Home > Products > State Listing > California Data
Latest:
 AFDEKA |  AFDSTO |  AFDMTR |  AFDHNX |  AFDREV |  AFDLOX |  AFDSGX |  AFDPSR |
  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 291603
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Gradual cooling trend
through the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture from T.S. Marie spreading into Norcal as the storm itself
continues to head NWwd out to sea over the Pacific. The moisture has
worked its way Nwd on the W side of strong high pressure centered W
of Baja/Socal...and then turns Ewd around the Nrn periphery of the
anticyclone and the approaching Ern Pacific/W coast trof. Max temps
are expected to cool in our CWA today due to the synoptic cooling
from the approaching trof/weakening ridge and the increase in cloud
cover from Marie. An enhanced area of clouds is located along the
coast and should spread Ewd over the CWA today leading to some
thicker high cloud cover over the area at times.    JHM

.Previous Discussion...

Marine layer holding around 1500 ft in depth with stratus extending
inland into the western portion of the Carquinez Strait. Surface
pressure gradients are beginning to trend increasingly onshore.
Temperatures are running pretty similar to 24 hours ago and range
from the upper 40s in the colder mountain valleys to the lower 70s
at the north end of the Sacramento Valley.

Strong high pressure that`s been in place across the region will
begin to weaken today as a trough moves into the PacNW from the
Gulf of Alaska. For NorCal, the effects will be limited to
cooling, initially mainly in the Delta Breeze influenced regions
today, then spreading further inland Saturday as some synoptic
cooling from the trough develops.

Dry weather is expected into next week. High-level moisture from
the remnants of Marie will stream across NorCal today before being
shunted south by the approaching trough.

Temperatures will be near to a little above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours over interior northern California.
Variable high clouds at times. Winds this morning less than 15
knots except southwest 15 to 20 knots gusts to 30 knots through
the delta. Increased ridge winds 18z through 06z Saturday as upper
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest with southwest gusts to 25
knots higher elevations.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KSTO 291603
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Gradual cooling trend
through the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Moisture from T.S. Marie spreading into Norcal as the storm itself
continues to head NWwd out to sea over the Pacific. The moisture has
worked its way Nwd on the W side of strong high pressure centered W
of Baja/Socal...and then turns Ewd around the Nrn periphery of the
anticyclone and the approaching Ern Pacific/W coast trof. Max temps
are expected to cool in our CWA today due to the synoptic cooling
from the approaching trof/weakening ridge and the increase in cloud
cover from Marie. An enhanced area of clouds is located along the
coast and should spread Ewd over the CWA today leading to some
thicker high cloud cover over the area at times.    JHM

.Previous Discussion...

Marine layer holding around 1500 ft in depth with stratus extending
inland into the western portion of the Carquinez Strait. Surface
pressure gradients are beginning to trend increasingly onshore.
Temperatures are running pretty similar to 24 hours ago and range
from the upper 40s in the colder mountain valleys to the lower 70s
at the north end of the Sacramento Valley.

Strong high pressure that`s been in place across the region will
begin to weaken today as a trough moves into the PacNW from the
Gulf of Alaska. For NorCal, the effects will be limited to
cooling, initially mainly in the Delta Breeze influenced regions
today, then spreading further inland Saturday as some synoptic
cooling from the trough develops.

Dry weather is expected into next week. High-level moisture from
the remnants of Marie will stream across NorCal today before being
shunted south by the approaching trough.

Temperatures will be near to a little above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours over interior northern California.
Variable high clouds at times. Winds this morning less than 15
knots except southwest 15 to 20 knots gusts to 30 knots through
the delta. Increased ridge winds 18z through 06z Saturday as upper
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest with southwest gusts to 25
knots higher elevations.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 291226
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD BE PATCHY
AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 950 MB
ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY TUE...
AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST
W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1220Z.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVE. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD SCOUR OUT +/- 1
HOUR. BY THIS EVENING...LESS CONFIDENCE WITH TAF. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR VSBYS. ALSO CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF STRATUS IF IT DOES DEVELOP IS LOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN
05Z-10Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KPRB WILL SEE IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SAT
MORNING.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...GOOD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR OR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 13-16Z THIS
MORNING. AN EDDY SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WILL GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE UP TO
VENTURA COUNTY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NO CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSBA DUE
TO GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MIGHT DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CAVU CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA S
TO SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (OR FROM 200-215 DEGREES). THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291226
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD BE PATCHY
AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 950 MB
ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY TUE...
AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST
W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1220Z.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVE. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD SCOUR OUT +/- 1
HOUR. BY THIS EVENING...LESS CONFIDENCE WITH TAF. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR VSBYS. ALSO CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF STRATUS IF IT DOES DEVELOP IS LOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN
05Z-10Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KPRB WILL SEE IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SAT
MORNING.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...GOOD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR OR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 13-16Z THIS
MORNING. AN EDDY SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WILL GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE UP TO
VENTURA COUNTY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NO CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSBA DUE
TO GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MIGHT DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CAVU CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA S
TO SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (OR FROM 200-215 DEGREES). THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291226
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD BE PATCHY
AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 950 MB
ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY TUE...
AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST
W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1220Z.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVE. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD SCOUR OUT +/- 1
HOUR. BY THIS EVENING...LESS CONFIDENCE WITH TAF. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR VSBYS. ALSO CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF STRATUS IF IT DOES DEVELOP IS LOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN
05Z-10Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KPRB WILL SEE IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SAT
MORNING.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...GOOD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR OR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 13-16Z THIS
MORNING. AN EDDY SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WILL GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE UP TO
VENTURA COUNTY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NO CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSBA DUE
TO GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MIGHT DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CAVU CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA S
TO SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (OR FROM 200-215 DEGREES). THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 291226
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
520 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD BE PATCHY
AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 950 MB
ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY TUE...
AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST
W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1220Z.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVE. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD SCOUR OUT +/- 1
HOUR. BY THIS EVENING...LESS CONFIDENCE WITH TAF. 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OR MVFR VSBYS. ALSO CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF STRATUS IF IT DOES DEVELOP IS LOW. ANYWHERE BETWEEN
05Z-10Z. 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KPRB WILL SEE IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SAT
MORNING.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...GOOD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR OR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 13-16Z THIS
MORNING. AN EDDY SHOULD DEVELOP WHICH WILL GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND LA COUNTY COAST AND MOVE UP TO
VENTURA COUNTY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NO CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSBA DUE
TO GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 10Z.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z
TONIGHT. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS MIGHT DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CAVU CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA S
TO SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (OR FROM 200-215 DEGREES). THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...DB
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMTR 291201
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
FORMER HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT IN ADVANCE AND TOWARD OUR CWA.
THIS MORE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY
AND EVEN A BIT OF MUGGINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS COULD
KEEP A SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY PLUS A LITTLE COOLING ON
SATURDAY FOR FAR INLAND AREAS. A DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC.

THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION -- ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW, NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS EXTEND INTO THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. SQL SODAR SHOWS A SLOW
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER SO STRATUS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH 18Z IN THE SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS TO 20 KT
AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT 5-7
FOOT SWELLS WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD AND A SWELL DIRECTION OF
160-190 DEGREES. SWELL DIRECTION IS STARTING TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST WHILE SWELL HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. BY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST SWELL UP TO 4 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH SWELL
PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS. THIS WILL BRING LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS
ESPECIALLY IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 291201
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
FORMER HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT IN ADVANCE AND TOWARD OUR CWA.
THIS MORE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY
AND EVEN A BIT OF MUGGINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS COULD
KEEP A SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY PLUS A LITTLE COOLING ON
SATURDAY FOR FAR INLAND AREAS. A DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC.

THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION -- ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW, NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS EXTEND INTO THE
SFO AND MRY BAY AREA THIS MORNING. SQL SODAR SHOWS A SLOW
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER SO STRATUS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH 18Z IN THE SFO BAY AREA.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. WEST WINDS TO 20 KT
AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT 5-7
FOOT SWELLS WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD AND A SWELL DIRECTION OF
160-190 DEGREES. SWELL DIRECTION IS STARTING TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST WHILE SWELL HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. BY
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST SWELL UP TO 4 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH SWELL
PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS. THIS WILL BRING LARGER THAN NORMAL BREAKERS
ESPECIALLY IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 291121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD
PATCHY AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX
TEMPS MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT
950 MB ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY WED.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONT...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z.
WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 291121
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR INTO THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING GRADUAL COOLING TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE WIDESPREAD ON THE
CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM MONTEREY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
L.A. COUNTY BY SUNRISE. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY MID MORNING IN
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES TICK DOWN
SLIGHTLY...950 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE...SO EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE ON THU...WITH TEMPS IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN RISING WELL
INTO THE 90S TO A BIT ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ONSHORE GRADIENTS MAY KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY SHOULD STILL
HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.

N-S GRADIENTS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE MTNS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
AND THE ADJACENT S COAST...BUT THE WRF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE GRADIENTS...AND LATEST RUNS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SAT...FORCING
THE UPPER HIGH A BIT SOUTHWARD. THE WRF SHOWS AN EDDY CIRCULATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...AND SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY AS WELL.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...CLOUDS WOULD
PATCHY AT WORST IN THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SAT...AND IF THE 06Z WRF IS CORRECT...MAX
TEMPS MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE VLYS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT
NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION...AND N-S
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADVISORY LEVEL NW TO N
WINDS TO AREAS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA
YNEZ MTNS AND ADJACENT S COAST OF SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY VTU COUNTY...AND COULD COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT
950 MB ALL FALL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MON...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH ON WED. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONT TO DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DOWN A BIT EACH DAY MON THROUGH
WED...PROBABLY DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY WED.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER JUST W OF THE REGION ON THU...SO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONT...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1130Z.
WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM...

OUTER WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AROUND POINT
CONCEPTION TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND SOUTH AND WEST TO SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE PZZ670 WILL SEE NW WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST
WESTERN PORTIONS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH FOR ALL THE OUTER WATERS AS WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER WILL DEVELOP BRINING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
WESTERN SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...29/240 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. HIGHER SURF COULD AFFECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/330 AM.
GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 291120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE INTERESTING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS OVER AZ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS...DESPITE THE ONGOING DRYING...NEARLY MONSOONISH...
AND...IF MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR AUG THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.  INSTEAD...THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING WAS MINUS 2 C...SORT OF
LIKE THOSE SEEN AT HILO HAWAII DURING MID SUMMER...I.E. UNUSUALLY
WARM ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST AZ.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
500 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE AND PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE AIRMASS UNDER A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE 112 DEGREE F FORECAST AT YUMA TODAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO
ONE DEGREE SHY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY
MONSOONISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. PERIODS OF CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MORE USUAL TIMES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
WESTERLIES...AND THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE ONLY SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE DISTRICT. AS
SUCH...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STAY
SLIM TO NONE...WITH ONLY MODEST CHANCES BEGINNING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 291120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE INTERESTING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS OVER AZ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS...DESPITE THE ONGOING DRYING...NEARLY MONSOONISH...
AND...IF MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR AUG THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.  INSTEAD...THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING WAS MINUS 2 C...SORT OF
LIKE THOSE SEEN AT HILO HAWAII DURING MID SUMMER...I.E. UNUSUALLY
WARM ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST AZ.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
500 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE AND PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE AIRMASS UNDER A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE 112 DEGREE F FORECAST AT YUMA TODAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO
ONE DEGREE SHY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY
MONSOONISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. PERIODS OF CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MORE USUAL TIMES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
WESTERLIES...AND THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE COMPONENT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE ONLY SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE DISTRICT. AS
SUCH...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE TEENS
WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STAY
SLIM TO NONE...WITH ONLY MODEST CHANCES BEGINNING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO








000
FXUS66 KSTO 291115
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
415 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Gradual cooling trend
through the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Some high clouds beginning to move in from the Pacific early this
morning, otherwise clear skies. Marine layer holding around 1500
ft in depth with stratus extending inland into the western portion
of the Carquinez Strait. Surface pressure gradients are beginning
to trend increasingly onshore. Temperatures are running pretty
similar to 24 hours ago and range from the upper 40s in the colder
mountain valleys to the lower 70s at the north end of the
Sacramento Valley.

Strong high pressure that`s been in place across the region will
begin to weaken today as a trough moves into the PacNW from the
Gulf of Alaska. For NorCal, the effects will be limited to
cooling, initially mainly in the Delta Breeze influenced regions
today, then spreading further inland Saturday as some synoptic
cooling from the trough develops.

Dry weather is expected into next week. High-level moisture from
the remnants of Marie will stream across NorCal today before being
shunted south by the approaching trough.

Temperatures will be near to a little above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours over interior northern California.
Variable high clouds at times. Winds this morning less than 15
knots except southwest 15 to 20 knots gusts to 30 knots through
the delta. Increased ridge winds 18z through 06z Saturday as upper
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest with southwest gusts to 25
knots higher elevations.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 291115
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
415 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Gradual cooling trend
through the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Some high clouds beginning to move in from the Pacific early this
morning, otherwise clear skies. Marine layer holding around 1500
ft in depth with stratus extending inland into the western portion
of the Carquinez Strait. Surface pressure gradients are beginning
to trend increasingly onshore. Temperatures are running pretty
similar to 24 hours ago and range from the upper 40s in the colder
mountain valleys to the lower 70s at the north end of the
Sacramento Valley.

