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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260654
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING
BUT AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY
FOG MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260654
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1054 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING
BUT AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY
FOG MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA




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000
FXUS66 KLOX 260601 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z...

AT 0520Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAFS.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING IN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY 22Z-00Z AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BY
06Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 23Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z.  A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KTS 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z.

.MARINE...25/745 PM...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 260601 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z...

AT 0520Z AT KLAX... THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAFS.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING IN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY 22Z-00Z AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY BY
06Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 23Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z.  A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GREATER THAN 7 KTS 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.  REDUCED CONFIDENCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECT ON WIND FLOW AND VSBY.  AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 22Z-00Z.  CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z.

.MARINE...25/745 PM...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSTO 260559
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
955 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Leading edge of high cloudiness spreading Nwd into the Srn portion
of Norcal ahead of low pressure system off Baja. High clouds are
masking the ST/Fog developing over the Nrn San Joaquin Vly and may
have to rely on METARS/Web Cams the rest of the nite to monitor
extent of ST/Fog.

Light fog (BR) forming over Srn Sac Vly but extent of ST is much
less than the last couple of nites so dense fog likely to form a
little later. Don`t think the cirrus will be dense enough to limit
radiational cooling so dense fog likely to form late tonight and
become widespread around sunrise on Mon. Higher resolution progs
indicate the ST/Fog may advect/form all the way up into the RBL
possibly the RDD area again by Mon morning as low level SEly
increases from <5 kts to as much as 15 kts by morning.   JHM


.Previous Discussion...

The strong upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, allowing for some synoptic cooling. Prevalent valley fog
in the morning will likely give way to plenty of sunshine once
again as the fog/stratus layer will likely be quite shallow. We
may begin to see increasing high cloud cover late in the day as a
weather system off the Baja California coast begins to approach.

This weather system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. It is weak
and is expected to have little impact on the area besides bringing
showers to the northern Sierra and a chance of showers elsewhere.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected to return on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper level ridging will bring generally dry and mild weather for
the extended. Weak troughing develops over California on Thursday.
This system shifts eastward into Nevada, just brushing the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Have kept just a slight
chance of some rain and snow showers for higher elevations of
Tuolumne and Alpine counties Thursday into Friday.

A positively tilted Pacific ridge spreads eastward Friday and
Saturday and the trough closes off into a low over southern
Nevada/southern California. This is a Rex block pattern, which
will deflect systems well to the north of the region, keeping the
weather dry. A strong surface pressure gradient develops with this
pattern. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the Valley by
Friday afternoon, with gusty north to easterly winds in the
mountains peaking Friday night. The winds should gradually
diminish Saturday as the low shifts southward.

Dry and seasonably mild weekend is expected. The ridging should
break down early next week as the ridge flattens out. Some
moisture riding over the ridge could potentially spread some
precipitation into far northern California/southern Oregon after
next weekend. EK


&&

.Aviation...

MVFR visibilities returning this evening with LIFR conditions in fog
spreading Nwd from the Nrn San Joaquin Vly into the Sac Vly through
the morning hours (after 09z-18z). An exception to this may be RDD,
which could have enough north winds to maintain VFR or brief periods
of MVFR/IFR Mon morning. LIFR conditions eroding Mon afternoon. High
cirrus spreading Nwd into Norcal ahead of low pressure system moving
NEwd into Socal on Mon.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KHNX 260555 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES HAVE REALLY ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP IN THE VALLEY. WE
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SEVERAL PARTS
OF THE VALLEY. FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD REMAIN WARM. ADJUSTED AREA
OF FOG IN THE VALLEY AND FOCUSED DENSE FOG NEAR MERCED. COVERAGE
IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LOCK TEMPS AT
THEIR CURRENT VALUES OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE
BREAKING UP AND VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A
GLIMPSE OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS INVADING THE DESERT AREAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CLEARING SKIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOG
FORMATION COULD HOWEVER BE INHIBITED BY SOME DRIER AIR IN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AT
THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS LOW NORTHWESTWARD AND
THAN PUSHING IT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BY MONDAY AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BUT MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A
FOOT OF SNOW AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE A FEW
INCHES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE VALLEY BE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH.

AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BREAK...THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 260555 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES HAVE REALLY ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP IN THE VALLEY. WE
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SEVERAL PARTS
OF THE VALLEY. FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD REMAIN WARM. ADJUSTED AREA
OF FOG IN THE VALLEY AND FOCUSED DENSE FOG NEAR MERCED. COVERAGE
IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LOCK TEMPS AT
THEIR CURRENT VALUES OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE
BREAKING UP AND VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A
GLIMPSE OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS INVADING THE DESERT AREAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CLEARING SKIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOG
FORMATION COULD HOWEVER BE INHIBITED BY SOME DRIER AIR IN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AT
THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS LOW NORTHWESTWARD AND
THAN PUSHING IT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BY MONDAY AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BUT MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A
FOOT OF SNOW AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE A FEW
INCHES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE VALLEY BE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH.

AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BREAK...THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSGX 260509
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COASTLINE NEAR 120W. THESE INTERESTING AND
CONTRASTING LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPED TO BRING A SPECTACULAR SUNSET TO
THE REGION...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LEAK SOME LIGHT RAIN 0N MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...AFTER A WINDY AND DRY WEEKEND...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF IN MANY AREAS...BUT WERE STILL GUSTY FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND SFC DEWPOINTS VERY LOW. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING ONSHORE...BUT AT 05Z WERE STILL RUNNING 9 MBS OFFSHORE FROM
NV. LOOKING ALOFT...THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD REMARKABLE
50-70KT E WINDS ABOVE 15K FT...BUT WEAKENED STEADILY TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 3K FT. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...A DEEP DRY LAYER WAS IN PLACE BELOW 15K FT.

AT 8 PM PST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED REX BLOCK
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N.A. THE CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK WAS
CENTERED NEAR 28N/120W AND WAS SLINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND INTO SOCAL IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS. THE LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND MODELS SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO DRIFT TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY OPENING AS A TROUGH
WITH THE AXIS PASSING OVER SOCAL MON EVENING. THE CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FEEDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD MON NIGHT/TUE...THE CLOUDS SHOULD PART AND THE SHOWERS
END. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
DESPITE PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND ONE INCH.

THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP ON MON WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN CHECK...AND PROP UP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A BIT AFTER NIGHTS
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE
EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY AND GOOD PVA W OF THE MTS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE MON...SO DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...TSTMS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION
SHOWS AT LEAST ONE STRIKE WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS HEADING FOR THE CA
BIGHT MON EVENING.

TYPICAL WITH BLOCKS....THEY DON`T MOVE MUCH...SO THROUGH MIDWEEK...
THE BLOCK REMAINS OVER THE WEST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
PICKS UP WHERE THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK LEFT OFF. AND THERE IS
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS CUT-OFF
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INITIALLY...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE IN A GOOD
POSITION TO BRING SOCAL MUCH PRECIP...SO FOR NOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
260330Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AFTER
14Z MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION AFTER 16Z MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 20Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND KEEP CIGS IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE. CIGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THESE LEVELS AT PSP OR TRM WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9000
AND 8000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN E TO SE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
TO MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA









000
FXUS66 KSGX 260509
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
907 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING MORE LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE BAJA COASTLINE NEAR 120W. THESE INTERESTING AND
CONTRASTING LAYERS OF CLOUDS HELPED TO BRING A SPECTACULAR SUNSET TO
THE REGION...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LEAK SOME LIGHT RAIN 0N MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...AFTER A WINDY AND DRY WEEKEND...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF IN MANY AREAS...BUT WERE STILL GUSTY FROM THE EAST ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND SFC DEWPOINTS VERY LOW. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TRENDING ONSHORE...BUT AT 05Z WERE STILL RUNNING 9 MBS OFFSHORE FROM
NV. LOOKING ALOFT...THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING STILL HAD REMARKABLE
50-70KT E WINDS ABOVE 15K FT...BUT WEAKENED STEADILY TOWARD THE
SURFACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 3K FT. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...A DEEP DRY LAYER WAS IN PLACE BELOW 15K FT.

AT 8 PM PST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED REX BLOCK
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF N.A. THE CLOSED LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK WAS
CENTERED NEAR 28N/120W AND WAS SLINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND INTO SOCAL IN THE FORM OF HIGH
CLOUDS. THE LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST...AND MODELS SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO DRIFT TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY OPENING AS A TROUGH
WITH THE AXIS PASSING OVER SOCAL MON EVENING. THE CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FEEDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD MON NIGHT/TUE...THE CLOUDS SHOULD PART AND THE SHOWERS
END. MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
DESPITE PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 AND ONE INCH.

THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP ON MON WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS IN CHECK...AND PROP UP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A BIT AFTER NIGHTS
OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE
EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS PAST
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY AND GOOD PVA W OF THE MTS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE MON...SO DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...TSTMS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION
SHOWS AT LEAST ONE STRIKE WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS HEADING FOR THE CA
BIGHT MON EVENING.

TYPICAL WITH BLOCKS....THEY DON`T MOVE MUCH...SO THROUGH MIDWEEK...
THE BLOCK REMAINS OVER THE WEST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
PICKS UP WHERE THE ONE EARLIER IN THE WEEK LEFT OFF. AND THERE IS
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS CUT-OFF
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INITIALLY...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE IN A GOOD
POSITION TO BRING SOCAL MUCH PRECIP...SO FOR NOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE SMALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
260330Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST AFTER
14Z MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE REGION AFTER 16Z MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM 20Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND KEEP CIGS IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE. CIGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THESE LEVELS AT PSP OR TRM WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. FREEZING LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9000
AND 8000 FEET THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN E TO SE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
TO MODERATE TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 260457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260457
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
857 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. DRY AND MILD WEATHER
IS THEN FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SUNDAY...SLOW CLEARING OF FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SF BAY AREA TODAY HELD TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS. THERE WAS HOWEVER A LATE DAY
UPWARD SURGE IN TEMPS WHICH MANAGED TO PUSH RICHMOND`S HIGH TEMP
UP TO 69...ENOUGH TO TIE A RECORD THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD...THE DAY STARTED OFF SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY. FIVE LOCATIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY SET DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AN 84 DEGREE HIGH AT THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION AND AN 83 IN SANTA CRUZ. THE HIGH OF 83 IN SANTA CRUZ CAME
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD OF 84
SET JUST LAST YEAR (JANUARY 16 2014).

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
EVENING...UNLIKE THE PAST TWO EVENINGS WHEN FOG BLANKETED THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED INTO OUR NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP IN
THE N AND E BAY VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CA BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER ARE DRIFTING WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT...ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT COOLING ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE GENERAL IDEA
IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT DUE NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHEARING APART AS
IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH OF THE MODELS IN REGARD TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL FROM THIS SYSTEM...FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
ALL OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN THEN REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PALO ALTO AND LIVERMORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS WETTER COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET. HOWEVER...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO FORECAST GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NAM FORECASTS
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MONTEREY COUNTY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS ONLY
ABOUT HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING NORTH OUT OF
BAJA ARE LACKLUSTER UP TO THIS POINT...SO IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. IN ANY CASE...IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
THAT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF
SHOWS.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH EXITS
TO OUR EAST LATE TUE...ANOTHER WEAK AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...DUE TO
ARRIVE OVER CA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
TO PRODUCE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY ONLY GENERATE SOME
CLOUD COVER.

AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
CA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 260409 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
810 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/745 PM...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 260409 AAB
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
810 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN ALL AREAS. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...EVENING UPDATE...
WE SAW RECORD HEAT TODAY AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING OXNARD WITH A
HIGH OF 85 BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 84 BACK IN 1951 FOR THIS DATE.
ALSO SANTA BARBARA AP TIED THE OLD RECORD AT 79 DEGREES SET A FEW
YEARS BACK IN 2012 AND 1951. LASTLY PASO ROBLES REACHED 78 DEGREES
WHICH WAS A NEW RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN
2014. AS FAR AS THE WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE LAX-DAG WAS STILL WEAKLY OFFSHORE BUT TRENDING NEARLY
+4 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES WEST OF
BAJA WILL START TO ROTATE TO THE NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD. AS USUAL...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
HANDLING MANY DETAILS WITH ANY WET SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MOST ALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA INITIALLY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH OVER LA COUNTY AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTH TOWARDS SLO COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM CONCERNS ME A BIT IN RESPECT TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 500 MB TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
VORT MAX`S MOVING OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT. ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WOULD THINK WITH THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE RAN
SOME LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SO CAL BIGHT AND COASTAL
AREAS AND EXCEPT FOR THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE QPF
ALONE AND LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT LOCAL HIGH RES MODELS TO PICK UP
ON SOME CONVECTIVE AREAS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...THERE IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WITH THIS UPPER LOW. SO IF A FEW
STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IN RESPECT TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE FOR THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. AGAIN...WILL HAVE THE MID SHIFT
LOOK AT MORE HIGH RES DATA INCLUDING RAP AND HRRR INCLUDING THE
LOCAL 4KM WRF.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/745 PM...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA
BASIN. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THRU THRU FRI AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 260407
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE BAJA
CA COASTLINE...SPREADING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO AZ...WITH
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD JUST ABOUT READY
TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AZ. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD
WERE READILY APPARENT ON THE LATEST VAPOR/IR IMAGERY. AIRMASS OVER
AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WAS VERY WARM...DRY AND STABLE WITH PWAT
VALUES ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR LOWER...AND AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH TONIGHT WE MAINLY EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUD
BASES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
DESERTS AS IT WILL TAKE TIME TO WET UP THE LOW LEVELS. BY MORNING
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME VIRGA STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST DESERTS OR PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AS THEY ARE
AREAS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS...
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS AND SERN
CA...AS THE STRONGEST FORCING IS IN THAT AREA...AND TOMORROW NIGHT
GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS REST OF TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT
RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6 KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES. MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW
4-5K FEET OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES MORNING...
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW CIGS AOB
5K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY SLOW
CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY BLOWING FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CIGS LOWERING TO 12-15K FEET BY SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN
MON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS
3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN
EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND
WESTERLY AT KIPL. CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 260407
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE BAJA
CA COASTLINE...SPREADING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO AZ...WITH
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD JUST ABOUT READY
TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AZ. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD
WERE READILY APPARENT ON THE LATEST VAPOR/IR IMAGERY. AIRMASS OVER
AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WAS VERY WARM...DRY AND STABLE WITH PWAT
VALUES ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR LOWER...AND AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH TONIGHT WE MAINLY EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUD
BASES...BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
DESERTS AS IT WILL TAKE TIME TO WET UP THE LOW LEVELS. BY MORNING
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME VIRGA STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST DESERTS OR PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AS THEY ARE
AREAS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS...
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS AND SERN
CA...AS THE STRONGEST FORCING IS IN THAT AREA...AND TOMORROW NIGHT
GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS REST OF TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT
RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6 KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES. MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW
4-5K FEET OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES MORNING...
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW CIGS AOB
5K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY SLOW
CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY BLOWING FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CIGS LOWERING TO 12-15K FEET BY SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN
MON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS
3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN
EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND
WESTERLY AT KIPL. CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KREV 260232 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 260232 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS66 KMTR 260113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 260113
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
513 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PST SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING BUT
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. CENTRAL VALLEY FOG
MAY STILL IMPACT THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF 5-6 MILE
VSBY IN HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 260051 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 260051 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 260051 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 260051 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES










000
FXUS66 KLOX 260051
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0050Z...

AT 0030Z THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAFS. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING VFR
CLOUD CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 19Z FOR LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY FROM LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THEN WORKING NORTH INTO SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. 30 PERCENT THAT SE-E WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OVER 7 KTS
BETWEEN 09Z-18Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z TAF. EXPECT VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR -RA BY 23Z
MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KHNX 260011
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
411 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE
BREAKING UP AND VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A
GLIMPSE OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS INVADING THE DESERT AREAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CLEARING SKIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOG
FORMATION COULD HOWEVER BE INHIBITED BY SOME DRIER AIR IN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AT
THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS LOW NORTHWESTWARD AND
THAN PUSHING IT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BY MONDAY AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BUT MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A
FOOT OF SNOW AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE A FEW
INCHES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE VALLEY BE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH.

AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BREAK...THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 260011
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
411 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE
BREAKING UP AND VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A
GLIMPSE OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS INVADING THE DESERT AREAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CLEARING SKIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOG
FORMATION COULD HOWEVER BE INHIBITED BY SOME DRIER AIR IN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
CLOUDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AT
THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS LOW NORTHWESTWARD AND
THAN PUSHING IT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BY MONDAY AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM WILL
BE RATHER HIGH BUT MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A
FOOT OF SNOW AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE A FEW
INCHES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE VALLEY BE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH.

AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BREAK...THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KSTO 252312
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
312 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Continued offshore flow, albeit a little weaker than Saturday,
helped to dissipate the fog/stratus out of most of the valley by
late morning/early afternoon. It helped that the fog/stratus layer
was a little more shallow compared to 24 hours ago. The increased
sunshine over the valley along with the very mild airmass over
NorCal resulted in milder temperatures from about the Sacramento
area southward in the valley while the north valley cooled
considerably compared to Saturday with the lack of north winds.

