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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291216
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG
WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW
CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE
LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS
CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR
TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL
READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE
LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND
SOME LOWER 80S.

THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK
WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE.

LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS
POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING AS MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
COMPRESSED LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH IS
LEADING SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO PUSH TOWARDS EARLIER CLEARING THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL SLUGGISHLY CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVF THROUGH 18-20Z
DEPENDING ON LOCATION BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY
RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING. MODERATE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH
18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 01-02Z FRIDAY
EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
INTERMITTENT DZ THROUGH 19-20Z THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS. MVFR CIGS RETURN AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 291216
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
516 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG
WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW
CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE
LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS
CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR
TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL
READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE
LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND
SOME LOWER 80S.

THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK
WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE.

LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS
POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING AS MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
COMPRESSED LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH IS
LEADING SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO PUSH TOWARDS EARLIER CLEARING THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL SLUGGISHLY CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVF THROUGH 18-20Z
DEPENDING ON LOCATION BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY
RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING. MODERATE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH
18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 01-02Z FRIDAY
EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
INTERMITTENT DZ THROUGH 19-20Z THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS. MVFR CIGS RETURN AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 291155
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR AND SFC WINDS GNLY LIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE RIM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS YIELDING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT FOLLOWING FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK WITH THE USUAL
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 291155
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR AND SFC WINDS GNLY LIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS. NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE RIM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS YIELDING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT FOLLOWING FAIR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK WITH THE USUAL
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS



000
FXUS66 KMTR 291110
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG
WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW
CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE
LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS
CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR
TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL
READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE
LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND
SOME LOWER 80S.

THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK
WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE.

LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS
POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MEAN A RELATIVELY EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
IFR CIGS RETURNING BY 02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AT KMRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 291110
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
410 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG
WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW
CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE
LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS
CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR
TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL
READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE
LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND
SOME LOWER 80S.

THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL
BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES
ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK
WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE.

LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS
POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MEAN A RELATIVELY EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
IFR CIGS RETURNING BY 02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AT KMRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KLOX 291101 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1055Z

AT 0844Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4400 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN ALL COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOW MVFR ACROSS L.A. COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS. IFR CIGS HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND WERE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. EXPECT IFR CONDS TO PUSH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VLYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST. SIMILAR LOW CLOUD PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE VLYS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20
PERCENT THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL
DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MON.

&&.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 291101 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1055Z

AT 0844Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4400 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN ALL COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOW MVFR ACROSS L.A. COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS. IFR CIGS HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND WERE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. EXPECT IFR CONDS TO PUSH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VLYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST. SIMILAR LOW CLOUD PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE VLYS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20
PERCENT THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL
DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MON.

&&.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 291101 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
355 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1055Z

AT 0844Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1500 FT
DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 4400 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN ALL COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOW MVFR ACROSS L.A. COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS. IFR CIGS HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND WERE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. EXPECT IFR CONDS TO PUSH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VLYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST. SIMILAR LOW CLOUD PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE VLYS.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20
PERCENT THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...29/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL
DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MON.

&&.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...DB


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 291040
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. LATE IN THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
DEEP...AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT IT APPEARS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL ONLY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. INLAND MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY
AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD CONVECTIVE
PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...BUT GOOD ENOUGH THAT ITS HARD
TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO START TO DEEPEN AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SATURDAY THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS...SUCH AS UKIAH AND
GARBERVILLE...A BIT COOLER EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN STEADY. FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE
SAME AS FRIDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST A BIT
FARTHER INLAND THAN ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. AS
OFTEN HAPPENS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN A
RIDGE...THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WEAKENED A BIT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR A HALF INCH AT THE ORCAL BORDER WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SKIES
INLAND WILL BE A BIT CLEARER ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS.
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING THE PEAK HEATING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. THE GFS SHOWS A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL WILL HANG AROUND AND THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE HOW FAST THIS
WILL HAPPEN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS AT BUILDING
THIS BACK. EITHER WAY THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH SOME
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE CLEARING
AT THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT IFR TO
PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPO VFR IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.
INLAND...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE REPORTING A NORTHERLY
MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THE 0510Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 KT ACROSS ZONE 470 AND 15-25 KT ACROSS
ZONE 475. THIS WAS AS MUCH AS 5 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS
FORECASTED, SO ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM WIND FORECAST UPWARDS TO
REFLECT THIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WEAKENS, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR WATERS TO WEAKEN. LEFT THE HEADLINE UP, BUT THINK IT
MIGHT NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY (MAYBE THIS EVENING) BECAUSE THAT`S
WHEN MODELS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MODELS THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHERLY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS, CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS TO STRENGTHEN.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 291040
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. LATE IN THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
DEEP...AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT IT APPEARS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL ONLY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. INLAND MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY
AND EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD CONVECTIVE
PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...BUT GOOD ENOUGH THAT ITS HARD
TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO START TO DEEPEN AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SATURDAY THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS...SUCH AS UKIAH AND
GARBERVILLE...A BIT COOLER EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN STEADY. FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE
SAME AS FRIDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST A BIT
FARTHER INLAND THAN ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. AS
OFTEN HAPPENS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN A
RIDGE...THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WEAKENED A BIT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR A HALF INCH AT THE ORCAL BORDER WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SKIES
INLAND WILL BE A BIT CLEARER ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS.
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING THE PEAK HEATING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. THE GFS SHOWS A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL WILL HANG AROUND AND THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE HOW FAST THIS
WILL HAPPEN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS AT BUILDING
THIS BACK. EITHER WAY THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH SOME
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE CLEARING
AT THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...FOG SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT IFR TO
PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPO VFR IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.
INLAND...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE REPORTING A NORTHERLY
MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THE 0510Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 15 KT ACROSS ZONE 470 AND 15-25 KT ACROSS
ZONE 475. THIS WAS AS MUCH AS 5 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS
FORECASTED, SO ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM WIND FORECAST UPWARDS TO
REFLECT THIS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WEAKENS, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR WATERS TO WEAKEN. LEFT THE HEADLINE UP, BUT THINK IT
MIGHT NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY (MAYBE THIS EVENING) BECAUSE THAT`S
WHEN MODELS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MODELS THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHERLY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS, CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS TO STRENGTHEN.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 291022
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
322 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WEAK FLOW IN THE MINERAL-MONO
COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
A WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW
MOVING BUT ALSO SHORT LIVED DUE TO LIMITED FORCING, WITH ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP, AS RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IMPROVED MIXING EACH DAY
WILL LEAD TO MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WE BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ONLY DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR.

AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS LOW, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS IN AREAS NORTH OF FALLON-PYRAMID LAKE WHERE INCREASED
FORCING ALOFT COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING THIS
CYCLE AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO
DRIFT EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

WITH THE TROUGH INITIALLY SHOWING UP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MONDAY
AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO
THE PAC NW...WE HAVE JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.

BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE THIS NOTED IN THE
FORECAST. BE AWARE...THOUGH...AS WE PROGRESS CLOSER TO THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY BE INTRODUCED. HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED AND THU BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH DAY COULD SEE GUSTIER LATE AFTERNOON
WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA...TYPICAL FOR THE WARMER MONTHS. CONVECTION
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO AUSTIN. ANY
CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT EVEN IF
THUNDER DOES DEVELOP STORMS COULD BE NAVIGATED AROUND.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KTS AND RIDGE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KTS OR MORE. CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 291022
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
322 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WEAK FLOW IN THE MINERAL-MONO
COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
A WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW
MOVING BUT ALSO SHORT LIVED DUE TO LIMITED FORCING, WITH ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP, AS RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IMPROVED MIXING EACH DAY
WILL LEAD TO MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WE BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ONLY DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR.

AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IS LOW, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS IN AREAS NORTH OF FALLON-PYRAMID LAKE WHERE INCREASED
FORCING ALOFT COMBINES WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING THIS
CYCLE AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO
DRIFT EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

WITH THE TROUGH INITIALLY SHOWING UP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MONDAY
AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN FARTHER NORTH INTO
THE PAC NW...WE HAVE JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.

BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE THIS NOTED IN THE
FORECAST. BE AWARE...THOUGH...AS WE PROGRESS CLOSER TO THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY BE INTRODUCED. HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WED AND THU BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. EACH DAY COULD SEE GUSTIER LATE AFTERNOON
WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA...TYPICAL FOR THE WARMER MONTHS. CONVECTION
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO AUSTIN. ANY
CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT EVEN IF
THUNDER DOES DEVELOP STORMS COULD BE NAVIGATED AROUND.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KTS AND RIDGE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KTS OR MORE. CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 291019
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
319 AM PDT Fri May 29 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures today and Saturday as high
pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week with
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail end of a
Pacific trough brushes through. Warmer by mid week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the west coast bringing mainly fair
skies to northern California this morning. Coastal stratus making
its way through the delta again with similar delta breeze and
marine layer conditions to early Thursday. Therefore expect some
brief patchy stratus to make it into the southern Sacramento
valley later this morning. Otherwise...another quiet day expected
with subsidence under the ridge likely to prevent any afternoon
mountain thunderstorm threat. Overall airmass warms slightly for a
slight warm up today. Maximum temperatures today will be pushing
up close to the warmest of the season so far most areas. Upper
ridge axis shifts inland over the Great Basin on Saturday for a
slight cooling. Slightly deeper marine layer and slightly stronger
onshore flow so would expect a little patchy coastal stratus in
the valley again Saturday morning. Otherwise...generally fair
skies are expected for the first half of the weekend. The upper
Pacific low pressure system now centered around 39 north 151 west
is forecast to approach the coast on Sunday. Main impacts Sunday
will be increasing winds especially over higher terrain and a drop
in daytime temperatures. If current timing holds...the coastal
range could see a few showers or isolated thunderstorms in the
late afternoon and evening hours. The system then lifts to the
northeast on Monday on its way to the Pacific Northwest. A much
more significant cool off will occur on Monday with daytime highs
forecast to drop to a few degrees below normal. The northern
portions of the CWA will see a chance of showers but stability
progs are not showing enough instability to indicate
thunderstorms. Current models fairly consistent in keeping
precipitation threat north of about Red Bluff with southern areas
remaining dry.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Weak upper trough moves through Tuesday followed by weak upper
ridging Wednesday, then another weaker trough Thursday into Friday.
Slight chance of showers are possible over the Shasta and Plumas
mountains Tuesday, otherwise dry weather expected. High temperatures
forecast to gradually trend upward through the extended forecast
period.


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc isold MVFR/IFR cigs poss in Delta and Srn Sac Vly in
ST til arnd 17z Fri. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts thru
Delta til arnd 16z Fri.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 291018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
318 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG REMAINING MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLING WITH
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK AND WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS INDEED QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AND THE LIMITED
EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THE WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY AND WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS...INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR SUNDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES
THEN WILL BE THE HOTTEST IN THE DESERTS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE HIGH DESERT AND UP TO 105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN
THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO ALL
AREAS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WIND PRONE
AREAS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ZONAL ONSHORE AND SOME IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW AT TIMES KEEPING WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE FAVORED ONSHORE PASSES. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

290900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200
FEET MSL WITH TOPS REACHING TO 2000 FEET AND VIS BELOW 5SM ALONG
INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ELEVATIONS. SCATTER OUT WILL
OCCUR BY 18-19Z...BUT SOME BEACHES MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR FOR
VERY LONG. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE AFTER 03Z WITH BASES SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL AND NOT GOING QUITE AS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT. ABOVE AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
318 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG REMAINING MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLING WITH
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK AND WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS INDEED QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AND THE LIMITED
EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THE WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY AND WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS...INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR SUNDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES
THEN WILL BE THE HOTTEST IN THE DESERTS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE HIGH DESERT AND UP TO 105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN
THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO ALL
AREAS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WIND PRONE
AREAS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ZONAL ONSHORE AND SOME IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW AT TIMES KEEPING WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE FAVORED ONSHORE PASSES. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

290900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200
FEET MSL WITH TOPS REACHING TO 2000 FEET AND VIS BELOW 5SM ALONG
INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ELEVATIONS. SCATTER OUT WILL
OCCUR BY 18-19Z...BUT SOME BEACHES MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR FOR
VERY LONG. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE AFTER 03Z WITH BASES SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL AND NOT GOING QUITE AS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT. ABOVE AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
318 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG REMAINING MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLING WITH
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK AND WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS INDEED QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AND THE LIMITED
EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THE WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY AND WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS...INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR SUNDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES
THEN WILL BE THE HOTTEST IN THE DESERTS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE HIGH DESERT AND UP TO 105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN
THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO ALL
AREAS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WIND PRONE
AREAS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ZONAL ONSHORE AND SOME IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW AT TIMES KEEPING WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE FAVORED ONSHORE PASSES. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

290900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200
FEET MSL WITH TOPS REACHING TO 2000 FEET AND VIS BELOW 5SM ALONG
INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ELEVATIONS. SCATTER OUT WILL
OCCUR BY 18-19Z...BUT SOME BEACHES MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR FOR
VERY LONG. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE AFTER 03Z WITH BASES SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL AND NOT GOING QUITE AS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT. ABOVE AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KSGX 291018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
318 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AND BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG REMAINING MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND
EARLY MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING COOLING WITH
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS NEXT WEEK AND WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WELL THE MARINE LAYER IS INDEED QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AND THE LIMITED
EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MILES INLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO CALIFORNIA
TODAY. THE WARMEST AIRMASS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY AND WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS...INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR SUNDAY TOO. TEMPERATURES
THEN WILL BE THE HOTTEST IN THE DESERTS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE HIGH DESERT AND UP TO 105 IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SWEEP INTO THE PAC NW MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN
THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO ALL
AREAS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST WIND PRONE
AREAS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ZONAL ONSHORE AND SOME IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW AT TIMES KEEPING WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE FAVORED ONSHORE PASSES. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

290900Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. BASES WILL BE AROUND 1200
FEET MSL WITH TOPS REACHING TO 2000 FEET AND VIS BELOW 5SM ALONG
INLAND EDGE OF CLOUDS BETWEEN THOSE ELEVATIONS. SCATTER OUT WILL
OCCUR BY 18-19Z...BUT SOME BEACHES MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR FOR
VERY LONG. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH ASHORE AFTER 03Z WITH BASES SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT AROUND 1000 FEET MSL AND NOT GOING QUITE AS FAR INLAND
OVERNIGHT. ABOVE AND BEYOND THE MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290953
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH MORE SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAININLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...JS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 290953
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH MORE SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAININLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...JS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290953
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM INLAND CONDITIONS...WHILE
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS
WAS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND INTO
THE SE PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY. BY SUNRISE...MOST COASTAL
AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO A WEAK EDDY ACROSS
THE SOCAL BIGHT. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING NEAR LAX INDICATED AN
INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT DEEP WHICH IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT
IN OVER THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE MARINE LAYER MUCH MORE SHALLOWER THAN IN WEEKS PAST...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT TO THE BEACHES A BIT FASTER...WITH A
FEW IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLEARING OUT. THIS
SAME STRATUS PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS S OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAININLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.

AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WARMING UP TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
TODAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUTOFF LOW JUST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
COOL MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES N OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE THE
VALLEYS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  EXPECT MODEST WIDESPREAD COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN
UP ALLOWING FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS MOST NIGHT
THROUGH MORNINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY LOCAL DRIZZLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTY COAST
AND VALLEYS...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...JS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KPSR 290852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
152 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 290852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
152 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 290852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
152 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 290852
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
152 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH...JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SKIES REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAINED SOMEWHAT MILD /MID 70S/ AS OF
0830Z.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THE INEVITABLE RETURN OF THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED AMONG TODAY`S 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TO STRENGTHENING
UPPER RIDGING AND STEADILY INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR /SO FAR/ THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON SUNDAY IN THE 105-108 RANGE.
BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY WITH
THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. WHILE RECORD HEAT IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS...PHOENIX WILL CERTAINLY COME CLOSE ON SUNDAY /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN BL MOISTURE /6-7 G/KG BL MIXING RATIOS/ ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM INDICATING AT LEAST A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SOME OF THE EXTENDED HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOING
TO INSERT CLIMO-LIKE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE
LOW. THIS MOISTURE CREEP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AS A RATHER DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PAC NW. NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW
BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS /WHILE STILL WARM COMPARED TO WHAT
WE`VE SEEN LATELY/...WILL BE ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JUNE. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...RECORDS...AND NORMALS FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

PHOENIX FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       112       99
SAT       106       114       99
SUN       107       109      100

YUMA    FORECAST...RECORD...NORMAL
FRI       102       115       99
SAT       104       120      100
SUN       103       113      100

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO
CLIMATE...LEINS




000
FXUS66 KMTR 290551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES FINISHED
OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INLAND TEMPS SEEING
THE GREATEST WARMING. OUR WARM SPOT TODAY WAS PARKFIELD IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. COASTAL
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DUE TO
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE.

THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WAS
SPARKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME INLAND
PENETRATION THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS. WHILE THE DISTRICT
WILL AWAKE TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLIER BURN OFF TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
IS ON THE WAY. TWO LOW THAT ARE SPINNING NEAR 39N 138W AND 40N
150W ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BEFORE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TO HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN-STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MEAN A RELATIVELY EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
IFR CIGS RETURNING BY 02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AT KMRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF
THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 290551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1051 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES FINISHED
OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INLAND TEMPS SEEING
THE GREATEST WARMING. OUR WARM SPOT TODAY WAS PARKFIELD IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. COASTAL
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DUE TO
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE.

THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WAS
SPARKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME INLAND
PENETRATION THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS. WHILE THE DISTRICT
WILL AWAKE TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLIER BURN OFF TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
IS ON THE WAY. TWO LOW THAT ARE SPINNING NEAR 39N 138W AND 40N
150W ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BEFORE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TO HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN-STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
MEAN A RELATIVELY EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
IFR CIGS RETURNING BY 02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AT KMRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF
THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290535
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KPSR 290535 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 290535
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO THE PHX AREA TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT THE SE CA TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS LIKELY. TIMING OF THE TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL...LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS66 KSGX 290423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING WITH
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURRED TODAY...AND IT WAS WARMER IN MOST
AREAS. SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD REACHED 71...WHICH IS THE FIRST
TIME THAT PLACE RECORDED A TEMPERATURE ABOVE 70 SINCE MAY 11.
LIKEWISE...ONTARIO AIRPORT REACHED 85...THE FIRST TIME THEY HAVE
BEEN ABOVE 80 SINCE MAY 11. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY
DUE TO THE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL
THEN BE ABLE TO SAY THAT PALM SPRINGS AIRPORT WILL HAVE HAD ITS
FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMP SINCE MAY 2.

REGARDING THE MARINE LAYER...THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW AROUND 1400-
1500 FT MSL...DOWN OVER 500 FT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LESS EXTENSIVE STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS THAN ON PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...BUT SOME LOCAL DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE PROBABLY WILL
NOT HAVE ANY FOG MAKING IT WEST TO THE COASTAL MESAS TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MARINE LAYER COULD POTENTIALLY GET SHALLOW
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOW VISIBILITIES ON SOME MESAS THEN BASED ON
WRF AND NAM4 SOUNDINGS. WITH HIGHEST PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ALOFT SATURDAY...THAT SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 105 AND VERY WARMEST INLAND EMPIRE
LOCATIONS REACHING 95. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MOST OF ITS EFFECTS TO OUR NORTH SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MINOR HERE...BUT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH MOST OF THE
LOWER HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHERLY CLOSED-LOW
SCENARIOS WE HAVE HAD A LOT OF IN MAY. THUS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
290330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES FROM 1200-1500 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 1900 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND PUSH AROUND 25 SM INLAND BY MID FRI MORNING. VIS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3SM...LOCALLY 1/2SM...WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE FRI
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FRI EVENING...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
HEIGHTS AND TIMING IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT




000
FXUS66 KSGX 290423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING SLIGHT COOLING WITH
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

GOOD AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURRED TODAY...AND IT WAS WARMER IN MOST
AREAS. SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD REACHED 71...WHICH IS THE FIRST
TIME THAT PLACE RECORDED A TEMPERATURE ABOVE 70 SINCE MAY 11.
LIKEWISE...ONTARIO AIRPORT REACHED 85...THE FIRST TIME THEY HAVE
BEEN ABOVE 80 SINCE MAY 11. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY
DUE TO THE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL
THEN BE ABLE TO SAY THAT PALM SPRINGS AIRPORT WILL HAVE HAD ITS
FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMP SINCE MAY 2.

REGARDING THE MARINE LAYER...THE INVERSION BASE IS NOW AROUND 1400-
1500 FT MSL...DOWN OVER 500 FT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LESS EXTENSIVE STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS THAN ON PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...BUT SOME LOCAL DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE PROBABLY WILL
NOT HAVE ANY FOG MAKING IT WEST TO THE COASTAL MESAS TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE MARINE LAYER COULD POTENTIALLY GET SHALLOW
ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOW VISIBILITIES ON SOME MESAS THEN BASED ON
WRF AND NAM4 SOUNDINGS. WITH HIGHEST PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ALOFT SATURDAY...THAT SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 105 AND VERY WARMEST INLAND EMPIRE
LOCATIONS REACHING 95. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MOST OF ITS EFFECTS TO OUR NORTH SINCE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MINOR HERE...BUT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME COOLING AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH MOST OF THE
LOWER HEIGHTS FURTHER NORTH INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHERLY CLOSED-LOW
SCENARIOS WE HAVE HAD A LOT OF IN MAY. THUS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
290330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES FROM 1200-1500 FT MSL
AND TOPS TO 1900 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND PUSH AROUND 25 SM INLAND BY MID FRI MORNING. VIS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3SM...LOCALLY 1/2SM...WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE FRI
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FRI EVENING...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
HEIGHTS AND TIMING IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSTO 290402
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 PM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures over the next few days as
high pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail
end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
A decent delta breeze continues once again tonight but slightly
weaker than last night. Marine layer is around 1400 feet deep.
Some low clouds may make it into the far western end of the delta
later tonight but no further progression inland is expected.

Tomorrow the interior will warm up again to mainly upper 80s to
mid 90s in the valley due to the ridge of high pressure over the
west coast. Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain look
possible again but for the most part they should stay out of the
forecast area. We should continue to get delta breezes through the
weekend to help cool off the interior each night.

On Saturday the ridge will begin to shift to the east and a though
of low pressure will be off the west coast. Dry conditions should
prevail and the winds should become slightly stronger during the
day. Temperatures will likely be close to Friday`s highs.

On Sunday a trough will begin to move into the area from the west
to cool temperatures around 5 degrees or more for most locations.
The latest GFS and NAM models are keeping the inland area dry
during the daytime. Some showers look possible Sunday night along
the coastal range and northern end of the Sacramento valley. The
NAM brings possible rain chances further south than the GFS for
Sunday night.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California late Sunday into Tuesday with the
strongest impulse late Sunday into Monday. Dynamics and moisture
look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling with
increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through Tuesday.

Weak ridging tries to move through Wednesday and Thursday but
models are a mixed bag at this point. We favored the ridge
pattern and kept the forecast dry and above average with
temperatures.    JClapp/mid crew


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl IFR cigs poss in far W Delta in ST til 18z Fri.
Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts thru Delta til 14z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 290402
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 PM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures over the next few days as
high pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail
end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
A decent delta breeze continues once again tonight but slightly
weaker than last night. Marine layer is around 1400 feet deep.
Some low clouds may make it into the far western end of the delta
later tonight but no further progression inland is expected.

Tomorrow the interior will warm up again to mainly upper 80s to
mid 90s in the valley due to the ridge of high pressure over the
west coast. Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain look
possible again but for the most part they should stay out of the
forecast area. We should continue to get delta breezes through the
weekend to help cool off the interior each night.

On Saturday the ridge will begin to shift to the east and a though
of low pressure will be off the west coast. Dry conditions should
prevail and the winds should become slightly stronger during the
day. Temperatures will likely be close to Friday`s highs.

On Sunday a trough will begin to move into the area from the west
to cool temperatures around 5 degrees or more for most locations.
The latest GFS and NAM models are keeping the inland area dry
during the daytime. Some showers look possible Sunday night along
the coastal range and northern end of the Sacramento valley. The
NAM brings possible rain chances further south than the GFS for
Sunday night.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California late Sunday into Tuesday with the
strongest impulse late Sunday into Monday. Dynamics and moisture
look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling with
increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through Tuesday.

Weak ridging tries to move through Wednesday and Thursday but
models are a mixed bag at this point. We favored the ridge
pattern and kept the forecast dry and above average with
temperatures.    JClapp/mid crew


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl IFR cigs poss in far W Delta in ST til 18z Fri.
Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts thru Delta til 14z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 290402
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 PM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures over the next few days as
high pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail
end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
A decent delta breeze continues once again tonight but slightly
weaker than last night. Marine layer is around 1400 feet deep.
Some low clouds may make it into the far western end of the delta
later tonight but no further progression inland is expected.

Tomorrow the interior will warm up again to mainly upper 80s to
mid 90s in the valley due to the ridge of high pressure over the
west coast. Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain look
possible again but for the most part they should stay out of the
forecast area. We should continue to get delta breezes through the
weekend to help cool off the interior each night.

On Saturday the ridge will begin to shift to the east and a though
of low pressure will be off the west coast. Dry conditions should
prevail and the winds should become slightly stronger during the
day. Temperatures will likely be close to Friday`s highs.

On Sunday a trough will begin to move into the area from the west
to cool temperatures around 5 degrees or more for most locations.
The latest GFS and NAM models are keeping the inland area dry
during the daytime. Some showers look possible Sunday night along
the coastal range and northern end of the Sacramento valley. The
NAM brings possible rain chances further south than the GFS for
Sunday night.

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California late Sunday into Tuesday with the
strongest impulse late Sunday into Monday. Dynamics and moisture
look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling with
increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through Tuesday.

Weak ridging tries to move through Wednesday and Thursday but
models are a mixed bag at this point. We favored the ridge
pattern and kept the forecast dry and above average with
temperatures.    JClapp/mid crew


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl IFR cigs poss in far W Delta in ST til 18z Fri.
Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts thru Delta til 14z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 290400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES FINISHED
OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INLAND TEMPS SEEING
THE GREATEST WARMING. OUR WARM SPOT TODAY WAS PARKFIELD IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. COASTAL
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DUE TO
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE.

THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WAS
SPARKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME INLAND
PENETRATION THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS. WHILE THE DISTRICT
WILL AWAKE TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLIER BURN OFF TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
IS ON THE WAY. TWO LOW THAT ARE SPINNING NEAR 39N 138W AND 40N
150W ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BEFORE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TO HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN-STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 290400
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
900 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES FINISHED
OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INLAND TEMPS SEEING
THE GREATEST WARMING. OUR WARM SPOT TODAY WAS PARKFIELD IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. COASTAL
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY EXPERIENCED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DUE TO
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE.

THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WAS
SPARKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME INLAND
PENETRATION THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS. WHILE THE DISTRICT
WILL AWAKE TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN EARLIER BURN OFF TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
IS ON THE WAY. TWO LOW THAT ARE SPINNING NEAR 39N 138W AND 40N
150W ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BEFORE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TO HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN-STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 290352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 290352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 290352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS NOW IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID-90 RANGE AT THIS HOUR...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
CLOSEST WEATHERMAKER TO OUR CWA IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AND SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...INTO CO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EVEN
STRONGER RIDGING...AND A WARMER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
LATEST BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 105-
108F RANGE BY SUNDAY...A BIG CHANGE FROM WHAT WE SAW MOST OF THE
MONTH OF MAY SO FAR. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION
PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR. 12Z DATA ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
VERSUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8
TEMPS IN A +25C TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS66 KLOX 290318
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
FROM AROUND SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST FROM
SANTA MONICA TO PALOS VERDES. THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1200
FEET DEEP AT LAX THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W
WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THRU FRI...THEN REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE CA COAST FROM THE E PAC. THE MAY GRAY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS INLAND ARE FORECAST TO BE BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
WARMEST VLYS...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SUN. HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THRU SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 290318
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
820 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND
FROM AROUND SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO THE L.A. COUNTY COAST FROM
SANTA MONICA TO PALOS VERDES. THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1200
FEET DEEP AT LAX THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND TO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W
WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THRU FRI...THEN REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE CA COAST FROM THE E PAC. THE MAY GRAY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
L.A. COUNTY MTNS AND IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS INLAND ARE FORECAST TO BE BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
WARMEST VLYS...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SUN. HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THRU SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE
ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 282347
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE MARINE LAYER HAD
COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1500 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
ONSHORE GRADIENTS HAD DECREASED A BIT. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO DELAY AN INLAND INFLUX OF MARINE CLOUDS.
EXPECT AN EARLY RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY EARLIER CLEARING ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BY 01Z...AND IFR CIGS BY 04Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 18-19Z FRIDAY. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING...19G26KT...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN AT KSFO ON THURSDAY AND CLEARING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
02Z WITH IFR CIGS BY 04Z. IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KHNX 282307
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
407 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 282307
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
407 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSTO 282232
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
332 PM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures over the next few days as
high pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail
end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure building over Norcal today with the ridge axis
shifting inland Fri/Sat as an upper trof approaches the coast by
Sun. Weakening short wave moving through the ridge will be spreading
some high cloudiness over Norcal into this evening...then clearing/
thinning of cloud cover overnight. Ft Ord Profiler shows the marine
layer about 1000 ft lower than Wed at this time. Increasing
subsidence from high pressure over the area is expected to suppress
the marine layer and limit the potential for stratus intrusion into
the valley for the next couple of mornings. With less of a marine
influence...weaker onshore gradients and ridging...a warming
trend is expected for the next couple of days. Onshore gradients
increase again on Sun with the approaching trof yielding cooler
temps and a chance of showers or T-storms over our Nrn zones.