Strong high pressure that`s been in place across the region will
begin to weaken today as a trough moves into the PacNW from the
Gulf of Alaska. For NorCal, the effects will be limited to
cooling, initially mainly in the Delta Breeze influenced regions
today, then spreading further inland Saturday as some synoptic
cooling from the trough develops.

Dry weather is expected into next week. High-level moisture from
the remnants of Marie will stream across NorCal today before being
shunted south by the approaching trough.

Temperatures will be near to a little above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions next 24 hours over interior northern California.
Variable high clouds at times. Winds this morning less than 15
knots except southwest 15 to 20 knots gusts to 30 knots through
the delta. Increased ridge winds 18z through 06z Saturday as upper
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest with southwest gusts to 25
knots higher elevations.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 291017
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
317 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING SOME COOLING OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM INLAND. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS TO START OUT SEPTEMBER...BECOMING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM PDT...BUT MARINE STRATUS
WAS STREAMING SE WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINED
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND WERE BEGINNING
TO TREND ONSHORE TO THE HIGH DESERTS. THE GRADIENT WAS SUPPORTING
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT THROUGH AND BELOW THE
WINDIER DESERT PASSES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SAGS SE ACROSS THE PACNW AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND A COASTAL
EDDY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO RESTORE THE MARINE INFLUENCE...ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST NEXT
WEEK...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL OVER SOCAL AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SLIPS EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS NO SIGN OF A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER SOCAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HINTS AT SOME MOISTURE RETURN
IS THE ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST.

EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WEST OF THE MTNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE EDDY
DEVELOPS. CONTINUED WARM FAR INLAND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE
SUMMER NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
290900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING. A PATCH OR TWO OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL AIRPORTS. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BASES AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM. FOR
DETAILS...SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM













000
FXUS66 KSGX 291017
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
317 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING SOME COOLING OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM INLAND. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND A RETURN OF MARINE
CLOUDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS TO START OUT SEPTEMBER...BECOMING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM PDT...BUT MARINE STRATUS
WAS STREAMING SE WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINED
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND WERE BEGINNING
TO TREND ONSHORE TO THE HIGH DESERTS. THE GRADIENT WAS SUPPORTING
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT THROUGH AND BELOW THE
WINDIER DESERT PASSES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SAGS SE ACROSS THE PACNW AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND A COASTAL
EDDY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO RESTORE THE MARINE INFLUENCE...ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND. EVEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST NEXT
WEEK...HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL OVER SOCAL AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SLIPS EAST AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS NO SIGN OF A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER SOCAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HINTS AT SOME MOISTURE RETURN
IS THE ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST.

EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WEST OF THE MTNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE EDDY
DEVELOPS. CONTINUED WARM FAR INLAND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE
SUMMER NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
290900Z...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING. A PATCH OR TWO OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT COASTAL AIRPORTS. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BASES AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM. FOR
DETAILS...SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MM












000
FXUS65 KPSR 291009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
308 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE INTERESTING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS OVER AZ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS...DESPITE THE ONGOING DRYING...NEARLY MONSOONISH...
AND...IF MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR AUG THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.  INSTEAD...THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING WAS MINUS 2 C...SORT OF
LIKE THOSE SEEN AT HILO HAWAII DURING MID SUMMER...I.E. UNUSUALLY
WARM ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST AZ.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
500 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE AND PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE AIRMASS UNDER A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE 112 DEGREE F FORECAST AT YUMA TODAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO
ONE DEGREE SHY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY
MONSOONISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ













000
FXUS65 KPSR 291009
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
308 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE INTERESTING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS OVER AZ
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WAS...DESPITE THE ONGOING DRYING...NEARLY MONSOONISH...
AND...IF MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR AUG THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.  INSTEAD...THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE OBSERVED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING WAS MINUS 2 C...SORT OF
LIKE THOSE SEEN AT HILO HAWAII DURING MID SUMMER...I.E. UNUSUALLY
WARM ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST AZ.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
500 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...IN THE MINUS 4 DEGREE C RANGE AND PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE AIRMASS UNDER A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE SHOULD BE 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE 112 DEGREE F FORECAST AT YUMA TODAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO
ONE DEGREE SHY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WARMER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY
MONSOONISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE ON THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ












000
FXUS66 KMTR 291000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
FORMER HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT IN ADVANCE AND TOWARD OUR CWA.
THIS MORE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY
AND EVEN A BIT OF MUGGINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS COULD
KEEP A SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY PLUS A LITTLE COOLING ON
SATURDAY FOR FAR INLAND AREAS. A DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC.

THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION -- ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW, NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING INTO COASTAL VALLEYS AND EXPECTED TO REACH ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z-18Z FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z
FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291000
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR COASTAL AREAS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT
FORMER HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS AND LESS ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT IN ADVANCE AND TOWARD OUR CWA.
THIS MORE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY
AND EVEN A BIT OF MUGGINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS COULD
KEEP A SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER
80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY PLUS A LITTLE COOLING ON
SATURDAY FOR FAR INLAND AREAS. A DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE LONGWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC.

THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION -- ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

RIGHT NOW, NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING INTO COASTAL VALLEYS AND EXPECTED TO REACH ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z-18Z FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z
FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 290944
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
244 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE DAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND RECEDE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROPOGATION OF A WEAK PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PASS AREAS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND DESERT FLOOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING
AN UPWARD TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL AGAIN SLIP THROUGH THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 29 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887

KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ANDERSEN
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 290931
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE WILL STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 500 MB WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT WITH STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT VIRGA IS LIKELY AND SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MARIE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
FROM I-80 NORTHWARD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NEVADA
DESERTS WILL ALSO RAISE POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST, POSSIBLY LOWERING
VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOSES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY IS THAT A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LIMITING THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AREA LAKES TO BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. JCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A
LITTLE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMER WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BLOCKING RIDGE TRIES TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE OF WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOON

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD. SCT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
BLDU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING
MAN. LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CS/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 290931
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE WILL STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 500 MB WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT WITH STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT VIRGA IS LIKELY AND SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MARIE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
FROM I-80 NORTHWARD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NEVADA
DESERTS WILL ALSO RAISE POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST, POSSIBLY LOWERING
VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOSES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY IS THAT A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LIMITING THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AREA LAKES TO BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. JCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A
LITTLE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMER WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BLOCKING RIDGE TRIES TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE OF WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOON

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD. SCT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
BLDU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING
MAN. LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CS/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 290931
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE WILL STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 500 MB WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT WITH STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT VIRGA IS LIKELY AND SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MARIE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
FROM I-80 NORTHWARD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NEVADA
DESERTS WILL ALSO RAISE POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST, POSSIBLY LOWERING
VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOSES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY IS THAT A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LIMITING THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AREA LAKES TO BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. JCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A
LITTLE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMER WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BLOCKING RIDGE TRIES TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE OF WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOON

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD. SCT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
BLDU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING
MAN. LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CS/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 290931
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE WILL STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 500 MB WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT WITH STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT VIRGA IS LIKELY AND SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MARIE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
FROM I-80 NORTHWARD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NEVADA
DESERTS WILL ALSO RAISE POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST, POSSIBLY LOWERING
VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOSES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY IS THAT A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LIMITING THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AREA LAKES TO BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. JCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A
LITTLE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMER WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BLOCKING RIDGE TRIES TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE OF WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOON

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD. SCT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
BLDU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING
MAN. LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CS/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 290931
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST MORNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING
TO BE PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH HAS ENTRAINED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE WHICH WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STABLE LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY RESTRICTING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND POSSIBLY MENDOCINO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTENT ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH RIDGING STILL IN PLACE.

THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND ALLOW THE COASTAL CLOUDS TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CLOUD COVER INTO
MOST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND WESTERN
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BUT GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH VALLEY CLOUDS MIXING OUT IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER MIXING HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO COMPACT AS THE
MARINE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. THUS OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE AS FAR INLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NOSES OVER THE WEST COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WITH BETTER
CLEARING POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...HIGHS MAY JUMP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID-60S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING DOWN THE WEST
COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES MAY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK.
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT FRIDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS OCCURRING ACROSS SOME COASTAL AREAS. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN INLAND THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MORE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS.  THEREFORE THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PDT
     SATURDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA







000
FXUS66 KEKA 290931
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST MORNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING
TO BE PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH HAS ENTRAINED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE WHICH WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STABLE LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY RESTRICTING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND POSSIBLY MENDOCINO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTENT ONCE AGAIN TODAY
WITH RIDGING STILL IN PLACE.

THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND ALLOW THE COASTAL CLOUDS TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CLOUD COVER INTO
MOST OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND WESTERN
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BUT GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH VALLEY CLOUDS MIXING OUT IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER MIXING HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO COMPACT AS THE
MARINE INVERSION STRENGTHENS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. THUS OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE AS FAR INLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NOSES OVER THE WEST COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WITH BETTER
CLEARING POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...HIGHS MAY JUMP A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID-60S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING DOWN THE WEST
COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES MAY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK.
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT FRIDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS OCCURRING ACROSS SOME COASTAL AREAS. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC
AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COMBINED WITH AN INLAND THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MORE ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS.  THEREFORE THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PDT
     SATURDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 290538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT WATSONVILLE AIRPORT, MONTEREY, SALINAS AND
HALF MOON BAY AIRPORTS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 2000
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIGHTLY ONSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENTRAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER TOMORROW
AND IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MUGGY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD SO NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES
-- 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PDT THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING INTO COASTAL VALLEYS AND EXPECTED TO REACH ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z-18Z FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z
FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND 17Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 290528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND A WEAK TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. IT IS KIND OF A MIXED BAG. THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS
THIS EVENING INDICATE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMBING AND
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...HOWEVER...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
FRIDAY. WITH 00Z MODELS INITIALIZING 950 MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
CELSIUS TOO COOL AND 03Z 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVING A COOL
BIAS...THE PACKAGE KEEPS A WARM FORECAST FOR THE AREA DESPITE MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES COOLING THE AIR MASS. THE ONLY WILD CARD WILL BE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM MARIE FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST CHANGES ADDRESSING THE IMPENDING
SUNDOWNER WINDS EVENTS FOR LATE WEEK.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO -3.5 MB AND
MARGINALLY SIT ON THE THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SANTA
BARBARA SUNDOWNER WINDS. THE EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DO
LOOK A TAD STRONGER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL 4-KM WRF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 80S OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPDATED TO
BRING THEM AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM EVENINGS SHOULD
EXPECTED AND COMMON ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING...MAINLY
TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING
BUT BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

LONG TERM...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
TROF LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRI. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRI EVENING...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR KSBA.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 PM.

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER
40 FEET IN AN AREA BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...28/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST EVENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL EVENT HAS DEVELOPED
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAINLY WEST OF GOLETA.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF
THE FOOTHILLS. WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
GENERALLY SEE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS EACH EVENING...HOWEVER...DURATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 290528 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND A WEAK TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. IT IS KIND OF A MIXED BAG. THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS
THIS EVENING INDICATE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMBING AND
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...HOWEVER...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
FRIDAY. WITH 00Z MODELS INITIALIZING 950 MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
CELSIUS TOO COOL AND 03Z 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVING A COOL
BIAS...THE PACKAGE KEEPS A WARM FORECAST FOR THE AREA DESPITE MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES COOLING THE AIR MASS. THE ONLY WILD CARD WILL BE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM MARIE FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST CHANGES ADDRESSING THE IMPENDING
SUNDOWNER WINDS EVENTS FOR LATE WEEK.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO -3.5 MB AND
MARGINALLY SIT ON THE THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SANTA
BARBARA SUNDOWNER WINDS. THE EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DO
LOOK A TAD STRONGER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL 4-KM WRF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 80S OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPDATED TO
BRING THEM AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM EVENINGS SHOULD
EXPECTED AND COMMON ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING...MAINLY
TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING
BUT BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

LONG TERM...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
TROF LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0530Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRI. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN FRI EVENING...WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR KSBA.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 PM.

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER
40 FEET IN AN AREA BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...28/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST EVENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL EVENT HAS DEVELOPED
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAINLY WEST OF GOLETA.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF
THE FOOTHILLS. WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
GENERALLY SEE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS EACH EVENING...HOWEVER...DURATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













000
FXUS66 KSTO 290503
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1003 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...

Upper high is firmly in place over California. This is providing
dry and warm conditions. Only a weak delta breeze this evening
with temperatures slower to cool. Current forecast is on track and
no evening update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A stronger Delta breeze is also expected tonight
into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 290503
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1003 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...

Upper high is firmly in place over California. This is providing
dry and warm conditions. Only a weak delta breeze this evening
with temperatures slower to cool. Current forecast is on track and
no evening update will be needed.