We`ll likely see a repeat of fog in the Central Valley tonight
given the clear skies, relatively light winds and dew points in
the 40s. Expect we`ll see some areas of dense fog once again
developing by late evening with the most widespread dense fog
likely around sunrise on Monday.

The strong upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, allowing for some synoptic cooling. Prevalent valley fog
in the morning will likely give way to plenty of sunshine once
again as the fog/stratus layer will likely be quite shallow. We
may begin to see increasing high cloud cover late in the day as a
weather system off the Baja California coast begins to approach.

This weather system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. It is weak
and is expected to have little impact on the area besides bringing
showers to the northern Sierra and a chance of showers elsewhere.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected to return on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper level ridging will bring generally dry and mild weather for
the extended. Weak troughing develops over California on Thursday.
This system shifts eastward into Nevada, just brushing the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Have kept just a slight
chance of some rain and snow showers for higher elevations of
Tuolumne and Alpine counties Thursday into Friday.

A positively tilted Pacific ridge spreads eastward Friday and
Saturday and the trough closes off into a low over southern
Nevada/southern California. This is a Rex block pattern, which
will deflect systems well to the north of the region, keeping the
weather dry. A strong surface pressure gradient develops with this
pattern. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the Valley by
Friday afternoon, with gusty north to easterly winds in the
mountains peaking Friday night. The winds should gradually
diminish Saturday as the low shifts southward.

Dry and seasonably mild weekend is expected. The ridging should
break down early next week as the ridge flattens out. Some
moisture riding over the ridge could potentially spread some
precipitation into far northern California/southern Oregon after
next weekend. EK


&&

.Aviation...

VFR is expected late this afternoon and early this evening over
most of the Valley, but MVFR vsibilities are expected to quickly
return by around 04z. VLIFR/LIFR conditions should redevelop in
fog and low ceilings for most of valley through the morning hours
(around 06-09z). An exception to this may be RDD, which could have
enough north winds to maintain VFR. Fog/low ceilings will
gradually erode Monday morning. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 252312
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
312 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Continued offshore flow, albeit a little weaker than Saturday,
helped to dissipate the fog/stratus out of most of the valley by
late morning/early afternoon. It helped that the fog/stratus layer
was a little more shallow compared to 24 hours ago. The increased
sunshine over the valley along with the very mild airmass over
NorCal resulted in milder temperatures from about the Sacramento
area southward in the valley while the north valley cooled
considerably compared to Saturday with the lack of north winds.

We`ll likely see a repeat of fog in the Central Valley tonight
given the clear skies, relatively light winds and dew points in
the 40s. Expect we`ll see some areas of dense fog once again
developing by late evening with the most widespread dense fog
likely around sunrise on Monday.

The strong upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, allowing for some synoptic cooling. Prevalent valley fog
in the morning will likely give way to plenty of sunshine once
again as the fog/stratus layer will likely be quite shallow. We
may begin to see increasing high cloud cover late in the day as a
weather system off the Baja California coast begins to approach.

This weather system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. It is weak
and is expected to have little impact on the area besides bringing
showers to the northern Sierra and a chance of showers elsewhere.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected to return on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper level ridging will bring generally dry and mild weather for
the extended. Weak troughing develops over California on Thursday.
This system shifts eastward into Nevada, just brushing the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Have kept just a slight
chance of some rain and snow showers for higher elevations of
Tuolumne and Alpine counties Thursday into Friday.

A positively tilted Pacific ridge spreads eastward Friday and
Saturday and the trough closes off into a low over southern
Nevada/southern California. This is a Rex block pattern, which
will deflect systems well to the north of the region, keeping the
weather dry. A strong surface pressure gradient develops with this
pattern. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the Valley by
Friday afternoon, with gusty north to easterly winds in the
mountains peaking Friday night. The winds should gradually
diminish Saturday as the low shifts southward.

Dry and seasonably mild weekend is expected. The ridging should
break down early next week as the ridge flattens out. Some
moisture riding over the ridge could potentially spread some
precipitation into far northern California/southern Oregon after
next weekend. EK


&&

.Aviation...

VFR is expected late this afternoon and early this evening over
most of the Valley, but MVFR vsibilities are expected to quickly
return by around 04z. VLIFR/LIFR conditions should redevelop in
fog and low ceilings for most of valley through the morning hours
(around 06-09z). An exception to this may be RDD, which could have
enough north winds to maintain VFR. Fog/low ceilings will
gradually erode Monday morning. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 252312
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
312 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Continued offshore flow, albeit a little weaker than Saturday,
helped to dissipate the fog/stratus out of most of the valley by
late morning/early afternoon. It helped that the fog/stratus layer
was a little more shallow compared to 24 hours ago. The increased
sunshine over the valley along with the very mild airmass over
NorCal resulted in milder temperatures from about the Sacramento
area southward in the valley while the north valley cooled
considerably compared to Saturday with the lack of north winds.

We`ll likely see a repeat of fog in the Central Valley tonight
given the clear skies, relatively light winds and dew points in
the 40s. Expect we`ll see some areas of dense fog once again
developing by late evening with the most widespread dense fog
likely around sunrise on Monday.

The strong upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, allowing for some synoptic cooling. Prevalent valley fog
in the morning will likely give way to plenty of sunshine once
again as the fog/stratus layer will likely be quite shallow. We
may begin to see increasing high cloud cover late in the day as a
weather system off the Baja California coast begins to approach.

This weather system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. It is weak
and is expected to have little impact on the area besides bringing
showers to the northern Sierra and a chance of showers elsewhere.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected to return on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper level ridging will bring generally dry and mild weather for
the extended. Weak troughing develops over California on Thursday.
This system shifts eastward into Nevada, just brushing the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Have kept just a slight
chance of some rain and snow showers for higher elevations of
Tuolumne and Alpine counties Thursday into Friday.

A positively tilted Pacific ridge spreads eastward Friday and
Saturday and the trough closes off into a low over southern
Nevada/southern California. This is a Rex block pattern, which
will deflect systems well to the north of the region, keeping the
weather dry. A strong surface pressure gradient develops with this
pattern. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the Valley by
Friday afternoon, with gusty north to easterly winds in the
mountains peaking Friday night. The winds should gradually
diminish Saturday as the low shifts southward.

Dry and seasonably mild weekend is expected. The ridging should
break down early next week as the ridge flattens out. Some
moisture riding over the ridge could potentially spread some
precipitation into far northern California/southern Oregon after
next weekend. EK


&&

.Aviation...

VFR is expected late this afternoon and early this evening over
most of the Valley, but MVFR vsibilities are expected to quickly
return by around 04z. VLIFR/LIFR conditions should redevelop in
fog and low ceilings for most of valley through the morning hours
(around 06-09z). An exception to this may be RDD, which could have
enough north winds to maintain VFR. Fog/low ceilings will
gradually erode Monday morning. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 252312
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
312 PM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Continued offshore flow, albeit a little weaker than Saturday,
helped to dissipate the fog/stratus out of most of the valley by
late morning/early afternoon. It helped that the fog/stratus layer
was a little more shallow compared to 24 hours ago. The increased
sunshine over the valley along with the very mild airmass over
NorCal resulted in milder temperatures from about the Sacramento
area southward in the valley while the north valley cooled
considerably compared to Saturday with the lack of north winds.

We`ll likely see a repeat of fog in the Central Valley tonight
given the clear skies, relatively light winds and dew points in
the 40s. Expect we`ll see some areas of dense fog once again
developing by late evening with the most widespread dense fog
likely around sunrise on Monday.

The strong upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on
Monday, allowing for some synoptic cooling. Prevalent valley fog
in the morning will likely give way to plenty of sunshine once
again as the fog/stratus layer will likely be quite shallow. We
may begin to see increasing high cloud cover late in the day as a
weather system off the Baja California coast begins to approach.

This weather system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. It is weak
and is expected to have little impact on the area besides bringing
showers to the northern Sierra and a chance of showers elsewhere.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected to return on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

Upper level ridging will bring generally dry and mild weather for
the extended. Weak troughing develops over California on Thursday.
This system shifts eastward into Nevada, just brushing the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Have kept just a slight
chance of some rain and snow showers for higher elevations of
Tuolumne and Alpine counties Thursday into Friday.

A positively tilted Pacific ridge spreads eastward Friday and
Saturday and the trough closes off into a low over southern
Nevada/southern California. This is a Rex block pattern, which
will deflect systems well to the north of the region, keeping the
weather dry. A strong surface pressure gradient develops with this
pattern. Breezy northerly winds are expected in the Valley by
Friday afternoon, with gusty north to easterly winds in the
mountains peaking Friday night. The winds should gradually
diminish Saturday as the low shifts southward.

Dry and seasonably mild weekend is expected. The ridging should
break down early next week as the ridge flattens out. Some
moisture riding over the ridge could potentially spread some
precipitation into far northern California/southern Oregon after
next weekend. EK


&&

.Aviation...

VFR is expected late this afternoon and early this evening over
most of the Valley, but MVFR vsibilities are expected to quickly
return by around 04z. VLIFR/LIFR conditions should redevelop in
fog and low ceilings for most of valley through the morning hours
(around 06-09z). An exception to this may be RDD, which could have
enough north winds to maintain VFR. Fog/low ceilings will
gradually erode Monday morning. EK


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KREV 252259
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW IT AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 252259
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW IT AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 252259
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW IT AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 252259
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW WEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA (BAJA CALIFORNIA) WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A TROUGH ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES. FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA MONDAY THIS WILL JUST BRING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ABOUT 7000 FEET.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS NORTH
INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. TO ITS DETRIMENT, THE LOW WILL BE
SQUEEZING BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN THE LOW IT AS IT MOVES OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE WEAKENED FORCING THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THIS IN MIND, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.

IMPACTS FROM TUESDAY`S LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
BE LOW END WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW INCHES EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME DELAYS IF CHAIN CONTROLS ARE ENACTED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO AFTERNOON GROUND/ROAD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MELTING OF ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY BELOW 8000-8500 FEET.

WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK IMPULSE/TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM TUESDAY`S LOW. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
AXIS CENTERED AROUND 125W/25N, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DEEPENING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPS AROUND
THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ONCE AGAIN THE RIDGE WINS OUT AND EXPANDS WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH PUSHES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO,
TAKING ALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW WILL DROP, BUT EITHER WAY THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

IT STILL APPEARS GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE EXITING LOW WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND,
REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS
CLEARING SKIES HELPS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA.
FOR WESTERN NEVADA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND KTRK TONIGHT DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS66 KMTR 252248
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
248 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KMTR 252248
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
248 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:48 PM PST SUNDAY...FOG HAS CLEARED FROM ALL
AREAS IN THE CWA...BUT EVEN WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...AREAS AROUND THE
GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM UP. THE
COOLEST LOCATION AS OF 2 PM WAS NAPA AIRPORT AT A CLAMMY 54
DEGREES. OAKLAND AND HAYWARD ARE 13 AND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...AND ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE WIND. YESTERDAY MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED DOWN-SLOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WHILE TODAY WINDS HAVE
SWITCHED TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS FROM THE
MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD HAVE WARMED TO THE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
CURRENTLY WATSONVILLE AND SALINAS ARE REPORTING 80 AND 81 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE HIGH SO FAR TODAY AT THE WEATHER OFFICE IN
MONTEREY HAS BEEN 77 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
MONTEREY OR SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. 2 PM TEMPERATURES AT SFO AND MRY
AIRPORTS ARE 23 DEGREES APART: 57 VERSUS 80.

BEGINNING TOMORROW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL END.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 PM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KLOX 252207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTSING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTSING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTSING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 252207
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
207 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...

VERY WARM LATE JANUARY DAY TODAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT
AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. (WITH A
CUTOFF LOW W OF BAJA). AS OF 2PM RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED AT WFO
OXNARD AND THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...AT 84 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY.
SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL SITES WERE ALSO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TYING
OR BREAKING A RECORD. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO LA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH.

AS OF 2PM...NE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTSING 45-50 MPH IN THE LA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 35 MPH GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE OXNARD
PLAIN. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THEIR COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
45 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGELINES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW W OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE NW ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS SOCAL. POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF LA COUNTY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING TIME
PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES N. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT ALTITUDE. NO T-STORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THEIR WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LESS THAN
500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED IF THERE IS A T-STORM OR TWO WELL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY
EVENING.

MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY WERE
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS A WEAK RIDGE POPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND FEWER CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...

LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WE`LL SEE HOW THAT GOES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS AND THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ALSO HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO
THE SE AND RIDGING/OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/200 PM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF CENTRAL BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND SANTA MONICA BASIN. OTHERWISE THERE IS
A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23





000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23






000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23





000
FXUS66 KSGX 252148
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A NOW MOSTLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING
CURRENTLY...WITH 14.9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 5.8 MB
FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.2 MB AND 8.0 MB
RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE WRF WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB WINDS TO 40-45 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BURST OF
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESULTING
IN THE CURRENT BURST OF SANTA ANA WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WAS ALSO
PREDICTED WELL BY THE CANSAC WRF. THUS...SILL HILL IS NOW GUSTING TO
66 MPH...WITH BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN AT 54 MPH AND ALPINE AT 52 MPH.
HIGHLAND SPRINGS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY...WITH 50 MPH GUSTS AT
THE MOMENT. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THESE WINDS CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS THROUGH 4 PM...AND
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH 4
PM. WINDS OVER THE OTHER AREAS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 40 MPH...AND SO
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLOUDY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL ONLY
GET CLOUDIER AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT
THAT TIME. THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST
ACTIVE TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT
TIME. 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS
STILL SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES...AND LOCAL 1-1.25
INCHES...CURRENTLY FORECAST. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF WAS
ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FOR THIS REASON. MODELS BRING DECENT RAINFALL
TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE AREAS...SO
0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUS...QPF WAS ALSO BUMPED UPWARD A BIT IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST MAY ONLY SEE A 0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25
INCHES...AND THE HIGH DESERTS 0.10-0.25 INCHES AND LOCALLY 0.40
INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT
MAX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND TRACK...BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
252100Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KEKA 252143
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
143 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RIDGE MIGHT WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. BUT QPF WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WENT
WITH THE CONSMODEL FOR MOST OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCEC, KACV AND UKI OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LONGER
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252143
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
143 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RIDGE MIGHT WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. BUT QPF WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WENT
WITH THE CONSMODEL FOR MOST OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCEC, KACV AND UKI OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LONGER
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 252143
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
143 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RIDGE MIGHT WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. BUT QPF WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY DUE TO
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WENT
WITH THE CONSMODEL FOR MOST OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCEC, KACV AND UKI OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS OCCURRING.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LONGER
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 252107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING
NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6
KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
CIGS AOB 6K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY
SLOW CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY
BLOWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION. RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...AND
INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MON AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES
AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 252107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING
NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6
KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
CIGS AOB 6K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY
SLOW CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY
BLOWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION. RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...AND
INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MON AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES
AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 252107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING
NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6
KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
CIGS AOB 6K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY
SLOW CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY
BLOWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION. RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...AND
INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MON AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES
AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 252107
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND IN ITS WAKE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 120W HAS NEARLY STALLED AS THE PACIFIC NW
BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BE PICKED UP WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...OPENING AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSFORMATION MATERIALIZES...DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THETA-E ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1.25 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD (EQUATING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST RECENT 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND VARIOUS 09Z/12Z/15Z ENSEMBLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEFINITIVELY SUGGEST MORE BACKING OF
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...SATURATED
ASCENT STRUCTURE LOOKS MORE ROBUST THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHILE DRIER DOWNSLOPING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ATTEMPTS TO INHIBIT
A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO CNTRL ARIZONA.
HAVE REFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE DISTINCTLY TO REFLECT THESE
PROCESSES...WHILE ALSO CONSIDERING EFFECTS ON FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS. 09Z/15Z ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THE
CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF BETTER ASCENT...WITH QPF TOTALS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.50 AROUND THE YUMA VICINITY...BUT ONLY 0.10-0.25
THROUGHOUT CNTRL ARIZONA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH
DOWNGLIDE SUBSIDENCE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THE SINKING MOTION....MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES REPLETE
WITH OCCASIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING
RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD. HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE PHX AREA. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CIGS HOLDING
NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN...WITH CIGS AOB 6K FT TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AOB 6
KNOTS...PERHAPS EVEN BECOMING RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...LIGHT RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PHX AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUES
MORNING. CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 4-6K FT RANGE...WITH FEW-SCT SCUD LAYERS DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3K
FT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END TUES
MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
CIGS AOB 6K FT TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUES...WITH ONLY
SLOW CLEARING EXPECTED ON TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY
BLOWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION. RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE KIPL AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...AND
INTO THE KBLH AREA BY MON AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 3-5K FT AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES
AT TIMES DURING THIS RAIN EVENT...WITH WINDS FAVORING AT NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT KBLH...AND WESTERLY AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KHNX 251846
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1046 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015


.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER INCREASED FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.


.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TODAY AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251846
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1046 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015


.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER INCREASED FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.


.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TODAY AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251846
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1046 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015


.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER INCREASED FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.