Cumuliform cloudiness is developing in the Lassen Park area and near
the Crest of the Coastal range this afternoon due to differential
heating/topographic forcing/convergence. A similar pattern is
expected again on Fri afternoon. Can`t rule out a brief shower/
storm...and have added a small area of convection in these general
areas for the next couple of days per the HRRR/WRF.

The air mass is expected to warm to about 5 to 12 degrees above
normal in the Vly and 10-15 degrees above normal over the Siernev
Fri/Sat. Fri could be the warmest day over most of the CWA as the
upper ridge axis centers over the west coast. On Saturday...daytime
highs should drop a bit...except in the high Siernev where little
change is expected.

The upper level trof is forecast to move onto the coast by Sunday
afternoon or evening bringing a threat of showers to the coastal
range...Nrn mountains and possibly the Nrn Sac Valley. (In)Stability
progs suggest the possibility for showers/storms over the coast
range...but conditions are more stable farther east...and most
locations on Sun will just see some increased high cloud cover...
increased SW winds and lower daytime temperatures.  JHM

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California late Sunday into Tuesday with the
strongest impulse late Sunday into Monday. Dynamics and moisture
look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling with
increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through Tuesday.

Weak ridging tries to move through Wednesday and Thursday but
models are a mixed bag at this point. We favored the ridge
pattern and kept the forecast dry and above average with
temperatures.    JClapp/mid crew


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs poss vcnty Delta in ST til 18z Thu. Lcl
SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 282232
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
332 PM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Well above normal daytime temperatures over the next few days as
high pressure slides across the west coast. Cooler early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as the tail
end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure building over Norcal today with the ridge axis
shifting inland Fri/Sat as an upper trof approaches the coast by
Sun. Weakening short wave moving through the ridge will be spreading
some high cloudiness over Norcal into this evening...then clearing/
thinning of cloud cover overnight. Ft Ord Profiler shows the marine
layer about 1000 ft lower than Wed at this time. Increasing
subsidence from high pressure over the area is expected to suppress
the marine layer and limit the potential for stratus intrusion into
the valley for the next couple of mornings. With less of a marine
influence...weaker onshore gradients and ridging...a warming
trend is expected for the next couple of days. Onshore gradients
increase again on Sun with the approaching trof yielding cooler
temps and a chance of showers or T-storms over our Nrn zones.

Cumuliform cloudiness is developing in the Lassen Park area and near
the Crest of the Coastal range this afternoon due to differential
heating/topographic forcing/convergence. A similar pattern is
expected again on Fri afternoon. Can`t rule out a brief shower/
storm...and have added a small area of convection in these general
areas for the next couple of days per the HRRR/WRF.

The air mass is expected to warm to about 5 to 12 degrees above
normal in the Vly and 10-15 degrees above normal over the Siernev
Fri/Sat. Fri could be the warmest day over most of the CWA as the
upper ridge axis centers over the west coast. On Saturday...daytime
highs should drop a bit...except in the high Siernev where little
change is expected.

The upper level trof is forecast to move onto the coast by Sunday
afternoon or evening bringing a threat of showers to the coastal
range...Nrn mountains and possibly the Nrn Sac Valley. (In)Stability
progs suggest the possibility for showers/storms over the coast
range...but conditions are more stable farther east...and most
locations on Sun will just see some increased high cloud cover...
increased SW winds and lower daytime temperatures.  JHM

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California late Sunday into Tuesday with the
strongest impulse late Sunday into Monday. Dynamics and moisture
look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling with
increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through Tuesday.

Weak ridging tries to move through Wednesday and Thursday but
models are a mixed bag at this point. We favored the ridge
pattern and kept the forecast dry and above average with
temperatures.    JClapp/mid crew


&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs poss vcnty Delta in ST til 18z Thu. Lcl
SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 282206
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
306 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS HAS
DECREASED INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND
YOLLA BOLLYS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS OR EVENINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SHOWERS TO
ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH TO THE NORTH
WITH MOST OTHER AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN POINT RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
RIDGING LATE IN THE WEEK MEANING A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING WEATHER. AS A RESULT POPS TAPER TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
VIS` DROPPED TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING RISING TO VFR AROUND 7 AM.
HOWEVER...CIGS WERE ANOTHER STORY AS IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
AROUND 500 TO 900 FT WITH TOPS AVERAGING 2000 FT. A FEW POCKETS OF
VERY BRIEF CLEARING WAS SLOW TO HAPPEN (WHICH MAKES SENSE) AS AN
INVASIVE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION INHIBITING
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION...AND THEREFORE RESTRICTING MASS CLEARING.
YET...THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE OF LIMITED CLEARING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH CLOUDS "SORT OF" THIN OUT.
EXCERPTS FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION: "WITH THE FLOW REMAINING
ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO {REALLY} DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD
COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION
AND A FASTER DISSIPATION RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY." STRATUS DID NOT SPILL INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TODAY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO UKI OVERNIGHT. TAA/DUG


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INCREASING THEN PRESSURE GRADIENT.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. H5 HEIGHTS
NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR. 12Z DATA
ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER VERSUS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8 TEMPS IN A +25C
TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 102 TO 108 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...COMING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMAL HOWEVER WITH NO RAINFALL STILL ANYWHERE NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
WITH H5 LEVELS NEAR 582DM...WITH THIS GENERAL TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. H5 HEIGHTS
NEAR 588DM WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR. 12Z DATA
ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER VERSUS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND FURTHER HEATING OF THIS LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS PEAKING JUST ABOVE +10C AND H8 TEMPS IN A +25C
TO +29C RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM THICK CIRRUS IS NOTED EITHER IN WV
IMAGERY NOR FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT NEAR FULL INSOLATION
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO HINDRANCE TOWARDS A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS EXTREMELY SMALL YIELDING VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH A 102F TO 108F RANGE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WELL SHORT OF HEAT WARNINGS (AVERAGE FIRST 105F DAY FOR PHOENIX AND
YUMA IS MAY 23RD)...HOWEVER AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE REGION...A PRECAUTIONARY SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALERTING PARTNERS AND CUSTOMERS OF THE HOT
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT A MOISTURE SEEP WILL ADVECT
WESTWARD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE SAN CARLOS REGION OF SRN GILA
COUNTY...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS
STILL MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS
ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL BE COMMON. TIMING OF THE
TYPICAL DAILY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED VERSUS
NORMAL...AND SIMILAR TO THE TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DISTRICT...NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SRN GILA COUNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS66 KSGX 282059
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
ONSHORE WITH 5.4 MB SAN-DAG AND 5.1 MB SAN-IPL. THIS IS PRODUCING
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...MAINLY
ON THE COASTAL MESAS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

282030...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z
BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
BACK TO THE BEACHES MIDDAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE
RETURN OF THE OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN THIS EVENING IS MODERATE-
HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL



000
FXUS66 KSGX 282059
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
ONSHORE WITH 5.4 MB SAN-DAG AND 5.1 MB SAN-IPL. THIS IS PRODUCING
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD
RESULT IN PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...MAINLY
ON THE COASTAL MESAS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

282030...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET
MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z
BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
BACK TO THE BEACHES MIDDAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE
RETURN OF THE OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN THIS EVENING IS MODERATE-
HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KMTR 282052
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
152 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 282052
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
152 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:52 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
APPARENT ON THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE FORT ORD
PROFILER IS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY COMPRESSING BENEATH
THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE COMPRESSING MARINE
LAYER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS WIDE SPREAD TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL
FILL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAYS. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING
THAN IT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
NIGHT TIME COASTAL DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH BAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 282045
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 282045
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 282043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 282043
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS65 KREV 282032 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING TAHOE
AND PYRAMID.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 282032 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING TAHOE
AND PYRAMID.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 282032 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING TAHOE
AND PYRAMID.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 282032 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING TAHOE
AND PYRAMID.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 282029
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 282029
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281954
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1254 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281954
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1254 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281954
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1254 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281954
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1254 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A
COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS
DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST. ALSO THERE ARE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SIERRA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THIS LAST WEEK OF MAY...A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER THE CREST FOR
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW A FEW
AREAS OF QPF AND RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
FURTHER LIMITED BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING SUNDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
TICK DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY.

AFTER A WARM WEEKEND...EXPECT JUNE TO BEGIN WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING. NO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFF THE WEST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL MAINLY KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING TUE AND INTO NEXT THU AND WILL MAINLY
REINFORCE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR FROM THE COAST AS A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
DOES SOMEWHAT DECREASE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST...THRU 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281804
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1104 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AROUND 2KFT DEEP HAS RESULTED IN LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BURN-OFF OCCURRING INLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT- WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED THE BURN-OFF OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY 20Z OVER THIS REGION ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW CIGS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT...YET MAY BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE MONTEREY TERMINAL.
EXPECTING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR/MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MVFR CIGS RETURN
AFTER ABOUT 01Z WITH LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...EARLIER BURN-OFF HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT
AT THIS TIME...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN OVER KMRY
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 00Z WITH LOWERING CIGS
LIKELY BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...A WESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO
7 FEET WITH A PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SWELL AND
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281745
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281745
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281745
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281745
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1740Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1250 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WILL
SHRINK AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MORE
LIMITED FOR VALLEYS. HEIGHT OF CIGS MAY DIP TO LIFR/VLIFR FOR
CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION...EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO LOW MVFR/ IFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN KBUR/KVNY WITH A 40% CHANCE CIGS WILL AFFECT THE SITES AFTER 12Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. CIGS MAY DELAY CLEARING BY AN
HOUR OR TWO FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP
TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIMES. 20% CHANCE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHC THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KSTO 281700
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 AM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the next
few days as high pressure slides across the west coast.  Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as
the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure building over Norcal today with the ridge axis
shifting inland Fri/Sat as an upper trof approaches the coast by
Sun. Weakening short wave moving through the ridge will be spreading
some high cloudiness over Norcal today...then clearing/thinning of
cloud cover tonite. Ft Ord Profiler and KOAK RAOB this morning
showed the marine layer had lowered to around 2200 ft from
yesterday. Some stratus briefly advected into the Srn Sac Vly this
morning...but has now dissipated. During the next couple of
mornings...increasing subsidence from high pressure is expected to
continue to suppress the marine layer and limit the potential for
intrusion into the valley. With less of a marine influence and
weaker onshore gradients a warming trend is expected for the next
couple of days. Onshore gradients increase again on Sun with the
approaching trof yielding cooler temps and a chance of showers over
our nrn zones.

Instability progs high-lite the usual spots...Lassen Park and near
the Crest of the Coastal range the next couple of days...where
topographic forcing/convergence is likely to cause cumuliform
cloudiness and possibly brief convection. Have added a small area of
convection in these general areas for the next couple of days per
the HRRR and WRF.


.Previous Discussion...

Overall airmass warms under the ridge with daytime highs today
forecast to run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Friday looks to
be the warmest day as upper ridge axis centers over the west coast.
On Saturday...daytime highs drop down just a bit as the upper ridge
axis shifts east of the state in response to an eastern Pacific
trough forecast to approach the coast. This system is forecast to
move onto the coast by Sunday afternoon or evening bringing a threat
of showers to the coast range...the northern mountains and possibly
the northern Sacramento valley. Stability progs show possibly
enough instability over the coast range for thunderstorms but
conditions are more stable farther east so removed afternoon/evening
thunderstorm threat there. Most locations Sunday will just see some
increased high cloud cover...increased southwest winds and about a 5
to 10 degree drop in daytime temperatures.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California Monday into Tuesday. Dynamics and
moisture look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling
with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period.

Weak ridging moves through Wednesday followed by weak upper
troughing Thursday. Slight warming of the AMS depicted through
midweek by models with mid to upper 80s for highs in the Central
and mainly 60s to around 80 for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs in ST vcnty Carquinez Strait/Delta til
18-19z Thu and again from 08z-19z Fri. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd
25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSTO 281700
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 AM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the next
few days as high pressure slides across the west coast.  Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as
the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure building over Norcal today with the ridge axis
shifting inland Fri/Sat as an upper trof approaches the coast by
Sun. Weakening short wave moving through the ridge will be spreading
some high cloudiness over Norcal today...then clearing/thinning of
cloud cover tonite. Ft Ord Profiler and KOAK RAOB this morning
showed the marine layer had lowered to around 2200 ft from
yesterday. Some stratus briefly advected into the Srn Sac Vly this
morning...but has now dissipated. During the next couple of
mornings...increasing subsidence from high pressure is expected to
continue to suppress the marine layer and limit the potential for
intrusion into the valley. With less of a marine influence and
weaker onshore gradients a warming trend is expected for the next
couple of days. Onshore gradients increase again on Sun with the
approaching trof yielding cooler temps and a chance of showers over
our nrn zones.

Instability progs high-lite the usual spots...Lassen Park and near
the Crest of the Coastal range the next couple of days...where
topographic forcing/convergence is likely to cause cumuliform
cloudiness and possibly brief convection. Have added a small area of
convection in these general areas for the next couple of days per
the HRRR and WRF.


.Previous Discussion...

Overall airmass warms under the ridge with daytime highs today
forecast to run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Friday looks to
be the warmest day as upper ridge axis centers over the west coast.
On Saturday...daytime highs drop down just a bit as the upper ridge
axis shifts east of the state in response to an eastern Pacific
trough forecast to approach the coast. This system is forecast to
move onto the coast by Sunday afternoon or evening bringing a threat
of showers to the coast range...the northern mountains and possibly
the northern Sacramento valley. Stability progs show possibly
enough instability over the coast range for thunderstorms but
conditions are more stable farther east so removed afternoon/evening
thunderstorm threat there. Most locations Sunday will just see some
increased high cloud cover...increased southwest winds and about a 5
to 10 degree drop in daytime temperatures.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California Monday into Tuesday. Dynamics and
moisture look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling
with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period.

