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000
FXUS65 KPSR 301226 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO OUR
REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301217 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/1215Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1200Z WAS NEAR 1100 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

OVERALL VFR BKN LEVELS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR LOW MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 02Z
THIS EVE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MANY COASTAL
SITES...THEN SPREAD INTO VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDS FOR FEW VALLEY TAF SITES.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER
10Z-11Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS65 KPSR 301210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
RIDGE GIVING SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD DECKS AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
MAINLY THIN BROKEN CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AOA 25K FEET. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...FAVORING WEAK DIURNAL
TENDENCIES OVER THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY MOST OF
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB









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000
FXUS66 KMTR 301139
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
439 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES COOLED NICELY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEW POINT VALUES MOSTLY IN
THE 40S. CURRENTLY MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER REMAINS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NW
CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND 50N/140W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ADVANCE TO OUR CWA BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP 2-4C. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH THINGS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOME CASES, TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SF BAY
AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TO SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
EVENTS, THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO WASH OUT EVEN AS IT
EXITS SE MONTEREY COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EVEN IN
THE USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE CWA. AFTER A VERY BRIEF BREAK BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE THAN A 30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY ALTHOUGH ALL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING SOME LIGHTING
OR EVEN GETTING SMALL HAIL. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS PORTIONS
OF SAN BENITO COUNTY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE RAIN WILL BE
OVER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1/3"-2/3" LIKELY FOR ALMOST ALL URBAN
LOCATIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS LOCALLY 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE --
EVEN OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS AS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING
HIGHER QPF OVER THAT COUNTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK UP TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30-HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE THE NEXT 30 HOURS. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER
15Z FRIDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PDT THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM EARLY
FRIDAY. GENTLE SEAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUILDING SEAS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP/LARRY
MARINE: DRP/LARRY

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 301108
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
408 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER TODAY...THEN A MAJOR WINTER-LIKE STORM PUSH INTO THE
WEST COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. THE STORM WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...PRECIPITATION LIKELY WITH THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...

HIGH PRES RIDGE IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS IS STEAMING OUT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ABOUT 700 MILES
WSW OF SAN DIEGO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT NOT MUCH OF ANY OTHER IMPACTS AS IT WILL
REMAIN MILD FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND WITH ONLY WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENTS LATER TODAY THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ONLY A
MINOR NOTE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND BRING A COOLER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE COASTAL VALLEYS. A MAJOR EAST PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FIRST NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIG DOWN THE COAST TOWARDS
SAN DIEGO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK A RATHER
ROBUST COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK
MAYBE 6 HOURS SO THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TRICK OR
TREATERS HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF REMAINING DRY IF THEY CAN GET
BACK HOME NOT LONG AFTER DARK.

AS MENTIONED THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SAN DIEGO PROPER WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY.

THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH
UP TO SIX INCHES IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR
THESE AREAS.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH DESERTS WITH LITTLE
OR NO PRECIP FOR THE LOWER DESERTS.

SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN ENSUE FOR EARLY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. GREAT BASIN SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
300930Z...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE RANDOMLY
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS
OCCUR...BASES WILL BE AROUND 600 FEET MSL WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM.
MEANWHILE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET MSL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS BASED AT AROUND
1500 FEET MSL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS FROM
02-06Z THIS EVENING AND HEAD INTO LOWER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








000
FXUS66 KLOX 301059 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 301059 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND
MOVING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION LATER IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS PICTURES FROM SPACE LOOKING VERY MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH HIGH WARM SECTOR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE ETREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. AS OF 4AM RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THESE CLOUDS WHILE REMAINING
WELL OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING THE CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD APPROACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN REACHING THE NORTH COAST
SOMEWHERE AROUND 6 OR 7PM...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY
LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.
THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES.
RPA/JT

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE UPSLOPE TERRAIN-DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KCEC. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY DROP VSBYS TO 3SM OR LESS AT KACV AND KCEC AFTER MIDNIGHT
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KACV AND KCEC.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KUKI LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TO MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD HIT 15-20 KT WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROFILES
ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-LIVED STORMS. FRI
NIGHT MAY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
STRONG...THE CONVECTION MAY GENERATE LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20-30KT.
NORTH FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SAT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HITTING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BE UP
TO 10 FT OR MORE ON SAT AND ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY IN ALL MARINE ZONES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION
OF A LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE GROUP.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS PICTURES FROM SPACE LOOKING VERY MUCH
LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH HIGH WARM SECTOR CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE ETREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. AS OF 4AM RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN UNDER THESE CLOUDS WHILE REMAINING
WELL OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT THAT IS PROVIDING THE CLOUDS WILL
VERY GRADUALLY WORK EASTWARD APPROACHING THE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN REACHING THE NORTH COAST
SOMEWHERE AROUND 6 OR 7PM...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY
LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.
THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES.
RPA/JT

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE UPSLOPE TERRAIN-DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR KCEC. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY DROP VSBYS TO 3SM OR LESS AT KACV AND KCEC AFTER MIDNIGHT
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KACV AND KCEC.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KUKI LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS TO MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD HIT 15-20 KT WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES INLAND AND WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL APPROACH ON FRI AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROFILES
ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LONG-LIVED STORMS. FRI
NIGHT MAY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY
STRONG...THE CONVECTION MAY GENERATE LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20-30KT.
NORTH FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON SAT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS HITTING 20-25 KT IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. HOWEVER SEAS WILL ALREADY BE UP
TO 10 FT OR MORE ON SAT AND ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY IN ALL MARINE ZONES. THE SEAS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION
OF A LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE GROUP.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 301042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 301040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N/127W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FOR OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND PROVIDE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD AND MOIST UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR 52N/144W. THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S PRECEDING RUNS IS
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CA
COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND DIG A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF IT/S TIMING AND BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING
THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN SEVERAL MONTHS WITH QPF
PROGS INDICATING MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PICK UP
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM KINGS CANYON NORTHWARD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATRUDAY AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOL AND DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO CA ON MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOG COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 301040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N/127W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FOR OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND PROVIDE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD AND MOIST UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR 52N/144W. THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S PRECEDING RUNS IS
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CA
COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND DIG A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF IT/S TIMING AND BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING
THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN SEVERAL MONTHS WITH QPF
PROGS INDICATING MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PICK UP
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM KINGS CANYON NORTHWARD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATRUDAY AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOL AND DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO CA ON MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOG COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KLOX 301039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 301039
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. SKIES WILL TURN CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MORNING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
A LITTLE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS SPUN UP A GRIP OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY DIAPHANOUS SO THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO CALL IT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY RATHER THAN JUST
CLOUDY. HGTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BE TRENDING MORE AND MORE ONSHORE AS WELL. THESE TWO THINGS AND
THE EXTRA CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW AS MUCH AS A WARM UP AS IT LOOKED
LIKE YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS.

A LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS TROF SHOULD FINALLY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS. IT WILL IN FACT PRODUCE
ENOUGH LOW CLOUDS TO COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS AND EVEN THE COASTAL
SLOPES. TOWARDS DAWN THE LOWER ATMOS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH THAT THE
LIFT WITH THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE. NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE THE OROGRAPHICS WILL GIVE THE LIFT JUST A LITTLE MORE OOMPH
THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.

SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST RAIN FALL OF THE RAIN SEASON IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SFC FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
BIG EAST PAC TROF WILL MOVE CLOSE THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO WESTERN SLO COUNTY BUT REALLY
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS LIKE
HALLOWEEN IS GOING TO BE WASH OUT FOR TRICK OR TREATERS IN SLO AND
WESTERN SBA COUNTIES.

ALL THE REAL ACTION HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE ONE TWO PUNCH OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE POST FRONTAL TROF MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A CHC OF RAIN. THERE IS A VERY NICE VORT MAX
ALONG WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE TWO
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TO SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE COVERED IN SHOWERS AND SOME
MAY BE HEAVY.

THE VORT MAX EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON
THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE IS ALWAYS A LITTLE POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AS
WELL AS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE VTA AND LA MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CREATED BY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. ONE LAST SHOT OF VORTICITY
WILL ALSO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE
SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OVERNIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT OVER 7000 FEET BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL IS REALLY NOT AN ISSUE BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT ELEVATIONS OVER 6000 FEET ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE EASTERN SAN GABRIELS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEP IN RAMPING UP WITH EACH MDL RUN. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE .75 INCHES TO AROUND AN INCH. THE
REST OF THE NON-DESERT AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIELS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

MAX TEMPS WILL FALL EACH DAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS 3 TO 6
DEGREE BLO NORMAL. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BLO
NORMAL WITH NO READINGS IN THE 70S ANYWHERE.

THERE WILL BE SOME WINDS SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND MTNS AND THE
ANTELOPE VLY MAY NEED A LOW END WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
AND THEN ITS GONE. ALL MDLS FORECAST THAT A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AND THEN BUILDING EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL LEFT OVER CLOUDS SUNDAY TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BLO
NORMAL BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0730Z WAS NEAR 1200 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

30/340 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS. MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...THEN
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 301036
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather for Today under upper level high pressure. A cold
front will impact interior northern California beginning tonight
then moving through norcal on Friday. The front will bring rain
and mountain snow along with cooler temperatures, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Showers are expected behind the front on
Saturday. Snow levels will lower to around 4500 ft Saturday
morning. Showers ending early Sunday with drier and milder weather
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Forecast area under mainly fair skies this morning under high
pressure ridge currently over the western U.S. A Pacific frontal
system will be pushing this ridge eastward over the next few days
bringing a significant change in the weather pattern. High
cloudiness being pulled northward into the area today ahead of an
offshore cold front will bring the first signs of weather pattern
change. Daytime highs will cool slightly from Wednesday but still
remain a little above normal for this time of year. The Pacific
cold front is forecast to move into northern California on Friday
bringing rain and mountain snow and enough instability for a
slight threat of thunderstorms especially over the western half of
the CWA. Model timing of this frontal system is becoming more
consistent amongst the models with current timing putting the
frontal boundary over the central valley around 00z Friday. Not
real good timing for trick or treaters who will be under the rainy
effects of the back edge of the front early Friday evening. By 12z
Saturday morning the main frontal band should be over the Sierra.
Colder air filtering in behind this front will bring a rapid drop
in snow levels. By 12z Saturday...snow levels over the CWA should
range from 4000 to 5000 feet. Showers are likely on Saturday under
upper level cyclonic flow. Saturday afternoon highs under the
cooler airmass are forecast to come in around 10 degrees below
normal. Mid range models move the upper trough axis into the Great
Basin by 12z Sunday morning. Rebuilding high pressure will bring
an end to any precipitation threat by Sunday afternoon along with
the beginning of a warming trend.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will
slowly be climbing Monday through Thursday reaching to around
normal. Extended models move a weak system over the north end of
the ridge and into the Pacific Northwest around Tuesday but keep
any precipitation north of the forecast area. Therefore...extended
period remains dry for now. Extended models hinting at a return to
a wetter pattern towards the end of next week but have been rather
inconsistent both run to run and model to model so confidence in
this change not especially high at this time.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue the next 24 hours. A frontal
system will begin to approach the area tonight, with light showers
spreading across the Coastal Range after midnight tonight. Light
winds across the Valley this morning will become southerly up to
10 kt. Along the mountains, SW wind gusts up to 30 kt will be
possible this afternoon.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon
above 5000 feet in the west slope northern Sierra Nevada...western
Plumas county/Lassen park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 301036
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather for Today under upper level high pressure. A cold
front will impact interior northern California beginning tonight
then moving through norcal on Friday. The front will bring rain
and mountain snow along with cooler temperatures, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Showers are expected behind the front on
Saturday. Snow levels will lower to around 4500 ft Saturday
morning. Showers ending early Sunday with drier and milder weather
early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Forecast area under mainly fair skies this morning under high
pressure ridge currently over the western U.S. A Pacific frontal
system will be pushing this ridge eastward over the next few days
bringing a significant change in the weather pattern. High
cloudiness being pulled northward into the area today ahead of an
offshore cold front will bring the first signs of weather pattern
change. Daytime highs will cool slightly from Wednesday but still
remain a little above normal for this time of year. The Pacific
cold front is forecast to move into northern California on Friday
bringing rain and mountain snow and enough instability for a
slight threat of thunderstorms especially over the western half of
the CWA. Model timing of this frontal system is becoming more
consistent amongst the models with current timing putting the
frontal boundary over the central valley around 00z Friday. Not
real good timing for trick or treaters who will be under the rainy
effects of the back edge of the front early Friday evening. By 12z
Saturday morning the main frontal band should be over the Sierra.
Colder air filtering in behind this front will bring a rapid drop
in snow levels. By 12z Saturday...snow levels over the CWA should
range from 4000 to 5000 feet. Showers are likely on Saturday under
upper level cyclonic flow. Saturday afternoon highs under the
cooler airmass are forecast to come in around 10 degrees below
normal. Mid range models move the upper trough axis into the Great
Basin by 12z Sunday morning. Rebuilding high pressure will bring
an end to any precipitation threat by Sunday afternoon along with
the beginning of a warming trend.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