.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TODAY AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251846
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1046 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015


.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER INCREASED FOR SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.


.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY TODAY AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 251845
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KLOX 251845
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).


&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES












000
FXUS66 KLOX 251800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
959 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KMTR 251752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU 3PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU 3PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU 3PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251752
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
952 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY... PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 19Z HOWEVER LINGERING HZ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT AREAS OF HAZE.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:46 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU 3PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 251747
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z

AT 0920Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 FT
AND IS 22 DEGREES F AT THE TOP.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 251747
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z

AT 0920Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 FT
AND IS 22 DEGREES F AT THE TOP.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSTO 251700
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong ridge continues over the area with clear skies other than
the footprint of fog and stratus in the Central Valley. Appears
visibilities this morning are lowest in the valley from about
Sacramento north to Red Bluff with several sites reporting less
than 1/4 mile visibility. Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
this area until 11 AM.

We hold out hope for an earlier fog dispersal today as strong
offshore flow continues (Reno to Sacramento gradient is over 8
mbs), though not quite as strong as yesterday morning, and morning
profiler data indicates the depth of the fog/stratus is several
hundred feet less than Saturday. North valley likely to be
considerably cooler than Saturday as gradients have reversed and
Redding won`t see as much north wind today.

Updates out shortly.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Strong upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over northern
California this morning. Skies are mostly clear again early this
morning, except for the persistent fog and low clouds across the
Central Valley. North to northeast winds across parts of the area
have steadily weakened, with a light SE wind now being favored
across much of the Valley. This is helping to push the fog and low
clouds northward, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see some fog
reach Redding by morning. Visibilities are hovering at around 1/4
mile, which is not as dense as the last several nights.

Fog and low clouds will again be slow to clear out across much of
the Valley today, with many locations struggling to climb out of
the 50s. The Northern Sac Valley and foothills should again warm
up nicely today, with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

The upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on Monday,
allowing for some synoptic cooling. Fog should again be prevalent
in parts of the Central Valley however. We should also begin to
see increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system
off the Baja California coast moves northward.

The aforementioned system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. This
system is weak at best, bringing little impact to the area
(mostly to the Sierra). Models are now in pretty good agreement,
showing the best chance of precipitation occurring on Tuesday.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the Valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this
point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest
and Norcal will bring fair skies and well above normal
temperatures to most of the CWA through the extended period. An
area of surface high pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Great Basin will create mainly north to east
winds over the forecast area with these winds becoming breezy at
times. The tightest surface gradients and therefore the likely
strongest winds are forecast for late Friday on through the
weekend. Northerly winds in the teens are forecast for the valley
during this time with some sustained winds in the 20 mph range
over the Sierra. A weak low pressure system centered off the coast
of Baja will linger there through most of the extended period.
This system may pivot a few light showers up the Sierra bringing a
slight chance of showers over the crest Friday and Saturday
south of Tahoe. Otherwise...this system is not expected to have a
significant impact on the forecast area during the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...
Valley VLIFR/LIFR conditions in fog and low ceilings most of
valley, except KRDD, through the morning hours. The nrn SJ valley
has less fog, but still has LIFR ceilings. Fog/ceilings will erode
from edge, especially the north and west sides by late morning.
LIFR in nrn SJ valley will likely stay into aftn. Clouds tops
012-015 based on visible Sutter Buttes. Winds below 10 knots lower
elevations with NE-E winds gusting to 20 to 35 knots over higher
elevations. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 11 am pst this morning central
sacramento valley...northern sacramento valley...southern
sacramento valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSTO 251700
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong ridge continues over the area with clear skies other than
the footprint of fog and stratus in the Central Valley. Appears
visibilities this morning are lowest in the valley from about
Sacramento north to Red Bluff with several sites reporting less
than 1/4 mile visibility. Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
this area until 11 AM.

We hold out hope for an earlier fog dispersal today as strong
offshore flow continues (Reno to Sacramento gradient is over 8
mbs), though not quite as strong as yesterday morning, and morning
profiler data indicates the depth of the fog/stratus is several
hundred feet less than Saturday. North valley likely to be
considerably cooler than Saturday as gradients have reversed and
Redding won`t see as much north wind today.

Updates out shortly.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
Strong upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over northern
California this morning. Skies are mostly clear again early this
morning, except for the persistent fog and low clouds across the
Central Valley. North to northeast winds across parts of the area
have steadily weakened, with a light SE wind now being favored
across much of the Valley. This is helping to push the fog and low
clouds northward, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see some fog
reach Redding by morning. Visibilities are hovering at around 1/4
mile, which is not as dense as the last several nights.

Fog and low clouds will again be slow to clear out across much of
the Valley today, with many locations struggling to climb out of
the 50s. The Northern Sac Valley and foothills should again warm
up nicely today, with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

The upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on Monday,
allowing for some synoptic cooling. Fog should again be prevalent
in parts of the Central Valley however. We should also begin to
see increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system
off the Baja California coast moves northward.

The aforementioned system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. This
system is weak at best, bringing little impact to the area
(mostly to the Sierra). Models are now in pretty good agreement,
showing the best chance of precipitation occurring on Tuesday.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the Valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this
point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)...
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest
and Norcal will bring fair skies and well above normal
temperatures to most of the CWA through the extended period. An
area of surface high pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Great Basin will create mainly north to east
winds over the forecast area with these winds becoming breezy at
times. The tightest surface gradients and therefore the likely
strongest winds are forecast for late Friday on through the
weekend. Northerly winds in the teens are forecast for the valley
during this time with some sustained winds in the 20 mph range
over the Sierra. A weak low pressure system centered off the coast
of Baja will linger there through most of the extended period.
This system may pivot a few light showers up the Sierra bringing a
slight chance of showers over the crest Friday and Saturday
south of Tahoe. Otherwise...this system is not expected to have a
significant impact on the forecast area during the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...
Valley VLIFR/LIFR conditions in fog and low ceilings most of
valley, except KRDD, through the morning hours. The nrn SJ valley
has less fog, but still has LIFR ceilings. Fog/ceilings will erode
from edge, especially the north and west sides by late morning.
LIFR in nrn SJ valley will likely stay into aftn. Clouds tops
012-015 based on visible Sutter Buttes. Winds below 10 knots lower
elevations with NE-E winds gusting to 20 to 35 knots over higher
elevations. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 11 am pst this morning central
sacramento valley...northern sacramento valley...southern
sacramento valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSGX 251653
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WESTWARD DRIFTING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST TO THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
ARE OVERALL WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING 50 MPH GUSTS AT SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 45 MPH GUSTS AT FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS...47 MPH GUSTS AT POTRERO AND 43 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK...AND 42 MPH GUSTS AT ALPINE. THE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY PARTLY
DUE TO DIMINISHED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH ARE NOW AT 15.3
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 6.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.4 MB AND 8.0 MB RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO.
ALSO...THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT
850 MB COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING DOWN FROM 35 KT TO 25 KT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS UP TO
40-45 KT FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE CANSAC WRF WHICH
SHOWS A BURST OF WINDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS...THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 2 PM TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WELL.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR DUE TO THE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH SOME WAVE CLOUDS PRODUCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE WHOLE COLUMN
BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS STILL
SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 1 INCHES FORECAST. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. MODELS BRING DECENT
RAINFALL TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF
BEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE
AREAS...SO 0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
THE LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST AND HIGH DESERTS MAY ONLY SEE A
0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25 INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
251630Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23






000
FXUS66 KSGX 251653
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. A SECOND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A WESTWARD DRIFTING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL BAJA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST TO THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
ARE OVERALL WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING 50 MPH GUSTS AT SILL HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND 45 MPH GUSTS AT FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS...47 MPH GUSTS AT POTRERO AND 43 MPH AT PLEASANTS
PEAK...AND 42 MPH GUSTS AT ALPINE. THE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY PARTLY
DUE TO DIMINISHED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH ARE NOW AT 15.3
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY AND 6.7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...COMPARED TO 17.4 MB AND 8.0 MB RESPECTIVELY 24 HOURS AGO.
ALSO...THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING SHOWS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT
850 MB COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING DOWN FROM 35 KT TO 25 KT.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS UP TO
40-45 KT FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES FOR THAT TIME. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE CANSAC WRF WHICH
SHOWS A BURST OF WINDS OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS...THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
BEYOND 2 PM TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND ORANGE
COUNTY...THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WELL.

THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING TODAY...AS DAY-TIME HIGHS REACH 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR DUE TO THE
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH SOME WAVE CLOUDS PRODUCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SAN DIEGO VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTH ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN.
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW ELEVATIONS. THE WHOLE COLUMN
BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODELS STILL
SHOW BEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
STORM-TOTAL OF 0.50 TO 1 INCHES FORECAST. HOWEVER...CANSAC WRF AND
NAM4 ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL...SO QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. MODELS BRING DECENT
RAINFALL TO THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO NORMAL DUE TO THE AXIS OF
BEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HITTING THOSE
AREAS...SO 0.25 INCHES TO LOCALLY 0.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS LOOK TO GET SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO
THE LOWER DESERTS...WHILE THE COAST AND HIGH DESERTS MAY ONLY SEE A
0.10 TO LOCALLY 0.25 INCHES. THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-8500 FEET DURING THE TIME OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE THOSE
ELEVATIONS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY...AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
251630Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10000-25000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW
THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 26/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAY-TIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND
VALLEYS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23





000
FXUS66 KMTR 251652
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:24 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SONOMA COUNTY
             THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251652
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:24 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SONOMA COUNTY
             THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251652
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:24 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SONOMA COUNTY
             THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251652
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
852 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:52 AM PST SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE
EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENTLY ONLY SANTA ROSA AIRPORT
IS INDICATING DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE)...WITH 1 TO 3 MILES AT
CONCORD...LIVERMORE AND NAPA AIRPORTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IN CURRENTLY FOGGY/CLOUDY
AREAS THERE WILL NATURALLY BE A DELAY TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THAT AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH. THIS COULD ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...AND MOST LIKELY
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATER IN
THE DAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT TO THE EAST AND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL END. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:24 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM AND WEAKENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
COASTLINE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS TAPERED OFF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SONOMA COUNTY
             THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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000
FXUS65 KPSR 251637
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 119W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE...HOWEVER
SHOULD START MAKING THE TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE PACIFIC NW BLOCKING
HIGH IS NOW BECOMING ORIENTED TOWARDS A MORE EASTERN LATITUDE.
THICKER CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM SONORA IS HITTING THE LIMITING
STREAMLINE JUST SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT WILL ONLY BE SLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REDUCE DEWPOINTS AND
FINE TUNE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRACES...BUT ALL IN ALL A FABULOUS
WEATHER DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

EARLY LOOK AT 12Z OPERATIONAL DATA AND VARIOUS 06Z/09Z ENSEMBLE AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS THE HIGHER THETA-E
PLUME AND STRONGEST ASCENT SHIFTING TO THE WEST...ONLY GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN
TRENDS POINT TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FOR 0.25-0.50 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS INTO THE
IMMEDIATE PHOENIX VICINITY. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECAST
GRIDS TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS...AND WILL REEVALUATE WITH ADDITIONAL
HIGH RESOLUTION 12Z/15Z MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251637
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NEAR 26N 119W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE...HOWEVER
SHOULD START MAKING THE TURN TO THE NORTH AS THE PACIFIC NW BLOCKING
HIGH IS NOW BECOMING ORIENTED TOWARDS A MORE EASTERN LATITUDE.
THICKER CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM SONORA IS HITTING THE LIMITING
STREAMLINE JUST SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA...AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT WILL ONLY BE SLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REDUCE DEWPOINTS AND
FINE TUNE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRACES...BUT ALL IN ALL A FABULOUS
WEATHER DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

EARLY LOOK AT 12Z OPERATIONAL DATA AND VARIOUS 06Z/09Z ENSEMBLE AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS THE HIGHER THETA-E
PLUME AND STRONGEST ASCENT SHIFTING TO THE WEST...ONLY GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN
TRENDS POINT TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FOR 0.25-0.50 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND LESSER AMOUNTS INTO THE
IMMEDIATE PHOENIX VICINITY. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECAST
GRIDS TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS...AND WILL REEVALUATE WITH ADDITIONAL
HIGH RESOLUTION 12Z/15Z MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015/
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KEKA 251218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR
MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE (11-3.9U) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG IN
THE VALLEYS NORTH OF UKIAH. NORTHEAST FLOW HAS GENERALLY KEPT THE
COASTS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND THIS MAY CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL BE BRIEF SO ONLY HINTED AT THEM IN THE TAFS. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON HAZE ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

THIS EVENING SOME CLOUDS MAY COME IN ALONG THE COAST AGAIN...MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SHOULD PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK OFF THE COAST. INLAND VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY SEE SIMILAR FOG AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THESE
WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SO SHORT PERIOD WAVES NEAR THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN SMALL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE MOVING INTO THE WATERS. CURRENTLY
IT HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 8 FT AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING TO DIMINISH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK BRINGING IN ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
SWELL. IT LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A
SMALL SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 251218
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
418 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR
MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML/JT

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE (11-3.9U) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG IN
THE VALLEYS NORTH OF UKIAH. NORTHEAST FLOW HAS GENERALLY KEPT THE
COASTS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND THIS MAY CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT THEY WILL BE BRIEF SO ONLY HINTED AT THEM IN THE TAFS. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON HAZE ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

THIS EVENING SOME CLOUDS MAY COME IN ALONG THE COAST AGAIN...MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
SHOULD PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK OFF THE COAST. INLAND VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY SEE SIMILAR FOG AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THESE
WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SO SHORT PERIOD WAVES NEAR THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN SMALL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE MOVING INTO THE WATERS. CURRENTLY
IT HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 8 FT AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING TO DIMINISH ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK BRINGING IN ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
SWELL. IT LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT
WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A
SMALL SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KLOX 251151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
YESTERDAYS HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO JUST
ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BUT UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS AND COVERAGE
AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. WELL
ALMOST THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ACROSS A FEW REMOTE MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL TODAY AS 580 DM HGTS COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS RECORDS TODAY COULD FALL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY ARE OUT OF REACH.

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z

AT 0920Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 FT
AND IS 22 DEGREES F AT THE TOP.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...25/300 AM

SWELLS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS OF ZONES 650 AND 655
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY... IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PORTION OFF
THE COAST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEG


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KLOX 251151
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
YESTERDAYS HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO JUST
ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BUT UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS AND COVERAGE
AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. WELL
ALMOST THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ACROSS A FEW REMOTE MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL TODAY AS 580 DM HGTS COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS RECORDS TODAY COULD FALL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY ARE OUT OF REACH.

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z

AT 0920Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 FT
AND IS 22 DEGREES F AT THE TOP.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...25/300 AM

SWELLS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS OF ZONES 650 AND 655
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY... IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PORTION OFF
THE COAST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEG


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251147
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
347 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:40 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.
THERE`LL BE AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE IN THE EAST AND NORTH
BAYS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND/OR MORNING HOURS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS EXCEPT UP TO
10-12 KNOTS AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA/JOHNSON

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251142
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
YESTERDAYS HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO JUST
ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BUT UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS AND COVERAGE
AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. WELL
ALMOST THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ACROSS A FEW REMOTE MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL TODAY AS 580 DM HGTS COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS RECORDS TODAY COULD FALL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY ARE OUT OF REACH.

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1130Z



&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

SWELLS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS OF ZONES 650 AND 655
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY... IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PORTION OFF
THE COAST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEG


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 251142
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
YESTERDAYS HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO JUST
ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE STILL RUNNING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BUT UPPER
SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS AND COVERAGE
AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. WELL
ALMOST THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW WARNING LEVEL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
ACROSS A FEW REMOTE MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG DEAL TODAY AS 580 DM HGTS COMBINE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS RECORDS TODAY COULD FALL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE DAY ARE OUT OF REACH.

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1130Z



&&

.MARINE...

25/300 AM

SWELLS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS OF ZONES 650 AND 655
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY... IN PARTICULAR FOR THE PORTION OFF
THE COAST OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEG


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS66 KMTR 251133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
333 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
333 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
333 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 251133
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
333 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...DESPITE THE STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL VALLEY HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER
THIS REGION. REGARDLESS...THESE CONDITIONS (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RAPIDLY WARMING UNTIL BURN-OFF OCCURS
LATE IN THE MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. WITH
THIS...NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THAT REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AND NORTH BAY
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA...MAINLY OVER
MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED
APART AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES FALL OVER THE
REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND DO VERY LITTLE (OR NOTHING)
TO HELP IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER WARMING TREND CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR LATE IN
TH WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY (1/25)  JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD        77/1934       79/1962
SAN RAFAEL       70/2014       82/1962
NAPA             83/1899       85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO    74/1899       79/1962
SFO AIRPORT      68/2011       73/2014
OAKLAND          73/2014       78/2014
OAK AIRPORT      70/2014       77/2014
RICHMOND         69/2011       76/1962
LIVERMORE        73/1911       77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW    72/2014       76/1948
SAN JOSE         71/2014       79/1962
GILROY           77/2014       80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY         78/1942         84/2014
SANTA CRUZ       80/1899         84/2014
SALINAS          78/2014         87/2014
SNS AIRPORT      78/2014         86/2014
KING CITY        77/2014         86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:29 AM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS
NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KSGX 251119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
SOME COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT WINDS CAUSED MIXING OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT...MAINLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS AND AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS...WILL GET A WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S AS OF 3 AM.