Weak ridging moves through Wednesday followed by weak upper
troughing Thursday. Slight warming of the AMS depicted through
midweek by models with mid to upper 80s for highs in the Central
and mainly 60s to around 80 for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs in ST vcnty Carquinez Strait/Delta til
18-19z Thu and again from 08z-19z Fri. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd
25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS66 KLOX 281632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/1140Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR LIFR AT KPRB. CIGS WILL SCOUR OUT WITHIN +/-1
HOUR FROM TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL COME
IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER FOR COASTAL TAFS.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR
KSBUR AND KVNY TODAY. 30 PERCENT CHANCE  FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR VALLEY
TAFS THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR CIGS OR LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR COASTAL TAFS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR/KVNY TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS SCOURING OUT +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF
TIME.  A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 13Z. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT OCCUR
THIS MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORING. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 10Z FRI
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MARINE LYR SHRANK TO AROUND 2200 FT IN THE
LA BASIN TO AROUND 1500 FT NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS COMBINED
WITH A VERY SLIGHT OFFSHORE TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THOUGH NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME BEACHES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS WE`RE PRETTY WELL LOCKED INTO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/1140Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR LIFR AT KPRB. CIGS WILL SCOUR OUT WITHIN +/-1
HOUR FROM TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL COME
IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER FOR COASTAL TAFS.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR
KSBUR AND KVNY TODAY. 30 PERCENT CHANCE  FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR VALLEY
TAFS THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR CIGS OR LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR COASTAL TAFS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR/KVNY TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS SCOURING OUT +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF
TIME.  A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 13Z. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT OCCUR
THIS MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORING. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 10Z FRI
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/830 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
STARTED AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NOTED AT
THE BUOYS. EXPECT THE SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 281626
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXTEND
INLAND ONLY TO THE VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE MTNS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS/FOG REACHING RAMONA AND ALPINE. THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 2500 FT DEEP WITH A
STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION COULD
DELAY CLEARING UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL RESTRICT THE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO INCREASE
EVERYWHERE...WITH THE GREATEST INCREASES INLAND. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SAT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN 100 TO 105.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...AND INCREASING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS. THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
DESERT AREAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

281530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 1800 FEET MSL AND
TOPS AROUND 2800 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY...BUT MAINLY BKN-OVC AT KSAN TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES
DOWN TO NEAR 900 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET...WITH LOCAL
VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 29/03Z BUT REMAIN WEST OF KONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE AT KSAN TODAY IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL BE MOST APPARENT INLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PRESENT IN ALL OF OUR AREAS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAYS. THE
FORT ORD PROFILER IS INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAS REACHED
A DEPTH OF 2000 FEET WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEP MARINE LAYER AND GENTLE ONSHORE
FLOW SPELLS ANOTHER LATE CLOUD BURN OFF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
COASTAL AREA SUCH AS MONTEREY UNLIKELY TO SEE THE SUN TODAY.

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 40N 150W THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH MODELS ALSO DRIVE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL
DRIZZLE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY WITH QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS
QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:39 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY...OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
WHICH ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER VERSUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE AND
VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER ON THE HORIZON...FULL INSOLATION AND DEEP
MIXING WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOME 2F-5F WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS IN A
FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015/
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 281541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
WHICH ALSO SHOWED 1C-2C OF WARMING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER VERSUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE AND
VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVER ON THE HORIZON...FULL INSOLATION AND DEEP
MIXING WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOME 2F-5F WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS IN A
FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015/
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281423 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
722 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281423 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
722 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281423 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
722 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 281423 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
722 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE
TOWARDS SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH
BASES 300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
RUC/WRF GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
17-19Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 281221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
521 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM ADT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE TOWARDS
SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH BASES
300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH GRADUALLY
LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
521 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM ADT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE TOWARDS
SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH BASES
300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH GRADUALLY
LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
521 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM ADT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE TOWARDS
SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH BASES
300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH GRADUALLY
LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281221
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
521 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 PM ADT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING MOISTURE TOWARDS
SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH BASES
300-1000 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE PUSHING FOR SIMILAR TIMING TO YESTERDAY... WITH GRADUALLY
LIFTING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT 01-03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW 10- 16KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEARSHORE.

VICINITY OF KSFO... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z. ONSHORE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 01-02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 05:00 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 281156 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
455 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. EXPECT WINDS AT KIPL AND KBLH TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT
ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...
HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281145
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/1140Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1200 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH IFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR LIFR AT KPRB. CIGS WILL SCOUR OUT WITHIN +/-1
HOUR FROM TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL COME
IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER FOR COASTAL TAFS.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH IFR OR LOW MVFR
CIGS ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS FOR
KSBUR AND KVNY TODAY. 30 PERCENT CHANCE  FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR VALLEY
TAFS THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR CIGS OR LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR COASTAL TAFS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR/KVNY TONIGHT AFTER 09Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS SCOURING OUT +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF
TIME.  A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT CHC OF
5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 13Z. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT OCCUR
THIS MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORING. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 10Z FRI
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

28/315 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORNINGS. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 281053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 281053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 281053
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
353 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:53 AM PDT THURSDAY...MARINE LAYER STILL
AROUND 2000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING WELL
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. COMPARING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
REVEALS SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS SO FAR
THIS MORNING INTO THE DELTA AND UP NEAR PACHECO PASS. ANYWAY AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW THE INCOMING RIDGE IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
ROBUST AND NOT COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION ONSHORE GRADIENTS STILL REMAIN STRONG AT 2.5
SFO-SAC WITH HOWLING WINDS FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO TRAVIS. NONE OF
THIS POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TODAY...EVEN FOR INLAND AREAS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA/CONCORD AND LIVERMORE ALL
REMAINS BELOW 80 DEGREES. ANYWAY...IT SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME. SCANNING
THE HILLS FOR HINTS OF WARMING AND MT TAM IS NOW 62 VERSUS 56 LAST
NIGHT BUT OFTEN TIMES WE`D LIKE TO SEE SOME OF THE RIDGES IN THE
HILLS CLOSER TO 70 TO BRING DOWN SOME TOASTY AFTERNOON AIR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRI AND SAT AND THE FORECAST
THEME WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND BUT
REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WITH SOME 80S AND ONLY TOUCHING
90 FOR PLACES LIKE PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOL AND NOT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE BEACHES MOST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ANY
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL JUST COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER AND
INDUCE SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE/FOG.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STRONGER SEABREEZE SHOULD BE NOTED AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE
MENDOCINO COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ECMWF/GFS TRENDS SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM POINT REYES NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE MID
RANGE. NO REAL PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BUT COOLING
WILL OCCUR FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE PATTERN ZONAL OR CYCLONIC BEHIND THAT
FRONT SUGGESTING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE START OF JUNE.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET ANY
TYPE OF PATTERN SHIFT AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE. COASTAL BUOYS
STILL SHOW SST AROUND 51 DEGREES...SINCE THEY DROPPED IN EARLY
APRIL OUR PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTABLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY... OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE... AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WINDS POSSIBLE. PREDOMINATELY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KEKA 281050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS
BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO BE LIFTING THE
MARINE LAYER A BIT...VERY LITTLE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING. OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AT THE
COAST. DESPITE THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING THERE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE BY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. HAVE LEFT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. SATURDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
EITHER DAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY
COUNTY. AT THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER MAY SHRINK A BIT..BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.

SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DO A BETTER JOB OF BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYSTEM MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SO THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT STILL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MU CAPE AND
FORCING TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. AT THE COAST THIS MAY MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT AND THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
CLEARING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MONDAY THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AROUND
MID DAY...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO
DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION AND A FASTER DISSIPATION
RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI THIS MORNING OR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS OR LESS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO...PZZ475. GRANTED IT IS MARGINAL...BUT
SATISFIES OUR CRITERIA BASED ON WAVE STEEPNESS. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS DRIVING THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BUSTS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE HAVE
BEEN A COUPLE OF LONGER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM AS
WELL. ONE FROM THE SW AROUND 2-3 FT IN THE 12-22 SECOND BANDS AND
ANOTHER FROM THE WNW AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE 10-16 BANDS. THESE
LONGER PERIOD GROUPS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN FALL OFF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 281050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS
BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO BE LIFTING THE
MARINE LAYER A BIT...VERY LITTLE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING. OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AT THE
COAST. DESPITE THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING THERE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE BY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. HAVE LEFT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. SATURDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
EITHER DAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY
COUNTY. AT THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER MAY SHRINK A BIT..BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.

SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DO A BETTER JOB OF BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYSTEM MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SO THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT STILL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MU CAPE AND
FORCING TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. AT THE COAST THIS MAY MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT AND THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
CLEARING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MONDAY THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AROUND
MID DAY...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO
DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION AND A FASTER DISSIPATION
RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI THIS MORNING OR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS OR LESS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO...PZZ475. GRANTED IT IS MARGINAL...BUT
SATISFIES OUR CRITERIA BASED ON WAVE STEEPNESS. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS DRIVING THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BUSTS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE HAVE
BEEN A COUPLE OF LONGER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM AS
WELL. ONE FROM THE SW AROUND 2-3 FT IN THE 12-22 SECOND BANDS AND
ANOTHER FROM THE WNW AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE 10-16 BANDS. THESE
LONGER PERIOD GROUPS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN FALL OFF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 281050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS
BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO BE LIFTING THE
MARINE LAYER A BIT...VERY LITTLE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING. OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AT THE
COAST. DESPITE THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING THERE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE BY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. HAVE LEFT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. SATURDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
EITHER DAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY
COUNTY. AT THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER MAY SHRINK A BIT..BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.

SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DO A BETTER JOB OF BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYSTEM MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SO THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT STILL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MU CAPE AND
FORCING TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. AT THE COAST THIS MAY MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT AND THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
CLEARING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MONDAY THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AROUND
MID DAY...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO
DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION AND A FASTER DISSIPATION
RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI THIS MORNING OR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS OR LESS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO...PZZ475. GRANTED IT IS MARGINAL...BUT
SATISFIES OUR CRITERIA BASED ON WAVE STEEPNESS. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS DRIVING THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BUSTS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE HAVE
BEEN A COUPLE OF LONGER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM AS
WELL. ONE FROM THE SW AROUND 2-3 FT IN THE 12-22 SECOND BANDS AND
ANOTHER FROM THE WNW AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE 10-16 BANDS. THESE
LONGER PERIOD GROUPS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN FALL OFF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 281050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS
BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA. IT MAY ALSO BE LIFTING THE
MARINE LAYER A BIT...VERY LITTLE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS
MORNING. OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IN GENERAL SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AT THE
COAST. DESPITE THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING THERE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY
ALPS SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE...HOWEVER
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE BY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. HAVE LEFT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. SATURDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THE INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
EITHER DAY AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY
COUNTY. AT THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER MAY SHRINK A BIT..BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.

SUNDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DO A BETTER JOB OF BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYSTEM MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SO THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT STILL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MU CAPE AND
FORCING TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER. AT THE COAST THIS MAY MIX
OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT AND THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
CLEARING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. MONDAY THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND AS THE WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AROUND
MID DAY...HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW REMAINING ONSHORE AND NOTHING TO
DISRUPT THE MARINE INVERSION EXPECT STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL RIVER
VALLEYS BY MID EVENING. THE LAYER SHOULD COMPRESS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LESS INLAND INTRUSION AND A FASTER DISSIPATION
RATE IN THE NORTH COAST RIVER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. STRATUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO KUKI THIS MORNING OR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6 FT AT 7 SECONDS OR LESS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO...PZZ475. GRANTED IT IS MARGINAL...BUT
SATISFIES OUR CRITERIA BASED ON WAVE STEEPNESS. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS DRIVING THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BUSTS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE HAVE
BEEN A COUPLE OF LONGER PERIOD WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM AS
WELL. ONE FROM THE SW AROUND 2-3 FT IN THE 12-22 SECOND BANDS AND
ANOTHER FROM THE WNW AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE 10-16 BANDS. THESE
LONGER PERIOD GROUPS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN FALL OFF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KSTO 281030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the next
few days as high pressure slides across the west coast.  Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as
the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure moving in over the west coast bringing fair skies
over the forecast area this morning. Delta breeze just slightly
weaker than 24 hours ago but marine layer much more shallow as
upper ridge develops so not expecting a significant intrusion of
coastal stratus into the valley again this morning although parts
of the western delta will see some stratus. With subsidence under
the ridge...mountain shower or thunderstorm development is not
expected today and this is expected to remain the case over the
next few days. Overall airmass warms under the ridge with daytime
highs today forecast to run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Friday looks to be the warmest day as upper ridge axis centers
over the west coast. On Saturday...daytime highs drop down just a
bit as the upper ridge axis shifts east of the state in response
to an eastern Pacific trough forecast to approach the coast. This
system is forecast to move onto the coast by Sunday afternoon or
evening bringing a threat of showers to the coast range...the
northern mountains and possibly the northern Sacramento valley.
Stability proggs show possibly enough instability over the coast
range for thunderstorms but conditions are more stable farther
east so removed afternoon/evening thunderstorm threat there. Most
locations Sunday will just see some increased high cloud
cover...increased southwest winds and about a 5 to 10 degree drop
in daytime temperatures.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California Monday into Tuesday. Dynamics and
moisture look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling
with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period.

Weak ridging moves through Wednesday followed by weak upper
troughing Thursday. Slight warming of the AMS depicted through
midweek by models with mid to upper 80s for highs in the Central
and mainly 60s to around 80 for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs poss vcnty Delta in ST til 18z Thu. Lcl
SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 281030
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT Thu May 28 2015

.Synopsis...
Daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the next
few days as high pressure slides across the west coast.  Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northern Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains as
the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure moving in over the west coast bringing fair skies
over the forecast area this morning. Delta breeze just slightly
weaker than 24 hours ago but marine layer much more shallow as
upper ridge develops so not expecting a significant intrusion of
coastal stratus into the valley again this morning although parts
of the western delta will see some stratus. With subsidence under
the ridge...mountain shower or thunderstorm development is not
expected today and this is expected to remain the case over the
next few days. Overall airmass warms under the ridge with daytime
highs today forecast to run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Friday looks to be the warmest day as upper ridge axis centers
over the west coast. On Saturday...daytime highs drop down just a
bit as the upper ridge axis shifts east of the state in response
to an eastern Pacific trough forecast to approach the coast. This
system is forecast to move onto the coast by Sunday afternoon or
evening bringing a threat of showers to the coast range...the
northern mountains and possibly the northern Sacramento valley.
Stability proggs show possibly enough instability over the coast
range for thunderstorms but conditions are more stable farther
east so removed afternoon/evening thunderstorm threat there. Most
locations Sunday will just see some increased high cloud
cover...increased southwest winds and about a 5 to 10 degree drop
in daytime temperatures.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models continue to forecast several short wave troughs through
northern portions of California Monday into Tuesday. Dynamics and
moisture look limited with main impact being synoptic cooling
with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty southwest to west winds
expected through the Delta and over higher mountain terrain. A
slight chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms are possible
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period.