High pressure ridging along the west coast will be the dominant
weather feature through the extended period. Daytime highs will
slowly be climbing Monday through Thursday reaching to around
normal. Extended models move a weak system over the north end of
the ridge and into the Pacific Northwest around Tuesday but keep
any precipitation north of the forecast area. Therefore...extended
period remains dry for now. Extended models hinting at a return to
a wetter pattern towards the end of next week but have been rather
inconsistent both run to run and model to model so confidence in
this change not especially high at this time.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue the next 24 hours. A frontal
system will begin to approach the area tonight, with light showers
spreading across the Coastal Range after midnight tonight. Light
winds across the Valley this morning will become southerly up to
10 kt. Along the mountains, SW wind gusts up to 30 kt will be
possible this afternoon.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon
above 5000 feet in the west slope northern Sierra Nevada...western
Plumas county/Lassen park.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 301016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL
OF COLDER AIR/LOWER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
GFS/EC/GEM MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND GENERAL FEATURES WITH THIS WEEKEND`S STORM SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM
WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH ITS 06Z RUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFF TO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC SLOWLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LATE TONIGHT, WINDS INCREASE
MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND EXITING RIDGE.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS THE INCOMING LOW`S COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SPECIAL BUT THEY WILL BE GUSTY AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. REGARDING THE FRONT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER PARALLEL
TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AWAITS
A FORWARD PUSH FROM UPPER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH
THE FRONT SLOWING SOMEWHAT, I HAVE PUSHED BACK THE LOWERING OF
SNOW LEVELS AND, IN SOME AREAS, THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION.

STILL, THE FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NEVADA AS A JET MAX NOSES INTO THE STATE AND KEEPS THE
FRONT INTACT. GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, I DID RAISE
PRECIPITATION NEAR MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE SIERRA
THERE AIDS OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOR MOST OTHER
AREAS, FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SO WE
ARE ON TRACK WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERY UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SATURDAY`S PRECIPITATION, SNOW OR
ICE PELLETS COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN DOWN TO ALL BUT THE LOWEST
VALLEYS (UNDER 4000 FEET). HOWEVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PLENTY WARM TO PROHIBIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SIERRA. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS ALL
AGREE ON THE TRANSITION TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR MIDWEEK.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH THE EC
SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. IT DROPS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE OR INSIDE SLIDER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT WAVE AND THUS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. THE EC ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SO THIS
WAVE SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED. THAT SAID, ONLY LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY
AND KEPT FORECAST DRY. THE EC DOES SHOW PRECIP AND TEMPS A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN I HAVE. AT THIS POINT, THE EC IS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE SO WILL JUST TREND THAT WAY SINCE SLIDERS DO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
COME FURTHER WEST THAN ADVERTISED.

ONCE THAT WEAK WAVE GOES THROUGH, THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST AND THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A MODERATE AMPLITUDE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY FOR A
CONSISTENT WARMING TREND. THE TREND WILL BE FASTER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHILE THE LOWER VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV ARE SLOWER TO
WARM DUE TO MODERATE INVERSIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. STILL,
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASING TODAY WITH PEAK SFC GUSTS 20-25
KTS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

STORM STILL EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS ABOVE 6000
FEET. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA FOR
WESTERN NV VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. MJD/WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 301012
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
312 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER A WARM DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES COOLED NICELY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DEW POINT VALUES MOSTLY IN
THE 40S. CURRENTLY MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING EXPECTED.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER REMAINS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NW
CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND 50N/140W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ADVANCE TO OUR CWA BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP 2-4C. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH THINGS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOME CASES, TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL START ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY IN COORDINATION WITH THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND BRING
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE SF BAY
AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...TO SAN JOSE AND MONTEREY BAY
AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
EVENTS, THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO WASH OUT EVEN AS IT
EXITS SE MONTEREY COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EVEN IN
THE USUAL DRY SPOTS IN THE CWA. AFTER A VERY BRIEF BREAK BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE THAN A 30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY ALTHOUGH ALL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING SOME LIGHTING
OR EVEN GETTING SMALL HAIL. RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY PLUS PORTIONS
OF SAN BENITO COUNTY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE RAIN WILL BE
OVER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1/3"-2/3" LIKELY FOR ALMOST ALL URBAN
LOCATIONS. FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS LOCALLY 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE --
EVEN OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. SANTA CRUZ COUNTY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS AS THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING
HIGHER QPF OVER THAT COUNTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK TO OUR AREA GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK UP TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM EARLY
FRIDAY. GENTLE SEAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. BUILDING SEAS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: PETERSON/LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 300603
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0545Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0510Z WAS NEAR 900 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 1700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAF SITES WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIFR CONDITIONS 10Z-17Z. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VLY AND DESERT TAFS.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 300543
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES...A
WARMING AIRMASS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW COMBINED TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A
FEW LOWER 90S IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ONE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS SET...AT SALINAS WITH A HIGH OF 88.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-150W. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THIS TROUGH STEADILY TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...DRIVING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE AREA ON
HALLOWEEN DAY AND FOLLOWING THAT FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...RAIN MAY
BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
FORECASTING A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ACROSS THE SF BAY
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT POST-
FRONTAL BREAK FROM PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THE FRONT SLOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON THE 00Z NAM...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME
OF THE WETTER SPOTS. IF THE FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM...THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SO RAIN TOTALS WON`T
VARY AS MUCH AS THEY TYPICALLY DO BETWEEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 300430
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0415Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIIBLITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSTO 300427
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
927 PM PDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will impact northern
interior California Thursday night into Saturday with rain and
mountain snow along, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Snow levels will lower to around 4500 ft Saturday
morning. Drier and milder weather early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The weak ridge over the area will push east on Thursday as the
next system approaches. The models have slowed the pace of the
system a little and both are still not quite in sink with one
another. The GFS is still a little bit faster that the NAM. Some
light precipitation may start over the northern areas and coastal
range late Thursday night out ahead of the main front as moisture
spreads over the region. The main band will come in on Friday
during the morning for the coastal range and parts of the western
Sacramento valley and then spread east for the afternoon. There is
a chance the far southeastern portions of the CWA may stay dry
during the day but that mean it is looking more likely that it
will be wet for the trick or treaters. The coastal range and the
western portions of the Sacramento valley will likely see showers
with possible thunderstorms developing behind the front for the
trick or treaters by late in the afternoon...while the San Joaquin
valley is looking wet with the front over on top of that area
through early evening.

Unstable air behind the front will give the interior a chance of
thunderstorms pretty much everywhere Friday night with most of the
activity expected Friday evening. The low will still be over the region
on Saturday with a chance of showers continuing and isolated
thunderstorms. Its not until Saturday evening when the low moves
far enough to the east that more stable air move over the area to
dry things out.

The slower pace will delay the lowering of snow levels slightly.
Snow levels look like they will stay high into early Friday
evening before lowering. Still about a foot of snow over the
higher elevations will be possible with lessor amounts down to
around 5000 feet through Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging forecast to return into
early next week leading to a return of dry northwesterly flow for
much of interior NorCal and a retreat of precipitation chances to
around the Oregon border.

Another frontal system is perched offshore west of 130W by
Thursday. This is out past our forecast time frame, but be prepared
for another frontal system Thursday night into Friday.

JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds
generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter storm watch from friday morning through saturday
afternoon above 5000 feet in the west slope northern sierra
nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSGX 300411
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...THEN COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS THROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A BEAUTIFUL COMMA CLOUD
PUNCTUATING THE SKIES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BRING A LARGE SWATH AND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY.

TODAY WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST...THE 80S IN THE VALLEY AND A FEW LOW 90S IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 94 AT THERMAL. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY...NOT AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. GREATER COOLING FRIDAY WITH A COLD EARLY-SEASON LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STARTING TO SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE BETWEEN
5-6KFT AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS HALLOWEEN
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
RECORDED AT LINDBERGH FIELD ON OCTOBER 31ST WAS BACK IN 1987 WHEN
0.52" INCHES FELL. LINDBERGH FIELD WILL NOT GET THAT MUCH RAIN...THE
STORM IS TRACKING A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. BUT IT
COULD BE MEASURABLE. A POTENT VORT MAX AND STRONG JET ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT THE INCREASING
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY IN THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY ZONES FROM AS LITTLE AS FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH FARTHER NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE MOST
PRECIP AS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE OPTIMIZED BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.25"-0.50"...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75" POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STORM TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM
GROUND...BUT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50
KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...LOWER HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
300330Z...COAST AND VALLEYS...SKC CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH 30/0800Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL. AFT
30/0800Z PATCHY BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 600-800 FT MSL
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INLAND UP TO 5 MILES FROM THE COAST. VIS WILL
LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE THE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL MESAS. EXPECTING TEMPO CIGS AT KSNA...KOKB...AND KSAN
BETWEEN 30/0800Z AND 30/1200Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THIS DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 30/1200-1500Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ON THURSDAY EVENING AND ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.

DESERTS/MTS...SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABV 20000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE SKC CONDS
AND LIGHT BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KSGX 300411
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
910 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...THEN COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE WEST COAST. THIS THROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A BEAUTIFUL COMMA CLOUD
PUNCTUATING THE SKIES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BRING A LARGE SWATH AND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY.

TODAY WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST...THE 80S IN THE VALLEY AND A FEW LOW 90S IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE. THE NATIONS HIGH WAS 94 AT THERMAL. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY...NOT AS WARM AS TODAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. GREATER COOLING FRIDAY WITH A COLD EARLY-SEASON LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STARTING TO SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE BETWEEN
5-6KFT AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS HALLOWEEN
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE RAIN WAS
RECORDED AT LINDBERGH FIELD ON OCTOBER 31ST WAS BACK IN 1987 WHEN
0.52" INCHES FELL. LINDBERGH FIELD WILL NOT GET THAT MUCH RAIN...THE
STORM IS TRACKING A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. BUT IT
COULD BE MEASURABLE. A POTENT VORT MAX AND STRONG JET ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT THE INCREASING
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY IN THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY ZONES FROM AS LITTLE AS FEW HUNDREDTHS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TO
AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH FARTHER NORTH. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE MOST
PRECIP AS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE OPTIMIZED BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.25"-0.50"...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75" POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STORM TRACK.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM
GROUND...BUT A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50
KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW...A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...LOWER HUMIDITY...AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
300330Z...COAST AND VALLEYS...SKC CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH 30/0800Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL. AFT
30/0800Z PATCHY BKN LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 600-800 FT MSL
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INLAND UP TO 5 MILES FROM THE COAST. VIS WILL
LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-5 SM WHERE THE CLOUDS NEAR TERRAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL MESAS. EXPECTING TEMPO CIGS AT KSNA...KOKB...AND KSAN
BETWEEN 30/0800Z AND 30/1200Z. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THIS DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 30/1200-1500Z. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ON THURSDAY EVENING AND ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.

DESERTS/MTS...SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABV 20000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE SKC CONDS
AND LIGHT BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT







000
FXUS66 KMTR 300407
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
907 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES...A
WARMING AIRMASS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW COMBINED TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A
FEW LOWER 90S IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. ONE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS SET...AT SALINAS WITH A HIGH OF 88.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-150W. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THIS TROUGH STEADILY TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...DRIVING A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE AREA ON
HALLOWEEN DAY AND FOLLOWING THAT FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...RAIN MAY
BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
FORECASTING A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIP ACTION ACROSS THE SF BAY
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THAT POST-
FRONTAL BREAK FROM PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THE FRONT SLOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON THE 00Z NAM...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SOME
OF THE WETTER SPOTS. IF THE FRONT SLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM...THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. OROGRAPHICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND SO RAIN TOTALS WON`T
VARY AS MUCH AS THEY TYPICALLY DO BETWEEN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND INLAND VALLEYS.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 300347
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
847 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE ESCAPES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHOWS SIGNS OF TURNING ONSHORE. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
INITIALIZED THE FLOW PATTERN TOO STRONGLY ONSHORE THIS
EVENING...WHILE 950 MB TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED A TAD TOO WARM.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
THINNING...THE SCALES SHOULD TIP IN FAVOR OF A COOLING TREND AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A COOLER AIR MASS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES. WITH LOCAL
TEMPERATURES STUDIES SUGGESTING THE AIR MASS A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL BE ADDED FOR
THURSDAY IN AN UPDATE LATER.

THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT WILL LIKELY PLAY TRICKS ON THE STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT. A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN EXISTS AS THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD FORMATION. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE VISIBLE ON FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INLAND TO THE
COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG
TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE DEVELOPING BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0015Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT MOST
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...THEN THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z
AND 11Z. THE BEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH
VISIIBLITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST
SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 300256
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
755 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WERE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS
START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY...CLEARING FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.

A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY...AND DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...158 PM MST...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS66 KLOX 300016
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
515 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMING IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AN OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN
WARMING AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 2PM. SOME AREAS SUCH
AS THE CENTRAL COAST WERE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE
TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OFFSHORE FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOCAL...ALONG WITH OUR END OF THE WEEK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE SW WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD STAY CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED
FEET DEEP.

ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TOMORROW. COOLING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM NW. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0015Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0000Z WAS NEAR 500 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH
PERSISTS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PLAY TRICKS ON STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT MOST
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...THEN THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z
AND 11Z. THE BEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 292340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARM TEMPS OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING THIS
MORNING ALL TRANSLATED INTO A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
SPOTS HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL JUMPS IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
(MONTEREY HAS HAD A NEARLY 20 DEGREE INCREASE). BY THE END OF THE DAY,
HIGHS SHOULD END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CENTERED ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THURSDAY WILL START OUT
FAIRLY QUIET WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AND PICKING UP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. RAIN WILL
START TO IMPACT THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

UNLIKE SOME OF THE PAST EVENTS THIS YEAR, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT WASH OUT SO RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE AREA. TIMING IS STILL BEING FINE TUNED, BUT THE MAIN
BAND SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR SF LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AND TO MONTEREY BAY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS TO CALIFORNIA. COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
FILTER IN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
EVEN SOME STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RUNS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING FATHER TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AWAY. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK DOES VERIFY, SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE TO TRIGGER CELLS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL END SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1/3-2/3" FOR MANY URBAN SPOTS WITH LOCALLY 1-2"
POSSIBLE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS). EVEN INTERIOR SPOTS WHICH HAVE PICKED UP VERY LITTLE
(IN SOME CASES NONE) RAINFALL THE PAST MONTH SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
1/4".

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD BACK TO THE COAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS PLUS A WARMING TREND. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR NORTH BAY VALLEY
SPOTS DUE TO DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE OUR
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

CLIMATE TIDBIT...SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST
12% OF HALLOWEEN DAYS (JUST 3% FOR GETTING AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSTO 292302
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
402 PM PDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will impact northern
interior California late Thursday into Saturday with rain and mountain
snow along, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Snow levels will lower to around 4500 ft Saturday morning. Drier and
milder weather early next week.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
A warm afternoon with ample sunshine as current temperatures are
running about 5 to 12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Tomorrow
will be another warm and mild day, but our weather pattern will
start changing late Thursday night.

A cold front will move into the coastal range late Thursday and
track eastward, impacting NorCal into Saturday. Main impacts will
likely occur on Friday due to morning/evening commutes and the
Halloween holiday. This morning`s CNRFC forecast for liquid
equivalent of precipitation was higher than previously forecast so
we have updated rain and snow totals in the afternoon package.
Valley rain totals are now closer to 0.30-0.50" while the
foothills range between 0.50-0.75" and the higher elevations peak
between 1-1.5". Snow levels will start off around 7000 ft Friday
morning then lower to around 6000 ft by Friday evening. By
Saturday morning, snow levels will continue to lower down to about
4500 ft. For snow accumulations, the greater impacts will occur above
5000 ft from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning with 4-8" of
snow accumulation at pass levels with locally higher amounts
closer to the crest. We have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the
Sierra above 5000 ft due to hazardous winter driving conditions
from snow accumulation. With the current models: timing of the main
precipitation still shows that the Valley and including Shasta
County will have peak precipitation on Friday afternoon (before 5
pm). Precipitation will continue into the evening, but be lighter.
The Sierra precipitation will peak Friday night. But keep in mind
that if the front stalls or speeds up on Friday, then these
general timing guidelines will change.

In addition to the rain and snow impacts, there is also some
instability associated with the cold frontal passage. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms during the day Friday into Friday
night. Although rain can dampen trick-or-treating activities,
keep an eye and ear out for thunder and lightning as this would
make outside activities more dangerous. Please seek shelter if
thunderstorms develop. JBB

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging forecast to return into
early next week leading to a return of dry northwesterly flow for
much of interior NorCal and a retreat of precipitation chances to
around the Oregon border.

Another frontal system is perched offshore west of 130W by
Thursday. This is out past our forecast time frame, but be prepared
for another frontal system Thursday night into Friday.

JClapp


&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds
generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon
above 5000 feet in the west slope Northern Sierra Nevada...western
Plumas county/Lassen Park.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KHNX 292226
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
326 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE YOSEMITE AREA.
OTHERWISE A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DRY AND CLEAR TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY FROM AN APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SCAL COAST.
HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT AS A RIDGE OVER CA
AMPLIFIES NE AND SHIFTS MORE INLAND. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL CA ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED STARTING THURSDAY DUE TO A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THE STORM WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND A PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE PAC NW. MODELS PROG
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER
LOW DIGS SE TOWARDS CA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT. MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE
MEAN IN STRENGHT AND TIMING. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE EC MODEL BRINGS
AIR A BIT COLDER AND MORE RAIN THAN GFS TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPIS AND
SOUTH VALLEY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK TO SPOIL HALLOWEEN AS MODELS FORECAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE RAIN...STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY S-SW WINDS WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MERCED AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE VALLEY. MODEL SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASE TO 20-25MM AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN
FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND
LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UPDATED QPF FORECAST YIELDS HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
SATURDAY A UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE TROUGH THE TROUGH. AXIS OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG WEST FLOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COOL DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. A WARM AND DRY TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
COMBINES WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 292221
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
321 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO PRIMARILY DEL NORTE
COUNTY OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH EVER SO SLOWLY
TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES THIS EVENING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH. THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT IS AROUND 140W AND MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH WEAKNESSES
ON THE WEST SIDE TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
ITS EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGH.

THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DIVERGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
THE GFS NOW INDICATING A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW A FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH...THUS LEAVING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
DRY. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN GENERAL HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING IS CURRENTLY
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA OREGON BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS AT
TIMES AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KCEC AND KACV TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI
THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THESE SYSTEMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS
ALL OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 292220
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMING IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AN OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN
WARMING AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 2PM. SOME AREAS SUCH
AS THE CENTRAL COAST WERE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE
TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OFFSHORE FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOCAL...ALONG WITH OUR END OF THE WEEK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE SW WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOP SHOULD STAY CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED
FEET DEEP.

ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TOMORROW. COOLING WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM NW. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.

WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
FRONT...THEN PRECIPICATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AND CONVECTIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS NOW BRING THE UPPER LOW AND INSTABILITY
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING ON
THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.25 - 0.50"...WITH SOME 1.00"
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES. RAINFALL
RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 0.25-0.50" PER HOUR.

RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY...WITH THE SBA SOUTH COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME RAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH EASTERN LA
COUNTY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10 - 0.25"...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50" POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIELS. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP TO BE AS CONVECTIVE AS UP NORTH...SO RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.25".

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THIS LEVEL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADIVSORY LEVEL SW WINDS
FOR THE LA MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NW AND N ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBLITY OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN NORTHERN VENTURA AND LA COUNTY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

WARMING AND DRYING WILL BE THE STORY IN THE LONG TERM AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 600 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM KSBA NORTHWARD ARE ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE FORECASTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE CLOUD COVER. COASTAL TAF SITES SOUTH
OF KSBA ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 292200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARM TEMPS OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING THIS
MORNING ALL TRANSLATED INTO A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
SPOTS HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL JUMPS IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TUESDAY
(MONTEREY HAS HAD A NEARLY 20 DEGREE INCREASE). BY THE END OF THE DAY,
HIGHS SHOULD END UP MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CENTERED ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. THURSDAY WILL START OUT
FAIRLY QUIET WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AND PICKING UP AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. RAIN WILL
START TO IMPACT THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

UNLIKE SOME OF THE PAST EVENTS THIS YEAR, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT WASH OUT SO RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE AREA. TIMING IS STILL BEING FINE TUNED, BUT THE MAIN
BAND SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR SF LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AND TO MONTEREY BAY MID-AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS TO CALIFORNIA. COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
FILTER IN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
EVEN SOME STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RUNS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING FATHER TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AWAY. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF THE NORTHERLY TRACK DOES VERIFY, SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE TO TRIGGER CELLS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL END SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1/3-2/3" FOR MANY URBAN SPOTS WITH LOCALLY 1-2"
POSSIBLE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS). EVEN INTERIOR SPOTS WHICH HAVE PICKED UP VERY LITTLE
(IN SOME CASES NONE) RAINFALL THE PAST MONTH SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
1/4".

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD BACK TO THE COAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK
LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS PLUS A WARMING TREND. WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE NORTH BAY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR NORTH BAY VALLEY
SPOTS DUE TO DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE OUR
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR SHELTERED NORTH BAY VALLEYS.

CLIMATE TIDBIT...SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST
12% OF HALLOWEEN DAYS (JUST 3% FOR GETTING AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. A BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KREV 292151
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
251 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY LEADING TO WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS
FOR FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE SIERRA. THIS STORM WILL NOT BE A BLOCKBUSTER EVENT BY SIERRA
STANDARDS, BUT WILL PRODUCE THE FIRST DECENT SNOWFALL OF THE
2014-2015 WINTER SEASON. MAIN IMPACTS ARE POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
OVER THE SIERRA PASSES DUE TO SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY, AND THE
LIKELY WINTER CLOSURE OF THE HIGH ELEVATION PASSES ON CALIFORNIA
HIGHWAYS 4, 108, AND 120.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START, BUT RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN SIERRA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE STRONG FORCING AS MODELS
SHOW THE JET, COLD FRONT AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY LINING UP OVER
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW FROM DONNER PASS SOUTH TO MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST WITH VALUES AT 7000-8500 FEET ON FRIDAY
LOWERING TO 4500-5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000-5500 FEET.

TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW RATIOS STARTING FROM 8-1 AND INCREASING TO NEAR
12-1 AT THE END OF THE EVENT WILL YIELD 8-14 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR FROM CARSON PASS
TO MAMMOTH DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING. AROUND TAHOE AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 IN MONO COUNTY, ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO STICK TO ROADS FRIDAY EVENING
DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER.

A FINAL SIDE NOTE FOR THE CARSON RANGE IS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THE TAHOE WATER TEMPERATURE IS RUNNING
NEAR 56 DEGREES, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BOOST TOTALS IN THE CARSON RANGE AND
POSSIBLY SNOW ON THE SLOPES WEST OF CARSON CITY AND MINDEN.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA...MAIN IMPACT FRIDAY IS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH, WITH BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF THE DRY LAKE BEDS AND CROSS
WINDS TO HIGHWAY 395. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA AND COMBINES WITH THE COLD POOL INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING LIQUID AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCH ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH HIGH END TOTALS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. AS SNOW LEVELS DROP FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. SNOW STICKING TO ROADS IS
UNLIKELY BELOW 6000 FEET DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER. TRAVEL
IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD BE LIMITED TO ROADS HEADING TO TAHOE
(50, 207 AND MT ROSE HIGHWAY) AND PERHAPS HIGHWAY 341 IN THE
VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONGOING WINTER EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS MAIN TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. WHILE MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN AND SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GRAUPEL ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV WHERE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000 FEET FOR MOST OF SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH BY LATE MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OR WITHIN PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. ALL AREAS WILL
BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH BRISK
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH ADDING TO THE COLD CONDITIONS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SATURDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BANDS OF SNOW LINGERING NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NV AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS NEAR THE SIERRA, ESPECIALLY
IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OR IF SNOW IS STILL ON THE GROUND.

DRY NORTH FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RATHER
FLAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND GRADUAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 60S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE
REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THIS POTENTIAL SO WE DID NOT ADD ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
TO INCREASE THURSDAY WITH PEAK SFC GUSTS 20-25 KTS NEAR AND JUST
EAST OF THE SIERRA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

STORM STILL EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFT CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS ABOVE
6000 FEET. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN -RA FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING NVZ002.

CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KPSR 292058 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
158 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW
8 KT...AND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THE MORNING
EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN USUAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 292057
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
155 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW
8 KT...AND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THE MORNING
EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN USUAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS66 KSGX 292014
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
114 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW
COOLING AND A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW
WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS SW CA.

THE 29/1200 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS JUST
BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
FROM 6000-7000 FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
292000Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400 TO
800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
EXPERIENCE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ANY
CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE GONE BY 30/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS








000
FXUS66 KLOX 291800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MAKE SURE EVERYWHERE WAS JUST AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING MOST PLACES SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PERFECTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MODELS LOOK A LITTLE
WETTER TODAY AS THEY BRING THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...SO
MAY BE INCREASING THE POPS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1700Z WAS NEAR 600 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

GENERALLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM KSBA NORTHWARD ARE ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE FORECASTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MARINE CLOUD COVER. COASTAL TAF SITES SOUTH
OF KSBA ARE LIKELY TO SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 291745
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (WHICH GOES WELL WITH THE KOAK SOUNDING SHOWING
2-5C OF WARMING UP TO 850 MB). LITTLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF
FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN RETURNS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THE METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA (LIKELY THE SOUTHERN HALF) LATE
ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL INTO
THE REGION. IF THE 12Z MODELS KEEP LOCKING ON THIS SOLUTION, POPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BOOSTED FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.

CLIMATE TIDBIT -- SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST 19%
OF THE TIME ON HALLOWEEN DAY, AND JUST 9% OF THE TIME MORE THAN 0.10"
WAS RECORDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO REAL SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW
THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON
BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM
IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR IS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:36 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 291657
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
UPPER AIR PLOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
500-250MB FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM 850-700MB HAS BEEN MORE EASTERLY...THE DRY CONTINENTAL FETCH
KEEPING SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA...AND WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL SOON MIX OUT AS WE WARM
UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND GO THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...AND DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY WARM AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES BY FRIDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S. THE SHORT TERM DIGITAL
FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURE CURRENT SURFACE OBS/MODEL TRENDS...FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES BELIE THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST
MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME
MODEST QPF OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN WEAK...LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL READINGS OF LIGHT
VARIABLE. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 6KT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S...WITH HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS BY TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE LOWER
DESERTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS66 KSGX 291628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW COOLING AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE -8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT
LAKE CITY...AND -1.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS. THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
OVER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

THE 29/0000 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PEAK
TODAY...RAISING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DUSTING TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM 6000-7000
FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT....EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400
TO 800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
SEE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS








000
FXUS66 KSGX 291628
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
928 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOW COOLING AND A
RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CREATING COOLER...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER. SLOW WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE -8.2 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT
LAKE CITY...AND -1.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS. THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE EASTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
OVER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

THE 29/0000 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PEAK
TODAY...RAISING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ACROSS SW CA SINCE
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE VALLEYS...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DUSTING TO
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM 6000-7000
FT...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY DIP DOWN TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST...TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INLAND. 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 MPH WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...LOW INLAND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
291530Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT....EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED AROUND 400
TO 800 FEET MSL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z...WITH AREAS OF
3-5 SM VIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL MESAS. THE COASTAL TAFS COULD
SEE BRIEF CIGS AND LOWER VIS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...TS








000
FXUS66 KLOX 291617
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MAKE SURE EVERYWHERE WAS JUST AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING MOST PLACES SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE IN AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF PERFECTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE MODELS LOOK A LITTLE
WETTER TODAY AS THEY BRING THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...SO
MAY BE INCREASING THE POPS FOR VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1045Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z. THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 06-09Z THEN SURGING NORTH INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 07-10Z WITH LOWER 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL SURGE NORTH INTO KSBA...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS KSMX AFTER 10Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS COULD AFFECT KSMX BY 11Z THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/900 AM

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSTO 291608
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
908 AM PDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather into Thursday afternoon. A frontal system will impact
northern interior California late Thursday into Saturday with rain
and mountain snow along with cooler daytime temperatures. Snow
levels will lower to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. Drier and
milder weather early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Today will be another mild day of weather with a mix of sunshine
and clouds. Daytime highs will be above normal by 5-10 degrees.
Valley highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s while mountain
highs range in the 60s and 70s.

Of course, the main weather story remains focused on the cold, wet
weather arriving late Thursday into Saturday which will impact
Halloween. Taking a look at the latest precipitation forecast (liquid
equivalent) from the CNRFC shows that amounts have increased by
about 30%. This means we`ll be updating our rain and snow amounts
for this storm in this afternoon`s forecast package after we make
minor changes to temperatures and snow levels. The main challenge
for the snow forecast will be timing of lowering snow levels. If
they drop faster than previously thought, this could increase snow
amounts. In terms of timing of the main precipitation, it still
looks as though the Valley and including Shasta County will have
peak precipitation on Friday afternoon (before 5 pm).
Precipitation will continue into the evening, but be lighter. The
Sierra precipitation will peak Friday night. Stay tuned for the
afternoon update.  JBB

.Previous Discussion...
Cold upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska
continues to work its way closer to the west coast where the upper
ridge will amplify and shift east over the next couple of days.
Moisture riding up and over the ridge from the southwest will
bring more clouds to the region today, but appears the main shower
threat will remain north of the region. Temperatures will remain
mild across the region today and Thursday.

Still appears that we`re on track for a change to cooler, breezier
weather with widespread precipitation on Friday as a frontal
system moves into NorCal. GFS and EC have trended a little slower
with the front as the upstream trough deepens offshore. Looks like
the front will move through the forecast area during the day on
Friday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms behind the
front Friday evening.

Cool and unsettled weather continues Saturday as the upper trough
moves overhead, then gradually drier and milder weather returns
Sunday and early next week as the trough shifts east and
northwesterly flow develops across the region ahead of a building
ridge over the eastern Pacific.

Main weather impacts with the system will be the potential for
some significant snowfall across the higher elevations of the
northern Sierra Nevada, and whether trick-or-treaters will be wet.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging forecast to return into
early next week leading to a return of dry northwesterly flow for
much of interior NorCal and a retreat of precipitation chances to
around the Oregon border. Daytime highs will be below normal until
Tuesday when they start increasing to near seasonal values.


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds
generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KMTR 291552
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR START TO
THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (WHICH GOES WELL WITH THE KOAK SOUNDING SHOWING
2-5C OF WARMING UP TO 850 MB). LITTLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF
FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN RETURNS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THE METRO AREAS ON
FRIDAY. BIGGER QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA (LIKELY THE SOUTHERN HALF) LATE
ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/SMALL HAIL INTO
THE REGION. IF THE 12Z MODELS KEEP LOCKING ON THIS SOLUTION, POPS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BOOSTED FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.

CLIMATE TIDBIT -- SAN FRANCISCO HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL JUST 19%
OF THE TIME ON HALLOWEEN DAY, AND JUST 9% OF THE TIME MORE THAN 0.10"
WAS RECORDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO REAL SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW
THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON
BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM
IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS AROUND THE
BAY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SQL AND SO
WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SFO TO EXPERIENCE SOME LOWERED
CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. KOAK REPORTED BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBY
IN FOG AND WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR THE SAME.
DIFFICULT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE
AND THE OBSERVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN
LOWERED CEILINGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
FOR THIS MORNING BUT WITH ENOUGH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE THERE ARE
TRANSIENT AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AROUND THE
BAY...WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z. DRY AND
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT. OVERNIGHT LOWERED CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN 09-12Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 16Z ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE APPROACH THEN THE TERMINAL
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z THU.  CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 291155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK
SOUTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO
RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THUS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IN
GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER SOUTH. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO
FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING IT
GENERALLY APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NORTHWEST CA
NEXT WEEK. JT/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF IFR NORTH OF THE CAPE
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES. MOIST AIR WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND
PERHAPS PERIODIC IFR NEAR THE COAST. CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL
DEVELOP AT KACV AND KCEC IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
DISSIPATES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD
REACH 15-25KT IN THE OUTER WATERS ON THU. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND BRING A RETURN OF NORTH WINDS. HOW LONG THE
NORTH WINDS PERSIST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO
INDICATE A WARM FRONT BUSTING DOWN ON THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
MAY SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH NORTH OF CAPE MENDO. WESTERLY
SWELL HAS BEEN RUNNING AROUND 8-9 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWELL
SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THU. HOWEVER SOUTH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
WILL START TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEST SWELL FROM THIS STORM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRI AND
THEN BUILD FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE GFS
WINDS OF 30-40KT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE WW3 MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS THE SWELL PEAKING AROUND 11-14 FT FRI NIGHT OR
SAT MORNING.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291155
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:03 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NO REAL SHORT TERM
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN
MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL
INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS AROUND THE
BAY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SQL AND SO
WILL CONTINUE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR SFO TO EXPERIENCE SOME LOWERED
CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. KOAK REPORTED BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBY
IN FOG AND WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR THE SAME.
DIFFICULT TO RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY NATURE
AND THE OBSERVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN
LOWERED CEILINGS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
FOR THIS MORNING BUT WITH ENOUGH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE THERE ARE
TRANSIENT AND OCCASIONAL REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AROUND THE
BAY...WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z. DRY AND
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 KT. OVERNIGHT LOWERED CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN 09-12Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 16Z ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE APPROACH THEN THE TERMINAL
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z THU.  CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: JOHNSON

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 291150 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLOW PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MODEST WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BY FRIDAY BUT THAT STILL MEANS
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BELIE
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN SOME MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME MODEST QPF
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT ENOUGH
TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN WEAK...LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL READINGS OF LIGHT
VARIABLE. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 6KT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S...WITH HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS BY TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE LOWER
DESERTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB













000
FXUS66 KLOX 291127
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1045Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z. THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR LA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 06-09Z THEN SURGING NORTH INTO
THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 07-10Z WITH LOWER 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL SURGE NORTH INTO KSBA...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR NORTH AS KSMX AFTER 10Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY
SURGE OF STRATUS COULD AFFECT KSMX BY 11Z THU MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSGX 291126
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOW COOLING
THURSDAY AND A LITTLE GREATER COOLING FRIDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLING...LIGHT TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTY LOCALLY STRONG
WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SLOWLY WARMER SUNDAY.
GREATER WARMING FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TUESDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY...COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY...
WITH GREATER COOLING TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY. AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A STILL FAIRLY WEAK INVERSION
NEAR 1000 FEET. HOWEVER THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP PATCHY
STRATUS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOME TOWARDS THE GREATER ECMWF MOS NUMBERS
WITH THE QPF INCREASED SOME AS WELL. LOWER POPS ARE RETAINED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE LAST SHORTWAVE THE
ECMWF BRINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH IS THE MAIN AREA WHERE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIFFER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SLOW WARMING WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH GREATER WARMING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPANDS INTO
CALIFORNIA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGS
MODERATE STRENGTH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND
VALLEYS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
290930Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BASED
AT AROUND 900 FEET MSL ALONG THE COAST AFTER 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KEKA 291118
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK
SOUTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT TO
RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THUS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IN
GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER SOUTH. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO
FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING IT
GENERALLY APPEARS THAT DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NORTHWEST CA
NEXT WEEK. JT/RPA

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVEWAY
TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TODAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 291103
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
403 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS THE BAY AREA TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF SANTA CRUZ AND OVER THE HILLS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:03 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...NO REAL SHORT TERM
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TODAY. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY PATCH OF CLOUDS IS OFF THE SAN
MATEO COAST WITH HALF MOON BAY REPORTING A 400 FOOT CLOUD DECK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARM IN THE HILLS WITH MANY SITES WELL
INTO THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MILD IN THE 50S. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY WARM OCTOBER AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC COLD FRONT OF INTEREST. SO STILL TWO
MORE DRY DAYS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEATHER AND CLEAN OUT THE GUTTERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N/150W AND
FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. ONCE AGAIN THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW THE COLD TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A
TONGUE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS CURRENTLY POINTED AT
CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAS PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
BODEGA BAY PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IWV)
VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH WHICH IS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD THE RIGHT UP-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOP.

ANYWAY THE NAM SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MARCH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO STRONG AND NOT SEEING MUCH WIND OF NOTE. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHEST IN THE NORTH BAY
INITIALLY BUT STILL SEEING 0.25 ON AVERAGE FOR THE BAY AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL RAINS ON FRIDAY. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE
DOES THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (COLD AIR AND PVA) MOVE ONSHORE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT OVER THE BAY AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD BRING IDEAL SET-UP FOR COLD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM KEEP THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR OFFSHORE AS ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN THE BACKSIDE...ESSENTIALLY SLOWING THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT
PRODUCING LESS THAN IDEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL
BOTH IN THE BAY AREA AND SIERRA. IF THE NAM TRENDS THE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE...SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO
STRONG REASON TO WAVER FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BETTER DATA
ASSIMILATION WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW STILL WELL OFFSHORE. UPSHOT
IS THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FRIDAY COMMUTE AND ANY OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REALLY WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WHERE NW WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
WHILE PLACES LIKE NAPA COUNTY WILL TREND MUCH DRIER.

WILL NEED TO THEN MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
INVERSIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING SUNNY
AND MILD WEATHER. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT MORE TROUGHING
AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE 0430Z FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COASTAL STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NEW 00Z NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ARE
RAMPED UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO BROKEN GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR KSFO AND
KOAK. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING THAT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 15 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:24 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 291102
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
402 AM PDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather through early Thursday. A frontal system will impact
northern interior California late Thursday into Saturday with rain
and mountain snow along with cooler daytime temperatures. Snow
levels will lower to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. Drier and
milder weather early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Cold upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska continues to work its
way closer to the west coast where the upper ridge will amplify
and shift east over the next couple of days. Moisture riding up
and over the ridge from the southwest will bring more clouds to
the region today, but appears the main shower threat will remain
north of the region. Temperatures will remain mild across the
region today and Thursday.

Still appears that we`re on track for a change to cooler, breezier
weather with widespread precipitation on Friday as a frontal
system moves into NorCal. GFS and EC have trended a little slower
with the front as the upstream trough deepens offshore. Looks like
the front will move through the forecast area during the day on
Friday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms behind the
front Friday evening.

Cool and unsettled weather continues Saturday as the upper trough
moves overhead, then gradually drier and milder weather returns
Sunday and early next week as the trough shifts east and
northwesterly flow develops across the region ahead of a building
ridge over the eastern Pacific.

Main weather impacts with the system will be the potential for
some significant snowfall across the higher elevations of the
northern Sierra Nevada, and whether trick-or-treaters will be wet.
We`ll continue to monitor.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conds expected to cont over the next 24 hours. Winds generally
below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KLOX 291046
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1045Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291046
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...THEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH 585 DM HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
NOT TOO GREAT AND THE COASTS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. VLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING ABOVE 15 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE UP
FROM ORANGE COUNTY INTO LA COUNTY AND THEN VENTURA COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS NOT HAPPENING AND SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN.

SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A EAST PAC TROF MOVE INTO THE AREA. MORE
IMPORTANTLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND HGTS WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL EVERYWHERE. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT INLAND TEMPS
THOUGH COOLER THAN TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH
BIG TROFS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS AND A LARGE RIDGE IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CREATE AN EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD
LAYER WHICH WILL COVER THE COASTS AND ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS.

THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROF WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL COAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME
RAIN COULD FALL FROM CAMBRIA NORTH. ALL THE SPECTRAL MDLS AGREE THAT
RAIN WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM
BEGS TO DIFFER AND HOLDS OFF. SO WENT WITH A 70 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN
INSTEAD OF 90 PERCENT DUE TO NAM BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP LIKE A BRICK WITH MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S FOR LA
AND VTA COUNTIES.

IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL
SEE SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT RAIN BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST MDL AND THE EC IS THE
QUICKEST.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROF ROLLS OVERHEAD
AND THE PVA IS REPLACED BY NVA. BY AFTERNOON THE ONLY SHOWERS
REMAINING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES DUE TO NORTH FLOW AND THE
SAN GABRIEL VLY AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
DAY WILL START OF CLOUDY BUT SKIES WILL START TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESP NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

COASTAL AND VLY MAX TEMPS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 60S.

QPF FOR THE EVENT IS PRETTY TRICKY. THE MDLS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT. THE NEW EC FOR EXAMPLE IS VERY WET AND HAS SOME 6
TENTHS OF AN INCH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS. THE NAM FCSTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR LA AND VTA COUNTIES WITH QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS FORECASTS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MORE
THAN THE NAM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE EC IS ALL BY ITSELF
FORECASTING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE USUAL RAIN
MAGNET SPOTS NEAR HEARST CASTLE AND PASADENA FOOTHILLS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET LATE BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT FOR THE STORM. BY AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/1045Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1040Z WAS NEAR 800 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 10 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS
13-16Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDS AFTER
09Z EARLY THU MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

29/345 AM

WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
THEN ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291045 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLOW PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MODEST WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BY FRIDAY BUT THAT STILL MEANS
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BELIE
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN SOME MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME MODEST QPF
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT ENOUGH
TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 291045 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLOW PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MODEST WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BY FRIDAY BUT THAT STILL MEANS
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BELIE
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN SOME MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME MODEST QPF
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT ENOUGH
TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB










000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLOW PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MODEST WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BY FRIDAY BUT THAT STILL MEANS
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BELIE
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN SOME MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME MODEST QPF
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT ENOUGH
TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLOW PATTERN STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MODEST WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BY FRIDAY BUT THAT STILL MEANS
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY BELIE
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN SOME MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME MODEST QPF
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT ENOUGH
TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB







000
FXUS66 KHNX 291036
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
336 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY AND
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. 06Z WRF INDICATING
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY THEN
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RESULT OF RISES IN HEIGHTS
AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SPREAD INCREASED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED. THE CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SHOWERY ON
SATURDAY THEN TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RFC QPF PROGS ARE
INDICATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THE VALLEY IN OVER SIX MONTHS. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN
UTILIZING A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THIS STORM AND LATER SHIFTS WILL BE CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SINCE THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY...A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IS LIKELY ON SATRUDAY. IN ADDITION TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATRUDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEG F BELOW THURSDAY/S
READINGS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A SLOW
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 291036
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
336 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY AND
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS MORNING. 06Z WRF INDICATING
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND TODAY THEN
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RESULT OF RISES IN HEIGHTS
AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN
COUNTY DESERTS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THE LOW IS PROGGED
TO SPREAD INCREASED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED. THE CURRENT TIMING INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SHOWERY ON
SATURDAY THEN TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RFC QPF PROGS ARE
INDICATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THE VALLEY IN OVER SIX MONTHS. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
ABOVE 7000 FEET AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN
UTILIZING A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THIS STORM AND LATER SHIFTS WILL BE CONSIDERING UPGRADING TO A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SINCE THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL CA ON SATURDAY...A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IS LIKELY ON SATRUDAY. IN ADDITION TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WINDS...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATRUDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEG F BELOW THURSDAY/S
READINGS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A SLOW
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972

KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KREV 290930
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
230 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL AS LOW AS
4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER
RIDGES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE COAST, BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURE AND WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH GUSTS
PEAKING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THIS IS LESS THAN OUR PREVIOUS
TWO WIND EVENTS, HOWEVER IS STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE IMPACTS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES AND BLOW AROUND ANY HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

THE INITIAL BAND OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THE
TIMING OF WHICH HAS SLOWED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS IN MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS. THEREFORE, HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION REACHING NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A SPLIT IN
THE TROUGH AS THE JET DIGS SOUTH WITH THE BEST ENERGY PUSHING INTO
MONO COUNTY, WHICH IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY STARTING IN THE SIERRA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

IT IS UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEVADA
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES, BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE CAVEAT IS MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEFORMATION BAND FORMING IN
WESTERN NEVADA ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER WITH SHOWERS LASTING LONGER.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE AN APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SOURCE, BUT IS
VERY DYNAMIC WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE ON TRACK FOR
THE SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 5000 FEET IN WESTERN
NEVADA. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA, IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE, AND ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE JET POSITION, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. DJ


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THIS MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
FOR SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM IS MORE SPLIT AS IT LIFTS OUT
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE FASTEST WITH THE EC SLOWER AND NAM SLOWEST. WITH THE SPLIT
LIFTING OUT, THE MODELS ARE NOW STRONGER WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING AND SOME STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THESE TRENDS, HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEVADA. IF THIS DEVELOPS, A BAND OF RAIN/MTN SNOW WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. FOR THE SIERRA,
EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEVADA AS THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP SO A STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL
ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY 40-50 DEGREES. THAT WILL
FEEL COLDER WITH SOME LOCALLY BRISK W-NW WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.

EXPECT SOME SLOW CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND. IF SKIES CLEAR, IT WILL BE A COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
LEADING TO FEWER CLOUDS WITH COLD NIGHTS. DURING THE DAY, EXPECT
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE VALLEY INVERSIONS THAT WILL KEEP WESTERN NV
SLOWER TO WARM UP THAN THE SIERRA. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SIMILAR HIGHS AT KTVL AND KRNO/KLOL DUE TO THE INVERSIONS.
WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM THE SW NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA.

STORM STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE SIERRA IN RA/SN WITH SOME RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6000 FEET.. LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -RA FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS NOW AS
SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. PROBABILITY OF
IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING SIERRA TERMINALS 80% AND MVFR CIGS/VIS IN
WESTERN NV 50-60%. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KMTR 290608
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1108 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT TUESDAY...A PEAK OUT THE WINDOW
AND GLANCE AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMP AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO UPPER 70S AROUND THE BAY. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN FILTERING IN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST THAT HAS CAPTURED THE ATTENTION OF ALL
TRICK OR TREATERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY PUTTING A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE
NORTH BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND PROGGED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY AFFECTING THE
BAY AREA MORNING COMMUTE AND RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS ACROSS AREA
AIRPORTS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST BAND
OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25".

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP TO
1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE 0430Z FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED COASTAL STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
OF SAN MATEO COUNTY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NEW 00Z NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ARE
RAMPED UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO BROKEN GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FOR KSFO AND
KOAK. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS STILL CONSIDERED LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING THAT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE SHOULD TOP OUT AT AROUND 15 KT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:39 PM PDT TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A COASTAL JET WILL
RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: DRP/BLIER

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 290538
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WEST. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE WARMING IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS AGREEABLE...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE PLANNED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RATHER THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...NEAR 700 FEET...REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL KEEP
THE FOOTHILLS WARM TONIGHT...WITH SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ONLY
SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL REMAIN ON
CHILLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
ANTELOPE...OJAI AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVER THE LA AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...

29/0530Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0505Z WAS NEAR 700 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2000 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 222 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS...EXCEPT KLAX AND KLGB WHERE THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR
CONDS FORM 12Z-17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KSTO 290447
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
947 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather through early Thursday. A frontal system will impact
northern interior California late Thursday into Saturday with rain
and snow and cooler daytime temperatures. Snow levels will lower
to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. Drier and warmer weather early
next week.

&&

.Discussion...
A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest with the tail of the
front spreading some light showers or sprinkles over the northwest
part of the state. A few sprinkles may make its way into parts of
Western Shasta County overnight into early Wednesday otherwise
just expect clouds over the north tonight that will help to keep
temperatures a little warmer tonight.

As the next system approaches a ridge will start to amplify a
little over California on Wednesday. The models have slowed the
pace of the system a little but both are still not quite in sink
with one another. The GFS is still a little bit faster that the
NAM. Some light precipitation may start over the northern areas
and coastal range late Thursday night out ahead of the main front
as moisture spreads over the region. The main band will come in on
Friday during the morning for the coastal range and parts of the
western Sacramento valley and then spread east for the afternoon.
There is a chance the far southeastern portions of the CWA may
stay dry for the trick or treaters but most other areas should be
wet. The coastal range and far western end of the valley will
likely see showers with possible thunderstorms developing behind
the front.

Unstable air behind the front will give the interior a chance of
thunderstorms pretty much everywhere Friday night. The low will
still be over the region Saturday morning with a chance of showers
continuing and isolated thunderstorms. Its not until Saturday
evening when the low moves far enough to the east that more stable
air move over the area and dry things out. Conditions may become
breezy to windy from the northwest to north behind the front by
Sunday morning.


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Confidence continues to increase that we`ll see a significant
winter-like system affecting the region Halloween into Saturday.
Timing of the initial frontal system moving inland has improved
with the 00Z Monday operational runs of the GFS, EC and GEM
pointing toward daytime Friday for the onset of precipitation with
showers continuing Friday night and Saturday as the upper trough
moves overhead. Moderate amounts of precipitation, gusty winds and
potentially moderate amounts of snowfall for the higher
elevations of the northern Sierra will be possible with this
system.

Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging forecast to return into
early next week leading to a return of dry northwesterly flow for
much of interior NorCal and a retreat of precipitation chances to
around the Oregon border.

JClapp/Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Scattered
mid level clouds over the northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSGX 290416
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY. MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GREATER COOLER FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR AND MILD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS 587 DM OVER SO-CAL WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN EVEN WARMER DAY TOMORROW THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. THE RIDGE
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN(!) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EARLY SEASON STORM...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GLOOMY WEATHER ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 105 KT JET WILL PASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER TO 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED
LIFT OF THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20KTS FRIDAY EVENING SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHICS HERE TOO.

PRECIP TOTALS...RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH TO
AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS ZONES. A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN THE FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 900-1200 FT MSL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
850 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FAVORED
SPOTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS66 KSGX 290416
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY. MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GREATER COOLER FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS EARLY SEASON TROUGH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH WARMER DAYS AND WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLEAR AND MILD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS 587 DM OVER SO-CAL WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN EVEN WARMER DAY TOMORROW THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. THE RIDGE
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY. LOWER HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO COASTAL
AND VALLEY ZONES...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN(!) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS EARLY SEASON STORM...IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GLOOMY WEATHER ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL 105 KT JET WILL PASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER TO 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDED
LIFT OF THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS. 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20KTS FRIDAY EVENING SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHICS HERE TOO.

PRECIP TOTALS...RAIN TOTALS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH TO
AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS ZONES. A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH IN THE FAVORED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
290345Z...A FEW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 900-1200 FT MSL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.
OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
850 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FAVORED
SPOTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS










000
FXUS65 KPSR 290401
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FRIDAY...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE DESERTS. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE AT
OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AS OF 04Z.

INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR
NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. MORNING LOWS STILL LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BASED ON LATEST BC GUIDANCE...RIGHT IN LINE
WITH INHERITED GRIDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL
WARM UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER DESERT
SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF
NICELY...DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OFFSETS MINOR ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THAT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERLIES. OF NOTE...THE SREF DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
A BIT OF CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MORE MOIST ADVECTION FROM
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE IMPULSE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND FOR OUR AREA WOULD ONLY
ANTICIPATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT MOST. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE BREEZES TO PICK UP FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT
AND SHOW A BIT MORE COLD ADVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. IN
FACT...IT DEPICTS A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND MAKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT IT EVEN
GENERATES VERY LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT DOES NOT
HAVE QUITE AS MUCH COOLING NOR ANY QPF OVER OUR AREA OR EVEN OVER
ARIZONA FOR THAT MEANWHILE...THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER
SOLUTION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COOL THINGS DOWN EVEN MORE FOR
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE IDEA OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING TEMPS COOL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE FORM THEY TAKE WITH THE GFS EVOLVING
A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. BIGGEST STORY FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE THE COOLING...GOING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NICE AND COOL WITH MID 50S ON THE WARMEST DESERTS
AND LOW-MID 40S ON THE COOLEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290401
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FRIDAY...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE DESERTS. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE AT
OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AS OF 04Z.

INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR
NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. MORNING LOWS STILL LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BASED ON LATEST BC GUIDANCE...RIGHT IN LINE
WITH INHERITED GRIDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL
WARM UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER DESERT
SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF
NICELY...DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OFFSETS MINOR ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THAT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERLIES. OF NOTE...THE SREF DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
A BIT OF CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MORE MOIST ADVECTION FROM
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE IMPULSE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND FOR OUR AREA WOULD ONLY
ANTICIPATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT MOST. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE BREEZES TO PICK UP FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT
AND SHOW A BIT MORE COLD ADVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. IN
FACT...IT DEPICTS A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND MAKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT IT EVEN
GENERATES VERY LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT DOES NOT
HAVE QUITE AS MUCH COOLING NOR ANY QPF OVER OUR AREA OR EVEN OVER
ARIZONA FOR THAT MEANWHILE...THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER
SOLUTION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COOL THINGS DOWN EVEN MORE FOR
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE IDEA OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING TEMPS COOL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE FORM THEY TAKE WITH THE GFS EVOLVING
A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. BIGGEST STORY FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE THE COOLING...GOING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NICE AND COOL WITH MID 50S ON THE WARMEST DESERTS
AND LOW-MID 40S ON THE COOLEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...LEINS/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS66 KLOX 290351
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
851 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WEST. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE WARMING IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS AGREEABLE...AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE PLANNED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RATHER THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH...NEAR 700 FEET...REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE BACKING
OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A THIN MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL KEEP
THE FOOTHILLS WARM TONIGHT...WITH SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ONLY
SEEING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL REMAIN ON
CHILLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
ANTELOPE...OJAI AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD
LINGER OVER THE LA AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/2342Z.

THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 2342Z WAS NEAR 700 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS ALL THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290342
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
842 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:42 PM PDT TUESDAY...A PEAK OUT THE WINDOW
AND GLANCE AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMP AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO UPPER 70S AROUND THE BAY. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN FILTERING IN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST THAT HAS CAPTURED THE ATTENTION OF ALL
TRICK OR TREATERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY PUTTING A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE
NORTH BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND PROGGED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DISTRICT FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY AFFECTING THE
BAY AREA MORNING COMMUTE AND RESULTING IN WET RUNWAYS ACROSS AREA
AIRPORTS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST BAND
OF RAIN EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25".

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP TO
1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE
A BRIEF STRATUS EVENT LATE TONIGHT. DISCOUNTING HOWEVER...AS BOTH
ALSO INDICATED SIMILARLY LAST NIGHT AND YET SKIES REMAINED CLEAR
DISTRICTWIDE. IF ANYTHING...TREND IS IN A WARMER/DRIER DIRECTION
FOR TOMORROW. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE EARLY EVENING WINDS AROUND 15 KT THEN
DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290054
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
554 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. RAINS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME...RAINS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD DOWN THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. LATE IN THE MORNING...RAINS SHOULD TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIALLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP
TO 1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE A BRIEF
STRATUS EVENT LATE TONIGHT. DISCOUNTING HOWEVER...AS BOTH ALSO
INDICATED SIMILARLY LAST NIGHT AND YET SKIES REMAINED CLEAR
DISTRICTWIDE. IF ANYTHING...TREND IS IN A WARMER/DRIER DIRECTION
FOR TOMORROW. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE EARLY EVENING WINDS AROUND 15 KT THEN
DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE-TO-HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: DRP/BLIER
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282342
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
442 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW WILL MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL
MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...

NOTHING BUT CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS A RESULT. LESS NOTICEABLE CHANGE
FOR THE SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
GET A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE LONG BEACH AREA...AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MORE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREEP
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE LA AND VENTURA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE LA AND
VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW
WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/2342Z.

THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 2342Z WAS NEAR 700 FT. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES C.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH 08Z.

KLAX...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  HOWEVER...THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KHNX 282232
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
332 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND TODAY AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
DRY AND CLEAR TODAY. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS A RIDGE OFF SCAL
COAST EXTENDS NE AND INLAND THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL CA THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OFF THE PAC NW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT. MEDIUM RANGE OP MODELS ARE STRONGER THAN THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT TIMING OF SYSTEM IN GOOD CONSENSUS. THE EC
MODEL BRINGS COLDER AIR AND MORE RAIN THAN GFS TOWARDS THE
TEHACHAPIS AND SOUTH VALLEY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY SPOIL HALLOWEEN FOR SOME TRICK OR TREATERS
AS MODELS FORECAST PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MERCED AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. PW
VALUES ALONG FRONT NEAR 15MM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT MOMENT. HOWEVER
MODEL MEAN PW FORECAST INCREASES TO 20MM AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PROBABLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
ABOVE 6KFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING TROUGH THE TROUGH. THE AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
STRONG WEST FLOW AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE STRONG GUSTY WINDS BELOW
THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

A COOL DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. A WARM AND DRY TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
COMBINES WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-28       89:2003     58:1971     61:1987     33:1970
KFAT 10-29       88:1915     55:1996     61:1914     29:1971
KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972

KBFL 10-28       92:2003     55:1971     61:1987     35:1919
KBFL 10-29       92:1913     56:1971     61:1914     31:1900
KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282228
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTLING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF SHELTER COVE AND WEST OF TRINITY COUNTY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL SINK SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT TO RETREAT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IN GENERAL CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE NORTH MENDOCINO
COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET. AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR PRIMARILY OVER 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY STRONGER SHOWER
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS DOWN
TO SEA LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION IS CURRENTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

THIS CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY THOUGH IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE
WHICH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AND ALSO WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO ISSUES RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING...TRAJECTORY...AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT POTENTIAL WEST COAST STORM. THUS CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT VERY LOW
ON WHAT TRANSPIRES BEYOND TUESDAY. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT AT KCEC AND KACV. THEREFORE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT
KCEC AND KACV. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS HAS
INCREASED THE WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 282226
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
326 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather through early Thursday. A frontal system will impact
northern interior California late Thursday into Saturday with rain
and snow and cooler daytime temperatures. Snow levels will lower
to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. Drier and warmer weather early
next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Mostly sunny this afternoon except for some clouds over Shasta
County ahead of a weak front. Temperatures warming up into the
70s in the Valley and mid 50s to 60s in the mountains this
afternoon. These temperatures are near to a little above normal
for this time of year. Temperatures will warm up a little more on
Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s in the Valley and
upper 50s to low 70s in the mountains. There is a slight chance of
showers for Western Shasta County as a weak front brushes by
tonight into early Wednesday, otherwise dry through early Thursday.
Temperatures will start to cool a little on Thursday as a system
approaches the area.

A colder and wet storm comes in late Thursday into Friday
(Halloween) spreading precipitation across interior Northern
California. Showers will continue Friday night and Saturday as
upper level trough moves over the area. Gusty Southerly winds are
expected on Friday as the front moves through the area. The
heaviest precipitation is expected in the north Friday morning and
the south in the afternoon. Precipitation is possible for the
trick or treaters Friday evening. Thunderstorms are possible with
instability behind the front Friday late afternoon and evening.
Valley precipitation amounts may generally be around a quarter to
half an inch and one to two inches in the Sierra and Shasta County
mountains. Snow levels will start out around 7000 to 8000 ft
Friday morning and lower to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. This
will bring winter driving conditions and possible travel delays
over the Sierra Friday into Saturday. High temperatures will only
be in the 60s in the Valley and low 30s to low 50s in the
mountains on Friday and Saturday which is several degrees below normal for
this time of year. With the colder airmass and some clearing
Friday night will be cooler.

The trough shifts east late Saturday into Sunday with ridging
forecast to return into early next week. A weak system may glance
by the far North, mainly Shasta County for a slight chance of
showers, otherwise dry conditions and warmer max temperatures are expected
Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to warm up to
near normal on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in
the Valley and upper 40s to low 60s in the mountains.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. A weak
disturbance will bring a slight chance of light rain showers to
the coastal mountains tonight, dry elswhere. Scattered mid level
clouds over the northern Sacramento Valley. Winds will remain
generally below 10 knots. EK

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 282214
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
314 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. RAINS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME...RAINS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD DOWN THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. LATE IN THE MORNING...RAINS SHOULD TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10" TO 0.25" CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIALLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWEEPS
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS UP
TO 1.00" IN THE HIGHER COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY SHIFTS INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
REGION-WIDE. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A DRY
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WIND TURNS ONSHORE...HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY WIPING OUT
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
1000Z AND 1400Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS POSSIBLE AT
KMRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:14 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL
MAINTAIN LOCALIZED MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF POINT SUR TONIGHT. A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 2 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 282207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
305 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW WILL MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL
MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOR A WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...

NOTHING BUT CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE UP
SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS A RESULT. LESS NOTICABLE CHANGE
FOR THE SBA...VENTURA...AND LA COASTAL AREAS...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
GET A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE LONG BEACH AREA...AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MORE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES OF WARMING...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREEP
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE LA AND VENTURA COAST TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS WELL...RESULTING IN COOLING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

ANY RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL SLOPES N OF
PT CONCEPTION SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.25 - 0.50" BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 0.50" THAT
IT PREVIOUSLY HAD. EITHER WAY MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST
IS A SURE THING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHEN
AND HOW MUCH.

FOR AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...ANY CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONLY GOING WITH 20-30% POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF ANYTHING FALLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 0.10"
OR LESS.

COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ABOVE 6000 FT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
AIRMASS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AS WELL. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ACTUAL
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AND
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE LA AND
VENTURA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHEN NW
WINDS MAY STENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS FROM THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

A WARMING TEND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
RESULT IN DRIER CONDTIONS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

AT 1725Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MINIMAL INVERSION.  THE BASE WAS AT OR
BELOW 100 FT AND THE TOP WAS AT 200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR KLAX AND KLGB 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA EDDY
SPIN UP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA SPIN UP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  HOWEVER... THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.   WINDS COULD REACH GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 282143
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FRIDAY...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S
ON THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS...DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NEAR 90
DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER DESERT SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONCE
AGAIN COOL OFF NICELY...DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OFFSETS MINOR ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THAT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERLIES. OF NOTE...THE SREF DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
A BIT OF CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MORE MOIST ADVECTION FROM
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE IMPULSE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND FOR OUR AREA WOULD ONLY
ANTICIPATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT MOST. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE BREEZES TO PICK UP FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT
AND SHOW A BIT MORE COLD ADVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. IN
FACT...IT DEPICTS A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND MAKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT IT EVEN
GENERATES VERY LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT DOES NOT
HAVE QUITE AS MUCH COOLING NOR ANY QPF OVER OUR AREA OR EVEN OVER
ARIZONA FOR THAT MEANWHILE...THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER
SOLUTION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COOL THINGS DOWN EVEN MORE FOR
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE IDEA OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING TEMPS COOL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE FORM THEY TAKE WITH THE GFS EVOLVING
A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. BIGGEST STORY FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE THE COOLING...GOING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NICE AND COOL WITH MID 50S ON THE WARMEST DESERTS
AND LOW-MID 40S ON THE COOLEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
WEAKLY TREND TOWARDS THEIR DIURNAL HEADINGS...SOMETIMES REMAINING SO
LIGHT TO GENERATE MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS. NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING KBLH...THAT COULD
RESULT IN 8-10KT READINGS FOR PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. ELEVATED WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER VARIABLE TO SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY HEADINGS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS65 KREV 282140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND SNOW INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 4500
FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK OVER
OREGON. A COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH WITH INCREASED
COULD COVER NORTH OF I-80, THERE COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR VIRGA OVER NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY TONIGHT.

WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL ERODE ANY PERSISTENT VALLEY INVERSION AND ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR THE SIERRA. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ON FRIDAY, TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS AS 700 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 40
KT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE EVIDENT ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PROJECTED SURFACE GUSTS OF 35-40
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND UP TO 70 MPH FOR SIERRA RIDGES.

INITIAL BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REACH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING. AS
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARRIVE, ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SPLIT IN THIS TROUGH WITH MORE FORCING
DIRECTED TOWARD MONO COUNTY. THIS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LONGER
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW IN MONO COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE ELSEWHERE
IN THE SIERRA BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA, A QUICK 1-2 HOURS OF RAIN IS PROBABLE FOR THE
RENO-CARSON VICINITY DURING FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. LATER IN THE NIGHT, INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WOULD LIKELY BRING A LONGER PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR WEST CENTRAL NEVADA.

OVERALL FOR EVENING HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES, EXPECT CHILLY AND WET
CONDITIONS WITH BRISK WINDS SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE MAJOR
SIERRA PASSES NEAR TAHOE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM FRIDAY, WITH
SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1 FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MAINLY IN MONO
COUNTY. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LIGHTER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN TO 5000 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY.

FOR SATURDAY, CHILLY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW OR GRAUPEL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE LOW DEPARTS, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS INCREASING A BIT EACH DAY AS FLAT RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEXT STORM FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VIS IN
SIERRA LIKELY AND SOME MVFR CIGS/VS FOR WRN NEVADA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY, BUT SFC GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PEAK
AROUND 35 KT WITH RIDGE GUSTS NEAR 60 KT, PRODUCING FEWER IMPACTS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS THIS MONTH. WALLMANN/MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSGX 282029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
129 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN
THURSDAY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. MORE EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE MARINE
LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENING. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA BRINGING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...SIGNIFICANT COOLING...A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW WARMING FOR SUNDAY WITH GREATER WARMING AND
INLAND DRYING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY 4.7 MB
OFFSHORE FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS...ONE AT THE SURFACE
AND ONE AT 2000 FEET. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER INVERSION...OFFSHORE
FLOW...AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES ALL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE LACK OF STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES AT 1 PM ARE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN AT 1 PM YESTERDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE A
TAD STRONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL WEAK OVERALL.
HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP STRATUS/FOG FROM
DEVELOPING TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SLOW RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...GRADUAL COOLING...AND LIKELY
INCREASINGLY BETTER AND DEEPER COVERAGE OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS/FOG.

12Z GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TOTALS...AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS...WITH IT NOW SHOWING 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES...AND THE
GEM ONLY AROUND 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS OVER AND WEST OF THE
SAN DIEGO/RIVERSIDE/SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...AND MAYBE THE HIGH
DESERTS. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6500-7500 FEET...AND LOCALLY 6000
FEET...SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING RATHER
STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH
PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO FAVORED ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO 10-15 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS...IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY...AND KEEP ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SCT
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE COAST...BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THAT PERIOD. WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS MAY DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FAVORED
SPOTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281801
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0900Z

AT 1725Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A MINIMAL INVERSION.  THE BASE WAS AT OR
BELOW 100 FT AND THE TOP WAS AT 200 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT CHANCE
OF MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR KLAX AND KLGB 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA EDDY
SPIN UP.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A FIVE PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS 10Z-19Z DUE TO A WEAK CATALINA SPIN UP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.  WINDS COULD REACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS BY MID SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...PLANNING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK INTO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A DRY
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WIND TURNS ONSHORE...HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING QUICKLY WIPING OUT
ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
1000Z AND 1400Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS POSSIBLE AT
KMRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOCALIZED
COASTAL JET. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281736
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1036 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THUS THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE REST OF TODAY NORTH
OF SHELTER COVE AND EAST OF TRINITY COUNTY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST. DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED
RADAR OUTAGE RAINFALL DETECTION IS UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SAT PICS AND MODEL DATA ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WAIT TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AROUND THE CRESCENT CITY AREA. LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO NORTH-
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH WITH HUMBOLDT BAY EXPECTING
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP
THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY
TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 281736 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1036 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER DEL NORTE
COUNTY WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF SHELTER
COVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.


&&

.UPDATE...RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...MUCH FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THUS THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE REST OF TODAY NORTH
OF SHELTER COVE AND WEST OF TRINITY COUNTY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT SHIFTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RPA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 352 AM PDT...

DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST. DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED
RADAR OUTAGE RAINFALL DETECTION IS UNAVAILABLE HOWEVER GIVEN THE
SAT PICS AND MODEL DATA ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WAIT TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AROUND THE CRESCENT CITY AREA. LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY WITH A LITTLE RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO NORTH-
WESTERN TRINITY COUNTY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FRONT AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO THREE QUARTERS OF A INCH WITH HUMBOLDT BAY EXPECTING
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP
THE FRONT MOVING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS A
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NW. THE FRONT
WILL GENERATE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY IN DEL NORTE COUNTY
TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN TO IFR TONIGHT AT KACV AND KCEC AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. KUKI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE VFR
THROUGH 12Z WED...HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST TONIGHT.

MARINE...A FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL EASE UP LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THU. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER WEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI
WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
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000
FXUS65 KPSR 281633
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE DESERTS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING A DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH NO IMPACT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS...
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AT LOCATIONS THAT ARE STARTING OFF COOLER
THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. TEMPS GO UP A COUPLE
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT LIVED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SHORT TERM DIGITAL FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURE CURRENT SURFACE OBS/MODEL
TRENDS...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OFFSETS MINOR ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE. THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THAT GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERLIES. OF NOTE...THE SREF DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
A BIT OF CAPE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MORE MOIST ADVECTION FROM
THE EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE IMPULSE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AND FOR OUR AREA WOULD ONLY
ANTICIPATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT MOST. THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE BREEZES TO PICK UP FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THUS
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT
AND SHOW A BIT MORE COLD ADVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. IN
FACT...IT DEPICTS A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND MAKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT IT EVEN
GENERATES VERY LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT DOES NOT
HAVE QUITE AS MUCH COOLING NOR ANY QPF OVER OUR AREA OR EVEN OVER
ARIZONA FOR THAT MEANWHILE...THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER
SOLUTION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO COOL THINGS DOWN EVEN MORE FOR
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON THE IDEA OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY KEEPING TEMPS COOL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE FORM THEY TAKE WITH THE GFS EVOLVING
A MORE DISTINCT TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. BIGGEST STORY FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE THE COOLING...GOING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE NICE AND COOL WITH MID 50S ON THE WARMEST DESERTS
AND LOW-MID 40S ON THE COOLEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERTS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERALLY WEAKLY
FOLLOWING THEIR NORMAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES OVER THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTH ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE WEST AT KIPL. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER
DESERTS SITTING IN THE LOW 90S BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS
STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND 30S. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...AND THEN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281631
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...MARINE DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS IS PRIMARILY IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THOSE ZONES.  WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE ADVANCE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT.  WINDS COULD REACH
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY THEN THROUGH ALL
COASTAL WATERS BY MID SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KSTO 281628
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
928 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Continued mild weather through Thursday. A frontal system will
impact northern interior California Friday (Halloween) and
Saturday with rain and snow and cooler daytime temperatures. Snow levels will
lower to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. Drier and warmer weather early
next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Chilly morning with temperatures in the 40s in the Valley and
generally 20s and 30s in the mountains under mainly clear skies.
These temperatures are near to a few degrees below normal for this
time of year. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s in the Valley
and mid 50s to 60s this afternoon with sunny skies under a weak
ridge of high pressure. These temperatures are near to a little
above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will warm up a
little more on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in
the Valley and upper 50s to low 70s in the mountains. There is a
slight chance of showers for Western Shasta County as system move
by to the north tonight, otherwise dry through early Thursday. A
colder and wet storm comes in late Thursday into Friday
(Halloween) spreading precipitation across interior Northern
California. Showers will continue Friday night and Saturday as
upper level trough moves over the area. Gusty Southerly winds are
expected on Friday as the front moves into the area. Valley
precipitation amounts may be around 0.20 inches to half an inch
and one to two inches in the Sierra and Shasta County mountains. Snow
levels will start out around 7000 to 8000 ft Friday morning and
lower to around 4000 ft Saturday morning. This will bring winter
driving conditions and possible travel delays over the Sierra
Friday and Saturday.Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging
forecast to return into early next week leading to a return of dry
northwesterly flow for much of interior NorCal and a retreat of
precipitation chances to around the Oregon border.


&&

.Aviation...

Flat high pressure over west coast will bring VFR conditions next
24 hours. Winds generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281609
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
909 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...PLANNING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK INTO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER ITEM OF
INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BAY AREA
AND MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTH
COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW OFFSHORE TRENDS FROM NEVADA TOWARDS
THE GOLDEN GATE WHILE THE LOCAL SFO-SAC IS VERY LIGHT ONSHORE.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER IDEAL OCTOBER
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 CELSIUS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PEAK AROUND 17 CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT WEDS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO SHOW-UP BY THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE REALLY STAYED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND MODEL TIMED SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T VARIED MUCH. THE SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 50N/160W WITH A WELL DEFINED TROUGH
SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT CAN ALREADY BE OBSERVED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR CHANNELS.
ITS THIS ENERGY THAT WE`LL BE TRACKING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORCAL.

THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTH BAY RAINS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY
EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST
NCEP MODELS BRING THE INITIAL RAIN BAND THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. RAIN TOTALS DON`T INITIALLY LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT A QUICK SHOT OF 0.10-0.20 IS ENOUGH TO WREAK
HAVOC ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.

COLD FRONTAL RAINS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS NON-DESCRIPT AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF PORTLAND
OREGON. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WARM ADVECTION OROGRAPHIC RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PVA AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS AS WELL AS 500 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -28 CELSIUS AND 700 MB
TEMPS TO AROUND -8 CELSIUS THAT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IDEAL CLOUD PHYSICS FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION ON
SATURDAY IN TYPICAL NW WIND POST-FRONTAL SET-UP.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
VALLEY FOG FORMATION GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND QUICKLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH
BY THE WEEKEND OF NOV 8TH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA FOR VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE HAZE REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO 5 MILES THROUGH 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:01 AM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR TODAY AS A RESULT OF A LOCALIZED
COASTAL JET. A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281559
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/240 AM

OUTER WATERS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WITH MORE DETAILS BY MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A GALE WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281559
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED REBUILD AND BRING
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TODAY. VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BEACH IN THE MID 70S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LIGHT
RAIN EVENT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MAY END UP INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ON THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...BUT ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

QUITE WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER AWAY TODAY.
A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF CLEAR SKIES.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AND THE EDDY REMAINS THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LA AND VTA COASTS.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD COASTAL COOLING ON THURSDAY ESP FOR SLO AND WESTERN
SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EYES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST REAL RAIN OF THE SEASON
DEVELOPS. A COLD 535DM UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH OREGON AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TROF WILL SWING TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THE SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SLO COUNTY COAST RIGHT AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY. THE MDLS
HAVE BEEN HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
NOW ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR SLO
COUNTY BUT IF THIS ROUND OF MDLS SOLNS IS CORRECT THE MORNING WILL
BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS BRING
THE SFC FRONT AND RAIN TO THE SLO AND MOST OF SBA COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN INITIAL FRONT PRETTY MUCH FIZZLES OUT AND SHOULD NOT BRING RAIN
TO VTA OR LA COUNTY. A POST FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AS USUAL THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES. ALL THE ACTION WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SLOPES.

ALMOST ALL OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS SO SNOW
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...EXCEPT SAT NIGHT WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET.

RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE NW CORNER OF SLO
COUNTY WHERE THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

THE CLOUDS...THE RAIN... AND THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALL CONSPIRE TO
REALLY DROP TEMPS. FRIDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY.

SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL BE WIPED OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0900Z

AT THIS TIME THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR MARINE INVERSION.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDS OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS NEAR COAST BETWEEN
12-16Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WEAK OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. LOCAL LLWS/TURBULENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN PASSES...STRONGEST BETWEEN 12Z-20Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z THIS MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/240 AM

OUTER WATERS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WITH MORE DETAILS BY MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A GALE WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE INNER WATERS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KSGX 281539
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
839 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLING WILL BEGIN
THURSDAY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. MORE EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE MARINE
LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENING. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA BRINGING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...SIGNIFICANT COOLING...A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW WARMING FOR SUNDAY WITH GREATER WARMING AND
INLAND DRYING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY
WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY 6.7 MB
OFFSHORE FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS...ONE AT THE SURFACE
AND ONE AT 2000 FEET. THE WEAK MARINE LAYER INVERSION...OFFSHORE
FLOW...AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES ALL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE LACK OF STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE A TAD STRONGER WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT STILL WEAK OVERALL. HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP KEEP STRATUS/FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SLOW RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...GRADUAL COOLING...AND LIKELY
INCREASINGLY BETTER AND DEEPER COVERAGE OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS/FOG.

06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GEM A LITTLE QUICKER.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND WETTER AT THE
MOMENT...AS IT INDICATES 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES...AND THE GEM
ONLY AROUND 0.01 INCHES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD OCCUR
WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MAYBE THE HIGH DESERTS. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND
GFS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND
6000-7000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING RATHER
STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES...THROUGH
PASSES/CANYONS...ALONG DESERT SLOPES AND INTO FAVORED ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO 10-15 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 20 DEGREES...BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS...IN ADDITION TO SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THAT TIME AS WELL. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY...AND KEEP ANY NIGHT AND
MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION...
281500Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING
BRISK WINDS AND STEEP WAVES TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT
PERIOD. WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






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