THE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS ON SATURDAY.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD BEGAN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS AND FAR
INLAND VALLEYS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME CONTINUING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 00Z GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST AND INSULTINGLY DRIER. IF THE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WERE TO HOLD...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LIKELY WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO   AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









000
FXUS66 KSGX 251119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE WARMER WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A SECOND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH OFFSHORE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
SOME COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT WINDS CAUSED MIXING OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT...MAINLY THE COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS AND AREAS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS...WILL GET A WARM START WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S AS OF 3 AM.

THE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS ON SATURDAY.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
SHOWERS COULD BEGAN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE
COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH WITH MOSTLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE DESERTS AND FAR
INLAND VALLEYS WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME CONTINUING MODEL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS THE 00Z GFS WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST AND INSULTINGLY DRIER. IF THE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WERE TO HOLD...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
251000Z...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN LIKELY WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
200 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND AREAS TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE AREAS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO   AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB










000
FXUS66 KSTO 251117
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over northern
California this morning. Skies are mostly clear again early this
morning, except for the persistent fog and low clouds across the
Central Valley. North to northeast winds across parts of the area
have steadily weakened, with a light SE wind now being favored
across much of the Valley. This is helping to push the fog and
low clouds northward, and it wouldnt be surprising to see some
fog reach Redding by morning. Visibilities are hovering at around
1/4 mile, which is not as dense as the last several nights.

Fog and low clouds will again be slow to clear out across much of
the Valley today, with many locations struggling to climb out of
the 50s. The Northern Sac Valley and foothills should again warm
up nicely today, with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

The upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on Monday,
allowing for some synoptic cooling. Fog should again be prevalent
in parts of the Central Valley however. We should also begin to
see increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system
off the Baja California coast moves northward.

The aforementioned system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. This
system is weak at best, bringing little impact to the area
(mostly to the Sierra). Models are now in pretty good agreement,
showing the best chance of precipitation occurring on Tuesday.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the Valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this
point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest
and Norcal will bring fair skies and well above normal
temperatures to most of the CWA through the extended period. An
area of surface high pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Great Basin will create mainly north to east
winds over the forecast area with these winds becoming breezy at
times. The tightest surface gradients and therefore the likely
strongest winds are forecast for late Friday on through the
weekend. Northerly winds in the teens are forecast for the valley
during this time with some sustained winds in the 20 mph range
over the Sierra. A weak low pressure system centered off the coast
of Baja will linger there through most of the extended period.
This system may pivot a few light showers up the Sierra bringing
a slight chance of showers over the crest Friday and Saturday
south of Tahoe. Otherwise...this system is not expected to have a
significant impact on the forecast area during the extended
period.


&&

.Aviation...

Valley IFR conditions in fog and low ceilings south of KCIC and
in the Delta with MVFR north through the morning hours. MVFR
conditions valley and delta after about 21z returning to IFR
conditions same areas after about 03z Monday. Elsewhere...VFR
under upper level high pressure ridge. Winds below 15 knots lower
elevations with east winds gusting to 25 to 35 knots over higher
elevations.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSTO 251117
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
317 AM PST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through Monday in fog-free areas. Light precipitation is
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over northern
California this morning. Skies are mostly clear again early this
morning, except for the persistent fog and low clouds across the
Central Valley. North to northeast winds across parts of the area
have steadily weakened, with a light SE wind now being favored
across much of the Valley. This is helping to push the fog and
low clouds northward, and it wouldnt be surprising to see some
fog reach Redding by morning. Visibilities are hovering at around
1/4 mile, which is not as dense as the last several nights.

Fog and low clouds will again be slow to clear out across much of
the Valley today, with many locations struggling to climb out of
the 50s. The Northern Sac Valley and foothills should again warm
up nicely today, with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

The upper ridge will shift east into the Great Basin on Monday,
allowing for some synoptic cooling. Fog should again be prevalent
in parts of the Central Valley however. We should also begin to
see increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system
off the Baja California coast moves northward.

The aforementioned system will skirt by the area on Tuesday. This
system is weak at best, bringing little impact to the area
(mostly to the Sierra). Models are now in pretty good agreement,
showing the best chance of precipitation occurring on Tuesday.
The Sierra will likely see some precipitation, with a inch or so
of snow possible above 6000 ft. Parts of the Valley may see a
sprinkle or light shower, but odds don`t look great at this
point.

Showers may linger over the mountains through Tuesday night, with
dry weather expected on Wednesday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest
and Norcal will bring fair skies and well above normal
temperatures to most of the CWA through the extended period. An
area of surface high pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Great Basin will create mainly north to east
winds over the forecast area with these winds becoming breezy at
times. The tightest surface gradients and therefore the likely
strongest winds are forecast for late Friday on through the
weekend. Northerly winds in the teens are forecast for the valley
during this time with some sustained winds in the 20 mph range
over the Sierra. A weak low pressure system centered off the coast
of Baja will linger there through most of the extended period.
This system may pivot a few light showers up the Sierra bringing
a slight chance of showers over the crest Friday and Saturday
south of Tahoe. Otherwise...this system is not expected to have a
significant impact on the forecast area during the extended
period.


&&

.Aviation...

Valley IFR conditions in fog and low ceilings south of KCIC and
in the Delta with MVFR north through the morning hours. MVFR
conditions valley and delta after about 21z returning to IFR
conditions same areas after about 03z Monday. Elsewhere...VFR
under upper level high pressure ridge. Winds below 15 knots lower
elevations with east winds gusting to 25 to 35 knots over higher
elevations.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KHNX 251100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...
MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 251100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REMAINS AS THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2:30 AM PST...MAIN
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE OBSERVING VISIBILITY VALUES OF UNDER 1000
FEET. AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REX BLOCK
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN...FOG WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE VALLEY. YET...OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEY FLOOR AND THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
CURRENTLY...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH NOON THIS SUNDAY.

CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW UNDER THE HIGH THAT FORMED THE REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A TROUGH...CURRENTLY PASSING NORTH
OF HAWAII...AND SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA. AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES. MODEL PROG BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80 OF AN
INCH OF WATER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. BASED
ON UPPER AIR OB CLIMO...KEDW/S VALUE OF NEAR 0.80 OF AN INCH WILL
PLACE IT AT PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. THEREFORE... A
GOOD POTENTIAL EXIST OF HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP FALL OVER KERN
COUNTY ON MONDAY.

MODEL PRECIP TIMING AS THE RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
BAKERSFIELD NEAR MIDDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW MOJAVE RECEIVING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING AND BAKERSFIELD BEFORE NOON. WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS
DO SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT MOJAVE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
BAKERSFIELD ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIP VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECT AND LIGHTER
FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. YET...FRESNO COULD ALSO SEE ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARMER AIR
HOLD MORE WATER.

MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP BEGINS TO DIMINISH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BEFORE
PRECIP TERMINATES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM. THEREFORE...
WILL NOT SHOW VERY HIGH PROB OF PRECIP VALUES WITH THE SECOND
STORM AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
FIRST STORM...THE FOG THREAT WILL INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SECOND STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 20Z TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015...FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...
MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949

KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS65 KREV 251032
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
CONTINUING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND A
WEAK LOW AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPS WITH SOME RECORDS
IN THE SIERRA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE 60S FOR ALMOST
ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS AS RIDGE TEMPS APPROACH 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND THE LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS ITS TREK NORTH.
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY DESPITE THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL ALSO HELP TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS, EVENTUALLY DROPPING
NEAR OR BELOW 7000 FEET AT PRECIP ONSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.

THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW LEVELS AVERAGING AROUND 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENT. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE LOW, THE
FORCING IS WEAK SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT; A NICE HIGH POP,
LOW QPF EVENT. EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE
DEPTH OF DRY AIR IS LESS AT ONSET. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIMITED IMPACTS
EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. WHILE SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AT
LAKE LEVEL AROUND TAHOE, EXPECT ROADS THERE TO REMAIN WET.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY, SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE SIERRA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW IS LOW SO WE WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WEAK BAGGY TROUGH THEN SETS UP OVER
WESTERN NV WITH A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 MAINLY ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES BY FRIDAY, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE
IN CASE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENDS UP DELAYING ITS PUSH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BAJA COAST. THIS WOULD END THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES SO WE WILL
GO DRY ALL AREAS STARTING SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND/OR LIGHT NORTH TO EAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS
OVERHEAD, WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY EAST RIDGE WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME TURBULENCE NEAR THE
SIERRA TERMINALS MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE EAST WINDS
WILL ALSO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KTRK TODAY. AS RIDGE WINDS
DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT, PATCHY FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS, A
RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES. FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 251032
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
CONTINUING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND A
WEAK LOW AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPS WITH SOME RECORDS
IN THE SIERRA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE 60S FOR ALMOST
ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS AS RIDGE TEMPS APPROACH 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND THE LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS ITS TREK NORTH.
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY DESPITE THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL ALSO HELP TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS, EVENTUALLY DROPPING
NEAR OR BELOW 7000 FEET AT PRECIP ONSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.

THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW LEVELS AVERAGING AROUND 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENT. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE LOW, THE
FORCING IS WEAK SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT; A NICE HIGH POP,
LOW QPF EVENT. EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE
DEPTH OF DRY AIR IS LESS AT ONSET. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIMITED IMPACTS
EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. WHILE SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AT
LAKE LEVEL AROUND TAHOE, EXPECT ROADS THERE TO REMAIN WET.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY, SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE SIERRA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW IS LOW SO WE WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WEAK BAGGY TROUGH THEN SETS UP OVER
WESTERN NV WITH A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 MAINLY ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES BY FRIDAY, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE
IN CASE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENDS UP DELAYING ITS PUSH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BAJA COAST. THIS WOULD END THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES SO WE WILL
GO DRY ALL AREAS STARTING SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND/OR LIGHT NORTH TO EAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS
OVERHEAD, WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY EAST RIDGE WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME TURBULENCE NEAR THE
SIERRA TERMINALS MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE EAST WINDS
WILL ALSO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KTRK TODAY. AS RIDGE WINDS
DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT, PATCHY FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS, A
RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES. FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS66 KMTR 250615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1015 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SATURDAY...WARM CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT NOT ALL.
PERSISTENT FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY CREPT WESTWARD INTO THE
DELTA...AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND LOCALLY INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. EVEN AFTER FOG CLEARED TODAY...A LIGHT EAST
WIND CONTINUED TO ADVECT A DAMP CHILLY AIRMASS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND INTO AREAS AROUND SAN PABLO AND NORTHERN SF BAY. THE
RESULT: HIGHS OF ONLY 57 DEGREES IN SAN RAFAEL AND AT THE NAPA
AIRPORT TODAY. MEANWHILE...NOT FAR AWAY IN OAKLAND...DRY DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS HELPED PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S...RESULTING IN A
RECORD HIGH AT THE OAKLAND MUSEUM.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD
WHERE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION TIED A RECORD WITH A HIGH OF 74. THE WARMEST LOCATION WAS
CARMEL VALLEY AT 78.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA COUNTY. EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE LAST EVENING AND LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...IT`S LIKELY THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE FOGGY LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WILL SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED THE ADDITION OF FOG
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WARMER CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO COOL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS. DO
THINK...HOWEVER...THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM TOMORROW FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE DELTA AS
THESE AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPACTED MORNING FOG AND PROXIMITY
TO THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL VALLEY FOG BANK. EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE INCLUDED AN DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS FOR PLACES
LIKE SAN RAFAEL...CONCORD AND NAPA...AND OTHER SLIGHT MODIFICATION
ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY...AROUND
MONTEREY BAY...AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA. BY MONDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE LOW OFF BAJA TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NOR HAVE THEN BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGREE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE NAM FORECASTS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SF BAY AREA ON TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO GENERATES HIGHER
QPF WITH RAIN TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.75" IN SAN BENITO COUNTY...WHILE
THE MAXIMUM GFS RAINFALL IS ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF (12Z) IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND CHANCES MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS.

A WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SWITCHING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. AS OF 10 PM...BUOYS ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
WITH A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 250615
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1015 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SATURDAY...WARM CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT NOT ALL.
PERSISTENT FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY CREPT WESTWARD INTO THE
DELTA...AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND LOCALLY INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. EVEN AFTER FOG CLEARED TODAY...A LIGHT EAST
WIND CONTINUED TO ADVECT A DAMP CHILLY AIRMASS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND INTO AREAS AROUND SAN PABLO AND NORTHERN SF BAY. THE
RESULT: HIGHS OF ONLY 57 DEGREES IN SAN RAFAEL AND AT THE NAPA
AIRPORT TODAY. MEANWHILE...NOT FAR AWAY IN OAKLAND...DRY DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS HELPED PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S...RESULTING IN A
RECORD HIGH AT THE OAKLAND MUSEUM.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD
WHERE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION TIED A RECORD WITH A HIGH OF 74. THE WARMEST LOCATION WAS
CARMEL VALLEY AT 78.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA COUNTY. EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE LAST EVENING AND LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...IT`S LIKELY THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE FOGGY LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WILL SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED THE ADDITION OF FOG
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WARMER CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO COOL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS. DO
THINK...HOWEVER...THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM TOMORROW FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE DELTA AS
THESE AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPACTED MORNING FOG AND PROXIMITY
TO THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL VALLEY FOG BANK. EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE INCLUDED AN DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS FOR PLACES
LIKE SAN RAFAEL...CONCORD AND NAPA...AND OTHER SLIGHT MODIFICATION
ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY...AROUND
MONTEREY BAY...AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA. BY MONDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE LOW OFF BAJA TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NOR HAVE THEN BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGREE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE NAM FORECASTS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SF BAY AREA ON TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO GENERATES HIGHER
QPF WITH RAIN TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.75" IN SAN BENITO COUNTY...WHILE
THE MAXIMUM GFS RAINFALL IS ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF (12Z) IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND CHANCES MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS.

A WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SWITCHING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. AS OF 10 PM...BUOYS ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
WITH A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD. HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KSTO 250607
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Stratus/fog reforming and expanding Nwd quickly over the CWA mainly
S of KMYV. Higher resolution models infer the ST/Fog will continue
to spread Nwd possibly as far N as KRBL Sun morning. The RDD-SAC
gradient has switched signs indicating the Nly flow is weakening
which makes the possibility of the ST spreading a little farther Nwd
than Sat morning.

As the upper high center shifts over Norcal on Sun...winds will be
lighter...making erosion of the cloud deck slower given the low sun
angle. While the ST/fog has been generally eroding from the N with
the aid of N winds during the last couple of days...the position of
the high center just to the NE of interior Norcal should cause some
erosion of the cloud deck from the E or NE...as well as from the
N...given the offshore trajectory of the wind. Thus...the ST/fog may
linger over the Wrn portions of the cloud deck...and in Solano
Co...longer than in other areas...generally speaking. This will have
an effect on Max Temps...and we have lowered the Max temps a little
from SAC and SUU Swd into the Nrn San Joaquin Vly in the evening
update. Lighter Nly flow also means less adiabatic warming effects
for the Nrn Sac Vly and a lesser chance of tying or breaking max
temps records compared to today. For now...the max temps look O.K.
up there.    JHM


.Previous Discussion...

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are in better agreement on the track and timing of
this system. Looks like some precipitation will be possible along
the Sierra beginning Monday night and spreading northward on
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected to be around 6000-7000
feet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. The valley
has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but can`t completely rule
out a sprinkle or light shower.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

The weak low which is expected to develop off Baja California and
track through the Sierra should been mainly out of the area by early
Wednesday. There may be just a lingering light shower over the
Sierra crest with dry weather for the rest of the area. On Thursday
and Friday, a weak trough develops to the south and becomes an upper
low, with some moisture spreading into the Sierra south of I80. High
clouds will be the main affect for most of the area.

The upper low is forecast to slowly shift southward Saturday
and may spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra
as far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal for the northern Sacramento
Valley under upper ridging. Temperatures further south expected
to be near to a little above normal. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Low clouds/fog and LIFR conditions tonight in the Srn Sac and Nrn
San Joaquin Vly...possibly expanding Nwd towards KRBL Sun morning.
Elsewhere...VFR. Light winds in foggy areas...otherwise north to
east winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots over
Sierra...decreasing on Sun.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KLOX 250603 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
940 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...EVENING UPDATE.
STILL QUITE WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LAX-BFL GRADIENTS (NE TO SW DIRECTION) WERE
JUST UNDER -6MB WHILE THE LAX-BFL GRADIENT (N TO S DIRECTION) WERE
INCREASING TO JUST OVER -6MB. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE WIDE
SPREAD FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO A GOOD PART OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE USUAL WIND PRONE SANTA ANA LOCATIONS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BE FAIRLY STRONG...BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
AND UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CLOCKWISE AROUND EACH OTHER SETTING UP MORE OF A REX BLOCK
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE AS WELL AS
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOCAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE IN THE 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS TODAY`S TEMPS WENT...A RECORD HIGH TEMP WAS RECORDED AT
SANTA MARIA OF 82 DEGREES WHICH TIED THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN
1935. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...WHILE INTERIOR VALLEYS...LOWER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE IN THE 60S.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF 00Z MODEL CAME IN AND ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE COULD BE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS AS IT WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF ALSO
SHOWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RANGING FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST...TO
AROUND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND
MTNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS (MALIBU HILLS 82
MPH...CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH). MUCH OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS WERE
ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AT
BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z...

