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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 290004
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
504 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:45 PM PDT Tuesday...Current observed
temperatures are ranging wildly this afternoon with 97F at
Livermore and 59F at Monterey. Several unofficial sensors are
also reporting temperatures at or above 100F throughout the inland
valleys to the north, east, and south of the Bay Area. This large
temperature gradient is the result of a broad 595DM ridge over the
Four Corners region warming from the east and cool marine air
cooling from the west, with a thermal trough in between. As of
2PM, temperatures are 2 to 6 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday with slightly more cooling seen further inland than near
the coast.

Visible satellite shows a thinly veiled marine layer across much
of coastal California this afternoon. Portions of this layer will
mix out into the afternoon before the layer deepens slightly late this
evening before pushing inland overnight. Patchy dense fog and
drizzle will again be possible for coastal areas tomorrow morning,
as well as all of the remaining mornings of this week.

The Four Corners ridge is modeled to gradually become flat and
weakened over the central CONUS through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will cool aloft as a result and lead to a
cooling trend at the surface with temperatures bottoming out on
Saturday. Temperatures will shift from the above average to
below average from today to Saturday by a few to several degrees
with the largest difference seen further inland.

Locally, the models show a relatively quiet pattern through the
next several days. A weak mean trough with an unimpressive
embedded disturbance will form over California/Oregon late in the
week into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
central CONUS. This will likely lead to moderated near normal
values and fair weather for Sunday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:59 PM PDT Tuesday...Mainly clear skies prevail
this afternoon with the exception of areas of coastal stratus
along the coast. The marine layer remains shallow at around 1000
feet. The marine layer is anticipated to deepen slightly overnight
as a weak trough moves over the region resulting in more stratus
coverage over area terminals tonight. Moderate onshore flow will
persist through this evening then gradually weaken overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
09Z tonight at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin
impact the terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z
Wednesday morning. West winds around 20 kt with afternoon gusts to
around 25 kt expected through this evening. Moderate confidence.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this evening with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z
at KSNS. Moderate west winds around 10 to 15 kt expected through
this evening...winds will ease overnight becoming light and
locally variable. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:45 PM PDT Tuesday...A strong surface pressure
gradient will maintain gusty northwesterly winds across a majority
of the coastal waters through at least Thursday. These winds will
support large, steep seas through late week. A long period
southerly swell will also move into the waters midweek. The
surface pressure gradient is anticipated to weaken Thursday
evening bringing lighter winds to the inner coastal waters for the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Larry


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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 282233
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
333 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will continue to bring hot and
dry conditions to interior areas of Northwest California through
Wednesday. A cooling trend will begin on Thursday as a trough
settles over the Pacific Northwest. Seasonable temperatures and
mostly cloudy conditions will persist along much of the coast for
at least the next few days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge axis has only shifted slightly east to
near the eastern Yukon border in the last 24 hours which has
resulted in very little sensible weather change as compared to
yesterday. However, a shortwave ridge in the wake of the
shortwave trough passage yesterday has allowed thickness values to
increase today and high temperatures this afternoon should be a
couple degrees warmer than yesterday. An approaching longwave
trough will push the ridge farther east on Wednesday. High
temperatures will likely still reach 100 degrees Wednesday
afternoon in some interior valley locations, but a cooling trend
will be in store as the trough moves into the Pacific Northwest
and heights fall. Temperatures will fall back to near or slightly
above normal and the marine layer will deepen along the coast
Friday into this weekend. It is possible that enough mixing may
occur along the coast to dissipate much of the coastal cloudiness
each afternoon late in the week and this weekend depending on the
exact positioning of the upper trough. Additionally, if enough
moisture can be brought into the region, the cooler air aloft will
have the potential to support convective development over the
interior mountains. Considering the pattern is not particularly
supportive of thunderstorms, only very low chances for
precipitation have been included in the forecast on Thursday when
a mid-level cap is predicted to be weakest. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...Marine clouds continued to blanket the North Coast
today even extending into local coastal valleys, a typical June
pattern. Inland areas were basically clear today (except for a few
brief pockets of fog in river valley this morning). Therefore
interior areas will remain basically clear through the forecast
period. Back along the coast, limited and brief clearing mid-late
afternoon and early evening expected along sections near the
immediate coast. However, marine clouds will once again redevelop
and push farther into coastal and near coastal inland areas this
evening through Wednesday morning. Breezy winds expected at
airfield along the coast and a few coastal valleys through
afternoon-early/evening. Several offshore eddies caused CEC and
ACV winds to vary from mostly south-west in the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds and short period seas will continue to
increase tonight through Wednesday as high pressure offshore
interacts with a thermal trough over the California interior.
For tonight, GALE WARNINGS for wind gusts to 35KT remain in effect
for the outer waters 10-60nm offshore. Northerly wind waves of 10 ft
or more will build tonight as well. GALE force wind gusts along with
very steep wind waves are expected to continue Wed morning before
northerly winds approach FULL GALE Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Strong northerly winds and very steep wind waves will continue Wed
night and Thu. Persistent northerly breezes and steep seas will most
likely continue on Fri and Sat across the outer waters.

Closer to shore and inside 10nm, primary concern Wed through Fri
will be the short period wind waves. Short period wind waves should
steadily increase tonight and Wed. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORies for steep
and hazardous wind waves remain in effect tonight through Wed. If
the northerly winds offshore reach full gale, then seas inside 10nm
north of Cape Mendocino will become very steep at 10 ft or more late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Therefore, a HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH
remains in effect through Wed night. Wave conditions may ease up
some Thu morning, before wave heights increase to 10 ft or more
again Thu afternoon and evening again. Steep and hazardous seas will
probably continue on Fri and Sat, especially north of the Cape.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday FOR PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Thursday night FOR PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png



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000
FXUS66 KSTO 282215
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. Isolated late day
thunderstorms possible over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
24 hr temp trends at 20z were running close to yesterday...albeit
there was less of a N/NWly zephyr at the surface than yesterday. Max
temps still expected to trend similar to yesterday...although the
Carquinez Strait and portions of the west Delta may be a degree or
two cooler. Still can`t rule out the potential for a record tying
max temp for DTS this afternoon...given the late "run-for-glory"
with a SW wind and minimal marine layer as air from the hot
pavement of US-50 wafts over the DTS sensor late in the day. The
table below shows the records for the rest of the month and
illustrates that only DTS has a chance/potential for a record
tying max temp today.

    June 28th       June 29th       June 30th

RDD  108 (2013)     108 (2013)      113 (2015)
City 111 (1918)     111 (1974)      112 (1950)
RBL  112 (1977)     114 (1950)      113 (2015)
DTS  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      112 (1934)
SAC  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      109 (1950)
MYV  111 (2009)     109 (2013)      111 (1934)
SCK  110 (2009)     106 (2013)      110 (1972)
MOD  111 (2009)     109 (2009)      108 (1950)

An upper trof approaching the Pac NW coast will nudge the Wrn
portion of the 4-Corners High Ewd on Wed with a weak "baggy" trof
establishing itself over the region Thu/Fri. The short-wave along
the SErn CA/Srn NV border will work its way Nwd tonight and Wed
bringing some monsoonal moisture with it and the chance of
T-storms mainly S of Tahoe. Some of the moisture may result in
some patchy cloudiness over the Nrn SJV zone...and Srn portions of
the Motherlode/Sierra Nevada zones later tonite and Wed...however
most of the T-storm activity should be E of the Sierra Crest. Late
Wed...Thu...Fri the aforementioned upper trof is expected to
weaken the ridge enough Norcal to initiate minor cooling. The
small chance of T-storms over portions of the mtns will continue
on Thu although moisture will be lacking as the monsoonal moisture
will be shunted Ewd by the upper trof. Some moisture could remain
along the Sierra Crest for some afternoon CU/TCU on Fri.   JHM

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Upper troughing regime will persist along the Pacific Northwest during
this forecast period. This pattern should result in near-normal temperatures
across interior northern California this weekend into early next
week. Dry conditions are expected, with daytime highs in the 90s
across the Valley, and 70s-80s over higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions next 24 hour period across TAF sites. Light winds
generally less than 10 knots, except for occasional gusts near
the Delta region.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 282215
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. Isolated late day
thunderstorms possible over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
24 hr temp trends at 20z were running close to yesterday...albeit
there was less of a N/NWly zephyr at the surface than yesterday. Max
temps still expected to trend similar to yesterday...although the
Carquinez Strait and portions of the west Delta may be a degree or
two cooler. Still can`t rule out the potential for a record tying
max temp for DTS this afternoon...given the late "run-for-glory"
with a SW wind and minimal marine layer as air from the hot
pavement of US-50 wafts over the DTS sensor late in the day. The
table below shows the records for the rest of the month and
illustrates that only DTS has a chance/potential for a record
tying max temp today.

    June 28th       June 29th       June 30th

RDD  108 (2013)     108 (2013)      113 (2015)
City 111 (1918)     111 (1974)      112 (1950)
RBL  112 (1977)     114 (1950)      113 (2015)
DTS  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      112 (1934)
SAC  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      109 (1950)
MYV  111 (2009)     109 (2013)      111 (1934)
SCK  110 (2009)     106 (2013)      110 (1972)
MOD  111 (2009)     109 (2009)      108 (1950)

An upper trof approaching the Pac NW coast will nudge the Wrn
portion of the 4-Corners High Ewd on Wed with a weak "baggy" trof
establishing itself over the region Thu/Fri. The short-wave along
the SErn CA/Srn NV border will work its way Nwd tonight and Wed
bringing some monsoonal moisture with it and the chance of
T-storms mainly S of Tahoe. Some of the moisture may result in
some patchy cloudiness over the Nrn SJV zone...and Srn portions of
the Motherlode/Sierra Nevada zones later tonite and Wed...however
most of the T-storm activity should be E of the Sierra Crest. Late
Wed...Thu...Fri the aforementioned upper trof is expected to
weaken the ridge enough Norcal to initiate minor cooling. The
small chance of T-storms over portions of the mtns will continue
on Thu although moisture will be lacking as the monsoonal moisture
will be shunted Ewd by the upper trof. Some moisture could remain
along the Sierra Crest for some afternoon CU/TCU on Fri.   JHM

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Upper troughing regime will persist along the Pacific Northwest during
this forecast period. This pattern should result in near-normal temperatures
across interior northern California this weekend into early next
week. Dry conditions are expected, with daytime highs in the 90s
across the Valley, and 70s-80s over higher elevations.


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions next 24 hour period across TAF sites. Light winds
generally less than 10 knots, except for occasional gusts near
the Delta region.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 282205
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
305 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Fire Weather sections.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems, providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

Model guidance and water vapor imagery showed the slow moving
inverted trof coming out of the Gulf of CA into an area near the
Mexican border south of Tucson this afternoon. At the same time,
high speed visible satellite imagery showed a mid level disturbance
moving toward southeast AZ from southern New Mexico. As a result 2
pm radar and satellite imagery showed a growing area of
thunderstorms from Tucson southward. At the same time there were
developing thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central AZ north
of Phoenix. Meso-scale models forecast gusty outflow winds to move
toward Phoenix late today sparking mtn convection east of Phoenix,
followed by a stronger outflow boundary from the Tucson area late
this evening. As a result, convective outflows and or colliding
boundaries could generate a threat of showers and thunderstorms
around the greater Phoenix area tonight, similar to last night when
Sky Harbor Airport recorded 0.01 inches of rain with heavier amounts
around the city. Our southeast CA and southwest AZ zones will be dry
for the most part tonight.

Another and perhaps stronger upper level disturbance is forecast to
move from just off the central Baja west coast tonight, into
southern AZ late Wednesday afternoon. Interesting is the MOS precip
guidance is forecasting a higher probability of precipitation over
the south central AZ, including Phoenix Wednesday evening.

More recognizable upper level disturbances, like those currently
seen on water vapor imagery 650 miles southwest of San Diego, are
forecast to move into southern AZ Thu and Fri. Timing of these
disturbances are uncertain, and with the monsoon moisture in place,
a broad brush chance approach to afternoon and evening thunderstorms
is perhaps the best approach for now. The threat of tstms will be
primarily confined to portions of southwest and south central AZ for
the tonight through Saturday period.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Models are forecasting a somewhat airmass to overspread our forecast
area, southeast CA to south central AZ, from the west this period.
Although drier air pushes into southeast CA and the Colorado River
Valley, south central and southeast AZ will still hang on to some
remnant moisture. The monsoon moisture boundary retreats east
into the far southeast corner of AZ Mon and Tue.

However perhaps more importantly Monday through Wednesday is a major
adjustment in the upper level flow pattern. Winds at and above 300
mb become broadly anti-cyclonic, devoid of disturbances, and
certainly imply a very stable subsident airmass that could kill the
threat of afternoon/evening high elevation mountain storms.

Therefore this period will be a quiet one, meaning mostly clear
skies, warmer afternoon temperatures, with just a very slight chance
of an afternoon mountain thunderstorms in southern Gila County
bordering the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Thunderstorms developing north through southeast of metro Phoenix
will likely increase in coverage (especially over Gila County)
through 00Z. Outflow from distant storms will likely affect at least
some portion of metro Phoenix this evening - most likely after 02Z.
Confidence in storms directly hitting any given TAF site not high
enough yet to include TEMPO or prevailing TSRA. However, TAFs
reflect the scenario of nearby storms causing erratic winds this
evening. There are some indications that lingering shower/storm
activity could go til 09Z. But by that point, likely this would only
be debris clouds (bases AOA FL100) with otherwise light winds.
Anticipate debris clouds lingering well past sunrise. Anticipate
southeasterly surface winds to last for much of the day with
westerly struggling to develop in the afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A stray thunderstorm is quite possible (mainly over La Paz County)
through 06Z otherwise anticipate debris clouds (bases AOA FL100)
with isolated weak showers after 03Z (mainly near and east of Lower
Colorado River Valley). Surface winds will favor south and
southeasterly directions (being stronger Wednesday than today).

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Tuesday...
Enhanced humidities and storm chances will continue into Saturday.
Humidities will trend down substantially Sunday and Monday. In fact,
minimum humidities on the low deserts will be near 10 percent by
Monday. Similarly, overnight recovery will trend down to only fair.
Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the higher terrain of south-
central AZ Sun-Tue and be only slight. Apart from strong erratic
winds associated with thunderstorms, southerly breeziness can be
expected over southwest AZ and southeast CA Thu-Sat(less so over
south-central AZ). Winds will favor southwesterly directions next
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282146
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
246 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:45 PM PDT Tuesday...Current observed
temperatures are ranging wildly this afternoon with 97F at
Livermore and 59F at Monterey. Several unofficial sensors are
also reporting temperatures at or above 100F throughout the inland
vallies to the north, east, and south of the Bay Area. This large
temperature gradient is the result of a broad 595DM ridge over the
Four Corners region warming from the east and cool marine air
cooling from the west, with a thermal trough in between. As of
2PM, temperatures are 2 to 6 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday with slightly more cooling seen further inland than near
the coast.

Visible satellite shows a thinly veiled marine layer across much
of coastal California this afternoon. Portions of this layer will
mix out into the afternoon before the layer deepens slightly late this
evening before pushing inland overnight. Patchy dense fog and
drizzle will again be possible for coastal areas tomorrow morning,
as well as all of the remaining mornings of this week.

The Four Corners ridge is modeled to gradually become flat and
weakened over the central CONUS through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will cool aloft as a result and lead to a
cooling trend at the surface with temperatures bottoming out on
Saturday. Temperatures will shift from the above average to
below average from today to Saturday by a few to several degrees
with the largest difference seen further inland.

Locally, the models show a relatively quiet pattern through the
next several days. A weak mean trough with an unimpressive
embedded disturbance will form over California/Oregon late in the
week into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
central CONUS. This will likely lead to moderated near normal
values and fair weather for Sunday and beyond.



&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported at the terminals this morning. The current visible
satellite image is also showing mostly clear skies over land with
stratus just off shore. According to the Fort Ord profiler and san
Francisco Exploratorium`s radiometer the marine layer is right
around 1200 feet deep. With gentle onshore flow expect the marine
layer to deepen and impact the terminals overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
0900Z at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin impact the
terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z Wednesday
morning. West winds are expected to reach 24 kt this afternoon
with gusts to 32 kt possible.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z at KSNS.
Westerly winds are expected to reach 8 kt at KMRY and 14 kt at
KSNS.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:15 PM PDT Tuesday...A strong surface pressure
gradient will maintain gusty northwesterly winds across a majority
of the coastal waters into the weekend. these winds will also
result in large, steep seas through late week. a long period
southerly swell will also move into the waters through midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry


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www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282146
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
246 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:45 PM PDT Tuesday...Current observed
temperatures are ranging wildly this afternoon with 97F at
Livermore and 59F at Monterey. Several unofficial sensors are
also reporting temperatures at or above 100F throughout the inland
vallies to the north, east, and south of the Bay Area. This large
temperature gradient is the result of a broad 595DM ridge over the
Four Corners region warming from the east and cool marine air
cooling from the west, with a thermal trough in between. As of
2PM, temperatures are 2 to 6 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday with slightly more cooling seen further inland than near
the coast.

Visible satellite shows a thinly veiled marine layer across much
of coastal California this afternoon. Portions of this layer will
mix out into the afternoon before the layer deepens slightly late this
evening before pushing inland overnight. Patchy dense fog and
drizzle will again be possible for coastal areas tomorrow morning,
as well as all of the remaining mornings of this week.

The Four Corners ridge is modeled to gradually become flat and
weakened over the central CONUS through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will cool aloft as a result and lead to a
cooling trend at the surface with temperatures bottoming out on
Saturday. Temperatures will shift from the above average to
below average from today to Saturday by a few to several degrees
with the largest difference seen further inland.

Locally, the models show a relatively quiet pattern through the
next several days. A weak mean trough with an unimpressive
embedded disturbance will form over California/Oregon late in the
week into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
central CONUS. This will likely lead to moderated near normal
values and fair weather for Sunday and beyond.



&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported at the terminals this morning. The current visible
satellite image is also showing mostly clear skies over land with
stratus just off shore. According to the Fort Ord profiler and san
Francisco Exploratorium`s radiometer the marine layer is right
around 1200 feet deep. With gentle onshore flow expect the marine
layer to deepen and impact the terminals overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
0900Z at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin impact the
terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z Wednesday
morning. West winds are expected to reach 24 kt this afternoon
with gusts to 32 kt possible.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z at KSNS.
Westerly winds are expected to reach 8 kt at KMRY and 14 kt at
KSNS.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:15 PM PDT Tuesday...A strong surface pressure
gradient will maintain gusty northwesterly winds across a majority
of the coastal waters into the weekend. these winds will also
result in large, steep seas through late week. a long period
southerly swell will also move into the waters through midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: Larry


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000
FXUS65 KPSR 282126
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
226 PM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems, providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

Model guidance and water vapor imagery showed the slow moving
inverted trof coming out of the Gulf of CA into an area near the
Mexican border south of Tucson this afternoon. At the same time,
high speed visible satellite imagery showed a mid level disturbance
moving toward southeast AZ from southern New Mexico. As a result 2
pm radar and satellite imagery showed a growing area of
thunderstorms from Tucson southward. At the same time there were
developing thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central AZ north
of Phoenix. Meso-scale models forecast gusty outflow winds to move
toward Phoenix late today sparking mtn convection east of Phoenix,
followed by a stronger outflow boundary from the Tucson area late
this evening. As a result, convective outflows and or colliding
boundaries could generate a threat of showers and thunderstorms
around the greater Phoenix area tonight, similar to last night when
Sky Harbor Airport recorded 0.01 inches of rain with heavier amounts
around the city. Our southeast CA and southwest AZ zones will be dry
for the most part tonight.


Another and perhaps stronger upper level disturbance is forecast to
move from just off the central Baja west coast tonight, into
southern AZ late Wednesday afternoon. Interesting is the MOS precip
guidance is forecasting a higher probability of precipitation over
the south central AZ, including Phoenix Wednesday evening.

More recognizable upper level disturbances, like those currently
seen on water vapor imagery 650 miles southwest of San Diego, are
forecast to move into southern AZ Thu and Fri. Timing of these
disturbances are uncertain, and with the monsoon moisture in place,
a broad brush chance approach to afternoon and evening thunderstorms
is perhaps the best approach for now. The threat of tstms will be
primarily confined to portions of southwest and south central AZ for
the tonight through Saturday period.


Sunday through Tuesday...

Models are forecasting a somewhat airmass to overspread our forecast
area, southeast CA to south central AZ, from the west this period.
Although drier air pushes into southeast CA and the Colorado River
Valley, south central and southeast AZ will still hang on to some
remnant moisture. The monsoon moisture boundary retreats east
into the far southeast corner of AZ Mon and Tue.

However perhaps more importantly Monday through Wednesday is a major
adjustment in the upper level flow pattern. Winds at and above 300
mb become broadly anti-cyclonic, devoid of disturbances, and
certainly imply a very stable subsident airmass that could kill the
threat of afternoon/evening high elevation mountain storms.

Therefore this period will be a quiet one, meaning mostly clear
skies, warmer afternoon temperatures, with just a very slight chance
of an afternoon mountain thunderstorms in southern Gila County
bordering the White Mountains.


&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: For the
morning into the afternoon, expect winds to favor the southeast at
the terminals, mostly below 12kt with a slight tendency to then turn
towards the west. Variable mid/high level cloud decks will move
across the greater Phoenix area with most bases aoa 12k feet and
most broken decks aoa 15k feet. May see a few light showers or virga
from these decks this morning. Once again expect mountain
thunderstorms to develop east of Phoenix later this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may move into the central deserts and affect
the terminals after 03z or so. Will not get overly aggressive in the
TAFs this early and will stick with VCTS for now. Have added in
earlier than usual switch to east/southeast winds at the TAF sites,
mostly after 04z based on expected outflow winds moving into the
lower deserts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Most
convective weather to stay east of the area today and into the
evening hours with skies to be mostly sunny. Most cloud decks to be
few to sct with bases above 12k feet. Winds will be rather light
next 24 hours and occasionally variable but favoring the southeast
to south, likely turning back towards the west this evening at KIPL.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... Temperatures will continue to cool as
moisture increases, with south central Arizona lowering below 105
degrees and even below 100 after Thursday and into the weekend.
Modest warming expected later in the period as air mass dries a bit.
Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the region with
chances for afternoon thunderstorms expected across south central
Arizona through Friday and slight chances further west towards the
lower Colorado River valley. Over the weekend and into early next
week a drying trend from the west is expected and by Sunday isolated
thunderstorms should be mostly confined to higher terrain areas to
the east of Phoenix. Any storms that develop have the ability to
produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains, especially
storms that develop across south central Arizona through Friday.

Minimum humidities through Friday will be highly elevated,
especially west of the lower Colorado River valley, with readings
generally 20 to 30 percent, and even higher across southern Gila
County. Readings will fall between 15 and 20 percent Saturday, then
down mostly below 15 percent Sunday into Monday as drier air spreads
over the area from the southwest. Winds each day will be on the
light side for the most part, mostly below 15 mph, but will be
locally breezy at times from the south west of Maricopa county and
along the lower Colorado River valley mainly during the afternoon
hours each day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer/CB



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 282113
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Highs around 100 degrees are expected for lower elevations of
western Nevada through Friday as high pressure remains over the
Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are possible south of Highway 50
each afternoon through Friday. There could be a few thunderstorms
just north of Highway 50 along the eastern Sierra Friday
afternoon, but this is highly uncertain for now. For the holiday
weekend, dry conditions are expected with temperatures remaining
above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The primary changes to the forecast today involve trying to
better refine the areas where convection may develop through
Thursday.

The GFS...NAM and HRRR all have development starting closer to
the Sierra crest in Mono County this afternoon...then move this
development farther north and east into southern Lyon and Mineral
counties by this evening. There is a bit less movement to the east
for Wednesday afternoon and evening but we also see stronger late
afternoon and early evening westerly flow that would aid in
developing convection north along the Pine Nut Mountains and
possibly as far north as the southern Virginia Range.

Overall...the instability is not overwhelming either day...but
the very hot temperatures and a weak short wave in the mid levels
is providing just enough lift to aid the development of storms.
Dry sub-cloud layers today should begin to moisten just a bit by
Wednesday. Dry storms today should give way to hybrid storms by
Wednesday and slow storm motions will also help produce some brief
moderate to heavy downpours in the strongest storms. Gusty outflow
winds of up to 50 mph along with dry lightning strikes outside of
the rain cores are also possible.

Storms redevelop Thursday...but this development could be just a
bit farther east initially. Slow storm motions should again help
produce rain in the strongest storms...even with dry air near the
surface. By Friday the model guidance begins to diverge as the GFS
is a bit more progressive with southwest flow aloft shearing most
of the moisture to the east while the NAM is digging a trough
toward California that is producing backing flow in the mid
levels. That allows more moisture to be drawn north and initiates
convection along the Sierra and into northeast California. While
the ECMWF has a little development in far northern California it
mostly supports the GFS. So for now we will leave the higher pops
out of the forecast for Friday.

Well above normal high temperatures continue into Friday with a
few records possible Wednesday and Thursday. Highs reach the
98-103 range in the lower valleys with upper 80s to lower 90s in
the Sierra valleys.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

Only minimal changes were made to the extended forecast. The GFS
is still trying to maintain or rebuild the ridge through Tuesday
while the latest ECMWF shows more of an elongated trough along
the CA coast. The ECMWF would provide slightly cooler temperatures
but the chance for stronger winds. The GFS solution supports
higher temperatures and the possibility of weak convection in the
favored convergence zones...especially Mono County...each day.

The GEFS ensemble members show a variety of solutions with no
operational model favored over any other. Thus...we will maintain
a dry forecast with slightly above average temperatures through
the extended period. Bear in mind this forecast remains highly
uncertain and confidence is moderate at best that the current
forecast will play out as stated.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening south of
Highway 50 from near the Sierra crest east to about Highway 95
through Friday. There is an outside chance storms could develop
farther north along the eastern side of the Sierra late Friday
afternoon...but there is great uncertainty in this solution for
now.

Typical zephyr winds are likely each day through Friday with gusts
in the 20-25 knot range immediately east of the Sierra. Lighter
gusts are expected east of Highway 95 except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. VFR conditions are also likely each day through
Friday except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. XX

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 282036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
136 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through
Wednesday...followed by slow cooling into Saturday as high
pressure aloft weakens and a weak low pressure trough develops
along the coast. A disturbance, in addition to moisture aloft and
weak instability, will continue to produce a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, high deserts, and
Coachella valley through early evening. Residual moisture will
produce a slight chance of afternoon and early evening mountain
and high desert thunderstorms Wednesday. Main threats from
thunderstorms are dry lightning and gusty winds. The marine layer
and onshore flow will keep coastal high temperatures lower with
areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. Another warm-up may
begin on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Water vapor satellite currently indicates an upper level wave
slowly drifting north over San Bernardino county, with a ridge
over the four corners area. Currently, radar indicates some
thunderstorms over the San Gorgonio Wilderness/Big Bear area, and
some sprinkles over the High Deserts. Meanwhile, visible
satellite shows that marine layer stratus has cleared out of
inland areas, but is sticking to the coast due to the strong 13
deg C inversion shown by the 12Z Miramar sounding. The sounding
also shows significant drying, with the precipitable water having
dropped to 0.86 inches, compared to 1.48 inches yesterday.

The wave will lift north through the day today. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows an area of 500 J/KG of MUCAPE over the
mountains, and NAM12 shows this amount of instability continuing
through early evening. Thus, hi-res models and the HRRR focus any
shower/thunderstorm activity over those areas, as well as the High
Deserts.

Meanwhile, with the strong ridge over the region today, it is hot
once again in the valleys, mountains and deserts. Temperatures
have risen to the low 110s in the lower deserts, low 100s in the
Inland Empire, mid to high 90s in the lower mountain slopes, and
low to mid 90s in the San Diego county valleys. However, warming
has been slower in the High Deserts due to the higher amount of
cloud cover in that area. Expect highs to rise to 5-10 degrees,
and locally 15 degrees, above normal today. Meanwhile, local WRF
shows the marine layer remaining at a similar depth tonight, if
not slightly deeper, with stratus/fog moving into the coast and
western valleys.

Precipitable water stays down around 0.8 inches on Wednesday, but
there may be enough residual moisture to produce isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon and early
evening. The ridge stays similarly strong over our region on
Wednesday, so the hot conditions will continue for inland areas.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Inland Empire,
mountains and deserts through 8 PM Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft
will produce further drying on Thursday, so any thunderstorm
activity that day is unlikely. The ridge also starts to weaken on
Thursday as a trough moves in over the West coast, so it should
start to cool a bit with also some deepening of the marine layer.

Cooling and a deeper marine layer likely to continue Friday and
Saturday due to the trough. Models are showing that the flow aloft
on Friday turns more southerly, as opposed to southwesterly, and
this may allow enough moisture to squeeze into the region for
possible afternoon thunderstorms/showers over the mountains. We
may start to heat up again Sunday into early next week, as the GFS
shows the ridge rebuilding over the region. However, the ECMWF
keeps us cooler with a trough along the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
281945Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC low clouds based 700-1000 feet
MSL with tops to near 1200 feet MSL over the coastal waters and
at most beaches otherwise mostly clear. Stratus will push inland
over coastal airports this evening around 29/06z with
little change in heights. Risk of low clouds returning as a solid
deck this evening is moderate-high so confidence in the KSAN TAF
timing is also moderate-high. Local visibilities at or below
3 miles in fog and haze inland edge of the low clouds is expected
around 10-15 miles inland.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly near the mountains through 29/00z
this afternoon with CB bases near 9000 ft MSL and tops
to near 35000 ft MSL along with local surface gusts to near
30 knots.

Mountains and Deserts...Isolated showers with bases mostly above
10000 ft MSL and little impact on VIS will occur over San
Bernardino County and the San Jacinto Mountains with tops to
35000 ft MSL and local surface gusts over 30 knots.
Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds today at/above 10000 ft
MSL will dissipate tonight with unrestricted VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
130 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.


&&

.BEACHES...
130 pm...Long period southerly swells will increase again late
Wednesday into Thursday, with the predominant swell 4 feet/17
seconds/200 degrees. This will bring 4-6 foot surf to southwest
facing beaches late Wednesday through Friday along with dangerous
rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will continue to produce a slight
chance of dry lightning over Southwest San Bernardino county, the
Riverside county mountains and deserts, and the northern San Diego
county mountains through early this evening. Enough residual mid-
level moisture may be around for some isolated thunderstorm
and dry lightning activity Wednesday afternoon and evening over
the mountains and high deserts. Thunderstorms will also produce
gusty and erratic downdraft winds. Thunderstorms are unlikely
Thursday, but there are some indications that there could be some
activity on Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Small




000
FXUS66 KSGX 282036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
136 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through
Wednesday...followed by slow cooling into Saturday as high
pressure aloft weakens and a weak low pressure trough develops
along the coast. A disturbance, in addition to moisture aloft and
weak instability, will continue to produce a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, high deserts, and
Coachella valley through early evening. Residual moisture will
produce a slight chance of afternoon and early evening mountain
and high desert thunderstorms Wednesday. Main threats from
thunderstorms are dry lightning and gusty winds. The marine layer
and onshore flow will keep coastal high temperatures lower with
areas of night and morning low clouds and fog. Another warm-up may
begin on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Water vapor satellite currently indicates an upper level wave
slowly drifting north over San Bernardino county, with a ridge
over the four corners area. Currently, radar indicates some
thunderstorms over the San Gorgonio Wilderness/Big Bear area, and
some sprinkles over the High Deserts. Meanwhile, visible
satellite shows that marine layer stratus has cleared out of
inland areas, but is sticking to the coast due to the strong 13
deg C inversion shown by the 12Z Miramar sounding. The sounding
also shows significant drying, with the precipitable water having
dropped to 0.86 inches, compared to 1.48 inches yesterday.

The wave will lift north through the day today. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows an area of 500 J/KG of MUCAPE over the
mountains, and NAM12 shows this amount of instability continuing
through early evening. Thus, hi-res models and the HRRR focus any
shower/thunderstorm activity over those areas, as well as the High
Deserts.

Meanwhile, with the strong ridge over the region today, it is hot
once again in the valleys, mountains and deserts. Temperatures
have risen to the low 110s in the lower deserts, low 100s in the
Inland Empire, mid to high 90s in the lower mountain slopes, and
low to mid 90s in the San Diego county valleys. However, warming
has been slower in the High Deserts due to the higher amount of
cloud cover in that area. Expect highs to rise to 5-10 degrees,
and locally 15 degrees, above normal today. Meanwhile, local WRF
shows the marine layer remaining at a similar depth tonight, if
not slightly deeper, with stratus/fog moving into the coast and
western valleys.

Precipitable water stays down around 0.8 inches on Wednesday, but
there may be enough residual moisture to produce isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon and early
evening. The ridge stays similarly strong over our region on
Wednesday, so the hot conditions will continue for inland areas.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Inland Empire,
mountains and deserts through 8 PM Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft
will produce further drying on Thursday, so any thunderstorm
activity that day is unlikely. The ridge also starts to weaken on
Thursday as a trough moves in over the West coast, so it should
start to cool a bit with also some deepening of the marine layer.

Cooling and a deeper marine layer likely to continue Friday and
Saturday due to the trough. Models are showing that the flow aloft
on Friday turns more southerly, as opposed to southwesterly, and
this may allow enough moisture to squeeze into the region for
possible afternoon thunderstorms/showers over the mountains. We
may start to heat up again Sunday into early next week, as the GFS
shows the ridge rebuilding over the region. However, the ECMWF
keeps us cooler with a trough along the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
281945Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC low clouds based 700-1000 feet
MSL with tops to near 1200 feet MSL over the coastal waters and
at most beaches otherwise mostly clear. Stratus will push inland
over coastal airports this evening around 29/06z with
little change in heights. Risk of low clouds returning as a solid
deck this evening is moderate-high so confidence in the KSAN TAF
timing is also moderate-high. Local visibilities at or below
3 miles in fog and haze inland edge of the low clouds is expected
around 10-15 miles inland.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly near the mountains through 29/00z
this afternoon with CB bases near 9000 ft MSL and tops
to near 35000 ft MSL along with local surface gusts to near
30 knots.

Mountains and Deserts...Isolated showers with bases mostly above
10000 ft MSL and little impact on VIS will occur over San
Bernardino County and the San Jacinto Mountains with tops to
35000 ft MSL and local surface gusts over 30 knots.
Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds today at/above 10000 ft
MSL will dissipate tonight with unrestricted VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
130 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.


&&

.BEACHES...
130 pm...Long period southerly swells will increase again late
Wednesday into Thursday, with the predominant swell 4 feet/17
seconds/200 degrees. This will bring 4-6 foot surf to southwest
facing beaches late Wednesday through Friday along with dangerous
rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will continue to produce a slight
chance of dry lightning over Southwest San Bernardino county, the
Riverside county mountains and deserts, and the northern San Diego
county mountains through early this evening. Enough residual mid-
level moisture may be around for some isolated thunderstorm
and dry lightning activity Wednesday afternoon and evening over
the mountains and high deserts. Thunderstorms will also produce
gusty and erratic downdraft winds. Thunderstorms are unlikely
Thursday, but there are some indications that there could be some
activity on Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Small



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 282033
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
133 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

Mid and high level moisture continues to stream into the area this
afternoon. It`s still very dry at lower levels and so far we`ve
mostly just seen a few spits of light rain, mainly mtns and
Antelope Valley. The clouds have moderated the temperatures a bit,
especially in those same areas. Still a small chance of a shower
or tstorm across the interior this afternoon and evening, though
main threat would be gusty winds and dry lightning.

Along the coast a shallow marine lyr continues to hug the coast,
mainly west of malibu and south of Pt Conception. Unless the
mid and high clouds thicken up over the coast tonight and disrupt
the marine lyr it`s likely we`ll see a very similar coverage
pattern again Wednesday with dense fog likely in some areas.

With less moisture aloft tomorrow most areas that saw cooling
today will see a rebound of temps back to near Monday`s levels.
Elsewhere similar to slightly cooler.

The ridge starts to break down Thu and especially Friday as a
trough moves into the Pac NW. Coast and valleys will see a little
cooling Thu with increasing onshore flow, then additional and more
widespread cooling Friday as the trough deepens. Low clouds may be
sneaking into the valleys by then. Highs should return to near
normal levels.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

The trough is expected to move east by Sunday and at least inland
areas should start to see a slight warmup Sunday afternoon. Models
in general agreement through early next week showing the ridge
at least trying to rebuild over the area, though not nearly as
strong as we saw it this week. ECMWF lags a bit with the warmup as
it keeps some troughing going across northern CA. Current forecast
is a blend of the two solutions, thus some warming but not as much
as the GFS is showing.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

At 1731Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 feet. The top of the
inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

Only moderate confidence extends to the 18z TAF package. A shallow
marine layer of only 1000 feet was interacting with some mid level
moisturemoving across portions of the forecast area. The clearing
this afternoon will be a problematic forecast with the marine
clouds persisting all day in some locations. The central coast
will start to be affected by marine clouds tonight and the rest of
the coast will see another round of marine clouds and fog with
mostly IFR to LIFR conditions.

KLAX...There is moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs. SCT to BKN
conditions are possible through the afternoon and there is a 30
percent chance that the onset of marine clouds will occur plus or
minus two hours from the forecast time.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 282033
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
133 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

Mid and high level moisture continues to stream into the area this
afternoon. It`s still very dry at lower levels and so far we`ve
mostly just seen a few spits of light rain, mainly mtns and
Antelope Valley. The clouds have moderated the temperatures a bit,
especially in those same areas. Still a small chance of a shower
or tstorm across the interior this afternoon and evening, though
main threat would be gusty winds and dry lightning.

Along the coast a shallow marine lyr continues to hug the coast,
mainly west of malibu and south of Pt Conception. Unless the
mid and high clouds thicken up over the coast tonight and disrupt
the marine lyr it`s likely we`ll see a very similar coverage
pattern again Wednesday with dense fog likely in some areas.

With less moisture aloft tomorrow most areas that saw cooling
today will see a rebound of temps back to near Monday`s levels.
Elsewhere similar to slightly cooler.

The ridge starts to break down Thu and especially Friday as a
trough moves into the Pac NW. Coast and valleys will see a little
cooling Thu with increasing onshore flow, then additional and more
widespread cooling Friday as the trough deepens. Low clouds may be
sneaking into the valleys by then. Highs should return to near
normal levels.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

The trough is expected to move east by Sunday and at least inland
areas should start to see a slight warmup Sunday afternoon. Models
in general agreement through early next week showing the ridge
at least trying to rebuild over the area, though not nearly as
strong as we saw it this week. ECMWF lags a bit with the warmup as
it keeps some troughing going across northern CA. Current forecast
is a blend of the two solutions, thus some warming but not as much
as the GFS is showing.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

At 1731Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 feet. The top of the
inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

Only moderate confidence extends to the 18z TAF package. A shallow
marine layer of only 1000 feet was interacting with some mid level
moisturemoving across portions of the forecast area. The clearing
this afternoon will be a problematic forecast with the marine
clouds persisting all day in some locations. The central coast
will start to be affected by marine clouds tonight and the rest of
the coast will see another round of marine clouds and fog with
mostly IFR to LIFR conditions.

KLAX...There is moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs. SCT to BKN
conditions are possible through the afternoon and there is a 30
percent chance that the onset of marine clouds will occur plus or
minus two hours from the forecast time.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 281938
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
1238 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to be above normal. Starting Thursday
there will be a gradual cooling trend into Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible through thursday in the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The monsoonal high parked over the four corners
region over the last couple days has continued to bring above
normal temperatures to most of the area. A weak disturbance has
rounded the high and has brought a surge of moisture into eastern
Kern County and northward along the crest. There has been some
cloud cover in place for most of the day over this area as well
thanks to this moisture. This should keep temperatures down a few
degrees.

The moisture has also brought some sprinkles and/or virga to Kern
County this morning...with a couple locations reporting a trace of
precipitation. The showery activity has edged north into the
Sierra Nevada this afternoon. Not expecting much precipitation
with these showers either, though with thunderstorm potential in
place into the evening across both the Sierra Crest and Kern
Mountains a few locations could see some measureable precip.

Tomorrow looks like another hot day across most of the forecast
area. There will be some lingering moisture across the eastern
edge of the forecast area which would bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.

Then Thursday the upper high will weaken enough and slide eastward
allowing for a slight cooling trend. This cooling will be enhanced
by a shortwave trough edging onshore. In fact, could see near or
slightly above normal temperatures by the weekend or a cooling of
5 or so degrees.

Other than some lingering showers and thunderstorms along the
Sierra Crest until Friday and Kern County Mountains and Desert
over the 36 hours the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Erskine wildfire will produce reduced visibilities in
the vicinity of Lake Isabella. Local mountain obscurations in
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the Central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281938
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
1238 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to be above normal. Starting Thursday
there will be a gradual cooling trend into Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible through thursday in the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The monsoonal high parked over the four corners
region over the last couple days has continued to bring above
normal temperatures to most of the area. A weak disturbance has
rounded the high and has brought a surge of moisture into eastern
Kern County and northward along the crest. There has been some
cloud cover in place for most of the day over this area as well
thanks to this moisture. This should keep temperatures down a few
degrees.

The moisture has also brought some sprinkles and/or virga to Kern
County this morning...with a couple locations reporting a trace of
precipitation. The showery activity has edged north into the
Sierra Nevada this afternoon. Not expecting much precipitation
with these showers either, though with thunderstorm potential in
place into the evening across both the Sierra Crest and Kern
Mountains a few locations could see some measureable precip.

Tomorrow looks like another hot day across most of the forecast
area. There will be some lingering moisture across the eastern
edge of the forecast area which would bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.

Then Thursday the upper high will weaken enough and slide eastward
allowing for a slight cooling trend. This cooling will be enhanced
by a shortwave trough edging onshore. In fact, could see near or
slightly above normal temperatures by the weekend or a cooling of
5 or so degrees.

Other than some lingering showers and thunderstorms along the
Sierra Crest until Friday and Kern County Mountains and Desert
over the 36 hours the forecast looks dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Erskine wildfire will produce reduced visibilities in
the vicinity of Lake Isabella. Local mountain obscurations in
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the Central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281823
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1123 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:30 AM PDT Tuesday...A 595 DM high pressure
ridge centered over the 4 corners region will result in another
round of warm inland temperatures today. Temperatures are expected
to be near to a few degrees above average along the coast (60s to
70s) and 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland valley
locations (90s to low 100s). These above average temperatures
come despite the region at the onset of a cooling trend today as
the synoptic pattern dominated by the aforementioned high pressure
ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures today should run a few
degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas. This cooling trend
will continue through the work week, with Saturday the coolest
upcoming day ahead. Saturday`s maximum temperatures are forecast
drop to a few to several degrees below average as a weak
disturbance lingers aloft. This disturbance will not be sufficient
to bring precipitation to the region, so dry weather is expected
through the forecast period. Additionally, models depict the
marine layer trending deeper from tonight onward with reoccurring
bouts of patchy dense fog and light drizzle along the coast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Fans of
yesterday will be happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-
repeat of the very warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures
at the coast. Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the
Four Corner Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB
temps will again be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper
80s to lower 100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for
most coastal locations. Potential heat impacts will be the
greatest generally over sparsely populated areas. Will also see
some clouds and patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast
with the west- to- east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported at the terminals this morning. The current visible
satellite image is also showing mostly clear skies over land with
stratus just off shore. According to the Fort Ord profiler and san
Francisco Exploratorium`s radiometer the marine layer is right
around 1200 feet deep. With gentle onshore flow expect the marine
layer to deepen and impact the terminals overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
0900Z at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin impact the
terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z Wednesday
morning. West winds are expected to reach 24 kt this afternoon
with gusts to 32 kt possible.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z at KSNS.
Westerly winds are expected to reach 8 kt at KMRY and 14 kt at
KSNS.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 07:53 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. these winds will also result in
large, steep seas through late week. a long period southerly swell
will also move into the waters through midweek. strong and gusty
northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: RGass


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281823
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1123 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:30 AM PDT Tuesday...A 595 DM high pressure
ridge centered over the 4 corners region will result in another
round of warm inland temperatures today. Temperatures are expected
to be near to a few degrees above average along the coast (60s to
70s) and 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland valley
locations (90s to low 100s). These above average temperatures
come despite the region at the onset of a cooling trend today as
the synoptic pattern dominated by the aforementioned high pressure
ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures today should run a few
degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas. This cooling trend
will continue through the work week, with Saturday the coolest
upcoming day ahead. Saturday`s maximum temperatures are forecast
drop to a few to several degrees below average as a weak
disturbance lingers aloft. This disturbance will not be sufficient
to bring precipitation to the region, so dry weather is expected
through the forecast period. Additionally, models depict the
marine layer trending deeper from tonight onward with reoccurring
bouts of patchy dense fog and light drizzle along the coast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Fans of
yesterday will be happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-
repeat of the very warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures
at the coast. Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the
Four Corner Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB
temps will again be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper
80s to lower 100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for
most coastal locations. Potential heat impacts will be the
greatest generally over sparsely populated areas. Will also see
some clouds and patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast
with the west- to- east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported at the terminals this morning. The current visible
satellite image is also showing mostly clear skies over land with
stratus just off shore. According to the Fort Ord profiler and san
Francisco Exploratorium`s radiometer the marine layer is right
around 1200 feet deep. With gentle onshore flow expect the marine
layer to deepen and impact the terminals overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
0900Z at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin impact the
terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z Wednesday
morning. West winds are expected to reach 24 kt this afternoon
with gusts to 32 kt possible.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z at KSNS.
Westerly winds are expected to reach 8 kt at KMRY and 14 kt at
KSNS.

Confidence is moderate.

&&

.MARINE...as of 07:53 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. these winds will also result in
large, steep seas through late week. a long period southerly swell
will also move into the waters through midweek. strong and gusty
northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: Larry
MARINE: RGass


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Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
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www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281813
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1113 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

.UPDATE...Clouds and isolated showers (mostly aloft) associated
with an easterly wave continue to move through nrn LA/Ventura
counties. Have had a few spits on the ground but clouds are very
high based and most of the precip is evaporating during transit.
Enough instability again today to warrant a slight chance of a
tstorm across the mtns and AV but the main threat will be gusty
winds and dry lightning. Aside from that, another very warm and
sticky day across inland areas. Mid/high clouds will likely cut
into some of the high temperature numbers today but still well
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.


.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)


GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

At 1731Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 feet. The top of the
inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

Only moderate confidence extends to the 18z TAF package. A shallow
marine layer of only 1000 feet was interacting with some mid level
moisturemoving across portions of the forecast area. The clearing
this afternoon will be a problematic forecast with the marine
clouds persisting all day in some locations. The central coast
will start to be affected by marine clouds tonight and the rest of
the coast will see another round of marine clouds and fog with
mostly IFR to LIFR conditions.

KLAX...There is moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs. SCT to BKN
conditions are possible through the afternoon and there is a 30
percent chance that the onset of marine clouds will occur plus or
minus two hours from the forecast time.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...28/1100 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281813
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1113 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

.UPDATE...Clouds and isolated showers (mostly aloft) associated
with an easterly wave continue to move through nrn LA/Ventura
counties. Have had a few spits on the ground but clouds are very
high based and most of the precip is evaporating during transit.
Enough instability again today to warrant a slight chance of a
tstorm across the mtns and AV but the main threat will be gusty
winds and dry lightning. Aside from that, another very warm and
sticky day across inland areas. Mid/high clouds will likely cut
into some of the high temperature numbers today but still well
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.


.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)


GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

At 1731Z, the marine layer depth was 1000 feet. The top of the
inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 29 degrees
Celsius.

Only moderate confidence extends to the 18z TAF package. A shallow
marine layer of only 1000 feet was interacting with some mid level
moisturemoving across portions of the forecast area. The clearing
this afternoon will be a problematic forecast with the marine
clouds persisting all day in some locations. The central coast
will start to be affected by marine clouds tonight and the rest of
the coast will see another round of marine clouds and fog with
mostly IFR to LIFR conditions.

KLAX...There is moderate confidence in the 18Z TAFs. SCT to BKN
conditions are possible through the afternoon and there is a 30
percent chance that the onset of marine clouds will occur plus or
minus two hours from the forecast time.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...28/1100 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281716
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1016 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds and isolated showers (mostly aloft) associated
with an easterly wave continue to move through nrn LA/Ventura
counties. Have had a few spits on the ground but clouds are very
high based and most of the precip is evaporating during transit.
Enough instability again today to warrant a slight chance of a
tstorm across the mtns and AV but the main threat will be gusty
winds and dry lightning. Aside from that, another very warm and
sticky day across inland areas. Mid/high clouds will likely cut
into some of the high temperature numbers today but still well
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.


.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)


GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1045Z...

At 0830Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Currently IFR
clouds/fog are impacting immediate coastal plain from KSBA
southward. Expect these clouds to move offshore by afternoon with
VFR conditions anticipated for all sites. For this evening and
overnight, stratus/fog is only expected at KLAX/KLGB as well as
KSMX (with low confidence in timing and flight category).

KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Dissipation of current IFR
ceilings could be an hour or two later than current 17Z forecast.
For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus/fog, but low
confidence in timing.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281716
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1016 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A slight chance of thunderstorms and showers into this evening for
Ventura and Los Angeles...mainly in the mountains and deserts.
Above normal temperatures will occur into next week with a cooling
trend for this weekend. An overnight coastal marine layer will
persist into next week. The weekend should see the high exit...
but may roll back in by Monday for a warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds and isolated showers (mostly aloft) associated
with an easterly wave continue to move through nrn LA/Ventura
counties. Have had a few spits on the ground but clouds are very
high based and most of the precip is evaporating during transit.
Enough instability again today to warrant a slight chance of a
tstorm across the mtns and AV but the main threat will be gusty
winds and dry lightning. Aside from that, another very warm and
sticky day across inland areas. Mid/high clouds will likely cut
into some of the high temperature numbers today but still well
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.


.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)


GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1045Z...

At 0830Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Currently IFR
clouds/fog are impacting immediate coastal plain from KSBA
southward. Expect these clouds to move offshore by afternoon with
VFR conditions anticipated for all sites. For this evening and
overnight, stratus/fog is only expected at KLAX/KLGB as well as
KSMX (with low confidence in timing and flight category).

KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Dissipation of current IFR
ceilings could be an hour or two later than current 17Z forecast.
For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus/fog, but low
confidence in timing.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281625
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
925 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through
Wednesday...followed by slow cooling into next weekend as high
pressure aloft weakens and a weak low pressure trough develops
along the coast. A disturbance, in addition to moisture aloft and
weak instability, will continue to produce a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, high deserts, and
Coachella valley through early evening. Residual moisture will
produce a slight chance of afternoon and early evening
mountain thunderstorms Wednesday. Main threats from thunderstorms
are dry lightning and gusty winds. The marine layer and onshore
flow will keep coastal high temperatures cooler with areas of
night and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Water vapor satellite currently indicates an upper level wave
slowly drifting north over San Bernardino county, with a ridge
over the four corners area. A lightning strike occurred near
Daggett earlier, and then over the past couple hours some
thunderstorms producing numerous lightning strikes developed over
the Coachella Valley. Otherwise, some sprinkles are occurring
over Southerwestern San Bernardino county mountains. Meanwhile,
visible satellite shows marine layer stratus over the coastal
waters and coastal areas, with some stratus/fog making it into the
western valleys. The 12Z Miramar sounding shows a strong marine
layer inversion of 13 deg C at 1000 ft msl, which means that the
stratus will likely have a difficult time of clearing at the
immediate coast today. The sounding also shows significant drying,
with the precipitable water having dropped to 0.86 inches,
compared to 1.48 inches yesterday.

The wave will lift north through the day today. The NAM12 shows
instability decreasing later in the morning, but then increasing
again in the afternoon over the mountain peaks of San Bernardino
and Riverside county, with MUCAPE in the 700-300 mb layer reaching
near 400 J/KG. Thus, hi-res models and the HRRR focus any
shower/thunderstorm activity over those areas, as well as the High
Deserts. Given the early morning thunderstorm activity in the
Coachella Valley, have updated the forecast to include
thunderstorms for that area and also the Inland Empire this
morning and this afternoon, and also northern portions of the San
Diego county mountains for this afternoon.

Meanwhile, with the strong ridge over the region today, it will be
hot once again in the valleys, mountains and deserts, while the
marine layer keeps it relatively cooler at the coast. Expect highs
to rise to 5-10 degrees, and locally 15 degrees, above normal
today. Mid 60s dewpoints in the valleys will also make it feel
muggy and uncomfortable. However, with the cloud cover this
morning over San Bernardino county and Riverside county, those
areas may stay a bit cooler than expected. Local WRF shows the
marine layer remaining at a similar depth tonight, if not slightly
deeper, with stratus/fog moving into the coast and western
valleys.

Precipitable water stays down around 0.8 inches on Wednesday, but
there may be enough residual moisture to produce isolated
thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon and early
evening. The ridge stays similarly strong over our region on
Wednesday, so the hot conditions will continue for inland areas.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Inland Empire,
mountains and deserts through 8 PM Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft
will produce further drying on Thursday, so any thunderstorm
activity that day is unlikely. The ridge also starts to weaken on
Thursday as a trough moves in over the West coast, so it should
start to cool a bit and also some deepening of the marine layer is
likely.

Cooling and a deeper marine layer likely to continue Friday and
Saturday due to the trough. We may start to heat up again Sunday
into early next week, as the GFS shows the ridge rebuilding over
the region. However, the ECMWF keeps us cooler with a trough along
the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
281610Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC low clouds based 700-1000 feet
MSL with tops to near 1200 feet MSL over the coastal waters and
at most beaches otherwise mostly clear. Stratus will redevelop
over coastal airports this evening around 29/06z with
little change in heights. Risk of low clouds returning as a solid
deck this evening is moderate-high so confidence in the KSAN TAF
timing is also moderate-high. Local visibilities at or below
3 miles in fog and haze inland edge of the low clouds is expected.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly near the mountains through 29/00z
this afternoon with CB bases near 9000 ft MSL and tops
to near 35000 ft MSL along with local surface gusts to near
30 knots.

Mountains and Deserts...Isolated showers with bases mostly above
10000 ft MSL and little impact on VIS will occur over San
Bernardino County and the San Jacinto Mountains with bases 9000 ft
MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL and local surface gusts over 30 knots.
Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds today at/above 10000 ft MSL will dissipate
tonight with unrestricted VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 am...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
930 am...Long period southerly swells will increase again late
today into Thursday, with the predominant swell 4 feet/17
seconds/200 degrees. This will bring 4-6 foot surf to southwest
facing beaches late Wednesday through Friday along with dangerous
rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will continue to produce a slight
chance of dry lightning over Southwest San Bernardino county, the
Riverside county mountains and deserts, and the northern San Diego
county mountains through early this evening. Enough residual mid-
level moisture may be around for some isolated thunderstorm
and dry lightning activity Wednesday afternoon and evening over
the mountains. Thunderstorms will also produce gusty and erratic
downdraft winds. The thunderstorm threat should end after
Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Small




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281605
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
905 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not counting on the Delta Breeze to bring any cooling today and have
updated a few of the max temps for today to be about as warm or a
degree or two warmer than Mon. The 24 hr temp trend this morning
showed some cooling Nrn Sac Vly and this could be the reflection of
the upper trof nearing 130W and capping 5H heights over the far Nrn
zones. However...for the rest of the CWA...the lack of a Delta
Breeze and the strength of the 4-Corners High remain the dominating
factors with the 24 hr trend this morning showing a degree or two of
warming. With the very shallow marine layer even the SW wind will
not have sufficient "freon" to bring cooling today. Similar to
Mon...light NW winds at 925 mbs are expected through the afternoon
which also suggests a persistent wx regime. The addition of a degree
or two of warming puts DTS in the chance of tying the record max for
the date...which we have highlighted in the latest SM post. The other
record sites are expected to fall short. The table below offers
additional info on max temps for the rest of the month.

    June 28th       June 29th       June 30th

RDD  108 (2013)     108 (2013)      113 (2015)
     111 (1918)
RBL  112 (1977)     114 (1950)      113 (2015)
DTS  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      112 (1934)
SAC  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      109 (1950)
MYV  111 (2009)
SCK  110 (2009)     106 (2013)      110 (1972)
MOD  111 (2009)     109 (2009)      108 (1950)

The short-wave along the SErn CA/Srn NV border is another feature to
be monitored as it works its way Nwd today and Wed...bringing some
monsoonal moisture with it and the chance of T-storms...mainly S of
Tahoe. Most of the activity should be E of the Sierra Crest. Late
Wed and Thu the aforementioned upper trof is expected to weaken the
ridge over Norcal initiating some minor cooling and continuing a
small chance of thunder over a portion of the mtns...although
moisture is lacking.   JHM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A broad upper level trough will remain situated along the West
Coast this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Dry weather
is expected through this time period, with seasonal temperatures
(low 90s across the Valley) and stronger onshore flow through the
Delta. Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour
period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and
in the northern valley overnight.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KREV 281604
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
904 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...

Latest NAM, HRRR and GFS all support convection a bit farther
north today than we have forecast...so we will update to bring
isolated convection into parts of Mineral and southern Lyon
counties late this afternoon. Will also introduce isolated
convection into far southeast Douglas County in the Pine Nut
Mountains by the early evening hours. Forecast soundings in Mono
County still show fairly slow storm motions and pwats approaching
0.65 inches. So...even with a dry sub-cloud layer any stronger
storms could produce enough moderate rain to cause debris flows on
the Marina Fire burn scar. This will be the case through the rest
of the week. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

Highs around 100 degrees are expected for lower elevations of
western Nevada through Friday as high pressure remains over the
Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are possible south of Highway 50
each afternoon through Friday. For the holiday weekend, dry
conditions are expected with temperatures remaining above average.

SHORT TERM...

Few changes are expected in the overall weather pattern through
Thursday, as high pressure persists over the Four Corners region.
Daytime temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above average,
yielding highs near or above 100 degrees for most lower valleys
in western NV each day. Highs at Reno may come within a degree or
two of record values for the final three days of June (all of
which were set three years ago). Typical late afternoon-evening
zephyr-type breezes with gusts around 25 mph are expected for the
next three days.

Isolated convection is possible each afternoon and evening mainly
south of US-50, as increased mid level moisture and instability
reach these areas. No significant forcing mechanism is evident and
instability is not very impressive, so most thunderstorms that
develop will be pulse type with slow movement. Brief heavy
rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats,
along with lightning strikes which could produce new fire starts.
MJD

Long Term (Friday Onward)...

Predictability for the upcoming holiday weekend is perhaps a little
less than normal with meaningful differences in the ECMWF vs GFS.
Therefore messaging will focus around potential for continued heat
(GFS) or potential for breezier conditions, critical fire weather to
develop (ECMWF).

For the Friday-Saturday period guidance is reasonably consistent
showing weak upper trough over N Cal but still above normal heights
over the region. Flow is somewhat dry with most of the monsoon
moisture well east of the region, so only isolated storms possible
in the favored convergence zones such as Mono-Mineral and Lassen.
Temperatures likely to remain hot with highs near 95-100 in
Western NV valleys.

Sunday-Tuesday is where we see simulations diverge, with ECMWF
developing a pronounced trough signal over much of the west while
GFS redevelops ridging over the Great Basin. I have no real data to
suggest favoring one over the other, especially considering that
yesterday the models were each showing the opposite outcome. The
GEFS 5-day means for next week are leaning toward more of a trough
situation but still above normal heights and temperatures. Anyways,
I won`t make radical changes to this forecast period but we`ll
continue to highlight potentials for either continued heat for 4th
of July or perhaps breezy and slightly cooler conditions with
critical fire weather. -Chris

Aviation...

Generally VFR flight conditions through Wednesday with typical late
afternoon and evening westerly zephyr breezes. Winds will be of weak-
moderate magnitude with gusts on the order of 20-25 kts at RNO,
CXP, MMH.

Main weather for pilots to be aware of is development of isolated
high-based thunderstorms over the central and southern Sierra this
afternoon and again Wednesday. We had a few cells develop over the
White Mtns Monday afternoon as initial surge of moisture aloft
worked into the region. Latest high resolution simulations show
storms developing after 20z today on the high terrain around MMH,
BIH with strong/erratic outflow winds, lightning, and MVFR showers.
Coverage about 20-30%. There`s a small but non-zero risk a couple
storms could develop farther north perhaps near Bridgeport and
Minden after 23z along the zephyr convergence zone. Most cells
should be on the wane after 02z this evening.

More of the same for Wednesday but probably greater coverage and
farther north along the Pine Nut mountains. -Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281531
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
831 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:30 AM PDT Tuesday...A 595 DM high pressure
ridge centered over the 4 corners region will result in another
round of warm inland temperatures today. Temperatures are expected
to be near to a few degrees above average along the coast (60s to
70s) and 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland valley
locations (90s to low 100s). These above average temperatures
come despite the region at the onset of a cooling trend today as
the synoptic pattern dominated by the aforementioned high pressure
ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures today should run a few
degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas. This cooling trend
will continue through the work week, with Saturday the coolest
upcoming day ahead. Saturday`s maximum temperatures are forecast
drop to a few to several degrees below average as a weak
disturbance lingers aloft. This disturbance will not be sufficient
to bring precipitation to the region, so dry weather is expected
through the forecast period. Additionally, models depict the
marine layer trending deeper from tonight onward with reoccurring
bouts of patchy dense fog and light drizzle along the coast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Fans of
yesterday will be happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-
repeat of the very warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures
at the coast. Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the
Four Corner Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB
temps will again be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper
80s to lower 100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for
most coastal locations. Potential heat impacts will be the
greatest generally over sparsely populated areas. Will also see
some clouds and patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast
with the west- to- east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Mainly clear skies
prevail over area terminals this morning with low clouds
increasing in coverage along the coast. Expecting low clouds to
push inland and impact the Monterey Bay Area terminals through
around 15Z before scattering out. Mostly VFR conditions expected
region-wide today with increased west to northwest winds. Low
ceilings likely to return late tonight along the coast and spread
inland early Wednesday morning. Moderate to high confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds around 15 KT to
persist through the morning. Wind speeds will increase this
afternoon and become gusty to around 30 KTS. High confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low ceilings will impact KMRY through the
morning and may spread briefly inland to KSNS in the next few
hours. Low cloud should scatter out by late morning and give way
to VFR conditions this afternoon. An earlier return of low clouds
likely late tonight into Wednesday morning. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 07:53 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. these winds will also result in
large, steep seas through late week. a long period southerly swell
will also move into the waters through midweek. strong and gusty
northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: RGass


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281531
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
831 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:30 AM PDT Tuesday...A 595 DM high pressure
ridge centered over the 4 corners region will result in another
round of warm inland temperatures today. Temperatures are expected
to be near to a few degrees above average along the coast (60s to
70s) and 10 to 15 degrees above average for inland valley
locations (90s to low 100s). These above average temperatures
come despite the region at the onset of a cooling trend today as
the synoptic pattern dominated by the aforementioned high pressure
ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures today should run a few
degrees cooler than yesterday for most areas. This cooling trend
will continue through the work week, with Saturday the coolest
upcoming day ahead. Saturday`s maximum temperatures are forecast
drop to a few to several degrees below average as a weak
disturbance lingers aloft. This disturbance will not be sufficient
to bring precipitation to the region, so dry weather is expected
through the forecast period. Additionally, models depict the
marine layer trending deeper from tonight onward with reoccurring
bouts of patchy dense fog and light drizzle along the coast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Tuesday...Fans of
yesterday will be happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-
repeat of the very warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures
at the coast. Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the
Four Corner Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB
temps will again be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper
80s to lower 100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for
most coastal locations. Potential heat impacts will be the
greatest generally over sparsely populated areas. Will also see
some clouds and patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast
with the west- to- east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Mainly clear skies
prevail over area terminals this morning with low clouds
increasing in coverage along the coast. Expecting low clouds to
push inland and impact the Monterey Bay Area terminals through
around 15Z before scattering out. Mostly VFR conditions expected
region-wide today with increased west to northwest winds. Low
ceilings likely to return late tonight along the coast and spread
inland early Wednesday morning. Moderate to high confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds around 15 KT to
persist through the morning. Wind speeds will increase this
afternoon and become gusty to around 30 KTS. High confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low ceilings will impact KMRY through the
morning and may spread briefly inland to KSNS in the next few
hours. Low cloud should scatter out by late morning and give way
to VFR conditions this afternoon. An earlier return of low clouds
likely late tonight into Wednesday morning. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 07:53 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. these winds will also result in
large, steep seas through late week. a long period southerly swell
will also move into the waters through midweek. strong and gusty
northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: RGass


Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281521
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
820 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The complicated upper level flow pattern of the past few days
continued this morning. First. The western and northern leading edge
monsoon moisture boundary (MMB) moved west yesterday. This morning
the MMB was up against the CA coastal mountains in southeast CA,
then northeast to Needles CA, then east to just south of Flagstaff.
Monsoon moisture was not excessive by any means, but on the moisture
scale it was minimally monsoonish, but slightly deeper in southeast
AZ. Compare the Phoenix and Tucson soundings for yourself and see
the difference. Additionally, afternoon convective trigger
temperatures at south central and southeast AZ above 3200 feet msl
were 5 to 7 degrees lower than forecast values, a good sign for
thermodynamic instability.

Again, mid and upper level flows, replete with perturbations
continued. Morning water vapor satellite imagery showed the slow
moving inverted trof that came out of Sonora Mexico yesterday will
slowly grind through northwest and north central AZ, a focus of
additional storms today especially along the MMB. And in southeast
AZ, a weak 300/250 mb disturbance will move out of the central Gulf
of CA toward the Mexican border south of Tucson today. At the same
time, a weak 500 mb inverted trof comes from a different direction,
from southern New Mexico westward into parts of southeast AZ.
However the 500 mb plot chart showed an odd ball very warm minus 3
degree C temp at El Paso which would imply a more stable airmass.
Scrutiny of the El Paso sounding showed it was an aberration, an
isolated temperature spike, so realistically the mid level airmass
should look the same as the surrounding upper air stations. On
another note. Models forecast another 300/250 mb disturbance, from
just off the Baja coast, to move into far southeast AZ on Wednesday
for more afternoon and evening convective storms.

So what does all the above mean?  There should be more instability
in the mountains north, east and south of Phoenix by late this
afternoon. Easterly mid level convective steering currents should
move mountain convection west toward the central deserts, with
possible convective outflows and or merging outflows from the north
and east. This has the potential to spark late afternoon/evening
convection on the south central AZ deserts, including the Phoenix
area. Some with blowing dust.

On another note. Regional analysis showed a much drier airmass over
northeast AZ and northern New Mexico that was thought to move into
AZ later in the extended period. However in our estimation today,
low level south and southeast flows for the next 7 days will
continue to advect and supply the southern half of AZ with
additional monsoon moisture. See this mornings precipitable water
imagery. The moisture rich source regions are El Paso, Chihuahua
Mexico, and the excessively moist Gulf of CA.

Current forecasts for higher than normal precip probabilities on the
south central AZ deserts and mountains, including Phoenix for later
this afternoon and evening look good for now. No updates planned.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...535 AM MST...

Numerous circulations and a few outflows are present on this AM`s
IR/WV imagery, fairly typical this time of year between inverted wave
advection, remnant convective meso-lows and gravity waves. Lingering
light shower activity has exited the forecast area to the northwest,
heading into Mohave and Yavapai Counties this early AM. Widely
isolated showers are still drifting westward on Tucson`s radar near
a localized meso-low and along the northwestern flank and deformation
zone of a larger inverted wave over Chihuahua and Sonora sampled
best at the 500mb level. Vertically speaking, the anticyclonic
circulation placement throughout the significant levels (i.e. 700mb,
500mb, 300mb) is really all over the map, with the 700mb circ east of
the Rockies, 500mb over the Great Basin and the UL centers well to
our south over Mexico.

The upper difluence observed last evening over N AZ doesn`t appear
to be as great tonight however advection of favorable ML lapse rates
down along portions of the Rim are part of today`s set-up. Several
Hi-Res models develop storms over the Rim again today with several
solns pointing to a more organized outflow intrusion from the
northeast around or post 29/00z (5 pm local) into Phoenix. While
always a concern during the Monsoon, northeasterly outflows into
Phoenix aren`t typical dust producers. What could lead to blowing
dust later into the evening would be the propagation of storm
activity along intersecting outflows surviving into the lower desert
elevations. PoP chances go as far west as the Colorado River Valley
and Southwest AZ Deserts, with drier conditions in terms of PoPs but
not much by way of humidities for the western forecast zones. Broader
anticyclonic flow and a drier atmospheric column will support much
warmer-than-normal temperatures for portions of southeast CA,
especially for the Imperial Valley today and Wednesday. Conditions
look to just escape Excessive Heat Warning criteria today, but may
develop for Wednesday. It`s tricky this time of year to gauge if
long-traveling outflows or MCVs could import moisture or cloud cover
to limit the diurnal curve, so will hold off as upstream moisture and
convective activity today over AZ could work in SE CA`s favor for
temperatures Wednesday.

Increasing Monsoon moisture levels and persistent inverted wave
breaking through the 700-500mb level will introduce deeper moisture
and additional dynamics to promote better chances for showers and
storms over the lower AZ deserts each day through the end of the work
week. Peak of the moisture and wave activity looks to be Thursday
into Friday, with significant enough cloud cover and potential for
rain-cooled air to cool forecast highs Friday across the south-
central AZ deserts into the upper 90s to low 100s. Gridded sky cover
guidance and several moisture fields (mixing ratio, humidities,
dewpoints) indicate a tight gradient lying in the vicinity of the CO
River Valley. While debris clouds are possible, increasing
southwesterly flow may prevent significant cloud cover development
west of the River and keep temperatures near normals through the end
of the week.

Beginning Saturday, low pressure will take shape over the Pac NW,
shifting the 500mb circulation further to our east/southeast and
allowing for stronger southwesterly steering flow to transition
through the area. Dry air advection from the Pacific results,
relegating the slight chances for the precip to the eastern AZ
mountains and out of the lower desert elevations. Under clearing
skies temperatures will see a warm-up, compared to those observed at
the end of the work week, and return to normal and seasonable values
by the Fourth of the July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: For the
morning into the afternoon, expect winds to favor the southeast at
the terminals, mostly below 12kt with a slight tendency to then turn
towards the west. Variable mid/high level cloud decks will move
across the greater Phoenix area with most bases aoa 12k feet and
most broken decks aoa 15k feet. May see a few light showers or virga
from these decks this morning. Once again expect mountain
thunderstorms to develop east of Phoenix later this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may move into the central deserts and affect
the terminals after 03z or so. Will not get overly aggressive in the
TAFs this early and will stick with VCTS for now. Have added in
earlier than usual switch to east/southeast winds at the TAF sites,
mostly after 04z based on expected outflow winds moving into the
lower deserts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Most
convective weather to stay east of the area today and into the
evening hours with skies to be mostly sunny. Most cloud decks to be
few to sct with bases above 12k feet. Winds will be rather light
next 24 hours and occasionally variable but favoring the southeast
to south, likely turning back towards the west this evening at KIPL.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... Temperatures will continue to cool as
moisture increases, with south central Arizona lowering below 105
degrees and even below 100 after Thursday and into the weekend.
Modest warming expected later in the period as air mass dries a bit.
Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the region with
chances for afternoon thunderstorms expected across south central
Arizona through Friday and slight chances further west towards the
lower Colorado River valley. Over the weekend and into early next
week a drying trend from the west is expected and by Sunday isolated
thunderstorms should be mostly confined to higher terrain areas to
the east of Phoenix. Any storms that develop have the ability to
produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains, especially
storms that develop across south central Arizona through Friday.

Minimum humidities through Friday will be highly elevated,
especially west of the lower Colorado River valley, with readings
generally 20 to 30 percent, and even higher across southern Gila
County. Readings will fall between 15 and 20 percent Saturday, then
down mostly below 15 percent Sunday into Monday as drier air spreads
over the area from the southwest. Winds each day will be on the
light side for the most part, mostly below 15 mph, but will be
locally breezy at times from the south west of Maricopa county and
along the lower Colorado River valley mainly during the afternoon
hours each day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/Nolte
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer/CB




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281310
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
610 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains and deserts today. Otherwise, today will be the
warmest day with a cooling trend expected through the week as
stratus and fog gradually become more widespread across the
coastal plain and coastal valleys.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

600 AM UPDATE... A little vort max is zipping through the nrn
portion of L.A. couonty. It is creating some showers and could even
produce a TSTM this shower activity should diminish by 900 am.

-------------------

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1045Z...

At 0830Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Currently IFR
clouds/fog are impacting immediate coastal plain from KSBA
southward. Expect these clouds to move offshore by afternoon with
VFR conditions anticipated for all sites. For this evening and
overnight, stratus/fog is only expected at KLAX/KLGB as well as
KSMX (with low confidence in timing and flight category).

KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Dissipation of current IFR
ceilings could be an hour or two later than current 17Z forecast.
For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus/fog, but low
confidence in timing.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281310
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
610 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains and deserts today. Otherwise, today will be the
warmest day with a cooling trend expected through the week as
stratus and fog gradually become more widespread across the
coastal plain and coastal valleys.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

600 AM UPDATE... A little vort max is zipping through the nrn
portion of L.A. couonty. It is creating some showers and could even
produce a TSTM this shower activity should diminish by 900 am.

-------------------

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1045Z...

At 0830Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Currently IFR
clouds/fog are impacting immediate coastal plain from KSBA
southward. Expect these clouds to move offshore by afternoon with
VFR conditions anticipated for all sites. For this evening and
overnight, stratus/fog is only expected at KLAX/KLGB as well as
KSMX (with low confidence in timing and flight category).

KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Dissipation of current IFR
ceilings could be an hour or two later than current 17Z forecast.
For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus/fog, but low
confidence in timing.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281236 AAA
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
535 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous circulations and a few outflows are present on this AM`s
IR/WV imagery, fairly typical this time of year between inverted wave
advection, remnant convective meso-lows and gravity waves. Lingering
light shower activity has exited the forecast area to the northwest,
heading into Mohave and Yavapai Counties this early AM. Widely
isolated showers are still drifting westward on Tucson`s radar near
a localized meso-low and along the northwestern flank and deformation
zone of a larger inverted wave over Chihuahua and Sonora sampled
best at the 500mb level. Vertically speaking, the anticyclonic
circulation placement throughout the significant levels (i.e. 700mb,
500mb, 300mb) is really all over the map, with the 700mb circ east of
the Rockies, 500mb over the Great Basin and the UL centers well to
our south over Mexico.

The upper difluence observed last evening over N AZ doesn`t appear
to be as great tonight however advection of favorable ML lapse rates
down along portions of the Rim are part of today`s set-up. Several
Hi-Res models develop storms over the Rim again today with several
solns pointing to a more organized outflow intrusion from the
northeast around or post 29/00z (5 pm local) into Phoenix. While
always a concern during the Monsoon, northeasterly outflows into
Phoenix aren`t typical dust producers. What could lead to blowing
dust later into the evening would be the propagation of storm
activity along intersecting outflows surviving into the lower desert
elevations. PoP chances go as far west as the Colorado River Valley
and Southwest AZ Deserts, with drier conditions in terms of PoPs but
not much by way of humidities for the western forecast zones. Broader
anticyclonic flow and a drier atmospheric column will support much
warmer-than-normal temperatures for portions of southeast CA,
especially for the Imperial Valley today and Wednesday. Conditions
look to just escape Excessive Heat Warning criteria today, but may
develop for Wednesday. It`s tricky this time of year to gauge if
long-traveling outflows or MCVs could import moisture or cloud cover
to limit the diurnal curve, so will hold off as upstream moisture and
convective activity today over AZ could work in SE CA`s favor for
temperatures Wednesday.

Increasing Monsoon moisture levels and persistent inverted wave
breaking through the 700-500mb level will introduce deeper moisture
and additional dynamics to promote better chances for showers and
storms over the lower AZ deserts each day through the end of the work
week. Peak of the moisture and wave activity looks to be Thursday
into Friday, with significant enough cloud cover and potential for
rain-cooled air to cool forecast highs Friday across the south-
central AZ deserts into the upper 90s to low 100s. Gridded sky cover
guidance and several moisture fields (mixing ratio, humidities,
dewpoints) indicate a tight gradient lying in the vicinity of the CO
River Valley. While debris clouds are possible, increasing
southwesterly flow may prevent significant cloud cover development
west of the River and keep temperatures near normals through the end
of the week.

Beginning Saturday, low pressure will take shape over the Pac NW,
shifting the 500mb circulation further to our east/southeast and
allowing for stronger southwesterly steering flow to transition
through the area. Dry air advection from the Pacific results,
relegating the slight chances for the precip to the eastern AZ
mountains and out of the lower desert elevations. Under clearing
skies temperatures will see a warm-up, compared to those observed at
the end of the work week, and return to normal and seasonable values
by the Fourth of the July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: For the
morning into the afternoon, expect winds to favor the southeast at
the terminals, mostly below 12kt with a slight tendency to then turn
towards the west. Variable mid/high level cloud decks will move
across the greater Phoenix area with most bases aoa 12k feet and
most broken decks aoa 15k feet. May see a few light showers or virga
from these decks this morning. Once again expect mountain
thunderstorms to develop east of Phoenix later this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may move into the central deserts and affect
the terminals after 03z or so. Will not get overly aggressive in the
TAFs this early and will stick with VCTS for now. Have added in
earlier than usual switch to east/southeast winds at the TAF sites,
mostly after 04z based on expected outflow winds moving into the
lower deserts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Most
convective weather to stay east of the area today and into the
evening hours with skies to be mostly sunny. Most cloud decks to be
few to sct with bases above 12k feet. Winds will be rather light
next 24 hours and occasionally variable but favoring the southeast
to south, likely turning back towards the west this evening at KIPL.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... Temperatures will continue to cool as
moisture increases, with south central Arizona lowering below 105
degrees and even below 100 after Thursday and into the weekend.
Modest warming expected later in the period as air mass dries a bit.
Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the region with
chances for afternoon thunderstorms expected across south central
Arizona through Friday and slight chances further west towards the
lower Colorado River valley. Over the weekend and into early next
week a drying trend from the west is expected and by Sunday isolated
thunderstorms should be mostly confined to higher terrain areas to
the east of Phoenix. Any storms that develop have the ability to
produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains, especially
storms that develop across south central Arizona through Friday.

Minimum humidities through Friday will be highly elevated,
especially west of the lower Colorado River valley, with readings
generally 20 to 30 percent, and even higher across southern Gila
County. Readings will fall between 15 and 20 percent Saturday, then
down mostly below 15 percent Sunday into Monday as drier air spreads
over the area from the southwest. Winds each day will be on the
light side for the most part, mostly below 15 mph, but will be
locally breezy at times from the south west of Maricopa county and
along the lower Colorado River valley mainly during the afternoon
hours each day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281236 AAA
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
535 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous circulations and a few outflows are present on this AM`s
IR/WV imagery, fairly typical this time of year between inverted wave
advection, remnant convective meso-lows and gravity waves. Lingering
light shower activity has exited the forecast area to the northwest,
heading into Mohave and Yavapai Counties this early AM. Widely
isolated showers are still drifting westward on Tucson`s radar near
a localized meso-low and along the northwestern flank and deformation
zone of a larger inverted wave over Chihuahua and Sonora sampled
best at the 500mb level. Vertically speaking, the anticyclonic
circulation placement throughout the significant levels (i.e. 700mb,
500mb, 300mb) is really all over the map, with the 700mb circ east of
the Rockies, 500mb over the Great Basin and the UL centers well to
our south over Mexico.

The upper difluence observed last evening over N AZ doesn`t appear
to be as great tonight however advection of favorable ML lapse rates
down along portions of the Rim are part of today`s set-up. Several
Hi-Res models develop storms over the Rim again today with several
solns pointing to a more organized outflow intrusion from the
northeast around or post 29/00z (5 pm local) into Phoenix. While
always a concern during the Monsoon, northeasterly outflows into
Phoenix aren`t typical dust producers. What could lead to blowing
dust later into the evening would be the propagation of storm
activity along intersecting outflows surviving into the lower desert
elevations. PoP chances go as far west as the Colorado River Valley
and Southwest AZ Deserts, with drier conditions in terms of PoPs but
not much by way of humidities for the western forecast zones. Broader
anticyclonic flow and a drier atmospheric column will support much
warmer-than-normal temperatures for portions of southeast CA,
especially for the Imperial Valley today and Wednesday. Conditions
look to just escape Excessive Heat Warning criteria today, but may
develop for Wednesday. It`s tricky this time of year to gauge if
long-traveling outflows or MCVs could import moisture or cloud cover
to limit the diurnal curve, so will hold off as upstream moisture and
convective activity today over AZ could work in SE CA`s favor for
temperatures Wednesday.

Increasing Monsoon moisture levels and persistent inverted wave
breaking through the 700-500mb level will introduce deeper moisture
and additional dynamics to promote better chances for showers and
storms over the lower AZ deserts each day through the end of the work
week. Peak of the moisture and wave activity looks to be Thursday
into Friday, with significant enough cloud cover and potential for
rain-cooled air to cool forecast highs Friday across the south-
central AZ deserts into the upper 90s to low 100s. Gridded sky cover
guidance and several moisture fields (mixing ratio, humidities,
dewpoints) indicate a tight gradient lying in the vicinity of the CO
River Valley. While debris clouds are possible, increasing
southwesterly flow may prevent significant cloud cover development
west of the River and keep temperatures near normals through the end
of the week.

Beginning Saturday, low pressure will take shape over the Pac NW,
shifting the 500mb circulation further to our east/southeast and
allowing for stronger southwesterly steering flow to transition
through the area. Dry air advection from the Pacific results,
relegating the slight chances for the precip to the eastern AZ
mountains and out of the lower desert elevations. Under clearing
skies temperatures will see a warm-up, compared to those observed at
the end of the work week, and return to normal and seasonable values
by the Fourth of the July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: For the
morning into the afternoon, expect winds to favor the southeast at
the terminals, mostly below 12kt with a slight tendency to then turn
towards the west. Variable mid/high level cloud decks will move
across the greater Phoenix area with most bases aoa 12k feet and
most broken decks aoa 15k feet. May see a few light showers or virga
from these decks this morning. Once again expect mountain
thunderstorms to develop east of Phoenix later this afternoon and
evening, a few of which may move into the central deserts and affect
the terminals after 03z or so. Will not get overly aggressive in the
TAFs this early and will stick with VCTS for now. Have added in
earlier than usual switch to east/southeast winds at the TAF sites,
mostly after 04z based on expected outflow winds moving into the
lower deserts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Most
convective weather to stay east of the area today and into the
evening hours with skies to be mostly sunny. Most cloud decks to be
few to sct with bases above 12k feet. Winds will be rather light
next 24 hours and occasionally variable but favoring the southeast
to south, likely turning back towards the west this evening at KIPL.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday... Temperatures will continue to cool as
moisture increases, with south central Arizona lowering below 105
degrees and even below 100 after Thursday and into the weekend.
Modest warming expected later in the period as air mass dries a bit.
Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the region with
chances for afternoon thunderstorms expected across south central
Arizona through Friday and slight chances further west towards the
lower Colorado River valley. Over the weekend and into early next
week a drying trend from the west is expected and by Sunday isolated
thunderstorms should be mostly confined to higher terrain areas to
the east of Phoenix. Any storms that develop have the ability to
produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains, especially
storms that develop across south central Arizona through Friday.

Minimum humidities through Friday will be highly elevated,
especially west of the lower Colorado River valley, with readings
generally 20 to 30 percent, and even higher across southern Gila
County. Readings will fall between 15 and 20 percent Saturday, then
down mostly below 15 percent Sunday into Monday as drier air spreads
over the area from the southwest. Winds each day will be on the
light side for the most part, mostly below 15 mph, but will be
locally breezy at times from the south west of Maricopa county and
along the lower Colorado River valley mainly during the afternoon
hours each day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer/CB




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281159
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
459 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Fans of yesterday will be
happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-repeat of the very
warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures at the coast.
Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the Four Corner
Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB temps will again
be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper 80s to lower
100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for most coastal
locations. Potential heat impacts will be the greatest generally
over sparsely populated areas. Will also see some clouds and
patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast with the west-to-
east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Mainly clear skies
prevail over area terminals this morning with low clouds
increasing in coverage along the coast. Expecting low clouds to
push inland and impact the Monterey Bay Area terminals through
around 15Z before scattering out. Mostly VFR conditions expected
region-wide today with increased west to northwest winds. Low
ceilings likely to return late tonight along the coast and spread
inland early Wednesday morning. Moderate to high confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds around 15 KT to
persist through the morning. Wind speeds will increase this
afternoon and become gusty to around 30 KTS. High confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low ceilings will impact KMRY through the
morning and may spread briefly inland to KSNS in the next few
hours. Low cloud should scatter out by late morning and give way
to VFR conditions this afternoon. An earlier return of low clouds
likely late tonight into Wednesday morning. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. These winds will also result
in large, steep seas through late week. A long period southerly
swell will also move into the waters through midweek. Strong and
gusty northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the
end of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: RGass


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281159
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
459 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Fans of yesterday will be
happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-repeat of the very
warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures at the coast.
Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the Four Corner
Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB temps will again
be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper 80s to lower
100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for most coastal
locations. Potential heat impacts will be the greatest generally
over sparsely populated areas. Will also see some clouds and
patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast with the west-to-
east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Mainly clear skies
prevail over area terminals this morning with low clouds
increasing in coverage along the coast. Expecting low clouds to
push inland and impact the Monterey Bay Area terminals through
around 15Z before scattering out. Mostly VFR conditions expected
region-wide today with increased west to northwest winds. Low
ceilings likely to return late tonight along the coast and spread
inland early Wednesday morning. Moderate to high confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds around 15 KT to
persist through the morning. Wind speeds will increase this
afternoon and become gusty to around 30 KTS. High confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low ceilings will impact KMRY through the
morning and may spread briefly inland to KSNS in the next few
hours. Low cloud should scatter out by late morning and give way
to VFR conditions this afternoon. An earlier return of low clouds
likely late tonight into Wednesday morning. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:45 AM PDT Tuesday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. These winds will also result
in large, steep seas through late week. A long period southerly
swell will also move into the waters through midweek. Strong and
gusty northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the
end of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: RGass


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www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
405 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will rise to much above normal today. Upper level
disturbance will trigger showers and possible thunderstorms today
across the Kern County Desert and mountain area. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible through thursday in the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoon moisture is making its way into eastern Kern county attm
with SCT showers spreading west. Rain will be light this morning.
We have bumped up pops across this region in response to SPC
putting the area in a general mention of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Clouds will increase through the day as well as
humidities. Concern was for oppressive heat conditions for the
Kern County Desert area. We have lowered temps a bit due to
increased cloud cover and forecast precip over the area...so we
are not expecting as bad of conditions as previously advertised
across the Kern county Desert.

Weak upper trough is stationary across Kern county and will see
clouds across the county today. The trough splits Wednesday and a
portion will lift north across the Sierra and the other portion
slides SW off the coast. We are keeping SHRA and TSRA across the
Sierra on Wednesday and Thursday. Some storms could be strong with
small hail and gusty winds on Wednesday as the upper trough moves
north then east in response to a trough moving onshore into nrn ca
by Thursday and becoming more of an influence across the entire
area Friday as marine cooled air will push into the San Joaquin
Valley through the coastal range and provide a nice welcomed
cooling relief to the SJV this weekend and continue through early
next week as temps will fall more to near normal through the
weekend and into early next week.

Convective parameters are most impressive over the Tulare Co
mountains including Mt. Whitney. Capes are over 1000j/kg this
afternoon and LI`s around -2 to -5. FZ level around 11-13k feet.
Some strong storms are possible later today.

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Erskine wildfire will produce reduced visibilities
in the vicinity of Lake Isabella. Local mountain obscurations in
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the Central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

public...JDB
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...JDB

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281105
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
405 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will rise to much above normal today. Upper level
disturbance will trigger showers and possible thunderstorms today
across the Kern County Desert and mountain area. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible through thursday in the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoon moisture is making its way into eastern Kern county attm
with SCT showers spreading west. Rain will be light this morning.
We have bumped up pops across this region in response to SPC
putting the area in a general mention of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Clouds will increase through the day as well as
humidities. Concern was for oppressive heat conditions for the
Kern County Desert area. We have lowered temps a bit due to
increased cloud cover and forecast precip over the area...so we
are not expecting as bad of conditions as previously advertised
across the Kern county Desert.

Weak upper trough is stationary across Kern county and will see
clouds across the county today. The trough splits Wednesday and a
portion will lift north across the Sierra and the other portion
slides SW off the coast. We are keeping SHRA and TSRA across the
Sierra on Wednesday and Thursday. Some storms could be strong with
small hail and gusty winds on Wednesday as the upper trough moves
north then east in response to a trough moving onshore into nrn ca
by Thursday and becoming more of an influence across the entire
area Friday as marine cooled air will push into the San Joaquin
Valley through the coastal range and provide a nice welcomed
cooling relief to the SJV this weekend and continue through early
next week as temps will fall more to near normal through the
weekend and into early next week.

Convective parameters are most impressive over the Tulare Co
mountains including Mt. Whitney. Capes are over 1000j/kg this
afternoon and LI`s around -2 to -5. FZ level around 11-13k feet.
Some strong storms are possible later today.

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Erskine wildfire will produce reduced visibilities
in the vicinity of Lake Isabella. Local mountain obscurations in
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi mountains. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the Central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

public...JDB
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...JDB

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KEKA 281053
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
353 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will continue to bring hot and
dry conditions to interior areas of Northwest California through
Wednesday. A cooling trend will begin on Thursday as a trough
settles over the Pacific Northwest. Seasonable temperatures and
mostly cloudy conditions will persist along much of the coast for
at least the next few days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A classic northwest CA summer time pattern
continues as a coastal marine layer persists with extended periods
of cloudy and cool conditions interupted by short periods of
sunshine. Interior areas remain hot and dry. Heights and thickness
values will increase slightly today across the interior allowing
high temperatures to jump a couple of degrees with many interior
valley locations of Mendocino and Trinity counties pushing into
the lower 100s. Though the ridge is expected to start moving east
on Wednesday as an approaching trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest, heights will likely not fall too much allowing for at
least one more day of 100 degree temperatures across the interior.
Better cooling should begin on Thursday and definitely by Friday
as the trough settles over the west coast. Confidence in this
solution is increasing and this will result in temperatures
falling back to near or slightly above normal late in the week and
this weekend. Additionally, the marine layer will deepen along the
coast. It is possible that enough mixing may occur along the coast
to dissipate much of the coastal cloudiness late in the week or
this coming weekend depending on the exact positioning of the
upper trough. Additionally, if enough moisture can be brought into
the region, the cooler air aloft will have the potential to
support convective development over the interior mountains.
Considering the pattern is not particularly supportive of
thunderstorms, only very low chances for precipitation have been
included in the forecast for Thursday and beyond. /RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...Similar to conditions 24 hours ago, there is widespread
marine stratus coverage overnight. Nighttime IR satellite imagery
shows that Northwest California coast is covered by the marine
stratus. The back edge of the marine stratus is about 250 miles from
the coast. Do expect low cloud ceiling, with LIFR category, to
persist over the coastal area through the morning into the
afternoon. With models showing the presence of a strong low-level
inversion, do not expect too much mixing to develop this afternoon.
The flight categories will probably be stuck in IFR. Marine stratus
will thicken tonight, bringing LIFR conditions back to the coastal
area. /RCL


&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly winds will persist through the week.
Gale force winds to 45 kt and very steep waves will persist through
the work week. Small craft advisory for the inner waters through the
work week.

The area of high pressure over East Pacific Ocean will persist
through the week. Meanwhile, a broad thermal low will be set up in
the interior Western US. The combined weather features will continue
to maintain the tight northerly pressure gradient off the NW
California coastal waters. Do expect northelry gale force wind gusts
to 45 kt, and northerly short period waves of 12 to 15 feet. For the
inner coastal waters, do expect small craft level conditions. The
strong winds and elevated seas will persist through the work week.

Forecast is still on track. Minimal changes were made to refresh the
current forecast package. Forecast confidence is above average. /RCL


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
     Wednesday FOR PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening FOR PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning FOR PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Friday FOR
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281046
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
346 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous circulations and a few outflows are present on this AM`s
IR/WV imagery, fairly typical this time of year between inverted wave
advection, remnant convective meso-lows and gravity waves. Lingering
light shower activity has exited the forecast area to the northwest,
heading into Mohave and Yavapai Counties this early AM. Widely
isolated showers are still drifting westward on Tucson`s radar near
a localized meso-low and along the northwestern flank and deformation
zone of a larger inverted wave over Chihuahua and Sonora sampled
best at the 500mb level. Vertically speaking, the anticyclonic
circulation placement throughout the significant levels (i.e. 700mb,
500mb, 300mb) is really all over the map, with the 700mb circ east of
the Rockies, 500mb over the Great Basin and the UL centers well to
our south over Mexico.

The upper difluence observed last evening over N AZ doesn`t appear
to be as great tonight however advection of favorable ML lapse rates
down along portions of the Rim are part of today`s set-up. Several
Hi-Res models develop storms over the Rim again today with several
solns pointing to a more organized outflow intrusion from the
northeast around or post 29/00z (5 pm local) into Phoenix. While
always a concern during the Monsoon, northeasterly outflows into
Phoenix aren`t typical dust producers. What could lead to blowing
dust later into the evening would be the propagation of storm
activity along intersecting outflows surviving into the lower desert
elevations. PoP chances go as far west as the Colorado River Valley
and Southwest AZ Deserts, with drier conditions in terms of PoPs but
not much by way of humidities for the western forecast zones. Broader
anticyclonic flow and a drier atmospheric column will support much
warmer-than-normal temperatures for portions of southeast CA,
especially for the Imperial Valley today and Wednesday. Conditions
look to just escape Excessive Heat Warning criteria today, but may
develop for Wednesday. It`s tricky this time of year to gauge if
long-traveling outflows or MCVs could import moisture or cloud cover
to limit the diurnal curve, so will hold off as upstream moisture and
convective activity today over AZ could work in SE CA`s favor for
temperatures Wednesday.

Increasing Monsoon moisture levels and persistent inverted wave
breaking through the 700-500mb level will introduce deeper moisture
and additional dynamics to promote better chances for showers and
storms over the lower AZ deserts each day through the end of the work
week. Peak of the moisture and wave activity looks to be Thursday
into Friday, with significant enough cloud cover and potential for
rain-cooled air to cool forecast highs Friday across the south-
central AZ deserts into the upper 90s to low 100s. Gridded sky cover
guidance and several moisture fields (mixing ratio, humidities,
dewpoints) indicate a tight gradient lying in the vicinity of the CO
River Valley. While debris clouds are possible, increasing
southwesterly flow may prevent significant cloud cover development
west of the River and keep temperatures near normals through the end
of the week.

Beginning Saturday, low pressure will take shape over the Pac NW,
shifting the 500mb circulation further to our east/southeast and
allowing for stronger southwesterly steering flow to transition
through the area. Dry air advection from the Pacific results,
relegating the slight chances for the precip to the eastern AZ
mountains and out of the lower desert elevations. Under clearing
skies temperatures will see a warm-up, compared to those observed at
the end of the work week, and return to normal and seasonable values
by the Fourth of the July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Lower confidence forecast as several competing outflow boundaries
will create frequent wind shifts through the evening, before
settling on a predominant easterly direction overnight. There is a
fairly low chance of blowing dust making it into the Phoenix
terminals and lesser chance of actual storms impacting the terminal
sites. Easterly sfc winds should prevail much longer into the late
afternoon Tuesday than is typical.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Wind shifts will be the main forecast challenge in SE CA through
tonight as outflow boundaries move into the region from AZ. Brief
gusts will be possible at KBLH, but likely minimal impact at KIPL.
Periods of variability in sfc winds will be likely overnight, then
favor a southerly component Tuesday afternoon. Periodic cloud decks
12K-15K ft will be common across the region.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the 100-110F range
by Sunday. Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the
region with slight chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The
best chances for convective weather remains over the mountains in
central and eastern Arizona. Any storms that develop have the
ability to produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains.
Daytime relative humidities will drop to 15-25 percent but will have
nighttime recoveries. Otherwise, winds will be relatively normal in
the 5 to 15 mph outside of any storm influenced winds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Nolte
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281043
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
343 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains and deserts today. Otherwise, today will be the
warmest day with a cooling trend expected through the week as
stratus and fog gradually become more widespread across the
coastal plain and coastal valleys.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1045Z...

At 0830Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Currently IFR
clouds/fog are impacting immediate coastal plain from KSBA
southward. Expect these clouds to move offshore by afternoon with
VFR conditions anticipated for all sites. For this evening and
overnight, stratus/fog is only expected at KLAX/KLGB as well as
KSMX (with low confidence in timing and flight category).

KLAX...moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Dissipation of current IFR
ceilings could be an hour or two later than current 17Z forecast.
For tonight, high confidence in return of stratus/fog, but low
confidence in timing.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF as VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM...

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281030
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies across interior NorCal early this morning with high
pressure overhead. Satellite imagery shows some mid and high
clouds associated with the beginning of the Southwest Monsoon
creeping into central California. Current temps are mild,
generally ranging from the upper 40s in the colder mountain
valleys to the mid 60s to around 80 elsewhere.

Strong ridging remains over the area the next several days
resulting in a continuation of hot weather across interior NorCal.
The marine layer remains squashed (less than 1000 feet in depth),
so it won`t factor much again today. Highs today are expected to
be pretty similar to Monday`s across much of the area.

A smidgen of cooling may develop by Wednesday in the Delta Breeze
influenced areas as heights aloft begin to decrease a bit allowing
the marine layer to deepen a bit. Heat will continue well inland
through the end of the week.

Some monsoonal moisture will be making its way northward along the
crest through Thursday of this week. Some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms may be possible, mainly south of Tahoe. Some late
day activity may attempt to pop over the northern Coast Range
beginning Wednesday as the mid-level cap erodes a bit, but this is
more in doubt given more limited airmass moisture.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A broad upper level trough will remain situated along the West
Coast this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Dry weather
is expected through this time period, with seasonal temperatures
(low 90s across the Valley) and stronger onshore flow through the
Delta. Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour
period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and
in the northern valley overnight.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
329 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through
Wednesday...followed by slow cooling into next weekend as high
pressure aloft weakens and a weak low pressure trough develops
along the coast. Moisture aloft and weak instability will
continue a slight chance of afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms with gusty winds through Wednesday...mainly near
the mountains. The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal
high temperatures cooler with areas of night and morning low
clouds and fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

High pressure aloft centered over Utah will peak today...then
slowly weaken through the end of the week as a weak trough of low
pressure develops near the California coast late in the week and
may linger near the coast into early next week. High temperatures
will remain above average for inland areas through Wednesday...
then cool to near average for Friday through next weekend.

Mid level moisture continues to spread into portions of Southern
California from the northeast early this morning around a weak
cyclonic circulation center over the Southern California bight.
This will bring a few showers this morning for southwestern San
Bernardino County and adjacent portions of Riverside County with a
slight chance of afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms over the same areas...more likely over the
mountains and upper deserts. Thunderstorms could produce numerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Moisture
will continue to decrease for Wednesday with smaller chances for
isolated thunderstorms near the mountains Wednesday afternoon.

The marine layer and weak onshore flow will continue areas of
night and morning low clouds and fog extending into the far
western valleys. The marine layer may deepen slightly late in the
week with coastal low clouds extending a little farther into the
western valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
291030Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-OVC stratus will continue
through 16Z within 10 miles of the coast with bases 700-1000 ft MSL
and tops to 1200 ft MSL. Mostly sunny skies will prevail after 16Z
except patchy BKN stratus along the beaches through this afternoon.
Stratus will redevelop over coastal airports this evening with little
change in height. Forecast confidence is moderate.

Mountains and Deserts...Isolated showers with bases mostly above
10000 ft MSL and little impact on VIS will occur this morning
mainly over San Bernardino County. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon over San Bernardino County and the San
Jacinto Mountains with bases 9000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL
and local surface gusts over 30 knots. Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds
today at/above 10000 ft MSL will dissipate tonight with unrestricted
VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
330 am...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
330 am...Long period southerly swells will increase again late
Wednesday and Thursday, with the predominant swell 4 feet/17
seconds/200 degrees. This will bring 4-6 foot surf to southwest
facing beaches late Wednesday through Friday along with dangerous
rip currents.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
307 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Fans of yesterday will be
happy with today`s forecast as we get a near-repeat of the very
warm inland conditions with cooler temperatures at the coast.
Synoptically a 596 DM 500 MB ridge centered near the Four Corner
Region will remain nearly stationary while 925 MB temps will again
be in the 25C to 28C range. This will mean upper 80s to lower
100s for inland spots with mid 60s to around 80 for most coastal
locations. Potential heat impacts will be the greatest generally
over sparsely populated areas. Will also see some clouds and
patchy fog this morning mainly along the coast with the west-to-
east gradient close to 3 MB.

Temperatures will slowly cool from Wednesday onward as the ridge
flattens out to a degree as a system passes to the north. This
will combine with a depending marine layer plus an increase in
the onshore flow. By the weekend some inland spots will just have
highs on 80s which would be a drop of 15 degrees or more compared
to yesterday and today.

Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal temperatures with
dry conditions at least through the end of next week suggesting
the ridge will slightly rebuild after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:38 PM PDT Monday...Mainly clear skies
prevail across area terminals this evening with a few patches of
stratus developing along the coast and down into the Salinas
valley. Tonight will likely be a repeat of last night with low
clouds confined mainly to the coast with cigs moving in over
Monterey Bay area terminals after 12z Tuesday morning and
scattering out early. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.
Confidence is moderate to high.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds to around 20 kt
persist this evening over KSFO. Winds will ease overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low cigs
forecast to return around 10z tonight. Light winds.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:58 PM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
prevail over the coastal waters as a result of a tight surface
pressure gradient along the coast. These winds will also result
in large, steep seas through late week. A long period southerly
swell will also move into the waters through midweek. Strong and
gusty northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the
end of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Gass


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 281004
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
304 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains and deserts today. Otherwise, today will be the
warmest day with a cooling trend expected through the week as
stratus and fog gradually become more widespread across the
coastal plain and coastal valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Srn CA sits under the west side of a very warm 596 DM 4 corners
high. Hgts over Srn CA are an above normal 593 DM. At the sfc
there is an 800 foot marine layer pushed ashore by weak onshore
flow both to the north and east. There will be morning low clouds
across the coasts of LA and VTA county and a few patches over the
Srn SBA county coasts but elsewhere skies will be mostly clear.
Temps will be very similar to yesterday with much above normal
temps inland and slightly warmer than normal hgts at the coast.
The central coast will have a repeat pattern with the interior
sections of the coastal sections such as SLOtown which saw its
daily high set at 1000 am with cooling all during the afternoon
with the seabreeze.

There is another 20 percent chc that a TSTM will form over the VTA
or LA mtns or that a TSTM will advect into the Antelope Vly from
the east.

It looks like the eddy will be weaker tonight so the low clouds
should be confined to the L.A, coast south of Pt Conception.
Better onshore flow and an moister marine airmass will bring a
return of some low clouds to the central coast...but mostly the
SBA county west coast.

The upper high will push to the east on Wednesday and hgts will
fall and onshore flow will increase. Look for the start of a slow
cooling trend.

There will be very little change on Thursday except maybe a little
more marine layer clouds in the morning and a little more cooling
for the afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

GFS and EC are in good agreement for Friday and Saturday. Both
show a weak high hgt 588 DM trof moving close to the CA coast. At
the same time both indicate a good increase in the onshore flow.
The weak lift from the trof and the increased shove from the
onshore flow should bring night through morning low clouds over
the coasts and into most of the vlys with an accompanying drop in
max temps. Max temps will fall to a degree or two blo normal for
the coasts and vlys. The mtns and the interior will only cool a
little bit and max temps there will remain above normal.

The mdls differ on the solution for Sunday and the 4th of July.
The EC is following the forecast both the it and GFS had ydy which
was a slight slow expansion of the west coast trof. The GFS has a
new warmer soln and pushes a ridge into Srn CA from the southeast.
At this time will favor the more consistent EC and keep the
cloudier cooler fcst going.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

At 0530Z at KLAX...The marine layer depth was 800 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature of 30
degrees C.

Low Confidence in KSMX and KSBP where there almost 50 50 chance of
low clouds developing or not. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR
conds at KSBA 12Z-17Z. Cigs may come in at 006 at KOXR and may
arrive as early as 10Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF there is a 30 percent chc the cigs
will stay above 005.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

28/200 AM

For the Outer Waters, good confidence in current forecast. Gusty
northwest winds will continue through the week. The strongest
winds will occur across PZZ670/673 with a high likelihood of
SCA level winds continuing for most of the week. For PZZ676,
there will be a chance of SCA level winds from Wednesday through
the rest of the week.

For the Inner Waters, good confidence in current forecast. There
is a high likelihood of conditions remaining below SCA levels
through the week.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters will be possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week, particularly south
of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS65 KREV 280930
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Highs around 100 degrees are expected for lower elevations of
western Nevada through Friday as high pressure remains over the
Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are possible south of Highway 50
each afternoon through Friday. For the holiday weekend, dry
conditions are expected with temperatures remaining above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Few changes are expected in the overall weather pattern through
Thursday, as high pressure persists over the Four Corners region.
Daytime temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above average,
yielding highs near or above 100 degrees for most lower valleys
in western NV each day. Highs at Reno may come within a degree or
two of record values for the final three days of June (all of
which were set three years ago). Typical late afternoon-evening
zephyr-type breezes with gusts around 25 mph are expected for the
next three days.

Isolated convection is possible each afternoon and evening mainly
south of US-50, as increased mid level moisture and instability
reach these areas. No significant forcing mechanism is evident and
instability is not very impressive, so most thunderstorms that
develop will be pulse type with slow movement. Brief heavy
rainfall and gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats,
along with lightning strikes which could produce new fire starts.
MJD

.Long Term (Friday Onward)...

Predictability for the upcoming holiday weekend is perhaps a little
less than normal with meaningful differences in the ECMWF vs GFS.
Therefore messaging will focus around potential for continued heat
(GFS) or potential for breezier conditions, critical fire weather to
develop (ECMWF).

For the Friday-Saturday period guidance is reasonably consistent
showing weak upper trough over N Cal but still above normal heights
over the region. Flow is somewhat dry with most of the monsoon
moisture well east of the region, so only isolated storms possible
in the favored convergence zones such as Mono-Mineral and Lassen.
Temperatures likely to remain hot with highs near 95-100 in
Western NV valleys.

Sunday-Tuesday is where we see simulations diverge, with ECMWF
developing a pronounced trough signal over much of the west while
GFS redevelops ridging over the Great Basin. I have no real data to
suggest favoring one over the other, especially considering that
yesterday the models were each showing the opposite outcome. The
GEFS 5-day means for next week are leaning toward more of a trough
situation but still above normal heights and temperatures. Anyways,
I won`t make radical changes to this forecast period but we`ll
continue to highlight potentials for either continued heat for 4th
of July or perhaps breezy and slightly cooler conditions with
critical fire weather. -Chris

&&

.Aviation...

Generally VFR flight conditions through Wednesday with typical late
afternoon and evening westerly zephyr breezes. Winds will be of weak-
moderate magnitude with gusts on the order of 20-25 kts at RNO,
CXP, MMH.

Main weather for pilots to be aware of is development of isolated
high-based thunderstorms over the central and southern Sierra this
afternoon and again Wednesday. We had a few cells develop over the
White Mtns Monday afternoon as initial surge of moisture aloft
worked into the region. Latest high resolution simulations show
storms developing after 20z today on the high terrain around MMH,
BIH with strong/erratic outflow winds, lightning, and MVFR showers.
Coverage about 20-30%. There`s a small but non-zero risk a couple
storms could develop farther north perhaps near Bridgeport and
Minden after 23z along the zephyr convergence zone. Most cells
should be on the wane after 02z this evening.

More of the same for Wednesday but probably greater coverage and
farther north along the Pine Nut mountains. -Chris

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280639
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

New Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

Monsoon moisture may support showers through Tuesday across the
mountains and Antelope Valley with thunderstorms possible by the
afternoon. Hot conditions will will peak Tuesday before gradually
cooling takes hold with near normal temperatures expected by this
weekend. Continued onshore flow will support a June Gloom pattern
and cooler conditions near the coast through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

A hot day transpired as expected this afternoon as ridge of high
pressure expanded across the area. A vort max moving over the area
brought a isolated thunderstorms into the Antelope Valley from the
east. High pressure will weaken some Tuesday allowing for some
cooling to take shape. Temperatures have been nudged down in the
latest update, especially with the monsoonal moisture in place.

The latest model solutions are picking up on an area of
instability to the east over the Lower Colorado River Basin. This
area has some cloud cover pushing west on satellite this evening.
PoPs and cloud cover has been increased across the area. With the
cloud cover pushing west into the area, lower confidence exists in
the temperature and stratus forecast for Tuesday. Cloud cover
could likely cut into temperatures additionally. The stratus
forecast will be tricky and cloud cover could scatter out the
marine layer stratus as what is occurring at KLAX and KOXR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Another hot day today and with the added moisture
from the stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier
out there as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as
today. Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will
linger at the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up.
Temps should be within a couple degrees of today in most areas.
Even with the added moisture heat index should remain below
excessive heat criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets
in the lower mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

LONG TERM...Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early
next week. A weak trough will move through the state that will
expand and accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the
marine lyr may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the
coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

At 0530Z at KLAX...The marine layer depth was 800 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees
C.

Low Confidence in KSMX and KSBP where there almost 50 50 chance of
low clouds developing or not. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR conds
at KSBA 12Z-17Z. Cigs may come in at 006 at KOXR and may arrive as
early as 10Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF there is a 30 percent chc the cigs
will stay above 005.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.

Good confidence in forecast of moderate to locally strong
northwest winds over the outer waters...especially from near
Point conception and northward...through late in the week and
into the weekend. Lighter winds are expected nearshore.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280639
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1130 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

New Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

Monsoon moisture may support showers through Tuesday across the
mountains and Antelope Valley with thunderstorms possible by the
afternoon. Hot conditions will will peak Tuesday before gradually
cooling takes hold with near normal temperatures expected by this
weekend. Continued onshore flow will support a June Gloom pattern
and cooler conditions near the coast through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

A hot day transpired as expected this afternoon as ridge of high
pressure expanded across the area. A vort max moving over the area
brought a isolated thunderstorms into the Antelope Valley from the
east. High pressure will weaken some Tuesday allowing for some
cooling to take shape. Temperatures have been nudged down in the
latest update, especially with the monsoonal moisture in place.

The latest model solutions are picking up on an area of
instability to the east over the Lower Colorado River Basin. This
area has some cloud cover pushing west on satellite this evening.
PoPs and cloud cover has been increased across the area. With the
cloud cover pushing west into the area, lower confidence exists in
the temperature and stratus forecast for Tuesday. Cloud cover
could likely cut into temperatures additionally. The stratus
forecast will be tricky and cloud cover could scatter out the
marine layer stratus as what is occurring at KLAX and KOXR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Another hot day today and with the added moisture
from the stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier
out there as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as
today. Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will
linger at the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up.
Temps should be within a couple degrees of today in most areas.
Even with the added moisture heat index should remain below
excessive heat criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets
in the lower mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

LONG TERM...Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early
next week. A weak trough will move through the state that will
expand and accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the
marine lyr may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the
coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

At 0530Z at KLAX...The marine layer depth was 800 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees
C.

Low Confidence in KSMX and KSBP where there almost 50 50 chance of
low clouds developing or not. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR conds
at KSBA 12Z-17Z. Cigs may come in at 006 at KOXR and may arrive as
early as 10Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF there is a 30 percent chc the cigs
will stay above 005.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.

Good confidence in forecast of moderate to locally strong
northwest winds over the outer waters...especially from near
Point conception and northward...through late in the week and
into the weekend. Lighter winds are expected nearshore.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KMTR 280538
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1038 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:00 PM PDT Monday...Upper level high is
centered over the Utah-Arizona border. This brought very warm
and dry conditions over inland areas today with the warmest
temperatures in the Monterey and San Benito county interior where
highs included 106 at Ft Hunter Liggett...107 at Arroyo Seco and
113 near Lake San Antonio. Meanwhile, a very shallow marine layer
has kept temperatures at the coast near seasonal averages. Strong
n-s gradient will keep low clouds and fog confined to the coastal
areas overnight. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s near
the coast, upper 70s to lower 80s around the San Francisco Bay and
into the 90s for the warmest inland valleys. Far interior portions
of the region as well as the hills will likely see values between
95 and 105 during peak heating on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The southern interior could see temperatures near 110.

The ridge is then forecast to weaken late in the week as a weak
mid/upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and
flattens the high. This will allow temperatures to cool aloft and
for the marine influence to spread inland. Thus, surface
temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday and more so on Friday
when 90 degree temperatures will be confined to the far interior
portions of the region. Also expecting increased coverage of low
clouds and patchy fog during the overnight and early morning hours
as the marine layer deepens and conditions cool aloft.

By the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend, the upper high over the
Southwest will not be as strong so temperatures will generally be
near seasonal averages and ongoing dry weather conditions are
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:38 PM PDT Monday...Mainly clear skies
prevail across area terminals this evening with a few patches of
stratus developing along the coast and down into the Salinas
valley. Tonight will likely be a repeat of last night with low
clouds confined mainly to the coast with cigs moving in over
Monterey Bay area terminals after 12z Tuesday morning and
scattering out early. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.
Confidence is moderate to high.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate west winds to around 20 kt
persist this evening over KSFO. Winds will ease overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low cigs
forecast to return around 10z tonight. Light winds.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:58 PM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters tonight with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
the strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...SF Bay until 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W Pi
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Canepa/CW


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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280424
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
924 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the higher Coastal Range and near the
Sierra crest south of Tahoe.

&&

.DISCUSSION... (Tonight through Thursday)
High pressure will remain over the region through at least mid
week. Temperatures look like they will warm to around 105 for
most valley locations on Tuesday. The far north end of the valley
may range between 105 and 110 Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will continue to have some flow through the delta each day
but marine layer will continue to be shallow and under 1000 ft
deep. Airflow through the delta may increase by Wednesday to help
start a cooling trend for some areas near the delta. Thursday will
continue to be hot inland with well inland areas around 105.

Some monsoonal moisture will be making its way northward along the
crest Tuesday through Thursday of this week. Some isolated
afternoon thunderstorms may be possible...mainly south of Alpine
County.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

An approaching shortwave trough of low pressure Friday and through
the weekend will bring some relief to the hot temperatures across
the valley. Although the main upper level feature will move across
the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will gradually cool into the
weekend. High temperatures Friday will reach the upper 90s to low
100s while valley temperatures Sunday will fall closer to normal
into the low to mid 90s. Temperatures for the foothills and higher
elevations will continue to be in the 70s and 80s for the long
term forecast period. No significant chances for precipitation are
expected at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour
period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and
in the northern valley overnight.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 280424
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
924 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the higher Coastal Range and near the
Sierra crest south of Tahoe.

&&

.DISCUSSION... (Tonight through Thursday)
High pressure will remain over the region through at least mid
week. Temperatures look like they will warm to around 105 for
most valley locations on Tuesday. The far north end of the valley
may range between 105 and 110 Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will continue to have some flow through the delta each day
but marine layer will continue to be shallow and under 1000 ft
deep. Airflow through the delta may increase by Wednesday to help
start a cooling trend for some areas near the delta. Thursday will
continue to be hot inland with well inland areas around 105.

Some monsoonal moisture will be making its way northward along the
crest Tuesday through Thursday of this week. Some isolated
afternoon thunderstorms may be possible...mainly south of Alpine
County.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

An approaching shortwave trough of low pressure Friday and through
the weekend will bring some relief to the hot temperatures across
the valley. Although the main upper level feature will move across
the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will gradually cool into the
weekend. High temperatures Friday will reach the upper 90s to low
100s while valley temperatures Sunday will fall closer to normal
into the low to mid 90s. Temperatures for the foothills and higher
elevations will continue to be in the 70s and 80s for the long
term forecast period. No significant chances for precipitation are
expected at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour
period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and
in the northern valley overnight.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KHNX 280408
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
908 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures and dry weather will continue
across central California this week as high pressure strengthens
over the region. Monsoonal moisture will bring thunderstorms to
the Sierra Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will continue hot weather across the region
this week. Temperatures will be well above average most of the
week, though some moderation will be possible toward the end of
the week as high pressure weakens and a weak trough develops along
the west coast.

Increasing moisture and instability moving up from the southeast
will lead to a chance for late-day thunderstorms over the higher
elevations of the Sierra beginning Tuesday. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorm development into northeastern Kern County
nearing the Erskine wildfire Tuesday afternoon into early evening.
However,thunderstorm chances for Wednesday through Friday should
remain north of Kern County in the higher elevations of the
Sierra.

Slight cooling trend begins Friday with San Joaquin Valley highs
in the 90s for the weekend.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...WP

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KHNX 280408
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
908 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures and dry weather will continue
across central California this week as high pressure strengthens
over the region. Monsoonal moisture will bring thunderstorms to
the Sierra Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will continue hot weather across the region
this week. Temperatures will be well above average most of the
week, though some moderation will be possible toward the end of
the week as high pressure weakens and a weak trough develops along
the west coast.

Increasing moisture and instability moving up from the southeast
will lead to a chance for late-day thunderstorms over the higher
elevations of the Sierra beginning Tuesday. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorm development into northeastern Kern County
nearing the Erskine wildfire Tuesday afternoon into early evening.
However,thunderstorm chances for Wednesday through Friday should
remain north of Kern County in the higher elevations of the
Sierra.

Slight cooling trend begins Friday with San Joaquin Valley highs
in the 90s for the weekend.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday June 28 2016... Unhealthy in Fresno and Tulare Counties
and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive
groups in Kern... Kings... Madera and Merced Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...WP

weather.gov/hanford




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280353
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
853 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Monsoon moisture may support showers through Tuesday across the
mountains and Antelope Valley with thunderstorms possible by the
afternoon. Hot conditions will will peak Tuesday before gradually
cooling takes hold with near normal temperatures expected by this
weekend. Continued onshore flow will support a June Gloom pattern
and cooler conditions near the coast through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

A hot day transpired as expected this afternoon as ridge of high
pressure expanded across the area. A vort max moving over the area
brought a isolated thunderstorms into the Antelope Valley from the
east. High pressure will weaken some Tuesday allowing for some
cooling to take shape. Temperatures have been nudged down in the
latest update, especially with the monsoonal moisture in place.

The latest model solutions are picking up on an area of
instability to the east over the Lower Colorado River Basin. This
area has some cloud cover pushing west on satellite this evening.
PoPs and cloud cover has been increased across the area. With the
cloud cover pushing west into the area, lower confidence exists in
the temperature and stratus forecast for Tuesday. Cloud cover
could likely cut into temperatures additionally. The stratus
forecast will be tricky and cloud cover could scatter out the
marine layer stratus as what is occurring at KLAX and KOXR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Another hot day today and with the added moisture
from the stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier
out there as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as
today. Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will
linger at the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up.
Temps should be within a couple degrees of today in most areas.
Even with the added moisture heat index should remain below
excessive heat criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets
in the lower mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

LONG TERM...Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early
next week. A weak trough will move through the state that will
expand and accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the
marine lyr may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the
coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.

Good confidence in forecast of moderate to locally strong
northwest winds over the outer waters...especially from near
Point conception and northward...through late in the week and
into the weekend. Lighter winds are expected nearshore.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280353
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
853 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Monsoon moisture may support showers through Tuesday across the
mountains and Antelope Valley with thunderstorms possible by the
afternoon. Hot conditions will will peak Tuesday before gradually
cooling takes hold with near normal temperatures expected by this
weekend. Continued onshore flow will support a June Gloom pattern
and cooler conditions near the coast through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

A hot day transpired as expected this afternoon as ridge of high
pressure expanded across the area. A vort max moving over the area
brought a isolated thunderstorms into the Antelope Valley from the
east. High pressure will weaken some Tuesday allowing for some
cooling to take shape. Temperatures have been nudged down in the
latest update, especially with the monsoonal moisture in place.

The latest model solutions are picking up on an area of
instability to the east over the Lower Colorado River Basin. This
area has some cloud cover pushing west on satellite this evening.
PoPs and cloud cover has been increased across the area. With the
cloud cover pushing west into the area, lower confidence exists in
the temperature and stratus forecast for Tuesday. Cloud cover
could likely cut into temperatures additionally. The stratus
forecast will be tricky and cloud cover could scatter out the
marine layer stratus as what is occurring at KLAX and KOXR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Another hot day today and with the added moisture
from the stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier
out there as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as
today. Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will
linger at the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up.
Temps should be within a couple degrees of today in most areas.
Even with the added moisture heat index should remain below
excessive heat criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets
in the lower mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

LONG TERM...Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early
next week. A weak trough will move through the state that will
expand and accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the
marine lyr may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the
coastal valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...27/800 PM.

Good confidence in forecast of moderate to locally strong
northwest winds over the outer waters...especially from near
Point conception and northward...through late in the week and
into the weekend. Lighter winds are expected nearshore.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KMTR 280350
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
850 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:00 PM PDT Monday...Upper level high is
centered over the Utah-Arizona border. This brought very warm
and dry conditions over inland areas today with the warmest
temperatures in the Monterey and San Benito county interior where
highs included 106 at Ft Hunter Liggett...107 at Arroyo Seco and
113 near Lake San Antonio. Meanwhile, a very shallow marine layer
has kept temperatures at the coast near seasonal averages. Strong
n-s gradient wil keep low clouds and fog confined to the coastal
areas overnight. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s near
the coast, upper 70s to lower 80s around the San Francisco Bay and
into the 90s for the warmest inland valleys. Far interior portions
of the region as well as the hills will likely see values between
95 and 105 during peak heating on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The southern interior could see temperatures near 110.

The ridge is then forecast to weaken late in the week as a weak
mid/upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and
flattens the high. This will allow temperatures to cool aloft and
for the marine influence to spread inland. Thus, surface
temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday and more so on Friday
when 90 degree temperatures will be confined to the far interior
portions of the region. Also expecting increased coverage of low
clouds and patchy fog during the overnight and early morning hours
as the marine layer deepens and conditions cool aloft.

By the Fourth of July Holiday Weekend, the upper high over the
Southwest will not be as strong so temperatures will generally be
near seasonal averages and ongoing dry weather conditions are
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:49 PM PDT Monday...Mainly clear skies prevail
across area terminals with patchy stratus along the coast and over
the coastal waters. Tonight will likely be a repeat of last night
with low clouds confined mainly to the coast with cigs moving in
over Monterey Bay area terminals after 12z Tuesday morning and
scattering out early.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Gusty west winds around 20 to 25 kt with
gusts to around 30 kt anticipated until 06z tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low cigs to
return again after 12z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:03 PM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters tonight with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
the strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...Mry Bay until 11 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W Pi
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Canepa


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000
FXUS66 KSGX 280343
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
843 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather inland through
Wednesday, followed by slow cooling into next weekend as high
pressure aloft weakens and a weak low pressure trough develops
along the coast. Moisture aloft, and moderate instability will
continue a slight chance of afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms with gusty winds through Wednesday, mainly near the
mountains. The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal high
temperatures lower with patchy night and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

By 8 PM PDT, skies had cleared over a good chunk of the forecast
area. Some high clouds were still drifting west across the high
deserts, and low, marine clouds were gathering along the coast. the
00Z Miramar sounding had a 6 degree C inversion based near 1400 feet.

High clouds should be more scattered tomorrow as moisture advection
from the SE drops off, and drier air is drawn northward. This should
help daytime temperatures to rise a few more degrees most areas.
Lingering mid-level moisture and instability, will continue a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the mountains and high desert areas. The
Heat Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday as well.

Strong high pressure centered over Utah will weaken through Friday,
allowing a weak low pressure trough to develop along the coast. The
trough will bring drier air aloft, and stronger onshore flow to
deepen the marine layer into the weekend. The cooler weather should
continue into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

280300Z...Coast/Valleys...VFR prevails this evening. However, low
clouds bkn-ovc based 600-1000 feet MSL with tops around 1500 ft MSL
will push inland about 15 miles with local visibilities 2-4 miles
along higher coastal terrain/mesas this evening through the
overnight. There is a moderate risk that the coastal low clouds will
again be patchy so the confidence is low on the timing and duration
of the bkn low clouds at KSAN tonight.

Mountains and Deserts...VFR will prevail under some mid-high level
cloudiness with bases above 10k FT. No precip forecast with just a
slight chance of tsra over the mountains by late Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
800 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 pm...The long period south swell will continue to decrease, but
3-5 foot surf will continue on the southwest facing beaches through
tonight. The surf will lower to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Another long-
period south swell from 200 degrees will bring 4-7 foot surf to
southwest facing beaches late Wednesday and Thursday along with
dangerous rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will continue to run well above average through
Wednesday inland. The heat, combined with minimum daytime RH in the
teens,and locally gusty onshore winds, will result in an elevated
wildfire risk. There is also a slight chance of dry lightning
strikes over the mountains and high deserts each afternoon/early
evening through Wednesday.

A gradual improvement is expected later in the week through early
next week as cooler weather arrives, and the marine layer deepens
into the valleys. Drying aloft after midweek should end any
lightning threat as well.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...Gregoria




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280233
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The most pronounced shortwave has progressed towards the southern CA
coast this evening, however strongly difluent jet level flow has
supported larger scale ascent through much of northern and central
AZ. 21Z KPSR sounding data sampled a well mixed sfc-650mb boundary
layer with moisture solidly at 8 g/kg. Meanwhile, 00Z KTWC sounding
was slightly better with 9 g/kg; and prevailing SE flow was
advecting this moisture profile towards steeper lapse rates and
better dynamics. While notable Cinh was evident in objective
analysis, outflow boundaries descending from higher elevations have
been sufficiently deep to invigorate new deep convection. This has
yielded gusts as high as 35mph and localized dense blowing dust.

Activity through western AZ may be meeting the end of its life cycle
shortly as a more abrupt instability gradient exists along the
Colorado River. Meanwhile, new activity forced along a boundary and
orographics through SE Pinal County may enhance deeper outflow and
enhance isolated development in higher terrain of NE Pinal County
while also creating a dust problem at lower elevations. Have
adjusted some pops for current radar trends and further adjustments
may be necessary going through the evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/156 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016/
Tuesday through Thursday...
There is relatively good model agreement on the evolution of the
flow pattern for mid week. In short, anticyclonic flow centered over
the Great Basin slowly shifts southeastward becoming centered over
Texas by Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low/inverted trough over
Texas shifts westward with time with the northern end of it tracking
across southern AZ. In the process, deeper moisture spreads over the
lower deserts (mainly near and east of the lower Colorado River
Valley). With the deeper moisture (most noticeable Wed and Thu),
storms that form over the higher terrain will have a better chance
of propagating over the lower deserts. However, there is apt to be a
fair amount of cloudiness around which can hinder destabilization.
Thus, we are not forecasting a big outbreak and PoPs reflect this.
Temperatures look to be at their warmest Tuesday (flirting with
Excessive Heat criteria near and west of the Lower Colorado River
Valley). With more clouds and humidity, temperatures trend down Wed
and Thu.

Friday through Monday...
During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn towards
the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in drier
air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to diminish
from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorm
chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain areas east and
southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly sunny over the
central and western deserts. Little change Monday. Temperatures look
to remain reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Lower confidence forecast as several competing outflow boundaries
will create frequent wind shifts through the evening, before
settling on a predominant easterly direction overnight. There is a
fairly low chance of blowing dust making it into the Phoenix
terminals and lesser chance of actual storms impacting the terminal
sites. Easterly sfc winds should prevail much longer into the late
afternoon Tuesday than is typical.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Wind shifts will be the main forecast challenge in SE CA through
tonight as outflow boundaries move into the region from AZ. Brief
gusts will be possible at KBLH, but likely minimal impact at KIPL.
Periods of variability in sfc winds will be likely overnight, then
favor a southerly component Tuesday afternoon. Periodic cloud decks
12K-15K ft will be common across the region.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the 100-110F range
by Sunday. Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the
region with slight chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The
best chances for convective weather remains over the mountains in
central and eastern Arizona. Any storms that develop have the
ability to produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains.
Daytime relative humidities will drop to 15-25 percent but will have
nighttime recoveries. Otherwise, winds will be relatively normal in
the 5 to 15 mph outside of any storm influenced winds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280233
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The most pronounced shortwave has progressed towards the southern CA
coast this evening, however strongly difluent jet level flow has
supported larger scale ascent through much of northern and central
AZ. 21Z KPSR sounding data sampled a well mixed sfc-650mb boundary
layer with moisture solidly at 8 g/kg. Meanwhile, 00Z KTWC sounding
was slightly better with 9 g/kg; and prevailing SE flow was
advecting this moisture profile towards steeper lapse rates and
better dynamics. While notable Cinh was evident in objective
analysis, outflow boundaries descending from higher elevations have
been sufficiently deep to invigorate new deep convection. This has
yielded gusts as high as 35mph and localized dense blowing dust.

Activity through western AZ may be meeting the end of its life cycle
shortly as a more abrupt instability gradient exists along the
Colorado River. Meanwhile, new activity forced along a boundary and
orographics through SE Pinal County may enhance deeper outflow and
enhance isolated development in higher terrain of NE Pinal County
while also creating a dust problem at lower elevations. Have
adjusted some pops for current radar trends and further adjustments
may be necessary going through the evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/156 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016/
Tuesday through Thursday...
There is relatively good model agreement on the evolution of the
flow pattern for mid week. In short, anticyclonic flow centered over
the Great Basin slowly shifts southeastward becoming centered over
Texas by Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low/inverted trough over
Texas shifts westward with time with the northern end of it tracking
across southern AZ. In the process, deeper moisture spreads over the
lower deserts (mainly near and east of the lower Colorado River
Valley). With the deeper moisture (most noticeable Wed and Thu),
storms that form over the higher terrain will have a better chance
of propagating over the lower deserts. However, there is apt to be a
fair amount of cloudiness around which can hinder destabilization.
Thus, we are not forecasting a big outbreak and PoPs reflect this.
Temperatures look to be at their warmest Tuesday (flirting with
Excessive Heat criteria near and west of the Lower Colorado River
Valley). With more clouds and humidity, temperatures trend down Wed
and Thu.

Friday through Monday...
During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn towards
the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in drier
air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to diminish
from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorm
chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain areas east and
southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly sunny over the
central and western deserts. Little change Monday. Temperatures look
to remain reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Lower confidence forecast as several competing outflow boundaries
will create frequent wind shifts through the evening, before
settling on a predominant easterly direction overnight. There is a
fairly low chance of blowing dust making it into the Phoenix
terminals and lesser chance of actual storms impacting the terminal
sites. Easterly sfc winds should prevail much longer into the late
afternoon Tuesday than is typical.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Wind shifts will be the main forecast challenge in SE CA through
tonight as outflow boundaries move into the region from AZ. Brief
gusts will be possible at KBLH, but likely minimal impact at KIPL.
Periods of variability in sfc winds will be likely overnight, then
favor a southerly component Tuesday afternoon. Periodic cloud decks
12K-15K ft will be common across the region.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
Temperatures will continue to cool with highs in the 100-110F range
by Sunday. Monsoon moisture levels continue to increase over the
region with slight chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The
best chances for convective weather remains over the mountains in
central and eastern Arizona. Any storms that develop have the
ability to produce lightning, gusty winds, and wetting rains.
Daytime relative humidities will drop to 15-25 percent but will have
nighttime recoveries. Otherwise, winds will be relatively normal in
the 5 to 15 mph outside of any storm influenced winds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer




000
FXUS66 KMTR 280047
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
547 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:05 PM PDT Monday...Very warm and dry
conditions prevail over inland portions of the region again this
afternoon as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern
portion of the country. Meanwhile, a very shallow marine layer and
continued onshore flow has kept temperatures at the coast near
seasonal averages. Low clouds and fog also continue over the
coastal waters this afternoon and are expected to return to the
coast tonight and into Tuesday morning. Similar conditions are
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in
the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, upper 70s to lower 80s around
the San Francisco Bay and into the 90s for the warmest inland
valleys. Far interior portions of the region as well as the hills
will likely see values between 95 and 105 during peak heating on
both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge is then forecast to weaken late in the week as a weak
mid/upper level trough shifts inland to the north. This will allow
temperatures to cool aloft and for the marine influence to spread
inland. Thus, surface temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday
and more so on Friday when 90 degree temperatures will be confined
to the far interior portions of the region. Also expecting
increased coverage of low clouds and patchy fog during the
overnight and early morning hours late in the week as the marine
layer deepens and conditions cool aloft.

By the Forth of July Holiday Weekend, temperatures will generally
be near seasonal averages and ongoing dry weather conditions are
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:49 PM PDT Monday...Mainly clear skies prevail
across area terminals with patchy stratus along the coast and over
the coastal waters. Tonight will likely be a repeat of last night
with low clouds confined mainly to the coast with cigs moving in
over Monterey Bay area terminals after 12z Tuesday morning and
scattering out early.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Gusty west winds around 20 to 25 kt with
gusts to around 30 kt anticipated until 06z tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low cigs to
return again after 12z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:03 PM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters tonight with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
the strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar from 6 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 11 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Canepa


Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS66 KEKA 272257
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
357 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will continue to bring hot and
dry conditions to interior areas of Northwest California through
Wednesday. A cooling trend will begin on Thursday as a trough
settles over the Pacific Northwest. Seasonable temperatures and
mostly cloudy conditions will persist along much of the coast for
at least the next few days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The axis of a highly amplified upper-level ridge is
currently situated from Utah to the Yukon, leaving Northwest
California on the western periphery in southwest flow aloft. Dry air
is present over northern California and western Oregon on water
vapor satellite imagery. This dry air is likely indicating
subsidence on the backside of a departing shortwave trough moving
northeast through the Pacific Northwest. Thus cumulus development
over the mountains of Northwest California has been quite limited
today. Along the coast the marine layer inversion has remained
robust with stratus persisting for much of the day. Some
downsloping winds off of southern Oregon and Cape Mendocino have
resulted in erosion of the stratus along the northern Mendocino,
southern Humboldt, and Del Norte coastlines. As temperatures cool
this evening the stratus should expand again north along these
coasts, but increasing northerly winds with building high
pressure off the west coast will likely leave at least some holes
in the stratus in areas of downslope.

Heights will increase slightly on Tuesday across the interior
allowing high temperatures to jump a couple of degrees with many
interior valley locations of Mendocino and Trinity counties pushing
into the lower 100s. Though the ridge is expected to start moving
east on Wednesday as an approaching trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest, heights will likely not fall too much allowing for at
least one more day of 100 degree temperatures across the interior.

Better cooling should begin on Thursday and definitely by Friday as
the trough settles over the west coast. Confidence in this solution
is increasing and this will result in temperatures falling back to
near or slightly above normal late in the week and this weekend.
Additionally, the marine layer will deepen along the coast. It is
possible that enough mixing may occur along the coast to dissipate
much of the coastal cloudiness late in the week or this coming
weekend depending on the exact positioning of the upper trough.
Additionally, if enough moisture can be brought into the region,
the cooler air aloft will have the potential to support convective
development over the interior mountains. Considering the pattern
is not particularly supportive of thunderstorms, only very low
chances for precipitation have been included in the forecast for
Thursday and beyond. /RPA


&&

.AVIATION...IFR to LIFR conditions will persist over the coastal
terminals again tonight. LIFR conditions at KACV and KCEC Tuesday
morning, should give way to marginal IFR conditions Tuesday
afternoon, though confidence is not high due to the weak vertical
mixing across a strong marine inversion. At KUKI, expect clear
skies and VFR conditions to continue through the period.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds and short period seas will increase
tonight through Thursday. For tonight, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES for
winds and seas remain in effect for the outer waters 10-60nm
offshore and for portions of the inner waters south of Cape
Mendocino. Near GALE conditions are expected on Tuesday with short
period seas expected to reach 10 feet or more Tuesday afternoon and
evening in the outer waters. Northerly winds will approach FULL GALE
Wednesday and Thursday, primarily in the outer waters. Seas around
15 feet or more are expected outside 10nm Wed and Thu.

Closer to shore and inside 10nm, winds will most likely NOT be as
strong except around Cape Mendocino and Pt St George where gusts
to 40 kt are anticipated. Primary concern for the inner waters
will be the short period wind waves. For that, we hoisted a SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY for hazardous seas starting Tuesday afternoon and
evening for the inner waters north of Cape Mendocino. If the wind
forecast is correct, seas will reach 11-13 ft Wednesday afternoon
and evening north of Cape Mendo inside 10nm. For that, we issued a
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH for large and very steep wind waves.

Conditions should lay down Friday into Saturday, though near GALE
conditions and steep waves will probably persist in the waters south
of Cape Mendocino through Sat.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday FOR
     PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening FOR PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday FOR PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Friday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening FOR PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png




000
FXUS66 KHNX 272216
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
316 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SIERRA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOST OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH SOME MODERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BEGINNING TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
NEARING THE ERSKINE WILDFIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF KERN COUNTY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA.

SLIGHT COOLING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 90S
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE ERSKINE WILDFIRE CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ISABELLA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&


.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OFCERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSTO 272200
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the higher Coastal Range and near the
Sierra crest south of Tahoe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Interior NorCal sandwiched between upper ridging over the
Intermountain West and upper troughing in the EPAC. Strong
subsidence over NorCal resulting in high temperatures running 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Triple digit heat will cover the
Central Valley again today with most areas topping out around
105 degrees F.

Delta breeze is weak but will trend up afternoons and evenings.
Marine layer is quite shallow and thus will have very little
cooling impact inland. Highs near the Delta will trend down 2 to
4 degrees each day through Thursday. In the Southern Sacramento
Valley, only a 1 to 3 degree drop is forecast each day with highs
continuing to reach the century mark into Thursday.

NAM12 continues to showing increasing afternoon instability and
PWS over the Coastal Range Tuesday into Thursday to support a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak instability
depicted over southern portions of our higher Sierra Nevada with
increasing mid level moisture Tuesday into Thursday to support a
slight chance of deep moist convection there.

Weak upper troughing increases through midweek into Thursday.
This will increase onshore flow and provide minor synoptic
cooling in vicinity of the Delta. Central Valley will continue to
see 3 digit high temps with the foothills and mountains also
remaining well above normal.

PCH

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
An approaching shortwave trough of low pressure Friday and
through the weekend will bring some relief to the hot temperatures
across the valley. Although the main upper level feature will move
across the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will gradually cool
into the weekend. High temperatures Friday will reach the upper
90s to low 100s while valley temperatures Sunday will fall closer
to normal into the low to mid 90s. Temperatures for the foothills
and higher elevations will continue to be in the 70s and 80s for
the long term forecast period. No significant chances for
precipitation are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour
period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and
in the northern valley overnight.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KREV 272117
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Typical afternoon and evening breezes return this week as triple
digit heat spreads across western Nevada. Moisture will gradually
build south of Highway 50 where the threat for a few thunderstorms
will return Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The two overriding features in the short term forecast today are
the continuation of very warm temperatures over most of the
forecast area and the return of showers and thunderstorms to
southern sections of the forecast area.

The presence of a broad upper level ridge over the region
continues into at least Wednesday before a break in the very hot
temperatures develops as the ridge starts sliding east. Daytime
highs are likely to approach record levels in some areas both
Tuesday and Wednesday...with the best chances for records
Wednesday. Highs should reach 100 to 105 in the lower valleys of
western Nevada with upper 90s in the valleys of northeast
California. In the Sierra valleys highs in the upper 80s to near
90 are likely. While not high enough to warrant issuing Heat
Advisories...these temperatures can still lead to heat related
stress and illness. Precautions should be taken to insure proper
hydration is maintained during outdoor activities.

An increase in thermal gradients from the Sierra to the western
Nevada Basin and Range could cause wind gusts close to 30 mph each
afternoon along the western Nevada Sierra Front.

Over the past week warm temperatures aloft and a lack of low to
mid level moisture have resulted in no convection developing. That
should be changing as mid level moisture starts to work its way
north due to backing flow in the low to mid levels to a more
south-southwest direction over Mono County Tuesday. Only isolated
showers and storms are expected Tuesday...but these should become
a bit more widespread and develop farther north Wednesday and
Thursday as some cooling takes place aloft and a little more
mid level moisture is advected into the region. The low level
winds mentioned above could be the focus for development north
along the Pine Nut and southern Virginia ranges by Thursday.

A dry sub-cloud layer Tuesday will limit the amount of rain
reaching the ground. This layer will begin to moisten a bit more
by Wednesday and slow storm motions will aid the stronger storms
in producing rain at the surface. XX

.LONG TERM...

Troughing will be the main feature along the west coast for the
weekend into next week. Main concerns will be for thunderstorms on
Friday afternoon and then a transition to a cooler and more breezy
weather pattern.

ECMWF and GFS are in slightly better agreement with the synoptic
pattern for next week, but the timing still remains a tad off. The
GFS is quicker to bring in the trough and dry southwest flow, which
will drastically reduce the potential for thunderstorms in Mono
county late Friday afternoon. Although the GFS dries out the region
quickly on Friday, the ECMWF holds onto some residual moisture and
has a delayed dry out period, so went ahead and left in low chances
for thunderstorms in Mono county for Friday.

Main concern for the extended will be the potential for breezy to
gusty winds starting late Friday and continuing through the holiday
weekend. Model simulations are bringing the trough into the Pac NW,
but just far enough south into the Sierra and western NV that the
winds will increase noticeably. Although we are looking at
temperatures cooling down as the trough approaches, relative
humidity values will likely remain fairly low, so we could
potentially dealing with critical fire weather conditions starting
as early as Saturday. Edan

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions along with typical afternoon, evening westerly winds
today. Cumulus buildups likely this afternoon for the
central/southern Sierra near KMMH. Hot temperatures over the next
several days may result in density altitude issues depending on
aircraft type and weight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
mainly in the central, southern Sierra and nearby high terrain such
as the Sweetwater Range and White Mtns. Wednesday looks to be the
most active day. Not anticipating storms near RNO/TVL as flow aloft
looks to be too dry, but MMH could see high based cells nearby each
afternoon with strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning.
-Chris/Edan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Thunderstorms lift back into the area starting Tuesday...mainly
confined to areas south of Highway 50...but could develop north
along the southern parts of the Virginia Range by Wednesday and
Thursday. Low level moisture will be lacking with these storms...
especially Tuesday...so the storms are likely to be dry at first.
Slow storm motions each day will allow for the storms to produce
rainfall within their main cores through the later portions of
their life spans. Dry lightning strikes and gusty outflow winds
are possible outside the cores...even Wednesday and Thursday as
the moisture becomes a little deeper.

The last week has been quite dry...allowing some fuels to dry.
The very hot temperatures expected through this week could speed
that process. So any dry lightning strikes outside of the rain
cores could potentially cause new fires if fuels are receptive.
Right now we do not feel coverage of dry lightning would be
sufficient to warrant issuing any Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag
Warnings. This is mainly a heads up that isolated dry strikes are
possible this week. XX

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272117
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
217 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland...the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into early
next week for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Another hot day today and with the added moisture from the
stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier out there
as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as today.
Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will linger at
the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up. Temps should
be within a couple degrees of today in most areas. Even with the
added moisture heat index should remain below excessive heat
criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets in the lower
mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)


Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early next week. A
weak trough will move through the state that will expand and
accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to near or even
slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the marine lyr
may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the coastal
valleys.


&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in zone 645 will be near Small Craft Advisory level at times
tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272115
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
156 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.Update for Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today and Tonight...
A small upper low centered southwest of El Centro early this
afternoon continues moving westward. Shower activity associated with
it has been weak and isolated. Cloud cover associated with it has
been thinning. Stronger convection has begun to develop over the
higher terrain of northern and southeastern AZ due to destabilization
from surface heating. Storms over the northern half of AZ will also
benefit from some upper level diffluence. Hi-res models have been
depicting this. They are also in generally good agreement that
convection over our area this afternoon and tonight will be spotty.
In fact, they are not overly enthusiastic about southeast AZ. But
there are indications of outflow moving through the south-central AZ
deserts (including Phoenix) from higher terrain late this
afternoon/early evening. With surface dew points in the low 50s and
being on the back side of the aforementioned upper low, it is not
surprising that the models are not depicting an active night for the
lower deserts. But still enough factors to keep slight chances going
(better chance over Zone 24). Also, with the southeasterly steering
flow, debris from Sonora could drift through late tonight.

Tuesday through Thursday...
There is relatively good model agreement on the evolution of the flow
pattern for mid week. In short, anticyclonic flow centered over the
Great Basin slowly shifts southeastward becoming centered over Texas
by Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low/inverted trough over Texas
shifts westward with time with the northern end of it tracking
across southern AZ. In the process, deeper moisture spreads over the
lower deserts (mainly near and east of the lower Colorado River
Valley). With the deeper moisture (most noticeable Wed and Thu),
storms that form over the higher terrain will have a better chance of
propagating over the lower deserts. However, there is apt to be a
fair amount of cloudiness around which can hinder destabilization.
Thus, we are not forecasting a big outbreak and PoPs reflect this.
Temperatures look to be at their warmest Tuesday (flirting with
Excessive Heat criteria near and west of the Lower Colorado River
Valley). With more clouds and humidity, temperatures trend down Wed
and Thu.

Friday through Monday...
During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn towards
the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in drier
air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to diminish
from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorm
chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain areas east and
southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly sunny over the
central and western deserts. Little change Monday. Temperatures look
to remain reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: The chance for
outflow wind gusts remain a possibility for the late afternoon, but
confidence on occurrence is low. The best chance for convection
remains in the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Sct to bkn
mid and high level clouds likely to persist through the period.
Otherwise, wind patterns should shift westerly in the afternoon and
then easterly in the early morning hours.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Cigs
in a 10K-15K ft range will persist through this afternoon with some
clearing further to the south into Imperial County. Winds will be
more southwesterly in the afternoon through the evening with
possibility of a few gusts.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...Temperatures will continue to cool with
highs in the 100-110F range by Sunday. Monsoon moisture levels
continue to increase over the region with slight chances for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The best chances for convective
weather remains over the mountains in central and eastern Arizona.
Any storms that develop have the ability to produce lightning, gusty
winds, and wetting rains. Daytime relative humidities will drop to
15-25 percent but will have nighttime recoveries. Otherwise, winds
will be relatively normal in the 5 to 15 mph outside of any storm
influenced winds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...Deemer
FIRE WEATHER...Deemer




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272106
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
206 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:05 PM PDT Monday...Very warm and dry
conditions prevail over inland portions of the region again this
afternoon as high pressure dominates much of the southwestern
portion of the country. Meanwhile, a very shallow marine layer and
continued onshore flow has kept temperatures at the coast near
seasonal averages. Low clouds and fog also continue over the
coastal waters this afternoon and are expected to return to the
coast tonight and into Tuesday morning. Similar conditions are
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in
the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, upper 70s to lower 80s around
the San Francisco Bay and into the 90s for the warmest inland
valleys. Far interior portions of the region as well as the hills
will likely see values between 95 and 105 during peak heating on
both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge is then forecast to weaken late in the week as a weak
mid/upper level trough shifts inland to the north. This will allow
temperatures to cool aloft and for the marine influence to spread
inland. Thus, surface temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday
and more so on Friday when 90 degree temperatures will be confined
to the far interior portions of the region. Also expecting
increased coverage of low clouds and patchy fog during the
overnight and early morning hours late in the week as the marine
layer deepens and conditions cool aloft.

By the Forth of July Holiday Weekend, temperatures will generally
be near seasonal averages and ongoing dry weather conditions are
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:49 AM PDT Monday...Strong mid-upper level
high persists over the area. Areas of low cigs/vsbys at the
immediate coast due to fog and stratus, otherwise VFR.

Vicinity of KSFO...Gusty west winds to around 30 kt 22z-04z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very shallow cigs are mixing out, VFR
forecast for this afternoon and early evening. Low cigs to return
again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters today with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
The strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar from 6 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 11 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Canepa


Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272056
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
156 PM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today and Tonight...
A small upper low centered southwest of El Centro early this
afternoon continues moving westward. Shower activity associated with
it has been weak and isolated. Cloud cover associated with it has
been thinning. Stronger convection has begun to develop over the
higher terrain of northern and southeastern AZ due to destabilization
from surface heating. Storms over the northern half of AZ will also
benefit from some upper level diffluence. Hi-res models have been
depicting this. They are also in generally good agreement that
convection over our area this afternoon and tonight will be spotty.
In fact, they are not overly enthusiastic about southeast AZ. But
there are indications of outlflow moving through the south-central AZ
deserts (including Phoenix) from higher terrain late this
afternoon/early evening. With surface dew points in the low 50s and
being on the back side of the aforementioned upper low, it is not
surprising that the models are not depicting an active night for the
lower deserts. But still enough factors to keep slight chances going
(better chance over Zone 24). Also, with the southeasterly steering
flow, debris from Sonora could drift through late tonight.

Tuesday through Thursday...
There is relatively good model agreement on the evolution of the flow
pattern for mid week. In short, anticyclonic flow centered over the
Great Basin slowly shifts southeastward becoming centered over Texas
by Thursday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low/inverted trough over Texas
shifts westward with time with the northern end of it tracking
across southern AZ. In the process, deeper moisture spreads over the
lower deserts (mainly near and east of the lower Colorado River
Valley). With the deeper moisture (most noticeable Wed and Thu),
storms that form over the higher terrain will have a better chance of
propagating over the lower deserts. However, there is apt to be a
fair amount of cloudiness around which can hinder destabilization.
Thus, we are not forecasting a big outbreak and PoPs reflect this.
Temperatures look to be at their warmest Tuesday (flirting with
Excessive Heat criteria near and west of the Lower Colorado River
Valley). With more clouds and humidity, temperatures trend down Wed
and Thu.

Friday through Monday...
During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn towards
the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in drier
air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to diminish
from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon, thunderstorm
chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain areas east and
southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly sunny over the
central and western deserts. Little change Monday. Temperatures look
to remain reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds are
likely late this afternoon, but confidence in timing is still
somewhat low. Actual storms may not survive to lower elevations,
though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and frequent lightning for
arrivals/departures to the east may be problematic. Persistent
easterly winds this evening should occur earlier this normal. Sct to
bkn mid and high clouds should persist through Tuesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft range will persist through this afternoon with
some gradual thinning of cloud cover tonight. Virga showers this
morning over the terminals are likely and should dissipate by around
noon. While a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred through
this afternoon, winds will eventually become more southwesterly this
evening. A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods, especially this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272049
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland...the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into early
next week for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Another hot day today and with the added moisture from the
stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier out there
as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as today.
Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will linger at
the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up. Temps should
be within a couple degrees of today in most areas. Even with the
added moisture heat index should remain below excessive heat
criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets in the lower
mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early next week. A
weak trough will move through the state that will expand and
accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to near or even
slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the marine lyr
may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the coastal
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in zone 645 will be near Small Craft Advisory level at times
tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272049
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland...the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into early
next week for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

Another hot day today and with the added moisture from the
stronger onshore flow and moisture aloft it`s stickier out there
as well. The prognosis for Tuesday is much the same as today.
Onshore trends will continue and low clouds and fog will linger at
the coast much of the day while inland areas heat up. Temps should
be within a couple degrees of today in most areas. Even with the
added moisture heat index should remain below excessive heat
criteria in most areas except some isolated pockets in the lower
mtn regions and far western San Fernando Valley.

Increasing mid and high level moisture from the southeast today
along with some instability is generating some cumulus over the
eastern mountains today but so far the moisture has been too high
to lead to any showers or storms. Still a non-zero chance of that
through the afternoon. Parameters slightly less favorable Tuesday
and through the rest of the week so today should be best chance of
anything developing.

Onshore flow expected to increase just a little each day through
the rest of the week. While this will bring some relief to the
coastal valleys, farther interior areas such as the Antelope
Valley should remain at or above 105 through Thu.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

Pretty quiet pattern late this weekend through early next week. A
weak trough will move through the state that will expand and
accelerate the cooling trend with most areas back to near or even
slightly below normal levels by the weekend. And the marine lyr
may deepen up just enough to sneak into some of the coastal
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in zone 645 will be near Small Craft Advisory level at times
tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272038
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
138 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather for inland areas
through Wednesday followed by slow cooling into next weekend as
high pressure aloft weakens and a weak trough of low pressure
develops over the Pacific Northwest. Mid and high level moisture
associated with a disturbance moving through the region will
bring a slight chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
with gusty winds through Wednesday, mainly near the mountains.
The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal high
temperatures cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and
fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible and radar imagery continues to show mid and high level
clouds and some light radar returns associated with an easterly
wave which is moving through the region. Most of the fast moving
light radar returns are resulting in virga or sprinkles. However,
a band of stationary showers has developed and persisted on the
desert slopes near Lake Arrowhead over the past hour. The 12Z
Miramar sounding shows precipitable water having increased to 1.48
inches, although the majority of the moisture appears to be above
700 mb, with a dry layer noted below 700 mb until you reach the 10
deg C marine layer inversion near 1000 ft MSL. It is due to the
dry layer below 700 mb that most of the precipitation may
evaporate before reaching the ground, which is why most of it will
appear as virga or maybe some sprinkles. The amount of cloud
cover we have today, and which locations receive more sunlight
than others, is playing a factor in how hot we get today. Due to
the mid and high clouds, temperatures have been slightly reduced
at 1 pm today compared to 1 pm yesterday in the Inland Empire, all
mountain areas, the High Deserts and Coachella Valley. However,
with some higher surface dewpoints in the area (low 60s shown
currently over most coast, valley and desert areas), it will feel
more muggy and uncomfortable.

Despite the increase in moisture and the wave moving overhead, the
elevated instability parameters shown by the forecast models for
this afternoon and evening are still not impressive. Also, the
strong easterly flow is not conducive for thunderstorms that
develop over the mountains to maintain their structure. Thus, the
latest HRRR run shows some light shower activity but not much in
the way of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Nevertheless,
slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast today for
the mountains, with some activity possibly being blown west into
the valleys.

Meanwhile, marine layer stratus along the coast this morning was
able to clear pretty quickly, but has since re-developed along the
immediate coast, likely due to the decently strong marine layer
inversion.

Models show drier air intruding into Southern California Tuesday
and Wednesday as flow turns southerly in the wake of the easterly
wave, resulting in less of a chance for afternoon and early
evening mountain thunderstorms on those days. However, the
clearer skies and strong ridge over the four corners region should
result in hotter conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal.
Continued hot for inland areas on Wednesday, with 850 mb
temperatures in the deserts reaching 27-29 deg C, and near 26-27
deg C in the valleys. A Heat Advisory continues for the deserts,
mountains and valleys through Wednesday. Despite the ridge
weakening on Thursday, looks like the 850 mb temperatures do not
decrease too much, so hot conditions may continue.

Cooler Friday into the weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest, with a deepening of the marine layer as well, resulting
in night and morning stratus into the coast and portions of the
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
271950Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of sct-bkn clouds based 800-1200
feet MSL with tops around 1500 ft MSL over the coastal waters
otherwise mostly clear.  After 28/0z this evening low clouds bkn-
ovc based 800-1200 feet MSL with tops around 1500 ft MSL will push
inland about 15 miles with local visibilities 2-4 miles along higher
coastal terrain/mesas. There is a moderate risk that the coastal low
clouds will again be patchy so the confidence is low on the timing
and duration of the bkn low clouds at KSAN tonight. Some low clouds
may temporarily move in on the sea breeze but will leave out of the
KSAN TAF.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA near the mountains through 28/00z this afternoon
with CB bases near 9000 ft MSL and tops to near 35000 ft MSL.

Mountains and Deserts...Sct-bkn clouds based around 9000 feet MSL
with unrestricted visibilities. This afternoon through 28/00Z
isolated SHRA/TSRA with cloud bases 9000 ft MSL   and tops to
35000 ft MSL will be possible over the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
100 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 pm...The long period south swell will continue to decrease, but
3-5 foot surf will continue on the southwest facing beaches through
tonight. The surf will lower to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Another long-
period south swell from 200 degrees will bring 4-7 foot surf to
southwest facing beaches late Wednesday and Thursday along with
dangerous rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slight chance of dry lightning over the mountains and portions of
the valleys this afternoon and evening, as an easterly wave moves
through the region. Drying will start to take place Tuesday, with
maybe just enough moisture leftover on Tuesday and Wednesday to
produce isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Small




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272038
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
138 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather for inland areas
through Wednesday followed by slow cooling into next weekend as
high pressure aloft weakens and a weak trough of low pressure
develops over the Pacific Northwest. Mid and high level moisture
associated with a disturbance moving through the region will
bring a slight chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
with gusty winds through Wednesday, mainly near the mountains.
The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal high
temperatures cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and
fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible and radar imagery continues to show mid and high level
clouds and some light radar returns associated with an easterly
wave which is moving through the region. Most of the fast moving
light radar returns are resulting in virga or sprinkles. However,
a band of stationary showers has developed and persisted on the
desert slopes near Lake Arrowhead over the past hour. The 12Z
Miramar sounding shows precipitable water having increased to 1.48
inches, although the majority of the moisture appears to be above
700 mb, with a dry layer noted below 700 mb until you reach the 10
deg C marine layer inversion near 1000 ft MSL. It is due to the
dry layer below 700 mb that most of the precipitation may
evaporate before reaching the ground, which is why most of it will
appear as virga or maybe some sprinkles. The amount of cloud
cover we have today, and which locations receive more sunlight
than others, is playing a factor in how hot we get today. Due to
the mid and high clouds, temperatures have been slightly reduced
at 1 pm today compared to 1 pm yesterday in the Inland Empire, all
mountain areas, the High Deserts and Coachella Valley. However,
with some higher surface dewpoints in the area (low 60s shown
currently over most coast, valley and desert areas), it will feel
more muggy and uncomfortable.

Despite the increase in moisture and the wave moving overhead, the
elevated instability parameters shown by the forecast models for
this afternoon and evening are still not impressive. Also, the
strong easterly flow is not conducive for thunderstorms that
develop over the mountains to maintain their structure. Thus, the
latest HRRR run shows some light shower activity but not much in
the way of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Nevertheless,
slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast today for
the mountains, with some activity possibly being blown west into
the valleys.

Meanwhile, marine layer stratus along the coast this morning was
able to clear pretty quickly, but has since re-developed along the
immediate coast, likely due to the decently strong marine layer
inversion.

Models show drier air intruding into Southern California Tuesday
and Wednesday as flow turns southerly in the wake of the easterly
wave, resulting in less of a chance for afternoon and early
evening mountain thunderstorms on those days. However, the
clearer skies and strong ridge over the four corners region should
result in hotter conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal.
Continued hot for inland areas on Wednesday, with 850 mb
temperatures in the deserts reaching 27-29 deg C, and near 26-27
deg C in the valleys. A Heat Advisory continues for the deserts,
mountains and valleys through Wednesday. Despite the ridge
weakening on Thursday, looks like the 850 mb temperatures do not
decrease too much, so hot conditions may continue.

Cooler Friday into the weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest, with a deepening of the marine layer as well, resulting
in night and morning stratus into the coast and portions of the
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
271950Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of sct-bkn clouds based 800-1200
feet MSL with tops around 1500 ft MSL over the coastal waters
otherwise mostly clear.  After 28/0z this evening low clouds bkn-
ovc based 800-1200 feet MSL with tops around 1500 ft MSL will push
inland about 15 miles with local visibilities 2-4 miles along higher
coastal terrain/mesas. There is a moderate risk that the coastal low
clouds will again be patchy so the confidence is low on the timing
and duration of the bkn low clouds at KSAN tonight. Some low clouds
may temporarily move in on the sea breeze but will leave out of the
KSAN TAF.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA near the mountains through 28/00z this afternoon
with CB bases near 9000 ft MSL and tops to near 35000 ft MSL.

Mountains and Deserts...Sct-bkn clouds based around 9000 feet MSL
with unrestricted visibilities. This afternoon through 28/00Z
isolated SHRA/TSRA with cloud bases 9000 ft MSL   and tops to
35000 ft MSL will be possible over the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
100 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 pm...The long period south swell will continue to decrease, but
3-5 foot surf will continue on the southwest facing beaches through
tonight. The surf will lower to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Another long-
period south swell from 200 degrees will bring 4-7 foot surf to
southwest facing beaches late Wednesday and Thursday along with
dangerous rip currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slight chance of dry lightning over the mountains and portions of
the valleys this afternoon and evening, as an easterly wave moves
through the region. Drying will start to take place Tuesday, with
maybe just enough moisture leftover on Tuesday and Wednesday to
produce isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE...Small




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271835
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1135 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland...the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into early
next week for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

.UPDATE...Another hot day for inland areas today as high pressure
aloft continues. Surface pressure gradients are trending slightly
onshore today and the eddy circulation will keep clouds hugging
the coast south of Pt Conception through the afternoon with much
cooler temps there. The stronger onshore push has also increased
humidities slightly in the valleys making it feel even more
uncomfortable than yesterday. There may be a few spots that reach
excessive heat criteria, most notably near Woodland Hills and the
lower elevations of the LA/Ventura mountains. Also watching some
moisture approaching our area from the southeast. It`s still very
dry below 600mb so it`s going to be difficult to get anything to
reach the ground, but there`s sufficient instability (-4 LI and
900 j/kg CAPE in the eastern San Gabriels) to warrant a small
chance of afternoon convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)


Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271835
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1135 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland...the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into early
next week for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

.UPDATE...Another hot day for inland areas today as high pressure
aloft continues. Surface pressure gradients are trending slightly
onshore today and the eddy circulation will keep clouds hugging
the coast south of Pt Conception through the afternoon with much
cooler temps there. The stronger onshore push has also increased
humidities slightly in the valleys making it feel even more
uncomfortable than yesterday. There may be a few spots that reach
excessive heat criteria, most notably near Woodland Hills and the
lower elevations of the LA/Ventura mountains. Also watching some
moisture approaching our area from the southeast. It`s still very
dry below 600mb so it`s going to be difficult to get anything to
reach the ground, but there`s sufficient instability (-4 LI and
900 j/kg CAPE in the eastern San Gabriels) to warrant a small
chance of afternoon convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)


Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

At 1800z at KLAX...The marine layer depth is 1200 feet. The rest
of the data on the marine inversion is not available.

There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF forecasts,
although recent developments may increase the confidence somewhat.
The marine cloud coverage has been a bit inconsistent the last
couple of nights, but the 18z forecasts were written on the
pessimistic side with an expectation that the marine clouds would
again move in tonight and affect the TAF sites along the coast
from KSBA south to KLGB. The one factor that yields better
confidence in this anticipated scenario is an increase in the
onshore gradients this morning.

KLAX...There is relatively low confidence in the 18z TAF, yet the
confidence in IFR conditions is slowly growing with time. There
is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the night.

KBUR...There is high confidence in VFR conditions lasting through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sweet
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271749
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1049 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Generally quiet weather
conditions prevail this morning a shallow marine layer in place.
This has resulted in low clouds near the coast that should
mainly remain confined to near the coast or over the coastal
waters through this afternoon. Meanwhile, inland areas are rapidly
warming with low to mid 70s reported at this hour with some 80s in
the hills. Do expect light onshore winds to keep coastal areas
cool today with widespread 90s inland with a few of the warmest
locations breaking the 100 degree mark again this afternoon.
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no major updates are
needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for
additional details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight
shows area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal
locations now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient
more than 3 MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it
to more coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around
500 feet so generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today
will be the same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the
ridge of high pressure across the southern half of the US expands
a bit to the north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to
around 593 DM by afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will
warm an additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:49 AM PDT Monday...Strong mid-upper level
high persists over the area. Areas of low cigs/vsbys at the
immediate coast due to fog and stratus, otherwise VFR.

Vicinity of KSFO...Gusty west winds to around 30 kt 22z-04z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very shallow cigs are mixing out, VFR
forecast for this afternoon and early evening. Low cigs to return
again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters today with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
The strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa


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www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271640
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
940 AM MST MON JUN 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A small upper level low is centered just southwest of Yuma this
morning. To the north of that is a larger anticyclonic circulation
centered over the Great Basin. A smaller anticyclone is centered over
north-central Mexico and to the east of that is a cutoff low centered
over Texas. The cyclonic feature over and near our forecast area has
been keeping weak isolated showers/sprinkles going this morning. Also
of note is a zone of strong east-to-west winds in the mid levels due
to gradient between the low and the high to the north. This weakens
as the day wears on. With 1000-700mb average mixing ratios of 7-8
g/kg, there is just enough moisture for CAPE - though there is still
CIN to contend with. But with decent CAPE over southeast AZ and
steering flow from the southeast later on, there is a non-zero chance
of storms surviving over the lower deserts. Not looking at a big day
at this point and hi-res models are not enthusiastic (except for NCAR
ensemble). One caveat is that upper level divergence (associated
with diffluence from the upper low) could extend further south over
our area instead of being focused over FGZ and VEF areas. That could
aid storm development (mainly over La Paz and northern Maricopa
Counties). No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 310 am MST/PDT...
Early this morning a well defined inverted trof could be seen moving
westward across far southern/southwestern Arizona, and this feature
was clearly evident in vapor imagery as well as recent plot data.
Circulation around this feature was spreading increasing moisture
westward and into the desert west of Phoenix; latest blended total
precipitable water imagery indicated pwat values over 1.2 inches over
portions of the southwest deserts. The inverted trof created good
upper difluence across the central and western deserts and coupled
with a good uvv field, a field of mostly light showers could be seen
spreading into the western deserts at 2 am. As this inverted trof
slowly pushes west today we can expect a continued slight chance of
showers or thunderstorms across much of the lower deserts to the west
of Phoenix including portions of SE California. Later this afternoon
and evening across south central Arizona, the forcing becomes weaker
behind the exiting inverted trof but there is weak southeast steering
flow and sufficient deeper moisture and instability to allow for a
15-20 percent chance of mainly evening thunderstorms over the central
deserts and a chance of storms over higher terrain east of Phoenix.
This is supported by various mesoscale models such as the NMM6km.
Clouds and moisture working across the lower deserts will keep high
temps today mostly below the 110 degree mark, even over the far
western deserts.

Model guidance, including operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as
well as ensemble guidance such as the GEFS and NAEFS, continue to
call for a very monsoonal pattern to develop across the desert
southwest starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of the
work week. Initially the main upper high center forms near the four
corners, setting up a deeper southeast steering flow over most of
the area which will steadily transport increasing and deeper
moisture westward over the lower deserts. PWAT values steadily climb
and are forecast to exceed 1.5 inches across the main monsoon
moisture corridor which sets up just east of the lower Colorado
River Valley and extends into far eastern Arizona. The steering flow
is favorable to bring mountain storms into the lower deserts, and
from time to time there will be disturbances rotating around the
main upper high which will serve to enhance thunderstorm coverage
and intensity. Model guidance typically has a hard time with the
exact timing and track of these features and we generally cannot
place a lot of faith in them more than a day or two down the road.
Overall we are looking at a rather broad brushed forecast with 10-20
percent chances of mainly afternoon and evening storms over the
deserts mainly east of the lower CO river valley, and 30-40 percent
chances across the higher terrain east of Phoenix.

Later in the week the upper high starts to shift towards the
southeast and steering flow becomes more southerly. Still, moisture
remains high and in fact the GFS calls for PWAT value in the central
deserts to approach 2 inches later Thursday into Friday. This would
suggest a much better chance for heavy rains to accompany any storms
that develop. Of course, as moisture increases the temperatures will
fall off and by midweek high temps across south central Arizona will
approach and then fall below seasonal normals. It will stay a bit
hotter further west where the atmosphere is a bit drier, with highs
over 110 expected for much of the week.

During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn
towards the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in
drier air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to
diminish from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon,
thunderstorm chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain
areas east and southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly
sunny over the central and western deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds are
likely late this afternoon, but confidence in timing is still
somewhat low. Actual storms may not survive to lower elevations,
though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and frequent lightning for
arrivals/departures to the east may be problematic. Persistent
easterly winds this evening should occur earlier this normal. Sct to
bkn mid and high clouds should persist through Tuesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft range will persist through this afternoon with
some gradual thinning of cloud cover tonight. Virga showers this
morning over the terminals are likely and should dissipate by around
noon. While a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred through
this afternoon, winds will eventually become more southwesterly this
evening. A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods, especially this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271622
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
922 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Generally quiet weather
conditions prevail this morning a shallow marine layer in place.
This has resulted in low clouds near the coast that should
mainly remain confined to near the coast or over the coastal
waters through this afternoon. Meanwhile, inland areas are rapidly
warming with low to mid 70s reported at this hour with some 80s in
the hills. Do expect light onshore winds to keep coastal areas
cool today with widespread 90s inland with a few of the warmest
locations breaking the 100 degree mark again this afternoon.
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no major updates are
needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for
additional details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight
shows area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal
locations now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient
more than 3 MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it
to more coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around
500 feet so generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today
will be the same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the
ridge of high pressure across the southern half of the US expands
a bit to the north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to
around 593 DM by afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will
warm an additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:45 AM PDT Monday...For 12z TAFs. Profilers
show the marine layer is around 1000 feet deep with cigs hugging
the coast. Half Moon Bay, Monterey and Salinas are reporting
shallow ceilings around 200-300 feet. Given the shallow inversion
layer not expecting cigs into sf bay with the strong ridge keeping
the inversion layer shallow for next 24 hours. Strong west winds
expected thru the golden gate and san bruno gap.

Vicinity of KSFO...vfr skies this morning into tonight. Only
concern will be some gusty west winds this afternoon at ksfo with
gusts to around 30 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very shallow cigs less than 500 feet at
kmry and ksns early this morning should burn off by 16z with some
reduced vsbys. Then vfr this afternoon and early evening. Low cigs
to return again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters today with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
The strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: Canepa

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271622
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
922 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Generally quiet weather
conditions prevail this morning a shallow marine layer in place.
This has resulted in low clouds near the coast that should
mainly remain confined to near the coast or over the coastal
waters through this afternoon. Meanwhile, inland areas are rapidly
warming with low to mid 70s reported at this hour with some 80s in
the hills. Do expect light onshore winds to keep coastal areas
cool today with widespread 90s inland with a few of the warmest
locations breaking the 100 degree mark again this afternoon.
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no major updates are
needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for
additional details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight
shows area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal
locations now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient
more than 3 MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it
to more coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around
500 feet so generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today
will be the same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the
ridge of high pressure across the southern half of the US expands
a bit to the north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to
around 593 DM by afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will
warm an additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:45 AM PDT Monday...For 12z TAFs. Profilers
show the marine layer is around 1000 feet deep with cigs hugging
the coast. Half Moon Bay, Monterey and Salinas are reporting
shallow ceilings around 200-300 feet. Given the shallow inversion
layer not expecting cigs into sf bay with the strong ridge keeping
the inversion layer shallow for next 24 hours. Strong west winds
expected thru the golden gate and san bruno gap.

Vicinity of KSFO...vfr skies this morning into tonight. Only
concern will be some gusty west winds this afternoon at ksfo with
gusts to around 30 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very shallow cigs less than 500 feet at
kmry and ksns early this morning should burn off by 16z with some
reduced vsbys. Then vfr this afternoon and early evening. Low cigs
to return again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the waters today with a tight surface pressure
gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared
seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well.
The strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of
the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: Canepa

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271610
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

The day and night temperatures will be above normal through Sunday
with a cooling trend at the end of the week.  The onshore flow will
continue the overnight coastal marine layer into early next week.
Farther inland the high will bring fair skies and a heat wave
through Thursday. The high should weaken by Friday and into
Sunday for increasing cloudiness.

&&

.UPDATE...Another hot day for inland areas today as high pressure
aloft continues. Surface pressure gradients are trending slightly
onshore today and the eddy circulation will keep clouds hugging
the coast south of Pt Conception through the afternoon with much
cooler temps there. The stronger onshore push has also increased
humidities slightly in the valleys making it feel even more
uncomfortable than yesterday. There may be a few spots that reach
excessive heat criteria, most notably near Woodland Hills and the
lower elevations of the LA/Ventura mountains. Also watching some
moisture approaching our area from the southeast. It`s still very
dry below 600mb so it`s going to be difficult to get anything to
reach the ground, but there`s sufficient instability (-4 LI and
900 j/kg CAPE in the eastern San Gabriels) to warrant a small
chance of afternoon convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)


Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

At 09z at KLAX... the marine incursion is about 2400 feet deep.
The top is near 3300 feet with a temperature of about 31 degrees
Celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. The marine incursion is more developed this
morning than twenty four hours ago though with a thirty percent
chance that it may diminish in some locations currently impacted.
Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs. There is a sixty percent chance
that the marine incursion will redevelop prior to sunrise.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence
is primarily due to uncertainty in low CIGs and VSBYs affecting
the airport. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week...particularly
south of Point Conception.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271552
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
852 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather for inland areas
through Wednesday followed by slow cooling into next weekend as
high pressure aloft weakens and a weak trough of low pressure
develops over the Pacific Northwest. Mid and high level moisture
associated with a disturbance moving through the region will
bring a slight chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
with gusty winds through Wednesday, mainly near the mountains.
The marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal high
temperatures cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and
fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Visible and radar imagery is showing an easterly upper level wave
moving through the region, bringing mid and high level clouds and
some light radar returns which are likely producing only virga or
sprinkles. The 12Z Miramar sounding shows precipitable water
having increased to 1.48 inches, although the majority of the
moisture appears to be above 700 mb, with a dry layer noted below
700 mb until you reach the 10 deg C marine layer inversion near
1000 ft MSL. It is due to the dry layer below 700 mb that most of
the precipitation may evaporate before reaching the ground, which
is why most of it will appear as virga or maybe some sprinkles.
These clouds will continue to move through Southern California
through the day, although the moisture field from the NAM12 shows
clearing skies intruding in from the south in the afternoon. The
amount of cloud cover we have today, and which locations receive
more sunlight than others, will play a factor in not only how hot
we get today, but also the amount of day-time heating induced
instability. Due to the mid and high clouds, temperatures may be
reduced slightly compared to yesterday. However, with some higher
surface dewpoints in the area (low 60s shown currently over most
coast, valley and desert areas), it may feel more muggy and
uncomfortable.

Despite the increase in moisture and the wave moving overhead, the
elevated instability parameters shown by the forecast models for
this afternoon are not impressive. Also, the strong easterly flow
is not conducive for thunderstorms that develop over the mountains
to maintain their structure. Thus, the latest HRRR run doesn`t
show much shower or thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Nevertheless, a slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the
forecast today for the mountains, with some activity possibly
being blown west into the valleys.

Meanwhile, marine layer stratus was able to develop over coastal
areas today. Stratus should be able to clear out of inland areas by
late morning, although the decently strong inversion could keep
some low clouds hanging around at the coast.

Models show drier air intruding into Southern California Tuesday
as flow turns southerly in the wake of the easterly wave,
resulting in less of a chance for afternoon mountain
thunderstorms. However, the clearer skies and strong ridge over
the four corners region should result in hotter conditions, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Continued hot for inland areas on
Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures in the deserts reaching 27-29
deg C, and near 26-27 deg C in the valleys. A Heat Advisory
continues for the deserts, mountains and valleys through
Wednesday. Despite the ridge weakening on Thursday, looks like
the 850 mb temperatures do not decrease much, if at all, so hot
conditions may continue.

Cooler Friday into the weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest, with a deepening of the marine layer as well, resulting
in night and morning stratus into the coast and portions of the
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
271530Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of sct-bkn clouds based 800-1200
feet MSL with tops around 1800 ft MSL will burn back to out over the
coastal waters. Local vis 2-4 miles along higher coastal
terrain/mesas. After 28/06z this evening low clouds bkn-ovc based
800-1200 feet MSL with tops around 1800 ft MSL will push inland
about 15 miles with local visibilities 2-4 miles along higher
coastal terrain/mesas. There is a moderate risk that the coastal low
clouds will again be patchy so the confidence is low on the timing
and duration of the bkn low clouds at KSAN tonight.

Mountains and Deserts...Sct-bkn clouds based around 10000 feet MSL
with unrestricted visibilities. This afternoon between 27/19Z and
28/00Z isolated SHRA/TSRA with cloud bases  9000 ft MSL and tops to
35000 ft MSL will be possible over the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
830 am...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 am...The long period south swell will continue to decrease, but
3-5 foot surf will continue on the southwest facing beaches today.
The surf will lower to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Another long-period
south swell from 200 degrees will bring 4-7 foot surf to southwest
facing beaches late Wednesday and Thursday along with dangerous rip
currents.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slight chance of dry lightning over the mountains and portions of
the valleys this afternoon and evening, as an easterly wave moves
through the region. Drying will take place Tuesday through
Wednesday, with maybe just enough moisture leftover on Tuesday to
produce isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Small




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271550
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
850 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week over the higher Coastal Range and near the
Sierra crest south of Tahoe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Interior NorCal sandwiched between upper ridging over the
Intermountain West and upper troughing in the EPAC. Strong
subsidence over NorCal resulting in high temperatures running 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Triple digit heat will cover the
Central Valley again today with most areas topping out around
105 degrees F.

Delta breeze is weak but will trend up in the afternoons and
evenings. However marine layer is quite shallow and will have very
little cooling impact inland for the next several days. Highs
near the Delta will trend down 2 to 4 degrees each day through
Wednesday. In the Southern Sacramento Valley, only a 1 to 3 degree
drop is forecast each day with highs continuing to top out over
100 through Wednesday.

NAM12 showing only weak instability over the Coastal Range
mountains this afternoon but trends up Tuesday into Thursday along
with increasing PWS. May need to introduce a slight chance of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms towards the middle of the week
for that area. Some weaker afternoon instability also modeled
over the higher terrain of the southern Sierra Nevada, south of
Tahoe. Despite weaker instability, models showing some increasing
monsoonal moisture over that area Tuesday and Wednesday to support
a slight chance of afternoon deep moist convection.

Upper troughing increases through midweek into Thursday. This will
increase Delta flow and provide minor synoptic cooling over the
area. Most cooling will be felt near the Delta and portions of the
Southern Sac and Northern San Joaquin Valleys. Remainder of the
Central Valley will continue to see 3 digit high temps with the
foothills and mountains also remaining well above normal.

PCH

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

High pressure moves eastward in response to a weak trough
developing over the West Coast. This will lead to slight cooling
trend beginning Friday, along with onshore flow. Daytime highs
will be slightly above normal on Friday, with near-normal
temperatures through early next week. Temperatures mainly in the
90s across the Valley, with 70s and 80s across higher elevations. Dry
conditions are expected during the extended period.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours across TAF sites. Winds generally
less than 10 knots, except for occasional southwest gusts up to
20 knots near the Delta region in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271535
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
835 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions across
Northwest California will persist this week as a ridge of high
pressure remains over the western states. High temperatures will
warm into the 90s to over 100 degrees for interior locations while
mid 60s continue along the coast.


&&

.UPDATE...The forecast has been updated to match the current
cloud coverage. The morning sounding out of Medford confirms the
existence of a mid-level capping inversion, which should restrict
any convective development today if cumulus develops within the
rather dry atmosphere across the interior. A similar environment
is expected to be in place for the next couple of days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...The marine layer is firmly entrenched across the
North Coast this morning. Some partial clearing may occur along
the coast later this morning or afternoon but a few days of
cool and cloudy conditions along the coast is likely...due to the
current upper level ridge building aloft over the western states.
A weak upper-level shortwave will move northeast into the Pacific
Northwest today which should help with better mixing into Tuesday
so again perhaps some clearing is possible, especially by
Tuesday.  Sunny conditions and hot temperatures are in store
across the interior with highs exceeding 100 degrees in some
interior valley locations Monday through Thursday. Model soundings
continue to indicate a mid-level capping inversion Monday
afternoon, so no thunderstorms are anticipated as the previously
mentioned shortwave moves inland. Guidance has trended toward a
baggy trough settling over the Pacific Northwest and Northwest
California late in the week which should result in some cooling
back to near normal or slightly above normal temperatures. /RPA/JT

AVIATION...Widespread marine stratus coverage overnight. Nighttime
IR satellite imagery shows that Northwest California coast is
engulfed by the marine stratus. The back edge of the marine stratus
is about 250 miles from the coast. Do expect low cloud ceiling, with
LIFR category, will persist over the coastal area through the
morning into the afternoon. The profiler shows that the thickness of
the marine stratus layer is at least 2000 feet thick. With a strong
low-level inversion, do not expect much mixing to develop this
afternoon. The flight categories will probably be stuck in IFR.
Marine stratus will thicken tonight, bringing LIFR conditions back
to the coastal area. /RCL

MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through the week. Small craft
winds and seas on the outside waters will develop into gale force
winds and seas by tonight. Gale conditions will continue through
middle of the week.

The start of the forecast will feature a broad area of high pressure
over the East Pacific Ocean, and thermal trough over interior
California. These weather features combined will create a northerly
pressure gradient off the NW California coastal waters. Do expect
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 feet Monday. The
high pressure will intensify Monday evening, and that will lead to a
strengthening of the pressure gradient offshore. Do expect gale
force wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt for the outside waters to develop by
late tonight. The gale force winds will persist through the middle
of the week and beyond.

With increasing north winds, northerly short period waves will
increase and dominate through the forecast period. Expect seas to
build to 13 feet by Tuesday night, to 16 feet by Wednesday night.
The elevated seas are likely to continue through the end of the work
week. /RCL

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday FOR PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Tuesday FOR PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening FOR PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271205
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Aviation discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

At 09z at KLAX... the marine incursion is about 2400 feet deep.
The top is near 3300 feet with a temperature of about 31 degrees
Celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. The marine incursion is more developed this
morning than twenty four hours ago though with a thirty percent
chance that it may diminish in some locations currently impacted.
Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs. There is a sixty percent chance
that the marine incursion will redevelop prior to sunrise.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence
is primarily due to uncertainty in low CIGs and VSBYs affecting
the airport. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...27/230 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week... particularly to
the south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT this evening For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271205
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
505 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Aviation discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z...

At 09z at KLAX... the marine incursion is about 2400 feet deep.
The top is near 3300 feet with a temperature of about 31 degrees
Celsius.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. The marine incursion is more developed this
morning than twenty four hours ago though with a thirty percent
chance that it may diminish in some locations currently impacted.
Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs. There is a sixty percent chance
that the marine incursion will redevelop prior to sunrise.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. The reduced confidence
is primarily due to uncertainty in low CIGs and VSBYs affecting
the airport. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...27/230 AM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week... particularly to
the south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT this evening For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271145
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
445 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Very warm and dry inland through midweek...

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight shows
area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal locations
now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient more than 3
MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it to more
coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around 500 feet so
generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today will be the
same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the ridge of high
pressure across the southern half of the US expands a bit to the
north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to around 593 DM by
afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will warm an
additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:45 AM PDT Monday...For 12z TAFs. Profilers
show the marine layer is around 1000 feet deep with cigs hugging
the coast. Half Moon Bay, Monterey and Salinas are reporting
shallow ceilings around 200-300 feet. Given the shallow inversion
layer not expecting cigs into sf bay with the strong ridge keeping
the inversion layer shallow for next 24 hours. Strong west winds
expected thru the golden gate and san bruno gap.

Vicinity of KSFO...vfr skies this morning into tonight. Only
concern will be some gusty west winds this afternoon at ksfo with
gusts to around 30 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very shallow cigs less than 500 feet at
kmry and ksns early this morning should burn off by 16z with some
reduced vsbys. Then vfr this afternoon and early evening. Low cigs
to return again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 4:45 AM PDT Monday...Strong northerly winds will
continue over the waters with a tight surface pressure gradient in
place. the gusty northerly winds will produce some squared seas
while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well. the
strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of the
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
             SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: RWW


Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook and twitter at:
www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea




000
FXUS66 KHNX 271145
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
445 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LEADING
EDGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SW MONSOON IS SPREADING WESTWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, A LITTLE MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO, EXCEPT FOR BAKERSFIELD WHICH IS CURRENTLY 80 DEGREES
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND OFF THE TEHACHAPI`S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOST OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH SOME MODERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR VICINITY LAKE
ISABELLA DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JUNE 27 2016...UNHEALTHY IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES AND
SEQUOUIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KINGS...MADERA AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...99
AVN/FW...99
SYNOPSIS...99

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271141
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
441 AM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning a well defined inverted trof could be seen moving
westward across far southern/southwestern Arizona, and this feature
was clearly evident in vapor imagery as well as recent plot data.
Circulation around this feature was spreading increasing moisture
westward and into the desert west of Phoenix; latest blended total
precipitable water imagery indicated pwat values over 1.2 inches
over portions of the southwest deserts. The inverted trof created
good upper difluence across the central and western deserts and
coupled with a good uvv field, a field of mostly light showers could
be seen spreading into the western deserts at 2 am. As this inverted
trof slowly pushes west today we can expect a continued slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms across much of the lower deserts
to the west of Phoenix including portions of SE California. Later
this afternoon and evening across south central Arizona, the forcing
becomes weaker behind the exiting inverted trof but there is weak
southeast steering flow and sufficient deeper moisture and
instability to allow for a 15-20 percent chance of mainly evening
thunderstorms over the central deserts and a chance of storms over
higher terrain east of Phoenix. This is supported by various
mesoscale models such as the NMM6km. Clouds and moisture working
across the lower deserts will keep high temps today mostly below the
110 degree mark, even over the far western deserts.

Model guidance, including operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as
well as ensemble guidance such as the GEFS and NAEFS, continue to
call for a very monsoonal pattern to develop across the desert
southwest starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of the
work week. Initially the main upper high center forms near the four
corners, setting up a deeper southeast steering flow over most of
the area which will steadily transport increasing and deeper
moisture westward over the lower deserts. PWAT values steadily climb
and are forecast to exceed 1.5 inches across the main monsoon
moisture corridor which sets up just east of the lower Colorado
River Valley and extends into far eastern Arizona. The steering flow
is favorable to bring mountain storms into the lower deserts, and
from time to time there will be disturbances rotating around the
main upper high which will serve to enhance thunderstorm coverage
and intensity. Model guidance typically has a hard time with the
exact timing and track of these features and we generally cannot
place a lot of faith in them more than a day or two down the road.
Overall we are looking at a rather broad brushed forecast with 10-20
percent chances of mainly afternoon and evening storms over the
deserts mainly east of the lower CO river valley, and 30-40 percent
chances across the higher terrain east of Phoenix.

Later in the week the upper high starts to shift towards the
southeast and steering flow becomes more southerly. Still, moisture
remains high and in fact the GFS calls for PWAT value in the central
deserts to approach 2 inches later Thursday into Friday. This would
suggest a much better chance for heavy rains to accompany any storms
that develop. Of course, as moisture increases the temperatures will
fall off and by midweek high temps across south central Arizona will
approach and then fall below seasonal normals. It will stay a bit
hotter further west where the atmosphere is a bit drier, with highs
over 110 expected for much of the week.

During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn
towards the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in
drier air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to
diminish from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon,
thunderstorm chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain
areas east and southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly
sunny over the central and western deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds are
likely late this afternoon, but confidence in timing is still
somewhat low. Actual storms may not survive to lower elevations,
though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and frequent lightning for
arrivals/departures to the east may be problematic. Persistent
easterly winds this evening should occur earlier this normal. Sct to
bkn mid and high clouds should persist through Tuesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft range will persist through this afternoon with
some gradual thinning of cloud cover tonight. Virga showers this
morning over the terminals are likely and should dissipate by around
noon. While a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred through
this afternoon, winds will eventually become more southwesterly this
evening. A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods, especially this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS66 KSGX 271133
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
433 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will continue hot weather for inland areas
through Wednesday followed by slow cooling into next weekend as
high pressure aloft weakens and a weak trough of low pressure
develops near the California coast. Mid level moisture will bring
a slight chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms with
gusty winds through Wednesday...mainly near the mountains. The
marine layer and onshore flow will keep coastal high temperatures
cooler with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
High pressure aloft centered over Utah will strengthen through
Tuesday...then begin to weaken on Wednesday. High temperatures
for inland areas are expected to peak on Tuesday at 5 to 10
degrees above average...except 10 to 15 degrees above average for
the western valleys with high temperatures in the lower deserts
around 115...106 in the upper deserts...and 98 to 105 in the
Inland Empire. Slow cooling will begin on Wednesday. The marine
layer and onshore flow will continue areas of night and morning
coastal low clouds and fog extending into the far western valleys.
An easterly wave will bring mid and high level monsoonal moisture
into Southern California...peaking this afternoon through tonight
with the greatest moisture between 400 and 600 mb. Mid and high
clouds may keep inland high temperatures today a few degrees lower
than Sunday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening...mainly near the mountains. Given a
deep dry cloud cloud layer...any thunderstorms could produce
strong gusty winds with the potential for dry lightning as well.

This moisture will decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday...but should
be sufficient for afternoon clouds near the mountains and
possibly sufficient for a few thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
High pressure aloft will weaken as a weak trough of low pressure
develops near the California coast. This will bring slow inland
cooling into next weekend with drying of the mid level moisture.
High temperatures will return to near average for inland areas
for Friday through Sunday. Areas of night and morning coastal low
clouds and fog will extend into the western valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
271030Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of SCT-BKN008-012 TOPS 015 will
continue through 16Z within 15 miles of the coast with
local vis 2-4 miles along higher coastal terrain/mesas. Otherwise,
SCT-BKN100 will prevail through this evening with SCT-BKN007-010
developing again near the coast after 06Z tonight.

Mountains and Deserts...SCT-BKN100 will prevail with
unrestricted VIS. Between 19Z and 00Z, isolated SHRA/TSRA with cloud
bases 9000 ft MSL and tops to 35000 ft MSL will be possible over the
mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
330 am...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
330 am...The long period south swell will continue to decrease
overnight, but 3-5 foot surf will continue on the southwest facing
beaches today. The surf will lower to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday. Another
long-period south swell from 200 degrees will bring 4-7 foot surf to
southwest facing beaches late Wednesday and Thursday along with
dangerous rip currents.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271129
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
429 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions across
Northwest California will persist this week as a ridge of high
pressure remains over the western states. High temperatures will
warm into the 90s to over 100 degrees for interior locations while
mid 60s continue along the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The marine layer is firmly entrenched across the
North Coast this morning. Some partial clearing may occur along
the coast later this morning or afternoon but a few days of
cool and cloudy conditions along the coast is likely...due to the
current upper level ridge building aloft over the western states.
A weak upper-level shortwave will move northeast into the Pacific
Northwest today which should help with better mixing into Tuesday
so again perhaps some clearing is possible, especially by
Tuesday.  Sunny conditions and hot temperatures are in store
across the interior with highs exceeding 100 degrees in some
interior valley locations Monday through Thursday. Model soundings
continue to indicate a mid-level capping inversion Monday
afternoon, so no thunderstorms are anticipated as the previously
mentioned shortwave moves inland. Guidance has trended toward a
baggy trough settling over the Pacific Northwest and Northwest
California late in the week which should result in some cooling
back to near normal or slightly above normal temperatures. /RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread marine stratus coverage overnight. Nighttime
IR satellite imagery shows that Northwest California coast is
engulfed by the marine stratus. The back edge of the marine stratus
is about 250 miles from the coast. Do expect low cloud ceiling, with
LIFR category, will persist over the coastal area through the
morning into the afternoon. The profiler shows that the thickness of
the marine stratus layer is at least 2000 feet thick. With a strong
low-level inversion, do not expect much mixing to develop this
afternoon. The flight categories will probably be stuck in IFR.
Marine stratus will thicken tonight, bringing LIFR conditions back
to the coastal area. /RCL


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through the week. Small craft
winds and seas on the outside waters will develop into gale force
winds and seas by tonight. Gale conditions will continue through
middle of the week.

The start of the forecast will feature a broad area of high pressure
over the East Pacific Ocean, and thermal trough over interior
California. These weather features combined will create a northerly
pressure gradient off the NW California coastal waters. Do expect
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 feet Monday. The
high pressure will intensify Monday evening, and that will lead to a
strengthening of the pressure gradient offshore. Do expect gale
force wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt for the outside waters to develop by
late tonight. The gale force winds will persist through the middle
of the week and beyond.

With increasing north winds, northerly short period waves will
increase and dominate through the forecast period. Expect seas to
build to 13 feet by Tuesday night, to 16 feet by Wednesday night.
The elevated seas are likely to continue through the end of the work
week. /RCL


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday FOR PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Tuesday FOR PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening FOR PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png




000
FXUS66 KEKA 271129
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
429 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions across
Northwest California will persist this week as a ridge of high
pressure remains over the western states. High temperatures will
warm into the 90s to over 100 degrees for interior locations while
mid 60s continue along the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The marine layer is firmly entrenched across the
North Coast this morning. Some partial clearing may occur along
the coast later this morning or afternoon but a few days of
cool and cloudy conditions along the coast is likely...due to the
current upper level ridge building aloft over the western states.
A weak upper-level shortwave will move northeast into the Pacific
Northwest today which should help with better mixing into Tuesday
so again perhaps some clearing is possible, especially by
Tuesday.  Sunny conditions and hot temperatures are in store
across the interior with highs exceeding 100 degrees in some
interior valley locations Monday through Thursday. Model soundings
continue to indicate a mid-level capping inversion Monday
afternoon, so no thunderstorms are anticipated as the previously
mentioned shortwave moves inland. Guidance has trended toward a
baggy trough settling over the Pacific Northwest and Northwest
California late in the week which should result in some cooling
back to near normal or slightly above normal temperatures. /RPA/JT


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread marine stratus coverage overnight. Nighttime
IR satellite imagery shows that Northwest California coast is
engulfed by the marine stratus. The back edge of the marine stratus
is about 250 miles from the coast. Do expect low cloud ceiling, with
LIFR category, will persist over the coastal area through the
morning into the afternoon. The profiler shows that the thickness of
the marine stratus layer is at least 2000 feet thick. With a strong
low-level inversion, do not expect much mixing to develop this
afternoon. The flight categories will probably be stuck in IFR.
Marine stratus will thicken tonight, bringing LIFR conditions back
to the coastal area. /RCL


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through the week. Small craft
winds and seas on the outside waters will develop into gale force
winds and seas by tonight. Gale conditions will continue through
middle of the week.

The start of the forecast will feature a broad area of high pressure
over the East Pacific Ocean, and thermal trough over interior
California. These weather features combined will create a northerly
pressure gradient off the NW California coastal waters. Do expect
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10 feet Monday. The
high pressure will intensify Monday evening, and that will lead to a
strengthening of the pressure gradient offshore. Do expect gale
force wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt for the outside waters to develop by
late tonight. The gale force winds will persist through the middle
of the week and beyond.

With increasing north winds, northerly short period waves will
increase and dominate through the forecast period. Expect seas to
build to 13 feet by Tuesday night, to 16 feet by Wednesday night.
The elevated seas are likely to continue through the end of the work
week. /RCL


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday FOR PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Tuesday FOR PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening FOR PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Wednesday FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271035
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms
possible mid-week near the Sierra crest south of Tahoe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies cover interior NorCal early this morning with strong
high pressure overhead. Current temperatures are mild and
generally range from the 40s and 50s in the colder mountain
valleys to the 60s to mid 70s elsewhere.

Strong high pressure remains over the region through mid-week
before weakening slightly. Temperatures will inch up a bit more
the next few days with valley highs generally expected to top out
around 105, below daily record levels. We will continue to have
some flow through the Delta each day, but the marine layer will
remain shallow with little influence inland.

High pressure weakens Thursday as a weak trough is forecast to
develop. This is expected to allow the marine layer to deepen and
onshore flow to become more effective at providing some cooling to
Delta Breeze influenced areas.

Some monsoonal moisture will be making its way northward along
the Sierra crest Tuesday and Wednesday. Some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms may be possible south of Lake Tahoe.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
High pressure moves eastward in response to a weak trough
developing over the West Coast. This will lead to slight cooling
trend beginning Friday, along with onshore flow. Daytime highs
will be slightly above normal on Friday, with near-normal
temperatures through early next week. Temperatures mainly in the
90s across the Valley, with 70s and 80s across higher elevations.
Dry conditions are expected during the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours across TAF sites. Winds
generally less than 10 knots, except for occasional southwest
gusts up to 20 knots near the Delta region.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271011
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
310 AM MST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning a well defined inverted trof could be seen moving
westward across far southern/southwestern Arizona, and this feature
was clearly evident in vapor imagery as well as recent plot data.
Circulation around this feature was spreading increasing moisture
westward and into the desert west of Phoenix; latest blended total
precipitable water imagery indicated pwat values over 1.2 inches
over portions of the southwest deserts. The inverted trof created
good upper difluence across the central and western deserts and
coupled with a good uvv field, a field of mostly light showers could
be seen spreading into the western deserts at 2 am. As this inverted
trof slowly pushes west today we can expect a continued slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms across much of the lower deserts
to the west of Phoenix including portions of SE California. Later
this afternoon and evening across south central Arizona, the forcing
becomes weaker behind the exiting inverted trof but there is weak
southeast steering flow and sufficient deeper moisture and
instability to allow for a 15-20 percent chance of mainly evening
thunderstorms over the central deserts and a chance of storms over
higher terrain east of Phoenix. This is supported by various
mesoscale models such as the NMM6km. Clouds and moisture working
across the lower deserts will keep high temps today mostly below the
110 degree mark, even over the far western deserts.

Model guidance, including operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as
well as ensemble guidance such as the GEFS and NAEFS, continue to
call for a very monsoonal pattern to develop across the desert
southwest starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of the
work week. Initially the main upper high center forms near the four
corners, setting up a deeper southeast steering flow over most of
the area which will steadily transport increasing and deeper
moisture westward over the lower deserts. PWAT values steadily climb
and are forecast to exceed 1.5 inches across the main monsoon
moisture corridor which sets up just east of the lower Colorado
River Valley and extends into far eastern Arizona. The steering flow
is favorable to bring mountain storms into the lower deserts, and
from time to time there will be disturbances rotating around the
main upper high which will serve to enhance thunderstorm coverage
and intensity. Model guidance typically has a hard time with the
exact timing and track of these features and we generally cannot
place a lot of faith in them more than a day or two down the road.
Overall we are looking at a rather broad brushed forecast with 10-20
percent chances of mainly afternoon and evening storms over the
deserts mainly east of the lower CO river valley, and 30-40 percent
chances across the higher terrain east of Phoenix. Later in the week
the upper high starts to shift towards the southeast and steering
flow becomes more southerly. Still, moisture remains high and in
fact the GFS calls for PWAT value in the central deserts to approach
2 inches later Thursday into Friday. This would suggest a much
better chance for heavy rains to accompany any storms that develop.
Of course, as moisture increases the temperatures will fall off and
by midweek high temps across south central Arizona will approach and
then fall below seasonal normals. It will stay a bit hotter further
west where the atmosphere is a bit drier, with highs over 110
expected for much of the week.

During the upcoming weekend, as low pressure sets up along the
Pacific northwest coast, and as the high shifts further to the
southeast, the upper streamline fields and steering flow turn
towards the southwest over most of the area. This starts to bring in
drier air from the southwest and we can expect rain chances to
diminish from west to east with time. By Sunday afternoon,
thunderstorm chances look to be confined mostly to higher terrain
areas east and southeast of central Phoenix as skies become mostly
sunny over the central and western deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Low confidence forecast through Monday afternoon as wind
direction/shifts will be dictated by outflow boundaries traveling
from storms more removed from terminal sites. Southwest winds this
evening will shift to an easterly direction earlier than typical due
to outflow propagating from eastern AZ, but timing is very
uncertain. Cigs 12K-15K ft and occasional virga will be common
through Monday morning.

Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds will
arrive later Monday afternoon. Actual storms may not survive to
lower elevations, though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and
frequent lightning for arrivals/departures to the east may be
problematic.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft will increase through Monday with occasional
virga, and possibly a few showers reaching the ground at KIPL. While
a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred, periods of
variability will be common Monday morning (especially around
showers). A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods. Forecast confidence is only moderate.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS66 KMTR 271007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
307 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Very warm and dry inland through midweek...

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight shows
area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal locations
now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient more than 3
MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it to more
coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around 500 feet so
generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today will be the
same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the ridge of high
pressure across the southern half of the US expands a bit to the
north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to around 593 DM by
afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will warm an
additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:43 PM PDT Sunday...For 06z TAFs. Clear skies
prevail across area terminals this evening. A thin layer of
stratus persist along the coast north of the Monterey Bay. The
marine layer remains shallow therefore very limited inland
intrusion is expected tonight. Have kept low clouds out of most
terminals overnight with the exception of the Monterey area
terminals which will see stratus possibly push in late tonight.
Light to locally variable winds expected overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.
High confidence through late tonight. Moderate confidence that
cigs will stay out all night. Moderate west winds will ease becoming
light overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through late
tonight. Cigs anticipated to return after 08z. IFR to LIFR cigs
possible overnight. Moderate to low confidence with the timing of
the cigs. Light to moderate onshore flow becoming light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:46 PM PDT Sunday...A tight pressure gradient
will set up around Cape Mendocino keeping strong northerly winds
over the waters at least through midweek. The strongest winds will
be offshore producing fresh seas across the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: SIMS/CW


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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271007
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
307 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Very warm and dry inland through midweek...

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Satellite overnight shows
area of clouds just off the coast with a few coastal locations
now seeing patchy fog. Thanks to the surface gradient more than 3
MB from west to east some of the clouds should make it to more
coastal spots. The marine layer has compressed to around 500 feet so
generally little inland push is forecast. Highs today will be the
same or even a few degrees warmer than Sunday as the ridge of high
pressure across the southern half of the US expands a bit to the
north and west. 500 MB heights will increase to around 593 DM by
afternoon (increase of 1 DM) while 925 temps will warm an
additional degree.

Highs will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with 80s and 90s
for most inland communities. Far interior areas will be in the 95
to 105 range. Heat impact levels indicate the worst impact will be
in sparsely populated southern Monterey County while urban
locations will generally be in the slight risk. Tuesday will be
very similar to today as the synoptic pattern is a virtual repeat.

The ridge will slightly flatten starting on Wednesday and 925 MB
temps will gradually drop as a weak system passes to our north the
second half of the week. Coastal spots will see only minor changes
while far inland areas will drop 10 to 17 degrees by Saturday. On
that day Napa Count will just have upper 70s to lower 90s instead
of the 90s to lower 100s.

The ridge will build back to our region next work week helping to
boost inland highs back to very warm levels. Still looks like a
very warm and dry Fourth of July.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:43 PM PDT Sunday...For 06z TAFs. Clear skies
prevail across area terminals this evening. A thin layer of
stratus persist along the coast north of the Monterey Bay. The
marine layer remains shallow therefore very limited inland
intrusion is expected tonight. Have kept low clouds out of most
terminals overnight with the exception of the Monterey area
terminals which will see stratus possibly push in late tonight.
Light to locally variable winds expected overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.
High confidence through late tonight. Moderate confidence that
cigs will stay out all night. Moderate west winds will ease becoming
light overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through late
tonight. Cigs anticipated to return after 08z. IFR to LIFR cigs
possible overnight. Moderate to low confidence with the timing of
the cigs. Light to moderate onshore flow becoming light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:46 PM PDT Sunday...A tight pressure gradient
will set up around Cape Mendocino keeping strong northerly winds
over the waters at least through midweek. The strongest winds will
be offshore producing fresh seas across the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: SIMS/CW


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271002
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
302 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...
LOCATION... AND INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY SITES. THE MARINE INCURSION IS MORE DEVELOPED
TONIGHT THAN TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO THOUGH WITH A THIRTY PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT MAY DIMINISH IN SOME LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IMPACTED.
THERE IS A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS OCCURING
AT KBUR AND KVNY 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE MARINE INCURSION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT. THERE IS A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS 10Z- 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

27/230 AM

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week... particularly to
the south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT this evening For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271002
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
302 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Hot 597 dm upper high over utah will bring 594 dm hgts to ca. The
marine layer is about 900 feet deep. The eddy has again shifted a
little to the west and has pulled the low clouds away from the
l.a. coast and up into the vta and sba coasts. It will be sunny
everywhere by afternoon but the low clouds will be lurking just
off the beaches south of Pt Conception. Temps are the big story
today just enough added humidity today to push heat index values
(a combination of temperature and humidity) to near 105 degrees in
the valleys and 100 degrees in the vta and la mtns (including the
santa m0nicas). the central coast will have another burst of
morning heat followed by afternoon cooling with the seabreeze. There
will be just enough moisture to warrant a slight chc of an
afternoon tstm over the eastern san gabriels this afternoon.

Hard to forecast the exact position of the eddy so tonight`s
forecast of low clouds for the coastal sections south of point
conception may be wrong for L.A. County if the eddy pulls the
clouds westward again.

Tuesday will look much like today. A little drier aloft so no real
tstm threat. Will have to see how todays heat warnings work out
and then make decisions for any heat products needed Tuesday.

Looks like the marine layer stratus deck will push into the
central coast Tuesday night. The eddy is much weaker and the low
clouds will remain confined to the la coast.

The upper high sort of falls apart on Wednesday and the hgts drop
to 591 dm. That will lower the interior temps some. better onshore
flow both to the east and north will bring an earlier and stronger
sea breeze which will help to cool down the coasts and vlys (esp
the coasts)

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Very bland extended forecast. On Thursday the upper ridge pushes
to the east and very weak cyclonic flow associated with and upper
low off the BC coast moves over the state. Then there is very
little change to the synoptic pattern. Onshore flow slowly
increases both to the east and north. Night through morning low
clouds will slowly expand over the coasts but the hgts are high
enough to keep them out of the vlys. Max temps will fall to near
normal by Friday and might even be blo normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/06Z

OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...
LOCATION... AND INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY SITES. THE MARINE INCURSION IS MORE DEVELOPED
TONIGHT THAN TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO THOUGH WITH A THIRTY PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT MAY DIMINISH IN SOME LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IMPACTED.
THERE IS A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBYS OCCURING
AT KBUR AND KVNY 10Z-17Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE MARINE INCURSION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT. THERE IS A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS 10Z- 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

27/230 AM

Northwest winds will remain strong across the northern and
central outer waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
persisting through at least early Wednesday morning. Winds and
seas in the inner coastal waters will be near Small Craft
Advisory level at times this morning and tonight.

Patchy dense fog in the coastal waters is possible in the
overnight and morning hours through the week... particularly to
the south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8
      PM PDT this evening For zones 44>46-53-54-547-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS65 KREV 270923
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
223 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Typical afternoon and evening breezes return this week as triple
digit heat spreads across western Nevada. Moisture will gradually
build south of Highway 50 where the threat for a few thunderstorms
will return Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A strong upper level ridge will maintain hot weather this week with
high temperatures today approaching triple digits for western
Nevada. Reno will have a shot at 100 today but better chances will
occur on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sierra valleys will heat up into the
upper 80s to lower 90s through mid-week. Forecast highs are
generally a degree or two below record levels although it would not
be out of the question for a few records to be broken.