Weak ridging moves through Wednesday followed by weak upper
troughing Thursday. Slight warming of the AMS depicted through
midweek by models with mid to upper 80s for highs in the Central
and mainly 60s to around 80 for the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Aviation...

Upr rdg blds ovr the fcst area nxt 24 hrs. Mnly VFR conds for Intr
NorCal exc lcl MVFR/IFR cigs poss vcnty Delta in ST til 18z Thu. Lcl
SWly sfc wnd gsts to arnd 25 kts poss thru Delta.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 281021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND TODAY
WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND ARRIVING TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH, BUT WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SPARSE AND MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION NOT
EXPECTED, WE DIDN`T ADD MENTION OF PRECIP TO NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV AT THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NEVADA, BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED
MIXING, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MANY WESTERN NV
VALLEYS. DESPITE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS, FURTHER LOW LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY.
THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES BRUSHING
AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WITH THE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
LITTLE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW, HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE, BUT EVEN
THEN, IT MAY BE FARTHER EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THE OTHER
CHANGE MADE SUNDAY WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS STRONGER SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT. COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 40-45 MPH IF THESE RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH
SOME MOISTURE NORTH OF I-80 A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, AS WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A
RIDGE, WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC HAVE A WEAK LOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS SOME REPRESENTATION OF THIS LOW IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO HAVE LIMITED ANY WARMUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIMITED FOG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING 11-14Z OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY FLAT CUMULUS AND BASES NEAR 8 KFT
AGL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

28/315 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORNINGS. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

28/315 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORNINGS. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

28/315 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORNINGS. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 281014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

28/315 AM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER ZONES THIS MORNING. 70 PERCENT CHANCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORNINGS. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KSGX 281010
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
310 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO
THE COASTAL AREAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A COOLING TREND AND MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF COASTAL DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WIDESPREAD MARINE STRATUS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE MARINE INVERSION WILL
GRADUALLY SHRINK THOUGH THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PEAKING AT ABOUT 588 DM PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVERYWHERE...WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED WARMING INLAND. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH DESERT
WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS
BETWEEN 100 TO 105 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WELCOME RELIEF ARRIVES
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL PICK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY THROUGH THE ONSHORE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS AND COASTAL
SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID
NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...

280900...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL AND TOPS TO 3000 FEET. VIS
REDUCTIONS 3-5SM ON HIGHER COASTAL MESAS AND ALONG INLAND EDGE OF
CLOUDS. SCATTER OUT IS EXPECTED BY 18-19Z. LOWER CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 1000 FEET MSL WILL RETURN AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
NOT AS FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A NIGHT TO MORNING MARINE LAYER AT THE
COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGLY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 281005
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A NIGHT TO MORNING MARINE LAYER AT THE
COAST AND SOME VALLEYS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY
TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)... THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1300
FEET AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SQUASHES IT DOWN. GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THESE TWO THINGS
ARE SLOWING THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE VLYS WILL ONLY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS. GOING FOR A TOTAL CLEARING DAY BUT THIS IS NOT
FOR SURE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN
WHICH WILL MAKE CLEARING HARDER. RIGHT NOW THINK THE OFFSHORE TRENDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT IT. MARINE LAYER IS LOWER AND STRONGER
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL THE COAST AND THE
SANTA YNEZ VLY LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PASO ROBLES AREA
FROM THE SALINAS VLY. THE BIGGEST EFFECT OF THE SHRINKING MARINE
LAYER WILL BE THE WARMING IN THE VLYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. THE BUILDING HGTS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE DESERTS TO REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WHILE THERE MAY BE
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING ACROSS THE COAST IT WILL NOT BE THAT
NOTICABLE AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE A LARGE MODERATING EFFECT.

REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND
INLAND TEMPS WILL JUMP AGAIN. LOOK FOR 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING. THE VLYS WILL ALMOST ALL BE THE 80S WITH A COUPLE 90 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
THE SBA SOUTH COAST LOW CLOUD FREE. THE VLYS WILL ALSO BE LARGLY
LOW CLOUD FREE (SAVE THE SANTA YNEZ VLY WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN)
ONLY THE SAN GABRIEL VLY HAS A DECENT CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS.

NOT MUCH REAL CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT NOT IN TIME TO AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIR MASS
WILL START OFF A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING FOR THE MAX TEMPS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BEACHES AND THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES...10 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM LAX TO THE USC CAMPUS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE NEXT 7.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND A TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS
TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE
INTO THE VLYS IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE DAY WITH THE
BIGGEST COOL DOWN.

THE TROF MOVES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KICK OFF A DECREASE IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KHNX 281000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION. A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL CA. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
SATRUDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND THAT IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND EVENT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

MEANWHILE...A FEW SHOWERS BROKE OUT YDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR
AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY...A CAPPING INVERSION RESULTING FROM WARMING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WHILE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH NORTHWESTERN CA BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE PAC NW ON MONDAY THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL BRING
SYNOPTIC COOLING AND INCREASED ONSHORE P-GRADS TO OUR AREA
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BELOW
THE PASSES IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A COOLING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 19Z THURS AND 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 281000
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION. A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL CA. THE 06Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
SATRUDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND THAT IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND EVENT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

MEANWHILE...A FEW SHOWERS BROKE OUT YDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR
AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY...A CAPPING INVERSION RESULTING FROM WARMING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WHILE A FEW
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH NORTHWESTERN CA BY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE PAC NW ON MONDAY THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL BRING
SYNOPTIC COOLING AND INCREASED ONSHORE P-GRADS TO OUR AREA
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BELOW
THE PASSES IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A COOLING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
BETWEEN 19Z THURS AND 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988

KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS65 KPSR 280953
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280953
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280632
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0600Z

AT 0544Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1600 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL COAST AND VLY TAFS BY
14Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG HGT FCST
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN IFR FCST NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN BURN OFF TIME BUT 30 PERCENT
CHC FCST OF SCT CONDS IS OFF BY +/- ONE HOUR.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CIGS ARRIVING BY 12Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHEN. A 30 PERCENT CHC OF A 21Z BURN OFF AND A 20 PERCENT
CHC OF 5SM HZ CONDS AT THE TERMINAL FROM 16Z-23Z.

KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CIGS
ARRIVING AT 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BE
OVC008 WHEN THEY ARRIVE. A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A 19Z TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...

27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS65 KREV 280551
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1051 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE ZONE FORECAST WORDING.

A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IS
PRODUCING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER PERSHING AND EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST PERSHING AND SOUTHEAST HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES, WITH LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATING SOME IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING NEAR THE BORDER OF THE TWO COUNTIES. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BRINGING THE END TO
THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER NORTHEAST PERSHING COUNTY.
SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK INSTABILITY STILL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HAWTHORNE AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TOMORROW, AGAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF SUSANVILLE AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP, KEEPING
ANY STORMS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. BY SATURDAY, WE
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN
THE SIERRA.

AS HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AND FOLKS BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT SUMMER, PEOPLE MAY THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO COOL OFF IN LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURE IN
LAKE TAHOE IS ABOUT 53 DEGREES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS.
HYPOTHERMIA IS A REAL THREAT DURING EARLY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
AREN`T EXPECTING IT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. DJ

AVIATION...

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT.

FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, FROM AROUND 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WEST. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 280551
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1051 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO CLEAN UP THE ZONE FORECAST WORDING.

A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IS
PRODUCING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER PERSHING AND EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST PERSHING AND SOUTHEAST HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES, WITH LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATING SOME IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING NEAR THE BORDER OF THE TWO COUNTIES. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BRINGING THE END TO
THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER NORTHEAST PERSHING COUNTY.
SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK INSTABILITY STILL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HAWTHORNE AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TOMORROW, AGAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF SUSANVILLE AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP, KEEPING
ANY STORMS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. BY SATURDAY, WE
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN
THE SIERRA.

AS HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AND FOLKS BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT SUMMER, PEOPLE MAY THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO COOL OFF IN LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURE IN
LAKE TAHOE IS ABOUT 53 DEGREES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS.
HYPOTHERMIA IS A REAL THREAT DURING EARLY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
AREN`T EXPECTING IT. HOON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. DJ

AVIATION...

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT.

FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, FROM AROUND 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WEST. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KPSR 280528
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 280528
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280528
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 280528
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS66 KMTR 280516
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT ON ONSHORE
WINDS. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
WATERS OTHERWISE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280516
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT ON ONSHORE
WINDS. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
WATERS OTHERWISE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 280516
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT ON ONSHORE
WINDS. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
WATERS OTHERWISE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 280516
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1016 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:57 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED
MORE AND IS ROUGHLY 1500-1700 FEET DEEP. IFR COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY
BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:51 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT ON ONSHORE
WINDS. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
WATERS OTHERWISE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280421
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
921 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs around 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler early next
week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains
as the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
A decent delta breeze continues once again tonight. Marine layer
has been lowering so I don`t think much if any low clouds will
spread locally into the Sacramento region towards morning again.
The low clouds will likely only make it into the western end of
the delta tonight.

Tomorrow we will start to notice temperatures getting warmer...
warming up into the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley...with
continued warming for Friday as a high pressure ridge builds over
the west coast. Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain look
possible both days. We should continue to get delta breezes
through the end of the week to help cool off the interior each
night but low clouds will likely remain confined to the
Bay Area.

On Saturday the ridge will begin to shift to the east and a though
of low pressure will be off the west coast. Dry conditions should
prevail and the winds should become slightly stronger during the
day. Temperatures will likely be close to Friday`s highs but may
be slightly low in the delta and areas close to the delta.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

A decent waves moves across Interior NorCal late Sunday into
Tuesday. Dynamics and moisture look limited with the main impact
appearing to be synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow.
Locally gusty southwest winds expected through the Delta and over
higher mountain terrain Sunday and Monday before shifting more
west-northwesterly Tuesday. Potential showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period. High
temperatures begin to warm midweek as upper troughing shifts east
and EPAC ridging builds inland.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions over the area through Thursday. Local
IFR/MVFR in the western Delta from marine stratus. Local gusts to
35 kt in Delta overnight into Thursday morning. A few
afternoon/early evening isolated showers possible over Lassen Park
and along the Sierra crest south of KTVL Thursday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 280421
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
921 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs around 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler early next
week with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains
as the tail end of a Pacific trough brushes through.

&&

.Discussion...
A decent delta breeze continues once again tonight. Marine layer
has been lowering so I don`t think much if any low clouds will
spread locally into the Sacramento region towards morning again.
The low clouds will likely only make it into the western end of
the delta tonight.

Tomorrow we will start to notice temperatures getting warmer...
warming up into the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley...with
continued warming for Friday as a high pressure ridge builds over
the west coast. Isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain look
possible both days. We should continue to get delta breezes
through the end of the week to help cool off the interior each
night but low clouds will likely remain confined to the
Bay Area.

On Saturday the ridge will begin to shift to the east and a though
of low pressure will be off the west coast. Dry conditions should
prevail and the winds should become slightly stronger during the
day. Temperatures will likely be close to Friday`s highs but may
be slightly low in the delta and areas close to the delta.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