AT 0455Z AT KLAX... THERE IS NO INVERSION.

OVERALL...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAFS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS IN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.  OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT KVNY WITH A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OTHER LOS ANGELES COUNTY LOCATIONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM...
THE LARGE SWELL DIMINISHED ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ZONES 645/670/763. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TIL 3 AM SUN FOR ZONE 673 AS 10 FT SEAS
CONTINUED THIS EVENING AT THE SOUTH SANTA ROSA ISLAND BUOY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON HARBOR WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN MORNING. WINDS
DID DIMINISH THIS EVENING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A
300-310 DEGREE FETCH DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...SIRARD/30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES







000
FXUS66 KSGX 250502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...THEN A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT A FEW OF
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT CANYON. THE NORTHERN AREAS
IN PARTICULAR ARE SLACKENING OFF...WITH WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND
INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
WARNING LEVELS...SO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THE REASON WHY THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING IS DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ALSO LESS UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOW THE GRADIENTS LOWERING TO ABOUT 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...AND 9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS WERE 9 MB AND 14 MB RESPECTIVELY AT
THE SAME TIME THIS MORNING. ALSO...850 MB WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES
AND FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS AFTERWARDS GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE CANSAC
WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW DECENTLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MOVING NORTH ON MONDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO
MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...BEST PRECIPITATION STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM-TOTAL OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES...AND LOCALLY NEAR AN INCH FORECASTED. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4
ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL. MODELS HIT THE DESERTS DECENTLY HARD DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO THOSE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL COMPARED TO
WHAT THEY ARE USED TO...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MAYBE UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS AND COAST
COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH...ALTHOUGH THE CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 DO HINT AT HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. THE WARM NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-9000 FEET DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SUNDAY EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
LOWER ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY WERE TODAY. THE BIGGEST DROP-OFF TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MAX GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE...WITH
DAY-TIME HUMIDITIES FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL
BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF LATER SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON/JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA





000
FXUS66 KSGX 250502
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
902 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...THEN A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT A FEW OF
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS SILL HILL AND FREMONT CANYON. THE NORTHERN AREAS
IN PARTICULAR ARE SLACKENING OFF...WITH WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND
INTO THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
WARNING LEVELS...SO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THE REASON WHY THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING IS DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ALSO LESS UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOW THE GRADIENTS LOWERING TO ABOUT 7 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS
VEGAS...AND 9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS WERE 9 MB AND 14 MB RESPECTIVELY AT
THE SAME TIME THIS MORNING. ALSO...850 MB WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL FAVORED PASSES...CANYONS...COASTAL SLOPES
AND FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY ACTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS AFTERWARDS GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE CANSAC
WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW DECENTLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THAT TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MOVING NORTH ON MONDAY AND
INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN. SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AT THAT POINT SO
MOST OF THE RAIN MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WAS ADDED FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS.
THE WHOLE COLUMN BECOMES MOIST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE MODELS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. GFS AND NAM SHOW NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE PRETTY WEAK...SO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. NEVERTHELESS...BEST PRECIPITATION STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORM-TOTAL OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES...AND LOCALLY NEAR AN INCH FORECASTED. CANSAC WRF AND NAM4
ACTUALLY SHOW SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS GETTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
TOTAL. MODELS HIT THE DESERTS DECENTLY HARD DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO THOSE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL COMPARED TO
WHAT THEY ARE USED TO...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR MAYBE UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE VALLEYS AND COAST
COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH...ALTHOUGH THE CANSAC WRF AND NAM4 DO HINT AT HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. THE WARM NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH...AT AROUND 7500-9000 FEET DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
ABOVE THOSE ELEVATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
250400Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BELOW THE BANNING PASS AND OVER THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODERATE TO STRONG UDDFS AND
LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE
MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SUNDAY EVENING...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE SURF OF
3-6 FEET WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL
BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA
BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL
LOWER ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
THEY WERE TODAY. THE BIGGEST DROP-OFF TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE MAX GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE...WITH
DAY-TIME HUMIDITIES FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL
BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF LATER SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON/JT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 250459
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
859 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SATURDAY...WARM CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT NOT ALL.
PERSISTENT FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY CREPT WESTWARD INTO THE
DELTA...AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND LOCALLY INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. EVEN AFTER FOG CLEARED TODAY...A LIGHT EAST
WIND CONTINUED TO ADVECT A DAMP CHILLY AIRMASS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND INTO AREAS AROUND SAN PABLO AND NORTHERN SF BAY. THE
RESULT: HIGHS OF ONLY 57 DEGREES IN SAN RAFAEL AND AT THE NAPA
AIRPORT TODAY. MEANWHILE...NOT FAR AWAY IN OAKLAND...DRY DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS HELPED PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S...RESULTING IN A
RECORD HIGH AT THE OAKLAND MUSEUM.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD
WHERE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION TIED A RECORD WITH A HIGH OF 74. THE WARMEST LOCATION WAS
CARMEL VALLEY AT 78.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA COUNTY. EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE LAST EVENING AND LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...IT`S LIKELY THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE FOGGY LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WILL SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED THE ADDITION OF FOG
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WARMER CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO COOL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS. DO
THINK...HOWEVER...THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM TOMORROW FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE DELTA AS
THESE AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPACTED MORNING FOG AND PROXIMITY
TO THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL VALLEY FOG BANK. EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE INCLUDED AN DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS FOR PLACES
LIKE SAN RAFAEL...CONCORD AND NAPA...AND OTHER SLIGHT MODIFICATION
ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY...AROUND
MONTEREY BAY...AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA. BY MONDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE LOW OFF BAJA TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NOR HAVE THEN BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGREE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE NAM FORECASTS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SF BAY AREA ON TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO GENERATES HIGHER
QPF WITH RAIN TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.75" IN SAN BENITO COUNTY...WHILE
THE MAXIMUM GFS RAINFALL IS ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF (12Z) IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND CHANCES MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS.

A WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 250459
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
859 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST SATURDAY...WARM CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT NOT ALL.
PERSISTENT FOG IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY CREPT WESTWARD INTO THE
DELTA...AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND LOCALLY INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. EVEN AFTER FOG CLEARED TODAY...A LIGHT EAST
WIND CONTINUED TO ADVECT A DAMP CHILLY AIRMASS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND INTO AREAS AROUND SAN PABLO AND NORTHERN SF BAY. THE
RESULT: HIGHS OF ONLY 57 DEGREES IN SAN RAFAEL AND AT THE NAPA
AIRPORT TODAY. MEANWHILE...NOT FAR AWAY IN OAKLAND...DRY DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS HELPED PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S...RESULTING IN A
RECORD HIGH AT THE OAKLAND MUSEUM.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD
WHERE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE MONTEREY CLIMATE
STATION TIED A RECORD WITH A HIGH OF 74. THE WARMEST LOCATION WAS
CARMEL VALLEY AT 78.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN CONTRA
COSTA COUNTY. EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE LAST EVENING AND LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...IT`S LIKELY THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE FOGGY LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WILL SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A
FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED THE ADDITION OF FOG
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WARMER CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...EVEN THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE
AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO COOL. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND WRF
MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS. DO
THINK...HOWEVER...THAT GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM TOMORROW FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND NORTHERN SF BAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE DELTA AS
THESE AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IMPACTED MORNING FOG AND PROXIMITY
TO THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL VALLEY FOG BANK. EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE INCLUDED AN DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS FOR PLACES
LIKE SAN RAFAEL...CONCORD AND NAPA...AND OTHER SLIGHT MODIFICATION
ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY...AROUND
MONTEREY BAY...AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA. BY MONDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE LOW OFF BAJA TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NOR HAVE THEN BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS AGREE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE NAM FORECASTS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SF BAY AREA ON TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO GENERATES HIGHER
QPF WITH RAIN TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.75" IN SAN BENITO COUNTY...WHILE
THE MAXIMUM GFS RAINFALL IS ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF (12Z) IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND CHANCES MAY NEED TO
BE INCREASED FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS.

A WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE OUR AREA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
              SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250431 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...EVENING UPDATE.
STILL QUITE WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LAX-BFL GRADIENTS (NE TO SW DIRECTION) WERE
JUST UNDER -6MB WHILE THE LAX-BFL GRADIENT (N TO S DIRECTION) WERE
INCREASING TO JUST OVER -6MB. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE WIDE
SPREAD FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO A GOOD PART OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE USUAL WIND PRONE SANTA ANA LOCATIONS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BE FAIRLY STRONG...BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
AND UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CLOCKWISE AROUND EACH OTHER SETTING UP MORE OF A REX BLOCK
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE AS WELL AS
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOCAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE IN THE 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS TODAY`S TEMPS WENT...A RECORD HIGH TEMP WAS RECORDED AT
SANTA MARIA OF 82 DEGREES WHICH TIED THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN
1935. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...WHILE INTERIOR VALLEYS...LOWER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE IN THE 60S.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF 00Z MODEL CAME IN AND ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE COULD BE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS AS IT WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF ALSO
SHOWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RANGING FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST...TO
AROUND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND
MTNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS (MALIBU HILLS 82
MPH...CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH). MUCH OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS WERE
ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AT
BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2330Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT AT KLAX...
KBUR...AND KVNY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/03-25/09Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/07-25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM...
THE LARGE SWELL DIMINISHED ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ZONES 645/670/763. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TIL 3 AM SUN FOR ZONE 673 AS 10 FT SEAS
CONTINUED THIS EVENING AT THE SOUTH SANTA ROSA ISLAND BUOY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON HARBOR WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN MORNING. WINDS
DID DIMINISH THIS EVENING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A
300-310 DEGREE FETCH DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SIRARD/30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






000
FXUS66 KLOX 250431 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...EVENING UPDATE.
STILL QUITE WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LAX-BFL GRADIENTS (NE TO SW DIRECTION) WERE
JUST UNDER -6MB WHILE THE LAX-BFL GRADIENT (N TO S DIRECTION) WERE
INCREASING TO JUST OVER -6MB. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE WIDE
SPREAD FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO A GOOD PART OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE USUAL WIND PRONE SANTA ANA LOCATIONS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BE FAIRLY STRONG...BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
AND UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CLOCKWISE AROUND EACH OTHER SETTING UP MORE OF A REX BLOCK
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE AS WELL AS
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOCAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE IN THE 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS TODAY`S TEMPS WENT...A RECORD HIGH TEMP WAS RECORDED AT
SANTA MARIA OF 82 DEGREES WHICH TIED THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN
1935. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...WHILE INTERIOR VALLEYS...LOWER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE IN THE 60S.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF 00Z MODEL CAME IN AND ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE COULD BE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS AS IT WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF ALSO
SHOWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RANGING FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST...TO
AROUND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND
MTNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS (MALIBU HILLS 82
MPH...CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH). MUCH OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS WERE
ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AT
BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2330Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT AT KLAX...
KBUR...AND KVNY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/03-25/09Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/07-25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/800 PM...
THE LARGE SWELL DIMINISHED ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ZONES 645/670/763. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TIL 3 AM SUN FOR ZONE 673 AS 10 FT SEAS
CONTINUED THIS EVENING AT THE SOUTH SANTA ROSA ISLAND BUOY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA
MONICA AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN
PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON HARBOR WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN MORNING. WINDS
DID DIMINISH THIS EVENING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUN MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC WAS GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A
300-310 DEGREE FETCH DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SIRARD/30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 250407
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...EVENING UPDATE.
STILL QUITE WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LAX-BFL GRADIENTS (NE TO SW DIRECTION) WERE
JUST UNDER -6MB WHILE THE LAX-BFL GRADIENT (N TO S DIRECTION) WERE
INCREASING TO JUST OVER -6MB. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE WIDE
SPREAD FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR INTO A GOOD PART OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE USUAL WIND PRONE SANTA ANA LOCATIONS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BE FAIRLY STRONG...BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
AND UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CLOCKWISE AROUND EACH OTHER SETTING UP MORE OF A REX BLOCK
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
LA/VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE AS WELL AS
THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO WIND ADVISORIES LATER
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE LOCAL GUSTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE IN THE 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE COAST AND VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FAR AS TODAY`S TEMPS WENT...A RECORD HIGH TEMP WAS RECORDED AT
SANTA MARIA OF 82 DEGREES WHICH TIED THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN
1935. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS...WHILE INTERIOR VALLEYS...LOWER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY WERE IN THE 60S.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE LATEST
NAM-WRF 00Z MODEL CAME IN AND ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE COULD BE THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
REGIONS AS IT WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF ALSO
SHOWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RANGING FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST...TO
AROUND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND
MTNS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS (MALIBU HILLS 82
MPH...CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH). MUCH OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS WERE
ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AT
BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND
ADVISORIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2330Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT AT KLAX...
KBUR...AND KVNY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/03-25/09Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/07-25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING AS A FEW BUOYS WERE STILL SHOWING SWELLS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL HAD
PEAKED LATE THIS MORNING FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL AS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND WILL RANGE 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON
HARBOR WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE INNER WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS
GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH
DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
























000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS66 KLOX 242337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY
ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS
(CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 77 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74
MPH). MUCH OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS WERE ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH AT BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT
CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...LAX-DAGGETT
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION
OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2330Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT AT KLAX...
KBUR...AND KVNY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/03-25/09Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/07-25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING AS A FEW BUOYS WERE STILL SHOWING SWELLS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL HAD
PEAKED LATE THIS MORNING FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL AS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND WILL RANGE 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON
HARBOR WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE INNER WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS
GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH
DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




















000
FXUS66 KLOX 242337
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY
ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS
(CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 77 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74
MPH). MUCH OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS WERE ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH AT BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT
CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...LAX-DAGGETT
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION
OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/2330Z...

THERE IS NO MARINE LAYER AT KLAX THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT AT KLAX...
KBUR...AND KVNY.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/03-25/09Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN
25/07-25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING AS A FEW BUOYS WERE STILL SHOWING SWELLS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL HAD
PEAKED LATE THIS MORNING FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT
CONCEPTION AS WELL AS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AND WILL RANGE 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TO AVALON
HARBOR WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE INNER WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WAS
GENERATING SEAS APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH
DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





















000
FXUS66 KSTO 242336
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies cover the region except for persistent low clouds in
the Central Valley. Offshore flow is working to clear the stratus,
and it looks like much of the remaining cloudy areas in the valley
will get to see at least a little sun before sunset. Temperatures
are very mild in the cloud free areas at the north end of the
valley and in the foothills and mountains. Redding and Red Bluff
are both currently in the mid 70s and will be making a run at 80
this afternoon. Meanwhile, Stockton and Modesto are both still
stuck in the stratus and are currently only in the mid 40s.

Strong upper high transits the area tonight and Sunday, and
offshore flow is forecast to continue. Fog and low clouds are once
again expected to develop and spread north through the valley
tonight, though models continue to indicate a shallower inversion
over the valley due to the offshore flow above the inversion, so
an earlier clearout will be possible on Sunday.

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are in better agreement on the track and timing of
this system. Looks like some precipitation will be possible along
the Sierra beginning Monday night and spreading northward on
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected to be around 6000-7000
feet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. The valley
has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but can`t completely rule
out a sprinkle or light shower.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

The weak low which is expected to develop off Baja California and track
through the Sierra should been mainly out of the area by early
Wednesday. There may be just a lingering light shower over the
Sierra crest with dry weather for the rest of the area. On
Thursday and Friday, a weak trough develops to the south and
becomes an upper low, with some moisture spreading into the Sierra
south of I80. High clouds will be the main affect for most of the
area.

The upper low is forecast to slowly shift southward Saturday
and may spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra
as far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal for the northern Sacramento
Valley under upper ridging. Temperatures further south expected
to be near to a little above normal. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Fog/stratus eroding from the north and still remains in the nrn
San Joaquin Valley as of 200 pm PST. KSCK/KMOD will struggle to
break out prior to sunset. Low clouds/fog returning tonight, but
may stay mostly south of Sutter Buttes as light N wind may impede
spread northward and into wrn Sac Valley. Elsewhere...VFR. Light
winds foggy areas...otherwise north to east winds 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots over Sierra.      JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 242336
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies cover the region except for persistent low clouds in
the Central Valley. Offshore flow is working to clear the stratus,
and it looks like much of the remaining cloudy areas in the valley
will get to see at least a little sun before sunset. Temperatures
are very mild in the cloud free areas at the north end of the
valley and in the foothills and mountains. Redding and Red Bluff
are both currently in the mid 70s and will be making a run at 80
this afternoon. Meanwhile, Stockton and Modesto are both still
stuck in the stratus and are currently only in the mid 40s.