Dry conditions will continue with little in the way of cloud cover
until Tuesday afternoon where weak moisture transport begins to
reach southern Mono and Mineral counties. Destabilization from
daytime heating coupled with the modest moisture increase should
allow for cumulus build ups and even an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across the southern Sierra Tuesday afternoon, with a
better potential on Wednesday. Isolated storms may reach as far
north as the Pine Nuts on Wednesday but not likely much farther
northward due to a sharp low-level moisture gradient and a drier air
airmass existing roughly north of Hwy 50. Any storm development will
likely have a good potential of producing strong outflow winds in
the 50-60 mph range due to a very dry subcloud layer (inverted-V
sounding) which promotes efficient evaporative cooling and strong
downdraft development. Fuentes


.Long Term (Thursday Onward)...

Weak to moderate troughing along the west coast will influence the
regions weather. Messaging focus will be on thunderstorm chances
Thursday and Friday, with potential for cooler and breezier pattern
Sunday-Monday next week but low confidence.

With upper trough more or less settled along the west coast late
week into the holiday weekend, region will be along dividing line of
dry southwest flow aloft versus monsoon moisture over the central
and eastern Great Basin. Will continue isolated thunderstorms for
areas south of Hwy 50 Thursday and Friday afternoons where
convergence and instability line up. With shortwaves coming out of
the main west coast trough plus 500-300mb lapse rates near 8, GFS is
hinting at isolated storms continuing Thursday night into Friday
morning across the Great Basin.

Into the holiday weekend and early next week we start seeing more
substantial differences in the simulations with GFS developing a
rather anomalous trough over the west (much cooler and breezier)
while ECMWF has the same feature just not nearly as amplified
(warmer, less wind). Either way we will maintain the dry forecast
with typical daily breezes, but there`s potential for more wind and
critical fire weather conditions starting Monday if the GFS solution
pans out. -Chris

&&

.Aviation...

No significant weather issues for aviation today with typical
afternoon-evening westerly breezes and VFR conditions. Buildups are
likely this afternoon over the central and southern Sierra around
MMH as moisture slowly increases aloft. Temperatures will be quite
warm today and through Thursday, near 100 at RNO and 85-90 MMH/TVL,
so there could be some density altitude issues depending on aircraft
type and weight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, Wednesday afternoons
mainly in the central, southern Sierra and nearby high terrain such
as the Sweetwater Range and White Mtns. Wednesday looks to be the
most active day. Not anticipating storms near RNO/TVL as flow aloft
looks to be too dry, but MMH could see high based cells nearby each
afternoon with strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning. -Chris

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




000
FXUS66 KLOX 270559
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1059 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Aviation discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...made minor updates to the forecast package for tonight,
mainly with respect to winds over the Los Angeles County coast
and valley zones where winds are slightly stronger than expected.
Gust to 15 mph are observed along the coast with local gusts 20 to
25 mph over the valleys. Otherwise, the forecast appears on track
with a rather shallow marine layer in place that will likely
produce patchy dense fog over the Coastal Waters and possibly over
the coastal basins.

Another hot day on tap for Monday. Mid to upper level moisture
moving over the area on Monday will produce some cloud cover and a
rising humidity.

As high pressure builds over Southwest California from the east,
temperatures are expected to rise a couple of degrees in most
areas. Mid to upper level moisture moving into the area from the
southeast will produce some cloud cover and rising humidity. The
combination of heat and humidity may result in excessive heat over
interior areas. However, with increasing cloud cover, the heating
may be offset somewhat...especially over L.A. County. Will allow
the midnight shift to determine the need for an excessive heat
watch or warning for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

The latest satellite imagery shows convection developing this
afternoon with a vorticity maximum over the Sonoran Desert today.
This vort max will move northwest into Southern California
through Monday night or Tuesday and like bring an increase in
middle and high level cloud cover. This will likely plays tricks
with the marine layer, possibly limiting coverage over Los Angeles
County over the next several days. Moisture along with a conducive
flow pattern could arrive soon enough to produce isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains on Monday
afternoon and evening. PoPs have been increased across Eastern Los
Angeles County. Low confidence exists in the PoPs as model
solutions do not have a great handle on the scenario. Highest
confidence exists in the scenario that has been forecast, but
there is a chance that showers and thunderstorms could spill over
into the Los Angeles County Valleys between Monday evening and
Tuesday. With the added moisture, some concern exists that
critical and dangerously hot conditions could develop for Monday.
Excessive heat products continue to be mulled over as more data
arrive. The main hold up the amount of added moisture and if the
heat will materialize.

Southwest flow aloft developing on Tuesday should start to bring some
cooling to area. Onshore flow should gradually increase after
Tuesday and bring a tad better cooling for Wednesday. A better
marine layer coverage could develop for Tuesday night and into
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

500 mb heights decline into Thursday, then level off for the
latter half of next week as the ridge aloft weakens and starts to
recenter east. Onshore pressure gradients increase slightly in
the light to moderate southwest flow aloft for late week. A
cooling trend continues in the forecast for now, but the cooling
trend could be a bit less drastic than what the current forecast
indicates.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. The marine incursion is more developed
tonight than twenty four hours ago though with a thirty percent
chance that it may diminish in some locations currently impacted.
There is a ten percent chance of low CIGs and/or VSBYs occurring
at KBUR and KVNY 10Z-17Z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions
will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs. There is a thirty percent chance
that the marine incursion will diminish prior to sunrise. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in low CIGs and VSBYs
affecting the airport. There is a ten percent chance of low CIGs
and/or VSBYs 10Z-17Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters from
Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island with small craft conditions
expected to persist through at least Monday night. There is a 60
percent chance that small craft conditions will continue beyond
that period. Local gusts to 35 kt are expected at times tonight,
with a 30 percent chance of reaching Gale Warning criteria across
the same area Monday night. Small craft conditions look good to
expire later tonight for the outer water from Santa Cruz to San
Nicolas Island. However, local gusts to 25 kt will be possible to
the northwest of San Nicolas Island through tonight and again
Monday night.
Small craft advisory winds/seas will likely make their way into
the inner coastal waters from Point Sal to Piedras Blancas at
times through Monday night. There will be a 30 percent chance of
Small craft advisory conditions for this area Monday night.

Patchy dense fog is likely again tonight and could form just
about anywhere.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Smith
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KLOX 270559
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1059 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Aviation discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...made minor updates to the forecast package for tonight,
mainly with respect to winds over the Los Angeles County coast
and valley zones where winds are slightly stronger than expected.
Gust to 15 mph are observed along the coast with local gusts 20 to
25 mph over the valleys. Otherwise, the forecast appears on track
with a rather shallow marine layer in place that will likely
produce patchy dense fog over the Coastal Waters and possibly over
the coastal basins.

Another hot day on tap for Monday. Mid to upper level moisture
moving over the area on Monday will produce some cloud cover and a
rising humidity.

As high pressure builds over Southwest California from the east,
temperatures are expected to rise a couple of degrees in most
areas. Mid to upper level moisture moving into the area from the
southeast will produce some cloud cover and rising humidity. The
combination of heat and humidity may result in excessive heat over
interior areas. However, with increasing cloud cover, the heating
may be offset somewhat...especially over L.A. County. Will allow
the midnight shift to determine the need for an excessive heat
watch or warning for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

The latest satellite imagery shows convection developing this
afternoon with a vorticity maximum over the Sonoran Desert today.
This vort max will move northwest into Southern California
through Monday night or Tuesday and like bring an increase in
middle and high level cloud cover. This will likely plays tricks
with the marine layer, possibly limiting coverage over Los Angeles
County over the next several days. Moisture along with a conducive
flow pattern could arrive soon enough to produce isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains on Monday
afternoon and evening. PoPs have been increased across Eastern Los
Angeles County. Low confidence exists in the PoPs as model
solutions do not have a great handle on the scenario. Highest
confidence exists in the scenario that has been forecast, but
there is a chance that showers and thunderstorms could spill over
into the Los Angeles County Valleys between Monday evening and
Tuesday. With the added moisture, some concern exists that
critical and dangerously hot conditions could develop for Monday.
Excessive heat products continue to be mulled over as more data
arrive. The main hold up the amount of added moisture and if the
heat will materialize.

Southwest flow aloft developing on Tuesday should start to bring some
cooling to area. Onshore flow should gradually increase after
Tuesday and bring a tad better cooling for Wednesday. A better
marine layer coverage could develop for Tuesday night and into
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

500 mb heights decline into Thursday, then level off for the
latter half of next week as the ridge aloft weakens and starts to
recenter east. Onshore pressure gradients increase slightly in
the light to moderate southwest flow aloft for late week. A
cooling trend continues in the forecast for now, but the cooling
trend could be a bit less drastic than what the current forecast
indicates.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAFs. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing...
location... and intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs for coastal and
adjacent valley sites. The marine incursion is more developed
tonight than twenty four hours ago though with a thirty percent
chance that it may diminish in some locations currently impacted.
There is a ten percent chance of low CIGs and/or VSBYs occurring
at KBUR and KVNY 10Z-17Z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions
will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in the timing and
intensity of low CIGs and VSBYs. There is a thirty percent chance
that the marine incursion will diminish prior to sunrise. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. The reduced
confidence is primarily due to uncertainty in low CIGs and VSBYs
affecting the airport. There is a ten percent chance of low CIGs
and/or VSBYs 10Z-17Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters from
Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island with small craft conditions
expected to persist through at least Monday night. There is a 60
percent chance that small craft conditions will continue beyond
that period. Local gusts to 35 kt are expected at times tonight,
with a 30 percent chance of reaching Gale Warning criteria across
the same area Monday night. Small craft conditions look good to
expire later tonight for the outer water from Santa Cruz to San
Nicolas Island. However, local gusts to 25 kt will be possible to
the northwest of San Nicolas Island through tonight and again
Monday night.
Small craft advisory winds/seas will likely make their way into
the inner coastal waters from Point Sal to Piedras Blancas at
times through Monday night. There will be a 30 percent chance of
Small craft advisory conditions for this area Monday night.

Patchy dense fog is likely again tonight and could form just
about anywhere.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Smith
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS66 KMTR 270543
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1043 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Very warm and dry inland through midweek...

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:46 PM PDT Sunday...It was a very warm if
not hot day for the inland land locations with several sites
topping 100 degrees! Concord Airport reached 101,Livermore Airport
100, Gilroy 101, Pinnacles Natl Monument 103 and Fort Hunter 106.
Along the immediate coast it was a different story with Monterey
Airport reaching 64, San Francisco Intl Airport 72 and 59 at
Halfmoon Bay Airport. Mostly clear skies should help most areas to
cool off overnight back into mid 50s. However, areas above 1500
feet elevation will only cool into the mid to upper 70s.

The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of
high pressure positioned over California with an upper level low
pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The 0000Z GFS20 and 1200Z
ECMWF have initialized well with the current synoptic weather
pattern and remain in good agreement through midweek. Both models
maintain a strong ridge of high pressure over the forecast area
through midweek with 850mb temperatures reaching 25 to 26 degrees
Celsius, so expect the hot inland temperatures to continue. By
Wednesday night a trough of low pressure moves into Northern
California flattening the upper level ridge. This should be enough
to bring afternoon high temperatures back down to seasonal normals
for the second half of the week. The current forecast package
looks good and handles the current and expected weather well so no
updates are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:43 PM PDT Sunday...For 06z TAFs. Clear skies
prevail across area terminals this evening. A thin layer of
stratus persist along the coast north of the Monterey Bay. The
marine layer remains shallow therefore very limited inland
intrusion is expected tonight. Have kept low clouds out of most
terminals overnight with the exception of the Monterey area
terminals which will see stratus possibly push in late tonight.
Light to locally variable winds expected overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.
High confidence through late tonight. Moderate confidence that
cigs will stay out all night. Moderate west winds will ease becoming
light overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through late
tonight. Cigs anticipated to return after 08z. IFR to LIFR cigs
possible overnight. Moderate to low confidence with the timing of
the cigs. Light to moderate onshore flow becoming light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:46 PM PDT Sunday...A tight pressure gradient
will set up around Cape Mendocino keeping strong northerly winds
over the waters at least through midweek. The strongest winds will
be offshore producing fresh seas across the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: SIMS/CW


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000
FXUS66 KSGX 270440
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
940 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will keep the hot conditions in place through
midweek, before a week cooling trend develops towards weeks end.
Inland areas will feel the brunt of the heat, while the marine
layer limits heating at the coast and allows for patchy night and
morning low clouds and fog. A brief push of midlevel moisture will
bring more clouds, and a slight chance of afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms near the mountains on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 915 PM the west to east axis of a 500 MB ridge was positioned
just to our north, with a weak easterly wave propagating westward
over Sonora Mexico. Midlevel clouds were increasing over Imperial
County and the PW on the 00z NKX sounding had risen to 1.36
inches, indicating increasing moisture over SoCal.

The forecast for Monday is an interesting one, with both heat and
a slight chance of thunderstorms on tap for our region. Confidence
is high that Monday will be another hot day for inland areas,
however actual highs may be couple degrees cooler than Sunday if
midlevel clouds remain prevalent through the afternoon. Forecast
PWs for Monday look like they will be in the 1.2-1.4 inch range.
This along with afternoon heating over the higher terrain and the
presence of the aforementioned weak easterly wave may create just
CAPE for a few isolated convective cells over the mountains and
western valleys in the afternoon and evening. Any convective
activity will have to deal with prevailing easterly winds of
15-25 kts between 800-400 MB, which could shear off any CU before
it gets going in the low CAPE environment. With this in mind,
activity should be minimal tomorrow, with any potential impacts
likely limited to just a couple of dry lightning strikes.

The moisture should mostly exit our region by Tuesday, leaving us
with a slowly weakening 500 MB ridge. This will keep temperatures on
the hotter side through midweek and could leave Tuesday and
Wednesday as the two hottest days for the Coachella Valley. High
temperatures along the coast should continue to be moderated by a
shallow marine layer with areas of night and morning low clouds
and fog.

All areas will see a weak cooling trend toward the end of the
week, though temperatures should remain a few degrees above
average for the entire region through the weekend. The bulk of
the monsoonal moisture is expected to stay to our east over the AZ
after Tuesday, though there is a slight chance for a weak push of
monsoonal moisture next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
270300Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN008-012 TOPS 015 along the coast
spreading 15-20 miles inland through 15Z with local vis 2-4
miles along higher coastal terrain/mesas. Clearing back to the
coastal airports between 15-17Z Monday, with areas of BKN010
lingering at the coast and over the coastal waters into the
afternoon.

Mountains and Deserts...Tonight through 18Z Monday. Aft 18Z,
SCT-BKN100-200 with isolated SHRA/TSRA over the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
800 pm...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
     San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Albright
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede




000
FXUS66 KMTR 270345
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
845 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Very warm and dry inland through midweek...

.SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather is expected to continue with
very warm temperatures for inland spots and cool temperatures
near the coast. Some cooling is anticipated around the forecast
area for the second half of the week as a weak system to the
north moves near our region. The outlook for the Fourth of July
holiday weekend calls for dry weather along with gradual warming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:46 PM PDT Sunday...It was a very warm if
not hot day for the inland land locations with several sites
topping 100 degrees! Concord Airport reached 101,Livermore Airport
100, Gilroy 101, Pinnacles Natl Monument 103 and Fort Hunter 106.
Along the immediate coast it was a different story with Monterey
Airport reaching 64, San Francisco Intl Airport 72 and 59 at
Halfmoon Bay Airport. Mostly clear skies should help most areas to
cool off overnight back into mid 50s. However, areas above 1500
feet elevation will only cool into the mid to upper 70s.

The current satellite water vapour image is showing a ridge of
high pressure positioned over California with an upper level low
pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The 0000Z GFS20 and 1200Z
ECMWF have initialized well with the current synoptic weather
pattern and remain in good agreement through midweek. Both models
maintain a strong ridge of high pressure over the forecast area
through midweek with 850mb temperatures reaching 25 to 26 degrees
Celsius, so expect the hot inland temperatures to continue. By
Wednesday night a trough of low pressure moves into Northern
California flattening the upper level ridge. This should be enough
to bring afternoon high temperatures back down to seasonal normals
for the second half of the week. The current forecast package
looks good and handles the current and expected weather well so no
updates are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:55 PM PDT Sunday...For 00z TAFs. Skies remain
clear across area terminals this afternoon. A thin layer of
stratus persist along or just off the entire stretch of the
coastline. The marine layer remains fairly shallow at around 1000
feet per the Fort Ord Profiler. Therefore very limited inland
intrusion expected tonight. have kept low clouds out of most
terminals overnight with the exception of the Monterey area
terminals which will see stratus push in early this evening and
tonight. Light to moderate onshore seabreeze anticipated to
continue through early evening becoming light and variable
overnight.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.
High confidence through late this evening. Moderate confidence
that cigs will stay out all night. Moderate west seabreeze will
ease after sunset this evening becoming light overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through early
this evening. Cigs anticipated to return over MRY after 04z with
cigs returning to KSNS after 08z. IFR to LIFR cigs possible
overnight. Moderate to low confidence with the timing of the
cigs. Light to moderate onshore flow becoming light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:15 PM PDT Sunday...A tight pressure gradient
will set up around Cape Mendocino keeping strong northerly winds
over the waters at least through midweek. The strongest winds
will be offshore producing fresh seas across the region.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 12 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Sims


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000
FXUS66 KLOX 270342
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
842 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure building aloft will support continued hot
conditions away from the coast through Wednesday. High pressure
will likely weaken and shift eastward for the second half of the
week resulting in a gradual cooling trend heading into next
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Minor updates to the forecast package for tonight,
mainly with respect to winds over the Los Angeles County coast
and valley zones where winds are slightly stronger than expected.
Gust to 15 mph are observed along the coast with local gusts 20 to
25 mph over the valleys. Otherwise, the forecast appears on track
with a rather shallow marine layer in place that will likely
produce patchy dense fog over the Coastal Waters and possibly over
the coastal basins.

Another hot day is on tap for Southwest California Monday, with
temperatures expected to rise a couple of degrees in most areas.
Mid to upper level moisture moving into the area from the
southeast will produce some cloud cover and rising humidity. In
addition, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
San Gabriel Mountains Monday afternoon and evening as moisture
increases aloft along with a corresponding increase in
instability.

The combination of heat and humidity may also result in
excessive heat over interior areas. However, with increasing cloud
cover, the heating may be offset somewhat...especially over L.A.
County. Will allow the midnight shift to determine the need for an
excessive heat watch or warning for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUN-WED)

The latest satellite imagery shows convection developing this
afternoon with a vorticity maximum over the Sonoran Desert today.
This vort max will move northwest into Southern California
through Monday night or Tuesday and like bring an increase in
middle and high level cloud cover. This will likely plays tricks
with the marine layer, possibly limiting coverage over Los Angeles
County over the next several days. Moisture along with a conducive
flow pattern could arrive soon enough to produce isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the San Gabriel Mountains on Monday
afternoon and evening. PoPs have been increased across Eastern Los
Angeles County. Low confidence exists in the PoPs as model
solutions do not have a great handle on the scenario. Highest
confidence exists in the scenario that has been forecast, but
there is a chance that showers and thunderstorms could spill over
into the Los Angeles County Valleys between Monday evening and
Tuesday. With the added moisture, some concern exists that
critical and dangerously hot conditions could develop for Monday.
Excessive heat products continue to be mulled over as more data
arrive. The main hold up the amount of added moisture and if the
heat will materialize.

Southwest flow aloft developing on Tuesday should start to bring some
cooling to area. Onshore flow should gradually increase after
Tuesday and bring a tad better cooling for Wednesday. A better
marine layer coverage could develop for Tuesday night and into
Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)


500 mb heights decline into Thursday, then level off for the
latter half of next week as the ridge aloft weakens and starts to
recenter east. Onshore pressure gradients increase slightly in
the light to moderate southwest flow aloft for late week. A
cooling trend continues in the forecast for now, but the cooling
trend could be a bit less drastic than what the current forecast
indicates.


&&

.AVIATION...27/0000Z.

At 2200Z at KLAX...there was a surface based inversion. The top
of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a temperature of about
32 degrees Celsius.

Lower to moderate confidence in the near-coastal areas due to
uncertaintly in marine layer cloud coverage for the overnight
period...and high confidence in vfr conditions elsewhere. Low
clouds are most likely to affect the Los Angeles County coastal
sites...KOXR and KSMX. For other coastal sites...there is a 20%
chance that lifr cigs will affect KSBP...and KSBA is low
confidence overall.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00z taf. The timing of low cloud
arrival may differ by up to 2 hrs from taf time of 04z.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18z TAF forecast as VFR conditions
will persist into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...26/830 PM...

Northwest winds will remain strong across the outer waters from
Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island with small craft conditions
expected to persist through at least Monday night. There is a 60
percent chance that small craft conditions will continue beyond
that period. Local gusts to 35 kt are expected at times tonight,
with a 30 percent chance of reaching Gale Warning criteria across
the same area Monday night. Small craft conditions look good to
expire later tonight for the outer water from Santa Cruz to San
Nicolas Island. However, local gusts to 25 kt will be possible to
the northwest of San Nicolas Island through tonight and again
Monday night.
Small craft advisory winds/seas will likely make their way into
the inner coastal waters from Point Sal to Piedras Blancas at
times through Monday night. There will be a 30 percent chance of
Small craft advisory conditions for this area Monday night.

Patchy dense fog is likely again tonight and could form just
about anywhere.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday For
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday For zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Munroe
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles




000
FXUS65 KPSR 270230
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 PM MST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined circulation center was quite evident in WV imagery
across far northern Sonora this evening with stronger ascent and
upper divergent signatures analyzed throughout SE AZ. 00Z KTWC
sampled rather modest Sfc-H7 8 g/kg mixing ratios, however deep
layer moisture flux has advected more favorable 10-11 g/kg profiles
northward per objective analysis. Given the general UVV and weakly
capped MLCapes around 500 J/kg, more robust convection has developed
along the I-19 corridor. Closer towards central AZ, reduced daytime
insolation and lower moisture values (closer to 7 g/kg mixing
ratios) have yielded negligible instability despite relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates. Thus, while virga/sprinkles/very light showers
may be possible around the Phoenix metro, convection moving north
may meet a fate of dissipation. Will continue to monitor trends
through the evening, and would be most concerned about stronger
outflows and dust production versus actual storms.

One area of somewhat more concern may be through SW AZ where some
more palpable instability has been analyzed, and
vorticity/divergence fields will translate during the overnight.
Several deterministic models and ensemble means suggest midlevel
moisture lifted towards a steeper lapse rate environment while low
level T/Td spreads narrow. There was enough evidence presented in
models and analysis to increase pops and mention showers through the
SW parts of the CWA later tonight. Otherwise, made some substantial
changes to hourly temperatures based on current trends which were
much cooler than previously advertised.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/240 PM MST SUN JUN 26 2016/
Monday through Saturday...
The forecast becomes very complicated this week with respect to
shower/thunderstorm potential, coverage, and intensity - mainly
across portions of southwest and south central AZ. In other words,
can we call it quasi-unsettled this week?

We know the monsoon moisture boundary arrived in southeast AZ the
past couple of days, and is forecast to spread west and north across
the remainder of southern and central AZ this week. And normally
this time of year once the moistures in place it should be like
clockwork, i.e., first afternoon mountain thunderstorms, then by
evening drifting toward the desert edge including developing on
convective outflows and/or outflow collisions. Not this week, there
is too much going on in the mid and upper atmosphere.

For example, the last vestiges of the northwest Mexico inverted trof
will move into the region Monday afternoon. More cyclonic flow over
southern CA will aid in a threat of thunderstorms over the Joshua
Tree National Park mountains, while difluent flow aloft in southwest
and south central AZ generates convective potential as well. But a
caveat, extensive mid/high clouds associated with the inverted trof
axis may cut down on afternoon heating and the convective potential
in the south central AZ Monday.

And for Tuesday and Tuesday night, while 300/250 mb flows become
southwesterly, a developing 500 mb easterly flow advects a weak mid
level disturbance from New Mexico into southeast and south Central
AZ late Tuesday afternoon and night. 500 mb disturbances usually
spark overnight convection under very moist conditions.

Therefore there is much uncertainty, and we can go on and on for
Wednesday through Saturday. Therefore, the best approach is to call
is quasi-unsettled, or a broad brush approach to shower/thunderstorm
potential since 1) the monsoon moisture will be in place, and 2)
models will no doubt have trouble forecasting any minor
perturbations in this developing convoluted flow aloft.


&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Low confidence forecast through Monday afternoon as wind
direction/shifts will be dictated by outflow boundaries traveling
from storms more removed from terminal sites. Southwest winds this
evening will shift to an easterly direction earlier than typical due
to outflow propagating from eastern AZ, but timing is very
uncertain. Cigs 12K-15K ft and occasional virga will be common
through Monday morning.

Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds will
arrive later Monday afternoon. Actual storms may not survive to
lower elevations, though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and
frequent lightning for arrivals/departures to the east may be
problematic.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft will increase through Monday with occasional
virga, and possibly a few showers reaching the ground at KIPL. While
a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred, periods of
variability will be common Monday morning (especially around
showers). A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods. Forecast confidence is only moderate.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...MO/Vasquez
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS65 KPSR 270230
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
730 PM MST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move somewhat north and east of Arizona this week
allowing warm temperatures to prevail, but also bring a couple of
weather disturbances through the state. An increase in monsoon
moisture will accompany these weather systems providing a threat of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms the remainder of
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined circulation center was quite evident in WV imagery
across far northern Sonora this evening with stronger ascent and
upper divergent signatures analyzed throughout SE AZ. 00Z KTWC
sampled rather modest Sfc-H7 8 g/kg mixing ratios, however deep
layer moisture flux has advected more favorable 10-11 g/kg profiles
northward per objective analysis. Given the general UVV and weakly
capped MLCapes around 500 J/kg, more robust convection has developed
along the I-19 corridor. Closer towards central AZ, reduced daytime
insolation and lower moisture values (closer to 7 g/kg mixing
ratios) have yielded negligible instability despite relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates. Thus, while virga/sprinkles/very light showers
may be possible around the Phoenix metro, convection moving north
may meet a fate of dissipation. Will continue to monitor trends
through the evening, and would be most concerned about stronger
outflows and dust production versus actual storms.

One area of somewhat more concern may be through SW AZ where some
more palpable instability has been analyzed, and
vorticity/divergence fields will translate during the overnight.
Several deterministic models and ensemble means suggest midlevel
moisture lifted towards a steeper lapse rate environment while low
level T/Td spreads narrow. There was enough evidence presented in
models and analysis to increase pops and mention showers through the
SW parts of the CWA later tonight. Otherwise, made some substantial
changes to hourly temperatures based on current trends which were
much cooler than previously advertised.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/240 PM MST SUN JUN 26 2016/
Monday through Saturday...
The forecast becomes very complicated this week with respect to
shower/thunderstorm potential, coverage, and intensity - mainly
across portions of southwest and south central AZ. In other words,
can we call it quasi-unsettled this week?

We know the monsoon moisture boundary arrived in southeast AZ the
past couple of days, and is forecast to spread west and north across
the remainder of southern and central AZ this week. And normally
this time of year once the moistures in place it should be like
clockwork, i.e., first afternoon mountain thunderstorms, then by
evening drifting toward the desert edge including developing on
convective outflows and/or outflow collisions. Not this week, there
is too much going on in the mid and upper atmosphere.

For example, the last vestiges of the northwest Mexico inverted trof
will move into the region Monday afternoon. More cyclonic flow over
southern CA will aid in a threat of thunderstorms over the Joshua
Tree National Park mountains, while difluent flow aloft in southwest
and south central AZ generates convective potential as well. But a
caveat, extensive mid/high clouds associated with the inverted trof
axis may cut down on afternoon heating and the convective potential
in the south central AZ Monday.

And for Tuesday and Tuesday night, while 300/250 mb flows become
southwesterly, a developing 500 mb easterly flow advects a weak mid
level disturbance from New Mexico into southeast and south Central
AZ late Tuesday afternoon and night. 500 mb disturbances usually
spark overnight convection under very moist conditions.

Therefore there is much uncertainty, and we can go on and on for
Wednesday through Saturday. Therefore, the best approach is to call
is quasi-unsettled, or a broad brush approach to shower/thunderstorm
potential since 1) the monsoon moisture will be in place, and 2)
models will no doubt have trouble forecasting any minor
perturbations in this developing convoluted flow aloft.


&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Low confidence forecast through Monday afternoon as wind
direction/shifts will be dictated by outflow boundaries traveling
from storms more removed from terminal sites. Southwest winds this
evening will shift to an easterly direction earlier than typical due
to outflow propagating from eastern AZ, but timing is very
uncertain. Cigs 12K-15K ft and occasional virga will be common
through Monday morning.

Much better chances for stronger east/northeast outflow winds will
arrive later Monday afternoon. Actual storms may not survive to
lower elevations, though mountain obscuration, blowing dust, and
frequent lightning for arrivals/departures to the east may be
problematic.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Cigs in a 10K-15K ft will increase through Monday with occasional
virga, and possibly a few showers reaching the ground at KIPL. While
a south to southeast sfc wind will be preferred, periods of
variability will be common Monday morning (especially around
showers). A few stronger gusts may also be possible for brief
periods. Forecast confidence is only moderate.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Temperatures will continue to "cool" with highs on Wednesday around
105-112F dropping into the 100-110F range by Sunday. As monsoon
moisture levels continue to increase over the region, isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening over much of the
desert southwest, with the highest chances over the higher terrain
of central and eastern Arizona. Accompanying any storm that develops
will be wetting rains, gusty erratic winds, and lightning. This
increase in moisture will support a rise in minimum humidities, with
values ranging in the 15-25 percent range each day with good
overnight recoveries. Outside of gusty storm winds, speeds will
range between 5 to 15 mph with a few afternoon upslope gusts up to
20 mph.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...MO/Vasquez
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




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