.Previous Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A stronger Delta breeze is also expected tonight
into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSGX 290412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS A VERY HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING SIGNS THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS BEING NOTED NEAR
THE COAST WITH THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWING A BIT OF A
STRONGER MARINE INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. COASTAL OBS
SITES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY. MEANWHILE WILL LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE JUST AS HOT AS TODAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR SO HOTTER. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW FOR INLAND AREAS TO BUMP THEM UP A NOTCH TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT
THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
290330Z...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF
SCT-BKN008-012 FORMING NEAR THE COAST BTWN 10-15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA FRIDAY.
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUE
TO DECREASE. AT 8 PM THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY REPORTED 7 FEET AT
11 SECONDS...DOWN FROM 9 FEET AT 12 SECONDS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FRIDAY. NO MARINE
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS WEAKENING AND WILL BECOME
SUBTROPICAL OVERNIGHT. ITS SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH SURF AT THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET WITH
SETS TO 10 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8
FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF TONIGHT WITH SETS
TO 7 FEET ON THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF WILL DECREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 290412
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS A VERY HOT DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING SIGNS THAT THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS BEING NOTED NEAR
THE COAST WITH THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWING A BIT OF A
STRONGER MARINE INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. COASTAL OBS
SITES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY. MEANWHILE WILL LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE JUST AS HOT AS TODAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR SO HOTTER. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW FOR INLAND AREAS TO BUMP THEM UP A NOTCH TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT
THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
290330Z...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 08Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF
SCT-BKN008-012 FORMING NEAR THE COAST BTWN 10-15Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA FRIDAY.
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUE
TO DECREASE. AT 8 PM THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY REPORTED 7 FEET AT
11 SECONDS...DOWN FROM 9 FEET AT 12 SECONDS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FRIDAY. NO MARINE
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS WEAKENING AND WILL BECOME
SUBTROPICAL OVERNIGHT. ITS SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH SURF AT THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET WITH
SETS TO 10 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8
FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF TONIGHT WITH SETS
TO 7 FEET ON THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF WILL DECREASE
TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND A WEAK TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. IT IS KIND OF A MIXED BAG. THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS
THIS EVENING INDICATE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMBING AND
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...HOWEVER...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
FRIDAY. WITH 00Z MODELS INITIALIZING 950 MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
CELSIUS TOO COOL AND 03Z 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVING A COOL
BIAS...THE PACKAGE KEEPS A WARM FORECAST FOR THE AREA DESPITE MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES COOLING THE AIR MASS. THE ONLY WILD CARD WILL BE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM MARIE FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST CHANGES ADDRESSING THE IMPENDING
SUNDOWNER WINDS EVENTS FOR LATE WEEK.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO -3.5 MB AND
MARGINALLY SIT ON THE THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SANTA
BARBARA SUNDOWNER WINDS. THE EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DO
LOOK A TAD STRONGER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL 4-KM WRF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 80S OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPDATED TO
BRING THEM AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM EVENINGS SHOULD
EXPECTED AND COMMON ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING...MAINLY
TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING
BUT BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

LONG TERM...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
TROF LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 PM.

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER
40 FEET IN AN AREA BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...28/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST EVENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL EVENT HAS DEVELOPED
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAINLY WEST OF GOLETA.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF
THE FOOTHILLS. WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
GENERALLY SEE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS EACH EVENING...HOWEVER...DURATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 290410
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND A WEAK TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. IT IS KIND OF A MIXED BAG. THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS
THIS EVENING INDICATE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMBING AND
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...HOWEVER...950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
FRIDAY. WITH 00Z MODELS INITIALIZING 950 MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
CELSIUS TOO COOL AND 03Z 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVING A COOL
BIAS...THE PACKAGE KEEPS A WARM FORECAST FOR THE AREA DESPITE MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES COOLING THE AIR MASS. THE ONLY WILD CARD WILL BE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM MARIE FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED TO THE PACKAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST CHANGES ADDRESSING THE IMPENDING
SUNDOWNER WINDS EVENTS FOR LATE WEEK.

KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO -3.5 MB AND
MARGINALLY SIT ON THE THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SANTA
BARBARA SUNDOWNER WINDS. THE EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DO
LOOK A TAD STRONGER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMED
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST
AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCAL 4-KM WRF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 80S OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPDATED TO
BRING THEM AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM EVENINGS SHOULD
EXPECTED AND COMMON ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING...MAINLY
TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING
BUT BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLEARING TO
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

LONG TERM...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
TROF LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 PM.

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER
40 FEET IN AN AREA BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...28/900 PM.

GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PASSES
AND CANYONS OF SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST EVENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL EVENT HAS DEVELOPED
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAINLY WEST OF GOLETA.
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF
THE FOOTHILLS. WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
GENERALLY SEE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
EVENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST AND FOOTHILLS EACH EVENING...HOWEVER...DURATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL
FIRE WEATHER...HALL
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS65 KPSR 290341
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE WARMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REACHING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 110 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MODEST COOLING...TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PHOENIX KPSR SOUNDING AT 00Z SHOWED A DRY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PROFILE AND ONLY .82 OF PWAT...A
DECREASE OF JUST OVER A QUARTER INCH FROM THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ATM ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING...THOUGH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOWS
SHOULD COME IN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
READINGS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO COAST MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN.
EXPECT EVEN LESS CLOUDINESS TOMORROW WITH EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ADVERTISE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO
BREAK OFF OVER SONORA AND SETTLE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS.
LATEST NAM INDICATES SOME CAPE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE SREF GOES SO FAR AS
TO DEPICT MODEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA. THIS LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
A LITTLE BIT MORE...GETTING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS AROUND 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A BIT LESS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT IT
WILL BE MOOT GETTING NULLIFIED BY THE CIN. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A
BIT AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY BY GFS AND
ECMWF...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY BE A
BIT BETTER OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE STEERING FLOW...ACCORDING TO ECMWF BUT LESS SO GFS AS THEY
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE CENTER RESIDES.
HELD ON TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY DECLINE IN THE MOISTURE. AS TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH RETROGRADES...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW PATTERN FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THEY DEFINITELY DISAGREE ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ECMWF QUITE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. HELD ON TO
THE FLATLINE TREND IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LACK OF CLEAR CUT
AGREEMENT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH FORECASTS FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290341
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE WARMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REACHING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 110 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MODEST COOLING...TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PHOENIX KPSR SOUNDING AT 00Z SHOWED A DRY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PROFILE AND ONLY .82 OF PWAT...A
DECREASE OF JUST OVER A QUARTER INCH FROM THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ATM ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING...THOUGH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOWS
SHOULD COME IN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
READINGS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO COAST MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN.
EXPECT EVEN LESS CLOUDINESS TOMORROW WITH EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ADVERTISE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO
BREAK OFF OVER SONORA AND SETTLE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS.
LATEST NAM INDICATES SOME CAPE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE SREF GOES SO FAR AS
TO DEPICT MODEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA. THIS LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
A LITTLE BIT MORE...GETTING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS AROUND 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A BIT LESS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT IT
WILL BE MOOT GETTING NULLIFIED BY THE CIN. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A
BIT AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY BY GFS AND
ECMWF...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY BE A
BIT BETTER OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE STEERING FLOW...ACCORDING TO ECMWF BUT LESS SO GFS AS THEY
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE CENTER RESIDES.
HELD ON TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY DECLINE IN THE MOISTURE. AS TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH RETROGRADES...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW PATTERN FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THEY DEFINITELY DISAGREE ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ECMWF QUITE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. HELD ON TO
THE FLATLINE TREND IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LACK OF CLEAR CUT
AGREEMENT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH FORECASTS FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290341
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE WARMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REACHING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 110 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MODEST COOLING...TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PHOENIX KPSR SOUNDING AT 00Z SHOWED A DRY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PROFILE AND ONLY .82 OF PWAT...A
DECREASE OF JUST OVER A QUARTER INCH FROM THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ATM ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING...THOUGH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOWS
SHOULD COME IN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
READINGS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO COAST MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN.
EXPECT EVEN LESS CLOUDINESS TOMORROW WITH EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ADVERTISE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO
BREAK OFF OVER SONORA AND SETTLE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS.
LATEST NAM INDICATES SOME CAPE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE SREF GOES SO FAR AS
TO DEPICT MODEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA. THIS LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
A LITTLE BIT MORE...GETTING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS AROUND 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A BIT LESS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT IT
WILL BE MOOT GETTING NULLIFIED BY THE CIN. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A
BIT AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY BY GFS AND
ECMWF...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY BE A
BIT BETTER OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE STEERING FLOW...ACCORDING TO ECMWF BUT LESS SO GFS AS THEY
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE CENTER RESIDES.
HELD ON TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY DECLINE IN THE MOISTURE. AS TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH RETROGRADES...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW PATTERN FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THEY DEFINITELY DISAGREE ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ECMWF QUITE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. HELD ON TO
THE FLATLINE TREND IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LACK OF CLEAR CUT
AGREEMENT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH FORECASTS FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290341
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
841 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE WARMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REACHING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 110 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MODEST COOLING...TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PHOENIX KPSR SOUNDING AT 00Z SHOWED A DRY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PROFILE AND ONLY .82 OF PWAT...A
DECREASE OF JUST OVER A QUARTER INCH FROM THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ATM ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY
WERE THIS TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING...THOUGH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOWS
SHOULD COME IN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
READINGS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO COAST MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN.
EXPECT EVEN LESS CLOUDINESS TOMORROW WITH EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ADVERTISE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO
BREAK OFF OVER SONORA AND SETTLE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS.
LATEST NAM INDICATES SOME CAPE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE SREF GOES SO FAR AS
TO DEPICT MODEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA. THIS LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
A LITTLE BIT MORE...GETTING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS AROUND 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A BIT LESS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT IT
WILL BE MOOT GETTING NULLIFIED BY THE CIN. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A
BIT AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY BY GFS AND
ECMWF...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY BE A
BIT BETTER OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE STEERING FLOW...ACCORDING TO ECMWF BUT LESS SO GFS AS THEY
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE CENTER RESIDES.
HELD ON TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY DECLINE IN THE MOISTURE. AS TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH RETROGRADES...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW PATTERN FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THEY DEFINITELY DISAGREE ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ECMWF QUITE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. HELD ON TO
THE FLATLINE TREND IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LACK OF CLEAR CUT
AGREEMENT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH FORECASTS FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KIWA AND KPHX AROUND 06 TO 08Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS66 KMTR 290327
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
827 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT WATSONVILLE AIRPORT, MONTEREY, SALINAS AND
HALFMOON BAY AIRPORTS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 2000
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIGHTLY ONSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENTRAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER TOMORROW
AND IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MUGGY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD SO NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES
-- 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290327
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
827 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT WATSONVILLE AIRPORT, MONTEREY, SALINAS AND
HALFMOON BAY AIRPORTS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 2000
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIGHTLY ONSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENTRAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER TOMORROW
AND IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MUGGY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD SO NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES
-- 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290327
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
827 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT WATSONVILLE AIRPORT, MONTEREY, SALINAS AND
HALFMOON BAY AIRPORTS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 2000
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIGHTLY ONSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENTRAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER TOMORROW
AND IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MUGGY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD SO NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES
-- 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290327
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
827 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED AT WATSONVILLE AIRPORT, MONTEREY, SALINAS AND
HALFMOON BAY AIRPORTS. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A SOLID 2000
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
LIGHTLY ONSHORE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE
INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ENTRAINED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN ANY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER TOMORROW
AND IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MUGGY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD SO NO UP DATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION
LOOKS LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES
-- 60S TO MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 290110 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
610 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOCAL COAST
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RH
PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING
OFF BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 29 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290110 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
610 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOCAL COAST
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RH
PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING
OFF BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 29 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290110 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
610 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOCAL COAST
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RH
PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING
OFF BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 29 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290110 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
610 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOCAL COAST
PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RH
PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN
CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING
OFF BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY AUGUST 29 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 290043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 290043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
543 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0043Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z. THEN...VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PERIODS OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED AT KSBA BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...THEN THERE
IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 282355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 282331 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NO UPDATES TO THE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST ATTM. PLEASE SEE
BEACH SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES.

HERE IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 136 PM):

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 770 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL 28/1200 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. 28/1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION...MAINTAINING DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...UPDATED
415 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO 12 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET
WITH SETS TO 8 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8 FEET THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF
WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE










000
FXUS66 KSGX 282331 CCA
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NO UPDATES TO THE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST ATTM. PLEASE SEE
BEACH SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES.

HERE IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 136 PM):

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 770 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL 28/1200 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. 28/1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION...MAINTAINING DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...UPDATED
415 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO 12 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET
WITH SETS TO 8 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8 FEET THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF
WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE











000
FXUS66 KSGX 282325
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NO UPDATES TO THE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST ATTM. PLEASE
SEE BEACH SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...UPDATED
415 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO 12 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET
WITH SETS TO 8 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8 FEET THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF
WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 282325
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
425 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW...A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NO UPDATES TO THE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST ATTM. PLEASE
SEE BEACH SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.BEACHES...UPDATED
415 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
FADE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES. SURF THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO 12 FEET...THEN LOWER FRIDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET
WITH SETS TO 8 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.

SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8 FEET THE BEACHES NORTH OF OCEANSIDE. THE SURF
WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 8 PM FRIDAY.

SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282249
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
349 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A somewhat stronger Delta breeze is also
expected tonight into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282249
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
349 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A somewhat stronger Delta breeze is also
expected tonight into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282249
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
349 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A somewhat stronger Delta breeze is also
expected tonight into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282249
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
349 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, generally light winds and
above normal temperatures. Today continues to be on track to be the
warmest day we will see for the next week or so. Temperatures are
currently warmer across the forecast area by 2 to 8 degrees and highs
this afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern
Sacramento Valley should see some triple digits, with Chico 99
degrees at 3 pm, 98 at Redding and at Red Bluff.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial but rather dry trough passing through to the north
tomorrow and Saturday. This will bring cooler temperatures for the
end of the week. A somewhat stronger Delta breeze is also
expected tonight into early Friday.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Ex-hurricane Marie
continues to weaken and move out into the Pacific. The only
affects for the forecast area should be some increased clouds on
Friday, drawn in by easterly flow as the upper trough tracks
through the region.

Dry northwest flow continues through the Labor day weekend. High
temperatures will be near to a little above normal. EK

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into early
Tuesday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday,
tracking across the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing aloft deepens,
resulting in some cooling with increased onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Incrg Wly flow alf as upr rdg movs E and upr trof in EPAC apchs.
VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with incrg mid to high lvl
clds fm T.S. Marie ovngt into Fri. Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25
kts poss ovr hyr trrn this aftn into eve and thru Delta tngt.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 282245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
345 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REASSERT THEMSELVES
ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRETCHING
SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NW CALIFORNIA. THIS CAUSED SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
ATTEMPTING TO REASSERT ITS DOMINANCE BY NOSING BACK NORTHWARD, BUT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS BATTLING FOR THE
SAME POSITION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WINNING
OUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT LEAVE QUIETLY. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES SUPPRESS THE
MARINE LAYER DOWN TO THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET. BY FRIDAY THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP THROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DEEPER
PENETRATION OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE, THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH MORE THAN BRING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO THE INTERIOR. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL TRANSIT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SLIPS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD BRING US ANY THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
ARE GUSTY RIDGELINE WINDS AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FORECAST-WISE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO ADD DRIZZLE
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST UNDER A TIGHTLY BOUND MARINE LAYER. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AIRFIELD CONDITIONS TODAY WERE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH MUCH OF THE COAST INUNDATED WITH STRATUS AND
INTERMITTENT CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ANY
SCATTERED AREAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES (IFR TO LIFR) TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AS RIDGING
MAINTAINS A STRONGER MARINE INVERSION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWED SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU TO DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TODAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SOME AIRFIELDS NEAR SISKIYOU FIRES MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND TURN N TO NE. RPAKML


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA INTERACT AND STRENGTHEN THE COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE 20Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE SO THE ADVISORIES
WERE POSTPONED UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS MAY
PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS. A BRIEF DECREASE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS YET WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, STRONG RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ORIGINATING
FROM NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY DECREASING THE THREAT OF STRONGER CURRENTS. RPAKML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282245
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
345 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REASSERT THEMSELVES
ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRETCHING
SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NW CALIFORNIA. THIS CAUSED SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
ATTEMPTING TO REASSERT ITS DOMINANCE BY NOSING BACK NORTHWARD, BUT
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS BATTLING FOR THE
SAME POSITION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WINNING
OUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT LEAVE QUIETLY. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES SUPPRESS THE
MARINE LAYER DOWN TO THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET. BY FRIDAY THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP THROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE A DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DEEPER
PENETRATION OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS TO THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE, THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH MORE THAN BRING
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO THE INTERIOR. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER RIDGE WILL TRANSIT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SLIPS INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD BRING US ANY THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
ARE GUSTY RIDGELINE WINDS AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FORECAST-WISE
CONTINUED WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO ADD DRIZZLE
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST UNDER A TIGHTLY BOUND MARINE LAYER. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AIRFIELD CONDITIONS TODAY WERE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH MUCH OF THE COAST INUNDATED WITH STRATUS AND
INTERMITTENT CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO ANY
SCATTERED AREAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES (IFR TO LIFR) TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AS RIDGING
MAINTAINS A STRONGER MARINE INVERSION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWED SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU TO DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TODAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SOME AIRFIELDS NEAR SISKIYOU FIRES MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND TURN N TO NE. RPAKML


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA INTERACT AND STRENGTHEN THE COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE 20Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE SO THE ADVISORIES
WERE POSTPONED UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, STEEP SEAS MAY
PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS. A BRIEF DECREASE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS YET WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, STRONG RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ORIGINATING
FROM NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY DECREASING THE THREAT OF STRONGER CURRENTS. RPAKML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
     SATURDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE SOCAL COAST PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
RH PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN CONTROL
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. A MODEST WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW
THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 282222
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG (~594DM) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF
THE SOCAL COAST PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMER HURRICANE...NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY BUT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WILL WRAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
RH PROGS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB...SO JUST
EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL WITH A COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING WILL REGAIN CONTROL
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PACNW AND NORCAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON FRIDAY THEN COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. A MODEST WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LEVELING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW
THE COASTAL PASSES AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE DESERT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND KSFO AND KOAK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM KOAK WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO
AND KOAK.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 02Z.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282154
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
254 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND KSFO AND KOAK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM KOAK WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO
AND KOAK.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 02Z.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 282153
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANTICIPATE A BIT MORE WARMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REACHING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 110 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MODEST COOLING...TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS RETURNING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA MEXICO COAST MAKES ITS PRESENCE KNOWN.
EXPECT EVEN LESS CLOUDINESS TOMORROW WITH EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODELS ADVERTISE A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO
BREAK OFF OVER SONORA AND SETTLE BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS.
LATEST NAM INDICATES SOME CAPE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE SREF GOES SO FAR AS
TO DEPICT MODEST QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA. THIS LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTLIER AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
A LITTLE BIT MORE...GETTING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS AROUND 110 FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...A BIT LESS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEPING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT IT
WILL BE MOOT GETTING NULLIFIED BY THE CIN. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A
BIT AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY BY GFS AND
ECMWF...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ADVECT STORMS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY BE A
BIT BETTER OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE STEERING FLOW...ACCORDING TO ECMWF BUT LESS SO GFS AS THEY
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE CENTER RESIDES.
HELD ON TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY DECLINE IN THE MOISTURE. AS TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH RETROGRADES...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW PATTERN FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THEY DEFINITELY DISAGREE ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ECMWF QUITE A BIT MORE GENEROUS. HELD ON TO
THE FLATLINE TREND IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LACK OF CLEAR CUT
AGREEMENT AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH FORECASTS FURTHER
OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
DIRECTIONS WITH STRONGER NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT FAVORING DRAINAGE
PATTERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM MEXICO SEEPS
NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERNS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KREV 282109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW CUMULUS IS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
AREA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

BY FRIDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND
WILL ACT TO INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS BUT WILL NOT OFFER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. MAIN CORE OF THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OVER
OREGON WHICH WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS. ENHANCED SURFACE
PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80 WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND THE COMBINATION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED AREAS OF SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS LAKES BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AND
JET LEVEL WINDS DIP FURTHER SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON SUNDAY A
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LEAVES A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, YIELDING THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUBTLE
RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. NEGLIGIBLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY
WEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THINGS MAY GET MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV BUT
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROF AND JET STREAM
WILL GET THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW IN TERMS OF WINDS LATE
WEEK. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY SIGNALS FOR PRECIP EITHER AS MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION IN AZ. CS


.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE. LIGHT AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR
RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND
BURNING MAN AIR FIELD. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 6Z/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND - GUSTY
WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. CS


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 282109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW CUMULUS IS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
AREA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

BY FRIDAY, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND
WILL ACT TO INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS BUT WILL NOT OFFER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. MAIN CORE OF THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OVER
OREGON WHICH WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS. ENHANCED SURFACE
PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80 WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND THE COMBINATION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED AREAS OF SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS LAKES BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AND
JET LEVEL WINDS DIP FURTHER SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A FEW DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON SUNDAY A
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH LEAVES A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, YIELDING THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUBTLE
RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. NEGLIGIBLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY
WEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THINGS MAY GET MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV BUT
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROF AND JET STREAM
WILL GET THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW IN TERMS OF WINDS LATE
WEEK. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY SIGNALS FOR PRECIP EITHER AS MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION IN AZ. CS


.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUE. LIGHT AFTERNOON/EVENING WESTERLIES TODAY. WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR
RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND
BURNING MAN AIR FIELD. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION AFTER 6Z/FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND - GUSTY
WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. CS


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KSGX 282036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 770 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL 28/1200 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. 28/1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION...MAINTAINING DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. SURF OF 6 TO 8
FEET WITH SETS TO 10 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ORANGE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH SURF OF 4 TO
7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF WITH OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8
FEET FOR OCEANSIDE AND BEACHES NORTH TODAY...DECREASING FURTHER ON
FRIDAY. THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 282036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
136 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG FAVORED
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK WILL CREATE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER
WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 770 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME MARINE LAYER STRATUS PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL 28/1200 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST. 28/1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION...MAINTAINING DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE LAYER STRATUS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL AREAS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. WITH AN INVERSION VERY CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE...THE STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW...400-800 FT MSL...WITH AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR...LOCALLY
LOWER IN FOG FOR HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUD CIGS AT KSNA ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LESS LIKELY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD HEIGHT
AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 7 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. SURF OF 6 TO 8
FEET WITH SETS TO 10 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ORANGE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH SURF OF 4 TO
7 FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL SEE 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF WITH OCCASIONAL SETS TO 8
FEET FOR OCEANSIDE AND BEACHES NORTH TODAY...DECREASING FURTHER ON
FRIDAY. THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS








000
FXUS66 KLOX 282006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTH AFTER 29/14Z. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH THE BASE
APPROXIMATELY 1.2KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO .1KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD MAY BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE BIGHT AND THE
INVERSION BASE MAY DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 30/02Z AND AFTER 30/19Z OTHERWISE A WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY EXIST AFTER 30/02Z.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN 29/13-29/17Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 282006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTH AFTER 29/14Z. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH THE BASE
APPROXIMATELY 1.2KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO .1KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD MAY BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE BIGHT AND THE
INVERSION BASE MAY DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 30/02Z AND AFTER 30/19Z OTHERWISE A WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY EXIST AFTER 30/02Z.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN 29/13-29/17Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND KSFO AND KOAK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM KOAK WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO
AND KOAK.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 02Z.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS AFTER
02Z THIS EVENING AND ACROSS BAY AREA TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND KSFO AND KOAK.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM KOAK WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF KSFO
AND KOAK.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 02Z.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS65 KREV 281744
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1044 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME MODEST SURFACE AND MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. FUENTES

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 281744
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1044 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME MODEST SURFACE AND MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. FUENTES

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 281744
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1044 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME MODEST SURFACE AND MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. FUENTES

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 281744
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1044 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME MODEST SURFACE AND MID-
LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SAME REGION AS
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. FUENTES

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281732
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1031 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...PRETTY WARM PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SBA
AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS, INCLUDING TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAKING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. PROBABLY JUST SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN CANYONS AND
PASSES LIKE GAVIOTA. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THE
NEXT TWO EVENINGS. WARM EVENING TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SBA
S COAST.

INCREASING NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION FRI AND SAT WHICH LIKELY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO SRN LA COUNTY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING AND
MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING. BEACH AREAS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS A RESULT SAT, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTH AFTER 29/14Z. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH THE BASE
APPROXIMATELY 1.2KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO .1KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD MAY BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE BIGHT AND THE
INVERSION BASE MAY DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 30/02Z AND AFTER 30/19Z OTHERWISE A WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY EXIST AFTER 30/02Z.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN 29/13-29/17Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURSDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN ARE
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KSGX 281634
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
934 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALONG THE COLUMN...WITH A CALCULATED 1.01 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED
BY A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL. DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ELIMINATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
281515Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 8 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO
10 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TODAY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 FEET GENERALLY, WITH OCCASIONAL SETS
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE FOR OCEANSIDE AND BEACHES NORTH. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND
SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







000
FXUS66 KSGX 281634
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
934 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BEACHES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AROUND 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THE 28/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALONG THE COLUMN...WITH A CALCULATED 1.01 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
INCREASES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
IS FORECASTING A WEAK COASTAL EDDY TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD HELP REESTABLISH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED
BY A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL. DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ELIMINATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
281515Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY IS DOWN TO AROUND 8 FEET.
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY. NO
MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH SETS TO
10 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...FOR ORANGE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TODAY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 FEET GENERALLY, WITH OCCASIONAL SETS
TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE FOR OCEANSIDE AND BEACHES NORTH. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND
SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 281630
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AROUND ARIZONA AND VEF SHOW DRYING AND WARMING ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR
AND BELOW 600 MB. AS THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES IT WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO FORM ANYWHERE OVER
ARIZONA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AND RATHER
LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA TODAY. SOME CU
ALREADY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THERE. 12Z NAM EVEN DEPICTS
PATCHES OF CAPE NIBBLING AT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. NAM DID A BETTER
JOB OF INITIALIZING MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...AS WELL AS LOCAL HI RES
MODELS FROM 06Z. THUS IT MAY NOT BE OUT TO LUNCH BUT IT ALSO DEPICTS
LARGE AMOUNTS OF CIN. SO...KEEPING THINGS DRY TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 218 AM...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281630
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AROUND ARIZONA AND VEF SHOW DRYING AND WARMING ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS DUE TO A NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR
AND BELOW 600 MB. AS THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES IT WILL
BECOME MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO FORM ANYWHERE OVER
ARIZONA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AND RATHER
LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF ARIZONA TODAY. SOME CU
ALREADY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THERE. 12Z NAM EVEN DEPICTS
PATCHES OF CAPE NIBBLING AT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. NAM DID A BETTER
JOB OF INITIALIZING MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...AS WELL AS LOCAL HI RES
MODELS FROM 06Z. THUS IT MAY NOT BE OUT TO LUNCH BUT IT ALSO DEPICTS
LARGE AMOUNTS OF CIN. SO...KEEPING THINGS DRY TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 218 AM...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...PRETTY WARM PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SBA
AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS, INCLUDING TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAKING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. PROBABLY JUST SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN CANYONS AND
PASSES LIKE GAVIOTA. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THE
NEXT TWO EVENINGS. WARM EVENING TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SBA
S COAST.

INCREASING NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION FRI AND SAT WHICH LIKELY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO SRN LA COUNTY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING AND
MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING. BEACH AREAS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS A RESULT SAT, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURSDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN ARE
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 281629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...PRETTY WARM PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SBA
AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS, INCLUDING TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAKING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. PROBABLY JUST SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN CANYONS AND
PASSES LIKE GAVIOTA. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THE
NEXT TWO EVENINGS. WARM EVENING TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SBA
S COAST.

INCREASING NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION FRI AND SAT WHICH LIKELY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO SRN LA COUNTY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING AND
MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING. BEACH AREAS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS A RESULT SAT, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURSDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN ARE
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 281629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...PRETTY WARM PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SBA
AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS, INCLUDING TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAKING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. PROBABLY JUST SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN CANYONS AND
PASSES LIKE GAVIOTA. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THE
NEXT TWO EVENINGS. WARM EVENING TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SBA
S COAST.

INCREASING NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION FRI AND SAT WHICH LIKELY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO SRN LA COUNTY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING AND
MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING. BEACH AREAS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS A RESULT SAT, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURSDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN ARE
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 281629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...PRETTY WARM PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE WEAKENING SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SBA
AREA EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS, INCLUDING TONIGHT, THOUGH PEAKING
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. PROBABLY JUST SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN CANYONS AND
PASSES LIKE GAVIOTA. THEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THE
NEXT TWO EVENINGS. WARM EVENING TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS
POSSIBLY PUSHING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SBA
S COAST.

INCREASING NW WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION FRI AND SAT WHICH LIKELY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF LOW CLOUDS TO SRN LA COUNTY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING AND
MORE LIKELY SAT MORNING. BEACH AREAS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER AS A RESULT SAT, BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
WARM AS FRI.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. MARIE`S SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURSDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/900 AM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN ARE
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB/30
SYNOPSIS...MW

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KSTO 281616
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Today is likely to be the warmest day we will see for the next
week or so as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures so
far are a little warmer today north of I80 and in the mountains,
and slightly cooler in Delta influenced areas. Highs this
afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern Sacramento
Valley may see some triple digits, while the rest of the Valley
should reach the mid to upper 90s.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial trough passing to the north tomorrow. This will start
a gradual cooling trend. Additional waves will bring temperatures
down to around normal levels for early next week. No significant
heating events in sight.

An interesting weather fact for Downtown Sacramento, there have
been 15 100 degree or more days this summer. Only one of those has
been in August, and it looks like that may be the only one, unless
today warms up a little more than expected. The average for a
summer is 23. Triple digits have been reached as late as October
10th, so we could still see some hot weather before the year is
done.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Models showing some clouds moving
in Friday from some remnant moisture from ex-hurricane Marie.
Models showing some mid clouds south of I80 late Friday.
12z Nam12 showing potential for sprinkles shifting further south
and east so probably will not be adding them to the forecast.
Forecast looks on track, no changes needed. EK

.Previous Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281616
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected through next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Today is likely to be the warmest day we will see for the next
week or so as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures so
far are a little warmer today north of I80 and in the mountains,
and slightly cooler in Delta influenced areas. Highs this
afternoon should reflect these trends. The northern Sacramento
Valley may see some triple digits, while the rest of the Valley
should reach the mid to upper 90s.

A very weak wave passes through this evening, with a more
substantial trough passing to the north tomorrow. This will start
a gradual cooling trend. Additional waves will bring temperatures
down to around normal levels for early next week. No significant
heating events in sight.

An interesting weather fact for Downtown Sacramento, there have
been 15 100 degree or more days this summer. Only one of those has
been in August, and it looks like that may be the only one, unless
today warms up a little more than expected. The average for a
summer is 23. Triple digits have been reached as late as October
10th, so we could still see some hot weather before the year is
done.

Dry weather is expected into next week. Models showing some clouds moving
in Friday from some remnant moisture from ex-hurricane Marie.
Models showing some mid clouds south of I80 late Friday.
12z Nam12 showing potential for sprinkles shifting further south
and east so probably will not be adding them to the forecast.
Forecast looks on track, no changes needed. EK

.Previous Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281538
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...NICE SATELLITE LOOP
THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIE CLEARLY DEFINED CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS, MINOR FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH FOG THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
QUIET WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AT THE COAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNSHINE AT MOST SPOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RETURN OF A BETTER DEFINED MARINE
LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281425 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 281425 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS










000
FXUS66 KMTR 281158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM PDT.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI EVENING.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...28/330 AM PDT.
LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST SURF
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET THIS MORNING. SURF THIS
LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE...CREATING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 281134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE AND BEACH SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/1130Z.
EXCEPT FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...IN THE SANTA
YNEZ VALLEY AND THE IN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ONCE AGAIN ON
THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH CIGS
AND IFR CONDS LIKELY ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA FROM 010-10Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT/FRI
MORNING. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN
VFR AT THAT TIME.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...28/330 AM PDT.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI EVENING.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...28/330 AM PDT.
LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST SURF
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET THIS MORNING. SURF THIS
LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE...CREATING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
424 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
424 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
424 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281124
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
424 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281122
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281122
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME ACCAS NEAR
THE PHOENIX TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND A FEW HIGH BASED CU
PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TIMING OF THE DAILY WIND
SHIFTS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS







000
FXUS66 KLOX 281048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 281048
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
BIG HONKING 594 DM HIGH OVER CA. GRADIENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND IN FACT
THE KBFL GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE BY DAWN. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND DESERT TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE
EXPECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND PASO ROBLES AREA BUT WITH THE WEAK
GRADIENTS THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG INTO THE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AS THE NW FLOW INCREASES THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GENERATE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ESP THROUGH
THE GAVIOTA PASS. A SMALL EDDY WILL SPIN UP AND THE LA COAST WILL
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS HGTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE
MARINE LAYER PENETRATES A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. IN REALITY THE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH NOTICEABLE COOLING INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SUNDOWNER FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE ABOUT AS
STRONG AS THURSDAY NIGHTS BUT IT MAY FOCUS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE
MONTECITO AREA.

A BROAD PAC NORTHWEST TROF WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY AND HGTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 588 DM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND ALL AREAS WILL SEE NOTABLE COOLING ALTHOUGH
ALL INLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON. THERE SHOULD
BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE HGTS
SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CLOUDS SMOOSHED OUT OF THE
VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL TO NORMAL.

A LITTLE BIT OF MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE TUE AND WED FCST. THE EC
NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
WARM UP. THE OTHER MDLS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP SOME SORT OF TROFING
OVER THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR NOW AND WATCH
THE TRENDS OF THE FUTURE MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KEKA 281047
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
347 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...1030Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
BURN BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SMALL
SCALE EDDIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD, SO WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG PULLING BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST
ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW THE MARINE INVERSION TO REMAIN STRONG.
ANOTHER DAY OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SOME BRIEF CLEARING POSSIBLE AT THE NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
STRATUS/FOG PULLS BACK TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS
WILL PUSH BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING.

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RPA

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS ALLOW STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO BUILD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE INNER WATERS SO AT
THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE NO HEADLINES FOR THE INNER ZONES.
HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF DECREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ORIGINATING
FROM NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DECREASING THE SHOALING THREAT. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 281047
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
347 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...1030Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
BURN BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS SMALL
SCALE EDDIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD, SO WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT
AND MORNING STRATUS/FOG PULLING BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST
ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE
FLATTENED SLIGHTLY BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW THE MARINE INVERSION TO REMAIN STRONG.
ANOTHER DAY OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SOME BRIEF CLEARING POSSIBLE AT THE NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
STRATUS/FOG PULLS BACK TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS
WILL PUSH BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING.

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RPA

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS ALLOW STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO BUILD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE INNER WATERS SO AT
THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE NO HEADLINES FOR THE INNER ZONES.
HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF DECREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ORIGINATING
FROM NOW DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DECREASING THE SHOALING THREAT. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281044
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
344 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281044
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
344 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281044
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
344 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSTO 281044
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
344 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Dry weather to continue for the next week. Warm temperatures to
continue today, with a gradual cooling trend expected into the
middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
Satellite imagery continues to show a large area of high pressure
situated over the Eastern Pacific and building over California. A
moderate onshore breeze continues to blow through the Delta, but
otherwise winds are generally light and skies clear across the
forecast area. Temperatures are running within a degree or two of
24 hours ago.

Benign weather will continue today across Northern California. A
weak shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest
later today. This may bring some clouds to the far northern
portions of the state, but otherwise will have little impact on
local weather. Look for highs this afternoon to be similar to
yesterday, ranging in the 90s to around 100 degrees across the
Valley. Mountain temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 90s.

A deeper trough will move through the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing a bit more cooling. Additionally, some moisture
from former Hurricane Marie is still expected to get caught up in
the westerlies and move through NorCal Friday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the latest runs of the NAM 4km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-
NMM all suggest perhaps some sprinkles from I-80 southward Friday
afternoon or evening. Would like to see another series of model
runs before buying into this solution.

Dang

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal into Monday as
deep short wave system progresses across the middle part of the
U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal. Models then show another significant
pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking across the PacNW
Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as troughing
aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased onshore
flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.
Winds generally below 15 knots except southwest 10 to 20 knots
gusts to 25 knots through the delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KSGX 281028
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH SURF ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR
COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH SLOW WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS INTO
SATURDAY. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND FOR THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TO THE
NORTH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK TODAY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS. AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM INTO
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY COOL.

FOR COASTAL AREAS...LITTLE OR NO STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...
THEN MAYBE VERY PATCHY COVERAGE NEAR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WORKSTATION WRF DOES SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL EDDY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEAR
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM









000
FXUS66 KSGX 281028
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH SURF ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR
COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH SLOW WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS INTO
SATURDAY. SLOW COOLING NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
INLAND FOR THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TO THE
NORTH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENING THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK TODAY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY
DEEPENS. AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM INTO
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY COOL.

FOR COASTAL AREAS...LITTLE OR NO STRATUS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...
THEN MAYBE VERY PATCHY COVERAGE NEAR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WORKSTATION WRF DOES SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL EDDY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEAR
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
280930Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
NO MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
230 AM...THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH SURF TO ORANGE COUNTY TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS TO ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SEE CFWSGX AND SRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE BEACHES IN
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










000
FXUS66 KHNX 281007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND WARMER AGAIN
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER QUIET DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER CA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY SJ VLY AND
DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT FASTER AND
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT IS SLATED
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ALTOCUMULUS
AND CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR SYNOPTIC
COOLING. A SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR IS LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY
THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL NOT BE VERY NOTICEABLE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
AFTERNOON TEMPS VALLEYWIDE WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING THROUGH THE SAC DELTA SATURDAY
AND WILL PROBABLY BLEED INTO THE SJ VLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SJ VLY STAYS
RELATIVELY HOT.

THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AND BY LABOR DAY
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER CA. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER CA THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE
REESTABLISHMENT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND
SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR ON DAYS 6 AND 7.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND WARMER AGAIN
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER QUIET DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER CA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY SJ VLY AND
DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT FASTER AND
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT IS SLATED
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ALTOCUMULUS
AND CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR SYNOPTIC
COOLING. A SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR IS LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY
THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL NOT BE VERY NOTICEABLE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
AFTERNOON TEMPS VALLEYWIDE WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING THROUGH THE SAC DELTA SATURDAY
AND WILL PROBABLY BLEED INTO THE SJ VLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SJ VLY STAYS
RELATIVELY HOT.

THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AND BY LABOR DAY
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER CA. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER CA THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE
REESTABLISHMENT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND
SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR ON DAYS 6 AND 7.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 280936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NV/SOUTHERN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND AS
SUCH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 500 MB WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE MIXING OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LIMITED. EXPECT GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WIND PRONE LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL
RISE IN THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS TO A FEW HOURS OR LESS.

SATURDAY A WESTERLY JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV
BUT AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SATURDAY
MAY BE JUST A NOTCH WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST
A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLAT RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS TRIES TO DIG A LOW
SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PAC SW INTO THE U.S. PAC NW. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OREGON AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT IT EITHER.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THEN BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS MIXING INCREASES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR AREA. SO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 20

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREAS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY. GUSTS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH UP 25-30 KTS AT THE SURFACE EAST OF
THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KPSR 280918
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
218 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY DROPPING
HUMIDITIES TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENTLY DRY AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART COMPLETELY CLEARED ACROSS THE STATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF ACCAS FROM PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR...THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS FROM THE ACCAS OVER PHOENIX...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH PHOENIX AREA SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN. DON/T EXPECT THIS TO LAST
VERY LONG AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 4 AM. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS STILL PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF
7-8 G/KG PER THE 03Z PHOENIX RAOB. ONCE FULL MIXING OCCURS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO CRASH...LIKELY DROPPING
INTO THE 30S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE A SIGN OF WHATS TO COME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE STAYS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY...AREA 500MB HEIGHTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GET A BOOST. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS WILL PEAK NEAR 110 STARTING TODAY...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL
GENERALLY SEE 105-108 DURING THE PERIOD. AREA PWATS DROP FROM AROUND
ONE INCH CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PEELED OFF OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM MARIE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN OUR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST GETS
FLATTENED BY BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVERTAKING THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...500MB HEIGHTS START TO DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW AS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF TIMING ANY
POSSIBLE MOISTURE RETURN. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS SHOW SOME
HINT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN ALREADY SHOWING THIS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
CENTER DOESN/T SHIFT QUITE FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ONLY ADVECTING VERY LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FEEL
KEEPING SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY IS STILL WARRANTED WHILE NEAR ZERO
POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...AND
FOLLOWING SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED.
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS...THO THERE
MAY BE A FEW HIGH BASED CU AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH BASES AOA 9K FEET. WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS












000
FXUS66 KMTR 280542
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
THEN IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT INLAND. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS INDICATING A MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 0000Z KOAK SOUNDING IS NOT REALLY SHOWING A
MARINE LAYER AND IS DISPLAYING OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 4000 TO 12000
FEET. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

TODAY WAS A WARM DAY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN LAND AND MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. GILROY REACHED 96 DEGREES TODAY AND MONTEREY
AIRPORT HIT 77 WITH SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A HIGH
OF 74. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE
COAST...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280542
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1042 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
THEN IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT INLAND. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS INDICATING A MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 0000Z KOAK SOUNDING IS NOT REALLY SHOWING A
MARINE LAYER AND IS DISPLAYING OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 4000 TO 12000
FEET. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

TODAY WAS A WARM DAY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN LAND AND MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. GILROY REACHED 96 DEGREES TODAY AND MONTEREY
AIRPORT HIT 77 WITH SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A HIGH
OF 74. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE
COAST...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND CANYONS.
IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
USUAL AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 280523 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0520Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL COAST
WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING THU. LOCAL LIFR CONDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE SANTA YNEZ
VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY THU EVENING WITH LLWS AND MDT UDDF NEAR
KSBA AFTER 01Z FRI.

KLAX... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...DB
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KHNX 280455
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND RESULT IN ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY WERE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS HITTING
TRIPLE DIGITS. ARVIN AND WASCO REACHED 102 DEGREES...AND COALINGA
HAD A HIGH OF 101. BAKERSFIELD REACHED 99 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
AND FRESNO HIT 98.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM-12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WARMING 1.0-1.5 C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 500-MB HEIGHTS
REMAINING ABOVE 5910 METERS. BASED ON THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH BOTH
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS.

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...PUSHING THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE AND LOWERING 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BELOW
5910 METERS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...IT IS LIKELY THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 280455
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND RESULT IN ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TODAY WERE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS HITTING
TRIPLE DIGITS. ARVIN AND WASCO REACHED 102 DEGREES...AND COALINGA
HAD A HIGH OF 101. BAKERSFIELD REACHED 99 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
AND FRESNO HIT 98.

THE 00Z GFS AND NAM-12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WARMING 1.0-1.5 C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 500-MB HEIGHTS
REMAINING ABOVE 5910 METERS. BASED ON THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH BOTH
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS.

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...PUSHING THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE AND LOWERING 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BELOW
5910 METERS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...IT IS LIKELY THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280420
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH SURF ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN...AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS A VERY WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
REACHED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW
IS WEAKENING AND NEARLY NEUTRAL DUE TO SLACK GRADIENTS. THE MARINE
INVERSION IS ALSO QUITE WEAK AND SHALLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MARINE INFLUENCE LIMITED TO ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST.

UPPER LEVEL WARMING WILL BE LIMITED BUT CONTINUED THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEREFORE HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY
APPROACHING 110 DEGREES LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD COMMENCE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING NEAR THE COAST
BUT CONTINUED HOT WEATHER INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL LIKELY
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...MARIE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SWELL PEAKED AT 11 FEET AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN
BUOY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WAS DOWN TO 9 FEET AT 800 PM. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO 8 FEET THURSDAY...AND THEN
TO 6 FEET FRIDAY. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.


&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...HUGE SURF PUMMELED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES
OF ORANGE COUNTY WEDNESDAY WITH REPORTS OF 10-15 FOOT SURF AT
HUNTINGTON BEACH AND NEWPORT BEACH. THE SURF AT MISSION BEACH AND
SOLANA BEACH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY RANGED FROM 4-6 FEET.

THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE BRING MORE HIGH
SURF...STRONG RIPS AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT ALL BEACHES
THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY
THURSDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE SURF WILL CONTINUE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. FOR
DETAILS CLICK ON THE "BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT" AND THE "HIGH SURF
ADVISORY" ON OUR HOMEPAGE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE







000
FXUS66 KSGX 280420
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH SURF ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN...AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT WAS A VERY WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
REACHED ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONSHORE FLOW
IS WEAKENING AND NEARLY NEUTRAL DUE TO SLACK GRADIENTS. THE MARINE
INVERSION IS ALSO QUITE WEAK AND SHALLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MARINE INFLUENCE LIMITED TO ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST.

UPPER LEVEL WARMING WILL BE LIMITED BUT CONTINUED THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEREFORE HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COACHELLA VALLEY
APPROACHING 110 DEGREES LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD COMMENCE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLING NEAR THE COAST
BUT CONTINUED HOT WEATHER INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL LIKELY
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...MARIE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SWELL PEAKED AT 11 FEET AT THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN
BUOY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WAS DOWN TO 9 FEET AT 800 PM. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO 8 FEET THURSDAY...AND THEN
TO 6 FEET FRIDAY. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.


&&

.BEACHES...
830 PM...HUGE SURF PUMMELED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES
OF ORANGE COUNTY WEDNESDAY WITH REPORTS OF 10-15 FOOT SURF AT
HUNTINGTON BEACH AND NEWPORT BEACH. THE SURF AT MISSION BEACH AND
SOLANA BEACH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY RANGED FROM 4-6 FEET.

THE SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE BRING MORE HIGH
SURF...STRONG RIPS AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT ALL BEACHES
THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY
THURSDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE SURF WILL CONTINUE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. FOR
DETAILS CLICK ON THE "BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT" AND THE "HIGH SURF
ADVISORY" ON OUR HOMEPAGE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE








000
FXUS66 KSTO 280419
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
919 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
High pressure remains over the interior. Some low clouds have
returned to the immediate coast this evening with some cooler
temperatures in the bay. The interior is running several degrees
warmer this evening and will eventually cool off into the low to
mid 60s for the valley and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys.

A weak wave will pass well north of California on Thursday and
flatten the ridge a little but little change in temperatures is
expected when compared to todays highs.

On Friday a deeper low will develop over the west coast and some
high clouds from hurricane Marie may spread over parts of the
interior. The trough`s position is still trying to keep the high
clouds from spreading over the northern forecast area.

The trough will move just far enough east on Saturday to allow for
some light north winds to develop over the interior. Temperatures
in the morning should be cooler but the highs may only cool
slightly over Friday`s as a result of the northerly flow.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 280419
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
919 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
High pressure remains over the interior. Some low clouds have
returned to the immediate coast this evening with some cooler
temperatures in the bay. The interior is running several degrees
warmer this evening and will eventually cool off into the low to
mid 60s for the valley and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys.

A weak wave will pass well north of California on Thursday and
flatten the ridge a little but little change in temperatures is
expected when compared to todays highs.

On Friday a deeper low will develop over the west coast and some
high clouds from hurricane Marie may spread over parts of the
interior. The trough`s position is still trying to keep the high
clouds from spreading over the northern forecast area.

The trough will move just far enough east on Saturday to allow for
some light north winds to develop over the interior. Temperatures
in the morning should be cooler but the highs may only cool
slightly over Friday`s as a result of the northerly flow.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 280419
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
919 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
High pressure remains over the interior. Some low clouds have
returned to the immediate coast this evening with some cooler
temperatures in the bay. The interior is running several degrees
warmer this evening and will eventually cool off into the low to
mid 60s for the valley and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys.

A weak wave will pass well north of California on Thursday and
flatten the ridge a little but little change in temperatures is
expected when compared to todays highs.

On Friday a deeper low will develop over the west coast and some
high clouds from hurricane Marie may spread over parts of the
interior. The trough`s position is still trying to keep the high
clouds from spreading over the northern forecast area.

The trough will move just far enough east on Saturday to allow for
some light north winds to develop over the interior. Temperatures
in the morning should be cooler but the highs may only cool
slightly over Friday`s as a result of the northerly flow.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 280419
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
919 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion (Tonight through Saturday)...
High pressure remains over the interior. Some low clouds have
returned to the immediate coast this evening with some cooler
temperatures in the bay. The interior is running several degrees
warmer this evening and will eventually cool off into the low to
mid 60s for the valley and 40s and 50s for the mountain valleys.

A weak wave will pass well north of California on Thursday and
flatten the ridge a little but little change in temperatures is
expected when compared to todays highs.

On Friday a deeper low will develop over the west coast and some
high clouds from hurricane Marie may spread over parts of the
interior. The trough`s position is still trying to keep the high
clouds from spreading over the northern forecast area.

The trough will move just far enough east on Saturday to allow for
some light north winds to develop over the interior. Temperatures
in the morning should be cooler but the highs may only cool
slightly over Friday`s as a result of the northerly flow.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conds over interior Northern California the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KLOX 280404
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
904 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0207Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 280404
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
904 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT THIS EVENING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS THINNED TO AROUND 500 FT MSL AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAMPS DOWN ON THE MARINE LAYER. WITH THE THIN
MARINE INVERSION...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NUDGING CLOSER THE AREA...500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AND 1000-500
MB THICKNESS VALUES THIN. 950 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH INITIALIZED
WELL IN THE NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS WARM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED ADDITIONALLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD
ALSO HELP INITIATE A LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP
THE MARINE LYR AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL
ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS
TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING FRI/SAT.

LONG TERM...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY OR
SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE WEEK
KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0207Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 PM.

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS...WHICH ARE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...ALSO SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 PM.

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.
SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE/BEACHES...HALL/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280339
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
839 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
THEN IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT INLAND. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS INDICATING A MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 0000Z KOAK SOUNDING IS NOT REALLY SHOWING A
MARINE LAYER AND IS DISPLAYING OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 4000 TO 12000
FEET. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

TODAY WAS A WARM DAY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN LAND AND MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. GILROY REACHED 96 DEGREES TODAY AND MONTEREY
AIRPORT HIT 77 WITH SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A HIGH
OF 74. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE
COAST...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE WEST WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KT WILL EASE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280339
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
839 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
THEN IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE FINAL LOW LIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED LOW CLOUDS BANKING AGAINST THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT INLAND. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS INDICATING A MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 0000Z KOAK SOUNDING IS NOT REALLY SHOWING A
MARINE LAYER AND IS DISPLAYING OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 4000 TO 12000
FEET. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
INLAND OVERNIGHT.