Strong upper high transits the area tonight and Sunday, and
offshore flow is forecast to continue. Fog and low clouds are once
again expected to develop and spread north through the valley
tonight, though models continue to indicate a shallower inversion
over the valley due to the offshore flow above the inversion, so
an earlier clearout will be possible on Sunday.

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are in better agreement on the track and timing of
this system. Looks like some precipitation will be possible along
the Sierra beginning Monday night and spreading northward on
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected to be around 6000-7000
feet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. The valley
has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but can`t completely rule
out a sprinkle or light shower.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

The weak low which is expected to develop off Baja California and track
through the Sierra should been mainly out of the area by early
Wednesday. There may be just a lingering light shower over the
Sierra crest with dry weather for the rest of the area. On
Thursday and Friday, a weak trough develops to the south and
becomes an upper low, with some moisture spreading into the Sierra
south of I80. High clouds will be the main affect for most of the
area.

The upper low is forecast to slowly shift southward Saturday
and may spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra
as far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal for the northern Sacramento
Valley under upper ridging. Temperatures further south expected
to be near to a little above normal. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Fog/stratus eroding from the north and still remains in the nrn
San Joaquin Valley as of 200 pm PST. KSCK/KMOD will struggle to
break out prior to sunset. Low clouds/fog returning tonight, but
may stay mostly south of Sutter Buttes as light N wind may impede
spread northward and into wrn Sac Valley. Elsewhere...VFR. Light
winds foggy areas...otherwise north to east winds 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots over Sierra.      JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 242336
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies cover the region except for persistent low clouds in
the Central Valley. Offshore flow is working to clear the stratus,
and it looks like much of the remaining cloudy areas in the valley
will get to see at least a little sun before sunset. Temperatures
are very mild in the cloud free areas at the north end of the
valley and in the foothills and mountains. Redding and Red Bluff
are both currently in the mid 70s and will be making a run at 80
this afternoon. Meanwhile, Stockton and Modesto are both still
stuck in the stratus and are currently only in the mid 40s.

Strong upper high transits the area tonight and Sunday, and
offshore flow is forecast to continue. Fog and low clouds are once
again expected to develop and spread north through the valley
tonight, though models continue to indicate a shallower inversion
over the valley due to the offshore flow above the inversion, so
an earlier clearout will be possible on Sunday.

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are in better agreement on the track and timing of
this system. Looks like some precipitation will be possible along
the Sierra beginning Monday night and spreading northward on
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected to be around 6000-7000
feet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. The valley
has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but can`t completely rule
out a sprinkle or light shower.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

The weak low which is expected to develop off Baja California and track
through the Sierra should been mainly out of the area by early
Wednesday. There may be just a lingering light shower over the
Sierra crest with dry weather for the rest of the area. On
Thursday and Friday, a weak trough develops to the south and
becomes an upper low, with some moisture spreading into the Sierra
south of I80. High clouds will be the main affect for most of the
area.

The upper low is forecast to slowly shift southward Saturday
and may spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra
as far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal for the northern Sacramento
Valley under upper ridging. Temperatures further south expected
to be near to a little above normal. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Fog/stratus eroding from the north and still remains in the nrn
San Joaquin Valley as of 200 pm PST. KSCK/KMOD will struggle to
break out prior to sunset. Low clouds/fog returning tonight, but
may stay mostly south of Sutter Buttes as light N wind may impede
spread northward and into wrn Sac Valley. Elsewhere...VFR. Light
winds foggy areas...otherwise north to east winds 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots over Sierra.      JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS66 KSTO 242336
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
336 PM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear skies cover the region except for persistent low clouds in
the Central Valley. Offshore flow is working to clear the stratus,
and it looks like much of the remaining cloudy areas in the valley
will get to see at least a little sun before sunset. Temperatures
are very mild in the cloud free areas at the north end of the
valley and in the foothills and mountains. Redding and Red Bluff
are both currently in the mid 70s and will be making a run at 80
this afternoon. Meanwhile, Stockton and Modesto are both still
stuck in the stratus and are currently only in the mid 40s.

Strong upper high transits the area tonight and Sunday, and
offshore flow is forecast to continue. Fog and low clouds are once
again expected to develop and spread north through the valley
tonight, though models continue to indicate a shallower inversion
over the valley due to the offshore flow above the inversion, so
an earlier clearout will be possible on Sunday.

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are in better agreement on the track and timing of
this system. Looks like some precipitation will be possible along
the Sierra beginning Monday night and spreading northward on
Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected to be around 6000-7000
feet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. The valley
has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but can`t completely rule
out a sprinkle or light shower.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)

The weak low which is expected to develop off Baja California and track
through the Sierra should been mainly out of the area by early
Wednesday. There may be just a lingering light shower over the
Sierra crest with dry weather for the rest of the area. On
Thursday and Friday, a weak trough develops to the south and
becomes an upper low, with some moisture spreading into the Sierra
south of I80. High clouds will be the main affect for most of the
area.

The upper low is forecast to slowly shift southward Saturday
and may spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra
as far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal for the northern Sacramento
Valley under upper ridging. Temperatures further south expected
to be near to a little above normal. EK


&&

.Aviation...

Fog/stratus eroding from the north and still remains in the nrn
San Joaquin Valley as of 200 pm PST. KSCK/KMOD will struggle to
break out prior to sunset. Low clouds/fog returning tonight, but
may stay mostly south of Sutter Buttes as light N wind may impede
spread northward and into wrn Sac Valley. Elsewhere...VFR. Light
winds foggy areas...otherwise north to east winds 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots over Sierra.      JClapp


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KREV 242333
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
333 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/OREGON BORDER AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA. THE EASTERLY FLOW IS MOSTLY AFFECTING THE SIERRA
RIDGES WITH GUSTS 45-65 MPH, HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE MODESTLY
SURFACING ON LAKE TAHOE WITH SOME LIGHT CHOP LIKELY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (10-15 DEGREES), WITH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO LINE
WITH SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE, AT LEAST SOUTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH
LINE. ALSO, PRECIPITATION PROGS AND THE POSITION OF THE LOW ARE LINING
UP NOW. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY TUESDAY. AS FAR AS QPF, AT A MINIMUM MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE SIERRA WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OR SO IN THE BASIN. WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING HIGHER AND QPF LIGHT, SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT (FOR THE SIERRA) WITH IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW REMAINING MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PASSES. SNYDER


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
GUSTY EAST WIND POTENTIAL NEXT SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE FROM TUESDAY
WILL HAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY REMNANT
CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLES ARE FOLLOWING
VARIOUS DEGREES OF DIFFERENCES, AND UNFORTUNATELY DO NOT OFFER CLEAR
SUPPORT TO ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE OTHER FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS WANTS TO ABSORB THIS
WAVE WITH THE LARGER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST, TURNING IT INTO
A LARGE, CLOSED OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA. THE EC SPLITS
THE SAME WAVE, TAKING THE STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH ONLY A WEAK PIECE ABSORBING INTO THE PACIFIC LOW.
IT ALSO KEEPS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO HAVE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST,
WHICH REALLY ONLY LEAVES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE OTHER POSSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE STRONG EAST WINDS DEVELOPING
SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND BAJA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 80 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY EAST RIDGE
WINDS CREATING SOME POSSIBLE TURBULENCE FOR SIERRA TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NEVADA TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.


&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 242333
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
333 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AND LOWERED SNOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/OREGON BORDER AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA. THE EASTERLY FLOW IS MOSTLY AFFECTING THE SIERRA
RIDGES WITH GUSTS 45-65 MPH, HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE MODESTLY
SURFACING ON LAKE TAHOE WITH SOME LIGHT CHOP LIKELY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (10-15 DEGREES), WITH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO LINE
WITH SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE, AT LEAST SOUTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH
LINE. ALSO, PRECIPITATION PROGS AND THE POSITION OF THE LOW ARE LINING
UP NOW. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY TUESDAY. AS FAR AS QPF, AT A MINIMUM MODELS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE SIERRA WITH PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OR SO IN THE BASIN. WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING HIGHER AND QPF LIGHT, SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT (FOR THE SIERRA) WITH IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW REMAINING MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PASSES. SNYDER


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
GUSTY EAST WIND POTENTIAL NEXT SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE FROM TUESDAY
WILL HAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY REMNANT
CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLES ARE FOLLOWING
VARIOUS DEGREES OF DIFFERENCES, AND UNFORTUNATELY DO NOT OFFER CLEAR
SUPPORT TO ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE OTHER FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS WANTS TO ABSORB THIS
WAVE WITH THE LARGER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST, TURNING IT INTO
A LARGE, CLOSED OFF LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA. THE EC SPLITS
THE SAME WAVE, TAKING THE STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH ONLY A WEAK PIECE ABSORBING INTO THE PACIFIC LOW.
IT ALSO KEEPS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO HAVE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST,
WHICH REALLY ONLY LEAVES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE OTHER POSSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE STRONG EAST WINDS DEVELOPING
SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND BAJA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 80 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY EAST RIDGE
WINDS CREATING SOME POSSIBLE TURBULENCE FOR SIERRA TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NEVADA TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.


&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS66 KMTR 242328
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING THREE TO TWELVE DEGREES ABOVE
THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE EAST BAY HILLS...SUCH AS
OAKLAND/BERKELEY/HAYWARD...HAVE SEEN THE LARGEST 24 HOUR CHANGE AS
A RESULT OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING THE
VICINITY. TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
TODAYS READINGS WITH NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... SO JUST A QUICK REMINDER THAT A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE WATER.
DO NOT CLIMB ON ROCKS OR COASTAL STRUCTURES JUTTING INTO THE
OCEAN.. AS LARGE BREAKING OR SNEAKER WAVES ARE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
KNOCK YOU INTO THE OCEAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST RETROGRADE BENEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. LATER NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF
LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVE TRENDED BOTH SYSTEMS DRIER AS IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA... NAMELY MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY... HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU SUNDAY
                                  AFTERNOON.
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 242328
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING THREE TO TWELVE DEGREES ABOVE
THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE EAST BAY HILLS...SUCH AS
OAKLAND/BERKELEY/HAYWARD...HAVE SEEN THE LARGEST 24 HOUR CHANGE AS
A RESULT OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING THE
VICINITY. TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
TODAYS READINGS WITH NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... SO JUST A QUICK REMINDER THAT A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE WATER.
DO NOT CLIMB ON ROCKS OR COASTAL STRUCTURES JUTTING INTO THE
OCEAN.. AS LARGE BREAKING OR SNEAKER WAVES ARE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
KNOCK YOU INTO THE OCEAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST RETROGRADE BENEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. LATER NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF
LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVE TRENDED BOTH SYSTEMS DRIER AS IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA... NAMELY MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY... HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST SATURDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU SUNDAY
                                  AFTERNOON.
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA








000
FXUS66 KHNX 242303
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
303 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ABOUND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERMOMETER READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 70S. THE WARMEST LOCATION AS OF THIS WRITING IS
THE RAWS STATION AT DUDLEY RANCH...ELEVATION 3650 FEET...WITH AN
AIR TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE WEATHER IS EQUALLY WARM AND
SUNNY ON THE BEACHES OF CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
THE CHILL OF WINTER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST. TEMPERATURES IN
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO AREA IS GETTING A LUCKY BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUNSHINE IS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60
DEGREES.

A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LID ON LOW
STRATUS IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RIGHT NOW IN
THE SJ VLY...IT MAY NOT TAKE VERY LONG FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO
SETTLE BACK DOWN TO THE SJ VLY FLOOR THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LET THE
ASSESSMENT REST WITH THE EVENING FORECASTERS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE SJ VLY FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE THE INVERSION...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REPEAT OF BALMY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE
AND WHEN LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE SJ VLY BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN. FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
LUCKIER LOCALES THAT TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY END UP A GOOD 8 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER. MEANWHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH EAST TO WEST ORIENTED CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY. WINDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT MIGHT GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT ALSO BE GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE
SIERRA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FORMATION
OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS MATERIALIZING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO A SE
DIRECTION BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO BRING A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA
BY LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE COMING FROM THIS DIRECTION IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN LATE WINTER..BUT THEN AGAIN
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF UNUSUAL. WHATEVER THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SOME WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...IT WILL BE BETTER THAN NOTHING...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL
FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
7K FEET IN THE SIERRA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN OVER CENTRAL CA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SJ VLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...
THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM AGREE ON THIS IDEA AND BRING
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SIMILARLY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM (GENERALLY ABOVE 7K FEET). QPF WITH THIS SECOND
LOW WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS
CANNOT COMPLAIN BECAUSE ANY WATER MOTHER NATURE CAN BRING IS
GOOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND LEAVE ROOM FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN CA.


&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 242303
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
303 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ABOUND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERMOMETER READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 70S. THE WARMEST LOCATION AS OF THIS WRITING IS
THE RAWS STATION AT DUDLEY RANCH...ELEVATION 3650 FEET...WITH AN
AIR TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE WEATHER IS EQUALLY WARM AND
SUNNY ON THE BEACHES OF CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
THE CHILL OF WINTER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST. TEMPERATURES IN
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO AREA IS GETTING A LUCKY BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUNSHINE IS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60
DEGREES.

A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LID ON LOW
STRATUS IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RIGHT NOW IN
THE SJ VLY...IT MAY NOT TAKE VERY LONG FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO
SETTLE BACK DOWN TO THE SJ VLY FLOOR THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LET THE
ASSESSMENT REST WITH THE EVENING FORECASTERS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE SJ VLY FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE THE INVERSION...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REPEAT OF BALMY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE
AND WHEN LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE SJ VLY BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN. FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
LUCKIER LOCALES THAT TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY END UP A GOOD 8 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER. MEANWHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH EAST TO WEST ORIENTED CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY. WINDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT MIGHT GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT ALSO BE GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE
SIERRA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FORMATION
OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS MATERIALIZING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO A SE
DIRECTION BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO BRING A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA
BY LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE COMING FROM THIS DIRECTION IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN LATE WINTER..BUT THEN AGAIN
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF UNUSUAL. WHATEVER THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SOME WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...IT WILL BE BETTER THAN NOTHING...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL
FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
7K FEET IN THE SIERRA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN OVER CENTRAL CA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SJ VLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...
THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM AGREE ON THIS IDEA AND BRING
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SIMILARLY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM (GENERALLY ABOVE 7K FEET). QPF WITH THIS SECOND
LOW WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS
CANNOT COMPLAIN BECAUSE ANY WATER MOTHER NATURE CAN BRING IS
GOOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND LEAVE ROOM FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN CA.


&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 242303
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
303 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ABOUND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERMOMETER READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 70S. THE WARMEST LOCATION AS OF THIS WRITING IS
THE RAWS STATION AT DUDLEY RANCH...ELEVATION 3650 FEET...WITH AN
AIR TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE WEATHER IS EQUALLY WARM AND
SUNNY ON THE BEACHES OF CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
THE CHILL OF WINTER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST. TEMPERATURES IN
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO AREA IS GETTING A LUCKY BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUNSHINE IS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60
DEGREES.

A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LID ON LOW
STRATUS IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RIGHT NOW IN
THE SJ VLY...IT MAY NOT TAKE VERY LONG FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO
SETTLE BACK DOWN TO THE SJ VLY FLOOR THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LET THE
ASSESSMENT REST WITH THE EVENING FORECASTERS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE SJ VLY FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE THE INVERSION...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REPEAT OF BALMY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE
AND WHEN LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE SJ VLY BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN. FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
LUCKIER LOCALES THAT TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY END UP A GOOD 8 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER. MEANWHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH EAST TO WEST ORIENTED CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY. WINDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT MIGHT GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT ALSO BE GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE
SIERRA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FORMATION
OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS MATERIALIZING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO A SE
DIRECTION BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO BRING A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA
BY LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE COMING FROM THIS DIRECTION IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN LATE WINTER..BUT THEN AGAIN
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF UNUSUAL. WHATEVER THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SOME WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...IT WILL BE BETTER THAN NOTHING...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL
FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
7K FEET IN THE SIERRA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN OVER CENTRAL CA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SJ VLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...
THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM AGREE ON THIS IDEA AND BRING
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SIMILARLY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM (GENERALLY ABOVE 7K FEET). QPF WITH THIS SECOND
LOW WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS
CANNOT COMPLAIN BECAUSE ANY WATER MOTHER NATURE CAN BRING IS
GOOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND LEAVE ROOM FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN CA.


&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KHNX 242303
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
303 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES ABOUND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERMOMETER READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 70S. THE WARMEST LOCATION AS OF THIS WRITING IS
THE RAWS STATION AT DUDLEY RANCH...ELEVATION 3650 FEET...WITH AN
AIR TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES. THE WEATHER IS EQUALLY WARM AND
SUNNY ON THE BEACHES OF CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...
THE CHILL OF WINTER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SJ VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST. TEMPERATURES IN
SEVERAL VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRESNO AREA IS GETTING A LUCKY BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUNSHINE IS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60
DEGREES.

A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LID ON LOW
STRATUS IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RIGHT NOW IN
THE SJ VLY...IT MAY NOT TAKE VERY LONG FOR THE LOW STRATUS TO
SETTLE BACK DOWN TO THE SJ VLY FLOOR THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LET THE
ASSESSMENT REST WITH THE EVENING FORECASTERS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE SJ VLY FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE THE INVERSION...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A REPEAT OF BALMY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE
AND WHEN LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE SJ VLY BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN. FOR THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY...AFTERNOON
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
LUCKIER LOCALES THAT TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY END UP A GOOD 8 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER. MEANWHILE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH EAST TO WEST ORIENTED CANYONS OF KERN COUNTY. WINDS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT MIGHT GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT ALSO BE GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS OF THE
SIERRA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FORMATION
OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST IS MATERIALIZING AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO A SE
DIRECTION BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO BRING A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CA
BY LATE MONDAY. MOISTURE COMING FROM THIS DIRECTION IS MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER RATHER THAN LATE WINTER..BUT THEN AGAIN
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF UNUSUAL. WHATEVER THE
CASE...MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SOME WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT...IT WILL BE BETTER THAN NOTHING...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL
FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE SUBTROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
7K FEET IN THE SIERRA WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN OVER CENTRAL CA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SJ VLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...
THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM AGREE ON THIS IDEA AND BRING
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SIMILARLY HIGH
WITH THIS SYSTEM (GENERALLY ABOVE 7K FEET). QPF WITH THIS SECOND
LOW WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT CENTRAL CALIFORNIANS
CANNOT COMPLAIN BECAUSE ANY WATER MOTHER NATURE CAN BRING IS
GOOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND LEAVE ROOM FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN CA.


&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 25 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KEKA 242252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
252 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT
OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS
WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML/JT


&&

.AVIATION...HAZE AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS AT KCEC AND KACV RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS OCCURRING. VFR TO TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINTAIN
REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT KCEC AND KACV RESULTING IN
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT UKI OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.


&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 242252
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
252 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT
OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS
WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML/JT


&&

.AVIATION...HAZE AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS AT KCEC AND KACV RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS OCCURRING. VFR TO TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINTAIN
REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT KCEC AND KACV RESULTING IN
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT UKI OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.


&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KMTR 242226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
226 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:00 PM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING THREE TO TWELVE DEGREES ABOVE
THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE EAST BAY HILLS...SUCH AS
OAKLAND/BERKELEY/HAYWARD...HAVE SEEN THE LARGEST 24 HOUR CHANGE AS
A RESULT OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DOWNSLOPING AND WARMING THE
VICINITY. TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
TODAYS READINGS WITH NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL... WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... SO JUST A QUICK REMINDER THAT A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE WATER.
DO NOT CLIMB ON ROCKS OR COASTAL STRUCTURES JUTTING INTO THE
OCEAN.. AS LARGE BREAKING OR SNEAKER WAVES ARE POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
KNOCK YOU INTO THE OCEAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST RETROGRADE BENEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. LATER NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF
LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE I HAVE TRENDED BOTH SYSTEMS DRIER AS IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE RAIN. THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA... NAMELY MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY... HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ASIDE FROM
LOCAL HAZE OR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...EXPECT VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 PM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY THRU SUNDAY
                                  AFTERNOON.
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 242212
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY
ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS
(CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 77 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74
MPH). MUCH OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS WERE ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH AT BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT
CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...LAX-DAGGETT
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION
OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AFTER 25/20Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/04Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 25/04-25/17Z AND MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT
THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1720Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1551 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 21 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN 25/04-25/20Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 AFTER 25/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FEET
TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

















000
FXUS66 KLOX 242212
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT TODAY
ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES CAUSED NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRED IN THE LOS ANGELES
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS WITH THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS
(CAMP NINE AT 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 77 MPH...MILL CREEK AT 74
MPH). MUCH OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS AND EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS WERE ALSO HIT HARD TODAY WITH A PEAK WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH AT BURBANK...56 MPH AT TONNER CANYON...AND 66 MPH AT
CHEESEBORO.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EARLIER TODAY...ALONG WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THE LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE -7.5
MB THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT -6.6 MB.  DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB...THE SANTA ANA EVENT WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...AND STRONG
WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE
WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING
BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE SANTA
MONICAS) AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY. ONCE THE WIND WARNINGS
EXPIRE...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...LAX-DAGGETT
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND -7 MB ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY IN WARMER
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH. THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SEND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A MAJOR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION
OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
NAM MODEL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN .10 AND .50 INCHES.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL EXTENDED MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF ANY RAIN FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AFTER 25/20Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/04Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 25/04-25/17Z AND MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT
THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1720Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1551 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 21 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN 25/04-25/20Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 AFTER 25/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FEET
TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/300 PM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS TODAY...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


















000
FXUS66 KSGX 242158
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE DECREASE BEGINNING FIRST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...THEN A SECOND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED A BIT FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WRF AND BUFKIT DATA. THE PEAK WIND AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH
SO FAR TODAY. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS REGISTERED A GUST TO 77 MPH SO FAR.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING SURFACE SUPPORT... AND A
CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ARE RESPONSIBLY FOR THIS EVENT.

THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THE MOST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
242115Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS IN THE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...DROPPING OFF GRADUALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 4-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EVENING...THEN DROP OFF SOME AND
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST DROPOFF TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23















000
FXUS66 KSGX 242158
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE DECREASE BEGINNING FIRST IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...THEN A SECOND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED A BIT FROM THEIR PEAK EARLIER TODAY...BUT
SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE WRF AND BUFKIT DATA. THE PEAK WIND AT SILL
HILL IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH
SO FAR TODAY. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS REGISTERED A GUST TO 77 MPH SO FAR.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING SURFACE SUPPORT... AND A
CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ARE RESPONSIBLY FOR THIS EVENT.

THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF THE MOST OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
AREAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
242115Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 KTS IN THE WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
115 PM...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...DROPPING OFF GRADUALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
115 PM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 4-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONG AND
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EVENING...THEN DROP OFF SOME AND
BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST DROPOFF TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 242045
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH ANY PERIODIC GUSTS RELAXING JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET...HOWEVER SPEEDS UP TO 12KT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KHNX 241850
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1050 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015


.UPDATE...MAX TEMPS LOWERED A BIT IN THE SJ VLY FOR TODAY
WHILE VALLEY MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS.


.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN CA. DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE SJ VLY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW QPF...WHATEVER PRECIP THE CENTRAL CA
GETS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.  DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WAS SLOW TO FORM THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT AT 1017Z /0217 PST/...THE VISIBILITY AT THE
COALINGA AIRPORT /KC80/ HAD FALLEN BELOW A QUARTER MILE AND LOS
BANOS AND HANFORD WERE AT A HALF MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z
/NOON PST/ TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE AND FORM A REX BLOCK OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. THE BLOCK WILL BECOME TILTED AS THE LOW DEEPENS...WITH THE
RIDGE OPENING AND DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO ENTRAIN A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH...AND THE REMAINS
OF THE REX BLOCK WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA
CARRYING THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF
THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS AS WELL AS THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000 FEET...THEN LOWER TO
6500-7000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEXT FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY JANUARY 24 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




000
FXUS66 KHNX 241850
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1050 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015


.UPDATE...MAX TEMPS LOWERED A BIT IN THE SJ VLY FOR TODAY
WHILE VALLEY MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS.


.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION IN THE SJ VLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN CA. DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS
WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE SJ VLY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW QPF...WHATEVER PRECIP THE CENTRAL CA
GETS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.  DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG WAS SLOW TO FORM THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT AT 1017Z /0217 PST/...THE VISIBILITY AT THE
COALINGA AIRPORT /KC80/ HAD FALLEN BELOW A QUARTER MILE AND LOS
BANOS AND HANFORD WERE AT A HALF MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z
/NOON PST/ TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE RIDGES AND THROUGH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE AND FORM A REX BLOCK OVER CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. THE BLOCK WILL BECOME TILTED AS THE LOW DEEPENS...WITH THE
RIDGE OPENING AND DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO ENTRAIN A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH...AND THE REMAINS
OF THE REX BLOCK WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA
CARRYING THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF
THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS AS WELL AS THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000 FEET...THEN LOWER TO
6500-7000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEXT FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 20Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY JANUARY 24 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-24       73:1953     41:1992     54:2000     24:1898
KFAT 01-25       70:2005     42:1895     57:1969     24:1949
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898

KBFL 01-24       77:1946     37:1949     53:2009     21:1937
KBFL 01-25       77:1924     39:1999     57:1969     22:1893
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



000
FXUS66 KLOX 241751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...AS EXPECTED...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SEEING SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH CAMP NINE REPORTING A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 76 MPH...AND MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH.
WINDS ALSO RAMPING UP ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH IMPRESSIVE
WINDS BEING REPORTED IN THE VALLEYS. AS OF 9 AM...BURBANK AIRPORT
REPORTING A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 44 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO
AT 62 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS MODEL
CROSS SECTION SHOWING STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND SUBSIDENCE. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALSO PEAKING THIS
MORNING AT -7.5 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD SANTA
ANA EVENT...AND STRONG WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY (INCLUDING BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
IN FAVORED AREAS. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL LIKELY BRING TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND DEBRIS.

THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AFTER 25/20Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/04Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 25/04-25/17Z AND MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT
THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1720Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1551 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 21 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN 25/04-25/20Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 AFTER 25/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11
FEET TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS
IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/900 AM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES















000
FXUS66 KLOX 241751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...AS EXPECTED...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SEEING SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH CAMP NINE REPORTING A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 76 MPH...AND MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH.
WINDS ALSO RAMPING UP ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH IMPRESSIVE
WINDS BEING REPORTED IN THE VALLEYS. AS OF 9 AM...BURBANK AIRPORT
REPORTING A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 44 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO
AT 62 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS MODEL
CROSS SECTION SHOWING STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND SUBSIDENCE. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALSO PEAKING THIS
MORNING AT -7.5 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD SANTA
ANA EVENT...AND STRONG WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY (INCLUDING BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
IN FAVORED AREAS. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL LIKELY BRING TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND DEBRIS.

THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AFTER 25/20Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/04Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 25/04-25/17Z AND MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT
THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1720Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1551 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 21 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN 25/04-25/20Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 AFTER 25/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11
FEET TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS
IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/900 AM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KLOX 241751
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...AS EXPECTED...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SEEING SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH CAMP NINE REPORTING A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 76 MPH...AND MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH.
WINDS ALSO RAMPING UP ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH IMPRESSIVE
WINDS BEING REPORTED IN THE VALLEYS. AS OF 9 AM...BURBANK AIRPORT
REPORTING A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 44 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO
AT 62 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS MODEL
CROSS SECTION SHOWING STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND SUBSIDENCE. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALSO PEAKING THIS
MORNING AT -7.5 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD SANTA
ANA EVENT...AND STRONG WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS LIKE THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY (INCLUDING BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
IN FAVORED AREAS. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL LIKELY BRING TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND DEBRIS.

THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONRECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SHIFTS NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE MID LEVEL MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AFTER 25/20Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 25/04Z THEN MODERATE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
BETWEEN 25/04-25/17Z AND MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT
THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1720Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1551 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 21 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 BETWEEN 25/04-25/20Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LLWS LIKELY ABOVE 020 AFTER 25/07Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11
FEET TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS
IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/900 AM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES














000
FXUS66 KSGX 241739
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WINDY...INDEED...OVER THE SOUTHLAND TODAY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...ARE ALSO WINDY...WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH THIS MORNING.

THIS IS ALL DUE TO BOTH GOOD SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE...WITH A 1038
MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND A CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP
FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING STRONG WINDS ALOFT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SHOWS
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY...WITH A DROPOFF INTO SUNDAY. THIS LARGE
CHANGE IN WIND MAGNITUDE BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY IS ALSO NOTED ON
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL. THE REDUCTION IN WINDS MOST
AREAS INTO SUNDAY LOOKS GOOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY
LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAP ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241630Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND CANYONS
AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF
THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA.
SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE  STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23












000
FXUS66 KSGX 241739
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WINDY...INDEED...OVER THE SOUTHLAND TODAY. SILL HILL IN THE SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS CLOCKED A GUST OF 89 MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. OTHER AREAS SUCH AS FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA
MOUNTAINS...ARE ALSO WINDY...WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH THIS MORNING.

THIS IS ALL DUE TO BOTH GOOD SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE...WITH A 1038
MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND A CUTOFF LOW TYPE OF SETUP
FOR GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING STRONG WINDS ALOFT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SHOWS
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY...WITH A DROPOFF INTO SUNDAY. THIS LARGE
CHANGE IN WIND MAGNITUDE BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY IS ALSO NOTED ON
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL. THE REDUCTION IN WINDS MOST
AREAS INTO SUNDAY LOOKS GOOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY
LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAP ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241630Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS. ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND CANYONS
AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF
THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA.
SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE  STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23













000
FXUS66 KMTR 241733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
933 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A FEW
SELECT LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW
IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER... WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER... SO JUST A QUICK
REMINDER THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE
WATER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL
UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR
AREA... BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... LEAVING THE AREA
DRY. LATER NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD CONCEIVABLY BRING LIGHTS
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... BUT IT
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR WHAT IS
TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ASIDE FROM
LOCAL HAZE OR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...EXPECT VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:29 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                   THROUGH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
              SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 241733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
933 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A FEW
SELECT LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW
IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER... WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER... SO JUST A QUICK
REMINDER THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE
WATER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL
UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR
AREA... BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... LEAVING THE AREA
DRY. LATER NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD CONCEIVABLY BRING LIGHTS
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... BUT IT
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR WHAT IS
TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ASIDE FROM
LOCAL HAZE OR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...EXPECT VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:29 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                   THROUGH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
              SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 241733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
933 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A FEW
SELECT LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW
IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER... WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER... SO JUST A QUICK
REMINDER THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE
WATER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL
UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR
AREA... BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... LEAVING THE AREA
DRY. LATER NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD CONCEIVABLY BRING LIGHTS
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... BUT IT
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR WHAT IS
TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ASIDE FROM
LOCAL HAZE OR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...EXPECT VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:29 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                   THROUGH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
              SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA







000
FXUS66 KMTR 241733
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
933 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A FEW
SELECT LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW
IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER... WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER... SO JUST A QUICK
REMINDER THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE
WATER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL
UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR
AREA... BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... LEAVING THE AREA
DRY. LATER NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD CONCEIVABLY BRING LIGHTS
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... BUT IT
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR WHAT IS
TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ASIDE FROM
LOCAL HAZE OR FOG CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...EXPECT VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:29 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE WEST. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND
JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                   THROUGH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
              SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 241723
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
923 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with areas of night and morning valley low clouds and
fog through Monday. Temperatures expected to remain well above
normal through early next week in fog-free areas. Light
precipitation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.Discussion...
High pressure aloft centered just off the NorCal coast is forecast
to strengthen over the region today. Strong inversion over the
Central Valley still resulting in extensive fog and stratus
through much of the valley (up to just south of Chico this morning
- tops are around 1000 ft). Skies are clear except for the valley
fog and most visibilities in the fog areas are around 1/4 or
better, but a few lower visibilities continue so we`ll keep the
dense fog advisory going for now.

Offshore gradients have strengthened compared to 24 hours ago and
are now up to around 9.5 mbs from Reno to Sacramento. Some breezy
north to east winds are occurring just above the inversion with
local gusts in the 30-40 mph range, so there`s hope for an earlier
dispersion of the stratus through much of the area. Strong
offshore gradients forecast to continue tonight and Sunday and
model cross-sections point toward shallower inversions tonight and
Sunday. We`ll continue to monitor and may update for milder temps
if we clear out earlier than expected.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A strong upper level ridge is centered over the eastern Pacific
and shifting eastward toward California. Skies are mostly clear
across the area, except for the persistent low clouds and fog that
is covering much of the Central Valley from Chico to south of
Fresno. This fog is locally dense in spots, and a dense fog
advisory will continue through late this morning for those
locations. We are seeing some locally breezy north/east winds over
the mountains, but they are of relatively little impact.

As high pressure builds into the area, locations that remain fog-
free (Northern Sacramento Valley, mountain locations) will be
experiencing unseasonably warm conditions this weekend. NAEFS
ensembles show that the Northern Sac Valley in particular will see
highly anomalous temperatures...they could be within a degree or
two of high records. Farther south...the fog will again be slow to
erode, with some locations not clearing out until the afternoon
today (if at all). From about Yuba City southward, highs will
remain around or below 60 degrees today, and perhaps a bit warmer
Sunday.

The upper ridge shifts east of California on Monday, with some
synoptic cooling expected that day. We should also begin to see
increasing high cloud cover later on in the day as a system off
the Baja California coast moves northward.