A decent waves moves across Interior NorCal late Sunday into
Tuesday. Dynamics and moisture look limited with the main impact
appearing to be synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow.
Locally gusty southwest winds expected through the Delta and over
higher mountain terrain Sunday and Monday before shifting more
west-northwesterly Tuesday. Potential showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period. High
temperatures begin to warm midweek as upper troughing shifts east
and EPAC ridging builds inland.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions over the area through Thursday. Local
IFR/MVFR in the western Delta from marine stratus. Local gusts to
35 kt in Delta overnight into Thursday morning. A few
afternoon/early evening isolated showers possible over Lassen Park
and along the Sierra crest south of KTVL Thursday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KMTR 280357
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE USHERED INLAND BY ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED A LITTLE SINCE LAST EVENING AND IS ROUGHLY 2500
FEET DEEP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EARLY STRATUS ARRIVAL AT KSFO WITH MVFR CIG
REPORTED SINCE 2240Z. CONTINUED STRATUS FEED FAVORED BY WESTERLY
WINDS AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PER COORD WITH OAKLAND CWSU THOUGHT IS THAT
THE STRATUS WILL REACH THE APPROACH BY APPROX 04Z-05Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280357
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER COMPRESSED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EDGED
CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT HAS HELD RELATIVELY DEEP AT 2000
FEET. AND...ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY ROBUST. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BELOW
NORMAL YET AGAIN...A TREND THAT HAS CONTINUED UNABATED FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE...CENTERED ALONG 128W...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CA OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND ALSO AMPLIFYING A BIT. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STUBBORN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVENT COASTAL AREAS FROM WARMING MUCH. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY COMPRESS TO ABOUT 1000 FEET BY WEEK`S END...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE OCEAN.
BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IN
COASTAL AREAS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE OCEAN BY WEEK`S END.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WARM DAY FOR INLAND AREAS BEFORE
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TRIGGERS A RAPID DEEPENING IN THE
MARINE LAYER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG INLAND PUSH OF MARINE
AIR AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOST MODELS
INDICATE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP...AND ALSO FASTEST...DROPPING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SAN MATEO COUNTY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE 00Z MODELS SHOW...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO EXTEND
POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
GENERATE COASTAL DRIZZLE ALONG OUR ENTIRE COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY AS MUCH
AS TEN DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE USHERED INLAND BY ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED A LITTLE SINCE LAST EVENING AND IS ROUGHLY 2500
FEET DEEP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EARLY STRATUS ARRIVAL AT KSFO WITH MVFR CIG
REPORTED SINCE 2240Z. CONTINUED STRATUS FEED FAVORED BY WESTERLY
WINDS AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PER COORD WITH OAKLAND CWSU THOUGHT IS THAT
THE STRATUS WILL REACH THE APPROACH BY APPROX 04Z-05Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 280355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 280355
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
855 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...GENERALLY QUIET WX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHO THERE WERE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SBA COUNTY
CENTRAL COAST AND FROM SANTA CATALINA ISLAND TO PALOS VERDES. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE INLAND TO THE ADJACENT VLYS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. GUSTY S TO W WINDS FROM THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS TO THE
ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS EVENING IS FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THU THRU FRI...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN OVER SRN CA THRU SAT. THE MAY GRAY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS INTO SOME OF THE ADJACENT VLYS THRU FRI...WITH
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH LOW CLOUDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PERIOD...
ALTHO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOWERING THE MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL WARM UP NICELY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...THEN WARM INLAND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WARMEST VLYS.
HIGHS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/830 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSGX 280354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND A WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BE MORE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL
AREAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF COASTAL DRIZZLE MAINLY
TONIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AT MID-EVENING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AFTER A
COUPLE DARK DREARY DAYS...WE HAD GOOD CLEARING ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME STRATUS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS...THOUGH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AT LINDBERGH FIELD SHOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000
FT MSL. REGARDING THE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY WESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED AS THE CLOUD
DEPTH WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE OVER 1000 FEET DEEP. LOOK FOR EARLIER
CLEARING THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
BEGIN WITH...AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS WARMING BELOW THE INVERSION TO
COUNTERBALANCE THAT ABOVE...SO THE INVERSION WILL NOT GET TOO
STRONG. STILL...LOCAL STRATUS COULD LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
LOCATIONS WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY INLAND. DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HEIGHTS DO NOT FAR MUCH
HERE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH BEING TO OUR NORTH. THUS...THE
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER SLIGHT. AFTER ABOUT
NEXT TUESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER DIVERGENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATE RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG RIDGE OR TROUGH IN EARLY
JUNE...SEASONAL TEMPS WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE COAST IS
THE BEST BET FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE EAST-WEST RIDGING TYPICAL IN JUNE IS GOING TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH SO THAT SHOULD BRING MORE
CONSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1800 TO 3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH INLAND TO THE COASTAL
MTN SLOPES BY MID THU MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER A FEW HUNDRED
FEET OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL LOWER TO 2-4SM BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS
HIGHER TERRAIN. -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR AND AFTER
SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THU
MORNING/EARLY THU AFTN...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND STRATUS HEIGHTS IS MODERATE.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND A WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BE MORE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL
AREAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF COASTAL DRIZZLE MAINLY
TONIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AT MID-EVENING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AFTER A
COUPLE DARK DREARY DAYS...WE HAD GOOD CLEARING ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME STRATUS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS...THOUGH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AT LINDBERGH FIELD SHOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000
FT MSL. REGARDING THE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY WESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED AS THE CLOUD
DEPTH WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE OVER 1000 FEET DEEP. LOOK FOR EARLIER
CLEARING THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
BEGIN WITH...AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS WARMING BELOW THE INVERSION TO
COUNTERBALANCE THAT ABOVE...SO THE INVERSION WILL NOT GET TOO
STRONG. STILL...LOCAL STRATUS COULD LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
LOCATIONS WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY INLAND. DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HEIGHTS DO NOT FAR MUCH
HERE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH BEING TO OUR NORTH. THUS...THE
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER SLIGHT. AFTER ABOUT
NEXT TUESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER DIVERGENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATE RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG RIDGE OR TROUGH IN EARLY
JUNE...SEASONAL TEMPS WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE COAST IS
THE BEST BET FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE EAST-WEST RIDGING TYPICAL IN JUNE IS GOING TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH SO THAT SHOULD BRING MORE
CONSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1800 TO 3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH INLAND TO THE COASTAL
MTN SLOPES BY MID THU MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER A FEW HUNDRED
FEET OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL LOWER TO 2-4SM BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS
HIGHER TERRAIN. -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR AND AFTER
SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THU
MORNING/EARLY THU AFTN...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND STRATUS HEIGHTS IS MODERATE.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND A WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BE MORE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL
AREAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF COASTAL DRIZZLE MAINLY
TONIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AT MID-EVENING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AFTER A
COUPLE DARK DREARY DAYS...WE HAD GOOD CLEARING ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME STRATUS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS...THOUGH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AT LINDBERGH FIELD SHOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000
FT MSL. REGARDING THE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY WESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED AS THE CLOUD
DEPTH WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE OVER 1000 FEET DEEP. LOOK FOR EARLIER
CLEARING THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
BEGIN WITH...AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS WARMING BELOW THE INVERSION TO
COUNTERBALANCE THAT ABOVE...SO THE INVERSION WILL NOT GET TOO
STRONG. STILL...LOCAL STRATUS COULD LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
LOCATIONS WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY INLAND. DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HEIGHTS DO NOT FAR MUCH
HERE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH BEING TO OUR NORTH. THUS...THE
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER SLIGHT. AFTER ABOUT
NEXT TUESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER DIVERGENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATE RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG RIDGE OR TROUGH IN EARLY
JUNE...SEASONAL TEMPS WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE COAST IS
THE BEST BET FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE EAST-WEST RIDGING TYPICAL IN JUNE IS GOING TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH SO THAT SHOULD BRING MORE
CONSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1800 TO 3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH INLAND TO THE COASTAL
MTN SLOPES BY MID THU MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER A FEW HUNDRED
FEET OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL LOWER TO 2-4SM BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS
HIGHER TERRAIN. -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR AND AFTER
SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THU
MORNING/EARLY THU AFTN...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND STRATUS HEIGHTS IS MODERATE.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS66 KSGX 280354
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MORE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER AND A WARMER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BE MORE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL
AREAS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF COASTAL DRIZZLE MAINLY
TONIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AT MID-EVENING EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. AFTER A
COUPLE DARK DREARY DAYS...WE HAD GOOD CLEARING ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME STRATUS LINGERING WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. LOCAL WRF SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS...THOUGH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AT LINDBERGH FIELD SHOW THE MARINE INVERSION BASE DOWN TO ABOUT 2000
FT MSL. REGARDING THE DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY WESTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED AS THE CLOUD
DEPTH WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE OVER 1000 FEET DEEP. LOOK FOR EARLIER
CLEARING THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
BEGIN WITH...AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS WARMING BELOW THE INVERSION TO
COUNTERBALANCE THAT ABOVE...SO THE INVERSION WILL NOT GET TOO
STRONG. STILL...LOCAL STRATUS COULD LINGER NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH VALLEY...MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
LOCATIONS WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THAT SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY INLAND. DESPITE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO
THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HEIGHTS DO NOT FAR MUCH
HERE DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH BEING TO OUR NORTH. THUS...THE
COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER SLIGHT. AFTER ABOUT
NEXT TUESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER DIVERGENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATE RIDGES AND
TROUGHS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG RIDGE OR TROUGH IN EARLY
JUNE...SEASONAL TEMPS WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE COAST IS
THE BEST BET FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE EAST-WEST RIDGING TYPICAL IN JUNE IS GOING TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO THOUGH SO THAT SHOULD BRING MORE
CONSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
280330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES FROM
1800 TO 3000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PUSH INLAND TO THE COASTAL
MTN SLOPES BY MID THU MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER A FEW HUNDRED
FEET OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL LOWER TO 2-4SM BR WHERE STRATUS NEARS
HIGHER TERRAIN. -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR AND AFTER
SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THU
MORNING/EARLY THU AFTN...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU
EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TOPS AND BASES. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND STRATUS HEIGHTS IS MODERATE.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 280337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A DRY...AND RATHER WARM EVENING IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO AZ TODAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COOLING THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT...SINCE THE CLOUDS THAT KEPT UP LAST NIGHT/S LOWS ARE NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW OUR SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM...OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...INHERITED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE HOLDING UP
WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE
THROUGH AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280044 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280044 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280044 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 280044 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
545 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0040Z

AT 2310Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT VLY AIRFIELDS
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 06Z AT
KSMX AND KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE THU AFTERNOON AT KLAX. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND
KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THU.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 06Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 00Z
THU AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z...FOLLOWED BY MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 08Z THIS EVENING...
ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR
SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 18Z THU MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SHOWING SINGS OF COMPRESSING ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE
COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...YET THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING - MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90
DEGREES. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE USHERED INLAND BY ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED A LITTLE SINCE LAST EVENING AND IS ROUGHLY 2500
FEET DEEP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EARLY STRATUS ARRIVAL AT KSFO WITH MVFR CIG
REPORTED SINCE 2240Z. CONTINUED STRATUS FEED FAVORED BY WESTERLY
WINDS AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PER COORD WITH OAKLAND CWSU THOUGHT IS THAT
THE STRATUS WILL REACH THE APPROACH BY APPROX 04Z-05Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 272340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SHOWING SINGS OF COMPRESSING ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE
COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...YET THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING - MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90
DEGREES. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE USHERED INLAND BY ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED A LITTLE SINCE LAST EVENING AND IS ROUGHLY 2500
FEET DEEP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EARLY STRATUS ARRIVAL AT KSFO WITH MVFR CIG
REPORTED SINCE 2240Z. CONTINUED STRATUS FEED FAVORED BY WESTERLY
WINDS AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PER COORD WITH OAKLAND CWSU THOUGHT IS THAT
THE STRATUS WILL REACH THE APPROACH BY APPROX 04Z-05Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 272340
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
440 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SHOWING SINGS OF COMPRESSING ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE
COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...YET THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING - MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90
DEGREES. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE USHERED INLAND BY ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER
HAS COMPRESSED A LITTLE SINCE LAST EVENING AND IS ROUGHLY 2500
FEET DEEP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...EARLY STRATUS ARRIVAL AT KSFO WITH MVFR CIG
REPORTED SINCE 2240Z. CONTINUED STRATUS FEED FAVORED BY WESTERLY
WINDS AND A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PER COORD WITH OAKLAND CWSU THOUGHT IS THAT
THE STRATUS WILL REACH THE APPROACH BY APPROX 04Z-05Z. CLEARING
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING IS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: SIMS

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 272237
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
337 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler early next
week with a slight chance of showers over the northern portion of
the forecast area as the tail end of a Pacific system brushes
through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific is bringing some
warmer temperatures this afternoon as it begins to build inland.
Temperatures are highest over the northern Sacramento Valley,
where at 3 pm it was 89 at Redding, 85 at Red Bluff. A Delta
breeze is keeping things cooler for the Delta, southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys, though even those
spots have warmed some compared to yesterday. The northern and
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills should also see a
noticeable increase in overnight temperatures, overnight tonight
and especially Friday night/Saturday morning.
Afternoon convection in the mountains has been much less than in
recent days, as expected. Some lingering moisture and instability
is generating cumulus clouds, but shower activity so far has been
near or east of the California-Nevada border. There is still a
small possibility of a few isolated showers along the crest by
sunset.
The Delta breeze will strengthen again overnight. The upper level
ridge is beginning to compress the marine layer some, but it may
be thick enough to spread through the Delta and reach the
Sacramento area. The morning cloud cover is not expected to be as
thick or extensive, though, and may be just some scattered clouds.
Thursday will be dry and warm, with high temperatures rising 3-5
degrees over what we are seeing today. Friday should be another
2-3 degrees warmer, with widespread 90s in the Valley. Dry weather
is expected, even in the mountains. EK

Afternoon high
temperatures peak on Friday, with little change on Saturday.
Widespread highs in the 90s expected in the Valley, mid to upper
80s in the foothills. EK
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

A decent waves moves across Interior NorCal late Sunday into
Tuesday. Dynamics and moisture look limited with the main impact
appearing to be synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow.
Locally gusty southwest winds expected through the Delta and over
higher mountain terrain Sunday and Monday before shifting more
west-northwesterly Tuesday. Potential showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period. High
temperatures begin to warm midweek as upper troughing shifts east
and EPAC ridging builds inland.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions over the area tonight. Local MVFR in the
Delta and Sacramento metro area from marine stratus may return
again late tonight, 09z-17z Thursday, but should be less extensive
and clouds may be more scattered. Local gusts to 30 kt possible in
the Delta area overnight through Thursday morning. A few
afternoon/early evening isolated showers possible over Lassen Park
and along the Sierra crest south of KTVL today. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 272237
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
337 PM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler early next
week with a slight chance of showers over the northern portion of
the forecast area as the tail end of a Pacific system brushes
through.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific is bringing some
warmer temperatures this afternoon as it begins to build inland.
Temperatures are highest over the northern Sacramento Valley,
where at 3 pm it was 89 at Redding, 85 at Red Bluff. A Delta
breeze is keeping things cooler for the Delta, southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys, though even those
spots have warmed some compared to yesterday. The northern and
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills should also see a
noticeable increase in overnight temperatures, overnight tonight
and especially Friday night/Saturday morning.
Afternoon convection in the mountains has been much less than in
recent days, as expected. Some lingering moisture and instability
is generating cumulus clouds, but shower activity so far has been
near or east of the California-Nevada border. There is still a
small possibility of a few isolated showers along the crest by
sunset.
The Delta breeze will strengthen again overnight. The upper level
ridge is beginning to compress the marine layer some, but it may
be thick enough to spread through the Delta and reach the
Sacramento area. The morning cloud cover is not expected to be as
thick or extensive, though, and may be just some scattered clouds.
Thursday will be dry and warm, with high temperatures rising 3-5
degrees over what we are seeing today. Friday should be another
2-3 degrees warmer, with widespread 90s in the Valley. Dry weather
is expected, even in the mountains. EK

Afternoon high
temperatures peak on Friday, with little change on Saturday.
Widespread highs in the 90s expected in the Valley, mid to upper
80s in the foothills. EK
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

A decent waves moves across Interior NorCal late Sunday into
Tuesday. Dynamics and moisture look limited with the main impact
appearing to be synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow.
Locally gusty southwest winds expected through the Delta and over
higher mountain terrain Sunday and Monday before shifting more
west-northwesterly Tuesday. Potential showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains north of I-80 through this period. High
temperatures begin to warm midweek as upper troughing shifts east
and EPAC ridging builds inland.    JClapp

&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions over the area tonight. Local MVFR in the
Delta and Sacramento metro area from marine stratus may return
again late tonight, 09z-17z Thursday, but should be less extensive
and clouds may be more scattered. Local gusts to 30 kt possible in
the Delta area overnight through Thursday morning. A few
afternoon/early evening isolated showers possible over Lassen Park
and along the Sierra crest south of KTVL today. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KEKA 272218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DECREASE CLOUDINESS INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND YOLLA BOLLYS THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THE END OF THIS WEEKEND POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE FIRST SHOT OF
SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND A MID LEVEL CAP
STRENGTHENS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE SHOWS SOME HIGHER PWAT ANOMALIES ON MONDAY MORNING
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT POPS WERE
INCREASED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW RIDGING TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...THUS TAPERED POPS
TOWARDS CLIMO THROUGH MID-WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS INUNDATED ALONG THE COAST TODAY LIMITING
AIRFIELD CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH MOSTLY VFR ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD AS LITTLE
IS CHANGING IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
ALONG THE COAST IN AREAS THAT MAY HAVE EXPERIENCED BRIEF SCATTERING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MAY EVEN COME DOWN AS THE
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS FURTHER COMPRESSES THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR FOR INTERIOR
AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. KML


&&

.MARINE....NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 272218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
318 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DECREASE CLOUDINESS INLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND YOLLA BOLLYS THE
NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THE END OF THIS WEEKEND POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY)...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE FIRST SHOT OF
SHOWERS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND A MID LEVEL CAP
STRENGTHENS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE SHOWS SOME HIGHER PWAT ANOMALIES ON MONDAY MORNING
WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT POPS WERE
INCREASED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW RIDGING TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...THUS TAPERED POPS
TOWARDS CLIMO THROUGH MID-WEEK. KML

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS INUNDATED ALONG THE COAST TODAY LIMITING
AIRFIELD CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH MOSTLY VFR ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD AS LITTLE
IS CHANGING IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
ALONG THE COAST IN AREAS THAT MAY HAVE EXPERIENCED BRIEF SCATTERING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MAY EVEN COME DOWN AS THE
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS FURTHER COMPRESSES THE MARINE LAYER. EXPECT
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR FOR INTERIOR
AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. KML


&&

.MARINE....NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 272205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING HIGH
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY RESULTING IN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND INTO THE 105
TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING HIGH
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY RESULTING IN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND INTO THE 105
TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING HIGH
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY RESULTING IN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND INTO THE 105
TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS
SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL
SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING HIGH
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY RESULTING IN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS WEEKEND INTO THE 105
TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PERIODS OF THICKER HIGH CIRRUS AOA 20K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A GENERAL S/SE COMPONENT
FAVORED OVER SERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRADITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WLY
COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD LONGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN IS SEASONALLY TYPICAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




000
FXUS65 KREV 272154
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK INSTABILITY STILL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HAWTHORNE AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TOMORROW, AGAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF SUSANVILLE AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP, KEEPING
ANY STORMS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. BY SATURDAY, WE
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN
THE SIERRA.

AS HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AND FOLKS BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT SUMMER, PEOPLE MAY THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO COOL OFF IN LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURE IN
LAKE TAHOE IS ABOUT 53 DEGREES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS.
HYPOTHERMIA IS A REAL THREAT DURING EARLY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
AREN`T EXPECTING IT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT.

FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, FROM AROUND 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WEST. DJ

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



000
FXUS65 KREV 272154
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE STARTING TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
A FEW AREAS OF WEAK INSTABILITY STILL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HAWTHORNE AND NORTH OF SUSANVILLE, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR TOMORROW, AGAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF SUSANVILLE AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP, KEEPING
ANY STORMS VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST. BY SATURDAY, WE
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES IN
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN
THE SIERRA.

AS HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AND FOLKS BEGIN THINKING
ABOUT SUMMER, PEOPLE MAY THINK ITS A GOOD IDEA TO COOL OFF IN LOCAL
LAKES AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURE IN
LAKE TAHOE IS ABOUT 53 DEGREES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS.
HYPOTHERMIA IS A REAL THREAT DURING EARLY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
AREN`T EXPECTING IT. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN CA/NV WITH BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA MONDAY, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-FALLON LINE.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY. THE ONLY PLACES WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ARE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT.

FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, FROM AROUND 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WEST. DJ

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KPSR 272144
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...
THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH
AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CIGS WITH BASES AOA 20K FEET...WITH THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO STAY RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND FAVOR THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT KIPL AND KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AROUND 105 OVER THE HOTTEST LOWER DESERTS. THE MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 7 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTINESS...BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 272144
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...
THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH
AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS INCREASES SLOWLY
RESULTING IN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...BECOMING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THE LOWER DESERTS.
OTHERWISE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CIGS WITH BASES AOA 20K FEET...WITH THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO STAY RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND FAVOR THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT KIPL AND KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AROUND 105 OVER THE HOTTEST LOWER DESERTS. THE MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 7 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTINESS...BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS66 KMTR 272140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
240 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SHOWING SINGS OF COMPRESSING ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE
COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...YET THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING - MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90
DEGREES. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON
DISTANCE FROM COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 272140
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
240 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SHOWING SINGS OF COMPRESSING ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF OF THE
COAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...YET THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST COASTAL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING - MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON A WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90
DEGREES. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON
DISTANCE FROM COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:39 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 272055
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1800Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2400 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SCT
CIGS MAY DIFFER BY AN HOUR OR TWO FROM TAFS. 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY FOR SOME COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS...WITH SIMILAR TIMING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CIGS DIP A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. 30% CHANCE CIGS FOR KPRB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF CIGS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP TO 2
HRS FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME.  30% CHANCE CIGS/VSBY DIP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.


&&

27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 272055
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1800Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2400 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SCT
CIGS MAY DIFFER BY AN HOUR OR TWO FROM TAFS. 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY FOR SOME COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS...WITH SIMILAR TIMING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CIGS DIP A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. 30% CHANCE CIGS FOR KPRB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF CIGS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP TO 2
HRS FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME.  30% CHANCE CIGS/VSBY DIP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.


&&

27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 272055
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1800Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2400 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SCT
CIGS MAY DIFFER BY AN HOUR OR TWO FROM TAFS. 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY FOR SOME COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS...WITH SIMILAR TIMING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CIGS DIP A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. 30% CHANCE CIGS FOR KPRB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF CIGS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP TO 2
HRS FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME.  30% CHANCE CIGS/VSBY DIP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.


&&

27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 272055
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS WE SAW TODAY WARMING
WILL BE MORE NOTICABLE INLAND THAN AT THE COAST AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BIGGEST DAY TO DAY JUMP WITH SATURDAY JUST BEING A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. MARINE LYR WILL SHRINK EACH DAY BUT WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT AT THE COAST. IN FACT, WITH THE STRONGER INVERSION
AND STILL A 5-6MB ONSHORE AFTERNOON GRADIENT IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE
WE`LL SEE EVEN LESS BEACH CLEARING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN WE SAW
TODAY. EITHER WAY, THERE WILL BE A PRETTY BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FROM COAST TO VALLEYS BY SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 60S TO LOW 70S AT
THE COAST TO 90+ IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...TEMPS WILL PEAK SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW TROF APPROACHES NRN CA AND THE PAC
NW. MAIN INFLUENCE LOCALLY WILL BE THE USUAL INCREASING MARINE LYR
COVERAGE, SLOWER CLEARING, AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
BY AROUND MID WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1800Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2400 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SCT
CIGS MAY DIFFER BY AN HOUR OR TWO FROM TAFS. 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY FOR SOME COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS...WITH SIMILAR TIMING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CIGS DIP A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. 30% CHANCE CIGS FOR KPRB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF CIGS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP TO 2
HRS FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME.  30% CHANCE CIGS/VSBY DIP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.


&&

27/200 PM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KHNX 272012
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
112 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MOVING INTO IDAHO AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA INTO ARIZONA. IN BETWEEN...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE LOWS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING INLAND.
THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9-12 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE DESERT AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. A FEW DEGREES COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
SUNDAY PRODUCING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDS THE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA UNTIL 03Z THU. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-27      104:1974     55:1971     69:1896     46:1998
KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906

KBFL 05-27      106:1974     66:1971     75:1974     42:1917
KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 272012
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
112 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MOVING INTO IDAHO AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA INTO ARIZONA. IN BETWEEN...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CREST OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE LOWS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING INLAND.
THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9-12 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE DESERT AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. A FEW DEGREES COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
SUNDAY PRODUCING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND
BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDS THE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA UNTIL 03Z THU. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-27      104:1974     55:1971     69:1896     46:1998
KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906

KBFL 05-27      106:1974     66:1971     75:1974     42:1917
KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272003
AFDSGX

-AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING
INLAND WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLOSER
TO THE COAST. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND...ALONG WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED....THE MARINE STRATUS HAD
BURNED OUT OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND MUCH OF ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
REMAIND OVER MOST OF WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST BEFORE THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THICKEN AND SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT REACH QUITE AS FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD
BURN OUT OF THE VALLEYS SOONER ON THU.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...
THE MARINE LAYER WILL FLATTEN...AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN.
THE RESULT WILL BE BETTER CLEARING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...AND
WARMER DAYS. MOST OF THE WARMING WILL BE FELT INLAND...BUT EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER INVERSION MAY STILL KEEP SOME MARINE CLOUDS
NEAR THE BEACHES AND LOCALLY INLAND MUCH OF THE DAY.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUN...A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER FOR SEASONAL JUNE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE QUITE WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...
GRADUALLY COOLER. ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. OTHER THAN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION... 272000...COAST/VALLEYS...KCRQ-KSAN BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS
BASED NEAR 2000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 FEET MSL...AND SCT
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.  AFT 28/01Z BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH AND
INLAND...REACHING KONT AROUND 28/0800Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO SCT-
LOW CLOUDS AFTER 28/19Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EVENING RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS KSNA-KONT IS MODERATE. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN DRIZZLE AFTER 28/1200Z.


MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS66 KSGX 272003
AFDSGX

-AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING
INLAND WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLOSER
TO THE COAST. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND...ALONG WITH A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED....THE MARINE STRATUS HAD
BURNED OUT OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND MUCH OF ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
REMAIND OVER MOST OF WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST BEFORE THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THICKEN AND SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT REACH QUITE AS FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD
BURN OUT OF THE VALLEYS SOONER ON THU.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...
THE MARINE LAYER WILL FLATTEN...AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN.
THE RESULT WILL BE BETTER CLEARING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...AND
WARMER DAYS. MOST OF THE WARMING WILL BE FELT INLAND...BUT EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER INVERSION MAY STILL KEEP SOME MARINE CLOUDS
NEAR THE BEACHES AND LOCALLY INLAND MUCH OF THE DAY.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUN...A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER FOR SEASONAL JUNE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE QUITE WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...
GRADUALLY COOLER. ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. OTHER THAN PATCHY
DRIZZLE AT TIMES...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION... 272000...COAST/VALLEYS...KCRQ-KSAN BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS
BASED NEAR 2000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 FEET MSL...AND SCT
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.  AFT 28/01Z BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH AND
INLAND...REACHING KONT AROUND 28/0800Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO SCT-
LOW CLOUDS AFTER 28/19Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EVENING RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS KSNA-KONT IS MODERATE. LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN DRIZZLE AFTER 28/1200Z.


MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL



000
FXUS66 KLOX 271756
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET, WHICH IS DOWN 500-1000` FROM YESTERDAY. JUST A VERY SLIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND THIS MORNING, ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. THE DROP IN MARINE
LYR DEPTH A GOOD SIGN THAT THE WARMING TREND IS COMING BUT MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THAT 2500-3500 FT ELEVATION WON`T NOTICE IT TODAY.
MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR THE VALLEYS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE 12Z MODELS SO LIKELY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RAISES HGTS TO 585 DM. THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL RELAX ALSO ALLOWING QUICKER AND MORE COMPLETE CLEARING.
THE WEAKER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE HIGHER HGTS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS. TEMPS WILL REALLY JUMP FROM
THE VLYS INLAND WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
90 DEGREE READINGS. THE COASTS WILL WARM SOME BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
AS THE INLAND AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL EXERT A STRONG
COOLING INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... AND RIGHT ON TIME...JUNE GLOOM IS HERE. THE
EXCITEMENT LEVEL QUICKLY WANES. HGTS LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL REALLY NOT BE TOO
MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH - THERE WILL
MAYBE BE A DEGREE OF COOLING. BY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD TROF SWEEPS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL KICK OFF A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING TREND. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z

AT 1700Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2400 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAFS. THE TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SCT
CIGS MAY DIFFER BY AN HOUR OR TWO FROM TAFS. 30% CHANCE THAT CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY FOR SOME COAST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS...WITH SIMILAR TIMING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CIGS DIP A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST. 30% CHANCE CIGS FOR KPRB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME. TIMING OF CIGS RETURN MAY DIFFER UP TO 2
HRS FROM TAF TIMES.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. TIMING SCT CONDS MAY DIFFER
UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME.  30% CHANCE CIGS/VSBY DIP TO IFR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
SCA WILL NOT BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER A LIMITED AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KMTR 271750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:27 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:27 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:27 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 271750
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1050 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER OF
AROUND 3000 FEET CONTINUES OVER THE DISTRICT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 19-20Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...SFO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z. ONSHORE FLOW 10-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 21Z...THEN VFR UNTIL
04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:27 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS
TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BIG SUR COASTLINE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 271647
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET, WHICH IS DOWN 500-1000` FROM YESTERDAY. JUST A VERY SLIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND THIS MORNING, ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. THE DROP IN MARINE
LYR DEPTH A GOOD SIGN THAT THE WARMING TREND IS COMING BUT MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THAT 2500-3500 FT ELEVATION WON`T NOTICE IT TODAY.
MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR THE VALLEYS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE 12Z MODELS SO LIKELY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RAISES HGTS TO 585 DM. THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL RELAX ALSO ALLOWING QUICKER AND MORE COMPLETE CLEARING.
THE WEAKER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE HIGHER HGTS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS. TEMPS WILL REALLY JUMP FROM
THE VLYS INLAND WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
90 DEGREE READINGS. THE COASTS WILL WARM SOME BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
AS THE INLAND AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL EXERT A STRONG
COOLING INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... AND RIGHT ON TIME...JUNE GLOOM IS HERE. THE
EXCITEMENT LEVEL QUICKLY WANES. HGTS LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL REALLY NOT BE TOO
MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH - THERE WILL
MAYBE BE A DEGREE OF COOLING. BY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD TROF SWEEPS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL KICK OFF A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING TREND. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1200Z

AT 1210Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING TODAY OR A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL BE SHALLOWER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY LOW MVFR AND HIGH IFR.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT CONDS OCCURING AFTER 21Z.


&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
SCA WILL NOT BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER A LIMITED AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KLOX 271647
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET, WHICH IS DOWN 500-1000` FROM YESTERDAY. JUST A VERY SLIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND THIS MORNING, ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. THE DROP IN MARINE
LYR DEPTH A GOOD SIGN THAT THE WARMING TREND IS COMING BUT MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THAT 2500-3500 FT ELEVATION WON`T NOTICE IT TODAY.
MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR THE VALLEYS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE 12Z MODELS SO LIKELY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RAISES HGTS TO 585 DM. THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL RELAX ALSO ALLOWING QUICKER AND MORE COMPLETE CLEARING.
THE WEAKER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE HIGHER HGTS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS. TEMPS WILL REALLY JUMP FROM
THE VLYS INLAND WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
90 DEGREE READINGS. THE COASTS WILL WARM SOME BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
AS THE INLAND AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL EXERT A STRONG
COOLING INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... AND RIGHT ON TIME...JUNE GLOOM IS HERE. THE
EXCITEMENT LEVEL QUICKLY WANES. HGTS LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL REALLY NOT BE TOO
MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH - THERE WILL
MAYBE BE A DEGREE OF COOLING. BY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD TROF SWEEPS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL KICK OFF A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING TREND. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1200Z

AT 1210Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING TODAY OR A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL BE SHALLOWER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY LOW MVFR AND HIGH IFR.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT CONDS OCCURING AFTER 21Z.


&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
SCA WILL NOT BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER A LIMITED AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



000
FXUS66 KLOX 271647
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET, WHICH IS DOWN 500-1000` FROM YESTERDAY. JUST A VERY SLIGHT
OFFSHORE TREND THIS MORNING, ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. THE DROP IN MARINE
LYR DEPTH A GOOD SIGN THAT THE WARMING TREND IS COMING BUT MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THAT 2500-3500 FT ELEVATION WON`T NOTICE IT TODAY.
MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR THE VALLEYS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE 12Z MODELS SO LIKELY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RAISES HGTS TO 585 DM. THE ONSHORE
PUSH WILL RELAX ALSO ALLOWING QUICKER AND MORE COMPLETE CLEARING.
THE WEAKER ONSHORE PUSH AND THE HIGHER HGTS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VLYS. TEMPS WILL REALLY JUMP FROM
THE VLYS INLAND WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
90 DEGREE READINGS. THE COASTS WILL WARM SOME BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
AS THE INLAND AREAS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL STILL EXERT A STRONG
COOLING INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... AND RIGHT ON TIME...JUNE GLOOM IS HERE. THE
EXCITEMENT LEVEL QUICKLY WANES. HGTS LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL REALLY NOT BE TOO
MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY AS HGTS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH - THERE WILL
MAYBE BE A DEGREE OF COOLING. BY SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS AND COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

A BROAD TROF SWEEPS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. THIS WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER DEEP INTO THE VLYS AND WILL KICK OFF A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING TREND. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT ITS A BIT FAR OUT TO MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1200Z

AT 1210Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 3600 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 14
DEGREES CELSIUS.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. EXPECT SIMILAR CLEARING TODAY OR A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER. 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL BE SHALLOWER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY LOW MVFR AND HIGH IFR.

KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. SCT CONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF
SCT CONDS OCCURING AFTER 21Z.


&&

.MARINE...

27/900 AM

OUTER WATERS... EXPECT NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
TWO SOUTHERN OUTER ZONES...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
POINT CONCEPTION AND SAN NICOLAS ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
SCA WILL NOT BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER A LIMITED AREA.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




000
FXUS66 KSTO 271629
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. A slight threat of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the Sierra today. Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers over the northern
forecast area as a Pacific trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific is starting to build
inland today as the low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest
exits eastward. Temperatures are slightly warmer over the forecast
area, though a Delta breeze and marine stratus this morning are
limiting this in some spots. Temperatures by this afternoon should
be about 4-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs rising
above normal levels, which has been rare this month. There`s a
good chance that Redding and Red Bluff will reach 90 by late
afternoon.

The Delta breeze will continue to be a factor, though, increasing
again tonight keeping things cool in the Delta, southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys. The northern and
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills should see a
noticeable increase in overnight temperatures, especially Friday
night/Saturday morning. Afternoon high temperatures peak on
Friday, with little change on Saturday. Widespread highs in the 90s
expected in the Valley, mid to upper 80s in the foothills. EK
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models somewhat similar in bringing several short
wave troughs across Interior NorCal late Sunday through Tuesday.
Dynamics and moisture look limited. Main impact appears to be
synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty
southwest winds expected through the Delta and over higher
mountain terrain. A slight chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms are possible mainly over the mountains north of I-80
through this period. High temperatures begin to warm midweek as
upper troughing shifts east and EPAC upper ridging begins to build
inland.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly vfR conditions over the area today. Local MVFR in the Delta
and Sacramento metro area from marine stratus is quickly
dissipating, but expect it to return again late tonight, 09z-17z
Thursday. Local gusts to 30 kt possible in the Delta area through
Thursday morning. A few afternoon isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible around Lassen Park and the Sierra crest
south of KTVL. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 271629
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. A slight threat of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the Sierra today. Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers over the northern
forecast area as a Pacific trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific is starting to build
inland today as the low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest
exits eastward. Temperatures are slightly warmer over the forecast
area, though a Delta breeze and marine stratus this morning are
limiting this in some spots. Temperatures by this afternoon should
be about 4-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs rising
above normal levels, which has been rare this month. There`s a
good chance that Redding and Red Bluff will reach 90 by late
afternoon.

The Delta breeze will continue to be a factor, though, increasing
again tonight keeping things cool in the Delta, southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys. The northern and
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills should see a
noticeable increase in overnight temperatures, especially Friday
night/Saturday morning. Afternoon high temperatures peak on
Friday, with little change on Saturday. Widespread highs in the 90s
expected in the Valley, mid to upper 80s in the foothills. EK
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models somewhat similar in bringing several short
wave troughs across Interior NorCal late Sunday through Tuesday.
Dynamics and moisture look limited. Main impact appears to be
synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty
southwest winds expected through the Delta and over higher
mountain terrain. A slight chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms are possible mainly over the mountains north of I-80
through this period. High temperatures begin to warm midweek as
upper troughing shifts east and EPAC upper ridging begins to build
inland.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly vfR conditions over the area today. Local MVFR in the Delta
and Sacramento metro area from marine stratus is quickly
dissipating, but expect it to return again late tonight, 09z-17z
Thursday. Local gusts to 30 kt possible in the Delta area through
Thursday morning. A few afternoon isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible around Lassen Park and the Sierra crest
south of KTVL. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 271629
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
929 AM PDT Wed May 27 2015

.Synopsis...
Gradually warmer temperatures through the end of the week. Daytime
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. A slight threat of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the Sierra today. Cooler
early next week with a slight chance of showers over the northern
forecast area as a Pacific trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific is starting to build
inland today as the low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest
exits eastward. Temperatures are slightly warmer over the forecast
area, though a Delta breeze and marine stratus this morning are
limiting this in some spots. Temperatures by this afternoon should
be about 4-5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs rising
above normal levels, which has been rare this month. There`s a
good chance that Redding and Red Bluff will reach 90 by late
afternoon.

The Delta breeze will continue to be a factor, though, increasing
again tonight keeping things cool in the Delta, southern
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys. The northern and
central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills should see a
noticeable increase in overnight temperatures, especially Friday
night/Saturday morning. Afternoon high temperatures peak on
Friday, with little change on Saturday. Widespread highs in the 90s
expected in the Valley, mid to upper 80s in the foothills. EK
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Medium range models somewhat similar in bringing several short
wave troughs across Interior NorCal late Sunday through Tuesday.
Dynamics and moisture look limited. Main impact appears to be
synoptic cooling with increased onshore flow. Locally gusty
southwest winds expected through the Delta and over higher
mountain terrain. A slight chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms are possible mainly over the mountains north of I-80
through this period. High temperatures begin to warm midweek as
upper troughing shifts east and EPAC upper ridging begins to build
inland.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly vfR conditions over the area today. Local MVFR in the Delta
and Sacramento metro area from marine stratus is quickly
dissipating, but expect it to return again late tonight, 09z-17z
Thursday. Local gusts to 30 kt possible in the Delta area through
Thursday morning. A few afternoon isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible around Lassen Park and the Sierra crest
south of KTVL. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24 HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT SAID...
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING...THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
GENTLE SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENTLE SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 271602
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
902 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MOST APPARENT INLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER COOLING TREND WILL START
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:56 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MARINE LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
BURN-OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. MEANWHILE...COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST JUST OFF OF THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS...NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER MULTIPLE
DAYS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A TRANSITION TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER. CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER WORTH NOTING THAT IN
SOME AREAS IT HAS NOT FILED IN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN MODERATE TO ROBUST FROM
THE WEST HAS SWITCHED TO NOW BEING MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NORTH TO SOUTH PIECE HAS INCREASED BY MORE THAN 2.5 MB OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. RH VALUES ARE ALMOST ALL DRIER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A QUICKER
BURN-OFF TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SPOTS TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE A MODEST AMOUNT TODAY
PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND SPOTS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S AT THE
COAST TO 70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH 850 MB TEMPS HITTING THEIR WARMEST
READINGS FOR THE WEEK...19 TO 20C. INLAND TEMPS WILL RETURN BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH EVENT A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL ONLY SEE MINOR INCREASES AT MOST COASTAL SPOTS AS THE COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPS COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL BE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA GOING INTO
SUMMER -- UPPER 50S AT THE COOLEST OCEAN SPOTS WITH LOWER 90S IN
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACNW/NORCAL REGION. MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. &&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARDS WRF AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH
INDICATES FAIRLY EARLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING. 24 HOUR CHANGE IS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER PACIFIC
COASTLINE. GOES-W SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW THINNING OF MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE OF THE STATE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEPTHS OF 1250FT OVER
THE BAY AREA AND JUST 750FT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH
15-16Z THEN MIX OUT BETWEEN 17-19Z DEPENDING ON DISTANCE FROM
COAST. DEEPER MARINE LAYER RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A THINNING OFFSHORE
MARINE LAYER WILL STRUGGLE TO FEED MOISTURE THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP AND COULD LEAD TO CLEARING AS EARLY AS 16-17Z. THAT SAID...
STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE MVFR THROUGH 19Z-20Z IF OFFSHORE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS. ONSHORE FLOW 10-18 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS RETURN 04-05Z THU.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. FOG PRODUCTS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH BAY/KSMB AS OF 12Z THIS
MORNING...THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE UNABATED GIVEN CURRENT SET UP.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. SCT/BKN POSBL
THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN VFR UNTIL 04Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
GENTLE SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GENTLE SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 271601
AFDSGX

-AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING
INLAND WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY...IT WILL BE QUITE WARM
INLAND...WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN SEASONAL. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND...ALONG WITH A
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING SHOWED
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS FROM THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...EXTENDING
WELL OUT ACROSS THE CA BIGHT. AND AGAIN THIS MORNING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORANGE...AND MUCH OF WESTERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL RAIN GAGES REPORTED VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
.01-.02 INCH. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A DEEP 2300 FT SATURATED
LAYER TOPPED BY A WEAK 5 DEGREE C INVERSION. SEVERAL PILOT REPORTS
EARLY IN THE DAY ALSO INDICATE ABOUT A 2K FT DEEP CLOUD LAYER.

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER
INLAND...AND POSSIBLY BETTER CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...
EXCEPT NOT EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND WITH BETTER CLEARING ON THU.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE INTO SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL FLATTEN...AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN. THE RESULT
WILL BE BETTER CLEARING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL STRIP...AND WARMER
DAYS. MOST OF THE WARMING WILL BE FELT INLAND...BUT EVEN COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER INVERSION MAY STILL KEEP SOME MARINE CLOUDS NEAR THE
BEACHES AND LOCALLY INLAND MUCH OF THE DAY.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUN...A MORE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER FOR SEASONAL JUNE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE QUITE WARM THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...
GRADUALLY COOLER. ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION... 271530...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED NEAR 2000
FEET MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 3500 FEET MSL...WITH LOCAL VIS 3-5SM NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN DRIZZLE. IMPROVING TO SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS
27/21Z TO 28/01Z SOME AREAS...THEN LOW CLOUDS RETURNING...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER BASES AND TOPS. CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY BKN-OVC CLOUD
COVERAGE KCRQ-KSAN TAFS TODAY IS MODERATE-HIGH.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...LOWER COASTAL SLOPES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS BELOW
3500 FEET MSL TIL 27/18Z AND AFTER 28/08Z...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...

800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL




000
FXUS65 KPSR 271451
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
750 AM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 104 AND 107 DEGREES BY
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO A VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FOR MOST OF THE
DAY MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM MST...

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE A BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE TAKES OVER FOR LATER
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BE PREVALENT AND THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES TO KEEP OUR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OVER THAT OF YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. GOING INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FINALLY SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE CONTINUOUS WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW PATTERN WE/VE
EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF THIS PAST MONTH. AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD BUMP IN
UPPER HEIGHTS AND THUS RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURE
READINGS.

HIGHS BY FRIDAY SHOULD EASILY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LOWER DESERTS AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
103-106 RANGE...OR ROUGHLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF
NOW...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT. THIS HEAT
SHOULDN/T LAST MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AS LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL DROP HEIGHTS
CLOSER TO 582DM BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LOWER OUR HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE WILL
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE 30S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...THIS WILL DROP OUR SURFACE RH/S INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WE/RE NOT QUITE LOOKING AT EXTREME DRYNESS JUST
YET.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CIGS WITH BASES AOA 20K FEET...WITH THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO STAY RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND FAVOR THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT KIPL AND KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AROUND 105 OVER THE HOTTEST LOWER DESERTS. THE MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 7 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTINESS...BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 271451
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
750 AM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD WARM TO BETWEEN 104 AND 107 DEGREES BY
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS AZ THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO A VERY DRY
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FOR MOST OF THE
DAY MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM MST...

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE A BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE TAKES OVER FOR LATER
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BE PREVALENT AND THICK ENOUGH AT TIMES TO KEEP OUR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OVER THAT OF YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. GOING INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FINALLY SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE CONTINUOUS WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW PATTERN WE/VE
EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF THIS PAST MONTH. AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD BUMP IN
UPPER HEIGHTS AND THUS RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURE
READINGS.

HIGHS BY FRIDAY SHOULD EASILY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LOWER DESERTS AND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
103-106 RANGE...OR ROUGHLY 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS OF
NOW...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT. THIS HEAT
SHOULDN/T LAST MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AS LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL DROP HEIGHTS
CLOSER TO 582DM BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD LOWER OUR HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

LOOKING AT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE WILL
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE 30S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...THIS WILL DROP OUR SURFACE RH/S INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WE/RE NOT QUITE LOOKING AT EXTREME DRYNESS JUST
YET.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CIGS WITH BASES AOA 20K FEET...WITH THE SKIES TO CLEAR FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO STAY RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...AND FAVOR THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT KIPL AND KBLH NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AROUND 105 OVER THE HOTTEST LOWER DESERTS. THE MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 7 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTINESS...BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




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