TODAY WAS A WARM DAY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN LAND AND MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. GILROY REACHED 96 DEGREES TODAY AND MONTEREY
AIRPORT HIT 77 WITH SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A HIGH
OF 74. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE
COAST...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE WEST WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KT WILL EASE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 280331
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND MOVE OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING BEHIND A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY FLOW IS EASILY SEEN IN THE
EVENING PLOT AND RAOB DATA. PWAT AT PHOENIX IS DOWN TO JUST OVER ONE
INCH...ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE THE LAST TO DRY AND THEY
REMAINED A BIT ELEVATED EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART AT 8
PM THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS RANGED FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WAS
TOO DRY IN THE MID LAYERS TO ALLOW MUCH MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWING SUNSET THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AT 8 PM. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...AND
FOLLOWING SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED.
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS...THO THERE
MAY BE A FEW HIGH BASED CU AGAIN TOMMOROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH BASES AOA 9K FEET. WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 280331
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND MOVE OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...LEAVING BEHIND A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WESTERLY FLOW IS EASILY SEEN IN THE
EVENING PLOT AND RAOB DATA. PWAT AT PHOENIX IS DOWN TO JUST OVER ONE
INCH...ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE THE LAST TO DRY AND THEY
REMAINED A BIT ELEVATED EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART AT 8
PM THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS RANGED FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WAS
TOO DRY IN THE MID LAYERS TO ALLOW MUCH MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOLLOWING SUNSET THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA AT 8 PM. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...AND
FOLLOWING SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED.
EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS...THO THERE
MAY BE A FEW HIGH BASED CU AGAIN TOMMOROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH BASES AOA 9K FEET. WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS66 KLOX 280207 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
707 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0207Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 280207 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
707 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0207Z.

NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z. VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 17Z AT THE LATEST.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KMTR 280015
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
515 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE WEST WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KT WILL EASE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280015
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
515 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE WEST WINDS
WILL EASE THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT OVER KOAK AND
TEMPORARILY OVER KSFO BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KT WILL EASE BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KHNX 272315 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
415 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AND RESULT IN A MINOR WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272315 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
415 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AND RESULT IN A MINOR WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSTO 272238
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
338 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion
Today has been a quiet weather day with clear skies and dry
weather with high pressure ridging developing over the area. This
has brought subsidence and dry air for northern California. The
main weather change has been warmer temperatures, which are
about 3 to 5 degrees higher than yesterday afternoon. Locations in
the northern Sacramento Valley haven`t increased as much and look
like they will fall short of triple digits. Winds have been rather
light today as well, even for the Delta areas, with just a trickle
increasing a little early this evening.

Hurricane Marie will continue to track to the northwest into the
Pacific and weakens. A rather dry upper level trough from the Gulf
of Alaska will move through the Pacific Northwest Friday into the
weekend which will flatten the ridge and bring some cooling.
Models still suggest the trough will pull some moisture out of
what will remain of Marie and bring it across Northern California
in the form of some clouds, mainly late Friday and early Saturday.
No precipitation is expected over the area.

Near normal temperatures expected for the weekend. Increasing
Delta breeze increasing Thursday and more on Friday. Breezy
northerly winds at times for the northern Sacramento valley Friday
night and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with VFR conds and genly SKC.
Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn and thru
Delta aftns into eves.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 272238
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
338 PM PDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures, with a weak trough by Friday bringing
increasing high clouds and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Near normal temperatures and dry weather for next week.

&&

.Discussion
Today has been a quiet weather day with clear skies and dry
weather with high pressure ridging developing over the area. This
has brought subsidence and dry air for northern California. The
main weather change has been warmer temperatures, which are
about 3 to 5 degrees higher than yesterday afternoon. Locations in
the northern Sacramento Valley haven`t increased as much and look
like they will fall short of triple digits. Winds have been rather
light today as well, even for the Delta areas, with just a trickle
increasing a little early this evening.

Hurricane Marie will continue to track to the northwest into the
Pacific and weakens. A rather dry upper level trough from the Gulf
of Alaska will move through the Pacific Northwest Friday into the
weekend which will flatten the ridge and bring some cooling.
Models still suggest the trough will pull some moisture out of
what will remain of Marie and bring it across Northern California
in the form of some clouds, mainly late Friday and early Saturday.
No precipitation is expected over the area.

Near normal temperatures expected for the weekend. Increasing
Delta breeze increasing Thursday and more on Friday. Breezy
northerly winds at times for the northern Sacramento valley Friday
night and Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Dry northwesterly flow aloft over Interior NorCal Sunday into
Monday as deep short wave system progresses across the middle
part of the U.S. and upper ridging persists in the EPAC.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal. Models then show
another significant pacific short wave approaching Tuesday, tracking
across the PacNW Wed. This will bring lowering heights over NorCal as
troughing aloft deepens, resulting in some cooling with increased
onshore flow midweek.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs with VFR conds and genly SKC.
Isold SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn and thru
Delta aftns into eves.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KEKA 272212 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
309 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HUGGED THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. THUS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO
EXTEND SLIGHTLY INTO THE ADJACENT RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN PEEL BACK TO THE COASTLINE AGAIN ON THU. 2PM
TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S AS
A WARM AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SMALL SCALE EDDIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PULLING BACK TO THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON. THE
LAYER MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED
LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS
FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINED EXTENSIVE TODAY WITH SOME
SPOTS OF VERY THIN CLOUD COVER. EDDIES HELPED FEW PARTS OF THE COAST
TO CLEAR MOMENTARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE COAST WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A RETURN
OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SMOKE
GENERATED BY FIRES IN SISKIYOU, TRINITY, AND N. MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE MARIE OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. BUOY DATA
OFF OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATES THE SWELL MAY BE A
FEW FEET SMALLER THAN PREDICTED BY SWAN...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF 2 TO 5
FEET AT 15 TO 18 SECONDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN THESE WAVES REACH
THE COAST THEY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CURRENTS AND OCCASIONAL
LARGE WAVE SETS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS TO
MARINERS INCLUDING: STRONGER CURRENTS, INCREASED SHOALING HAZARDS
THROUGH WAVE SET BEHAVIOR, AND THE IMPACT OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING ANCHORAGES AND COVES THAT ARE TYPICALLY SHELTERED FROM
NORTHWEST WAVES. IN ADDITION, THE SWELL POSES A THREAT TO
INDIVIDUALS THAT RECREATE IN OR NEAR THE OCEAN INCLUDING: SURFERS,
ABALONE DIVERS, AND BEACH GOERS.

GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVES STEEPEN AND WILL END
LATE FRIDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF EASING CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS), HOWEVER, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE CALIFORNIA
THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS.
RPA/KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA










000
FXUS66 KEKA 272212 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
309 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HUGGED THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. THUS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO
EXTEND SLIGHTLY INTO THE ADJACENT RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN PEEL BACK TO THE COASTLINE AGAIN ON THU. 2PM
TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THU SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S AS
A WARM AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST ON FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SMALL SCALE EDDIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PULLING BACK TO THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON. THE
LAYER MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED
LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS
FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINED EXTENSIVE TODAY WITH SOME
SPOTS OF VERY THIN CLOUD COVER. EDDIES HELPED FEW PARTS OF THE COAST
TO CLEAR MOMENTARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE COAST WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A RETURN
OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SMOKE
GENERATED BY FIRES IN SISKIYOU, TRINITY, AND N. MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE MARIE OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. BUOY DATA
OFF OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATES THE SWELL MAY BE A
FEW FEET SMALLER THAN PREDICTED BY SWAN...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF 2 TO 5
FEET AT 15 TO 18 SECONDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN THESE WAVES REACH
THE COAST THEY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CURRENTS AND OCCASIONAL
LARGE WAVE SETS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS TO
MARINERS INCLUDING: STRONGER CURRENTS, INCREASED SHOALING HAZARDS
THROUGH WAVE SET BEHAVIOR, AND THE IMPACT OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING ANCHORAGES AND COVES THAT ARE TYPICALLY SHELTERED FROM
NORTHWEST WAVES. IN ADDITION, THE SWELL POSES A THREAT TO
INDIVIDUALS THAT RECREATE IN OR NEAR THE OCEAN INCLUDING: SURFERS,
ABALONE DIVERS, AND BEACH GOERS.

GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVES STEEPEN AND WILL END
LATE FRIDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF EASING CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS), HOWEVER, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE CALIFORNIA
THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS.
RPA/KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA









000
FXUS66 KEKA 272204
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HUGGED THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
NOT CHANCE MUCH TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. THUS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO EXTEND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE ADJACENT RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PEEL
BACK TO THE COASTLINE AGAIN ON THU. 2PM TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER
MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON
THU SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S AS A WARM AIR MASS HOLDS
OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRI AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL FRI WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SMALL SCALE EDDIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PULLING BACK TO THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON. THE LAYER
MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED
LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS
FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINED EXTENSIVE TODAY WITH SOME
SPOTS OF VERY THIN CLOUD COVER. EDDIES HELPED FEW PARTS OF THE COAST
TO CLEAR MOMENTARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE COAST WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A RETURN
OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SMOKE
GENERATED BY FIRES IN SISKIYOU, TRINITY, AND N. MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE MARIE OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. BUOY DATA
OFF OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATES THE SWELL MAY BE A
FEW FEET SMALLER THAN PREDICTED BY SWAN...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF 2 TO 5
FEET AT 15 TO 18 SECONDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN THESE WAVES REACH
THE COAST THEY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CURRENTS AND OCCASIONAL
LARGE WAVE SETS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS TO
MARINERS INCLUDING: STRONGER CURRENTS, INCREASED SHOALING HAZARDS
THROUGH WAVE SET BEHAVIOR, AND THE IMPACT OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING ANCHORAGES AND COVES THAT ARE TYPICALLY SHELTERED FROM
NORTHWEST WAVES. IN ADDITION, THE SWELL POSES A THREAT TO
INDIVIDUALS THAT RECREATE IN OR NEAR THE OCEAN INCLUDING: SURFERS,
ABALONE DIVERS, AND BEACH GOERS.

GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVES STEEPEN AND WILL END
LATE FRIDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF EASING CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS), HOWEVER, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE CALIFORNIA
THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS.
RPA/KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 272204
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HUGGED THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL
NOT CHANCE MUCH TONIGHT INTO THU AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. THUS EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO EXTEND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE ADJACENT RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PEEL
BACK TO THE COASTLINE AGAIN ON THU. 2PM TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER
MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON
THU SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S AS A WARM AIR MASS HOLDS
OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRI AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL FRI WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SMALL SCALE EDDIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PULLING BACK TO THE COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON. THE LAYER
MIGHT DEEPEN ON FRI AND SAT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST BY MID WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST HAS BEEN BASED
LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH NO STRONG INDICATIONS
FROM THE MODELS TO FORECAST ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINED EXTENSIVE TODAY WITH SOME
SPOTS OF VERY THIN CLOUD COVER. EDDIES HELPED FEW PARTS OF THE COAST
TO CLEAR MOMENTARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE COAST WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A RETURN
OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SMOKE
GENERATED BY FIRES IN SISKIYOU, TRINITY, AND N. MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
KML

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE MARIE OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. BUOY DATA
OFF OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATES THE SWELL MAY BE A
FEW FEET SMALLER THAN PREDICTED BY SWAN...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF 2 TO 5
FEET AT 15 TO 18 SECONDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN THESE WAVES REACH
THE COAST THEY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CURRENTS AND OCCASIONAL
LARGE WAVE SETS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING BEACHES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS TO
MARINERS INCLUDING: STRONGER CURRENTS, INCREASED SHOALING HAZARDS
THROUGH WAVE SET BEHAVIOR, AND THE IMPACT OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING ANCHORAGES AND COVES THAT ARE TYPICALLY SHELTERED FROM
NORTHWEST WAVES. IN ADDITION, THE SWELL POSES A THREAT TO
INDIVIDUALS THAT RECREATE IN OR NEAR THE OCEAN INCLUDING: SURFERS,
ABALONE DIVERS, AND BEACH GOERS.

GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WAVES STEEPEN AND WILL END
LATE FRIDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF EASING CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS), HOWEVER, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD MORE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE CALIFORNIA
THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS.
RPA/KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA







000
FXUS66 KHNX 272154
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
254 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 27 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 272154
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
254 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION
TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HURRICANE MARIE APPROACHING
25N/125W OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE...HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND MORE TOWARD THE MID-WEST...WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PLACE THE AREA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
WILL ALSO STEER MARIE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER AN AREA
BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII. THEREFORE...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE MID-WEST WILL DRAW IN SOME OF MARIE/S MOISTURE...
THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TAP BEFORE FLOWING
INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. YET...THE LACK OF STORM WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP AS PLUS 100 DEG-F READINGS COULD BE FELT
BEFORE SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGGING
ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN JUST HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE...MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF ITS INTRODUCTION INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS STILL PROGGING
THIS TROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING TREND
AS WELL AS SOME THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFTING DYNAMICS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MORE THEN A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

WILL EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AS HEIGHTS BEGIN A SLOW RISE. WHILE NOT
A STRONG RIDGE PATTERN...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AS
THE REGION REMAINS DRY. OF LESS CONFIDENCE WILL BE THE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP AS THIS MAY BECOME ANOTHER POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER. IF SO...MOUNTAIN PRECIP MAY BY THE ONLY WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY AUGUST 27 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     77:1988     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KREV 272144
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY
WITH A GRADUAL FLATTENING FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THE
NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MARIE STREAMS IN. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
TROUGHING IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED ON SATURDAY
BUT JET STREAM WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
WIT HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY WITH MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY AND
WESTERLY AGAIN BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK BUT MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DEALS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHILE EC IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS, BOTH PROVIDE DRY SOLUTIONS SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 272144
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY
WITH A GRADUAL FLATTENING FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THE
NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MARIE STREAMS IN. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
TROUGHING IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED ON SATURDAY
BUT JET STREAM WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
WIT HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY WITH MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY AND
WESTERLY AGAIN BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK BUT MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DEALS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHILE EC IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS, BOTH PROVIDE DRY SOLUTIONS SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272036 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THOSE NW WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS TO THE SBA AREA STARTING THU
EVENING AND RETURNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY SATURDAY EVENINGS AS WELL.
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ALL OF THOSE DAYS BUT LIKELY PEAKING
FRI/SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KLOX 272019
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 272019
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 272019
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 272019
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH ZONE IS
PRETTY QUIET. A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINES
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL/SHALLOW MARINE LYR. HIGHS IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS AROUND 100 AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES AROUND 90. THE
WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN. INCREASING NW FLOW OFFSHORE SHOULD ALSO HELP INITIATE A
LITTLE EDDY CIRCULATION WHICH WILL SPIN UP THE MARINE LYR AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE COASTAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WEEKEND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH REALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS COOLING A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TEMPS SHOULD DIP A TAD BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY OR SO. A TROF WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ENTIRE
WEEK KEEPING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL EAST SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS ABOUT AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS YOU CAN GET.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/115 PM...