Computer models are finally coming into better agreement on the
track and timing of this system. Looks like some precipitation
will be possible along the Sierra beginning late Monday and
spreading northward on Tuesday. Snow levels are currently expected
to be around 6000-7000 ft, but only minor snow accumulations are
expected. The Valley has lower odds of seeing precipitation, but
can`t completely rule out a sprinkle or light shower. Dang

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Remnants of weak upper low forecast to move out of Southern
California early next week forecast to be somewhere over the
northern Great Basin by early Wednesday. This will bring a slight
threat of light showers to the northern mountains and Sierra
Cascade range but this threat will end quickly as high pressure
pushes back northward over the west coast. Despite variable cloud
cover on Wednesday, daytime highs are expected to remain a few to
several degrees above normal under warm airmass under the ridge.
Extended models show another upper low setting up off the Baja
coast by Thursday similar to the system forecast for earlier in
the week. This system would likely begin spreading high cloudiness
over the north state as early as Thursday but daytime highs still
likely to climb a bit under upper ridge and light northerly winds.
The upper low off Baja is forecast to slowly shift inland Friday
and Saturday remaining over Socal and the southwest U.S but may be
able to spread a few very light showers northward up the Sierra as
far north as Tahoe. The rest of the forecast area will see
variable high cloudiness going into next weekend with daytime
highs remaining well above normal under upper ridging along the
west coast.

&&

.Aviation...
Valley Low clouds/fog south of about KCIC with IFR/LIFR conditions
expected through about 19Z. Then conditions gradually improving
through 21Z. Sutter Buttes exposed through fog indicates cloud
tops between 010 and 015. Low clouds/fog returning tonight, but
may stay mostly south of Sutter Buttes. Elsewhere, VFR. Light
winds foggy areas, otherwise north to east winds 5 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots over Sierra. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
dense fog advisory until 11 am pst this morning carquinez strait
and delta...central sacramento valley...northern san joaquin
valley...southern sacramento valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KLOX 241722
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...AS EXPECTED...STRONG SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SEEING SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH CAMP NINE REPORTING A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 79 MPH...MALIBU HILLS AT 76 MPH...AND MILL CREEK AT 74 MPH.
WINDS ALSO RAMPING UP ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH IMPRESSIVE
WINDS BEING REPORTED IN THE VALLEYS. AS OF 9 AM...BURBANK AIRPORT
REPORTING A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...VAN NUYS AT 44 MPH...AND CHEESEBORO
AT 62 MPH. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING AS MODEL
CROSS SECTION SHOWING STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND SUBSIDENCE. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT ALSO PEAKING THIS
MORNING AT -7.5 MB. DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND
SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD
SANTA ANA EVENT...AND STRONG WINDS IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OFFSHORE WINDS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS
LIKE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY (INCLUDING BURBANK).

HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY...WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65 AND 75 MPH
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
IN FAVORED AREAS. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL LIKELY BRING TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND DEBRIS.

THE MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. PLEASE SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11
FEET TODAY FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT CONCEPTION AS WELL AS
IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT
TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOUTH OF PALOS VERDE TO
SANTA CATALINA ISLAND WILL END THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/900 AM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY...RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THE STRENGTH OF SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE CURRENT STATE OF THE FUELS. LIVE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHILE GREEN-UP OF THE FINE FUELS HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/DB
AVIATION/MARINE...30/RAT
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES











000
FXUS66 KMTR 241656
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
856 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES DUE TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A FEW
SELECT LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOMORROW
IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER... WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BEACH FARING WEATHER... SO JUST A QUICK
REMINDER THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... SNEAKER
WAVES... AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE SHORE. ENJOY THE
BEACHES... BUT BE SURE TO REMAIN VIGILANT OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND
DO NOT TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE
WATER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS AGREE TO A REASONABLE DEGREE THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL
UNRAVEL AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR OUR
AREA... BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... LEAVING THE AREA
DRY. LATER NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH SPLIT
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
ASCENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FORMS A CUTOFF LOW AND UNDERCUTS A NEWLY FORMED RIDGE.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD CONCEIVABLY BRING LIGHTS
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... BUT IT
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR WHAT IS
TYPICALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:15 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED INLAND. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES
LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS66 KLOX 241403
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








000
FXUS66 KLOX 241403
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY ARE THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY NOT
QUITE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE ON FRI IN MOST
COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA AIRPORT...BUT
MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AND WILL
PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE
EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. MODELS
TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES THERE WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES









000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. INLAND VALLEYS NORTH OF
UKIAH ARE SEEING SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING TODAY. ALONG THE COAST IT HAS
REMAINED MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS OCCASIONAL LOWER
CONDITIONS WHEN THE WINDS EASE UP. OFFSHORE FLOW IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR FOG
THAT DOES FORM. THIS AFTERNOON THE NAM BL MOISTURE IS INDICATING
THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING ONTO THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS THEY PUSH BACK
OUT. NIGHTSAT (11-3.9U) SHOWED STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURED IT SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PICKS UP. FOR NOW JUST HINTED AT
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND SCT CIGS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
ONCE VISIBLE SAT IS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS UP
LATE TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



000
FXUS66 KEKA 241223 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER,
EASTERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS. A CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS WARMER AIR MASS THUS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WERE MAINTAINED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KML

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. INLAND VALLEYS NORTH OF
UKIAH ARE SEEING SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING TODAY. ALONG THE COAST IT HAS
REMAINED MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS OCCASIONAL LOWER
CONDITIONS WHEN THE WINDS EASE UP. OFFSHORE FLOW IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS MORNING AND THAT SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR FOG
THAT DOES FORM. THIS AFTERNOON THE NAM BL MOISTURE IS INDICATING
THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING ONTO THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS THEY PUSH BACK
OUT. NIGHTSAT (11-3.9U) SHOWED STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURED IT SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PICKS UP. FOR NOW JUST HINTED AT
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND SCT CIGS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
ONCE VISIBLE SAT IS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW PICKS UP
LATE TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. MKK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING GENTLE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS IS CREATING SOME SHORT
PERIOD WAVES...AROUND 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SO
SHORT PERIOD WAVES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CLOSE TO SHORE.

SUNDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE  SWITCH...BUT
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN GENERAL
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL.

THERE IS ALSO A LONG PERIOD WAVE...AROUND 10 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF 16 TO
17 SECONDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD START TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE ONLY AROUND 2 FT AT 20 SECONDS...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 4 FT AT 18 SECONDS ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY POSE A SMALL SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA




000
FXUS66 KMTR 241213
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
413 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. VFR.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED INLAND. A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES
LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 241200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
400 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:35 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KSTS HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 PM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR
BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER/CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA





000
FXUS66 KMTR 241200
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
400 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:55 AM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE 24 HOURS AGO WITH WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS REMAIN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS. WHILE THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES NEAR THE
DELTA...DO NO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-18
DEG C THROUGH SUNDAY AND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING IS ABLE TO OCCUR. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY.

MEANWHILE...THE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN WESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE IN THE WEEK. AGAIN...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS...AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTENT ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:35 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KSTS HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 PM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR
BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JANUARY WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER/CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KLOX 241159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY AREA THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY
NOT TO QUITE THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN LOCATIONS FROM THOSE ON FRI IN
AREAS IN COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR
POSSIBLY SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE
80S AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR  SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN.
MODELS TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY AREA THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY
NOT TO QUITE THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN LOCATIONS FROM THOSE ON FRI IN
AREAS IN COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR
POSSIBLY SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE
80S AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR  SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN.
MODELS TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY AREA THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY
NOT TO QUITE THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN LOCATIONS FROM THOSE ON FRI IN
AREAS IN COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR
POSSIBLY SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE
80S AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR  SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN.
MODELS TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KLOX 241159
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
311 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLER WEATHER MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DECENT WIND EVENT UNFOLDING EARLY THIS
MORNING. KLAX TO KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ALMOST 6 MB
OFFSHORE...WITH KLAX TO KTPH GRADIENTS ALMOST 12 MB OFFSHORE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A SWATH OF VERY GOOD SUBSIDENCE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND GUSTY WINDS
HAVE ALSO PUSHED INTO THE VLYS...INCLUDING THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY...WHERE A SPOTTER IN GLENDORA ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 45
MPH. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 12Z-15Z...LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PEAK SOMEWHAT LATER...AND THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE PEAK OF
THIS WIND EVENT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 70 TO 75 MPH IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES...AND TO BETWEEN 60 TO 65 MPH IN THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
L.A. AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THE VTU COUNTY COAST...IT WILL BE A
STRONG WIND ADVISORY EVENT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
MPH EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE
INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THEY AREA THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED ONCE THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THERE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD REACH LOW END HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVELS THERE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE REMAINING
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING (THOUGH LIKELY
NOT TO QUITE THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS TODAY)...ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN LOCATIONS FROM THOSE ON FRI IN
AREAS IN COASTAL AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OR
POSSIBLY SLIGHT COOLING IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS...MTNS AND DESERTS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR SUNDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLO CAL POLY...SBA AIRPORT AND SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BUT MOST RECORDS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 25TH ARE WELL INTO THE
80S AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF REACH.

THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY WILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATE SUN
NIGHT AND MON MORNING...SO SKIES WILL RAPIDLY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES BY MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AT
LOW LEVELS AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
SFC...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS L.A. AND VTU
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE DOWN 10
DEGREES OR MORE FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ALSO DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THE WRF IS THE MOST BULLISH...AND BRINGS SOME
DECENT RAIN OR  SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE EC IS THE DRIEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN.
MODELS TYPICALLY DO A POOR JOB WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SYSTEM THAT
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WINTER...AND OFTEN TEND TO UNDERDO
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER WRF...WHICH SHOWS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU...AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1100Z...

AT 0940Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING IN STRENGTH
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VSBYS
AT KPRB THRU ABOUT 16Z TODAY...VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THE PERIOD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. MODERATE LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MORNING FORECAST. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA
AND SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES TO CATALINA ISLAND. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





000
FXUS66 KSGX 241133
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SUPPORT FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
WINDS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. BEYOND THE WARNING
AREAS...ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241020Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK OUT
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH
AS THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND
CANYONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE BEGINNING MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









000
FXUS66 KSGX 241133
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SUPPORT FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
WINDS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. BEYOND THE WARNING
AREAS...ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241020Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK OUT
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH
AS THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND
CANYONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE BEGINNING MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









000
FXUS66 KSGX 241133
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SUPPORT FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
WINDS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. BEYOND THE WARNING
AREAS...ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241020Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK OUT
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH
AS THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND
CANYONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE BEGINNING MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









000
FXUS66 KSGX 241133
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WARM WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD AND DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SUPPORT FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
WINDS THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND ADJACENT INLAND VALLEY AND COASTAL
FOOTHILL AREAS AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. BEYOND THE WARNING
AREAS...ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
AND BELOW THE BANNING PASS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COMBINED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
WILL TAP ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
241020Z...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK OUT
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC GUSTS 35-55 KTS.
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS IN THE MOST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH
AS THROUGH AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE WSW OF WEST FACING PASSES AND
CANYONS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL SLOPES AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE WINDS OVER AND SW/W OF THE MTNS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KONT...KCNO...KAJO...KRIV...AND KSNA. SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER KCRQ AND KSAN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

&&

.MARINE...
220 AM...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
220 AM...A LARGE...LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GENERATE
SURF OF 5-7 FEET WITH SETS UP TO 9 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG WEST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH...BETWEEN LAGUNA BEACH AND SAN CLEMENTE...AND SOUTH OF
DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
GREATER DECREASE BEGINNING MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING THE STRONGEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 80 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING IN STRENGTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST INLAND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
     SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS66 KMTR 241108 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
307 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK...FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL
PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...AS EXPECTED...OUR
WARMING TREND GOT UNDERWAY TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS
PREDICTING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
EXAMPLE...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM FROM 13-14 DEG C TODAY
TO 16-18 DEG C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS 19 C BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AN AIRMASS THAT WARM IN JANUARY WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN ALL-TIME JANUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IF THE AIRMASS ALOFT
WERE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE HILLS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST
OF THESE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT AND
NOT PRODUCE QUITE ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE AT THE SURFACE THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. IN ANY CASE...THERE SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO AT LEAST PUSH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S...WHICH WOULD MEAN AT
LEAST A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
INDICATING THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY START OUT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FORECAST TO START COOLING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT WARM THINGS UP FAST ENOUGH AT THE
START OF A WARM EVENT. THEREFORE...AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED NUDGING SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPS UP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST PLACES...PUTTING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH SUNDAY`S FORECAST
HIGHS...OR IN SOME CASES EVEN A BIT WARMER.

ONE OTHER WEATHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE SHORT-TERM IS FOG.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES. LIGHT FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
NEAR THE DELTA AS WELL. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT`S
LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTY WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. IF THIS FOG PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME ON SATURDAY...PLACES LIKE CONCORD...NAPA AND SAN RAFAEL
MAY END UP FALLING WELL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:35 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KSTS HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 PM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR
BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JAN WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER/CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










000
FXUS66 KMTR 241108 CCA
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
307 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK...FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL
PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...AS EXPECTED...OUR
WARMING TREND GOT UNDERWAY TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS
PREDICTING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
EXAMPLE...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM FROM 13-14 DEG C TODAY
TO 16-18 DEG C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS 19 C BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AN AIRMASS THAT WARM IN JANUARY WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN ALL-TIME JANUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IF THE AIRMASS ALOFT
WERE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE HILLS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST
OF THESE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT AND
NOT PRODUCE QUITE ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE AT THE SURFACE THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. IN ANY CASE...THERE SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO AT LEAST PUSH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S...WHICH WOULD MEAN AT
LEAST A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
INDICATING THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY START OUT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FORECAST TO START COOLING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT WARM THINGS UP FAST ENOUGH AT THE
START OF A WARM EVENT. THEREFORE...AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED NUDGING SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPS UP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST PLACES...PUTTING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH SUNDAY`S FORECAST
HIGHS...OR IN SOME CASES EVEN A BIT WARMER.

ONE OTHER WEATHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE SHORT-TERM IS FOG.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES. LIGHT FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
NEAR THE DELTA AS WELL. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT`S
LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTY WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. IF THIS FOG PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME ON SATURDAY...PLACES LIKE CONCORD...NAPA AND SAN RAFAEL
MAY END UP FALLING WELL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:35 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KSTS HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 PM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR
BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE JANUARY WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JAN WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER/CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA









000
FXUS66 KMTR 241106
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK...FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL
PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...AS EXPECTED...OUR
WARMING TREND GOT UNDERWAY TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS
PREDICTING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
EXAMPLE...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM FROM 13-14 DEG C TODAY
TO 16-18 DEG C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS 19 C BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AN AIRMASS THAT WARM IN JANUARY WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN ALL-TIME JANUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS IF THE AIRMASS ALOFT
WERE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE HILLS INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST
OF THESE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALOFT AND
NOT PRODUCE QUITE ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE AT THE SURFACE THE FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT. IN ANY CASE...THERE SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO AT LEAST PUSH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S...WHICH WOULD MEAN AT
LEAST A FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
INDICATING THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY START OUT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FORECAST TO START COOLING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS DO NOT WARM THINGS UP FAST ENOUGH AT THE
START OF A WARM EVENT. THEREFORE...AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
INCLUDED NUDGING SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPS UP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST PLACES...PUTTING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH SUNDAY`S FORECAST
HIGHS...OR IN SOME CASES EVEN A BIT WARMER.

ONE OTHER WEATHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN THE SHORT-TERM IS FOG.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WITH SOME DENSE PATCHES. LIGHT FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
NEAR THE DELTA AS WELL. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT`S
LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTY WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. IF THIS FOG PERSISTS IN THESE AREAS FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME ON SATURDAY...PLACES LIKE CONCORD...NAPA AND SAN RAFAEL
MAY END UP FALLING WELL SHORT OF FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:35 PM PST FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT KSTS HOWEVER...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:00 PM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED INLAND. HOWEVER...A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKERS NEAR
BARS...SHOALS AND JETTIES LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HERE IS THE LIST OF RECORDS ALONG WITH THE ALL TIME WARMEST
JANUARY READINGS AND THE LATEST YEAR THEY OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA...

LOCATION       TODAY       SUNDAY       JAN WARMEST
KENTFIELD      69/1974     77/1934      79/1962
SAN RAFAEL     75/1948     70/2014      82/1962
NAPA           72/1924     83/1899      85/1962
SAN FRANCISCO  74/1948     74/1899      79/1962
SFO AIRPORT    72/1948     68/2011      73/2014
OAKLAND        71/2014     73/2014      78/2014
OAK AIRPORT    72/1948     70/2014      77/2014
RICHMOND       71/1974     69/2011      76/1962
LIVERMORE      73/1975     73/1911      77/1911
MOUNTAIN VIEW  76/1948     72/2014      76/1948
SAN JOSE       76/1948     71/2014      79/1962
GILROY         74/1968     77/2014      80/2014

NORTH CENTRAL COAST...

MONTEREY       74/2006     78/1942      84/2014
SANTA CRUZ     76/1988     80/1899      84/2014
SALINAS        76/2011     78/2014      87/2014
SNS AIRPORT    80/1948     78/2014      86/2014
KING CITY      78/1968     77/2014      86/1976

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM SONOMA
              COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: BLIER/CANEPA
CLIMATE: CANEPA

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA






000
FXUS66 KMTR 241106
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
306 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK...FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL
PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST FRIDAY...AS EXPECTED...OUR
WARMING TREND GOT UNDERWAY TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM
MONTEREY BAY SOUTH. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT-TERM IS
PREDICTING JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
EXAMPLE...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST