THE
581-583DM RANGE. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK AREAWIDE
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. AVERAGE LAST 100F HIGH TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK APPROACHES AND
BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...KNOCKING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS...MOST NOTICEABLY AFTER 16Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ON
THE EDGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER
08Z AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 14Z. LOCATIONS WITH CALM SURFACE
WINDS OR WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 09Z-13Z MIGHT
EXPERIENCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN STRENGTH
OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH





000
FXUS66 KMTR 020514
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1014 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT...SWEEPING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS
MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAD PLUNGED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT GRADUALLY HIGHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR EXPECTED HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND EVEN LOWER TO MID 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL BE UNIFORMLY IN THE 90S WITH
SEVERAL SPOTS EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL FORECAST ZONES. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT IS THE RELATIVELY LONG OCTOBER NIGHTS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BY
SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CEASE AND
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING IN COASTAL
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT
ON SATURDAY AND SEE ONLY SUBTLE COOLING BY SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MARINE LAYER BECOME
REESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 020514
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1014 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT...SWEEPING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS
MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAD PLUNGED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT GRADUALLY HIGHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR EXPECTED HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND EVEN LOWER TO MID 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL BE UNIFORMLY IN THE 90S WITH
SEVERAL SPOTS EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL FORECAST ZONES. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT IS THE RELATIVELY LONG OCTOBER NIGHTS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BY
SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CEASE AND
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING IN COASTAL
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT
ON SATURDAY AND SEE ONLY SUBTLE COOLING BY SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MARINE LAYER BECOME
REESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:14 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 020444
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES ARE RISING THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE
MOHAVE DESERT TODAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...SOME SPOTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY BUT OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE
MINOR FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OF MORE NOTE WILL BE THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
PREVAILING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STARTING TONIGHT.
THE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. UPWARD TREND OF TEMPS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 230 PM...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS...MOST NOTICEABLY AFTER 16Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ON
THE EDGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER
08Z AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 14Z. LOCATIONS WITH CALM SURFACE
WINDS OR WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 09Z-13Z MIGHT
EXPERIENCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN STRENGTH
OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH







000
FXUS65 KPSR 020444
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW COOLING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES ARE RISING THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE
MOHAVE DESERT TODAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...SOME SPOTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY BUT OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE
MINOR FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OF MORE NOTE WILL BE THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
PREVAILING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...MAINLY LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STARTING TONIGHT.
THE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. UPWARD TREND OF TEMPS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 230 PM...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS...MOST NOTICEABLY AFTER 16Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ON
THE EDGES OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER
08Z AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 14Z. LOCATIONS WITH CALM SURFACE
WINDS OR WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 09Z-13Z MIGHT
EXPERIENCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN STRENGTH
OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS TO REFLECT LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS66 KSGX 020440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME
STRATUS AGAIN TO THE COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS...THOUGH HOT
WEATHER WILL STILL OCCUR IN SOME INLAND AREAS THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.
CONTINUED COOLING WILL OCCUR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE PATCHES OF STRATUS
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST HAVING MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY
MID-EVENING. 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MOSTLY BE HIGH OVERNIGHT ONLY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND OFF THE COAST...SO STRATUS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE
STRENGTH THURSDAY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GRADIENTS
WILL BE UP TO 10 MB FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO THE SO-CAL COAST THU
WITH RATHER LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. 00Z FWIS
SHOWS GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 45 MPH RANGE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE EAST VERSUS
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO HIGHEST WINDS COULD BE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY COVERS THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL.
GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE WIND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE HIGHER WINDS...LIKE SILL
HILL...WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY THERE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BUILDING HIGH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AROUND 20-21 C THU AND
22-23 C FRI. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE
90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS
OVER 100 WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SATURDAY. LOCAL WRF AND CANSAC WRF
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY FRI/SAT WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN US. A
LOW OFF THE COAST WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND WEAKEN THE HIGH AND
RESULT IN COOLING. THE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK BUT
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
020300Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR IN ORANGE COUNTY TONIGHT.
PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z
WITH SCT010-015 BECOMING SCT-BKN005-010 THROUGH 13Z. SKIES CLEARING
BY 16Z. AFT 16Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS
WELL AS THE FAR N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 020440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME
STRATUS AGAIN TO THE COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS...THOUGH HOT
WEATHER WILL STILL OCCUR IN SOME INLAND AREAS THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.
CONTINUED COOLING WILL OCCUR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE PATCHES OF STRATUS
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST HAVING MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY
MID-EVENING. 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MOSTLY BE HIGH OVERNIGHT ONLY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND OFF THE COAST...SO STRATUS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE
STRENGTH THURSDAY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GRADIENTS
WILL BE UP TO 10 MB FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO THE SO-CAL COAST THU
WITH RATHER LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. 00Z FWIS
SHOWS GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 45 MPH RANGE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE EAST VERSUS
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO HIGHEST WINDS COULD BE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY COVERS THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL.
GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE WIND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE HIGHER WINDS...LIKE SILL
HILL...WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY THERE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BUILDING HIGH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AROUND 20-21 C THU AND
22-23 C FRI. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE
90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS
OVER 100 WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SATURDAY. LOCAL WRF AND CANSAC WRF
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY FRI/SAT WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN US. A
LOW OFF THE COAST WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND WEAKEN THE HIGH AND
RESULT IN COOLING. THE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK BUT
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
020300Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR IN ORANGE COUNTY TONIGHT.
PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z
WITH SCT010-015 BECOMING SCT-BKN005-010 THROUGH 13Z. SKIES CLEARING
BY 16Z. AFT 16Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS
WELL AS THE FAR N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 020440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME
STRATUS AGAIN TO THE COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS...THOUGH HOT
WEATHER WILL STILL OCCUR IN SOME INLAND AREAS THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.
CONTINUED COOLING WILL OCCUR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE PATCHES OF STRATUS
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST HAVING MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY
MID-EVENING. 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MOSTLY BE HIGH OVERNIGHT ONLY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND OFF THE COAST...SO STRATUS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE
STRENGTH THURSDAY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GRADIENTS
WILL BE UP TO 10 MB FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO THE SO-CAL COAST THU
WITH RATHER LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. 00Z FWIS
SHOWS GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 45 MPH RANGE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE EAST VERSUS
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO HIGHEST WINDS COULD BE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY COVERS THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL.
GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE WIND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE HIGHER WINDS...LIKE SILL
HILL...WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY THERE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BUILDING HIGH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AROUND 20-21 C THU AND
22-23 C FRI. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE
90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS
OVER 100 WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SATURDAY. LOCAL WRF AND CANSAC WRF
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY FRI/SAT WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN US. A
LOW OFF THE COAST WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND WEAKEN THE HIGH AND
RESULT IN COOLING. THE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK BUT
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
020300Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR IN ORANGE COUNTY TONIGHT.
PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z
WITH SCT010-015 BECOMING SCT-BKN005-010 THROUGH 13Z. SKIES CLEARING
BY 16Z. AFT 16Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS
WELL AS THE FAR N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...PG







000
FXUS66 KSGX 020440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND VERY
WARM TO HOT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND BRINGS SOME
STRATUS AGAIN TO THE COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS...THOUGH HOT
WEATHER WILL STILL OCCUR IN SOME INLAND AREAS THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY.
CONTINUED COOLING WILL OCCUR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH THE PATCHES OF STRATUS
ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST HAVING MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY
MID-EVENING. 00Z NAM/LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MOSTLY BE HIGH OVERNIGHT ONLY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND OFF THE COAST...SO STRATUS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE
STRENGTH THURSDAY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GRADIENTS
WILL BE UP TO 10 MB FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO THE SO-CAL COAST THU
WITH RATHER LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. 00Z FWIS
SHOWS GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 45 MPH RANGE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE EAST VERSUS
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SO HIGHEST WINDS COULD BE IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY COVERS THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THIS LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL.
GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE WIND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY RECEIVE HIGHER WINDS...LIKE SILL
HILL...WILL NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY THERE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE WITH THE BUILDING HIGH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AROUND 20-21 C THU AND
22-23 C FRI. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD HAVE A LOT OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE
90S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHEST TEMPS FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS
OVER 100 WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SATURDAY. LOCAL WRF AND CANSAC WRF
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY FRI/SAT WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN US. A
LOW OFF THE COAST WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND WEAKEN THE HIGH AND
RESULT IN COOLING. THE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK BUT
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG...JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
020300Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR IN ORANGE COUNTY TONIGHT.
PATCHY COASTAL STRATUS OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 14Z
WITH SCT010-015 BECOMING SCT-BKN005-010 THROUGH 13Z. SKIES CLEARING
BY 16Z. AFT 16Z...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS
WELL AS THE FAR N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY
THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...PG







000
FXUS66 KSTO 020409
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
909 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northeast to east winds over the Sierra Nevada
overnight, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm days and cool nights ahead for the next several days. A ridge
of high pressure will continue to build over the region into
Saturday warming temperatures a little each day. Upper 80s to
lower 90`s for valley locations on Thursday warming into the 90s
for Friday and Saturday. At night temperatures will cool into the
50s with a few of the cooler spots dipping into the upper 40s.
Mountain valley`s will cool into the 20s and 30s. Lighter winds
with clear skies and a dry air mass tonight will allow for cooler
temperatures overnight. Temperatures will peak Friday and Saturday
with only slight daytime cooling for Sunday expected.

Winds in the valley tonight will generally be light for most areas
while in the Sierra Nevada local gusty canyon winds to 35 mph may
occur. The offshore gradient will get lighter each day along with
the winds into the weekend.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models similar in showing strong upper level ridging
over Interior NorCal Sunday gradually weakening through the
extended forecast period. Also, weak upper low forecast to develop
early next week and slowly approach the Coast. Result will be dry
weather with high temperatures initially about 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday, returning to near normal by the middle of next
week. EPAC surface high pressure extends through the PacNW into
the Great Basin with thermal troughing resulting in continued
locally breezy North to East wind Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.Aviation...

EPAC upr rdg blds inld with wrmg ams and VFR conds for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs. In Cntrl Vly...dcrsg Nly sfc wnd this eve but cont
LLWS ovngt with N-NE wnds to 30 kts at 2kt agl. In fthls and mtns,
lcl N-E sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts tngt into Thu.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 020409
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
909 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northeast to east winds over the Sierra Nevada
overnight, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm days and cool nights ahead for the next several days. A ridge
of high pressure will continue to build over the region into
Saturday warming temperatures a little each day. Upper 80s to
lower 90`s for valley locations on Thursday warming into the 90s
for Friday and Saturday. At night temperatures will cool into the
50s with a few of the cooler spots dipping into the upper 40s.
Mountain valley`s will cool into the 20s and 30s. Lighter winds
with clear skies and a dry air mass tonight will allow for cooler
temperatures overnight. Temperatures will peak Friday and Saturday
with only slight daytime cooling for Sunday expected.

Winds in the valley tonight will generally be light for most areas
while in the Sierra Nevada local gusty canyon winds to 35 mph may
occur. The offshore gradient will get lighter each day along with
the winds into the weekend.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models similar in showing strong upper level ridging
over Interior NorCal Sunday gradually weakening through the
extended forecast period. Also, weak upper low forecast to develop
early next week and slowly approach the Coast. Result will be dry
weather with high temperatures initially about 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday, returning to near normal by the middle of next
week. EPAC surface high pressure extends through the PacNW into
the Great Basin with thermal troughing resulting in continued
locally breezy North to East wind Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.Aviation...

EPAC upr rdg blds inld with wrmg ams and VFR conds for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs. In Cntrl Vly...dcrsg Nly sfc wnd this eve but cont
LLWS ovngt with N-NE wnds to 30 kts at 2kt agl. In fthls and mtns,
lcl N-E sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts tngt into Thu.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 020355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT...SWEEPING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS
MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAD PLUNGED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT GRADUALLY HIGHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR EXPECTED HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND EVEN LOWER TO MID 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL BE UNIFORMLY IN THE 90S WITH
SEVERAL SPOTS EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL FORECAST ZONES. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT IS THE RELATIVELY LONG OCTOBER NIGHTS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BY
SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CEASE AND
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING IN COASTAL
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT
ON SATURDAY AND SEE ONLY SUBTLE COOLING BY SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MARINE LAYER BECOME
REESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 020355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
855 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE SUBTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS. GRADUAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT...SWEEPING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THIS
MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAD PLUNGED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS ALOFT GRADUALLY HIGHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR EXPECTED HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERSISTENT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND EVEN LOWER TO MID 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL BE UNIFORMLY IN THE 90S WITH
SEVERAL SPOTS EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY FOR
ALL FORECAST ZONES. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT IS THE RELATIVELY LONG OCTOBER NIGHTS WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE IN MOST AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AND
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BY
SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CEASE AND
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING IN COASTAL
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT
ON SATURDAY AND SEE ONLY SUBTLE COOLING BY SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MARINE LAYER BECOME
REESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 020345
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR. HOT...DRY...AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 35 N AND 130 W WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE
GREAT BASIN. A COLD AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CREATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH...WHILE AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THORUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 107. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 950 MB WINDS RIDING RIGHT NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS. WITH DECENT
THERMAL SUPPORT AT 850 MB...A WIND ADVISORY WAS ADDED TO THE
PACKAGE FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE
VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS...AND THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA
CLARITA VALLEYS. THE THOUGHT WAS THAT THE THERMAL SUPPORT COULD
MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASE THE WINDS
BY ABOUT 5 MPH.

TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND NO UPDATES WERE PLANNED FOR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE BIGGEST WARMUP THU
WHILE ON FRIDAY THE BIGGER JUMP WILL BE THE INTERIOR AS COLD AIR
FROM THE PASSING TROF EXITS THE AREA.

SAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST A LITTLE SHORT. SANTA MARIAS
RECORD OF 96 THU MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105 BECAUSE WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 10% RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.

LONG TERM...COOLING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS GRADIENTS START
TURNING ONSHORE. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. SKIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR
CLOUDS RETURNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0230Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0230Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 1400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR ARE
POSSIBLE AT KOXR MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH A CHANCE OF WIND
SHEAR AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE MAINLY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.

&&

MARINE...01/900 PM.

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. MODERATE
NW SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND REMAIN SMALL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM SOUTH OF
VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...01/900 PM.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN
INTO THE VALLEY AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA
AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 6
HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WELL WITH HOT
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND VERY
LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...HALL
MARINE...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 020016 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...INTERIOR AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST SEEING
THE INITIAL SHOT OF SANTA ANA WINDS TODAY, PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE. WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL SHIFT AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING WITH THE MAIN OFFSHORE
PUSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU WHICH WILL BRING WINDS DOWN TO COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS (EXCEPT LA COAST). BECAUSE IT`S PRIMARILY GRADIENT
DRIVEN IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOW GRADE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE MID 40S IN THE FAVORED (AND
GENERALLY UNPOPULATED) AREAS WHILE MOST AREAS SEE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30S OR LESS. ON FRIDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 MPH LESS THAN THU BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE USUAL SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S, THEN ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES FRI. COASTAL AREAS WILL
PROBABLY SEE BIGGEST WARMUP THU WHILE ON FRIDAY THE BIGGER JUMP WILL
BE THE INTERIOR AS COLD AIR FROM THE PASSING TROF EXITS THE AREA.

SAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST A LITTLE SHORT. SANTA MARIA`S
RECORD OF 96 THU MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105 BECAUSE WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 10% RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS GRADIENTS
START TURNING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR
CLOUDS RETURNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0016Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR ARE
POSSIBLE AT KOXR MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH A CHANCE OF WIND
SHEAR AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE MAINLY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220 PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 020016 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...INTERIOR AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST SEEING
THE INITIAL SHOT OF SANTA ANA WINDS TODAY, PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE. WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL SHIFT AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING WITH THE MAIN OFFSHORE
PUSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU WHICH WILL BRING WINDS DOWN TO COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS (EXCEPT LA COAST). BECAUSE IT`S PRIMARILY GRADIENT
DRIVEN IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOW GRADE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE MID 40S IN THE FAVORED (AND
GENERALLY UNPOPULATED) AREAS WHILE MOST AREAS SEE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30S OR LESS. ON FRIDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 MPH LESS THAN THU BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE USUAL SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S, THEN ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES FRI. COASTAL AREAS WILL
PROBABLY SEE BIGGEST WARMUP THU WHILE ON FRIDAY THE BIGGER JUMP WILL
BE THE INTERIOR AS COLD AIR FROM THE PASSING TROF EXITS THE AREA.

SAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST A LITTLE SHORT. SANTA MARIA`S
RECORD OF 96 THU MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105 BECAUSE WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 10% RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS GRADIENTS
START TURNING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR
CLOUDS RETURNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0016Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR ARE
POSSIBLE AT KOXR MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z...WITH A CHANCE OF WIND
SHEAR AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEY TERMINALS.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE MAINLY
BETWEEN 08Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220 PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 012336
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MANY INLAND SPOTS
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE
REALLY RESPONDED TODAY TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, PLUS WARMER AIR ALOFT. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 14 DEGREES AHEAD OF TUESDAY WITH MOST
INLAND SPOTS IN THE 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO SEEN PLENTY
OF WARMING AS WELL. BOTH MONTEREY AND HALF MOON BAY ALMOST HIT 80
DEGREES EARLIER. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PLUS TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS GETTING OUT TO WARM
LEVELS BY 9 AM. ALSO NOTICED THAT THE ANOMALY TABLE SHOW SOME
HEIGHTS WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL OVER 5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL JUST OFF THE COAST -- IN OTHER WORDS STRONGLY SUGGESTING
THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF JUST
STAYING INLAND. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE
WARMEST READINGS AND CONSIDERING THE GFS/NAM VALUES ARE STARTING
TO TREND THAT WAY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST USES THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS. WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AT THE COAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 90S INLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SPOTS TO BREAK
THE 90S NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME LOWER 100S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
THE ONE GOOD SIDE OF THE HEAT IS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL OFF AND RETURN BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FIRE WEATHER
THE OFFSHORE FLOW, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER A DEFINITE CONCERN.

THE ONE BIG QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST IS WHEN WILL TEMPERATURES
START TO LOWER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS. THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS BY SATURDAY THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO ABATE WHICH WILL
HELP THE SEABREEZE KICK IN ONCE AGAIN. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME RELIEF, ALTHOUGH MANY SPOTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT
HELPING TO FURTHER COOL THE COAST. INLAND SPOTS SHOULD COOL 3 TO 8
DEGREES ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST BY NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES TO THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE. CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED -- OUT TO OCTOBER 15TH.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 012336
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
436 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MANY INLAND SPOTS
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE
REALLY RESPONDED TODAY TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, PLUS WARMER AIR ALOFT. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 14 DEGREES AHEAD OF TUESDAY WITH MOST
INLAND SPOTS IN THE 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO SEEN PLENTY
OF WARMING AS WELL. BOTH MONTEREY AND HALF MOON BAY ALMOST HIT 80
DEGREES EARLIER. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PLUS TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS GETTING OUT TO WARM
LEVELS BY 9 AM. ALSO NOTICED THAT THE ANOMALY TABLE SHOW SOME
HEIGHTS WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL OVER 5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL JUST OFF THE COAST -- IN OTHER WORDS STRONGLY SUGGESTING
THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF JUST
STAYING INLAND. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE
WARMEST READINGS AND CONSIDERING THE GFS/NAM VALUES ARE STARTING
TO TREND THAT WAY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST USES THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS. WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AT THE COAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 90S INLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SPOTS TO BREAK
THE 90S NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME LOWER 100S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
THE ONE GOOD SIDE OF THE HEAT IS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL OFF AND RETURN BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FIRE WEATHER
THE OFFSHORE FLOW, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER A DEFINITE CONCERN.

THE ONE BIG QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST IS WHEN WILL TEMPERATURES
START TO LOWER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS. THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS BY SATURDAY THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO ABATE WHICH WILL
HELP THE SEABREEZE KICK IN ONCE AGAIN. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME RELIEF, ALTHOUGH MANY SPOTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT
HELPING TO FURTHER COOL THE COAST. INLAND SPOTS SHOULD COOL 3 TO 8
DEGREES ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST BY NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES TO THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE. CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED -- OUT TO OCTOBER 15TH.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODERATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 012232
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
332 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE WERE A FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE EEL RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY. WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES THE VALLEYS SAW GOOD RADIATONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
IN TRINITY COUNTY A FEW AREAS DROPPED BELOW 36 DEGREES AND LIKELY
SAW FROST. THE HAYFORK RAWS DROPPED TO 35 DEGREES.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM A BIT AND THIS SHOULD WARM THE RIDGES
A BIT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.
HAYFORK AND POSSIBLY OTHER COLD VALLEYS IN TRINITY COUNTY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME FROST AGAIN SO WILL ISSUE ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY.
COASTAL AREAS AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG
AGAIN...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY LIKE TODAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AT THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY CLEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
GROUND FOG EACH NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. FROST
OVER TRINITY COUNTY IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NIGHTS WILL BE CHILLY WITH WARM AFTERNOONS INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
INLAND...HOWEVER NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF COASTAL CLOUDS ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE COAST CLEAR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FROST ACROSS INLAND
VALLEYS AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL AND THINGS REMAIN
CLEAR AND DRY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8-11 FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS NEAR 11 SECONDS. CDIP BUOYS
SHOWED MOST ALL THE WAVE ENERGY SKEWED TOWARD SHORT PERIOD BANDS OF
12-10, 10-8, 8-6 AND 6-2 SECONDS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY LESS NEAR SHORE TODAY, IT IS STILL QUITE ROUGH A FEW MILES
OUT. THUS THE WARNING FOR SEAS AND THE ADVISORY FOR WINDS LOOK ON
TRACK. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BUILD
TONIGHT INTO THU AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD. THE
DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI. EXPECT WINDS TO TREND UP
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL WARM A BIT TONIGHT AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR IN THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE AS IT APPEARS WINDS MAY
PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECOVERIES WILL BE
VERY POOR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALTHOUGH VALLEYS AND NORTH
SLOPES WILL SEE MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KREV 012158 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 012158 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 012158 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 012158 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KMTR 012156
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
256 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MANY INLAND SPOTS
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE
REALLY RESPONDED TODAY TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, PLUS WARMER AIR ALOFT. MANY
LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 14 DEGREES AHEAD OF TUESDAY WITH MOST
INLAND SPOTS IN THE 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALSO SEEN PLENTY
OF WARMING AS WELL. BOTH MONTEREY AND HALF MOON BAY ALMOST HIT 80
DEGREES EARLIER. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PLUS TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS GETTING OUT TO WARM
LEVELS BY 9 AM. ALSO NOTICED THAT THE ANOMALY TABLE SHOW SOME
HEIGHTS WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL OVER 5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL JUST OFF THE COAST -- IN OTHER WORDS STRONGLY SUGGESTING
THAT THE HEAT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF JUST
STAYING INLAND. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE
WARMEST READINGS AND CONSIDERING THE GFS/NAM VALUES ARE STARTING
TO TREND THAT WAY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST USES THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS. WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S AT THE COAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 90S INLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SPOTS TO BREAK
THE 90S NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME LOWER 100S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
THE ONE GOOD SIDE OF THE HEAT IS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL OFF AND RETURN BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FIRE WEATHER
THE OFFSHORE FLOW, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER A DEFINITE CONCERN.

THE ONE BIG QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST IS WHEN WILL TEMPERATURES
START TO LOWER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS. THINKING RIGHT NOW
IS BY SATURDAY THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO ABATE WHICH WILL
HELP THE SEABREEZE KICK IN ONCE AGAIN. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME RELIEF, ALTHOUGH MANY SPOTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT
HELPING TO FURTHER COOL THE COAST. INLAND SPOTS SHOULD COOL 3 TO 8
DEGREES ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST BY NEXT WORK WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES TO THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FEATURE. CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED -- OUT TO OCTOBER 15TH.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 012132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WITH COMPLETELY DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (IN SOME CASES CALM)...WITH ANY STRONGER
GUSTS RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AT KBLH...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE...EVEN AFTER DECOUPLING. MORE PREVALENT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AT KBLH...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SFC WINDS AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 012132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WITH COMPLETELY DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (IN SOME CASES CALM)...WITH ANY STRONGER
GUSTS RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AT KBLH...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE...EVEN AFTER DECOUPLING. MORE PREVALENT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AT KBLH...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SFC WINDS AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 012132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WITH COMPLETELY DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (IN SOME CASES CALM)...WITH ANY STRONGER
GUSTS RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AT KBLH...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE...EVEN AFTER DECOUPLING. MORE PREVALENT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AT KBLH...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SFC WINDS AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 012132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON SATURDAY. WITH COMPLETELY DRY
WEATHER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO WAS FORCING A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH POST
FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE RISES WERE WANING SLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESS.
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PROGRESSING
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL CAA SKIRTING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND PERSIST AS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE...UPSTREAM FLOW
AMPLIFICATION...AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANSION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT MORE
NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER
TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. LOCAL SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED GUSTINESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING A 588-591DM RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT
LOCALES...INCLUDING PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH
THE ALREADY WARM WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST
100F HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN
PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (IN SOME CASES CALM)...WITH ANY STRONGER
GUSTS RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AT KBLH...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE...EVEN AFTER DECOUPLING. MORE PREVALENT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AT KBLH...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SFC WINDS AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING
UP VERY SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO/HIRSCH






000
FXUS66 KSTO 012129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
North winds continue to be pretty breezy along the valley and
western slope of the Sierra today. Winds have been gusting to
around 30-35 mph along the western side of the Sac Valley and
peaking around 40-50 mph in local areas along the Sierra and
favorable SW-NE canyons. N-S surface pressure gradients are
slackening some and becoming more easterly since this morning.
As a result, breezy north winds should continue to slowly decline
through the evening...while breezy east-northeast winds over the
mountains are expected through tomorrow morning.

Temperatures are running several degrees warmer today as strong
high pressure builds into the region. The warming trend will
continue through at least Saturday, with temperatures rising
several degrees above normal and Saturday being the hottest day
of the week. However, records are not expected to be broken during
this stretch of summer-like weather. Though winds will be lighter
than they were today, dry north winds will continue through the
early weekend with occasional breeziness. Shen

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models similar in showing strong upper level ridging
over Interior NorCal Sunday gradually weakening through the
extended forecast period. Also, weak upper low forecast to develop
early next week and slowly approach the Coast. Result will be dry
weather with high temperatures initially about 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday, returning to near normal by the middle of next
week. EPAC surface high pressure extends through the PacNW into
the Great Basin with thermal troughing resulting in continued
locally breezy North to East wind Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.Aviation...

EPAC upr rdg blds inld with wrmg ams and VFR conds for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs. In Cntrl Vly...dcrsg Nly sfc wnd this eve but cont
LLWS ovngt with N-NE wnds to 30 kts at 2kt agl. In fthls and mtns,
areas N-E sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts tngt into Thu.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 012129
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
229 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
North winds continue to be pretty breezy along the valley and
western slope of the Sierra today. Winds have been gusting to
around 30-35 mph along the western side of the Sac Valley and
peaking around 40-50 mph in local areas along the Sierra and
favorable SW-NE canyons. N-S surface pressure gradients are
slackening some and becoming more easterly since this morning.
As a result, breezy north winds should continue to slowly decline
through the evening...while breezy east-northeast winds over the
mountains are expected through tomorrow morning.

Temperatures are running several degrees warmer today as strong
high pressure builds into the region. The warming trend will
continue through at least Saturday, with temperatures rising
several degrees above normal and Saturday being the hottest day
of the week. However, records are not expected to be broken during
this stretch of summer-like weather. Though winds will be lighter
than they were today, dry north winds will continue through the
early weekend with occasional breeziness. Shen

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models similar in showing strong upper level ridging
over Interior NorCal Sunday gradually weakening through the
extended forecast period. Also, weak upper low forecast to develop
early next week and slowly approach the Coast. Result will be dry
weather with high temperatures initially about 10 degrees above
normal on Sunday, returning to near normal by the middle of next
week. EPAC surface high pressure extends through the PacNW into
the Great Basin with thermal troughing resulting in continued
locally breezy North to East wind Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.Aviation...

EPAC upr rdg blds inld with wrmg ams and VFR conds for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs. In Cntrl Vly...dcrsg Nly sfc wnd this eve but cont
LLWS ovngt with N-NE wnds to 30 kts at 2kt agl. In fthls and mtns,
areas N-E sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts tngt into Thu.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KHNX 012054
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
154 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION...SO WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING OFF THE COAST OF CA
AND WILL MOVE INLAND BY THURSDAY...OR TOMORROW. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE STARTING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...OR AROUND 5 DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD HIGH VALUES.

SHORT-TERM CONCERNS ARE LOW HUMIDITY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN TULARE
AND KERN COUNTIES...AS THE RIDGING WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW
BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...ARE EXPECTING THE
LONGEST PERIOD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS FOR NOW.
MODELS SHOW SOME RECOVERY IN HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MAY BE LITTLE CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHOW LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS EVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY
SOMEWHAT WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AT
TIMES. AT ANY RATE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP DURING FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. FROM
THE ROCKIES EASTWARD AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE
REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891
KFAT 10-03      101:1980     62:1916     69:2012     41:1908

KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
KBFL 10-03      103:1933     64:1916     72:2012     34:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ295-297.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KREV 012052
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
152 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MISS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 012052
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
152 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MISS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 012052
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
152 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MISS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 012052
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
152 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FREEZE WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SIERRA MAY DROP INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT.

BACKGROUND ON THE FREEZE WARNING...THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT FOR THIS
YEAR. THE INTENT IS TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZES DURING THE GROWING SEASON
AND/OR THE FIRST FREEZE IN AUTUMN. THE CRITERIA FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND POPULATED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

LOOKING AT THE LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE THE
OVERALL AIR MISS IS NOT OVERLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LARGE POPULATION
CENTERS, SUCH AS RENO, WHERE THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. MID 30S IS STILL COLD ENOUGH TO DAMAGE HOME
GARDENS, SO TRY TO COVER YOUR PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BUT STILL
DROP INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIERRA VALLEYS WILL
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT SURFACE INVERSIONS
TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH
A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
OPEN WAVE HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS
WOULD VARY WITH EITHER SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THE CHANCE FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ001-003>005.

CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     CAZ070-071.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSGX 012036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL
AREAS BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT THURSDAY MORNING. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING...AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN BETTER
STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOON...ACCORDING
TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A BIT LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE TO COASTAL
EDDY AND MAYBE THE SHORTWAVE-TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE 6.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...COMPARED TO ONLY 1.3 MB AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO START IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT
THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING...AT
AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO LOCAL
WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FOR THE AREAS THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH AND WEST OF THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS...AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS. LOCAL WRF INDICATES STRATUS
MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AND LESS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
BEFORE THE MARINE LAYER GETS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY MORNING...IT MAY
BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST.
ORANGE COUNTY IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH STRATUS/FOG DUE TO THE BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THAT AREA. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL
SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
012015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 02/06Z AND UP
TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500
FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. VIS MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS BEYOND THU MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING.
NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6
FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE
AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SURF...STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...VALID EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 012036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL
AREAS BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT THURSDAY MORNING. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING...AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN BETTER
STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOON...ACCORDING
TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A BIT LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE TO COASTAL
EDDY AND MAYBE THE SHORTWAVE-TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE 6.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...COMPARED TO ONLY 1.3 MB AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO START IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT
THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING...AT
AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO LOCAL
WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FOR THE AREAS THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH AND WEST OF THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS...AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS. LOCAL WRF INDICATES STRATUS
MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AND LESS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
BEFORE THE MARINE LAYER GETS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY MORNING...IT MAY
BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST.
ORANGE COUNTY IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH STRATUS/FOG DUE TO THE BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THAT AREA. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL
SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
012015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 02/06Z AND UP
TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500
FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. VIS MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS BEYOND THU MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING.
NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6
FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE
AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SURF...STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...VALID EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 012036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL
AREAS BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT THURSDAY MORNING. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING...AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN BETTER
STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOON...ACCORDING
TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A BIT LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE TO COASTAL
EDDY AND MAYBE THE SHORTWAVE-TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE 6.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...COMPARED TO ONLY 1.3 MB AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO START IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT
THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING...AT
AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO LOCAL
WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FOR THE AREAS THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH AND WEST OF THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS...AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS. LOCAL WRF INDICATES STRATUS
MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AND LESS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
BEFORE THE MARINE LAYER GETS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY MORNING...IT MAY
BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST.
ORANGE COUNTY IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH STRATUS/FOG DUE TO THE BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THAT AREA. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL
SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
012015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 02/06Z AND UP
TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500
FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. VIS MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS BEYOND THU MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING.
NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6
FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE
AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SURF...STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...VALID EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 012036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL
AREAS BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT THURSDAY MORNING. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING...AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN BETTER
STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOON...ACCORDING
TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A BIT LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE TO COASTAL
EDDY AND MAYBE THE SHORTWAVE-TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE 6.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...COMPARED TO ONLY 1.3 MB AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO START IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT
THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING...AT
AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO
SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO LOCAL
WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE
CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAINLY FOR THE AREAS THROUGH AND
BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH AND WEST OF THE SAN GORGONIO
PASS...AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS. LOCAL WRF INDICATES STRATUS
MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AND LESS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
BEFORE THE MARINE LAYER GETS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY MORNING...IT MAY
BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST.
ORANGE COUNTY IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH STRATUS/FOG DUE TO THE BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THAT AREA. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL
SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
012015Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 02/06Z AND UP
TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500
FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. VIS MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS BEYOND THU MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 45
KT...WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA
ANA MTNS WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING.
NE TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z...WEAKENING BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURF OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITH SETS TO 6
FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF ORANGE
AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SURF...STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AT MOST AREA BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...VALID EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KLOX 012021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...INTERIOR AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST SEEING
THE INITIAL SHOT OF SANTA ANA WINDS TODAY, PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE. WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL SHIFT AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING WITH THE MAIN OFFSHORE
PUSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU WHICH WILL BRING WINDS DOWN TO COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS (EXCEPT LA COAST). BECAUSE IT`S PRIMARILY GRADIENT
DRIVEN IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOW GRADE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE MID 40S IN THE FAVORED (AND
GENERALLY UNPOPULATED) AREAS WHILE MOST AREAS SEE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30S OR LESS. ON FRIDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 MPH LESS THAN THU BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE USUAL SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S, THEN ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES FRI. COASTAL AREAS WILL
PROBABLY SEE BIGGEST WARMUP THU WHILE ON FRIDAY THE BIGGER JUMP WILL
BE THE INTERIOR AS COLD AIR FROM THE PASSING TROF EXITS THE AREA.

SAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST A LITTLE SHORT. SANTA MARIA`S
RECORD OF 96 THU MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105 BECAUSE WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 10% RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS GRADIENTS
START TURNING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR
CLOUDS RETURNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220 PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 012021
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...INTERIOR AREAS AND CENTRAL COAST SEEING
THE INITIAL SHOT OF SANTA ANA WINDS TODAY, PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE. WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL DIURNAL SHIFT AND WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING WITH THE MAIN OFFSHORE
PUSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU WHICH WILL BRING WINDS DOWN TO COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS (EXCEPT LA COAST). BECAUSE IT`S PRIMARILY GRADIENT
DRIVEN IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A LOW GRADE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT AT
BEST WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE MID 40S IN THE FAVORED (AND
GENERALLY UNPOPULATED) AREAS WHILE MOST AREAS SEE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IN THE 30S OR LESS. ON FRIDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
10 MPH LESS THAN THU BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE USUAL SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO JUMP SEVERAL DEGREES THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S, THEN ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES FRI. COASTAL AREAS WILL
PROBABLY SEE BIGGEST WARMUP THU WHILE ON FRIDAY THE BIGGER JUMP WILL
BE THE INTERIOR AS COLD AIR FROM THE PASSING TROF EXITS THE AREA.

SAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST A LITTLE SHORT. SANTA MARIA`S
RECORD OF 96 THU MAY BE THE EXCEPTION. HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WARNING THRESHOLD OF 105 BECAUSE WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES UNDER 10% RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...COOLING TREND TO BEGIN SUNDAY AS GRADIENTS
START TURNING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR, EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR
CLOUDS RETURNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220 PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011925 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 PM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220 PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011925
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1220 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...01/1220PM.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO FORM TODAY OVER INTERIOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS OVER THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AS HUMIDITIES START TO
DROP. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH DOWN INTO THE VALLEY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND BRING HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXCEED THE 6 HOUR DURATION THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL. SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
AS WELL WITH HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AND VERY LOCALIZED...MOSTLY CONFINED TO SELECT INTERIOR VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOTTER AND DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
REGARDLESS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLING
AND MOISTENING EXPECTED GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 011831
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 011831
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 011831
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 011831
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1800Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD KEEP ANY MARINE CLOUDS AT BAY AND INSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SURPRISE PATCH OF MARINE CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KMTR 011724
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1024 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS,
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALL
COMBINE TO BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.
BASED OFF OF ECMWF GUIDANCE PLUS ANALOGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL SPOTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE BEACHES
WITH MOST INLAND SPOTS IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. SATURDAY COULD
ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
THAT DAY AS WELL.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK -- NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LATE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:07 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: W PI
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 011630
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Breezy north winds continue this morning as tight gradient has
developed over the western sac valley between surface high building
into the great basin and surface trough over the central valley.
Winds are gusting up to 30 mph in several valley locations. After
coordination with area national forests moist fuel conditions from
recent rains will mitigate critical fire conditions. High temperatures
will warm to a few degrees above normal. Main forecast challenge
for the day will be winds which are expected to stay just below
advisory levels. Current forecast is on track and will not make
any updates.

.Previous Discussion...
Clear skies across early this morning as strong high pressure
begins to build across the region in the wake of Tuesday evening`s
short-wave that moved through. Water vapor imagery indicating a
large area of drying in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
over NorCal indicative of strong subsidence. Current temperatures
are mainly in the 30s and 40s in the mountains while the foothills
and valley are in the 50s and 60s.

Northerly surface pressure gradients have continued to steadily
increase overnight and are now over 11 mbs from KMFR to KSAC.
Breezy northerly winds have developed through the Sacramento
Valley early this morning. Strongest winds are presently along the
west side of the valley where gusts to around 30 mph are being
reported. Pressure gradients shift and become more easterly today
and tonight before weakening on Thursday.

Daytime temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure
continues to build along the west coast and surface flow becomes
light to moderate offshore as the thermal trough migrates closer
to the coast. Valley high temperatures are expected to be in the
90s over the weekend before dropping off a bit early next week as
high pressure weakens slightly.

Crisp overnight lows will develop in many areas later this week as
winds subside and a cool/dry airmass allows efficient radiational
cooling with the longer nights of autumn. Mountain valleys will
see sub-freezing temperatures and the Central Valley will see some
overnight lows down into the 40s.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds surface
winds sustained 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 knots higher terrain and
west side of the Sacramento valley. Low level wind shear TAF sites
with winds northeast to 40 knots 1000 to 2000 feet agl. Winds
decreasing after 00z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 011630
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Breezy north winds continue this morning as tight gradient has
developed over the western sac valley between surface high building
into the great basin and surface trough over the central valley.
Winds are gusting up to 30 mph in several valley locations. After
coordination with area national forests moist fuel conditions from
recent rains will mitigate critical fire conditions. High temperatures
will warm to a few degrees above normal. Main forecast challenge
for the day will be winds which are expected to stay just below
advisory levels. Current forecast is on track and will not make
any updates.

.Previous Discussion...
Clear skies across early this morning as strong high pressure
begins to build across the region in the wake of Tuesday evening`s
short-wave that moved through. Water vapor imagery indicating a
large area of drying in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
over NorCal indicative of strong subsidence. Current temperatures
are mainly in the 30s and 40s in the mountains while the foothills
and valley are in the 50s and 60s.

Northerly surface pressure gradients have continued to steadily
increase overnight and are now over 11 mbs from KMFR to KSAC.
Breezy northerly winds have developed through the Sacramento
Valley early this morning. Strongest winds are presently along the
west side of the valley where gusts to around 30 mph are being
reported. Pressure gradients shift and become more easterly today
and tonight before weakening on Thursday.

Daytime temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure
continues to build along the west coast and surface flow becomes
light to moderate offshore as the thermal trough migrates closer
to the coast. Valley high temperatures are expected to be in the
90s over the weekend before dropping off a bit early next week as
high pressure weakens slightly.

Crisp overnight lows will develop in many areas later this week as
winds subside and a cool/dry airmass allows efficient radiational
cooling with the longer nights of autumn. Mountain valleys will
see sub-freezing temperatures and the Central Valley will see some
overnight lows down into the 40s.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds surface
winds sustained 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 knots higher terrain and
west side of the Sacramento valley. Low level wind shear TAF sites
with winds northeast to 40 knots 1000 to 2000 feet agl. Winds
decreasing after 00z.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KLOX 011626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 011626
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT
ULTIMATELY PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY ONCE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING WEAKLY ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS
A TROF PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, THE TRENDS
THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING OFFSHORE WHICH IS GOOD SIGN THAT
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS SHOWING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
STARTING UP SOMETIME THIS MORNING IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY AND WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL THAT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING AND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 1-3 DEGREES OF
COOLING BELOW 3K FT WE`RE OFF TO A SLOWER START TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT
THE OFFSHORE TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD OFFSET THAT AND BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON WHAT THE 12Z
MODELS ARE SHOWING AND I`M NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WITHOUT THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS PRETTY LOW END
WIND EVENT FOR SANTA ANAS AND IT WILL BE A MARGINAL CASE FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AT BEST. I`M SURE OUR USUAL WINDY MTN SPOTS WILL GET SOME
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET OUR EXCESSIVE
HEAT CRITERIA WHICH REQUIRES HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS MEASURED BY THERMOMETERS. NONE THE LESS IT
WILL BE HOT THU-SUN, PROBABLY HOTTEST ON SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE
AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS
MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT
TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD
BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT. FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 011612
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
912 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS,
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALL
COMBINE TO BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.
BASED OFF OF ECMWF GUIDANCE PLUS ANALOGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL SPOTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE BEACHES
WITH MOST INLAND SPOTS IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. SATURDAY COULD
ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
THAT DAY AS WELL.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK -- NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011612
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
912 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS,
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALL
COMBINE TO BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.
BASED OFF OF ECMWF GUIDANCE PLUS ANALOGS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL SPOTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE BEACHES
WITH MOST INLAND SPOTS IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. SATURDAY COULD
ALSO BE WARM ENOUGH SO THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
THAT DAY AS WELL.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK -- NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 011604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL
COOLING...AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ACCORDING TO MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS IN COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING
ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND SO IS THE STRATUS.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE
WEST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...AND PRODUCE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
START IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
TONIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING...AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM
SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO
LOCAL WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. THUS...THESE AREAS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST
GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
011445Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL
GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE COAST 16-18Z. PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING BACK INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 03Z AND UP TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS
MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT
WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MTNS WITH
THESE WINDS.

MTNS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 011604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL
COOLING...AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ACCORDING TO MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS IN COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING
ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND SO IS THE STRATUS.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE
WEST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...AND PRODUCE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
START IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
TONIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING...AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM
SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO
LOCAL WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. THUS...THESE AREAS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST
GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
011445Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL
GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE COAST 16-18Z. PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING BACK INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 03Z AND UP TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS
MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT
WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MTNS WITH
THESE WINDS.

MTNS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 011604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL
COOLING...AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ACCORDING TO MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS IN COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING
ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND SO IS THE STRATUS.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE
WEST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...AND PRODUCE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
START IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
TONIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING...AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM
SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO
LOCAL WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. THUS...THESE AREAS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST
GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
011445Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL
GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE COAST 16-18Z. PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING BACK INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 03Z AND UP TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS
MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT
WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MTNS WITH
THESE WINDS.

MTNS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS66 KSGX 011604
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL WEAKEN TODAY...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. DAY-TIME HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT TIMES
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUAL
COOLING...AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS OF
SAN DIEGO COUNTY ACCORDING TO MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS IN COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS A 3 DEGREE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AT AROUND
1700 FEET...WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EDDY...AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING
ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND SO IS THE STRATUS.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE
WEST STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THAT
AREA IN THE TROUGHS WAKE...AND PRODUCE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR AREA. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
START IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND CAJON PASS AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
TONIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ABOUT 1 MB STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING...AT AROUND 10 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND 12 MB FROM
SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR WINDS...WITH 850 MB WINDS ONLY AT AROUND 15-25 KT ACCORDING TO
LOCAL WRF. HOWEVER...CANSAC_WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TO EAST 45-50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SAN GORGONIO PASS...ALONG THE SANTA ANA
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. THUS...THESE AREAS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN LATER THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS MAY STILL SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST
GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER DAYS...WITH
DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEYS...COAST...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE THEIR
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER OFFSHORE
FLOW ON THAT DAY. EXPECTED DAY-TIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE AS FOLLOWS...LOW TO MID 100S IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW
TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. SLIGHT COOLING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE COAST SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SLOW COOLING EACH DAY...AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
011445Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL
GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE COAST 16-18Z. PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING BACK INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 03Z AND UP TO 10 MI INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND 1000-1500 FT MSL...LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY
02/12Z THU IN ORANGE COUNTY...AND 14-16Z IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. VIS
MAY LOCALLY DROP TO 1SM OR LESS OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THU MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 25-35 KT
WILL DEVELOP BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND SANTA ANA FOOTHILLS LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING NEAR KONT. LLWS AND MOD UDDFS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SANTA ANA MTNS WITH
THESE WINDS.

MTNS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 35-45 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
PASSES...CANYONS...AND COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE FAR
N COACHELLA VALLEY BY 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS.
EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON
PASS...WEST OF THE BANNING PASS...PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO
FOOTHILLS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011603
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL/NRN UTAH WAS FORCING A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY LACKING.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN
NEVADA WHILE SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ALLOW NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT FALLS/THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ARGUING FOR A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. ONLY VERY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THEME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014/
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH







000
FXUS65 KPSR 011603
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL/NRN UTAH WAS FORCING A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO FAR NWRN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY LACKING.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN
NEVADA WHILE SATELLITE WV IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ALLOW NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT FALLS/THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ARGUING FOR A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. ONLY VERY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THEME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014/
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH








000
FXUS66 KSGX 011319 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW COOLING
SPREADING INLAND AND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED WITH COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND TO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
PATCHY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
SOME COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT OVER THE
GREAT BASIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCAL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. IN
THE WINDIER AREAS...WINDS COULD LOCALLY GUST TO NEAR THE LOW END OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SLOW
WEAKENING FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING A RETURN OF WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST COOLER
WHILE INLAND AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. FOR THURSDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GREATER WARMING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM INLAND COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MINOR COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY WITH AREAS FARTHER INLAND ABOUT AS HOT AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH VIS ONLY AN ISSUE WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT INLAND TERRAIN.
SCATTER OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST MOSTLY LIKELY ONLY AROUND KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS
EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 700-900 FEET MSL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...
REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS. EXPECT
LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA COULD LOCALLY BE MET
THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND IN THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS INLAND OF THE BEACHES TO THE
     COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BELOW 4500 FEET.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM













000
FXUS66 KSGX 011319 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONGEST THURSDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW COOLING
SPREADING INLAND AND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED WITH COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND TO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
PATCHY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
SOME COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT OVER THE
GREAT BASIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCAL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. IN
THE WINDIER AREAS...WINDS COULD LOCALLY GUST TO NEAR THE LOW END OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SLOW
WEAKENING FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING A RETURN OF WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST COOLER
WHILE INLAND AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. FOR THURSDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GREATER WARMING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM INLAND COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MINOR COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY WITH AREAS FARTHER INLAND ABOUT AS HOT AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH VIS ONLY AN ISSUE WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT INLAND TERRAIN.
SCATTER OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST MOSTLY LIKELY ONLY AROUND KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS
EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 700-900 FEET MSL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...
REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS. EXPECT
LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA COULD LOCALLY BE MET
THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND IN THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS INLAND OF THE BEACHES TO THE
     COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BELOW 4500 FEET.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM












000
FXUS66 KMTR 011204
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
504 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011204
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
504 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011204
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
504 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 011204
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
504 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1130Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0815Z WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. IN THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT TERM...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE STRATUS. ONCE THIS STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY LATE THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAF FROM 12Z THRU 17Z AS THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT CIG RESTRICTIONS
WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FORECAST. BEYOND 17Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TONIGHT
AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
IN MOST AREAS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 25-30 MPH IN
THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE...MW
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KEKA 011125
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
425 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TO SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN TRINITY COUNTY...BUT WITH VERY
FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING FROSTY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...
CONFIDENCE IN FROST FORMING IS NOT VERY HIGH SO NO ADDITIONAL
FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO REACH COASTAL AREAS.
THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY PULL BACK
TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD COASTAL STRATUS TO RETURN
WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.



&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY MODERATE TO
STRONG BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-12 FT. THE 0420Z
ASCAT PASS OVER OUR WATERS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS ZONE 470
AND 25-30 KT ACROSS ZONE 475. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE
HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK. A RIDGE OFFSHORE INTERACTING WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, LEADING TO GALE
TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ZONE 475 EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE GL.W TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. BUT REMNANT STEEP
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, SO ISSUED A SE.W FOR THAT ZONE.
ZONE 470 LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS, SO KEPT THE SC.Y GOING. SEAS IN THAT ZONE WILL REMAIN STEEP,
SO KEPT THE SE.W GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE MWW FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE SC.Y`S WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INNER WATERS AS
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE POINTS AND CAPES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS TRENDING BACK UP THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
CONDITIONS ON AREA RIDGE TOPS. SOME RIDGES HAVE HAD MODERATELY POOR
RECOVERIES TONIGHT WITH RH SITTING IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT WITH RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE NOT VERY RECEPTIVE.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 011125
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
425 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TO SEE FROST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN TRINITY COUNTY...BUT WITH VERY
FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING FROSTY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...
CONFIDENCE IN FROST FORMING IS NOT VERY HIGH SO NO ADDITIONAL
FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO REACH COASTAL AREAS.
THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY PULL BACK
TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD COASTAL STRATUS TO RETURN
WONT BE UNTIL LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE JUST OFF OF THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.



&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY MODERATE TO
STRONG BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6-12 FT. THE 0420Z
ASCAT PASS OVER OUR WATERS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS ZONE 470
AND 25-30 KT ACROSS ZONE 475. THIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AND THE
HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK. A RIDGE OFFSHORE INTERACTING WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, LEADING TO GALE
TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ZONE 475 EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE GL.W TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. BUT REMNANT STEEP
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, SO ISSUED A SE.W FOR THAT ZONE.
ZONE 470 LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS, SO KEPT THE SC.Y GOING. SEAS IN THAT ZONE WILL REMAIN STEEP,
SO KEPT THE SE.W GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE MWW FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE SC.Y`S WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE INNER WATERS AS
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE POINTS AND CAPES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS TRENDING BACK UP THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
CONDITIONS ON AREA RIDGE TOPS. SOME RIDGES HAVE HAD MODERATELY POOR
RECOVERIES TONIGHT WITH RH SITTING IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT WITH RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE NOT VERY RECEPTIVE.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KSGX 011035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND AND WITH A RETURN
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED WITH COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND TO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
PATCHY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
SOME COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT OVER THE
GREAT BASIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCAL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. IN
THE WINDIER AREAS...WINDS COULD LOCALLY GUST TO NEAR THE LOW END OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SLOW
WEAKENING FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING A RETURN OF WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST COOLER
WHILE INLAND AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. FOR THURSDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GREATER WARMING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM INLAND COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MINOR COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY WITH AREAS FARTHER INLAND ABOUT AS HOT AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH VIS ONLY AN ISSUE WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT INLAND TERRAIN.
SCATTER OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST MOSTLY LIKELY ONLY AROUND KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS
EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 700-900 FEET MSL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...
REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS. EXPECT
LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA COULD LOCALLY BE MET
THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND IN THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS INLAND OF THE BEACHES TO THE
     COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BELOW 4500 FEET.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KSGX 011035
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
335 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO COASTAL AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW COOLING SPREADING INLAND AND WITH A RETURN
OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS...A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS DEVELOPED WITH COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND TO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
PATCHY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
SOME COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT OVER THE
GREAT BASIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCAL NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE
SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND BELOW THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES WITH WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. IN
THE WINDIER AREAS...WINDS COULD LOCALLY GUST TO NEAR THE LOW END OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SLOW
WEAKENING FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING A RETURN OF WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW.

FOR TODAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE COAST COOLER
WHILE INLAND AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM. FOR THURSDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING GREATER WARMING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM INLAND COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND LOCALLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MINOR COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY WITH AREAS FARTHER INLAND ABOUT AS HOT AS FRIDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010930Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREAD LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FEET
MSL WITH VIS ONLY AN ISSUE WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT INLAND TERRAIN.
SCATTER OUT WILL OCCUR BY 16-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST MOSTLY LIKELY ONLY AROUND KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 03-05Z THIS
EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 700-900 FEET MSL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO
105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...
REACHING THE MID TEENS BY LATE MORNING FOR INLAND AREAS. EXPECT
LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS MEETING RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...WARNING CRITERIA COULD LOCALLY BE MET
THURSDAY...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON AND BANNING PASSES AND IN THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...THERE
WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS INLAND OF THE BEACHES TO THE
     COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BELOW 4500 FEET.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS65 KPSR 011026
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011026
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011026
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 011026
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT KBLH...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 KT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF
GUST TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS66 KMTR 011024
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
324 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHER;Y SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 011024
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
324 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS THIS MORNING WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE BAY AREA. WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COAST IS
CLEAR. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS 6 MB DOWN THE COAST AND ABOUT 7 MB
FROM SFO-WMC...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC EARLY FALL OFFSHORE
WIND EVENT AND ASSOCIATED WARMING TREND ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SO
FAR SOME OF THE OF THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 47 MPH ON MT
DIABLO...38 MPH AT KNOXVILLE CREEK AND 27 MPH ON MT TAMALPAIS. AT
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2000
FEET BUT THE LAST REPORT OUT OF OAKLAND NORTH AT 1400 FEET HAD A
GUST TO 33 MPH. AS THE SUN COMES UP SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AS THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL END
BY LUNCHTIME FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DISTRICT AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPECT VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WHICH WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. IN GENERAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER THE OCEAN HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SOME
UPWELLING TO OCCUR WITH BUOY 14 SHOWING A 3 DEGREE SST DROP IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES MORE OF
COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS WERE ALREADY SEEING 54 IN MONTEREY WHICH
IS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF THE 60 DEGREE READINGS WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.

ANYWAY THE STRONG HIGH WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A 594 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT THE 592
DM LINE PASSING THROUGH THE BAY AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NEUTRAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 80
AND 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. HEAT SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING ELEVATED AS WELL. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT WERE REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS IN
THAT BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SIMILARLY WARM TO HOT AS WELL.

ANY COOLING OF NOTE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN...AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHER;Y SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA THIS AS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. WIND FLOW WILL TURN
NORTH AND OFFSHORE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE WIND FLOW WILL
TURN STRONGER OFFSHORE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE HIGH
BUILDS SE IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL SET UP A SANTA ANA WIND
PATTERN OVER SCAL BY THE END OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH ROCKIES AND SUPPLEMENTS THE GREAT
BASIN SURFACE HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS SE CA. THE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY EAST
WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE OVER THE COAST WILL
BUILD INLAND OVER BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE BY THURSDAY.
THE DOWNSLOPING WIND FLOW WILL PROVIDE WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TOWARDS THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY AND VALLEY
SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891
KFAT 10-03      101:1980     62:1916     69:2012     41:1908

KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
KBFL 10-03      103:1933     64:1916     72:2012     34:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 011013
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 011013
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 011013
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 011013
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...AND POSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. LESS CONFIDENT FOR STRATUS TO MAKE IT
INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 011002
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. LESS CONFIDENT FOR
STRATUS TO MAKE IT INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 011002
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST ACARS SOUNDING AROUND LAX INDICATED
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP THIS MORNING. AN EDDY
CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALLOWING FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS TO
RANDOMLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOCAL BIGHT...ORANGE COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. WITH THE INVERSION
THIS DEEP AND THE EDDY CIRCULATION IN PLACE...EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE LA COUNTY COAST...SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
AND POSSIBLY THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AS WELL. LESS CONFIDENT FOR
STRATUS TO MAKE IT INTO VENTURA COUNTY AT THIS POINT. THERE WERE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS N OF
POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...BROAD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS TO ITS WEST OVER THE ERN
PAC. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING OFFSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TODAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULTS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS WEAK TO
MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKER
EACH MORNING AFTER THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE LA/VTU
COUNTY VALLEY PASSES AND CANYONS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE TRICKY
PART FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COASTAL TEMPS. A CATALINA EDDY DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL TEMPS A TAD COOLER THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE MIXES OUT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE LA/VTU COAST TODAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE WIND PRONE VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF MODEL IS SUGGESTING
THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT WILL BE AROUND -5.4MB BY 5 AM THU MORNING. THIS
UPCOMING WIND EVENT IS MAINLY SURFACE GRADIENT DRIVEN. THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO DRIVE THE WINDS STRONGER AS THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PORTION OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY NE WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY STRATUS. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MANY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE FRI AND SAT.
FOR FRIDAY THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE LA/VTU
COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND UP THE MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE SBA/SLO COUNTIES...THERE
WILL BE SOME VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. DONT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AVILA BEACH TO REACH 90 WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADJACENT FOOTHILL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL
THE BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 101-106
FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 90S FOR DOWNTOWN
LA AND LONG BEACH. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL VERY HOT. THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AS NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0510Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...01/200 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND
WILL MENTION LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING WITH A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE
ISLANDS. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 011000
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
300 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across early this morning as strong high pressure
begins to build across the region in the wake of Tuesday evening`s
short-wave that moved through. Water vapor imagery indicating a
large area of drying in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
over NorCal indicative of strong subsidence. Current temperatures
are mainly in the 30s and 40s in the mountains while the foothills
and valley are in the 50s and 60s.

Northerly surface pressure gradients have continued to steadily
increase overnight and are now over 11 mbs from KMFR to KSAC.
Breezy northerly winds have developed through the Sacramento
Valley early this morning. Strongest winds are presently along the
west side of the valley where gusts to around 30 mph are being
reported. Pressure gradients shift and become more easterly today
and tonight before weakening on Thursday.

Daytime temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure
continues to build along the west coast and surface flow becomes
light to moderate offshore as the thermal trough migrates closer
to the coast. Valley high temperatures are expected to be in the
90s over the weekend before dropping off a bit early next week as
high pressure weakens slightly.

Crisp overnight lows will develop in many areas later this week as
winds subside and a cool/dry airmass allows efficient radiational
cooling with the longer nights of autumn. Mountain valleys will
see sub-freezing temperatures and the Central Valley will see some
overnight lows down into the 40s.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds surface
winds sustained 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 knots higher terrain and
west side of the Sacramento valley. Low level wind shear TAF sites
with winds northeast to 40 knots 1000 to 2000 feet agl. Winds
decreasing after 00z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 011000
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
300 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this week as high pressure rebuilds. Breezy
to locally windy northerly winds today, decreasing Thursday.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies across early this morning as strong high pressure
begins to build across the region in the wake of Tuesday evening`s
short-wave that moved through. Water vapor imagery indicating a
large area of drying in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
over NorCal indicative of strong subsidence. Current temperatures
are mainly in the 30s and 40s in the mountains while the foothills
and valley are in the 50s and 60s.

Northerly surface pressure gradients have continued to steadily
increase overnight and are now over 11 mbs from KMFR to KSAC.
Breezy northerly winds have developed through the Sacramento
Valley early this morning. Strongest winds are presently along the
west side of the valley where gusts to around 30 mph are being
reported. Pressure gradients shift and become more easterly today
and tonight before weakening on Thursday.

Daytime temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure
continues to build along the west coast and surface flow becomes
light to moderate offshore as the thermal trough migrates closer
to the coast. Valley high temperatures are expected to be in the
90s over the weekend before dropping off a bit early next week as
high pressure weakens slightly.

Crisp overnight lows will develop in many areas later this week as
winds subside and a cool/dry airmass allows efficient radiational
cooling with the longer nights of autumn. Mountain valleys will
see sub-freezing temperatures and the Central Valley will see some
overnight lows down into the 40s.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds surface
winds sustained 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 knots higher terrain and
west side of the Sacramento valley. Low level wind shear TAF sites
with winds northeast to 40 knots 1000 to 2000 feet agl. Winds
decreasing after 00z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KREV 010934
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
START COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY AS A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD OF
WEATHER BEGINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING APPROACHING FREEZING, THERE IS LITTLE TO DISCUSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 28 DEGREES. COLDEST SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS WITH SENSITIVITIES TO COLD TEMPERATURES. WESTERN
NEVADA LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED ARE: THE MASON AND SMITH
VALLEYS, AREAS AROUND FALLON AND LOVELOCK, AND VALLEYS EAST OF
FALLON INCLUDING GRASS VALLEY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DROP TOWARDS 32F, BUT
THE DURATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY BRIEF.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S THIS
MORNING WARMING EACH DAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER WESTERN NEVADA.
HIGHS WILL START COOL TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AND LOW/MID 70S RESPECTIVELY BY FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TODAY WITH FASTEST FLOW ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA AND TO THE WEST. GENERALLY, SIERRA LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE EAST.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAINLY
RESPONDING TO TERTIARY FLOW FOLLOWING DIURNAL PATTERNS ALONG
TERRAIN FEATURES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITH WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND SIERRA VALLEYS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
EACH NIGHT.

FOR MON-TUE, MOST COMPUTER GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WESTERLY
BREEZES AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS LOW
BECAUSE OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND BECAUSE MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE YESTERDAY BROUGHT A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.  AS SUCH,
FOG WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING EVEN IN SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FOG AT KTRK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE
FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 010934
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
START COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY AS A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD OF
WEATHER BEGINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING APPROACHING FREEZING, THERE IS LITTLE TO DISCUSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 28 DEGREES. COLDEST SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS WITH SENSITIVITIES TO COLD TEMPERATURES. WESTERN
NEVADA LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED ARE: THE MASON AND SMITH
VALLEYS, AREAS AROUND FALLON AND LOVELOCK, AND VALLEYS EAST OF
FALLON INCLUDING GRASS VALLEY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DROP TOWARDS 32F, BUT
THE DURATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY BRIEF.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S THIS
MORNING WARMING EACH DAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER WESTERN NEVADA.
HIGHS WILL START COOL TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AND LOW/MID 70S RESPECTIVELY BY FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TODAY WITH FASTEST FLOW ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA AND TO THE WEST. GENERALLY, SIERRA LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE EAST.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAINLY
RESPONDING TO TERTIARY FLOW FOLLOWING DIURNAL PATTERNS ALONG
TERRAIN FEATURES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITH WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND SIERRA VALLEYS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
EACH NIGHT.

FOR MON-TUE, MOST COMPUTER GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WESTERLY
BREEZES AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS LOW
BECAUSE OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND BECAUSE MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE YESTERDAY BROUGHT A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.  AS SUCH,
FOG WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING EVEN IN SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FOG AT KTRK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE
FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KPSR 010906
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 010906
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 010906
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 010906
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL GENERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TODAY WITH A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. CLOUDLESS SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN
CA AND THE SIERRA WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH ONLY
MINOR INFLUENCES ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. 850/700MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ/MOGOLLON LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AZ DESERT ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 100F FOR
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL RESULT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MARICOPA/GILA HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS. WINDS 10-15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED GUSTINESS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
KEEP LOWS EVEN MORE MILD THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PACIFIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST...WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WHERE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT LOCALES...INCLUDING
PHOENIX...HITTING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG WITH THE ALREADY WARM
WESTERN AZ/SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS. THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD OF 1981-2010 IN PHOENIX HAS BEEN OCT
3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST WILL BEGIN WEAKEN AND RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
SUBTLE RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT A SLOW COOLING
TREND OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS66 KLOX 010541 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0540Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 010541 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0540Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 010541 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0540Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 010541 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0540Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KSTO 010416
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy to locally
windy north to east winds tonight and Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Tonight into Wednesday the surface gradient increases over Oregon
and into the Great Basin. Winds will become breezy to locally
windy first over the mountains tonight and over parts of the west
side of the Sacramento valley and then over the remainder of the
Sacramento valley and delta Wednesday morning. Winds should peak
late morning through the middle afternoon hours. High temperatures
will warm by several degrees for most locations.

Light winds with clear skies for the valley Wednesday night may
allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s for many spots.
The lighter winds will and building high pressure will warm Thursday`s
temperatures...mainly to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure continues to build over the region. Temperatures will
continue to warm Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
tonight with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z.
Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 010416
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy to locally
windy north to east winds tonight and Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Tonight into Wednesday the surface gradient increases over Oregon
and into the Great Basin. Winds will become breezy to locally
windy first over the mountains tonight and over parts of the west
side of the Sacramento valley and then over the remainder of the
Sacramento valley and delta Wednesday morning. Winds should peak
late morning through the middle afternoon hours. High temperatures
will warm by several degrees for most locations.

Light winds with clear skies for the valley Wednesday night may
allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s for many spots.
The lighter winds will and building high pressure will warm Thursday`s
temperatures...mainly to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure continues to build over the region. Temperatures will
continue to warm Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
tonight with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z.
Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 010416
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy to locally
windy north to east winds tonight and Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Tonight into Wednesday the surface gradient increases over Oregon
and into the Great Basin. Winds will become breezy to locally
windy first over the mountains tonight and over parts of the west
side of the Sacramento valley and then over the remainder of the
Sacramento valley and delta Wednesday morning. Winds should peak
late morning through the middle afternoon hours. High temperatures
will warm by several degrees for most locations.

Light winds with clear skies for the valley Wednesday night may
allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s for many spots.
The lighter winds will and building high pressure will warm Thursday`s
temperatures...mainly to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure continues to build over the region. Temperatures will
continue to warm Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
tonight with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z.
Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 010416
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy to locally
windy north to east winds tonight and Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Tonight into Wednesday the surface gradient increases over Oregon
and into the Great Basin. Winds will become breezy to locally
windy first over the mountains tonight and over parts of the west
side of the Sacramento valley and then over the remainder of the
Sacramento valley and delta Wednesday morning. Winds should peak
late morning through the middle afternoon hours. High temperatures
will warm by several degrees for most locations.

Light winds with clear skies for the valley Wednesday night may
allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s for many spots.
The lighter winds will and building high pressure will warm Thursday`s
temperatures...mainly to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure continues to build over the region. Temperatures will
continue to warm Friday and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
tonight with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z.
Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 010400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGAN TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE STATE...SKIES
CLEARED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
DISTRICT ALL DAY. THERE WAS A STUBBORN PATCH OF STRATUS HANGING
ONTO THE MONTEREY PENINSULA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT IT
FINALLY CLEARED OUT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
DISTRICT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS RANGED FROM THE 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TO THE 70S
TO MID 80S INLAND. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO
HAS INCREASED TO 6.6 MB...FROM 3.1 MB 24 HOURS AGO. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WMC AND SFO HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 5.3 MB...WHILE THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFO AND SAC HAS LESSENED TO 1.1 MB.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF
SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...IN ADDITION TO OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BY THEN ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S AT THE COAST...TO THE 80S AND 90S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NOT BY MUCH...THUS WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST...BUT WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE N AND E BAY
HILLS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. INITIALLY TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH BUT RAPIDLY
PLUMMET AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CRANKS UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DRYING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED DUE TO THE WET FUELS. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT FINE FUELS
MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DRY THINGS
BACK OUT. FUELS MAY RETURN TO CRITICAL LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK.
NONE THE LESS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHER;Y SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. VFR CONDTITIONS EXPECTED.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 010400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...AS A NORTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGAN TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE STATE...SKIES
CLEARED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE
DISTRICT ALL DAY. THERE WAS A STUBBORN PATCH OF STRATUS HANGING
ONTO THE MONTEREY PENINSULA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...BUT IT
FINALLY CLEARED OUT BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
DISTRICT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS RANGED FROM THE 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TO THE 70S
TO MID 80S INLAND. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM ACV TO SFO
HAS INCREASED TO 6.6 MB...FROM 3.1 MB 24 HOURS AGO. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WMC AND SFO HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 5.3 MB...WHILE THE
ONSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFO AND SAC HAS LESSENED TO 1.1 MB.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
HILLS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY. THE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF
SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...IN ADDITION TO OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS BY THEN ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S AT THE COAST...TO THE 80S AND 90S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY
THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NOT BY MUCH...THUS WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST...BUT WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE N AND E BAY
HILLS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. INITIALLY TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH BUT RAPIDLY
PLUMMET AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CRANKS UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DRYING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED DUE TO THE WET FUELS. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT FINE FUELS
MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DRY THINGS
BACK OUT. FUELS MAY RETURN TO CRITICAL LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK.
NONE THE LESS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHER;Y SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. VFR CONDTITIONS EXPECTED.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:13 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 010354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND
SEASONAL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
HOTTER AND DRIER DAYS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. SLOW
COOLING MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BEACHES ON SUNDAY...THEN SPREAD INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. WIND OBS ARE SHOWING SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK COASTAL EDDY
SPINNING UP JUST AS HI-RES MODELS PREDICTED...SO FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
WESTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. COLD AIR
FILTERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BEING PUSHED OFF THE COAST. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG BEFORE CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PEAK
THURSDAY MORNING AT AROUND -10 MB SAN-TPH. WIND GUSTS DURING THE
PEAK WILL BE AROUND 35-45 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS
IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY...AS WELL AS ON THE FAVORED
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICKING UP THU EVENING WITH A
SECOND WEAKER PEAK FRI MORNING. MUCH WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.

ALONG WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOME ON SATURDAY...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM DUE TO THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S LIKELY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S. MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TREND MORE ONSHORE...WITH THE MOST
NOTABLE COOLING ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL COOLING CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WITH
CIGS AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS BY 01/05-08Z. MOST CIGS WILL BE
700-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN
FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN
BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z WED...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF VIS BELOW 1 MI.
MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z WED. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST EARLIER WEDNESDAY EVENING...BETWEEN 02/03-06Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID
TEENS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...PG






000
FXUS65 KPSR 010319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING...WITH AZ ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY AND UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND
AZ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE RATHER LOW AND GENLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FORECASTS
IN FINE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 010319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING...WITH AZ ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY AND UNDER DRY WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND
AZ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE RATHER LOW AND GENLY RANGED
FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. FORECASTS
IN FINE SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WILL FAVOR
NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES BUT OFTEN WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ













000
FXUS66 KLOX 010305
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 010305
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 010305
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 010305
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...VERY QUIET EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. LATEST
AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED NEAR 700 FEET.
SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOW ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/FOG CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST (MAINLY VANDENBERG/LOMPOC AREA)...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EDDY
SPINNING UP WHICH COULD PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT IS MODERATE AT BEST...BUT WILL NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

DID ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE EARLIER TO TWEAK SOME WIND AND CLOUD WORDING
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/800 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE) FROM
VENTURA TO MALIBU AND OUT TO THE ISLAND. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT...AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 302320
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
420 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN
ADDITION...THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER.
MAY STILL SEE PATCHY CLOUDS TONIGHT...YET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 20C AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE
COASTLINE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHEN MID/UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WILL IMPACT THE URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHER IN ELEVATION.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER INLAND AREAS IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETURN ALONG THE COAST
BY SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE N AND E BAY
HILLS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. INITIALLY TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH BUT RAPIDLY
PLUMMET AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CRANKS UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DRYING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED DUE TO THE WET FUELS. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT FINE FUELS
MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DRY THINGS
BACK OUT. FUELS MAY RETURN TO CRITICAL LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK.
NONE THE LESS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT. AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PLACE
REPORTING CEILINGS IS THE MONTEREY AIRPORT...AND EVEN THE STUBBORN
CLOUDS THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
BECOMING VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:22 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 302320
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
420 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN
ADDITION...THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER.
MAY STILL SEE PATCHY CLOUDS TONIGHT...YET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 20C AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE
COASTLINE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHEN MID/UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WILL IMPACT THE URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHER IN ELEVATION.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER INLAND AREAS IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETURN ALONG THE COAST
BY SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE N AND E BAY
HILLS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. INITIALLY TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH BUT RAPIDLY
PLUMMET AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CRANKS UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DRYING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED DUE TO THE WET FUELS. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT FINE FUELS
MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DRY THINGS
BACK OUT. FUELS MAY RETURN TO CRITICAL LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK.
NONE THE LESS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT. AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PLACE
REPORTING CEILINGS IS THE MONTEREY AIRPORT...AND EVEN THE STUBBORN
CLOUDS THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
BECOMING VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:22 PM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 302318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 302318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 302318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 302318 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/2315Z...

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2245Z WAS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS TO KSMX...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AFTER 11Z.

KBUR...OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KEKA 302239
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
339 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED PASSED THE
AREA LAST NIGHT GUSTY WINDS HAVE SET UP ALONG THE COAST AND SKIES
HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COLDEST SO FAR
THIS FALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE RIDGETOPS...BUT THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.
MOST VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BUT TRINITY COUNTY SHOULD SEE
A FEW OF THE COLDEST VALLEYS DROP INTO THE MID 30`S WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOME FROST TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE NOT DROPPED YET. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO THE
WINDS WILL NEED TO DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AND THIS CAUSE A FEW
AREAS TO STAY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE
FROST ADVISORY TO GET THE WORD OUT EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AROUND HUMBOLDT AND ARCATA BAY
AS WELL AS THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE COAST CLEAR.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY. THURSDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU TUE)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST. STP

&&

.AVIATION....MORNING CLOUD COVER QUICKLY SCATTERED MAKING FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTERNOON WINDS BECAME
GUSTY AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THIS SETUP, OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT KEEPING NW CALIFORNIA MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT MAKING
WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE AND GUSTY ALOFT. KML

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTERACTED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND STRENGTHENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 18Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THERE
WAS ONLY A SLIVER OF ASCAT DATA AVAILABLE FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
WHICH SHOWED WINDS IN LOWER TO MID 20 KT RANGE. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING WAS CONTINUED FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AS GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. NEVER THE LESS, SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL EASE STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSES THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. OVER
THE WEEKEND TWO SEPARATE LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS...ONE OUT OF THE NW AND THE OTHER OUT OF THE SW.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERIES ON RIDGETOPS EACH NIGHT AND LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FALLING INTO THE TEENS OR POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL LIKELY REDUCING THE RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS CURRENTLY REDUCED. THUS ONLY A
HEADLINE FOR THE WIND AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MKK/RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 302117
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
217 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN
ADDITION...THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER.
MAY STILL SEE PATCHY CLOUDS TONIGHT...YET MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 20C AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE
COASTLINE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHEN MID/UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WILL IMPACT THE URBAN AREAS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FURTHER INLAND AND HIGHER IN ELEVATION.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER INLAND AREAS IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETURN ALONG THE COAST
BY SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 2:15 PM PDT TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE N AND E BAY
HILLS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. INITIALLY TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH BUT RAPIDLY
PLUMMET AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CRANKS UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DRYING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED DUE TO THE WET FUELS. THE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT FINE FUELS
MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DRY THINGS
BACK OUT. FUELS MAY RETURN TO CRITICAL LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK.
NONE THE LESS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID WEEK LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FILLED
IN ACROSS SF BAY SO BURN OFF TAKING A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. NW
FLOW REINFORCING CLOUDS ACROSS MRY BAY THRU NOON. OTHERWISE VFR.
LIGHT SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EXCEPT SRN MRY BAY DURING THE
EVENING WHICH WOULD LIKELY CLEAR OUT LATER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR SHORTLY. THEN VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NW FLOW BRINGING MORE STRATUS INTO
MRY BAY. SNS TO STAY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THRU AROUND NOON MRY.
CIGS LOOK TO COME BACK BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
THE INCREASING NORTH GRADIENT CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS OFFSHORE FLOW
TO THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: MM

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KREV 302116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST AND BRING A WARMING TREND
STARTING THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA WILL
BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. FLAT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME POST-
FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NV.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE AND INTO WESTERN MONO COUNTY FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

ON WEDNESDAY, STRONGER INVERSION SETTING UP WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES WITH HIGHS UNLIKELY TO REACH 70
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE TAHOE BASIN WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS DUE TO THIS INVERSION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS
OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING THE MASON AND SMITH VALLEYS,
LOVELOCK-FALLON VICINITY, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OUTLYING AREAS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY
COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS NOT PROJECTED, ANYONE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN GARDENS OR FARM LANDS SHOULD CONSIDER
TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT THEM FROM COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST EDGES EAST INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY
NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH COOL NIGHTS THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN
NV, OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING DRIER AIR MASS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA INCLUDING KTRK WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IF ANY FOG
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEEKEND
RAIN EVENT, IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND SHALLOWER WITH QUICKER
DISSIPATION WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT BECOME EAST WEDNESDAY AFTN-EARLY
EVE ESPECIALLY FOR KRNO-KCXP, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 302116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST AND BRING A WARMING TREND
STARTING THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA WILL
BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. FLAT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME POST-
FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NV.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE AND INTO WESTERN MONO COUNTY FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

ON WEDNESDAY, STRONGER INVERSION SETTING UP WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES WITH HIGHS UNLIKELY TO REACH 70
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE TAHOE BASIN WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS DUE TO THIS INVERSION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS
OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING THE MASON AND SMITH VALLEYS,
LOVELOCK-FALLON VICINITY, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OUTLYING AREAS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY
COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS NOT PROJECTED, ANYONE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN GARDENS OR FARM LANDS SHOULD CONSIDER
TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT THEM FROM COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST EDGES EAST INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY
NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH COOL NIGHTS THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN
NV, OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING DRIER AIR MASS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA INCLUDING KTRK WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IF ANY FOG
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEEKEND
RAIN EVENT, IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND SHALLOWER WITH QUICKER
DISSIPATION WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT BECOME EAST WEDNESDAY AFTN-EARLY
EVE ESPECIALLY FOR KRNO-KCXP, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 302116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST AND BRING A WARMING TREND
STARTING THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA WILL
BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. FLAT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME POST-
FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NV.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE AND INTO WESTERN MONO COUNTY FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

ON WEDNESDAY, STRONGER INVERSION SETTING UP WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES WITH HIGHS UNLIKELY TO REACH 70
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE TAHOE BASIN WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS DUE TO THIS INVERSION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS
OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING THE MASON AND SMITH VALLEYS,
LOVELOCK-FALLON VICINITY, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OUTLYING AREAS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY
COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS NOT PROJECTED, ANYONE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN GARDENS OR FARM LANDS SHOULD CONSIDER
TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT THEM FROM COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST EDGES EAST INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY
NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH COOL NIGHTS THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN
NV, OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING DRIER AIR MASS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA INCLUDING KTRK WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IF ANY FOG
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEEKEND
RAIN EVENT, IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND SHALLOWER WITH QUICKER
DISSIPATION WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT BECOME EAST WEDNESDAY AFTN-EARLY
EVE ESPECIALLY FOR KRNO-KCXP, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 302116
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST AND BRING A WARMING TREND
STARTING THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA WILL
BRING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT. FLAT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME POST-
FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THE MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NV.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE AND INTO WESTERN MONO COUNTY FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

ON WEDNESDAY, STRONGER INVERSION SETTING UP WITH LOW LEVEL EAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES WITH HIGHS UNLIKELY TO REACH 70
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE TAHOE BASIN WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS DUE TO THIS INVERSION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS
OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING THE MASON AND SMITH VALLEYS,
LOVELOCK-FALLON VICINITY, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OUTLYING AREAS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY
COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. WHILE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS NOT PROJECTED, ANYONE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN GARDENS OR FARM LANDS SHOULD CONSIDER
TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT THEM FROM COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST EDGES EAST INTO CALIFORNIA. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY
NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH COOL NIGHTS THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON WEATHER OVER EASTERN CA-WESTERN
NV, OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGING DRIER AIR MASS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN VALLEYS NEAR THE
SIERRA INCLUDING KTRK WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IF ANY FOG
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEEKEND
RAIN EVENT, IT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND SHALLOWER WITH QUICKER
DISSIPATION WED MORNING.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT BECOME EAST WEDNESDAY AFTN-EARLY
EVE ESPECIALLY FOR KRNO-KCXP, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSTO 302105
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
205 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running just a few degrees warmer today than this
time yesterday with mostly sunny skies. A weak short wave is
beginning to clip northern California which will bring some
cloudiness for the northern mountains and northern Sierra. North
winds will begin to increase later this afternoon/evening as the
wave brushes through. Strong high pressure will then build behind
the shortwave, which will further increase surface pressure
gradients. This will allow winds to become breezy to locally windy
across the northern mountains and northern Sierra slopes, and also
along the western side of the Sacramento Valley and foothills
beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday morning.
Winds are expected to decrease Thursday but light north winds will
continue through the end of the week.

Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer Wednesday and trend
upward through the rest of the week as warm, dry winds and a much
warmer air mass influences the region.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday. Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 302105
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
205 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running just a few degrees warmer today than this
time yesterday with mostly sunny skies. A weak short wave is
beginning to clip northern California which will bring some
cloudiness for the northern mountains and northern Sierra. North
winds will begin to increase later this afternoon/evening as the
wave brushes through. Strong high pressure will then build behind
the shortwave, which will further increase surface pressure
gradients. This will allow winds to become breezy to locally windy
across the northern mountains and northern Sierra slopes, and also
along the western side of the Sacramento Valley and foothills
beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday morning.
Winds are expected to decrease Thursday but light north winds will
continue through the end of the week.

Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer Wednesday and trend
upward through the rest of the week as warm, dry winds and a much
warmer air mass influences the region.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Strong, warm high pressure will continue to sit over Northern
California, bringing well above normal temperatures for the
weekend and into early next week. The peak of the heat looks to be
Saturday, before the ridge flattens out a bit for Sunday and
Monday allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Light north winds
will continue to dry out the region through Monday. Models are
hinting at a weak closed low off the coast early next week which
could bring some additional cooling for Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday. Winds will peak Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS66 KLOX 302100
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302100
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302100
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 302100
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.  SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THOUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS.  THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WAS BUMPED UP A BIT... ESPECIALLY IN THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN AND IN THE SAN FERNANDO AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEYS.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
OVERALL BUT MORE LIKELY IT INDICATES THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL SET UP
SOONER.  THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY WIPE OUT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK SO JUST A FEW
NUDGES AND TWEAKS WERE APPLIED IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES.  GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO THE PEAK HEAT COULD EASILY SHIFT FURTHER
OUT.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHAT COMES NEXT ONCE
THIS COMING HEAT EVENT CONCLUDES.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP CLOSELY ON THE HEELS
OF THIS EVENT AND IN TIME FOR A SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW.  THE OTHER
SOLUTION BRINGS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS DICHOTOMY IN THE GUIDANCE HAS
EXISTED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW BUT THE RESOLUTION SHOULD COME SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AS MENTIONED... THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN HOTTER LONGER.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SO THE
MARINE PUSH MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
OFFSHORE EVENT SO THERE MAY BE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES FALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, HOWEVER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 25-30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
FIRE WEATHER...WOFFORD
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KSGX 302048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND WESTERN VALLEYS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING. FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER
DAYS...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ERADICATES THE MARINE LAYER. STILL QUITE HOT ON
SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME SLOW COOLING ALONG THE COAST. GRADUALLY COOLING
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COASTAL EDDY SPINNING UP
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD BRING BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SOME DECENT WARMING HAS TAKEN
PLACE TODAY DUE TO HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 1 PM ARE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TREND A
LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE. THUS...SOME OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS MAY START TO SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS...AS LOCAL
WRF INDICATES 850 MB NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30 KT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS LOOK TO PEAK THURSDAY
MORNING...AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW 8-10 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO
TO TONOPAH...AND 11-13 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. CANSAC_WRF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS. THE LOCAL WRF IS WEAKER WITH THE WINDS...BUT STILL SHOWS
35-40 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. ALSO...A RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. STRATUS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN ORANGE COUNTY BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ALONG THE COAST...WITH DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER
DAYS...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW MILES INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.
THIS TRANSLATES TO DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS
AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF
THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS...THE SANTA ANA  MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THERE
IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND ONSHORE...WITH SLOW COOLING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. HOWEVER...INITIALLY ON SUNDAY IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY REACHING COASTAL
AIRPORTS INCLUDING KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...AND KSNA
AFTER 08Z. MOST CIGS WILL BE 700-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND
OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z WED...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF VIS BELOW 1 MI. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z WED.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID
TEENS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
FIRE WEATHER...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 302048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND WESTERN VALLEYS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING. FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER
DAYS...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ERADICATES THE MARINE LAYER. STILL QUITE HOT ON
SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME SLOW COOLING ALONG THE COAST. GRADUALLY COOLING
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COASTAL EDDY SPINNING UP
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD BRING BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SOME DECENT WARMING HAS TAKEN
PLACE TODAY DUE TO HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 1 PM ARE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TREND A
LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE. THUS...SOME OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS MAY START TO SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS...AS LOCAL
WRF INDICATES 850 MB NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30 KT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS LOOK TO PEAK THURSDAY
MORNING...AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW 8-10 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO
TO TONOPAH...AND 11-13 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. CANSAC_WRF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS. THE LOCAL WRF IS WEAKER WITH THE WINDS...BUT STILL SHOWS
35-40 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. ALSO...A RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. STRATUS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN ORANGE COUNTY BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ALONG THE COAST...WITH DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER
DAYS...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW MILES INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.
THIS TRANSLATES TO DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS
AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF
THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS...THE SANTA ANA  MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THERE
IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND ONSHORE...WITH SLOW COOLING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. HOWEVER...INITIALLY ON SUNDAY IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY REACHING COASTAL
AIRPORTS INCLUDING KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...AND KSNA
AFTER 08Z. MOST CIGS WILL BE 700-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND
OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z WED...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF VIS BELOW 1 MI. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z WED.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID
TEENS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
FIRE WEATHER...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 302048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND WESTERN VALLEYS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING. FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER
DAYS...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ERADICATES THE MARINE LAYER. STILL QUITE HOT ON
SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME SLOW COOLING ALONG THE COAST. GRADUALLY COOLING
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COASTAL EDDY SPINNING UP
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD BRING BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SOME DECENT WARMING HAS TAKEN
PLACE TODAY DUE TO HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 1 PM ARE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TREND A
LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE. THUS...SOME OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS MAY START TO SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS...AS LOCAL
WRF INDICATES 850 MB NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30 KT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS LOOK TO PEAK THURSDAY
MORNING...AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW 8-10 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO
TO TONOPAH...AND 11-13 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. CANSAC_WRF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS. THE LOCAL WRF IS WEAKER WITH THE WINDS...BUT STILL SHOWS
35-40 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. ALSO...A RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. STRATUS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN ORANGE COUNTY BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ALONG THE COAST...WITH DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER
DAYS...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW MILES INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.
THIS TRANSLATES TO DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS
AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF
THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS...THE SANTA ANA  MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THERE
IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND ONSHORE...WITH SLOW COOLING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. HOWEVER...INITIALLY ON SUNDAY IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY REACHING COASTAL
AIRPORTS INCLUDING KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...AND KSNA
AFTER 08Z. MOST CIGS WILL BE 700-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND
OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z WED...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF VIS BELOW 1 MI. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z WED.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID
TEENS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
FIRE WEATHER...PG





000
FXUS66 KSGX 302048
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS FOR THE COAST
AND WESTERN VALLEYS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING. FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOTTER AND DRIER
DAYS...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ERADICATES THE MARINE LAYER. STILL QUITE HOT ON
SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME SLOW COOLING ALONG THE COAST. GRADUALLY COOLING
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT DAY-TIME
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK COASTAL EDDY SPINNING UP
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD BRING BETTER STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH A MARINE
LAYER DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SOME DECENT WARMING HAS TAKEN
PLACE TODAY DUE TO HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 1 PM ARE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TREND A
LITTLE STRONGER OFFSHORE. THUS...SOME OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PASSES AND CANYONS MAY START TO SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS...AS LOCAL
WRF INDICATES 850 MB NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30 KT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS LOOK TO PEAK THURSDAY
MORNING...AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW 8-10 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO
TO TONOPAH...AND 11-13 MB GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE
CITY. CANSAC_WRF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS IT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS. THE LOCAL WRF IS WEAKER WITH THE WINDS...BUT STILL SHOWS
35-40 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. ALSO...A RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. STRATUS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IN ORANGE COUNTY BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR OUT
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY ALONG THE COAST...WITH DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HOTTER
DAYS...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW MILES INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTAL SLOPES.
THIS TRANSLATES TO DAY-TIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN
THE INLAND EMPIRE...UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS
AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY...90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND LOW TO MID 90S A FEW MILES INLAND OF
THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS...THE SANTA ANA  MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...AND
THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THERE
IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAKER.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY
TREND ONSHORE...WITH SLOW COOLING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND. HOWEVER...INITIALLY ON SUNDAY IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND DAY-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MARINE LAYER MAY NOT RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
302015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY REACHING COASTAL
AIRPORTS INCLUDING KSAN AND KCRQ BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z...AND KSNA
AFTER 08Z. MOST CIGS WILL BE 700-1000 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO 1200 FT
MSL. LOCAL VIS BELOW 3 MI IN FOG COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL MESAS AND
OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z WED...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF VIS BELOW 1 MI. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z WED.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE. SLOW COOLING MAY
BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...REACHING THE MID
TEENS BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
FIRE WEATHER...PG





000
FXUS66 KHNX 302005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
105 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WHICH IS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ARE SITUATED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F
ABOVE YDAY AT THIS TIME.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...IT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. IT/S MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE
TO SLOW DOWN THE ONGOING WARMING TREND FOR ONE DAY.

HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DURATIONS OF
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS/BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
105 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WHICH IS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ARE SITUATED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F
ABOVE YDAY AT THIS TIME.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...IT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. IT/S MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE
TO SLOW DOWN THE ONGOING WARMING TREND FOR ONE DAY.

HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DURATIONS OF
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS/BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
105 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WHICH IS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ARE SITUATED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F
ABOVE YDAY AT THIS TIME.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...IT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. IT/S MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE
TO SLOW DOWN THE ONGOING WARMING TREND FOR ONE DAY.

HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DURATIONS OF
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS/BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 302005
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
105 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL REACH
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WHICH IS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WE ARE SITUATED IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEG F
ABOVE YDAY AT THIS TIME.

SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON AN UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
RH PROGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...IT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST TONIGHT. IT/S MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE
TO SLOW DOWN THE ONGOING WARMING TREND FOR ONE DAY.

HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DURATIONS OF
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-30      101:2010     56:1894     71:2010     37:1950
KFAT 10-01      100:1987     65:1894     70:2010     39:1971
KFAT 10-02      101:2012     58:1916     71:2010     40:1891

KBFL 09-30      102:1978     69:1971     72:2010     40:1908
KBFL 10-01      103:1980     65:1912     77:2010     37:1908
KBFL 10-02      103:1917     63:2006     72:2010     36:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DS/BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301836
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BY THE WEEKEND...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES COMING ON SATURDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
***MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE***
LITTLE MARINE LAYER PUCH THIS MORNING THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST DID HAVE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.  THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY MID MORNING.

NO NOTABLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.  GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A NOTABLE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OFF AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BUT NOT AS CONSISTENT AS
TO HOW IT SHIFTS WITH TIME OR HOW IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE. FOCUS
OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAT BOTH COMING AND GOING
AS WELL AS A GOOD LOOK AT JUST HOW HOT IT WILL BECOME.  WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.

***EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION***
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KLOX 301836
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BY THE WEEKEND...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES COMING ON SATURDAY AND ONLY SLIGHT COOLING ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
***MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE***
LITTLE MARINE LAYER PUCH THIS MORNING THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST DID HAVE LOCALLY DENSE FOG.  THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY MID MORNING.

NO NOTABLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.  GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A NOTABLE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OFF AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BUT NOT AS CONSISTENT AS
TO HOW IT SHIFTS WITH TIME OR HOW IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE. FOCUS
OF THE DAY WILL BE ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAT BOTH COMING AND GOING
AS WELL AS A GOOD LOOK AT JUST HOW HOT IT WILL BECOME.  WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN.

***EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION***
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1803Z WAS 800 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS 2700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES C.

PATCHY IS THE KEY WORD FOR TONIGHTS MARINE CLOUD FORECAST. THE
COASTAL TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY AND ON THE CENTRAL COAST ALL HAVE A
THREAT OF BKN SKIES AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
KPRB. AS FAR AS THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF BKN SKIES. VALLEY AND DESERT TAFS
IN LA COUNTY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (INCLUDING ZONE 645 THROUGH THIS
EVENING).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 301742
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SHORT-TERM.
TODAY`S FOCUS WILL BE ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME-FRAME
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:16 AM PDT TUESDAY...A POORLY DEFINED
1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY MARINE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE BAY AND VALLEYS ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS REMAIN AROUND 2 MB FROM SFO-
SAC WITH A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BY MIDDAY AND IN ITS WAKE A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAC VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THEN
OVERSPREAD THE NAPA HILLS BY LATER TONIGHT. NAM 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 25-35 MPH OVER THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDS MORNING. IN GENERAL THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
IMPACT SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 2500 FEET...AS WE USUALLY
NEED A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN TO MIX THE AIR DOWN. THEREFORE WONT
ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AND JUST EXPECT THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS
LIKE MT DIABLO AND THE COUNTY LINE ALONG NAPA/YOLO AND NORTHERN
SONOMA TO SEE SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM 5-10 DEGREES ON WEDS UNDER THE
IDEAL ADIABATIC/DONWSLOPE WARMING PATTERN. RIDGE-TOP WINDS WILL EASE
BY MID-MORNING BUT THEN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHERE EVEN SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW VALLEYS TEMPS
TO QUICKLY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE BAY AREA.

BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
WITH LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO AROUND 20 CELSIUS BY THURSDAY AND THEN STAY BETWEEN
20-22 CELSIUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEEDINGLY WARM
ALOFT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROMOTE WARM TO HOT
WEATHER ACROSS THE DISTRICT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT FRIDAY AS A POSSIBLY EXCEEDINGLY WARM DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

HEAT IMPACTS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS (ELDERLY
AND YOUNG) AS WELL AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL STILL HAVE TO MULL OVER POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES BUT
LET DAY SHIFT COORDINATE THAT WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. ONE
SUBTLE MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE RAIN FROM LAST WEEK THAT HAS
RAISED SOME OF THE FUEL STICK READINGS. NONETHELESS IT WASN`T ENOUGH
RAIN TO HAVE LASTING IMPACTS GIVEN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT AND THE
FORECAST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY.

NO REAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY WHEN SOME
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE COAST. LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FILLED
IN ACROSS SF BAY SO BURN OFF TAKING A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. NW
FLOW REINFORCING CLOUDS ACROSS MRY BAY THRU NOON. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EXCEPT SRN MRY BAY DURING THE EVENING
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CLEAR OUT LATER.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR SHORTLY. THEN VFR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NW FLOW BRINGING MORE STRATUS INTO
MRY BAY. SNS TO STAY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THRU AROUND NOON MRY.
CIGS LOOK TO COME BACK BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
THE INCREASING NORTH GRADIENT CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(10/1 TO 10/3) ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 KENTFIELD................97/2012.......100/2012.........99/2012
 SAN RAFAEL..............104/1980.......106/1980........105/1980
 NAPA....................106/1980.......102/1980........103/1917
 SAN FRANCISCO............97/1980........96/1980.........97/1985
 SFO AIRPORT..............97/1980........96/1980.........94/1985
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......103/1980.......103/1980........100/1985
 OAKLAND AIRPORT..........94/1952........98/1980.........95/1985
 RICHMOND.................99/1980.......100/1980.........97/2012
 LIVERMORE...............102/1952.......106/1980........106/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD............93/1980........95/2012.........97/1985
 SAN JOSE.................97/1980........96/2012.........97/1985
 GILROY..................104/2001.......107/1980........106/1980

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION.................10/1...........10/2............10/3...
 MONTEREY................103/1980.......101/1980.........96/1985
 SANTA CRUZ..............102/1965.......102/1980........102/1980
 SALINAS.................104/1980.......100/1980.........97/1985
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........105/1980.......103/1980.........99/1985
 KING CITY...............109/1980.......107/1980........102/1980

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:59 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS OFFSHORE FLOW
TO THE AREA.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
CLIMATE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 301717
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than this time
yesterday with lower humidities, and a few high clouds are
translating over the area from a weak weather system. No updates
made to the forecast this morning.

.Previous Discussion...
Similar conditions to Monday are expected across the interior of
NorCal. Another short-wave is forecast to clip the region this
evening bringing some more clouds to the northern mountains and
northern Sierra. Behind this wave, strong high pressure is
forecast to begin building into the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the northerly surface pressure
gradient increases over the region. Winds will become breezy to
locally windy across interior NorCal. High temperatures will warm
by several degrees for most locations into the mid 80s for the
valley and 60s to lower 70s for the mountains.

The winds will be lighter by Thursday and temperatures will
continue to warm to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure builds further over the region.

Hot and dry pattern continues into early next week with high
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 301717
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than this time
yesterday with lower humidities, and a few high clouds are
translating over the area from a weak weather system. No updates
made to the forecast this morning.

.Previous Discussion...
Similar conditions to Monday are expected across the interior of
NorCal. Another short-wave is forecast to clip the region this
evening bringing some more clouds to the northern mountains and
northern Sierra. Behind this wave, strong high pressure is
forecast to begin building into the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the northerly surface pressure
gradient increases over the region. Winds will become breezy to
locally windy across interior NorCal. High temperatures will warm
by several degrees for most locations into the mid 80s for the
valley and 60s to lower 70s for the mountains.

The winds will be lighter by Thursday and temperatures will
continue to warm to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure builds further over the region.

Hot and dry pattern continues into early next week with high
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 301717
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than this time
yesterday with lower humidities, and a few high clouds are
translating over the area from a weak weather system. No updates
made to the forecast this morning.

.Previous Discussion...
Similar conditions to Monday are expected across the interior of
NorCal. Another short-wave is forecast to clip the region this
evening bringing some more clouds to the northern mountains and
northern Sierra. Behind this wave, strong high pressure is
forecast to begin building into the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the northerly surface pressure
gradient increases over the region. Winds will become breezy to
locally windy across interior NorCal. High temperatures will warm
by several degrees for most locations into the mid 80s for the
valley and 60s to lower 70s for the mountains.

The winds will be lighter by Thursday and temperatures will
continue to warm to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure builds further over the region.

Hot and dry pattern continues into early next week with high
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 301717
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1017 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather this coming week with breezy northerly
winds during the middle of the week as high pressure rebuilds
across the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than this time
yesterday with lower humidities, and a few high clouds are
translating over the area from a weak weather system. No updates
made to the forecast this morning.

.Previous Discussion...
Similar conditions to Monday are expected across the interior of
NorCal. Another short-wave is forecast to clip the region this
evening bringing some more clouds to the northern mountains and
northern Sierra. Behind this wave, strong high pressure is
forecast to begin building into the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the northerly surface pressure
gradient increases over the region. Winds will become breezy to
locally windy across interior NorCal. High temperatures will warm
by several degrees for most locations into the mid 80s for the
valley and 60s to lower 70s for the mountains.

The winds will be lighter by Thursday and temperatures will
continue to warm to around 90 degrees in the valley as high
pressure builds further over the region.

Hot and dry pattern continues into early next week with high
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Mainly northerly winds increasing
today with sustained surface winds 10 to 25 knots higher
terrain and west side of the Sacramento valley beginning after 06z
Wednesday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









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