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS CONTAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALSO
SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BEACHES...27/115 PM...

LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURF
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES...WITH SETS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET AND
EVEN ISOLATED SETS TO 20 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
AND LIFE THREATENING SURF ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. SURF THIS LARGE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONG
SHORE CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CREATE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE.

ALTHOUGH VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST
CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL ALSO
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE SURF WILL NOT BE AS LARGE...BUT ELEVATED SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS65 KPSR 272018
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 272018
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 272018
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 272018
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...USHERING
IN A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THURSDAY...PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A FEW CU AND EVEN
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EAST OF
PHOENIX...BUT SKIES WERE CLEAR TO THE WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY. TEMPS
AS OF 20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINED QUITE A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM YUMA
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S/ TO PHOENIX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/.

DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 02Z. I
WILL MAINTAIN 10-20 POPS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ZERO POPS OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED...DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. POPS WERE
ALREADY ZEROED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH WARM H5 TEMPERATURES
AROUND -3C...BL MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-5 G/KG AND NO MLCAPE TO SPEAK
OF...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY CU LET ALONE STORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EVENTUALLY MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT KEEP US
UNDER A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND DOWNWARD STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY KNOCKS DOWN OUR UPPER HEIGHTS. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EUROPEAN BEGINS TO REBUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS FOR SOME
MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN UNDER WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS KEEPS
THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER A WEAKER SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL RETURN
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...HAVE INTRODUCED AT LEAST SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO STORM CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS EACH
DAY WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. RECOVERIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272004
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN...AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SO
FAR...SURF 10 FEET OR MORE...WITH MUCH HIGHER SETS...IN HUNTINGTON
BEACH AND AT THE NEWPORT BEACH COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES.
HIGHER AT THE WEDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LARGE.

BASED ON BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL WRF...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MINIMAL AT BEST...WITH STILL WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE A RAMP UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MORE MONSOON
IS PROBABLY ON TAP FOR US EVENTUALLY AS WE STILL HAVE THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER TO GO THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
272000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS PEAKED AROUND 10
FEET TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL PERIOD.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272004
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN...AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SO
FAR...SURF 10 FEET OR MORE...WITH MUCH HIGHER SETS...IN HUNTINGTON
BEACH AND AT THE NEWPORT BEACH COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES.
HIGHER AT THE WEDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LARGE.

BASED ON BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL WRF...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MINIMAL AT BEST...WITH STILL WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE A RAMP UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MORE MONSOON
IS PROBABLY ON TAP FOR US EVENTUALLY AS WE STILL HAVE THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER TO GO THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
272000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS PEAKED AROUND 10
FEET TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL PERIOD.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272004
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN...AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SO
FAR...SURF 10 FEET OR MORE...WITH MUCH HIGHER SETS...IN HUNTINGTON
BEACH AND AT THE NEWPORT BEACH COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES.
HIGHER AT THE WEDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LARGE.

BASED ON BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL WRF...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MINIMAL AT BEST...WITH STILL WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE A RAMP UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MORE MONSOON
IS PROBABLY ON TAP FOR US EVENTUALLY AS WE STILL HAVE THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER TO GO THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
272000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS PEAKED AROUND 10
FEET TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL PERIOD.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 272004
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN...AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. SO
FAR...SURF 10 FEET OR MORE...WITH MUCH HIGHER SETS...IN HUNTINGTON
BEACH AND AT THE NEWPORT BEACH COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES.
HIGHER AT THE WEDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT
SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LARGE.

BASED ON BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL WRF...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MINIMAL AT BEST...WITH STILL WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE A RAMP UP IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MORE MONSOON
IS PROBABLY ON TAP FOR US EVENTUALLY AS WE STILL HAVE THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER TO GO THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
272000Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE HAS PEAKED AROUND 10
FEET TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL PERIOD.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE
TO THE SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KMTR 272004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
104 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING
AT THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 272004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
104 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING
AT THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 272004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
104 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING
AT THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 272004
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
104 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ONLY TO COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR THE COAST...VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A MODEST MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
RETURN AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES. IN ADDITION...LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING
AT THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR
MOST SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 271803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM A BIT OF ADDITIONAL WARMING INLAND...NOT
A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA. THUS...SEASONALLY
TYPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MADE A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED
OFF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING A BIT AHEAD...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT...ASIDE FROM SOME
AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ALONG THE COAST AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE MILD
SIDE AROUND THE BAYS FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS REFLECTS CONTINUATION OF THE
UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS...PRESENTLY 63 DEG AT BOTH THE BODEGA BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO
BUOYS...AND 65 DEG AT THE ONES OFFSHORE FROM HALF MOON BAY AND
MONTEREY BAY...OR ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON STRATUS COVERAGE THIS MORNING...NOW
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SOME PATCHES NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FROM
ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE SOUTHWARD. CONSISTENT WITH THIS...LATEST
PROFILER DATA FROM BODEGA BAY AND FORT ORD SHOW SIGNIFICANT RECENT
SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH ITS DEPTH NOW DOWN TO AROUND
1300 FT.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE REDUCTION IN THE MARINE
LAYER AND A CONTINUING MODEST UPWARD TREND IN MODEL-OUTPUT 850 MB
TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND BAYS. AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. DO
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT...AND SIMILARLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT TO ONLY EXTEND LOCALLY INLAND
AROUND THE BAYS.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH OUR
DISTRICT. ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS REGARD VARY WIDELY...BASIC
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE THEN WELL OFFSHORE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE AND CARRY
IT THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. HOWEVER...PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN NO MORE IMPACT FOR US THAN SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE WEEKEND STARTS.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM OUR PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODULATIONS IN THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK LOOK TO CONTINUE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING AT
THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271803
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1103 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM A BIT OF ADDITIONAL WARMING INLAND...NOT
A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER CALIFORNIA. THUS...SEASONALLY
TYPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MADE A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED
OFF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING A BIT AHEAD...NO MAJOR
CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT...ASIDE FROM SOME
AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ALONG THE COAST AND
LOCALLY INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE MILD
SIDE AROUND THE BAYS FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS REFLECTS CONTINUATION OF THE
UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS...PRESENTLY 63 DEG AT BOTH THE BODEGA BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO
BUOYS...AND 65 DEG AT THE ONES OFFSHORE FROM HALF MOON BAY AND
MONTEREY BAY...OR ABOUT 8 DEG ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL OUTPUT...HAVE
BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON STRATUS COVERAGE THIS MORNING...NOW
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SOME PATCHES NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FROM
ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE SOUTHWARD. CONSISTENT WITH THIS...LATEST
PROFILER DATA FROM BODEGA BAY AND FORT ORD SHOW SIGNIFICANT RECENT
SHALLOWING OF THE MARINE LAYER...WITH ITS DEPTH NOW DOWN TO AROUND
1300 FT.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE REDUCTION IN THE MARINE
LAYER AND A CONTINUING MODEST UPWARD TREND IN MODEL-OUTPUT 850 MB
TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND BAYS. AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. DO
EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT...AND SIMILARLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT TO ONLY EXTEND LOCALLY INLAND
AROUND THE BAYS.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH OUR
DISTRICT. ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS REGARD VARY WIDELY...BASIC
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL PICK UP SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE THEN WELL OFFSHORE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE AND CARRY
IT THROUGH OUR DISTRICT. HOWEVER...PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN NO MORE IMPACT FOR US THAN SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE WEEKEND STARTS.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM OUR PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ASIDE FROM
SOME MODULATIONS IN THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL STRATUS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK LOOK TO CONTINUE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF A PATCH OF
CLOUDS OVER COASTAL SONOMA VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY (INCLUDING AT
THE TERMINALS). DECIDED TO BRING BACK MVFR LATE TONIGHT FOR MOST
SPOTS BASED OFF THE WRF WHICH INITIALIZED WELL. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT) BE A NON-ISSUE TODAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR 11Z TO 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH STRATUS LIKELY LATE EVENING AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:44 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BELL
MARINE: BELL

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271649 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271649 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271649 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 271649 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1650Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY
ANTICIPATE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG TO KSMX (WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDS
LIKELY) WHILE ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271630
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL BRING HIGH SURF ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PATCHY FOR A FEW
DAYS...THEN GREATER COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAYS STORY IS THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...WHICH SHOULD SHOW A
DECREASE BY THURSDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON THE BUFKIT DATA LOOKS
TO BE RATHER SKIMPY...WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER
EXCEPT TO ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP DURING THE MORNINGS. RIGHT NOW EVERY
SINGLE METAR SITE IN OUR TEMPERATURE TABLE IS WARMER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WRF DATA SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW...PATCHY
MARINE LAYER...THEN SOME DEEPENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MONSOON-WISE...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR SOME DRYING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271515Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL PEAK AROUND 10
FEET THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SWELL THIS MORNING COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL PRODUCE HIGH
SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE TO THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS





000
FXUS66 KSGX 271630
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL BRING HIGH SURF ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PATCHY FOR A FEW
DAYS...THEN GREATER COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAYS STORY IS THE HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...WHICH SHOULD SHOW A
DECREASE BY THURSDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS BASED ON THE BUFKIT DATA LOOKS
TO BE RATHER SKIMPY...WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER
EXCEPT TO ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP DURING THE MORNINGS. RIGHT NOW EVERY
SINGLE METAR SITE IN OUR TEMPERATURE TABLE IS WARMER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WRF DATA SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW...PATCHY
MARINE LAYER...THEN SOME DEEPENING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MONSOON-WISE...THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR SOME DRYING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
271515Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
PATCHES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
815 AM...LARGE SOUTH SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL PEAK AROUND 10
FEET THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LONGER SWELL
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SWELL THIS MORNING COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.BEACHES...
815 AM...LARGE SOUTH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL PRODUCE HIGH
SURF TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. SAN DIEGO COUNTY
BEACHES WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE HIGH SURF DUE TO THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION...HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG RIP AND
LONGSHORE CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY IN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT MAINTAIN ITSELF SOMEWHAT IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS SEE...COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...LAXCFWSGX AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST...LAXSRFSGX.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES IN THE
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...TS






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271628
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH CAVU CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WHERE LIFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-16Z THU.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 271628
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
BRINGING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LOOKS LIKE A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW, VERY SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION LESS THAN 500`, AND A
LACK OF MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL ALL COMBINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS UP TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS. WARMER VALLEYS WILL BE PUSHING
100 AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE 5-10 MILES INLAND WILL PUSH 90.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMING AS HGTS PUSH UP TO 594 DM. LOOK FOR A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS MEANS THE WARMEST VLYS WILL
SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.

LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE EDDY SPINS UP FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
GOOD ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE LA COAST. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TOTAL
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. HGTS FALL AS THE RIDGE IS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
BY A PAC NW LOW AND THIS SHOULD COOL MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE LA
COAST MAY SEE A BIGGER DROP DUE TO THE INCREASED MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
PRETTY DULL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A VERY LARGE BROAD TROF SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
AND PUSHES THE UPPER HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. HGTS LOWER (BUT NOT
MUCH) THERE WILL BE A SLOW COOLING TREND AND A SLOW INCREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN BUT EXCEPT FOR THE SANTA YNEZ THE VLYS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/1130Z

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH CAVU CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...WHERE LIFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-16Z THU.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER
WATERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

&&

.BEACHES...27/900 AM

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY EXPOSED SOUTH
FACING SHORES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS
TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES TODAY. SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
LATE THIS MORNING. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON
ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRI. AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE WILL GENERATE SWELLS THAT SHOULD ARRIVE A WEEK FROM
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST LAXCFWLOX FOR CURRENT EVENT DETAILS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB/RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities